SB Nation - Chris Iannetta

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

Tuesday Rockpile: Rafael Betancourt is officially a Rockie again

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:42:20 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

These two guys' fates seem to have shifted a bit.

Browse more photos »

Some GM's, like David Dombrowski, choose to use the Winter Meetings to contact every team about Edwin Jackson - including the Rockies - only to pull him off the table. Instead, it seems Dan O'Dowd spent the majority of his time secluded in his room talking with his own players' agents yesterday.

Dan O'Dowd and Rafael Betancourt had danced in and out of option year, two year contract and three year contract discussions, with the Betancourt ultimately accepting arbitration (Renck) late last night. He'll likely make close to what he did had the Rockies exercised his option.

Thomas Harding reports that, as expected, Jason Marquis has declined arbitration (Harding), rewarding the Rockies with a sandwich pick for having the guts to risk dealing with his eight figure salary had he accepted. In truth, you would be hard pressed to find a more clearcut case for declining $10+mil guaranteed around the league.

Troy Renck reported that O'Dowd has been working on multi-year deals for Huston Street, Clint Barmes and Chris Iannetta, as fanshotted below by Hizilla. Street has been seeking $30mil, but the ultimate offer should be closer to $25mil.

As for locking up Iannetta (Harding), the deal is a buy-low contract that would buy out his arbitration years. It would be unlikely to pay him much more than he would receive those years. Harding notes that Iannetta actually improved his slugging percentage last season by twenty points. Who knew? A quick note from the bottom of the article. Dan O'Dowd said "[Franklin Morales] is going back into our bullpen."

As noted early in the day, the Rockies cleared space for Ryan Spilborghs (Harding). In deciding not to sell low on the gaucho, Dan O'Dowd had to tell Matt Murton he was once again squeezed from a deserved MLB roster spot. He was then sold to a team in Japan. I hope he can return to get another shot on this side of the Pacific in 2011.

For a brief wrap of NL West Rumors from the meetings, take the jump.

Arizona

MLBTR reports several teams are interested in reliever JJ Putz, including Arizona.

The Diamondbacks reportedly pushed yesterday's blockbuster trade, in which they would send Max Scherzer and one or two prospects while receiving Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. The deal would also involve Curtis Granderson. While Joel Sherman called the deal dead and Buster Olney is "unsure if the embers can be re-lit", there is one optimist. Jon Paul Morosi reports it is still a possibility.

Arizona beat writer Nick Piecoro's head must have been spinning, as he clearly disagreed with the idea of offering Scherzer for Jackson.

Los Angeles

While Los Angeles has no plans to decrease payroll (Dylan Hernandez, LA Times), they don't seem to be in much of a place of power. The Mets reportedly agreed to send Luis Castillo to Los Angeles for Juan Pierre, a move that would improve the Dodgers' starting lineup and take an expensive bench player off the books, but Ned Colletti wants pitching in return.

The Blue Jays talked to the Dodgers about Roy Halladay (Jayson Stark) but there is expectedly no match there

Colletti is also open to dealing lefty George Sherrill.

San Diego

The Padres will apparently non-tender Kevin Correia MLBTR), who was clearly their most valuable pitcher from start to finish. The former Giant had just a $750k base salary last season. It's a very sad cheap move from the Friars, but I guess they'll need to the money to pay their closer. While Heath Bell is one of their most enticing trade chips, San Diego's new GM Jed Hoyer seems inclined to keep Bell (Corey Brock, MLB.com), who would garner about a $5mil salary next season.

San Diego has also been linked to outfielder Reed Johnson (Bill Center, San Diego Union Tribune) and are now on the prowl for a backup catcher with the loss of Henry Blanco (Center).

San Francisco

St. Louis put a dent in the Giants' rotational depth, as the Cards signed Brad Penny to a one -year $7.5mil base salary contract (Buster Olney). He will likely have a physical tomorrow to complete the deal.

MLB.com's Chris Haft has some Giants nuggets - Eugenio Velez or Andres Torres will be their leadoff hitter, neither Pablo Sandoval nor Ryan Garko will catch at all next year, and the Giants might attempt to acquire Juan Rivera if the Angels sign Jason Bay.

Speaking of Garko, he is still "on the bubble" for being non-tendered a contract, according to Sabean (Andrew Baggarly).

Only one NL team remains a serious player for Dan Uggla, that team being San Francisco (Joe Frisaro, MLB.com). The Orioles are the most likely landing spot.

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

NL West in Review: Catchers

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Only two NL West catchers were above league average with the bat in 2009 (by wOBA). Neither played on the Pacific coast.

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Each of the past three years, the NL West has been home to an emerging and promising young catcher. In 2007, it was Russell Martin. In 2008 - it was Chris Iannetta's time to shine, and this season brought the surprising leap to prominence for Miguel Montero.

With Bengie Molina leaving in free agency, youth is served. Montero, Iannetta, Martin and Nick Hundley were all born the year before George Orwell's nightmare, and 22yo Buster Posey is waiting in the wings to take over soon. Of course, this article is meant to focus on 2009 though.

In past installments, the limitations of UZR have been illuminated, casting doubt on these numbers. So what could be worse than an inconsistent/inaccurate defensive metric? How about eliminating defense from consideration altogether. Fangraphs' WAR does just that for catchers, and given that I have been using their methodology, I was forced to as well. THT's Jeremy Greenhouse warns:

Do not place undue trust in WAR for catchers. How much of a catcher's value do you think is in his defense? I'll give you a hint: it's a lot. FanGraphs has unfortunately yet to give an effort to quantifying this vital aspect of the game, other than with the positional adjustment. In fact, catchers should possibly be considered a separate group of players with a separate replacement level and therefore be treated as different from all other position players.

