SB Nation - Ryan Church

Some Let's-Take-A-Deep-Breath Analysis Of The Bradley-Silva Deal

Al — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 14:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Now that you've all had a day to express disgust, outrage, "FIREHENDRYNOW", etc. over the trade of Milton Bradley to the Mariners for Carlos Silva, let's examine how this really will affect the 2010 Cubs on the field.

We don't have to rehash the reasons that Bradley had to be moved, but it was clear after he was sent home in September that he would be, no matter what. And when that happened, it was also clear that what the Cubs would get back wasn't going to be much -- likely someone else's bad contract. And that is precisely what we got.

All of you here know that I was against the signing from the beginning -- but I'm not going to say "told you so" here, because even I never imagined that Milton would melt down in the way he would. Let's just say he was never a good fit for the high-profile team that is the Chicago Cubs, and Jim Hendry should have known that. Hendry took responsibility for the entire debacle, and you can bet that Tom Ricketts will have him on a pretty short leash for the rest of this offseason and 2010. If the Cubs don't return to the playoffs in 2010, I'd expect Hendry to be fired, and that firing would be justified. Until then, I do think Hendry deserves a chance to clean up the mess that he made.

So what, really, do we now have here? There has been some dispute over exactly how much financial relief the Cubs got in this deal, but according to this cubs.com article, it's $6 million. This article has the same number. So until I hear different, that's the assumption I'm going on for this post.

Let's not pretend this deal is something it isn't. In December 2009, in a vacuum, there is no way any team deals for or signs Carlos Silva, based on his performance the last two years. He's been horrific. And that might be an insult to horrific players. I'll cut Silva some slack for 2009, as he was hurt most of the year. Could be, that contributed to his poor performance in 2008 also; maybe he was hurt then and didn't tell anyone.

Silva has had, since 2004 when he became a rotation starter for the Twins, at least three seasons where his performance would have made him a capable fifth starter for most teams. In 2005, in 27 starts, he put up an ERA+ of 126 and a 1.17 WHIP. In 2007, the year that got him the four-year deal from the Mariners in free agency, he had a 102 ERA+ and 1.31 WHIP; those numbers, along with a 4.19 ERA, aren't too different from what the Cubs got from Jason Marquis in 2007 and 2008.

Can Silva do this again? The answer is, we simply do not know until we see him pitch. The Cubs claim they have good reports on him from Venezuela:

The Cubs have had scouts watching Silva in Venezuela. He has appeared in four games, striking out two and walking three over nine innings. The club will send its strength and conditioning staff down there to get Silva on a program. The right-hander did report to camp this year 30 pounds lighter.

"We'll do everything we can to get him as close to back where he was a few years ago," Hendry said.

There's no doubt that he needs to lose weight -- just look at the photo at the top of this post, which was taken April 14, 2009. Get the guy in shape, bring him to camp, and see what he can do. There were some here who thought the Cubs should just release Milton Bradley and eat the $21 million on his deal. If Silva really can't pitch any more, he could be released -- but the Cubs would only eat $15 million. Even trading for Pat Burrell would have made the Cubs eat $13 million (because the Rays weren't likely going to take any of Bradley's 2011 salary), and Burrell would have been a very expensive pinch-hitter.

At his best, Silva was a decent ground-ball pitcher who didn't walk anyone. There have been pitchers like him who have come from the AL to the NL and had success -- Bronson Arroyo, for one, or even Glendon Rusch, who had one decent year for the Cubs (2004) as a long reliever/spot starter. There were some links passed around here yesterday -- helpfully combined by Harry Pavlidis -- that indicate that Silva is a very intense player who has on occasion called out his teammates in public for not performing. Clearly, this isn't a good thing, and the only thing I can hope for is that the Cubs clear the air on this right away.

Again, this is obviously not a player you would have chosen to add to your team in a perfect world. The Milton Bradley situation was about as far from "perfect world" as you could get. The $6 million in salary relief, we hope, will allow Jim Hendry to add some help in CF (hey, how about a Ryan Church/Reed Johnson platoon?), or another starting pitcher (paging Joel Pineiro!), or a reliever like Matt Capps.

About Bradley, this portion of Paul Sullivan's article sums him up:

Bradley referred to himself as a "quiet" guy, and said people who criticize him or athletes in general are trying to make names for themselves.

"Pretty much for me, anybody deep down on the inside, looking out or looking in, you understand how PR works and media works, and how people are promoted, and how you have a bad guy and you can have a good guy," he said. "And that's just the way it is. And so I'm portrayed as however I am. It just adds to the mystique, I guess."

Yep, Milton, sure. It's always everyone's fault but yours. Bruce Miles calls you "unrepentant" and I am 100% agreed. For me, this statement by Ryan Dempster sums up the Bradley "era" in Chicago:

"It's unfortunate," Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster said in September after Bradley was suspended. "At the end of the day, he was provided a great opportunity to come over here and be a part of a really great organization with a lot of really good guys, and it just didn't seem to make him happy, anything."

Somehow, I doubt he'll be happy in Seattle, either, but for now, I'm going to put the pitchforks down and reserve judgment till I see what else Hendry does this offseason. Let's the rest of us try to do that, too. Finally, don't forget to vote in the poll I posted on the right sidebar, if you haven't already, about this deal.

Astros show interest in Kelly Johnson, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Michaels sign on the dotted line

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

How does "Kelly Johnson, Houston Astro" sound?

