SB Nation - Brian Schneider

Does Anyone Like the Phillies' Lee Trade?

David S. Cohen — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:24:34 -0000

This is an honest question. Outside Phillies reporters (or ex-reporters) who rely on access to the team in order to put food on their table each day, are there any analysts who like what the Phillies did with Cliff Lee?

Obviously I can only read a small portion of what's out there, but what I've read isn't pretty. (And I agree with it.) Below is my sampling. In the comments, please post links to what you've seen from other analysts about the Lee trade. And if you find someone saying the Phillies did the right thing here, I'd in particular like to see that.

Matt Swartz, Baseball Prospectus: "The only team that does not necessarily come out ahead in this is the Phillies. The team really made two separate trades—three prospects for Roy Halladay conditional on an awesome extension, and Cliff Lee for three inferior prospects. The former will turn out to be a success and the latter will not. . . . The issue I take is that they could have non-tendered Joe Blanton (or, better yet, traded him for some inferior prospects) and Chad Durbin and won two or three more games in 2010 at the same $9 million salary. I say that even as someone who believes Blanton is vastly underrated, but they could have gotten better value by doing that. If Blanton was worth nothing on the trade market (which I am skeptical about), then the Phillies were foolish to offer him arbitration—clearly no one else would have even offered him his arbitration estimate on the free-agent market, so why pay him that much? Figure out what other teams would pay him and offer him that and a cookie."

Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus: "This, in fact, gets to my biggest problem with the sequence: Roy Halladay just left $60 million on the table to come to Philadelphia. The Phillies couldn’t leave $9 million on it in pursuit of putting him on the best team in baseball? . . . The Phillies play in a taxpayer-funded ballpark, have been to back-to-back World Series—with all the direct revenue that generates—and will no doubt pack Citizens Bank Ballpark again in 2010 with another three million people paying even higher ticket, parking, concession, and souvenir prices. To trade away Cliff Lee in a blatant money move is utterly ridiculous under those circumstances, and worse still, turns the Roy Halladay trade into little more than a minor upgrade."

Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus: "Less certain is the necessity of coupling this trade with the deal that put Lee in Seattle. Even if you accept for the sake of argument the suggestion that Amaro had to work within a budget, and that he had to have one or the other, this seems to suggest that the Phillies just blew it by being active early and, true to form, acted fast. If payroll's a problem, then the money spent on Placido Polanco or Ross Gload or Juan Castro or Brian Schneider—in short, the entire pack of elective add-ons, these veteran talents barely above the free-talent alternatives or players making close to the minimum—deserves to be seen collectively as needlessly spent money on players who don't significantly alter the Phillies' chances at a third pennant, not nearly so much as having a rotation with Doc and Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels gives you a rotation that might have been able to handily beat the best the AL might throw at you, and start a case for elevating the Phillies to dynastydom."

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs: "The Cliff Lee to Seattle portion of this trade just seems very light in return for the Phillies. They’re getting two power arms with a lot of questions marks and a speedy center fielder without a lot of power. None of these guys are top tier prospects. This is the best Philadelphia could have gotten for Lee? Really? A pu-pu platter of interesting, high-risk guys not really close to the majors for a Cy Young-quality pitcher who is already well on his way to Type A free agency? And, even if that’s true, why clear $8 million from the books by trading Lee? Surely, you could have moved Joe Blanton without eating any of his salary, even if you didn’t love the deals being offered. Or, how about this – don’t sign J.C. Romero, Brian Schneider, and Ross Gload, whose 2010 salaries are about equal to Lee’s. Replace those three reserves with league minimum guys and you’ve saved enough money to keep Lee around."

Evan Burnell, Hardball Times: "The Phillies overextended themselves financially last year and are trying to keep payroll steady (the $6 million they're receiving in the deal helps tremendously). In addition, the prospects back to Philadelphia help to replenish a farm system gutted by the Lee and Halladay trades. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, I don't think they're receiving anything more than midlevel prospects who are a long shot to have long-term value in town. They all look like eventual major leaguers, but are they anything more than replacement level? We can't answer that definitively. I do credit GM Ruben Amaro, however, for recognizing the need to replenish the farm system. [On the other hand,] the Seattle Mariners made a tremendous move acquiring Cliff Lee for three prospects that don't rank as even guaranteed future major leaguers."

Washington Nationals: C Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez And Jesus Flores.

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:07:06 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

The Washington Nationals will introduce new catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez tomorrow afternoon (12/11/09) at Nationals Park. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Yahoo!Sports.com's David Brown did not include the Washington Nationals' free agent signing of veteran catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez on his list of the best moves of the recently-concluded '09 Winter Meetings entitled, "Indianapolis Jones and the Winter Meetings: The top 10 deals", but they do earn honorable mention under the subheading, "Best of the rest", where Mr. Brown writes that, "It's easy to knock the Nats," for signing the 38-year-old, 14-time All-Star, Gold Glove-winning catcher to a 2-year/$6M dollar deal to act as a mentor/backup to a hopefully-healthy Jesus Flores, because, at least to Mr. Brown, "...it makes little sense."

Everyone got a good laugh, even Jim Bowden himself...

(cont.)...

Everyone got a good laugh, even Jim Bowden himself, out of the new XM MLB host openly questioning the signing by comparing it to the Nationals signing Paul Lo Duca and Dmitri Young, and praising Rodriguez's agent Scott "Maximum" Boras for getting, "...a two-year guaranteed contract for a 38-year old catcher with an on-base percentage of .280," but what I found humorous, in the transcript of the conversation between Bowden and co-host Steve Davis as it appears in D.C. Sports Bog writer Dan Steinberg's article entitled, "Jim Bowden criticizes Pudge Rodriguez deal", is how Mr. Bowden goes on to describe Rodriguez's motivation in accepting the Nationals' offer:

"Six million dollars at the end of your career, that's all it is. You don't sign there if it's not, because [they're] the only team that came to the table with $6 million and two years guaranteed."

You mean, sort of like the way Mr. Bowden lured Adam Dunn to DC? When Adam Dunn, believing he wasn't ready for semi-retirement as a DH in the AL, was expecting 4-years/$56M, found no suitors, and settled for the Nationals' 2-year/$20 million dollar deal, a little over a week after a "baseball source" let the rest of the baseball world know, in SI.com's Jon Heyman's article entitled, "Nationals still waiting on Dunn", that Dunn had an offer on the table that he would consider if there were no better offers...(Anyone? Anyone? Please?)...even though as Mr. Heyman put it, "...the Nationals' offer sat there so long (he) sent a clear message he'd prefer to go somewhere else."

But back to Yahoo!Sports.com's David Brown's opinion that the signing of "Pudge" Rodriguez makes no sense for DC...MLB.com's Bill Ladson cites an anonymous source in an article entitled, "Pudge deal with Nats awaiting physical", who says that the signing of a catcher capable of playing everyday and providing solid defense, if not much offense any more, makes sense with Jesus Flores recovering from a stress fracture in his shoulder, the result of a foul-ball direct-hit and a torn labrum which was discovered when Flores attempted to return to the lineup late in '09 just to hit though he wasn't healthy enough for full-time action. So this time around, according to Mr. Ladson's "source":

"[The Nationals] want to go slow with Flores...By June, Flores and Rodriguez may split time, or [Riggleman] may go with the hot hand. We know this -- Rodriguez is not going to play 100 games."