Now, given that I have ruined the legitimacy of all ensuing data, let's look at the numbers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.266	22	79	.352	.437	.342	4.09
2. Colorado	4	.255	18	89	.343	.415	.329	3.28
3. Los Angeles	3	.259	8	69	.342	.338	.314	2.46
4. San Francisco	5	.257	21	89	.280	.409	.301	1.72
5. San Diego	4	.225	16	52	.293	.367	.299	1.56

The Diamondbacks rode the transformation of Montero from backup to cleanup hitter to the top of the division behind the dish. As noted above, defense is ignored in catcher WAR. With team replacement values and positional value essentially equivalent, offense is the only determining factor:

For the full rankings and team rundowns, click the words below.

As noted in the photo caption, only two of the 20 catchers (with 10+ PA) hit above the major league average wOBA.

Rank	Player	Team	PA	GS	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1	Miguel Montero	AZ	441	101	.295	16	55	.353	.483	.361	3.12
2	Russell Martin	LAD	568	133	.252	7	43	.349	.333	.318	2.42
3	Bengie Molina	SFG	505	120	.268	19	74	.287	.441	.313	1.98
4	Chris Iannetta	COL	345	87	.225	15	50	.340	.449	.333	1.85
5	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	242	61	.290	2	31	.351	.379	.328	1.22
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
14	Buster Posey	SFG	16	4	.125	0	0	.125	.125	.226	-0.03
15	Luke Carlin	AZ	15	4	.200	0	1	.200	.200	.179	-0.07
16	A.J. Ellis	LAD	9	2	.111	0	1	.111	.111	.103	-0.09
17	Jose Lobaton	SDP	17	5	.176	0	0	.176	.176	.160	-0.10
18	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	110	28	.178	2	8	.200	.262	.201	-0.37

The franchise hasn't been shy about suggesting the Buster Posey might start the season at AAA. With Bengie Molina expected to leave in free agency, San Francisco will have to add a catcher in free agency if they want to keep Posey's seat warm. Troy Renck wrote last night to keep an eye on Yorvit Torrealba for that role. It makes a lot of sense from both sides. However, even starting Posey Opening Day might not be a bad idea. CHONE projects him to post a .325 wOBA next season, compared to Molina's .308 performance in 2009.

Poll

Considering all we know financially, who should be the Rockies' backup catcher to start the 2010 season?

Yorvit Torrealba

32 votes

Paul Phillips

107 votes

Michael McKenry

39 votes

Brian Schneider

10 votes

A different low level free agent

7 votes

A different non-roster invitee

4 votes

Chris Iannetta

25 votes

224 votes | Poll has closed

Tuesday Rockpile: CHONE is back in town (not Figgins)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:41:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

CHONE doesn't buy CarGo's strong 2nd half.

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The 2010 CHONE Projections have been posted. I recommend switching to wide view to see the table.

In case you're curious what would happen if Colorado opened the season with Jeff Kindel, Rex Rundgren, Daniel Mayora and Darin Holcomb in the infield, their projections (among others) are in the link. However, I filtered out the minor leaguers, and here are the projected main contributors for 2010.

Note CHONE tempers its expectations on Tulo and Cargo, which is typical for a projection system for young players. Exceeding those expectations would give the Rockies not only on-field success but offensive starpower the team lacked.

Player	Pos	Age	G	HR	RBI	SB	CS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Helton, Todd	1B	36	134	13	68	0	1	582	.284	.385	.430	.364
Young, Eric	2B	25	149	8	38	39	18	547	.276	.347	.398	.332
Barmes, Clint	2B	31	136	15	58	8	6	509	.258	.306	.420	.314
Stewart, Ian	3B	25	145	22	75	6	4	499	.263	.349	.483	.359
Iannetta, Chris	C	27	105	15	53	0	0	384	.260	.370	.465	.367
Fowler, Dexter	CF	24	124	4	31	21	11	414	.271	.365	.391	.338
Smith, Seth	OF	27	135	15	60	4	2	428	.291	.374	.489	.376
Hawpe, Brad	OF	31	144	23	86	1	2	572	.271	.365	.482	.368
Gonzalez, Carlos	OF	24	134	15	66	12	6	462	.285	.342	.478	.354
Murton, Matt	OF	28	129	10	52	5	2	438	.280	.349	.427	.343
Spilborghs, Ryan	OF	30	127	10	49	7	4	398	.271	.352	.424	.342
Tulowitzki, Troy	SS	25	142	22	80	10	8	580	.292	.369	.497	.373

Should we be surprised few outside of Colorado expected the Rockies to make the playoffs down the stretch? The Rockies won with depth, which just isn't sexy. They are projected to have great depth again in 2010, with only Clint Barmes having a below average wOBA. Their third "most valuable" hitter in 2009 came off the bench in a third of his games. The 3-4 hitters combined for 15 HR in 2008. The team's two All-Stars combined for just eight AB's in the playoffs. Th top three hitters were only 15th in WAR in MLB, behind the Padres, Nats and Mariners as well as every playoff team/contender sans Atlanta and the Giants. In addition to the team's history, is it any wonder the Rockies weren't viewed as legitimate?

The idea that Rockies pitching can be good has yet to truly sink in among casual fans, and Joe Fan/John Kruk don't have the time/desire to evaluate depths of teams. They look for starpower, and admittedly, the Rockies were a little shy in that department last season. Should we see a repeat performance from Cargo and Tulo in 2010, there may be some recognition of the mountain time zone, although truly, it was a joy to expect and then see the Rockies defy expectations down the stretch.

Links

The Rockies and Diamondbacks officially broke ground on their spring training facility in Scottsdale, Arizona yesterday. It is set to be completed approximately 435 days from now, just in time for use for the 2011 season.

