SB Nation - Austin Kearns

2010 UZR Projections - Updated 11/15/09

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 18:46:04 -0000

Note: I posted a spreadsheet on 11/14/09 that was not age adjusted. I would prefer for people to used the new age-adjusted spreadsheet. I posted it at 9:30 MST on 11/15/09, but will be leaving the non-age-adjusted one available. Sorry for this inconvenience. --Jeff

I created UZR projections for the 2010 season and the values are available on Google Documents Spreadsheet (original non age adjusted spreadsheet). I got 4 years worth of UZR numbers from Fangraphs. Then I did a 5-4-3-2 yearly weighting regressed to 125 games with a -0.7UZR aging factor (article where the math is explained).

I selected for the worksheet any players that played in at least 63 games at the position over the last 4 years. Some retired players are included, but I don't want to make any judgment on whether they will come back and play. Also, for players who played in less than 63 games, I added their UZR value if it was greater than 1 or less than -1. Sorry for the lack of team-wide charts, but I might add them near the beginning of the season once rosters are more finalized. Please let me know if you have any questions about the data. Here are a couple charts of the projected leaders and laggards at each position (players that played that position in 2009).

Leaders

Position	Name	Projected UZR
1B	Albert Pujols	5.5
2B	Chase Utley	11.0
3B	Evan Longoria	11.0
SS	Adam Everett	8.6
RF	Austin Kearns	8.3
CF	Franklin Gutierrez	14.8
LF	Carl Crawford	9.8

Laggards (glad my Royals keep trading for such great glove men)

Position	Name	Projected UZR
1B	Mike Jacobs	-5.6
2B	Kelly Johnson	-5.2
3B	Ryan Braun	-12.4
SS	Yuniesky Betancourt	-9.7
RF	Brad Hawpe	-19.3
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	-9.0
LF	Adam Dunn	-13.4

Help with downloading the file after the Jump

A couple of people have asked, so the spreadsheet can be downloaded by going to "File" -> "Download as" and then selecting desired file type.

The Flea Market

DanUpBaby — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 07:02:18 -0000

More photos » by M. Spencer Green - AP

The part of John Mozeliak will be played by John Turturro.

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THE FLEA MARKET

A VIVA EL BIRDOS PLAY IN ONE ACT

CHARACTERS

JOHN MOZELIAK, a nervous shopper at the St. Louis Ballplayers Goodwill

WALT JOCKETTY, his worldly liaison

TONY LA RUSSA, a disembodied voice

THE GHOST OF CHRISTY MATHEWSON, a cautionary figure

SCENE

The Recession has made strange shopping partners of baseball's vast middle class. WALT JOCKETTY, experienced bargain shopper, steward of a Cincinnati team in the middle of a long and cheap rebuilding process, has seen JOHN MOZELIAK window-shopping wistfully at ballplayer Target long enough to agree to take him under his wing.

So off to ballplayer Goodwill they go. It's not in the newest strip mall, and there are certain types of player—the empty-.275 first baseman, the no-hit, no-field catcher, the righty relief pitcher who specializes in off-speed junk—who will hang on the dusty racks until someone is putting together a particularly weird Halloween costume. But WALT is a veteran of the strange aisles, and he is ready to convince JOHN that there's life after SCOTT BORAS.

WALT: Now this guy, for instance—his agent's name is Scott Boriss. I know the guy, and if you get him on the horn right after his double shift at the mattress warehouse he'll agree to the league minimum just to get you off the phone. I usually start negotiating right when the payphone asks for more quarters.

JOHN: I—I feel awkward being here, Walt.

WALT [looking through a bin of left-handers]: Nonsense. Happens to the best of us. This one has—well, it's most of a slider.

JOHN: I know it does. But this is my big year! Payroll's down, we just made a huge deadline deal, and we've got a big, Matt Holliday-shaped hole to fill in left field. Pretty soon my only duty as General Manager will be christening the ballpark Pujols Stadiang, but this—this is the Offseason of Mozeliak.

WALT: Right, right. So what do you think is better, a LOOGY with no fastball, or a LOOGY with no right arm? I might just take the whole bin. I really—

A MIDI version of WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE rings out of JOHN's pocket. Bargain shoppers glare from behind warped-looking shelving until he flips the phone open and ducks hastily into the UTILITY INFIELDER WHO CAN'T PLAY SHORT aisle. On the phone JOHN can hear a cassette version of WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE, and on top of it, sounding impatient, TONY LA RUSSA.

TONY: Moz Def. Glad I caught you. How's Goodwill? Hey, is Jocko there?

JOHN looks down his glasses at WALT. WALT briefly but firmly shakes his head.

JOHN: You know, ah, he just left. Anyway—what can I help you with?

TONY: I don't know, just calling to chat. You know. I was wondering if you had a left fielder yet.

JOHN [staring at the far wall, where a few unmatched left fielders stand unpromisingly.]: I'll tell you, I'm still looking. But I've got some leads, and I'll—well, I'm sure I'll see you at work. So I can just tell you then.

TONY: About that, Mozambique. I was wondering if you could get one now?

JOHN: Now? Isn't it a little soon?

TONY: Well I don't mean now, of course!

TONY: But if you could get it done in an hour, that'd be great. Anyway, I've got to have two hands to air-play this solo, and Mac's busy air-drumming. Tell Walt Jocketty World I said hey, okay? If you see him again.

JOHN steps out of the aisle to find WALT haggling over a LOOGY.

WALT: Look, I'd give you $400,000, but it says here he's had Dan Johnson Surgery, and to be honest I'm not even sure what that is. I'll fax you an offer sheet. Just be near the front desk when it comes in this time, all right? If they ask what room you're staying in just make something up. [He hangs up.] John, I think I'm going to head out. You see anything you like?

JOHN: I just got off the phone with Tony. I think I'll just grab Xavier Nady on the way out.

WALT: Oh—well, okay. I'll be at the register.

