SB Nation - Aaron Cook

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

The State of the Rockies: Post GM Meetings Update

Jabberwocky — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:42:43 -0000

In what will be a semi-weekly occurrence from now until January on Purple Row Academy, I'm going to update my post on the State of the Rockies. In other words, I will update my loyal readers (all three of you)--as well as anyone ~~stupid~~ intrepid enough to follow me after the jump as to the roster framework the Rockies are looking at as some big offseason deadlines approach.

This week, I'll be looking at what has happened thus far for the Rockies and what that means going forward. Also discussed will be the Rockies' impending decision on Rafael Betancourt's club option and how the Rockies are affected by the Elias Free Agent classifications.

By next week, we should have a better idea of what the Rockies are doing as the beginning of free agency and the deadline to set 40 man rosters approaches (November 20th).

Jump with me, brave souls, to roster-building nirvana...

Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man, they will be paid the prorated minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This list of players the Rockies definitely owe money to next year has become more certain, especially since Colorado declined the options of Embree and Torrealba as I predicted. Embree won't be back, but as RG wrote this morning, the door is open for Torrealba to return.

Pre-Arbitration Players

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$2,897,390

The main difference on this pre-arb chart is that I've taken out Paul Phillips, who was outrighted on Monday to clear up 40 man roster spots and looks like he'll become a free agent. That leaves a hole in the projected roster at backup catcher, perhaps to be filled by Torrealba, a cheaper in-house option such as Mike McKenry, or even a free agent catcher.

Even with the extra spot in the roster open, I'm not using Matt Murton to fill it because he would be the sixth outfielder. One of Murton, Ryan Spilborghs, and Hawpe will likely be gone--and more than one leaving is possible.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Since my previous post two weeks ago, the Rockies have avoided salary arbitration with two of their prospective cases, relievers Randy Flores and Matt Belisle. The Rockies were able to secure the services of these two relievers for less than I had predicted--Flores for $650,000 and Belisle for $850000, raises of 6.25 and 8.33% respectively. Both contracts have incentives based on number of appearances, neither of which I predict will be triggered.

With Belisle and Flores in the fold, the Rockies stil have eight potential arbitration cases to negotiate--including that of Garrett Atkins, who is almost certain to be non-tendered. The Rockies may (should) do this before the November 20th deadline for setting the 40 man roster in order to protect another prospect from the Rule 5 draft. Let's face it: Atkins won't engender much interest from teams at his current price point (minimum of $5.64 million). For that reason I'm removing him from the below chart. Bold numbers represent concrete salaries, not just predictions

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	6.25%
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	8.33%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$25,837,560	141.06%

As you can see, this is considerably less than two weeks ago, due mostly to Atkins but also because Belisle and Flores were signed more cheaply than I had anticipated. Another effect of Atkins being removed is that the Rockies' average player salary increase from arbitration is closer to reflecting the league average of 172%.

Of the seven arbitration cases that remain, I could really see De La Rosa and maybe Spilborghs getting to actual salary arbitration. De La Rosa in particular could garner a larger salary than I predict here (more in the $6.5 million range). Meanwhile, Barmes and Street seem more likley to take the multi-year contract route and might have lower salaries this year than I'd projected.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control (besides Atkins, that is) and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 22 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore the salary of three players would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $2,897,390

Arbitration Contracts: $25,837,560

Total ODP: $76,792,950

In other words, a roster that still has three spots open is about $1.6 million over last year's ODP.

The Betancourt Variable

The variables as far as the Rockies are concerned from now until November 20th are their free agents. The most pressing and important of these players to the front office is set-up man Rafael Betancourt, whose $5.4 million club option expires tomorrow.

Betancourt has reportedly already turned down a multi-year offer from the Rockies, so it is important for Dan O'Dowd to decide whether he wants the 35 year old Betancourt to be the set-up man next year or not. If the option is declined, Betancourt may still be retained, but the Rockies will have to bid against other teams for his services.

I've made my opinion on the issue of bullpen spending pretty clear--I believe that bullpen performance is highly variable, very fungible, and an inefficient use of salary dollars. Obviously many people disagree with me on this, but I'd prefer the Rockies to bring back Jose Contreras as a combo set-up man rotation insurance.

As Thomas Harding notes, the Rockies are interested in re-signing Contreras and Joe Beimel, who combined will probably make about the same as Betancourt's club option.

Free Agent Classification

Another reason for the Rockies to perhaps let Betancourt go would be his status as a Type A free agent. I wrote about free agency compensation several months ago, but the gist is that the top 20% of players in their positional groups (1B/DH/OF, 2B/SS/3B, C, SP, RP) as calculated by Elias are classified as Type A free agents. The formula for these calculations is complicated, convoluted, and confidential, rarely making a list that makes much sense.

In return for losing one of these players in free agency, a club receives the signing club's first round pick in the Rule 4 draft as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. As I discussed in my analysis of the Betancourt trade back in July, the draft picks from a type A free agent are typically worth $5 million to a team. In fact, in that article I recommended that the Rockies decline Betancourt's option and retain the draft picks.

Unfortunately, the Rockies would have to offer Betancourt arbitration in order to receive the draft picks in return--and in this lackluster market, the risk is high that Betancourt will accept and get even more than the $5.4 million club option. The same logic applies to Colorado's other free agents. If the Rockies want to take advantage of the Type B status (sandwich pick as compensation) of Jason Marquis, Torrealba, and Beimel they would have to offer arbitration--and there is a relatively high risk that these players would accept.

Is the risk worth it? For someone like Betancourt, who probably won't get a commensurate offer on the open market, especially with his type A status, the proposition is too chancy. For Marquis, who is likely to draw strong interest in a weak starting pitching market from his hometown Mets, the risk might be low enough to offer him arbitration. My personal view is that Colorado should offer arbitration to Beimel because his arbitration cost would be around his market cost--relatively low. Marquis could command $10-12 million in arbitration, so the Rockies need to be certain that he would decline before they offer it to him.

Next week the picture for the Betancourt situation should be a little clearer as the option decision will be made and the 40 man roster will be solidified. Until then, don't touch that stove. It's hot.

Poll

Should the Rockies exercise their $5.4 million club option on Rafael Betancourt?

Yes. He was nails last season and provides a solid bridge to Huston Street.

111 votes

No, the Rockies should try to sign him at a lower price over a multi-year deal.

131 votes

No, Betancourt is old and signing him would tie up too much salary to the bullpen.