As linked in the Rockpile yesterday, Juan Morillo is headed to Japan. Remember when Dan O'Dowd replaced him on the roster in April with some dude from Tampa Bay? Good move.

Patrick Saunders opines that Dexter Fowler deserved better than eighth place in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I would disagree with his assessment that this is a "banner year for rookies," but I am a bit surprised he got no more love than Gerardo Parra or Everth Cabrera.

Fangraphs awarded their 2009 Carter-Batista Award, an award given to a player whose perceived value is most inflated by RBI. The winner was rumored to be acquired by the Rockies before the season, while Bengie Molina tops the three-year leaderboard.

The Hardball Times compares Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw, noting both electric young NL West southpaws have something else in common - traffic on the basepaths. Who would you rather have on your team in 2010? Troy Patterson's answer may surprise you.

The State of the Rockies: Post GM Meetings Update

Jabberwocky — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:42:43 -0000

In what will be a semi-weekly occurrence from now until January on Purple Row Academy, I'm going to update my post on the State of the Rockies. In other words, I will update my loyal readers (all three of you)--as well as anyone ~~stupid~~ intrepid enough to follow me after the jump as to the roster framework the Rockies are looking at as some big offseason deadlines approach.

This week, I'll be looking at what has happened thus far for the Rockies and what that means going forward. Also discussed will be the Rockies' impending decision on Rafael Betancourt's club option and how the Rockies are affected by the Elias Free Agent classifications.

By next week, we should have a better idea of what the Rockies are doing as the beginning of free agency and the deadline to set 40 man rosters approaches (November 20th).

Jump with me, brave souls, to roster-building nirvana...

Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man, they will be paid the prorated minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This list of players the Rockies definitely owe money to next year has become more certain, especially since Colorado declined the options of Embree and Torrealba as I predicted. Embree won't be back, but as RG wrote this morning, the door is open for Torrealba to return.

Pre-Arbitration Players

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$2,897,390

The main difference on this pre-arb chart is that I've taken out Paul Phillips, who was outrighted on Monday to clear up 40 man roster spots and looks like he'll become a free agent. That leaves a hole in the projected roster at backup catcher, perhaps to be filled by Torrealba, a cheaper in-house option such as Mike McKenry, or even a free agent catcher.

Even with the extra spot in the roster open, I'm not using Matt Murton to fill it because he would be the sixth outfielder. One of Murton, Ryan Spilborghs, and Hawpe will likely be gone--and more than one leaving is possible.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Since my previous post two weeks ago, the Rockies have avoided salary arbitration with two of their prospective cases, relievers Randy Flores and Matt Belisle. The Rockies were able to secure the services of these two relievers for less than I had predicted--Flores for $650,000 and Belisle for $850000, raises of 6.25 and 8.33% respectively. Both contracts have incentives based on number of appearances, neither of which I predict will be triggered.

With Belisle and Flores in the fold, the Rockies stil have eight potential arbitration cases to negotiate--including that of Garrett Atkins, who is almost certain to be non-tendered. The Rockies may (should) do this before the November 20th deadline for setting the 40 man roster in order to protect another prospect from the Rule 5 draft. Let's face it: Atkins won't engender much interest from teams at his current price point (minimum of $5.64 million). For that reason I'm removing him from the below chart. Bold numbers represent concrete salaries, not just predictions

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	6.25%
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	8.33%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$25,837,560	141.06%

As you can see, this is considerably less than two weeks ago, due mostly to Atkins but also because Belisle and Flores were signed more cheaply than I had anticipated. Another effect of Atkins being removed is that the Rockies' average player salary increase from arbitration is closer to reflecting the league average of 172%.

Of the seven arbitration cases that remain, I could really see De La Rosa and maybe Spilborghs getting to actual salary arbitration. De La Rosa in particular could garner a larger salary than I predict here (more in the $6.5 million range). Meanwhile, Barmes and Street seem more likley to take the multi-year contract route and might have lower salaries this year than I'd projected.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control (besides Atkins, that is) and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 22 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore the salary of three players would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $2,897,390

Arbitration Contracts: $25,837,560

Total ODP: $76,792,950

In other words, a roster that still has three spots open is about $1.6 million over last year's ODP.

The Betancourt Variable

The variables as far as the Rockies are concerned from now until November 20th are their free agents. The most pressing and important of these players to the front office is set-up man Rafael Betancourt, whose $5.4 million club option expires tomorrow.

Betancourt has reportedly already turned down a multi-year offer from the Rockies, so it is important for Dan O'Dowd to decide whether he wants the 35 year old Betancourt to be the set-up man next year or not. If the option is declined, Betancourt may still be retained, but the Rockies will have to bid against other teams for his services.

I've made my opinion on the issue of bullpen spending pretty clear--I believe that bullpen performance is highly variable, very fungible, and an inefficient use of salary dollars. Obviously many people disagree with me on this, but I'd prefer the Rockies to bring back Jose Contreras as a combo set-up man rotation insurance.

As Thomas Harding notes, the Rockies are interested in re-signing Contreras and Joe Beimel, who combined will probably make about the same as Betancourt's club option.

Free Agent Classification

Another reason for the Rockies to perhaps let Betancourt go would be his status as a Type A free agent. I wrote about free agency compensation several months ago, but the gist is that the top 20% of players in their positional groups (1B/DH/OF, 2B/SS/3B, C, SP, RP) as calculated by Elias are classified as Type A free agents. The formula for these calculations is complicated, convoluted, and confidential, rarely making a list that makes much sense.

In return for losing one of these players in free agency, a club receives the signing club's first round pick in the Rule 4 draft as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. As I discussed in my analysis of the Betancourt trade back in July, the draft picks from a type A free agent are typically worth $5 million to a team. In fact, in that article I recommended that the Rockies decline Betancourt's option and retain the draft picks.

