SB Nation - Brian Roberts

A Preliminary Look at the 2010 AL East Offenses - Part 1

Stacey — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:47:40 -0000

I miss him already. Get here soon, spring! (AP Photo/ Gail Burton)

I was fortunate enough to get a preview of Bill James' 2010 hitter and pitcher projections, which will be coming out as part of his handbook on November 1st. If you want to buy the handbook (which I wholly recommend), you can order it from the ACTA Sports webpage, or at Amazon.com or the like. The handbook includes a lot more than just the batter and pitcher projections; it's a real treasure. I haven't seen the 2010 version yet as it's not released but I've read past years' versions and they rock.

If you're unfamiliar with Bill James' player projections, he releases them every year for current players and prospects that could get playing time. They're all based on past performance and what James considers to be the natural extension of what they've already proven they can do. For the players with little or no major league experience, he doesn't attempt to make a determination on if they will play in 2010, just a determination of how they will do if the team brings them up. The example he uses in his introduction is actually regarding Josh Bell:

What we should do is try to answer this question: If this player plays, how will he play? If Joshua Bell opens the 2010 season as the Baltimore Orioles third baseman, what will he hit? That's the question we should be focused on. Whether Bell will or will not get a chance to play next season, when his chance might come. . .we don't have a fair chance to get that one right. Our job is to figure out how good he will be, when and if his ticket arrives.

I thought it'd be fun to do a little AL East comparison by position using the projections. For the most part they won't take into account any changes the Orioles or other AL East teams hope to make before the 2010 starts. It should give a pretty good indicator of the biggest areas of needs for the O's (not that we don't already know them, really) as well as where they actually match up well in the division.

This will be part one of the discussion, focusing on C, 1B, and 2B. Part two will cover SS, 3B, and DH, and part 3 will tackle the outfield.

Oh, and I said that for the most part I won't try to account for any changes, but I've taken a few liberties. One is to insert Josh Bell at 3B, even though I think we all know it's unlikely he'll start 2010 there. James' projections include Melvin Mora and Ty Wigginton, but there's no way I'm even considering Mora back at 3B, and I don't want to talk about Wiggy. I also made two other speculative changes that you'll see when the time comes. Suspense!!

See the good stuff below the jump.

Catcher

Shall we start with the best? Matt Wieters finished 2009 on a tear and looks poised to break out in 2010. And Bill James? Well he pretty much agrees (of course he thought that last year as well).

Matt Wieters	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	RC	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 Projections	118	416	127	22	21	72	64	81	67	56	.305	.402	.519	.921
Wieters '09 Stats	96	354	102	15	9	35	43	46.5	28	86	.288	.340	.412	.752
James '10 Projections	148	547	170	29	20	75	92	101	61	112	.311	.381	.484	.865

To be fair to James' '09 projections, pretty much every projection of Matt Wieters for 2009 was a little bit absurd. PECOTA practically inducted him into the HoF with its numbers. It was as though all of the statistically oriented minds were taken over by fanboys when it came to Matt Wieters in 2009. Of course his numbers would have been very difficult to predict given that he hadn't played beyond AA when the predictions were made, but still. The projections for 2010 are still pretty lofty but I think attainable by our golden boy. For reference, in the past ten seasons there have been 21 times when a catcher has had an OPS of .865 or greater. In 2009, only Joe Mauer had an OPS over .865. In fact, if Wieters had put up the 2010 projections this year, only Joe Mauer would have had better numbers than him at C, and Mauer had the most ridiculous year ever. And honestly, maybe it's just me, but I think the HR prediction might be a little low. Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled with 20. But I think he can do better.

Wieters easily has the best projections of any of the other catchers in the AL East, and I look forward to seeing just how much better he'll be in 2010.

James '10 Proj.	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	RC	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jorge Posada	116	420	116	26	18	59	74	72	60	104	.276	.372	.467	.839
Victor Martinez	150	560	167	36	19	78	97	97	67	74	.298	.377	.464	.841
Gregg Zaun	88	244	58	13	7	29	29	30	33	44	.238	.333	.377	.710
Rod Barajas	114	366	85	20	14	41	52	40	20	67	.232	.278	.402	.679

For the Rays, Dioner Navarro was actually projected for more playing time (110 games), but I just can't imagine the Rays using him as their everyday catcher. ZAUN is a lot older, but he's better. Rod Barajas...is not good, but the Jays don't really have anyone in the system to replace him right now. Posada is good, of course, but he'll be 38 in 2010. Eventually that has to start mattering for him. And Victor Martinez is a huge upgrade over Jason Varitek, sadly. If these four plus Wieters are the 5 starting catchers in the AL East in 2010, Wieters, at age 24, will not only be the best catcher in the division, he'll also be the only one under age 30. Verdict: WIETERS!