In 2007, Flores, who had to remain on the 25-man roster since he was a Rule 5 pick, proved to be a little more advanced than expected, playing 79 games as a backup for Brian Schneider, who started 129, and hitting for a .244 AVG with a .310 OBP, .361 SLG and a .671 OPS. In 2008, Washington brought Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada in because they were unsure Flores was ready for the full-time job, but he outplayed both veteran catchers and was the clear-cut starter when he was injured in a collision at the plate with Chase Utley that ended his season in early September. 2009 was a wash for Flores, as he was injured in early May by the foul ball that caused a stress fracture in his right shoulder, which effectively ended his season, before the torn labrum officially ended it after three games in the second week of September.

With Flores on the DL in 2009, the Nationals were left with Josh Bard and Wil Nieves splitting time behind the plate. Bard hit .230 with a .293 OBP, .361 SLG, a .655 OPS, 18 doubles, 6 HR's and 31 RBI's. Defensively, Bard made 5 errors, allowed 3 passed balls and posted a .988 FLD%, while throwing out 27% of the runners who attempted to take bases on his arm. Nieves provided pretty much the same thing he had in the previous season, putting up a .259 AVG, .313 OBP, .299 SLG and a .612 OPS with 6 doubles, 1 HR and 26 RBI's in 72 games, over which he committed 6 errors, allowed 4 passed balls and had a .986 FLD%, with 28% of stolen base attempts turned back...

Rodriguez's projected stats for 2010 according to the Bill James Handbook 2010? (Over 113 G): .266 AVG, .302 OBP, .397 SLG, .699 OPS, 20 doubles, 8 HR's and 40 RBI's, .22 K/BB. Defensively in '09, even in his "declining years", Rodriguez had a .992 FLD%, with 5 errors in 115 games, over which he threw out 22 of 53 runners who attempted to steal, (32%)...The Bill James Handbook has Jesus Flores hitting .265 in 116 games and 431 AB's in '09, with 22 doubles, 13 HR's, 75 RBI's, a .323 OBP, .415 SLG and a .738 OPS. (0.33 BB/K)...and over his career, he's caught 161 games, with a .990 FLD%,10 errors, 13 passed balls allowed, (12 of which were thrown by Daniel Cabrera, just kidding), and a 31% career CS%, having thrown out 38 of 123 runners who have dared...

Clearly the Nationals will be going into 2009 with the best catcher tandem, in Rodriguez and Flores, they've had since moving to Washington ? (Sorry, Schneider!)...And they're much better off than they were last season with Bard and Nieves...as long as Flores can stay healthy...Still don't think it make sense?...WAR? According to Fangraphs.com: Pudge was worth (+0.8) in '09, and the Fangraphs.com Fan Projections have him at (+0.6) in 2010...Jesus Flores in '09 (+1.0)...(+0.7) in '09 for Bard...Nieves in '09 (+0.3)...How's DC GM Mike Rizzo's approval rating after the Winter Meetings?

• Washington Post writer Alexa Steele put up a post at the Nationals Journal Thursday night entitled, "Free agent signing set for Friday", which announced that the Nationals would introduce their new catcher in a press conference Friday afternoon (12/11/09) at 1:00 pm in Nationals Park.

Poll

What Is DC GM Mike Rizzo's Post-Winter-Meeting Approval Rating?

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Felipe Lopez reacts after learning Doug Melvin has decided not to offer him arbitration, against the advice of roughly 90% of the BCB community.

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Some things to read while raising your expectations.

Actually, lowering your expectations might be a better move. An already disappointing Brewer offseason got even worse yesterday, as the Crew declined to offer arbitration to all five of their Type B free agents, forfeiting any chance to receive compensation picks when/if they signed with another team (FanShot).

Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which players should receive offers. 202 voters weighed in, and here are the results, as promised:

Felipe Lopez, 88%
Mike Cameron, 48%
Braden Looper, 7%
Jason Kendall, 3%
David Weathers, 3%

So, nearly 90% of what I consider to be a pretty knowledgeable community of Brewer fans wanted the team to go one way with Lopez, and Doug Melvin went the other. If that's not a microcosm of the offseason so far, I don't know what is. We split pretty much down the middle on Cameron, which is interesting, and the small percentages of votes for Looper, Kendall and Weathers are proof that some Cub fans stopped by to vote in the poll. Thanks for visiting.

Here's some more reaction from around the web:

SgtClueLs of Fire Doug Melvin, which likely gained some new bandwagon members yesterday, has a how-to guide on screwing up arbitration.
The decision earned Melvin a special distinction over at Brew City Sports.
View From Bernie's Chalet doesn't get the logic.
In-Between Hops doesn't get the outrage.

If it makes you feel any better, several other teams didn't offer arbitration to any of their free agents, either. Amazin' Avenue has the full rundown of arb offers: 32 players were given the option, out of a possible 68. There is a small silver lining there: Because the supplemental round is now guaranteed to be no longer than 32 picks, the value of the Brewers' second round pick in the draft just went up a bit. It will continue to increase if players accept arbitration or re-sign with their own teams.

After reading today's news, I'm sure you're itching to run down to Miller Park and give the Brewers more of your money, right? Well, you're in luck: the Clubhouse Sale is this weekend, giving you the opportunity to check out some discounted Brewer items and game-used memorabilia. You probably won't be as lucky as Tom H., though, who once purchased the final Brewer jersey worn by Julio Machado.

Of course, it's not all bad news today: The Brewers also officially announced the signing of John Halama.

In the minors:

Prospects Paradise has the Brewers' State of the System up, with scouting reports on eleven Brewer prospects. Overall, they give the organization a C for Impact Talent and a C- for Depth.
The Baseball Chronicle is on a mission to rank the top 200 prospects in the minors. Alcides Escobar checked in at #27 and Brett Lawrie is #57.

Around baseball:

Braves: Have reportedly reached a deal with Billy Wagner on a one year, $7 million deal with a vesting option for 2011.
Phillies: Signed catcher Brian Schneider to a two year deal.
Rays: Designated reliever Jeff Bennett for assignment and acquired Kelly Shoppach from the Indians for a PTBNL.

With the Rays acquiring a catcher yesterday, it's becoming increasingly likely they'll non-tender incumbent catcher Dioner Navarro. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times lists the Brewers as one of ten teams that could be interested in his services, but whiffs on their current situation, listing Angel Salome as the top internal option.

At least we still have the Rule 5 Draft, right? Bucs Dugout has a look at another potential pick: Yankees pitcher George Kontos.

Sometimes I'm just not in the mood for heavy statistical analysis and whatnot, but I know some of you always are, so here's a post from Baseball Analysts on salary and WAR, looking at the correlation between the two. It's the kind of thing I'd attempt to comprehend on a normal day. Today, I'm just not in the mood.

There's a new leader in the clubhouse in the competition for minor league baseball's greatest logo. Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you the Richmond Flying Squirrels. (h/t Baseball America)

Yesterday I mentioned the Baseball Hall of Fame's Facebook fan page, and later realized it's been a long time since I've plugged ours. If you're a fan of BCB, you can show it to the world by adding us here. Oh, and follow us on Twitter, too.

No Brewer birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a posthumous happy birthday to Darryl Kile, who would have turned 41.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some traveling to do.