40 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

The State of the Colorado Rockies (Pre-Free Agency)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:38:04 -0000

While Major League Baseball has yet to crown a champion, the Rockies' season is (unfortunately) over and it is time to look forward towards the swiftly oncoming offseason. The Rockies have quite a to-do list this year.

The clock for Colorado and the rest of MLB starts ticking when the Fall (Winter?) Classic concludes, as teams have 15 days to exclusively negotiate with their prospective free agents. After that time (let's say November 20th), free agents are, well, free to go where their services are most sought after. The original team has until December 12th to tender 2010 contracts to their free agents.

For those players (like Garrett Atkins) who have less than six years of MLB service time, their teams control their rights, but must tender the player a contract offer or salary arbitration, by December 1st--with the player needing to make a decision by the 7th. As a result, at baseball's Winter Meetings from December 7-10, teams will have some idea as to where the market stands.

Finally, December 8th is a very important deadline, as it is the day in which MLB clubs must set their 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, which occurs on the 10th.

These dates and other offseason deadlines are explained in more detail here.

To learn a little bit more about some of the topics I just touched upon, please check out these previous sessions of Purple Row Academy, which I'll be updating over the offseason:

Trades and Contract Tenders

Rule 5 Draft

Now that you understand a little better the timeline that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are working with, I'll break down the Rockies' contract situations (and the decisions to be made therein) extensively after the jump.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Additional Minimum Obligation	Years After 2010

Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This chart shows that the Rockies, even if they do not re-sign Torrealba or Embree, have committed over $48 million to seven players on the 2010 roster. And these are only the players who the Rockies know how much they have to pay. Again, this is if the Rockies don't pick up any club options on these players.

Pre-Arbitration Players

For the players listed below, the Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). For the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. This is assuming that the Rockies let Embree and Torrealba walk and find internal replacements. The pre-arbitration players:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

This chart tells us that the Rockies will be paying a little over $3.3 million to eight players on the 25 man roster. This fact again emphasizes the importance of teams maximizing the value of young players.

The player whose omission sticks out on that list is Matt Murton. With his service time, he would seem to be eligible for Super Two Arbitration status, but due to the fact that he did not accrue at least 86 days of ML service time in 2009 he is rendered ineligible for salary arbitration. At least, I think so. Of course, unless the Rockies unload either Hawpe or Ryan Spilborghs, Murton won't be on the roster--and since this projection is based upon roster stability, Murton is not included on this projection.

Projecting these 15 slots was easy--it's the potential arbitration cases that can get tricky.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

In addition to the 15 players mentioned in the tables above, plus Matt Murton (who would be the victim of a numbers game if the status quo is kept), the Rockies have 10 potential salary arbitration cases on their hands with players that have between three and six years of ML service time (Tracy Ringolsby lists them here). Calculating potential salaries for these players is quite tricky. As I noted when I wrote about ML service time, the average salary raise in 2009 was 172% when multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players (like Ryan Howard's 3 year, $54 million deal) are included.

The Rockies in 2008 gave raises of over 300% to Clint Barmes and Jorge De La Rosa plus hefty salary increases to Taylor Buchholz, Huston Street, Garrett Atkins, and Jason Grilli--raises which increased payroll by $7,649,000 over the six players' 2008 salaries. This year, the Rockies' situation will be much more expensive, with several of their arb-eligible players performing at a high level in 2009.

When projecting arbitration raises for the Rockies I did so based on some past history--giving higher % raises to players with a lower starting salary and to those who had performed in a starting role.

Here's which I came up with, provided the Rockies tendered a 2010 contract offer to each of their arbitration eligibles:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Garrett Atkins	5.072	$5,640,000	-20%
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$1,200,000	50%
Randy Flores	5.061	$900,000	50%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90%

Total		$32,077,560	134%

This chart tells us that based on career performance and function (weighted more heavily toward 2009), the Rockies will pay these 10 players over $32 million--about $13.7 million more than they were paid in 2009. This chart is even assuming that Garrett Atkins will be tendered and will accept a minimum 80% of his previous year's salary (unlikely). Even with Atkins, the projected average arbitration salary increases is only 134%, well below 2009's MLB average of 172%--meaning that my estimated raises, shocking in their size as they may seem, may even be on the low side.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 24 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore another player's salary would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $3,324,840

Arbitration Contracts: $32,077,560

Total ODP: $83,460,400

In other words, the Rockies' ODP will need to grow by $8,259,400, or 10.98%, in order to maintain the status quo (a cost certainty price floor, if you will).

What This All Means

It's pretty obvious to me that the status quo won't happen, as Atkins will likely be non-tendered and one of the outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, or Murton) will be shopped around and dealt. What the above calculation shows, however, is that the Rockies will have very little payroll flexibility to add pieces for 2010--especially if the Rockies need to replace Atkins and grab another bullpen piece.

The most pressing issue given this limitation is the $5.4 million team option on set-up man Rafael Betancourt--in my opinion the team simply can't afford to pay it, unless they are planning on moving Hawpe and his $7.5 million contract. Also, the Rockies have a few free agents they'd like to re-sign, including Joe Beimel (who will probably cost around $2 million), Jason Giambi ($1.5 million), and Torrealba (at most $2 million). Again, Colorado would need to move Hawpe to make this possible.

Remember though that if the Rockies do move Hawpe, they'll receive trade assets in return--and especially if those players are major leaguers they must also be well-compensated.

If I Were In Charge...

Given the financial limitations facing the Rockies and in light of the fact that they were very successful in 2009, a fine line must be walked between cost consciousness and competitiveness. Because the Rockies can not add very many, if any, significant pieces given their current projected payroll, they need to make a few moves. Here's what I would do this offseason to shape the 2010 Rockies:

1. Non-Tender Garrett Atkins. For the love of God, please--Atkins doubles as expensive and bad.

2. Pick only one or two out-going free agents to re-sign. There isn't any room for more than that. The Rockies' top priority should be getting back Betancourt or Beimel if they can get them back for a reasonable price (in this case, under $2.5 million). Relief pitching is too fungible and the market too inefficient to pay relievers big bucks. Likely this person will be Beimel. If the Rockies can get Torrealba back for about $1.5-2 million, they should do it--but they should let him walk if he wants much more than that. An alternative to Torrealba would be to keep Giambi around if he could be had for $1.5 million to come off the bench. I would keep one or the other (or neither), there isn't money for both.

