SB Nation - Kazuo Matsui

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The hitters

DyingQuail — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:57:54 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

Not the guy you're expecting to see with a post about "most impressive batting performance."

This idea struck sometime in late August as I was watching, most likely, another Astros loss. I thought it would be a good idea so I randomly threw it onto Things for today.

The idea is pretty simple, what were the top three greatest performances that players put up during the season. Because I'm saber-slanted, I'm using WPA to quantify greatest. I've spent all morning clicking through every player's play log to find their highest WPA/play in order come up with the top three in hitting and pitching. Today is about the hitters, and the results will likely surprise you.

No. 1 - Kaz Matsui on September 5th

The man on the mound, a familiar Brad Lidge. The situation, down one in the bottom of the ninth, the bases juiced with two outs. What does Kaz do? He lines a 1B right field scoring JR Towles and Jason Michaels—the tying and the winning runs.

via www.fangraphs.com

Kazuo Matsui picks up a tidy .734 WPA on that one play. That's staggering. Of course, he's aided by the fact that the leverage situation was an insane 10.78, but he came through. That graph is ridiculous. Congrats, Kaz.

No. 2 - Miguel Tejada on September 9th

Compared to Kaz's ridiculous three-quarters of a win performance just four days earlier, Tejada's performance feels a little pedestrian. The real trajedy of this day, is that Lance Berkman gets squeaked out of the top three, even though were it not for him, Tejada doesn't make the list.

After Lance doubled to put runners at 2B and 3B, the Braves IBBed Carlos Lee to bring up Tejada, with one out (this reads like a terrible decision until you remember that it's Miguel "GIDP" Tejada at the plate). The result is that Tejada sends a ground ball to CF bringing in Kaz Matusi and Berkman to put the Astros on top 2-1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Tejada walks away with .471 WPA for his troubles and the number two performance.

No. 3 - Jeff Keppinger on August 27th

Top of the ninth. None on and two out. Astros tied 3-3 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Keppinger takes Kyle McClellan deep for a HR to put the Astros on top.

via www.fangraphs.com

Incidentally, Keppinger garners .421 WPA with the HR, but most importantly: Keppinger earns the highest isolated WPA performance of the season.

Keppinger's swing was just involved he and McClellan, where as Kaz and Miggy had the table set for them. I'm not saying that because they had their situations created by the play of players in front of them that they don't deserve credit for coming through with "clutch" hits, but with Keppinger, you don't have to wonder if more credit should be shifted to the table setters.

So, in your opinion....

Poll

What was the greatest batting performance by an Astro in 2009? (the choices are cryptic because you should read the post before you vote)

9/5

15 votes

9/9

3 votes

8/27

9 votes

Other - I'll explain in the comments

2 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

davoag — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:40:35 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Browse more photos »

This process took a little longer than I expected. In part two of my review of the roster, I looked at every infielders' (including catchers) statistics and make some notes about last season and their future. Not necessarily scientific, but there is some interesting information in here. Friday should see part three, a look at the outfield. Till then, let's see what happened with the first half of the roster...

Lance Berkman, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 562 PA, .274/.399/.509, 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 73 runs, 80 RBIs, 7 of 11 stolen bases, 98 strikeouts, 140 OPS+

WAR: 3.0

UZR: -4.5

VORP: 34.9

Notes: Two points to consider about Berkman's season. First, his April and August splits were horrible. His slow start and power vacuum in August led to the perception that his season was a disappointment. Still, though he managed just 12 hits in April, he also walked 17 times and hit five home runs. In August, he hit zero home runs but had an OBP over .400. This also leads into the second point: Berkman is aging, but his power drop over the past three seasons is in part due to an overall power outage in the National League. The Big Puma saw his home run total fall 26 percent over the past three seasons while his extra-base hits have fallen 5 percent. That's almost exactly the same percentage that the NL extra-base hit total dropped over the same time period (5.6%). The NL home run total dropped 8.2 percent, but I'm guessing Berkman's drop in homers is beginning to be due to age. Still, if he hits 30 home runs in the next year or two with 50+ XBH, I'm guessing the Astros will be happy.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 533 PA, .250/.302/.357, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, 56 runs, 46 RBIs, 19 of 22 stolen bases, 85 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

UZR: -1.0

VORP: 0.4

Notes: I'll be up front: I don't care for Matsui. He's overpaid, he's injured too often and he doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order. That's just my personal preference, but I wanted to get that out in the open in the interests of being objective. Matsui's line is down quite a bit from 2008 but combine the past two seasons and its almost exactly in line with his career line of .271/.325/.387. His Runs Created totals of 64 in 2007, 61 in 2008 and 56 in 2009 have been very consistent, but his BABiP was 40 points lower in 2009 at .285 than the previous season. Add to that a good stolen base rate of 85% over his career and Matsui does have his uses. The problem is, he's a No. 7 hitter, not a leadoff guy. Matsui's numbers should bounce back some in 2010, but don't bet on another .350 OBP.