Defeated, JOHN walks to the back of the store, where XAVIER NADY sits in a prime spot on the quiet left fielders' wall. He's been nearly average before, and he can be nearly average again! He is the perfect patch for a team that has not been able to develop its own XAVIER NADYS. But as JOHN takes one last glance at the price tag an eerie but remarkably distinguished chill falls over the aisle. JOHN turns around to find erstwhile Cardinal employee THE GHOST OF CHRISTY MATHEWSON floating carefully over the DISCOUNT SPIRITS aisle and into view. MATHEWSON adjusts his pince-nez and moves one rakish, waxy lock back into place over his forehead.

MATHEWSON: Good afternoon, John—it is I, The Ghost of Christy Mathewson!

JOHN: I know, thanks. What are you doing here? I made the same mistake you did, but that Joel Pineiro in the right-handers aisle, his name sounds exactly like it's spelled. Your guy's at Target this year.

MATHEWSON: I thank you, John, but I'm not here to resume my corporeal meanderings—I'm here to-day with a warning. I owe you as much, after you sorted things out with the players' union. I've been speaking with my—ha, ha—my partners in the, ah ha, para-normal, and I can assure you that none of the ghosts I'm in regular contact with have any desire to possess the Castilian gentle-man on which you've set your left field sights.

JOHN: He's—no offense, Mr. Mathewson, but he's alright on his own, isn't he?

MATHEWSON: All right, perhaps. Adequate, why, almost certainly. But brilliant? Stupendous? When Pete Alexander and I went "Over there" to "deal" with the "Kaiser" did we settle for adequate? Leave adequate to the Old World, friend Mozeliak. If one must arrange for one's left-fielding in this dingy place, it stands to reason that he should aim not for the assuredly unimpressive but for a player who might, should things proceed in his favor, contribute what we called a significant number of Victories As Against the Homunculus.

JOHN: So an Austin Kearns or a Randy Winn, instead of a Xavier Nady?

MATHEWSON: I am merely saying that if one is forced, through circumstance, to look here when they were so recently looking at Matthew Holliday, it might be best to become completely penurious. A Winn on the low end, a Michael Cameron on the high end. And that money might be spent elsewhere, on a replacement for our mutual acquaintance Pineiro or a fleet of Relieving Pitchers to account for these starters' weakened arm-constitutions. The middle path, as my father used to say, only leads to the holes in the fork!

JOHN: Well, Mr. Mathewson—I suppose 'll take that into consideration. Thank you.

WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE begins to play on JOHN's phone.

MATHEWSON: I—I say. I hate to tergiversate but it is in our spectral nature, after all, to make a sudden de-parture! Godspeed, Mr. Mozeliak.

MATHEWSON vanishes; WALT appears, keys in hand.

WALT: Alright, I started the car, so maybe put him on layaway if you're not sure about it. And I'm still not here.

Daily Roundup

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:57:53 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

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FOXSports.com is reporting that Dodgers outfielder Manny Ramirez has exercised his 20 million dollar player option for the 2010 season. Ramirez missed 50 games for violating the leagues drug policy, but ended the year with a .290 average and 19 home runs.
The Twins exercised Michael Cuddyer's 2011 option after he put up career numbers over the 2009 season. Cuddyer will make 8.5 million in 2010 and 10.5 million dollars in 2011. Cuddyer hit 32 home runs this past season.
The Nationals have declined Austin Kearns' 10 million dollar club option, giving him a 1 million dollar buyout instead. Kearns has struggled to stay healthy since joining the Nationals, posting just 174 at-bats this past season.
MLB.com is reporting that the Marlins declined Ross Gload's 2.6 million dollar option for the 2010 season. Gload was a pretty solid pinch-hitter this past season, and will find a job in a similar role in 2010.
The Rockies declined options on Alan Embree and catcher Yorvit Torrealba. Torrealba could emerge as an option for the Mets this offseason.
The Tigers released catcher Matt Treanor and outfielder Marcus Thames. It is possible the Tigers would bring back Treanor on a one year deal, but Thames is a defensive liability and likely won't return.

Washington Nationals Buy Out Austin Kearns...5 Others Become Free Agents.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:42:46 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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In early 2007, when then-DC GM Jim Bowden signed right fielder Austin Kearns to a 3-year/$17.5 million dollar deal with a $10 million dollar club option for a fourth year or a $1 million dollar buyout, Kearns told Washington Post writer Barry Svrluga, as quoted in an 2/2/07 article entitled, "Kearns to Have an Extended Stay With Nats", that he decided to sign an extension to stay in the nation's capital because he liked the direction the team was headed:

"'I got to see how close this is to getting it to where they want it to go,' Kearns said at an afternoon news conference at the downtown offices of the Lerner family, which owns the Nationals. 'I really do think it's closer than what people expect because I think there's a lot of pieces of the puzzle that are already here on the field, and pieces that are here off the field. It excited me.'"

(cont.)...

In explaining the signing, Mr. Bowden, who had been the General Manager in Cincinnati when the Reds made Kearns their 1st Round pick in 1998, told MLB.com's Washington Nationals writer Bill Ladson, in an article entitled, "Nationals, Kearns agree on extension", that Austin Kearns was, "...a complete player. He is like...Ryan Zimmerman,":

"...Austin can play the game from both sides. He is really special. He is just 26 years old. His best years are ahead of him. Philosophically as a general manager, I always like buying free-agent years. I don't like a player going on the market or going on the last year of his contract. I like assets if you can get them at the right numbers and the right deal."

Kearns, who'd been acquired by Washington in a deal with Cincinnati the previous July that also brought SS Felipe Lopez and RHP Ryan Wagner to DC in exchange for pitchers Bill Bray, Gary Majewski and Daryl Thompson and infielders Royce Clayton and Brendan Harris, had hit .264 with a .363 OBP, 33 doubles, 24 HR's and 86 RBI's the previous season in 87 games with the Reds and 63 with the Nationals, and was coming off a 1-year/$1.85M dollar deal with Cincinnati when he agreed to the extension with the Nationals whose team President Stan Kasten labeled the outfielder "a long-term building block", in Mr. Ladson's article while then-manager Manny Acta called the move, "...a step in the right direction."

