SB Nation - Taylor Buchholz

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

Saturday Rockpile: The stove is heating up as the Rockies begin to show interest in Free Agents

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:48:30 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Could the O-Dog be in the Rockies' plans for 2010?

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Rockies show interest in Hudson, hope Betancourt accepts arbitration - Fox Sports on MSN
Although the Rox would net two draft picks and avoid paying $6 million for one year of an aging reliever, they still hope that Rafael Betancourt accepts their arbitration offer. His situation on the market may force him to do just that.

Tracy Ringolsby also reports that the Rockies have began to show interest in free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. I recall this being something that a lot of fans wished the Rockies paid attention to last offseason. However, to me it sounds like a good move this year as well, rather than it being a year too late. Hudson, 32, just finished a nice season for the Dodgers and could help the Rockies alleviate their need for a right-handed bench bat by simply inserting O-Dog into the starting lineup and using Clint Barmes in the bench/super-utility role. On top of all of that, Hudson wasn't offered arbitration by LA, so signing him will not require draft compensation. This all could be one big moot point, though, as Dan O'Dowd has denied seriously pursuing Hudson.

Rox could shift to Hawkins if Betancourt departs, while keeping an eye on Duchsherer and DeRosa - The Denver Post
In the event that Raffy B does not accept arbitration and decides to bolt for another club, Troy E. Renck says the Rockies have been open about the fact that they would love to bring back LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins has had a good past few years pitching out of the bullpen for the Astros and Rockies and still throws very hard and has good stuff (although his walk totals are still a bit high), especially for his age. It sounds like the Rockies will definitely be bringing one of these guys back, though, as it could be as late as the middle of 2010 when we'll see Taylor Buchholz return.

Meanwhile, Justin Duchscherer has become a top target for the Rox as well. If he can get past his physical and mental health issues, Duchscherer has proven to be a solid big league starter and would be a good fit to the back of anybody's rotation. Also, Renck mentions that the Rockies have expressed interest in Mark DeRosa, who hits lefties well and could be another option to fill the right-handed void that the Rockies have amongst position players.

The State of the Rockies: Post GM Meetings Update

Jabberwocky — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:42:43 -0000

In what will be a semi-weekly occurrence from now until January on Purple Row Academy, I'm going to update my post on the State of the Rockies. In other words, I will update my loyal readers (all three of you)--as well as anyone ~~stupid~~ intrepid enough to follow me after the jump as to the roster framework the Rockies are looking at as some big offseason deadlines approach.

This week, I'll be looking at what has happened thus far for the Rockies and what that means going forward. Also discussed will be the Rockies' impending decision on Rafael Betancourt's club option and how the Rockies are affected by the Elias Free Agent classifications.

By next week, we should have a better idea of what the Rockies are doing as the beginning of free agency and the deadline to set 40 man rosters approaches (November 20th).

Jump with me, brave souls, to roster-building nirvana...

Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man, they will be paid the prorated minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This list of players the Rockies definitely owe money to next year has become more certain, especially since Colorado declined the options of Embree and Torrealba as I predicted. Embree won't be back, but as RG wrote this morning, the door is open for Torrealba to return.

Pre-Arbitration Players

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$2,897,390

The main difference on this pre-arb chart is that I've taken out Paul Phillips, who was outrighted on Monday to clear up 40 man roster spots and looks like he'll become a free agent. That leaves a hole in the projected roster at backup catcher, perhaps to be filled by Torrealba, a cheaper in-house option such as Mike McKenry, or even a free agent catcher.

Even with the extra spot in the roster open, I'm not using Matt Murton to fill it because he would be the sixth outfielder. One of Murton, Ryan Spilborghs, and Hawpe will likely be gone--and more than one leaving is possible.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Since my previous post two weeks ago, the Rockies have avoided salary arbitration with two of their prospective cases, relievers Randy Flores and Matt Belisle. The Rockies were able to secure the services of these two relievers for less than I had predicted--Flores for $650,000 and Belisle for $850000, raises of 6.25 and 8.33% respectively. Both contracts have incentives based on number of appearances, neither of which I predict will be triggered.

With Belisle and Flores in the fold, the Rockies stil have eight potential arbitration cases to negotiate--including that of Garrett Atkins, who is almost certain to be non-tendered. The Rockies may (should) do this before the November 20th deadline for setting the 40 man roster in order to protect another prospect from the Rule 5 draft. Let's face it: Atkins won't engender much interest from teams at his current price point (minimum of $5.64 million). For that reason I'm removing him from the below chart. Bold numbers represent concrete salaries, not just predictions

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	6.25%
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	8.33%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$25,837,560	141.06%

As you can see, this is considerably less than two weeks ago, due mostly to Atkins but also because Belisle and Flores were signed more cheaply than I had anticipated. Another effect of Atkins being removed is that the Rockies' average player salary increase from arbitration is closer to reflecting the league average of 172%.

Of the seven arbitration cases that remain, I could really see De La Rosa and maybe Spilborghs getting to actual salary arbitration. De La Rosa in particular could garner a larger salary than I predict here (more in the $6.5 million range). Meanwhile, Barmes and Street seem more likley to take the multi-year contract route and might have lower salaries this year than I'd projected.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control (besides Atkins, that is) and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 22 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore the salary of three players would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $2,897,390

Arbitration Contracts: $25,837,560

Total ODP: $76,792,950

In other words, a roster that still has three spots open is about $1.6 million over last year's ODP.

The Betancourt Variable

The variables as far as the Rockies are concerned from now until November 20th are their free agents. The most pressing and important of these players to the front office is set-up man Rafael Betancourt, whose $5.4 million club option expires tomorrow.