Miguel Tejada, SS

2009 Season Stats: 673 PA, .313/.340/.455, 46 doubles, 1 triple, 14 HR, 83 runs, 86 RBIs, 5 of 7 stolen bases, 48 strikeouts, 110 OPS+

WAR: 2.6

UZR: -8.3

VORP: 43.7

Notes: Tejada had the highest VORP of any player on the Astros roster last season, for good reason. Though his OBP wasn't terribly high, he did hit a ton of doubles and actually had more extra-base hits than Berkman. In fact, Tejada led the National League in doubles in 2009. Tejada also struck out just 48 times, which was his lowest total since his 104 plate appearances in 1997. Of course, the flip side of that is it was also his lowest walk total since 1997, too. Tejada's high batting average was due in part because he had his highest BABiP since 2006, 20 points higher than his career BABiP of .298. Tejada once again led the National League in grounding into double plays and put up his highest season totals since 2006 in plate appearances, RBIs, hits and sacrifice flies. I'm not sure if this was the most successful contract push for a 35-year old in the post-steroids era, but it's got to be up there on the list, right?

Geoff Blum, 3B/Util

2009 Season Stats: 427 PA, .247/.314/.367, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 34 runs, 49 RBIs, 0 for 1 stolen bases, 61 strikeouts, 81 OPS+

WAR: 0.6

UZR: 0.3

VORP: -0.5

Notes: Blum was the only regular Astros infielder (besides the catchers) who posted a negative VORP. His crazy hair styles and home runs off the bench were fun and zany in 2004 when the Astros were making their run to the postseason. Now? Blum's a steady defender but doesn't have great range and is aging quickly. His OPS+ of 81 is not good for any position, much less a corner infield spot. Surprisingly, Blum's numbers last season were right in line with his career line of .250/.310/.367, but moving into his age 37 season, he's probably not going to equal those numbers in 2010. Blum started 94 games at third and seven at first, but is probably better suited as being the Astros number one pinch hitter next year.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .251/.280/.382, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HR, 41 runs, 34 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 74 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR:0.7

VORP: -1.1

Notes: Ahh, Pudge. Has there been a more controversial free agent signing by the Astros in recent memory? Can someone split a room between stat guys and traditional scouting guys more than Pudge? The 37-year old couldn't walk if he were given two balls at the beginning of every at-bat. He would sometimes throw out baserunners, but was never talked about as a good handler of the pitching staff. Where do we go from there? Pudge started out strong for the Astros but faded late, and did the same thing after being traded to the Rangers. Starting him and Matsui together proved dangerous for the Astros offense, as they both posted sub-80 OPS+. When 1/4 of the starting lineup can't get on base or hit for power, something's not right.

Humberto Quintero, C

2009 Season Stats: 168 PA, .236/.286/.376, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 11 runs, 14 RBIs, 0 of 0 stolen bases, 41 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

VORP: -0.4

Notes: Q suffered through a bad concussion this season, but still managed to get into 60 games this season. He started some after Pudge was traded away, but didn't impress offensively. In fact, he's never hit much in the majors, with a career line of .232/.275/.325. Quintero has a strong arm and handles the pitching staff well, but will be 30 next season in his last non-arbitration year. He makes sense as a backup to someone like Towles or Jason Castro, but putting him in the starting lineup is a stretch.

J.R. Towles, C

2009 Season Stats (Houston): 53 PA, .188/.250/.354, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR, 7 runs, 3 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 16 strikeouts, 59 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

VORP: -1.7

Notes: What to do with Towles? The 25-year old couldn't stay healthy at Round Rock this season, getting only 56 games with the Express. When he did play, Towles hit the ball well and got on base at a good clip, sporting an OPS of .842 in Triple-A. That didn't translate to the pros in either of his two stints with the team, but it should. All Towles needs is a little time and opportunity.

Jeff Keppinger, Util

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .256/.320/.387, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HR, 35 runs, 29 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 33 strikeouts, 88 OPS+

WAR: 0.4

UZR: 5.7

VORP: 2.8

Notes: Keppinger was a late-spring addition, something former GM Gerry Hunsicker made into somewhat of an art form. Unfortunately, Keppinger didn't work out quite as well as guys like Mike Lamb and Billy Spiers did. That's not to say Keppinger was bad, as his batting was okay for a shortstop. Again, unfortunately, Keppinger played 59 games at third base. His range and glove made him an asset defensively there, but his bat is not good enough to hold up there for long periods of time. Still, Keppinger is a useful player who makes more sense on the bench than most of the Astros' reserves.

Darin Erstad, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 150 PA, .194/.268/.328, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 13 runs, 11 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 31 strikeouts, 58 OPS+

WAR: -0.9

UZR: 7.9

VORP: -8.2

Notes: Erstad was a surpringly resurgent part of the 2008 team. Of course, in that campaign, Erstad played 40 games in center field. This season? Just one appearance in center field. Erstad could be a useful player, but he doesn't have the bat to be a first baseman, even as a backup, and doesn't have the arm to play in right field. That leaves him as the caddy for Carlos Lee. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the next manager should not view Erstad as the first bat off the bench to pinch hit.