Torrealba would replace Phillips on the roster or Giambi would replace the recently outrighted Omar Quintanilla.

3. Look hard for a taker for Brad Hawpe. In order for the Rockies to shore up their rotation and find a suitable sub for Atkins, they will need to move someone from their glut of outfielders to maintain payroll flexibility. Hawpe may very well be the Rockies' best hitting outfielder and an excellent leader in the clubhouse, but his horrific defense, much higher salary, and All-Star status make Hawpe an ideal trade piece--a player that has much more marginal value to prospective trading partners than he does to his own team. Even after his cold second half, Hawpe does have value around the league (especially as a DH), enough to garner the package I've outlined below.

A possible trade package for Hawpe would be a young back-end rotation starter and either a corner infield reserve or a B prospect or two. The Rockies need starting pitching depth for the simple reason that they were fortunate with pitcher health last year (basically the same five starters all year)--something that will likely not continue next year. They do have a bevy of good pitching prospects, but they will be relying on Francis or Morales to nail down the fifth slot in the rotation, so some insurance is probably needed. If the Rockies can get a major league-ready arm plus a prospect for Hawpe they should pull the trigger.

If no such trade package were to surface, either Spilborghs or Murton would need to be moved--and my decision would be Spilborghs due to the fact that he's older, will command a higher salary, and has Scott Boras as an agent.

4. Gauge the market for Manuel Corpas. If someone will offer value, I'd move him. But value in this situation would be relatively high--I'd hate to sell low on Corpas.

5. Bring in the usual suspects on minor league deals as pitching depth. There are plenty of guys that fit this mold (Fogg, Herges, Rincon, etc.). This is cheap depth to be used in case of dire emergencies only.

The resulting ODP from these moves (assuming Hawpe is moved) would be about $76.7 million, a slight payroll increase from 2009.

Tuesday Rockpile: Rox shut out of Players' Choice Awards

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:00:49 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

This guy had a more impressive comeback than the ToddFather?

Browse more photos »

If I were Troy Tulowitzki, I would listen a great deal more when Derek Jeter talks about me than, say, when Jay Mariotti spouts off on Around the Horn. Peers>MSM. Hence the honor of the Players' Choice Awards, voted on by fellow players.

Tulo was indeed on the ballot for most outstanding player in the National League, but Troy was deservingly ousted from the running, leaving Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez and ~~David Eckstein~~ Albert Pujols, as Troy Renck reported in his blog yesterday. Aaron Cook didn't make the cut as the Man of the Year, which I'm not too bent out of shape for.

But poor Todd Helton. He was 35, came off a back surgery to relieve pain and numbness going down his leg and hit .325 with a wOBA near .400. It was a remarkably surprising and impressive season. I already ceded the possibility of him getting the Comeback Player of the Year Award after seeing Chris Carpenter twirl a Cy Young worthy season. Then of course there's Aaron Boone, who came back to play after having open heart surgery.

But Nick Johnson? Sure, he hit .220 last year and barely got on the field. But he hit half the home runs the ToddFather hit this year and posted his worst wOBA in since 2005...

Big Mac and Big Daddy Reunion

The Rockies tried multiple times to bring Mark McGwire in as hitting coach while fellow slugger, friend and student Matt Holliday was here. It may not have worked out in Colorado, but Holliday will get his opportunity to be under full-time instruction from Big Mac if he chooses; Mark McGwire was just announced as St. Louis' new hitting coach. This could be a big draw for Holliday to re-sign with the Cardinals.

Tracy Ringolsby chimed in on the subject for FOX Sports, writing that McGwire's back, and there's nothing wrong with it - MLB News.

Colorado Sports

Two months ago, I wrote somewhere that the Rockies were suddenly in a fight with the Nuggets for the best professional Colorado sports team. Both had just polished off their best regular seasons in my lifetime, while the Avalanche and Broncos projected to be bottom feeders. It is interesting now that the Broncos (4th) and Avs (5th) actually sit higher in their respective ESPN power rankings than the most recent rankings for the Rockies (7th) and Nuggets (8th).

It's a good time for professional sports in Colorado. If the relative slowness of the Row has got you down, check out Mile High Hockey, the Mile High Report or Denver Stiffs.

Lastly...

Every kid's dream: the walkoff hit in baseball - The Denver Post: Troy Renck profiles the play we all imagined executing while growing up, including details on the players lucky and good enough to actually realize that dream.

Fewer words carry more weight for Fox's Buck, McCarver - The Denver Post. Dusty Saunders' first line: "Joe Buck and Tim McCarver are having their best postseason in the Fox Sports booth." Don't say I didn't warn you.

Sherman's Second Plan To Top Atlanta

Sam Page — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:01:03 -0000

Recently at the Post, Joel Sherman threw some water on the John Lackey dreams of many Mets fans, instead proposing a series of buy-low candidates the Mets would be prudent to acquire. His criteria reads:

So if the obvious avenues are blocked, where do the Mets go? I am going to recommend three starters that have this in common: They are AL flyball pitchers with high-end stuff, coming off bad years (all had 5.00-plus ERAs).

He is overstating the effect of switching leagues by totally ignoring qualified National League pitchers, but is definitely considering some qualities the Mets should pay more attention to. Did his search yield anyone worth acquiring?

Sherman's first suggestion is Jeremy Guthrie. He starts with a pretty convincing case against Guthrie:

Guthrie is coming off, by far, his worst season (10-17, 5.04 ERA), and his strikeout rate fell for a fourth straight year, never a good sign.

His strikeout rate didn't just decline, it went from barely average to bad:

via www.fangraphs.com

Guthrie seemingly never had very good stuff, which would violate Sherman's high-end stuff condition. But wait!

But Yankee hitters continued to praise his stuff.

That's a basically meaningless statement, since you wouldn't expect the Yankees to trash their opponents publicly. The assumption there, however, that a drop in "stuff" hasn't led to the drop in strikeout rate, is supported by Pitchf/x finding virtually no change in his pitches' movement. As for his extreme flyball tendencies, Sherman conflates some trends, and ignores most of his career numbers.

He yielded the most homers in a season in the AL since 2006 (35). Fewer than half (17) came at home, but he was the second most extreme flyball pitcher among qualified AL starters in 2009.

