SB Nation - Omar Quintanilla

NL West in Review: 2nd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:36 -0000

Felipe Lopez only got in a half season in the NL West, but was he good enough to be the best 2B in the division in 2009?

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Introduction

Before getting to the second base rankings, I thought I would touch on a peripheral discussion on the accuracy of WAR. It is important to understand that even the WAR found at Fangraphs isn't absolute. The methodology of chosen inputs can make the final numbers vary slightly, or in some cases, drastically. The best example of this is this year's season by Ricky Nolasco, who was a 4.0 WAR pitcher from Fangraphs, but just a 1.0 WAR pitcher via Rally's historical database. The quick explanation is that Fangraphs' input is FIP, while Rally's is more based on actual runs allowed and BABIP.

In my case, I'm using Statcorner's component park factors, while Fangraphs has their own methodology for park effects. That is why some of my numbers will vary some from Fangraphs' data. For instance, I have Orlando Hudson as a 2.52 WAR second baseman, while Fangraphs has him at 2.9 WAR. Which is right? I think it's a matter of preference.

A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron wrote an article entitled WAR: It Works, which defended their methodology by finding a 0.83 correlation between a team's total WAR and final record (for comparison, Pythageorean W-L has a 0.91 correlation). So it does a decent job, but there's some understandable noise in the data.

Method

See the full methodology as explained last week. Last Monday, I omitted stolen bases and caught stealings from my value calculations. It turns out Fangraphs' positional splits are accurate to positional at-bats, and Baseball Reference's positional splits are not accurate for stolen bases and caught stealings. As it turns out, first basemen don't steal much, so that omission made practically no difference.

However, second basemen do tend employ the running game, so I did the extra legwork of utilizing ESPN.com's positional splits to extract SB/CS data. It didn't make a great deal of difference. Four teams saw their team wOBA* increase by .001, while the Rockies dropped by .001. Clint Barmes, who led all NL West 2B in caught stealings with nine, was the only prominent player to be affected, who dropped one slot in the rankings.

Read the results after the jump.

Results

No NL West team had complete personnel consistency at second base, but that didn't stop Arizona from far surpassing the rest of the division with some surprise production from their second-sackers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.298	15	49	.372	.448	.362	5.97
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	12	77	.356	.424	.347	3.19
3. Colorado	5	.231	31	98	.281	.441	.301	0.80
4. San Francisco	7	.236	17	80	.281	.329	.281	-0.26
5. San Diego	5	.246	2	58	.315	.314	.292	-1.04

Brendan Scolari's calculations had Arizona projected to be the weakest team at second base this season, but the other four teams fell in line as expected from there.

Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5.

The second base position was exceedingly interesting, in my opinion. To wit: the most valuable player was also the fifth least valuable fielder; the worst and best fielders came from the same team; the man with the third most homers was the fourth worst second baseman; and, one team had four second basemen in the top seven in the division:

There were 27 total second basemen, and you can view the complete rankings and data here in Google Docs. Here are the top and bottom five:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Orlando Hudson	LAD	627	.285	9	62	.359	.420	.345	-3.7	2.52
2	Felipe Lopez	AZ	375	.305	6	25	.366	.417	.351	3.8	2.25
3	Ryan Roberts	AZ	199	.303	7	16	.374	.506	.383	2.3	1.65
4	Clint Barmes	COL	551	.238	22	69	.286	.437	.301	7.0	1.60
5	Juan Uribe	SFG	131	.274	6	15	.331	.538	.380	3.5	1.25
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
23	Edgar Gonzalez	SDP	54	.234	0	3	.315	.319	.289	-2.1	-0.17
24	Ian Stewart	COL	73	.235	8	26	.274	.632	.349	-7.5	-0.39
25	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	102	.200	1	7	.294	.256	.266	-4.1	-0.48
26	Emmanuel Burriss	SFG	220	.238	0	13	.292	.267	.265	-3.7	-0.53
27	Eugenio Velez	SFG	106	.198	1	8	.226	.287	.231	-4.7	-0.80

Arizona

2009 in Review

Felipe Lopez barely played half a season for the Snakes, but his stellar first half offensively and plus glove defensively kept him in position to finish second best in the division. Ryan Roberts had the best rate stats of any divisional player with over 100 PA (he surpassed Clint Barmes for WAR when I added the SB/CS factor), and he was joined in the top seven by Augie Ojeda and Rusty Ryal, who led the entire team in wOBA in a small sample. All four players had positive UZR scores.

2010 in Preview

AJ Hinch will most likely choose either a starter from the pool of Ryan Roberts, Rusty Ryal and Tony Abreu going forward into next season. It is possible that an unnamed free agent would be thrown into the picture, but I personally don't expect it. The fact that the hands down best team at 2B in 2009 has such a question mark going into 2010 with only Lopez subtracted speaks to the relative weakness of the position in the NL West.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Clint Barmes had a heck of an enigmatic season. He was easily the most valuable defensive 2B and had more than twice the home runs of any other player. However, his Ryan Howard impression was completed by having a poor average and batting average, and he led the division in caught stealings, helping Roberts to surpass him. Ian Stewart was third in the division in home runs, but he posted the worst UZR by far, completely negating Barmes' defensive contributions, at least statistically. Omar Quintanilla contributed enough defensively to stay out of the bottom five despite a 2-for-28 mark with the bat.

