SB Nation - Danys Baez

The End of the Bad Contracts - Pitching Edition

Stacey — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 03:12:10 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Your time is almost up, Danys. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

With just a few days left in the 2009 season, the Orioles are on the cusp of being out from under a number of contracts, notably those of the pitchers Danys Baez and Jamie Walker, two of the more ill advised contracts in recent Oriole history. Between the two of them they made $11.67M in 2009, which is over 17% of the total payroll and more than Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, Felix Pie, Adam Jones, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Luke Scott, Cesar Izturis, and Nick Markakis made combined (I know, I know, most of those guys haven't been free agents, but still, on talent vs. value that's just criminal).

Just after the 2006 season, a time that feels like an eternity ago, Mike Flanagan and Jim Duquette attempted to shore up a miserable Orioles bullpen by throwing millions of dollars at Chad Bradford, Danys Baez, and Jamie Walker. For the three relief pitchers the Orioles committed over $40M over 3 years, an investment upon which they wouldn't even come close to breaking even.

Jamie Walker: $12M. Chad Bradford: $10.5M. Danys Baez: $19M. Do you know how many relief pitchers are worth $19M over three years? Not many. With the exception of premiere pitchers like Mariano Rivera, relief pitchers are too volatile, too susceptible to injury, to sustain that type of value.

Orioles fans can say with certainty that these contracts were a bad idea. We watched the games, after all. We cringed every time Walker came in to face Carlos Pena or David Ortiz. We watched Baez walk God and country and follow it up with a home run to blow the save more than a few times. If you look at the numbers, it just gets worse. Per FanGraphs, here are the values of the Orioles three bullpen investments over the duration of their contracts:

Name/year	WAR	Value	Salary
Baez '07	-0.8	($3.1)	$5.7
Baez '08	N/A	N/A	$6.2
Baez '09	0.2	$0.8	$7.2
Bradford '07	1.3	$5.4	$3.2
Bradford '08 (O's/Rays)	0.5	$2.5	$3.7
Bradford '09 (Rays)	0.1	$0.5	$3.7
Walker '07	0.7	$2.9	$3.0
Walker '08	-1.0	($4.5)	$4.5
Walker '09	-0.3	($1.5)	$4.5

Do the math and the those three pitchers were paid just over $41M for $3M worth of pitching. See the details on each pitcher below the jump...

Chad Bradford - The least offensive of the three contracts went to Chad Bradford. The 2006 Orioles allowed 216 home runs, the most in the American League. Bradford, coming from a very effective Mets bullpen and known for being stingy with home runs, could only help with that stat. Bradford signed for three years, $10.5M, with the buzz around baseball at the time being that he only agreed to come to the Orioles if they guaranteed the third year, something most teams were not willing to do.

In year one of his contract, Bradford more than earned his $3M. He made 78 appearances, second on the team to only Jamie Walker. True to form he allowed just 1 HR all year and finished the season with an ERA+ of 138. His 2.2 BB/9 was lowest on the team as he walked just 16 in 64.2 innings.

2008 began with Bradford being as useful as the previous year. He made 47 appearances for the Orioles with a 2.45 ERA, allowing just 2 HR (one was Manny Ramirez's 500th at a game I had the "fortune" of attending). Bradford was looking strong for the second consecutive year until Andy MacPhail traded him to the Rays in August. It appeared he was traded for PTBNL but it ended up to be a cash transaction of about $20K. Some Orioles fans were up in arms over MacPhail throwing Bradford away for nothing, but it appears that he got rid of him at just the right time. Bradford finished the year with Tampa Bay in a less than stellar way. His walk rate jumped, his K rate fell, and while his final results didn't show it (just 3 ER in 19 IP), Bradford just wasn't as good.

2009 hasn't been kind to Bradford. He had to undergo elbow surgery in the offseason and didn't make his first appearance until 27 June. Less than one month later he went back onto the disabled list with back troubles. Since returning on August 23rd he's been less than impressive.

Thanks to the fortuitous timing of his trade, Orioles fans are able to look back on Chad Brad and his Chadstache fondly, but had he stayed here all three years it would have been just another failed contract.

Jamie Walker - Jamie Walker is a cool cat that never should have been signed to a three year deal. He did awesome things like say, "If it fits in a skillet, I kill it." He bought Koji cowboy boots and he got fined for saying in the press that the umpires are on the take. Unfortunately, when it came down to it, Jamie Walker did not deserve three years. Most 35 year old relievers do not deserve three year deals.

Walker was good in his first year, setting an Orioles record for games appeared in with 81. He struck out 41 in 61 innings and walked only 17. He was especially good against lefties, allowing just 24 hits by them all year, 19 of which were singles. Even with his effective year, FanGraphs still valued him at $2.9M, $100K less than what he was paid.

While he was good in 2007, it all fell apart in 2008. It wasn't Walker's fault; he just got too old. The junk he'd always thrown got a little too junky. The lefties who had had an OPS of just .594 against him in 2007 knocked him around to to the tune of a .913 OPS in 2008. He gave up 31 runs in 38 innings and caused Orioles fans around the world to curse both Walker and Dave Trembley for continuing to run him out there.

2009 was more of the same. 22 appearances, 12 innings, 8 runs, 5 home runs, 9 out of 23 inherited runners scored. Mercifully the Orioles put Jamie Walker out of his misery on 5 June, giving him his release. Walker hasn't been heard from since as, at age 37, he surely knows he is cooked.

