SB Nation - Josh Johnson

BBTF's ZiP Projections for the Marlins

craig — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 18:30:58 -0000

The Baseball Think Factory put out their yearly computer projections for the Marlins. Here is a tidbit of their intro:

The Marlins, given an ownership willing to invest in the team, have a lot of talent. They have a player who may very well be the best player in baseball over the next 10 years. Some decent supporting cast in the offense and some high-upside hitting prospects. Josh Johnson was healthy, throwing 209 innings, and Ricky Nolasco had one of the best 5.06 ERA seasons around. But Marlin fans still have no reason to believe that they're seeing the start of something rather than the end of something. Even Ramirez's extremely reasonable 6-year, $70 million contract doesn't necessarily mean that he'll be a Marlin for the rest of the contract. The Marlins continuing to win 85-90 games relies on Beinfest and Hill continuing to spin straw into gold faster than Jeff Loria can give it away, which is a very difficult task.

If you want to check the whole thing out, go here:

2010 ZiPs Projections - Florida Marlins

As with all projections they have their fallacies, but that doesn't mean they aren't fun to look at during the offseason. And sometimes they are even more fun to look at after the season is over and do the "What were they thinking?" analysis.

Alfredo Amezaga non-tendered

craig — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 05:13:14 -0000

The Marlins did not tender a contract to Alfredo Amezaga, it is official.

Alfredo is now a free agent.

Apparently they were concerned with the fact that he is still recovering from microfracture knee surgery and that he hasn't started a running program. The Marlins are leaving the door open to the possibility of re-signing Alfredo later on, but there is a problem with that. The problem is the Marlins cannot enter into negotiations with Alfredo again until March 2, 2010. That is the day when players are mandated to report to spring training. Which gives him a lot time to prove to the other clubs he is good to go while the Marlins are sitting on the sidelines.

The salsa warm up leading, life of the clubhouse, pulse of the team, unbelievable defensive specialist, fan favorite Alfredo Amezaga may never be a Marlin again. It is a sad day. Oh sure, the move that the club made is completely understandable and was the right move. But still. That really doesn't make you feel all that much better.

In other news, the Marlins reached a one-year deal with Ronny Paulino and tendered contracts to Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Cody Ross, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Leo Nunez, Renyel Pinto and Anibal Sanchez.

MLB Trade Rumors: Josh Johnson for Justin Smoak and Neftali Perez??

raygu — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:00:23 -0000

by Wilfredo Lee - AP

2 months ago: Florida Marlins starter Josh Johnson winds up as he delivers a pitch during the first inning of the first baseball game of a doubleheader against the Philadelphia PhilliesTuesday, Sept. 22, 2009 in Miami. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

View full size photo »

I was surprised to read that the Texas Rangers offered their two best prospects, Justin Smoak and Neftali Perez for the Marlins ace pitcher Josh Johnson. I am not sure any other team could top that offer of prospects for 2 years of JJ.

Here is what ESPN's Keith Law had to say on the offer:

"As good as Johnson is, that seems like too much to offer given the remaining years of control and the fact that Smoak and Feliz are two of the top 10 prospects in the game and two players Texas' front office prizes very highly. Smoak is a switch-hitting first baseman with patience & power from both sides, and Feliz has already shown what he can do in relief with a chance that he can still start due to his easy velocity."

The Marlins are in a semi-rebuilding mode after dealing Jeremy Hermida, and on the verge of dealing second baseman Dan Uggla. I say semi-rebuilding because they are a young team that is about to get younger once prospects Logan Morrison and Michael Stanton make it to the big league club in the next year or so.

I can't see why they rejected the Rangers solid offer. Should they have pulled the trigger on that deal, they could feature a lineup in 2010-2011 as follows:

Logan Morrison-LF

Michael Stanton-RF

Justin Smoak-1B

This team would be tough to beat on paper come 2011. If the Marlins feel they can compete in 2010, then you have to keep Josh Johnson. But, come July 31st and they are 10 games out, they should re-kindle these talks.

Poll

Should the Marlins have pulled the trigger on the Rangers offer?