Drink up.

Alex Cora vs. Brian Schneider

James Kannengieser — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:46:35 -0000

No analysis, no judgment, no nothing. Just a simple poll.

Poll

Which is a wiser transaction? (from the team's perspective)

Mets sign Alex Cora for 1 year, $2M with a $2M 2011 vesting option

266 votes

Phillies sign Brian Schneider for 2 years, $2.75M

241 votes

507 votes | Poll has closed

Phillies sign Brian Schneider

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:27:37 -0000

More photos » by Seth Wenig - AP

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The Phillies have signed catcher Brian Schneider, SI.com's Jon Heyman is reporting. Schneider, a career .251 hitter, played in just 59 games with the Mets last season.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Schneider	59	170	11	37	11	0	3	24	18	21	0	0	.218	.292	.335

Schneider will likely back up for starter Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz played well for the Phillies last season, especially in the postseason, and has a good relationship with his pitchers. Schneider is an excellent clubhouse player who has spent his entire career in the NL East, a total of 10 seasons with the Expos, Nationals, and Mets.

Rosterbation-Mania!

U-God — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Raise your hand if you want to play for the White Sox next year. Esteban, please put your hand down. Seriously though, Esteban, you aren't welcome. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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Over the past couple days, and inspired by the infamous U.S.S. Mariner post and the on-going reader input over at Sox Machine, I've been putting together my off-season plan. I tried to keep it as realistic as possible (no video game trades), especially in terms of payroll. Feel encouraged to leave your own roster plans in the comments section. U-God's 2010 plan lies after the jump.

Free Agent Acquistions:

DH- Nick Johnson, 1 year/5.5 mil

I love Jim Thome and always will. He is my back-up plan. With that being said, I would be thrilled if KW went out and got Nick Johnson. The 31 year old lefty has a career .849 OPS fueled largely by his .402 career OBP. Johnson also allows us to rotate Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin in at DH as well. He does come with injury-risks, but using him mainly as a DH in combination with one of the premier medical staffs in baseball should counteract that. The injury risk combined with the down market should allow the Sox to grab him at a reasonable price for a year.

RF- Marlon Byrd, 1 year/4.5 mil

Byrd would be a very refreshing change of pace out in rightfield. He has posted an OPS above .800 each year since joining the American League and has been an above-average defender in right as well. His career high 20 homers last year will guarentee him a raise, though probably a modest one. Byrd also provides a nice stop-gap for our outfield prospects.

C- Brian Schneider, 1 year/1.5 mil

Schneider's days as a starter are over. He's a lefty-catcher who has had good success stopping opponent's run games (38 CS%). Being a backup drops his price tag and lowers his risk of getting hurt again.

1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, 1 year/1.5 mil

Bring him back. He was good after we traded for him and gives Ozzie more flexibility with his bench and lineups.

Contract Extension:

Offer John Danks the Jon Lester deal (5 years/30 mil). It's a back-loaded contract that buys out John's arbitration years and allows him to hit free agency at age 31. It may take more money to lock him up, but for simplicity's sake, I'm just going to use the Lester deal.

Batting Order:

DH- Nick Johnson, 3B- Gordon Beckham, LF- Carlos Quentin, 1B- Paul Konerko, C- A.J. Pierzynski, CF- Alex Rios, RF- Marlon Byrd, SS- Alexei Ramirez, 2B- Chris Getz.

That OBP in front of Beckham gives me dirty thoughts.

Bench:

C- Brian Schneider, 1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, UTIL- Jayson Nix, OF- Alejandro De Aza

Nix gives pop off the bench and De Aza gives Ozzie a speedy pinch-runner for late in the game.

Starting Rotation:

Jake Peavy-RHP, Mark Buehrle-LHP, Gavin Floyd-RHP, John Danks-LHP, Freddy Garcia-RHP

I like the idea of having Peavy and Garcia pitch back to back.

Bullpen:

Bobby Jenks-CL, Matt Thornton-LHP, Scott Linebrink-RHP, DJ Carrasco-RHP, Tony Peña-RHP, Jhonny Nuñez-RHP, Randy Williams-LHP

I wanted to trade Jenks, but his value is too low right now and I don't want a repeat of the Nick Swisher trade.

Other Costs:

$1 mil buy-out for Jermaine Dye

$.35 mil for Mike MacDougal, damn him

Team Payroll:

$96.65 mil, only .55 higher than last season's opening salary. All figures (except my FAs and arbitration guesstimates) taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Elijah Dukes Will Run Through Walls. Washington Nationals 4, New York Mets 3.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 04:20:27 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' starter J.D. Martin, pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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We've learned two things about Elijah Dukes this year:

1) You don't run on Dukes.

2) Elijah Dukes will run through walls.

If David Wright didn't know that second one already he found out as he came around first and watched Elijah Dukes run full speed into the out-of-town scoreboard in right to rob Wright of a potentially game-tying extra base hit with two out in the top of the ninth tonight in DC's 4-3 win over New York. Dukes' catch gave Mike MacDougal his 18th save in 19 opportunities a half-inning after Washington took the lead with the help of two errors from NY's middle infielders. The Nationals take their second straight over the Mets and set themselves up for the sweep in the last home game of 2009 tomorrow afternoon. (ed. note - "And I'm telling you right now...Teddy Roosevelt will win tomorrow, buy your tickets so you can say you were there...") (ed. note - "The previous opinion is in no way based on facts, just gut feelings, like Riggleman!!")

BACKPAGE:

• Martin v Pelfrey.
• Elijah SSSSSUPER DUKESSSSS!!!! F.O.D.&D. Rejoice! Desmond Does It Too!!!
• Adam Dunn Gets The Beyond The Box Score Treatment.

• Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

• Check Out the SB Nation's NY Mets Blog: Amazin' Avenue OpenThread.

• LINK: Game 157: Enjoy 2B Next Year, Guz..." - Doghouse.

• For The Completists, Full Game Report After The JUMP...

Nationals now 54-103. (Countdown To 100 Losses, Over For Days Now).

BACKPAGE:

• Martin v Pelfrey. J.D. Martin gets himself in trouble early, giving up a leadoff double to Angel Pagan and letting Luis Castillo reach base on a sac bunt attempt. David Wright walks to loaded the bases and Carlos Beltran walks too to force in the first run. 1-0 NY. Martin gets a line drive to short, a fly ball to short center and an out at second to escape further damage, but he gets right back in trouble in the second. Wilson Valdez doubles to start the frame, moves to second on a sac bunt by the Mets' starter and scores on an Angel Pagan single for a 2-0 lead. David Wright doubles Pagan in, 3-0 Mets.

• Mike Pelfrey retires the first eight batters he faces before allowing a bloop single to the opposing pitcher in the bottom of the third. The Mets' right-hander throws four scoreless for NY, holding DC to just a walk and a single, but the fifth starts with "Pinch Hittin'" Pete Orr singling on an 0-2 fastball up and out over the plate. Ian Desmond's up next and the Nationals' rookie shortstop gets a 1-2 fastball from Pelfrey that doesn't quite make it inside, Desmond explodes on it, launches it to left and GONE!! Two-run HR, 3-2 NY. Two outs later, still in the fifth, Willie Harris and Elijah Dukes hit back-to-back singles and Mr. Gold Glove Himself, the one and only Ryan Zimmerman gets two straight and I mean "straight" fastballs inside, the second of which is lined to left for Zim's 103rd RBI and the 3-3 tie.