Edwin Maysonet, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 79 PA, .290/.333/.362, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 9 runs, 7 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 19 strikeouts, 86 OPS+

WAR: 0.3

UZR: 8.3

VORP: 1.1

Notes: Maysonet wasn't one of the best prospects in the Astros system, but made the best debut of any Astros rookie position player in 2009. His average was high, but his OBP was not impressive. Add to that his complete lack of power and it's not like we have the next Chase Utley here. Still, Maysonet probably deserved more playing time than he got. He'd been known in the minors as a great defensive player and flashed good range in his time with the big league club. The only downside is his minor league track batting record was not very good. Maysonet had a decent season in 2008 at Corpus Christi, but was pretty terrible at Round Rock last season. That could be him reacting to shuttling back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. That could be because he's not ready to hit high-level pitching. Only time will tell.

Tommy Manzella, SS

2009 Season Stats: 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts, 7 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

UZR: -11.6

VORP: -0.5

Notes: The Great Shortstop Hope will be 27 next season and hasn't made a dent in the big leagues yet. There were a couple stories in September about how Manzella was learning from Tejada and soaking it all in, but he still needs to play. Manzella was a very consistent hitter for Round Rock in 2009, batting .289/.339/.417 in 133 games. The one good thing? Manzella is a horse, playing 521 games over the past five seasons in the minors. His defense is good, but it's hard to quantify how good it will be in the majors. In all likelihood, Manzella will be given every chance to be the everyday shortstop next season.

Chris Johnson, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 23 PA, .091/.130/.091, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 6 strikeouts, -39 OPS+

WAR:-0.4

UZR: -34.9

VORP: -4.2

Notes: Johnson is one of the few Astros prospects I'm not that high on. He gets a lot of credit for being a power hitter, but only hit 13 home runs last season and averaged 10 homers per year in his minor league career. His defense at third is just passable, but probably could be as good as Blum, given time. The question is: is this Astros team ready to take a chance on a young player going through growing pains at the big league level? It's going to take an adjustment for Johnson to be a productive big league hitter, and I'm not sure the Astros can be patient enough for that to happen.

Chris Coste, Util

2009 Season Stats: 112 PA, .204/.259/.252, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 3 runs, 10 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 28 strikeouts, 37 OPS+

WAR: -0.5

UZR: -10.9

VORP: -8.1

Notes: After being picked up off waivers on July 10, Coste started a bunch of games when Lance Berkman was injured and then Ivan Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers. The problem is Coste just wasn't that good, either offensively or defensively. Coste didn't hit for much power in his brief stint with the team, but did manage to strike out a ton. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. Seriously, though, by whichever metric you look at, Coste is the prototypical replacement-level player. He's only on the roster because there aren't better options. Hopefully that will change in the off-season.

Matt Kata, Util

2009 Season Stats: 52 PA, .200/.212/.220, 1 double, 0 triple, 0 HR, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 5 strikeouts, 16 OPS+

WAR: -0.1

UZR: 8.7

VORP: -4.8

Notes: Kata was more useful for his versatility off the bench than his play. As I mentioned at the top, I don't account much for UZR as the ONLY defensive metric to analyze things, especially when we have to extrapolate it out based on small sample sizes. Still, it appears Kata was at least a decent defensive asset on the bench this season. He's now a free agent.

Jason Smith, Util

2009 Season Stats: 27 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 9 strikeouts, -100 OPS+

WAR: -0.6

UZR: 21.6

VORP: -7.4

Notes: Smith didn't get much of a chance to show anything at the big league level. What he did show wasn't good. Smith did better with Round Rock, but is probably best suited as a utility guy on the end of a bench. Smith is a free agent and probably won't be back with Round Rock.

Aaron Boone, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 14 PA, .000/.071/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 2 strikeouts, -79 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: 15.9

VORP: -3.4

Notes: Not much to say here, other than for a guy to go through what Boone did in spring training and still get 14 plate appearances in the same season...well, that's just impressive.

Monday Rockpile: Rockies seek the correct postseason roster

Russ Oates — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 13:51:57 -0000

Rockies fall to Dodgers in finale, turn attention to familiar playoff foe - The Denver Post
Yesterday was a loss, but Wednesday is the start of a whole new season.

Inside the Colorado Rockies " Rocks Starters Set for Games 1, 2 | Major League Baseball in Denver
Ubaldo Jimenez in game one; Aaron Cook in game two; and after that? Also, some notes on who is heading to the instructional league during the playoffs.

Paige: Rockies' first postseason score to remember: 11 to 3 - The Denver Post
Woody Paige identifies the 11 players the Rockies need to record three victories over the Phillies.

In the Playoffs, Colorado Rockies : baseballmusings.com
David Pinto at Baseball Musings previews the Rockies for the playoffs.

It's wait and see for De La Rosa - The Denver Post
Tick-tock, tick-tock.

Slumping Morales "ready" for Phillies - The Denver Post
If we do watch Franklin Morales pitch, it better not be like his outing in game 2 of the 2007 NLDS . . . you know, because we don't have Kazuo Matsui to hit a grand slam.

Rockies' Marquis starts slowly, then pitches well enough to get postseason consideration - The Denver Post
Jasin Marquis, WINNAR.

It's official: Rockies set a franchise record for whiffs - The Denver Post
The Rockies struck out a record number of times this season, breaking the previous record by 69.

Jimenez returns to playoffs even better | ColoradoRockies.com: News
This being his second trip to the playoffs, Ubaldo Jimenez looks for big things. But not to have the lights go out at any stadium this time.

