SB Nation - Dmitri Young

The Greatest Reds: #1

riverfront76 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:00:16 -0000

1. Pete Rose

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1963-78, 1984-86	LF, 3B, 2B, RF, 1B	1	4	2
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1969	1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971
84%	16%	0%	1969	1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Most Valuable Player – 1973 Rookie of Year – 1963 World Series MVP – 1975 Hutch Award – 1968 Lou Gehrig Award – 1969 Roberto Clemente Award – 1976 Gold Glove – 1969, 1970 All Star – 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1985	Hits – 1965, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1976 Plate Appearances – 1965, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1978 At Bats – 1965, 1972, 1973, 1977 On Base Percentage – 1968 Batting Average – 1968, 1969, 1973 Runs Scored – 1969, 1974, 1975, 1976 Singles – 1973 Doubles – 1974, 1975, 1976, 1978		-1st in career runs scored -1st in career doubles -1st in career hits -1st in career walks -4th in career RBI

via www.mkrob.com

Peter Edward Rose, perhaps more than any man in the history of the world, was built to hit .300. One suspects that it was not only important to him (you just *know* he kept track of his stats), but that there was some sort of innate necessity—like an internal magnet that drew him towards a .300 batting average. I say this for a variety of reasons: one, Rose played for a really, really long time, came up to bat more than anyone ever, and hit .303 for that career. But at the end of his career, he had—as player/manager—the ability to write himself in or out of the lineup. As his skills dimmed (he hit just .219 in his final season), he had the power to ensure that his lifetime mark stayed above that magic line. More interesting, however, is just how balanced it all was after 14,000 at-bats. Rose hit .302 in day games, .303 at night. He hit .303 on grass, and the same on turf. Domed stadiums presented no trouble (.301). He wasn’t a total robot—for example he was a better left-handed hitter than right—but it must have seemed that way to opponents, at times. From 1965 through 1980, Rose managed at least 175 hits in each season—and often times posted many more than that. Too much has been written about Rose, much of it either overly positive or overly negative. Here, then, are five observations about Rose, rooted primarily in fact and data:

1) Rose was at least a little bit lucky that Tommy Helms wasn’t either a bit older or a bit better. Rose won Rookie of the Year in 1963, due in part to the fact that there weren’t many good candidates that year (he had just a 101 OPS+, and was caught stealing more times than he was successful). The following season, Rose was pretty bad—80 OPS+, didn’t field particularly well, etc. The Reds had Helms, another 2nd baseman, in AAA that year, and he was just not quite ready for prime time. Actually, as his career unveiled, it turned out he wasn’t quite good enough to be foundational to a winning team. Rose bounced back in ’65 (led the league in hits, finished 6th in MVP voting), but an impatient team or a better alternative at 2nd base might have changed his situation considerably.

2) Rose bounced from position to position, generally at four-year intervals, and didn’t play any of them particularly well. Honestly, one of the great surprises in this entire project was that Rose won two Gold Glove awards, while playing right field, but I would guess that a retrospective, fielding data-based examination of the results wouldn’t approve. Actually, he was probably a decent enough left fielder in the early 70’s, especially playing alongside Tolan or Geronimo. He didn’t make many errors, and was almost certainly pretty intelligent about throws, or running down flies, etc.

3) One of my favorite unknowable questions in baseball history is this: how many home runs could Pete Rose have hit had he employed a different style of hitting? He certainly didn’t hit very many as it was: just 160 of his 4256 hits went over the fence, and he peaked at 16, twice. From 1972 on, he reached double digit dingers just once. Still, he regularly led the league in doubles (five separate times during his 30’s), and he appeared to be muscular enough to turn some of those doubles into home runs. One imagines that his mental calculus determined that trying for home runs decrease the batting average, and that might mean he drop below .300…

4) Rose played until he was 45 years old. He clearly and transparently played long enough to eclipse Ty Cobb’s hits record. Still, he was good enough in 1985, at age 44, to post a .395 on-base percentage.

5) Throughout his career and its aftermath, Rose was probably a bit overrated. He was flashy, a great quote, a statistical freak given his longevity, and he had an elevated profile in part due to the greatness of his teammates. His peak was very good, but wasn’t other-worldly (he had only two seasons with OPS+ marks above 150, although he was generally on-base heavy). Still, it’s possible that his ridiculous career marks are understated. The indescribably good Baseball-reference.com takes efforts to translate each player’s season to a "neutral" offensive era, whereby teams average just over 4.4 runs per game. Since Rose’s peak took place in the pitcher-friendly 1960’s, he emerges favorably from this exercise, which imagines 4,604 career hits, 800 doubles, and an OPS of 815 instead of his actual 784.

Rose spent 19 seasons with the Reds, came to bat over 12,000 times, scored over 1700 runs, maintained a 124 OPS+, and reached base safely over 4,500 times.

The Top 15 Left Fielders in Reds history

1          Pete Rose
2          Frank Robinson
3          George Foster
4          Adam Dunn
5          Bob Bescher
6          Pat Duncan
7          Kal Daniels
8          Eric Tipton
9          Babe Herman
10        Joe Kelley
11        Dmitri Young
12        Gary Redus
13        Elmer Smith
14        Jerry Lynch
15        Mike Donlin

Washington Nationals Buy Out Austin Kearns...5 Others Become Free Agents.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:42:46 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

Browse more photos »

In early 2007, when then-DC GM Jim Bowden signed right fielder Austin Kearns to a 3-year/$17.5 million dollar deal with a $10 million dollar club option for a fourth year or a $1 million dollar buyout, Kearns told Washington Post writer Barry Svrluga, as quoted in an 2/2/07 article entitled, "Kearns to Have an Extended Stay With Nats", that he decided to sign an extension to stay in the nation's capital because he liked the direction the team was headed:

"'I got to see how close this is to getting it to where they want it to go,' Kearns said at an afternoon news conference at the downtown offices of the Lerner family, which owns the Nationals. 'I really do think it's closer than what people expect because I think there's a lot of pieces of the puzzle that are already here on the field, and pieces that are here off the field. It excited me.'"

(cont.)...

In explaining the signing, Mr. Bowden, who had been the General Manager in Cincinnati when the Reds made Kearns their 1st Round pick in 1998, told MLB.com's Washington Nationals writer Bill Ladson, in an article entitled, "Nationals, Kearns agree on extension", that Austin Kearns was, "...a complete player. He is like...Ryan Zimmerman,":

"...Austin can play the game from both sides. He is really special. He is just 26 years old. His best years are ahead of him. Philosophically as a general manager, I always like buying free-agent years. I don't like a player going on the market or going on the last year of his contract. I like assets if you can get them at the right numbers and the right deal."