Guthrie, the third most extreme flyball pitcher among qualified AL starters in 2009, posted a 10.9% HR/FB, which is actually exactly equal to his career mark. In fact, the huge number of homeruns was the result of Guthrie going from a career extreme groundball pitcher to flyball pitcher suddenly. As a result, his homeruns allowed should only be expected to come down if you think he will revert back to a groundball pitcher suddenly, which is much less likely than simply regressing from some bad luck. While this expectation may be a decent gamble in itself, best-case Jeremy Guthrie is a groundball pitcher with averageish stuff, which is basically the opposite of what Sherman was trying to find. That being considered, Ruben Tejada and Bobby Parnell, Sherman's proposed package, is a horrible trade for a pitcher who is best case Pelfrey-lite and worst case, useless.

For his second proposal, Sherman does something odd, pointing out how team-abuse led to Gil Meche injuring his arm, then quotes the organization that abused him to prove Meche would be alright:

But he was doing bullpen sessions late in the year and two Royals officials told me that if the team was in contention, he would have been able to pitch.

Was it the same Royals official who said Meche's injury came from having the wrong "mindset"? Meche did have some bad luck with homeruns, the difference between bad 5.40 tRA and a not-good-at-all regressed 5.04 tRA*. There's precedent, however: throughout most of Meche's mostly forgettable Seattle career he posted similar HR/FB numbers. Bottom line: why trade for and subsequently pay $24MM dollars for two years of a huge injury risk, with higher-upside, cheaper, injury risks on the free agent market? Busted Gil Meche for two years or Rich Harden for one? Sherman fittingly proposes trading Castillo, because the Royals need fielding help, Sherman and Dayton Moore being the last two people on Earth who believe Luis Castillo plays anything better than horrible defense.

His third idea, Ervin Santana, is like Gil Meche in that he did have some bad luck with homers last year, but has the larger red flag of arm issues and a big contract. Unlike Meche, however, Santana is a year removed from a great 6 WAR season and could be worth the risk. For that same reason, though, he'd likely cost more in trade.

Not being one to criticize without contributing, however, I'll add three buy-low pitchers, who don't necessarily conform to Sherman's criteria (much like his own three).

1. Felipe Paulino- Paulino went 3-11 with a 6.27 ERA, which likely makes Astros GM Ed Wade's eyes bleed. Underneath those superficial stats, however, Paulino had very good peripherals and an absurd HR/FB rate, making his tRA* an above-average 4.42. He's got blazing stuff, a very unfavorable home ballpark, and his value couldn't be lower. Trading for Paulino seems like a total no-brainer.

2. Sergio Mitre- I think Mitre fits Sherman's rubric for a trade target better than any of his three. Mitre demonstrated middling stuff with improved control, but somehow gave up 10 homeruns in just 51 ML innings. With an ERA of 6.79, and an xFIP of 4.19, Mitre may be worth the rare cross-town trade.

3. Braden Looper- Seriously. Looper surrendered a crazy 39 homeruns, playing his home games in hitter-friendly Miller Park. In Citi Field, Looper could likely replicate his solid back-of-the-rotation or better performances with the Cardinals.

Similar buy-low candidates: Ricky Nolasco (the king of bad luck: pitched like an ace, ERA like someone on the Mets), Brett Myers, Aaron Cook, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Derek Lowe.

How Efficient and Effective Were the Colorado Rockies in 2009?

Jabberwocky — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 02:52:01 -0000

A common theme for Purple Row Academy this entire year has been looking at ways to quantify a player's value to a team, especially through the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) stat used notably by FanGraphs. For those who don't understand what WAR is or how it is calculated, here's a crash course from previous PR Academy sessions:

Position Players

Pitchers

By looking at the sum for a team of each player on that team's value, one can attempt to measure both how efficient and how effective that team was. But WAR is by definition an individual statistic and judging efficiency by WAR alone would be only the sum of individuals. This is problematic because seldom in baseball does the sum of the individual players' successes accurately measure the team's performance.

A metric measuring team performance to compare to the individual performance calculated by WAR is therefore what we require. What can we use to measure how well and how efficiently the team performed? There's always the simple end of season payroll vs. number of wins linear comparison to figure out MLB payroll efficiency using 3 year averages from 2006 to 2008, which I did a few months back.

But that is assuming that all wins are equal. As any economist worth their salt will tell you, this is patently false. In light of that, I'll go back a little farther back in PR Academy sessions to the concept of Marginal Wins.

If I had to explain this concept in two sentences, I'd say that MP and MW are basically setting a floor (minimum possible outcome) for both payroll (in 2009, $11.2 million--which happens with 25 players on the active roster plus 3 on the DL making the minimum of $400k) and wins (30% of all games, or 48.6 wins, which all but one team has accomplished since the implementation of the amateur draft in 1965). The farther the team reaches from this minimum plateau of wins, the more difficult (not to mention important and expensive) each incremental, or marginal, win becomes.

Marginal Payroll and Marginal Wins

The creator of the system, BP's Doug Pappas, explains that "the Marginal Payroll/Marginal Wins (MP/MW) system evaluates the efficiency of a club's front office by comparing its payroll and record to the performance it could expect to attain by fielding a roster of replacement-level players, all of whom are paid the major league minimum salary" (basically Wins Over Replacement Team). The formula is:

(club payroll - (28 x major league minimum) / ((winning percentage - .300) x 162)

The first half of the equation measures the club's marginal payroll and the second measures the marginal wins. The lower the number, the more efficiently the club spent its cash. Comparing this number to the club's actual winning percentage provides another way to evaluate teams. As Pappas explains:

Low MP/MW, good record: Efficient ballclub (2003 Marlins, Athletics)
Low MP/MW, bad record: Not spending enough to compete (2003 Devil Rays)
High MP/MW, good record: Spending its way to the top (2003 Yankees)
High MP/MW, bad record: Poorly-run club (2003 Mets, Rangers)

Since a team's payroll fluctuates throughout the year and I use Opening Day Payroll (ODP) to calculate MP/MW, this metric is probably best used to evaluate the efficiency of the front office's offseason moves and as a gauge for a team's expectations going into the year.

To emphasize the inequity of wins, this is what I said back then:

Though it can be (and has been) done by a small payroll team, going from 60 to 80 wins in MLB is an insignificant accomplishment on a macro level because those teams still miss the playoffs. In moving from 80 to 90 wins, however, a team goes from an also-ran to a bona fide playoff contender. After all, 68 of 78 teams (87%) in the last ten years that crossed the 90 win threshold made the playoffs, making these marginal wins much more important and therefore expensive.

For example, the average value of a marginal win in 2008 was about $2.7 million, but the value of a win getting you from 89-90 wins was worth almost $6 million.

