SB Nation - Orlando Hernandez

Stop Saying Omar Minaya Only Goes After Latino Players

James Kannengieser — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:30:14 -0000

The "Omar Minaya only pursues Latino players" topic has appeared again this offseason and the propagators of this myth are out in full force. Perhaps it was brought on by the signings of Alex Cora, Henry Blanco and Elmer Dessens. Maybe embarrassing rubbish like this post is promoting it. Even the mainstream media has been involved, as Bill Madden of the Daily News, ~~deserving~~ winner of this year's J.G. Taylor Spink Award for excellence in baseball journalism, wrote the following in a recent column, only to have the word "Latin" later removed:

Mets? Did somebody say the Mets? They won't spend the money for Holliday, Bay or Lackey and apparently, they're only interested in signing low-budget Latin players...

It's sad that this topic still needs to be addressed. Looking at the racial makeup of the Mets 40-man roster, as provided by a comment from Mark last week, the Mets had 15 Latinos out of 39 players, or 38%. About 29% of MLB players are Latino, meaning the Mets have four more Latin American players on their roster than average. Wow, stop the presses! How many Latinos are presently on the World Champion Yankees' roster? Answer: 19 out of 37, good for 51%. This is irrefutable evidence that Brian Cashman only goes after Latino players. Let the Yankee fan outrage begin. Former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi signed Raul Ibanez, Carlos Silva and Adrian Beltre to free agent contracts in his short tenure, and traded for Miguel Olivo and Horacio Ramirez - he too must have only gone after Latinos!

There's more research to be done here I suppose, analyzing the racial breakdown of Mets trades, free agent contracts and the minor leagues under Omar. However, it's not worth mine or anyone's time indulging the uninformed masses who think a general manager would choose 1.5 WAR* Player A over 3.5 WAR Player B because Player A shares the same heritage.

* - If you like, substitute any metric or evaluator you think Omar and co. might use in lieu of WAR. The point remains the same.

Last winter, Omar's Mets were part of a blockbuster three team trade which included Mariners and Indians. In the biggest trade of his reign, at least in terms of player volume, he gave up four Latino players and received (gasp!) three white players in return. It had nothing to do with race. Omar wanted to upgrade the bullpen at seemingly any cost and he got his guy, J.J. Putz. Flawed evaluation of players? Almost certainly. Racial bias motivating a transaction? No, sorry. It's curious how transactions like this are conveniently ignored once the Omar racism watchdogs come out of their holes to spout absurdity. Usually, Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Orlando Hernandez and Luis Castillo are brought up with nary a mention of Tim Redding, Scott Schoeneweis, Darren Oliver or Gary Sheffield.

If you think Omar Minaya only goes after "certain players" it's because you want to believe the poorly performing GM of your favorite baseball team favors one race over another. It's because you want to believe he has some sort of scheme to decrease the number of non-Latinos in baseball, or to increase money paid out to Latinos in this country. Criticizing his moves in the strict baseball context is not enough for you - it has to become personal, an assault on Omar's character. As always, you're free to have these beliefs, but you're flat-out wrong.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 12:31:45 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

Manny Parra delivers a meatball to the Nationals Sunday.

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Some things to read while streamlining tech support.

There was a brief period of time this weekend where it looked like I'd be writing about a three game winning streak this morning and wondering if the Brewers could get back to .500 later today. Then, Bad Manny showed up and ruined all of that. 63% of the voters in the poll at that link think Parra will never be a productive major league pitcher. I went the other way, because Parra is still pretty young and could put it together, but it seems clear he's unlikely to develop consistency anytime soon.

The Brewers still have a pretty good chance to earn a series victory in Washington, as Yovani Gallardo takes the mound today. He needs 29 more strikeouts this season to become just the fourth Brewer ever to reach 200. He also needs two more wins to become just the third Brewer since the 2000 season to win 13 games.

If you missed it yesterday, and the site stats would suggest you did, TheJay and I both had notes on Prince Fielder: I took a look at the historical significance of Fielder's walks and TheJay speculated on Fielder's potential performance in the Midwest League. Of course after we spent half the day talking about him he went 0-for-4, just the second time in his last 14 games where he's failed to earn his way on base.

The Brewers open a three game series with the Reds tomorrow, and both teams will enter play with their rotation in a state of upheaval. For the Brewers, Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush will start on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, making their returns from the DL. The Reds, meanwhile, have yet to name a starter for Wednesday, but it won't be Aaron Harang, who underwent an emergency appendectomy over the weekend and could miss the rest of the season. Kip Wells is the likely candidate to replace him.

A quick side note: Is there such a thing as a non-emergency appendectomy? Why would a surgeon remove your appendix if it wasn't an urgent situation?

Roguejim has a look at the latest Elias rankings, with the Brewers still projected to have one Type A free agent and four Type B's. Felipe Lopez's recent play, though, has pushed him up to the edge of Type A status.

In the minors:

The Timber Rattlers drew 5459 fans to yesterday's game and set a new franchise record for single season attendance. With Brett Lawrie bobblehead day still remaining on their schedule, the Rattlers could surpass 250,000 fans this season.
The Rattlers also have (or, in the case of Brett Lawrie, had) two of the 50 youngest players in Low A ball, according to Project Prospect. Efrain Nieves is the other one.
What the Timber Rattlers don't have, though, is one of the Best Team Names in the Minors, at least according to Wezen-ball. The Brevard County Manatees do, though.

With back to back wins on Friday and Saturday, CoolStandings had upgraded the Brewer playoff chances to 1.8%, but they fell back to .7% with the loss yesterday. If that stat wasn't enough for you, Tyler Maas has ~~ten~~ nine signs your team is falling out of playoff contention.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed Armando Benitez to a minor league deal.
Cardinals: Placed Kyle Lohse on the DL with a strained groin.
Mariners: Released reliever Luis Pena.
Marlins: Placed Brendan Donnelly on the DL with a calf strain.
Mets: Designated infielder Andy Green for assignment.
Phillies: Placed third baseman Greg Dobbs on the DL with a strained calf.
Red Sox: Designated reliever Fernando Cabrera for assignment.
Rockies: Placed Aaron Cook on the DL with shoulder soreness and signed Russ Ortiz and Jason Giambi.

