SB Nation - Matt Lindstrom

Reactions to the Astros' transactions, by the numbers

DyingQuail — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:17:40 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Little know fact: Never has one player's $15 million contract ever caused so much vitriol, disdain, or such a fracas of negativity—about 86% of which was unwarranted (mine included). Congratulations, Brandon Lyon.

Browse more photos »

There are a few sources that I trust and value for their penchant/availability for sabermetric insight/resources. It's no secret that TCB has a sabr-slant with a streak of Astros-homerism mixed in as well. I imagine that such is the plight for an sabr-fan. Not surprisingly, the Astros have taken a beating this week in the majority of the places I referenced, but there have been a few that shrugged their shoulders with relative indifference, possibly bordering on distanced approval.

In spite of my professed sabr-leanings, as I'm sure you've gathered, I'm prone to a more subjective gut reaction that I'll then cloud with number's based evidence, and roll from there. Eventually, the emotions will die down, and I'll filter through all the statistical evidence (Usually clack will do that for me off the bat. Clack is like my sabr-fan sensei.). Consider this post a post-moretum recap from the various statistical voices who have either denounced or did not denounce (I really don't think anyone truly approved of any deal, just couldn't find a strong reason to disapprove).

I'll break the reactions down by three categories: The Indifferent, the bad, and the ugly, but move in reverse order. After the jump

The Ugly:

Per usual, the pundits at Fan Graphs didn't hesitate to lambast one of their favorite whipping boys: Ed Wade. Dave Cameron called Brandon Lyon's signing the worst of the winter, citing luck inflated stats, mediocre FIP, and value that won't match his contract. Below, Zach Levine takes him to task, and clack has already fleshed out the weaknesses of Cameron's argument here in a few places. Matthew Carruth also decreed the Pedro Feliz signing as terrible, reasoning:

Addressing the hole at third base is a good idea for Houston, but you don’t address a hole by filling it with air. You already have plenty of air; why bother paying money to import premium air from Philadelphia?

Whether their arguments resonante as truth, depends on how much faith you want to put in the numbers that they cite. While I initially was on board with Lyon as being a miserable signing, I've backed off that stance since, and I never saw the Feliz deal in such a negative light. There's a certain level of sabr-dogmatism that seems to filter through these two assessments of the Ed Wade's moves from the week and that's never a healthy approach.

It should be noted that Fan Graphs did approve of the Matt Lindstrom signing at the time.

The Bad:

Beyond the Box Score didn't exactly crucify Ed Wade like Cameron and Carruth did at Fan Graphs, but they were far from giving Ed Wade credit. They were able to read positives into all three transactions of the week, but also a lot to cringe at, too. While caustic of the Lyon signing, they approved of the Lindstrom deal, and could, in the end, see some positive in the Feliz signing.

Zach Levine crunched the numbers that Cameron cited for Lyon and came to a far more neutral assessment of Lyon's penchant to produce for the Astros. Levine pretty much sees the potential for upside in all three of the Astros transactions the week, but can't find a lot to smile at, either. Reading through his summary of the transaction, I glean a disapproval, but nowhere is their the vitriol that Fan Graphs ladled on the deals:

The Astros have to hope that was some AL jitters or something and not some mistrust of his stuff as the clock struck 30. Carry that mediocre walk rate, which he'd never had before, and return that BABIP to average, and you've got yourself a very mediocre pitcher for a killer price....With Feliz's 35th birthday coming in April, Astros fans have to hope that steady OPS doesn't begin to decline and that he's still got it defensively, though I can't imagine the Astros will lean on him for 158 games like the Phillies did last year....As for Matt Lindstrom, that seems like a fine move, and people I trust who have seen the minor leaguers have told me the haven't given up anything they couldn't afford to, and I think the price is right and his production will level off from last year's bad ERA.

Levine kind of straddles both the Bad and the Indifferent, but I feel like he sits more in the Bad camp than the Indifferent.

