SB Nation - Matt Holliday

Down on the Farm: MLB Fantasy Prospects Breaks Down the Roy Halladay Deal

raygu — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

4 days ago: FILE - In this Feb. 28, 2007, file photo, Philadelphia Phillies' Kyle Drabek ptiches against Florida State during a spring training baseball game in Clearwater, Fla. Drabek was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009, part of a four-team trade that sent Roy Halliday to the Phillies and Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)

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contributed by Stephen Sheridan at MLB Fantasy Prospects

All of the dust has settled on what ESPN's Jayson Stark explains, "...isn't just a trade. It's a foray into the history books." MLBFP closely studied this monster trade to figure out how the pieces fit together. Of course, we concentrated on the prospects, only. If you don't already know that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are top ten starters in any format, maybe you might need a new hobby.

We begin by taking a look at the Blue Jays' haul for Roy Halladay, which includes Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace (obtained by flipping Michael Taylor to the A's. Stay tuned for our interview with him, later this weekend), and Travis D'Arnaud.

Loyal MLBFP readers already know that Drabek holds a spot on our list of Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2010 & Beyond, coming in at #17. Once you've read our scouting report on Kyle, you'll see that we that this kid might someday follow in his daddy's footsteps and win a Cy Young Award. On December 17, John Manual and J.J. Cooper discussed the big trade on the Baseball America Podcast. They now list Kyle Drabek as Toronto's number one prospect. Who's number two? Brett Wallace, of course.

One of the only knocks on Wallace has been his defense at third base. That may no longer be an issue. Recently, Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos chatted with fans on MLB.com about the Halladay trade and prospects for the Blue Jays in the future. During the chat, Anthropoulos said the following:

We think Wallace is capable of playing third. But, we see him being an above average defensive first baseman. Our hope is to have a strong as a defensive club as we can and putting players in a position where they have a chance to impact the club in the best way defensively.

Sure sounds as if Brett's days manning the hot corner are over. In my opinion, this is a positive move because now he can concentrate on what he does best - crushing the baseball! Back in July, he was traded to the A's in the deal that sent Matt Holliday to the Cardinals. Regardless of where he played in 2009, albeit in the Texas League (AA) or the Pacific Coast League (AAA) - for two different organizations, no less - Wallace proved he's ready for the bigs. For the year, he hit .293 with 20 homers and a .822 OPS. Sure, with the move to first base, we'll want to see him get that .455 slugging percentage a bit higher. Even so, as Bill Root pointed out after Brett's trade to Oakland, "The Arizona State alum has hit at every level in the minors." If that's not enough of a ringing endorsement, Root later proclaims, "he has the skills to win a batting title if he keeps progressing." Upon arriving to the A's organization, Wallace had his best stretch of the season, batting .302 with 9 homers in 182 at-bats.

So when might we see these two top-flight prospects playing in the majors? According to Anthropoulos, (from the aforementioned chat session):

I'd say both Drabek and Wallace are very close. But we don't want to put expectations with respect to a time line on them arriving in Toronto. Since Wallace got to Triple-A last year, you could argue that he is the closest but with Drabek having good success in Double-A last year, he could certainly come fast as well just like Jesse Litsch did.

Barring injuries, MLBFP is willing to bet the house that these guys will be regulars at the Rogers Centre by the end of 2010. So that leaves us with just one player to cover - catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud.

Last season, D'Arnaud played for Single-A Lakewood in the Sally League. When we think Sally, we automatically turn to our friend, Mike Newman and his Scouting the Sally blog. Newman grades Travis really high, as this snippet proves:

At his peak, I would not be surprised to see D'Arnaud surface as a .270-.285 hitter with 18-25 home run power while contributing above average defense and plus game management skills. Among the current catching crop, this would place him in the same company as Geovany Soto, and Miguel Montero who profile as above average regulars, if not occasional all-star caliber players. Select company indeed, but D'Arnaud has the tools and projection to reach those heights. Prospect analysts who regard him as little more than a throw in are seriously undercutting his ability. The Blue Jays gained an excellent prospect.

Those might seem like some lofty expectations, but Newman has been scouting the Sally League for some time now. We at MLBFP highly respect his opinions.