Kearns, who'd been acquired by Washington in a deal with Cincinnati the previous July that also brought SS Felipe Lopez and RHP Ryan Wagner to DC in exchange for pitchers Bill Bray, Gary Majewski and Daryl Thompson and infielders Royce Clayton and Brendan Harris, had hit .264 with a .363 OBP, 33 doubles, 24 HR's and 86 RBI's the previous season in 87 games with the Reds and 63 with the Nationals, and was coming off a 1-year/$1.85M dollar deal with Cincinnati when he agreed to the extension with the Nationals whose team President Stan Kasten labeled the outfielder "a long-term building block", in Mr. Ladson's article while then-manager Manny Acta called the move, "...a step in the right direction."

Three years, 51 doubles, 26 HR's and 123 RBI's later, the Nationals have excercised that club option for a $1 million dollar buyout of the oft-injured outfielder, who played all but one game in 2007 hitting .266 with 35 of the doubles, 16 of the HR's and 74 of the total RBI's he'd collect in his time with Washington, before appearing in just 166 games total in the final two years of his deal, missing time with elbow, foot and, this year, thumb problems/issues/injuries which severely decreased his offensive contributions and ultimately made the 29-year-old outfielder expendable.

MLB.com's Bill Ladson announced the Nationals' decision to cut ties with Kearns this afternoon in an article entitled, "Trio of Nats complete free agent group", where Mr. Ladson also reported that Ron Villone, Dmitri Young, Josh Bard and Livan Hernandez would become free agents, finally removing from the payroll two of the more burdensome contracts (Kearns' and Young's) that the Former DC GM signed players to during his tenure.

Back in September, Washington Post writer Tom Boswell estimated, in a Q&A with readers entitled, "Ask Boswell: Nats, Orioles, Redskins and More", that all the contracts coming off the Nationals' books this winter would total around $31.5 million dollars, and "With (the) Strasburg, Zim and Dunn deals added back in for '10," Mr. Boswell wrote, "...their payroll obligations for next year (would) stand at an incredibly low $40 million or slightly more," leaving the Nationals with at least $20 million to spend on free agents if they were to return to 2009's total payroll, or close to $40 million dollars if they were to increase the payroll to the league-average $80 million dollars.

?'s For The DC Faithful...The bullpen, the infield, the rotation...the new manager? Where will the Nationals start? What will the Nationals' 2010 payroll be? $40, $60, $80M? Are any of these free agents coming back? Not even Villone?

Rays Family Tree: Dead Trade Strings of 1999

FreeZorilla — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:00:38 -0000

Steve Slowinski wrote a piece a week ago about the importance of developing trade strings, particularly for the teams in small to mid-markets. I'll let Steve explain:

To lead off this series (no pun intended), I want to look at a concept that has always fascinated me: trade strings. I'm pretty sure I just made that phrase up, so let me explain what I mean. "Trade strings" are trades that eventually result in future trades. And then those trades beget future trades. And so on and so forth down the road until eventually, a prospect or two doesn't pan out and the trade string fades. Theoretically, if a team was exceptionally good at evaluating talent and got lucky in some trades, a team could keep one player's peak talent within their system for decades, even long after that original player had declined and fallen out of baseball.

This gave me the idea of looking at every major league transaction on the Rays major league tree. I'm going to divide the Rays history into 3 groups. The Live Trade Strings involve strings of players that are still paying dividends today. The Dead Trade Strings were attempts at parlaying assets into others which have since faded into oblivion. The One and Dones involve Free Agents, Waiver Claims, Draftees, and Players purchased who spent part of one or more seasons with the Rays but eventually left the team with nothing in return.

For Part I, we will look back at the Dead Trade Strings in order from the first string to die to the most recent. Our very first Dead Trade String was touched on by Eric Hahmann earlier this week.

1997 trade: Dmitri Young for Mike Kelly (Released in 1999)

1997 Trade	Acquired	Trade Salary	PT- OPS	NT-OPS	Original Draft
Dmitri Young	1997 Expansion Draft	$215K	.690/2yrs	.842/4yrs	1st 1991
for
Mike Kelly	Released 1999	$235K	.823/2yrs	.696/1 yr	1st 1991

The first trade was really a phantom one. On November 11, 1997 the Rays acquired Mike Kelly from the Redsfor a Player to Be Named Later. A week later, the Rays acquired Da Meat Hook, the older brother of Delmon Youngin the expansion draft from the Reds and returned him to Cincinnati as the Player to Be Named Later. Kelly would start 67 games in the corner outfield spots for the Rays in their inaugural season posting a slash of .240/.295/.401. The former first round pick would be released prior to the start of the following season and would only get to see 2 future Major League plate appearances with Colorado before his sun set for good.

Dmitri Young started 87 games for the Reds in 1998 mostly in the outfield corners with a slash of .310/.364/.481. Young would continue to post an OPS north of .830 for his tenure with the Reds prior to being traded to the Tigers for Juan Encarnacion and Luis Pineda. Young continued to play in the majors through 2008 posting a career slash of .292/.351/.475. Meanwhile Encarnacion would be packaged with Wilton Guerrero and Ryan Snare to the Marlins for Ryan Dempsterin 2002. Sadly for the Reds, they released Dempster in 2003, thus ending their Mike Kelly string prior to Dempster's success with the Cubbies. Nonetheless, the Reds won the day in this one quite handily.

1999 Trade: Julio Santanafor Will Silverthorn (Released 1999)

Julio Santana was acquired via waiver claim from Texas in April 1998 where he had spent two years splitting his time between the rotation and the bullpen. Santana did not do much for the Rays posting a FIPs of 5.29 and 6.37 with a K:BB hovering around 1 in 1998 and 1999. In July 1999, Santana was traded to the Red for cash and a Player to Be Named later (Will Silverthorn). Santana was granted free agency by the Red Sox following the season. He made 3 more dips in the majors in relief roles, his most recent being in 2006 with the Phillies.

I was unable to find much on Silverthorn. As a 19 year southpaw he fared well in rookie ball for Boston striking out 39 while walking 13 in 44.2 IP. In, 1999 after being acquired by the Rays, he made 7 relief appearances in Princeton striking out 8 and walking 7 in 9.2 innings pitched. I would speculate he had arm troubles as he did not reappear in the minors until 2001 when he surfaced with the independent Tyler Roughnecks. He only lasted 12 games and was never heard from again. Given that Santana was less than a replacement player, this deal saved the Rays money, I suppose that is a moral victory. Hurrah!

Searching for a Skipper, Part Two

davoag — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:35:07 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

5 months ago: In this Aug. 12, 2008 file photo, Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta waits as umpires talk with each other during a baseball game with the New York Mets in Washington. Acta is out as manager of the Washington Nationals. Acting general manager Mike Rizzo confirmed the firing Monday morning, June 13, 2009, in an e-mail to The Associated Press. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez, File)

Browse more photos »

When the Astros confirmed that Manny Acta would be the first candidate brought in for an interview, it began what could be a very open managerial search. This is good for us in that we can get an in-depth look at each potential skipper. So, let's continue this with a look at former Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta.

