SB Nation - Troy Tulowitzki

Saturday Rockpile: Contreras narrowing his choices while the Rockies try to maintain bullpen depth.

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 14:54:34 -0000

La Esquina: The numbers show that Jose Contreras might be a valuable closer. - ESPN
Jose Contreras won't be pitching in Japan, but is starting to narrow down his options on where to pitch next season. Contreras still wants to start, but according to his agent he may be willing to pitch out of the 'pen. I'm hoping the Rockies find themselves in the mix for "The Bronze Titan," as he would be of great value to any team's bullpen - especially if he's still able to continue throwing in the upper 90's.

Rincon returning to Rockies | MLB.com: News
The Rox re-signed ~~Satan~~ ~~Josh Fogg~~ Juan Rincon to a minor league deal yesterday. Yippee.

Sources: Jamey Carroll has agreed to terms with the Los Angeles Dodgers on a two-year deal - ESPN
The former Rocktober hero has agreed to terms with the enemy - at two years and just under $4MM.

Rob Neyer: Selecting the top 100 players of the decade - ESPN
I didn't see anybody post this during the week, but I could have overlooked it (if so, my apologies). Anyway, ESPN.com's Rob Neyer has Todd Helton as the 8th-best player of the decade. I'm surprised the Toddfather was placed this high, but he put up some pretty gaudy numbers in pretty much every year of the 00's (with the exception of 2008), particularly in the OBP department.

MLB -- Baseball Prospectus: Hanley Ramirez, Justin Upton, Joe Mauer and Tim Lincecum project as brightest MLB stars of 2010 through 2019 - ESPN
In a related piece, Troy Tulowitzki falls under the "Honorable Mention" section for players who will shape the next decade in Major League Baseball. I may be a homer, but I think it's a crime that Tulo doesn't fall in the Top 20 on this list. It may be an even bigger crime that Clayton Kershaw doesn't, either.

LVBP.com - Liga Venezolana de Beisbol Profesional
The statistics page for the Venezuelan Winter League. Players of note:

Carlos Gonzalez is hitting .289/.325/.526 in 114 at-bats with 7 home runs and 21 RBI's.
Yorvit Torrealba is hitting .314/.419/.471 in 51 at-bats.
Jhoulys Chacin went 1-2 with a 4.73 ERA, allowing 39 hits in 32.1 innings. He struck out 24 and walked 12.
Edgmer Escalona has posted a 2.70 ERA in 6.2 innings, striking out 7 and walking 5
Franklin Morales has walked six batters in four innings of relief.

Oh, and there should be no stock put into any of the above stats, whatsoever.

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

25 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

View full size photo »

I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

Browse more photos »

Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

I'm Not Asking for Miracles from Marco Scutaro

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:52:56 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

5 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays' Marco Scutaro hits a two-run single during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Sunday, July 5, 2009, at Yankee Stadium in New York. The Yankees defeated the Blue Jays 10-8. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Last year, Marco Scutaro posted a line of .282/.379/.409, well above his production during any other year of his career to date. Given that this happened at age 34 with a slightly inflated BABIP and an unusually low GB:FB rate, it seems likely that Scutaro will fail to live up to those numbers this year. Bill James, for one, predicts he will regress to a .264/.347/.381 hitter.

And I'm here to tell everyone that that's absolutely fine.

When talking about the shortstop position on this team, one has to temper their expectations. While we would all like to have Hanley back, or be able to pencil Troy Tulowitzki into a lineup, that simply isn't a realistic scenario. What we are confronted with instead is a team which received a .656 OPS from the various men who manned the position last year. One which has had player after player make game-deciding errors.

And what were our options to fix this? J.J. Hardy got snatched up quickly by the Twins. The front office is unwilling to trust Jed Lowrie until he has convinced them he can still hit from the left side. Many seemed downright excited to settle for a defensive-replacement type shortstop and accept a big old hole in the 9-spot again, or to try kooky experimental options which involved sacrificing Dustin Pedroia's extraordinary defense at second by moving him to a position his arm isn't suited for.

If you ask me, that would be settling. Scutaro is not.

What Marco Scutaro brings to the table is average. Not batting average, but just being average. It doesn't sound nice—it's the antithesis of flashy—but it is average at a position where our play has been anything but for the last 5 years. This is a position where Nick Green's random hot streak actually gave us hope.