• J.D. Martin ends up throwing four scoreless after the rough start, and leaves after 6.0 IP, having given up 7 hits, 3 ER and 2 walks, but the win ends up going to DC reliever Tyler Clippard who throws 2.0 scoreless, the second of which I still can't believe he escaped. Clippard gave up back to back singles to Carlos Beltran and Daniel Murphy, then walked Jeff Francoeur to load the bases with no outs and the score tied at 3-3 tie in the eighth. Former Nationals' catcher Brian Schneider (Call us, Brian?) does Washington a solid by popping out unproductively and pinch hitter Jeremy Reed lines to second, Alberto Gonzalez catches it, throws to first, Francoeur's out, (where was he going?) DOUBLE PLAY!! Clippard's one lucky reliever...

• Mike "Danger" Morse walks with one down in the Nationals' eighth, Justin Maxwell takes over on the basepaths, and pinch hitter Cristian Guzman follows with what should be a double play, but Anderson Hernandez fields at short and tosses one low to Luis Castillo, and right by second, both runners safe. Ian Desmond follows with another DP grounder, Anderson Hernandez gets to it behind second, tosses to Castillo, Castillo fires wide of first and out of Daniel Murphy's reach, Desmond's safe. Maxwell scores from second, 4-3 DC!!

• Top Of Ninth...Mike MacDougal comes on to close it. Cory Sullivan K's swinging. Angel Pagan...singles, (3 for 5), but MacDougal paints the outside corner to get Luis Castillo looking with Pagan still at first. David Wright, works the count full and destroys a 96 mph MacDougal heater. Wright drives it to right, Elijah Dukes sprints toward the wall, and runs into the out-of-town scoreboard as he makes the grab, Dukes bounces of the wall, falls back and rolls to his feet, then jumps up pounding his chest!!! SSSSSUPER DUKESSSS Runs through walls! Nationals win, 4-3 final.

LINK:

• Adam Dunn Gets The Beyond The Box Score Treatment.

Walter Fulbright has an article up at Beyond The Boxscore, the SB Nation's "Saber-Slanted" blog, entitled, "The Two Sides Of Adam Dunn: Graph Of The Day", in which Mr. Fullbright determines that Adam Dunn is, "...still a superstar, just playing out of position because he no longer has one," and recommends that fans, "...start a letter writing campaign to see if we can find the Nationals an American League trading partner." Dunn ranks dead last on Mr. Fulbright's league-wide UZR chart and the BtB writer's description of the nation's capital's favorite first baseman is at odds with most of what I've heard from the DC Faithful:

"Adam Dunn can't hide his failings at the cold corner. Whatever advantage he has for reaching to balls above his head (a pretty low percentage play anyway) are absolutely obliterated by his inability to scoop balls in the dirt, either from throws or from ground balls. He's so completely top heavy that he has an inherent disadvantage to those born with the virtue of just being closer to the ground. This is a pretty definite trend, he has roughly the same power off the bat as when he was 23, only with 60-70 more pounds packed on, his defense has gone from pretty bad to awful to absolutely unacceptable."

Check out Mr. Fulbright's article HERE or in the title link above to see how he reached his conclusions. Let him know what you've seen from Dunn...

GAME REPORT:

New York Mets At Washington Nationals. Game 157 Of 162.

DC right-hander J.D. Martin takes a deep breath, stretching his jaw as he does, then he exhales and fires the first pitch home to Angel Pagan. Pagan ends up doubling to right off the out-of-town scoreboard to start the game with a runner on second. Luis Castillo bunts to third and J.D. Martin cuts Ryan Zimmerman off to field and not throw to first. First and third for David Wright. J.D. Martin walks the bases loaded and goes 3-0 to Carlos Beltran, hitting the outside corner for 3-1 and getting a foul for another full count. Then Martin walks Beltran and walks in a run, 1-0 New York. Daniel Murphy lines toward short, Ian Desmond catches and holds it. Jeff Francoeur flies out to short center, and Willie Harris catches it coming in to hold Castillo at third. Brian Schneider lines to Pete Orr to end the threat with just the walked in run scoring...Willie Harris pops out to left to start the bottom of the first. Mets’ righty Mike Pelfrey gets a weak grounder to third from Elijah Dukes. Ryan Zimmerman grounds out to short.

Wilson Valdez doubles over short to start the second. Mike Pelfrey bunts to Adam Dunn, who can only throw to first. Angel Pagan singles to score Valdez and it’s 2-0 New York with one out in the second. Luis Castillo pops out to left. David Wright doubles off the base of the wall in left, Pagan scores from first, 3-0 Mets. Carlos Beltran grounds out to first, Adam Dunn fields it and hustles to first...Dunn leads off DC’s second with a swinging K on a bender off the plate. Mike Morse grounds out to Wilson Valdez at short. Pete Orr grounds to Castillo at second and it’s 3-0 NY after three.

Willie Harris has to run way into left to catch a line drive off Daniel Murphy’s bat. Francoeur flies out to Elijah Dukes in right. Brian Schneider grounds out to first and Dunn tosses to Martin to end the Mets’ third...Ian Desmond flies out to right field. Mike Pelfrey gets off the mound quickly to field a dribbler toward third and throws a strike to Daniel Murphy at first to get WIl Nieves. J.D. Martin sends a bloop single to center for the Nationals’ first hit. Willie Harris walks. Elijah Dukes rolls the third out to short.

Wilson Valdez grounds out to Pete Orr. Mike Pelfrey’s groundout rolls over the first base bag to Dunn. Angel Pagan sends Mike Morse sprinting back to make an overhead catch for the final out of the Mets’ fourth...Ryan Zimmerman grounds to short, Wilson Valdez double-pumps and throws to first. Adam Dunn flies out to deep center. Mike Morse grounds out to short, Pelfrey’s got four scoreless.

Willie Harris takes two steps back and catches a line drive off Luis Castillo’s bat. David Wright pulls a bender over third and into left for a one-out double. Carlos Beltran grounds weakly to second. Daniel Murphy flies out to Mike Morse and it’s 3-0 NY after four and a half...Pete Orr smacks a single through short. Ian Desmond goes deeeep to left on a high inside fastball and it’s GONE!!! Two-run HR, 3-2 NY. Wil Nieves grounds out to WIlson Valdez at short. J.D. Martin K’s swinging over a two-strike sinker. Willie Harris sneaks a grounder under a diving Luis Castillo at second. Elijah Dukes singles to center, but Willie Harris holds up at second. Ryan Zimmerman gets a fastball before it gets inside and singles to center to score Harris. 3-3. Adam Dunn grounds out to first, tied after five.

Jeff Francoeur lines to left, Morse misjudges it but hustles back to make a leaping catch. Brian Schneider throws his bat at a fastball and singles to center. Wilson Valdez sends a fluttering line drive out to Willie Harris. MIke Pelfrey flies out to right...Mike Morse grounds out to third. Pete Orr grounds to Daniel Murphy at first. Ian Desmond slides in safe at second on a one-hopper to third that gets by David Wright and rolls out to left. Wil Nieves lines out to right.