Acta was signed as a 17-year old first baseman out of the Dominican Republic by the Astros in 1986. He advanced as high as Double-A in both 1989 and 1990, playing 77 games there and batting .194/.194/.258. Acta played 370 games in the minors and had a career line of .241/.241/.299, including his final season at Low A Burlington, where Acta was a player-coach at age 22. Two years later, in 1993, Acta got his first managerial job with Houston's short season New York-Penn League team, the Auburn Astros. Over the next eight seasons, Acta put together a record of 419-432 with four winning seasons, including two straight at his highest stop, High A Kissimmee in 1999 and 2000. Acta also won a Florida State League title in 1999, coaching players like Morgan Ensberg, Brad Lidge, Keith Ginter and Wayne Franklin. In 2000, Acta coached Roy Oswalt, Tim Redding and Jeriome Robertson.

Acta started coaching in the winter leagues in 1999 as well, starting out in Caracas in the Venezuela Winter League before moving to Licey of the Dominican Winter League in 2002. Acta spent 2001 as a coach on the New Orleans staff, when it was still the Triple-A affiliate of the Astros. Players on that 200 team? Astros Pacific Rim scouting director Glen Barker and Lance Berkman, along with former Astros Scott Elarton, Roger Cedeno, Julio Lugo and Scott Linebrink.

Acta was just 33 years old when he was hired as the Washington Nationals new third base coach under manager Frank Robinson in 2002. Acta steadily moved up in the eyes of the Nationals until he was given the mangerial job after Robinson was fired following the 2006 season. Acta also managed the 2006 Dominican Republic entry into the World Baseball Classic, coaching Astros free agent Miguel Tejada and Angels free agent-to-be Vladimir Guerrero as well as former Astros farmhand Francisco Liriano.

So, that brings us to his stint as Washington's manager. In 2007, Acta saw the team to a 73-89 record but revived the career of Dmitri Young. Da Meat Hook even was selected for the All-Star game that July. The Nationals were not great that season, but that was partly because the team had a 4.58 ERA and a WHIP of 1.48. Of course, his starters ERA was 5.11, which makes it hard to win any games. Acta used his bullpen for 590 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.81, which we will revisit later on. The other telling stat about his pitching staff is in the 73 wins, the team's ERA was 2.91 while in the 89 losses, it was 9.02. Big difference, huh?

In 2008, the team's ERA jumped up to 4.66 but the starter's ERA was still too high at 4.97. His bullpen threw less innings at 553 1/3, but had a slightly higher ERA at 4.18. The team itself lost 102 games and had just 28 saves in 34 save situations. Offensively, Acta got surprisingly good seasons out of shortstop Christian Guzman, second basmean Ronnie Belliard and outfielder Elijah Dukes. Young had another good season, with an OPS of .794, but Acta was hurt by the roster machinations of GM Jim Bowden.

All those roster moves came to a head in 2009, when Acta and outfielder Lastings Milledge had a very public feud. Milledge was sent down to the minors after playing just seven games. Reportedly, the reason was Acta didn't like how Milledge behaved in meetings and that he had a generally surly attitude. This did not endear Acta to management, and he was let go halfway through the season.

The Nationals never had much talent, but Acta did show a knack for getting good performances out of other team's castoffs. He also didn't overuse a bullpen, and got similar results to the Astros this season (534 1/3 IP, 4.13 ERA). I'm not sure whether he would affect the staff positively or negatively, but he's definitely familiar with some of the pitchers and knows how to not go all Joe Torre on his relievers.

The Milledge incident is also interesting, because it suggests Acta is willing to call people out and hold his players accountable. Of course, it also reminds me a little of how Cooper acted with this team, and we know how that ended. So, I'm sure this incident will be discussed in more depth during the interview with Wade and Co.

I brought up all the players he's coached or is otherwise familiar with to illustrate how the Astros might accept him or how he might handle the current roster. If Berkman and Oswalt are both considered the 'Faces of the Franchise', and they both turned on Coop, it's important to get them on board with the hire. Will their familiarity with Acta help? If Acta can get those two to support his style or his accountability methods, it would go a long way to setting up a successful culture on the team.

One interesting quote from this 2007 interview with Acta was regarding his influence on the organization as a whole:

I’m kept in the loop on everything that’s going on, and I have a say in how we want things done down there. I take a lot of pride in having continuity throughout the organization, all the way from rookie ball to the big leagues.

This is very interesting, since it's not a job the Astros have asked from their big league skipper in quite a while. Sure, the coaches will make a call on when to bring guys up or who makes the roster in spring training, but setting a tone in the minor leagues? Continuity at all levels? That's something the Astros have lacked since Hunsicker left in 2004. Now it seems like Bobby Heck and Ed Wade both set the tone for player development. Where would Acta fit into this scheme?

Another interesting quote from the same interview about his bunting strategy:

Bunting is pretty outdated. Everybody scores so many runs nowadays, it doesn’t make sense to play for one run unless it’s late in the game and it’s close. I hardly ever bunt early in a game, unless it’s with a pitcher. A big inning can win you a game. One run in the third inning can’t, unless you have Pedro pitching.

And of course, his pick for the best pitcher in baseball:

Roy Oswalt. He’s just tough as nails. He comes at you like nobody else. That’s a tough place to pitch, and he’s been very consistent.

Acta is also very interested in using sabermetrics to make better decisions, which is very interesting to the people around this blog, we heady baseball fans. I'm not sure whether this is a good or a bad thing, but it may help get all those bad OBP players out of the every day roster. Nothing drives me crazier than all the guys with OBP under .340. But that strays from the point. Acta is a young guy, who's failed in his first job and is looking for some redemption. Sounds a lot like Bill Belichick after the Cleveland fiasco but before New England. Does that make him the best candidate? No, because he still has done nothing to be successful at the big league level. He does make for an interesting candidate, though.

The Road to 100 Losses: Spend Less, Get Less

SFiercex4 — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:20:54 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Even if guys like Adam Dunn, left, and Cristian Guzman, right, keep producing the way they are, the Nationals can't afford to pay them free agent rates. Wonder if they're paying that batboy the market rate too. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

Browse more photos »

In the first installment of the The Road to 100 Losses, I looked at the primary culprit of the Washington Nationals' consecutive 100-loss seasons, their pitching staff. Today, I'll look at some players who might also be worthy of blame, even though their play is helping the team's short-term production.