First Base

After the euphoria of the Orioles catching situation, here's the cold reality: The Orioles need a first baseman, and bad. In-house the Orioles have a few options. Luke Scott proved an adequate fielder in the short time he spent there in 2009 but his Jekyll and Hyde act at the plate gets tiresome. Michael Aubrey is great with the glove and while his bat showed some promise, my personal opinion is that he's our new Oscar Salazar: useful, but not an answer. Down in the minors Brandon Snyder is hoping to win the job and I'd have to think it's on the mind of Rhyne Hughes as well. I'd like nothing more than for Brandon Snyder to step up and earn the job, but even if he does that I don't believe it will be out of spring training. So for the meantime I have to think they'll go with Luke Scott at 1B for 2010, at least until another solution is found.

Luke Scott	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	RC	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 Projections	142	476	130	31	25	69	79	75.9	57	98	.273	.354	.508	.862
Scott '09 Stats	128	449	116	26	25	61	77	71.6	55	104	.258	.340	.488	.828
James '10 Projections	142	463	120	29	24	64	76	76	56	109	.259	.342	.486	.828

So James expects Luke to basically have the same exact year that he did in 2009. Fair enough. Luke is pretty much at the stage of his career where he is who he is. And honestly, if he could come by those numbers in a more even fashion I'd be happy with them. But he's hard to rely on when he hits like Babe Ruth for two months and Brandon Fahey for two months. I'm not totally unhappy with Luke playing 1B for the O's in 2010 as long as he's not looked at as any kind of permanent solution.

James '10 Proj.	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	RC	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mark Teixeira	156	596	179	42	36	191	121	129	84	113	.300	.395	.559	.953
Kevin Youkilis	149	557	161	42	23	98	95	105	85	128	.289	.394	.492	.885
Carlos Pena	148	530	127	27	36	88	99	93	93	176	.240	.360	.498	.858
Lyle Overbay	140	460	123	34	15	60	63	73	65	100	.267	.359	.443	.803

Ah, Carlos Pena. I often think of that commenter here by the name of Wade Boggs Hair who loved Carlos Pena. You guys remember him? He was the president of the Carlos Pena fan club before Pena signed with the Rays. After we later learned that Pena almost came to the Orioles and they couldn't work out a deal (what could he have been asking for, really, the the O's wouldn't give him but the Rays would??), it was a major bummer. If only it had worked out. sigh. VERDICT: At least it's not Kevin Millar

Second Base

The Orioles stalwart. The veteran. With Melvin Mora out of the picture, Brian Roberts takes his place as the longest tenured Oriole, and the only one to have been with the team prior to 2006. With all of the changes to the Orioles in the past few years, Brian remains our comfort. 2010 will be Brian's 10th in the majors, all of which have been losers. When the Orioles finally rid themselves of their losing ways Brian Roberts probably won't know what to do with himself. Actually there is no doubt in my mind that when the time comes for this team to be in a pennant race, old man Brian Roberts will be leading the charge and playing like we've never seen him. Here are Brian's numbers:

Brian Roberts	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	SB/CS	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 Projections	156	623	176	44	10	100	58	36/12	79	99	.283	.364	.414	.778
Roberts '09 stats	159	632	179	56	16	110	79	30/7	74	112	.283	.356	.451	.807
James '10 projections	159	630	177	47	12	103	65	30/10	78	108	.281	.361	.422	.783

Roberts is steady in his production. James always pegs Brian to have less power than he does. I'm not sure why since he's had an SLG less than .432 once since 2005, and that was in 2006 when he was returning from that awful arm injury. He slugged right around .450 in both 2008 and 2009 but James continues to project him low. I feel like we always know what we're going to get from Brian, and it's nice to have one less thing to worry about. He's one of the leading 2B in the American League, although unfortunately you could also say that about several 2Bs in the AL East.

James '10 Proj.	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	SB/CS	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Robinson Cano	161	624	193	46	20	89	87	4/3	32	69	.309	.347	.489	.836
Dustin Pedroia	156	623	191	50	15	109	75	16/6	66	43	.307	.378	.465	.843
Ben Zobrist	153	509	143	28	23	86	75	15/6	84	93	.281	.385	.491	.876
Aaron Hill	138	540	153	35	20	78	76	5/2	40	78	.283	.337	.463	.800

I'll be honest, the Rays roster confuses the hell out of me. 2009 started with Akinori Iwamura as the starting 2B with Ben Zobrist playing RF/UTIL/Bench. Aki went down with an injury and Zobrist took over 2B pretty much full time and ended up having just a monster year. With Zobrist at 2B the RF duties were left to the Gabe of the Day platoon, neither of which were anything special. Initially I imagined that Iwamura would return to 2B in 2010 with Zobrist going back to RF. I did some snooping around on DRaysBay though and they seem to be of the consensus that Aki's option won't be picked up and Zobrist will return to 2B.

Anyway, the projections have every other AL East 2B as having a better year than Brian Roberts, pretty much. I'm not sure I buy that, especially for Zobrist and Hill. Zobrist will be 29 in 2010 and just played his first full season in the majors. Even though the James projection predicts he'll have a regression, the numbers are still high enough to give me pause. He could be a late bloomer, I suppose, but there just isn't enough evidence to give me much confidence in him. And don't even get me started on Aaron Hill. If he has an OPS of .800 or more in 2010 I'll eat my shoe.