2010 in Preview

Rumors abound that Dan O'Dowd is going to lock Barmes down to a multi-year contract, so it appears he will have the position locked down going into spring training, though Eric Young Jr could provide a completely different toolset.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Orlando Hudson had an All-Star first half, but his defense has slipped and Ronnie Belliard (who had a strong stretch in his own right by finishing8th in just 42 PA) of all people took starts from him down the stretch. Blake DeWitt, Juan Castro and Mark Loretta provided negligible negative value.

2010 in Preview

Hudson will be a Type A free agent and probably won't be retained by the Dodgers. By trading Tony Abreu for Jon Garland, Ned Colletti gave up his best internal option for the position going forward. There's no way they go with Loretta or Castro full time, and Blake DeWitt seems to have regressed after perhaps playing over his head in 2008. Los Angeles could go with Belliard, but second base is certainly on Colletti's offseason shopping list.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Grit is not an input for WAR, so almost all of David Eckstein's value goes unchecked. He combined his light hitting with the second worst UZR in the division. Oscar Salazar and Chris Burke played a small role, but Luis Rodriguez and Edgar Gonzalez really hurt the team, as both were in the bottom handful both with the bat and glove. As a team, the running game was essentially non-existent, as the Padres only stole four bases from second base. All five second basemen posted negative UZR scores.

2010 in Preview

Kevin Towers extended Eckstein through 2010 with a $1 million deal in August, so he is unequivocally the starter going forward, especially with signs pointing towards very minimal free agent spending this offseason

San Francisco

2009 in Review

The position looked to be weak going into the season, and it was. Freddy Sanchez was unable to get on the field consistently after being acquired, but Juan Uribe picked up the slack by not only performing well (his wOBA* at second was just four points behind the best in the division for those with 100+ PA) but having a career season overall. Emmanuel Burriss and Eugenio Velez each got a well deserved Simon Cowell treatment for their poor auditions, and the team seemed that Kevin Frandsen is not the answer. The Giants' combined wOBA of .281 was by far the worst in the division.

2010 in Preview

As Rox Girl noted yesterday morning, the Giants signed Sanchez to a 2-year deal on Friday, paying him $6million/year, more than he's ever made in his career. On the surface, Sanchez is not much of a threat in the division, as he has regressed due to age in recent years and he dealt with a multitude of injuries of late. In 2008, he provided just $1.8million in value, and though he provided the Giants almost no value in 2009, he did have $10.1million total. And after seeing the terrible play at second and need to validate the Tim Alderson trade, it's no surprise Brian Sabean decided to go this direction. At any rate, barring injury to The Mole, the Giants will be much improved at second base in 2010.

The State of the Colorado Rockies (Pre-Free Agency)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:38:04 -0000

While Major League Baseball has yet to crown a champion, the Rockies' season is (unfortunately) over and it is time to look forward towards the swiftly oncoming offseason. The Rockies have quite a to-do list this year.

The clock for Colorado and the rest of MLB starts ticking when the Fall (Winter?) Classic concludes, as teams have 15 days to exclusively negotiate with their prospective free agents. After that time (let's say November 20th), free agents are, well, free to go where their services are most sought after. The original team has until December 12th to tender 2010 contracts to their free agents.

For those players (like Garrett Atkins) who have less than six years of MLB service time, their teams control their rights, but must tender the player a contract offer or salary arbitration, by December 1st--with the player needing to make a decision by the 7th. As a result, at baseball's Winter Meetings from December 7-10, teams will have some idea as to where the market stands.

Finally, December 8th is a very important deadline, as it is the day in which MLB clubs must set their 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, which occurs on the 10th.

These dates and other offseason deadlines are explained in more detail here.

To learn a little bit more about some of the topics I just touched upon, please check out these previous sessions of Purple Row Academy, which I'll be updating over the offseason:

Trades and Contract Tenders

Rule 5 Draft

Now that you understand a little better the timeline that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are working with, I'll break down the Rockies' contract situations (and the decisions to be made therein) extensively after the jump.

Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man, they will be paid the prorated minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Additional Minimum Obligation	Years After 2010

Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This chart shows that the Rockies, even if they do not re-sign Torrealba or Embree, have committed over $48 million to seven players on the 2010 roster. And these are only the players who the Rockies know how much they have to pay. Again, this is if the Rockies don't pick up any club options on these players.

Pre-Arbitration Players

For the players listed below, the Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). For the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. This is assuming that the Rockies let Embree and Torrealba walk and find internal replacements. The pre-arbitration players:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

This chart tells us that the Rockies will be paying a little over $3.3 million to eight players on the 25 man roster. This fact again emphasizes the importance of teams maximizing the value of young players.

The player whose omission sticks out on that list is Matt Murton. With his service time, he would seem to be eligible for Super Two Arbitration status, but due to the fact that he did not accrue at least 86 days of ML service time in 2009 he is rendered ineligible for salary arbitration. At least, I think so. Of course, unless the Rockies unload either Hawpe or Ryan Spilborghs, Murton won't be on the roster--and since this projection is based upon roster stability, Murton is not included on this projection.