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After second baseman Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves, a number of teams have expressed interest in him. That link notes that the D-Backs are on record that their hat has been thrown in the KJ ring, but Tim Dierkes said Monday on his site that three NL Central clubs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Astros desire his services to various extents.

Johnson's non-tendering came as a surprise to many, including clack, and his bat would be welcome in Houston, assuming he returns to his normal self after a down 2009. Take Bill James' optimistic projection and the fan's projections off FanGraphs, and you can get a pretty good idea of what is expected out of the middle infielder in 2010.

This wouldn't be an offseason-defining signing by Ed Wade, but if the Astros could get Johnson, the team would be much improved. The Diamondacks are in a position where they would trade another one of their backup infielders in order to create space for Johnson. Neither the Cards or Buccos have the greatest infields in the world, and while Pittsburgh signed Bobby Crosby to bolster theirs, it's not as if Kelly Johnson wouldn't be able to get significant playing time in Pittsburgh. St. Louis may not get Troy Glaus back, which leaves them with Skip Schumaker, David Freese, and Joe Thurston at 2B/3B entering spring training. Not exactly household names.

Pedro Feliz is an upgrade for Houston over Geoff Blum, but it's no guarantee that Feliz will be even a win better than Blummers. Kaz Matsui is injury-prone at second, is coming off a disappointing season and his backup, Edwin Maysonet, does not project to be anything special. Cost is something to focus on, as KJ made $2.8 million in 2009 and should demand a contract worth more than that in 2010. A deal in the mid-3 millions for one season maybe a gamble worth taking, especially if Wade cannot sign a starting pitcher or convert Jason Bourgeois to a second baseman as some have hypothesized.

Just when we thought we were getting rid of him...he pulls us back in. Or rather, we pull him back in. That's right: Jason Michaels has been re-signed to an $800,000 contract. Again, not a disaster, but the money could have been better allocated elsewhere. I would still like to see the team make a move for Ryan Church, if their budget allows for it. Bottom line, as with most of the Astros' moves, this won't be the difference between a postseason berth and another Astro-less October. Michaels wasn't near as bad as I thought he was in 2009, but I would have liked to have seen Wade think a little more out of the box. Reggie Abercrombie, and the aforementioned Bourgeois and Church could be in the running for the fifth and assumedly final outfield reserve spot.

Alyson Footer also tweets that Gustavo Chacin has been signed to a minor league deal and given an invite to Spring Training. Chacin hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007 and hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, so let's not hold our breath on anything happening for him with the Astros. His experience working with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg in Toronto most likely has a lot to do with his being given a shot. Think of him as Russ Ortiz with perhaps a bit more upside.

Monday Morning Post-Meetings Link Fest

davoag — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Billy Smith II - AP

New Brandon Lyon puts on a 15 million dollar jersey. Prices at the team store sure have gone up!

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Have we all recovered? That was a hectic week as the Astros wheeled and dealed in Indianapolis. Houston came away with two relievers and a shiny new third baseman, while losing two prospects in trade and two more in the Rule V draft. Kudos to every contributor on TCB for covering all those moves during the Winter Meetings with both timeliness and depth of analysis. We all certainly have much to discuss between now and February when pitchers and catchers report. Until then, here's all the links fit to print from the past few days:

I know lots of stuff happened, but does baseball need the winter meetings? Dejan Kovasevic doesn't think so.
If you missed clack's excellent breakdown on the newest Astro Pedro Feliz and what to expect from him offensively, here it is. Look for some more analysis about Brandon Lyon from a Pitch f/x perspective later this week.
One of the biggest announcements out of Indy was that Peter Gammons is leaving ESPN for MLB Network and MLB.com. This is good news for all of us since keeping one of the best in the business around has to be a top priority. Whenever I write a story/column like this (roundup-style), I think about how Gammons pretty much invented it. Now that's influence. His final column is definitely worth reading.
Saturday was the deadline to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Houston offered contracts to all their eligible guys, but that was not the case with all the teams around the league. In fact, the Matt Capps-Pittsburgh saga turned out to be the most compelling storyline of the night. There was a long list of interesting guys that were released Saturday and Tim Dierkes over at MLBTradeRumors.com runs them down here.
Of course, the Astros have no need of a guy like Garrett Atkins anymore, but Ryan Church is available and needed on this roster. Another interesting guy is Ryan Garko, who is listed as a first baseman, but did play 12 games in the outfield last season and could be a good lefty matchup guy off the bench. Two of the guys on that list were re-signed by the Indians, so that list could dwindle quickly.
Here is an updated version of the 2010 Draft Order. Go ahead and bookmark this page, since it will be updated as more guys sign.
One bad sign for the Astros' 2010 draft hopes is this report from the Boston Globe implying that Jose Valverde may have priced himself out of the market. I am aghast that his agent thinks he can get 12-13 million for Valverde, or that Fernando Rodney asked for 30m over three years from the Astros. If you were incredulous after the Lyon signing, can you imagine the apoplectic shock if Rodney signed for that much? Sheesh.
FanGraphs' Dave Cameron on the marginal value of a win. The article is ostensibly about the Rays trading and paying Rafael Soriano, but Cameron name-drops the Astros to illustrate how silly it is to overpay for wins in their situation.
Another excellent read for anyone who is on this esteemed website. Print this out and refer to it every time you read an article on here. Especially mine, since I'm often wrong, as my wife always reminds me.
Did you ever want to ask Brad Mills five questions about the upcoming season? Well, hopefully they were these five questions. If not, you may or may not be out of luck.
The Harvard boys bring it again, breaking down the payroll efficiency of major league teams in 2009. Of course, the Astros fall into that bottom 15 category and really don't get a lot out of wins out of their large payroll. This isn't because they don't spend money, it's because they spend their money the wrong way (re: Lee, Carlos and Matsui, Kazuo).
Here's a roundup of the local bloggers and storymongers, as Brian McTaggart weighs in on what the 2010 roster could look like. Alyson Footer talks about many doings around the team, including Milo Hamilton winning yet another award. The picture Astros County had up the other day with Milo in a crown was priceless. Richie Justice likes the Feliz signing, but thinks the team will still give Chris Johnson a shot at the everyday job. I know the organization has high hopes for him, but I wish the local guys would stop touting Johnson. He's never shown good power, has a history of injuries and didn't hit much at Round Rock. Why should this guy get a shot at the starting job with the big league club? I'd rather see Mark Saccomanno there than Johnson.
Farmstros does a good job breaking down the Astros prospective Rule V selections next season. Jose Altuve is a really interesting addition to that list, since he had an excellent season in 2009, but hasn't played past Low A ball yet.
I wonder what Houston offers on the post-game buffet? Really, though, can these players be expected to give up full-sized candy bars? Where are we living, Communist Russia?
Finally, a little tidbit from Buster Olney's latest blog post sent me to this really neat website run by former MLB catcher Brent Mayne. The Art of Catching provides tips and tricks on playing one of the hardest to define defensive positions on the field. This is why I like being a baseball fan.