Unfortunately, the Rockies would have to offer Betancourt arbitration in order to receive the draft picks in return--and in this lackluster market, the risk is high that Betancourt will accept and get even more than the $5.4 million club option. The same logic applies to Colorado's other free agents. If the Rockies want to take advantage of the Type B status (sandwich pick as compensation) of Jason Marquis, Torrealba, and Beimel they would have to offer arbitration--and there is a relatively high risk that these players would accept.

Is the risk worth it? For someone like Betancourt, who probably won't get a commensurate offer on the open market, especially with his type A status, the proposition is too chancy. For Marquis, who is likely to draw strong interest in a weak starting pitching market from his hometown Mets, the risk might be low enough to offer him arbitration. My personal view is that Colorado should offer arbitration to Beimel because his arbitration cost would be around his market cost--relatively low. Marquis could command $10-12 million in arbitration, so the Rockies need to be certain that he would decline before they offer it to him.

Next week the picture for the Betancourt situation should be a little clearer as the option decision will be made and the 40 man roster will be solidified. Until then, don't touch that stove. It's hot.

Poll

Should the Rockies exercise their $5.4 million club option on Rafael Betancourt?

Yes. He was nails last season and provides a solid bridge to Huston Street.

111 votes

No, the Rockies should try to sign him at a lower price over a multi-year deal.

131 votes

No, Betancourt is old and signing him would tie up too much salary to the bullpen.

40 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

The State of the Colorado Rockies (Pre-Free Agency)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:38:04 -0000

While Major League Baseball has yet to crown a champion, the Rockies' season is (unfortunately) over and it is time to look forward towards the swiftly oncoming offseason. The Rockies have quite a to-do list this year.

The clock for Colorado and the rest of MLB starts ticking when the Fall (Winter?) Classic concludes, as teams have 15 days to exclusively negotiate with their prospective free agents. After that time (let's say November 20th), free agents are, well, free to go where their services are most sought after. The original team has until December 12th to tender 2010 contracts to their free agents.

For those players (like Garrett Atkins) who have less than six years of MLB service time, their teams control their rights, but must tender the player a contract offer or salary arbitration, by December 1st--with the player needing to make a decision by the 7th. As a result, at baseball's Winter Meetings from December 7-10, teams will have some idea as to where the market stands.

Finally, December 8th is a very important deadline, as it is the day in which MLB clubs must set their 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, which occurs on the 10th.

These dates and other offseason deadlines are explained in more detail here.

To learn a little bit more about some of the topics I just touched upon, please check out these previous sessions of Purple Row Academy, which I'll be updating over the offseason:

Trades and Contract Tenders

Rule 5 Draft

Now that you understand a little better the timeline that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are working with, I'll break down the Rockies' contract situations (and the decisions to be made therein) extensively after the jump.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Additional Minimum Obligation	Years After 2010

Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This chart shows that the Rockies, even if they do not re-sign Torrealba or Embree, have committed over $48 million to seven players on the 2010 roster. And these are only the players who the Rockies know how much they have to pay. Again, this is if the Rockies don't pick up any club options on these players.

Pre-Arbitration Players

For the players listed below, the Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). For the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. This is assuming that the Rockies let Embree and Torrealba walk and find internal replacements. The pre-arbitration players:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

This chart tells us that the Rockies will be paying a little over $3.3 million to eight players on the 25 man roster. This fact again emphasizes the importance of teams maximizing the value of young players.

The player whose omission sticks out on that list is Matt Murton. With his service time, he would seem to be eligible for Super Two Arbitration status, but due to the fact that he did not accrue at least 86 days of ML service time in 2009 he is rendered ineligible for salary arbitration. At least, I think so. Of course, unless the Rockies unload either Hawpe or Ryan Spilborghs, Murton won't be on the roster--and since this projection is based upon roster stability, Murton is not included on this projection.

Projecting these 15 slots was easy--it's the potential arbitration cases that can get tricky.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

In addition to the 15 players mentioned in the tables above, plus Matt Murton (who would be the victim of a numbers game if the status quo is kept), the Rockies have 10 potential salary arbitration cases on their hands with players that have between three and six years of ML service time (Tracy Ringolsby lists them here). Calculating potential salaries for these players is quite tricky. As I noted when I wrote about ML service time, the average salary raise in 2009 was 172% when multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players (like Ryan Howard's 3 year, $54 million deal) are included.

The Rockies in 2008 gave raises of over 300% to Clint Barmes and Jorge De La Rosa plus hefty salary increases to Taylor Buchholz, Huston Street, Garrett Atkins, and Jason Grilli--raises which increased payroll by $7,649,000 over the six players' 2008 salaries. This year, the Rockies' situation will be much more expensive, with several of their arb-eligible players performing at a high level in 2009.

When projecting arbitration raises for the Rockies I did so based on some past history--giving higher % raises to players with a lower starting salary and to those who had performed in a starting role.

Here's which I came up with, provided the Rockies tendered a 2010 contract offer to each of their arbitration eligibles:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Garrett Atkins	5.072	$5,640,000	-20%
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$1,200,000	50%
Randy Flores	5.061	$900,000	50%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90%

Total		$32,077,560	134%

This chart tells us that based on career performance and function (weighted more heavily toward 2009), the Rockies will pay these 10 players over $32 million--about $13.7 million more than they were paid in 2009. This chart is even assuming that Garrett Atkins will be tendered and will accept a minimum 80% of his previous year's salary (unlikely). Even with Atkins, the projected average arbitration salary increases is only 134%, well below 2009's MLB average of 172%--meaning that my estimated raises, shocking in their size as they may seem, may even be on the low side.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 24 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore another player's salary would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $3,324,840

Arbitration Contracts: $32,077,560

Total ODP: $83,460,400

In other words, the Rockies' ODP will need to grow by $8,259,400, or 10.98%, in order to maintain the status quo (a cost certainty price floor, if you will).