Projecting these 15 slots was easy--it's the potential arbitration cases that can get tricky.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

In addition to the 15 players mentioned in the tables above, plus Matt Murton (who would be the victim of a numbers game if the status quo is kept), the Rockies have 10 potential salary arbitration cases on their hands with players that have between three and six years of ML service time (Tracy Ringolsby lists them here). Calculating potential salaries for these players is quite tricky. As I noted when I wrote about ML service time, the average salary raise in 2009 was 172% when multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players (like Ryan Howard's 3 year, $54 million deal) are included.

The Rockies in 2008 gave raises of over 300% to Clint Barmes and Jorge De La Rosa plus hefty salary increases to Taylor Buchholz, Huston Street, Garrett Atkins, and Jason Grilli--raises which increased payroll by $7,649,000 over the six players' 2008 salaries. This year, the Rockies' situation will be much more expensive, with several of their arb-eligible players performing at a high level in 2009.

When projecting arbitration raises for the Rockies I did so based on some past history--giving higher % raises to players with a lower starting salary and to those who had performed in a starting role.

Here's which I came up with, provided the Rockies tendered a 2010 contract offer to each of their arbitration eligibles:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Garrett Atkins	5.072	$5,640,000	-20%
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$1,200,000	50%
Randy Flores	5.061	$900,000	50%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90%

Total		$32,077,560	134%

This chart tells us that based on career performance and function (weighted more heavily toward 2009), the Rockies will pay these 10 players over $32 million--about $13.7 million more than they were paid in 2009. This chart is even assuming that Garrett Atkins will be tendered and will accept a minimum 80% of his previous year's salary (unlikely). Even with Atkins, the projected average arbitration salary increases is only 134%, well below 2009's MLB average of 172%--meaning that my estimated raises, shocking in their size as they may seem, may even be on the low side.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 24 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore another player's salary would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $3,324,840

Arbitration Contracts: $32,077,560

Total ODP: $83,460,400

In other words, the Rockies' ODP will need to grow by $8,259,400, or 10.98%, in order to maintain the status quo (a cost certainty price floor, if you will).

What This All Means

It's pretty obvious to me that the status quo won't happen, as Atkins will likely be non-tendered and one of the outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, or Murton) will be shopped around and dealt. What the above calculation shows, however, is that the Rockies will have very little payroll flexibility to add pieces for 2010--especially if the Rockies need to replace Atkins and grab another bullpen piece.

The most pressing issue given this limitation is the $5.4 million team option on set-up man Rafael Betancourt--in my opinion the team simply can't afford to pay it, unless they are planning on moving Hawpe and his $7.5 million contract. Also, the Rockies have a few free agents they'd like to re-sign, including Joe Beimel (who will probably cost around $2 million), Jason Giambi ($1.5 million), and Torrealba (at most $2 million). Again, Colorado would need to move Hawpe to make this possible.

Remember though that if the Rockies do move Hawpe, they'll receive trade assets in return--and especially if those players are major leaguers they must also be well-compensated.

If I Were In Charge...

Given the financial limitations facing the Rockies and in light of the fact that they were very successful in 2009, a fine line must be walked between cost consciousness and competitiveness. Because the Rockies can not add very many, if any, significant pieces given their current projected payroll, they need to make a few moves. Here's what I would do this offseason to shape the 2010 Rockies:

1. Non-Tender Garrett Atkins. For the love of God, please--Atkins doubles as expensive and bad.

2. Pick only one or two out-going free agents to re-sign. There isn't any room for more than that. The Rockies' top priority should be getting back Betancourt or Beimel if they can get them back for a reasonable price (in this case, under $2.5 million). Relief pitching is too fungible and the market too inefficient to pay relievers big bucks. Likely this person will be Beimel. If the Rockies can get Torrealba back for about $1.5-2 million, they should do it--but they should let him walk if he wants much more than that. An alternative to Torrealba would be to keep Giambi around if he could be had for $1.5 million to come off the bench. I would keep one or the other (or neither), there isn't money for both.

Torrealba would replace Phillips on the roster or Giambi would replace the recently outrighted Omar Quintanilla.

3. Look hard for a taker for Brad Hawpe. In order for the Rockies to shore up their rotation and find a suitable sub for Atkins, they will need to move someone from their glut of outfielders to maintain payroll flexibility. Hawpe may very well be the Rockies' best hitting outfielder and an excellent leader in the clubhouse, but his horrific defense, much higher salary, and All-Star status make Hawpe an ideal trade piece--a player that has much more marginal value to prospective trading partners than he does to his own team. Even after his cold second half, Hawpe does have value around the league (especially as a DH), enough to garner the package I've outlined below.

A possible trade package for Hawpe would be a young back-end rotation starter and either a corner infield reserve or a B prospect or two. The Rockies need starting pitching depth for the simple reason that they were fortunate with pitcher health last year (basically the same five starters all year)--something that will likely not continue next year. They do have a bevy of good pitching prospects, but they will be relying on Francis or Morales to nail down the fifth slot in the rotation, so some insurance is probably needed. If the Rockies can get a major league-ready arm plus a prospect for Hawpe they should pull the trigger.

If no such trade package were to surface, either Spilborghs or Murton would need to be moved--and my decision would be Spilborghs due to the fact that he's older, will command a higher salary, and has Scott Boras as an agent.

4. Gauge the market for Manuel Corpas. If someone will offer value, I'd move him. But value in this situation would be relatively high--I'd hate to sell low on Corpas.