Tyler Clippard starts Angel Pagan with three balls and then blows Pagan away. Ian Desmond throws out Luis Castillo. Clippard gets Wright on a called strike three, 3-3 in the seventh...Alberto Gonzalez grounds to Murphy at first. Willie Harris flies out to center. Elijah Dukes grounds one through Pelfrey’s legs for a two-out single. Ryan Zimmerman flies out to right, 3-3 after seven.

Carlos Beltran singles to center to start NY's eighth. Daniel Murphy rips a grounder by Dunn at first, Beltran takes third. Jeff Francouer walks to load the bases for Schneider. Brian Schneider pops out foul of third. Pinch hitter Jeremy Reed hits a broken bat liner to second, Frenchy gets doubled up!!...Adam Dunn K’s and Pedro Feliciano’s out after one batter. Mike Morse vs Sean Green. Morse walks, Justin Maxwell on to run. Cristian Guzman will hit. Guzman grounds to second, Anderson Hernandez tosses it but Castillo at second, both runners safe. Ian Desmond grounds to second, Anderson Hernandez knocks it down, tosses to second, Castillo....throws it wide of first, Maxell scores, Desmond's safe. 4-3 NY. Francisco Rodriguez comes on. Desmond takes third without a throw. Angel Pagan makes an underhand catch on a line out by Alberto Gonzalez.

Mike MacDougal vs Cory Sullivan. Angel Pagan lines off Zimmerman’s glove and into left. Luis Castillo takes a called strike three for out No. 2!!! David Wright flies to deeeep right, Elijah Dukes tracks it and catches it as he hits the wall at full speeeeed. SSSSSUPER DUKESSSSSS!!!!!!!! Sets up the sweeeep!!!!

Nationals now 53-104.

Washington Nationals Hand New York Mets Sixth-Straight Loss, 6-5 In Citi Field.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 04:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

3 months ago: Washington Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman, center, is congratulated by teammate Josh Willingham, right, after driving-in Cristian Guzman, left, with a two-run home run in the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets at Citi Field in New York, Friday, Sept. 18, 2009. (AP Photo/Henny Ray Abrams)

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• Ryan Zimmerman’s 2-run home run off Mike Pelfrey in the first is Zimmerman’s 30th of the season. The Nationals’ 1st 1st Round pick is now 6 over his previous season high of 24 set over 162 games back in 2007. Zimmerman now has 30 in 142 games played in '09, and he put Washington up 2-0 over Pelfrey and the New York Mets after one...

• J.D. Martin got through two scoreless, but gave up a leadoff double to Wilson Valdez in the third. After a sac fly by Pelfrey, the Mets hit back to back singles with Angel Pagan knocking Valdez in and taking third on a low liner to center by Luis Castillo. One out later, after Josh Willingham leaps at the wall to rob David Wright, Carlos Beltran singles in the second run with the fourth hit of the inning and it's a 2-2 tie.

• Josh Bard, who came into the game with a .167 AVG with 4 hits in 24 September at bats, so of course, Bard gets a hold of a sinkless sinker from Mike Pelfrey and launches it to right center, and just into the bullpen for a two-run HR that scores Ian Desmond, who’d doubled to the corner in left to start the fifth. 4-2 DC...

(The SHOCKING Conclusion After The JUMP)...

• Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

• Check Out The SB Nation's Mets Blog: Amazin' Avenue Open Thread.

• "Game 147: Yeah, it's the Mets, but a win is a win" - Doghouse.

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The JUMP...

Nationals now 51-96.

• J.D. Martin walks Carlos Beltran to start NY’s sixth, and gives up a one-out single to Jeff Francoeur before he’s lifted from the game after (5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 3 K's)....Ron Villone takes over, and walks the first batter he faces, Fernando Tatis, to load the bases, and Villone gives up a line drive to left to Wilson Valdez, Josh Willingham charges in to catch Valdez’s liner and the Hammer throws home as Beltran tags from third, Bard catches the throw on one hop, reaches across the plate and makes the tag as Beltran slides around and reaches for the dish..., "You’rrrre OUT!!!" yells the Ump as he punches the air.

• Elijah Dukes scores the Nationals’ 5th run of the game after a throwing error on an excuse-me single in the seventh...Dukes takes second after Mets’ catcher Josh Thole throws by first on Dukes' dribbler. Ian Desmond’s grounder to second moves Dukes up to third and Josh Bard drives in another run with a sac fly to center for a 5-2 DC lead.

• Best and Worst Of Bergmann And MacDougal...

Jason Bergmann started the eighth by striking out both David Wright and Carlos Beltran, Wright with a heater, Beltran with the curve (he still can't hit those!), but then Rutgers' Finest gives up a two-out single to Daniel Murphy and another single to Jeff Francoeur, and DC closer Mike MacDougal has to come out in the eighth for the 4-out save. MacDougal strikes out backup backstop Josh Thole to strand Murphy and Frenchy and preserve the 5-2 DC lead.

• STOP: Hammertime - Top of the ninth...Josh Willingham leads off against Brian Stokes. Stokes throws a first-pitch fastball and instantly regrets it, 94 mph coming in, and gone just as quick, Josh Willingham hits his 23rd HR of 2009 and knocks in his first run since September 4th...

• Back To MacDougal... It's at this point that Mike MacDougal decides he'll continue the "DC Closer Tradition of 'Making It Interesting'", walking the first batter of the ninth, before popping up pinch hitter Jeremy Reed...and walking Angel Pagan...Luis Castillo singles, bases loaded, David Wright singles, 6-3 DC. Carlos Beltran grounds into a force but scores a run. 6-4. Daniel Murphy rips a hotshot to short, Ian Desmond stabs it and throws high to first and off Adam Dunn's glove. Castillo scores, 6-5. Jeff Francoeur rips one to the mound that takes MacDougal's glove off his hand, the pitcher recovers, throws to first, ballgame.

• E: 125, 126.

E: 125 - 2nd Inning, Jeff Francoeur pops up foul of first, Adam Dunn tries to stay with, tries to make the catch...and...drops it. Dunn's 15th Nick-Johnson-esque error is the Nationals' 125th as a team. OUTCOME: Francoeur flies out given another pitch, and Brian Schneider flies out to end the inning. No harm. E: 126 - 6-4 Nationals, bottom of the ninth, Mike MacDougal's reeling, and Daniel Murphy rips a two-out one-hopper to short, Ian Desmond stabs it with his backhand but throws high to first, Dunn leaps, but it's off his glove. Desmond's 3rd is DC's league-leading 126th. OUTCOME: A run scores on the error to make it 6-5, but MacDougal recovers to end it one batter later.

GAME REPORT:

Washington Nationals At New York Mets. Game 147 Of 162.

Mike Pelfrey’s on the mound for the Mets, Willie Harris leads off for DC with a fly ball to Carlos Beltran in center for the first out of the game. Daniel Murphy tries to toss a weak grounder to first with his glove, but it doesn’t quite work, Guzman’s safe. Ryan Zimmerman goes the other way with a low fastball outside and just gets it over the fence for a 2-run blast and a 2-0 DC lead. Adam Dunn fouls off a few full-count pitches and flies out to Angel Pagan in left. Josh Willingham swings over a two-strike sinker inside...Josh Willingham pulls up just short of the wall in foul territory in the left field corner to catch Angel Pagan’s fly ball out. Luis Castillo throws his bat at a two-strike fastball outside for a swinging K. David Wright rolls the second fastball he sees out to third for Zimmerman to handle.