Albert Pujols is batting just .279 since the All Star Game, and (gasp!) his OPS over that time is under 1.000. Clearly, without question, we should abolish the Home Run Derby.

If you're looking to read some in-depth analysis to get your brain working on Monday morning, then reading the Mug was clearly the wrong decision. Instead, you should check out Baseball Analysts' look at batters' decisions to swing at 3-2 pitches, and the possibility they're doing it too often.

On this day in 1993, Kevin Reimer went 6-for-6 as the Brewers beat the A's 7-6 in 13 innings. Reimer also drew an intentional walk to reach base a seventh time.

Happy birthday today to Everett Stull, who appeared in 22 games as a Brewer in 2000 and 2002 and turns 38 today. Happy belated birthdays to Mark DiFelice (33) and Zach Braddock (22), who celebrated their birthdays yesterday.

Oh, and long before he threw the banana, Orlando Hernandez had everyone doing The El Duque.

Drink up.

In Defense of the General Manager

U-God — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 16:10:46 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

The man on the right is better at his job than people outside of Chicago give credit for. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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When OSFIB posted this link today, I found my muse for the off day. As most of our readers (and White Sox fans in general) have probably noticed, ripping on Kenny Williams and calling him a below average GM has almost become accepted as common knowledge outside of the state of Illinois. Even other SBN sites have jumped in on it. The thing is, it hasn't been a correct assumption for a while. Further analysis (and an almost complete GM history) after the jump.

The man has made his mistakes and there is no denying that. The Todd Ritchie trade was awful, giving up Ray Durham for Jon Adkins still hurts, and who can forget the confusing multiple trades for Carl Everett and Roberto Alomar. And then there was his unfortunate attacks on Frank Thomas after the Big Hurt had some disparaging remarks towards the only organization he had ever known. The thing is, the man has improved. Over the course of his career he went from the sheep being fleeced to the man holding the shears. Over the past few season Kenny has turned minor leaguers and stable veterans into Freddy Garcia, Jim Thome, Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Matt Thornton, Orlando Cabrera, and Carlos Quentin. He snagged Bobby Jenks off of waivers from the Angels. He brought A.J. Pierzynski, Tadahito Iguchi, Jermaine Dye, and Orlando Hernandez in as free agents during a time when other teams were more desirable. He kept Paul Konerko, Mark Buehrle, and Jermaine Dye in town when they could have made more money elsewhere. He gave Ozzie Guillen his first chance to manage a baseball team. He played a large part in the magic that was 2005. He took over an ineffective draft plan, and since he started being more hands on with it the Sox have drafted Aaron Poreda, Gordon Beckham, Daniel Hudson, Trayce Thompson, Jared Mitchell, and Jordan Danks. He opened a pipeline to Cuba using Contreras and El Duque that has helped result in Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo.

Does he still have his flaws? Yes. His hands were pretty much tied during the Nick Swisher fiasco. He still tends to get tunnel vision and focus on getting a player no matter what or when (Ken Griffey Jr and Jake Peavy). But he isn't the rube he was back in the day. The article OSFIB linked us compared Kenny Williams to a gambler that loses a good deal of money. I like the gambler comparison, but I really don't see the second half being true. This could be me simply being a homer. I do tend to give KW the benefit of the doubt with his moves, but it's not as if he hasn't earned it. He inherited an okay team with no farm system to speak of. He has given us one losing season, two trips to the playoffs, and improving farm system, and a World Series championship. He's even starting to get more credit from actual journalists, which is nice. Is he the best GM in baseball? No, granted I don't know who I would give that title to. Do I believe he is in the top 10? Yes. The man does his best to make sure we remain competetive every season without completely mortgaging the future. Remember that the next time you read about how big of a stooge or over-aggressive moron Kenny Williams is.

GM History from 2000-2008 courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 14:49:01 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Prince Fielder hits a three-run home run off Homer Bailey in the third inning of last night's game.

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Some things to read while condemning yourself to eternal torment.

Last night's Brewer win was filled with memorable moments, not the least of which was Braden Looper's three hit night, the first one by a Brewer pitcher since Brad Woodall did it in 1998. Tom H. didn't remember the guy at all, and I'm embarassed to admit I didn't either. 1998 was Woodall's only season as a Brewer.

Looper also gave up a home run to Joey Votto, putting him in sole possession of first place in the National League with 23 home runs allowed. Looper set a career high with 25 home runs allowed last season, 1.1 per nine innings pitched. This season he's giving up 1.9 home runs over the same span, putting him on pace to allow 35 this season. That would be the second highest total in team history, behind Wayne Franklin's 36 in 2003.

But Votto's home run wasn't just any home run, it was the 12th longest shot in Great American Ball Park history.

After taking a moment to reflect on winning the Home Run Derby, Prince Fielder stepped back into the box and picked right back up where he left off. After picking up his 23rd home run and two walks last night, Fielder has reached base safely in 20 consecutive games and is hitting .373/.511/.731 over that stretch. He's moved up to second in the NL in OBP, third in slugging and second in OPS.

Seth McClung was a rare dark shadow on the Brewers' bright and sunny day last night, walking the first two batters he faced and allowing a three run home run to the third. View From Bernie's Chalet says McClung and Villanueva give the Brewers two bullpen arms you don't want to see in a close game right now.

Sheffield's House was upset by Craig Counsell's performance in the #2 spot last night, and wonders why he wasn't asked to bunt in two early at bats. Maybe Counsell should have been asked to bunt, but I think there's a more pressing question: If Craig Counsell is so inept with the bat that you'd like to take it out of his hands in important situations, why is he hitting second in the lineup while Casey McGehee and Mike Cameron, among others, are batting fifth or lower?