Winter Meetings Primer, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:15:52 -0000

More photos » by Jennifer Simonson - AP

Browse more photos »

Sure, it's a rumor-filled week that generally leads to nothing. But it's still a rumor-filled week, and to me that equals fun.

Twins Needs

Second Base
Third Base
Starting Pitcher
Bench Depth
Joe Mauer Extension

Between LEN III and Joe C., the Twins have been tied to a few names already this off-season: Mark DeRosa, Rich Harden, Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn and Orlando Hudson. There has been little speculation fueled by comments from the front office, although this has been commonplace during the Bill Smith era. Now entering his third Winter Meetings and in the best position to win since taking on the role of General Manager, it will be interesting to see if the rumors lead to anything concrete this season.

Obviously the Twins are still in the market for at least one infielder after picking up J.J. Hardy a few weeks ago, and the recent (and early) signings of Chone Figgins (four years, $36 million), Placido Polanco (three years, $18 million) and Marco Scutaro (two years, $12.5 million with an option for more) seem to set the market for starting infielders. Considering the combination of age and history I feel like all three teams overpaid, on either years or dollars or both.

Last season at this time there was a lot of talk surrounding Casey Blake and Garrett Atkins, and there's been nothing quite like that this season. This front office, and I've said it before, plays things notoriously close to the vest. Sure, it might not make for interesting discussion fodder, but it serves the best interests of the team.

A vast majority of the time all of the rumors and speculation lead to absolutely nothing during the week of the Winter Meetings. The common theme is for teams to read each other and, if possible, lay a foundation for things to happen over the following weeks. But that doesn't mean we won't hear some interesting tidbits over the next few days.

Names of Interest (after the break)

Adrian Beltre - With the Phillies signing Polanco, one of the Twins main competetors for the free agent third baseman may have just taken themselves out of the market. The biggest issue surrounding Beltre is Scott Boraas and his $10 million per year asking price. Even for his glove, I'm not sure Minnesota is going to fork out that kind of money for Beltre.

Mark DeRosa - He's also been rumored to be asking for nearly $10 million per season. Yikes.

Josh Johnson - The Marlins have said that Johnson won't be traded this off-season, but it's always hard to tell what's truth and what's posturing. If his name comes up this week, or at anytime over the next couple of months, I'll be listening.

Rich Harden - Along with Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard, it will be interesting to see how much teams are willing to gamble on these guys. Will the Twins maintain their interest in Harden?

Jed Lowrie - With the Red Sox the proud owners of a Scutaro, will he be on the block?

Carl Pavano - Will he accept arbitration?

Dan Uggla - The Marlins second baseman has been linked to about half of the teams in baseball at some point over the last couple of months, although no team has been connected more often than the Giants. His offense as a second baseman is superior, and in spite of his defense is still probably a three-win player.

In Closing

The Winter Meetings this season aren't set to be quite as interesting as they were the last couple of seasons, if only because the first thing on everyone's mind isn't really who else the front office can bring in but who can they sign to an extension. "General discussions" between the Twins and Mauer have begun, but nothing hard core so far, so stay tuned.

It's an exciting time of year. Be sure to keep checking back here for the latest rumblings and grumblings.

Poll

Make the call: what, if anything, will happen this week at the Winter Meetings for the Minnesota Twins?

Marlins game plan going into Winter Meetings

craig — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:09:23 -0000

Joe Frisaro covers the Larry Beinfest press conference.

State of Marlins update

Hayden Penn?! Really?! Look, I don't care who the Marlins look at it, heck, they could invite me to camp. Sure, I would be cut before lunch on the first day of workouts in the spring, but so what. However, do they really think Hayden Penn is going to crack the starting rotation? Maybe I am missing something here.

In other news, as long as the front office believes they can sign Josh Johnson to a long term contract, he will remain with the Marlins.

Click on the link and read the whole thing, which should take you the better part of a minute.

Josh Johnson still with the Marlins

craig — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:23:12 -0000

The front office is saying that Josh Johnson will be a Marlin next season.

Count on Josh Johnson being a Marlin when the 2010 season opens.

As speculation continues, seemingly on a daily basis, as to where Johnson will be next year, Marlins general manager Michael Hill added some clarity during a radio interview.

