SB Nation - Angel Salome

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:51:04 -0000

by Keith Birmingham - AP

Another day, another picture of Randy Wolf.

Some things to read while making your pitch to Gatorade.

It's been roughly 24 hours since we were told the Brewers were "very close" to a deal with Randy Wolf, but said deal has yet to materialize. Both Tom H. and Buster Olney are saying the Brewers are expecting a response today, now that Arn Tellem has had a day to shop the offer around, but reportedly hasn't found anyone willing to match it. Other notes on Wolf:

Tom H. says he "gets the feeling that the Brewers are suprised that Randy Wolf hasn't accepted their three-year offer yet."
Jayson Stark heard that the Brewers' offer to Wolf was bigger than the three year, $28 million deal the Braves recently gave Tim Hudson.
Jon Heyman tweeted that the Mets don't appear likely to land Wolf, and while MLB Trade Rumors lists them as showing interest in five other pitchers, Heyman says the price of mid-level pitching might drive them to spend a little more in pursuit of John Lackey.
The Junkball Blues has a look at the average return teams get on three year contracts to starting pitchers. There are some good ones (Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett), but also some disasters (Adam Eaton, Jason Schmidt, Carl Pavano).
Jorge Says No! wonders about the wisdom of offering Wolf a third year, but says the Brewers' willingness to do it implies they don't think they can sign Prince Fielder to a long term deal.

By the way, over two months ago Jorge Says No! predicted Wolf would get three years, $31 million on the open market. Impressive.

I feel the need to clarify my position on the Wolf rumor a bit, because I feel I was a little hard on the front office in this one act play last night. I still don't think Wolf wants to play in Milwaukee, which is why Arn Tellem has spent the last 24 hours searching for anyone on a coast willing to match the Brewers' offer. With that said, I'll give credit where credit is due to the front office for finding the guy they wanted and being aggressive in an attempt to get him here. If it turns out that the scenario I laid out is true and Tellem was just using the Brewers to raise the price for someone else, so be it. At least we're talking about the Brewers making an effort, and not hearing the reasons why they can't.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are close to a deal to bring Claudio Vargas back for another season, and are just waiting for formal acceptance from Vargas and his agent (FanShot). Conversation on the deal is probably complicated a bit by the fact that Vargas is currently in the Dominican Republic pitching in winter ball.

They're also expecting an answer sometime today from Craig Counsell, who may or may not be seeking a two year deal for next season. It sounds like Counsell and his agent spent the day yesterday checking out other options. Don't be surprised if a deal gets done relatively quickly.

Ken Macha told reporters yesterday that Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra are the only pitchers guaranteed a spot in the Brewer rotation next season, implying that Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will have to compete to earn an opportunity (FanShot). Open competition should be good for all involved, especially if the Crew manages to bring in some high-upside pitchers to compete.

Tom H. has all of those notes (and a terrible headline) in his roundup piece today, along with this note: The 40 man roster is starting to fill up, so don't be surprised if the Brewers decide not to take a chance on a Rule 5 pick in tomorrow's draft. I think that's a poor decision. Among others, Tim Dillard and Luis Cruz could probably pass through waivers without much notice. Passing on a cheap lottery ticket to protect one of those guys doesn't seem to make sense.

In the minors:

Project Prospect has a look at the speed of several Brewers who recently performed in the Arizona Fall League. Jonathan Lucroy appears to be in about the middle of the pack, while Taylor Green rated out way on the low end. They mustn't have had enough data to publish a ranking for Lorenzo Cain.
Angel Salome will be the next Brewer prospect to head out for winter ball: He's reportedly leaving at the end of the week to play for Este in the Dominican League. You can keep up with him and all the Brewer winter leaguers in our Winter League Updates.

We're continuing the effort to put together a BCB All Decade Team, and if you haven't cast your first votes yet, there's still time. Voting at first base will remain open until 4 pm today, and voting at second base runs until 4 pm tomorrow. Check back later today to vote for a shortstop.

Around baseball:

Braves: Designated outfielder Ryan Church for assignment.
D-Backs: Acquired pitchers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in a three way deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and outfielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke to the Tigers.
Mets: Signed 1B/3B Mike Hessman to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed outfielder Jerry Owens to a minor league deal.
Phillies: Signed Ross Gload to a two year deal.
Pirates: Are expected to sign Bobby Crosby to a one year deal.
Tigers: Signed catcher Robinzon Diaz, who was recently released by the Pirates.
Twins: Designated Boof Bonser for assignment.
White Sox: Signed Mark Teahen to a three year, $14 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Yankees: Will receive the #1 pick in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft as the PTBNL in the Brian Bruney trade.

Meanwhile, ~~Gritty von Canthitalick~~ Jason Kendall continues to search for work, but there's more suitors than you might think: The Rangers are reportedly strongly considering Kendall, now that Jarrod Saltalamacchia injured his shoulder playing winter ball. The Royals have also expressed interest.

From surprising news to what might possibly be the week's least surprising news: John Lackey is having a hard time finding a team willing to offer him a six year deal.

Actually, this might be the most surprising news: Kudos to the BBWAA for their decision to allow Sean Forman of Baseball Reference to join their organization.

We could have used this days ago, but Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has a guide to deciphering sources in Winter Meeting rumors. Again today, the meetings provide us with some things you might never have known without the internet, and wouldn't have missed:

Michael Tucker, who hasn't played in the majors since 2006, is in Indianapolis and wants to play next season.
Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson heard about a trade offer the Diamondbacks made for him and was offended by it.
C. Trent Rosecrans gave the Meetings' Best Hat Award to Manny Acta.
Blue Jays beat reporter Jordan Bastian gives us a look at the hotel lobby, complete with Christmas tree.
Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com had to step away from the meetings for a moment to help his mom figure out the TV.