Dave Bush suffered what is being called "a minor setback" in his rehab and will not be available to pitch on Monday as planned. Even if the setback is minor, Bush had only thrown 91 pitches over two rehab appearances (and just 40 in his last one), so he'll probably need at least one more start to get stretched out. Mike Burns will start Monday instead.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has video of interviews with Trevor Hoffman and Prince Fielder from the All Star Game. Hoffman says it's time for the Brewers to "kick it in gear." I couldn't agree more.

How far did the Brewers drop during their cold spell before the break? Beyond the Box Score gives them a 22% shot at winning the Central, and Jeff Lubbers of Baseball Digest Daily, who picked the Crew to represent the NL in the World Series before the season, is now picking the Dodgers instead.

Jason Kendall is hitting .237/.327/.279 in 2009, but continues to play consistently, and his defense and game-calling abilities are typically cited as the reason why. Obviously, "game calling ability" is hard to quantify, but Viva El Birdos ranked Kendall around the middle of the pack defensively through the first half of 2009.

I recently participated in the SB Nation NL Central Roundtable, moderated by Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score. Follow the first link to head over to Crawfish Boxes and check out part 1 of the roundtable, where we discuss potential moves at the trading deadline.

In the minors:

Rob Neyer was at the AAA All Star Game Wednesday, and was wowed by R.J. Swindle's curveball. Because I was living in the TV Dark Ages (Iowa) during Swindle's brief run with the Crew, Wednesday's game was my first opportunity to see it too, and it's amusing to watch, to be sure.
The Brewers have added a catcher to their list of undrafted free agent signings: former CSU-Pueblo catcher Tony Pechek. Pechek was a 2005 draftee of the Tigers, and has bounced around between four colleges since then.

Are you watching more Brewer games this season? Someone must be, because the Brewers have moved all the way up to third in Nielsen's list of most-watched baseball broadcasts, taken by percentage of households.

The Brewers dropped from 11th to 16th in MLB FanHouse's Power Rankings.

Around the majors:

Cubs: Signed B.J. Ryan to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Will allow Orlando Hernandez to become a free agent on Monday so he can throw the banana for other teams.
Rockies: Signed Matt Herges to a minor league deal and designated Matt Belisle for assignment.
Royals: Designated Tony Pena Jr. for assignment.

Ever wonder what the Home Run Derby would be like in a park where no one can hit home runs? Citi Field is rumored to be hosting the 2013 All Star Game, so I guess you'll find out. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Inside the Majors is a site run by former Blue Jays Assistant GM Bart Given, and he frequently tackles reader questions about things only someone who's been inside a front office would know. In this post, for example, he answers questions about reasons to or not to put an injured minor leaguer on the 60-day DL, scouting of umpires and travel arrangements. Interesting stuff.

I think some of the misconceptions on the relationship between the mainstream media and internet-based writers are summed up nicely in the results of this Penn State survey of bloggers. Of the 210 bloggers surveyed (including me), 85% said they view their work as sports journalism, but 75% said they don't see themselves as rivals of professional journalists. That seems about right. (h/t FakeTeams)

If you're having a hard time making bullpen decisions in your day to day life, or just need someone else around to stubbornly insist on nodding in all situations, perhaps you should buy this Ned Yost Bobblehead off Craigslist. It drinks a lot less coffee than the real Ned Yost.

Happy birthday today to former Brewer Pete Ladd, who posted a 4.32 ERA and 33 saves over four seasons as a Brewer from 1982-1985, and turns 53 today.

Finally, thanks to everyone who stopped by yesterday's Mug, emailed, Facebooked or otherwise contacted me to offer your condolences yesterday. As hard as the last 36 hours have been, it's nice to know I have the support of many of you behind me.

Drink up.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:54:59 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

5 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez can't come up with a double, hit by Milwaukee Brewers' Jason Kendall, as Carlos Villanueva (12) and Mark DiFelice (45) react in the bullpen during the eighth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 24, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Some things to read while making my breakfast.

In possibly the best news of the day, Braden Looper does not expect to miss a start after taking a line drive off his pitching arm in last night's game. Tom H. isn't as optimistic. I'm assuming we'll get another update in a day or two.

The Brewers could hardly afford another injury to a starter, as Mike Burns is already being pressed into service today and Seth McClung will start Saturday. If Looper can't make his start, the Brewers will likely have no choice but to recall Manny Parra from AAA. CZWief is starting to compare this year's rotation to the disaster that was 2002.

Speaking of today's game, the Brewers will likely face Denard Span, who the Twins are expected to activate, but will not face Nick Punto, who has been sent home to have his ribs examined.

Beyond the Box Score has Pitch F/x leaderboards. Several Brewers make appearances, but the most interesting stat belongs to Yovani Gallardo. Opposing hitters are swinging at just 40% of his pitches, the second lowest percentage in all of baseball.

Wow, are we ever awash in minor league notes today:

2009 first round pick Eric Arnett had quite the day yesterday. First, he ate at Pizza Hut, then he allowed a run on a hit, two walks and an HBP in one inning of work in his pro debut for Helena, and was later profiled in the Helena Independent Record. (h/t Brew Crew Online)
Alcides Escobar continues to draw notice in AAA. Jason Grey of ESPN listed Escobar as one of two prospects who may make a position switch to accelerate their rise to the majors. Matt Patterson of the Oklahoman profiled Escobar before a recent game against the RedHawks.
Adam McCalvy has a profile of Zach Braddock, who the Brewers recently promoted to AA. Braddock is working to overcome bipolar disorder.
The 2009 Nashville Sounds are a huge improvement over their 2008 counterpart and their stadium underwent some offseason improvement, but At The Old Ball Game notes that the Sounds are still averaging just 4,067 fans per game, the second lowest total in the Pacific Coast League.
New fan favorite Cameron Garfield continues to draw attention: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com says his 5-for-5, 3 RBI debut for Helena was easily the best debut so far.
Brewer 43rd round pick Kyle Dhanani was profiled in his hometown paper. The reporter went the extra mile by calling his mom for the "analysis" quote.
The Brewers also signed an undrafted free agent, pitcher Andrew Dunn of Southern Illinois University.
While those two players begin their professional careers, Chris Duffy might be ending his. He's been placed on the inactive list in Nashville. Apparently he left the team weeks ago for the birth of his child, and never returned.