The Indifferent:

Professor of economics, JC Bradbury is currently at work on a book about the Hot Stove. He's already published on book on economics and baseball, too. So when he renders an opinion on the matters of player valuation, my ear's perk up. Bradbury, of all the sabr-slanted writers I've read, came the closest of any to giving a implicit seal of approval to Ed Wade's deals.

For both Lyon and Feliz, Bradbury believes the Astros will actually garner surplus value from the contracts. For Lyon, he even stated that the deal seems right. Not that it's a good deal, but that price tag fits the purchase. Feliz, the same thing.

Finally, Fan Graphs did like the Lindstrom signing, so I'll tally it in the Good.

***********

There are more links that could fit in the bad and the ugly categories, but they would just be repetitions of the same arguments—basically. We've already noted all the relevant projections for all the players that will soon be donning an Astros uniform here, and in all it looks like this week has resulted in a marginally improved baseball team (if you consider the fact that the Astros couldn't afford to hold onto Valverde and Tejada). Does this mean Ed Wade did a good job this week? As fans, we seem to be leaning towards the indifferent to bad categories. Considering that Ed Wade had a limited budget, little chance of gaining premium pieces, has upgraded the defense, and at least filled the bull pen with average to slightly above-average relievers for around $11.5 million in extra spending, I don't think the week was ugly.

Whether it was bad or indifferent, though, is hard to say—at least by the numbers. Arguments can be made for either cause, it just depends on how you want to spin it: As a sabr-slanted observer, or as a fan looking for hope in 2010.

Ed Wade and the Astros' busy week: How would you grade it?

DyingQuail — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:36:20 -0000

via cache.daylife.com What grade will Ed Wade receive?

View full size photo »

It's been a crazy few days. Tension mounted. Emotions ran high. Ed Wade made headlines. The dust has officially settled in Indianapolis, but not so much around these parts. Tomorrow, I imagine that Matt Lindstrom, Brandon Lyon, and Pedro Feliz will be paraded in front of the media and don their Astros jerseys.

As the people who've weaseled their ways into the publishing content at this place, we gotten to be outspoken about our feelings. Front and center so to speak. I'll quickly recap them:

On Pedro Feliz (whom clack deemed to be not a bad signing):

Yes, that defense has deteriorated with his age and yes, he doesn't get on base. But, Feliz is a much better player at this point than Blum and can provide a good stopgap until the club feels Chris Johnson is ready to go.

On Brandon Lyon (who made me lose sleep):

If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. But for the Astros—especially after the Lindstrom trade—Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?

On Matt Lindstrom (who won Ed Wade good will):

Who else were the Astros going to get for three years at controlled money? None of the free agents were going to sign for that little over that many years, nor would the Astros want to commit to any of them for that long.

Opinions, outside of ours, varied around these parts—and rightfully so. But let's not let those varied opinions, and our respective rights to them, stand in the way of forming some kind of consensus opinion on the subject. You have to reactions we had and the links where you can review the various discussions surrounding them; basically everything you'd ever need to evaluate Ed Wade's big week. So what say you?

Beyond The Box Score On The Astros Signing Brandon Lyon, Pedro Feliz & Acquiring Matt Lindstrom

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

Browse more photos »

After watching former Astro, LaTroy Hawkins received $7.5 million dollars from the Brewers, Ed Wade did the unthinkable and handed DOUBLE that to Brandon Lyon on a three-year deal. I don't want to beat up on Brandon Lyon here because it's not his fault that Wade saw a 2.86 ERA in 2009, and said "that's the guy I want to pay $5 million dollars annually until 2012."

Lyon is your average run of the mill relief pitcher. He's seen better days in the past, and has moonlighted as a closer every so often, however, overall he's pretty mediocre. With a career ERA of 4.20 and a near matching FIP of 4.23, you could easily find similar talent wasting away in Triple-A somewhere (Winston Abreu, R.J.?).

Lyon is pretty consistent, and will give you 60+ innings out of the bullpen; that's about the most positive thing I can say about that. His strikeout rates aren't impressive and he walked 3.5 batters per nine in 2009. His sexy ERA is clearly due to a lower than normal BABIP (.229) and a higher than normal for him LOB% (80.1). He did earn a decent 0.7 WAR last season, but 57 other relief pitchers earned at least that last season (min 50 relief innings).