Betancourt has reportedly already turned down a multi-year offer from the Rockies, so it is important for Dan O'Dowd to decide whether he wants the 35 year old Betancourt to be the set-up man next year or not. If the option is declined, Betancourt may still be retained, but the Rockies will have to bid against other teams for his services.

I've made my opinion on the issue of bullpen spending pretty clear--I believe that bullpen performance is highly variable, very fungible, and an inefficient use of salary dollars. Obviously many people disagree with me on this, but I'd prefer the Rockies to bring back Jose Contreras as a combo set-up man rotation insurance.

As Thomas Harding notes, the Rockies are interested in re-signing Contreras and Joe Beimel, who combined will probably make about the same as Betancourt's club option.

Free Agent Classification

Another reason for the Rockies to perhaps let Betancourt go would be his status as a Type A free agent. I wrote about free agency compensation several months ago, but the gist is that the top 20% of players in their positional groups (1B/DH/OF, 2B/SS/3B, C, SP, RP) as calculated by Elias are classified as Type A free agents. The formula for these calculations is complicated, convoluted, and confidential, rarely making a list that makes much sense.

In return for losing one of these players in free agency, a club receives the signing club's first round pick in the Rule 4 draft as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. As I discussed in my analysis of the Betancourt trade back in July, the draft picks from a type A free agent are typically worth $5 million to a team. In fact, in that article I recommended that the Rockies decline Betancourt's option and retain the draft picks.

Unfortunately, the Rockies would have to offer Betancourt arbitration in order to receive the draft picks in return--and in this lackluster market, the risk is high that Betancourt will accept and get even more than the $5.4 million club option. The same logic applies to Colorado's other free agents. If the Rockies want to take advantage of the Type B status (sandwich pick as compensation) of Jason Marquis, Torrealba, and Beimel they would have to offer arbitration--and there is a relatively high risk that these players would accept.

Is the risk worth it? For someone like Betancourt, who probably won't get a commensurate offer on the open market, especially with his type A status, the proposition is too chancy. For Marquis, who is likely to draw strong interest in a weak starting pitching market from his hometown Mets, the risk might be low enough to offer him arbitration. My personal view is that Colorado should offer arbitration to Beimel because his arbitration cost would be around his market cost--relatively low. Marquis could command $10-12 million in arbitration, so the Rockies need to be certain that he would decline before they offer it to him.

Next week the picture for the Betancourt situation should be a little clearer as the option decision will be made and the 40 man roster will be solidified. Until then, don't touch that stove. It's hot.

Poll

Should the Rockies exercise their $5.4 million club option on Rafael Betancourt?

Yes. He was nails last season and provides a solid bridge to Huston Street.

111 votes

No, the Rockies should try to sign him at a lower price over a multi-year deal.

131 votes

No, Betancourt is old and signing him would tie up too much salary to the bullpen.

40 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

The State of the Colorado Rockies (Pre-Free Agency)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:38:04 -0000

While Major League Baseball has yet to crown a champion, the Rockies' season is (unfortunately) over and it is time to look forward towards the swiftly oncoming offseason. The Rockies have quite a to-do list this year.

The clock for Colorado and the rest of MLB starts ticking when the Fall (Winter?) Classic concludes, as teams have 15 days to exclusively negotiate with their prospective free agents. After that time (let's say November 20th), free agents are, well, free to go where their services are most sought after. The original team has until December 12th to tender 2010 contracts to their free agents.

For those players (like Garrett Atkins) who have less than six years of MLB service time, their teams control their rights, but must tender the player a contract offer or salary arbitration, by December 1st--with the player needing to make a decision by the 7th. As a result, at baseball's Winter Meetings from December 7-10, teams will have some idea as to where the market stands.

Finally, December 8th is a very important deadline, as it is the day in which MLB clubs must set their 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, which occurs on the 10th.

These dates and other offseason deadlines are explained in more detail here.

To learn a little bit more about some of the topics I just touched upon, please check out these previous sessions of Purple Row Academy, which I'll be updating over the offseason:

Trades and Contract Tenders

Rule 5 Draft

Now that you understand a little better the timeline that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are working with, I'll break down the Rockies' contract situations (and the decisions to be made therein) extensively after the jump.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Additional Minimum Obligation	Years After 2010

Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This chart shows that the Rockies, even if they do not re-sign Torrealba or Embree, have committed over $48 million to seven players on the 2010 roster. And these are only the players who the Rockies know how much they have to pay. Again, this is if the Rockies don't pick up any club options on these players.

Pre-Arbitration Players

For the players listed below, the Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). For the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. This is assuming that the Rockies let Embree and Torrealba walk and find internal replacements. The pre-arbitration players:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

This chart tells us that the Rockies will be paying a little over $3.3 million to eight players on the 25 man roster. This fact again emphasizes the importance of teams maximizing the value of young players.

The player whose omission sticks out on that list is Matt Murton. With his service time, he would seem to be eligible for Super Two Arbitration status, but due to the fact that he did not accrue at least 86 days of ML service time in 2009 he is rendered ineligible for salary arbitration. At least, I think so. Of course, unless the Rockies unload either Hawpe or Ryan Spilborghs, Murton won't be on the roster--and since this projection is based upon roster stability, Murton is not included on this projection.

Projecting these 15 slots was easy--it's the potential arbitration cases that can get tricky.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

In addition to the 15 players mentioned in the tables above, plus Matt Murton (who would be the victim of a numbers game if the status quo is kept), the Rockies have 10 potential salary arbitration cases on their hands with players that have between three and six years of ML service time (Tracy Ringolsby lists them here). Calculating potential salaries for these players is quite tricky. As I noted when I wrote about ML service time, the average salary raise in 2009 was 172% when multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players (like Ryan Howard's 3 year, $54 million deal) are included.