Looking for another flooding update? Tom H. has you covered with notes on the DOT's reaction and continuing work to determine the cost of the damage.

Beyond the Box Score dropped the Brewers from 16th to 17th in their most recent Power Rankings, but that's still good enough for first place in the Central.

Around the league:

A's: Placed Josh Outman on the DL with an elbow sprain.
Braves: Kenshin Kawakami left last night's start after taking a line drive off his neck, but is not expected to miss a start.
Cubs: Placed Reed Johnson on the DL with back issues.
Indians: Acquired reliever Jose Veras from the Yankees for cash.
Marlins: Placed closer Matt Lindstrom on the DL with an elbow sprain.
Mets: Designated lefty Jon Switzer for assignment.
Nationals: Designated Kip Wells for assignment.
Yankees: Designated Angel Berroa for assignment.

There are also two former Brewer notes to pass along today: Baseball America notes that the Twins released Ben Hendrickson, and Bill Ladson of Nationals.com reports Ronnie Belliard is considering retiring after the season. Belliard has picked up just two at-bats since June 10.

Just when you thought it was safe to go outside, the Oklahoma City RedHawks have activated Orlando Hernandez to throw the banana.

I'm guessing there are probably a few people reading this site who consistently watch Brewer games, right? Any of you watch closely enough to identify which Brewers wear protection on their elbows? If you do, Plunk Everyone could use your help.

The movie is probably dead now so it's all a moot point, but the entire script for the Moneyball movie is available online, if you're interested. Sam Miller of the OC Register says the script "sort of works."

If you currently have a crappy sales job (selling sand in the desert, for example) and you're looking for a slightly easier gig, maybe you should join the Marlins Community Sales Force.

Oh, and today is the second anniversary of Manny Parra's AAA perfect game.

Drink up.

FRIDAY ANGELS ROUNDUP: Still Waiting? Scioscia Needs A Wake-up Call

WiHaloFan — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 13:45:12 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

6 months ago: Los Angeles Angels first baseman Robb Quinlan (39) throws out Tampa Bay Rays' Reid Brignac from a sitting position after making a diving stop in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels in St. Petersburg, Fla., Thursday, June 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

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Up next for Angels: Friday vs. San Diego - Los Angeles Times
Matt Palmer takes the mound against Chad Gaudin.

Angels staggering after 11-1 loss to Rays - Sports - OCRegister.com
"Where there are options that come up that are better (than the status quo), we will make moves," he said. "I think there are some things obviously we've talked about and we will continue to consider."

We will continue to consider? For how long? Good Lord.

Angels' loss tries Mike Scioscia's patience - Los Angeles Times
After another in a long line of games in which his sloppy team made mistakes in the field, on the basepaths and on the mound, the Angels' manager said he was done waiting and threatened to take action if things don't turn around soon. "That's a bad game," a grim-faced Scioscia said after watching his team get blitzed, 11-1, by the Tampa Bay Rays. "We need to get better. We need to play with consistency. And if it's the guys in that [clubhouse] that aren't going to do it, then we're going to have to look at some changes."

Again, "then we're going to have to look at some changes." WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR??

The Associated Press: Orlando Hernandez agrees with Rangers
"Orlando Hernandez, who has been part of four World Series championship teams, agreed to a minor league contract Thursday with the Rangers. The right-hander is expected to join Triple-A Oklahoma City for workouts Sunday, and could start pitching for the RedHawks soon after that."

This is what an organization who is trying to win their division does...they go out and try new things, get players who may help in achieving that goal. This is at least the third player Texas has picked up in the last couple weeks in an attempt to improve their club. I'm not saying Hernandez is a good player, who will lead the Rangers to a championship, but at least the Rangers' front office is doing SOMETHING.

The Angels in summary? - Angels blog - OCRegister.com

"Fair? Not fair? Probably not 100 percent accurate, but certainly fair, as far as I’m concerned.", Sam Miller referencing MH252525's comment during last night's game thread.

Ervin Santana’s velocity - Angels blog - OCRegister.com
"Last year, his fastball averaged 94.4 mph; the year before, when he struggled, it was 92.2 mph. This year, so far, he’s at 90.7."

Sam also writes about Santana's fastball (with another reference to HH)

American League West Division Draft Impressions - Minor League Ball
The Angels, blessed with extra picks, needed to find a good balance between affordability and talent, and I think they did a good job.

Interesting article from John Sickels.

Angels draft boxing legend Ali's son - angelsbaseball.com
Asaad Ali, the youngest son of boxing great Muhammad Ali, was selected.

Maybe he can add some punch to the line-up. Get it? Boxer...punch? Ah, nevermind.

FARK.com: (4431980) Photoshop this paragon of manliness
Interesting, bizarre and amusing news stories, along with regular photo manipulation contests.

This is some of the funniest shit I've seen in along time. We should try it here on HH, I'm sure we have few creative folks to make some truly side-splitting photos.

Have you been getting penis enlargement ads?
There's a malware program going around that creates links to advertising and causes multiple pop-up ads (even if you have pop-ups turned off in your browser). It also disables a computer anti-virus, anti-malware program and prevents a computer from accessing updates and removal tools. I've been fighting this thing for a few days and haven't been able to get rid of it. Be careful what you download.

