SB Nation - Jamey Carroll

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:09:33 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

LaTroy Hawkins and Glenn Robinson faced each other in high school. This is the kind of thing that passes for news in December.

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Some things to read while trying not to dance.

LaTroy Hawkins was in Milwaukee yesterday for his physical, making his deal official (FanShot). As mentioned previously, he's due $3.5 million in 2010 and $4 million in 2011, plus $550k available if he maximizes his incentives. One thing I didn't know until reading it afterwards: Hawkins grew up in Gary, Indiana and played basketball against former Buck Glenn Robinson.

I've mentioned previously that the bullpen situation is starting to fill up, but realized yesterday that I've been leaving Carlos Villanueva out of all of my projections. As Adam McCalvy noted in his story on Hawkins, the bullpen now has Trevor Hoffman, Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske, and barring a trade or injury, it looks like Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Chuck Lofgren and Zack Braddock, among others, are on the outside looking in.

While there may not be much competition for a spot in the bullpen, there will be an interesting race to see who opens the season as the backup catcher. View From Bernie's Chalet handicaps the candidates, and is hoping for George Kottoras to open the season in the majors, with Jonathan Lucroy in AAA and Angel Salome on the trading block. Two quick thoughts on that:

Kottoras is out of options, so unless one of the prospects blows him out of the water this spring, he'll likely make the team.
You can never have too many catchers, so don't be surprised if the Brewers hang onto both Lucroy and Salome and try to work out some kind of rotation in Nashville.

Speaking of competitions involving backup catchers, we need your vote to help select a backup catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. As of this writing, Mike Rivera leads Jason Kendall by 15 votes.

At Mike Cameron's press conference in Boston yesterday, we heard some insight for the first time into Ken Macha's feeling toward the running game last season. 2009 was the first time in Cameron's career he's had single-digit stolen bases, and he said he "ran into a little situation where I had to abide by the rules of the manager, even though I’ve been pretty successful, I mean, 80 percent of the time that I’ve ran." Macha has admitted he'll have to open up the running game a little more this season, but this is the first time I can recall hearing a player talk about restraints last season.

Every now and then the Mug provides me an "Ask and you shall receive" moment. Yesterday I asked about differences in attendance at Miller Park based on the starting pitcher, and Wisconsin Sports Tap did the research, discovering no correlation. Many, if not most, Brewer tickets are probably purchased too far in advance to predict starting pitching assignments, so that's likely what I should have expected.

In the minors: FanGraphs unveiled their Top Ten Brewer Prospects yesterday. Alcides Escobar sits atop the list, as he likely will in just about every set of rankings coming out this winter, but Brett Lawrie climbed in front of Mat Gamel for the #2 spot. We'll be doing our Community Prospect Rankings in January, and I'm curious to see where Lawrie will rank there.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Signed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Signed infielder Jamey Carroll to a two year deal worth $3.85 million and signed reliever Luis Ayala to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Signed reliever Mike Gonzalez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and third baseman Garrett Atkins to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed pitcher Geoff Geary and infielder Ray Olmedo to minor league deals.
Tigers: Re-signed infielder Ramon Santiago to a two year deal.

The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners and A's also finalized their four way deal involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. It's been a time for change in Toronto over the last few months: Jordan Bastian noted that the Rogers Centre features three-story images of Alex Rios, Scott Rolen, B.J. Ryan and Roy Halladay. All four will now need to be removed.

In the interest of keeping conversation going and providing fresh content on the site each day, I occasionally post things that wouldn't be front page-worthy during the season, but keep things lively in December. Occasionally when I do that, someone stops by the comments to make sure I know I'm wasting their time, or ask why we're voting for bench players on the All Decade Team. Yes, I know those posts aren't hard-hitting news, but they beat spending a day ranking and discussing your favorite Pixar movies, like Keith Law and Rob Neyer did yesterday.

Earlier this week he celebrated a birthday, and today former Brewer Matt Kinney is the subject of Lookout Landing's Faces series.

Happy birthday today to 1986 and 1989 Brewer Bryan Clutterbuck, who turns 50.

Drink up.

Dodgers sign Jamey Carroll

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 01:44:21 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

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ESPN.com's Buster Olney is reporting that the Dodgers and infielder Jamey Carroll have come to terms on a two year deal worth around 4 million dollars. Carroll hit .276 in 93 games for the Indians last season, but was a very effective utility player and will likely assume a similar role in Los Angeles.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jamey Carroll	93	315	53	87	10	2	2	26	36	63	4	2	.276	.355	.340

I am very surprised to see Carroll make four million dollars on the open market. For a guy who has only reached 350 at-bats once in his career, a two million dollar annual salary seems pretty lucrative.