The Rockies in 2008 gave raises of over 300% to Clint Barmes and Jorge De La Rosa plus hefty salary increases to Taylor Buchholz, Huston Street, Garrett Atkins, and Jason Grilli--raises which increased payroll by $7,649,000 over the six players' 2008 salaries. This year, the Rockies' situation will be much more expensive, with several of their arb-eligible players performing at a high level in 2009.

When projecting arbitration raises for the Rockies I did so based on some past history--giving higher % raises to players with a lower starting salary and to those who had performed in a starting role.

Here's which I came up with, provided the Rockies tendered a 2010 contract offer to each of their arbitration eligibles:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Garrett Atkins	5.072	$5,640,000	-20%
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$1,200,000	50%
Randy Flores	5.061	$900,000	50%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90%

Total		$32,077,560	134%

This chart tells us that based on career performance and function (weighted more heavily toward 2009), the Rockies will pay these 10 players over $32 million--about $13.7 million more than they were paid in 2009. This chart is even assuming that Garrett Atkins will be tendered and will accept a minimum 80% of his previous year's salary (unlikely). Even with Atkins, the projected average arbitration salary increases is only 134%, well below 2009's MLB average of 172%--meaning that my estimated raises, shocking in their size as they may seem, may even be on the low side.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 24 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore another player's salary would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $3,324,840

Arbitration Contracts: $32,077,560

Total ODP: $83,460,400

In other words, the Rockies' ODP will need to grow by $8,259,400, or 10.98%, in order to maintain the status quo (a cost certainty price floor, if you will).

What This All Means

It's pretty obvious to me that the status quo won't happen, as Atkins will likely be non-tendered and one of the outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, or Murton) will be shopped around and dealt. What the above calculation shows, however, is that the Rockies will have very little payroll flexibility to add pieces for 2010--especially if the Rockies need to replace Atkins and grab another bullpen piece.

The most pressing issue given this limitation is the $5.4 million team option on set-up man Rafael Betancourt--in my opinion the team simply can't afford to pay it, unless they are planning on moving Hawpe and his $7.5 million contract. Also, the Rockies have a few free agents they'd like to re-sign, including Joe Beimel (who will probably cost around $2 million), Jason Giambi ($1.5 million), and Torrealba (at most $2 million). Again, Colorado would need to move Hawpe to make this possible.

Remember though that if the Rockies do move Hawpe, they'll receive trade assets in return--and especially if those players are major leaguers they must also be well-compensated.

If I Were In Charge...

Given the financial limitations facing the Rockies and in light of the fact that they were very successful in 2009, a fine line must be walked between cost consciousness and competitiveness. Because the Rockies can not add very many, if any, significant pieces given their current projected payroll, they need to make a few moves. Here's what I would do this offseason to shape the 2010 Rockies:

1. Non-Tender Garrett Atkins. For the love of God, please--Atkins doubles as expensive and bad.

2. Pick only one or two out-going free agents to re-sign. There isn't any room for more than that. The Rockies' top priority should be getting back Betancourt or Beimel if they can get them back for a reasonable price (in this case, under $2.5 million). Relief pitching is too fungible and the market too inefficient to pay relievers big bucks. Likely this person will be Beimel. If the Rockies can get Torrealba back for about $1.5-2 million, they should do it--but they should let him walk if he wants much more than that. An alternative to Torrealba would be to keep Giambi around if he could be had for $1.5 million to come off the bench. I would keep one or the other (or neither), there isn't money for both.

Torrealba would replace Phillips on the roster or Giambi would replace the recently outrighted Omar Quintanilla.

3. Look hard for a taker for Brad Hawpe. In order for the Rockies to shore up their rotation and find a suitable sub for Atkins, they will need to move someone from their glut of outfielders to maintain payroll flexibility. Hawpe may very well be the Rockies' best hitting outfielder and an excellent leader in the clubhouse, but his horrific defense, much higher salary, and All-Star status make Hawpe an ideal trade piece--a player that has much more marginal value to prospective trading partners than he does to his own team. Even after his cold second half, Hawpe does have value around the league (especially as a DH), enough to garner the package I've outlined below.

A possible trade package for Hawpe would be a young back-end rotation starter and either a corner infield reserve or a B prospect or two. The Rockies need starting pitching depth for the simple reason that they were fortunate with pitcher health last year (basically the same five starters all year)--something that will likely not continue next year. They do have a bevy of good pitching prospects, but they will be relying on Francis or Morales to nail down the fifth slot in the rotation, so some insurance is probably needed. If the Rockies can get a major league-ready arm plus a prospect for Hawpe they should pull the trigger.

If no such trade package were to surface, either Spilborghs or Murton would need to be moved--and my decision would be Spilborghs due to the fact that he's older, will command a higher salary, and has Scott Boras as an agent.

4. Gauge the market for Manuel Corpas. If someone will offer value, I'd move him. But value in this situation would be relatively high--I'd hate to sell low on Corpas.

5. Bring in the usual suspects on minor league deals as pitching depth. There are plenty of guys that fit this mold (Fogg, Herges, Rincon, etc.). This is cheap depth to be used in case of dire emergencies only.

The resulting ODP from these moves (assuming Hawpe is moved) would be about $76.7 million, a slight payroll increase from 2009.

Wednesday Rockpile: Rockies want Street long term

Rox Girl — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:54:47 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

Brian Fuentes says that there aren't enough celebratory man-hugs in Colorado.