What am I talking about here? One of the things that has caught my interest since I began climbing my sabermetric learning curve is the value of a win, or in most of our analysis, a WAR. As of now, the rate most of us are using for WAR is $4.5M, as detailed here. This means that we would expect to pay around $4.5M per WAR to acquire a free agent. This last clause is critical because for many teams, contention cannot be solely bought on the back of free agent dollars.

Consider that a team can be considered a "playoff team" or "contending team" if it reaches 90 wins. If we consider a replacement level team to be capable of around 48 wins, that would mean a team would have to manufacture 42 WAR to be "in contention." At the going market rate for free agents, that 42 WAR would cost $189M of payroll, a salary currently only eclipsed by one team, the New York Yankees. In other words, successful teams need to find ways to build surplus value beyond free agent value to be a contending ballclub.

How do you build surplus value? The primary and simplest way to do this is to invest in the farm system and the draft, as cost controlled players in their first six years in the major leagues usually provide the most value, even at the lowest production levels. However, it seems like the Washington Nationals did not receive this memo.

Lacking in Surplus

I refer you to today's Graph of the Day, courtesy as always of Justin Bopp and Walter Fulbright. In it you'll see that the Nationals have a projected surplus value of about $32M, almost all of that tied up in Ryan Zimmerman's excellent season. Unfortunately, that total is the fourth lowest surplus value in baseball, leading only the injured New York Mets, the Houston Astros (see here for their surplus value; in case you had not heard, they're run poorly as well), and the Chicago Cubs.

I did a rough calculation of surplus value for each of the Nationals' years in Washington and compared their surplus value to the league. Using Cot's Contracts values for Openign Day salaries (also understanding that this could over or understate teams that made deadline moves) and WAR and dollar value totals from FanGraphs, I came up with the estimated surplus value for each team in the league from 2005 to 2008. The results for the Nationals are not pretty.

The team hasn't gotten much surplus value at all, ranking in the bottom ten in baseball in each year other than 2005. Combine that with their 27th ranked performance this year, and you have a team which is producing only a few million dollars more than they would have if they were purchasing free agent players for the entire team.

Perhaps the most egregious issue with the Nationals' inability to produce surplus value is that their payroll is also low for the type of surplus value they're receiving. You could excuse a team like the Yankees for getting equal or less than free agent value for their WAR, because the Yankees have such a high payroll that they can pay free agent rates for WAR and still eclipse 40+ WAR for their team. Similarly, teams like the Red Sox, Tigers, and Mets can afford to rack up only $40M in surplus value and, due to their already fairly high payrolls, still reach the contention mark. However, in each of the years I looked at outside of 2005, for teams that were either $10M above or below the Nationals in terms of surplus value, only the Pittsburgh Pirates had a lower payroll than the Washington Nationals. In other words, the Nationals are neither paying a lot for free agent WAR nor are they receiving surplus WAR from sources such as cost-controlled players, a proposition which is sure to lead to terrible seasons such as the ones the team has suffered this year and last.

Priorities are not straight

This phenomenon is fairly evident of bad teams; I mentioned the Pirates in the previous section, and they've been quite the example of mismanaging resources over the past (insert long number here, Pirates fans) years. But the smart teams learn that, if your payroll has to be low, either by choice or because players won't sign with your club, you have to find a way to use those limited resources in a more efficient fashion. There is the classic Moneyball approach of finding undervalued commodities in the market and paying below-market rates for their production, There is also the methodology of focusing on the farm system and the draft, finding value in actions such as reaching out to the international markets for more talent or signing overslot to guarantee your draft picks will join your team. Most of the so called smart teams do a little bit of both methods.

The Washington Nationals have chosen to do none of those things.

This is no more evident in their free agent signings and extensions. The last few seasons, the team has executed some puzzling signings, exactly the sorts of signings a low-to-medium payroll team with mediocre major league talent cannot afford to do.

The Free Agent

The Nationals failed to sign Mark Teixeira this past offseason despite offering what appeared to be slightly more than the going rate; as we all know, Teixeira eventually signed for an extra year and a similar amount of money with the Yankees. Adam Dunn was the Nationals' consolation prize. The slugger and sabermetric poster child (both good and bad) signed with the Nats for two years and $20M. This means that he was to average around $10M of value each year, or around 2.2 WAR per season (really it's 1.8 WAR this year and 2.6 WAR next year, but that's splitting hairs).

The problem was that, according to FanGraphs, Dunn had missed that 2.2 WAR mark three out seven times in his career, and two of those three times happened in the last few seasons. While the rest of the world had mostly caught on to the value of Dunn's offensive approach, only some of them had caught on to the fact that he was hurting his play severely with his terrible defense. Even then, most saber-pundits said that Dunn's offense and defense were likely to balance out and he'd be yet again around 2 WAR, thus the Nationals would likely get their money's worth.

So far, Dunn has been worth 1.2 WAR, thanks to a career year at the plate and with the glove, going the other way. As we saw yesterday, once again in the Graph of the Day, Dunn's defense has hit a terrible low, -35 runs split across the three least-valuable defensive positions. Even with his great offense, Dunn's 1.2 WAR has been worth $5.6M, $2.4M shy of his $8M salary this year. ZiPS updated projections for the end of the year have Dunn finishing with a .403 wOBA, which according to my calculations would put him at around 2 WAR if his defense stays steady at its current number. That would mean he would be at a surplus of $1M on the year.

Without doing any projections, let's say the Nats break even next year with Dunn. That would mean that the Nationals spent an average of $10M a year, around a sixth of their payroll, and received only $1M in surplus gains. Again, for a team with a $150M payroll, this may be acceptable. But for a club who is not close to contention, is this the wisest way to spend $20M?

The Extensions

At least in the case of Adam Dunn, you were more or less assured that he would produce within the range of production for which you were paying him. However, when it came to signing extensions to players, it seems the Nats would settle for giving any veteran who played a halfway decent season a market deal. Cristian Guzman is a great example. Guzman had a horrific hitting career since his 2001 season in Minnesota. He arrived in Washington and had a horrendous hitting year in 2005 (.247 wOBA according to FanGraphs), then got hurt and missed all of 2006 and most of 2007. Then, he began tearing the cover off the ball, or rather tearing as much ball cover as Cristian Guzman could ever tear. He posted a .364 wOBA in 177 PA at the end of 2007, and was the team's lone All-Star in 2008.

That was enough for the Nationals brass to hand Guzman a two-year extension at $8M a season. Never mind the fact that Guzman fell off and reverted to the old Guzman this season. ZiPS at the start of the year projected a .333 wOBA in about 444 PA. At that total, with the kind of playing time he's received this season and a projection of his slightly below average defense, you'd expect a 2.2 WAR player worth almost $10M on the open market. Even if the team got that for two seasons, they'd only expect about $4M in surplus for the $16M they invested.