What This All Means

It's pretty obvious to me that the status quo won't happen, as Atkins will likely be non-tendered and one of the outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, or Murton) will be shopped around and dealt. What the above calculation shows, however, is that the Rockies will have very little payroll flexibility to add pieces for 2010--especially if the Rockies need to replace Atkins and grab another bullpen piece.

The most pressing issue given this limitation is the $5.4 million team option on set-up man Rafael Betancourt--in my opinion the team simply can't afford to pay it, unless they are planning on moving Hawpe and his $7.5 million contract. Also, the Rockies have a few free agents they'd like to re-sign, including Joe Beimel (who will probably cost around $2 million), Jason Giambi ($1.5 million), and Torrealba (at most $2 million). Again, Colorado would need to move Hawpe to make this possible.

Remember though that if the Rockies do move Hawpe, they'll receive trade assets in return--and especially if those players are major leaguers they must also be well-compensated.

If I Were In Charge...

Given the financial limitations facing the Rockies and in light of the fact that they were very successful in 2009, a fine line must be walked between cost consciousness and competitiveness. Because the Rockies can not add very many, if any, significant pieces given their current projected payroll, they need to make a few moves. Here's what I would do this offseason to shape the 2010 Rockies:

1. Non-Tender Garrett Atkins. For the love of God, please--Atkins doubles as expensive and bad.

2. Pick only one or two out-going free agents to re-sign. There isn't any room for more than that. The Rockies' top priority should be getting back Betancourt or Beimel if they can get them back for a reasonable price (in this case, under $2.5 million). Relief pitching is too fungible and the market too inefficient to pay relievers big bucks. Likely this person will be Beimel. If the Rockies can get Torrealba back for about $1.5-2 million, they should do it--but they should let him walk if he wants much more than that. An alternative to Torrealba would be to keep Giambi around if he could be had for $1.5 million to come off the bench. I would keep one or the other (or neither), there isn't money for both.

Torrealba would replace Phillips on the roster or Giambi would replace the recently outrighted Omar Quintanilla.

3. Look hard for a taker for Brad Hawpe. In order for the Rockies to shore up their rotation and find a suitable sub for Atkins, they will need to move someone from their glut of outfielders to maintain payroll flexibility. Hawpe may very well be the Rockies' best hitting outfielder and an excellent leader in the clubhouse, but his horrific defense, much higher salary, and All-Star status make Hawpe an ideal trade piece--a player that has much more marginal value to prospective trading partners than he does to his own team. Even after his cold second half, Hawpe does have value around the league (especially as a DH), enough to garner the package I've outlined below.

A possible trade package for Hawpe would be a young back-end rotation starter and either a corner infield reserve or a B prospect or two. The Rockies need starting pitching depth for the simple reason that they were fortunate with pitcher health last year (basically the same five starters all year)--something that will likely not continue next year. They do have a bevy of good pitching prospects, but they will be relying on Francis or Morales to nail down the fifth slot in the rotation, so some insurance is probably needed. If the Rockies can get a major league-ready arm plus a prospect for Hawpe they should pull the trigger.

If no such trade package were to surface, either Spilborghs or Murton would need to be moved--and my decision would be Spilborghs due to the fact that he's older, will command a higher salary, and has Scott Boras as an agent.

4. Gauge the market for Manuel Corpas. If someone will offer value, I'd move him. But value in this situation would be relatively high--I'd hate to sell low on Corpas.

5. Bring in the usual suspects on minor league deals as pitching depth. There are plenty of guys that fit this mold (Fogg, Herges, Rincon, etc.). This is cheap depth to be used in case of dire emergencies only.

The resulting ODP from these moves (assuming Hawpe is moved) would be about $76.7 million, a slight payroll increase from 2009.

2004 NL West Draft Review

Russ Oates — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:00:52 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Seth Smith, one of several good draft selections by the Rockies in 2004.

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As Tracy Ringolsby reported recently, Baseball America rated the Rockies' 2009 draft the best in baseball. With Tyler Matzek, Tim Wheeler, Rex Brothers, Chris Balcom-Miller, and Nolan Arendao, it's hard to argue otherwise. Still, we can't assess fully the impact of a draft class for at least another few years. The last time the Rockies had a draft class that could even be considered a good one was back in 2004.

That year our fellow NL West team, the San Diego Padres, controlled the first pick . . . and chose Matt Bush, a high school SS. Less than a month after being the first pick, Bush was involved in some sort of incident at a night club, which led to a temporary suspension. And then he failed as a hitter through the 2006 season. In 2007, he returned to the mound for the first time since high school. But Tommy John surgery claimed him that season. Moving to 2009, Bush allegedly took part in a drunken assault with high schoolers, leading the Padres to let him go. The Blue Jays acquired him, but then released him for violating the club's zero-tolerance policy right before the season began. At the end of June, he was hogtied and thrown into a police car after he resisted arrest on suspicion of drunken driving and vandalism (you can find the find out on there). He received community service and several fines. Dug his own hole, and the Padres received nothing after giving him over $3M as a signing bonus.

First round draft picks who are noteworthy because they have had major league success are: Justin Verlander (Tigers, 2nd), Jeff Niemann (Devil Rays, 4th), Jered Weaver (Angels, 12th), Billy Butler (Royals, 14th), Stephen Drew (D'Backs, 15th), Phil Hughes (Yankees, 23rd), J.P. Howell, (Royals, 31), and Huston Street (A's, 40th).