Danys Baez - Ah, saving the best for last. Baez got the biggest, gaudiest contract of them all. Unlike Walker and Bradford, Baez did not start his Orioles career by being effective. Baez pitched 50.1 innings over 53 appearances in 2007, walking a ridiculous 5.8 per 9 innings and racking up an ERA of 6.44. In 2007 Baez was that pitcher that caused me to turn off the television before even seeing what he might do. Baez was shut down in the middle of September and would miss the entire 2008 season with an elbow tear.

Baez came to spring training 2009 as part of the starting rotation competition. He didn't make it, but started the year suprisingly well and has pitched more effectively than most of us would have predicted. That's not to say that he's been outstanding, because he hasn't been. He certainly hasn't been worth the 6 plus million dollars he's being paid this year, but he hasn't been awful, especially when compared to some of the garbage that has rolled out of the Orioles bullpen.

Even with his minor resurgence this season, the Danys Baez contract was a colossal failure. Same for Jamie Walker. Chad Bradford was headed down that road as well before he was traded. And in a few days, they will all be off the books. Somehow I can't see Andy MacPhail making those kinds of deals, can you?

Fire Everyone! - Carl Willis

Jay — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:40:12 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

"Basically, Justersonster, you only get to be good for one year as long as I'm your coach. So which year is it going to be?"

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This is the third installment in a 12-part series.

The case is simple: Our pitching stinks, fire the pitching coach.

While we've seen consistently good-to-great lineups for the past four years or so, our rotation has gone from a wonderfully deep collection of quality pitchers to an utter wasteland. As for our bullpens, the words "historically bad" have been used — without hyperbole — to describe four of the last six.

In fairness to Willis, a recap is in order of some truly great pitching Indians fans have seen under his watch:

CC Sabathia (2003), Jake Westbrook (2004) and Cliff Lee (2005) all emerged as young quality starters in Willis' first three seasons with the club.
Veterans Brian Anderson (2003) and Scott Elarton (2004) had solid bounce-back seasons.
Injury-plagued Kevin Millwood (2005) won the AL ERA title in his only season with Willis, and Carl Pavano (2009) returned from a four-year hiatus to become an above-average starter.
Rafael Betancourt emerged as one of the few consistently good middle relievers in the game.
The 2005 staff led the league in ERA and allowed just 3.96 runs per game. The club essentially made it through the season using only five starters, and it was essentially just as steady and stable in 2006.
The 2005 bullpen in particular led the league in ERA and WHIP by significant margins and might have been the best in club history.
Sabathia emerged as a true ace late in the 2005 season, producing Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Fausto Carmona (2007) produced a Cy Young-caliber season while barely more than a rookie.
Cliff Lee (2008) produced a dominant, historic season, including a unanimous Cy Young award, and one of the most remarkable comeback stories the game has ever seen.

It is an impressive list of accomplishments — which just makes it all the more amazing that there's a good case for firing the guy. On a macro level, the bullpen has been the runaway leading culprit in the trademark early-season collapses of the Wedge era. If it weren't for those four horrendous bullpens, in fact, there likely would never have been any talk whatsoever about Wedge's teams starting slow.

Despite many seemingly fine internal candidates, he has never been able to cultivate a closer. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera withered away to nothing, and Jensen Lewis seems to be following not far behind them. A long list of pitchers have arrived in Cleveland ready to compete and even dominate — Carmona, Davis, Cabrera, Sowers, Perez, Lewis — and then, at some point before they hit the two-year mark, they just lose it. Too many of the Indians' best young pitchers seem to forget how to pitch completely, or they lose the ability to do what made them successful. And when they forget, Willis seems utterly unable to remind them.

Time after time, we see pitchers shipped down to the minors to reconstruct their games. This is in part a practical necessity, but at some point the question must be asked: Isn't the pitching coach supposed to help the pitchers, you know, pitch better?

You may not be surprised to learn that, at least from an outside perspective, Willis' minor league résumé is almost vanishingly thin. Looking at the rosters for 1997 Watertown, 1998 Burlington and 1999 Columbus (Ga.), there is an amazing lack of major league talent. Sabathia made eight starts for those clubs as he breezed through the minors, and Tim Drew and Ryan Drese each made a few starts for them. But as for the pitchers who spent significant time with Willis in the low minors, however, not a single one ever had a significant big-league career. The 2000 Aeros allow Willis to claim some credit for Danys Baez's development, and he did coach Zach Day for eight starts. Think about that: eight starts with Zach Day is Willis' second most impressive work product for those four seasons in the minors.

Willis moved up to Buffalo with Wedge for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and he moved up to Cleveland with Wedge in 2003. Naturally, Willis couldn't help but work with future major leaguers once he was working in Triple-A, but even so, the list is pretty thin. He had 12 starts with then-prospect Westbrook and another eight with Lee. Other than that, Willis' minor league highlights are led by names like Tim Drew, Mike Bacsik and Sean DePaula.

In fairness, it was this exact, astonishing dearth of talent that led the Indians to blow up the team in 2002, and in no way am I suggesting that it's Willis' fault that there was so little talent there to work with. Still, after six years in the minors, you would hope that there would be more tangible things to point to — some pitcher, anyone, who developed into a good major leaguer, largely under Willis' tutelage — but that pitcher doesn't seem to exist. It seems that Willis owes his presence in the majors largely if not entirely to the judgment of Eric Wedge, and one shudders to consider what qualities Willis had that Wedge felt made him the best guy to be the Indians pitching coach. Is Carl Willis a grinder? Was Wedge hoping that Willis would "run into one?" Is he, in fact, the Ryan Garko of pitching coaches?