I understand that losing Doc Halladay is a tough pill to sawllow for you Jays fans. But hey, you were going to lose him at the end of the season for nothing! Your new GM came through big in flipping Doc for Drabek and Wallace. Both are blue chippers, just a hair shy of performing in the Major Leagues, potentially at a very high level. Hang in there, Toronto! Anthropoulos might be the real deal.

The Mets Are Doomed, And Other Offseason Overreactions

Eric Simon — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

"Why did I sign with Boston and not the Mets? There were 82.5 million reasons." (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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The local rags are absolutely killing Omar Minaya and the Mets for their failure to attract any big names to Queens so far this offseason. The story goes like this: the Mets were terrible last season and the Phillies have appeared in back-to-back World Series, so the Mets have no choice but to jerk at the knees and spend big-time money as quickly as possible. Look- the Red Sox already signed two key free agents and are itching to acquire Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres! Check it out- the Phillies went out and traded for one of the best pitchers in baseball! Dang- even the Nationals are drawing interest from free agent pitchers. If the Mets don't do something irrational soon they'll be doomed to finish fourth again in 2010!

I'd like to see the Mets be a bit more aggressive in pursuing some of the more attractive free agents -- Matt Holliday in particular -- but there's no need to act like a crazy person waving a fistful of cash around a used car lot. The Mets have been mostly quiet since the free agency doors swung open last month, and now that John Lackey has landed in Boston and Roy Halladay has been traded to Philadelphia, outside forces are putting even more pressure on the Mets to step up and do something and, what's more, they're slamming the Mets for failing to acquire either of those players. I guess it makes good copy, but I'd personally be underwhelmed if the Mets had made either of those two deals..

John Lackey - Lackey signed with the Red Sox for five years and $82.5 million. That's an average annual value of $16.5 million for a pitcher who hasn't posted a sub-4.00 tRA or thrown 180 innings since 2007. Lackey turned 31 in October and his strikeout rate has declined steadily from a high of 8.57 in 2005 to a barely-league-average 7.09 last year. He still has very good control and he doesn't allow too many homeruns, but he has missed time due to injury in each of the past two seasons and there's a very good chance that his best years are behind him. The bottom line is that Lackey is a good, not great, pitcher, and Boston has just committed almost $17 million a year to him for the next half-decade. I suspect that if he had any interest in coming to the Mets that it would have cost them even more than the Sox paid.

Roy Halladay - Halladay is a terrific pitcher, but it's just not clear that the Phillies have improved themselves much for 2010, and it's quite possible that they've put themselves in a far worse position for 2011 and beyond. Halladay will make $15.75 million next year -- $6 million paid by the Blue Jays -- in the final year of the deal he signed with Toronto. Cliff Lee will make $9 million next year, so the cost difference to the Phillies is negligible. The Phillies then signed Halladay to a three-year extension at $20 million per season that will carry him through age 36, and there's a vesting option worth another $20 million for 2014. If Halladay is healthy enough to reach the innings-pitched threshold for the option to vest, we're talking about a five-year, $90 million deal in total, which is a lot of money for a pitcher -- an admittedly great one -- who is already in his mid-thirties. Nevermind that the Phillies had to trade Lee just to get Halladay to the table to sign the extension. Add in the fact that the Mets didn't have anyone like Lee to trade for Halladay in the first place and I just don't get how you can denigrate them for failing to make a similar deal.

I guess that's it, really, and because the Mets didn't make either of those two iffy deals we have to live with the insufferable moanings of local columnists disparaging the Mets for their relative inactivity. There are plenty of things to dislike about Omar Minaya and the Mets' approach to, well, everything, but not overpaying for Lackey or Halladay shouldn't be counted among them. I would also urge Minaya not to acquiesce to the pitchfork-mob ramblings of the New York scribes, who care only about the next day's column (or the next minute's inane Tweet) and would be all-too-happy if the Mets went out and signed Jason Bay to a six-year, $100 million deal, just so they could rag on them for that one, too.