Three years, 51 doubles, 26 HR's and 123 RBI's later, the Nationals have excercised that club option for a $1 million dollar buyout of the oft-injured outfielder, who played all but one game in 2007 hitting .266 with 35 of the doubles, 16 of the HR's and 74 of the total RBI's he'd collect in his time with Washington, before appearing in just 166 games total in the final two years of his deal, missing time with elbow, foot and, this year, thumb problems/issues/injuries which severely decreased his offensive contributions and ultimately made the 29-year-old outfielder expendable.

MLB.com's Bill Ladson announced the Nationals' decision to cut ties with Kearns this afternoon in an article entitled, "Trio of Nats complete free agent group", where Mr. Ladson also reported that Ron Villone, Dmitri Young, Josh Bard and Livan Hernandez would become free agents, finally removing from the payroll two of the more burdensome contracts (Kearns' and Young's) that the Former DC GM signed players to during his tenure.

Back in September, Washington Post writer Tom Boswell estimated, in a Q&A with readers entitled, "Ask Boswell: Nats, Orioles, Redskins and More", that all the contracts coming off the Nationals' books this winter would total around $31.5 million dollars, and "With (the) Strasburg, Zim and Dunn deals added back in for '10," Mr. Boswell wrote, "...their payroll obligations for next year (would) stand at an incredibly low $40 million or slightly more," leaving the Nationals with at least $20 million to spend on free agents if they were to return to 2009's total payroll, or close to $40 million dollars if they were to increase the payroll to the league-average $80 million dollars.

?'s For The DC Faithful...The bullpen, the infield, the rotation...the new manager? Where will the Nationals start? What will the Nationals' 2010 payroll be? $40, $60, $80M? Are any of these free agents coming back? Not even Villone?

The Bill James Handbook 2010 - Projections For The Washington Nationals' 2010 OF.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 05:44:41 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

4 months ago: Washington Nationals outfielders Willie Harris, left, Nyjer Morgan, center, and Elijah Dukes (34) celebrate after getting the final out of the Nationals' 5-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates in a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Aug. 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Once again, the folks at Acta Sports, publishers of The Bill James Handbook 2010, have given the SB Nation writers who are interested access to the "Hitter Projections" from the soon-to-be published (on Nov. 1, 2009) 2010 edition of Mr. James' Handbook, which is referred to in a testimonial quote by ESPN.com's Peter Gammons on the Acta Sports site as, "The prize of our winter hibernation." For anyone who doesn't know, Bill James is described on his wikipedia page as:

"...a baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he termed sabermetrics in reference to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), scientifically analyzes and studies baseball, often through the use of statistical data..."

Mr. James' bio on the Acta Sports page simply adds that Mr. James:

"...has been writing about baseball and compiling reference books about baseball since 1975. He is currently the Senior Baseball Operations Advisor for the Boston Red Sox."

After the jump, we'll look at the '09 Projections, '09 Stats and 2010 Projections for the Washington Nationals' outfielders...Josh Willingham in left, Nyjer Morgan in center...and...Elijah Dukes in right? Are there any other real options for the Nationals in 2010? See what the three are projected to do next season AFTER THE JUMP...

(cont.)...

The Bill James Handbook 2010 Hitter Projections For The Washington Nationals' OF...

LF Josh Willingham:

*Josh Willingham*	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	138	507	137	31	23	82	.270	.371	.479
'09 Stats	133	427	111	29	24	61	.260	.367	.496
2010 Projections	140	500	130	32	25	78	.260	.363	.482

Nyjer Morgan - CF:

*Nyjer Morgan*	G	AB	H	2B	*SB/SB%*	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	71	240	70	11	26/0.76	16	.292	.339	.367
'09 Stats	120	469	144	15	42/0.71	39	.307	.369	.388
2010 Projections	153	599	181	23	52/0.70	44	.302	.356	.376

Elijah Dukes - RF:

*Elijah Dukes*	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	81	284	72	14	13	44	.254	.363	.461
'09 Stats	107	364	91	20	8	58	.250	.337	.393
2010 Projections	107	346	91	19	12	55	.263	.359	.439

BENCH:

• Willie Harris:

- 2009 Stats - 137 G, 323 AB's, 76 H, 6 2B, 7 HR's, 27 RBI's, .235 AVG, .364 OBP, .393 SLG.

- 2010 Projections - 110 G, 264 AB's, 65 H, 13 2B, 5 HR's, 22 RBI's, .248 AVG, .348 OBP, .367 SLG.

• Justin Maxwell:

- 2009 Stats - 40 G, 89 AB's, 22 H, 4 2B, 4 HR's, 9 RBI's, .247 AVG, .343 OBP, .449 SLG.

- 2010 Projections - 69 G, 203 AB's, 47 H, 6 2B, 7 HR's, 23 RBI's, .232 AVG, .328 OBP, .384 SLG.

• Notes on the #'s, ?'s Raised:

-- Is anyone predicting a different starting OF? Can Roger Bernadina, whose stats were not projected, stay healthy? I can't think of any outfielders in the Nationals' system who are going to make the jump next year? Austin Kearns is almost certainly gone. Can the Nationals compete in the National League with Hammer, Nyjer Morgan and Dukes left to right, or should DC add an OF to the winter shopping list?

-- A .302 hitting, 52 SB, .352 OBP leadoff hitter? Is Nyjer Morgan the man in CF in DC in 20-10? It seemed for a while last season that the Nationals' center field situation was finally solved, but for a player who's never played more than the 120 games he played in 2008, is a 153 game played projection a reasonable expectation? Or a bit generous? If he lives up those #'s, DC's top-o'-the-order-troubles might finally be over...just get that OBP up a bit Morgan? And remember, you don't have to steal every ti---ah, forget it, Run Morgan Run!!!

-- When pre-Trade Deadline talk kept bringing up Josh Willingham's name last July, DC GM Mike Rizzo told Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, as quoted in an article entitled, "Rizzo Has No Plans For A July Firesale", that trading Willingham was not in the team's plans:

"'Why would you want to dump Willingham? We control him for two years, he's [30] years old, and he's a good hitter,' Rizzo said. 'I still think it's a young team. Willingham and Zim, those are guys in their primes or entering their primes. Including Dunn.'"

Are you confident that Willingham, who has a history of back issues, will make it through two more seasons? I've only heard positives about Willingham out of Mike Rizzo, are you assuming he's penciled in in left on Opening Day 2010?