Even Willis' accomplishments fade under closer inspection. Sabathia is a unique and protean talent who arrived as a reasonably effective starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. You would expect an exceptional young talent like him to progress somewhat in his first few years, to have occasional setbacks, and eventually to emerge as one of the game's top pitchers. Willis deserves credit for helping Sabathia fulfill his potential, but it did take six years for it to happen, and when they started their fourth season together in 2006, it still hadn't happened. Durability aside, it would be a stretch to say that Sabathia exceeded expectations once Willis arrived.

Lee presents a similar mixed bag, as a prospect whose ceiling was always seen as a number-one starter. Again, the natural tendency is to credit Willis for some portion of Lee's miraculous rise from the gutter in 2008. The problem comes when you ask, who was Lee's pitching coach when his career careened off into that gutter in the first place? Who was his coach when his very fine 2005 season turned into a thoroughly mediocre 2006, followed by 2007, when Lee fell entirely off the depth chart? Did the Indians, on balance, get as much out of Lee as was expected, from 2005 through 2008? Even if the answer is "yes," Willis' work with Lee doesn't seem to be an overwhelming positive on the balance sheet.

And then there's the Boys of 2007: Carmona, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Carmona's odd odyssey in 2006 is well documented, but he seemed to arrive in 2007 as an Instant Ace. I'd like to give Willis some credit for this, but when a veteran slugger says Carmona's power sinker is like a bad hangover, it's not clear how much credit can be given to coaching. Lewis and Perez each arrived mid-season in 2007, propelled by months of dominance in the high minors, and they kept right on going, dominating AL hitters all the way down the stretch. Lewis has struggled to pitch consistently in 2008 and 2009. Perez was a solid reliever in 2008 and has been arguably the worst reliever in the major leagues this season. Both relievers collapsed despite not having any notable injury problems. As for Carmona, he may well be the single most brutally disappointing player Indians fans have followed this decade.

Among the three pitchers, these three facts seem consistent:

They arrived and performed at the very high level portended by their track records.
Willis played no significant role in their development as prospects.
They have all totally collapsed since their first full seasons in the majors.

Without breakout performances from Perez and Lewis in 2007, we'd be talking about four historically awful bullpens in four consecutive seasons, rather than in just three seasons out of the last four. Following the 2006 debacle, the Indians spent relatively heavily on bullpen options, bringing in Hernandez, Fultz, and Borowski for 2007. Masa Kobayashi was brought in to fortify what was viewed as promising core in 2008, which turned into another debacle. Topping prior efforts, the Indians acquired Kerry Wood and Joe Smith for 2009 — once again hoping to bolster a solid core of Betancourt, Perez and Lewis — and the Triple-A club was stocked with solid minor league free agents and a few dominating prospects, led by Tony Sipp. Yet once again, the bullpen crumbled completely and tanked the season early.

Reliever performances are maddeningly hard to project — functionally impossible in fact — but it should be clear at this point that small samples alone cannot explain the wild swings in performance for pitchers like Lewis and Perez. No scout would claim they are the same pitchers they were in 2007, or that Carmona is. At one point, they knew how to pitch successfully, and now, they don't. One wonders if within the next few years, their careers will become just as insubstantial as those who came before them, like Davis and Cabrera.

If the bullpen is any significant part of Willis' responsibilities, then his performance must be considered a failure at this point. The best we can say for the man's tenure with the Indians is that for the most elite pitching talent, in their prime, he has helped them to achieve their potential, and he has helped a few rehabbed retreads put together some nice make-good seasons. Both of these types of contributions have been very useful to the club. For pitchers who were not already established, however, and not elite talents coming out of the minors, the overall pitching productivity under Willis has been simply abysmal.

One more factor worth considering is the availability of Leo Mazzone, the well-known pitching coach for the 1990s Atlanta Braves. In addition to coaching three pitchers to six Cy Young awards, Mazzone is also the subject of a comparative statistical study that showed that pitchers coached by him tended to lower their ERA by an average of half a run. Neither of these facts are conclusive as to Mazzone's true ability, but then, nothing ever is when it comes to coaches. We can't know for sure how much good or harm Willis has done, or how much of the Braves' immense pitching success was owed to Mazzone. Clubs have to make decisions in the absence of real certainty, with coaches just as much as players.

It may seem callous (and even "un-Shapiro") to kick Willis to the curb just because someone better is available. Maybe it is callous. It's also the kind of thing that organizations do when they're serious about competing. We could badly use a coach with a knack for turning fringy pitchers into decent major league starters and relievers — and by "we" I mean "Jeremy Sowers and David Huff." Mazzone has shown that knack, and Willis hasn't. Under the current leadership, if the Indians have the worst bullpen in the majors next season, not one person will be able to claim surprise. Maybe Willis has done nothing to cause those disasters, but he certainly hasn't prevented them. Whatever his accomplishments here, it's time to fire the pitching coach.

Orioles 7, Yankees 3: Brian Matusz makes us happy

Camden Chat — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 20:32:20 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

Brian Matusz made Derek Jeter so mad he almost said a bad word to the umpire. Siddown, Jetes. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Last June, according to the story told by Gary Thorne on today's telecast, Brian Matusz had just signed with the Baltimore Orioles. He was in New York for the draft, and saw the new Yankee Stadium being constructed. He said to himself, "I'm going to pitch there someday." He had yet to throw his first professional pitch.