You know what bugs me about Dustin Pedroia? The way everyone acts like, "Look at this little dude coming along and showing everyone what he can do!" Please. Brian Roberts was doing that for years before Pedroia came along, although with hardly any attention.

Don't get me wrong. I know that Pedroia is a more valuable player than Brian Roberts. Most of the value is in his age (he's also, by all accounts, NOT a lollygagger). He puts up slightly better numbers than Roberts, but five years earlier in his career. That's a pretty big deal, especially since it's how he started his career. But it doesn't explain why Pedroia is so much more revered when looked at in a single season scope. Behold the numbers:

2007	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	H	2B	HR	SB/CS
Roberts	.290	.377	.432	.808	112	180	42	12	50/7
Pedroia	.317	.380	.442	.823	112	165	39	8	7/1

2008	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	H	2B	HR	SB/CS
Roberts	.296	.378	.450	.828	117	181	51	9	40/10
Pedroia	.326	.376	.493	.869	122	213	54	17	20/1

2009	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	H	2B	HR	SB/CS
Roberts	.283	.356	.451	.807	108	179	56	16	30/7
Pedroia	.296	.371	.445	.819	108	185	48	15	20/8

I was sure to include the OPS+ in there, since they're identical in 2007 and 2009. It's easier to hit in Fenway Park? You don't say! Yeah, Pedroia gets more hits than Roberts, but check out the OBP. Pretty close. Add in Brian's base stealing prowess and the margin tightens even more. Like I said, if I'm looking for a guy on my team for the next 10 years, yeah, I go with Pedroia (or Cano for that matter, who I've completely ignored). But for 2010? Brian Roberts suits me just fine. VERDICT: He's not the flashiest, but I stand by Brian Bob. (oh, and Dustin Pedroia? Brian's 2005 season laughs in the face of your 2008 MVP season)

With three positions down, I'd say the O's look pretty good comparatively. They just gotta find a legit 1B. They really haven't had one since Palmeiro's first tour (no offense Jeff Conine!),

Next up will be a look at Shortstop, Third Base, and Designated Hitter (warning, this one is a lot uglier).

Tuesday Rockpile: Has Dan O'Dowd forged MLB's best small market model?

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:25:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

We are told Hawpe isn't going anywhere. Should we be surprised? "Dealin" Dan O'Dowd doesn't like dealin' his homegrown talent very much

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Locking down leading men

Yesterday, Patrick Saunders suggested the Rockies would ink GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy to multi-year deals this week. This morning, the Denver Post strengthened their wording on the issue a bit. Now, a "major league source close to the situation" said the Rockies will sign both leading men to long-term deals, per Saunders and Troy Renck. Okay so that's not a shocker. They do mention the entirety of the MLB coaching staff will return in their current roles, again not surprising after the best regular season in franchise history.

But oh yeah - Tracy Ringolsby already reported that Sunday night.

Dan O'Clown or Bozo Beane?

There's room to argue the sense in giving an MLB contract, but there can be no legitimate beef with Dan O'Dowd. At the time of the Holliday trade in November, some exhibited worry that O'Dowd was playing with fire (Beane) and would likely get burned (Encarnacion/Ortiz/Belitz). It looks like Beane ought to be worried about O'Dowd now.

To further illustrate this point, I'll point you to Fangraphs, where RJ Anderson writes of the Problem with Oakland. Quite frankly, the Athletics just haven't drafted well, and their top prospects haven't panned out since Moneyball. Anderson identified the Rays and Rockies as two teams taking the torch in the small-market-internal-development game, so he compared the three clubs' top 10 prospects (from Baseball America) from 2004-07:

"The Rockies have an extraordinarily high retention rate* of 72.5% while the Rays/A's are equal with 42.5%."

*Retention rate is defined as percentage of prospects still within the organization at the start of 2009.

Moreover, all ten of the Rockies' top ten prospects from 2007 were within the organization this past March, while Oakland and Tampa only had five. That could be part of why the Rockies have two playoff appearances since 2007 to Tampa and Oakland's combined one...

Now time for commentary: Jason Hirsh and Jeff Baker were traded for scraps this season and no one is calling Dan O'Dowd late at night in hopes a brandy-filled evening will allow him to loosen his grip on Greg Reynolds or Chaz Roe. Those four represent an issue with representing small market success by retention rate. Retaining dud or uninspiring prospects isn't really worth rewarding. The Rays lost their top prospect from 2005-2007, but flipping him for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett was unquestionably the right move. Then again, after a decade drafting in the top five, they had the best prospects at their disposal for a long time, and the Rockies were drafting higher than Oakland in the time frame.