I don't think the Mets are merely sitting back and waiting for the action to come to them, but I do believe they are taking a measured approach to free agency -- and the trade market, I suppose -- and are certainly in a good position right now to land either Bay or Holliday. Teams like the Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees, who might otherwise compete with the Mets for those players' services, have already committed their money and open outfield spots to other players, so the Mets are in no way obligated to overpay for any of the remaining free agents. Since the Red Sox's four-year, $60 million offer is probably off the table, unless some other team has come along and expressed interest in Bay there's no sense in the Mets guaranteeing five years -- let alone six -- to bring Bay into the fold when there is nobody else against whom they are bidding. To that end, I sincerely hope that the Mets' reported interest in Holliday is legitimate, because there's no better way to get Bay to come around to your line of thinking than by making a comparable offer to Bay's free-agent rival (so to speak).

At all events, the Mets aren't actually in the inescapable morass of woe into which everyone has seemingly cast them. They have money, they have options, and, goodness willing, they have some kind of plan. We're as critical of them here as anyone, but I think it's probably time to lighten up just a bit.

Holliday's Mystery Suitor: Baltimore

DanUpBaby — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 07:51:00 -0000

Nothing says Lukewarm Stove season like a rebuilding team making bids on the biggest remaining free agent contract of the offseason. I don't want to start doubting Scott Boras now, because he's given me no reason to in the past, but if the Orioles are being floated as the other team this late in the game—well, the Yankees and Mets are presumably way under the radar on this one.

I actually wouldn't hate this move from Baltimore's standpoint. They've got a pretty good system, with some young pitching set to renovate what was a hilariously bad rotation—they collectively managed 58 quality starts, six fewer than the next team and 41 fewer than league leading Atlanta—and signing Garrett Atkins and trading for Kevin Millwood are low-risk moves that will be an easy upgrade from Melvin Mora and the back of that rotation's awful work. The Orioles, like the Pirates in the NL Central, simply can't afford to be terrible any more; their attendance has fallen into a huge hole and they're in a division that squashes the hopes and dreams of plucky fans as a matter of course. Their moves in this offseason have pushed them toward being respectable in the short term without hindering their chances of being good in the long term.

But while spending a ton of money on a free agent would be the perfect capper to an offseason designed to inspire fanbase confidence, this is not the right offseason, and Matt Holliday is not the right free agent. The Orioles already have too many cheap, effective outfielders—Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, perpetual tradebait Luke Scott, and former Cubs super-prospect and erstwhile hometown discount inducer Felix Pie are all competing for at-bats—and all of their most pressing needs, and the easiest places to pick up runs against a troupe of very real replacement players, are on the pitching side. O's management seems to have understood that to this point, replacing their worst players with some potentially average players and Mike Gonzalez. Holliday would be a step back from that plan.

Of course, the Orioles not making their rumored move does not mean the Cardinals do sign him, as wonderful a system as that would be. All that implausibility still leaves Matt Holliday wanting more than $128 million, and the Cardinals (reasonably) not wanting quite that much Matt Holliday.

The payroll is not a gift card; the money DeWitt is planning to spend right now does not expire, and if he spends it all in the next thirty days he will not receive an even larger inheritance. But the Cardinals' other options are looking increasingly unappetizing. From a blurb about how the Cardinals are not interested in Chien-Ming Wang, but might be:

The Cardinals have said if they fail to re-sign Holliday they could turn to signing a veteran starting pitcher for the fifth spot in the rotation. Their preference would be to do so on a one-year deal.

Try not to be too excited about that sentence, or this one, because according to VEB's hit-tracker you're probably reading it at work: if the Cardinals do not manage to sign a popular, slugging outfielder to the largest contract in the history of the franchise, thereby setting its course for the next decade, they could sign a veteran starting pitcher like Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year deal. For all we know, this conditional has been around for the last several years—the Cardinals didn't sign Matt Holliday in any of them, and as a result picked up Kyle Lohse, Kip Wells, Brett Tomko, and Matt Clement.