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Among Troy Renck's notes, which include tidbits about Scott Boras as well as two of his clients with Rockies connections in Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez, plus an update on former Padres GM Kevin Towers, he mentions running into Brian Fuentes at the ALCS and in passing notes that the Rockies are looking into signing closer Huston Street to a multi-year deal. Street would be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season, so this would seem to be a departure from the club's usual arbitration buyout plus an option year, and a strong indicator that the club won't be going through a fire sale and rebuild any time soon. Of course, Holliday would be a good example that there are limits to the Monforts' generosity when it comes to contracts, and some players clearly are still out of the Rockies range and a few others still see themselves that way.

The news also seems to put Street in a core category as far as Dan O'Dowd's blueprint for the team over the next few seasons, and bullpen stability in general is also a noted departure from the first five years of his tenure as Rockies GM. Colorado does seem to be stockpiling some young bullpen arms. If Taylor Buchholz and Corpas can return strong from lost seasons and join Street, Matt Daley and Franklin Morales, the Rockies would seem to be well situated in relief over the next two seasons, particularly if Casey Weathers proves worthy of his hype.

Fuentes' statement to Renck is also somewhat enlightening,

"I came here to be in the playoffs. There is an expectation to win," Fuentes said. "They were just starting to develop that in Colorado when I left. It takes time, but obviously they are on the right track."

There's no longer a filter for Brian of having to be nice to the hand that writes the paychecks as far as the Rockies are concerned, so you can read a little more into his statement. The "just starting when I left..," phrase echoes similar statements I've read by other former Rockies that have left the team in the last three or four seasons, including Holliday, IIRC. In player code, this still puts Colorado cleanly in the second division. It's not a backwater dive where a veteran player feels they're at the end of their run, unwanted and trying to hang on to the last vestiges of their career, but for some reason, it's not yet a glittering beacon drawing them in for the chance of post season glory, either.

This means that despite having a better record and more post season appearances over the last five years than Atlanta or San Francisco, for instance, the Rockies still seem to be perceived among players in some respect as an inferior quality professional organization. Maybe I'm reading too much into Fuentes' words, as the Angels clearly are a step ahead of the Rockies right now, but the other teams he was most interested in signing with last season, the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals, are not when it comes to the results that matter. And since it's not just Fuentes that says it, but other players, I'm seeing it as a little more credible as a prevailing notion.

Obviously, I think this gets fixed by repetition of success. For 2010, there needs to be an expectation within the Rockies and among fans that they return to the post season. In fact, I think beating the Dodgers and winning the NL West are almost a necessity if the franchise really wants to elevate itself to that next tier.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Starting Pitchers)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Reed Saxon - AP

Where does Aaron Cook rank among Colorado's starting pitchers?

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at starting pitcher (through the 2008 season).

Obviously this is not a comprehensive list of all starting pitchers, but all the pitchers who have made a large contribution to the Rockies as starters were weighed, measured, and (often) found wanting. All in all, 54 players were ranked.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how pitching WAR is calculated. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

As I explained last week, starting pitchers are MUCH more valuable than relief pitchers when one is measuring WAR, by and large, due to the fact that WAR is a counting stat. Starting pitchers throw more innings and therefore have a greater influence on the game than do relievers, which stands to reason. This is also the reason why a pitcher like Franklin Morales, who could develop into a dominant closer, would be better off just remaining a starter.

Remember, relief pitchers are often failed starting pitchers who are given an easier task that their skillset will allow them to handle. Nearly every starting pitcher in baseball could be a useful relief pitcher. Very few relief pitchers could be useful starting pitchers. Replacement-level starters can be useful relievers; Juan Rincon is neither.

In any case, what both Smith and the fine folks at Fangraphs have shown is that star starting pitchers are just as valuable if not more so than star position players (and their contracts often bear this point out). Even though a dominant starting pitcher will only play once every five games, they have such a huge influence on whether their team wins the game that it mitigates the difference in playing time between the position player and, say, Troy Tulowitzki.

For instance, this season Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado's top pitcher) has been worth 5.5 WAR while Tulowitzki (the top position player) has accumulated 4.7 WAR. On a macro scale, the Rockies' pitching staff has actually contributed more WAR to the team (23.3, 2nd in MLB) than have the position players (16.5, 17th in MLB).

But I digress.

Like the denizens of the bullpen, a club's starting rotation is often in a constant state of flux due to injuries and inconsistent performance. The fact that the Rockies have only had five pitchers start more than two games this year is quite frankly amazing--the MLB average for this is closer to eight starters. I would say, though, that starting pitching performance is by and large more predictive overall than relief pitching performance due to the larger sample sizes involved in any one year's stats. A reliever can be unduly harmed or helped by luck when used less often--a trend that can see an unpleasant (or pleasant) change the subsequent year.

In order to qualify for consideration for this list the pitchers had to be one of the top five or six starters in innings pitched in a given year or throw over 50 innings for the team in a mostly starting role. It's a relatively deep group, with 14 starting pitchers having delivered at least one league average season (2 WAR) as a starter for the Rockies.

Starting Pitchers

Note: some of these pitchers were both starters and relievers for the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker. I'm ranking eight players to reflect the fact that the modern starting rotation generally uses eight pitchers in any given year.

Keep in mind when reading this list that WAR is a counting stat and therefore longevity counts for quite a bit, especially in this category. Also, Smith's numbers seem to be park-adjusted, therefore pre-humidor pitchers are given a nice park-factor boost to their less-than inspiring numbers (small consolation for having to pitch in an offensive haven.

1. Pedro Astacio

Career WAR: 9.9 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 9.3, 1999-2001 (1st)
Top Season: 5.3, 1999 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.33

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic as an 18 year old by the Dodgers, Pedro Astacio came over to the Rockies as a 27 year old before the waiver trade deadline in 1997 in exchange for Eric Young. Needless to say, trading EY was not originally a popular move with fans, but Astacio soon won over Colorado partisans with his sublime pitching even at Coors Field.