Dodgers Add Carroll-ing to Holiday Plans

Eric Stephen — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 00:12:56 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

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The Dodgers have signed utility man Jamey Carroll to a two-year contract, pending a physical, per Buster Olney of ESPN. Carroll, who bats right-handed, will likely be Blake DeWitt's caddy at second base in 2010, in addition to filling in at third base or perhaps the outfield if needed. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the deal is worth $3.85 million over two years, with incentives that could take the deal over $4 million.

Carroll, who turns 36 in February, has posted a .355 on-base percentage in each of the last two seasons with the Indians, but has little power. Carroll is one of two active major leaguers with a career OBP of .350 or higher and a slugging percentage lower than his OBP (minimum 1,000 PA):

OBP Greater Than SLG
Player	PA	OBP	SLG
Jamey Carroll	2515	.351	.350
Luis Castillo	7172	.369	.354

Carroll has been rated from slightly below average to slightly above average fielder at both second and third base in each of the last three seasons by both UZR (per Fangraphs) and Plus/Minus:

Jamey Carroll 2B Defense
Year	Innings	UZR	+/-
2007	431.1	+1.9	-1
2008	580.1	+0.1	-4
2009	467.0	+2.7	+6

Jamey Carroll 3B Defense
Year	Innings	UZR	+/-
2007	64.2	+0.4	0
2008	199.2	+1.8	+5
2009	156.0	+0.8	+3

In other words, Carroll won't kill you in the field. He played ten games in the corner outfield spots for Cleveland last season as well. Also, per Bill James Online, his defensive strengths at second seem to lie in his ability to field ground balls, a stark contrast to noted flyball hawk Orlando Hudson. Maybe Andre Ethier won't be so tentative now coming in on short flies to right field.

Carroll hails from Evansville, Indiana, as does Dodger hitting coach Don Mattingly, a hero of Carroll's youth. Both Carroll and Mattingly have teamed up with the Boys & Girls Club of Evansville to refurbish local baseball fields through the years. Here's an interview with Carroll from the 2008 Evansville event (the reporter sounds a little like Will Ferrell's impression of Harry Caray):

I can't say I'm a fan of giving Carroll a two-year deal, but at least he does provide some skills and versatility. Still, I can't shake the feeling that if you squint hard enough, Carroll looks an awful lot like Mark Loretta, signed by the Dodgers last season:

Player	Years	Ages	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
Jamey Carroll	2008-09	34-35	.276/.355/.343	89
Mark Loretta	2007-08	.35-36	.284/.352/.376	91

I eagerly look forward to Carroll's game-winning hit in Game 2 of the 2010 NLDS (much like his game-winning sacrifice fly off Trevor Hoffman in the 2007 Wild Card playoff game for the Rockies against the Padres).

There are now 35 players on the Dodgers' 40-man roster.

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

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Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

The State of the Rockies: A Sane Free Agency Preview

Jabberwocky — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:18:36 -0000

Ladies and Gentlemen, the siren of the MLB free agency period once again beckons, luring unsuspecting baseball fans into wrecking their ships against the sharp jagged rocks--in this case dreams of big-ticket free agents for even the smallest markets, ill-conceived trade schemes, and long soliloquies about why the owner/GM/beat writer is a complete and utter moron. This column, my dear friends, is the beeswax to put in your ears to defend you from those beautiful seductresses (and their horrible ideas) as you look forward to the 2010 Rockies.

Yes, that's right. A few minutes ago, the floodgates officially opened for major league free agency. In addition, all MLB teams are required to set their 40 man rosters in advance of the December 8th Rule 5 draft. I've written about all three subjects in Purple Row Academy before, so for those of you who are curious about how those processes are carried out, check out these primers:

Free Agency (the dates listed therein are from last offseason)

40 Man Roster

Rule 5 Draft

All three of these articles have supporting links that clarify the issues even further.

In this installment of the State of the Rockies, I opine about the puzzling Garrett Atkins decision, revisit Rafael Betancourt's situation, examine the Rockies' current 40 man roster status, and look some free agent targets that I'd like the Rockies to consider (plus, how they would fit into the budget that I've outlined over the last two weeks).

Join me after the jump if you value your sanity.