Fast forward 15 months. Brian Matusz got his wish, or, more accurately, earned his destiny and took the mound at the new Yankee Stadium today against the New York Yankees. He entered the day having won his last two outings, and having gone 7.0 IP in both. He'd given up just 5 ER in those 14 innings, and O's fan might have been cautiously optimistic about today's game.

Throw caution to the wind, people - Brian Matusz will be winning a lot more games in Yankee Stadium over the next six years.

Matusz went 7.0 IP again today, and aside from a SAC fly in the 1st inning, didn't allow a run in his last six innings of work. Sure, he had his troubles, but not many. There was a 20-pitch inning, and the Yankees sent five men to the plate in the 7th. That was the most he faced all day - five batters in an inning. It's great to win. But to face just three or four batters an inning, almost every inning? And by a rookie? Against a team that's up by eight games in the AL East? I'll take it.

The offense did its best, for one inning, to make this an easy day for Matusz. In the second inning, AL ROY candidate Nolan Reimold led off with a home run to left-center, Matt Wieters walked after Luke Scott looked terrible, again, and Ty Wigginton singled Wieters to second base. Michael Aubrey singled the two runners over, and Robert Andino singled Wieters in.

Then Brian Roberts came up. Then the ball went out, over the wall in right-center. Pretty quickly, too.

The grand slam by Roberts, his 15th HR of the season, made the game a 6-1 lead for the Orioles, and the way Matusz was pitching, you could almost feel comfortable. Next year, when he's allowed to complete games, a 6-1 lead may be as automatic a win as you can earn in the majors. But, for now, we're at the mercy of Diamond Dave's decisions with the bullpen.

The sight of Chris Ray warming up in the 7th inning was not needed. Really, Dave, really? Chris Ray? In New York? You do remember what happens when Chris Ray pitches in New York, right? Instead, sanity prevailed, Matusz was allowed to finish the 7th, and Danys Baez came in to pitch the 8th, and did so in a completely professional and non-exciting manner. Thank you, Danys. Jim Johnson finished the game. That's all I'm saying about Jim Johnson today. I will not spoil the good mood.

The Orioles go for the improbable series sweep tomorrow, and here's hoping the O's close them out. -duck

Poll

Who was the Most Birdland Player for Sept. 12, 2009?

Brian Matusz (W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 K, 2 BB)

158 votes

Nolan Reimold (2-3, HR, RB, amazing first-row catch of foul ball)

6 votes

Brian Roberts (3-4, Grand Slam, 4 RBI, 1 R, and, oh yeah, a GRAND SLAM. Plus a walk.)

62 votes

Danys Baez (1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1K, not being Chris Ray while in New York)

0 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

Diamondbacks looking for bullpen help

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 16:34:59 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

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The Diamondbacks are in serious need of some bullpen help. They are 25th in the league in bullpen-ERA, 3rd for high opponent batting average, and 7th in the league in runs surrendered.

"I think we do have a lot of talent and a lot of numbers and flexibility," GM Josh Byrnes said. "I think the question will be: Do we maybe want to try to add a veteran who fits into our budget to stabilize things? We'll probably consider it."

Who could the Diamondbacks add? They have a closer in Chad Qualls, but could probably use a more effective set up man. Players like LaTroy Hawkins, Chad Cordero, and Danys Baez would be cheap additions to your team.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - LaTroy Hawkins	1-4	50	0	0	0	11	3	48.2	43	12	11	5	13	35	2.03	1.15

The Diamondbacks younger players are still putting everything together, but the Diamondbacks should consider trading Brandon Webb. Putting him out on the market to see what they could get in return might be a smart long-term move, even if they do not intend to move him.

Royals 5, Orioles 3. So, Bruce Chen, huh?

duck — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 02:41:05 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

Rich Hill prepares for yet another awful pitch. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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Losing teams find ways to lose. And tonight, the Orioles found a way to lose to Bruce Chen and the Royals. Yup, Bruce Chen, ex-Oriole, last seen getting whiplash watching balls fly over the fence in 2006. He of the 6.58 ERA, the 1.462 WHIP and measly 5.5 K/9 in 2009.

And sure enough, the O's scored in each of the first two innings. Granted, KC scored in the first as well, but the O's couldn't lose to Bruce Chen, could they?

Rich Hill answered the question rather convincingly. Hill, who knew, stone cold knew, that his pitching career could be decided by tonight's effort, lasted seven outs. He gave up three runs, four hits, walked three, struck out one and generally looked clueless. His delivery looked awful, he had no idea where the ball was going, and didn't even bother throwing his glove in the dugout when Dave Trembley came out to yank him. And if corporal punishment was legal for pitchers, I do believe Diamond Dave would have taken him behind the nearest woodshed.

Oh, the lineup doesn't get a pass tonight. Did I mention we lost to Bruce Chen? Sure enough, aside from Adam Jones hitting a solo HR and getting hit at an opportune time, the Orioles just didn't get much going. The other RBI was the result of a Matt Wieters single that scored Aubrey Huff, but then third-base coach Juan "Windmill" Samuel had Nolan Reimold try for home, where he was out by about 700 feet, roughly. Maybe 600. Looked like 700 to me.