After the jump, we'll examine how the NL West compares internally.

NOTE: I look at each team based on draft order, which goes San Diego, Colorado, Arizona, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.

San Diego Padres

Round 1: Matt Bush, SS - already discussed

Round 3: William Killian, C - Killian spent two seasons in the Padres' system before going to Texas with Adam Eaton for Adrian Gonzalez during the 05-06 offseason. Killian bounced around after 2006, spending 2007 in the minors for both Texas and Chicago (AL). He spent 2009 in the Orioles' farm system.

Round 4: Daryl Jones, OF - Not to be confused with the Daryl Jones drafted by the Cardinals in 2005, this Daryl never made it past the Midwest League, playing the level twice before heading to Indy ball in 2008.

Round 5: Sean Kazmar, SS - Kazmar reached the majors in 2008 for 19 games. He never hit higher than .267 over a full season and he peaked at 13 homers in 2006.He spent all of 2009 in Triple A.

Later Rounds: 12th round RHP Michael Ekstrom has thrown in 20 games for the Padres over the last two seasons. A starter for most of his career, Ekstrom has since taken to the pen. As a 42nd round DFE, 1B/OF Kyle Blanks is the big success of this draft class, ranking as the Padres #1 prospect (BA ranking) in 2009. He spent 54 games in the majors this season before coming down with a tear of his plantar fascia on his right foot. If the Padres trade Adrian Gonzalez, Blanks has a home there.

Colorado Rockies

Round 1: Chris Nelson, SS - Nelson debuted to great success at Casper (.347/.432/.510), but didn't advance quickly. He played 79 games for Asheville in 2005 as result of a strained hamstring. He returned to Asheville in 2006 and played well enough to move up to Modesto in 2007. He had his finest season there: .289/.358/.503, 19 HR, 99 RBI, 27 SB. He struggled with Tulsa in 2008 before breaking the hamate bone in his left hand. Returning to Tulsa in 2009, hit .280/.335/.477 over 29 games before tearing a ligament in his right wrist. There's still some hope he can reach the majors, but all those injuries. . . .

Round 2: Seth Smith, OF - Smitty, Mr. Late Night, our hero. What more is there to say?

Round 3: Steven Register, RHP - Reached the majors with the Rockies in 2008, but didn't provide much relief. Pitched in a game for the Pirates in 2009.

Round 4: Chris Iannetta, C - We know all about this guy and the debate he engenders.

Round 5: Matt Macri, INF: Played well in 18 games for the Twins in 2008, bu played all of 2009 in the minors with poor results. He will best be remembered by Rockies fans as the chip that acquired Ramon Ortiz in 2007.

Later Rounds: The Rockies picked up Dexter Fowler in the 14th round after teams believed he had a strong commitment to college. After the Rockies freed up some cash in the Larry Walker trade, Dex signed with the club. The Rockies drafted a number of players who say the majors with the team or elsewhere in the majors with Joe Koshansky (6th), Jim Miller (8th), David Patton (12th), and Josh Newman (19th). The Rockies also drafted Todd Frazier in the 37th round, a future supplemental first round draft pick by the Reds in 2007. Continuing their tradition of drafting QBs, the Rockies selected Louisville's starting QB over the next few years, Brian Brohm.

UPDATE: I received an e-mail earlier today informing that Matt Daley signed as an undrafted free agent in 2004, a move that escaped me when I wrote this. Though not actually drafted by the Rockies, undrafted free agents are as much a part of the draft as the the draft is to the draft. The Rockies really did know how to unearth talent.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Round 1: Stephen Drew, SS - He's no Troy Tulowitzki.

Round 2: Jon Zeringue, OF - Played in the system for three-plus years, moved to Indy ball, and then to the A's. He may have moved to the mound in 2009 for an Indy league team.

Round 3: Garrett Mock, RHP: Traded to the Nationals in 2006 for Livan Hernandez. Oy. 3-10 with a 5.62 ERA in 2009 for the Natinals.

Round 4: Ross Ohlendorf, RHP - This Ivy Leaguer (Princeton) went to the Yankees in 2007 for Randy Johnson. Pitched in 25 games for the Yanks in 2008, but went to the Pirates in a trade that for Xavier Nady.

Round 5: Cesar Nicolas, 1B - Nicolas has spent the last two seasons at Double A Mobile.

Later Rounds: The D'Backs drafted some guy by the name of Mark Reynolds in the 16th round. 10th round RHP Steven Jackson went to NY along with Ohlendorf as part of the Johnson deal.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Round 1: Scott Elbert, LHP - Elbert battled back from 2007 shoulder surgery to make the majors in 2008 and 2009. He bounced back and forth between the minors and the Dodgers this season and capped the season with an appearance in the NLCS.

Round 1: Blake DeWitt, 2B - De Witt performed admirably in 2008 for the Dodgers, hitting .264/.344/.383 over 117 games. He struggled while in the majors for 31 games.

Round 1s: Justin Orenduff, RHP: Reached Triple A as a starter, but the Dodgers sent him to High A this season as a reliever.

Round 2: Blake Johnson, RHP - Sent with Odalis Perez and other to the Royals for Elmer Dessens in 2006. Yeah, Elmer Dessens. Has played Double A the last two seasons.

Round 3: Cory Dunlap, 1B - Had a poor 2007 season at Double A and went on the suspended list the next year.

Round 4: Luis Guerra, RHP - Did not make it as a starter, moved to the 'pen in 2008. Made it to Double A in 2009.

Round 5: Anthony Raglani, OF - As the last link points out, Raglani retired before the start of the 2008 season.