On this day in 1977, the Brewers traded pitchers Jim Slaton and Rich Folkers to the Tigers for Ben Oglivie. The 29 year old Panama native would spend the last nine years of his career as a Brewer, hitting .277/.345/.461, leading the AL with 41 home runs in 1980, and appearing in three All Star games.

Happy birthday today to:

Doc Medich, who made the final ten starts of his major league career for the 1982 Brewers, and turns 61.
Ed Romero, who spent parts of eight seasons as a Brewer in the late 70's and 80's and later served as a minor league infield coordinator and manager. He turns 52.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some snowblowing to do.

Drink up.

The Weekend Mug, now with more Australians! And another Canadian!

NoahJ — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 06:12:07 -0000

After trading J.J. Hardy, Doug Melvin realized he had to win back the hearts of Wisconsin women everywhere. Enter Oeltjen.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while on a social networking site far, far away.

So far this is my second week doing the weekend post. My first weekend was immediately after the Carlos Gomez trade, and this weekend comes after the Brewers announce signing Gregg Zaun. It's my turn again the weekend following Christmas, so maybe Brewers fans can be expecting a Christmas present from Doug Melvin and the gang.

About the Zaun signing:

Adam McCalvy tells us that Zaun was assured the starting catching spot. Zaun has played more than 110 games only once in his career and more than 100 games four times, and he's not getting any younger. There should be plenty of opportunities for whoever the backup catcher should be.
Right Field Bleachers thinks that backup will be either Mike Rivera or George Kottaras, with the idea being another year of minor league polishing for Angel Salome and Jonathon Lucroy.
In Between Hops likens Zaun to a cheaper Jason Kendall. Neither is very good at hitting (some would claim they are atrocious), but over the last three years, Zaun has been Kendalls slight superior in OBP and has been significantly better slugging. Zaun did this in close to half of the plate appearances of Kendall.
I think that View From Bernie's Chalet is more excited about the end of the Jason Kendall era than for the signing of Zaun.
Brewers! Brewers! Keep Turning Up the Heat! finds the signing to be strange and suggests that Milwaukee had enough readily available options. Personally, I prefer having someone like Zaun around. I don't think that Rivera would be a viable option to start the whole season, and the other options (Kottaras, Lucroy and Salome) are all younger and could really struggle, particularly Lucroy who would be skipping triple-A. I think that I would like Lucroy to either back up Zaun for the first couple months of the season (like I said, there should be plenty of opportunities) or for him to be called up sometime in June provided he isn't massively struggling in Nashville. Gradually working in what appears to be the heir apparent to the Catchers position seems like a much better idea than throwing him straight into the fire.
And the Grand National Championships thinks this is the most logical move in the history of sports.
Oh, and if I ever met Gregg Zaun, he does not look like a guy I would want to piss off.

Also from the Grand National Championships, they believe that re-signing Craig Counsell--who Doug Melvin has made an offer to--would be a bad idea and suggests signing someone like Esteban German instead. If we were to go with someone else, I think that going with someone in house (like Adam Heether) would be just as good as signing someone from outside the organization. I also think that a player like Craig Counsell is a boon to any team, though, and would serve as a very very good mentor to Alcides Escobar.

The Brewers also signed former Diamondback and full-time Australian Trent ~~Durrington~~ Oltjean...whichever. Brew City Sports tried to reach him for comment, but unfortunately, Oltjean was too busy doing Australian type activities. Oltjean is expected to provide protection for Ryan Braun in the cuteness batting order after the departure of J.J. Hardy.

For those hoping that the Brewers decide to pursue Brad Penny, the bad news is that he rejected a one year offer to stay with the GIants. So it looks like any team that wants to sign him would either have to offer multiple years or a pretty significant--and guarenteed--amount of money for one year.

In Between Hops reminds us again of the comparison that can be made between Casey McGehee and Bill Hall.

Around the Majors:
Atlanta Braves: Rafael Soriano is considering accepting their offer of arbitration.
Chicago Cubs: Could announce a signing of Mike Cameron as soon as Monday.
Houston Astros: Signed former Giant Ryan Sadowski
Kansas City Royals: Signed Cuban lefty Noel Arguelles
Minnesota Twins: Signed 16 year old Dominican Shortstop Miguel Sano.
Seattle Mariners and Jack Z: Signed Chone Figgins to a $36MM, 4 year deal.

If you were disappointed when they announced they were shutting down production, good news! A movie adaptation of Moneyball is going to be back underway!

Oh, and potentially the most exciting news of the day, Metsblog cites Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus as saying that there will be two big announcements at the winter meetings that will be way bigger than "any player signing or news made during". I don't have any idea what it could be, so feel free to speculate.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Felipe Lopez reacts after learning Doug Melvin has decided not to offer him arbitration, against the advice of roughly 90% of the BCB community.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while raising your expectations.

Actually, lowering your expectations might be a better move. An already disappointing Brewer offseason got even worse yesterday, as the Crew declined to offer arbitration to all five of their Type B free agents, forfeiting any chance to receive compensation picks when/if they signed with another team (FanShot).

Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which players should receive offers. 202 voters weighed in, and here are the results, as promised:

Felipe Lopez, 88%
Mike Cameron, 48%
Braden Looper, 7%
Jason Kendall, 3%
David Weathers, 3%

So, nearly 90% of what I consider to be a pretty knowledgeable community of Brewer fans wanted the team to go one way with Lopez, and Doug Melvin went the other. If that's not a microcosm of the offseason so far, I don't know what is. We split pretty much down the middle on Cameron, which is interesting, and the small percentages of votes for Looper, Kendall and Weathers are proof that some Cub fans stopped by to vote in the poll. Thanks for visiting.