Why didn't the Rockies non-tender Garrett Atkins before the 40 man roster had to be set?

Good question. There's one main reason for doing this, and that's to extend the window of time that the Rockies have to trade the underperforming third baseman for another few weeks--until the December 12th deadline for tendering contracts for players under team control. Unfortunately for Colorado and Dan O'Dowd, the chances of such a deal being consummated reside squarely between slim and none.

It's not that Atkins isn't drawing interest from other teams. Just three years ago he was a player worth 6.4 WAR, he can play both corner infield positions somewhat passably, and he is theoretically in his prime (he'll turn 30 on the date that the Rockies will probably non-tender him). The problem is, Atkins' value as a trade asset to the Rockies is basically nil. Because by rule Atkins' salary next year unless he is a free agent can be no less than 80% of last year's total ($7.05 million), teams that would trade for Garrett would at a minimum be paying $5.64 million for a player that was flat out awful in 2009. The point is that I can't fathom another team trading the Rockies anything (and I mean anything) for him when he'd come much more cheaply once he's been non-tendered.

However, since the Rockies have seven slots open on the 40 man roster as of today (more on that later), it appears that Colorado has enough room to protect the prospects they want from the Rule 5 draft without removing Atkins from it. I'm hoping against hope that O'Dowd can finagle a deal for Atkins, but let's just say that I'm not holding my breath.

What's up with Rafael Betancourt?

From the poll results of last week's column, it appears that the vast majority of you want Betancourt back next year, preferably on a multi-year deal with less of a hit on a per-annum basis. Since the Rockies did decline his option, which was the right call in my opinion, they face a further decision with the soon to be 35 year old reliever--whether to offer him salary arbitration or not by the December 8th deadline.

It is my opinion that if he were offered arbitration, Betancourt would be crazy not to accept it. His status as a Type A free agent severely pollutes his value on the free agent market, chasing away a number of potentially interested teams that don't want to give the Rockies their first round pick for a solid set-up man. Considering Betancourt's age and the relatively high volatility of relief pitching performance, the risk for another team is particularly acute. I believe that as a result Betancourt would be very fortunate indeed to receive an offer that approaches what he would get in arbitration.

And what would that be? Let's look at some precedent--a tale of two relievers, if you will.

Last year two veteran relief pitchers (Darren Oliver and David Weathers) accepted arbitration from their clubs. Oliver was a Type A free agent while Weathers was a former closer who had once been perceived as being productive. Oliver was coming off of a 1.0 WAR season in which he was very effective, while Weathers had produced 0.2 WAR.

Oliver, who was going to be 38 in 2009, got his salary increased through arbitration from $2 million to $3.665 million, while Weathers, who was going to be 39, went up from $3.3 to $3.5 million. Those are 83.3% and 6% raises respectively, as would befit their recent performance levels. In 2009, Oliver continued to defy science and produced an even better, 1.5 WAR year at age 38, while Weathers was DFA'd and ended up with -0.8 WAR--while being paid $3.5 million. That's the risk inherent with offering arbitration--some decisions pan out and some fail.

Given that Betancourt is likely better than both of the pitchers above and a little younger (35 compared to 38-39), he’ll get a slightly higher raise, closer to Oliver's 83% raise and maybe larger. In 2009 Betacourt was making $3.5 million—which means that I’m estimating an increase of 2.9 million (or 83%) to $6.4 million—in other words, more than the option the Rockies just declined should he accept arbitration. Who knows though…arbitrators work in mysterious ways.

The draft picks should Betancourt not accept arbitration and sign with another team would be worth about $5 million, so the Rockies are gambling that they can either re-sign Betancourt for a lower price tag or that another team would be willing to offer him a crazy contract despite his free agency status. If it works, O'Dowd is a genius--but I just have serious doubts that everything will work out. Bottom line though, the worst case scenario is that the Rockies pay Betancourt well over $6 million next year--which is pretty palatable as far as worst case scenarios go.

Who is worth protecting from the Rule 5 draft?

As I mentioned above, the Rockies have only 33 spots filled on their 40 man roster, meaning that they technically have room to protect up to seven prospects from the Rule 5 draft. Of course, that's not really realistic. As I've outlined previously, the Rockies have holes on the major league roster that need to be filled--namely replacements for their ten free agents and Atkins--so in effect they can protect only a few players.