I could recite the offensive futility of the Orioles in this game, but much like Nickelback songs, it's the same tune, just different details. The bullpen did its job, for the most part, with Brian Bass going scoreless for 3.1 and although single runs were scored against Matt Albers and Danys Baez (whose trade values sinks like a rock with every appearence), Cla Meredith came in and threw a shutout inning to finish the 9th. But the bullpen didn't really lose this one. Rich Hill did.

Losing teams find a way to lose, and having a starter like Rich Hill in the rotation certainly increases the odds. And it's getting damn frustrating to watch.

Poll

Who was the Most Birdland Player for Monday, July 27, 2009?

Nolan Reimold (2-3, 1 BB)

41 votes

Adam Jones (1-3, HR, HBP)

33 votes

Aubrey Huff (2-4, 1BB)

3 votes

Brian Bass (3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K)

36 votes

No one - 3 runs against Bruce Chen? Are you kidding me?

138 votes

251 votes | Poll has closed

Jhoulys Chacin promoted from AA to bolster 'Pen

RockiesMagicNumber — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:15:31 -0000

According to Troy Renck and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, Rockies top pitching prospect Jhoulys Chacin has been promoted from AA Tulsa to the Rockies to fill in the Rockies' ailing bullpen.

While not expressly linked, the move may very well be in reaction the announcement yesterday that reliever Manuel Corpas, will be undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow.

Chacin, who was posting a 3.14 ERA in 18 starts, is expected to be a future starting pitcher for Colorado, and has developed major-league command of a sinker and changeup to the point where the front office deemed him ready to hit the Majors. His solid work in AA combined with his strong showing in Spring Training made him a prime candidate for making the jump to Coors.

In 106 2/3 innings pitching this season, Chacin is sporting a 54% GB% as well as a 2.21 K/BB ratio.

SBNation blog Minor League Ball covered Chacin as a transition candidate here.

While this may be the most exciting move recently, the Rockies may yet make other, and are still linked to the Orioles' Danys Baez and the Indians' Rafael Betancourt. Randy Flores, Joel Peralta, and recently signed Matt Herges are also available for callup.

Texas Rangers Looking For Pitching

Matt Buggenhagen — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 20:34:42 -0000

More photos » by Sharon Ellman - AP

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If the Texas Rangers are going to make a deal before the July 31 deadline expect it to be for a pitcher, says Jeff Wilson at the Dallas News.

The Rangers pitching staff has been somewhat average this year. Their rotation is lead by veterans Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla both of who have had solid years. The back end of their rotation is very young, but very promising with Scott Feldman and Derek Holland. Given the fact that the Rangers only have two starters with any big game experience it's understandable that they might look to acquire some veteran starters. The Rangers pitching staff currently ranks nineteenth among all major league teams with a 4.32 team ERA.

The Rangers have been one of several teams linked to Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, however it's unlikely they would be willing to give up the young pieces needed to obtain him. One thing's for sure though if the Rangers wanted Halladay, and had the financial wherewithal to afford him, they could definitely get him. The Rangers have unquestionably one of the best farm systems in all of baseball.

However, while Halladay is certainly the big prize of 2009 he's not the only pitcher on the market. The Rangers reportedly are interested in several other pitchers including Cliff Lee, Zach Duke, Doug Davis, Ian Snell, Jonathan Sanchez, Jon Rauch, Rafael Betancourt, Danys Baez, Matt Capps and David Weathers (you get the point, they're interested in everyone).

Rangers GM John Daniels doesn't deny the fact that the Rangers are looking, but he understands that as of now the team can only focus on the players they have.

"We're certainly looking into everything that's there," Daniels said. "But until something presents itself, we need to prepare as though the group we have is the group we're going to try to go forward with."

With the Rangers right within striking distance of their first division title since 1999, I have to imagine Daniels is going to make a move to try and win now. He has arguably the deepest farm system in all of baseball that should allow him to the flexibility to go out and acquire a veteran pitcher.

Entering play tonight the Rangers are currently 49-41, which puts them three games behind the first place Angels.

AL East SB Nation Midseason Roundtable: The Trade Deadline

hugo — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 11:23:15 -0000

So, Sky Kalkman of the incredible site Beyond the Boxscore hosted a roundtable featuring bloggers from each SB Nation AL East blog: R.J. Anderson of D-Rays Bay (Tampa), Stacey Long of Camden Chat (Baltimore) , Randy Booth of Over the Monster (Boston), and Travis Goldman of Pinstripe Alley (New York), and Tom and I from your favourite Jays' site. Part I focuses on the trade deadline, while part II focuses on second-half storylines. Anyway, without further adeiu:

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): I think the Rays could buy and sell. If someone comes along with an enticing offer for Carl Crawford or Scott Kazmir, I fully expect the Rays to listen. At the same time, seeing them acquire a cheap catcher wouldn't shock me either.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Historically, the Jays have been quiet in July in terms of deals - not buying or selling. This season could be somewhat different. Of course everyone has heard the Roy Halladay trade rumours but I have to say, I don't think it's particularly likely he gets dealt before next year's trade deadline, though you never know. Scott Rolen could be interesting to some teams, but the Jays would likely need to get back someone who could play third base next season. Lyle Overbay has slumped lately but he is still having a solid season and could be a useful piece. And if anyone needs a shortstop short-term, Marco Scutaro will be a free agent after this season and is having a very fine season on both sides of the ball. The Jays would be looking to get young position players back, particularly in the infield, as only Aaron Hill is signed after the 2010 season. They could also be looking for a young power hitter. The Jays would love to trade Vernon Wells, of course, but his deal makes that very difficult, even without the no-trade clause.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): There is no question that the Orioles should be sellers this year. They aren't going anywhere in the standings and they have a number of free agents to-be who could provide value to contending teams. Danys Baez has seen a career revival this year after missing all of last season. He's a FA next year and I can't imagine the O's bringing him back unless he takes a considerable pay cut. Aubrey Huff, also an upcoming FA, has dropped off after a great 2008 but still provides left handed power and has proven himself much more adequate at 1B than could have been imagined. Some O's fans want Aubrey to be re-signed (or at least offered arbitration after the year) because the Orioles don't have an immediate solution to replace him in 2010. Plus Huff has really endeared himself to fans and has publicly stated that he wants to remain an Oriole. He has regrets about leaving the Devil Rays just before they crossed the line into contending, and he's scared to miss that boat with the O's as well. Other possible trade pieces for the Orioles include George Sherrill, Jim Johnson, and Luke Scott. I think the O's may make a few trades, but Andy MacPhail is nothing if not methodical. He won't trade just because it seems like he should and he won't give away anything if he doesn't get substantial value in return. It seems that he prefers to operate in the winter when there is more flexibility, and he's very, very deliberate. But his patience did bring us Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, and more, so for now I'll defer to his wisdom.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): The Red Sox will be "buyers," if you even want to call them that. They're certainly not sellers as the team with the best team in the American League. Even though the Red Sox have been inconsistent, they may not necessarily need to trade for anything. They have a few guys like Jed Lowrie coming off the disabled list that will instantly shore up some holes (of course, that's if he stays healthy). So for another year under Theo Epstein, the Sox might not make a huge splash -- unlike last year, when that guy named Manny, I think, was traded.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Catcher, corner outfield, pitching. John Jaso might be able to help out at catcher, and the other two are just for depth in the system.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): The Jays have had a huge hole at DH/LF for most of the year - Adam Lind has done a great job in one of those spots, but the other one has been occupied by the likes of Kevin Millar and David Dellucci. Now that Travis Snider is back from a back/shoulder injury, if he starts hitting well, he could be called up and fill the spot. The Jays' pitching depth is quite impressive, but they will be relying on young and inexperienced starters to fill 4/5 of the rotation so an arm that could add some stability there would also be good, though they might be content to let the rookies work through it. All of them have showed quite a bit of promise. Shortstop remains a huge concern long-term with Marco Scutaro set to become a free agent after the season and no one to replace him in the Jays' system. But a hole at SS is nothing new for the Jays.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): I have to think that the Orioles FO is looking for solutions to 3B and 1B for the immediate future, with SS a slightly more distant concern. Defensively I've had no complaints with Mora but his offense is simply atrocious. He has an option for next year but I will be shocked if it is picked up. There's no internal solution to the 3B issue and Mora isn't getting any better, so I hope that MacPhail has an external solution in mind. As for 1B, the O's only real hitting prospect, Brandon Snyder, could fill that role next year maybe, but it's no sure thing. For the rest of '09, Aubrey Huff will be fine. He's a 2nd half hitter and I'm confident he'll pick up the pace after the AS break.

The O's pitching at the MLB level is certainly sub-par, but I don't know anyone who considers it a "hole." We're all waiting patiently for Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, and a number of other lesser prospects to come up to the bigs and save us. We could see Tillman as early as this year which excites me greatly.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): One thing they certainly do need is a defensive shortstop. Julio Lugo and Nick Green just ain't cutting it, but Jed Lowrie, when he comes off the DL, might, so who knows at this point if a trade is necessary. And the Sox might say they need a big bat to help out Ortiz, because let's face it: can he keep this up for this rest of the season? I'm not so sure. The Sox also might be looking for a third baseman because Mike Lowell has had his issues lately, and I don't think the Sox really want to have Kevin Youkilis over at third all the time. Other than that, I don't think the Sox will be going after much. They certainly don't need any pitchers, but could trade one (Takashi Saito namely).

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): As always, the Yankees will be buyers, and would be even if they weren't three back in the division. Pitching is the biggest weakness, and Cashman should feel free to address both the bullpen and the rotation. Who knew Wang and Pettitte would be this bad? Joba's not going deep enough, and Brian Bruney has been oscillating between injured and ineffective.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Gregg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, worst case: someone like Miguel Olivo.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): R.J., I'd love to see a trade with the Rays that nets the Rays Gregg Zaun, but something tells me it'd be a tough sell. Matt Wieters credits Zaun a lot with helping him in every aspect of being a ML catcher and if their mentor/mentee relationship is really that strong the O's might not want to break it up.