Here's some more reaction from around the web:

SgtClueLs of Fire Doug Melvin, which likely gained some new bandwagon members yesterday, has a how-to guide on screwing up arbitration.
The decision earned Melvin a special distinction over at Brew City Sports.
View From Bernie's Chalet doesn't get the logic.
In-Between Hops doesn't get the outrage.

If it makes you feel any better, several other teams didn't offer arbitration to any of their free agents, either. Amazin' Avenue has the full rundown of arb offers: 32 players were given the option, out of a possible 68. There is a small silver lining there: Because the supplemental round is now guaranteed to be no longer than 32 picks, the value of the Brewers' second round pick in the draft just went up a bit. It will continue to increase if players accept arbitration or re-sign with their own teams.

After reading today's news, I'm sure you're itching to run down to Miller Park and give the Brewers more of your money, right? Well, you're in luck: the Clubhouse Sale is this weekend, giving you the opportunity to check out some discounted Brewer items and game-used memorabilia. You probably won't be as lucky as Tom H., though, who once purchased the final Brewer jersey worn by Julio Machado.

Of course, it's not all bad news today: The Brewers also officially announced the signing of John Halama.

In the minors:

Prospects Paradise has the Brewers' State of the System up, with scouting reports on eleven Brewer prospects. Overall, they give the organization a C for Impact Talent and a C- for Depth.
The Baseball Chronicle is on a mission to rank the top 200 prospects in the minors. Alcides Escobar checked in at #27 and Brett Lawrie is #57.

Around baseball:

Braves: Have reportedly reached a deal with Billy Wagner on a one year, $7 million deal with a vesting option for 2011.
Phillies: Signed catcher Brian Schneider to a two year deal.
Rays: Designated reliever Jeff Bennett for assignment and acquired Kelly Shoppach from the Indians for a PTBNL.

With the Rays acquiring a catcher yesterday, it's becoming increasingly likely they'll non-tender incumbent catcher Dioner Navarro. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times lists the Brewers as one of ten teams that could be interested in his services, but whiffs on their current situation, listing Angel Salome as the top internal option.

At least we still have the Rule 5 Draft, right? Bucs Dugout has a look at another potential pick: Yankees pitcher George Kontos.

Sometimes I'm just not in the mood for heavy statistical analysis and whatnot, but I know some of you always are, so here's a post from Baseball Analysts on salary and WAR, looking at the correlation between the two. It's the kind of thing I'd attempt to comprehend on a normal day. Today, I'm just not in the mood.

There's a new leader in the clubhouse in the competition for minor league baseball's greatest logo. Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you the Richmond Flying Squirrels. (h/t Baseball America)

Yesterday I mentioned the Baseball Hall of Fame's Facebook fan page, and later realized it's been a long time since I've plugged ours. If you're a fan of BCB, you can show it to the world by adding us here. Oh, and follow us on Twitter, too.

No Brewer birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a posthumous happy birthday to Darryl Kile, who would have turned 41.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some traveling to do.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:24 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Pretty much everyone except Doug Melvin seems to think the Brewers should offer arbitration to Felipe Lopez.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while not getting what you hoped for.

The Brewers have until 11 pm tonight to finalize their plan to offer or decline arbitration to five free agents, and while Tom H. seems to think the Brewers will extend an offer to Felipe Lopez, Adam McCalvy is reporting the team is "leaning against" making the offer to any of the five (FanShot).

All of this is another episode in the "Doug Melvin Moments" series I think most of us are getting increasingly sick of. Doug, we get it. Times are tough for the ever-so-downtrodden small-to-mid market GM with the job many of us would kill for. If the system is really so unbearable, you're welcome to quit and be replaced by someone who will spend more time working with the tools they have and less time bitching about the ones they don't.

Assuming Melvin does eventually get off his soapbox and get back to the task of improving the team, Wisconsin Sports Tap has a guide for prospective new Brewers that can help them avoid becoming the next Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall or Johnny Estrada.

With that said, it might be a while before we have news on Mark Mulder. Roguejim uncovered a story yesterday that sheds some light on Mulder's rehab and situation, and raises the possibility that Mulder will decide not to come back if he's unable to perform at a level he's accustomed to.

We're also probably just about done discussing Kevin Millwood. Rangers beat reporter T.R. Sullivan had this to say about the rumors:

The Rangers wouldn't mind adding pitching but they don't want to subtract it so they are not trying to move Kevin Millwood. Word is the Brewers were interested but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and Doug Melvin haven't spoke in weeks, That might change at the Winter Meetings but the Rangers still need Millwood's arm far more than they need to move his salary.

Adam McCalvy opened up the mailbag yesterday and answered reader questions on the possibility of a Prince Fielder extension, Dominican prospect Santo Aybar, Lorenzo Cain and Caleb Gindl.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Lisa Winston of MiLB.com has a review of the season for the Brewer minor leagues, and a look at the attempt to build pitching depth in the system.
Project Prospect has Jonathan Lucroy ranked ninth on their list of baseball's top 15 catching prospects. Angel Salome was not ranked.
The Baseball Chronicle has Alcides Escobar as a backup infielder on their 2010 All Prospect Team. Escobar is on the bench behind Rays prospect Reid Brignac and Cubs SS prospect Starlin Castro, who is playing out of position at second base.
Rattler Radio has photos of the construction at Time Warner Field, where they're hard at work adding the new beach seats, boardwalk and bullpens.

Up for some arbitrary list-making today? Miller Park Drunk has a list of the top ten Brewers of the decade. It's worth a click for the picture, if nothing else.