Pressure? Street doesn't believe it exists | ColoradoRockies.com: News
"Huston Street believes that pressure is all in the mind. Though the Rockies' closer expects things to get hot when he faces the Phillies in the NLDS, the postseason veteran is ready to rock."

Rox-Phils pits past two pennant-winners | ColoradoRockies.com: News
A preview of the last two NL champions.

BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Ask BA
In his latest entry, Jim Callis predicts the Rockies to play in the NLCS against the Cardinals. St. Louis wins and goes on to lose to the Yankees.

Callis provides the 2010 draft order. The Rockies have the 26th pick. And in another question, the mechanics of the draft prior to 2005 are explained. See, before that year the AL and the NL alternated the first pick of the draft. In 2006 the Rockies would have had the first selection, and Greg Reynolds would be up there with Matt Bush for a dubious distinction.

WAR Lords of the Diamond: Greatest. Rockies. Ever.

Jabberwocky — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:30:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Todd Helton features prominently in any conversation about the greatest Rockies ever.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP I SP

Now that I've discussed the greatest Rockies ever by position according to WAR, I'll summarize my data and reveal my All-Time Rockies squad. In all, 224 Rockies have been weighed, measured, and (mostly) been found wanting in this quest, yet some have clearly risen above the rest.

Of course, due to the fact that the Rockies' history is only 17 years old, there isn't exactly a deep pool of players to choose from in this study. Therefore, I will be ranking all players who produced a career WAR of over 3 wins at a position for the Rockies or was a significant player for the team.

Here was my methodology:

1. I only used stats accumulated when they played for the Rockies.

2. The categories used were: career with Rockies, best three consecutive years with Rockies (establishes average production), and best single year with the Rockies (establishes peak production).

3. If the players spent less than three years with the Rockies, their career total was used in the other metrics as well. If the player was at different positions for different years, the player would be considered for the position in which he had the most starts (or greatest impact, at my discretion) for the Rockies.

4. The players were ranked in each category. Those ranks were added and averaged out--the lowest average rank was the most valuable Rockie.

5. The data used was only for seasons that were completed (e.g. not 2009).

Remember, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fantastic Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of WAR's calculation for position players and pitchers. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

After the jump I'll outline the greatest (and worst) Rockies squad as found using my methodology, as well as the best single year performances.

The All-Time Greats

Remember, this ranking takes into account best career WAR, best consecutive 3-year WAR period, and best single WAR year to accurately capture a player's greatness and to mitigate somewhat the fact that WAR is a counting stat and is heavily influenced by longevity. Slash stats are (Career WAR / 3 Year WAR / 1 Year WAR).

Starting Lineup

C: Jeff Reed (1996-1999) (4.3 / 4.6 / 1.8)
1B: Todd Helton (1997-2008) (53.9 / 21.7 / 8.8)
2B: Eric Young (1993-1997) (9.5 / 7.3 / 3.8)
3B: Garrett Atkins (2003-2008) (11.1 / 10.8 / 6.4)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2006-2008) (6.2 / 6.2 / 5.6)
LF: Matt Holliday (2004-2008) (16.9 / 15.9 / 7.3)
CF: Juan Pierre (2000-2002) (3.0 / 3.0 / 2.4)
RF: Larry Walker (1995-2004) (44.1 / 18.3 / 9.0)

Bench

Vinny Castilla (1993-1999, 2004, 2006) (15.1 / 10.1 / 4.5)
Ellis Burks (1994-1998) (10.8 / 10 / 7.6)
Andres Galarraga (1993-1997) (11.3 / 6.3 / 3.6)
Jamey Carroll (2006-2007) (5.1 / 5.1 / 4.3)
Chris Iannetta (2006-2008) (3.2 / 3.2 / 2.7)

Batting Order

1. Eric Young
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Matt Holliday
6. Garrett Atkins
7. Juan Pierre
8. Jeff Reed

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1997-2001) (9.9 / 9.3 / 5.3)
SP2: Aaron Cook (2002-2008) (10.3 / 7.3 / 3.4)
SP3: Jason Jennings (2001-2006) (9.1 / 6.6 / 4.2)
SP4: Kevin Ritz (1994-1998) (6.6 / 6.5 / 3.9)
SP5: Armando Reynoso (1993-1996) (7.6 / 5.0 / 3.1)

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Steve Reed (1993-1997, 2003-2004) (9.2 / 5.6 / 3.1)
Brian Fuentes (2002-2008) (8.8 / 5.2 / 2.7)
Curtis Leskanic (1993-1999) (5.2 / 3.2 / 3.1)
Bruce Ruffin (1993-1997) (5.7 / 4.6 / 1.9)
Jerry Dipoto (1997-2000) (4.7 / 4.4 / 2.1)
Jose Jimenez (2000-2003) (4.2 / 4.2 / 2.3)
Darren Holmes (1993-1997) ( (3.8 / 3.6 / 2.3)

Analysis

The construction of this team historically tells us that in the last few years the Rockies have played several of the best position players in team history (three of them are on this squad). After 2009 is completed Chris Iannetta will supplant Jeff Reed at starting catcher while several other players shoot up the leader boards.