I don't envy Mozeliak and DeWitt here; this is simply awful timing for the Cardinals' last serious free-payroll run at the free agent market before they need to worry about Pujols. Jason Bay, whose contractual demands—he might want five years—are relatively piddling, is the only other Big Name player on the market, and the defensive collapse brought on by his knee problems in 2007 makes him a much riskier upgrade. If Holliday falls through, that's it; for all their good intentions, the Cardinals will have little choice but to have a typical Cardinals offseason.

If that means an outfield cobbled together from spare parts, here's my current pick—a Jack Cust/Allen Craig platoon with a variation on the old Killer Bees tag team trick. La Russa has them both wear masks, and between innings Brendan Ryan is used to create a distraction; if pro wrestling has taught me anything, and it has, the umpire won't know that Craig has secretly taken left field while his back was turned.

Non-Holliday front: Future Redbirds has begun counting down their top twenty Cardinals prospects. Notable, given our discussion of Sickels's list: Bryan Anderson rates thirteenth.

Rumor: Orioles interested in Matt Holliday

Stacey — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:40:20 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Matt ponders the possibility of being reunited with Garrett Atkins. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi report that the Orioles are pursuing, at some level, Matt Holliday.

The Orioles have jumped into the bidding, though both the seriousness of their efforts and Holliday’s desire to play in Baltimore are in question, major-league sources say.

Holliday, 29, is unlikely to go to the Orioles — a team coming off 12 straight losing seasons — unless they make him a much stronger offer than the Cardinals

The article details a number of reasons Holliday to the O's makes sense, including the O's young talent, their low payroll, and the fact that Holliday and new Oriole Garrett Atkins are BFF.

I think everyone would agree that, regardless of whether or not it's a good idea, the chance of Holliday coming to the O's is a long shot at best. Unfortunately for Scott Boras and Matt Holliday, neither the Yankees or Red Sox seem interested in signing the left fielder. It's possible that the Cardinals are bidding against themselves right now and somebody put the word out there that the Orioles are in it to give the illusion that there is more demand than actually exists.

If the Orioles are legitimately interested in Matt Holliday, I personally don't think it's a good idea. It's not that I think he's not a good player; he's obviously quite good. But he's going to cost a ton of money and he plays the outfield. Of all the problems the Orioles currently have, the outfield isn't one. The rumored offer on the table from the Cardinals is 5 years at $16M/year, and you'd have to think the O's would need to go beyond that to get Holliday to Baltimore. With Nick Markakis and Adam Jones anchored in the outfield, Nolan Reimold not far behind, and Felix Pie ready to pick up any slack, that's $16M a year that would be much better served filling the O's needs in the infield or to continue to build up the pitching staff.

Of course, signing Holliday would provide the Orioles with the flexibility to trade Reimold or move him to DH. I don't know what kind of trade value he'd have right now as he's had part of one successful major league season and is coming off injury. But moving him to DH would allow Luke Scott to be traded, or if not, put at 1B on a regular basis. Holliday could also DH some to give Pie time in the outfield. I mean, it does open up possibilities.

But $16M a year for an outfielder? Count me out.

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

26 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

Staying the Course

jscape2000 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:00:26 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - ASSOCIATED PRESS

It's great to be any age, and be a Yankee.

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Today is December 15, 2009. Pitchers and catchers report on February 17, 2010. That's 2 months and 2 days, or 9 weeks and a day. It is a long offseason.

Brian Cashman has kept his trigger finger under control so far this offseason, avoiding committing too much to any of the trades or free agents the Yankees have been linked to.

He's upgraded centerfield at the cost of a minor league centerfielder who needed another year of seasoning, a reliever who might not have made the team out of Spring Training, and a minor league starter who might have challenged for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Then, he returned the Yanks' key free agent at roughly the same cost as last season.

Now he's working on bringing in another pitcher to fight for that fifth spot. While I doubt Cash will be willing to give Ben Sheets the same $12M contract Pettitte received, we have witnessed an impressive exercise in self control. If Cashman thinks that Ben Sheets is the best fit for the Yankees' rotation, I trust his judgment.

Former Pirates closer Matt Capps is still listening to offers, though he'll probably want the future dollars that come with saves more than to be a part of the Bridge to Mo.