John Axford might have an outside shot at winning a spot in the Brewer bullpen next spring, depending on how rest of the offseason goes. In the meantime, he spent yesterday talking to college students about life in the big leagues and the importance of education.

On the transaction log:

Cardinals: Re-signed catcher Jason LaRue and signed infielder Ruben Gotay to a minor league deal.
Mets: Signed catcher Chris Coste, and re-signed infielder Alex Cora to a one year deal worth $2 million.
Pirates: Signed reliever Wil Ledezma to a minor league deal and released catcher Robinzon Diaz.

Wondering what it might take for the Brewers to acquire Edwin Jackson? Here's a hint: The Mariners reportedly turned down an offer from the Tigers would have sent Jackson to Seattle for pitchers Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley. So apparently the price is pretty high.

If the Brewers are serious about making an effort to sign Justin Duchscherer, they may have competition within the division: MLB Trade Rumors says the Pirates are one of the interested teams.

The Brewers probably won't be players in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, but odds are the competition will heat up soon. Halladay has reportedly told the Blue Jays he won't accept any deal after reporting to spring training in February.

With the Winter Meetings coming up, we have more Rule 5 Draft notes: Baseball Time In Arlington has a look at the top ten unprotected pitchers, including former Brewer farmhand Will Inman.

Yesterday I mentioned the voting for the third baseman on the Timber Rattlers' 15th Anniversary team, and left a comment on Rattler Radio asking about the fate of top contender Bo Robinson, who had a few promising seasons in the Mariner organization before dropping off the map in 2002. Within 24 hours the answer was the subject of this week's Mehring Monday. Impressive turnaround time, to be sure.

I'm a few days behind on this one, but I recently discovered Cooperstown Chatter, the MLBlog run by the Baseball Hall of Fame, and this post on Rollie Fingers' 1981 MVP season. It's almost as impressive as Matt Stairs having a street named after him in Fredericton, New Brunswick.

By the way, if you've ever been to the Baseball Hall of Fame, or you haven't but would like to go someday, you can become a fan on Facebook. As an added bonus, Facebook fans get to help in the voting for this year's broadcaster induction.

On this day in 1967, Seattle was awarded an American League expansion franchise. I guess that makes today the Brewers' date of conception?

Happy birthday today to Tom Filer, who posted a 4.32 ERA in 39 appearances as a Brewer during the '88-'90 seasons and turns 53, and to Julio Machado, who spent parts of the 1990 and 1991 seasons as a Brewer before being arrested for murder in Venezuela. He turns 44.

Oh, and I haven't actually watched it yet (no sound on the computer where I write the Mug), but this video has Rammstein and Cookie Monster, so what could possibly go wrong?

Drink up.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:20:53 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

George Kottaras, right, spent the 2009 season in Boston backing up Jason Varitek, left, and Victor Martinez.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while getting the dog more fiber.

While it's hardly Earth-shattering, the Brewers made an interesting move yesterday, claiming catcher George Kottaras off waivers from Boston (FanShot). Kottaras is 26 and a former top prospect in the Padres organization. He reportedly requested his release, as he wasn't going to get much playing time with both Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez back in Boston next season. Here's a quick list of things to know about him:

He appeared in three games for the Red Sox in 2008, but saw his first significant MLB action in 2009, when he hit .237/.308/.387 in 107 PAs (45 games).
He's spent parts of the last four seasons in AAA, hitting .239/.331/.424.
He's out of options, so he'll either have to make the team in spring training or be placed on waivers.
He's left handed. The other three Brewer catchers on the 40-man roster (Mike Rivera, Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy) are all righties.

Doug Melvin acknowledged that this move was made for depth, not because he sees Kottaras as a front line catcher in 2010. With that said, this move probably isn't good news for Mike Rivera. Rivera is 33 and eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, and the Brewers may see Kottaras as a player who could provide similar production for less money. With that said, Brew City Sports isn't too excited about him.

Kottaras wasn't the only player added to the roster yesterday: Lorenzo Cain and pitcher Amaury Rivas were also added to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft in December (FanShot). The Brewers still have four open spots on the roster, so they could feasibly add another player or two before tomorrow's deadline.

Unless another waiver claim comes up, it could be a quiet day today. Doug Melvin said the Brewers aren't likely to reach a deal with any of their pending free agents before they're allowed to negotiate with other teams tomorrow.

The neverending saga of Mark Mulder continues. Today, Tom H. says it would be a huge upset if Mark Mulder isn't a Brewer next spring. The only thing that moves slower than these negotiations is another Brewer free agent, Claudio Vargas.

Meanwhile, the field of contenders might be narrowing for Jarrod Washburn. Larry Larue of The Tacoma News Tribune says Washburn has expressed interest in playing for the Brewers, but is also considering the Twins and wouldn't mind returning to the Mariners (FanShot).

On another free agent front with mild Brewer interest: The OC Register has a poll asking readers where John Lackey will sign. As of this writing, the Brewers were tied for ninth in the voting.

As for moves that have already been made, Rubie Q is still not happy about the J.J. Hardy deal, but Miller Park Drunk takes a look at the similarities between Hardy's career path and the path of one of his top comparisons.

Down in the minors, we have stadium news in Appleton, where the Timber Rattlers are doing some renovations this offseason. They're moving the bullpens into the outfield to add some new seats (including an All-You-Can-Eat section), and adding a sand beach general admission area in right field.

No transactions of note today, so I'll move straight into the other notes:

Zach Greinke recently won the AL Cy Young Award, surprising no one, with an incredible season. Keep Turning up The Heat! compared Greinke's 2009 season to Ben Sheets' 2004 performance, and it's closer than you might think.