On offense, Scutaro is not going to kill the ball. If he manages to slug .400 he'll be overachieving. But he does avoid that black-hole designation. While many aspects that contributed to Scutaro's career year are subject to regression, I for one don't believe that his plate discipline is one of them. Scutaro has maintained an OBP over .330 for the last 4 years, and I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed north of .350 this year as he continues to make pitchers work and takes advantage of walks. .379 might be a bit high to maintain, but we don't need that from a #9 hitter. We just need him to be average.

Scutaro's defense should also be, at worst, average. While a cursory glance at his fielding RAR shows inconsistency in the past, Scutaro has spent the last 2500-or-so innings playing average-to-great defense. Going even further in depth, there's definitely a suggestion that Scutaro benefits from consistent playing time. His range at shortstop has never been impressive, only once (2008) breaking into positive numbers. What's made him into an average fielding shortstop of late is that he's not hurting himself via the error, going from .3 runs below average in 2006, to .6 above average in 2007, 1.9 above in 2008, and finally 4.6 above in 2009. What we're left with now is a guy who, while he may not get to every ball, will turn the ones he does get to into outs at a consistent rate. No more frusturation of Renteria or Lugo. No excitement, either. Just consistency.

And who knows, maybe we get lucky. It's worth noting that Marco Scutaro DID post a wOBA of .354 last year. That he was worth 11.2 fielding runs above average in 2008. The potential is there just like it was for, say, a J.J. Hardy. Scutaro can be great like he was last year. He can be worth $20 million where we're only paying him 5. But the important point to take away from it all is that we don't need him to be. Critics of this deal claim Theo is trying to capture lightning in a bottle the way he did with Lugo, but nothing could be further from the truth. Instead, Epstein is trying to put out a 5-year-old wildfire by getting someone we can depend on to be, if nothing else, average.

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Teixeira at 4

42 votes

Wright at 12

27 votes

Rollins at 21

22 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: BP's Eric Seidman's Top 10 Fantasy Players

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 20:00:13 -0000

by Nick Wass - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman, right, rounds the bases as he is greeted by third base coach Pat Listach (4) after Zimmerman hit a three-run home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 5-4. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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In his chat yesterday over at Baseball Prospectus, Eric Seidman was asked the following:

Tex Premium Lager (Jersey): Even More Blatant Fantasy Keeper Question (tm): In no order, who are the 10 most valuable position players for the next few years? Most seem obvious (Pujols, Hanley, Utley, etc.) but I'd like your take on the matter. Maybe someone (you?) can take over Nate Silver's top 50 list, which was one of my favorite articles each year.
Eric Seidman: I'll list the guys that instantly came to mind as that likely says a lot about their attributes: Pujols, Mauer, Hanley, Utley, Tulowitzki, J Upton, Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, Braun. Those aren't in order and there are definitely others to think about.

So, he answered this question off the top of his head, but he included David Wright in his top 10 fantasy players for "the next few years". Am I the only one who thinks Wright shouldn't be in the top 10? He leaves himself an out with the last sentence in his response, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

What surprised me was including Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman in his top 10. Granted both players are very good all around players-offensively and defensively-but are they top 10? I like Zimmerman alot as well, and could consider him should he duplicate his 2009 season in 2010. As for Tulo, I don't see him going 30-20 again in 2010.

Which player would you take out of his top 10?

Poll

Which player should NOT be in the top 10 fantasy player list for the next few years?

Ryan Zimmerman

33 votes

David Wright

29 votes

Troy Tulowitzki

40 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Pujols is National League MVP

GameFish — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:20:02 -0000

In the least unexpected news of all time, the Baseball Writers Association of America has voted unanimously to award Albert Pujols the NL MVP for the second year in a row, and the third time in his career:

Pujols received all 32 first-place votes, good for 448 ballot points. Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez garnered 15 second-place votes and 233 points. First baseman Ryan Howard of the Phillies was a close third with 217 points. He was followed by Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder and Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.

...

By some measures 2009 was Pujols' best year at the plate. He batted .327 with a .443 on-base percentage, a .658 slugging percentage, 47 home runs and 135 RBIs. Moreover, he did it for a division champion.

Pujols led the NL in on-base, slugging, homers and runs (124). He ranked second with 45 doubles, third with a career-high 115 walks, third with 135 RBIs and sixth with 186 hits. He won his fifth Silver Slugger Award.