I've got a fever:

Poll

Angels manager Mike Scioscia states the Angels are "considering" making some changes. Those changes should be/have been made...

Last month

113 votes

Now

110 votes

Once the Angels fall further behind the Rangers

17 votes

September

2 votes

Next season

7 votes

249 votes | Poll has closed

Friday a.m. Rangers things

Adam J. Morris — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:53:36 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

6 months ago: Texas Rangers' Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21) congratulates Nelson Cruz, right, after scoring on a sacrifice fly by Marlon Byrd in the second inning of a baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays in Arlington, Texas, Thursday, June 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Only one run yesterday, part of the continuing struggles of the Ranger offense, but Jeff Wilson notes that that one run was enough, thanks to Kevin Millwood and the defense.

Evan Grant runs down a list of ten key things from yesterday's game.

Josh Hamilton is expected to be out four to six weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a torn abdominal muscle, but he is planning on coming back sooner.

Anthony Andro has some notes about the Rangers signing Orlando Hernandez to a minor league deal, and an update on Dustin Nippert and Willie Eyre, both of whom threw live batting practice yesterday. I remain underwhelmed by the El Duque addition, and certainly hope we don't have to see him in Arlington this year.

Wilson writes about Ron Washington's option getting picked up for the 2010 season, and how it comes right as he's facing some significant challenges.

Randy Galloway has a column about Washington being the longest-tenured head coach/manager in the Metroplex now, among the four pro teams.

Phillies vs. Mets: May 1-3

Matt Swartz — Fri, 01 May 2009 05:24:31 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Boan - AP

The Mets have declared themselves the "team to beat" again. Jimmy Rollins plans to do just that. (AP Photo/Jeffrey M. Boan)

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The series that I've had on my calendar for months finally begins on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park, and I am excited to go to both Friday and Saturday's game. The Phillies/Mets rivalry has been a particularly thrilling one to go through as a Phillies fan, since the Phillies clearly have jumped ahead in the budding rivalry. After two straight division titles, the Phillies are already 2.5 games ahead of the Mets coming into this weekend. A sweep in either direction changes the complexity of the division early on. Neither team will trot out their ace this series, which is fine by me given Santana's early season dominance. The rest of the Mets rotation and all of the Phillies rotation have been less than stellar thus far. The Phillies poor starting pitching performance seems to be mostly homerun based, while the Mets has been control and command problems. Given the persistence of walk and strikeout issues and the volatility in performance in homeruns, that seems to point in the Phillies favor. The Mets offense has not been particularly productive thus far, but they are a great hitting team who is a threat to strike at any time. Particularly, the middle of their order can be deadly. The Phillies will hope to keep them struggling further this weekend.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Chan Ho Park (R) vs. Mike Pelfrey (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Oliver Perez (L)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. John Maine (R)

I did a little bit of extra detail for this series, so let me know what you think. Specifically, I added this season's statistics next to each player's name as one month of data is now somewhat useful information and valuable in addition to looking at the projections of top systems. I also include pitcher vs. batter matchups for the entire staff of both teams, rather than just the starters. I still hesitate to value this information too strongly, and I still think it's best to look at tendencies towards certain types of hitters and pitchers rather than small sample sizes, but especially for batter/pitcher matchups with several homeruns or very out of whack K/BB numbers, this could certainly be useful information. Let me know if anyone has other suggestions about what type of stuff to include in these matchups. If it's not too hard, I'll try to include them for subsequent series. Go Phils!

LINE UP

The Mets have a few superstars in their lineup, and mediocre talent elsewhere. Jose Reyes and David Wright remain the best left side of an infield of any pair in the game. Both have struggled in the early going, but should expect great seasons again. David Wright may be one of the very best players in baseball, and despite the Mets' fans irrational claims of choking, Wright is an excellent hitter in all situations. Daniel Murphy is the second hitter in the lineup and is an awkward bridge from Reyes to Wright/Delgado/Beltran. Murphy is a mediocre players in reality, whose great average last season and early this season is belied by incredible and unsustainable luck on balls in play. Delgado is not the hitter he once was, and is showing signs again early of hitting for less power. Beltran has been excellent in the five hole, as expected. Passed that point, Ryan Church is only okay, and Castillo and Castro are pretty weak hitters. Castillo seemingly has become healthy this year, and thus improved on his awful 2008, but he's still a powerless hitter.

1) SS Jose Reyes (S): .284/.364/.386

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

2) LF Daniel Murphy (L): .324/.373/.426

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .280/.372/.390

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .250/.346/.471

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) CF Carlos Beltran (S): .388/.473/.538

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

6) RF Ryan Church (L): .313/.397/.448

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

7) 2B Luis Castillo (S): .370/.433/.444

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

8) C Ramon Castro (R): .233/.303/.333

proj: .250/.315/.450
bb: 8.5%
k: 25%
gb: 35%
iff: 16%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he pops up a lot, doesn't beat out infield hits, and is a very strong pull hitter
s/c/z: good eye but below average contact
r/l: .710 vs .765 ops; 2.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .759; a lot more doubles on road
p/o: very disticnt pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers, specifically a babip issue-- probably hits fewer popups against them

BENCH

The Mets bench is not particularly good, especially from the left side where they only have Cora and Reed. Tatis was bound to regress this year after a revival in 2008, but he has hit the ball well so far. Sheffield seems to be just barely holding on.