Non-tender roundup: Miller and Reyes signed to minor league deals

Jay — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 03:10:39 -0000

Vaporstarter Adam Miller and the oft-injured Anthony Reyes were not tendered contracts by the Indians yesterday, rendering them free agents, but both pitchers signed minor league deals with the Indians just hours later. These transactions remove both pitchers from the 40-man roster while retaining their services for at least one more year. In the (admittedly unlikely) event Miller's career gets back on track this season, this series of moves avoids using up one of his option years, and should the Indians choose in the next year to restore him to the 40-man roster, he will have at least one option year left and will remain under club control at least through 2016. Reyes remains optionless, of course, but still hypothetically could remain under club control through 2013.

The Indians also declined to offer a contract to reliever Jose Veras, who was arbitration eligible, rendering him a free agent, and there is no indication he will be re-signed. Cleveland's 40-man roster now stands at 37, with 18 pitchers and 19 position players.

The Indians did tender a contract to pitcher Rafael Perez, who is eligible for arbitration (and to the other 28 players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible). The non-non-tender to Perez was non-unexpected, despite a disastrous season in which he was the fourth-worst reliever in the majors (min. 30 IP) per WXRL, which estimates a reliever's actual impact on the chance of his team winning or losing games. (That's "Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted," if you must know. BP rates Perez as merely the 10th-worst reliever at preventing runs from scoring, but because he blew more runs than his peers in high-leverage game situations, his negative impact on wins and losses was more substantial.)

Perez spent almost two months in the minors but still qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player with several weeks to spare. As a relief pitcher coming off a terrible season with barely enough service time to qualify, Perez is in line to be awarded perhaps the smallest salary of any player going to arbitration, probably less than $1 million. It's worth recalling, at this point, how outstanding Perez was in his truly super two-plus seasons prior to this one. He had a 2.89 ERA (and 152 ERA+) over 149.1 IP. He struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings, with 3.7 strikeouts for every walk. He held lefties to a .241 slugging percentage and allowed them only nine extra-base hits in 249 PA. As long as we keep tendering him contracts, he remains under club control through 2013, and there is a reasonable chance he will re-emerge as an impact reliever, or at the very least a useful one, at some point in that span.

Other notable non-tenders include former Indians Ryan Garko and Ryan Church. Garko of course was traded to the Giants only months ago for a decent enough pitching prospect. Just 115 abysmal AB later, Giants GM Brian Sabean is now saying he doesn't want to pay upwards of $3 million to a guy who isn't really an everyday player. I'm not saying he's wrong, but it's a pretty hilarious statement to make for a guy who will still owes $83 million to Barry Zito for the next four seasons. McCovey Chronicles has a pretty dead-on take on Sabean's curious sequence of decisions. My theory is that you just can't understand how slow this guy is on the basepaths until he's actually on your team, and maybe Wedge actually deked the Giants with respect to Garko's athleticism by playing him in the outfield.

Expect the cleveland.com crowd to clamor for Garko's return, oblivious to the fact that two teams have now deemed him unworthy of an everyday role in the space of just a few months. Despite high regard for his character, I would be surprised if Shapiro brought him back, even at a substantially reduced salary. I rather expect Garko will be signed by a GM who scouted him as a college player and was impressed with his stroke. As a lefty batter, Church doesn't really fit in with the Indians' plans. Other interesting non-tenders include Pirates closer Matt Capps, Yankees sinkerballer Chien-Ming Wang, and third baseman Garrett Atkins. Atkins is perhaps best remembered as the guy that the Indians never even considered trading Aaron Laffey to get. I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians took an interest in Mike MacDougal; they seem to like guys who used to be closers.

As for Miller, these moves were unusual, reflecting an unusual situation. The "non-tender" deadline traditionally involves only players who are arbitration-eligible, as there is little reason not to tender a contract to any player on the 40-man roster who isn't eligible, since the most the team can be compelled to pay such a player is the minimum salary, which will remain $400,000 for the 2010 season. Many such players will make less than half that much, if they don't spend much time in the majors.