If you have hours to kill and would love to read Rollie Fingers talking about all things baseball (and his new book), then this Dugout Doctors interview was written with you in mind.

Just a few weeks ago, I mentioned the debut of the Florida Winter Baseball League, and the possibility that it could be a game-changer for American players looking for the opportunity to sharpen their skills without leaving the US. As it turns out, the Caribbean leagues won't have much to worry about, as FWBL has canceled the remainder of the season after just 15 games. So much for that idea.

Maybe the new goal can be "no games in November:" Bud Selig is reportedly looking into the possibility of eliminating some postseason off days to attempt to move things along a bit.

On this day in 1976, the Brewers signed Sal Bando as a free agent. Bando spent the final five seasons of his career in Milwaukee, hitting .250/.335/.382. He would later return as GM and spend most of the 90's digging a hole the Brewers would need another decade to dig out of.

No Brewer birthdays today, but happy birthday to the other Joe Morgan, who played in 13 games for the 1959 Milwaukee Braves and turns 79.

Oh, and every high school newspaper reporter makes this mistake once, but apparently some don't learn from it: Calling a player an idiot in "not for print" notes in your story is never a good idea.

Drink up.

Let's wait on Jonathan Lucroy

KLSnow — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:00:39 -0000

by Darren Hauck - AP

Jason Kendall's ability to get hit by pitches isn't a good enough reason to bring him back for 2010, at any price.

View full size photo »

All of a sudden, after two years of sticking with Jason Kendall, the Brewers look like they're ready to make a move behind the plate. Frankly, it's about time. Earlier this week, Doug Melvin told Arn Tellem (who represents Jason Kendall) not to expect a $5 million offer to return to the Brewers next season. That's a lot nicer than what I would have said, but I'm ok with any steps taken to imply Kendall won't be starting 130+ games for the Brewers again next season.

At the same time, Jonathan Lucroy is having a very nice run in the AFL after an impressive season in Huntsville (where he hit .267/.380/.417), and Doug Melvin is starting to speak publicly about the possibility that Lucroy could make the jump directly to the big leagues next season. Melvin has compared Lucroy to Russell Martin, Chris Snyder and Kurt Suzuki, who all made the jump directly from AA to the majors at catcher, and did so with some level of success.

Now, it's possible Melvin is just posturing, as he's been known to do in the past: In January, for example, Melvin said the Brewers were out of money, then signed Braden Looper less than two weeks later. It's entirely possible that Melvin is raising the possibility that he'll go forward with the assets he has in an effort to get Kendall to lower his asking price, at which point the two sides will agree to a deal and I will probably vomit. Any to-do list for this offseason should include the following line: "Do not re-sign Jason Kendall, at any price, for any role."

With that said, I'm not sure Jonathan Lucroy is the answer either, at least not yet: He's 23 years old, but he's had just two full seasons as a professional. Yes, he's posted a .380 career minor league OBP, but he's also never played above AA. And while he is hitting pretty well against elite competition in the Arizona Fall League, we have to be careful not to put too much weight into what happens down there: Lucroy is hitting .366/.364/.585, but the AFL is one of the most hitter friendly places on Earth, with a .281/.357/.441 league average. Also, Lucroy's AFL numbers cover all of 42 plate appearances, so there's a sample size issue.

I know I've ranted against this in similar situations in the past, but service time also needs to be a consideration here. The Brewers have six years with Jonathan Lucroy under their control as a major leaguer. If he's not ready and they bring him up to the big leagues, that's one of those six seasons down the drain. If they wait until they've got more proof he's prepared to compete at this level, they could get six productive seasons out of him.

As good as Lucroy has been in the minors, I don't think you can make a convincing enough case that he'll be an immediately productive major leaguer. He has a low level of experience at the highest levels of the minors, and his most notable successes have been in relatively small sample sizes. I think he'd benefit from a few months or even a full season in AAA, and if I were in charge that's where he'd start 2009.

However, that doesn't change the fact that the Brewers need a catcher now. In my ideal world, here's how the Brewers would handle the catching position this offseason:

1. Make a serious effort to sign Yorvit Torrealba. Torrealba isn't an elite catcher (he's hit .258/.316/.394 over the last four seasons as a Rockie), but he might be the best one available on the free agent market, and he's capable enough to hold down the job until Lucroy is ready to take it over. The Rockies recently declined his option for 2010, and he turned down a 2 year, $4.5 million offer to remain with the team. Here's the deal I'd offer him:

Two years, $6 million base salary, club option for third year at $5 million, $500k buyout.
$250,000 incentives each season for starting 80 and 100 games, and $500,000 for starting 120.
Option year vests if Torrealba starts 200 or more games in the first two seasons of the deal.

By making this deal, the Brewers would spend less money on a catcher than they have over the previous two seasons, but would have a viable long-term insurance policy at the position. Meanwhile, Torrealba has a reason to work to retain his spot in front of the prospects. If he starts enough games to make the 2012 option vest, it will be because neither Angel Salome or Lucroy have emerged as a viable replacement. If that happens, the Brewers will probably need Yorvit to hang around for a third year anyway.

If this deal went through, I would recoup some of the expenditure by non-tendering Mike Rivera. I like Rivera and I don't think he's been given the opportunity he's deserved to prove he can contribute as a Brewer, but Ken Macha doesn't appear interested in giving him an opportunity to be a full time player, and Rivera figures to make about $1 million in arbitration.

2. Split time 60/40 between the veteran and Angel Salome. It's time to put up or shut up for Salome. If Lucroy starts the season in AAA, then there's no place to put Salome except on the big league roster, to either prove he belongs or not. As such, I'd divide the rotation, assigning Angel to two pitchers, and see what he can do with consistent playing time in the major leagues. Allowing Salome to catch 2-3 times a week (and perhaps DH during interleague play) should be enough playing time for the Brewers to see what they have with him and also keep whichever veteran remains (Rivera or Torrealba) rested and sharp.