Super-subs Jerry Hairston Jr. and Mark DeRosa are both still available. Hank Blalock probably wants a starting job, but if he'd come to sometimes play the field, sometimes DH, and sometimes PH, he's a strong candidate to rebound from his 2009 .250 BABIP (career .299). Reed Johnson could backup any of the outfield spots, covering RF while Swisher serves as occasional 1B/DH. If you want a pure DH, Jim Thome still has a great eye and a ton of power, and Nick Johnson is an OBP machine.

Plus Johnny Damon, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday are all still on the market. Any one of them transforms the lineup from 'merely' best in the league to legendary.

Today is the 15th of December, and the Yankees have several ways to improve themselves.

Tuesday Rockpile: Roy Halladay will pitch at Coors Field in 2010 (maybe)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:24:35 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

By now, Doc surely must be having nightmares of being chased by mic booms

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I know everyone is waking up in hopes of hearing the final details of the Halladay/Lee blockbuster, but alas, there's nothing to report yet. Here's some appetizers while you wait:

If the trade is finalized, Halladay has a 60% chance of taking the mound once during the regular season next year. Philadelphia comes to town May 10-12.

It must be terrible to play in Toronto, where a meteor striking New England provides the only chance of playoff action. Not surprisingly, Roy Halladay wants postseason action (Dusty Saunders, Denver Post). One interesting line:

He has never pitched in a single major-league postseason game. Not one. That's about to change.

When is the last time an NL team was so supremely awesome on paper in November that playoff tickets could already be printed?

Someoned analyzed the Halladay/Lee insanity with Trade Value Calculator at Beyond the Box Score. If Blicks' calculations are correct, the trade heavily favors Toronto (though their value is most volatile as it is chiefly tied to prospects) while Philly paid over $23million in value for a 1.0 WAR increase. Of course, Cliff Lee's reluctance to sign on longterm and Halladay's requisite 3-year extension in place changes the motives.

RJ Anderson at Fangraphs writes about Cliff Lee. One thing is certain - Halladay cannot be more dominant against the Rockies than Lee was. It's not like Halladay dominated the Rockies the one time he pitched against us. Oh, wait.

Rockies Links

Rockies are among Capps' suitors | ColoradoRockies.com: News (Thomas Harding)
Colorado has apparently called Matt Capps' agent, which naturally could mean anything. There is apparent mutual interest, as Capps enjoyed playing for Jim Tracy in 2006-07 and the Rockies need a right-handed reliever. The late inning roles are filled, so Capps would have to be filling the role Jose Contreras would leave. I assume O'Dowd would have mentioned this in the call he placed to agent Paul Kinzer, so the fact there remains "mutual interest" suggests to me that the former Pirate isn't shutting the door on a massively reduced role. However, if he still wants to pitch late in games, one of the other eight teams that have expressed interest will likely give him that opportunity. If the Rockies do acquire him, he could be next in line for the Bob Apodaca tune up. Something tells me 'Dac could get Capps to throw his fastball for strikes again.

Jon Heyman of SI.com writes of Yorvit Torrealba's grievance suit against the New York Mets from 2007. The hearing is scheduled for tomorrow regarding Omar Minaya backing out on a 3-year $14.4million contract following the 2007 season. Torrealba claims "the Mets falsely created the impression that [he] was an injury risk."

Atkins Non-Tendered | FanGraphs Baseball - Dave Allen tries to analyze Atkins' decline. While acknowledging his numbers have dropped each year since 2006, he lumps 2006-08 and compares is BABIP to 2009. The result - his fly balls aren't turning into home runs or hits anymore, effectively meaning he has lost his ability to hit the ball hard.

Reward Retrospective: The 2007 National League MVP - Beyond the Box Score
A hot topic during the NLDS was Matt Holliday's loss to Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP. Should Rollins have won? No. But should Holliday have won? Turns out he wasn't even a clear choice for second (nointangiblesjuststatisticallyWARspeaking).

New York Yankees News & Notes: Thanks for the memories, Godzilla

Ed Valentine — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:18:24 -0000

Hideki Matsui is now a member of the Angels. So, thank you Hideki for seven terrific seasons as a Yankee. Oh, and especially for this.