The latest in Miller's deathless progression of rehab setbacks occurred after rosters were frozen for the Rule 5 draft. Otherwise, the Indians might have chosen to DFA Miller prior to that point, exposing him to waivers. That might have cost the Indians the rights to Chuck Lofgren — but then again, maybe not. The Indians might have protected some other on-the-bubble prospect like Yohan Pino, in which case, Miller's delayed setback actually saved the Indians from burning an option year on whoever-that-would-have-been. And even if Miller clears waivers (and later, presumably, also clears the Rule 5 draft), he would have been granted minor league free agency anyway, since he was originally signed more than six years ago.

In that sense, non-tendering Miller, while unusually, was actually a more straightforward path to the same destination. Either way, he ends up as a free agent, free to sign with any club, but this way, he doesn't have to pass through waivers first. Miller obviously felt some combination of organizational loyalty and faith in the club's ability to rehab him back into a prospect, assuming that's even possible. Reyes has spent far less time in the Indians organization, but he had the same options as Miller and made the same choice. If either player was actually worth something anymore, we might consider feeling good about that.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:11:17 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

This week turned out to be all about Rafael Soriano for the Atlanta Braves.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on December 13th:

In the Press...

There were early rumors, then more rumors, and finally Rafael Soriano decided to accept arbitration from the Braves.
Soriano was quickly traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for another bullpen arm, Jesse Chavez.
There were early reports at the Winter Meetings that Kelly Johnson was in high demand on the trade market, but apparently that was not the case as the Braves non-tendered Johnson yesterday.
Ryan Church was initially DFA'ed to make room for Soriano on the roster, and then he was non-tendered later in the week.
The Braves have shown some interest in free agent Xavier Nady.
Matt Diaz was re-signed for the 2010 season by the Braves.

At Talking Chop...

For a complete and detailed recap of the Braves happenings at the Winter Meetings, click here.
I penned a post hoping that the Braves stay away from Mike Cameron.
CB previewed the Rule 5 draft, and correctly called that Edgar Osuna would be the guy off the Braves roster who was selected. He was selected by, surprise, the Royals. Those Royals also signed two other ex-Braves players.
Talking Chop got the exclusive scoop on all the Braves minor league and international free agent signings.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

jdunk asks the if trading Derek Lowe will make the Braves better.
Meanwhile, JKowalek thinks the Braves and Cubs should make a swap involving Lowe.
And AndrewWK wants the Braves to swap Lowe for a speedster.

Coming up tomorrow on Talking Chop, the combined community top-25 Braves prospects.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:51:04 -0000

by Keith Birmingham - AP

Another day, another picture of Randy Wolf.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while making your pitch to Gatorade.

It's been roughly 24 hours since we were told the Brewers were "very close" to a deal with Randy Wolf, but said deal has yet to materialize. Both Tom H. and Buster Olney are saying the Brewers are expecting a response today, now that Arn Tellem has had a day to shop the offer around, but reportedly hasn't found anyone willing to match it. Other notes on Wolf:

Tom H. says he "gets the feeling that the Brewers are suprised that Randy Wolf hasn't accepted their three-year offer yet."
Jayson Stark heard that the Brewers' offer to Wolf was bigger than the three year, $28 million deal the Braves recently gave Tim Hudson.
Jon Heyman tweeted that the Mets don't appear likely to land Wolf, and while MLB Trade Rumors lists them as showing interest in five other pitchers, Heyman says the price of mid-level pitching might drive them to spend a little more in pursuit of John Lackey.
The Junkball Blues has a look at the average return teams get on three year contracts to starting pitchers. There are some good ones (Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett), but also some disasters (Adam Eaton, Jason Schmidt, Carl Pavano).
Jorge Says No! wonders about the wisdom of offering Wolf a third year, but says the Brewers' willingness to do it implies they don't think they can sign Prince Fielder to a long term deal.

By the way, over two months ago Jorge Says No! predicted Wolf would get three years, $31 million on the open market. Impressive.

I feel the need to clarify my position on the Wolf rumor a bit, because I feel I was a little hard on the front office in this one act play last night. I still don't think Wolf wants to play in Milwaukee, which is why Arn Tellem has spent the last 24 hours searching for anyone on a coast willing to match the Brewers' offer. With that said, I'll give credit where credit is due to the front office for finding the guy they wanted and being aggressive in an attempt to get him here. If it turns out that the scenario I laid out is true and Tellem was just using the Brewers to raise the price for someone else, so be it. At least we're talking about the Brewers making an effort, and not hearing the reasons why they can't.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are close to a deal to bring Claudio Vargas back for another season, and are just waiting for formal acceptance from Vargas and his agent (FanShot). Conversation on the deal is probably complicated a bit by the fact that Vargas is currently in the Dominican Republic pitching in winter ball.

They're also expecting an answer sometime today from Craig Counsell, who may or may not be seeking a two year deal for next season. It sounds like Counsell and his agent spent the day yesterday checking out other options. Don't be surprised if a deal gets done relatively quickly.

Ken Macha told reporters yesterday that Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra are the only pitchers guaranteed a spot in the Brewer rotation next season, implying that Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will have to compete to earn an opportunity (FanShot). Open competition should be good for all involved, especially if the Crew manages to bring in some high-upside pitchers to compete.

