SB Nation - Yorvit Torrealba

Mariners may target Bengie Molina?

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 00:33:02 -0000

The Mariners are now turning their attention towards finding a veteran catcher to run their new and improved starting rotation.

Yorvit Torrealba and Bengie Molina are among possible targets, and sources believe the Mariners aren't looking for anything beyond two years.

The Mets are in talks with Bengie Molina, but they are still far apart on negotiations.

Rosenthal reports that the market is in a holding pattern until Molina signs.

"Once Bengie signs," one person in the industry said Saturday, "the catching market is going to go quick."

The Mets, Mariners, Giants, Astros, and Rockies, among others, are keeping tabs on the open catching market.

Saturday Rockpile: Contreras narrowing his choices while the Rockies try to maintain bullpen depth.

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 14:54:34 -0000

La Esquina: The numbers show that Jose Contreras might be a valuable closer. - ESPN
Jose Contreras won't be pitching in Japan, but is starting to narrow down his options on where to pitch next season. Contreras still wants to start, but according to his agent he may be willing to pitch out of the 'pen. I'm hoping the Rockies find themselves in the mix for "The Bronze Titan," as he would be of great value to any team's bullpen - especially if he's still able to continue throwing in the upper 90's.

Rincon returning to Rockies | MLB.com: News
The Rox re-signed ~~Satan~~ ~~Josh Fogg~~ Juan Rincon to a minor league deal yesterday. Yippee.

Sources: Jamey Carroll has agreed to terms with the Los Angeles Dodgers on a two-year deal - ESPN
The former Rocktober hero has agreed to terms with the enemy - at two years and just under $4MM.

Rob Neyer: Selecting the top 100 players of the decade - ESPN
I didn't see anybody post this during the week, but I could have overlooked it (if so, my apologies). Anyway, ESPN.com's Rob Neyer has Todd Helton as the 8th-best player of the decade. I'm surprised the Toddfather was placed this high, but he put up some pretty gaudy numbers in pretty much every year of the 00's (with the exception of 2008), particularly in the OBP department.

MLB -- Baseball Prospectus: Hanley Ramirez, Justin Upton, Joe Mauer and Tim Lincecum project as brightest MLB stars of 2010 through 2019 - ESPN
In a related piece, Troy Tulowitzki falls under the "Honorable Mention" section for players who will shape the next decade in Major League Baseball. I may be a homer, but I think it's a crime that Tulo doesn't fall in the Top 20 on this list. It may be an even bigger crime that Clayton Kershaw doesn't, either.

LVBP.com - Liga Venezolana de Beisbol Profesional
The statistics page for the Venezuelan Winter League. Players of note:

Carlos Gonzalez is hitting .289/.325/.526 in 114 at-bats with 7 home runs and 21 RBI's.
Yorvit Torrealba is hitting .314/.419/.471 in 51 at-bats.
Jhoulys Chacin went 1-2 with a 4.73 ERA, allowing 39 hits in 32.1 innings. He struck out 24 and walked 12.
Edgmer Escalona has posted a 2.70 ERA in 6.2 innings, striking out 7 and walking 5
Franklin Morales has walked six batters in four innings of relief.

Oh, and there should be no stock put into any of the above stats, whatsoever.

Tuesday Rockpile: Roy Halladay will pitch at Coors Field in 2010 (maybe)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:24:35 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

By now, Doc surely must be having nightmares of being chased by mic booms

Browse more photos »

I know everyone is waking up in hopes of hearing the final details of the Halladay/Lee blockbuster, but alas, there's nothing to report yet. Here's some appetizers while you wait:

If the trade is finalized, Halladay has a 60% chance of taking the mound once during the regular season next year. Philadelphia comes to town May 10-12.

It must be terrible to play in Toronto, where a meteor striking New England provides the only chance of playoff action. Not surprisingly, Roy Halladay wants postseason action (Dusty Saunders, Denver Post). One interesting line:

He has never pitched in a single major-league postseason game. Not one. That's about to change.

When is the last time an NL team was so supremely awesome on paper in November that playoff tickets could already be printed?

Someoned analyzed the Halladay/Lee insanity with Trade Value Calculator at Beyond the Box Score. If Blicks' calculations are correct, the trade heavily favors Toronto (though their value is most volatile as it is chiefly tied to prospects) while Philly paid over $23million in value for a 1.0 WAR increase. Of course, Cliff Lee's reluctance to sign on longterm and Halladay's requisite 3-year extension in place changes the motives.