Hat tip to WolfMarauder on this, but going strictly by the Purple Row PuRP list, the Rockies have four prospects that would need to be protected from the draft: Michael McKenry (C), Cole Garner (OF), Chaz Roe (RHP), and Edgmer Escalona (RHP)--plus Alberto Alberquerque (RHP), who the Rockies received in exchange for Jeff Baker.

Now admittedly the minor league system isn't my area of expertise, but if I were to hazard a guess, the Rockies will likely protect McKenry, Garner, and Roe--leaving both Escalona and Alberquerque (among other lesser prospects) eligible for the draft. They simply won't be able to protect more than that--not if the Rockies plan to field a complete roster come Opening Day 2010. We'll see soon enough.

Who should the Rockies be looking at in free agency?

Given that, by my calculations, the Rockies currently have 23 players under contract for next year (22 if you allow that Buchholz will start on the DL), they will need to fill those holes. This might be through re-signing free agents such as Yorvit Torrealba at back-up catcher, Rafael Betancourt as a set-up man, and Joe Beimel as a lefty out of the pen. Or they could go by the cheap youth method, promoting McKenry to the big leagues come Opening Day while using Deduno and Chacin in the bullpen. Or they could make a foray into the free agent market. Finally, the Rockies could explore the trade market both as a buyer and a seller. To that end, Baseball Prospectus has a few tips for those interested in making up interesting trade rumors.

My prediction is that the Rockies will explore a little of each, signing at least one of their free agents (my guess is that they do get Betancourt back one way or another) and maybe two (Torrealba seems somewhat likely as well), while should Torrealba fall through McKenry seems to be the most cost-effective candidate. I think that the Rockies are likely to trade one of their outfielders (and I've recommended Hawpe many many times), maybe two--and O'Dowd could perform a miracle and trade Atkins. Either way, I think the Rockies will be looking for one of two things in free agency: a back-up corner infielder/veteran and a relief pitcher, preferably a lefty.

Given this and the fact that the Rockies' budget is undeniably tight, here are a few players that I would recommend at least kicking the tires on that are within the Rockies price range. By no means is this list exhaustive, but these players would fill a need for Colorado.

Free Agency Targets

Pedro Feliz: Yes, he's a pretty bad hitter and yes, he's old, but Feliz fields his position very well (he could likely play first base at a high level too) and has shown at least some power--two important characteristics for a NL bench player. He's sufficiently veteranny (he'll be 34 years old), he's right-handed, and would likely cost around $3-5 million to sign. Ultimately, he's injury insurance that gives the Rockies a lot of flexibility in later innings. Obviously, Feliz will be looking for a starting situation before he would choose to come to the Rockies, which is a big stumbling block.

Jamey Carroll: He has already been awesome for the Rockies before (3.1 WAR in 2006), plus he can play almost anywhere on the diamond (and do it well). The fans and players love him already, and he's willing to come off the bench. The problem is that the competition for the utilityman will be fierce this offseason, and he might be snapped up for close to $3 million.

Felipe Lopez: He represents an upgrade at second base, plus he has defensive versatility. His excellent year last year could price him out of Colorado's range, though in my opinion he is being severely undervalued by many. This is a pipe dream that RMN and I share.

Juan Uribe: He's another former Rockie, one who has excelled in this type of role already on the Giants. Unfortunately for Colorado, he may have performed too well for the Giants, who really want him back. My prediction is that San Francisco gets their man.

Joe Crede: He's great with the leather and serviceable with the bat. The problem is that he's looking for a starting job and he's had three back surgeries already. Give him an incentive laden salary with a low base and he's your man--but Crede's probably not coming to Colorado in a part-time role (especially since he's a Boras client).

Eric Hinske: The last three years, the teams that Hinske has been on have made the World Series, winning it twice. How much more of a veteran winner can you be? Plus he's good with the bat and is versatile (though not particularly competent) defensively.

Jose Contreras: More than any other Rockies free agents, I want Contreras back next year as rotation insurance and as a swing man with excellent stuff in the bullpen--heck, I'd like to see the Rockies pay up to $3 million for his services. Whether that would be enough is another matter.

John Smoltz: If he'd deign to sign with the Rockies, Colorado would be glad to have his power arm in the bullpen or even in the fifth starter's role.

Rodrigo Lopez: He has found success in Colorado before and would serve as rotation depth.

Mark Hendrickson and Scott Eyre (Type B): Serviceable veteran left-handed relievers that would cost around $2-3 million each.