Tom H. has all of those notes (and a terrible headline) in his roundup piece today, along with this note: The 40 man roster is starting to fill up, so don't be surprised if the Brewers decide not to take a chance on a Rule 5 pick in tomorrow's draft. I think that's a poor decision. Among others, Tim Dillard and Luis Cruz could probably pass through waivers without much notice. Passing on a cheap lottery ticket to protect one of those guys doesn't seem to make sense.

In the minors:

Project Prospect has a look at the speed of several Brewers who recently performed in the Arizona Fall League. Jonathan Lucroy appears to be in about the middle of the pack, while Taylor Green rated out way on the low end. They mustn't have had enough data to publish a ranking for Lorenzo Cain.
Angel Salome will be the next Brewer prospect to head out for winter ball: He's reportedly leaving at the end of the week to play for Este in the Dominican League. You can keep up with him and all the Brewer winter leaguers in our Winter League Updates.

We're continuing the effort to put together a BCB All Decade Team, and if you haven't cast your first votes yet, there's still time. Voting at first base will remain open until 4 pm today, and voting at second base runs until 4 pm tomorrow. Check back later today to vote for a shortstop.

Around baseball:

Braves: Designated outfielder Ryan Church for assignment.
D-Backs: Acquired pitchers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in a three way deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and outfielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke to the Tigers.
Mets: Signed 1B/3B Mike Hessman to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed outfielder Jerry Owens to a minor league deal.
Phillies: Signed Ross Gload to a two year deal.
Pirates: Are expected to sign Bobby Crosby to a one year deal.
Tigers: Signed catcher Robinzon Diaz, who was recently released by the Pirates.
Twins: Designated Boof Bonser for assignment.
White Sox: Signed Mark Teahen to a three year, $14 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Yankees: Will receive the #1 pick in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft as the PTBNL in the Brian Bruney trade.

Meanwhile, ~~Gritty von Canthitalick~~ Jason Kendall continues to search for work, but there's more suitors than you might think: The Rangers are reportedly strongly considering Kendall, now that Jarrod Saltalamacchia injured his shoulder playing winter ball. The Royals have also expressed interest.

From surprising news to what might possibly be the week's least surprising news: John Lackey is having a hard time finding a team willing to offer him a six year deal.

Actually, this might be the most surprising news: Kudos to the BBWAA for their decision to allow Sean Forman of Baseball Reference to join their organization.

We could have used this days ago, but Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has a guide to deciphering sources in Winter Meeting rumors. Again today, the meetings provide us with some things you might never have known without the internet, and wouldn't have missed:

Michael Tucker, who hasn't played in the majors since 2006, is in Indianapolis and wants to play next season.
Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson heard about a trade offer the Diamondbacks made for him and was offended by it.
C. Trent Rosecrans gave the Meetings' Best Hat Award to Manny Acta.
Blue Jays beat reporter Jordan Bastian gives us a look at the hotel lobby, complete with Christmas tree.
Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com had to step away from the meetings for a moment to help his mom figure out the TV.

On this day in 1977, the Brewers traded pitchers Jim Slaton and Rich Folkers to the Tigers for Ben Oglivie. The 29 year old Panama native would spend the last nine years of his career as a Brewer, hitting .277/.345/.461, leading the AL with 41 home runs in 1980, and appearing in three All Star games.

Happy birthday today to:

Doc Medich, who made the final ten starts of his major league career for the 1982 Brewers, and turns 61.
Ed Romero, who spent parts of eight seasons as a Brewer in the late 70's and 80's and later served as a minor league infield coordinator and manager. He turns 52.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some snowblowing to do.

Drink up.

Ryan Church DFA'ed by Braves

gondeee — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:08:10 -0000

Outfielder Ryan Church was designated for assignment by the Braves on Tuesday. In all likelihood this is a move to make room for Rafael Soriano on the 40-man roster. Church was likely not going to be tendered a contract later this month anyway, this way they may get something in return for him as they have 10-days to trade him or release him. Church stands to make several million more than the minimum next year through arbitration, and that's several million more than the Braves probably want to pay him

If they release him, then that ends the trade lineage of Jeff Francoeur. I said when we got Church, that he was a guy we could release whenever we wanted to, whereas Francoeur was not.

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Tuesday: Pavano Accepts Arbitration

Jesse — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:33:42 -0000

9:00 pm - Random update from Jon: I'll be on Seth Stohs' podcast about 9:25pm Central time, presumably to make jokes about Nick Punto showing up at the Winter Meetings to dive headfirst into Marirott lobby plants.

3:05 pm - Over at LEN III's blog he chats about Bonser's departure, done in order to create room for Pavano on the 40-man roster. He also continues to speculate that Perkins could be traded, and brings up something that's been discussed here before but would be an immense surprise to me if it actally happened: the potential for Jesse Crain to be non-tendered.

2:35 - Aaron Gleeman re-Tweets from Lyle Spencer: Twins are interested in Robb Quinlan, and they aren't the only team to be so inclined.

2:20 pm - Peter Gammons is to leave ESPN following his assignment at the Winter Meetings. I love Gammons, so this makes me sad. Hopefully he continues to be a baseball correspondent in some form.

2:05 pm - As noted in the comments and courtesy of Kelsie Smith, the Twins have designated Boof Bonser for assignment. Au revoir, Boof. It's a shame it has to end this way, because I really do think he had something to offer this club. Unfortunately he's become a casualty of depth; it's a shame he couldn't be traded.