Elijah Dukes rrrrips one back off the pitcher’s feet, and David Wright can’t make a barehand play. Dukes safe. Ian Desmond grounds to second, Luis Castillo tosses to second for the force but Dukes’ slide into Wilson Valdez ends any chance of a DP. Josh Bard gives them another chance, grounding to Luis Castillo to Valdez to Daniel Murphy at first, double play...Ian Desmond dives over a grounder from Carlos Beltran who’s on first to start the Mets’ second. Daniel Murphy K’s swinging over a two-seam slider that breaks outside at the last second. Adam Dunn drops a foul pop off Jeff Francoeur’s bat, but Frenchy just flies out to left unproductively given the second chance. Brian Schneider flies to Willingham to end the second.

J.D. Martin grounds out to Wilson Valdez at short. Willie Harris flies out to Carlos Beltran. Cristian Guzman flies out to Pagan in left for a quick 1-2-3 by Pelfrey...Wilson Valdez rips a double by Josh Willingham and to the wall in left. Mike Pelfrey’s sac bunt moves Valdez to third. Angel Pagan drives a sinking fastball outside through second and into center. Valdez scores, 2-1 Nationals. Luis Castillo hits a low liner back up the middle for the third hit of the inning. David Wright flies to deeep left, WIllingham leaps at the wall, and makes the grab!! Hammer!!!! Carlos Beltran sneaks another single under a diving Desmond at second for an RBI single and a 2-2 tie. Daniel Murphy flies out to center to end the frame.

Ryan Zimmerman starts the fourth with a single back over the mound and up the middle. Adam Dunn flies out to Angel Pagan in left field. Josh Willingham lines on one hop to Beltran in center. Elijah Dukes grounds to Valdez at short, to Castillo to Murpy, double play...J.D. Martin gives up the second straight leadoff double, this one to Jeff Francoeur. Brian Schneider takes a free pass. Wilson Valdez grounds to second, Desmond, to Guzman to Dunn, double play. Francoeur to third. Pelfrey grounds back to the mound, 2-2 ballgame.

Ian Desmond pulls a hanging bender to left for a leadoff double. Josh Bard gets a sinkless fastball over the heart and takes it deeeep to right and gone, two-run blast, 4-2 Nationals. J.D. Martin takes a fastball for a called strike three. Willie Harris swings through a fastball for the second out. Guzman chops one slowly to Pelfrey to end the inning...Angel Pagan grounds out to second to start the Mets’ fifth. Josh Willingham charges in to catch the second out off Luis Castillo’s bat. J.D. Martin throws a high two-strike fastball by David Wright for a swinging K to end the frame.

Ryan Zimmerman rips a line drive right at Angel Pagan in left. Adam Dunn flies out to left for David Wright. Josh Willingham swings through a high fastball for the second-straight K to end the sixth...J.D. Martin walks Carlos Beltran to start the home half of the frame. Daniel Murphy sends a high fastball out to Willlie Harris in center. Carlos Beltran’s running as Jeff Francoeur lifts a low slider to center for a one-out single. J.D. Martin’s lifted. Ron Villone vs Fernando Tatis. Tatis walks to load the bases for Wilson Valdez. Valdez lines to left, Willingham catches it coming in and fires home as Beltran tags from third, Josh Bard catches it on one hop and tags Beltran before his hand slides over the plate. "You'rrre OUT!" yells the UMP.

Elijah Dukes surprises the new catcher with a swinging bunt on a fastball inside, and Dukes is safe when Josh Thole throws it by first. Dukes takes second. Ian Desmond does his job, grounding Dukes over to third. Josh Bard flies out to center, Dukes tags and scores. 5-2 DC. Mike Morse grounds a few feet in front of home for the last out of the inning...Sean Burnett takes over on the mound. Gary Sheffield sends a screamer right into Ian Desmond’s glove. Sean Burnett gets a swinging K out of Angel Pagan. Luis Castillo pops out to second.

Sean Green vs Willie Harris in the eighth. Harris grounds back to the mound. Cristian Guzman grounds out to Castillo at second. Ryan Zimmerman beats David Wright with a high hopper to third. Green out, Pedro Feliciano gets a fly ball to right center from Dunn to end the inning...David Wright vs Jason Bergmann. 92 mph fastball gets Wright swinging for the first out. Beltran swings over a two-strike bender from Bergmann. Daniel Murphy sneaks a single through second. First pitch fastball to Francoeur, who singles, and it’s first and third with two down after a double. Bergmann out, Mike MacDougal’s going to try for four outs. Francoeur takes second without a throw. Josh Thole swings through a fastball for strike three to end the eighth.

Josh Willingham gets a hold of a hanger from Brian Stokes and sends it out to left and GONE! HAMMER!!! 6-2 DC. Elijah Dukes flies out to left. Ian Desmond grounds out to short. Josh Bard pops up over short, Wilson Valdez makes the grab...Mike MacDougal looks to end it. Cory Sullivan walks to start the frame. Jeremy Reed flies out to Willie Harris in left. Angel Pagan takes the second walk. Luis Castillo singles by a diving Zimmerman at third to load the bases with one out. David Wright rips a single to right to score Sullivan. 6-3 DC. Carlos Beltran grounds to second, Desmond to Alberto Gonzalez to Dunn...not in time, 6-4 and two down. Daniel Murphy rips a hotshot to short, Ian Desmond stabs it, spins and throws high to first and it hits off Dunn’s glove, run scores, 6-5, second and third. Jeff Francoeur lines up the midd--MacDougal knocks it down and it knocks off his glove, MacDougal recovers and throws to first to end it.

Nationals win, 6-5 final.

Nationals now 51-96.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 14:58:15 -0000

More photos » by AARON J. LATHAM - AP

Mark DiFelice stretches his arm as he confers with catcher Mike Rivera in the fourth inning Sunday. DiFelice left the game with a strained shoulder. Hopefully we'll have an update on him soon.

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Some things to read while getting the perfect shot.

The Brewers finished off a sweep in Arizona with something that's been increasingly unlikely lately: a Sunday day game victory. The Brewers actually gained three games on the Cardinals this weekend, as they were swept in Atlanta while the Brewers were in Arizona. If that had happened a month ago, it'd be relevant.

The Brewers also recorded several milestones over the weekend: Ryan Braun picked up his 100th home run and Felipe Lopez collected his 1000th hit on Friday, and on Saturday Prince Fielder's solo home run tied Cecil Cooper's franchise record with 126 RBI. Several notes on Fielder today:

Keith Law doesn't like the Brewers' 2010 chances, and thinks they should trade Fielder this offseason and make an effort to rebuild.
Casa de Machado thinks Fielder will only hold the franchise RBI record until Ryan Braun hits 158 next year.
Since Fielder plays and bats fourth every day, he's singlehandedly responsible for the fact that the Brewers have received more production from the cleanup spot than any other team in baseball.

Casey McGehee also had a pretty good weekend. He reached base nine times over three days, and his 4-for-5, two home run performance Friday night tied a rookie franchise record with 6 RBI. I've been accused of loving McGehee since long before it was cool to do so, but I still hope he's building his trade value for the offseason, and not cementing himself at third base for the 2010 Brewers.