RJ Anderson at Fangraphs writes about Cliff Lee. One thing is certain - Halladay cannot be more dominant against the Rockies than Lee was. It's not like Halladay dominated the Rockies the one time he pitched against us. Oh, wait.

Rockies Links

Rockies are among Capps' suitors | ColoradoRockies.com: News (Thomas Harding)
Colorado has apparently called Matt Capps' agent, which naturally could mean anything. There is apparent mutual interest, as Capps enjoyed playing for Jim Tracy in 2006-07 and the Rockies need a right-handed reliever. The late inning roles are filled, so Capps would have to be filling the role Jose Contreras would leave. I assume O'Dowd would have mentioned this in the call he placed to agent Paul Kinzer, so the fact there remains "mutual interest" suggests to me that the former Pirate isn't shutting the door on a massively reduced role. However, if he still wants to pitch late in games, one of the other eight teams that have expressed interest will likely give him that opportunity. If the Rockies do acquire him, he could be next in line for the Bob Apodaca tune up. Something tells me 'Dac could get Capps to throw his fastball for strikes again.

Jon Heyman of SI.com writes of Yorvit Torrealba's grievance suit against the New York Mets from 2007. The hearing is scheduled for tomorrow regarding Omar Minaya backing out on a 3-year $14.4million contract following the 2007 season. Torrealba claims "the Mets falsely created the impression that [he] was an injury risk."

Atkins Non-Tendered | FanGraphs Baseball - Dave Allen tries to analyze Atkins' decline. While acknowledging his numbers have dropped each year since 2006, he lumps 2006-08 and compares is BABIP to 2009. The result - his fly balls aren't turning into home runs or hits anymore, effectively meaning he has lost his ability to hit the ball hard.

Reward Retrospective: The 2007 National League MVP - Beyond the Box Score
A hot topic during the NLDS was Matt Holliday's loss to Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP. Should Rollins have won? No. But should Holliday have won? Turns out he wasn't even a clear choice for second (nointangiblesjuststatisticallyWARspeaking).

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

Browse more photos »

Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

Twitter Is Ridiculous Applesauce - Omar Meets The Agents, Juan Pierre Is Available And Nonsensical Rumors

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:05:48 -0000

It seems reporters/"journalists" are neglecting to consider source bias and failing to corroborate rumors with multiple sources before posting on Twitter or a blog. All in the name of page hitzzz I suppose.

Meet the Mets

Omar Minaya met with the agents for various players last night, including John Lackey, Jason Marquis, Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf.

In an interview with Daily 'Stache, Adam Rubin says the Mets should focus on pitching this offseason, namely Lackey. He also says Jeff Francoeur is the most reliable provider of good quotes.

Steve Henson says that 3-4 teams are interested in Dodgers OF Juan Pierre. A trade for Pierre would likely include a bad contract player, AKA Luis Castillo. No thanks on Pierre. Speaking of undesirable players, Jerry Crasnick reports that Elmer Dessens will likely re-sign with the Mets. If it's a major league deal you better get ready for Dessens Avenue.

Ken Davidoff tweets that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Mets radar. Interesting, considering the bizarre chain of events involving the Mets and Torrealba two offseasons ago.

Joel Sherman reports that a John Maine for Corey Hart trade is being discussed. Hart is just 27 years old and two years removed from a 4+ win season but I'd rather hold on to Maine. Will at BlueAndOrange agrees and thinks the deal is plausible, especially considering Omar Minaya's affinity for bad corner outfielders.

Mets Fever is also a fan of Adam Kennedy. If Castillo can be moved, Kennedy is the way to go.

LOL Rumors of the Day

Early yesterday it was reported that Pat Burrell had been traded to the Mets. This story was debunked almost immediately and the original story has been taken down from PhillyBlurbs, the website with the original report. Folks, cool it with your bogus anonymous sources, you're not providing a valuable service and it's annoying. No one is impressed.

Ed Price of Fanhouse tweeted the following yesterday:

Rumor that #Mets acquire Edwin Jackson

This was followed shortly by a clarification tweet from Price:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby.