To that effect, there are many relievers or failed starters that O'Dowd could pick up cheaply off the scrap heap that would perform at a decent level for this team--I'm not really as worried about the bullpen.

The bottom line is that I think the Rockies should sign Feliz or a similar player to replace Atkins while inking a veteran starter/reliever for the bullpen. If Colorado does move Hawpe, they'll likely receive a bullpen arm in return that could fill the void as well. Either way, I'm expecting free agency to cost the Rockies around $8-10 million, bringing their ODP to around $87 million.

Washington Nationals' Elijah Dukes Gets Ejected...+ Rumorville.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 06:33:32 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

After homering in his first DWL game last night, Elijah Dukes K'd three times and got ejected yesterday in his second game with the Tigres del Licey. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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Day 2 In The DWL For Dukes...

• Elijah Dukes had three at bats to try to make sense of the junk that veteran MLB lefty John Halama was throwing this afternoon in the Sunday Tigres del Licey v Aguilas Cibaenas Dominican Winter League matchup. Dukes never did figure out Halama's offspeed and breaking balls, and after the third straight K, this one backwards, he got himself tossed for arguing about where the bottom of the strike zone was with home plate umpire Justin Vogel. The Nationals' 25-year-old cannon-armed outfielder's down in the DWL to learn how to hit the sort of stuff Halama was throwing. In his first DWL game last night, Dukes hit a two-run HR in his second AB with the Tigres, but today, Halama and a few questionable strikes got the best of the enigmatic outfielder...

• In what, at times, felt like an franchise-history-spanning intra-squad game between current and former Washington Nationals with Dukes, Halama, Wily Mo Pena, Bernie Castro, Daniel Cabrera, Emilio Bonifacio, Anderson Hernandez, Kory Casto and pitching prospect Atahualpa Severino all seeing action, the Tigres took and then immediately blew a 2-1 lead when Bernie Castro hit a two-run triple in the top of the fifth, followed quickly by Aguilas' first baseman Kevin Barker's RBI single and second baseman Hector Luna's three-run HR that made it 5-2 Aguilas after the home-half of the frame...

• Final Score - Tigres del Licey 2, Aguilas Cibaenas 8. MLB.com Box.

BACKPAGE:

• Rumorville (A Suburb Of NatsTown™): Trading The Untradeable.

BACKPAGE:

• Rumorville (A Suburb Of NatsTown™): Trading The Untradeable.

In MLB.com's Bill Ladson's latest, "Inbox: Riggleman right man for job?", Mr. Ladson talks to several readers with ideas about how the Nationals can improve their middle infield, (Ronnie Belliard? Jamey Carroll?), and then entertains a question from a fan who wants to know if the DC fans should just expect an Ian Desmond/Cristian Guzman middle infield combo this season, with Mr. Ladson responding that he finds it hard to imagine the Nationals going with an Adam Dunn/Cristian Guzman right side of the infield, leading him to believe, in his own words:

"...that the Nationals will try to trade Guzman. It will be hard, because he will make $8 million next year.

As far as Desmond goes, I'm getting mixed signals. I know that Riggleman likes him, but there are other people in the organization who believe he needs more seasoning in the Minor Leagues."

Mr. Ladson quoted Jim Riggleman, in an article entitlted, "Riggleman: Guzman a second baseman" after Riggleman was promoted to full-time skipper, saying that in his opinion and Mr. Ladson's words, "...he wouldn't mind going into the season with Desmond at (short)", though the 24-year-old infielder will have to earn it, and Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell addressed the complaints about Guzman's defensive play and the possibility that someone out there will take an $8 million dollar deal off the Nationals' hands in a chat with readers back on September 24, 2009 entitled, "Ask Boswell: Redskins, Nats, Orioles and More", where Mr. Boswell responded to another Nats fan who brought up Jamey Carroll as an option before suggesting that Guzman's, "...poor on base percentage, marginal range and lack of power," should lead the Nationals to trade the soon-to-be 32-year-old outfielder, "...even if they have to eat half his contract," by stating that:

"Critism of Guzman's fielding is overdone. He has a strong arm, remains agile and WILL be part of the Nats middle infield next year, almost certainly. His $8-million contract makes him semi-untradeable. He's not worth that much. But he is worth having. Almost every SS who has moved to 2nd base has immediately been perceived as a much-improved fielder. Every great defender is put at SS. Those who aren't good enough move to 2nd. So, Guzman's competition is easier. Good Lord, Dan Uggla plays 2nd. Also, almost every play is easier at 2nd. Going left or right (especially left), you can leave your feet and slide to make a stop and still have time to throw out the hitter a high percentage of the time."