It isn't a simple concept by any means, but I've found that MP/MW or WORT has produced some excellent results. I'll show how the Rockies did by this metric after the jump.

Rockies Historical MP/MW Performance

Using the formula above and FanGraphs WAR data, I've already crunched some numbers for the Rockies as to their efficiency from 2002-2008 (which is as far back as FanGraphs WAR data goes back). That analysis is here:

Given that data, I'll break down the Rockies' 2009 season in a similar fashion.

Rockies Historical Dollar Win Values

The Efficiency of the 2009 Colorado Rockies

Opening Day Payroll: $75,201,000

This season marked the highest ODP on record for the Rockies as a franchise, eclipsing the mark set in 2001 of $71,541,334. This was largely due to the arbitration raises given to six players. With an eye toward next year, the Rockies' ODP for 2010 looks to be higher due to the fact that they have 13 potential arbitration cases coming up this offseason (though they'll likely only have 10 returning to the team).

W-L Record: 92-70

This of course also marks a franchise record, besting the 90-73 mark of the 2007 team. This team was the best compensated Rockies team, and as their record bore out, the best performing team as well.

Linear Payroll Efficiency: $817,402

This number was found simply by dividing the Rockies' ODP by their win total. While this number is higher than other seasons in past years, this doesn't take into account the fact that ODPs have risen dramatically since the franchise's inception. For example, the Rockies won 67 games in 1993 with an ODP of $8,829,000 (LPE of $131,776). This is yet another reason that efficiency should be judged on the basis of marginal wins.

Marginal Payroll:

Formula: ((ODP) - (28 * League Minimum) = (($75,201,000 - (28 * 400,000) = $64,001,000

Again, this represents the amount that the Rockies spent above MLB's price floor ($11.2 million). This year's total is second most in team history to 2001's $65,941,334.

Marginal Wins:

Formula: ((Winning % - .300) * (# of games played)) = (.568 - .300) * (162) = 43.4 MW

This number represents the amount of wins the Rockies produced about the floor set by Pappas of 30% of games won (48.6). This total is the most in franchise history, defeating 2007's 41.1 MW total.

Marginal Payroll / Marginal Wins:

$64,001,000 / 43.4 = $1,464,677

This number represents how much money the Rockies spent per marginal win this year. It ranks below 2007 ($1,065,304) and a number of other years in which the Rockies had a much lower MP. With the salary growth in MLB so explosive these last two decades and considering that the cost of a marginal win in 2008 was $2.7 million, the Rockies' MP / MW number is really quite good. Last year, that number would have been fifth in MLB.

Team Hitting WAR: 18.7

On the whole the Rockies ranked 16th in MLB in this category, though AL teams have a leg up on NL teams because the above number includes hitting by pitchers, who "contributed" a total of -3.7 hitting WAR to the Rockies. That's why they're paid to pitch and not hit. Of course, it also includes Garrett Atkins (-0.5), who owes the Rockies $2.1 million for his "performance" in 2009. Courtesy of FanGraphs, here's a list of the Rockies' contributors to hitting WAR by player.

What is notable is that the Rockies had six players performing at least at a league average (about 2.0 WAR) level in 2009, the highest FanGraphs has measured (in 2008 we only had 3 such players), but had no superduperstar (Tulo's 5.5 WAR is great, but only ties him for 14th in MLB among hitters and 28th for all players). This makes sense, since a major strength of this team was its depth.

Historically, the Rockies' 18.7 hitting WAR puts them well behind 2007 (22.4 WAR) but bests every other season in the FanGraphs era.

Team Pitching WAR: 23.6

With this total, the Rockies tied the Red Sox for the best pitching from a WAR standpoint in 2009. It goes without saying, but this was the greatest pitching staff the Rockies have ever assembled. Here's the final list of 2009 Rockies pitching WAR contributors.

Of note is that all five members of the Rockies starting rotation posted at least league average performances (that's for any pitcher). Those five by themselves contributed 18.9 WAR! Ubaldo Jimenez's 5.7 WAR season is also by far the greatest Rockies pitching season ever, besting Aaron Cook's 4.7 last year. In addition to the starters' second place in MLB finish in pitching runs above average, the bullpen was sixth in MLB in PRAA.

The challenge next year will be maintaining both this high level of performance and the remarkable health this year of the entire roster.

Total WAR: 42.3

A good measure of a team's efficiency at the end of the year involves comparing its WAR totals to its MP / MW totals. If a team's marginal wins total exceeds its WAR total, then the performance of the team as a whole was greater than that of the sum of its parts.

In the case of the 2009 Rockies, this was certainly the case as Colorado finished with 1.1 more MW than their WAR data would have suggested.

Total Dollar Value of Player Production:

Here is Dave Cameron of Fangraphs on Dollar Win Value:

90 free agents signed major league contracts last winter, ranging from Alex’s Rodriguez $275 million deal to Josh Towers' $400,000 contract with the Rockies. The sum of those 90 contracts paid out $396 million in 2008. To figure out what the average cost per win of a 2007 free agent was, though, we need to know how many wins that group was worth.

To calculate this, I did a three year weighted average of their win values, then multiplied that value by .95 to factor in aging and estimate what teams considered a player’s true talent win rate for 2008. In total, I came up with 88 wins, or $4.5 million per win. That’s what major league teams were paying for a marginal win last winter, so for 2008, that’s a players dollar per win value as listed on the site. I re-did this for all years going back to 2002, and the dollars per win for each are as follows:

2002 - $2.6m / win
2003 - $2.8m / win
2004 - $3.1m / win
2005 - $3.4m / win
2006 - $3.7m / win
2007 - $4.1m / win
2008 - $4.5m / win

In other words, Cameron is showing that a free agent, on the whole, cost $4.5 million per WAR as of 2008--whereas an average marginal win in that year cost only $2.7 million. This fact serves to show that looking for marginal wins on the free agent market is an inefficient proposition. It is more efficient to build from within and to get lots of production from young cost-controlled players, as the Rockies have done.

Generally though, this reflection of value is based not on the actual cost of a MW but on the market cost of a MW. As I explained a few months ago:

Due to the nature of the calculation (each WAR in the dollar value calculation being equal to the market cost per MW, which was higher than the average cost per MW), the Rockies are consistently receiving a higher "dollar value" from their roster than their ODP may suggest. However, if this "dollar value" concept would be adjusted to reflect merely the average cost per MW each year (in other words, taking into account all players instead of just free agents), then the "dollar value" numbers would often be below a team's ODP--especially if that team rates low on the MP/MW formula.

