SB Nation - Jon Rauch

The 2009 'Pitties: Unsung Hero

Jim McLennan — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:00:32 -0000

Two of our Unsung Heroes nominees combine: Ryan Roberts singles, scoring Augie Ojeda from third base, against the Astros on Aug. 23.

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Before we head into the next set of nominations, should quickly mention that the Game of the Year award went to the 18-inning marathon against the Padres on June 7th. At five hours, 45 minutes, the longest in franchise history for more than eight years, with the teams combining to use 18 hurlers who threw 592 pitches. Can't really argue with that: it was definitely a memorable contest: as the guy in charge of writing the recap, my major feeling was relief that it was an afternoon game, not an evening one...

We move on to the fourth in our series of awards, for the Unsung Hero of the year. This is the player who made a significant contribution to the team, yet did not receive the appropriate acknowledgment - be that from the media as a whole, or here on the 'Pit - for the services rendered.

Juan Gutierrez: 71 IP,1.5 WAR

Leading the team in pitching appearances and innings of relief work, Gutierrez in 2009 helped make the trade of Jose Valverde look like a good one for the Diamondbacks. The rookie made 65 appearances, and posted an ERA+ of 113 - only two NL relievers aged 25 and younger worked seventy innings with a better ERA+ [Luke Gregerson and Jonathan Broxton]. Outside of a bad ten days in June, when he allowed nine runs in 2.1 innings, his ERA was barely three, and Gutierrez gave up only two home-runs all year - to Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so hardly an embarrassment. After the loss of Chad Qualls at the end of August, Juan became the de facto closer, going a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances, and ending the Diamondbacks' season with a perfect ninth in Wrigley on only ten pitches.

Augie Ojeda: 9.6 UZR, 1.5 WAR

It'd be easy to look at Ojeda's offensive numbers - .246/.340/.345, with one homer and 16 RBI in 103 games - and see a complete waste of roster space. But that would severely undervalue Ojeda's contribution to the team, especially on defense. There. Ojeda's UZR rating, combined across three positions, was the second-best on the roster, more than twice as much as any other infielder for the 2009 Diamondbacks. In 489.1 innings between second-base and short-stop, Augie committed just three errors, for a fielding percentage of .988..He was perfect at 2B, and only two major-leaguers played more innings there without an error [Craig Counsell and Nick Punto]. Last year, he was paid $712K; fangraphs.com valued him overall at $6.9m. No wonder the team is looking at bringing Augie back.

Jon Rauch: 54.1 IP, 110 ERA+ (Arizona only)

The odds of Rauch being nominated for any kind of award seemed very bleak after the opening month of the 2009 season: over his first fourteen appearances, opponents were hitting him at a .340 clip, and his ERA was 9.00. However, the seriously unsung Blowfish managed to turn it around, impressing fans not just with his pitching ability, but also the excellent character he displayed, such as pitching both ends of the Florida double-header, getting a save in the nightcap. His ERA the rest of the way with the Diamondbacks was a very respectable 2.91, and many people were sorry to see him traded to the Twins. There, he was a crucial part of Minnesota's surge to the AL Central title, allowing three runs in seventeen games down the stretch.

Ryan Roberts: 100 OPS+, 2.0 WAR

Only three Arizona players with 75+ PAs had a higher OPS+ than Roberts - getting regular games for the first time in his career, his overall numbers were also better than those of his middle-infield colleagues Stephen Drew (89) and Felipe Lopez (98). Ryan stepped it up following the departure of his heavily-tattoed team-mate, hitting .290/.374/.465 after becoming the regular second-baseman, and earning the right to have a shot at the starting job there in 2010. Roberts was Mark Reynolds' main back-up at 3B, and made a dozen starts in right-field too - using Vernon Wells' glove - to give the team a right-handed hitter out there, rather than lefties Gerardo Parra, Alex Romero or Trent Oeltjen. All this, and Roberts also became a father for the first time in August.

As a side-note, anyone know whether Ryan Roberts still qualifies as a rookie or not? I know this sounds surprising - he is 29 now, after all! - but he certainly didn't have enough PA's before this year. It's harder to tell whether he hit the pre-September limit on roster days (45); unless he was sitting on the roster without playing, I'm not inclined to think so. Though he isn't listed as a rookie on ESPN's rookie stats, that isn't really definitive. I'm just trying to work out whether he should be listed as a nominee for the next Pittie.

Poll

Who was Arizona's unsung hero in 2009?

Juan Gutierrez

31 votes

Augie Ojeda

20 votes

Jon Rauch

18 votes

Ryan Roberts

63 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

The 2009 'Pitties: Single-game Performance of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:18:48 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Petit tallies up the hits by Pittsburgh. He looks almost as startled as we were by the answer.

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The first 'Pittie of the 2009 season proved to be one of the closest ballots in the history of the awards, with four of the options for Play of the Year each receiving between 19-24% of the vote, and the top two choices being tied as late as Wednesday afternoon, when 130 votes had been cast. However, the final few votes meant that the Play of the Year goes to the Triple-Play against the Dodgers. Josh Wilson's time with Arizona may have been short - only 11 games - but between this and his turn on the mound, it certainly had its share of memorable moments!

We now move on to the second category. After the jump, we'll revisit the five best single-game performances of the 2009 season by a Diamondback - and also see why, curiously, Roger Cedeno is connected to more than one of them! The links in the header go to the game recap, in a new browser window, so you can relive the performance there when considering your vote.

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine straight frames, June 7 vs. SDP
This game was nearly an awful example of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Leading 6-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls allowed five runs to blow the game. In extra innings, the offense didn't help, being blanked for eight straight frames before Mark Reynolds homered off pinch-pitcher Josh Wilson in the 18th. But fortunately for Arizona, Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada + Leo Rosales were magnificent, allowing no hits from the 10th through the 18th, effectively pitching a no-hit complete game. Rosales finally got the win, retiring the last ten Padres.
Dan Haren goes fishing for Marlins, July 10 vs. FLA
The best-pitched game of the season by a Diamondback, as measured by Game Score, was Dan Haren's complete-game shutout of Florida just before the All-Star break [Haren had #2 and #3 on the list too]. It was also tied for the eighth-best Game Score in the National League this season. The four-hit gem featured one walk and ten strikeouts. After a single and wild pitch to lead off the game, the Marlins managed to get only one other runner past first-base the rest of the way. Haren also added a hit, driving in a run with an infield single in the fourth, and came around to score on a home-run by Felipe Lopez.

Yusmeiro Petit takes no-hitter into 8th inning, August 4 vs. PIT
Just for comparison, I don't think Brandon Webb has ever had a no-hitter through five innings, let alone allowing zero hits through the front seven. Of all the D-backs pitchers, you'd have got long odds against Petit coming closer to a no-hitter than anyone since the Big Unit's perfect game in 2004. But he completely blanked the Pirates offense, giving up only three walks before Roger Cedeno singled with no outs in the eighth. Petit retired the next three batters to finish strong, with eight shutout innings and threw 108 pitches, a dozen more than in any major-league game for his career.

Chris Young smacks three homers in a game, September 6 vs. COL
With homers in the second, sixth and eighth, Young became the eighth Diamondbacks to homer three times in a game. It was a startling performance as he'd only had two long balls in his previous fifty appearances combined, going all the way back to June 13th. According to Hit Tracker Online, the home-runs totaled 1,252 feet, almost a quarter-mile. Chris had a chance to go deep again in the ninth against Matt Herges, but the Rockies' hurler walked Young instead - not often you'll see a home pitcher being greeted with disapproval by the crowd for not giving up a home-run!
Justin Upton goes 5-for-5, September 16 vs. SDP
Upton became the 13th Diamondbacks to collect five hits in a game, and the first to do it on the road since Danny Bautista in April 2004 - that he did it in one of the most hitter-unfriendly parks in the league, Petco, makes the feat all the more impressive. He doubled in the first, singled in the fourth, and tripled in the sixth, giving him two chances at the cycle, but could 'only' single in the seventh and ninth. Just two players younger than Upton have gone 5-for-5 in a game, since Cal Ripken did it as a 21-year old in 1982 (Alex Rodriguez and Cedeno - yep, him again! - both in 1996).

Poll

What was the best single-game performance for Arizona in 2009?

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine innings

38 votes

Haren's complete-game shutout of the Marlins

18 votes

Petit takes no-hitter of the Pirates into 8th

20 votes

Young hits three homers vs. the Rockies

13 votes

Upton goes 5-for-5 against the Padres

12 votes

101 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part V: The Bullpen

Jim McLennan — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 20:15:35 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Somehow, this pic - Qualls yelling to the bench for help after hurting his knee against Houston - sums up the bullpen's entire season...

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The Arizona bullpen allowed 271 runs and finished the season with a 4.61 ERA, both numbers which put them ahead only of Washington among National League relief corps. We've previously discussed the waking nightmare which was the eighth inning, but it's also worth taking a look at the numbers posted by the bullpen in general. How do they stack up in total? What were the issues? How might things have gone, and where do we go from here?

FIP vs. ERA
On straight ERA, as noted above, our relievers were pretty bad, even when you adjust for park factor. However, the underlying performance numbers weren't quite as horrendous. Arizona relievers had a combined line of .264/.338/.395, which is an sOPS+ of only 101, not too much worse than average. Fangraphs.com's FIP stat goes even further: the D-backs FIP was 4.02 - sixth-best in the league - with the biggest gap between that and 'actual' ERA of any team in the National League. This explains why they rated our pen at 36.1 runs above replacement, not just above average, but very close to the number (39.4) posted by the "lights out" 2007 bullpen.

The only two relievers with 10+ innings, to have a FIP higher than their ERA were Clay Zavada (FIP 3.92) and Blaine Boyer (3.34), both of which make sense. Zavada certainly benefited from the lucky scoreless streak which opened his career - his ERA the rest of the way was 5.34. And Boyer is obviously not the 2.68 ERA pitcher he was with Arizona: if he was anything like that, the Cardinals wouldn't have dumped him. Still, even if they deliver their FIP numbers in 2010, I don't think we'll mind too much. The other eight relievers all had FIP better than their ERA, the amount ranging from 0.07 (yeah, Scott Schoeneweis was as bad as he looked) to 1.06 for Juan Gutierrez.

There are various reasons why FIP can differ. It's based purely on home-runs, strikeouts and walks: you might think, "Hang on - the number of hits that stay in the park is irrelevant?" But the problem there, is that those do depend on the defense, so are not a good measure of pitching ability. I'll go into more detail about our glovework in the final part of this series, but Arizona's defensive efficiency - the percentage of balls turned into outs - was below average. If it seems counter-intuitive that you put H, K and HR into a mathematical blender and get a number that means anything, studies have shown that FIP is a better indicator of future performance than ERA.

Win Probability
However, the Hardball Times Win Probability Added is less convinced, saying our relievers cost Arizona 2.81 wins, this year ahead only of Pittsburgh and Washington. This is the same Win Probability we graph after every game; the winning team has 0.5 of a win to divide up, and the losers -0.5 blame. Over the entire season, our hitters "cost" Arizona 6.53 wins, and our starting pitching 1.67. [The total, not by coincidence, is 11, the number we were below .500] However, you should remember the value of a performance is radically dependent on when it happens. As Dave Studeman points out, "If a player hits a home run in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, he is credited with more WPA points than if he hits a home run in the first inning of a 1-0 game."

The late innings will tend to have more leverage as a result, though given the bullpen threw about half the innings of the starters, to be "responsible" for more losses than the rotation isn't good. Still, the implication is that the offense was a bigger problem for the team in 2009 than the pitching in total. For context, it 2008, the bullpen WPA was -1.16 wins and in 2007, it was a stunning +7.48 victories. This is likely a reflection of the huge number of close contests in which that team was involved. Almost one-third (52) were decided by one-run, and when you get into the late innings of such games, every out has a very significant impact on Win Probability.

Was the bullpen overtaxed?
Not apparently. The average team saw 2,184 PAs dealt with by their relievers last season; Arizona saw fractionally less than that, at 2,122 - it clearly helped to have one of the most durable starters in the league, in Dan Haren, whose IP/start was 6.95, fourth-best in the league. Jon Garland (6.18, 24th) and Doug Davis (5.98, 34th) were also above the NL-average of 5.82. The Diamondbacks were also the least-likely team to use a reliever on back-to-back days: this happened only 80 times, the most common subjects being Gutierrez and Rauch, each eleven times. However, the results of such outings were good, with a 3.67 ERA.

The only reliever who worked more than 55 innings for the Diamondbacks was Gutierrez, who threw 71 innings [Rauch and Tony Peña were both around the same for the year, combining the totals for their two teams], which was not enough to put him among the top thirty 'pure' relievers in the majors. By appearances, his 65 games was only ranked #70, though Rauch ended up =13th by that metric. Arizona were right in the middle of the pack with regard to asking our relievers to get more than three outs too, so overall, workload doesn't appear to have been much of an issue for the bullpen as a whole.

Inherited issues
What did seem to be a problem was the bullpen's problem with inherited runners. Across the league, 30% of inherited runners scored, but for the Diamondbacks' relievers, that number was 38%, the worst figure in the NL. Only two relievers were below league average, and that fractionally: Scott Schoeneweis and Leo Rosales both came in at 29%, and the brevity of the former's appearances were likely a factor. From there, things only get worse, all the way up to Blaine Boyer (8 of 17 inherited runners scored, 47%) and Daniel Schlereth (7 of 12, 58%). Obviously, while we are talking small sample size here, and not all inherited runners are created equal, the overall numbers are significant enough to indicate a problem.

The Arizona bullpen: anti-clutch in action
A major driving factor in a pitcher's ERA will be how they perform with runners in scoring position - as we saw with Doug Davis this year, you can get away with allowing a lot of base-runners, as long as you don't let them get past third-base. This was something our bullpen didn't do last season. The Diamondbacks' OPS for their relievers across all situations in 2009 was .734: they can be divided into three groups by their performance with runners in scoring position (min. 30 such PAs):

    Significantly better: Leo Rosales (.653), Tony Peña (.655), Esmerling Vasquez (.686)
    There or thereabouts: Chad Qualls (.728), Juan Gutierrez (.730),
    Significantly worse: Blaine Boyer (.779), Jon Rauch (.853), Clay Zavada (.959), Scott Schoeneweis (1.078), Daniel Schlereth (1.192)

This would explain the high ERA; not just the raw number of pitchers, but the disparity. We had four relievers whose OPS was 100 points or more worse than bullpen average, when they had runners in scoring position, compared to none who were that much better. Avoiding such a skewed result in 2010 will certainly help. Harder to say whether it's something that can be addressed, or is just a question of waiting for regression to the mean.

What might have been
The front-office got criticism for letting Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz walk at the end of 2008, and it's fair to say that the arms they brought to Arizona instead, Schoeneweis and Tom Gordon, were dismal failures. Admittedly, the former's problema could in no way have been foreseen, and completely derailed the year. Before his wife's death, Scott had an ERA of 2.53; after, it exploded to 10.80. But in the final analysis, he is just another in a long line of disappointing LOOGY's brought in by the team: see also Randy Choate, Mike Myers, Eddie Oropesa, etc. Since Myers in 2002, no free-agent southpaw reliever has had an ERA+ above 100 for Arizona.

Gordon was a low-risk roll of the die, but even at that, it must have been disappointing to get no more than 1.2 innings and a 21.60 ERA from the veteran. He only cost $600K, but one assumes the budget included the maximum Gordon may have earned, $3m. Between the price of him and Schoeneweis ($2m), the team could certainly have done better. Looing at the players we let go, Juan Cruz signed a two-year, $6m contract with the Royals, but had an ERA of 5.72, with a strikeout rate almost cut in half (from 12.4 K/9 to 6.4). Allowing Cruz to walk now seems wise, and Kansas City will be hoping for much better in 2010.

At first glance, Brandon Lyon was excellent with the Tigers, holding opponents to a .205 average and posting a 2.86 ERA, that seemed to justify fully his $4m deal, and likely sets him up for a big pay-day this winter. However, Lyon did have a freakishly-low BABIP of .229, leading to a FIP above four - the difference put him in the top 20 among major-league relievers. Still, signing him for $4m and getting anything like his actual performance would have been a much better deal for Arizona than Gordon and Schoeneweis.

2010?
From statements so far, it does appear that one or more arms will be added to the bullpen in the off-season. We'll be discussing this in more detail in due course, but I imagine the core is alreay present, in Qualls, Gutierrez, Vasquez and Zavada. Boyer and Schlereth would also seem to have a potential role, though use of the latter in high-leverage situations still concerns me. I still wouldn't mind us spending $5 million or so of the estimated $28m available on a couple of decent arms: I think "reliable" is the key-word there. Rather than us taking a risk on anyone like Gordon, we want someone who we know will contribute.

The last installment of this series will follow, probably next Monday. There, we'll be looking at defense and base-running, and their impact on the team's performance last season.

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part IV: The Eighth-inning Retch

Jim McLennan — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Jon Rauch waits for the bases to clear after giving up a a three run homer to Travis Ishikawa during the eighth on August 25 in San Francisco. Or "business as usual," as we called the eighth inning in Arizona.

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Arizona fans will have nightmares about the eighth inning for most of the winter. The team allowed 120 runs there, 15 more than the next worst frame. Two particularly savage meltdowns come to mind. On June 2nd in Los Angeles, seven stellar innings of one-run ball by Dan Haren and a 5-1 lead were undone in the space of three outs from Tony Peña and Daniel Schlereth, as the Dodgers scored five times. And then, on July 9th at Chase, the Marlins inflicted the first ten-spot on us since August 2005, sending fourteen men to the plate as the Diamondbacks blew a seven-run lead for the first time in franchise history.

While perhaps the worst incidents, those were far from the only times the eighth inning proved troublesome. On no less than eighteen occasions, Arizona's opposition scored three times or more: no team in the majors had a worse inning this year. After the jump, we'll break down the numbers, see what kind of impact it had on our W-L record, and who were the guilty men in the bullpen.

To some extent, the reputation of the eighth inning exceeds the reality. While I know it probably didn't feel that way, the vast majority of the time (in 106 games), our pitching staff posted a mundane, competent zero. And despite the high number of runs allowed, the team wasn't actually all that much worse at blowing late-inning leads than average. The graph below shows our win percentage (the lower line) when ahead at the end of an inning, compared to MLB average (the upper line).

If there's a problem here, it seems to have been our issue keeping first-inning leads, not going into the eighth. The 2009 Diamondbacks actually had a losing record there, going 16-20 when they ended the opening frame up. In comparison, MLB teams won better than two of three overall. Of course, this doesn't say, when the leads were lost. However, after shrinking then remain constant from the second through the fifth, the gap gradually narrows. In the eighth inning, we won when ahead 86.2% of the time, compared to MLB average 90.6%. That translates only to about 2.6 less victories than expected.

Looking closer, there's no denying the eighth inning sucked for our pitchers, but it didn't often cost us the lead. We were ahead 58 times going into the eighth - in 53 of those games, we still had the lead leaving it. It may have been a smaller lead, certainly, but that's still a better 'save percentage' than any other frame bar the ninth. However, when you include tied games in the equation, the balance shifts dramatically. Of the nineteen times Arizona were tied at the start of the dreaded eighth, they led after it only twice - they were still tied eight times, and were behind nine. Given our record when trailing at that point was 2-85, those deficits almost certainly became losses.

The numbers in the eighth were startling, especially when compared to the seventh: batting average increased from .254 to .295, though this may largely be explained by an increase in BABIP from a reasonable .302 to .335. Equally as responsible for the spike in opposition scoring are the 19 home-runs allowed. While far from the most given up by our pitchers (that'd be the 32 during the fourth), 47.4% of the eighth-inning blasts came with men on base - including the only grand-slam we allowed in 2009, off Clay Zavada by Angel Pagan, in Citi Field on August 1st. That compares to 38.7% of our homers overall. The same goes for hits with men in scoring position: the opposition batted .267 there overall, but in the eighth, the figure increased to .338.

So, the numbers there were a combination of factors: bad luck in BABIP, inability to keep the ball in the park, especially with runners on base, and clutch hitting by the opposition. Let's now break it down and see which of our pitchers were most often used in the eighth inning, and then take a look and see how they did. Put another way: "Hooray! I get to use another diagram!" And here it is:

Jon Rauch, Juan Gutierrez and Peña were the main workhorses, combining for 38.2% of the plate-appearances. Rauch was substantially the least effective of the trio, with an .820 OPS against, compared to .744 for Gutierrez and a very-impressive line from Vasquez, .181/ .298/.236. That's a .534 OPS, with no home-runs and three extra-base hits in 72 at-bats. At the other end of the spectrum, two whose numbers stood out in a bad way: Blaine Boyer and Scott Schoeneweis. The former was hit at a .396 clip in the eighth, but in mitigation, this was with a ..438 BABIP, and he allowed only four extra-bases and no homers. Not so Schoeneweis: his performance was 19-for-50 with four home-runs, for an OPS of 1.076.

The good news is, I am disinclined to expect a re-occurrence in 2010. To start with, there'll be no Schoeneweis, Rauch and Peña, and with regard to the eighth, the first two in particular were more problem than solution. A return of BABIP and opposition clutch towards more normal levels is also likely. However, avoiding multi-run homers and sound defensive baseball would also be helpful - not that there is anything particular different about the eighth inning, compared to any other. That said, I think I won't be alone in feeling pangs of concern until Gutierrez, Vasquez, Zavada or whoever gets to work the inning next year, shows that it's just a number between seven and nine.

I'll hold over a more general analysis of our bullpen numbers this year until next time. :-)

The Bottom Line: Twins Struggle to Hold Leads VS Yankees

Jesse — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:04:47 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano throws during the first inning of Game 3 of the American League division baseball series against the New York Yankees on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Twins 1, Yankees 4

Every game of this series saw the Twins take a lead. In game one it was 2-0. In game two it was 1-0...and then 3-1. Tonight it was 1-0, again. And with the exception of game one, which was all Yankees all the time after the top of the third inning, games two and three could have been won by the Twins if only they could lock it down.

Nick Blackburn pitched very well in game two. And back home, Carl Pavano pitched an absolute gem in game three. Pavano struck out nine Yankee hitters in seven innings, walked nobody and allowed just five hits. Sadly, two of those hits came in the top of the seventh, when Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada each went deep.

Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares each walked a batter in the ninth, loading the bases for Joe Nathan with just one out. Nick Punto ignored a stop sign and was thrown out as he tried to dive back to third base. Jason Kubel upped his strikeout total to nine in the series. It's hard not to be a little bitter right now, to not have a sour taste in your mouth, but if you're looking to point a finger for the outcome of this series it can only be pointed at the team we love. And somehow, that makes it even worse.

It was a spectacular season. And that's all I'm going to say for tonight. No analysis, no name-calling, no wallowing in misery. The Minnesota Twins are the AL Central Division champions, and they played their tails off to earn that title. But the fact that I feel like I do only goes to show me how much this team means to me, and I already know that by tomorrow morning I'll be looking forward to the off-season, with the hope that next year...next year...might be the season we finally bring home the World Series trophy.

Congratulations to the New York Yankees, who advance to the ALCS. They made the plays they needed to make, and they took advantage of every single mistake the Twins made in this series. Which is exactly what you expect a championship-caliber team to do, big market or small markeet. Or mid-market, in Minnesota's case.

Thanks for a great season, everybody. I'll see you tomorrow.

Stars of the Game
Joe Mauer: Playing the role of MVP, Joe picked up the Twins' lone RBI of the night.
Denard Span: Two hits for the leadoff guy, along with a stolen base. Solid night.
Michael Cuddyer: A pair of hits for Cuddles, who also had a strong night.
Matt Guerrier: A big scoreless eighth inning.
Carl Pavano: Seven innings of fantastic ball, it was the best I've seen him all year. I definitely would like to see him back next season.

Tears
Nick Punto: After starting a rally with a leadoff double in the eighth, he ran through a stop sign from Scott Ulger on Span's chopper up the middle. It killed a rally the team desperately needed.
Brendan Harris: Hitless in big spots tonight.
Jose Morales: Looked overmatched at times; still looking forward to seeing him as Joe's backup next season.
Jason Kubel: Overmatched at all times. Nine strikeouts in the series with three more tonight. Extremely disappointing, sorry Patches.
Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares: Walking the bases loaded, with the team on the ropes. It doesn't get any worse than that, it really doesn't.

Respect
Alex Rodrigez: I hate the fact that you're such a great ballplayer. I liked him before he came to New York. Like a lot of players.
Andy Pettitte: Pitched a great game. One of the all-time great post-season pitchers.
Mariano Rivera: Continues to amaze, even at this point of his career. His buzz-saw of Mauer to end the Minnesota threat in the eighth was sick.

Poll

Where does your allegience lie for the ALCS?

New York Yankees

139 votes

Los Angeles Angels

274 votes

Actually, a team from the NL

92 votes

505 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Diamondbacks: what the heck happened?

Jim McLennan — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:00:17 -0000

Worst Case Scenario… Arizona battles with Colorado for third place.
-- Baseball Digest Daily Team Preview, March 15, 2009

The above is a measure of how badly things went for our team this year: the "worst case scenario" suggested, would be something for which we would now be more than happy to settle. It's comforting to realize that I am far from the only person to have seen their high expectation for the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks mercilessly dashed. Virtually every pundit I could locate online predicted us to have a winning record - the respected Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections had the team all the way up at 88 wins, and they weren't alone.

Other sites predicted 86 wins; 85 wins, 84 wins, 88 wins, 83 wins for Arizona, and even CHONE, the most pessimistic I could find at 79 wins, had us finishing only three games back of the Dodgers. From a more fan-based perspective, in our pre-season poll, of approaching three hundred participants, only 12% predicted the Diamondbacks would have less than eighty victories, never mind struggling to reach seventy. Not quite the same realm as the chairman of DEC saying "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home," but why were so many people - neutral observers, with no vested interests or rose-colored fandom glasses - so completely wrong? Why was there such a gulf between expectations and reality? After the jump, we'll break down some numbers - here are Josh Byrnes and AJ Hinch talking about the season that's just finished.

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

Injuries
Let's not kid ourselves. The loss of Brandon Webb was a devastating blow to the Diamondbacks in 2009, as much because it was completely unexpected to us. After all, over the previous five season, he had never made less than 33 starts per year. To be reduced from that, at an ERA+ of 140 to a single, ineffective outing was clearly a huge factor in the team's underperformance. How much?

Let's look at Webb's record in 2005, 2006 and 2008, when the total number of runs scored by the team (696, 712 and 720) were close to this year, when it's exactly the same as 2008, at 720. In those three years, Webb's collective ERA was 3.31 - one tick above the number posted last season - and his average W/L record was 17-9, with the team going 19-14 in his starts This seems a reasonable estimate for what we "should" have got from Webb this year, assuming run support approximately matching those hundred starts, and an ERA consistent with last year.

Instead of him, there was the Quadruple-headed Beast of Webb-Replacement Suck: Bryan Augenstein, Yusmeiro Petit, Billy Buckner and Kevin Mulvey. While Buckner has, of late, looked a semi-credible back-end candidate for 2010, this has been the exception, rather than the rule. In their first 33 starts, that quartet had an ERA of 6.24, went 5-18 and the team posted a record of 9-24 - ten games worse than that we could realistically have expected from 33 Webb starts. Even using a more conservative estimate - Fangraph.com's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) - we find that Webb in 2008 was worth six wins to Arizona - the four-pack of replacements plus Webb in 2009 rated only 0.3 wins in 33 starts, 5.7 less. I'd split the difference between the two methods and say Webb's injury cost us eight wins

We should also consider the unfortunate loss of Conor Jackson to valley fever, which basically meant he had the entire season written off. No real way to measure his input except by using WAR. This tells us there's a difference of 4.5 wins between what we got from the SnakePit MVP in 2008 and his sub-replacement output for the team this season. So, between the loss of him and Webb, we're probably looking at a cost to the team around twelve games. That's a massive difference by itself, almost enough to have put the team into contention for the wild-card, and is not including anyone else - I believe Arizona's players missed a total of almost 800 player-games on the DL. But wait! There's more...

Trades
After it became apparent that this team was not going to be in the post-season hunt, several deals were made, sending useful pieces to other teams, generally in exchange for players who might help the team in 2010 or beyond. The players we lost would likely have helped the Diamondbacks to several more victories - albeit meaningless ones - had we retained their services for the rest of the season. From WAR, we can see what the ex-Diamondbacks did for their new teams - production which could have been in Arizona.

Of course, we need to balance against this, the production provided to Arizona this season, by what we received in return. The chart below shows the four main trades, with the WAR values given to their new teams after the trade, on both sides of the deal:

Left Arizona	WAR	To Arizona	WAR
Jon Garland	0.6	PTBNL	0.0
Felipe Lopez	2.6	Cole Gillespie Roque Mercedes	0.0
Tony Peña	0.5	Brandon Allen	-0.6
Jon Rauch	0.3	Kevin Mulvey	-0.1
TOTAL	4.0	TOTAL	-0.7

Ugh. I hope those trades work out better for us in the long-term than they did this season, because they provided absolutely nothing of value to the 2009 team. While it would be simple just to say that we would have approached five wins better, simply by hanging on to the players with whom we started the season, it probably isn't as simple as that, because of the positional changes. The replacement at second for Lopez was mostly Rusty Ryal, who was a credible +0.6 WAR in his time here. While still well short of F-Lo, who hit .320 for the Brewers over 66 games, it's enough to make me reduce the overall impact to four wins.

Almost as significant a weakening were the Peña and Rauch deals, not just for what they would have done in the 'pen but the negative impact of the players received in return. After the way Allen tore up AAA pitching, an OPS+ of 70 in more than thirty games was still disappointing. I think we'll be taking Reno numbers with a larger pinch of salt next season. Mulvey lacked control, issuing 14 free passes (a dozen walks and two hit batters) and five home-runs in only 23 innings. He'll need to do better than that, if he wants even to be our sixth starter next year - a spot at which, as noted above, Arizona blew chunks. We'll discuss the moves more in due course, I think; both Mulvey and Allen will only be 24 on Opening Day 2010, so that's in their favor.

"Bad luck"
Yeah, this may sound like a Cubs-esque cop-out, but there's some evidence to suggest the team was unlucky, and I don't just mean the lodging of fungal sports in the lungs of one of our best 2008 hitters. Baseball is a chaotic, in mathematical terms, game - in the sense that a tiny change in circumstances can have a massive effect on results. For example, a couple of millimeters difference on where the ball hits the bat, far beyond what any hitter can control consciously, may be the difference between a grand-slam and an inning-ending can of corn to the outfield. However, that requires a good deal more space, and this piece has already gone on long enough, so I'll carry any detailed analysis there forward for another day... But it's probably worth at least another three wins.

Conclusions
That brings us to a total of 19 wins lost to the Diamondbacks by factors more or less outside their control - the trades would likely not have happened had the team still been in contention, which in turn was the result of a combination of factors, including injuries and the whims of the baseball gods. It's enough to explain the entire gulf between performance and expectations, and then some.

This does not absolve the front-office from responsibility for their part in the disappointing season. Given the known issue with Webb's shoulder - which was apparently a big enough concern to stop the two sides from agreeing on a contract extension - it was particularly reckless to have no credible backup available in our pitching rotation. First-base continues to be a major black-hole of offensive production, and with the honorable exception of Dan Haren, the contract extensions awarded over the past few years have yet to bear fruit (and that's putting it mildly). Those outside the lines certainly have their share of blame.

However, even with all the self-inflicted wounds, the Diamondbacks as formulated on Opening Day 2009 would, if fully healthy and getting anything approaching normal luck, have been over .500, at the very least. Indeed, thanks to a number of everyday players surpassing expectations (Montero, Upton, Reynolds), 90 wins could conceivably have been achieved had the breaks gone minorly our way. Again, I'll analyze our actual performances more in the coming weeks, but you might find some surprises there too [here's a tidbit - the 2009 bullpen was, by at least one advanced measure, better than in 2008].

Twins Hammer and Homer Royals for the Sweep: Bring On the Tigers!

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:23:49 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel doffs his helmet to the crowd after his second three-run home run of the game off Kansas City Royals' Luke Hochevar in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009 in Minneapolis, while Denard Span makes fun of his beard. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 13, Royals 4

Do you hear that? Can you still hear it? It's the reverb from the cacophony of noise created by fans at the Dome. Why, you may ask?

Because we just forced game 163.

"BOOM!" said Jason Kubel.

"BOOM!" said Delmon Young.

"BOOM!" said Kubel, again.

"Ditto," said Delmon.

As the Detroit Tigers hung on to salvage one game from the Chicago White Sox this afternoon, the Twins were busy putting the hurt on the Kansas City Royals. It was 7-0 at the end of the third inning, with six of those runs crossing the plate stuck in Kubel's beard; a pair of three-run jacks lifted Jason to one of the best days of his career in a crucial game.

Young went deep twice of his own accord, solo shots that, "just enough" or not, certainly did the trick. His second blast put the Twins up 8-1 going into the sixth, and the game looked like it was on ice. But oh yeah, we were facing the Royals, and they have just as much fight as the Twins. Sadly for them they don't have the talent to match, but for one half of an inning, things were interesting.

Carl Pavano started on three days rest this afternoon, and he looked good. Working out of a second and third with one out situation in the second inning, he made a statement about exactly what kind of a pitcher he can be when he bears down. He worked John Buck out-in-out-in-in to induce a shallow fly-out to center that couldn't score a run, and then quickly sent down Alex Gordon as well. It was a microcosm of the game for the Royals: try as they might, it wasn't going to be good enough.

Pavano pitched around a Luis Hernandez leadoff double in the third before allowing a run in the fourth off back-to-back doubles by Alberto Callaspo and Mark Teahen. He looked strong again the fifth before falling off the table in the aforementioned sixth.

Mike Jacobs picked up a leadoff single before Callaspo tripled to bring the score to 8-2. Still Pavano battled back, striking out Teahen and inducing a Buck ground-out for out number two. Another run scored, but with the bases empty and the bullpen spare he attacked Alex Gordon.

"BOOM!", said Gordon. 8-4, hook for Pavano, enter Bobby Keppel.

Quick, ask me which pitcher I don't want to see in a game.

Keppel lasted six pitches, delivering five fastballs down the middle of the plate and a slider in the dirt. The Royals continued to jab with the left, trying to inch closer before coming in with a strong right. With runners on the corners and still just the two outs that Pavano managed, Ron Gardenhire went to Ron Mahay in order to get lefty Mitch Maier.

Mahay hit Maier.

Bases loaded, down by four and with Billy Butler at the dish, this game suddenly didn't look like such a sure shot. Gardenhire power walked to the mound for the third time that inning, stuck two fingers up Mahay's nose, pulled down, said "Get outta here you knucklehead" and then poked Mahay in the eyes. Out came Jon Rauch.

Big, surly Jon Rauch. The Jon Rauch whose tattoo changes color depending on his mood. I think it's like a mood tattoo, and today it was green. Whatever green means, it didn't bode well for the Royals. Rauch dusted in and out with a couple of breaking balls, and then attacked the outer half with two consecutive fastballs, the second of which Butler just stood and watched without flinching. Strike three, good sir.

From there things got considerably easier. In the bottom half of the sixth Denard Span walked, and then scored on an Orlando Cabrera double down the left field line. After Kubel singled in the seventh, Carlos Gomez replaced him on the bases and later scored on a Matt Tolbert (TOL-BEAR!!) double into right. In the bottom half of the eighth Span singled, and then scored on a Cabrera double down the left field line. Yes, again. Oh, and one more thing.

"BOOM!" said Cuddyer. With authori-tah.

Astoundingly the Royals actually out-hit the Twins 12-11, with the difference being that A) the Twins walked seven times and B) the Twins out-homered the Royals 5-1. That kind of thing usually makes it very easy to win.

Brian Duensing, Jesse Crain and Francisco Liriano dusted off the final three innings without allowing a run, and at the end of the afternoon the Twins had done the unbelieveable: they'd swept the Royals, and earned themselves a shot at the division title.

While the White Sox couldn't complete the miracle, it hardly seems to matter. Minnesota was written off for dead, not just by most of the baseball world but by many of their own fans. And you know what? I don't blame anyone. I don't harbor any hard feelings toward anyone for looking at the mathematical probabilities on Friday morning and saying "nope". But it was't over then, and it's not over now.

Tuesday afternoon at four the Tigers come to town to defend a crown that should be theirs. There will be no pressure on the Twins in this game--they're "not supposed" to even be there. For the second year in a row the Twins have to play game 163 to decide whether or not they are the AL Central champions, to decide whether or not they earn the right to play post-season baseball. This time the game is being played where it should be played: in the comforts of Dome.

The season plays on for at least one more glorious afternoon of baseball. And we get once last shot under the teflon sky. Are you excited? Because you sure as hell should be.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, .071 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (5.2 IP on three days rest, 8 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 R, .096 WPA)
#1: Jason Kubel (3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R, .257 WPA)

Mauer's MVP Beats Greinke's Cy Young, Twins Stave Off Comeback

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 00:12:08 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel, left, Michael Cuddyer, center and Joe Mauer, right, celebrate after scoring on a three-run double by Delmon Young off Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke in the sixth inning of a baseball game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, in Minneapolis. It was the final series in the Metrodome. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 5, Royals 4

There are no shortages of heroes in Minnesota tonight. A four-run sixth disappeared, but today the Twins weren't going to be denied.

For five and a half innings, Zack Greinke and Nick Blackburn traded zeros. The game's first hit didn't even come until Orlando Cabrera led off the bottom of the fourth, but for more than half of the contest it was a beautiful pitcher's duel. Stressful? Yes. But beautiful.

The Twins finally drew blood in the bottom of the sixth. Nick Punto drew an eight-pitch walk off Greinke to lead off the frame, before Denard "ideal leadoff guy" Span dropped down a made-to-order bunt on the first pitch he saw. With LNP standing on second base, Greinke's pitches began to sit high in the zone. He managed to get Cabrera to ground out to third base, but he wasn't able to keep Punto from advancing. With two out and the game still knotted at zero, up stepped Joe Mauer.

Greinke tried to bust Mauer up and in twice, with Joe taking atypical chances and taking cuts on them both and fouling them off. A pair of sliders just under the strike zone followed, leading to a 1-2 count before Greinke tried to come up and in with another fastball. This time, Joe did exactly what he meant to. He pulled it through the right side, and Punto finally scored to give the Twins a 1-0 lead.

Then the Royals ace came off the rails, just a little bit. Jason Kubel took an outer-half fastball and shot it down the left field line, for a moment saving Greinke from a run as it hit the turf and then bounced over the fence, keeping Mauer on third base. Then he hit Michael Cuddyer with a 94-mph fastball. For the third time in two days, the Royals loaded the bases for Delmon Young.

Maybe Greinke was feeling confident. Maybe he just didn't locate the ball where he wanted it to go. Maybe he and Miguel Olivo were over-thinking their strategy. For whatever reason, Greinke served Delmon a 95-mph first-pitch fastball somewhere between the letters and the belly button, and as everyone's favorite play-by-play guy likes to say, he didn't miss it. Young went the other way, dropping the ball into right field, clearing the bases to give the Twins a 4-0 lead.

Kansas City stuck with their man, even after Jose Morales singled on the next pitch. Even Matt Tolbert swung at the first pitch he saw, and he hit it hard. But this time the ball was blind, and Minnesota's rally came to and end. So did Greinke's afternoon.

A Mike Jacobs homer in the top of the seventh put Kansas City on the board, but it was the eighth that, if you were watching or listening or at this game, should have put the fear of the baseball gods right into you. Olivo led it off with a double, signaling the end of Blackburn's night. Jose Mijares replaced him, and I'm starting to wonder if he's inside of his own head a bit after throwing at Adam Everett on Thursday. Alex Gordon took the third fastball he saw and deposited it over the right field fence, cutting Minnesota's lead to one. Another single saw Mijares get the hook for Jon Rauch, who did his job one batter too late.

Willie Bloomquist singled, moving something called Tug Hutlett to third with no outs in the inning. Rauch got Mitch Maier to roll into a double play, but it scored the tying run. The Metrodome fell silent, and if you weren't having images of whatever playoff hopes you had crashing down in your subconscious, then I envy you. For a game that looked so well in hand to fall apart so quickly, it didn't look good.

You know who didn't care? You know who said "Get on my back, I have broad shoulders and really big dimples and the bat of a hero"? Michael Cuddyer. The same guy who Greinke nailed two innings prior watched a pair of pitches miss the zone before he decided to take a chance. Dusty Hughes threw a changeup, as straight as it could possibly be, right over the plate at about Cuddyer's knees. Cuddles turned on it, and lauched it into the home run porch in left field. He breathed life back into the season, into the team, and into the fans.

Joe Nathan struck out a pair in a perfect ninth inning to pick up save number 47, and once again the Minnesota Twins have won. It's not over yet, kids. No matter what happens tonight, tomorrow matters. And if by some miracle the Tigers lose tonight, tomorrow matters even more.

Holy crap. Can they do this?

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI, .154 WPA)
#2: Nick Blackburn (7+ IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB, .305 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-3, HR, RBI, 2 R, .245 WPA)

Twins Win Nail-Biter In 10: Delmon Young's Insurance Run the Difference

Jesse — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:13:18 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

No, listen, Nick, it was just a high-5. It meant nothing, please don't be mad. You have my heart. Give me yours.

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F10: Twins 3, Tigers 2

To use the words of fischean: One. 1. Uno.

If you wanted intense, hard-fought baseball, you got it. If you wanted big moments, pivotal mistakes and a fantastic pitcher's duel, you got that, too. Did you want a Twins win? Granted.

Nick Blackburn struggled through the first four innings, allowing the leadoff hitter to reach three of the four innings with two of those hits being a double. Yet every time the Tigers pushed, Nick pushed back. Eight base runners through the first four innings garnered the home team just a solitary run, thanks to some nice defense (a diving Orlando Cabrera and a scoop by ~~Justin Morneau~~ Michael Cuddyer) and a great play (Cuddyer to home, Joe Mauer blocking the plate and applying the tag).

Once Nick escaped the fourth, he sent down all nine hitters through his final three innings. Blackburn settled in and turned into the big game pitcher we needed him to be.

Down 0-1 in the top of the fifth the Twins finally managed to even the score, which may have helped to take the pressure off Blackburn a little bit. Matt Tolbert led off the inning with a double, earning him his new monicker: Tol-Bear. It's French. Nick Punto then attempted his first bunt of the game, a beauty, advancing Tol-Bear to third and nearly running out the throw to first himself. Denard Span-crush then allowed Tol-Beart to tag from third to knot the score.

The Twins threatened again in the top of the ninth before managing to momentarily delay the win. Alexi Casilla doubled to lead off the inning before Tol-Bear dropped down a great bunt to move him to third base. Gardy then called up the ol' squeeze play, and with Casilla already in full sprint Punto was forced to attempt a first-pitch bunt on a ball almost over his head. Popped up, Casilla doubled off third, tear off clothes gnash teeth and generally implode all over the television set.

Enter Jon Rauch being awesome, Span getting a base hit to lead off the tenth. Cue Orlando Cabrera not ending an inning but in fact giving the Twins the lead after Span advances on a wild pitch. Twice. Joe Mauer walking, Carlos Gomez putting down another successful Minnesota bunt and Delmon Young, oh yes Delmon Young, launching a ball in a lofty nature designed to score a sacrifice run. 3-1, Twins.

Of course Joe Nathan managed to make in interesting, allowing Curtis Granderson to smash a bomb before recording an out. But he locked it down and recorded save number 45, tying Eddie Guardado for the team record.

It's all down to one, for just a few hours. Next game in just over three hours, so relax now. While you can.

Stars of the Game
#3: Orlando Cabrera (1-for-5, BIG RBI, .118 WPA)
#2: Alexi Casilla (1-for-2, BIG DOUBLE, .149 WPA)
#1: Nick Blackburn (7 IP, 4 K, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 R, .321 WPA)