So what does this all tell us? The Rockies indeed develop players well, though mostly, it tells us Dan O'Dowd likes holding onto his prospects. That's all. The only top prospects from those four years that were traded prior to 2009 were Matt Holliday and Ryan Shealy (unanimously good trades). It tells us the Rockies seem to hold more firm to the developmental segment of the organization than their peers, which is partly why we fans latch onto our players so much. It also tells me that Dan O'Dowd would really have to break the mold to bring in a Brian Roberts.

Last cold links

Rox look to build on strong second half | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Thomas Harding breaks down the roster position-by-position. Included is the contract issues to keep an eye on. It's a good reference point if you haven't been reading the Row every day.

Mopping Up in 2009 | FanGraphs Baseball
Josh Fogg was mop up man in 2009 - his "MOP score" placed him second in MLB behind Luis Perdomo, who allowed Clint Barmes' inside-the-park home run last month.

2009-10 Do-It-Yourself Offseason Trade/Free Agent Post

Al — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:01:23 -0000

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

Some guy named Brian Roberts. Ever heard of him? Me, either.

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This morning, wrote that the Cubs are interested in acquiring . Cubs GM Jim Hendry . Meanwhile, Hendry said that Milton Bradley would be traded to the . Hendry also said that Rich Harden , and that Carlos Zambrano . Former Cub Mark DeRosa while Bradley was offered to the . The Cubs tried to get the to take Aaron Miles' contract, but they refused because . In the upcoming Rule 5 draft, the Cubs are going to select . The Cubs' plans for Sam Fuld in 2010 include Brian Roberts was located and had this comment on his possible trade to the Cubs: Finally, manager Lou Piniella's comments about the rumors included:

Midday quick hits: Cubs, Derek Lowe, Giants, Twins vs. Tigers

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:09:59 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

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Here are some links making the headlines on this Tuesday afternoon:

The Cubs have some issues they plan to address early this offseason, which start with moving Milton Bradley. The Cubs may look to swap bad contracts, but could look into trading for Jeremy Hermida, who the Marlins plan to shop. After that, the Cubs may dangle Jake Fox on the open market. Fox dominated Triple-A hitters and put up impressive numbers with the big league club. He could draw interest from an AL team looking for a cheap DH option. The Mariners come to mind, and the Orioles could emerge if they fail to find a replacement at third base.
Speaking of the Orioles hot corner, MASN suggests that the Orioles could make a strong push to land infielder Chone Figgins. Figgins would give the Orioles even more speed at the top of the order, while also giving them a legitimate run producer. They would have to overpay to lure him to Baltimore, but he could have an impact on Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters.
The Braves plan to shop Derek Lowe this offseason, who regressed this season in his first year with the Braves. His sinker wasn't as deceptive, which hurt the effectiveness of his other pitches. He has three years and 45 million dollars left on his contract, so finding a taker may be difficult. The Braves could look to swap bad contracts, contact the Tigers about Magglio Ordonez or even the White Sox about Alex Rios.
The Giants would not go as far to rule out trading Matt Cain, but at the moment appear reluctant to make a move. The Brewers' Prince Fielder has been talked about before, and it is possible they could explore that avenue again this offseason.
Who is going to win the Twins vs. Tigers one game playoff tonight? Focus in Detroit has been shifted to Miguel Cabrera's off the field incidents, which could have an impact on tonight's game. Playing at home, riding a lot of momentum, and following an impressive Vikings win on national television, it seems like the Twins have the advantage. What do you think?

Orioles 5, Blue Jays 4: SWEEEEEP

Camden Chat — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:39:23 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

about 1 month ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Brandon League reacts after making his second throwing error in the 11th inning of a baseball game allowing Baltimore Orioles Michael Aubrey, pictured at right, to score the winning run Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Baltimore. The Orioles won 5-4. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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The Orioles ended the season on a high note as they swept the Blue Jays for their fourth win in a row. It took 11 innings and a few errors by the Blue Jays, but they got it done. When I said prior to the first game that I wanted a sweep I didn't actually think it would happen, but I'm glad they listened.

Jeremy Guthrie had a personal goal this year of reaching 200 innings pitched, and going into today's game he was at 192.1. He ended up pitching 7.2 innings to give him 200 innings on the nose. He didn't pitch horribly, but he did do what we all expect him to: give up home runs. Three of them, to be exact. Overall he allowed 4 runs on 9 hits. I have high hopes that Guthrie will be able to bounce back in 2010. I don't have anything on which to base that, but I have those hopes all the same.

Nick Markakis had a good final game, collecting 2 hits to make his total on the year 188, the most on the team in 2009. With Brian Roberts on 2nd base in the first inning, Nick hit his 18th home run to give the O's a 2-1 lead. Guthrie gave back that lead with single runs in the 4th and 5th innings. In the bottom of the 6th inning the Orioles loaded the bases with zero outs but after a Matt Wieters ground out and a Markakis strike out it looked like they might waste their opportunity. With two outs Dave Trembley sent Justin Turner in to pinch hit for Melvein Mora. It seemed strange to pull Mora on his last game as an Oriole, but Melvin didn't seem upset at all. He was grinning on the bench receiving congratulations from his teammates, and it turned out to be a good move. Turner lined the first pitch he saw right up the middle to score Roberts and Andino and give the O's a 4-3 lead.