1:05 pm - A few notes on names of interest as the first big trade of the Winter Meetings nears completion (Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks)...

LaTroy Hawkins is hoping to get a deal done with the Astros. Hawkins turns 37 in a couple of weeks.
Sounds like the Orioles are still the leading candidate to land Dan Uggla.
As fischean pointed out, Ryan Church has been designated for assignment. Does anyone think the Twins would be interested in him as a fourth outfielder?
This three-way deal sounds like it'll be a pretty big deal...

Noon - From LEN III's mid-morning update...

The Padres want to speak to the Twins about Kevin Kouzmanoff. Remember when we were talking about him for about four straight days last year?
Sounds like the agent for Pedro Feliz wants to feel up out the Twins as well.
He believes Boof Bonser could be made available, and that the Padres (probably in relation to Kouz) might be interested in Glen Perkins.

11:15 am - Joe C. projects that if Pavano makes $7 million through arbitration (I still want to think that's high) then Minnesota's opening day payroll is already at $90 million--without making another move or extending Joe Mauer.

11:05 am - Kelsie Smith has an email from Pavano where he explains why he's staying with the Twins. I don't want to share the whole thing, because Kelsie deserves a look for having it in the first place, but this line struck me:

Or I accept arbitration and work out a deal with a team that is strong in character and talent, as I have already experienced, with a staff that is the one of the best I've had in baseball, and in a division where our rival last year is rumored to be unloading some of their top players with other teams in the start of a rebuilding phase.<.i>

10:40 am - Over at his blog, LEN III speculates that with Pavano accepting arbitration, Glen Perkins is expendable pitcher numero uno. Do you agree?

6:30 am - Rounding up some Twins-related news from yesterday before we kick off the second day of the Winter Meetings.

Carl Pavano was one of three potential free agents to accept arbitration, along with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano. And that's...pretty much it! Perchance day two will bring more news, but I guarantee it'll continue to bring more speculation...

Talking Chop Round Table: Braves Right Fielders

gondeee — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:36:15 -0000

As part of season reviews for major league players and top prospect ranking for minor league players, we here at Talking Chop thought it would be a fun idea to get all of our bloggers together with the help of Google Docs and debate the various aspects of each position in the Braves organization.

The participants are, yours truly (gondeee, indicated by MG), yondaime4 (indicated by MF), royhobbs (indicated by DH), and cbwilk (indicated by CBW).

The round table for center fielders in the Braves organization is after the jump.

MG: Should the Braves give the right field job to Jason Heyward before spring training, or should they take a wait and see approach and see how his spring training goes before giving him the job?
MG: I'm of two opinions on this. One, I really want to see Heyward make the jump to the bigs and become all he can be. I wanted to see it last year, and I sure as hell want to see it as soon as possible next year. On the other hand, with the lost time in the AFL he just might not be ready, and the last thing we need is to bring up our brightest young star since Chipper Jones before he's ready. I have this idea that assuming the Braves get a "good" left fielder, they should plan on starting Matt Diaz in right (despite the defensive drop), and let him play right until Heyward is ready. Diaz can then spell both corner outfield spots and pinch hit.
CBW: I don't think they should give him the job before Spring Training, or even after Spring Training. I think they should do exactly what they did with Tommy Hanson, let him play in AAA for two months, until he proves without a doubt that he's ready, and also happens to bypass the possibility of becoming a Super 2 in arbitration, before they call him up June 1st. This scenario certainly will make some folks upset, as it likely means you have to go with a lesser player in RF for a few months (though if that guy is Matty Diaz, that's not too bad) and of course you'll run into the problem that if he does finally come up and dominate there will be people coming out of the woodwork, maybe even teammates, saying that he should have been there from the outset. But, this isn't about what makes people happy, or even really about what makes the team better for the first few months of the year, this is about what's going to be best for Heyward and the Braves long-term. My argument with Tommy Hanson has been that without those two months of AAA at the start of the year, he wouldn't have been ready and able to play well from the outset of his Major League career, and I'm taking that same argument with Heyward. The kid is 20 years old and he can learn a ton from a couple of months in AAA, enough to make him an instant force when he does reach the bigs. And, because he'd be skipping out on being a Super 2, the team would have more money a few years down the line to put pieces around him. To me, this scenario is the one that makes the most sense, and I'm betting it's the one that actually happens.
DH: Jordan Schafer and Tommy Hanson—good example of both scenarios. People will complain about the necessity to breathe air if they could, so complaining about some baseball decisions should be a given, no matter the path taken with Jason Heyward. People were unhappy when the league and an injury caught up to Schafer. People were unhappy when Hanson came out of the gate strong and that he should have been called up sooner—seriously I'd never expected to see so many people upset at seeing a young stud being 5-0? I am 100% in the camp that Heyward starts in AAA, or I'm not even going to rule out AA, regardless of how absurd his numbers in Spring Training might be. I've often felt that ST is nowhere close to gouging talent as much as it is a bunch of guys getting their bodies in shape for the rigors of the season. Pitchers are still trying to regain full arm strength, and a lot of people are coping with the cold in the early parts of the regular season; Schafer, who is a notoriously hard-worker might've (obviously) been in much better conditioning shape in ST, and blew away Blanco and Anderson, and forced the org's hand, before his stumble. Gauge the talent in games that have meaning—start Heyward in the minors, let him prove himself, save the money, and call him up at a good point where the team could use the adrenaline shot. As CB mentions, if "being stuck" with Matt Diaz, is the result in RF, we could do, loads worse.
MF: A couple of weeks ago I might have said yes, just let him do it because it is the simplest solution to our OF problems and I don't think, even if he were to struggle that he would produce less than Frenchy did last year. That said, with his recent injuries, I'd like him to get some time in AAA just to get his bearings. The X-Factor in all of this is Bobby Cox, because Bobby loved the guy last ST, and if Heyward comes in and pounds the ball this year he may say he wants him in Atlanta.