-- Is there any chance of Elijah Dukes getting a full season in right field? He played a combined 129 between the Minors and DC last season, and his combined #'s, .254 AVG, 28 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR's, 68 RBI's, are maybe less than you'd like in terms of power, but far better than I see any other outfielder in the Nationals' system producing in 2010...Any doubt in your mind that Dukes will start the season in right?

-- Maxwell, Harris and Bernadina off the bench? Are Maxwell and Bernadina wasted as part-time players? Do either of them have any trade value? It would seem to me they're probably considered a bit more valuable/impressive by DC fans who've seen their best stretches, as opposed to other teams, who look at their total production?

Washington Nationals' Possible Candidates for September Roster Expansion

Dave at Nats News Network — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:54:55 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Collin Balester could rejoin the team as early as Sept. 1 when the major league rosters expand. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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With September 1 literally just hours away, major league teams can expand their active roster to include anyone occupying a spot on their 40-man roster. Traditionally, teams have utilized the "September call-up" in one of several ways:

1) For contenders, it's a chance to give their regulars a night off here and there in preparation for the gruel of the playoffs

2) For middle of the pack teams, it's often a reward to long-time minor leaguers or AAAA-types toiling in obsurity

3) For bottomfeeders, it's an opportunity for a chance to see that prospect that everyone is excited about, even for just a quick appearance

The Nats seem to fall into all three categories this year.

The Nats have already indicated that they will wait until Syracuse's season is over before calling anyone up, though. So any help will still be at least a week away from arriving in D.C.

Because of the rash of injuries, trades and bullpen struggles, general manager Mike Rizzo has already made the bulk of his September call-ups before the roster expansion happened. Jorge Padilla, Pete Orr, Justin Maxwell, Mike Morse...even pitchers like J.D. Martin, Tyler Clippard and Jorge Sosa would have been prime candidates, were it not for the need earlier in the season.

So who is left? Let's take a look!

ON THE 40-MAN ROSTER

By my count, with Justin Maxwell's impending promotion there are currently 14 players on the 40-man roster NOT on the active 25-man roster:

C: Jesus Flores (15-day DL), Luke Montz (AA-Harrisburg)

SS: Ian Desmond (AAA-Syracuse)

OF Austin Kearns (15-day DL), Nyjer Morgan (15-day DL)

LHP: Scott Olsen (15-day DL), Ross Detwiler (AAA-Syracuse), Matt Chico (AA-Harrisburg)

RHP: Collin Balester (AAA-Syracuse), Shairon Martis (AAA-Syracuse), Marco Estrada (AAA-Syracuse), Luis Atilano (AAA-Syracuse), Ryan Mattheus (minor league DL), Stephen Strasburg

60-day DL: OF Roger Bernadina, RHP Terrell Young, 1B Dmitri Young, RHP Jordan Zimmermann

Players on the 60-day DL do not count toward the 40-man roster, so there may still be some wiggle room to place a player or two on the 60-day to open 40-man space.

Of the 14 players on the 40-man, Flores, Morgan, Olsen and Mattheus are out for the season with injury. And from the sounds of this, Kearns is probably joining them. So we can rule all of those players out.

Rizzo has already been on record that Chico is not likely a candidate, and Strasburg's plans have been laid out in excrutiating detail. Additionally, Rizzo has all but ruled out a cameo for Drew Storen, blazing his way up the minor league chain after being selected No. 10 overall in this year's amateur draft.

That leaves Desmond, Detwiler, Balester, Martis, Estrada and Atilano off the 40-man roster eligible. It's been assumed that the Nats will recall a couple starters to relieve some of the burden from young arms accumulation of innings. But with the signing of Livan Hernandez, who eats innings as well as any pitcher in the majors, maybe that goal has already been achieved.

Still, I can envision seeing Balester, Detwiler, Martis and Estrada all being recalled and utilized as starters or swing-men in September.

And I'll also pencil in Desmond. He's had a terrific season, and the Nats have to be wondering if the best arm and range in their minor league system can handle the bat enough at the big league level to replace the very quickly aging Cristian Guzman and his bunions.

Atilano is 2-0, 2.45 in two starts since his promotion to Syracuse, and the one-time first round draft pick of the Altanta Braves has enjoyed a fine season overall, but the Nats are probably happy to let him finish the season and head into spring training.

As for players currently not on the 40-man roster? There are certainly some candidates, and most of them are bullpen guys that could again help manage the workload of some of the young starters.

OTHER PITCHERS

There are six relievers in Syracuse that could certainly get "The Call" : RHPs Zech Zinicola, Zack Segovia, Josh Wilkie, Clint Everts and LHPs Jack Spradlin and Yunior Novoa.

Segovia has some major league experince, a 2.70 ERA and five saves for Syracuse. Everts was the Expos 2002 first round pick. In 2009, in over 57.1 IP at three levels (Potomac, Harrisburg & Syracuse), Everts has been outstanding (8-1, 1.41 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 10.4 K/9). Spradlin is 4-3 with four saves and has a 3.19 ERA and 1.212 WHIP across AAA-AA in 44 games. He has struck out an even 7.0 per nine.

Wilkie was an unheralded pitcher from George Washington University (sound familiar?) and has been promoted twice this season. Novoa has a great change but has only been "just decent" this season, despite being promoted three times this season. Zinicola (6.04 ERA) has struggled this year.

OTHER HITTERS

Most of them are already with the big club. Rizzo said the other day he doesn't envision calling up a third catcher just for the heck of it. Montz is the only other catcher on the 40-man, and he's really regressed this season (.184/.295/.314 in 347 plate appearances) after hitting 16 homers last season.

Could Seth Bynum (.263/.306./453, 18 HR, 62 RBI in 433 ABs), Kory Casto (.268/.332/.373, 7-55), Norris Hopper (.291/.342/.344, 23 SBs), Brad Eldred (.267/.338/.478, 16-56) or Daryle Ward (.235/.320/.389, 12-45) get promoted? Possible, but not likely. The only compelling possibility is Hopper, who is a plus defender in center. But you have to figure whatever at bats Wee Willie Harris doesn't get are going to go to Justin Maxwell, in what could make or break his tenure in the organization.