5. Bring in the usual suspects on minor league deals as pitching depth. There are plenty of guys that fit this mold (Fogg, Herges, Rincon, etc.). This is cheap depth to be used in case of dire emergencies only.

The resulting ODP from these moves (assuming Hawpe is moved) would be about $76.7 million, a slight payroll increase from 2009.

Saturday Rockpile: What the Rox should consider doing with Eric Young Jr.

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:09:13 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

3 months ago: Colorado Rockies' Eric Young, Jr. hits a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds in the sixth inning of a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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There is an agonizingly extreme shortage of Rockies-related news today, so I figured I'd dive into a topic that was explored a bit in an ESPN.com chat with Jim Callis.

Chat: Chat with Baseball America's Jim Callis - SportsNation - ESPN
Scroll down a bit and you can see that Callis thinks highly of our very own Ubaldo Jimenez. Most people do, and rightfully so. Also, when asked to compare Dee Gordon and Eric Young Jr., here's Callis' answer:

I would take Gordon because I'm not convinced Young can stay in the infield. Gordon isn't a lock to stay at shortstop but I think he'll figure it out.

That begs the question: what should the Rockies do with EY2? The good thing about the possible conundrum the club will face with the talented youngster is that he is very versatile - as he has shown the ability to play in the infield and outfield. That said, he is probably an average-to-below average defender at both spots. You have to think, though, that with more reps he will improve at one (or both) of the positions, which will increase his value.

With Garrett Atkins and Omar Quintanilla being likely non-tender candidates (not to mention the fact that Brad Hawpe will probably be on the trading block, despite what the Rockies' front office is saying at this point), the younger Young is pretty much a lock for a spot on the 25-man coming out of Spring Training in 2010. However, am I alone in thinking it may be wise to place him back in Triple-A to have him get more work at one position or the other (instead of being a super-utility guy for the big league club, as we all know Clint Barmes will be penciled in at second base in the Opening Day lineup, along with the likely trio of Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Seth Smith in the outfield)? Given the Rockies' current solid outfield depth, I'd like to see him spend all of his time honing his skills in the infield, as I think his value there will be of more importance/relevance to the big league team.

I've rambled on about as much as I can regarding this subject. Now, commence the inevitable Barmes flaming/Brian Roberts trade mongering in the comments. Also, you should humor me a bit and suggest a few players who could fill EY2's spot in the unlikely (but again in my opinion, very reasonable) event of him starting the year in the Springs.

Rockies Set Rotation, Roster for NLDS and Lineup for Game 1

Jabberwocky — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 20:22:35 -0000

More photos » by Matt Rourke - AP

Ubaldo Jimenez will lead the Rockies' playoff rotation.

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According to Sports Illustrated, Jorge De La Rosa will not be available for the NLDS. As such, here's the Rockies' NLDS rotation:

Ubaldo Jimenez,
Aaron Cook
Jason Hammel

It appears that Jason Marquis will be used out of the bullpen during the first three games, meaning that the Rockies seem to be planning to have Jimenez go in game 4 on short rest and Cook in game 5 on regular rest. The possibility still remains that Marquis could start game 4, though no decision has been made on that. Likely if the Rockies are up 2-1 Marquis would start and if they are down 2-1 Jimenez would go.

Jim Tracy on Marquis:

"I think the first two-thirds of the season were exceptional," Tracy said. "Right now he's not throwing the ball quite in the same manner. And to ignore a guy that has thrown the ball as well as Jason Hammel has thrown it since the All-Star break, I really feel is doing ourselves a disservice."

According to the Denver Post, here's the playoff bullpen:

Jason Marquis
Jose Contreras
Matt Belisle
Joe Beimel
Franklin Morales
Matt Daley
Rafael Betancourt
Huston Street

Belisle basically replaced De La Rosa on the roster. The Rockies have two lefties in the pen to help with the Phillies' Ryan Howard in particular.

From the same link, here's the Game 1 Lineup and bench:

Game 1 Lineup:
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
1B Todd Helton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Garrett Atkins
C Yorvit Torrealba
RF Brad Hawpe
2B Clint Barmes
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

This is pretty much what I figured the lineup would be for Game 1, with Atkins and Torrealba starting. I'm pleasantly surprised to see that CarGo will make the start in lieu of Ryan Spilborghs, though I believe that the Rockies are better suited with Gonzalez in the leadoff position rather than in the two hole.

Bench:

1B/DH Jason Giambi
C Chris Iannetta
LF Seth Smith
OF Ryan Spilborghs
3B Ian Stewart
2B/OF Eric Young Jr.

EY2 has taken Quintanilla's bench spot while Giambi slides in as the extra position player.

Hat tip to Rock Oax for his FanShot.

UPDATE: Tracy Ringolsby adds his thoughts on the roster and mentions that Jose Contreras is also a viable option for the starter of Game 4.

Rockies Survive on Miracle Double Play, Take Series with 4-3 Win over Cardinals

Jabberwocky — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:55:21 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Winning is the best medicine.

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Once again, Omar Quintanilla's pixies were right about a Rockies victory this afternoon--though they very nearly were mistaken.

It was a game that, despite leading most of the way and having a bevy of opportunities with men in scoring position, seemed like the Rockies were going to lose. Clint Barmes had something to say about that.