Trevor Hoffman said over the weekend that he's hoping to return to the Brewers next season, meaning he would likely record his 600th career save as a Brewer. Hoffman's been a pretty bright spot for the Crew this season and I'd welcome him back, as long as the Brewers don't have to go significantly over his $6 million 2009 salary.

Again, if you're trying to decide on a particular method for evaluating hitters, Jason Kendall is an excellent "smell test." Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases attempted to identify 2009's least valuable hitters, and Jason Kendall checked in at ninth.

In the minors:

The Brewer minor league season officially concluded yesterday, as the Huntsville Stars lost to Tennessee, and were eliminated 3-1 in the Southern League playoffs. The Stars went just 1-12 in their final 13 games.
The Brewers are going to spend some time this winter considering alternative methods of developing young pitchers. Gord Ash said the team is planning on holding a pitching symposium this winter with pitching coaches from all of the minor league affiliates to consider new ideas.
The Brevard County Manatees had the best season of any Brewer minor league affiliate, and they also swept the Brewer postseason awards, with Amaury Rivas and Logan Schafer winnning the Robin Yount Performance Awards given annually to the club's top minor leaguers (FanShot). The award is, of course, named after a player who ~~never played~~ appeared in just 64 games in the minors.
Brett Lawrie and the other Brewer minor leaguers playing for Team Canada in the Baseball World Cup suffered their first setback yesterday, as they were held to just one hit and shut out by team USA. Former Brewer R.J. Swindle is also a member of Team Canada, for whatever that's worth.
Prospects Paradise did a hypothetical 2009 draft, selecting as the Angels, and drafted two players who ended up getting drafted by the Brewers in the real draft: Del Howell (Brewers drafted in the 15th round) and Brandon Sizemore (drafted in the 30th round).

The Brewers held steady at #19 in Baseball Digest Daily's ASTRO Rankings.

Just one roster note around baseball today:

Mariners: Released reliever Stephen Kahn.

Sometimes a player comes along and puts everything in perspective. Take Miguel Olivo, for example. As Driveline Mechanics notes, he nearly never walks, swings and misses at 45% of pitches outside the zone, and as a batter, he's still much more valuable than Jason Kendall.

Here's another potential replacement to consider: Brian Schneider doesn't expect to return to the Mets next season.

I'm not sure which of these stories is stranger: A man arrested in Arizona for impersonating journeyman reliever Kiko Calero or Jeff Francoeur offering to trade his talent for a career as a country singer.

Here's an interesting note from the weekend: Will Carroll cited health as the best predictor of success, noting that seven teams will finish the season with at least six players with 500 plate appearances, and six of them are playoff bound. The Brewers narrowly miss the cut, with five players on pace and Craig Counsell and Corey Hart just below.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are on pace to become just the third team ever with seven players with 400+ PA and OPS+ over 120. The two previous teams to do it were the 1993 Tigers and 1978 Brewers. Both teams missed the playoffs.

Here's a cool idea I wish the Brewers would replicate: The Astros held a Fan Recipe Cook Off on Saturday, with the winner getting their recipe served at the ballpark next season. I'd love to compete in a contest like that. Or judge a contest like that.

On this day in 1975, the Brewers lost to the Red Sox 8-6, but the story of the day was Robin Yount, who went 1-for-5 while appearing in his 242nd game before his 20th birthday, setting a new major league record.

On this day in 1977, Ken McMullen, pinch hitting for Jim Gantner, homered in his final major league at bat as the Brewers beat the Mariners, 8-5. And in 1991, Cecil Fielder hit a home run out of County Stadium.

Happy birthday today to Joe Winkelsas, who appeared in seven games for the 2006 Brewers and turns 36.

That's all I've got today, unless you'd like to hear more about my new cell phone cover.

Drink up.

Mets should provide stepping stone for bounceback

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 19:45:10 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

The Mets might actually be better off if all their players just fell asleep. At least then, no one would get hurt.

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"Redemption can be found in hell itself if that's where you happen to be." --LIN JENSEN, Bad Dog!

Okay, so we're not exactly in hell, though some of us may have felt like it after losing five straight. Whatever low funk the Rockies are in though, it is time for redemption. The Rockies ought to be really mad. Last week was terrible and Colorado is primed to take out their frustrations on a lowly opponent. It doesn't help the Mets' sake that they embarrassed the Rockies in July. It's payback time, doubletime.

Since the Mets won that series six weeks ago, New York has come crashing to earth. That series against the Rockies marks the last time the Mets won three games in a row or even won a series. They have lost 9 of 11 and just finished a 10-19 August.

Their season has been nothing short of a tire fire. They ought to bench their first baseman, because his Law has completely governed their season. The rotation has entireely fallen apart - Nelson Figueroa and reliever Pedro Feliciano led the team with two August wins, and Jerry Manuel saw three left-handed starters (Niese, Perez and Santana, all of whom pitched against the Rockies last time) go down for the rest of the season with injuries. Overall, thirteen players are on the disabled list today, more than the Rockies have had all season.

Only four teams have more road losses than the "Amazin's," and since taking a series at Fenway in May, New York has lost 10 of 11 road series. Amazin Avenue had a well-recieved fanpost last Thursday begging Omar Minaya to replace the guy they were using as their cleanup hitter with Matt Murton. Man, this is brutal. I won't continue. It hurts.

Quite frankly, losing this series would be embarrassing. We need a sweep.

Check out Amazin Avenue if you want to see hurting Mets fans. I almost feel bad for them.

New York Mets (59-72, W2, 4th, 17.5 GB Div)

Tuesday-Thursday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: D

One might think that a lineup riddled with injuries and replacement players would experience great turnover. However, Jerry Manuel's lineup looks very much the same as it did when we last saw them - the only change is an underwhelming one in the 8-hole/shortstop. Francouer and Hernandez are both performing two levels higher with the Mets than their previous clubs, but it's not enough to make the lineup fierce. Wright should come off the DL in time for tonight's game - if not, Fernando Tatis will be starting at third.

The Mets' .321 team wOBA ranks 6th worst in the NL, not surprisingly placing them sixth from the bottom in runs scored. You won't see this team swinging for the fences - they rank dead last in HR in MLB with 76, a whole 18 less than the 29th ranked Giants. New York also has accumulated the lowest number of strikeouts in the league, helping them lead the NL in BB/K. They are largely a dink and dunk team. Basically, throw the ball over the plate - they can't hurt you too badly.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Angel Pagan - CF	.294	6	26	.340	.489	.352
Luis Castillo - 2B	.312	1	34	.402	.362	.348
David Wright - 3B	.324	8	55	.414	.467	.387
Daniel Murphy - 1B	.260	7	46	.315	.390	.307
Jeff Francoeur - RF	.271	11	64	.300	.406	.301
Cory Sullivan - LF	.258	0	9	.320	.360	.311
Brian Schneider - C	.189	3	24	.272	.318	.304
Anderson Hernandez - SS	.258	1	30	.319	.332	.288

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber player (Wright), two solidly above average hitters (Pagan and Castillo), four very below average hitters (Murphy, Francoeur, Sullivan and Schneider), and one flat terrible hitter (Hernandez). Just like last time, I can say the only legitimate threats are the top three in the lineup, but we know how much that can mean sometimes.