From a pitching standpoint, the bullpen is heavily comprised of guys that were in the 1997 bullpen (five of them!). After this year not much will change as far as relievers go, but Ubaldo Jimenez's stellar 2009 will place him in the rotation as the second-ranked starting pitcher. It should be noted that Ellis Burks would probably supplant Juan Pierre in center field.

The team that is best by my metrics is by and large the best team by Career and 3 Year WAR totals too, but there are definitely some interesting outlier seasons by others that shake up the best single year roster.

The Greatest Single Season Performances

Collected below is an unholy amalgamation of the best individual seasons by position in Rockies history. If these players had all produced at this level in the same year, they would have produced 67.2 batting WAR (20.4 off the bench), 19.2 relief WAR, and 22.1 starting pitching WAR for a total of 88.1 WAR. This team should statistically win 136.7 games out of 162 (a replacement level team would win 48.6, or 30% of its games).

Starting Lineup

C: Chris Iannetta (2008) 2.7
1B: Todd Helton (2000) 8.8
2B: Jamey Carroll (2006) 4.3
3B: Garrett Atkins (2006) 6.4
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2007) 5.6
LF: Ellis Burks (1996) 7.6
CF: Juan Pierre (2001) 2.4
RF: Larry Walker (1997) 9.0

Bench

Matt Holliday (2007) 7.3
Vinny Castilla (1998) 4.5
Kazuo Matsui (2007) 4.1
Eric Young (1996) 2.7
Jeff Reed (1998) 1.8

Batting Order

1. Jamey Carroll
2. Ellis Burks
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Garrett Atkins
6. Troy Tulowitzki
7. Chris Iannetta
8. Juan Pierre

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1999) 5.3
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2004) 4.7
SP3: Jason Jennings (2006) 4.2
SP4: Marvin Freeman (1994) 4.0
SP5: Kevin Ritz (1995) 3.9

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Gabe White (2000) 3.3
Steve Reed (1997) 3.1
Curtis Leskanic (1995) 3.1
Brian Fuentes (2005) 2.7
Manuel Corpas (2007) 2.4
Jose Jimenez (2000) 2.3
Darren Holmes (1995) 2.3

Analysis

Obviously I'd play Holliday in left field and shift Burks to center, improving the lineup (and overall WAR) immensely, but those were the best players by WAR at their position in one season. From this year's team, Carlos Gonzalez is close to surpassing Juan Pierre, while Ubaldo Jimenez will jump atop the starting rotation, where he will perhaps be joined by Jason Marquis (depending on how his last start turns out). I'll talk more about this next week.

Rockies fans have been privileged enough to witness in the last couple of years some of the greatest seasons ever--Smith's WAR calculations are park-adjusted, so when Coors Field changed due to the humidor's implementation so did the formula for calculating WAR. As a result, early pitchers get a large boost (and hitters a large detraction) relative to today's players because of the pitcher's hell that was early Coors Field/Mile High.

And finally...

Single Season Goats

This would be the worst single-season lineup the Rockies could put on the field (worst players starting). The sad thing is that many of them did play a large role for the Rockies. The damage: -15.9 hitting WAR (-11.2 from the starting lineup), -7.5 relief WAR, and -8.5 SP WAR for a total of -31.9 wins above replacement. This team should statistically win 16.7 games out of 162.

Starting Lineup

C: Kirt Manwaring (1997) -2.1
1B: John Vander Wal (1997) -0.7
2B: Luis A. Gonzalez (2006) -1.0
3B: Vinny Castilla (1993) -0.5 [soon to be supplanted by Garrett Atkins, 2009 (-0.9)]
SS: Neifi Perez (1998) -1.2 (and yes, he played all 162 games)
LF: Dante Bichette (1999) -2.8
CF: Choo Freeman (2004) -1.2
RF: Brad Hawpe (2008) -1.7

Bench

Cory Sullivan (2006) -1.1
Steve Finley (2007) -1.1
Jason Bates (1996) -0.9
Jeff Baker (2007) -0.7
Gary Bennett (2002) -0.9

Batting Order

1. Neifi Perez
2. Choo Freeman
3. Vinny Castilla
4. Dante Bichette
5. Brad Hawpe
6. John Vander Wal
7. Kirt Manwaring
8. Luis A. Gonzalez

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Dennis Stark (2004) -1.9
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2005) -1.9
SP3: Brian Rekar (1996) -1.6
SP4: Andy Ashby (1993) -1.6
SP5: Mike Hampton (2002) -1.5

Bullpen (in order of suckitude):

Shawn Chacon (2004) -1.7
Todd Jones (2003) -1.4
Mike Dejean (1999) -1
Darren Holmes (1994) -0.9
Jose Acevedo (2005) -0.9
Jeremy Affeldt (2006) -0.8
Javier Lopez (2004) -0.8

Analysis

This team is horrible, but some of the names on the list were just having a statistical anomaly of a bad season or were getting their first look at major league hitting/pitching. In fact, several went on to have nice careers. Several of them did not, and for good reason.

Next week, I'll look at how the 2009 Rockies performed individually and as a team from a value standpoint.