Another important consideration Mr. Boswell points out is the fact that Guzman's playing for his next contract this season, which is all the more motivation for Guzman to stay healthy and productive while projecting the image of a team player who's willing to do what's necessary for the good of the ballclub. The year before Guzman signed with Washington, the then-Minnesota Twins' infielder parlayed a .274 AVG, .309 OBP, .384 SLG, 31 doubles, 8 HR's and 46 RBI's into a 4-year deal with Washington worth $16.8 million dollars, (ed. note - "BOWDEN!!"), and after hitting .219 with a .260 OBP in 2005, missing all of 2006, hitting over .300 in 46 games in 2007 and posting a .316 AVG, .345 OBP, .440 SLG, 35 doubles and 55 RBI's in 2008, Guzman inked a two-year extension with the Nationals (in July of '08) for the $8 million he made last year and the $8M he's due in 2010...(ed. note - "BOWDEN!!") Should DC fans expect a lucrative bounce-back campaign from the Guz...?

(ed. note - "Guzman better be solid at second if he stays in DC and switches to the other side of the infield, because Adam Dunn, in the opinion of one Fangraphs.com writer, is the worst defensive player in the Majors. Fangraphs.com writer Matthew Carruth posted an article last Friday entitled, "Highs and Lows of UZR 2007-9: Dunn", in which Mr. Carruth looks, "...at the best and worst defensive performers over the last three seasons combined," and concludes that DC 1st baseman Adam Dunn has cost him team (-108.1) "runs against average" over the last three seasons...granted, most of the Dunn stats examined in this article would have been for him as an OFer, and there's little or no chance he's going back out there any time soon...")

News and Notes

Ryan — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 14:01:52 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

The Omar! watch continues.

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Like last year, the Indians made most of their major moves during the season, not after it. Still, there are some moves left to made. First, there's the utility infielder spot...

Would Cleveland Indians be "high-profile" enough for Omar Vizquel to return? | cleveland.com
Bringing Omar! back to be a backup infielder does make some sense. There will be a small but tangible PR boost from the signing, and going on 43, Vizquel can still play decent defense. Bringing Jamey Carroll back would be better move, but he'll be more difficult to sign.

Tribe could use Vizquel's services again | indians.com
Another Omar! article, this time from Anthony Castrovince. He mentions a possible strategic downside to having Vizquel on ths club:

For one, it's expected that if the Indians do decide to pursue a veteran utility player in free agency, they'll need him to spell Valbuena at second base against left-handed pitching, and that's not exactly Vizquel's area of expertise. The switch-hitter batted .485 in just 35 plate appearances against lefties in '09, but he's a career .255 hitter against left-handers.

I'd like to see Valbuena get some at-bats against left-handers next year. He's only had 48 career plate appearances against southpaws, so that's not much to go on. And the Indians will be looking at Jason Donald as well, so I don't think this should prevent the Indians from bringing in Vizquel.

The major problem is his age. He's going to be 43 in April, and as well as he's kept in shape over the years, at some point he's going to break down.

Documentary makes way for the Choo Choo train | 아시아경제
Korean network MBC has produced a documentary about Shin-Soo Choo titled "Choo Shin-Soo, Hitting Major League At Last". This is a Q&A (in English) with Kim Sae-byul, the producer of the program. A sample:

Q: In that sense, you might need to put in some explanation for words such as "five-tool player" that the team’s coaching staff mentions.

Kim: I’m going to put them in subtitles. Because I didn’t really know what it meant. I first heard about the term "five-tool" when I was making this program. We are going to put in subtitles for everything the interviewee says and also for terminology that might need explaining. And we are going to put in all the dates and locations for footage of the games.

Free Agent Friday: Second Base 2010

Justin Bopp — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 08:04:53 -0000

These charts tells me the Royals are now in the Luis Rodriguez sweepstakes.

Click to enlarge

Full data after the jump.