Appearing as a guest on Marlins flagship station 790 The Ticket's "Hot Stove Show" on Saturday, Hill was asked if Johnson would be with the team next season.

"Yes, I can say with certainty, yes," Hill said.

Naturally, I want JJ back. But forgive me if I don't find solace in the words above. This is the same club that Loria told Carlos Delgado to his face and in front of the media that he would be back for the next season. Of course, he wasn't.

Every Marlins player is up for trade consideration, there are no exceptions. JJ included. But some come with a very high price tag, when I say a high price tag, I mean a HIGH PRICE TAG. Josh is one of those. If someone is willing the mortgage the farm, then maybe he is gone.

I have no idea whether the Marlins are posturing or if they think they still have a chance to sign Johnson to a long term contract. Of course, maybe they think we can win the division title next season and in order to do so, we need JJ for that to happen. In the latter case they would be right.

The answers will soon follow. Welcome to the offseason.

Twins Weekend Notes: Thanksgiving Edition

Jesse — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:06:44 -0000

Mmmm...tryptophan...

Everyone finally waking up from that Thursday afternoon coma? Fantastic. There've been a few interesting notes of intrigue over the last few days, some of which have some concern with our Minnesota Twins, so let's check them out...

The highest-profile player discussed over the last few days? Rich Harden. MLB.com's Kelly Theiser says the Twins have interest, which is good to hear. Naturally any bets on the oft-injured ace would have to be hedged by the contract. I do like the idea of bringing in Harden, on the right deal, because at the very least he gives Minnesota a little more depth with a high-end arm. If and when he would eventually go down, the Twins would still have all the same arms available to replace him.
Miguel Angel Sano? No. Miguel Angel Jean? Si. From the same mailbag, Theiser informs us that our Domincan uber-prospect will be using his real surname, as opposed to his mother's maiden name. Batting second, for the Minnesota Twins, Miguel Jean...
We've talked about Dan Uggla here at some length, as well as Ricky Nolasco, but there were rumors this week that the Marlins were trying to unload Josh Johnson as well. As Ken Rosenthan notes those rumors have been dispelled, but for a few hours there my mind was working overtime.
Joe C. flashes a preview of the Twins' spring training schedule.
LEN III talks with Jake Mauer about a couple of good pitchers in the lower levels of the farm system.
On Tuesday Pat Neshek updated his blog with some info on how his rehab is coming. It sounds like he threw a simulated game of about 30pitches, and he was happy with his slider and his increasing velocity.
Over at MLB Trade Rumors this morning I found out Nick Johnson is looking for a two-year deal. There's no room for him in Minnesota, which is too bad because I wouldn't mind gamlbing on his infamous OBP skills.

Over in the UK they don't actually celebrate Thanksgiving...shocker, I know. But yesterday I hosted and made my first ever Thanksgiving dinner for a bunch of friends, and it actually went pretty well. After the break are just a couple of pics I took...it didn't turn out as awful as I thought it would!

The Brits thoroughly enjoyed the lefsa...

MEAT. A small turkey and a decent size ham. The ham was awesome.

Okay I didn't make these. I bought these frozen. No lies.

MLB Trade Rumors: Marlins to Deal Josh Johnson

raygu — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

4 months ago: Florida Marlins' Josh Johnson pitches against the Colorado Rockies in the second inning of a baseball game in Miami, Friday, Aug. 14, 2009. The Marlins won 6-5. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

Browse more photos »

It appears the Marlins may not wait till July 2010 to deal ace starting pitcher Josh Johnson per BP's John Perrotto's tweet last night:

Keep hearing #Marlins are very willing to trade Josh Johnson right now for the right package.

His availability may delay the Blue Jays in dealing Roy Halladay as Johnson will probably have the same suitors as Halladay. JJ is also cheaper than Halladay in terms of salary, and is younger. But, the price tag will be pretty high to obtain Johnson's services, as they should be.

Who will be interested in dealing for Johnson? All 29 teams in MLB, but not all 29 teams would be able to, or willing, to give up the package needed to obtain Johnson.

The Winter Meetings start on December 7th, and this rumor will make them all the more interesting.