Between innings the fans gave Melvin Mora a standing ovation in appreciation of his years of service to the Orioles. I didn't see the entire game as I mostly checked in during commercials during the Ravens game. I did happen to see the ovation as well as Melvin's teammates giving him hugs and handshakes, and I admit I got a little emotional.

Just after all that, however, Guthrie unfortunately gave up the lead in the top of the 7th inning with another home run. After light hitting John McDonald hit his 4th HR of the year (and 2nd against the Orioles), the score remained tied at 4-4 until the bottom of the 11th, when the O's walked off with a little help from Toronto's pitcher Brandon League.

Michael Aubrey led off the 11th inning with a single, and Lou Montanez followed with a very good bunt up the first base line. League fielded with plenty of time to get Montanez, but threw the ball away. With runners on first and second with on zero outs, Jeff Fiorentino bunted in an attempt to get the winning run to third. Again League fielded, and AGAIN he made a throwing error. Michael Aubrey raced home to score the winning run and end the Orioles season.

-Stacey

Poll

For the final time, who was today's Most Birdland Player?

Nick Markakis (2 run HR)

68 votes

Brian Roberts (2 hits, 2 walks, 2 runs, 1 stolen base)

63 votes

Justin Turner (pinch hit 2 RBI single to give the O's the temporary lead)

35 votes

Jeff Fiorentino (sac bunt that lead to the winning run)

7 votes

173 votes | Poll has closed

Matt Kemp Is Smarter Than You Think

Eric Stephen — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:00:30 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Plays like this anger Paul Oberjuerge

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Matt Kemp has been the Dodgers' best player this season. A hitter with power, who hits for average too, while playing a mean center field. He is hitting .301/.356/.499 with 26 home runs, 34 steals, 100 runs batted in, and 96 runs scored. He leads the club in Wins Above Replacement, with 5.4, according to our friends at the fine website, Fangraphs. He leads all centerfielders with 13 assists.

I believe Kemp is easily the Dodgers' most valuable player this season, but I'm willing to entertain other arguments. Andre Ethier has been amazingly clutch with his six walk-off hits, and I can understand if his poor rating in ultimate zone rating is viewed with skepticism. Randy Wolf has been the horse of the rotation, Clayton Kershaw leads the club in ERA, and Jonathan Broxton has been dominant as a closer this season.

If anyone wants to put forth an argument that one of those players has been better than Matt Kemp in 2009, I won't agree with them, but I'm willing to listen to a compelling argument. However, I implore you, please don't resort to writing drivel like this, from Paul Oberjuerge:

Matt Kemp is the Biggest Dodger Dolt

Okay. Right off the bat, we see where Oberjuerge, who "spent nearly 31 years as a sports editor, sports columnist and metro columnist for Gannett and MediaNews while based in Southern California," according to his website, is coming from. This is not going to be a "nice" column. Oberjuerge continues:

Is there a dumber guy in baseball than Matt Kemp? Not talking real-world IQ (but maybe we could), but "dumb plays involving a guy who no longer is a kid." Baseball IQ, that is.

And on that scale, is anyone dumber than Matt Kemp?

Did Kemp run over Oberjuerge's dog or something? There seems to be a lot of vitriol spewing from him so far. Who knows? Maybe Kemp thought Christine Daniels was attractive, and was offended by Oberjuerge's blog post from two years ago.

Oberjuerge goes on, outlining why he thinks Kemp is dumb:

Search your mind, for a moment, and consider how many times you have seen Matt Kemp thrown out on the bases. Yeah. A lot. Not as often as you’ve seen Juan Pierre ground out weakly to second (that’s a number in the hundreds), but a lot. Somebody somewhere must have that stat, Matt Kemp outs-made on basepaths …. and I will bet you $5 that (subtracting caught-stealing) no one in baseball has been tagged out on the bases more often than Matt Kemp.

Kemp, including today, has made seven outs on the bases this season. Plus, he has been picked off six times as well. That is 13 total outs on the bases. There are 10 players in baseball who have made more outs than that, plus six more that have made as many outs:

Player	PO	OOB	Total Outs
Chone Figgins	11	11	22
Carl Crawford	7	12	19
Denard Span	9	10	19
Dexter Fowler	6	10	16
B.J. Upton	10	6	16
Scott Podsednik	11	5	16
Nyjer Morgan	9	7	16
Jacoby Ellsbury	7	7	14
Brian Roberts	5	9	14
Yadier Molina	3	11	14
Pablo Sandoval	1	12	13
Adam Kennedy	2	11	13
Elvis Andrus	3	10	13
Michael Cuddyer	3	10	13
Alex Rodriguez	3	10	13
Matt Kemp	6	7	13
Juan Pierre	6	7	13

Mr. Oberjuerge, you owe me $5. He continues his Bison hate-fest:

Matt Kemp tries to take extra bases all the time. And often doesn’t make it. He gets doubled off a base. He strays too far off the bag and gets picked off. He’s just a disaster out there. And this has to do with a really low baseball IQ.