I was surprised Monday by Boston's signing of Mike Cameron, which leaves Jason Bay and Matt Holliday on the market. I still believe the Yankees most logical, and best, course of action is to re-sign Johnny Damon. That isn't going to happen, however, until Damon and uber-agent Scott Boras realize his price tag has got to come down. With Bay and Holliday still available, and Curtis Granderson already in pinstripes, the Yankees are firmly in the driver's seat here. I believe they will eventually get Damon at their price.

As for Boston's signing of John Lackey I'm not worried about that much, either. Lackey's good, but not Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee good. Besides, the Yankee pitching is fine. And the addition of a Ben Sheets/Justin Duscherer type would be enough for me at this point.

Want to show off your love for the Yankees? How about getting yourself a 2009 World Series vanity license plate.

The Yankees didn't want Chien-Ming Wang. It seems like there sure are a lot of team, however, interested in acquiring the former Yankee ace.

You had to figure this would happen eventually. Nick Swisher is now a TV star.

John Lackey's Signing: The Potential Ripple Effect

ltrain2 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:38:24 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Is Adrian Gonzalez, pictured here, the next big name acquisition to be announced by the Boston Red Sox following the recent signing of free agent pitcher John Lackey?

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In what can surely be considered an understatement; the Red Sox's recent off-season activity has the Major League Baseball community buzzing, namely the population that makes up 'Red Sox Nation.'

On Monday, following reports that discussions surrounding re-signing Jason Bay had soured, the Red Sox proceeded to sign the top available starting pitcher via free agency, John Lackey, to a 5-year deal. The arrival of the former Angels' ace in Boston has been dissected in a bevy of ways since news broke earlier today by nearly every media outlet, each offering their own unique opinion on the situation. Some suggest that Lackey represents a reallocation of the funds originally intended for Bay. However, I don't believe that there is enough emphasis being placed on the big picture as a result of the acquisition, and the subsequent sequence of events that may potentially follow.

While some may argue that because Jason Bay is no longer an option, the Red Sox may have simply taken their money and invested in another big ticket free agent instead. If that were the case, wouldn't it have been more intelligent to focus on someone like Matt Holliday or Adrian Beltre to help fill the holes that Boston has both defensively and offensively, rather than acquire a starting pitcher? While there's no denying that the depth in regards to the starting rotation was a point of emphasis for management heading into the off-season, it seems rather narrow-minded to use such a large sum of financial resources to fill that void while continuing to ignore the ones at third base and left field.

Is it possible that Mike Cameron is set to be Jason Bay's replacement, especially given the defensive upgrade he represents, and that they simply used the money that they saved by not going after Matt Holliday on the combination of Cameron and Lackey? Sure, it's not a farfetched theory by any means. However, after much deliberation on the topic, I have come to the conclusion that there may be more to the Red Sox's recent acquisitions than what is evident on the surface.

One piece of information that slipped through the cracks today, which is understandable given the more notable moves made, is that the Red Sox made a two year contract offer reportedly worth $15 million dollars to left-handed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. Chapman, a 21 year-old starting pitcher with a fastball that consistently touches triple-digits, could offer a bit of foreshadowing into the Red Sox's plan of action in relation to their void at third base.

The $80-85 million dollar contract awarded to Lackey is what originally made me look into the potential reasoning behind extending $15 million to Chapman who, like Lackey, is a starting pitcher. No, Chapman would not likely be added to the MLB-level rotation come opening day, but there are still some flags being raised by Boston's pursuit of the young talent. Why continue attempting to accrue starting pitching depth with a hole still evident at not only the third base position, but in the lineup as well?

Consider this; the addition of Lackey now gives Boston six viable options for their rotation, as it stands now, heading into 2010. With Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Wakefield, a once seemingly questionable rotation has become more than formidable, arguably the best in baseball. Where does extending a $15 million dollar contract to a young, unproven, prospect-type pitcher make sense given the Red Sox's glaring needs elsewhere?

It would not only make sense, but it would actually appear rather brilliant in its creativeness, if the plan of action was to turn around and begin shopping the attractive young talent that is Clay Buchholz. Buchholz, known for his devastating arsenal of off-speed pitches as well as his limitless potential, seemingly finds himself immersed in nearly every trade discussion involving the Red Sox the last few years. So why stop now?