SURE TO BE INCORRECT PREDICTIONS

The Nats add a bunch of arms, but just one more hitter, injury notwithstanding.

From the 40-man: RHPs Balester, Detwiler, Martis, Estrada and SS Desmond

Need to be added to 40-man: RHP Everts and Segovia and LHP Spradlin

Your guess is as good as mine, though. Let's hear 'em in the comments.

There's No Place Like Home: Cubs vs. Nationals, Tuesday 8/25, 7:05 CT

Al — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 22:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

This man can hit. Plus, I just like this photo.

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The Cubs have just completed a stretch of 22 games, 17 of which were on the road and only five at home (it should have been six at home, but the last game vs. Pittsburgh was rained out). The results were... well, bad.

When this all began the Cubs were 54-46, half a game ahead of the Cardinals in first place. They went 8-14 in those 22 games and lost 8.5 games in the standings to St. Louis, because the Cardinals went 16-5 in the same time period.

Neither of those records, I think, reflects how good or bad either team is. The Cubs are better than a .364 team. The Cardinals won't play .762 baseball the rest of the season.

I know some people don't like comparisons to other years and other teams. But I feel compelled to point out that the 2008 Dodgers, on August 29, had just lost eight in a row and were 65-70, 4.5 games out of first place. They went 19-8 the rest of the year and made the postseason, and you know the rest. The 2009 Cubs have already played almost that well for that length of time -- they were 18-9 in July. They have the talent and ability to play like that. They are, admittedly, farther behind than the Dodgers were last year, but they have more time -- 40 games instead of 27. For those who think this is too much ground to make up, I'll give the example of the 2007 Mets, who had a seven-game lead on September 12, with only 17 games remaining in the season. They went 5-12 while the Phillies were going 13-4 and lost the division title by one game. Need more? On September 1, 2007, the Rockies were three games over .500, four games out of first place and five games out of the wild card lead with three teams to jump over. They went 20-7 and won the wild card in a tiebreaker (and the Padres are still waiting for Matt Holliday to touch the plate). That's also less time than the Cubs have left. There's one-quarter of the season -- 40 games -- remaining. That's a lot of time.

And then there's those 1969 Cubs, who had a five-game lead with 24 games remaining. You know how that one ended.

It can happen. It has happened. The Cubs play well at home (35-22, and 10-5 in the last 15 home games), and have the next ten games at home (and 17 of the next 23). It can happen again. Keep the faith. Go Cubs.

Tonight's lineup via Twittermyer:

Theriot, ss; Bradley, rf; Lee, 1b; Ramirez, 3b; Fukudome, cf; Soriano, lf; Soto, c; Fontenot, 2b; Zambrano, p

Today's Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Garrett Mock Nationals

7-4	W-L	2-5
3.35	ERA	5.10
101	SO	40
57	BB	25
8	HR	5
vs. Was	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	7-4	27	20	0	0	0	0	123.2	110	52	46	8	57	101	3.35	1.35

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Garrett Mock	2-5	20	7	0	0	0	1	47.2	62	33	27	5	25	40	5.10	1.83

Garrett Mock faced the Cubs on July 19 in Washington and the results were ugly -- for Mock, that is. Alfonso Soriano homered and Mock gave up eight hits without getting out of the fourth inning. Soriano, Mike Fontenot and Kosuke Fukudome all had two hits off Mock.

Carlos Zambrano also pitched in the July series in Washington, on July 17, and struggled through 113 pitches in five innings. He gave up only an unearned run, but issued four walks. The bullpen hung on to give Z the win. Adam Dunn has hit seven HR off Z in his career, but has only a .224 average (13-for-58) altogether. Current Nats are hitting .221 (43-for-195) against Z and the only other one who has ever homered off him is Austin Kearns.

The Cubs are on CSN Plus -- "check local listings" as that is CLTV in Chicago, but may not be available in all areas. EI viewers may get the MASN telecast, which can be entertaining with Rob Dibble. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Nationals site Federal Baseball. They seem a little lonely over there.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 8 pm, 9 pm and 9:45 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Washington Nationals Place Austin Kearns on DL with Thumb Injury

Dave at Nats News Network — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 16:29:10 -0000

More photos » by Evan Vucci - AP

4 months ago: Washington Nationals' Austin Kearns, foreground, just right of center, is mobbed by teammates after hitting a game-winning single in the 10th inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres on Sunday, July 26, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals defeated the Padres 3-2. From left is Ronnie Belliard, Anderson Hernandez, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Bard, Kearns and Alberto Gonzalez. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

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As first reported on MLB.com last night after the Washington Nationals 6-4 win over the Florida Marlins, this morning the Nats placed RF Austin Kearns on the 15-day disabled list with a right thumb contusion, and he's reported to see a hand specialist in Baltimore as early as today.

Kearns has had a rough 2009 season, to say the least. He has batted .195/.336/.305 with six doubles, two triples, three home runs and 17 RBI in 80 games this season.

The 29-year old right fielder has started just five games since July 1, and with the recall of Elijah Dukes to play right field, his playing time would not have increased down the stretch.

Should this injury be more serious than a bone bruise, Kearns may have worn the Nationals uniform for the last time Tuesday night. The team holds a $10 million option for next season (with a $1 million buyout), an option they are surely not going to exercise.

To take Kearns' spot on the roster, the team recalled 12-year minor league veteran Jorge Padilla from Triple-A Syracuse. His first appearance with the Nats will mark his major league debut.

Padilla, 29, joins the club after batting .367 (114-for-311) with 18 doubles, three triples, four home runs, 21 RBI and 14 stolen bases in 95 games with Syracuse. An International League All-Star earlier this season, Padilla entered Tuesday's game leading the league in hitting (.367) and on-base percentage (.424).

Padilla’s 114 hits are tied for fourth most in the league and he is tied for sixth in the circuit with 58 runs.

Padilla is a lifetime .289/.356/.414 hitter in exactly 4700 minor league plate appearances. Drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the third round of the 1998 Amateur Entry Draft, Padilla has also spent time in the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals organizations.