Signing Lyon isn't a bad move. Had this been a two-year deal worth something like $2-3 million dollars, nobody would've had a big problem with that. But that would've been too normal.

The Astros also acquired Matt Lindstrom, who along with Lyon will essentially replace Hawkins and Jose Valverde at the back end of the bullpen. Unlike the Lyon deal, I actually like the acquisition of Lindstrom. With the Rays being one of the rumored places for him before the trade, I brushed on some of his history and I can see why teams would take a chance on him.

30 in February, Lindstrom has the velocity scouts swoon over. However, that hasn't turned into the strikeout rates one would expect. His 7.55 career K/9 is not that impressive and he has walked over four batters per nine in each of the last two seasons. His ERA of 5.89 is inflated by a .342 BABIP, but his career FIP of 4.22 suggests that he is pretty much Brandon Lyon for less.

Being arbitration eligible meant that he was getting too rich for the Marlins blood and instead of non-tendering him, they simply passed him off to Houston for two non-descript prospects. Lindstrom's HR/FB jumped to 9.3% in 2009 after keeping it under 3% for two seasons. I guess it was just regression making up for lost time. A ground-ball pitcher, I would guess his rates would settle in the 6-8% range, but pitching in Houston isn't going to help that much. Again, Lindstrom isn't anything special, but his ERA should keep him from being too expensive in arbitration.

I guess our pal Ed Wade is allergic to making two good deals in a week as he took whatever good will gained in acquiring Lindstrom and threw that away in another head scratching signing. It's no secret that the Astros had a black hole at third base, but that's been the case for a few years now. Passing the duties from one utility man to another for the past few seasons, Wade seemingly put a stop to that and got his man.

Thanks to a one-year, $4.5 million dollar deal, the Astros third base problem will be solved by Pedro Feliz. Yes, the same Pedro Feliz who hit .266/.308/.386 in 625 PAs last season. In fact, he has not posted a wOBA over .307 in any of the last five seasons. Sadly, that shouldn't be a surprise since his career wOBA is .306.

Feliz has made a nice living from having an above-average glove at third base, but his bat is terrible. Not to mention, he'll be 35 years-old soon after opening day 2010. Did I mention that Happy Pete also has a career .288 OBP against RHP which just happens to cover like 65% of the league?

Some where Melvin Mora and his 89 kids are hoping that there's one more Ed Wade Christmas miracle to be had this winter.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:20:18 -0000

by Brian Snyder - AP

Yes, Randy Wolf is a Brewer now.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while remembering that "port" is "left."

Welcome to day one of the Randy Wolf era (FanShot). He'll make $29.5 million over the next three seasons, plus an option for 2010. Reaction to the deal has come from everywhere:

Miller Park Drunk credits the Brewers for signing the best available free agent.
Master Reid of Quevedo at the Buffet says it's a gamble the Brewers had to take at this point.
Erik Manning of FanGraphs explains why this deal shouldn't be compared to the Jeff Suppan signing.
Jordan also offered his thoughts on that topic, and reasonable expectations for Wolf.
Adam McCalvy noted that Wolf's deal is the third richest for a pitcher in team history.
Jorge Says No! says the Brewers are "going for it" in 2010.
Babes Love Baseball thinks the Brewers overpaid for him.
Aaron Gleeman says he'd rather have the deal Rich Harden signed with the Rangers.
Wolf's contract inspired Rob Neyer to write a two parter on the economics of player salaries.
Meanwhile, Diamond Leung has a quote from Wolf about the divorce situation with the McCourts that might have led to Wolf's departure from Los Angeles.

But, the Brewers weren't done there: They decided to burn a little extra money by overpaying for bullpen help. The result is a two-year, $7.5 million deal for LaTroy Hawkins (FanShot). The move ensures the Brewers will have at least three pitchers in their bullpen earning more than $3.5 million next season (Hoffman, Riske and now Hawkins), as well as two pitchers with closing experience, both of which are 37 or older. Two more links on Hawkins: one good, one bad.