The Rockies' second baseman came through in a big way with a suberb diving catch in short right field with runners on the corners and one out in the ninth in a one run game. Strangely, Albert Pujols, who had been intentionally walked and was at first, never broke stride and Barmes had an easy double-up of Pujols at first base to end the game. Huston Street got six outs for his 34th save of the year and Jorge De La Rosa, who struggled through five innings (4 hits, 3 runs, 3 BBs, 8 Ks) picked up his 16th win (16-9) while Kyle Lohse (6-9) took the loss.

Offensively, the Rockies struggled to execute once again in RISP opportunities, going 2-11 (several of them with a man on third and less than two out), but did manage four runs (with big RBI hits by Tulo, Hawpe, CarGo, and Helton) on eight hits (two each by CarGo, Helton, and Tulo).

Box Score

With the victory and an Atlanta win, the Rockies' magic number only decreased by one to five over the Braves, who still sit 2.5 games behind Colorado in the Wild Card chase. It is likely mean that it is a two-team horse race for the final playoff spot in the NL, with the Rockies still very much in control of their own destiny. In addition, the Rockies finished the season series against the Cardinals with a 6-1 advantage--food for thought for a future potential playoff series against the Redbirds.

88 - 68

Games Back: 5

Streak: Won 1

Games Left: 6

via www.fangraphs.com

We Who Are About to Die Salute: Huston Street (.292), Troy Tulowitzki (.171), Carlos Gonzalez (.154), Clint Barmes (Honorary Mention for Awesome Play)
We'll Forgive You...This Time: Clint Barmes (-.147--yeah, he was kind of horrible until that play), Jorge De La Rosa (-.063), Ian Stewart (-.052)

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Game 156: Kyle Lohse vs. Jorge De La Rosa

Jabberwocky — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:00:21 -0000

This is a game that the Rockies should win. In fact, if they lose with their number two starter against St. Louis' number 4/5 guy struggling through an injury-plagued season, then I'll actually start to be worried about Atlanta. Yes, until the end of this game (and only should it be a poor result) I will remain unconcerned about the Rockies' playoff prospects.

Kyle Lohse

#26 / Pitcher / St. Louis Cardinals

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 04, 1978

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kyle Lohse	6-8	21	20	1	1	0	0	106.2	111	60	57	15	34	68	4.81	1.36

vs.

Jorge De La Rosa

#29 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Apr 05, 1981

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	15-9	31	30	0	0	0	0	177.0	168	92	87	20	80	181	4.42	1.40

Look, Lohse isn't very good (4.69 FIP, 5.33 tRA) and he's right-handed. Omar Quintanilla's pixies tell me that this is a good combination for the Rockies.

Gameday Link

Lineup

St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies

09/27/09 1:10 PM MDT

St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies
Julio Lugo - 2B	Carlos Gonzalez - CF
Brendan Ryan - SS	Seth Smith - LF
Albert Pujols - 1B	Todd Helton - 1B
Ryan Ludwick - LF	Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Mark DeRosa - RF	Brad Hawpe - RF
David Freese - 3B	Yorvit Torrealba - C
Jason LaRue - C	Ian Stewart - 3B
Tyler Greene - CF	Clint Barmes - 2B
Kyle Lohse - P	Jorge De La Rosa - P

OVERFLOW THREAD

Rockies Reassert their Wildcard Dominance, Beat Snakes 10-4

Jabberwocky — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 03:57:24 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Bringin' down the hammer on San Francisco's slim playoff chances.

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Omar Quintanilla's pixies were right.

The Rockies, behind seven strong innings from Jason Hammel (9-8), defeated the Diamondbacks 10-4. With the Giants losing 12-1 to the Dodgers, Colorado is once again up 3.5 games on San Francisco for the Wild Card lead with only 13 games left. By my calculations, if the Rockies even go 7-6 over a home-dominated slate to get to 91 wins, they'll be good to go as far as a playoff berth is concerned.

84 - 65

Games Back: 5

Streak: Won 1

Games Left: 13

This game, like last night's, started well for the Rockies, as Carlos Gonzalez led off the game with a home run (his 12th) and Troy Tulowitzki added his 29th to put Colorado up 2-0 out of the gates. Continuing the parallel with last night's game, an Arizona homerun (a 3-run shot by Justin Upton in the third) got them right back in the game. Thankfully, that's really where the similarities end.

The Rockies regained the lead in the fourth on an Ian Stewart sac fly combined with a horrible overthrow by Gerardo Parra, resulting in a 4-3 advantage. Colorado would nurse a small advantage throughout the game, until a late offensive barrage made this a laugher and gave Colorado residents the right to cheap tacos. The most awesome moment therein was definitely Jason Giambi's first home run as a Rockie--a laser beam three-run shot on the first pitch he saw from Scott Schoeneweis.

Box Score

Tomorrow afternoon, the Rockies will look to win their penultimate road series. It'll be a doozy, as Ubaldo Jimenez will face off against Dan Haren.

via www.fangraphs.com

High Rollers: Yorvit Torrealba (.258 WPA), Ryan Spilborghs (.198), Carlos Gonzalez (.114)
Snake Eyes: Clint Barmes (-.136), Ian Stewart (-.084), Seth Smith (-.052)

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Purple Row interviews Marc Gustafson, Part 1

RockiesMagicNumber — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:26:40 -0000

Marc Gustafson, Director of Player Development for the Colorado Rockies, has taken some time to sit and chat with Purple Row.