The amazing Baseball-Reference.com tracks just about everything, including percentage of extra bases taken. They define XBT% as "percentage of times the runner advanced more than one base on a single, or more than two bases on a double, when possible." Matt Kemp has taken the extra base 52% of the time. The league average is 39%. Kemp comes out ahead of the curve here.

Bill James Online tracks base running, both while stealing bases and running the bases. In just base running gain, Chone Figgins leads MLB with a +30, meaning he has gained 30 more bases than an average player just while running the bases. The top ten in base running gain include players at +19 and above. Kemp is at +18, meaning he has gained 18 bases more than the average player just while running the bases (not while stealing). Does someone in the top 11 or so in this category seem like a dumb base runner to you?

Oberjuerge rambles on, and even blames Monday's 11-1 loss on Kemp's baserunning error. He also adds this finishing nugget:

I’ve been thinking about this for some time, while watching Matt Kemp play. And marveling at what a complete dope he is.

That's funny, because I've been thinking of how great it is to have one of the very best players in baseball playing for the Dodgers. While I and other Dodger fans enjoy the exploits of The Bison, let the ill-informed continue to hate the Dodgers' best player.

After all, ignorance is bliss.

Sending A Shark After The Sweep: Cubs vs. Brewers Preview, Wednesday 9/23, 7:05 CT

Al — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Write your own caption.

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Over the last few days, I have posted a few "write your own caption" photos, and no one's really contributed one, due, I suppose, to being focused on other issues.

However, I think today's photo should result in quite a few good caption ideas. Fire away! I will choose what I think is the best one and send the poster a copy of the DVD "Chasing October". (Which, unfortunately, we are still doing.)

A few other baseball notes while we get ready for an attempt at the second Cubs series sweep this month (and both on the road, too):

Our old pal Brian Roberts -- remember him? -- needs five more doubles to have 60 this year. That's a milestone that has been reached only six times in baseball history and not since 1936, when the Tigers' Charlie Gehringer had 60 and the Cardinals' Joe Medwick had 64. The closest anyone has come since then was Todd Helton's 59 in 2000.
Attendance for many teams is down in the recession, so teams selling playoff tickets are pricing some of them at bargain levels.
Tiger Stadium is completely gone. Sad that they couldn't have found a way to preserve at least a small part of it.
I found Flip Flop Flyball via Rob Neyer's Sweet Spot (great stuff, Rob, and yes, I know, I found all the other links today at your blog, too). The Flip Flop Flyball guy makes cool and interesting charts and graphs -- here's one that's timely.

Lineup via Twittermyer:

Theriot, ss; Colvin, cf; Lee, 1b; Ramirez, 3b; Fox, lf; Baker, 2b; Johnson, rf; Soto, c; Samardzija, p

Today's Starting Pitchers


Jeff Samardzija Cubs	vs.	Chris Narveson Brewers

1-2	W-L	1-0
7.89	ERA	4.22
18	SO	27
14	BB	12
5	HR	6
vs. Mil	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Samardzija	1-2	19	1	0	0	0	0	29.2	41	26	26	5	14	18	7.89	1.85

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Chris Narveson	1-0	18	2	0	0	0	0	32.0	33	15	15	6	12	27	4.22	1.41

Jeff Samardzija is making his second major league start. The first one wasn't very good. Let's hope for improvement -- I really would like to see the Shark pitch well so he has a shot at the 2010 staff. He has never faced the Brewers.

Chris Narveson is the very definition of a journeyman. Originally drafted by the Cardinals in the 2nd round in 2000, he was traded to the Rockies in 2004 as part of the deal that brought Larry Walker to St. Louis. Then Colorado sent him to Boston for Byung-Hyun Kim. He was later waived by the Red Sox, claimed by the Cardinals who then let him go as a six-year free agent; the Brewers signed him before the 2008 season. In his minor league career he played for: Johnson City, Peoria (when it was a Cardinals affiliate), Potomac, Johnson City again, Peoria again, Palm Beach, Tennessee, Tulsa, Pawtucket, Memphis, Palm Beach again, Memphis again, Palm Beach and Memphis for a third time, and Nashville. Just think of the frequent-flyer (or maybe it's frequent-bus) miles. He has never started against the Cubs, but threw one inning of relief in each of three games at Wrigley Field in July, allowing a total of four hits and a run. Mike Fontenot was 2-for-3 against him with a double.

Today's game is again cable-only; CSN Chicago and FSN Wisconsin. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Brewers site Brew Crew Ball.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Dodgers Head East To Begin Feast

Eric Stephen — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 20:00:38 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

Matt Kemp returns to where it all began tonight.