Aaron Gleeman notes that Hawkins has posted a 3.35 ERA over the last six seasons, in 379 innings.
Brian McTaggart quoted Hawkins as being "very disappointed" about leaving Houston, which is pretty much exactly what you don't want to hear from a guy you just threw a lot of perfectly good money at.

Both signings and a few other topics came up in Doug Melvin's MLB Network interview last night, which Tristarscoop chronicled for us, in case you missed it.

Since then, Doug Melvin's had an interesting 12 hours or so. First, a valet lost the keys to his car. Then, after presumably getting a ride back to the meetings, Melvin raised his offer to Craig Counsell. Melvin seems confident a deal will get done, and if he's saying so, that means he's pretty sure. Counsell has also spoken to the Reds, but it doesn't sound like there's much happening there.

Meanwhile, what once looked like a sure thing still isn't done: Mark Mulder remains unsigned, and now the Royals are also showing interest in his services.(h/t MLB Trade Rumors)

The Brewers also filled one more spot on their 40 man roster, selecting Indians lefty Chuck Lofgren in the Rule 5 Draft (FanShot). In a later post, Baseball America called him one of the best stories taken. It sounds like he's had a rough couple of years, but he's a big, athletic lefty who throws hard (90-93), so he's exactly the kind of pitcher the Brewers should be seeking out to work with Rick Peterson.

Can't get enough Triple G? Batter's Box Interactive has some photos from a Gregg Zaun at bat in Toronto last season. Zaun was also the starting point for today's Thursday Thinker: stop back for that at noon.

You still have a few hours to cast your vote for a second baseman on our BCB All Decade Team. Voting for that position closes at 4 today. Prince Fielder officially became the first Brewer elected to the team yesterday. Voting for a shortstop opened yesterday and closes at 4 tomorrow. Voting at third base, perhaps the most ~~depressing~~ interesting choice on the team, will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Astros: Acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL, and signed Brandon Lyon to a three year, $15 million deal.
Mariners: Signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. (FanShot) Also re-signed infielder Josh Wilson.
Mets: Re-negotiated their contract with Henry Blanco, due to concerns over the health of his shoulder.
Orioles: Acquired Kevin Millwood from the Rangers for reliever Chris Ray and a PTBNL.
Padres: Released pitcher Eulogio de la Cruz.
Rangers: Agreed to terms on a one year, $7.5 million deal with Rich Harden, with a club option for 2011 and acquired Mike Lowell from the Red Sox for catcher Max Ramirez.
Rays: Acquired Rafael Soriano from the Braves for reliever Jesse Chavez.
Red Sox: Acquired Boof Bonser from the Twins for a PTBNL or cash.
Royals: Released Mike Jacobs and pitcher John Bale
Tigers: Designated pitcher Freddy Dolsi and catcher Dusty Ryan for assignment.

Two former Brewers continue to search for work, and for once I'd rather have Jay Gibbons. Jason Kendall has received a two-year offer from the Royals, while Gibbons is drawing interest from the Dodgers.

While some players are looking for new teams. J.J. Hardy is busy making friends with his. He recently played in Harmon Killebrew's golf tournament, and the Hall of Famer had some nice things to say about him.

Easily the biggest trade at the meetings so far has been the three way deal involving the Tigers, Yankees and D-Backs. A lot of people are burying Arizona for giving up on Max Scherzer, but Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts and I agree: The Diamondbacks might come out ahead in this deal, trading a pitcher with an unsure future for two that might pitch in their rotation this season. Meanwhile, no one seems to mention that the Yankees traded two starters and a center fielder for one player.

Ever wonder what folks in minor league front offices do during the offseason? I don't know, but the Timber Rattlers' premiere episode of The Offseason would suggest they have some time on their hands.

With Jason Kendall gone, I guess we probably won't be talking about plunkings as much, and that's probably ok. With that said, Jeremy Greenhouse of The Baseball Analysts has a look at the probability of getting hit by a pitch, and what matchups and velocities make a batter most likely to get plunked.

It's been a pretty busy week at the Winter Meetings, and the flow of information has been dizzying at times. Just imagine how fast information would flow out if the internet was working.