Let it be known that this is not an isolated incident. The Nationals also inexplicably gave a two-year extension at $5M a season to Dmitri Young despite the fact that they only saw about 250 good plate appearances from him at the time of the signing and that they had quality players already under contract and available to play the only positions Young was capable of playing (first base and, as a stretch, corner outfield). He's produced 0.4 WAR since signing.

Currently, the four players with the highest 2009 salaries on the Nationals (Dunn, Guzman, Austin Kearns, and Young) have combined for 2.1 WAR this season. If we give Dunn 2 WAR and Guzman 1 WAR for the season, the team's total investment in these four players would have yielded 7.7 WAR, worth around $33M, and spent $29.5M to get it.

The Alternative they didn't take

Let's compare that money spent with this example. Last season, the Nats failed to sign their first-round draft pick, University of Missouri pitcher Aaron Crow. According to sources, the Nats offered $3.5M and Crow and his agent wanted $4M, a difference of $500K which neither party wanted to close.

As a way to calculate the approximate worth of Aaron Crow to the Nats, I used the estimate of 0.85 WAR per season for 9th pick in the first round, as shown in Erik Manning's work earlier this season on this here site. I took the discount rate of 8% for the WAR for each season as suggested by Victor Wang, and got a total WAR for the first six seasons of around 4.8 WAR. Splitting up so that the arbitration years are a bit more valuable (to reflect the improvement of the player), I got this for the value of Crow.

After including the $4M bonus, you would get a surplus value of $11.5M on Crow's signing. This isn't an exact science of course, and this doesn't take into account that college pitchers are less valuable as a group then, say, hitters in general. Truthfully, the surplus could be around the $6M-$8M range easily. But the point stands that the Nationals decided that rather than picking up estimated positive surplus value from signing a draft pick that they clearly showed interest in, it would be more beneficial to the organization to pocket that extra $4M. The team then promptly spent the $4M and got $2M surplus value instead. A difference of $500K cost the team an expected surplus value of $11.5M.

Change in the horizon?

Hopefully GM Mike Rizzo can usher in change in this organization's management of its resources. The team did sign top pick Stephen Strasburg this year, so that's a start. If the team considers dealing Adam Dunn, it would go a long way towards helping them get value for the dollars they'll be spending. If it remains stalwart that Dunn is a team "cornerstone," as Rizzo has worded in a recent chat, and he is not dealt, than it is something of a sign that the team is more interested in the short-term, which with their current core likely does not include contending, instead of the long-term health of the organization. There are reasons to hope for the best in Washington, but it has to begin with a change of heart from management. They cannot continue to spend dollars essentially on free agents and compete with the budget they have. To bring winning to Washington, they'll have to develop or acquire more Josh Willinghams and Jordan Zimmermans and sign less Cristian Guzmans and Dmitri Youngs.

Washington Nationals' Possible Candidates for September Roster Expansion

Dave at Nats News Network — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:54:55 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Collin Balester could rejoin the team as early as Sept. 1 when the major league rosters expand. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Browse more photos »

With September 1 literally just hours away, major league teams can expand their active roster to include anyone occupying a spot on their 40-man roster. Traditionally, teams have utilized the "September call-up" in one of several ways:

1) For contenders, it's a chance to give their regulars a night off here and there in preparation for the gruel of the playoffs

2) For middle of the pack teams, it's often a reward to long-time minor leaguers or AAAA-types toiling in obsurity

3) For bottomfeeders, it's an opportunity for a chance to see that prospect that everyone is excited about, even for just a quick appearance

The Nats seem to fall into all three categories this year.

The Nats have already indicated that they will wait until Syracuse's season is over before calling anyone up, though. So any help will still be at least a week away from arriving in D.C.

Because of the rash of injuries, trades and bullpen struggles, general manager Mike Rizzo has already made the bulk of his September call-ups before the roster expansion happened. Jorge Padilla, Pete Orr, Justin Maxwell, Mike Morse...even pitchers like J.D. Martin, Tyler Clippard and Jorge Sosa would have been prime candidates, were it not for the need earlier in the season.

So who is left? Let's take a look!

ON THE 40-MAN ROSTER

By my count, with Justin Maxwell's impending promotion there are currently 14 players on the 40-man roster NOT on the active 25-man roster:

C: Jesus Flores (15-day DL), Luke Montz (AA-Harrisburg)

SS: Ian Desmond (AAA-Syracuse)

OF Austin Kearns (15-day DL), Nyjer Morgan (15-day DL)

LHP: Scott Olsen (15-day DL), Ross Detwiler (AAA-Syracuse), Matt Chico (AA-Harrisburg)

RHP: Collin Balester (AAA-Syracuse), Shairon Martis (AAA-Syracuse), Marco Estrada (AAA-Syracuse), Luis Atilano (AAA-Syracuse), Ryan Mattheus (minor league DL), Stephen Strasburg

60-day DL: OF Roger Bernadina, RHP Terrell Young, 1B Dmitri Young, RHP Jordan Zimmermann

Players on the 60-day DL do not count toward the 40-man roster, so there may still be some wiggle room to place a player or two on the 60-day to open 40-man space.

Of the 14 players on the 40-man, Flores, Morgan, Olsen and Mattheus are out for the season with injury. And from the sounds of this, Kearns is probably joining them. So we can rule all of those players out.

Rizzo has already been on record that Chico is not likely a candidate, and Strasburg's plans have been laid out in excrutiating detail. Additionally, Rizzo has all but ruled out a cameo for Drew Storen, blazing his way up the minor league chain after being selected No. 10 overall in this year's amateur draft.

That leaves Desmond, Detwiler, Balester, Martis, Estrada and Atilano off the 40-man roster eligible. It's been assumed that the Nats will recall a couple starters to relieve some of the burden from young arms accumulation of innings. But with the signing of Livan Hernandez, who eats innings as well as any pitcher in the majors, maybe that goal has already been achieved.

Still, I can envision seeing Balester, Detwiler, Martis and Estrada all being recalled and utilized as starters or swing-men in September.

And I'll also pencil in Desmond. He's had a terrific season, and the Nats have to be wondering if the best arm and range in their minor league system can handle the bat enough at the big league level to replace the very quickly aging Cristian Guzman and his bunions.

Atilano is 2-0, 2.45 in two starts since his promotion to Syracuse, and the one-time first round draft pick of the Altanta Braves has enjoyed a fine season overall, but the Nats are probably happy to let him finish the season and head into spring training.

As for players currently not on the 40-man roster? There are certainly some candidates, and most of them are bullpen guys that could again help manage the workload of some of the young starters.

OTHER PITCHERS

There are six relievers in Syracuse that could certainly get "The Call" : RHPs Zech Zinicola, Zack Segovia, Josh Wilkie, Clint Everts and LHPs Jack Spradlin and Yunior Novoa.