MG: Does anyone think we'll keep Ryan Church around next year? I have a feeling the Braves will non-tender him. Should we keep him around? Is there any reason to? Doesn't Brandon Jones fill that role if Atlanta needs him to?
DH: The question I have is, are there any other teams who would want him? He can play all outfield positions, adequate with the bat, and has some patience. I'm not necessarily convinced that Brandon Jones could produce at the Major League level as Ryan Church could offensively, and I like Church defensively a lot more than Bjönes. I make no assurance to knowing exactly how the process works, but whether or not any other team really wants Church or not, I don't see any harm in floating him a minor-league deal, and see what happens.
CBW: Personally, I'm a huge fan of Ryan Church, and as inneffective as he seemed to be for the Braves, he was still a ridiculous upgrade over Jeff Francoeur. Seriously, check the stats again, Frenchy was that bad. But, I don't think I love him enough to see him make 3 millon dollars as a backup outfielder. He's a smooth outfielder with the ability to play all three positions and he's got enough double power to see him being useful off the bench, where the fact that he swings from the left side is a huge plus, but that's a lot of money when the Braves need to bring in a real slugger, and I just don't see being able to tie it up. Also, Church seems to be hitting a huge downswing, possibly caused by injuries. Now, I don't neccessarily think Brandon Jones is the answer either, cause I don't think he'd be effective as a bench player, but there are any number of guys that could be signed as a free agent, even a minor league free agent, to come in and be a worthwhile backup outfielder. If they can non-tender Church and re-sign him to a Minor League deal, one that has a much cheaper salary for him should he make the team, I'd love to see him back.
MF: I think if we don't plan on bringing up Heyward as our opening day RF then keeping Church makes a lot of sense. Last year the reason why we didn't have a winning record in the first half of the season is because our entire OF was putting up sub .700 OPS. If we get the same production from the guys we have now whether it be Heyward or Church in RF and Diaz and McLouth (or even Schafer) in the other spots, I don't think we will get any guys putting up sub .700 OPS. If that happens we could be battling with the Phillies for the division lead. The real question is whether we want to pay Church or not, and if we do pay him his Arb raise, will we be able to move him when Heyward is ready.

MG: After Heyward I don't have a lot of faith in any of the Braves right field options. I went with Daniel Falcon as my number-2 RF prospect because at this point he has the most upside.
CBW: But really, after Heyward, what else do you need? When you've got a guy who could be a once in a generation star it's hard to expect the team to have much else at the same position. The fact that we have Cody Johnson and Adam Milligan in left field (as well as Robby Hefflinger, who I think is goig to be right with those two this time next year) and lesser, but still interesting prospects like Cory Harrilchak and Kyle Rose in center field, makes me think Atlanta's minor league outfield situation is pretty great. I don't think much of Falcon, or Anthony Feliz. In doing the writeup, I had a hard time finding much positive to say about them. Even if they both went to Rome in 2010 and had outstanding seasons, they'd still be a little old for me to be too excited about it. Heck, Falcon is the same age as Luis Sumoza, and Felix is older, and even though he had a down year, at least he's dominated short season ball, something neither of them have done. Chris Shehan is a decent player, and he might be able to rebound, but he's older and at best I really see him as a platoon/backup player. All of this makes me wonder why you guys were so willing to discount Jon Mark Owings. He had a bad year, but that was pretty much entirely due to the partially torn rotator cuff he suffered last year in the Carolina League playoffs. Ernesto Mejia didn't have a great year and only played in 36 games, but we had him 3rd on our 1B list. If you look at their 08 seasons in Myrtle Beach, they're pretty close, and while JMO loses some for being a year older than Ernie, he also isn't a complete defensive liability, in fact, he's an excellent outfielder. JMO is probably a better prospect than Shehan, Falcon, or Feliz, and maybe even better than Sumoza.
MF: CB's point is valid, just like what I was saying in the last roundtable. So what if our depth isn't great if we have a RF for the next 6 years? I'm not saying you don't need depth, but its not nearly as important when you don't have many glaring holes in the majors for the next couple of years. Concepcion Rodriguez played this season as a 22 year old in AA which is fine by me if you are looking for a backup OF. Sure he was pretty bad for most of the season, but he wasn't fall off the map bad and he was playing in Mississippi which can kill hitters. I will say I am not a fan of anyone else on the list really. Sumoza still has a chance, but he really needs to start harnessing his tools.

MG: To me, Luis Sumoza has fallen out of prospect status.
CBW: I guess it all depends on your definition of prospect status. He certainly wasn't considered for the Top 25 anymore, that's for sure, but I don't think he's done as a player or anything. He's only going to be 21 going into next year, so there's plenty of time for him to get better and this is the first time since his first go-round in the US (as a 17 year old) that he's struggled. The fact that he had trouble taking a walk is a huge concern and the massive amount of outfiled errors make me wonder how bad he really is in the field, but there are things to like. Even with the poor season, 28 is a ton of doubles to hit, and he's got a little bit of speed. I don't think he's a big time prospect, but I didn't really think that when we got him, and he's going to have to repeat Rome and prove something, but I'm betting he has a much better 2010.
MF: He still needs to walk more and he needs to tap into his raw power. It is all there, but he is becoming more of a tease than a real prospect in my eyes. I give him one more year.