I'm not sure the Brewers see it this way, though. In the article linked above about Kendall's return, Adam McCalvy said "neither Melvin nor Brewers manager Ken Macha have indicated that they view Rivera as a 130-plus start player." In all of baseball last season, there were only six catchers who caught 130 games. Most teams split time between players at the catcher position. There's no reason why the Brewers couldn't let a veteran like Rivera or Torrealba catch 100 games, and someone like Salome handle the other 62.

3. Reevaluate after the season. Unless injury, ineffectiveness or an extremely hot start by Lucroy come into play, I'd leave him down in AAA until September, call him up as a third catcher for the stretch run, and wait to make a decision regarding his future until after the season. In either of the above scenarios, the veteran catcher and Salome are under team control for 2011. If the front office feels Lucroy is ready to take over, then they have one of baseball's greatest problems: Two capable catchers. If he's not, they still have a viable catching tandem to start 2011, and can afford to be patient.

I like Lucroy as much as the next guy, but I don't think there's any reason to rush him at this point. I think the Brewers should be patient, max out his development and take the necessary steps to fill the gap until he's ready. They should also not re-sign Jason Kendall.

Poll

What do you think of my plan for Brewer catchers next season?

I like and/or could live with this plan.

193 votes

I'm not a big fan of this plan, but we could do worse.

62 votes

I disagree with your plan, and think Lucroy is ready now.

70 votes

I disagree with your plan, and think the Brewers should bring Kendall back.

13 votes

Damn it KL, crap like this is a perfect example of how you're ruining this site. Jeff Sackmann never would have written something like this.

44 votes

382 votes | Poll has closed

Looking back at Community Projections: Catchers

KLSnow — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:00:33 -0000

by Darren Hauck - AP

Jason Kendall is very proficient at getting hit by pitches, but that's about the only thing Brewer catchers did really well in 2009.

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Now seems like as good a time as any to start a series looking back at our expectations for 2009, who met or exceeded them, and who fell short. We'll start today with a look at catchers, to get them out of the way.

Performance:

Jason Kendall
Projected: .251/.333/.324
Actual: .241/.331/.305

Mike Rivera:
Projected: .260/.315/.406
Actual: .228/.326/.342

Surprisingly enough, we as a community were a little optimistic on Kendall, at least as optimistic as one can be while projecting a .659 OPS. While it was a narrow underperformance, Kendall underperformed our expectations in all three slash stats.

Sadly, Mike Rivera also fell short of our expectations. A year after performing exceptionally well in limited opportunities, Rivera was still used sparingly (although slightly more often), but failed to recapture 2008's magic.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Jason Kendall	77.2%	79.8%	+2.6%
Mike Rivera	14.4%	22.5%	+11.1%
Angel Salome	7.5%	0%	-7.5%
Vinny Rottino	.6%	0%	-.6%
Brett Lawrie	.3%	0%	-.3%
Carlos Corporan	0%	.2%	+.2%

It looks like most of us expected the Brewers to try out some other options at catcher this season. Both Kendall and Mike Rivera gained playing time over our expectations, mainly at the expense of Angel Salome, who some of us projected to play as much as 40% of the time.

Two of sixteen projectors thought Vinny Rottino would sneak in some plate appearances this season, and one reader, before Brett Lawrie's move to second base, projected perhaps the most ambitious promotion in Brewer history. Neither of those happened, of course.

We also completely failed to project the possibility that Carlos Corporan would see fill in duty this season. His one plate appearance resulted in a hit, but his overall contribution is pretty negligible.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.253	.327	.343	.669
Actual	.240	.331	.313	.644
Difference	-.013	+.004	-.030	-.025

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:23:45 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Braden Looper reacts after giving up a home run to Justin Upton on Saturday, May 2. Looper is one of several below-replacement level players who spent significant time as a Brewer this season.

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Some things to read while establishing an acceptable salutation.

In the weeks following the 2009 season we've spent a fair amount of time discussing what went wrong, but this graph at Beyond the Box Score probably sums it up better than any other: The Brewers were the fourth worst team in all of baseball at keeping below-replacement level players off the field, losing 5.4 wins.

Looking forward, the Brewers have unveiled their spring training schedule (FanShot). Mark your calendar now: the first game will start at 1 pm Arizona time on Thursday, March 4. I've got roughly four months to figure out if Arizona time in March is one hour or two hours behind Central time.

Could Felipe Lopez have a tough time finding a home this offseason? Jorge Says No! has a look at the developing market for second basemen, and doesn't see many teams with money to spend.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee may not be the first choice for Wisconsin native Jarrod Washburn, who told a reporter he'd like to return to Seattle. Hopefully the front office won't overspend to convince him otherwise.

View From Bernie's Chalet is holding out hope for the return of Ben Sheets, and proposes a one year deal with an option for a second. I still think Sheets is going to disappoint someone next spring by reporting to camp out of shape and nowhere near ready to compete after a year off. If he can prove he's ready to pitch, I'd be willing to take him back...but I'm not sure how one can do that in a non-WBC season.

I'm operating under the assumption he'll be back until told otherwise, but Miller Park Drunk seems relatively confident that Mike Cameron is already gone, and has a look at Jody Gerut as a possible 2010 replacement. He presents three possible outcomes: Gerut is good, bad, or injured.