Still looking for a gift for someone this holiday season? I might have a suggestion for you. Boys of Summer is a documentary chronicling Robert Cochrane and his father's summer long road trip to visit all 30 major league parks. The film is now available on DVD for the first time, with all proceeds going to the Michael J. Fox Foundation to help support research on Parkinson's Disease.

On this day in 1986, the Brewers sent Tim Crews and Tim Leary to the Dodgers for first baseman Greg Brock. Brock would go on to hit .261/.348/.387 over five seasons as a Brewer.

Happy birthday today to Doug Henry, who turns 46. Henry pitched the first four seasons of his major league career (1991-1994) as a Brewer, racking up 61 saves.

Drink up.

MLB Trade Rumors: Rafael Soriano and Brandon Lyon= 2010 Closers?

raygu — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:00:30 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

14 days ago: FILE - In this March 15, 2009, file photo, Atlanta Braves pitcher Rafael Soriano throws to a Houston Astros batter during a spring training baseball game in Kissimmee, Fla. Soriano made a surprise decision a on Monday, Dec. 7, 2009, to accept salary arbitration. The Braves last week signed closer Billy Wagner and setup man Takashi Saito. The expectation was Soriano and Mike Gonzalez would decline salary arbitration offers and become free agents. Instead, Soriano is still with Braves and can't be traded prior to June 16 without his consent. (AP Photo/Rob Carr, File)

View full size photo »

Well, it appears the Rays and Astros have new closers for 2010. The Rays have traded reliever Jesse Chavez to the Braves for closer Rafael Soriano.

In addition, the Astros have signed Tigers reliever Brandon Lyon, after closer Jose Valverde elected to decline arbitration and losing out on signing LaTroy Hawkins. They also traded some prospects to the Marlins for Matt Lindstrom. I presume that Lyon will be the Astros closer in 2010 as he signed a 3-year $15 million deal with the 'Stros. But, I would draft Lindstrom as well, as Lyon is not the most consistent closer. Then again, Lindstrom's 2009 season was downright terrible.

Lindstrom saved 15 games in 2009, with an ERA of 5.89 and a WHIP of 1.64. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.64, walking 4.5 batters per 9 innings, and an extremely low LOB% OF 62%. Lyon, on the other hand, had a very solid 2009 season going 6-5 with 3 saves, a 2.86 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.

Lyon has never been a big strikeout pitcher as he had a 6.5 K/9 ratio, and a 3.5 BB/9 ratio. What worries me about Lyon is he had a extremely low BABIP of .229 and an extremely high LOB% of 80%. Should these ratios regress to his career averages of .305 BABIP and 71% LOB, his ERA and WHIP will suffer, and the blown saves will accumulate. Remember he lost his closer job in 2008 with the Diamondbacks by blowing several saves late in the season as the DBacks were battling for the NL West division title.

But the big question is, where is elsewhere for Valverde and Mike Gonzalez? In the National League, there are few choices-maybe the Phillies, or the Marlins if they want an upgrade at closer, or the Nationals, but they have prospect Drew Storen who is close to ready.

Poll

Can Brandon Lyon duplicate his 2009 season with the Astros in 2010?

Marlins Trade Matt Lindstrom

craig — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:25:29 -0000

As I am sure you all know by now the Marlins traded Matt Lindstrom to Astros for a couple of warm bodies.

The Marlins get right-hander Robert Bono and shortstop Luis Bryan from Houston. The player to be named will be Houston's first pick in today's Rule 5 draft, according to ESPN.com.

My favorite part of this was the quote from the Astros general manager, Ed Wade.

"Our guys think Bryan is going to be a really good big league player, but he's 19 years old and X number of years away from the big leagues," Wade said. "Bono has a chance to pitch in the big leagues and we recognize it impacts the depth of those young arms, but if we have a chance to add a kid who could close and who has the stuff Lindstrom has, you have to give up something to get something."

Uh huh, so says the man who sits atop of the organization, who is so good at evaluating young talent, that they have the worse farm system in all of the baseball world.