According to the "dollar value" concept as FanGraphs has it ($4.5 million per WAR), the Rockies as a collection of individuals produced $190,350,000 of value. Hitters were responsible for $84.15 million while pitchers contributed $106.2 million ($85.05 million of which came from the starting rotation). When the whole team is considered ($4.5 million per MW), the value produced is $195,300,000--again, the whole equaling more than the sum of its parts.

This valuation is assuming that the Rockies had built their team entirely of free agents, which is obviously not the case. Using my "home brew" calculation of $2.7 million per MW (a reflection of all marginal wins, not just FA MW), the Rockies as individuals produced a more realistic $114,245,023 of value. As a team, the Rockies produced $117,215,934. This shows that compared to their ODP in 2009, Colorado had surplus value of $42,014,934--a number which would certainly rank very highly in MLB this year (if I had the time I would prove it), though behind the 2007 squad in terms of efficiency.

Effectiveness

Of course, the Rockies were far from the most efficient team in MLB this year. That title belongs once again to the Florida Marlins, who had a MP/MW ratio in 2009 of $667,552 per MW. But the Marlins were not the most effective team in baseball, as they did not parlay their excellent marginal wins ratio into a playoff berth (and the revenue that comes with it).

My definition of MLB effectiveness gives a heavy weight to playoff appearances and championships. For that reason, I'd argue that the Rockies this year were the most effective club in baseball (with the possible exception of the World Series winner, as long as it isn't the Yankees). And for what it's worth, any of the four teams still alive that win the championship will have done so inefficiently.

The Rockies have created among the highest marginal win totals in MLB despite having a lower-half payroll (18th) and securing a playoff berth. What is remarkable is that the Rockies can say this for the second time in three years. Truly we fans are lucky to be following a smart organization that seems primed to continue their success in the near future.

Looking back, looking forward: Rocktober Rumination

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 12:54:31 -0000

Thia ain't over yet, Todd. You'll get another shot at it.

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I'm tired.

Monday night I quietly rode the AF bus home from the Market Street station, listening to a couple people casually talking about the game, mispronouncing names and referring to critical players as "that guy" or "that one player who hit it". At this point, I'm rolling my eyes, but I'm not going to interject them and tell them what was really up. I've been doing that all season. I'm the Rockies guy. Everyone asks me about trades, the roster, "what's up with the pitching?" etc. In fact, after Game 1 in Philly, I showed up to a class for my Master's program about 10 minutes late, and the professor said, "I'm so sorry". No admonishment, no note of late attendance, but rather sympathy.

No, the season is over. I'm not the Rockies guy tonight. I'll let them have their conversation without bothering them. Instead, I just clicked on the light on up above me and went back to my book, "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip through Buck O'Neil's America". It's a nice, quiet book about Buck O'Neil's experiences in baseball, and his experiences as an African-American living in the US during the time when he played baseball. It's a good book to ease a heart aching from a long season cut too short.

I woke up Tuesday morning and it was one of the first really dark mornings we've had this fall. I wondered what time it was, if I'd woken up too early, etc. I showered, ate, dressed, and headed out to my car, and the sky was dark and overcast, gloomy, unhappy, ready for winter. It's kind of amusing how the weather and the season coincided: an overcast gloomy morning, no sun in sight, and Rockies baseball has ended for the year.

It does sort of feel like our joy has left, the team and sport that get us all excited and giddy every summer, the sport that makes me suddenly get all snobbish to other sports fans. Now it's done, I feel like the guy in that Colorado state lottery ad, where he's at Invesco, and the Raiders fans make him go up top, and he sits down all dejectedly and defeated. That's how I feel right now, like I have to give up and go to the Pepsi Center or Invesco or something and slump down into a box seat to try and root for teams I really don't care about anymore (the Avs are somewhat an exception: I half-care about them) and join the teeming masses who just don't GET why I'm kind of bummed out now, they're just ready to go root for another Denver team who's winning at the moment.

But it isn't the same, the Broncos, the Avs, the Nuggets - they're not the Rockies. The Broncos, Nuggets, Avs - they seem to be built on hype, on loud noises, on good will from championships past. Sure, we had 2007, but how much of the bandwagon dissipated as the festering horde of Red Sox fans crowded the seats around home plate chanting "RE-SIGN LOWELL! RE-SIGN LOWELL!"?

More past the jump

Such a contrast from 2007. (As I'm typing this, The Way I Are by Timbaland just came up on my iPod.) Atkins is a shadow of his former self, Hawpe sat, Fogg watched, and Jamey Carroll is whiling the days away in Cleveland.

Instead, we have the future of Colorado Outfield Dominance in Gonzalez, a raw but intriguing Fowler, and a gem of a quiet star in Seth Smith, not to mention hope for Ian Stewart. The bullpen today is filled with strikeout artists and specialists, a pitcher for every situation. The bench features 2007 starters and Jason Giambi. It's more complete, deeper, and more dangerous.

We need to be ready to move on. Rocktober is going to be our gimmick for decades to come, but the Rocktober crew has more or less headed down the trail. This new generation of players is here, and these are the guys that are going to carry us to glory.

The thing is, the 2009 postseason, for me, wasn't Rocktober. I mean, sure, that's what all the signs and the newspapers and the towels and street signs said, that it was Rocktober, but this really wasn't Rocktober to me. To me, Rocktober was the absolute magic and heart and gumption and whatever forces of nature and the supernatural shoved us through the month of September and caused us to sweep our way to the World Series.

Rocktober was the first time in years that Rockies fans could watch a game any given day and expect to win, rather than simply hope and then be surprised. Rocktober was the little guy finally fighting back. Rocktober wasn't sustained success, that's just the Rockies. Rocktober was this club bursting into a scene where we didn't belong and saying "Hey, you'd best watch out, because we're coming".

Rocktober was the proof that O'Dowd's plan worked. A nearly homegrown roster catching absolute fire and sweeping their way to the World Series. Rocktober was about the first wave of guys who really weren't supposed to make it, who would need one revision to bring up the Fowlers and the Stewarts and Jimenezes. Then we'd make it. This was the roster that played so well for about half the season to make up for a poor beginning, and then finding themselves behind the pack, ignited everything they had left and inexplicably kept on winning.