Jonathan Lucroy is tearing up the AFL, hitting .385/.407/.615 through his first seven games, but that wasn't enough to earn him a spot in the Rising Stars Showcase, which will be televised on MLB Network this Saturday. In fact, the only Brewer prospect on the roster will be Mark Rogers, who's posted a 12.27 ERA in 7.2 AFL innings. Zach Braddock was also snubbed, despite allowing just one earned run in 8.2 innings and picking up two saves.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Minor League Ball needs your help selecting a Community Top Five prospects for the Brewers. In the early going, guys like Cody Scarpetta, Jake Odorizzi and Eric Arnett, who all have high ceilings but are very far from the big leagues, are getting a lot of attention, while guys like Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy are not.
Project Prospect ranked Mat Gamel as baseball's sixth best third base prospect.
Rattler Radio has a look at some of the holiday specials the Timber Rattlers are working on, if you're looking for something to get that special someone in Appleton...or me.

I don't have any transactions to report today, so we'll jump straight into other notes: This might be one of the creepier things I've seen in a while, but superstition would suggest it now needs to happen for World Series Games 6 and 7: Todd Zolecki has a photo of The Harry Kalas Cake that was in the press box before last night's game. Kalas, a long time Phillies broadcaster, passed away earlier this season.

I haven't spent much time discussing the Cubs' sale because it moves at an excruciatingly slow pace and is covered well enough elsewhere, but I thought this milestone was worth noting: With the sale finalized, investor Laura Ricketts is Major League Baseball's first openly gay owner.

I link to Beyond the Box Score a lot, as you've probably noticed, as it's quickly developed into one of the premier places for stat-based baseball conversation and research. A lot of the credit for that development belongs to Sky Kalkman, who announced yesterday that he's moving on. If you've enjoyed Sky's work at BtB as much as I have, stop by sometime today to say thank you.

On this day in 1981, Rollie Fingers was awarded the AL Cy Young and a year later, Pete Vuckovich was awarded the 1982 version.

I was unable to find a Brewer birthday today (Fatter than Joey will probably point one out in the comments), so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Hall of Famer Bob Feller, who turns 91.

Oh, and I almost forgot to mention: I'm leaving on vacation in a few hours, and will be gone until Sunday. Fear not, though, I've left the site in capable hands with the moderators you all know and love and an All Star cast of Guest Muggers while I'm gone, and I've got some posts scheduled to appear during my absence, as well. All told, you probably won't notice I'm gone...or may wish I'd stay away. Either way, I'll be back on Monday morning.

Drink up.

Taking a look at some early projections

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:35:51 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Can Rickie Weeks bounce back and have a strong 2010?

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Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Rickie Weeks	425	.259	.357	.449	80	48	23	5	16	56	100

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Felipe Lopez	565	.281	.352	.400	79	58	31	3	10	60	104
Craig Counsell	342	.246	.337	.327	45	25	15	2	3	42	51

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

Both because he could feasibly bat #2 and because he's possibly the most interesting projection:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Alcides Escobar	504	.288	.326	.377	75	48	22	4	5	28	77

If Escobar can put up this kind of season and still play the level of defense we've come to expect from him, I'll be overjoyed. James also projects him to steal 42 bases in 54 attempts, adding roughly 18 bases to his value. The walk total may look low, but it's actually a bit optimistic: Escobar only averaged 23.3 walks per season over six years in the minors. Escobar's primary source of value will almost certainly always be his glove, but if he can put up a .700 OPS in the majors then he'll be a significantly above average contributor at short.

The other option, of course, is J.J. Hardy:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
J.J. Hardy	528	.254	.320	.422	70	68	28	2	19	50	92

This isn't as strong of a bounce back as I was expecting to see. Certainly, Hardy adds a little bit of power over Escobar, but his OBP is actually a little lower, and his base-stealing ability is completely negligible (James projects Hardy to go 1-for-1 stealing bases). These numbers are roughly the midpoint between Hardy's very good 2008 season and extremely disappointing 2009.

Moving on, I think it's pretty safe to assume Ryan Braun will be batting third and playing left field on Opening Day, unless Anthony Witrado is promoted to GM:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Ryan Braun	615	.315	.378	.593	112	119	42	6	39	53	112

Those are MVP-quality numbers if ever I've seen them. Braun projects to be an elite player again next season, and if the award doesn't go to Albert Pujols (projected to go .333/.443/.642 with 44 home runs), Braun might have to be considered the frontrunner. These numbers would set new career highs in slugging, RBI, doubles and home runs, while tying a career low in strikeouts.

And, unless something changes before spring, Prince Fielder will likely be hitting behind Braun:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Prince Fielder	601	.286	.393	.574	103	124	37	2	44	96	135

With these numbers, Fielder would still be one of the National League's premier hitters, but his production would actually decline a bit from 2009's numbers in all three slash stats, RBI, home runs and walks. Fielder won't turn 26 until May, so it seems strange to project him to decline, even slightly. With that said, he'll still be one of the NL's elite hitters.

The way things stack up at present, the leading candidate to bat fifth and play third base is likely Casey McGehee:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Casey McGehee	492	.272	.328	.429	63	76	30	1	15	41	86

Like many of us, James expects McGehee to come back down to Earth a little, but these projections still have him as a solid-to-slightly above average third baseman. All three slash lines are significant steps down from the .301/.360/.499 numbers he put up in 2009.

The other option, of course, is some guy the Brewers have on the end of the bench:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mat Gamel	455	.277	.354	.464	65	73	28	3	17	53	142

These projections, especially the OBP, seem a little high, but Gamel projects to outperform McGehee in nearly every way en route to a .818 OPS. This is yet another piece of evidence to be used in the argument that the Brewers should sell high on McGehee to make room for Gamel in the lineup.

(I know at least a few of you would probably like to see a projection for Adam Heether here, but he doesn't appear in James' projections. Sorry.)