Astacio's third season with the Rockies, 1999, was the greatest pitching season in franchise history (though it will soon likely be surpassed by Jimenez this year) with 5.3 WAR. The 29 year-old righty threw 232 innings, managing a 17-11 record and 210 strikeouts (a club record to this day) despite a 5.04 ERA. Considering that Coors Field in 1999 had a Park Factor of 127 (this year = 107), it was pretty tough to succeed using conventional pitching stats. Astacio's 4.56 FIP and 8.15 K/9 (2.91 K/BB) hold up pretty well in such a poor pitching environment.

In any case, Astacio was traded by Colorado to Houston for homegrown pitcher Scott Elarton at the 2001 trading deadline as he approached free agency. Oddly enough, Astacio's performance never was even replacement level for the rest of his career even when pitching in better environs.

TOGB celebrated Astacio in an edition of Rockies Retro.

2a. Aaron Cook

Career WAR: 10.3 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 7.3, 2006-2008 (2nd)
Top Season: 3.4, 2008 (6th)
Average Rank: 3

You might not have realized it, but Aaron Cook has been pitching for the Rockies since 2002 (and he's signed through 2011 with a mutual option for 2012). His longevity and consistency (he's been over 1 WAR his last five seasons) are what puts the Rockies' 2nd round pick in 1997 near the top of this leaderboard and to the summit of the Rockies' career WAR leaderboard.

Cook's best year was his All-Star season last year, when in the awful beginning of the year he was the only thing keeping the season from becoming a complete disaster. His 16-9 record and 3.96 ERA in 211.1 IP got him on the All-Star team and his 3.76 FIP garnered him 3.4 WAR. His 4.37 career ERA is tops in Rockies history.

Going forward, Cook is a solid middle rotation starter that is locked into the Rockies for a couple of more years. He is already the longest-tenured Rockies starter, and could be one of the few players in today's game to pitch a long career with one club.

2b. Jason Jennings

Career WAR: 9.1 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 6.6, 2004-2006 (3rd)
Top Season: 4.2, 2006 (3rd)
Average Rank: 3

Talk about selling an asset high. Jason Jennings, the jewel of the Rockies' player development system, Rookie of the Year in 2002, coming off of his best season, was traded to the Houston Astros after the 2006 season (and before his third year of arbitration) for Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Hirsh. Dan O'Dowd was lambasted for this trade by most, yet in hindsight this move looks like an absolute steal.

Why? Because Jennings fell off a cliff once leaving the Rockies, sustaining arm injuries and pitching poorly enough that he's now the Rangers' mop-up man. Despite the hard times that have befallen JJ, let us remember his glory.

The 16th overall pick of the 1999 draft out of Baylor, JJ rocketed through the Rockies' system and made his big league debut in 2001, going 4-1 and having a rather memorable debut, pitching a five pitch shutout and hitting a home run. Jennings only got better in 2002, going 16-8 and winning the ROY. However, it was JJ's 2006 that cemented his status as a front line pitcher (or so thought poor Ed Wade).

In 2006 Jennings compiled a 9-13 record but had a 3.78 ERA (4.09 FIP) with 206 Ks (1.67 K/BB) in 212 IP, good enough for 4.2 WAR. And then O'Dowd sold high. What a move that was. His WAR since 2006: -1.1, -0.8. While I appreciate what JJ did for the Rockies, I'm glad O'Dowd let go when he did.

4. Kevin Ritz

Career WAR: 6.6 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 6.5, 1995-1997 (4th)
Top Season: 3.9, 1995 (5th)
Average Rank: 5

Kevin Ritz, a 4th round pick of Detroit in 1985, was picked as the 46th pick of the 1992 expansion draft by the Rockies. Ritz was a rotation regular by 1994 and had a nice two season stretch in 1995 and 1996. Ritz went 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 120 Ks (1.85 K/BB) in 173.1 IP for the Wild Card-winning Rockies in 1995 (3.9 WAR). He followed it up with a 2 WAR 1996, going 17-11.

Ritz's career ended when he was released by the Rockies during the 1998 season after he was unable to overcome arm injuries.

TOGB wrote a nice profile on Ritz in Rockies Retro.

5. Armando Reynoso

Career WAR: 7.6 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.0, 1993-1995 (6th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1993 (8th)
Average Rank: 6

Armando Reynoso, originally purchased by the Braves from his Mexican professional team, was selected by the Rockies with the 58th pick in the expansion draft. Reynoso quickly became Colorado's best pitcher, posting a 3.1 WAR in the team's inaugural season. However, his career was quickly detoured by chronic arm injuries, otherwise he'd be higher on this list. The righty, who possessed an awesome pick-off move, did manage to put up 1.1 and 2.6 WAR seasons in 1995 (half year) and 1996.

The Rockies traded the plucky finesse pitcher to the Mets after the 1996 season for Jerry DiPoto as he became more expensive given his injury risk. Reynoso won a World Series ring with the Diamondbacks despite performing poorly in 2001, his last real MLB season.

TOGB wrote a profile on Reynoso in Rockies Retro.

6. Marvin Freeman

Career WAR: 4.6 (8th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.6, 1994-1996 (T-8th)
Top Season: 4.0, 1994 (4th)
Average Rank: 6.67

Ladies and Gentleman, the single season ERA record holder for the Colorado Rockies! A 31 year-old Marvin Freeman was picked up off the scrap heap by the Rockies after the 1993 season, and though he only had one good season with the team, what a blaze of glory it was!

The imposing (6'7") righty was, quite frankly, amazing in 1994 for the Rockies. In only 112 innings (18 starts), Freeman went 10-2 with 67 Ks (2.91 K/BB) and a 2.80 ERA (3.84 FIP), worth 4.0 WAR!