Second basemen	AGE	TYPE	CLUB OPTION	WAR	UZR/150	wOBA	ISO	PA
Felipe Lopez	30	B		4.6	7.6	0.356	0.118	680
Placido Polanco	34	A		3.1	11	0.321	0.112	676
Juan Uribe	31			2.9	16.4	0.351	0.206	432
Orlando Hudson	32	A		2.9	-3.7	0.342	0.134	631
Craig Counsell	39			2.8	18	0.336	0.124	459
Adam Kennedy	34			1.7	-11.4	0.337	0.121	587
Mark DeRosa	35	B		1.7	N/A	0.327	0.183	576
Jamey Carroll	36			1.5	7.4	0.317	0.063	358
Ronnie Belliard	35	B		1.3	6.6	0.339	0.174	287
Jerry Hairston Jr.	34			1	4.1	0.312	0.144	433
Nick Green	31			0.4	-29.7	0.290	0.130	309
Alex Cora	34			0	-9.3	0.288	0.059	308
Mark Loretta	38			-0.2	0.7	0.311	0.085	204
Luis Rodriguez	30			-0.5	-23.7	0.268	0.058	251

Click for Free Agent Fridays 2010:

1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | P

Data Source: FanGraphs.com

FA/Age Source: mlbtraderumors.com

RL & Lg. Avg wOBA Data: Jeff Zimmerman

When Is It Easier to Replace the Whole Than Replace the Parts?

Jesse — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 02:37:54 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

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And, when can it be done by a financially conscious club?

Answer: When there are no entrenched players with big contracts. Which is exactly the position the Twins find themselves in this year,

Almost two years ago to the day I talked about how this club would go about replacing Torii Hunter. It wasn't realistic to think that the organization would be able to replace everything Torii brought to the table with one guy, but it was possible that the Twins would be able to replace at least parts of his production through different players. This time around it's a little bit different, because A) there's more than one position open, B) the positions are open in spite of guys you could dub "incumbants" and C) we're not asking anyone to replace an All-Star.

If anyone is still wondering what position(s) I'm talking about, it's second base, third base and shortstop. Naturally.

With Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera possibly not returning to the Twins as free agents, both Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher are legitimate non-tender candidates this year. Brendan's versatility is only a plus when it doesn't cost a lot of money, which he's going to get now that he's about to enter arbitration for the first time; Brian's penchant for handling right-handed pitching gives him value in a platoon situation, but his defense and lack of power make him a one-trick pony if you give him extra credit for being able to backup first base. Being able to play multiple positions and having backup options has been part of Minnesota's MO over the last few years, but with Harris and Buscher in particular the Twins have some decisions to make as they weight their cost versus benefits ratios this winter.

This leaves Alexi Casilla (plausible trade fodder), Matt Tolbert (the new, younger and cheaper Harris) and Nick Punto (hello, contract!) as the only infielders who I would rate as likely candidates to remain entering 2010.

Let's get onto the fun part--what a player coming in would have to replace.

On-Base Skills
Casilla (.280), Crede (.289) Tolbert (.303), Harris (.310), Cabrera (.313), Punto (.337), Buscher (.360)

This should be one of the more essential attributes that any incoming infielder should possess. The two-hole, and the bottom of the batting order in general, had trouble producing base runners on any sort of a consistent basis. As a result the lineup, which was constructed around a handful of very competent and talented players, didn't score nearly as many runs as it could have.

Being able to hit, whether that's for power or average or both, is a secondary value as far as I'm concerned. Any player who can come in and simly prolong the inning by avoiding outs is an upgrade, and it's a necessity to find someone who can hit between Denard Span and Joe Mauer.

Plate Discipline

Getting on-base is priority number one, I don't care how anyone does it. But in the (most likely) event that the Twins don't get their hands on a premier middle infielder who is a natural hitter, they need to find a guy who can step in and just work it out. A guy who can be smart, identify the strike zone, identify pitches and be selective in his approach will find his way on.

Player	BB%	O-Swing%	Swing%	P/PA
Casilla	8.8	29.5	44.4	3.77
Crede	8.0	31.5	53.1	3.70
Tolbert	9.6	24.8	47.5	3.73
Harris	6.5	25.3	45.3	3.84
Cabrera	5.2	27.7	47.5	3.68
Punto	14.5	17.0	38.6	4.22
Buscher	15.0	19.8	41.3	4.26

BB% = Percentage of plate appearances that end in a walk (9.1% average)
O-Swing% = Percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone which were swung at (25.1% average)
Swing% = Overall percentage of pitches swung at (45.2% average)
P/PA = Pitches per plate appearance (3.87 team avearge)

The only two players consistently coming out on the better side of average are Punto and Buscher. We'll get more into Punto and his positives when we get around to our Season In Review series, but it's hard to look at what Brian did this year in very limited action (just 164 plate appearances) in one breath while saying he's a legitimate non-tender candidate in another. That's the difference between the microcosm and The Big Picture.