As for O's trade targets, I haven't heard anything specific. Everything centering around the Orioles, trade-wise, explores only the pieces the O's would give away, not what they'd get in return. Whoever it is, I'd imagine it would be mostly minor leaguers.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): All the shortstop names have dropped off the table so far (Omar Vizquel anyone?), but other names have surfaced for 3B like Garret Atkins. Don't color me impressed. The other names that could fill a gap are the Nats' Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn -- if the price is right.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Huston Street has been discussed. Ken Rosenthal (take it for what it's worth) says the Yanks are one of the main players for Halladay. I'd like to throw Cliff Lee's name into the mix. He's obviously not on Halladay's level, but is younger and would require significantly less in terms of prospects.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Basically the top three in the system: Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings, and Wade Davis. I'd probably throw Jeremy Hellickson in that group as well.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): You won't see Travis Snider or left-handed starter Brett Cecil traded. Actually, I doubt that the Jays are going to be willing to trade much in the way of prospects this July.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): The Orioles aren't currently in the business of trading prospects and young major leaguers. I'd imagine that once the pitching starts to take form, perhaps next year, MacPhail will start using his major league ready pieces to fill in the gaps. I haven't heard anything official about players being off limits, but it'll be a cold day in hell before Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, or Nick Markakis are traded.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): While Clay Buchholz's name comes up a lot, he's been untouchable for a few years now and I don't think that will change now. Michael Bowden, however, who is a poor-man's Buchholz, is almost as good and could be up for grabs. Daniel Bard, the fireballing reliever who is impressing scouts every day, could also be traded because let's face it: he's just a reliever. I don't think any, however, will be traded.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): The big four are Hughes, Joba, Austin Jackson and Jesus. For the Yanks to land Halladay, it would require at least two of them; however, Cashman has shown a reticence to deal 'home-grown' players, especially the upper tier ones, so I doubt they get Halladay. Two intriguing pitchers that could get dealt are Zach McAllister and Ivan Nova.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division? How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): Two big keys: Jed Lowrie coming back to shortstop 100 percent healthy. If he can be healthy, he has shown in the past he can play some really good ball. The other key: Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K has been absolutely horrid this season. But if he could come off the disabled list and pitch like he did last season, you can wrap up the AL Pennant and put it in a box on Yawkey Way.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): 1) Aliens attack and destroy Boston, 2) The Mets and Yankees switch divisions, 3) The entire Rays team comes down with mono except for Dioner Navarro, and 4) the Blue Jays trade the Orioles Roy Halladay and Ricky Romero for Felix Pie.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): It's hard to imagine the confluence of events that would have to take place for such a thing to occur, but one thing is certain: the Toronto sports media would still find plenty to complain about.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Both Wang and Joba have to return to 2008 form (in Wang's case, pre-injury). Adding a good reliever would make it easier to move Hughes back to the rotation if Wang/Joba don't return to form.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For the teams probably out of the running, what acquisitions and decisions based on the 2010 and future seasons would you consider a "win"?

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Great question. I'd consider any acquisition of a young position player under team control for the next several years a big win. Particularly at shortstop or third base, where the Jays have little organizational depth in the high minors (and prospects in the low minors who aren't exactly lighting it up at the moment). The Jays have a lot of pitching depth, but not all that many young pitchers with top-of-the-rotation potential. With one-time future-ace Dustin McGowan's career now in doubt, adding a young, top-of-the-rotation potential pitcher to replace him would, of course, be a coup. If you could fill both of those needs by trading Roy Halladay, I think you have to at least consider it.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): I'll skip this...

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): And people ask me why I don't like Red Sox fans...

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): For the past decade or so, August and September have been hard for Orioles fans to watch. The annual swoon comes at us fast and before you know it the O's are finishing the season 4-32 or something almost as ridiculous. I'd consider it a win for the O's to continue to play hard down the stretch and avoid the collapse. Hopefully the young guys on the team still have enough to prove that they won't let themselves pack it in. Another win would be continual improvement by Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, and even Adam Jones. And of course anything done to find help for the Orioles corner infield positions in 2010 and beyond is a bonus.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Baltimore Orioles

Matt Buggenhagen — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 16:10:11 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

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Buyers or sellers?

Let's not kid ourselves here the answer is sellers. While they Orioles have remained somewhat stagnant so far it wouldn't be all too surprising if that changed real soon. The Orioles are clearly a team in transition, and given the bevy of young talent they have it's not unrealistic for them to be competing in the AL East somewhere in the near future. But going into July 31 they'll look to move some of their older parts in order to further solidify their promising future.

Short-term need

The Orioles don't necessarily have any glaring short-term needs. I know they probably would like to move a few of their larger contracts, but generally speaking that's about it. As we said they have a ton of young talent, which for the most part isn't being blocked by old, aging players. They do have some expendable parts, which I would expect them to move. When and if that happens, I think they'll just look to continue to acquire more young players.

Long-term need

Develop, Develop, Develop! The Orioles have a tremendous foundation to build around with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters. Provided they continue to infuse young talent with their core superstars, they've got a shot to be really good in the next few years. They also need to start to develop and acquire quality-starting pitching. They've got a plethora of young pitchers in the minors, but right now they're probably still a year or two away. Look for the Orioles long-term to take the same approach as the Rays did last year, which is continue to acquire young talent at nausea, and hope that it all comes together in and around the same time.

Big leaguers on the market

Four names come to mind here. First there's Aubrey Huff, he's the prototypical trade piece for a team like the Orioles. He's 32, and in the last year of his $8 million contract. Odds are he's not going to resign with the Orioles so it makes sense for them to move him and get something in return. He's only hitting .259 on the year, but his 11 homers lets you know he still has some power left. In a weak trade market Huff could still have some value. Second is Luke Scott, he's without a doubt the Orioles most valuable piece. He's batting .305 with 18 homers and 51 RBIs. He also has a staggering .976 OPS, which is good for forth in the American League. Adding to Scotts value is that he's only set to make $2.4 million this year. If the Orioles elected to move Scott they could use his small contract to command an additional return. Ultimately, the jury is out on whether Scott stays or goes, but my guess would be he goes. Third we have George Sherrill. All reports were that the Orioles have been shopping Sherrill for some time now. A few weeks back it was rumored he may be headed off to the Marlins, but the deal fell through when the Orioles were demanding too much in return. Typically, deals like that get revisited closer to the deadline, and often times the price drops considerably. I would expect that to be the case with Sherrill, I think the Orioles will defiantly move him. There are too many teams looking for left-handed relievers. Sherrill is only 32-years-old (which in left-handed reliever years isn't that old), and he already has 20 saves on the year. He's set to make $2.75 million this year, which is more than reasonable based on his performance. The Orioles have no use for him long-term, and odd's are he'll be gone before they are a serious contender, so it makes sense to move him now while his value is high. Finally we have Danys Baez, the Orioles would love to move Baez given the chance. He's 31, and scheduled to make $7.1 million this year. He's not going to re-up with the O's, so if they could move his hefty contract and get anything in return odds are they will.