IF Alex Cora (L): .238/.346/.333

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .348/.407/.609

proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .273/.333/.455

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Gary Sheffield (R): .167/.324/.367

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

C Omir Santos (R): .269/.269/.500

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: C Brian Schneider (L): .143/.250/.190

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

The Mets have what may be the best pitcher in baseball in Johan Santana, but luckily, the Phillies do not have to play him this weekend. He has been even better than his normal self this year with an ERA barely over 1. The rest of the Mets rotation has been terrible. The Mets seem to be considering making irrational changes to their rotation, which certainly be nice for the Phillies. None of Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez are very good pitchers but they are all servicable pitchers going through rough patches. Perez seems to be the most questionable, and the Phillies will play him Saturday night. He has performed well against the Phillies in his career, though the Phillies may be catching him at a weak time. Pelfrey will pitch first, though, on Friday night. He has struggled with both too many walks and not enough strikeouts this year. His success continues to be based on his ability to get groundballs, and he has continued to get them this year. Last year's performance was largely related to luck on avoiding homeruns, but this year, he has been unlucky with homeruns/flyball. The Phillies square off against John Maine on Sunday. His health was a question at the end of last year, and maybe that is true again this year. He is having control problems in the early going. I've heard it said that could be indicative of elbow issues, but I don't know if that is true.

FRIDAY'S OPPONENT: Mike Pelfrey (R): 6.32 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 3.4 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.62 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 2/9, 3 BB, 2 K, 0 XBH
Utley: 3/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/6, 0 BB, 0 K,
Rollins: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 1 BB

SATURDAY'S OPPONENT: Oliver Perez (L): 9.31 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.81 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 7/25, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Howard: 2/22, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 4/15, 1 HR, 6 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Feliz: 1/17, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 3/13, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 2/6, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY'S OPPONENT: John Maine (R): 5.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.79 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Livan Hernandez (R): 6.33 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.94 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cairo: 2/19, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Johan Santana (L): 1.10 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 12.1 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.10 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies

Ibanez: 12/34, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 3/19, 0 BB, 6 K
Rollins: 1/17, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/18, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Werth: 5/16, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Howard: 6/14, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Cairo: 3/12, 2 2B, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Victorino: 1/12, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

The revitalized Mets bullpen has been less than shut down thus far. K-Rod has been pretty decent so far, although it is early. Putz has been wild and failed to strike many people out early on. Certainly, this does not mean that the moves failed, but that won't stop Mets fans from overreacting. Other than those two, the Mets bullpen is pretty average. Feliciano is a very good LOOGY who gives Ryan Howard fits, and does pretty well against Utley too. The Mets also have one other lefty recently jointly, Japanese player Ken Takahashi. There isn't much information for me to go on there.

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 2.08 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 12.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.29 ERA, 26% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/22, 1 BB, 9 K, 0 XBH
Stairs: 0/6, 3 Bb, 2 K
Cairo: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1 IBB

J.J. Putz (R): 4.09 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 3.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.08 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Cairo: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 sac
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 3.68 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 12.3 K/9, 0.00 HR/9, 1.27 FIP, 72% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 4/23, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/21, 1 HR, 0 BB, 7 K
Rollins: 5/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 1/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Sean Green (R): 8.49 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.06 FIP, 60% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cairo: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 1.74 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.98 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell has not played vs. Phillies

Darren O'Day (R): 0.00 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.72 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 72% fb, 28% sl
r/l: 2.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; .709 vs .766
h/a: not enough info

O'Day vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/1, 1 IBB

Ken Takahashi (L)

Takahashi has yet to pitch in the majors and only has thrown to 48 hitters in the minors this year. So there is not much MLB or MiLB information on him. In Japan, he seemed to be an aging mediocre pitcher, but I imagine he's there to retire the lefties when the Mets are hoarding Pedro Feliciano.

PHILLIES

LINE UP

The heart of the Phillies lineup leans further to the left than Ralph Nader. The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations. Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties. The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is on the disabled list now with a strained rib cage, so Chris Coste and Lou Marson have been splitting time with Coste starting more often. Lou Marson is a pretty highly touted catching prospect who had an extraordinary year in AA last year, though has yet to hit for much power. Carlos Ruiz had a setback but seems to be likely to return soon. This season, the Phillies have seen Rollins struggle at the top of the lineup, though he has shown a few signs of life recently. Utley and Ibanez have both been on fire and have carried the team. The offense has been spectacular thus far, mostly because of those two, and as Howard continues to hit the ball hard, the team is probably going to see a breakout from him soon too. Though Howard has only homered four times in the first twenty games, he has hit an extraordinary number of deep fly balls to the track, and no less than in seasons passed. I expect a homerun tear out of Howard soon, though reading through that, I kind of feel like I just predicted the sun to rise.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .207/.241/.293

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .286/.337/.476

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .342/.461/.644

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .288/.367/.525

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .260/.372/.438

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .359/.433/.718

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .323/.395/.477

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Chris Coste (R): .175/.267/.275

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

BENCH

Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side. Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power. Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs. From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP. Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs. The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo. He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions. Cairo has failed to hit anything yet, and is bound to be on the way out.

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .176/.200/.353

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .111/.200/.111

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .308/.400/.769

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R): .000/.000/.000

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Lou Marson (R): .235/.350/.294

proj: .270/.345/.400
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 59% in minors in 08
iff: 7% in minors in 08
ifh: ?
babip: very above average in minors, bizarrely high on flyballs and groundballs, and this seems to be without a significant reason
s/c/z: ?
r/l: better k/bb in minors vs rhp but tough to tell
h/a: 0.7 vs 1.5 k/bb; much higher infield fly rate on road (10.6% vs 3.5%)
p/o: ?
other: high walk rate in minors may be at risk in majors if he doesn't develop power