After our first two categories you should already have a pretty clear picture of how things look with our "incumbents", and how difficult it would be (or not be) to improve upon their 2009 performances. Punto's peripherals don't look horrible, while Buscher (as encouraging as his numbers are) were accumulated in very limited time. And it was limited time for a reason.

Power

Slg Iso HR/FB XBH%

Player	SLG	ISO	HR/FB%	XBH%
Casilla	.259	.057	0.0	3.9
Crede	.414	.189	10.1	8.7
Tolbert	.308	.076	3.7	4.3
Harris	.362	.101	5.2	6.4
Cabrera	.389	.105	4.2	8.1
Punto	.284	.056	1.1	3.9
Buscher	.316	.081	4.9	3.7

Power is an issue. We know this. We also know that as far as shortstop and second base are concerned, it's just a bonus. A big, fat bonus.

Defense

Not a bonus. Punto rated a plus at second base (5.2 UZR/150, while Crede (15.9) and Tolbert (8.0) each came out ahead at third base. Anyone and everyone else who played any sort of time at any of those three positions were, at best, below average. "Butcher" might be a more accurate term in some cases.

Speed

Cabrera is agile, Punto is quick, but only Casilla is someone I would dub as truly fast. He was 11 for 11 in stolen bases this season, confirming not just his raw speed but also his ability to read pitchers and get the jumps he needs. FanGraphs rates his speed component as 6.9 (compared to 5.0 average). That speed still hasn't translated to consistent success in the field however, resulting in flashes of prowess in his range mitigated with any number of mistakes.

Punto was 16-for-19 this season in stolen bases, but this is more a case of a guy who knows how to use his quickness than an example of a player whose raw speed gets him his numbers.

You can teach reaction, hone instincts and train for an explosive first step, but speed itself can't be taught. Finding a player who knows how to maximize his speed is more important than trying to bring in the fastest guy you can find, but as far as this tool is concerned it's one area where the Twins don't actually require improvement.

What good solutions are out there?

Dan Uggla is still toward the top of my list. He was second among all second basemen in walk rates in 2009, walking in 14 percent of his plate appearances. His OBP was solid (.354) and he complimented it with good power (.216 ISO, 31 home runs). He also knows his strike zone (18.7 O-Swing%, also second best in baseball among second basemen). Uggla's biggest detractor is his defense, which would roughly equate to Tolbert's season at second base: not pathetic, but definitely not good. He's right-handed and arbitration eligible.

On the free agent market is one Jamey Carroll, who is about as versatile as it gets while still being an effective hitter; in 2009 he played second, third and both corner outfield positions. For his career he's been extraordinarily selective as a hitter, swinging at just 16.5% of balls outside of the strike zone and just 33.6% of all pitches this past season. Career walk rates? Right around ten percent. On-base percentage? Just over .350 for his career, although hitting between Span and Mauer I could see him doing even better. The downside is that he'll be 36 next season and has only been a full-time player once in his career, usually appearing in roughly 100 games.

Felipe Lopez is also on the market, but projects as a Type-B free agent (not a big deal) and is also a Scott Boraas client (a bigger deal, literally). He's a switch-hitter, 30 in 2010, a good bet to post a .340+ OBP, and is a versatile defender although second and third might be his better positions. Lopez is also good for 25-35 doubles as a full-time player. As an option I really haven't considered much in recent weeks, he's definitely somebody to keep tabs on.

Finally there's fan-favorite J.J. Hardy, who is coming off of his worst professional season and a demotion to triple-A in Milwaukee. He's a gamble, but one that could pay off and likely shouldn't cost as much as Uggla, and he's also consistently been a good defensive shortstp.

Who else gets your vote as a favorite this off-season? How do they stack up as far as the essential peripherals?

As for the question which serves as the title for this post, the answer is as easy as the one I mentioned earlier, but it's probably also a bit more cruel. It's easier to replace the whole when the parts you have just aren't that good. There are bright spots, which includes Buscher's affinity for right-handed pitchers, Casilla's speed and some of Punto's peripherals, but none of them are complete packages and more importantly, none of them are good, star players who are capable of helping give the Twins an additional boost in 2010. They are who they are, with perhaps the exception of Casilla, and if the organization wants to give the club a little extra juice next summer they'll be hard pressed to expect anymore out of those three players than they got in 2009.