Until told otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Mike Cameron will return to play center field and bat sixth:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mike Cameron	561	.237	,328	.428	79	74	32	3	23	71	171

These numbers aren't the best argument for opening the checkbook to keep him around. Clearly, James is expecting age to catch up with Cameron, who would lose 13 points in average, 14 in OBP, 24 in slugging, and strike out over 170 times for just the second time in his 16 year career. These numbers still aren't terrible, and combined with good defense Cameron is still likely an above average center fielder. But, with that said, paying anything like his $10 million 2009 salary for performance at this level is a questionable decision.

Dropping all the way to the seventh spot in the lineup in right field, here's Corey Hart:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Corey Hart	533	.272	.332	.467	78	76	37	5	19	43	110

This would actually be a pretty nice bounce-back season for Hart, with his highest batting average, slugging percentage and run total since 2007. Entering his age 28 season, it's possible Hart will never be the player we all thought he might be after hitting .295/.353/.539 three years ago, but these numbers would be acceptable for a corner outfielder.

While we're on the subject, here are the projections for some other outfielders on the Brewer roster:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Frank Catalanotto	110	.273	.360	.418	14	12	8	1	2	10	14
Jody Gerut	162	.259	.326	.420	23	20	9	1	5	14	25

I'm not sure either of these stat lines suggest either of these guys should play everyday, but they project to be solid fourth and fifth outfielders next season, and if it won't cost too much to do so, I'd be fine with bringing both back. Thankfully, there's no projection for Corey Patterson.

I'm preparing myself for disappointment by operating under the assumption that Jason Kendall will continue to catch and tie up the eighth spot in the batting order again next season.

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Jason Kendall	409	.254	.338	.320	43	35	19	1	2	37	44

I'm not sure what James is smoking here, because even this lackluster projection seems a little too high. In two seasons as a Brewer, Kendall has hit ..244/.329/.315, and I'm not sure he can even repeat that at age 36, much less improve upon all three numbers. Kendall is likely getting the benefit of the doubt based on an extensive major league career, but recent evidence would suggest he's sliding downhill, not mounting a comeback. I'm not sure where one finds the data to support even a small offensive resurgence from a weak-hitting 36 year old catcher.

Interestingly enough, James' projections don't have Mike Rivera, but they do have Angel Salome:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Angel Salome	240	.296	.345	.442	30	39	15	1	6	18	45

This is much higher than I would have projected Salome, who I think might be the third best of the three internal options to replace Kendall next season (Sadly, Jonathan Lucroy is also not projected). With that said, Salome is projected to out-OPS Kendall by 129 points. Remember what it was like when the Brewers had a catcher that wasn't an offensive black hole? Me either. I'd love to see what that's like.

So, what do you think of these projections?

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:04:13 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Ryan Braun celebrates with Prince Fielder after Braun hit a two-run home run against the Nationals in July.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while not crossing the line.

Ryan Braun was a unanimous pick for The Sporting News' Postseason NL All Star Team (FanShot). Prince Fielder was left off the team to make room for some guy named Pujols.

As it turns out, though, it's not all good news for Braun. As noted in this comment in yesterday's Mug, Braun missed the cutoff for becoming arbitration eligible as a Super 2 player by just 12 days. If Braun had qualified, the Brewers would have owed him an additional $6 million over the course of his contract.

There's not much else for Brewer news today, so let's jump straight into the minor league notes:

Project Prospect has a look at four major Top 100 prospect lists issued before the season, the differences between them and what they say about their respective publications. Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress each appeared on all four lists. Angel Salome appeared on three.
Behind their pay-wall, Baseball-Intellect has some video and a scouting report from a Jake Odorizzi game in Helena in July. I haven't seen it myself, but if you're a subscriber (or have some time to kill and $3 to burn), then it might be worth a look.

Clearly, the Brewers have some holes that need patching this offseason. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks thinks they could fix one of them by cloning Bob Uecker.

In the meantime, since the Brewers have yet to perfect the cloning technology, they're looking to hire a retail merchandising assistant.

Bobby Valentine sat down with reporters yesterday after interviewing for the managerial vacancy in Cleveland, and told reporters he doesn't know anything about the team, the AL Central or the American League. As one might imagine, that's raised a few red flags...but I also think Ken Macha might have said something similar if asked the same question after his interview in Milwaukee last year.

Speaking of people whose stock might be falling, Nationals Enquirer has a look at some of the red flags surrounding likely #1 overall pick Bryce Harper. If the Nats don't select Harper first overall, it's possible his salary demands and other factors could lead to him falling precipitously in the draft, and he could be a candidate for the Brewers. This topic also came up in yesterday's Mug comments, where Jeff made a great point:

One problem with Bryce is that he’s really young. By opting for community college, he’s getting himself into the draft a year earlier than high-school picks.

That’s good for him in the long run, but remember that the team that drafts him only cares about his first six years in the bigs.

Now, maybe Harper will be like A-Rod, show up and mash, but if he forces his way to the big leagues by age 19, he’s a FA at 25, with his prime ahead of him. "The potential to be one of the greatest players of all time" is only relevant if you’re buying some of his seasons of greatness.

The bloom is off the rose in San Diego, where Gaslamp Ball is now refusing to refer to Anthony Gwynn Jr. as "Tony" until he finishes a full season batting .300. I wouldn't have mentioned it, but it's a slow news day.

Since today's Mug is short, you'll probably have some time to kill once you're done reading it, and if you do, I highly recommend this Sporcle quiz asking for each team's career leaders in hits, home runs, wins and saves. I got 57.

Happy birthday today to David Riske, who turns 33.

Drink up.