Segovia has some major league experince, a 2.70 ERA and five saves for Syracuse. Everts was the Expos 2002 first round pick. In 2009, in over 57.1 IP at three levels (Potomac, Harrisburg & Syracuse), Everts has been outstanding (8-1, 1.41 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 10.4 K/9). Spradlin is 4-3 with four saves and has a 3.19 ERA and 1.212 WHIP across AAA-AA in 44 games. He has struck out an even 7.0 per nine.

Wilkie was an unheralded pitcher from George Washington University (sound familiar?) and has been promoted twice this season. Novoa has a great change but has only been "just decent" this season, despite being promoted three times this season. Zinicola (6.04 ERA) has struggled this year.

OTHER HITTERS

Most of them are already with the big club. Rizzo said the other day he doesn't envision calling up a third catcher just for the heck of it. Montz is the only other catcher on the 40-man, and he's really regressed this season (.184/.295/.314 in 347 plate appearances) after hitting 16 homers last season.

Could Seth Bynum (.263/.306./453, 18 HR, 62 RBI in 433 ABs), Kory Casto (.268/.332/.373, 7-55), Norris Hopper (.291/.342/.344, 23 SBs), Brad Eldred (.267/.338/.478, 16-56) or Daryle Ward (.235/.320/.389, 12-45) get promoted? Possible, but not likely. The only compelling possibility is Hopper, who is a plus defender in center. But you have to figure whatever at bats Wee Willie Harris doesn't get are going to go to Justin Maxwell, in what could make or break his tenure in the organization.

SURE TO BE INCORRECT PREDICTIONS

The Nats add a bunch of arms, but just one more hitter, injury notwithstanding.

From the 40-man: RHPs Balester, Detwiler, Martis, Estrada and SS Desmond

Need to be added to 40-man: RHP Everts and Segovia and LHP Spradlin

Your guess is as good as mine, though. Let's hear 'em in the comments.

SB Nation's Mid-Season NL EAST Roundtable...Washington Nationals Edition - Part 2.

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Note: Over the last week or so, the SB Nation's NL East bloggers have been participating in a roundtable discussion about what we've all season in the first-half of the '09 campaign. The roundtable was moderated by Sky Kalkman of the SB Nation's Saber-Slanted Baseball Community Beyond the Box Score...This is Part 2 of 2.

The cast of characters:

• Moderator - Sky Kalkman - (Beyond the Box score)

Peter Baker (The Good Phight) - SBN Philadelphia Phillies blog

Martin Gandy (Talking Chop) - SBN Atlanta Braves blog

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue) - SBN New York Mets blog

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball) - SBN Washington Nationals blog

Craig Strain (Fish Stripes) - SBN Florida Marlins blog

• Part 2: Second-Half, Story Lines...(After The JUMP)...

• Part 2: Second-Half, Story Lines...

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What surprising story lines from the first half of the season have shaped the standings the most?

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): Broadly, I'd say the mediocrity of the division. I think most people saw the Mets and Phillies as co-favorites, with the Marlins and Braves as possible contenders if things went well for them. Well, all four are contending, but not really by virtue of anybody playing particularly well. I don't know if anyone can say they're "shocked" necessarily about the Marlins; they are doing what they always do -- stockpiling good, young pitching.

Specifically with regard to the Phillies, I would cite the mind-boggling numbers of Raul Ibanez, and the early-season struggles of Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge.

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): The Florida Marlins' complete dominance of the Washington Nationals has had a significant effect on the NL East standings. The Marlins are 9-0 against DC, 10-10 against the rest of the division. The biggest story in the NL East, however, has to be the injuries the Mets have suffered, losing J.J. Putz, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado for significant stretches in the first half. Who would have guessed that Gary Sheffield would be leading the Mets in HR's, or that David Wright would have just 5 HR's when he had 17 at the break last year and 16 in 2007. I looked at their roster before the season and saw holes, but that was when Putz, Reyes, Beltran and Delgado were in the lineup.

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): It's hard to argue with the Mets' injuries being the biggest surprise of the first half. As Ed pointed out, three of their top four hitters have been gone for significant stretches and none is due back anytime soon. Two-fifths of the Mets' starting rotation have missed significant time, with Oliver Perez just recently rejoining the team (for better or worse).

The Phillies' woeful starting pitching has been a surprise and the lack of power from David Wright and Chipper Jones, the latter of which isn't receiving nearly the press coverage of the former. More than anything, though, is the fact that none of these teams has really been any good.

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): I'll see your Omar Minaya and raise you a Jim Bowden, Eric. Just looking at the work Bowden's replacement, Mike Rizzo, had to do to "fix" the Nationals' bullpen into even a serviceable corps makes you wonder what the ....heck Mr. Bowden was thinking going into the season...and don't get me started on Mr. Minaya's "work" with the Expos...

Martin Gandy (Talking Chop): I'm with everyone who says that the division is wallowing in mediocrity. I expected the Mets to struggle, but I didn't think the amount of injuries that have happened would happen -- if you look at their lineup right now it looks like the worst and weakest lineup in baseball. The Marlins have hung around longer than expected, and the Nationals have been even worse than I thought they would be.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): I guess like everyone else, the Mets injuries, which really doesn't surprise other than they all happened at once and came so early in the season. The Phillies having trouble getting good consistent starting pitching. The Braves having trouble scoring runs and I really thought the Nationals would have done somewhat better than they have. The Marlins are about where I expected them to be, I just had no idea that it would've been good enough for second place going into the All-Star break.

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which of those surprises are most likely to continue throughout the rest of the season? I.e. which are flukes and which are for real?

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): Raul Ibanez is not Albert Pujols. He's going to have a second half close to his career averages, which is still pretty good. I think Brad Lidge is going to continue to struggle; his knee is just not right and no one seems to want to acknowledge how badly it's affecting him.

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): I don't know that the Mets will get even more injured, but the fact that their injured stars aren't even on the precipice of good health means they'll be getting inadequate performances from a lot of key positions. If the Phillies can get some decent starting pitching for a stretch they could run away with the division.

Martin Gandy (Talking Chop): There's always a question of whether the Marlins will stay around. The Nationals may continue to get worse, especially if they trade off some other parts of their current team. At some point, someone is going to take off in this division and put some distance between them and the rest of the teams.

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): Do you think the team to take off and separate themselves will be anyone other than the Phillies though? They've had injuries and gotten less out of Jimmy Rollins and a tired Cole Hamels than they expected, so instead Raul Ibanez steps in and Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino keep carrying them. I liked the Braves getting Nate McLouth, but wonder about their trade for Ryan Church...and I'd like Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe and Tommy Hanson against any other team in the division's rotation...I don't see the current Mets' roster challenging the Phillies and expect a second-half fade from Florida...The Nationals? Don't worry about them, just quietly stockpiling pitching...