So did the Marlins get the best of Houston's crappy farm system? Not quite. This via twitter from Baseball America's Ben Badler.

Neither Robert Bono nor Luis Bryan, the two guys the Marlins got from Houston for Lindstrom, would have made the Astros top 30

Here is the deal, the Marlins gave Lindstrom away for free. Now maybe one of the guys we got in return will surprise, but I sincerely doubt it.

Rule 5 Applesauce - Rangers Sign Harden, Worrying About Pelfrey, Boras Speaks And Twitter Is Still Ridiculous

James Kannengieser — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:45:08 -0000

Former Rule 5 picks include Dan Uggla and our own Johan Santana, so you never know what gems might be found.

Meet the Mets

The Mets pick 7th in today's Rule 5 Draft. Check out Mark's list of potential picks from a few weeks back. MLBTradeRumors also offers up a preview.

Scott Boras says the Mets have the financial resources to sign any player they choose. He's probably right. The organization's real problem is determining which players to sign.

John Harper recently perpetuated the myth that Mike Pelfrey took a major step backwards in 2009, despite evidence that suggests otherwise. Ted Berg and Matt Cerrone weigh in on the topic.

Metstradamus riffs on the debunked Pat Burrell rumor and the possibility of signing Elmer Dessens. This had me laughing:

Funny how neither Dessens, Blanco, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Baerga, Mackey Sasser, nor anybody else with "intangibles" needed to be in the room to mentor Oliver when he signed that $36 million contract. Weird, huh?

Patrick Flood offers up his take on the inevitable Bengie Molina/Mets relationship.

Mets Police comments on the Sports Illustrated All-Decade team, which Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana were named too. MP also implies he would rather have Wally Backman on his team instead of Jeff Kent due to their respective effects on team chemistry. I'll take the probable Hall of Famer.

Around the NL East

Jayson Stark tweets that the Braves are only asking for prospects in return for Derek Lowe.

The Marlins traded Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL.

Federal Baseball wraps up the Nationals activity at the winter meetings.

The Good Phight is holding out hope for a Roy Halladay trade. Halladay, Lee and Hamels would be frightening and probably unstoppable.

Around MLB

The Royals offered Jason Kendall a two year contract. Umm, what?

The Mariners signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Walkoff Walk has some advice for M's manager Don Wakamatsu regarding Patterson.

The Astros signed Brandon Lyon for three years, $15 million. Seems a bit excessive.

Mike Cameron's agent says his client has a special place in his heart for Seattle. Too bad the Mariners already have an awesome center fielder.

The Rangers signed Rich Harden and traded Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for Chris Ray. Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times weighs in.

Ed Wade gets his relievers, but what did the Astros get?

DyingQuail — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:41:22 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Congrats man, you're average in every way, but you just got paid.

Browse more photos »

So an hour or so ago I said that I would have to wait until tomorrow to process the day's events, but I lied. A solid hour of tossing and turning while visions of mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers danced in my head lead me back to my laptop. Mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers, that's kind of what we got today. Not so much in Lindstrom, but definitely in Lyon. Now I can't help but think Dave Cameron is being a little hyperbolic in his assessment of Brandon Lyon, but everything he says is correct. Lyon isn't good. Period.

He's average in every respect. Compare him to anyone else already in the Astros bullpen and you'd lose him in the haze of mediocre total-skill sets. Alberto Arias and Chris Sampson have high ground ball percentages. Jeff Fulchino is just a clydesdale that is dependable. Matt Lindstrom has life his is stuff that portends to better things to come. Sammy Gervacio has an awesome delivery that gives him difficult to distinguish stuff. Brandon Lyon literally is average in every respect. Pick a stat or a trait. Look at it. It'll be average.

Lyon will definitely go down as a not good signing. Will it ever be a signing that's cited more than two years after the contract is completed? No. Carlos Lee was a bad signing, so was Barry Zito. Lyon is just a poor signing—for the Astros. If any other team inked Lyon to this deal, it probably wouldn't resonate as much as it does right now. There's the Ed Wade loves relief pitching too much factor. There's the luck inflated ERA factor (thank God they're upgrading defense a SS, we think). And there's the this team doesn't have the payroll flexibility to afford this factor. Those three factors make this signing laughable to outsiders and repugnant to Astros fans.