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A NOTE FROM RUSS: Finally, RMN and I can reveal our little secret that we've mentioned over the last month. The Rockies granted access to their organization for Purple Row. This story began back in February when RockiesMagicNumber first attempted to ask for an interview with someone in the organization. He was politely told "no," but it wasn't a "never." So, the two of us decided to let things settle for several months. A few weeks ago I encouraged RMN to make contact with the organization again. Last time, we just shot from the hip and didn't really plan on what to say. This time was different, and I offered RMN some talking points on why Purple Row should be able to break down that barrier and talk with someone inside the organization. And here we are: RMN was granted an interview with Marc Gustafson, the Rockies' Director of Player Development who was on a road trip to watch the Tri-City Dust Devils. This interview took place on Wednesday.

Join RMN and Marc Gustafson for the first of at least three parts after the jump.

RMN: For the sake of everyone reading on Purple Row, as the Director of Player Development, what is your job; can you give us a bit of a rundown?

Marc Gustafson: Well, I'm in a position where I oversee the Player Development department, which includes our coordinators, our staff on the field, trainers, but the main part of my job is to make sure everyone is on the same page with our philosophies, and that starts at the top with Dan [O'Dowd] and Bill Geivett and with the ownership group, and we carry that process down, that same common theme to all of our affiliates and all of our people involved in our Player Development system.

RMN: Building on that, do you think you could summarize the organizational philosophy? Everyone in Denver remembers when Dan O'Dowd took over, we went on a 5-year plan, building from within and cycling players in and out to fill holes. Can you speak to how that has changed, or how that continues today?

Marc Gustafson: I would say it's a long-term plan that focuses primarily on scouting and player development, which also includes a component in Latin American operations. We're all on the same page; we're committed to our players in the minor league system. We're going to do everything we can to give the players in the system a chance to reach the major league level, and once they get there, we hope they have a chance to solidify and stabilize their career a little bit with the Rockies. The primary goal is to develop the players within the system.

RMN: When it comes to filling holes that aren't met immediately by the farm, because obviously the timing isn't perfect, are you directly involved with Free Agency?

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, absolutely. We have the 6-year Free Agent process, we have the Rule 5 draft, we have trades that we analyze, we're really looking in all areas. You have to, because as you just mentioned, you're not going to be able to get everybody up every year. There's going to be waves that come through the system that get there, and you may not have a player ready, and you'll have to go out and look at certain areas to fill in the gaps a little bit. We really try and get the right person; obviously good players are the primary concern, but good teammates are a very high standard for us, the players we take a close look at.

RMN: We hear a lot about that from the local media, how the clubhouse is an important part of the organization. Between the offseason and this midseason, it's been exciting to see a lot of deadline deals done. Regrettably, the Rockies have typically been sellers at this point in the season. Who would you say has been the best acquisition we've made in terms of trades or Free Agents for the '09 season?

Marc Gustafson: Well, I'd have to go back to the Jason Marquis deal this offseason. Bringing in a guy like Marquis to plug into the rotation, well, he's an All-Star, that speaks for itself what he's been able to accomplish to solidify that rotation. That would be first and foremost. Then you'd have to go down and look at a few guys, just off the top of my head, some free agents we acquired: Joel Peralta was pretty good for awhile there for us; Juan Rincon has been pretty good in the bullpen. There've been some players of late that you're probably talking about in Jason Giambi and Jose Contreras are the most recent deals we've made. You know, it's always tough to give up your own players, but as you just mentioned, it's a good position to be in, because you're in a pennant race, and you have to do everything you can to keep things going in the right direction.

RMN: Absolutely. There's about a 50-50 split [on Purple Row] when the trade was announced, how Brandon Hynick was so close to reaching the majors and then we move him for Contreras. I was personally a proponent of the deal, but that's neither here nor there. Now, in the case of Hynick, are you the person who has to make that call, or does the AAA manager handle that?

Marc Gustafson: I called Brandon personally when the trade happened. Prior to that, there's a lot of folks involved: our pro scouting department's involved, our coordinators are involved, our AAA staff is involved...We're not just doing a deal to do a deal, we try to really compare notes and figure out long-term efforts, is this the thing to do? You know, it's always a tough phone call to make, whether it be Connor Graham, who we sent to Cleveland for Rafael Betancourt, you know, because these are our guys, they've grown up with us, and you hate to lose them, but at the same time, Betancourt has been tremendous for us so far, and we hope the same situation will happen with the Brandon Hynick trade, with Contreras.

RMN: Just to reassure you, from the people who really do follow the team and the system, we hate to give our own players up, too, just because even though they've never touched the majors, we form attachments to them, and we're really looking forward to seeing them, but at the same time, we like to win as well.

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, absolutely. So you kind of get the feel of what I'm talking about, in terms of, you know, you hate to lose your guys, but it's the betterment of the organization, and that's what we're here for, that's our job.

RMN: Along those lines, during the offseason we moved Corey Wimberly for Matt Murton. He came up and was productive during his short stint up with the Rockies, and he's been mashing for AAA. Can you speak to the organization's plans for Matt Murton?