Sunday Rockpile: Power up top from Carlos Gonzalez and others pushing Rockies in 2009

Rox Girl — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 14:59:13 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

3 months ago: Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez (5) rounds third as Arizona Diamondbacks' Mark Reynolds (27) looks away after Gonzalez hit a solo home run during the first inning of a baseball game Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)

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Carlos Gonzalez's lead-off home run last night was his second this month against the Diamondbacks, duplicating the accomplishment he had off of Doug Davis on September 5th. While lead-off first inning HR's are a great way to get a game off on the right foot, having power from the lead-off position at all, regardless when in the game it comes, is a luxury the Rockies haven't had for several seasons until 2009. And by several seasons, I mean at least as far back as 1993, as that's where my records for the Rockies are cut off due to a flood or something.., oh wait...

Yep, the 17 jacks by Rockies leadoff hitters this season is a franchise record, the old record was shared by the 1998 and 1999 teams when Neifi Perez was the primary lead-off hitter. Gonzalez has a chance to break Perez's single season team record of 8 HR's by a #1 hitter, especially considering all six of CarGo's homers in that slot this year have come since August 18. Why it's taken the Rockies this long to realize that you can have hitters who steal bases and get on base a lot and hit HR's from the #1 slot in the batting order is probably a question best left unpondered by Rockies fans or it might lead you to drink, but better late than never, I guess.

Just for a kick, here's a stroll back through the Rockies players to hit HR's while batting leadoff through this decade. And indeed, we really did have a manager that thought it a good idea to give Eddy Garabito more PA's than anybody else one game:

2009: 17

Carlos Gonzalez 6
Dexter Fowler 4
Ryan Spilborghs 3
Seth Smith 3
Eric Young Jr. 1

2008: 9

Clint Barmes 5
Spilborghs 2
Smith 1
Willy Taveras 1

2007: 5

Taveras 2
Spilborghs 2
Cory Sullivan 1

2006: 7

Jamey Carroll 4
Kazuo Matsui 2
Sullivan 1

2005: 9

Barmes 5
Aaron Miles 1
Luis A. Gonzalez 1
Eddy Garabito 1
Sullivan 1

2004: 11

Miles 6
L.A. Gonzalez 4
Jorge Piedra 1

2003: 11

Ronnie Belliard 7
Juan Uribe 4

2002: 1

Juan Pierre 1

2001: 4

Pierre 2
Mark Little 1
Todd Walker 1

Links after the jump:

The Denver Post

Wednesday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:53:51 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

1,143 consecutive games?! Really?!

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Meanwhile, in the history of mis-manging assets:

"The last curveball in the fifth it kind of got me a little bit," Oswalt said of his back. "I was trying to get through the heart of the lineup in the sixth, but I didn't have enough to get through it. We're going to see how it feels tomorrow and then decide what we're going to do. It seems like we're kind of beating the bush right now."

Meanwhile, in the history of quotes that make you chuckle inwardly:

"After the game, I went to lift weights," Berkman said.

Then, in the history of quotes that make you chuckle out loud:

[At Morton's steak House] an Astros veteran asked one of the Bengals players to bring their bill over to rookie Bud Norris, who didn't know it was a joke and ended up paying the whole thing.

Enough with the bad introductions to quotes. Here's a fitting bit of poetry from the Unofficial Scorer:

There once was a guy named Manzella Who was really a very nice fella But day after day He got no chance to play And, come on, you're out of the playoff race, Miguel Tejada has a .655 OPS since the All-Star Break, he isn't getting any younger, you know exactly what he can and can't do, and I thought nobody was coming up unless he was going to contribute-ella. [apologies for the terrible formatting]

BtB shows graphically, then expounds in words, on just how much the Astros have not gotten out of the guys their paying the big bucks to.
Richard Justice continues to rub in the fact that he's pretty sure Miguel Tejada won't be donning an Astros uniform in 2010. I'll file this in the folder of things about this team that make me want to slam my head against a wall until I'm too disoriented to think critically about it.
Finally, I'll file this under things that make me scratch my head and think: What the hell happened:
- HLP Insert: Justin Bopp from Beyond the Boxscore was kind enough to send this story detailing the Astros' payroll vs. performance graph from their blog.

"I want to play as much as I can," said Matsui, who played in 1,143 consecutive games in Japan, the fifth-longest such streak in the country's history. "I'm not satisfied with 115." [emphasis added]

HLP Insert: Justin Bopp, of Beyond the Boxscore, was kind enough to pass along this graph/analysis which focuses on the Astros' payroll vs. their on field value. Unsurprisingly, it isn't pretty, and their outlook for the team isn't too optimistic. How does an 8 year rebuilding period sound??

Can the 2010 Astros be competitive?

DyingQuail — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

My opinion: 2010 hinges on this man's performance.

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I'll admit from the outset that this depressing for me to write for two reasons. One, of course, being that it's depressing that I can't find anything worth writing about the 2009 Astros and two being that I am left wondering how the 2010 Astros can do better than their 2009 version. This ominous thought has been lurking in the back of my mind since I did an interview with Fred Fauor a few weeks ago in which the topic of how the 2010 Astros should assemble themselves left me clawing for any semblance of hope (which is a sports fan's best friend in times like these).