MG: You guys seem to think pretty highly of Concepcion Rodriguez... why?
CBW: Well, he's a pretty prototypical outfield athlete and he had a great 2008, so there was some good reason to be excited about him coming into the year. And, frankly, he's fun to watch play. He's a natural athlete and he just looks smooth. I'd never see him becoming a star outfielder, but he could become a pretty good one, something like a David DeJesus. Once you look at his splits, you see that the biggest problem he had this year was dealing with Mississippi's park. It victimized a number of guys and made their years' look terrible; he hit .229 with a .534 OPS at home, compared to . 295 and a .753 OPS on the road. That's just a sign that he's not as bad as his totals make him look. (For reference about just how good Jason Heyward is, Mississippi's park didn't affect him at all; on the road for Mississippi he hit .342 with a 1.062 OPS compared to a .360 average and 1.055 OPS at home. Wow.)
MF: Why not? When compared to everyone else on this list he is the most advanced guy we have not named Heyward and he posted an .800+ OPS in 2008 in a league with an average .712. Ok his 2009 was pretty bad, but he was still only about 50 pts below the league average OPS and it was his first run through AA. I'm not saying this guy will ever be an every day RF for anyone, but I think he has the best shot out of the guys we have. He probably needs to walk some more and he needs to find that power that Mississippi took from him this year. And I would also like to point out that his OPS on the road this season was .752 which is about the league AVG in the southern league. We aren't looking at a star here, but he will be just 23 next season which is far from the end of the road for a prospect in the upper minors.

Top-5 Off-Season Questions for the Atlanta Braves: #5

gondeee — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:42:03 -0000

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

Ryan Church and Kelly Johnson may not find themselves in the Atlanta Braves plans for 2010.

Browse more photos »

We conclude our look at the top-5 questions facing the Atlanta Braves this off-season.

Question Five: To Tender or Non-Tender

One of the repeated questions I was asked on blog-talk radio shows this season was how long Jeff Francoeur was going to be in a Braves uniform. My repeated answer, and one that I put in post after post on this blog, was that he would not be in a Braves uniform through the end of the season, but that the Braves were unlikely to just release him. The logic followed that the Braves had built this guy up too much to just "waive" him goodbye, they had to get a warm body for him. Enter the Ryan Church trade. Church gives the Braves a player that they can cut ties with without the big media frenzy and the fairweather fans screaming, "but not Francooerrr." By trading him during the season, at least there was the distraction of games to be played to misdirect attention.

So there you have it, the Braves will release Ryan Church this off-season. Church is a third-year arbitration case who made $2.8 million last year, and would likely get a raise to over $3 million next year regardless of his 2009 numbers. That's way too much for an oft-injured fourth outfielder.

The Braves will also release Kelly Johnson this off-seaosn.

Wow, I really said it. This is a very similar situation to the Marcus Giles situation several years ago (which actually was the impetus for moving Kelly to second base). Giles was coming off a poor season in which the Braves had a tight payroll and through arbitration he was due a big raise. The Braves tried and tried to trade him, but every other GM knew that the Braves couldn't afford him, and they didn't want to give up players and more money by trading for him. This is exactly the situation we find ourselves in with KJ. Yes, Cox came out and gave Kelly a vote of confidence, but I bet you can find a similar quote from Cox at the end of the 2006 season about Giles, and Marcus had a much better year that season than Kelly did this year.

As much as many Braves fans like Kelly, the fact is he just hasn't lived up to his promise, and the Braves can't pay him many millions just to see if he finally will next year. Yes, the Braves will try and trade him, and we'll hear plenty of rumors, but that ain't happening, and the Braves will release him.

Brooks Conrad will also be non-tendered. As good as he was for a few weeks during his mid-year call-up, he was only 1-for-18 as a pinch hitter -- that one hit was a three-run game-winning homerun in his first at bat as a Brave. The Braves may offer him a minor league contract and another invite to spring training, but not a major league contract or a guaranteed spot on the 40-man roster.

Brian Barton, gone. Greg Norton, mercifully gone. Buddy Carlyle will probably get released, but with an eye towards a minor league contract and an invite to spring training. Ditto for Jorge Campillo.

Eric O'Flaherty, he'll be back, as he was a pleasant surprise. I can't see the Braves parting ways with any other pitchers, other than the ones listed above and the annual parting of the ways with Vladimir Nunez. I get this feeling that there will be a lot of new faces added to our bullpen or potential bullpen mix this off-season. Bobby Cox needs more relievers he has confidence in, and I feel there will be a lot of auditions going on in spring training.

Matt Diaz will be offered a contract, and will get a hefty raise -- this is one of the reasons I think he'll be a prime trade candidate. He's good, but the Braves covet a power bat, and they may be able to match up with a team who would prefer the Diaz approach to hitting. I would rather keep him, but as I said in the first post today (question one), I don't see how he fits in the outfield with Heyward and a power bat that would presumably play left.

That's all for the top-5 questions, I hope you enjoyed them. I initially thought these five questions would be just one post, but they sort of spiraled out of control, so thanks for reading (if you've gotten this far).