Jeremy Reed (.244, 0, 7), Nick Evans (.229, 1, 6) and Gary Sheffield (.279, 10, 43) are the backup outfielders while Fernando Tatis (.263, 7, 36) can play IF and OF. Wilson Valdez (.244, 0, 4) is on the bench as an IF, and Omir Santos (.267, 6, 37) is the platoon catcher. Rookie catcher Josh Thole got a callup today. Wright still needs to be activated from the DL if he is to play in tonight's game, though he will.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: D-

Rotation: This isn't how Omar Minaya pictured his rotation in September. There's no reason why a New York team should be playing a series with Mike Pelfrey (ERA+ of 88) as their best starter. Redding and Misch have been given up on as starters by poor teams and have been forced into the rotation based on injuries to Johan Santana and Oliver Perez. Basically, the 4th worst NL rotation by ERA got worse. Every member of the current rotation is below MLB average, and their season tRA is a troubling 5.14.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Francisco Rodriguez	3-4	58	0	0	0	28	5	59.0	43	25	20	6	33	61	3.05	1.29

Bullpen: K-Rod is fine as the closer, but there's no real help otherwise. Manuel still has two lefties in the bullpen with Pedro Feliciano and Ken Takahashi. Joining closer Francisco Rodriguez are righties Sean Green, Elmer Dessens, Lance Broadway and Brian Stokes. Feliciano, Green and K-Rod are worth worrying about, but the others are not.

The D: D-

New York has made 80 errors, good for 10th-most in MLB. However, by UZR, they have the worst range in the majors, which fangraphs takes into account to claim the Mets are MLB's worst defense. There might be some UZR issues at Citi Field though, as Wright, Castillo and Sullivan are all listed as below average defenders. Pertinent for any Coors series, CF Angel Pagan is listed as the only positive fielder.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Mike Pelfrey 9-9 25 25 0 0 0 0 146.1 167 84 78 10 55 84 4.80 1.52

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Mike Pelfrey	9-9	25	25	0	0	0	0	146.1	167	84	78	10	55	84	4.80	1.52

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	12-9	26	25	0	0	0	0	148.2	148	82	78	19	62	152	4.72	1.41

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Jorge De La Rosa 12-9 26 25 0 0 0 0 148.2 148 82 78 19 62 152 4.72 1.41

Pelfrey has only two starts in 25 this season where he was not scored upon, and one came against the Rockies in July. Since that game, he has gone 1-3 with a 5.10 ERA. He has a very poor 1.53 K/BB rate, which plays right into the Rockies' hands if they remain patient. The big difference from 2008 is Pelfrey's fastball, which has dropped from a stout 21.9 rating to -5.9 this year. Jorge de la Rosa has a dizzying streak of 18 straight starts that he's earned a decision in, having lost in his last start for just the second time in 12 outings. He has scuffled a bit lately but remains the better pitcher in the matchup hands down. Still, if the Mets hope to win a game in the series, this one is the most likely. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Wednesday, September 2, 6:40 pm MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Tim Redding 2-4 24 11 0 0 0 0 83.1 93 58 55 14 36 54 5.94 1.55

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Redding	2-4	24	11	0	0	0	0	83.1	93	58	55	14	36	54	5.94	1.55

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	12-10	27	27	1	0	0	0	181.1	153	69	67	10	69	158	3.33	1.22

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez 12-10 27 27 1 0 0 0 181.1 153 69 67 10 69 158 3.33 1.22

After losing his rotation slot in July after four bad starts, Redding is back thanks to injuries to his teammates. This will be his third start since returning, and he allowed just 3 runs on 6 hits in 11.1 IP in the first two starts. However, he gives up plenty of home runs, has a worse K/BB than Pelfrey, and has a season FIP and tRA in the 5's to support that ERA - he's having a bad year. Ubaldo Jimenez keeps building on the franchise record of 6+ IP starts. He threw 8.0 IP in four of his six starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in all six games. The Rockies' only loss in those starts was to Lincecum last Friday. As long as U-ball doesn't pull a Letdown After the Timmy Showdown, this is a no-brainer. Favors: ROCKIES extremely strongly

Thursday, September 3, 1:10 pm MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Pat Misch 0-1 20 1 0 0 0 1 29.0 30 11 11 1 15 15 3.41 1.55

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Pat Misch	0-1	20	1	0	0	0	1	29.0	30	11	11	1	15	15	3.41	1.55

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	14-9	29	26	2	1	0	0	177.1	172	77	71	12	55	86	3.60	1.28

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Jason Marquis 14-9 29 26 2 1 0 0 177.1 172 77 71 12 55 86 3.60 1.28

Misch, a former Giant, will be making his second start of the season. He did decently in the bullpen and allowed 1 ER in 7 innings at Wrigley Field in his first start, but I'd be remiss not to note he was facing the Cubs. He has very poor K and BB rates, albeit in a fairly small sample. The lefty's slider and fastball come in at about the same speed, but his stuff won't overpower you. Marquis is coming off his worst start since June at the Angels but allowed 2 ER over 17.0 IP in his last two starts at Coors Field. He has the chance to pull within one win of the NL lead in wins with Adam Wainright. Favors: ROCKIES strongly

My take

On paper, this series should be a sweep clincher on par with both Nationals series. Of course, actually pulling off a sweep is tricky business, and if good Pelfrey shows up tonight, we could have issues. Otherwise, this is a prime opportunity to take a stranglehold on the wild card again with the Giants in Philly. I would panic more from losing this series than having been swept by the Giants, and even winning just two games would leave a bit of an empty feeling. Go kill some Mets, please.

Luis Castillo, David Wright, Fernando Tatis, Angel Pagan, and Jeff Francoeur each hit over .300 with an .800+ OPS in August. Pagan hit all six of his home runs this season in the month, while Francoeur had 3 bombs and 10 doubles himself. K-Rod blew two straight saves in early August, permitting 7 ER in 1.0 IP over the two appearances, yet he has converted 4 straight opportunities and has 5 straight scoreless appearances.

Brian Schneider had only 4 singles, 3 doubles, one walk and 11 Ks in 48 August PAs. Gary Sheffield hasn't homered since June 28 and had a .670 OPS in August. Jeremy Reed has only 6 TB's in his last 28 ABs.

The Mets injury list is dizzying:

New York Mets Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Carlos Delgado	hip	05/11/2009
Jose Reyes	hamstring	05/21/2009
John Maine	shoulder	06/07/2009
Carlos Beltran	knee	06/22/2009
Fernando Martinez	knee	07/04/2009
Fernando Nieve	thigh	07/20/2009
David Wright	concussion	08/16/2009
Johan Santana	elbow	08/21/2009
Oliver Perez	knee	08/24/2009
Alex Cora	thumb	08/13/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Ramon Martinez	fingers	06/03/2009
Jonathon Niese	hamstring	08/06/2009
J.J. Putz	elbow	06/05/2009

Poll

Just how bad ARE the Mets?

They are really terrible. They're worse than the Nationals. Easy sweep.

47 votes

They are really terrible, but they will manage to win one game in the series.

73 votes

They are really terrible, but the Rockies suck right now, and we'll lose this series.

22 votes

They are really terrible, but the Rockies iz doomd to b swept.

8 votes

150 votes | Poll has closed