MLB Trade Rumors: Josh Johnson to be Traded??

raygu — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:00:21 -0000

by Luis Alvarez - AP

3 months ago: Florida Marlins' Josh Johnson pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)

View full size photo »

This past weekend, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reported that the Marlins and the agent for starting pitcher Josh Johnson have reached an impasse in their contract negotiations. It appears the Marlins were looking to lockup Johnson and buyout Johnson's final two arbitration years. But Johnson's agent Matt Sosnick is looking for big money. So both sides have agreed to move on.

Here is what Frisaro wrote:

Without getting into specific dollar figures, Sosnick said the Marlins offered three years with a club option for a fourth.

Johnson's camp was hoping the deal would at least match what Kansas City's Zack Greinke signed before the 2009 season. The Royals' ace, recently named the American League Cy Young Award winner, signed for four years at $38 million.

Sosnick goes on to say the following about Johnson's future in Florida:

Sosnick feels 2010 will be Johnson's last with the Marlins, if the team wants to maximize his trade value. Since the Marlins aren't revealing their intentions, that is purely speculation.

In the past, the Marlins retained pitchers A.J. Burnett and Carl Pavano in their final arbitration years, and then received Draft pick compensation when both opted for free agency. On the flip side, Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera were dealt before their final years of arbitration.

"We disagreed on the years, which is fair," Sosnick said. "As far as our feelings are concerned, and I feel very strongly that this is true, that Josh either signs a long-term deal now with the Marlins, which is not going to happen, or he gets traded after this year and the Marlins can get some value back.

This tells me the Marlins won't be listening to too many offers for starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco anytime soon. With Johnson reaching free agency in 2011, dealing outfielder Jeremy Hermida to Boston in early November, and the fact that the Marlins are looking to deal second baseman Dan Uggla, the team will be in a bit of a rebuilding stage in 2010 and 2011.

It is way too early to speculate on what teams will be interested in Johnson, but there will certainly be a long line of suitors including the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs among many others. The Marlins will be smart to see what the Indians got for Cliff Lee with a year and a half left on his contract and start listening to offers come the July 2010 trade deadline.

I am sure Larry Beinfest will not waste this opportunity like J.P. Ricciardi did with Roy Halladay last July.

Poll

Will the Marlins be smart and deal Josh Johnson in July 2010 to maximize their return?

Yes, Beinfest is one of the best GMs in the business.

114 votes

No, the Marlins will be in the wildcard hunt and not be able to trade JJ.

64 votes

178 votes | Poll has closed

Long-term contract talks with Josh Johnson hits roadblock

craig — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:54:39 -0000

Long-term contract negotiations with Josh Johnson may have come to an end.

"Josh obviously wanted to do something to stay long-term with the Marlins, but it doesn't look that way now,' his agent, Matt Sosnick, said today.

Johnson, 25, is entering his second winter of arbitration but was hoping to sign a four-year contract worth at least $40 million.

The Marlins were believed to be willing to go no longer than three years for about $22 million.

When the sides could not resolve their differences, the Marlins said they preferred to go year-to-year.

"They made it very clear they only wanted to talk about a one-year deal,' Sosnick said.

Don't know if the Marlins offer is accurate but if it is, 3 year/$22 million is a pretty low ball offer. Team Johnson is locked on a four-year deal and the Marlins aren't budging from a three-year deal. I can understand not wanting to go more than three years with a pitcher, they tend to get hurt. While it makes for a nice rule of thumb, however, every now and then an exception is called for. And this would seem to warrant such an exception. To get Johnson for a 4-year, $40 million deal, you are locking in a number one starter below the projected fair market price. I would be willing to roll the dice on this one and I think the Marlins should, but they don't ask me.

If the two sides continue to refuse to give and it becomes obvious that there is no possibility of a deal being reached, the Marlins need to trade JJ as soon as possible, like before spring training. The risk of waiting until after the 2010 season is that he could get hurt, or maybe even have an off-year, thus lowering his trade value. Right now, Johnson is extremely valuable and impact pitchers are hard to come by in the offseason. If the team is going to trade him anyway, it makes sense to do so when you know you can get a high value for him.

Hopefully this is all posturing and the two sides will continue the talks later on, but I wouldn't count on it.