Why not get confirmation before posting the rumor? Does "heard in the lobby" count as a reliable source nowadays?

Around MLB

The Nationals gave Pudge Rodriguez 2 years, $6 million for some reason.

Randy Wolf reportedly signed with the Brewers for 3 years and an unknown dollar amount.

Chuck Brownson at The Hardball Times discusses swaps for bad contracts, including Dontrelle Willis, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche and Kevin Millwood.

Tim Marchman thinks an intra-Chicago trade between the Cubs and White Sox involving Milton Bradley makes sense.

Matt Murton, a notorious ginger and player good enough to start on many major league teams, is going to play for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. I wonder if Murton realizes he's good enough for MLB.

Off topic link of the day: Tom Tango reviews the incredibly enjoyable movie Taken and heaps justifiable praise on Liam Neeson. I agree with him, Taken is fantastic.

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

Tuesday Rockpile: Arbitration offer deadline is today - Rockies to decide on Betancourt

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 14:08:19 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Arbitration: some people get it, and some people just don't.

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It is December 1, meaning today is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration, at least to qualify for draft pick compensation. Betancourt is likely the only Rockie to receive salary arbitration offer, writes Troy Renck, leaving Joe Beimel, Jason Marquis and Yorvit Torrealba free. Betancourt is a no-brainer. If he accepts arbitration, he'll make less than he would have made had the Rockies exercised his option, but if he declines and signs elsewhere, the Rockies will receive two high and shiny draft picks. Also, as WolfMarauder noted, Troy Renck also suggests the Rockies are interested in Fernando Tatis, Bobby Crosby, Rich Aurilia, Justin Duchsherer and Miguel Batista.

On a national scale, MLBTradeRumors has spent time inquiring the minds of beat writers everywhere to compile his Arbitration Offer Predictions For Free Agents.

Two highlights from FOX Sports Offseason Buzz: the Rockies will likely keep Ryan Spilborghs and the Diamondbacks are looking at improving via trade rather than free agency.

The Rockies received their postseason share (Renck). Their share of the player's pool totaled over $1.77mil. Just as the Rockies did with the family of Mike Coolbaugh, the Angels awarded a full share to the family of Nick Adenhart.

Samuel Deduno is a hot name on Rockies' farm (Harding). The 26-year old could be a strong dark horse to join the bullpen next season if the cards fall right.

Thomas Harding also writes that "about 200" broadcasters have applied for the job to replace Jeff Kingery in the radio booth. The club will decide sometime in "early 2010," which only tells us they are handing it out as a holiday gift.

Speaking of broadcasters, Chip Caray is out at TBS, a divorce reported as mutual. Hat tip to RhodeIslandRoxFan

It is certainly a bleak year for free agent pitching. The Hardball Times searched for someone to best compare top free agent John Lackey to, and you might like the comparison. Click under the fold to find out:

Clone Wars: John Lackey and Jason Hammel
That's right, Jason Hammel.

W ERA K BB WHIP K/9 BB/9 GB% HR/FB% FIP BABIP
John Lackey 11 3.83 139 47 1.27 7.09 2.40 44.9% 9.1% 3.73 0.309
Jason Hammel 10 4.33 133 42 1.39 6.78 2.14 46.2% 9.7% 3.71 0.337

Granted, the author isn't saying Hammel is as good of a bet to best Lackey next season, but for your value either in a fantasy draft pick or salary dollar, which pitcher would you rather have?

A Brief Rundown on Rays Rumors; Reid Brignac, Yorvit Torrealba, Carl Crawford, and Milton Bradley

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:29:20 -0000

Lazy morning, let's recap some rumors (rumors!) that were ignored because of the holiday weekend.

The Jays called about Reid Brignac

As have other teams, I'm sure. No use in speculating too much about what the Rays asked from the Jays in exchange, but realistically? Probably a package headed by Brandon League or Jason Frasor. These talks are reminiscent of the Julio Lugo talks way back which involved names like League and Ricky Romero amongst others. The differences are A) Brignac is younger with more service time and B) the Rays are the team dealing for immediate results. Of course the Jays turned around and signed Alex Gonzalez which would signal they're not interested - at the moment, at least - in continuing talks for the lefty.