Marc Gustafson: Well, he came in and did a great job starting Day 1 in Spring Training. He's a grinder, he's a professional, he gives a professional At-Bat each and every time at the plate. He's done a fantastic job for us in Colorado Springs. He and Matt Miller have been the glue to the middle of that lineup in Colorado Springs, and they're in a playoff hunt right now. You know, the guy plays the game the right way. As I mentioned, he's a pro, he's a good teammate, he does a lot of good things at the plate, and to be quite honest with you, he's a pretty good defender in the outfield. So we're in a situation right now where we're going to finish off the year in AAA, and hopefully get into the playoffs, and we'll see what happens when their season is over, and if Jim Tracy and the staff feel like they need another bat off the bench, in terms of a Right Handed Bat, most definitely Matt Murton and Matt Miller would be of consideration.

RMN: Speaking of AAA, one of my favorite players to follow has been the SS Mike McCoy. I know he's more of a veteran journeyman, as it seems, but is there going to be a Major League look at him at any point?

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, definitely. We've been very proud of what McCoy has been able to, what he brings to the table, his athleticism, he's a sparkplug anywhere in the lineup, because he gives you a good AB, he's going to get on base, and he can play SS, he can play 2B, he can play CF, he's really what you're looking for. Going back a couple steps, you asked me about the Free Agent process; Mike McCoy was in there very high on our list, and we were able to bring him back...him and Danny Ortmeier...those are the guys you're looking for, you know, the guys who play every day, and give you a quality effort day in and day out. To answer your question specifically, I think most definitely we've considered McCoy in terms of a big league option, if that point in time comes.

RMN: Awesome. I personally would love to see him up, but we've got to do what we've got to do right now, and if he's helping the Sky Sox do some big things right now, it's understandable, we have a lot of depth right now.

Marc Gustafson: And to be quite honest with you, getting regular ABs with the AAA club and playing every day is probably the better option right now, because if they're at the big league level, well, we're playing well, and everybody on the field is playing well, so it'd be tough for Jim Tracy to find ABs for those guys.

RMN: Yeah, we've seen that situation with Omar Quintanilla. We kind of look at him like they did Seth Smith in '07, kind of the good luck charm, good clubhouse guy.

RMN: Now, if I could move away from the Major League club - well, at least the players - in terms of the organization, where do the Rockies fall in with Sabrmetrics and defensive metrics and the advanced numbers and evaluation thereof?

Marc Gustafson: Well, we have guys in the office; they do a hell of a job in terms of getting the information that we need. We don't overdo any specific area; we try to look at all areas. We try to be really good in a lot of different areas. Our scouts out there are doing their thing, the guys in the office and the statistics and the analysis they do, they do a fantastic job. We've got player development people who have a heck of a good idea on how to teach guys to play the game. So for me, and for the organization, it's a balanced approach. We have to stay in tune with everything going on, but we have to evaluate and we have to teach. That would be the best answer I can give you on that question.

RMN: I happen to be a statistics guy on Purple Row, so this is my area of interest, but I won't harp too much on numbers. Do you use it much in the minor league development system, saying, "oh this guy has an OPS of .900, he might be ready" or is it more of an eyeball test and seeing how well he's adapting to competition?

Marc Gustafson: It's definitely used in the minor league system, without a doubt. We take a very close look at everybody and see how they're doing. We really have to stay focused on the player himself, and what he can do to contribute to the major league level. We have to separate that - that's an office thing. We don't get our player development instructors involved in that stuff, that's a front office tool that we utilize, and we definitely take a close look at it at the minor league level as well.

RMN: That's one of the things we try to stress on Purple Row, to have posters who have an old school mentality and try and balance it with a new school/numbers mentality, so we can have a balanced approach, in the form of "Well, this guy has good numbers, but he's not fast" or whatever. The balance is the smartest thing.

Marc Gustafson: It really is. You need to have that balance. We don't shy away from any idea that's brought to the table. Dan is wonderful at that, Dan is really focused on...any information that can give us an edge, we're going to look into it, without a doubt.

RMN: That's wonderful to hear. Now, if I can move into the farm system and the scouting a bit more here... how much do you scout the other teams' farm systems - is it only when it's an upcoming series? And how far in advance do your advanced scouts work on teams?

Marc Gustafson: Are you talking at the minor league level or the major league level?

RMN: The minor league level.

Marc Gustafson: At the minor league level, a couple of different ways. Our amateur scouts and our pro scouts work together. Obviously the amateur scouts have their duties that they take care of leading up to the draft. Once the draft is complete, then they'll go out and each scout will have coverage with a specific organization. The pro scouts are out covering the big league clubs as well as minor league clubs, so a lot of reports are coming in every day - reports from other clubs' players...we take a look in Mexico, we take a look in Independent leagues, we try to keep our eye on what's going on in the Pacific Rim. Those guys do a hell of a job keeping all the information coming to the office. In terms of our player development staff members, meaning managers, coaches, pitching coaches, those guys will definitely report on what they would call a prospect. They would give a report into the office if they were, say, matching up against... like, right now I'm in Tri-Cities and we're playing the Yakima club. If they see a player that in their eyes is a prospect then they're going to go ahead and compile a report and send it into the office.

Rockies Draw First Blood

Eric Stephen — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 04:57:17 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Manny delivered the tying run in the ninth, but the Dodgers would go on to lose one inning later.