Rocktober was a garbage sac fly in the 13^th inning. Rocktober was a slapped pinch-hit single through the 1B hole by a power hitting bench player to score a runner from 3B. Rocktober was a 3-run shot in pouring October rain. Rocktober was a headfirst slide. Rocktober was "they just...don't...lose" and they didn't. It was a team from the moon who had just installed a humidor who played world-class defense and nobody knew much else about them. A Canadian soft-tossing southpaw, 2 rookies, and a Dragon Slayer who seemed to find the W against the cream of the competition. Superstition, speed, camaraderie, controversy: that's Rocktober.

"But the Rockies are in the postseason - isn't that Rocktober?" Well, I guess it can be. When the jumbotron is coaching the fans to cheer "ROCK...TOBER" to loud beats, it feels as if the people in marketing grabbed the creative nickname that seemed to materialize from excitement alone in 2007 and now they're flooding the Denver sports market with this slogan as if this were an election year for a postseason berth. Whatever happened to "GO...ROCKIES"?

2007 was a magical season. 2009 was a deserved season. But it almost seemed as if those in charge were working to make 2009 reclaim the magic of 2007. Atkins at 3B. Yorvy behind the plate. Morales in the bullpen.

But it's just not the same. Holliday was Bucknering up another series. Francis and Corpas were on the DL. Kaz Matsui was golfing. That magic just wasn't there, and it's the kind of magic you just can't recreate, no matter how many towels you hand out and no matter how many places you paste the word Rocktober around town.

I'm not really advocating that the slogan Rocktober not be used anymore. I'm not. It's fun. It's a word the nation recognizes and Denver rallies around. But clinching the playoffs 3 days out and having meaningless games (relative to a postseason berth) takes some of the fire out, the momentum. No, friends, what we saw in October of 2009 was the Colorado Rockies. Not Rocktober. The Rockies who lost in 4 were the Real Deal. We got there legitimately, and we were beaten legitimately.

It sounds trite, but this is what real teams do. They work hard, they play hard, they win some, they lose some. We just had the best season in franchise history, the pitching staff we've been dreaming of for years, where our #5 was actually our #5, and not our #2. A legitimate closer, despite his late collapse. Midseason trades that fortified the roster this year, not next year. Desperation moves to keep the rotation in order and keep us winning. This team played and was run like a real team is, a winning team. This wasn't Rocktober.

No, Rocktober is a thing of legend. Something to tell your kids about, how a team of young players with a few mixed-in veterans, some bordering on washed up already, some just starting their careers. rookies, journeymen, and a man whose mother petitioned God for a win. That's Rocktober. It made a splash, made us an anomaly that could improbably resurrect and inexplicably win. Now we're a team poised to remain a yearly threat to play again.

So what do I call this? This thing our team is now?

I call it successful.

It's Tuesday afternoon now. I just boarded the AF bus, not 24 hours after the loss. I rode the mall ride, and without surprise, I saw roughly zero people wearing Rockies gear, about as much as I'd expect to see any day. As the AF emerges from the Market Street Station's underground garage, I glance out the window. The light poles have CU Football banners on them, and the town is back to regular downtown colors, no longer a purple festival.

I crack open my book to spend a bit of time learning about how much Buck O'Neil loved Jazz music. The bus rumbles past a few shaded buildings, and we approach Auraria Parkway. As I look back toward Coors Field, I squint a bit at the reflected glare off of a street sign, and lower my sunglasses off of my forehead over my eyes.

It's just too bright out there.

from Photobucket user UNCBears21

Tuesday Rockpile: Thanks for a great season, Rockies

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:30:14 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

No, this picture had nothing to do with last night. But wouldn't you rather look at this than another picture of a dejected Huston Street. This is what I'll remember the 2009 Rockies for anyway.

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I don't even know where to start. One thing is for sure though: despite the both premature and surprisingly late end to the Rocktober season last night, this 2009 Rockies team deserves to be celebrated. After the toughest game I have ever witnessed, muzia02, I, and a handful of others fought back tears to stand and applaud the Rockies as they walked off the field. They deserved it. What an incredible ride 2009 was. And my, how bright the future is. We finally got a glimpse of it last night.

As is often the case, Drew Litton depicts it better than anyone.

www.drewlitton.com

We'll be reflecting back upon this season a lot throughout the offseason, but I found myself unwilling to let go of this team last night, like I was a woman at her lover's premature funeral. I poured through the Purple Row archives, and I urge you all to remember everywhere this team has been.

The High Times:

April 27: Dexter Fowler steals 5 bases in 12-7 victory over Padres
That's two in a row after the Rockies defeated the Padres 12-7 tonight.

May 29: Torrealba and Marquis lead patient Rockies to win in Tracy's first game as Rockies manager
The Rockies used a patient approach that Clint Hurdle couldn't draw out to defeat the Padres on Friday night, winning Jim Tracy's managerial debut for the club.

June 14: Rockies Make it 11 Straight Victories: Rockies 7, Mariners 1
This one does indeed go to eleven.

June 19: Rockies Go Over .500, Win 14th of 15: Rockies 7, Pirates 3
Some said they would be happy to see the team reach .500 by the end of the season. It was just one of many milestones the team pushed past expectations.

June 20: Rockies 9, Pirates 7: DID I JUST SEE THAT?! Rockies clinch another series
The Rockies win again, this time in the most dramatic fashion of the season.

More high times, low times, and all the news that's fit to click after the jump.

June 22: Rockies 11, Angels, 1: On Brad Hawpe's birthday, Aaron Cook picks up 59th victory to become winningest Rockies pitcher
The Rockies have now won 17 of 18. Woo!

June 28: Rockies 3, A's 1: Rockies Sweep A's, Win 20th out of 23 - Purple Row
The epic streak knows no bounds.

June 30: Rockies 3, Dodgers 0: Jason Marquis (well, and Brad Hawpe). Seriously.
Rockies 3, Dodgers 0: Jason Marquis delivered arguably the best performance in franchise history for a starting pitcher.

July 12: Rockies End 1st Half in Dramatic Fashion, Defeat Braves 8-7
Rockies End 1st Half in Dramatic Fashion, Defeat Braves 8-7.

July 20: Rockies 10, Diamondbacks 6: Rockies take Wild Card lead on Whacking Day!
Rockies take the Wild Card lead!

July 22: Rockies 4, Diamondbacks 3: Todd Helton hits game-winning homer and 500th double to take two of three
Todd Helton was the man of the day for hitting his 500th double and the game-winning home run.