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The Dodgers start their nine-game road trip with a series against a team that seems likely to get the number one pick in the draft for the second year in a row (2010: The Bryce Harper Sweepstakes). The Nationals own baseball's worst record at 51-98, and the only team close to them -- the Pirates -- just happen to be next on the schedule for the Dodgers.

However, the Dodgers own a 4-8 all-time record in Washington DC, and were swept here just last season. The Nationals' sweep last August extended the Dodger losing streak to seven games, a streak that would reach eight in Arizona before the Dodgers turned it around and won the division.

Washington DC also happens to be the site of the debut of one Matt Kemp. On May 28, 2006, The Bison struck out in his first three at-bats, but got his first major league hit with an eighth-inning single off Jon Rauch. However, in three games since in our nation's capital, Kemp is hitless in 14 at-bats.

In need of a hit? Enter Livan Hernandez, who has allowed 197 hits in 167.1 innings this season. Hernandez has allowed 10.6 hits per nine innings this season, the seventh time in his career Hernandez has allowed double digit hits per nine innings. Hernandez has already faced the Dodgers twice this season, when he was a Met. He pitched one good game, and one bad game, but the Dodgers won both anyway.

Hiroki Kuroda will pitch for the Dodgers, in his 50th major league start. Kuroda has won his last two starts, allowing a total of three runs in 14 innings. He has not issued a walk in his last 16 innings, and he has allowed no walks in eight of 18 starts this season.

Since the All-Star break, Andre Ethier ranks seventh in baseball with a 1.014 OPS. Since then, Ethier is hitting .328/.405/.609, with 39 runs scored, 13 home runs, and 45 runs batted in over 62 games. Ethier's 24 doubles since the All-Star break are the third-most in baseball, one behind both Brian Roberts and Daniel Murphy.

The Dodgers have homered in a season-high 10 straight games, with 17 home runs during that span.

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies.

Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.

Game Time: 4:05pm

TV: KCAL

Baseball Reference Preview

Orioles 10, Rays 5: Bow to Wieters

Stacey — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 03:23:05 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

about 1 month ago: Baltimore Orioles' Matt Wieters, right, is congratulated by Nick Markakis, center, and Robert Andino after hitting a three-run home run against the Tampa Bay Rays in the eighth inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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Oh man. What a fun, fun game. Good pitching, mammoth home runs, and a comeback win. I did have some issues with Dave Trembley's management of the pitching staff, and I still do if I stop to think about it, but my mind was pretty much wiped clean on Matt Wieters' home run and now I'm in Oriole heaven for at least one day.

I feel like I say this a lot about our young starting pitchers, but Jason Berken pitched so well other than one inning tonight. Unfortunately, that inning was the first. Before the fans could even get settled into their seats, Berken was in trouble. Singles by Jason Bartlett and Evan Longoria put runners on the corners with one out for Ben Zobrist. Zobrist doubled in Bartlett and kept two on base for Pat Burell who hit a 3 run HR. Just like that the O's were down 4-0. Berken retired Aybar and Upton to end the first, and for the rest of the game looked good.

The Rays scored their 5th run in the 3rd inning on two hits, but Berken retired the Rays in order in the 2nd, 4th and 5th innings (with Felix Pie making a great catch to end the 5th). Zobrist started the top of the 6th with a single but was eliminated on a double play and Berken again faced just three batters. Despite a four run first inning, Berken finished the 6th with just 77 pitches. He was rolling out there, he looked great, it was awesome. In the 7th inning Berken got Upton to ground out for the first out before walking Dioner Navarro. It was his first walk of the night and he was only at 83 pitches, but Trembley pulled him. If you want to know my heat of the moment reaction, check out the game thread. I railed about it for awhile. Berken was pitching better than I've seen him the entire year but rather than give him a chance to get out of it, Trembley pulled him at the first sign of trouble. It was so disheartening. I subsequently got over it thanks to the Orioles offense, but thinking back on it I'm still pretty salty.

Speaking of the O's offense, what a night. They were down 5-0 after 2.5 innings and facing a very good Rays pitcher in Jeff Niemann, but they didn't let it get them down and they didn't waste any time. In the bottom of the 3rd inning, Jeff Fiorentino and Felix Pie hit back-to-back singles in front of Brian Roberts. Brian, who was on fire in this game, hit his 52nd double of the year, scoring Fio and putting runners on 2nd and 3rd. With that double Brian broke his own record for most doubles in a season by an Oriole. So now, just like Derek Jeter, he'll make history every time he does it again! Nick Markakis has been struggling, but he managed an RBI groundout to make it 5-2.

The O's would come back in the 4th with another run. Matt Wieters got on base via a double (I know, right?) and scored when Cesar Izturis got his first hit of the night. In the 5th, Roberts led off the inning with a walk and after singles by Melvin Mora and Markakis, the bases were loaded for Matt Wieters. Wieters singled up the middle and Roberts and Mora came home, putting the O's up 6-5. This team doesn't quit.