Later Rounds: Drafted future #1 overall pick David Price in the 17th round. Also drafted future Tiger Jeff Larish. Cory Wade went in the 10th round to the Dodgers. He pitched well for the Dodgers in 2008, but spent most of 2009 on the DL with a strained shoulder.

San Francisco Giants

Round 2: Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF - Martinez-Esteve's career has stalled at AA, spending 2006, 2008, and 2009 there. He's mastered the league the last two years but needs to move up.

Round 3: John Bowker, OF - Bowker complied most of his time in the majors in 2008, spending only 31 games with the club in 2009. Absolutely dominated Triple A this season.

Round 4: Clay Timpner, OF - Has spent a grand total of two games in the majors with the Giants.

Round 5: Garrett Broshius, RHP - Move along.

Later rounds: 12th round pick Kevin Frandsen has appeared in the majors with the Giants each of the last four seasons, but 2007 was the only time he received an extensive look. The Giants found real success in the 27th round by selecting Jonathan Sanchez who threw a no-hitter this past season. Despite a poor W-L record, Sanchez has a bright future.

Summary: The Padres and Giants blew it early in the draft, but found late-round successes in Blanks and Sanchez. The Dodgers had a so-so draft. Elbert and DeWitt have reached the majors, but it's a question of whether they'll be able to stay there. Cory Wade was overused in 2008 and disappeared for the most part this season. The D'Backs saw three of their top five picks make the majors, but only Drew made it with the team. The other two wade in the dank pools that are Pittsburgh and Washington. The Rockies saw four of their top five draft choices make the majors, three with them. Add in Dexter Fowler, that draft gets all the better. And with four other later-round selections making the majors (two with the Rockies), the club sure knew how to find eventual major league talent in 2004.

Rockies Set Rotation, Roster for NLDS and Lineup for Game 1

Jabberwocky — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 20:22:35 -0000

More photos » by Matt Rourke - AP

Ubaldo Jimenez will lead the Rockies' playoff rotation.

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According to Sports Illustrated, Jorge De La Rosa will not be available for the NLDS. As such, here's the Rockies' NLDS rotation:

Ubaldo Jimenez,
Aaron Cook
Jason Hammel

It appears that Jason Marquis will be used out of the bullpen during the first three games, meaning that the Rockies seem to be planning to have Jimenez go in game 4 on short rest and Cook in game 5 on regular rest. The possibility still remains that Marquis could start game 4, though no decision has been made on that. Likely if the Rockies are up 2-1 Marquis would start and if they are down 2-1 Jimenez would go.

Jim Tracy on Marquis:

"I think the first two-thirds of the season were exceptional," Tracy said. "Right now he's not throwing the ball quite in the same manner. And to ignore a guy that has thrown the ball as well as Jason Hammel has thrown it since the All-Star break, I really feel is doing ourselves a disservice."

According to the Denver Post, here's the playoff bullpen:

Jason Marquis
Jose Contreras
Matt Belisle
Joe Beimel
Franklin Morales
Matt Daley
Rafael Betancourt
Huston Street

Belisle basically replaced De La Rosa on the roster. The Rockies have two lefties in the pen to help with the Phillies' Ryan Howard in particular.

From the same link, here's the Game 1 Lineup and bench:

Game 1 Lineup:
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
1B Todd Helton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Garrett Atkins
C Yorvit Torrealba
RF Brad Hawpe
2B Clint Barmes
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

This is pretty much what I figured the lineup would be for Game 1, with Atkins and Torrealba starting. I'm pleasantly surprised to see that CarGo will make the start in lieu of Ryan Spilborghs, though I believe that the Rockies are better suited with Gonzalez in the leadoff position rather than in the two hole.

Bench:

1B/DH Jason Giambi
C Chris Iannetta
LF Seth Smith
OF Ryan Spilborghs
3B Ian Stewart
2B/OF Eric Young Jr.

EY2 has taken Quintanilla's bench spot while Giambi slides in as the extra position player.

Hat tip to Rock Oax for his FanShot.

UPDATE: Tracy Ringolsby adds his thoughts on the roster and mentions that Jose Contreras is also a viable option for the starter of Game 4.

The Batting Lineups the Rockies SHOULD Be Using

Jabberwocky — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:08:43 -0000

More photos » by Will Powers - AP

Jim Tracy and Charlie Manuel have a number of tough lineup decisions for the NLDS.

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People have wildly differing viewpoints on batting lineups, especially when going into the postseason. Should the manager stick with who got him there? Go with the hot hand? Play the platoon splits? Maximize offense while eschewing defense or vice versa? Veteraniness/playoff experience/clutchness/chemistry?

Here are the best lineups for the Rockies in the upcoming series, based on a few different metrics that will satisfy several schools of line-up construction thought:

Wins Above Replacement (WAR): Due to the fact that WAR is a counting value stat, players with more PAs have a greater chance of ending up here. Batting order placement is partially determined by their Batting Runs Above Average. For comparison's sake I've ranked the both the Rockies' and Phillies' lineups. All data from FanGraphs.

Rockies

Gonzalez CF (2.3 WAR, 9.4 BRAA, .378 wOBA)
Smith LF (2.7, 13.1, .383)
Helton 1B (3.3, 26.7, .392)
Tulowitzki SS (5.4, 26.6, .393)
Hawpe RF (1.4, 20.6, .384)
Iannetta C (2.0, 1.0, .346)
Stewart 3B (1.2, -2.1, .337)
Barmes 2B (1.7, -15.3, .312)

Phillies

Victorino CF (3.2 WAR, 12.6 BRAA, .354)
Werth RF (4.5, 27.8, .382)
Utley 2B (7.6, 39.6, .402)
Howard 1B (5.0, 35.7, .393)
Ibanez LF (4.1, 21.9, .379)
Ruiz C (2.2, 1.5, .337)
Rollins SS (2.6, -9.9, .316)
Feliz 3B (1.3, -15.4, .302)

Join me after the jump to figure out what this means, look at which Rockies have the best LHP splits, and which Rockies come into the postseason on a hot streak...