The on-base percentage was the second-best of his career, and the slugging was his third-best mark. Pujols won his first NL home run title, he came two RBIs short of a personal best and equaled his own high of 16 stolen bases.

To summarize, Pujols owned.

While second place is nothing to scoff at, I still feel a little for Hanley, who stood to receive a $500,000 bonus from the Marlins if he won the MVP award. Hanley finished higher in the voting than any Florida Marlin ever, but I guess the team follows the notion that the second place winner is the first loser. And so they awarded him zilch. Then again, it's not as though Hanley's hurting for cash these days. I hereby retract my feelings of pity.

Congratulations, Albert.

Tuesday Rockpile: Pujols to be crowned today

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:02:47 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Tulo just beats out Pujols here. That won't happen today.

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The NL MVP award will be going back to St. Louis today at 11am MST. Albert Pujols won the award in 2005 and 2008. Aside from landslide drama, we might be interested to see where Troy Tulowitzki ends up on ballots. The MLB.com article made a serious mistake in appointing two Nationals as "dark horses" while leaving Tulo's name completely out of the article.

Tracy Ringolsby acknowledges the Rockies don't have a contender for MVP, but he still made sure purple would find its way on the voting tapestry with his vote:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Chase Utley
4. Hanley Ramirez
5. Prince Fielder
6. Andre Ethier
7. Pablo Sandoval
8. Adrian Gonzalez
9. Huston Street
10. Adam Wainwright

Free agent talk

MLB Rumors recently posted their Offseason Oulook for the Rockies, coming to the conclusion we all know - they won't be spending much money this offseason.

Hat tip to RMN here: Jason Grilli has signed with a seventh team. Who that team is has yet to be announced, but we can be certain it isn't the Rockies. Grilli was 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA with Colorado in 2008, and after being traded to Texas for cash in June, he had an ERA under two for much of the season.

Buster Olney tweets that teams are being aggressive in their pursuit of Randy Wolf. That's not surprising given the weak FA class. Marc Hulet from Fangraphs warns that the lefty may be a a Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing. Perhaps he meant a sheep with a wolf's name.

It is looking likely that the Dodgers won't trade for Roy Halladay to replace Wolf, as Ned Colletti doesn't want to part with Chad Billingsley. A deal hear is widely considered "a long shot."

The Colorado native could still land in "Los Angeles" though. With J.P. Ricciardi gone, the Angels have renewed interest, as Toronto's new GM might not require Erick Aybar in return.

Lastly, Are Metrics Blinding Our Perception? - NYTimes.com "Welcome to the Age of Metrics - or to the End of Instinct."

Emilio Bonifacio: The Audacity of Hope

GameFish — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:02:08 -0000

This might seem like a far-fetched idea, but I'm sure there were at least a few people who were disappointed when The Bonifacio Experiment™ finally ended last season. You know, like... maybe some of the members of Emilio's immediate family.

If you were one of those three people, our friend JCR at the Sun Sentinel has dug deep into the Bill James Handbook to find a reason for you to be filled with hope.

The manufactured runs section of the Bill James Handbook offers a pretty good indication of why the Marlins stuck with Bonifacio, and why come spring training they'll give him every opportunity to play himself into the starting lineup again.

Among National League players, only Michael Bourn (47) had a higher manufactured runs contribution than Bonifacio (32), who ranked ahead of David Wright (31), Dexter Fowler (29), Troy Tulowitzki (27), Matt Kemp (27) and Hanley Ramirez (27).

...

Thanks mostly to Bonifacio, Ramirez, and Chris Coghlan, who was third on the team with 21 manufactured runs, the Marlins ranked fifth in the NL with 169 manufactured runs. Ahead of them: the Mets (181), Reds (173), Dodgers ( 172) and Rockies (172). For the Marlins, that's a huge improvement over 2008, when they finished second-to-last in the majors with 125 manufactured runs, ahead of only the Padres (104). The Marlins in 2009 were considerably less dependent on home runs and extra-base hits.

So I guess if there's a positive side to being an out machine, it's being a productive-out machine. And if manufactured runs contribution can make up for his OBP and, well, everything else, the Marlins may have reason to continue The Bonifacio Experiment™ next season.

Or at the very least, we have one less reason to complain about it.