DISABLED LIST: Carlos Ruiz (R): .273/.333/.364

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

ROTATION

The Phillies rotation has struggled a lot early, though they seem to be mostly struggling with bad luck rather than bad performances. Their walk and strikeout rates across the board are indicative that we should expect similar performances to last season, and their groundball rates haven't been out of the norm either. However, all of them seem to struggling on homeruns per flyball. This is known to be a luck based statistic, with little variance in skill level, so it is somewhat hard to believe that they would necessarily continue to perform this badly. However, it does seem coincidental that all of them would struggle with it at once. The Phillies go with Chan Ho Park Friday, in what is a very important fourth start for him. He has been poor in one start and mediocre in the other two, and the Phillies do have J.A. Happ ready to replace him if they want. His strong Spring Training performance was so good that it shattered any argument of "small sample size" and instead calls into question a biased sample, where he may have faced some weaker hitters. Even still, he seems to have a K/BB of about 2/1 thus far and that has to be a good sign. Hopefully he can fix up his luck on homeruns per flyball and batting average on balls in play. On Saturday, the Phillies will turn to Jamie Moyer. Moyer certaily is going to show his age at some point, and he really can't be expected to pitch until he's 50, but his poor performance this year also seems luck driven as his core statistics of strikeouts, walks, and groundballs seem in line with recent tendencies. The Phillies will wrap up with Joe Blanton on Sunday. Blanton seems to be missing a lot of bats, striking out an above normal 8.8 per nine, but when he doesn't miss those bats, the bats seem to hit the ball awful hard. Blanton hopes the Mets will make weaker contact.

FRIDAY'S STARTER: Chan Ho Park (R): 7.16 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 6.42 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 4/14, 1 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/15, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 3/12, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 5/10, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 2/8, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Delgado: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (2 IBB), 1 K
Reyes: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY'S STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.09 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.74 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Delgado: 31/81, 7 2B, 8 HR, 8 BB (2 IBB), 9 K, 3 HBP
Beltran: 11/54, 3 2B, 9 BB (1 IBB), 9 K
Reyes: 11/38, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 14/35, 4 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Sheffield: 13/27, 1 2B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 2 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 4/14, 2 2B, 3 BB,0 K
Castro: 0/10, 1 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Cora: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 8.41 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 2.7 HR/9, 6.08 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 7.27 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 5.89 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/20, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 5/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Delgado: 7/15, 1 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Brett Myers (R): 4.83 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.24 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs. Mets:

Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Castillo: 6/37, 4 BB, 11 K
Beltran: 10/32, 4 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Wright: 5/27, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 5 K, 2 HBP
Church: 3/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 10 K, 1 Sac
Cora: 2/12, 4 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Sheffield: 5/9, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 2/3, 2 2B, 1 K
Reed: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but has gotten through a few tough saves anyway. However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball if he is healthy. His health itself has been in question as he has been resting an injured knee for a few days. He has not gone on the disabled list and may not, and we will probably no more after a Friday bullpen session. In his stead, Ryan Madson has closed out one game successfully in one try. Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009. He has had a few bad moments and a few moments of dominance thus far. The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May. Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen. Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man. Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday. Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while. He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times. Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible. The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far. It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA< 5.2 BB/9, 12.5 K/9, 3.1 HR/9, 6.98 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Delgado: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.60 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 13.5 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.38 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Delgado: 3/17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 HBP
Reyes: 7/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Beltran: 4/14, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/8, 1 BB,0 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis; 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 10.80 ERA, 8.1 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 5.4 HR/9, 11.28 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Delgado: 4/11, 1 2B, 4 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Castillo: 1/6, 2 Bb, 1 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 5.23 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 7.05 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs. Mets:

Reyes: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.97 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 6.65 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Delgado: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Beltran: 3/12, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/9, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Church: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Castro: 0/5, 0 BB,1 K
Cora: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 1.50 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Delgado: 3/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

J.A. Happ (L): 4.05 ERA, 4.05 BB/9, 7.43 K/9, 3.85 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/5, 1 Bb, 1 K
Beltran: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 1/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Delgado: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 4/25, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 15:43:11 -0000

Some things to read while acknowledging that these pumpkin chocolate chip cookies may be the greatest ever.

Today's collection of links is actually the largest since the end of the season, so let's get right to it.

If you've been reading the site over the weekend you likely know all of this news, but in case you've been away all weekend, here's what you missed:

Dale Sveum will be back for 2009 after all, as hitting coach. (as noted in this FanShot)
Craig Counsell's option for 2009 was declined. He could still return as a free agent, of course.
Mike Maddux won't be back either, after being "overwhelmed by a huge deal" to take over as pitching coach in Texas. The Brewers reportedly offered him a multi-year deal. (Noted in this FanShot) The Newberg Report has a story from the Rangers' side.
Joe Dillon also won't be back. The A's claimed him off waivers after the Brewers DFA'd him last week.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Brewers' offer to CC Sabathia was in fact for $100 million, but the contract was for five years, not four. For me, this removes any possibility Sabathia will return. (noted in this FanShot)
The Brewers have until tomorrow to decide if Mike Cameron will return in 2009.

Now, other stuff. The Fall GM meetings begin today, giving Doug Melvin the first chance to sit across the table from new Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik. Murray Chass seems to think hiring Zduriencik was the wrong decision, mainly because he had a profile of Kim Ng all ready to go. Of course, everyone expects most of the conversation at the meetings to be about Jake Peavy, but it sounds like Hank Blalock's name will come up as well.

One would assume Doug Melvin is at least listening to offers for J.J. Hardy. The Junkball Blues, meanwhile, crunched the numbers to figure out what kind of production would be needed from Hardy and Alcides Escobar to justify moving Hardy to third and Bill Hall out of the lineup.

Planning on making a trip to Vegas? Current odds have the Brewers at 15-to-1 to win the 2009 World Series. The odds would have to get a lot better before I'd be interested. Right now, 15-to-1 is a better shot than 19 other teams have, and tied with the Dodgers and Twins. (h/t Redleg Nation)

Tim Kurkijian says the Sabathia Sweepstakes is the third most interesting story of the offseason. With Sabathia the Brewers had the sixth best starting rotation in all of baseball, according to Beyond the Box Score.