The Rays have called Yorvit Torrealba

And most other catchers on the market, I'm sure. Torrealba has carved out a niche for himself over the last four seasons as a reserve catcher for the Rockies. He was paid nearly four million bucks last season and an inflated BABIP lead to his best offensive season in years. He generally throws out more than the 14% he did last season, so maybe the two extremes wash each other out. He doesn't have a platoon split and he actually hit for less power last season than any other season in his career. Nevertheless, odds are he's going to cost more than the Rays should pay for a back-up catcher.

Latest on Carl Crawford

My source says Crawford is interested in playing baseball in 2010 and beyond.

Latest on Milton Bradley

The Rays want the Cubs to pay for a lot of the contract, the Cubs would rather not yet want to move the pariah.

That about does it for now.

Wednesday's Late and Brief Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:15:03 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Justin Duchscherer is a potential 2010 Brewer. That means I probably need to learn to spell his name...or assign him a clever nickname that catches on. Suggestions?

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Some things to read while finding eternal life.

Thanks for bearing with me this week. The Mug will return to its normal format and schedule on Friday. In the meantime, here's the crash-course version of today's notes:

Adam McCalvy has two more names for you to consider as the Brewers head into hot stove season: Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Correia. Meanwhile, ESPN has a story about clinical depression that Duchscherer has battled in the past. I don't think the depression has anything to do with the fact that his name is impossible to spell.
Caitlin Moyer has a look at the offseason work of Brewer Grounds Crew leader Gary Vanden Berg, who recently finished putting Miller Park's field to bed for 2009.
Mike Cameron might be one of the best free agent position players on the market this offseason, but Bleed Cubbie Blue is comparing him to Marlon Byrd.
In the minors, Baseball America used Pitch F/x to gather average and max fastball speeds for pitchers that appeared in the Arizona Fall League. Zach Braddock, Mark Rogers, Josh Butler and Omar Aguilar all check in somewhere in the low-mid 90's.
In transactions: the Padres claimed starting pitcher Radhames Liz off waivers from the Orioles.
The White Sox signed Andruw Jones to a one year deal.
Shelley Duncan elected for free agency after the Yankees outrighted him off their 40-man roster.
I'm still hoping the Brewers will sign Yorvit Torrealba, but the Blue Jays are also rumored to have interest.
Today's Faces feature over at Lookout Landing features another former Brewer: Ben Ford.
Yesterday I mentioned a few of them, but Royals Review has a look at the five dumbest NL MVP votes.
Speaking of awards: on this day in 1969, Lou Piniella won the AL Rookie of the Year. Piniella started the season as a Seattle Pilot, but was traded on April 1 for pitcher John Gelnar and OF Steve Whitaker. Gelnar posted a 3.78 ERA over three seasons as a Pilot and Brewer. Whitaker spent one season with the Piolts and was done in the majors by 1971.
On this day in 1981, Rollie Fingers became the first relief pitcher ever to win the AL MVP. Fingers picked up 15 of the 28 first place votes and edged out Rickey Henderson by 11 points.
I wasn't able to find a Brewer birthday today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Tony Brewer, who turns 52.
Oh, and if you're looking for something to do tonight, Keith Law has updated his list of the top ten board games.

Drink up.

Jays to Sign John MacDonald?

Tom Dakers — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 03:14:03 -0000

MLB Trade Rumors have a couple of Jay rumors.

First they have a link to a Twitter from Ed Price of MLB Fanhouse saying the Jays are about to sign John McDonald for $1.5 million for the 2010 season. A move I really don't understand. As Trade Rumors points out his .258/.271/.384 line from last year includes career highs in slugging average and OPS. I guess if we aren't competing this season we might as well overpay for a defense only 35 year old SS. That's rebuilding for you. If you are looking for signs that we are tanking this season, that one is a 10 foot neon flashing sign.

Also Jordan Bastian has a piece up saying the Jays are going to make an offer to free agent catcher Yorvit Torrealba. Now that one I can understand a little better, he wouldn't be my first choice at catcher, but gets on base a better than Rod Barajas and is 3 years younger. I would rather them try to trade for Ryan Doumit but Torrealba isn't bad.

Jeff Blair from the Globe and Mail has tweeted (twitted? twonked? I'd learn the proper term if I cared at all) that a 'baseball guy' told him that there is a 90% chance that Lyle Overbay gets traded at the winter meetings. No suggestion to whom he'd be traded to or what we are looking to get back.