Milwaukee Brewers 7-5 Over Washington Nationals, DC Win Streak Ends At Four.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 06:54:10 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

4 months ago: Washington Nationals center fielder Nyjer Morgan can't come up with a triple by Milwaukee Brewers' Ryan Braun during the third inning of a baseball game Wednesday, July 29, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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HEADLINE:

Nationals Lose, Win Streak Ends At Four...

I guess a fan of a 32-68 team shouldn't expect to win every night...but I thought they'd do it, or at least I hoped the Washington Nationals would beat the Milwaukee Brewers for what would have been their fifth straight win on Wednesday. It would have been the longest win streak of what seems destined to be another hundred-loss season, and the reward for last year's suffering is still unsigned, and no one is quite sure who, if anyone, will be traded, and there's just two days til the deadline, when we'll finally know...

The Nationals were up 4-0 early tonight, with Nick Johnson singling in a run in the first, and the Brewers' starter Manny Parra giving up an RBI single to the suddenly-hot Cristian Guzman before two bases loaded walks threatened to end his night in the second. Milwaukee cut the DC lead in half in the third, when Washington right-hander Garrett Mock gave up an RBI triple to Ryan Braun, who hit a hanging slider off Nyjer Morgan's glove and off the wall in center and scored on a wild pitch through Josh Bard's wickets in the next AB, and the Brewers scored another run in the fourth when Mike Cameron made Bernie Brewer take a ride down the slide, homering to deep center field and high off the oversized gas pump to make it 4-3 DC.

After Cristian Guzman doubles and The Face of The Franchise©, Ryan Zimmerman singles to score Guzman and put Washington up 5-3 in the sixth, Garrett Mock surrenders a leadoff double to Corey Hart and a follow-up single to Mike Cameron and has to watch as Tyler Clippard gets two outs on a bases-loaded run scoring double play, and then serves up a full-count change to pinch hitter Casey McGehee that ends up in the left field bullpen for a two-run blast and 6-5 Brewers' lead after six. Milwaukee adds one more run in the eighth and the Nationals go down for the 39th time.

Brewers win, 7-5 final.

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

Check Out The SB Nation's Brewers Blog...Brew Crew Ball's GameThread.

In Case Your Missed Them...Federal Baseball.com Trade Deadline Roundtables:

• Trade Nick Johnson?

• Trade The Hammer, Josh Willingham? Trade Adam Dunn?

• Joe Beimel, Willie Harris, Mike Rizzo And Stephen Strasburg.

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The JUMP...

Nationals now 32-69.

GAME REPORT:

Washington Nationals At Milwaukee Brewers. Game 101 Of 162.

Nyjer Morgan grounds out Felipe Lopez to start tonight’s game. Milwaukee lefty Manny Parra throws a two-strike fastball by DC shortstop Cristian Guzman. Josh Willingham goes the other way with a weak fly ball to short right for a two-out single. Ryan Zimmerman walks in front of Nick Johnson, and Johnson lines a trademark single to center to score Willingham and make it 1-0 DC. NJ™. Ronnie Belliard pops out behind short and it’s 1-0 DC after a half...Nyjer Morgan sprints to deep center to catch a long fly off Felipe Lopez’s bat. Craig Counsell has the Brewers’ first hit as he lines to left. Cristian Guzman fields and throws to second to Ronnie Belliard for a force on Ryan Braun’s grounder. Prince Fielder rips a sinker on the outside edge under a diving Guzman at short for a two-out single. Austin Kearns waits for a high pop from Corey Hart that ends the first.

Austin Kearns gets blown away by a two-strike fastball from Parra. Josh Bard walks in front of the pitcher. Garrett Mock bun...no he’s swinging and he singles to right on a line drive. Nyjer Morgan shoots a low liner through short to load the bases for the Guz. Cristian Guzman singles through short to score Bard, 2-0 DC. Josh Willingham K’s swinging through a fastball. Ryan Zimmerman takes a bases loaded walk and forces in the third run. 3-0 DC. Nick Johnson uses his Discerning Eye™ to walk in another run. 4-0 Nationals. Ronnie Belliard pops out on the second pitch he sees. 4-0 DC...Mike Cameron takes a leadoff walk from Mock. Nyjer Morgan takes a fly ball to right center from J.J. Hardy out of Austin Kearns’ glove as he cuts Kearns off. Brewers’ backstop Mike Rivera pops out to his counterpart behind the plate. Manny Parra pops out to Kearns in right to end the second.

Austin Kearns takes a leadoff walk. Josh Bard flies to Corey Hart in right. Garrett Mock K’s trying to bunt a 2-2 pitch from Parra. Nyjer Morgan flies out to left to end DC’s third...Ronnie Belliard fields Felipe Lopez’s grounder behind second and throws across his body to get the first out of the frame. Craig Counsell singles over second for his second hit. Ryan Braun drives one to deep center, Morgan’s at the wall, but he misses and it hits the wall. The Umps say HR, but it’s not. Replay time. No HR. Braun to third, Counsell scores. 4-1 DC. Prince Fielder up when Mock throws a sinking fastball right through Bard, Braun trots home, 4-2 DC. Fielder K’s swinging through a full-count fastball. Mock pops Corey Hart up to end the third.

Cristian Guzman grounds the first pitch to short. Josh Willingham’s first-pitch-swinging and he flies out to left. Ryan Zimmerman singles up the middle to keep the inning alive for Nick Johnson. Parra gets Johnson swinging to end the Nationals’ fourth...Mike Cameron makes Bernie Brewer take a ride down the slide, homering to deep center and high off the oversized gas pump, 4-3 DC. J.J. Hardy grounds over the first base bag and then off the stands that stick out into foul territory in right. Hardy takes second. MIlwaukee catcher Mike Rivera twists himself in a circle striking out swinging. Manny Parra K’s chasing. Felipe Lopez grounds one up the middle, but Guzman gets there and throws to first in time.