Of course, in 1995 and 1996 everyone was reminded that Freeman wasn't actually this good (0.9 and -0.3 WAR) and he went away quietly--he was released at the waiver deadline in 1996.

7. John Thomson

Career WAR: 7.2 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.8, 1997-1999 (7th)
Top Season: 2.7, 1997 (10th)
Average Rank: 7.33

Drafted by the Rockies in the 7th round in 1993, Thomson exceeded the production of 1992 2nd round draft pick Mark Thompson, who I often confuse him for. Thomson reached the big leagues in 1997 as a 23 year old and had immediate success, posting 2.7 WAR (7-9, 4.71 ERA) and following that up with another 2.7 WAR (8-11, 4.81) season in 1998.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit Thomson hard after 1998, and he managed only half seasons in 1999 and 2001 with no season at all in 2000. Finally healthy in 2002, Thomson was traded at the July deadline with Mark Little to the Mets for a package that included Jay Payton. After the trade Thomson had a few injury-free years and performed well for the Rangers and the Braves, then was ultimately undone by more injuries.

8. Jeff Francis

Career WAR: 6.2 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.7, 2006-2008 (5th)
Top Season: 2.5, 2006 (13th)
Average Rank: 8.33

The 9th overall pick in the 2002 draft out of Canada, Jeff Francis moved rapidly through the Rockies' system and was with the big club by 2004 as a 23 year old. Francis finished sixth in the ROY voting in 2005, his first full season, then enjoyed two very nice years in 2006 and 2007.

The soft-tossing lefty equaled Ritz's and Astacio's franchise wins mark with his 17-9 record in 2007 (he had 2.2 WAR) and finished 9th in the Cy Young Award voting. However, he suffered a torn labrum after a tough 2008 and has been rehabbing the injury since then.

The Physicist has one year left on his contract ($5.75 million) with a $7 million club option for 2010. It will be interesting to see if Francis can ever return to his early form and make it worthwhile for the Rockies to exercise that option. I've taken a pretty pessimistic view on this injury from the start, so my money is that Francis will never contribute significantly to the team again. I would love to be proved wrong though.

Other great single seasons include Joe Kennedy's 2004 (4.7 WAR) and Roger Bailey's 1997 (3.2).

Career Underachievers: Mike Hampton (-1, though he was worth 2 WAR batting), Denny Neagle (1.1), Scott Elarton (-2.9), and Livan Hernandez (-1.2).

Others of note: Jimenez (3.4 and on his way to a place high on this list very soon), Darryl Kile (4.1), Jamey Wright (4.6), Shawn Chacon (2.2, but 3.9 as a starter), Josh Fogg (-0.6) Greg Reynolds (-1.5).

Next week I'll reveal the unholy amalgamation that is the Colorado Rockies All-WAR team.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Relief Pitchers)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Fuentes makes the cut. See who else joins him among the Rockies' elite relievers after the jump.

Browse more photos »

Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at relief pitcher.

Obviously this is not a comprehensive list of all relief pitchers, but all the pitchers who have made a large contribution to the Rockies as relievers were weighed, measured, and (often) found wanting.

As I explained in the pitching WAR article (please reference it for more detail on this point), relievers are by and large shortchanged by WAR (which is a counting, not a rate stat). This is because WAR ignores the game's situation and context--a strikeout when the bases are empty in a blowout is counted the same as a ninth-inning strikeout with the bases loaded in a one-run game.

As a result, relievers, whose primary value comes from delivering in high leverage situations, have their contributions diminished by WAR. There are stats out there that measure this well (like Leverage Index and Win Probability Added), but to measure relievers by those stats is both inconsistent with the rest of this series and impossible (the stats don't go back to 1993). In any case, Smith's WAR database remains an excellent way to quantify pitching value, starter or reliever.

Relief pitchers have consistently gained influence in baseball since the 1960s, evolving from the realm of broken down failed starters into a highly specialized field. As Dave Cameron said though:

Relievers are, in general, failed starting pitchers who are given an easier task that their skillset will allow them to handle. They are selectively managed to face hitters whom they have the best chance of getting out, and they get to throw at maximum effort on nearly every pitch, giving them greater velocity over their shorter appearances.

Nearly every starting pitcher in baseball could be a useful relief pitcher. Very few relief pitchers could be useful starting pitchers.

This doesn't necessarily hold true for the rare dominant closer, but by and large this is a good explanation of what a relief pitcher is. Many teams have chosen to bring their stud starting pitching prospects up in the bullpen to get them used to the majors and because it is relatively much easier than starting. Generally back-end relievers have one or two plus pitches that they can throw at maximum effort, often generating excellent results--but they would fail under the rigors of handling a lineup two or three times in a row.

The bullpen is by nature the most fungible piece the team, generating high turnover due to the incredible variability of relief pitching performance. After all, the Rockies only have Huston Street this year that has stayed in the bullpen all year long. While this is a little extreme, the Rockies have had quite a few relievers in their short history.

In order to qualify for consideration for this list the pitchers had to be one of the top five relievers in innings pitched in a given year or throw over 50 innings for the team in a mostly relief role. It's a relatively deep group, with 18 relievers delivering at least 1 WAR for the Rockies.

Relief Pitchers

Note: some of these pitchers were both starters and relievers for the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker. I'm ranking seven players to reflect the fact that the modern bullpen generally uses seven pitchers.

1. Steve Reed

Career WAR: 9.2 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 5.6, 1995-1997 (1st)
Top Season: 3.1, 1997 (T-2nd)
Average Rank: 1.33

Steve Reed is one of my favorite all-time Rockies. Though he never really closed for the team (15 saves over 7 years with the Rockies), I usually felt pretty secure about a lead that he protected. Reed is a great story, having signed with the Giants as an undrafted 23 year old college free agent, somehow making it to the majors at 27, and carving out a 13 year career out of it.