But I don't think it's bad because of in 2011 and 2012, just 2010. We never had enough money to start with this winter. Ed Wade had just made a pretty savvy little trade with the Florida Marlins to bring in someone who would add depth to a bullpen that didn't need a closer because the Astros won't be good enough to justify needing a true closer, much less over paying for one (which they didn't even end up doing).

Really, he could have just stopped there. I would have continued to actually be content and happy with the state of this team for at least a few hours. And then the malaise of being an Astros fan could have set back in when I realized I was happy not because my team had gotten better, but because my team didn't do anything to make themselves measurably worse off.

But now it appears as though they have.

Can we afford Miguel Tejada back? Nope. Can we—realistically—afford a worthwhile fill in at 3B? Probably not. At this point, offering LaTroy Hawkins arbitration has never looked so good to me.

Now, I'm left wondering the following questions: Why did we have to move so fast to sign a relief pitcher who could be a closer? There were still options out there; we didn't really even need someone else (i.e. another closer-esque reliever is a luxury, not a necessity). Why move so fast on Lyon and offer him everything he wanted? Why not try to whittle him down in price or years (preferably price, but only scantly)? What will Ed Wade use to justify Lyon versus someone with promise and an ability to add worthwhile value to the team...like say Mike Gonzalez?

(Please don't let it be his 2009 ERA, please, please, please, please don't. I won't be able to take it. Something of mine will break after I hurl it against something if I awake to an Ed Wade quote about Lyon's ERA.)

For a brief moment it felt like the Astros had faced the reality of their situation: they have to stop pretending they are contenders. Lindstrom was a savvy trade to provide a cost-controlled insurance for the backend of the bullpen for the next few years. It allowed us wiggle room to try and fill in other gaps that could actually have placed us in the faint pale of the glow of contenders. After that trade I smiled because I was proud of Ed Wade. He'd made a move that was exactly what this team needed.

But now, with Lyon inked for too much, we're hamstrung. It's like Ed Wade is waiving the white flag on finding help at 3B or SP and figured he'd roll the dice on Lyon and see what happened. It's ilke he's forgotten that things like signing Joel Pinero late in the game can make the a huge difference, if you have the money to do it at the time. Or he's forgotten about all the players who signed late in the ball game at just about every position last year, too.

If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. But for the Astros—especially after the Lindstrom trade—Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?

To answer this post's title: The Astros got nothing the needed, just something a few in the front office might have wanted. Now they're left wanting things that can't afford. So, I guess they got screwed hamstrung. There's really nothing about Lyon's signing that can bring cause to justify it. There was a lot in the Lindstrom trade, but that's been buried under the mountain of inanity that is three years and fifteen million dollars for Lyon.

Of course, we also have yet to hear the final word on Lyon's deal. So maybe myself, Dave Cameron, and just about every baseball person I follow on Twitter will be eating crow tomorrow...or so I can hope.

Astros acquire Matt Lindstrom

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 05:48:05 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

6 months ago: Florida Marlins relief pitcher Matt Lindstrom celebrates after the Marlins defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 7-4 in the Monday, June 1, 2009 game in Miami. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

Browse more photos »

The Marlins sent reliever Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for right-hander Robert Bono and infielder Luis Bryan. Last season, Lindstrom went 2-1 with 15 saves in 17 opportunities and a 5.89 ERA in 54 games last season.

"We're happy to have Matt as a part of our club," Astros manager Ed Wade said. "He has a tremendous arm and has shown closer's stuff in the past. He had some health issues last season, but we believe he'll bounce back. We feel he has the capability to be our closer or to at least share those responsibilities."

From Wade's words, it sounds like there taking a real chance here. If healthy, Lindstrom brings a high 90s fastball to the table. However, he has been very inconsistent as of late and will only be given the closer role if he can prove to control his arm.