Takeaways:

1. The Phillies have a healthy lead in hitting WAR (30.5 to 20) and BRAA (113.8 to 80). That lineup is a tough one.

2. However, beyond Chase Utley, the Rockies match up well with the Phillies in the batter's box.

Looking at this from a batting order standpoint, Gonzalez equals or trumps Victorino (especially considering Carlos' 377 fewer PAs). Werth beats Smith (again, if Smith had more playing time he'd probably have a higher WAR/BRAA and likely a lower wOBA), though not by as much as many would think. Utley is much better than Helton in the three hole, while Tulo matches up pretty evenly with Howard as does Hawpe with Ibanez (they're almost identical hitting-wise, actually). Iannetta and Ruiz are a push, Stewart beats Rollins, and Barmes is equal to if not better than Feliz.

3. The Rockies lineup probably won't happen, especially against left-handed pitchers (which we just happen to be facing) given the fact that the most talented (and best performing) players haven't always played this year. Case in point, Ryan Spilborghs has more PAs than Seth Smith.

Tracy won't play Smith vs. lefties and often will take out either CarGo or Hawpe. He will often play Garrett Atkins for Stewart and Yorvit Torrealba for Iannetta. Some of these decisions will pay off occasionally, but often they do not. Playing inferior players leads to inferior results.

4. The Phillies lineup won't appear like that either (though they will use basically the same players), as Manuel will probably stick Rollins near the top of the order, but it could happen.

The Phillies will likely keep the same-ish lineup throughout the series regardless of pitcher handedness.

The Best Rockies Line-up Against Left-handed Pitching

For this, I used the vs. LHP splits found on Baseball Reference for Rockies that had more than 60 PAs (15 games' worth of action) against lefties. Again, these are performance-based results from this year. Here's the best batting lineup using that data:

Gonzalez RF (.276 BA / .343 OBP / .466 SLG)
Fowler CF (.321 / .377 / .482)
Iannetta C (.296 / .406 / .580)
Tulowitzki SS (.269 / .382 / .519)
Smith LF (.259 / .368 / .500)
Helton 1B (.311 / .369 / .372)
Atkins 3B (.268 / .363 / .428)
Barmes 2B (.245 / .314 / .496)

Takeaways:

1. Chris Iannetta, if nothing else, should be playing against southpaws. He's been the best hitter on the team against lefties (154 OPS+!!!) this year.

2. Smith, Fowler, and Gonzalez provide the Rockies' best LHP-hitting and defensive outfield (UZR be damned). How many times has this trio started a game (any game, not just against a lefty)? Zero.

3. Atkins playing in this series wouldn't be the worst thing ever, but Ian Stewart's defense still probably makes him more valuable.

4. Helton has the least power in that line-up against lefties. He's basically a slow singles/OBP hitter at this point.

5. The team OPS against lefties this year is .765--not too shabby. All of the projected line-up except for Helton betters that number.

What is the "Hottest Rockies Lineup?

Those Rockies, they're so hot right now! Here is the best line-up from September on (by wOBA, which does an excellent job of combining OBP and SLG) of Rockies that had at least 40 PAs (ten games' worth of action) during the stretch run:

Gonzalez CF (.374 wOBA)
Smith LF (.367)
Helton 1B (.382)
Tulowitzki SS (.454)
Hawpe RF (.374)
Stewart 3B (.345)
Torrealba C (.331)
Young Jr. 2B (.293)

Takeaways:

1. Tulowitzki has been HOT down the stretch. As if you didn't already know that.

2. Don't let that .208 September batting average fool you. Hawpe has regained his stroke further down in the order with a nice power streak at the end of the year.

3. Any way you slice it, the Rockies have an offensive sinkhole at second base, with Barmes' .283 wOBA not making the cut.

4. Neither Dexter Fowler (.272) nor Ryan Spilborghs (.224) have performed well enough down the stretch to start. That is, if you use the "hotness" metric for setting your starting lineup.

5. Jason Giambi (.445 wOBA in 31 PAs) is a true ace in the hole off the bench.

6. Torrealba might be dialed in right now (.310 average, 14 RBIs September on), but it's mostly a mirage.

Of his 27 hits, only 7 have gone for extra bases. His K/BB ratio (19-7) is greater than Stewart's (32-13) and his BABIP is unsustainable (.397). Torrealba will start because of his "hotness" and his "clutchiness" and his "veteraniness", but Torrealba is the wrong choice for this series in particular.

Why? Well for one thing this year he has a line of .220 / .288 / .322 against lefties. Another is that he has thrown out only 8 of 49 runners (14%), which will be bad against a Philadelphia team that has swiped 119 bags this year.

Meanwhile, Chris Iannetta didn't get enough PAs to qualify (he had 27, and that's with two starts due to Torrealba's injury), but he did do quite a bit with them, putting up a .540 wOBA in September. He's been the superior player over the course of the season and he's the superior player right now.

Now my method of setting the line-up is a hybrid that uses the above metrics. This is who I want to start on Wednesday for Colorado against the Phillies:

Gonzalez RF
Fowler CF
Helton 1B
Tulowitzki SS
Smith LF
Iannetta C
Atkins 3B
Barmes 2B

What, start Garrett Atkins? I've been taking crazy pills and I believe after looking at the numbers that this is one of the few matchups where Atkins would be a better play over Stewart. I'm also weighting Fowler's season-long brilliance against lefties higher than Brad Hawpe's recent hot performance.