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): I do think the Phillies have the potential to pull away, but it's going to take some better pitching. The pitching in general has been better of late, but Hamels remains inconsistent. I'm definitely not shocked that he's struggling, after his huge workload last season. Flags fly forever, though, so I'm not complaining.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): The Marlins can be ran away from, but if this division keeps playing like the NL West of old, I can almost guarantee the Marlins will be in the hunt for the entire season. (This is assuming no major injuries to key personnel.)

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which big local stories aren't getting as much attention from the national media? Should they be?

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): The emergence of the Phillies farm system, for one. They have three bonafide blue-chippers (Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Dominic Brown) plus a slew of other quality prospects who can slot in as the current core ages. The big reason they're widely considered the favorites in the Roy Halladay Sweepstakes is the depth and quality of the prospects they could send to Toronto. It's been a number of years since they've had this depth and quality.

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): Adam Dunn's well on his way to his sixth straight 40 HR season, and if he isn't dealt, the big guy will be attempting to become the first player since Babe Ruth to hit 40 HR's in seven consecutive seasons in the second year of his contract with the Nationals in 2010, so consider that a preview of a story people will be talking about all next year. But for this year, it seems like people are laying off so far, but Washington still hasn't signed this year's #1 pick, Stephen Strasburg, and with the rumors that are surfacing about what Scott "Maximum" Boras will be asking for, it could become one of the biggest stories in baseball in the next month.

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): I love Adam Dunn and root for him except when he plays the Phillies. He's a beast.

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): I think folks need to realize how truly awful Omar Minaya has been at assembling a roster. He can't be held accountable for all of the injuries, but he does bear most of the responsibility for having basically replacement level fill-ins at every position. No one expected the Mets to have Carlos Delgado or Jose Reyes clones lying around, but the Minaya regime has been predicated on the signing and retention of superstars and filling in the gaps with dreck. There has been nobody who even approached decency (let alone averageness or above-averageness) ready to step in for the Mets, especially on offense, and the Mets' run-scoring has cratered as a result.

Martin Gandy (Talking Chop): The excellence of our starting pitching has gone mostly unnoticed because they don't have the wins that other folks do. The fact that Javier Vazquez is among the top-5 in baseball in strikeouts and ERA and not on the All-Star team is silly. Jair Jurrjens has also been spectacular, and Rafael Soriano is as good as any closer in baseball right now.

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): If Chipper Jones and Brian McCann can up their games a bit in the second half, and Tim Hudson comes back somewhere near his old self, the Braves could be scary down the stretch.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): Speaking of a couple in the division, the Adam Dunn and Jair Jurrjens stories are way under the radar and don't deserve to be. As for the Marlins, we don't get press, well, other than Hanley, but besides that the team lives under the radar and there they will remain.

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For the teams probably out of the running, what acquisitions and decisions with an eye toward 2010 and future seasons would you consider a "win"?

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): I'll assume this one's solely for the Nationals blogger...I think the acquisition of Nyjer Morgan is a "win" in that it will give the Nationals a CF for a few seasons, which might free them up to trade some of their older outfield prospects. The decision to part ways with Manny Acta is a "loss", in my opinion since it will set them back a half-season in development if they don't keep Jim Riggleman around for 2010. What the Nationals can get in the next two weeks for Nick Johnson, Cristian Guzman, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, Ron Villone, Joe Beimel will shape next year's roster...but it's all about signing Strasburg...that'll be the big (curly)-W.

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What story lines will we see in the second half of the season that most people aren't expecting?

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): I'm predicting that the Braves make a sick run on the backs of their starting pitching staff. The Mets will valiantly hang in despite their injuries but ultimately fall short.

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): Pedro Martinez will dominate for the Phillies while the rest of their starting rotation gets its act together for a month or so. The Phils run away with the division. Hopefully I've jinxed it now. Alternatively (or perhaps in conjunction), the Mets fall so far out of contention that they fire Jerry Manuel and install Manny Acta as their new manager.

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): The Return of Dmitri Young...I also think the Nationals are going to be resting a lot of their young pitchers, so it might surprise a few people just how many pitching prospects the Nationals have amassed.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): In headline form: Who is the best Dutch born pitcher active in the majors today: Jair Jurrjens or Rick VandenHurk?

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): How about ending with one bold prediction we won't hold you accountable for if you're wrong, but we'll worship at your feet for if it comes true?

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): Kyle Drabek will be called up and will fill a Joba Chamberlain-esque short relief role late in the season, minus the fist pumps and subsequent DWIs; he's coming off Tommy John surgery and leads the minors in innings pitched. They need to regulate his innings.

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): Adam Dunn wins double gold gloves in left field and at first base.

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): Dunn at first...(shivers)...Please don't trade Nick Johnson, Mr. Rizzo!...Uh, I'm going to predict that Strasburg signs with DC and he gets $20-$25 million, which is a ridiculous price, but what it's going to take to convince him to join the Nationals. If that's not bold enough, Jordan Zimmermann wins the NL Rookie of the Year.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): Josh Johnson - Cy Young Award Winner.

The End.

(ed. note - "Rumor: Roundtable No.3 - Trade Deadline Edition...")

Potomac Nationals Weekly Update. 7/14 - Dmitri Young GOES DEEP!!!

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 05:00:03 -0000

DY GOES DEEEP! Potomac Nationals beat Lynchburg Hillcats...Dmitri Young's HR helps beat Lastings Milledge and the Hillcats...3-2 final. I wrote a note to Anthony Masterson, (Broadcast/Media Assistant with the Class-A Carolina League's Potomac Nationals), when I realized this morning that Dmitri Young was going to be playing for the P-Nats, to ask if he could send a quick note to let me know how DY had done in the game. (ed. note - "In an article at Potomac's official site entitled, "Dmitri Young to join Potomac Tuesday", Mr. Masterson explained the DY was moving around the affiliates so that he could get "consistent at bats..."). I got a response about the P-Nats' win early this afternoon, reporting that Young had gone 1 for 3 with a walk, a HR and 1 RBI. The P-Nats took a 3-2 decision on an RBI single by Jesus Valdez that scored pinch runner Brian Peacock in the bottom of the eighth after he'd come on to run for Chris Marrero, who had reached on an error before he was replaced on the basepaths. DY's HR was called "titanic" in Anthony Masterson's post game report entitled, "Forever Young: Dmitri's Blast Propels P-Nats", and in the note he sent along he joked, "I'm not sure if it's landed yet." DY!!! (ed. note - "Milledge was 1 for 5 with a double and an RBI.")

DY!! DY!!! DY!!!

GameThread: 2009 MLB All-Star Game...Featuring: Washington Nationals' Third Baseman, Ryan Zimmerman.

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 23:01:34 -0000

2009 NL All-Star Ryan Zimmerm-- THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!!

#11 / Third Base / Washington Nationals

Height: 6-3

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 28, 1984

'09 Stats - 100 for 347, .288 AVG, 22 2B, 14 HR, 52 RBI's, 37 BB, 70 K's, .354 OBP, .473 SLG, .827 OPS, 117 OPS+, 16 GIDP, 12 E's, UZR/150 - 16.8, WAR - 3.2.

Origin Story - Washington Nationals' 1st 1st Round Pick, 4th overall in 2005.

Washington Nationals - All-Star History...After the JUMP...

Washington Nationals - All-Star History...

(continued from 7/7/08 All-Star Post)...

In 2005, for Detroit's All-Star Game, there were two Nationals selected as reserves, with DC's Flat-Brimmed Closer Chad Cordero, who entered the Break in '05 with a (2-1) record, 31 saves in 46 games, and 47.2 innings pitched over which he'd allowed just 37 hits, 6 ER, 4 HR's and 12 walks with 42 K's and a 1.13 ERA, and Livan Hernandez, the former Mr. National Himself, who was, at the time of his selection, (12-3) in 19 starts, with a 3.48 ERA and 78 K's in 134.1 innings on the mound for the relocated franchise.

In '06, Washington, (and baseball fans everywhere, who voted him a starter), sent reluctant DC outfielder Alfonso Soriano to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania's PNC Park as the Nationals' (thus far) lone "elected" All-Star representative. After 81 games that season, Soriano had collected 93 hits in 338 at bats, for a .275 AVG, with 24 doubles, 21 HR's, 56 RBI's, 10 stolen bases, and (in one of the rare instances where the term "irony" could, possibly, be correctly applied), a League-leading 12 outfield assists, though most of those were because opposing coaches continued to test his arm throughout his first season in the outfield.

Last season, Washington first baseman Dmitri Young was a surprising selection when he was added as a reserve for San Francisco's turn as the ASG host city in July of 2007. DY had been written off by many after he'd flamed out in Detroit and actually been released by the Tigers a year earlier, but then Da Meat Hook hooked up with Washington and set about rejuvenating his Major League career. At the time of his selection, DY was hitting .339, with 96 hits in 283 at bats over 81 games, in which he'd collected 23 doubles, 1 triple, 8 HR's and 43 RBI's.

Chad Cordero struck out the only batter he faced in the '05 ASG. Earlier in that game, Livan Hernandez, (who had been selected in '04 as an Expo, but did not pitch), gave up 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk in 1.0 inning of work for the NL squad. Alfonso Soriano was 1 for 2 with a single in the '06 All-Star game, and DY was 1 for 1 in his only at bat in '07. In 2008, Cristian Guzman, representing Washington in NY, was called upon to pinch run in the ninth, much to the delight of the DC Faithful, and then to our horror he was caught stealing on a strike'em out, throw'em out, but he stayed in the game, (for six innings), playing third (by neccessity, for the first time in his career) and going 0 for 3...

?'s For The DC Faithful...

• Will The Kid Get In The Game?

• Do You Think We'll See Zim At Third, Or Just A PH Appearance?

• Should Zim Have Been The Nationals' All-Star?

• Do You Think Being Amongst All-Stars Might Kickstart Zim's 2nd Half?

• DP or E? Will Zim Ground Into Or Commit One?

• Livan, Chief, soriANO!, DY, Guz, Zim? Who Was The Most Deserving DC All-Star?

Revisiting the Kevin Stocker/Bobby Abreu Trade

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:35:18 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Browse more photos »

It's the all-star break, we have until Friday to cover any loose analytical ties, but for a moment let's step back to 1997 and talk about potentially the worst trade in franchise history.

What we knew then...

Bobby Abreu, we barely knew you.

After taking the young corner outfielder with the sixth pick in the expansion draft, Chuck LaMar and the Devil Rays have traded him to the Phillies for shortstop Kevin Stocker. Reportedly a strong defender, Stocker has hit .247/.326/.337 over the last three years, and turns 28 before the start of next season. Stocker's offense is really, really poor. He walks, strikes out a bit more than you would expect, doesn't hit for power, and doesn't really hit for average despite decent BABIP. In other words, he's awful.

American League average last season was .271/.340/.428, it's hard to see Stocker coming anywhere near that.

Meanwhile, Bobby Abreu turns 24 before the season starts, and in ~230 plate appearances in the majors has hit .248/.325/.362. Sure, he plays a less demanding position, but he's younger and in 1,300 plate appearances at Triple-A hit .288/.382/.468, mostly as a 21 and 22-year old. He's a corner outfielder with no chance of playing center and yet he still has more upside than Stocker ever has.

Abreu has shown more willingness to take a walk than Stocker ever has. The power in his bat is evident and scouting reports peg him as having a strong arm in right. Is he better than Mike Kelly right now? Maybe. Kelly had a good season last year (.293/.338/.543) in 150 plate appearances; of course in his previous 300 his line was .213/.285/.373. 28 in June, Kelly seems like a player living off his draft status and his middle name (Raymond).

The player the D-Rays sent to Cincy for Kelly has been named, and it's Dmitri Young. Another young outfielder,

Young has 410 plate appearances in the majors and has hit .257/.337/.354. Young also has an OPS over .900 in the International League, so we'll see, but this seems like trading potential for mediocrity.

Most expansion teams don't compete in year one, to think the Devil Rays will be any different is star-wishing. Later in the draft the D-Rays took Aaron Ledesma. I'm not sure how well his leather plays at short, and his bat isn't great either, but look at his last three seasons in Triple-A:

1995 - .299/.335/.368

1996 - .305/.360/.391

1997 - .325/.388/.439

Nothing moon-shattering, still though, he turns 27 next June and is he really that much worse than Kevin Stocker? Even if Ledesma is an absolute butcher and Stocker is Ozzie Smith, I'm not sure the difference on this particular teams warrants yielding a young, potentially good, corner outfielder for a below average shortstop.

Neither of these trades looks all too appealing, but we'll see.

What we know now...

Chuck LaMar's right to make personnel decisions should've been stripped immediately. Trading young hitters with solid track records for old hitters with no history of being effective based on position doesn't seem like a good idea. This is well before we had readily available defensive metrics, so even if the Rays scouts thought Stocker was a really good defender, he would have to make up a ton of ground to be equal to Abreu. He never did.

You have to appreciate that LaMar may have understood that shortstops are more valuable than right fielders and that defense matters. Unfortunately he ignored total value. Trades for Stocker and Kelly were motivated by a "win-now" philosophy. Why? Beats me, I guess "be better than the Cleveland Spiders" isn't a lofty goal, but trying to compete in the American League East in your first try is an insurmountable battle.

When it comes to these trades, LaMar had the vision of a bat in an echo chamber.