One reason that Theo Epstein has been reluctant to move Buchholz to this point is that it is difficult to find a young starting pitcher with that much potential without having to develop internally, as they did with Clay. This is where Aroldis Chapman becomes relevant to this discussion.

Matt Holliday had been the center of rumors regarding the Red Sox's planned route in the event that Bay could not be retained. However, recent reports (especially coming from Holliday's agent, Scott Boras) suggest that signing Holliday would require a deal exceeding that in which Jason Bay is commanding at the present time. Boras has been rather vocal in his opinion that Holliday is a more valuable asset than Bay to an interested team. Having said that, and assuming that Adrian Beltre is now out of this off-season's budget limit, it's hard to imagine that the Red Sox are left with many options to plug third base via free agency. It's also safe to assume that management is left unsatisfied with Cameron replacing Bay if it means that someone like Casey Kotchman is going to take over the first base duties, with Youkilis moving to third base in this scenario (also making the assumption that moving Varitek back behind the plate full-time, while shifting Youkilis to third and Victor Martinez to first, is not a realistic option).

All of this leads me to believe that the Red Sox next plan of action is to begin gauging interest from teams regarding the aforementioned Clay Buchholz.

With the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman, moving Clay Buchholz could become more justifiable to the Red Sox. Essentially, the Chapman signing may simply be a case of replacing one young pitching prospect with another, allowing Boston to utilize Buchholz's trade-appeal and acquire the corner infield-bat that they so desperately need.

San Diego could potentially be a player in any discussion pertaining to Buchholz. The Red Sox have discussed the availability of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez with the Padres recently, but to no avail, citing Boston's hesitation to move Buchholz as a main reason. Reports, prior to the Lackey signing, made it appear as though no progress was being made on that front. Padres general manager Jed Hoyer reportedly requested a combination of Buchholz and either Casey Kelly (a pitching prospect widely considered untouchable in such discussions) or outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.

One interesting aspect of negotiations is that Jason McLeod, a former Red Sox scouting director, is now employed by Hoyer. It has been said that both have a detailed understanding and admiration of the Boston system.

While the Red Sox still expected to retain Jason Bay, it was understandable for Epstein to be adverse to the idea of unloading Buchholz, especially given his opinion that the rotation (even with Buchholz) lacked depth. Also, because Bay was still an option at that point, the need for an offensive upgrade was slightly less glaring. With Bay and Holliday now out of the mix, and the potential signings of both Lackey and Chapman, the attention has to be redirected back to the original need for offense at one of the corner infield spots left vacant by Mike Lowell's departure (still pending). A platoon of Mike Cameron and Jeremy Hermida is probably not the caliber of replacement in left field that Boston entered the off-season with in mind, but acquiring someone such as Adrian Gonzalez would have to help alleviate any concerns regarding offensive potency that may still linger.

As I implied earlier, San Diego is very interested in Clay Buchholz, even going as far as insisting his presence in any potential package offered by Boston. If Chapman is signed, Buchholz immediately becomes more expendable, and Gonzalez that much more appealing. Boston's interest in Chapman has been evident for some time, is it possible now that his addition could represent the subtraction of Buchholz? Clay's availability has to increase exponentially in the event that the Red Sox land Chapman.

It is starting to appear as though Theo Epstein has been underestimated in his approach this off-season all along. His lack of activity seems to have directly corresponded with the progress made in re-signing Bay. As soon as the discussions began to break down, Theo started making moves. My feeling is that he has had this plan in his back pocket the whole time he was in talks with Bay and his representatives, and is only now beginning to deploy it.

One fact remains certain, Boston's needs a power-hitter to compliment their lineup following the departure of Jason Bay. With Cameron and Hermida joining J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury, completing a respectable core of outfielders, the most obvious place to fill that void remains at one of the corner infield spots.

It's hard to imagine a better solution than someone like Adrian Gonzalez.