The Rockies acquired the right-hander with the 60th pick of the expansion draft and he paid immediate dividends for them, taking the ball 64 times in 1993 and solidifying the back end of the Colorado bullpen for five years. His best year was the magical 1995 Wild Card run (one of several excellent bullpen performances that year), in which he was 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA over 84 IP. His K/9 was 8.46 (3.76 K/BB) with a FIP of 3.25 and an incredible ERA+ of 252! All in all it was worth 3.1 WAR--a fantastic reliever season. Street this year has been worth only 1.5 WAR.

Reed left after the 1997 season for free agency, but returned as a 38 year old for the 2003 and 2004 Rockies, where he posted two 1.2 WAR seasons (great for a reliever). Indeed, Reed never posted a negative WAR for the Rockies, a stunning model of consistency in a variable profession. This consistent excellence is what made him the greatest Rockies reliever ever.

2. Brian Fuentes

Career WAR: 8.8 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 5.2, 2005-2007 (2nd)
Top Season: 2.7, 2005 (4th)
Average Rank: 2.67

The Rockies' all-time saves leader with 115, Brian Fuentes was acquired in the Jeff Cirillo trade from Seattle after the 2001 season. The former 25th round draft pick uses a deceptive left-handed delivery and plus stuff to baffle hitters from both sides of the plate, but as many Rockies fans will tell you, it was always an adventure with Fuentes.

Fuentes has had two seasons over 2 WAR of his seven with Colorado, the first of which occurring in 2005, when he posted a 2.91 ERA and a 3.40 FIP over 74.1 IP with a K/9 of 11.02 (K/BB of 2.68) and an ERA+ of 164 on the way to 2.7 WAR. Last year Fuentes had similar success (2 WAR) with a 2.73 ERA (2.24 FIP), 11.78 K/9 (3.73 K/BB), and 168 ERA+ over 62.2 IP.

As all things must, the Fuentes era came to a close (get it?) as he moved out of the Rockies' price range with his fine performance and as a Type A free agent garnered the Rockies what turned out to be Tim Wheeler and Rex Brothers. I think that Rockies fans are happy with the guy we got to replace him, though we certainly thank Brian for his seven years of service.

3. Curtis Leskanic

Career WAR: 5.2 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.2, 1993-1995 (9th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1995 (T-2nd)
Average Rank: 5

Contrary to Steve Reed, I had an irrational hatred of Curtis Leskanic as a young fan, predicting doom and gloom every time that he took the mound. Colorado acquired Leskanic (originally a 1989 8th round pick of the Indians) with the 66th pick in the expansion draft and plugged him right into the bullpen. The right-handed Leskanic generally handled setup duties and generally terrified me when he did so. I was even more mortified when he handled the closer position (20 saves as a Rockie).

The numbers by and large back me up on my fears, though Leskanic's saving grace on this list is his phenomenal 1995 (similar to Reed), in which he also delivered 3.1 WAR. Leskanic had a 6-3 record with 3.40 ERA (2.86 FIP) over 98 IP, 9.83 K/9 (3.24 K/BB), 10 saves, and a 159 ERA+. Most of Leskanic's Colorado years were very average besides his career year in 1995, as he was hampered by his high walk rate and poor FIP.

In any case, my personal torturer was traded by the Rockies after the 1999 season to the Brewers for another reliever, lefty specialist Mike Myers.

4. Bruce Ruffin

Career WAR: 5.7 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 4.6, 1993-1995 (3rd)
Top Season: 1.9, 1993 (10th)
Average Rank: 5.33

Bruce Ruffin is yet another original Rockie near the top of this list. The 1985 2nd round draft pick of the Phillies signed with Colorado as a free agent before 1993 and he finished out his career with the Rockies, through 1997. Though he'd primarily been a starter before coming to the Rockies, Ruffin was primarily a bullpen guy for Colorado. He served as Colorado's closer in 1994 and 1996, posting solid seasons both years. In all he finished with 60 saves as a Rockie.

Like Reed and Leskanic, Ruffin was excellent in 1995 as a full-time reliever (1.7 WAR) but his best overall season was 1993 (1.9 WAR), in which he started 12 games (remember, starters are more valuable than relievers!). All in all, Ruffin was very solid for the Rockies over his tenure with the team.

5a. Jerry Dipoto

Career WAR: 4.7 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.4, 1997-1999 (4th)
Top Season: 2.1, 1999 (8th)
Average Rank: 5.67

Jerry Dipoto, now an executive in the Diamondbacks system, pitched for Colorado from 1997-2000. The 1989 3rd round pick of the Indians was traded to Colorado in exchange for Armando Reynoso after the 1996 season. The right-handed Dipoto served as the Rockies' closer in 1997 and 1998, racking up 36 saves as a Rockie.

Dipoto was at his best, though, as a setup man in 1999 (2.1 WAR). Unfortunately, Dipoto's career was derailed by a neck injury before the 2000 season as he competed for the closer's job again, cutting short a promising career.

5b. Jose Jimenez

Career WAR: 4.2 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.2, 2000-2002 (5th)
Top Season: 2.3, 2000 (6th)
Average Rank: 5.67

Jose Jimenez, number two on the Rockies' all-time saves list with 102, was acquired by Colorado after the 1999 season as part of the trade that sent Dave Veres and the late Darryl Kile to St. Louis. Colorado converted the 26 year-old hard-throwing righty from a starter into a reliever. Jimenez made an immediate impact with the Rockies in his new role, saving 24 games with a 3.18 ERA (3.94 FIP) over 70.2 IP with a 182 ERA+ despite only a 5.60 K/9 ratio (suggesting a fluke), earning a WAR of 2.3.