August 10: Troy Tulowitzki hits for the cycle in victory over Cubs
Troy Tulowitzki hit for the cycle. He is only the third player to hit for the cycle and turn an unassisted triple play.

August 17: Ringolsby: Tyler Matzek signs for $3.9 million

August 25: Rockies 6, Giants 4: Ryan Spilborghs hits walkoff grand slam in the 14th
The Rockies just won on a walkoff grand slam in the 14th. Celebrate!

September 2: Rockies 5, Mets 2: Giambino's first hit wins game for Rockies
Jason Giambi delivered with the go-ahead RBIs.

September 11: Amazing Eight! Mujica tries to bust Rockies mojo, but Yorvit Torrealba rallies Colorado to win with ninth inning double
The Colorado Rockies seven game win streak was snapped by the San Diego Padres Friday night, but the Rockies didn't lose any ground in the wild card chase.

October 1: Cook stellar as Rockies clinch playoff spot, team's patience shines through in season and game
The telling stat from the Rockies playoff clinching win on Thursday might have been the sheer volume of pitches they saw.

The Low Times:

April 25: Dodgers 6, Rockies 5: Time to Pull Your Hair Out
The Rockies lose 6-5 - again - after another poor outing by Ubaldo Jimenez.

May 16: Critique of Pure Reason: sometimes Rockies just Kant win
The Rockies were meant to lose to Pittsburgh on Saturday night, or maybe they weren't, but how could we possibly know that from our experience?

May 17: A Treatise on the Sufferings Wrought by the Rockies on Rox Girl and a Manifesto of what has to be changed.
Rox Girl has had enough.

May 25: Memorial Day Massacre: Dodgers 16, Rockies 6
The Rockies let the Dodgers win in a bloodbath, giving up seven runs in the fourth inning, eight in the seventh in a loss on Monday afternoon.

May 29: Rockies fire Clint Hurdle

June 3: Colorado Rockies lose fourth straight game: Astros 6, Rockies 4
Luckily, we know now this was literally rock bottom.

July 4: Diamondbacks 11, Rockies 7: Bullpen explodes before fireworks show
Joel Peralta blows Aaron Cook's chance at NL's 2nd best 9 wins

July 27: Fernando Tatis and Mets imply that Rockies bullpen might still need help
The Rockies lost to the Mets 7-3 on a Fernando Tatis grand slam.

July 28: Mets 4, Rockies 0: Offensive struggles doom Rox again
Mets 4, Rockies 0: Offensive struggles doom Rox again

August 30: Giants 9, Rockies 5: Bullpen hands San Francisco share of wild card lead - Purple Row
Colorado is tied for the wild card lead, but it's not so exciting how it happened this time

The Denver Post has an impressive assortment of articles by a slew of writers about last night and the entire season. My numbness and lack of time don't allow me to read everything yet, but here it is.

The Final Game of 2009

Phillies fight off Rockies 5-4 in Game 4 at Coors Field - The Denver Post
Phillies fight off Rockies 5-4 in Game 4 at Coors Field

Rockies, fans stunned in Phillies comeback - The Denver Post
John Ingold knows how to to bring on the tears. He just pulled the kid card:

"Eleven-year-old Mark Auger gazed dejectedly down at the suddenly empty baseball diamond, then took the inside-out rally cap off his head and flipped it back outside-out.

Rocktober was over."

Wild Mood Swings: Phillies 5, Rockies 4 - The Good Phight
Stomachs churned, fists pumped and voices went as the Phillies took a thrilling 5-4 win over the Rockies to close out the National League Division Series in four games.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies - Recap - October 12, 2009 - ESPN
MLB Baseball Recap: Final statistics from the Philadelphia vs. Colorado game played on October 12, 2009

Inside the Colorado Rockies " Street Suffers A Bitter Loss | Major League Baseball in Denver I love Huston Street. He absolutely must come back as the Rockies' closer next year.

Kiszla: Weight of world tough to bear for Rockies' Street - The Denver Post

NLDS Game 4: Bests and worsts - The Denver Post
NLDS Game 4: Bests and worsts

More Reflection

Armstrong: Phillies no match for Gonzalez' big bat - The Denver Post

Phillies expect to see Rockies in postseason again - The Denver Post
Phillies expect to see Rockies in postseason again

Instinct takes over as Fowler leaps into second - The Denver Post
Instinct takes over as Fowler leaps into second

Krieger: Rockies bring love to LoDo before questions for next year - The Denver Post
Krieger: Rockies bring love to LoDo before questions for next year

BtB Power Rankings: End of 2009 Season Data - Beyond the Box Score
For those sabermetrically inclined, the Rockies finished 4th in MLB in JinAZ's final season power rankings, behind the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox. Yes, there's no NL team in there.

We'll have plenty of time to banter about the future. Let's give this team the applause it deserved. It was a heck of a ride.

Friday Rockpile: As the postseason turns. . . .

Russ Oates — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:03:17 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Double up-top!

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Rockies overcome Phillies 5-4 to head home even - The Denver Post
Yorvit Torrealba was the star of the Rockies' movie yesterday afternoon. With a Rockies win in Act I, Scene II (of a three-act play), the stage transitions to the city of Denver.

Phillies manager still being mysterious about Game 3 starter - The Denver Post
Charlie, choose someone already. Or choose Pedro Martinez so I can see him round the bases on a snowmobile (or so I hear he wants to do).

Giambi's advice to young Rockies pays off - The Denver Post
Inside the Colorado Rockies " Giambi Speaks; Fowler Listens | Major League Baseball in Denver
Are we sure it wasn't the golden thong that paid off for the youngsters?

De La Rosa to test groin; Hammel OK with snowfall - The Denver Post
Jorge De La Rosa sounds as if things are feeling better for him, but we'll need to wait for his bullpen session tomorrow. And apparently Jason Hammel played in a quadrupleheader in the snow years ago. Damn, I'd like to have been in the stands.

Micromanaging Jim Tracy's fingerprints all over Rockies' last six outs - The Denver Post
Here it worked out.

Kiszla: These "meatballs" are having fun - The Denver Post
Carlos Gonzalz wants to face Pedro Martinez Saturday, because he owns him when hitting against him in video games. In other news, I can't hit any pitcher in a video game and haven't played virtual baseball since March.

Postseason isn't life or death for Rockies' Aaron Cook - The Denver Post
Aaron Cook leaves it all on the field or in the clubhouse before going home to his wife and kids.