Luke Scott got in on the action in the 7th inning with a vintage LUUUKE home run to the Eutaw Street bleachers. That pushed the O's lead to two, but if you know the Orioles bullpen the way that I know that you do, two runs isn't enough to feel at all comfortable. Luckily, the O's weren't finished. In the 8th inning Brian Roberts singled for his third hit of the game, but was erased on a Markakis fielder's choice. With Nick on second and two outs, Luke Scott took a walk and Matt Wieters stepped to the plate. He launched an absolutely gorgeous home run onto the flag court to give the Orioles a 10-5 lead. It was the 6th home run of the year for Wieters and the first one he has pulled. His power is mighty.

After Berken was removed from the game with one out in the 7th, Alberto Castillo and Chris Ray faced one batter each to finish the inning. Danys Baez pitched a very good 8th inning, but Jim Johnson continued with his recent troubles. He allowed a leadoff single to Aybar but was saved when Izturis made a great stop to start a double play. JJ then walked Dioner Navarro of all people, but got it together enough to induce Gabe Gross to ground out to Roberts to end the game. All's well that ends well, but JJ did not look good.

You can put this one in the win column as the Orioles continue to play hard in September. Jason Berken outlasted Rookie of the Year candidate Jeff Niemann for the win and looked good doing it. Tomorrow at 7:05 is game three of the four game series, Chris Tillman vs. Andy Sonnanstine.

Poll

Who was tonight's Most Birdland Player (MBP)?

Matt Wieters (3-4, 2B, 3 R HR, 2 R, 5 RBI)

178 votes

Brian Roberts (3-4, 52nd double of the year to break his own record)

7 votes

Jason Berken (recovered from a bad inning, allowing just 3 hits in innings 2-6, gave the O's a chance to comeback)

11 votes

Cesar Izturis (3 hits, RBI, web gem in the 9th inning)

1 votes

Luke Scott (double, HR, BB, 2 RBI, R)

2 votes

199 votes | Poll has closed

Orioles 7, Yankees 3: Brian Matusz makes us happy

Camden Chat — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 20:32:20 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

Brian Matusz made Derek Jeter so mad he almost said a bad word to the umpire. Siddown, Jetes. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Last June, according to the story told by Gary Thorne on today's telecast, Brian Matusz had just signed with the Baltimore Orioles. He was in New York for the draft, and saw the new Yankee Stadium being constructed. He said to himself, "I'm going to pitch there someday." He had yet to throw his first professional pitch.

Fast forward 15 months. Brian Matusz got his wish, or, more accurately, earned his destiny and took the mound at the new Yankee Stadium today against the New York Yankees. He entered the day having won his last two outings, and having gone 7.0 IP in both. He'd given up just 5 ER in those 14 innings, and O's fan might have been cautiously optimistic about today's game.

Throw caution to the wind, people - Brian Matusz will be winning a lot more games in Yankee Stadium over the next six years.

Matusz went 7.0 IP again today, and aside from a SAC fly in the 1st inning, didn't allow a run in his last six innings of work. Sure, he had his troubles, but not many. There was a 20-pitch inning, and the Yankees sent five men to the plate in the 7th. That was the most he faced all day - five batters in an inning. It's great to win. But to face just three or four batters an inning, almost every inning? And by a rookie? Against a team that's up by eight games in the AL East? I'll take it.

The offense did its best, for one inning, to make this an easy day for Matusz. In the second inning, AL ROY candidate Nolan Reimold led off with a home run to left-center, Matt Wieters walked after Luke Scott looked terrible, again, and Ty Wigginton singled Wieters to second base. Michael Aubrey singled the two runners over, and Robert Andino singled Wieters in.

Then Brian Roberts came up. Then the ball went out, over the wall in right-center. Pretty quickly, too.

The grand slam by Roberts, his 15th HR of the season, made the game a 6-1 lead for the Orioles, and the way Matusz was pitching, you could almost feel comfortable. Next year, when he's allowed to complete games, a 6-1 lead may be as automatic a win as you can earn in the majors. But, for now, we're at the mercy of Diamond Dave's decisions with the bullpen.

The sight of Chris Ray warming up in the 7th inning was not needed. Really, Dave, really? Chris Ray? In New York? You do remember what happens when Chris Ray pitches in New York, right? Instead, sanity prevailed, Matusz was allowed to finish the 7th, and Danys Baez came in to pitch the 8th, and did so in a completely professional and non-exciting manner. Thank you, Danys. Jim Johnson finished the game. That's all I'm saying about Jim Johnson today. I will not spoil the good mood.

The Orioles go for the improbable series sweep tomorrow, and here's hoping the O's close them out. -duck

Poll

Who was the Most Birdland Player for Sept. 12, 2009?

Brian Matusz (W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 K, 2 BB)

158 votes

Nolan Reimold (2-3, HR, RB, amazing first-row catch of foul ball)

6 votes

Brian Roberts (3-4, Grand Slam, 4 RBI, 1 R, and, oh yeah, a GRAND SLAM. Plus a walk.)

62 votes

Danys Baez (1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1K, not being Chris Ray while in New York)

0 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed