SB Nation - Ronnie Belliard

Making Your '00 Face: Final position player

KLSnow — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 22:00:18 -0000

With the '00's almost behind us, it's time to take a look back and work together to make a BCB All Decade team for the '00s. Each day, we'll tackle a new position, and we'll have our 25 man roster complete sometime around the 1st of the year.

Here are the players we've selected so far:

First Base: Prince Fielder
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Third Base: Bill Hall
Corner Outfield: Ryan Braun
Center Field: Mike Cameron
Corner Outfield: Geoff Jenkins
Catcher: Damian Miller
Bench IF: Craig Counsell
Bench C: Mike Rivera
Bench COF: Carlos Lee
Bench OF: Scott Podsednik

#1 SP: Ben Sheets
Closer: Francisco Cordero

Voting for our #2 starter opened yesterday and will close at 4 pm tomorrow. Today, we'll select our final bench player. Because we have a backup at every position among our first four bench players, our final bench spot can be filled by any of the remaining candidates at any position. Follow the jump for their stats, then cast your vote in the poll below.

NOTE: Because Thursday and Friday are holidays, this poll will remain open a little longer than usual. You have until Saturday at 4 pm to cast your vote.

Brady Clark

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2003-2006
Slash line as a Brewer: .284/.361/.393
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -1.1 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 5.8

Jeromy Burnitz

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2000-2001*
Slash line as a Brewer: .242/.352/.480
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: n/a**
WAR as a Brewer: 4

* - Burnitz was also a Brewer from 1996-1999, but those stats aren't reflected here.
** - FanGraphs only has UZR data dating back to 2002, so Burnitz has no data.

Henry Blanco

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2000-2001
Slash line as a Brewer: .222/.303/.268
WAR as a Brewer: 0.6

Johnny Estrada

Seasons as a Brewer: 1, 2007
Slash line as a Brewer: .278/.296/.403
WAR as a Brewer: -1

Jason Kendall

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2008-2009
Slash line as a Brewer: .244/.329/.315
WAR as a Brewer: 2.1

Russell Branyan

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2004-2005, 2008
Slash line as a Brewer: ..248/.351/.526
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -9.1 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 1.7

Jose Hernandez

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002
Slash line as a Brewer: .261/.324/.434
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +4.7 runs*
WAR as a Brewer: 5.8

* - FanGraphs only has UZR data dating back to 2002, so only Hernandez's 2002 season is included here.

Mark Loretta

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002*
Slash line as a Brewer: .281/.348/.374
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -2.7 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 1.8

* - Loretta was also a Brewer from 1995-1999, but those numbers aren't included here.
** - Again, FanGraphs only has UZR data from 2002 forward, so only Loretta's 2002 season is included here.

Ronnie Belliard

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002*
Slash line as a Brewer: .251/.327/.384
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -6.9 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 2.9

* - Belliard was also a Brewer in 1998 and 1999. All stats here only reflect his performance from 2000-2009.
** - FanGraphs only has UZR dating back to 2002, so Belliard's 2000 and 2001 performances are not reflected in this total.

Keith Ginter

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2002-2004
Slash line as a Brewer: .257/.344/.448
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -0.9 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 3.1

Eric Young

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2002-2003
Slash line as a Brewer: .271/.340/.392
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -6.7 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 2.6

Junior Spivey

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2004-2005
Slash line as a Brewer: .256/.337/.400
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +8.2 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 1.2

Richie Sexson

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2000-2003
Slash line as a Brewer: .276/.366/.536
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -10.6 runs*
WAR as a Brewer: 10.2

* - FanGraphs only has UZR data since 2002, so this number does not reflect Sexson's 2000 and 2001 performances.

Lyle Overbay

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2004-2005
Slash line as a Brewer: .289/.376/.464
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -12.3 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 4.6

Making Your '00 Face: Our first backup infielder

KLSnow — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:00:18 -0000

The concept here is pretty simple. Each day, I'll give you a list of candidates: For position players, it's the full list of players who appeared in at least 100 games at the position during the '00s. Here are the players we've selected so far:

First Base: Prince Fielder
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Third Base: Bill Hall
Corner Outfield: Ryan Braun
Center Field: Mike Cameron
Catcher: Damian Miller

Voting for our final starting outfielder opened yesterday and will close at 4 pm tomorrow. Today we'll select our first backup infielder:

Russell Branyan

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2004-2005, 2008
Slash line as a Brewer: ..248/.351/.526
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -9.1 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 1.7

Craig Counsell

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2004, 2007-2009
Slash line as a Brewer: .247/.341/.338
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +8.5 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 5

Jose Hernandez

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002
Slash line as a Brewer: .261/.324/.434
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +4.7 runs*
WAR as a Brewer: 5.8

* - FanGraphs only has UZR data dating back to 2002, so only Hernandez's 2002 season is included here.

Mark Loretta

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002*
Slash line as a Brewer: .281/.348/.374
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -2.7 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 1.8

* - Loretta was also a Brewer from 1995-1999, but those numbers aren't included here.
** - Again, FanGraphs only has UZR data from 2002 forward, so only Loretta's 2002 season is included here.

Ronnie Belliard

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002*
Slash line as a Brewer: .251/.327/.384
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -6.9 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 2.9

Keith Ginter

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2002-2004
Slash line as a Brewer: .257/.344/.448
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -0.9 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 3.1

Eric Young

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2002-2003
Slash line as a Brewer: .271/.340/.392
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -6.7 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 2.6

Junior Spivey

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2004-2005
Slash line as a Brewer: .256/.337/.400
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +8.2 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 1.2

Richie Sexson

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2000-2003
Slash line as a Brewer: .276/.366/.536
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -10.6 runs*
WAR as a Brewer: 10.2

* - FanGraphs only has UZR data since 2002, so this number does not reflect Sexson's 2000 and 2001 performances.

Lyle Overbay

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2004-2005
Slash line as a Brewer: .289/.376/.464
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -12.3 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 4.6

Poll

Which of these players deserves a spot on the bench on the BCB All Decade Team?

Russell Branyan

36 votes

Craig Counsell

178 votes

Jose Hernandez

9 votes

Mark Loretta

44 votes

Ronnie Belliard

2 votes

Keith Ginter

5 votes

Eric Young

0 votes

Junior Spivey

3 votes

Richie Sexson

118 votes

Lyle Overbay

43 votes

438 votes | Poll has closed

2010 MLB Free Agent Predictions: 41-50

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:00:47 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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40. Darren Oliver, Angels

- Oliver has been a great veteran influence on some of the younger Angels pitchers, and the Angels are expected to lock him up for one more season.

Prediction: Angels

41. Ronnie Belliard, Dodgers

- After putting together a strong finish, where he effectively won the starting position over, Belliard will certainly receive an offer for next season.

Prediction: Dodgers

42. Troy Glaus, Cardinals

- Glaus was reduced to limited playing time this past season, and may be reduced to a minor league deal if teams take their time this off season. A team in need of a DH/corner infielder could benefit from a healthy Glaus.

Prediction: Athletics

43.Carlos Delgado, Mets

- Delgado has 30-homer potential, and the Orioles could capitalize with his bat in the lineup, especially in the DH spot.

Prediction: Orioles

44. Aubrey Huff, Tigers

- Huff put up decent numbers with the Orioles and Tigers last season, but it sure to draw interest on the open market. A dozen or so teams are in the market for DH or first baseman, where Huff has experience.

Prediction: White Sox

45. Orlando Cabrera, Twins

- Cabrera doesn't have the market that he thought he would have, now that Marco Scutaro and Alex Gonzalez are off the market. Several teams report he is out of there price range, which could lead to a team like the Angels picking him up on a one or two year deal.

Prediction: Astros

46. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays

- Barajas is drawing interest from several teams, but may opt for New York if they extend him an offer.

Prediction: Giants

47. Matt Capps, Pirates

- Baseball executives were surprised to hear Capps was released, despite his poor numbers in 2009. Teams are still interested in Capps, and he should be picked up soon.

Prediction: Cubs

48. Garrett Atkins, Rockies

- Atkins was also non-tendered, and it is only a matter of time before he signs somewhere too. The Twins, Orioles, and Giants are possibilities.

Prediction: Giants

49. Russell Branyan, Mariners

- Branyan is playing hardball with the Mariners, but he has already made it known he wants to return.

Prediction: Mariners

50. Kelly Johnson, Braves

- After putting up fairly decent numbers between 2007-2008, his numbers dropped significantly to the point of being non-tendered following the 2009 season. Still, the Diamondbacks' interest in Johnson goes way back and he could end up in Arizona.

Prediction: Diamondbacks

Washington Nationals' 2010 Middle Infield Update.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:00:23 -0000

by Tony Dejak - AP

What are the chances that the Nationals could get free agent infielder Mark DeRosa to make the same decision Pudge Rodriguez did? (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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• After Saturday's midnight non-tender deadline there were 266 free agents on the market, with just 22 middle infielders amongst them. Here's the current list, (according to MLB Trade Rumors.com):

2nd - Ronnie Belliard (Type B - Not offerred arbitration), Jamey Carroll, Craig Counsell, Mark DeRosa (Type B, Offered arbitration), Nick Green, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Orlando Hudson (Type A), Kelly Johnson, Adam Kennedy, Felipe Lopez (Type B - Not offered arbitration), Mark Loretta, Pablo Ozuna, Juan Uribe.

SS - Alfredo Amezaga, Eric Bruntlett, Orlando Cabrera (Type A - Can't be offered arbitration), Craig Counsell, Chris Gomez, Nick Green, Khalil Greene, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Miguel Tejada (Type A - Not offered arbitration).

• The last word from DC GM Mike Rizzo was in a Washington Post article by Chico Harlan entitled, "Rizzo Day III Briefing", where Mr. Harlan wrote that in Mr. Rizzo's opinion, he saw, "...the signing/acquisition of a 2B as being more likely," since, as he was quoted stating, "I think there's certainly more second baseman available of interest than there are shortstops of interest," on the free agent market.

Which infielder should the Rizzo regime sign?

• As a Type B free agent who wasn't offered arbitration, Ronnie Belliard would cost the Nationals nothing if he were brought back, and since they were reportedly considering Orlando Hudson at times this winter, why not get the guy who beat Hudson out for the starting spot at second after he joined the Dodgers late last season in a trade. The Nationals expressed interest in Mark DeRosa earlier this offseason according to two of MLB.com's Bill Ladson's baseball sources, who were cited in an article entitled, "Nats show interest in DeRosa, Gonzalez", where Mr. Ladson wrote that the Nationals, "...mostly likely see DeRosa as a second baseman and right fielder." (ed. note - "Playing second and backing up Dukes in right...can DC overpay DeRosa like Pudge?") Giving up a 2nd round pick for the aforementioned Orlando Hudson doesn't make much sense for a team committed to building through the draft. Kelly Johnson, we discussed last night...Felipe Lop...next...Anyone else on the list the Nationals should consider?

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

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Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

Making Your '00 Face: Second Base

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 22:00:15 -0000

Today, we're opening the voting at second base:

Ronnie Belliard

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002*
Slash line as a Brewer: .251/.327/.384
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -6.9 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 2.9

* - Belliard was also a Brewer in 1998 and 1999. All stats here only reflect the player's performance from 2000-2009.
** - FanGraphs only has UZR dating back to 2002, so Belliard's 2000 and 2001 performances are not reflected in this total.

Keith Ginter

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2002-2004
Slash line as a Brewer: .257/.344/.448
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -0.9 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 3.1

Bill Hall

Seasons as a Brewer: 8, 2002-2009*
Slash line as a Brewer: .253/.312/.446
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -1.1 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 7.4

* - Hall only appeared at second base during five of those eight seasons (2003-2006 and 2008), and only appeared in 50 games at the position one time, in 2004.

Eric Young

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2002-2003
Slash line as a Brewer: .271/.340/.392
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -6.7 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 2.6

Rickie Weeks

Seasons as a Brewer: 6, 2003, 2005-2009
Slash line as a Brewer: .247/.351/.415
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -22.1 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 4.2

Junior Spivey

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2004-2005
Slash line as a Brewer: .256/.337/.400
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +8.2 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 1.2

Poll

Who should be the second baseman on the Brewer All Decade Team?

Ronnie Belliard

22 votes

Keith Ginter

28 votes

Bill Hall

46 votes

Eric Young

31 votes

Rickie Weeks

218 votes

Junior Spivey

59 votes

404 votes | Poll has closed

Dodgers Face Tuesday Decisions For Hudson, Wolf, Others

Eric Stephen — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 03:09:00 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

The extent of communication between Joe Torre and Orlando Hudson

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Tuesday could be an important day in determining the shape of the Dodger offseason. December 1 is decision day for clubs to offer arbitration to free agents in the top 40% at their respective positions. Players are ranked by the Elias Sports Bureau based on stats from the previous two seasons, and split into groups:

Type A free agents: in the top 20% of their respective position group
Type B free agents: in the top 40%, but not in the top 20%, of their respective position group

By offering arbitration, a club guarantees itself some form of compensation should the player decide to leave. Type A free agents net two draft picks to the former club -- one in the first round (unless that club has a protected pick in the top 15) and one supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, picks in subsequent rounds are used, and the former team of the higher-ranking free agent (based on the Elias rankings) gets the higher pick. For instance, last year the Yankees gave up picks in the first three rounds for signing Type A free agents Mark Teixeira (1st round to Angels), C.C. Sabathia (2nd round to Milwaukee), and A.J. Burnett (3rd round to Toronto). Type B free agents net just a supplemental pick.

If a player accepts arbitration, he is bound to the team for another year. Player and club each submit a salary figure sometime between January 5 and January 15, and if they don't come to a contract agreement on their own, will face off in an arbitration hearing sometime between February 1 and February 20.

The deadline to offer arbitration to these free agents is Tuesday night, December 1, at 9pm. Players have until Monday night, December 7, to accept or decline the offer.

Here's a look at the Type A and Type B free agents for the Dodgers:

Orlando Hudson

2009 Salary: $7.99 million

2009 Stats: .283/.353/.417, 109 OPS+, 2.9 WAR, 74 runs, 35 doubles, one cycle

2010 Age: 32

2010 Free Agent Status: Type A

Hudson is the litmus test for the offseason. Offering him arbitration should be a no-brainer. Hudson is exactly the type of player you would want back on a one-year deal. He compares favorably with all the other second base options, but if he accepts arbitration the Dodgers wouldn't be on the hook for a multi-year contract. But here's the thing: there is no way Hudson will accept arbitration. Hudson split time in September with Ronnie Belliard at second base, then the O-Dog was benched for the playoffs. As a player who was an All-Star this season, as well as a Gold Glover (deservedly or not), Hudson was rightfully miffed at his benching, as Ramona Shelburne noted last month in the LA Daily News:

According to Hudson, Torre never once called him into his office to discuss the situation, a slap in the face Hudson has trouble accepting.

"My teammates talked to me about it more than Joe did, but I never had any answers because (Torre) and I never talked," Hudson said. "There was no conversation."

Does this sound like someone who wants to come back? No way. But even if he does return, as unlikely as it seems, it would be good for the Dodgers. If the Dodgers are so risk averse as to try to avoid the infinitesimal chance the Hudson would cost them another $8 million or so, that's a bad sign. Only good things can happen by offering Hudson arbitration:

Hudson declines arbitration, signs elsewhere, and the Dodgers get two draft picks in 2010
Hudson accepts arbitration, Dodgers get a 2.5 to 3-win player for a one-year deal

If the Dodgers don't offer arbitration, it will be for monetary reasons only. Saving money in the short-term on things they should be spending money on will only hurt the team in the long run.

Prediction: I hope I'm wrong, but the Dodgers won't offer Hudson arbitration

Randy Wolf

2009 Salary: $8 million

2009 Stats: 11-7, 3.23 ERA, 122 ERA+, 4.00 FIP, 4.28 x-FIP, career high in starts (34), innings (214.1) and WHIP (1.101)

2010 Age: 33

2010 Free Agent Status: Type A

Wolf is another guy that would be great to have back on a one-year deal, another easy choice to offer arbitration. The starting pitching free agent market isn't so hot, and Wolf just might be the second-best free agent starter behind John Lackey. Wolf is bound to get a multi-year contract somewhere.

Prediction: Wolf gets offered arbitration

Ronnie Belliard

2009 Salary: $1.9 million

2009 Stats: .277/.351/.425, 105 OPS+, 1.3 WAR, 10 HR, 39 runs, 39 RBI in 287 PA

2010 Age: 35

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

Belliard would be a nice player to have back, a right-hander with some pop off the bench. He can spot start at second or third base, even if his glove scares the hell out of me at the hot corner. After 2007, he signed a two-year, $3.5 million contract following five years as a regular player. He is coming off two years as a sub (624 combined in 2008-2009), so I don't think he would get anything more than $1.5-$2 million in arbitration. I would offer Belliard arbitration, gladly taking either the supplemental pick or Mini Manny for 2010.

Prediction: Dodgers don't offer arbitration to Belliard

Vicente Padilla

2009 Salary: $12 million

2009 Stats: 12-6, 4.46 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.45 FIP, 2.0 WAR, 147.1 innings

2010 Age: 32

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

After Padilla climbed his way up the Dodger starting pitching ladder to the top spot in October -- he was the only Dodger starter to make three starts in the postseason -- it would be hard for the club to argue against his worth in arbitration. That said, Padilla reeks of Jose Lima. If the Dodgers want him back, it's best to sign him to a deal smaller than he would receive in arbitration. The Dodgers are already way ahead on the Padilla transaction. It's better to pick up their chips and cash them in rather than buy in for another round.

Prediction: No; offering Padilla arbitration is the equivalent of shooting yourself in the leg

Jon Garland

2009 Salary: $7.25 million

2009 Stats: 11-13, 4.01 ERA, 111 ERA+, 4.48 FIP, 2.4 WAR, 204 innings

2010 Age: 30

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

With Garland, it is never pretty or flashy, as his career 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings suggest. However, Garland isn't a bad guy to have fill out the back end of a rotation: a league average or slightly below average pitcher that puts up 200 innings a year and doesn't miss a start. That said, if the Dodgers want Garland back, they would be better served to try to sign him to a lower deal on the open market rather than head to arbitration.

Prediction: No; if the Dodgers wanted to pay Garland anything significant in 2010, they wouldn't have declined his 2010 option.

Guillermo Mota

2009 Salary: $2.35 million

2009 Stats: 65.1 innings, 3.44 ERA, 115 ERA+, 4.12 FIP, 4.49 x-FIP, -0.1 WAR

2010 Age: 35

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

The Dodger bullpen is loaded as is. There is really no point to pay anything for someone who shouldn't be higher than sixth or seventh at best on the depth chart. Fun fact: Mota has the fifth best ERA+ ever (143) by a Dodger reliever (minimum 200 games).

Prediction: The Dodgers will not offer arbitration to Mota

Will Ohman

2009 Salary: $1.35 million

2009 Stats: 12.1 innings, 5.84 ERA, 68 ERA+, 7.93 FIP, 5.68 x-FIP, lots and lots of DL time

2010 Age: 32

2010 Free Agent Status: Type B

With George Sherrill and Hong-Chih Kuo in the bullpen, Ohman is simply redundant as another lefty reliever. Ohman was hurt for most of the year, and I never got a chance to interview him, which is a shame because from some of the excerpts from spring training he seemed hilarious.

Prediction: No; like Garland, if the Dodgers wanted Ohman back, they would have picked up his 2010 option.

The Dodgers have seven decisions to make by Tuesday night. I think they should offer arbitration to three (Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard), but I believe they will only offer arbitration to Randy Wolf.

Rule 5: You do talk about the Rule 5 draft

DanUpBaby — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:00:18 -0000

Nothing exemplifies the Hot Stove season quite like worrying about the Rule 5 draft. Most of the players don't stick it out all year; most of the ones that do are eventually traded for Ronnie Belliard or Blaine Boyer; and most of the time it would be completely absurd to spend time thinking about this. Fangraphs won't return my calls, but according to my new WARP/seconds-in-your-limited-lifespan converter most of these guys peak around fifteen, twenty seconds. (Brian Barton, simply because his nickname was briefly "Enunciate It", broke the curve at forty-five.)

But it is November, and I already did a VEB Theater, and though it kills me to say it there is no baseball going on at Busch Stadium. So let us take solace in the dim light of this good news: the Cardinals will probably not lose a useful player to the Rule 5 draft this year. In approximate order of near-term usefulness:

ALLEN CRAIG
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: He doesn't really have a position; he's a minor league slugger who played in the PCL, so his numbers are vaguely suspicious; he strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He's looking more likely every day to spend significant time in left field in 2010, and there's a non-zero chance that he has a hot month while David Freese burns and Tony La Russa is suddenly convinced he can play third. He's never crushed a league, but he's also been extremely consistent level to level—in his three full seasons he's always hit .300, always hit 20 home runs, and always managed an OBP over .365. If the Cardinals find a left-handed outfielder they're comfortable with he is the ideal short side of a platoon.

JON JAY
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: He might be the platonic representative of the Cardinals' more conservative draft inclinations—he's almost guaranteed to be a likable fourth outfielder, but he's almost guaranteed not to be a likable third outfielder.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He cowrote the Federalist Papers, and every dollar the Cardinals don't have to spend on a fourth outfielder who can play great defense and get on base a little is a dollar they can spend on the player who is consigning him to the bench. If pressed into service on a full-time basis he probably wouldn't hit much worse than Harold Ramis did last year, although the only thing we have to suggest his defense would be as good—I have the distinct impression that he was drafted as a defensive "tweener"—are a year and a half of minor league numbers.

ADAM OTTAVINO
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: His career minor league ERA is 4.15, and his career minor league BB/9 is even higher. In the high minors he's basically been Todd Wellemeyer.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He's a first rounder, so we have to think about him, up to and including the moment in which he crushes our dreams. We were only allowed to stop thinking about Chance Caple last June. In addition to that, Ottavino's always been a Stuff Guy, and not a Results Guy; this is good for him, and bad for us. lboros's expert scouting report set me back about three years, as far as forgetting about him as a front-line guy goes.

In any case, he's too good a Rule 5 pick to not put him here. He's exactly the kind of starter who gets drafted, pitches fifty innings for a non-contender in the Brad Thompson role, and spends a third of the season on a rehab assignment for Rule 5 Syndrome. In fact, if he were playing for another team, we would be including him on a list of players for whom the Cardinals should dump Brad Thompson on the eve of the Rule 5 draft.

TYLER NORRICK
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: The Cardinals have Trever Miller and the Diner signed through 2010, so for once we don't need to worry about LOOGY free talent. He walked nearly seven batters per nine innings last year.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He's probably better than Carmen Cali. Against lefties, his strikeouts-to-hits ratio was 2.5, which is awesome. His first name is Floyd, which is awesome, too.

DARYL JONES
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: He followed up 2008's breakout campaign with a breakdown campaign, treading water in AA Springfield. He's not a good 2010 option, even though we were hoping he would be.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He's DJ Tools! He runs like a gazelle! He leaps like a gazelle! He no longer hits like a gazelle! He's the top hitting prospect on a team that doesn't have any, and he's got a skill-set that's become more popular in the outfield corners in recent years. He's not nearly as MLB-ready as Brian Barton was, but somebody might grab him anyway.

BRYAN ANDERSON
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: I don't think anybody's thought about him since last March.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: You remember Charles Cutler, who we all watched fly up the prospect lists this year with a great high-average low-power season in the low minors? Bryan Anderson is five months younger than Charles Cutler. Anderson was rushed through the system, but until going down with injuries this year he had displayed his one tool, hitting for average, at every spot. So far he's stuck at catcher.

He probably shouldn't be Molina's back-up this year, if the Cardinals have any long-term plans for him—because he's still only 23—but he's interesting enough at a position where offense is at such a premium that if keeping him on the roster were contingent to, ah, keeping him on the roster, some club would do it.

FRANCISCO SAMUEL
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: Adam Ottavino's career walk rate, which is a concern, is a little more than half of Francisco Samuel's walk rate. I have nothing else to say about that.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: It takes exactly two good weeks for our opinion to change about middle relievers, and the Cardinals traded every single righty relief prospect who was ahead of him on the depth chart before 2009.

MARK HAMILTON
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM:

WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: After threatening to join Mike Ferris in the annals of great college sluggers who didn't do anything in the Cardinals system he was nearly as impressive as Allen Craig in an abbreviated season spent between AA and AAA. It seems like we've been thinking about Hamilton a lot longer, but they're the same age, and Hamilton's hitting prowess is less BA dependent. He might be the most underappreciated player in the Cardinals' system.

If something were to happen to—no. No. For the Cardinals Hamilton will never, ever, ever, ever play regularly, ever, don't even consider the possibility, but for another team in the Rule 5 draft he could be Chris Shelton.

2010 CHONE Projections Are Out

Eric Stephen — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:09:38 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez join fellow outfielder Matt Kemp as the only Dodgers projected by CHONE to have an OPS of .800 or above in 2010.

Browse more photos »

Last month we looked at the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. Now, the second set of projections are in, from Sean Smith of the wonderful blog Anaheim Angels All The Way. His full list of CHONE projections can be found here.

I added these projections to the previous Bill James projections, and also took a look back to 2009 to see how accurate last year's set of predictions were. The 2009 and 2010 CHONE projections are highlighted below.

I also threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.

Infield
Russell Martin
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.292	.390	.439	.829
2009 CHONE	.286	.384	.434	.818
2009 actual	.250	.352	.329	.680
2009 prOPS	.284	.382	.396	.778
2010 Bill James	.272	.372	.396	.768
2010 CHONE	.273	.364	.407	.771
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

James Loney
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.295	.351	.443	.794
2009 CHONE	.294	.355	.446	.801
2009 actual	.281	.357	.399	.756
2009 prOPS	.298	.371	.438	.809
2010 Bill James	.294	.360	.440	.800
2010 CHONE	.292	.354	.444	.798
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Orlando Hudson
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.270	.342	.392	.734
2009 CHONE	.276	.353	.407	.760
2009 actual	.283	.357	.417	.774
2009 prOPS	.277	.352	.391	.742
2010 Bill James	.280	.353	.409	.762
2010 CHONE	.270	.342	.395	.737
2010 status	Type A free agent

Ronnie Belliard
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.266	.331	.405	.736
2009 CHONE	.272	.331	.419	.750
2009 actual	.277	.325	.451	.776
2009 prOPS	.281	.328	.466	.794
2010 Bill James	.265	.322	.416	.738
2010 CHONE	.256	.313	.404	.717
2010 status	Type B free agent
Belliard's stats include time w/Nats

Rafael Furcal
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.286	.354	.409	.763
2009 CHONE	.284	.358	.412	.770
2009 actual	.269	.335	.375	.711
2009 prOPS	.278	.343	.388	.730
2010 Bill James	.278	.346	.391	.737
2010 CHONE	.273	.342	.388	.730
2010 status	under contract

Casey Blake
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.259	.334	.429	.763
2009 CHONE	.259	.336	.439	.775
2009 actual	.280	.363	.468	.832
2009 prOPS	.287	.372	.473	.845
2010 Bill James	.257	.337	.426	.762
2010 CHONE	.256	.331	.430	.761
2010 status	under contract

Outfield
Manny Ramirez
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.304	.406	.556	.962
2009 CHONE	.291	.408	.556	.964
2009 actual	.290	.418	.531	.949
2009 prOPS	.314	.439	.557	.995
2010 Bill James	.296	.406	.537	.943
2010 CHONE	.272	.368	.501	.869
2010 status	under contract

Matt Kemp
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.311	.360	.496	.856
2009 CHONE	.299	.353	.476	.829
2009 actual	.297	.352	.490	.842
2009 prOPS	.279	.335	.478	.813
2010 Bill James	.311	.365	.508	.873
2010 CHONE	.297	.351	.492	.843
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Andre Ethier
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.303	.374	.492	.866
2009 CHONE	.292	.366	.468	.834
2009 actual	.272	.361	.508	.869
2009 prOPS	.292	.378	.520	.898
2010 Bill James	.288	.368	.500	.868
2010 CHONE	.281	.356	.488	.844
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Juan Pierre
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 Bill James	.292	.348	.356	.704
2009 CHONE	.283	.328	.357	.685
2009 actual	.308	.365	.392	.792
2009 prOPS	.306	.362	.376	.738
2010 Bill James	.291	.342	.355	.697
2010 CHONE	.287	.335	.369	.704
2010 status	under contract

You can get the full list of Dodgers' CHONE projections here.

Looking at the CHONE projections, I thought the mythical battle for fourth outfielder was interesting:

2010 CHONE Projections
4th Outfielder	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mitch Jones	.228	.306	.435	.741
Hector Luna	.261	.324	.408	.732
Xavier Paul	.259	.323	.390	.713
Jamie Hoffmann	.255	.328	.379	.707
Juan Pierre	.287	.335	.369	.704

Free Agent Friday: Second Base 2010

Justin Bopp — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 08:04:53 -0000

These charts tells me the Royals are now in the Luis Rodriguez sweepstakes.

Click to enlarge

Full data after the jump.

Second basemen	AGE	TYPE	CLUB OPTION	WAR	UZR/150	wOBA	ISO	PA
Felipe Lopez	30	B		4.6	7.6	0.356	0.118	680
Placido Polanco	34	A		3.1	11	0.321	0.112	676
Juan Uribe	31			2.9	16.4	0.351	0.206	432
Orlando Hudson	32	A		2.9	-3.7	0.342	0.134	631
Craig Counsell	39			2.8	18	0.336	0.124	459
Adam Kennedy	34			1.7	-11.4	0.337	0.121	587
Mark DeRosa	35	B		1.7	N/A	0.327	0.183	576
Jamey Carroll	36			1.5	7.4	0.317	0.063	358
Ronnie Belliard	35	B		1.3	6.6	0.339	0.174	287
Jerry Hairston Jr.	34			1	4.1	0.312	0.144	433
Nick Green	31			0.4	-29.7	0.290	0.130	309
Alex Cora	34			0	-9.3	0.288	0.059	308
Mark Loretta	38			-0.2	0.7	0.311	0.085	204
Luis Rodriguez	30			-0.5	-23.7	0.268	0.058	251

Click for Free Agent Fridays 2010:

1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | P

Data Source: FanGraphs.com

FA/Age Source: mlbtraderumors.com

RL & Lg. Avg wOBA Data: Jeff Zimmerman

SB Nation - Ronnie Belliard

Making Your '00 Face: Final position player

Who should be the final position player on the BCB All Decade Team?

Making Your '00 Face: Our first backup infielder

Which of these players deserves a spot on the bench on the BCB All Decade Team?

Russell Branyan

Craig Counsell

Jose Hernandez

Mark Loretta

Ronnie Belliard

Keith Ginter

Eric Young

Junior Spivey

Richie Sexson

Lyle Overbay

2010 MLB Free Agent Predictions: 41-50

Washington Nationals' 2010 Middle Infield Update.

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Making Your '00 Face: Second Base

Who should be the second baseman on the Brewer All Decade Team?

Ronnie Belliard

Keith Ginter

Bill Hall

Eric Young

Rickie Weeks

Junior Spivey

Dodgers Face Tuesday Decisions For Hudson, Wolf, Others

Orlando Hudson

Randy Wolf

Ronnie Belliard

Vicente Padilla

Jon Garland

Guillermo Mota

Will Ohman

Rule 5: You do talk about the Rule 5 draft

2010 CHONE Projections Are Out

Infield

Outfield

Free Agent Friday: Second Base 2010