Let's Talk Lindstrom, The Newest Astro

davoag — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:29:23 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

This is your newest Astros closer, Matt Lindstrom. Make him feel welcome.

Browse more photos »

Okay, I know you've heard about the trade that sent Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for right-handed starter Robert Bono, shortstop Luis Bryan and a player to be named later. It's not exactly the deal you were looking for after Houston lost both Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins in the past three days. Both of those guys are considerable upgrades over Lindstrom. Let me try and make you feel a little better about this trade.

For starters, let's look at his contract. Lindstrom will be under club control for another three seasons. Granted, those are three seasons of arbitration, but they shouldn't have to spend more than 15 million at the most over those three seasons. He'll probably get 2 million in arbitration for next year.

If anything, this makes Lindstrom more attractive than anyone else on the trade market. Who else were the Astros going to get for three years at controlled money? None of the free agents were going to sign for that little over that many years, nor would the Astros want to commit to any of them for that long.

Now, there's the little problem of Lindstrom's performance. He wasn't very good last season. At all. There is a great breakdown of Lindstrom's season performance here. Yes, he was unlucky, but he also didn't strand enough runners. His performance suggests he'll be a good closer, but probably not great. Over a full season, his Bill James projections show him with 26 saves, three losses and a 44/25 K/BB ratio. Not the best projection in the world, but it's workable.

What about this possibility? Chai-jen Lo starts the season as a late-inning reliever, pairing with Fulchino until he's used to pitching in high level situations in the majors. Then, if Lindstrom is struggling, they slot Lo into the closer's role and move Lindstrom into the eighth inning. Both Arias and Fulchino are also possibilities here, but Lo probably has the biggest upside of the three.

The other thing to consider is which prospects the Astros gave up to get Lindstrom:

Robert Bono, RHP — Bono is a 20-year old who was drafted out of high school as a catcher. He converted to pitching and has had a nice little career to this point. He's a nice prospect but isn't exciting. He does seem to have excellent control, but there is no evidence he's a hard thrower or can strike out enough people to be successful at higher levels. Remember, the South Atlantic League favored pitchers more than a little last season. Out of the five starters at Lexington (Lyles, Seaton, Dydalewicz, Greenwalt, Bono), he probably had the fourth-best upside. Plus, the Astros like righty David Duncan, who will probably slot into Bono's rotation spot at Corpus Christi.

Luis Bryan, SS — The 19-year old middle infielder made quite a few of Farmstros weekly best lists last season. He has one glaring hole in that he doesn't walk, at all. In 283 career plate appearances, Bryan walked 11 times and none last season with the GCL Astros. He is exactly the kind of player the Astros should be trading away for a guy like Lindstrom.

I completely agree with Baseball America's Ben Badler that neither of these guys could have been in the Astros Top 30 prospects next season. Since the PTBNL is actually the Astros top selection in the Rule V draft, this is a very easy trade to make and probably one of the reasons it came together so quickly.

There, did it work? Do you feel a little better about this deal? Well, good, that's what The Crawfish Boxes is here for. Just know that I don't like this any more than you do (especially since Wade apparently wants to trade for ANOTHER closer). I'm just putting on a brave face and soldiering on like a good fan. How about we pick out Lindstrom's entrance music? Wouldn't that be fun?

SB Nation - Matt Lindstrom

Reactions to the Astros' transactions, by the numbers

Ed Wade and the Astros' busy week: How would you grade it?

If you could hand out a grade for this week's transactions it would be:

Beyond The Box Score On The Astros Signing Brandon Lyon, Pedro Feliz & Acquiring Matt Lindstrom

Thursday's Frosty Mug

MLB Trade Rumors: Rafael Soriano and Brandon Lyon= 2010 Closers?

Can Brandon Lyon duplicate his 2009 season with the Astros in 2010?

Marlins Trade Matt Lindstrom

Rule 5 Applesauce - Rangers Sign Harden, Worrying About Pelfrey, Boras Speaks And Twitter Is Still Ridiculous

Ed Wade gets his relievers, but what did the Astros get?

Astros acquire Matt Lindstrom

Let's Talk Lindstrom, The Newest Astro