Sabathia, Ray Durham and Russell Branyan all filed for free agency over the weekend, joining these players:

Angels Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera
Athletic Alan Embree
Cub Kerry Wood and also Henry Blanco,
Mariners Raul Ibanez, Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo
Marlins Mark Hendrickson, Arthur Rhodes
Mets Pedro Martinez, Luis Ayala, Tony Armas, Moises Alou, Ricardo Rincon, Ramon Martinez and also Orlando Hernandez
Phillies So Taguchi, Tom Gordon
Pirates Doug Mientkiewicz, Chris Gomez, Jason Michaels, Luis Rivas
Rockies Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik

At this point I feel obligated to remind you that Orlando Hernandez is free to throw the banana for other teams.

FanGraphs has built the All Free Agent Bargain Team. There are some decent players on there, but that team would lose most of the time.

As we look into the future, few things are abolutely certain, but we can say this: despite boatloads of other teams making the exodus from spring training sites in Florida to Arizona, the Red Sox are committed to training in Florida through 2038.

It's a good thing we'll probably have some time to learn to say his name: The Pirates have signed an 18-year-old shortstop from South Africa named Mpho Ngoepe. There has never been a South African player in the major leagues. Have there been any from anywhere in Africa? I do not know.

Indians minor leaguer Randy Newsom's blogs from Venezuela are really making me want to go see a game there.

Finally, let's say you're the Washington Nationals. You lost 102 games in 2008, the franchise's first 100 loss season since 1976. You set a modern era single season record for lowest attendance in a new ballpark. You could count the number of fans listening to your games on the radio or watching them on TV on your fingers and toes. Do you honestly believe people are going to come out in hordes to buy your new jerseys? You're invited to join them at the unveiling Thursday. Bring a friend, otherwise you might be there all alone.

Drink up.

2008 Mets Post-Mortem: The Cost Of Injuries

Eric Simon — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:00:07 -0000

If you want to know how a team with a $138 million payroll can miss the playoffs, take a gander at the lineup. Not that one. I mean the one in queue outside the trainer's room. Injuries are a part of the game, and some players certainly carry higher risks of injury than others. Older players and players with prior health problems are obvious candidates for a trip or two to the disabled list. Especially high-risk individuals are those injury double-threats: Aging players who have a laundry list of past ailments and afflictions (see: Alou, Moises).

Every team suffers its share of games lost to the disabled list. The Yankees had Jorge Posada, Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain all spend time on the shelf; the Red Sox missed David Ortiz, Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling for varying lengths of time; the Braves missed Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine at one point or another, so the Mets clearly aren't on an island with respect to busted goods.

I wanted to know exactly how many man-games the Mets lost due to injury this season. So, armed with their transaction ledger, salary data, schedule and my trusty spreadsheet, I had a look-see at how many games individual Mets players missed while on the disabled list. A few caveats:

I only counted time on the disabled list; missed games while injured but on the active roster were not counted.
I guesstimated slightly with respect to the day a player went on/came off the disabled list. As a rule, and to be conservative, I counted both days as days on the active roster (i.e. *not* disabled list days).
For the sake of simplicity, I counted pitcher missed days the same as hitter missed days. I figured it wasn't worth the added complexity of figuring out missed starts, etc., so all team games were treated equally.
I didn't include Tony Armas's or Trot Nixon's missed days because #$%^ 'em, that's why.

Having said that, here are the results:

Player	2008 Salary	Salary/Game	Missed Games	Salary Missed
Moises Alou	$7,500,000.00	$46,296.30	139.00	$6,435,185.19
Marlon Anderson	$1,050,000.00	$6,481.48	42.00	$272,222.22
Luis Castillo	$6,250,000.00	$38,580.25	65.00	$2,507,716.05
Ramon Castro	$1,975,000.00	$12,191.36	32.00	$390,123.46
Ryan Church	$2,000,000.00	$12,345.68	56.00	$691,358.02
Orlando Hernandez	$7,000,000.00	$43,209.88	162.00	$7,000,000.00
John Maine	$450,000.00	$2,777.78	34.00	$94,444.44
Pedro Martinez	$11,813,351.00	$72,921.92	54.00	$3,937,783.67
Angel Pagan	$401,500.00	$2,478.40	125.00	$309,799.38
Duaner Sanchez	$850,000.00	$5,246.91	11.00	$57,716.05
Billy Wagner	$10,500,000.00	$64,814.81	49.00	$3,175,925.93
Matt Wise	$1,200,000.00	$7,407.41	147.00	$1,088,888.89
TOTAL	$50,989,851.00	$26,229.35	916.00	$25,961,163.30

Nine-hundred and sixteen missed games at an average cost-per-game of $26,229.35 for a grand total of $25,961,163.30 of lost wages due to injury. That's almost $26 million, which will pay for C.C. Sabathia's 2009 salary, among other things. For poops and pickles, if the Mets had that money back their 2008 payroll would have been more like $112 million, not $138 million. To be honest, I have no idea how much the Mets team attrition compares to other clubs, but 916 games is a ton of missed time.

Keep in mind that I only included players whom the Mets could have reasonably expected to be on their 25-man roster for the whole season. Here's the positional breakdown:

Starting pitching: 250 games, $11,032,228.11
Relief pitching: 207 games, $4,322,530.86
Infield: 65 games, $2,507,716.05
Outfield: 195 games, $6,435,185.19
Bench: 199 games, $972,145.06

Even with all of these injuries the Mets still had a great chance to make the playoffs this season. I'd be making excuses if I blamed their having fallen short on bad health, though it'd be equally naive to suggest that their physical breakdowns didn't play any role in their ultimate demise. To have four players from your would-be active roster miss at least 125 games apiece and not have your record suffer to some degree is unrealistic. Plenty of blame still falls on Omar Minaya for not having reasonable contingency plans for some of these guys, most notably Alou and Hernandez, who were safe bets to miss significant time in any given year. Still, a little more luck in the health department and we might not be grinding our teeth bitterly as we watch other teams take their hacks at baseball history.