No More Complaining About Payrolls for Red Sox Fans

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:28:27 -0000

More photos » by M. Spencer Green - AP

about 1 month ago: Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein talks to reporters during Major League Baseball's 2009 General Managers Meetings, Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2009 in Chicago. (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)

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It was always a comfortable, if perhaps not entirely respectable fallback to point at the Yankees' payroll. It was not the most valid of excuses--fans of small market teams would be and were entirely justified at laughing their heads off at the $120 million giant crying about cash. But the Yankees' $200 million was a clear outlier, heads and tails above the #2 team in the league.

Red Sox fans will have to give up that excuse in 2010, though. Sure, barring more signings, the Yankees will still be ahead of the Red Sox by a fair amount. But as it stands now, with the Yankees aiming at a reported $185 million figure and the Red Sox standing around $150 million--give or take a few million based on arbitration guesses--the Yankees are not in a league of their own anymore. While last year only the smallest market teams in the league could claim that the Sox had as much an advantage over them as the Yankees did over the Sox, this year it will likely be well over half the teams in the league.

The $150 million will not all be on the field for the Sox. $9 million comes from Julio Lugo, who was traded to the Cardinals last year on the condition that the Sox pay for him. Mike Lowell, though he's still with the team for now, could also well be in Texas within the week, still costing the Sox $9 million himself. Add in $1.5 million in buyouts, and that's nearly $20 million in bad contract money.

But what impact does this have on the average reader? Well, to start with, it's gonna be tough to expect any more signings this year. Matt Holliday is almost certainly out. Jason Bay will join him. Instead, if the organization is willing to go all out this year, expect at most mid-money, 1-year contracts. Say, Mike Cameron. Given the hole at 3B, and $3 million potentially coming off the books from a Lowell trade, even Adrian Beltre is not impossible. But if anyone was expecting a big push in the outfield department, think again.

Popular thinking has the Red Sox shipping Clay Buchholz and others off to the Padres in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, and while Adrian Gonzalez has a very team-friendly contract at the moment, that's bound to change within the next few years. I doubt the Sox would be willing to invest not only Clay Buchholz, but also Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland in any deal for Adrian Gonzalez that does not also include an extension. Any extension would cost a great deal of money, even considering discounts given a guaranteed raise over the years remaining on his current contract. Even with a Lowell trade, Gonzalez would likely put the Sox at around $160 million even without a left fielder. The rumor of Mike Cameron would put that number closer to an incredible $170 million.

Also at issue is next year's payroll. Assuming a $170 million dollar payroll this year, the Red Sox will have a number of unpopular contracts coming off their books. But just how much spending money will that result in? First, both "bad contracts" come off the board for $20 million. Then there's David Ortiz' $13 million, Josh Beckett's $12 million, Jason Varitek's $3 million, and Victor Martinez' $7.7 million. After losing all that, the Sox will barely be under the $120 million they spent in 2009. And that's not even factoring in raises! Youkilis gets $3 million more. Daisuke is up $2 million, Lester adds $2 million, and Pedroia $2 million. Let's mercifully assume that the Red Sox' 7 players going to their next year in Arbitration adds only $10-15 million, and we're still left with Ellsbury and Buchholz starting their first arbitration years, and due for probably $8 million between them at least. A conservative estimate puts the Red Sox well over $140 million starting 2010's offseason, and that's without a catcher, DH, and one top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Forget about Joe Mauer, this team might not be willing to sign A.J. Pierzynski.

There are 2 directions the Sox front office could go with. Either this is an all-out gamble for the next few years, with money on the Sox' prospects coming through to fill in holes (Either Exposito, Wagner, or possibly Max Ramirez at catcher, maybe Lars at DH), or the Red Sox' ownership is committing to setting a new bar for payroll. If this isn't just a flash in the pan of spending, then it's official: we're rivaling the Yankees, and it's time to swallow our jeers and, quite frankly, show some shame. I, for one, have been calling for a salary cap and floor for years, and I will not stop doing so now just because we're now spending as much as our greatest enemies. But I will probably talk quieter, and I'll expect even more derision for it.

Either way, though, at least those $5 ticket hikes are going to the right places.

Innumerable thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for so many numbers in this piece. Fantastic site for anything contract related.