Unsurprisingly, Jimenez never was that dominant again, though he did have two more useful seasons (including 41 saves in 2002) as the Rockies' closer, plus a fourth one that was poor and led to the Shawn Chacon experiment. The Rockies let Jimenez leave after 2003 and within a year he was out of baseball.

7. Darren Holmes

Career WAR: 3.8 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.6, 1995-1997 (6th)
Top Season: 2.3, 1995 (6th)
Average Rank: 6.33

Filling out my imaginary bullpen is the Rockies' first closer, Darren Holmes (he did the honors in 1993 and 1995). The 16th round pick of the Dodgers in 1984, Holmes was selected by the Rockies with the fifth pick of the expansion draft and inserted right into the closer's role (he saved 46 games as a Rockie).

Further showing just how special the 1995 bullpen was, Holmes had his career year then (2.3 WAR), going 6-1 and saving 14 games with a 167 ERA+. Once again, the Rockies in 1995 had Reed (3.1 WAR), Leskanic (3.1), Holmes (2.3), and Ruffin (1.7). That's quite a back end right there.

Holmes stayed with the Rockies through 1997, after which he kicked around the league for six more years, never again attaining the same success he enjoyed in Colorado.

Others of note: Mike Munoz, despite having pitched six years for the Rockies, ended up with a net -0.4 WAR (32nd overall) and an injured Roger Bailey on his conscience.

Gabe White owns the best single WAR reliever season (seriously) with his 3.3 WAR 2000. White in 83 IP was 11-2 with a 2.17 ERA (2.71 FIP), 9.00 K/9 (5.60 K/BB), and an ERA+ of 267! He never replicated that success again.

Manny Corpas finished tied with White for eighth with 3.4 WAR, while Taylor Buchholz (2.1) was 14th and Jason Grilli (1.1) was 16th.

Next week I'll tackle starting pitching, and then it will be time to assemble the greatest Rockies team ever.

Tracy Ringolsby reaches out to the Row to explain DL, playoff rosters

Poseidon's Fist — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 01:25:06 -0000

The Rockies have been to the playoffs twice in 18 seasons. It would make sense that Rockies fans would be unfamiliar with rules regarding playoff roster construction.

With the Rockies in good playoff position and Dexter Fowler headed to the disabled list, there were a lot of questions and confusion, understandably. Tracy Ringolsby emailed me, by his own initiative, in an effort to clear up the rules for all of our readers. The following is straight from the Cowboy.

"The requirement to be on the post-season roster is that you are in an organization by Aug. 31."
"If you have 25 players on active roster and no one on DL, those 25 are your post-season players."
"If a team has [X number of players] on the DL, it expands the choices they can make for filling out the post-season roster. At the end of the season, when the team puts together its post-season roster, they can replace any player on the disabled list at season's end with a player who was in organization as of Aug. 31, even if he wasn't in the big leagues. For example, Mark Redman replaced Rodrigo Lopez, I believe it was, in 2007."
The preceding rule makes no dichotomy between players on the 60-day DL and 15-day DL. Any member of the DL can be replaced by any player in the organization by August 31.
"You could add someone not on the 40-man, although that would be unusual because if you felt he could help you it would seem likely you had him around in September in some type of role."

Amoeba mentioned in the comments of the Dexter Fowler fanshot that any member sent down could be called up when rosters expand Sept 1, regardless of how long they were away from the big league team. Ringolsby clarifies that this is not the case:

"In recent years a couple adjustments were made regarding roster moves and Sept. 1."
"It used to be that a player sent to the minors could be called up as soon as rosters expanded, even if the player hadn't spent 10 days in the minors. But that is now changed and a player has to stay either 10 days or until the minor-league team's season is over, including the playoffs."
"It used to be that a player on the DL could be activated Sept. 1 even if he hadn't spent the full 15 days but the rules were changed so that you now are supposed to spend the full 15 days, according to MLB official I asked."

This means that Dexter Fowler will indeed be away from the Rockies for 15 days, making him available to return September 9 in the third game of a home series vs. the Reds. Most important to note, the Rockies currently have seven players on the disabled list, giving them seven spots to "play with."

Colorado Rockies Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Aaron Cook	shoulder	08/22/2009
Dexter Fowler	knee	08/25/2009
Juan Rincon	elbow	07/31/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Jeff Francis	shoulder	03/27/2009
Taylor Buchholz	elbow	03/27/2009
Manuel Corpas	elbow	07/21/2009
Alan Embree	leg	07/11/2009

MLB Trade Rumors: Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell to the Marlins for Prospects?

raygu — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Could Maybin be headed to San Diego?

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I was out getting ice cream with my daughter and some neighbors when I got a text from my brother. The text said that during the Marlins-Braves game last night, there was speculation that the Marlins would deal pitching prospect Andrew Miller, AA outfielder Mike Stanton and AAA outfielder Cameron Maybin to the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell.

Now, I am not certain if this was just the two announcers going back and forth with what it would take for the Marlins to haul in Gonzalez and Bell, or if there truly was some truth to this rumor. We all know that the Marlins are desperate for a closer, and they are rumored to be talking to the Padres about Bell, so it is quite possible.

I would think if there is some truth to this, that the Padres may want another prospect or two thrown into the deal as both AGonz and Bell are pretty cheap for the next few seasons.

Can the Padres do better elsewhere? Maybe Buchholz and Bowden from the Red Sox for AGonz?

Poll

Would the Padres demand more than just Maybin, Miller and Stanton for Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell?

Absolutely, throw in a couple more pitchers and they make the deal.

129 votes

No, all 3 are major league ready or close to major league ready.

67 votes

196 votes | Poll has closed