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Both starting pitchers pitched well, the Dodger offense showed some life with a ninth inning comeback, but in the end it wasn't enough as Troy Toulwitzki drove home the winning run with a single in the bottom of the 10th inning for a 5-4 Rockies' win.

The Dodgers scored single runs in the first and fourth innings, and Clayton Kershaw was cruising, allowing only a walk in his first three innings. However, the Rockies tied it with a home run by Dodger killer Brad Hawpe in the fourth inning. Kershaw had not allowed a home run in 90 innings, and his last home run allowed was also in Colorado, to Ryan Spilborghs on May 27.

Jason Hammel was on the money tonight, putting to rest the idea that he can't pitch at home. He allowed just the two runs in his seven innings, and was in line for the win after Clint Barmes launched a solo home run in the bottom of the seventh. The Rockies added an insurance run in the eighth, and the Dodgers' prospects looked bleak heading into the ninth inning, down 4-2.

However, the Dodgers battled back in the ninth. Juan Pierre led off with a pinch single, his eighth hit in his last 11 pinch at-bats, and was followed by a Rafael Furcal double. After a sacrifice fly by Kemp cut the lead to 4-3 and advanced Furcal to third base with one out, lefty Joe Beimel was brought in to face Andre Ethier. Ethier, who entered the game with six hits in 62 at-bats against lefties on the road, struck out, but Manny Ramirez drove home the tying run with a single off Matt Daley.

In the bottom of the tenth, as George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton sat unused in the bullpen, James McDonald was brought in to pitch. Carlos Gonzalez, who cut his left hand earlier this week and basically cannot swing a bat right now, was standing in the on deck circle when McDonald walked Ian Stewart to start the inning. The only thing Gonzalez can do is bunt, and the Dodgers played right into his hands by walking the leadoff batter. To make matters, worse Gonzalez was safe after a botched fielding attempt by McDonald, Loney, and Hudson. After Omar Quintanilla struck out, Todd Helton was walked intentionally to load the bases with one out for Tulowitzki, in the hopes of getting a double play.

To sum up the bottom of the tenth inning, here was the situation:

Due up for the Rockies: LHB Stewart, LHB Gonzalez, LHB Quintanilla, LHB Helton
Players left on Rockies bench: RHB Yorvit Torrealba, RHB Matt Murton
Pitcher's spot for the Dodgers: due up eighth in the top of the 11th

If there was ever a time to bring in George Sherrill -- LHB .117/.169/.150 against him this year, .163/.225/.265 career, by the way -- this was it.

The division lead is now down to two games. Randy Wolf faces off against Josh Fogg, who has pitched out of the bullpen all year. Look at it this way: at least Broxton and Sherrill will be well-rested out of the back of the bullpen!

WP - Matt Herges (1-0): 1 IP, 1 strikeout

LP - James McDonald (3-3): 0.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 run, 2 walks (one intentional), 1 strikeout

Box Score

Cubs 6, Rockies 5: Rox now 15-1 in last 16 vs NL Central

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 03:13:40 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

I hate seeing the Cubs celebrate.

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What a crazy game. Too bad it didn't end up being the good crazy.

Jason Marquis (12-8, 3.65) walked as many batters as he did in the entire month of July, including walking in a run...with the pitcher up. Omar Quintanilla got his first hit (he had two) since June 22 and got his first RBI since last August (he had two). Still, Jim Tracy pulled a double switch in the seventh, putting the struggling Clint Barmes in a double switch, who promptly got his third HR in 47 ABs, the only hits he's accrued in that span. Weird.

Then there's the fourth. After Marquis' meltdown (or Angel Campos' amoeba strike zone), the Rockies trailed 2-0 with the aid of four walks and one hit. After a couple singles by Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez, the Cubs butchered three double play balls, one scored a hit, one an error and one a fielder's choice. Three of the four runs were unearned in the inning for Ryan Dempster (6-5, 4.04), who also gave up Barmes' HR in the 7th for his last batter.

Marquis gave up 5 runs on 8 hits in six innings, the first time he has failed to achieve a quality start in seven games. No 13th win...I guess I jinxed him.

The Rockies lost for the first time in 16 games against an NL Central team. I guess I jinxed them.

Jhoulys Chacin pitched two strong innings, striking out his first four outs and getting two weak ground balls. He did, however, serve up a solo home run to Kosuke Fukudome, which turned out to be the winning run, ending the bullpen's scoreless streak at 14.2 IP. I guess I jinxed them. The two hits the bullpen gave up tonight matched the two they allowed the previous 14.

The Rockies outhit Chicago 11 to 10, and every slot in the order got a hit save Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki. However, 16 Rockies were left on base.

Box Score

60- 50

Pyth W-L: 61-49

Pace: 88-74

Last Year: 49-61

WC GB: 1.0

Join after the jump for the unfinished sine wave fangraph and the row call.

Comment of the Night

This is what I think...

by theshiva on Aug 8, 2009 9:00 PM MDT

WPA Heroes:
Omar Quintanilla (.179) - 2-for-3, 2 RBI
Brad Hawpe (.092) - 2-for-4, RBI, 2 K

WPA Zeroes:
Jason Marquis (-.364) - 6.0 IP, 5 R, 8 H, 5 BB, 4 K. 0-for-2
Chris Iannetta (-.226) - 0-for-4, K

Row Call

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