The logical place to start this conversation is payroll. A team can't build something if it can't afford to buy the requisite building materials. Everytime I have tried to account for the dollars and cents of the core of the Astros roster for next year I've totaled $75 to $82 million. This roster includes (with best guess efforts for arbitration bonuses and salary escalation):

Lance Berkman
Carlos Lee
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Hunter Pence
Michael Bourn
Jeff Keppinger
Kazuo Matsui
Tommy Manzella
Miguel Tejada (anywhere from $6 million to $11 million. The latter would actually be his fair market value at 3B if he replicated 90% of his offensive production from this year, assuming a cost of $4.5 million per WAR)
LaTroy Hawkins (anywhere from $4.5 million to $7 million to be our closer)
Bud Norris
Felipe Paulino
Brian Moehler
Yorman Bazardo
Sammy Gervacio
Alberto Arias
Chris Sampson
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak or some a near equivalent LOOGY
Humerto Quintero
Jason Castro
JR Towles or Brian Bogusevic
Rounding out the roster with relief pitchers that will have an average price tag of $1.25 million

This would be a young Astros team compared to their previous few versions, so there is of course the ability to infer hope from it because the projections for many of these players has a wide range of variance. But is that the kind of hope that we as Astros fans—especially most of the regulars here, who all have a far more sharply objective view of baseball—want claim? Can we even claim that as hope? I guess the answers to that are personal and subject to one's own preferences.

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) for you, the readers, I get to work out my thought process in front of you. For those who just want to move past this discussion, I'll do this after the jump.

If we have learned anything from the 2009 version of the Astros it is this: A seemingly stacked offense is not a good way to build a baseball team. The fact of the matter is, and will continue to be, that the core of our line up has skill set that is high slugging percentage relative to on-base percentage. This, as we now are so painfully aware of, does not an offense make. There's just no consistency in such a skill set and that fact was exacerbated by poor managerial strategy by the man at the helm of the offense, Cecil Cooper.

Even if the Astros front office decides to spare us the indignity of having Cecil Cooper continue to pull all the levers of the 2010 Astros, offense will not be our strong suit. This leaves us to the lesson we all learned in 2005: If you've got pitchers who pitch well, the team will perform well. As of right now, the only starting pitcher I put on the list above who I have confidence in is Wandy Rodriguez. I hope that Roy Oswalt will pitch well on a consistent basis in 2010, but his continued climb into his thirties, combined with his worrisome back issues, don't fill me with the confidence that the Wizard once inspired.

Dratyon McLane has already announced that payroll in 2010 will be lower than payroll in 2009, and has cited attendance this year as the motivation for this reduction. If payroll is scaled down to match in the loss in attendance revenues this year, than would place the Astros at somewhere within a million or two dollars of $90 million. That doesn't leave a lot of dough to fill out the bench and bullpen, while also buying the services of another top-tier pitcher to complement Roy and Wandy.

That leaves the likely candidates as Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Brian Moehler. However, it's hard to say that all aren't question marks in my mind. I doubt that our starting rotation will include more than two of the above to start the season, as I am sure there will be some manner of reclamation project scooped up by Ed Wade this winter. I also doubt that this unnamed pitcher will be more than a giant question mark in my mind as well. How can I be so confident that whatever Ed Wade pulls off the scrap heap will be a question mark? Just take a look at the options.

Bud Norris has flashed brilliance this season, but Wandy Rodriguez had a long and torturous journey to consistently being brilliant, so it's hard for me to place too much hope in Bud. Were Bud Norris to speed up his learning curve and provide legitimate number three services, then the Astros would have a strong rotation. Not 2005 strong, but strong enough to inspire confidence, and dare I say it, hope. Were Bazardo, Moehler, Wright (who'll be auditioned as a starter this spring, allegedly), and whoever is Ed Wade's reclamation project, to be relegated to the four and five slots, then they're imperfections and questions marks wouldn't matter as much. 2009 has been dismal mainly because 3/5 of the time there's no reason to expect good things from the guy taking the mound. At times, when injury has felled Wandy and Roy, there's almost no reason to hope for anything other than an offensive explosion to mask the deficiency in pitching.

So I've talked myself to this point: Should Bud Norris be an effective starting pitcher next year, I think that the 2010 Astros can be competitive. Do I have hope? There's a glimmer of it. Am I being unduly pessimistic? I'll leave that for you to decide. Have I missed/glossed over something? Probably. Again, tell me where I went wrong.

Dominance thy name is Bud Norris: Pirates 1 - Astros 9

DyingQuail — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 03:36:41 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

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I didn't see a single second of this game, so my analysis will be skin deep and emphasize what I can glean from the box score.

Things that are good (there will be no corresponding things that were bad):

Bud Norris' final line: 6IP, 6H, 1R (1ER), 7K, 1BB, 84 pitches (54 strikes).
Bud Norris' peripherals: 7 K:BB, 10.5 K/9, 8.33 K/100. That's efficiency—which in pitching gets renamed dominance.
Yorman Bazardo getting tested in the bullpen (something I've been hoping for) and producing a 3K inning. I'll take infinite K:BB ratios and 27 K/9 all day everyday from in the pen.
Lance Berkman starting a HR streak and sprinkling in a 2B for good measure.
Kazuo Matsui going 3/4 with a 2B as well.
Tommy Manzella collecting his first big league hit—a good omen, perhaps?