Minor league strength

Overall the minor league system for the Orioles is pretty solid. They developed Matt Wieters, who is arguably the best prospect in baseball, and they have some pretty good young pitchers with Brian Matusz,Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta. They've been fortunate to have some high draft selections, but to their credit they've transformed them into some pretty good players.

Take on short-term money to win?

Zero. However, given their promising young roster the Orioles do have the potential to contend in the near future. They need to continue to develop their young pitching prospects, and if they sprinkle in a few solid veterans they might be good pretty soon. Unfortunately, they always will have the Yankees and Red Sox to contend with, but the Rays of 2008 should be a promising example to the Orioles that patience can pay off. Their not nearly as talented as the 08' Rays, yet, but steadily as they infuse more of their young players into the rotation it's not far fetched to see them contending for an AL East title in the next 3-5 years.

For more coverage of the Orioles, check out Camden Chat.

Orioles 12, Mariners 4: The Tale of Luke Scott and the 7 RBI

duck — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 05:44:53 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Luke Scott did this a lot Tuesday night in Seattle. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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For the last week, the Orioles have lost just about every battle of bullpens they've been involved in. Sure, last Tuesday was fun, but since then? Not so much. The blown lead against the Red Sox the next day. The blown four-run lead against the Angels on Saturday. The blown four-run lead against the Angels on Sunday. And yesterday's one-hit affair is best forgotten all together.

Tonight was a strange, strange night, and a week's worth of breaks went against, then for, the Orioles in the game against the Mariners. First, we went up 2-0 against Erik Bedard in the first inning. Progress, you say? Sure, if the umps hadn't blatantly blown a call and cost the Orioles a run. To set the scene: Nolan Reimold is on first, Nick Markakis is on second and Adam Jones is on third with Luke Scott batting. Nick and Adam easily score when the throw from the outfield bounces off the pitcher's mound and into a camera well. Nolan Reimold, who slowed AFTER rounding second, is awarded third base, but not home. He should have scored.

Here's why. Rule 7.05 (g) is about as clear as baseball rules get. To wit:

(g) Two bases when, with no spectators on the playing field, a thrown ball goes into the stands, or into a bench (whether or not the ball rebounds into the field), or over or under or through a field fence, or on a slanting part of the screen above the backstop, or remains in the meshes of a wire screen protecting spectators. The ball is dead. When such wild throw is the first play by an infielder, the umpire, in awarding such bases, shall be governed by the position of the runners at the time the ball was pitched; in all other cases the umpire shall be governed by the position of the runners at the time the wild throw was made;...

APPROVED RULING: ...The term "when the wild throw was made" means when the throw actually left the player’s hand and not when the thrown ball hit the ground, passes a receiving fielder or goes out of play into the stands.

It got worse. Jeremy Guthrie could barely reach 90 mph tonight, and his ball was flat. He was examined by the trainer in the first inning, and was pulled during the third. Dave Trembley in his post-game confab with Jim Hunter and Jim Palmer said Guthrie told him he felt dizzy during warm-ups and his stomach was upset. Trembley said there was no issue with his arm or shoulder, Guthrie simply was sick. We'll see.

Orioles Magic started to happen once the starters left. When Guthrie left, the score was 3-2 Seattle. The Mariners would not score again until the ninth, when the game was safely out of reach,. Mark Hendrickson pitched 2.2 innings, then came Matt Albers, Danys Baez and Jim Johnson, all pitching scoreless relief, before George Sherrill gave up one run. Seattle, meanwhile, was hamstrung by Erik Bedard's 80 pitch count limit. He was filthy tonight - eight K's and just on ewalk and made it look easy after the first inning. But once he was gone, this was a whole new ballgame. Three Seattle relievers combined to allow 10 runs, and what was a one-run Seattle lead in the 5th inning became a nine-run deficit by the end of the 7th.

Luke Scott destroyed the Mariners tonight. He was a double shy of the cycle, drove in 7 runs, and his 3-run homer in the 7th capped of a 6 run inning that ended any hope of the Mariners coming back. Nolan Reimold did his part as well, with 3 RBI in a two for four night at the plate. Ty Wigginton continues to surprise with his adequacy at second base, and Melvin Mora may be slow on the basepaths, but he can still gun them out from 3B when on the field.

Tomorrow's game, the last on the West Coast for the year, starts at 4:05 Eastern. And I, and the rest of Birdland, can return to normal sleep patterns.

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Poll

Who was the Most Birdland Player for July 7, 2009?

Luke Scott (3-4, 1 HR, 7 RBI. Yeah, I said SEVEN)

283 votes

Nolan Reimold (2-4, 3 RBI)

7 votes

Mark Hendrickson (2.2 IP, W, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 K, 1 BB)

11 votes

301 votes | Poll has closed