Ronnie Belliard pops out to the infield. J.J. Hardy throws from the lip of the left field grass to get Austin Kearns at first. Ryan Braun misreads a line drive to left from Josh Bard, who’s rewarded with a triple. Garrett Mock reaches out for a two-strike change that drops away to end the frame...Craig Counsell tries to pull one out of the park, but only gets to the track in right where Kearns catches it. Ryan Braun K’s staring a two-strike fastball all the way in. Mock gets a fly ball to right to end the fifth.

Prince Fielder, uh, fields a bunt from Nyjer Morgan and makes the tags halfway to first. Josh Willingham grounds weakly to short. Ryan Zimmerman lines a single up the middle on high fastball from Parra. Guzman scores from second, 5-3 DC. Parra throws an 0-2 fastball right by Nick Johnson...Corey Hart rips a double over third, Zimmerman has no chance. Mike Cameron moves Hart to third with a single to left. Mock’s done. J.J. Hardy grounds to third, Zimmerman to Belliard to Dunn, double play. Hart scores, 5-4 DC. Mike Rivera takes a two-out walk and pinch hitter Casey McGehee gets a full-count change and takes it for a ride, deep to left and GONE! Two-run blast, 6-5 Brewers. Felipe Lopez grounds out to end the frame.

Ronnie Belliard gets sawed off by Todd Coffey for the first out of the seventh. Craig Counsell backhands a hard hit grounder from Kearns, and throws to first in time. Josh Bard flies out to center and ends the DC seventh...Counsell vs Clippard in the bottom of the inning. Clippard paints the inside corner with an 89mph two-strike fastball. Ryan Braun takes a one-out walk from a wild Clippard. Sean Burnett vs Prince Fielder. Lefty vs Lefty. Burnett catches Braun off first and he’s tagged out at second. Fielder goes down looking at a fastball from Burnett.

Willie Harris gets a pinch hit chance in the eighth, and he flies out to left. Nyjer Morgan drops a bunt down the third base line and beats the throw to first. Wild pitch from Coffey gets behind the catcher and hits the ump’s leg, Morgan goes first to third as Mike Rivera retrieves it. Guzman grounds out to first. Josh Willingham grounds out to third to end the threat...Corey Hart singles to left off Logan Kensing. Hart steals second. Mike Cameron singles Hart over to third. J.J. Hardy grounds weakly to third, Zim charges and throws to first, Hart breaks for home and beats Nick Johnson’s throw from first, 7-5 Brewers. Mike Rivera lines out to Belliard at second. Kensing out. Bill Hall vs Joe Beimel. WIld pitch moves Cameron to third. Hall swings 3-0 and grounds out to end the eighth.

The Brewers bring on Trevor Hoffman to end it. Ryan Zimmerman K’s chasing a two-strike slider outside. Nick Johnson takes a 3-1 fastball for a full count. Hoffman gives up a single to center, a trademark single, NJ™. Ronnie Belliard pops out unproductively. Adam Dunn is going to hit. Dunn vs Hoffman. Dunn goes down on 3 pitches. Brewers win, 7-5 final.

Nationals now 32-69.

Washington Nationals: Trade Deadline Roundtable Part Two - Trade The Hammer, Josh Willingham? Trade Adam Dunn?

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:30:20 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

5 months ago: Washington Nationals' Adam Dunn (44) is greeted at home by Josh Willingham (16) after Dunn hit a solo home run also his career 300th homerun as Atlanta Braves catcher David Ross (8) looks on during the seventh inning of a baseball game, Saturday, July 4, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 5-3.(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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(ed. note - "I asked the Federal Baseball.com readers recently, if they'd be interested in participating in a roundtable discussion about what they expected to see happen and what the Washington Nationals should do in these last few days before the July 31, 2009 MLB Trade Deadline. What follows are the transcripts of those discussions, with myself, Ed Chigliak moderating. Now For Part Two...But First, Reintroductions..."):

Ed Chigliak: Quick Roll Call...Nationals' Fan or Old Expos' Fan, I'll Go First??

Ed Chigliak: Old Expos' Fan...

Mezza: Nats fan. Personally, I dont think two kinds of blue 'works' on a uniform.

Doghouse: Nats fan! They got me back into baseball after 15+ years away from the game.

John: I'm a Nats fan. I grew up in the area, and I went to Orioles games on occasion, but they never felt like the home team.

Martins: Nats Fan, love the dynamic of the team this year. They are the last place team that is much better than a last place team!

Graysnail: Old Expos fan who somehow ended up where the Nats are. Not sure how that happened.

Jim: Old Expos fan who longs for the glory days of the early 1990s.

AFTER THE JUMP...

• Ed Chigliak: Josh Willingham Hasn't Been Hotter, But "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo Has Stated That "The Hammer" Is Part Of The Future, Would You Trade Willingham?

• Ed Chigliak: • Is There Any Way Washington Trades Adam Dunn?

Ed Chigliak: Josh Willingham Hasn't Been Hotter, But "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo Has Stated That "The Hammer" Is Part Of The Future, Would You Trade Willingham?

Mezza: Trade em all and let God sort it out! I like Hammer and I think he's got a future in the game. But he is playing in a position where there are about 5 players in the organi(z)ation that can play this position. We simply HAVE to move one of them at trade time or we're in the same position at the start of the season... a lopsided team, with too much in one position...not enough in others. Hammer is the best chance at genuine prospects.

Doghouse: He's batting 298/410/596 (a teeth-rattling 160 OPS+), and is only four runs below average with the glove in a corner OF spot. He's having a career season, sitting comfortably in the top ten in the NL in total win value among outfielders (between Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Beltran). According to fangraphs, that's worth $12M a year--but he's getting a hair under $3M and has two seasons of team control left. I'd love to see the Hammer in the OF for next couple of seasons, but he's our best shot for getting ML-ready talent. I wouldn't sell cheap, but I'd cash in the Hammer for the right package of prospects.

John: Again, no player is off limits, but I'd like to see Grand Slam Willingham stick around. He seems to be a good guy (at least, he behaved himself when he was mic'd for that one game) and could offer leadership for a younger Nationals team. He's 30, making him one of the oldest Nationals I'd like to see the front office keep. He commits fewer errors than Dunn, and his bat is (almost) comparable. He's shown what he can do when given regular at bats, so let's see what he does and if need be, the Nats can dump him next year.

Martins: In my mind, this is the player that has to be dealt. If the idea behind making a good trade is selling high, then dealing Josh Willingham would be the textbook example of a good trade. As of right now, Josh Willingham is slugging an unfathomable .596(!) His career slugging Percentage is .489.This means he is slugging at a clip more than 100 points higher than his career percentage. This cannot continue, it just isn't possible. A .600 slugging percentage is reserved for the very best players in the game, and while Josh Willingham is a nice player, he certainly isn't one of the best. The on base percentage numbers are not as glaring, but they too have shown a significant increase, ( 42 points, from .368 in his career, to .410 this year). Coming into this season, Josh had 1,422 ABs under his belt, so it's not as though this is a conclusion drawn based on a small sample of numbers. We know what kind of player Josh Willingham is, and this isn't it. Sell him high and get the pitching this team desperately needs.

Graysnail: Absolutely. Willingham's 29, under team control for a couple more seasons, and is having his best season to boot. There's a heck of a lot of value in his skillset right now, and unloading him would be a pretty slick move. Remember that the Nats have Elijah Dukes killing time in AAA until a roster spot gets freed up, so while there would be a dropoff, it'd be comparatively slight when you take into account Willingham may slide back. He's turned into a legitimate player, and as such should fetch a decent, but not great, haul in a trade.

The problems with Willingham are twofold: A) everyone knows it's a career year; B) his defense will regress. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't quite fetch what we'd expect because of that if he moved.

Jim: I'll echo everyone else's comments a bit. With the exception of a 24-year-old All-Star third baseman and the handful of pitchers who are under 25 and not even arbitration eligible, everyone is available. The most important thing to realize is that, while the media has been trying to play Willingham up as a nice "cheap bench" bat available on the trade market, his production and contract status (under control for two more seasons. Likely to remain under $5 million in 2010) combine to make him the most expensive trade chip that the Nationals have.... by a significant margin! Basically, my stance is that if they can trade him and get above market value (the huge prospect haul hoped for above), then Rizzo should pull the trigger. If other GMs aren't willing to pay for the fact that he's cost-controlled for two more seasons and pay like this isn't a complete outlier of a season, the Nats should hold onto him and continue to explore the markets with Dunn and Johnson more heavily.

Ed Chigliak: Is There Any Way Washington Trades Adam Dunn?

Mezza: YES! That sly dog Rizzo was just playing the old 'we wont trade our big hitter' game. Dont be fooled. Should the Giants line up a couple of stud pitchers (or a great position players), Rizzo will pull the trigger quicker than an Austin Kearns at bat.

Doghouse: Dunn is not like a box of chocolates, but the prospects we get in return will be. We'll be giving up 40/100 (and -2 wins with the glove) for ??? I think the "???" could be pretty exciting, especially from an AL team. 278/405/554 with 25 long balls and 73 RBIs so far (plus TEH SP33D GAME!)? Heck yeah, man! That's gotta be worth something good, and I think Rizzo takes it if he gets an offer. Roll the dice!

John: I'm not sure if it'll actually happen, but I'd like to see Dunn dealt. Like Mezza, I'm hoping that Rizzo was bluffing with that whole "he's off limits thing," and like Doghouse, I think what the Nats could get in return (particularly from an AL team) is exciting. I could see him traded for a few younger fielders -- it's not like there's a shortage of capable OF players on the Nationals roster right now. They may not quite bring the bat that Dunn does, but his bat is why he'd be traded. Dunn belongs in the AL.

Martins: Absolutely not. The reason is a succinct and simple one. There is no way to replace what you lose in an Adam Dunn. Name me another hitter in the game who will hit you 40 homeruns a year, every year. Give up? Me too. Know why? There isn't one. With home runs come RBI, and that equals run production. Now, don't get me wrong, his defense is definitely a problem. But he clearly is a hard working guy, and I believe he will improve his defense, at least to the point where you can live with it. (I think his offensive prowess outweighs his defensive struggles, but I know some of you don't) Remember, when talking trades, you have to take into account not only what the player gives you, but what the player can potentially give someone else. If you trade Adam Dunn to a contender right now he helps clinch a playoff birth, that's the bottom line. Whether or not you believe Adam Dunn helps your team, the fact of the matter is you will not get equal value for his bat. It's a no win trade.

Graysnail: Hey, why not? His contract's not god-awful, and his skill set isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He's doing right about what you'd expect from him, maybe a little better, so an AL team with a need for a power bat could look his way. Were Bavasi still in Seattle, I'd be wanting Rizzo to pull a Cable Guy on his voicemail; unfortunately, I don't think his skillset translates there, Seattle's falling out of contention, the new front office values defense, and they've already got one guy who can't play the field. As it is, maybe a team like the Twins takes a shot.

Bonus: Dunn may actually bring another quality SP prospect. Aside from Willingham, I don't think anyone else on this team could do that.

Jim: While Willingham's contract status combined with his production should be what warrants the best (actual) return, the perceptions of the media as well as the name often fetch quite a price as well. Forget the glove, and forget the mention that Dunn is having a very good season. That's not true. Dunn is having the best season with the bat that he's ever had. Don't believe me?

His career line is .249/.383/.521. His career best batting average was .266 (2004... the only season that compares to his current 2009 line). His career best OBP is .400 (his first full season in 2002). His career best slugging percentage (by 15 points) is .569 (also 2004). Look at 2009, though. Dunn's current .280 batting average is 14 points better than his career best. His current .410 OBP is ten points better than his career best. His current .562 Slugging Percentage is just off the pace. His .972 OPS is sixteen points higher than his best season. He's having a career year with the bat!

All of this adds up to him probably having more perceived value than Willingham on the trade market, though I'm convinced that Willingham has more actual value. If Rizzo can get the package that his perceived value demands (or even his actual value), I think he has to take it. My preference would be to see the team trade both Dunn (highest perceived value) and Johnson (not at peak value, but not of much use going forward. May fetch about what most teams think they can trade for Willingham) and hold onto the Hammer.

End Part Two.

• Round Table Part Three of Three: Joe Beimel? Willie Harris? "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo's Future? Strasburg Talk? @ 12:00 pm EST.