Whatever I've left off good, bad, or indifferent let me know.

Here's the only game recapage you actually need:

via www.fangraphs.com

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Why are the Astros wasting September?

DyingQuail — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 12:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I'll already said I'd be willing to try this? What are you guys waiting for?

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September opened yesterday with the absolutely thrilling announcement that Doug Brocail would be joining the truly heart warming story of Aaron Boone. I don't want to take anything away from the truly miraculous return of Aaron Boone, but when the headline for roster-expansion is a guy coming back from open heart surgery, one has to wonder what the front office is thinking. With about 30 games left in 2009 the Astros have less than 1% odds of making the playoffs. Less than 1%. There's nothing to be gained from these games except previewing potential lineup cards for 2010.

I am aware that these kinds of roster expansion typically take place once the minor league season is in the books, but there's a catch for the 2009 Astros organization: Both Round Rock and Corpus Christi aren't playing for anything. There's literally nothing holding the Astros back from experimenting for an extra week to make more informed decisions in the offseason. The best part is, pretty much everything the Astros need to see is already on the 40-man roster.

How does Miguel Tejada fair at 3B? Does Geoff Blum really need regular playing time? Does it matter if he makes a bunch of ridiculous errors? The answer to both of these is no.
What does Tommy Manzella hit like at the big league level? Better yet, how does he look at SS? With Miggy over at 3B, it makes perfect sense to bring up his ostensible in house replacement, who is on the 40-man roster, and see how he fares. Sure his bat is important, but I'm really curious to see how his glove plays.
How do Brian Bogusevic and Yordany Ramirez look? Our current outfield trio aren't going anywhere, but with a relative (and I mean relative) surplus of seemingly capable outfielders why not see if we can get them a strong cup of coffee and sell high on one of them? Think Josh Anderson in 2007, only hope for more than Oscar Villareal.
What has another year of AAA done for JR Towles? Can we count him in for 2010? Or can we potentially shop him this offseason? A replication of 2007's cup of coffee could do wonders for his stock.
Who would be a better regular: Jeff Keppinger or Edwin Maysonet? My guess is Keppinger, but why not give them both a consistent run of starts. It's not like Kaz Matsui needs to play extra games, he's already fragile enough.
Could Yorman Bazardo be more useful as a Chris Sampson-type in the bullpen? It would save him some innings, and allow us to see get a better idea of his relative utility to us.
Finally, it'd be cool to see how this worked out for scrap heap types? I guess we're really out of scrap heap types, but maybe we could figure it out.

With Richard Justice already predicting someone's firing tomorrow today, what does this organization have to lose? Let's be bold.

Astros win the most uncomfortable 6-3 game—ever

DyingQuail — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 03:35:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

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After being way prematurely yanked to satisfy whatever rumbling was occurring in Cecil Cooper's gut, Yorman Bazardo was removed and lost a shot at being the pitcher of record. I was looking for Bazardo's start to make me feel good about our prospects in 2010 and Yorman did little to let me sleep well tonight: 4.2IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 1K, 4BB using 95 pitches (maybe 98, there's some controversy). That's a 1.93K/9, 0.25K:BB, and a paltry 1.05K/100. Not exactly what I was hoping for.

To say that Bazardo lacked control would be an understatement. At times he flashed crisp fastballs and an excellent slider/change-up combo and others he had an inability to keep his fastball down and his breaking stuff in the zone. The one positive I can laud Bazardo with is that he managed to work his way out of jams and limit the damage. In fact, he should have been able to complete the full 5IP were it not for Kaz Matsui bobbling the ball on the exchange of botched GIDP. Coop went with Tim Byrdak who managed to continue not being effective against lefties without Coop catching on. Instead of allowing Byrdak to pitch to RHBs, who he's actually more effective against, Coop went to Samuel Gervacio who needed five pitches to collect the third out...something that would earn him the pitcher of record nod (reason #583958277134 that wins are meaningless).

Jeff Fulchino, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jose Valverde all combined to finish off the Marlins, who still collected over ten hits for the fifteenth consecutive game. Valverde, however, continued his streak of having a total inability to just go get three outs without giving an entire city a collective heart attack. With two outs, Valverde decided to walk two batters, then hit Wes Helms. After an eleven pitch battle with Chris Coghlan, Valverde recorded the K and the final out. He has got to stop doing that.

Here are the positives from the offense:

Michael Bourn did it all: bunt hit, stolen bases, advances on errors, ridiculous plays in centerfield, and he clocked a 3B. Ridiculous night.
Lance Berkman had a multi-hit night.
Humberto Quintero crushed a homerun off the Conaco porch in left center.
Carlos Lee, after looking his weight in the first inning, made two "amazing" defensive plays in the 8th and 9th innings.
Hunter Pence collected a hit and a walk, but also two SB. Between Pence and Bourn, the Astros were 4/4 on the base paths—it's a miracle.
Miguel Teajda broke out of his 0/19 streak with a 2B. He then GIDPed in his next AB.
Jason Michaels contributed a PH 2B.

via www.fangraphs.com

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