SB Nation - Jason Hirsh

Tuesday Rockpile: Has Dan O'Dowd forged MLB's best small market model?

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:25:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

We are told Hawpe isn't going anywhere. Should we be surprised? "Dealin" Dan O'Dowd doesn't like dealin' his homegrown talent very much

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Locking down leading men

Yesterday, Patrick Saunders suggested the Rockies would ink GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy to multi-year deals this week. This morning, the Denver Post strengthened their wording on the issue a bit. Now, a "major league source close to the situation" said the Rockies will sign both leading men to long-term deals, per Saunders and Troy Renck. Okay so that's not a shocker. They do mention the entirety of the MLB coaching staff will return in their current roles, again not surprising after the best regular season in franchise history.

But oh yeah - Tracy Ringolsby already reported that Sunday night.

Dan O'Clown or Bozo Beane?

There's room to argue the sense in giving an MLB contract, but there can be no legitimate beef with Dan O'Dowd. At the time of the Holliday trade in November, some exhibited worry that O'Dowd was playing with fire (Beane) and would likely get burned (Encarnacion/Ortiz/Belitz). It looks like Beane ought to be worried about O'Dowd now.

To further illustrate this point, I'll point you to Fangraphs, where RJ Anderson writes of the Problem with Oakland. Quite frankly, the Athletics just haven't drafted well, and their top prospects haven't panned out since Moneyball. Anderson identified the Rays and Rockies as two teams taking the torch in the small-market-internal-development game, so he compared the three clubs' top 10 prospects (from Baseball America) from 2004-07:

"The Rockies have an extraordinarily high retention rate* of 72.5% while the Rays/A's are equal with 42.5%."

*Retention rate is defined as percentage of prospects still within the organization at the start of 2009.

Moreover, all ten of the Rockies' top ten prospects from 2007 were within the organization this past March, while Oakland and Tampa only had five. That could be part of why the Rockies have two playoff appearances since 2007 to Tampa and Oakland's combined one...

Now time for commentary: Jason Hirsh and Jeff Baker were traded for scraps this season and no one is calling Dan O'Dowd late at night in hopes a brandy-filled evening will allow him to loosen his grip on Greg Reynolds or Chaz Roe. Those four represent an issue with representing small market success by retention rate. Retaining dud or uninspiring prospects isn't really worth rewarding. The Rays lost their top prospect from 2005-2007, but flipping him for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett was unquestionably the right move. Then again, after a decade drafting in the top five, they had the best prospects at their disposal for a long time, and the Rockies were drafting higher than Oakland in the time frame.

So what does this all tell us? The Rockies indeed develop players well, though mostly, it tells us Dan O'Dowd likes holding onto his prospects. That's all. The only top prospects from those four years that were traded prior to 2009 were Matt Holliday and Ryan Shealy (unanimously good trades). It tells us the Rockies seem to hold more firm to the developmental segment of the organization than their peers, which is partly why we fans latch onto our players so much. It also tells me that Dan O'Dowd would really have to break the mold to bring in a Brian Roberts.

Last cold links

Rox look to build on strong second half | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Thomas Harding breaks down the roster position-by-position. Included is the contract issues to keep an eye on. It's a good reference point if you haven't been reading the Row every day.

Mopping Up in 2009 | FanGraphs Baseball
Josh Fogg was mop up man in 2009 - his "MOP score" placed him second in MLB behind Luis Perdomo, who allowed Clint Barmes' inside-the-park home run last month.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Starting Pitchers)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Reed Saxon - AP

Where does Aaron Cook rank among Colorado's starting pitchers?

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at starting pitcher (through the 2008 season).

Obviously this is not a comprehensive list of all starting pitchers, but all the pitchers who have made a large contribution to the Rockies as starters were weighed, measured, and (often) found wanting. All in all, 54 players were ranked.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how pitching WAR is calculated. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

As I explained last week, starting pitchers are MUCH more valuable than relief pitchers when one is measuring WAR, by and large, due to the fact that WAR is a counting stat. Starting pitchers throw more innings and therefore have a greater influence on the game than do relievers, which stands to reason. This is also the reason why a pitcher like Franklin Morales, who could develop into a dominant closer, would be better off just remaining a starter.

Remember, relief pitchers are often failed starting pitchers who are given an easier task that their skillset will allow them to handle. Nearly every starting pitcher in baseball could be a useful relief pitcher. Very few relief pitchers could be useful starting pitchers. Replacement-level starters can be useful relievers; Juan Rincon is neither.

In any case, what both Smith and the fine folks at Fangraphs have shown is that star starting pitchers are just as valuable if not more so than star position players (and their contracts often bear this point out). Even though a dominant starting pitcher will only play once every five games, they have such a huge influence on whether their team wins the game that it mitigates the difference in playing time between the position player and, say, Troy Tulowitzki.

For instance, this season Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado's top pitcher) has been worth 5.5 WAR while Tulowitzki (the top position player) has accumulated 4.7 WAR. On a macro scale, the Rockies' pitching staff has actually contributed more WAR to the team (23.3, 2nd in MLB) than have the position players (16.5, 17th in MLB).

But I digress.

Like the denizens of the bullpen, a club's starting rotation is often in a constant state of flux due to injuries and inconsistent performance. The fact that the Rockies have only had five pitchers start more than two games this year is quite frankly amazing--the MLB average for this is closer to eight starters. I would say, though, that starting pitching performance is by and large more predictive overall than relief pitching performance due to the larger sample sizes involved in any one year's stats. A reliever can be unduly harmed or helped by luck when used less often--a trend that can see an unpleasant (or pleasant) change the subsequent year.

In order to qualify for consideration for this list the pitchers had to be one of the top five or six starters in innings pitched in a given year or throw over 50 innings for the team in a mostly starting role. It's a relatively deep group, with 14 starting pitchers having delivered at least one league average season (2 WAR) as a starter for the Rockies.

Starting Pitchers

Note: some of these pitchers were both starters and relievers for the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker. I'm ranking eight players to reflect the fact that the modern starting rotation generally uses eight pitchers in any given year.

Keep in mind when reading this list that WAR is a counting stat and therefore longevity counts for quite a bit, especially in this category. Also, Smith's numbers seem to be park-adjusted, therefore pre-humidor pitchers are given a nice park-factor boost to their less-than inspiring numbers (small consolation for having to pitch in an offensive haven.

1. Pedro Astacio

Career WAR: 9.9 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 9.3, 1999-2001 (1st)
Top Season: 5.3, 1999 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.33

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic as an 18 year old by the Dodgers, Pedro Astacio came over to the Rockies as a 27 year old before the waiver trade deadline in 1997 in exchange for Eric Young. Needless to say, trading EY was not originally a popular move with fans, but Astacio soon won over Colorado partisans with his sublime pitching even at Coors Field.

Astacio's third season with the Rockies, 1999, was the greatest pitching season in franchise history (though it will soon likely be surpassed by Jimenez this year) with 5.3 WAR. The 29 year-old righty threw 232 innings, managing a 17-11 record and 210 strikeouts (a club record to this day) despite a 5.04 ERA. Considering that Coors Field in 1999 had a Park Factor of 127 (this year = 107), it was pretty tough to succeed using conventional pitching stats. Astacio's 4.56 FIP and 8.15 K/9 (2.91 K/BB) hold up pretty well in such a poor pitching environment.

In any case, Astacio was traded by Colorado to Houston for homegrown pitcher Scott Elarton at the 2001 trading deadline as he approached free agency. Oddly enough, Astacio's performance never was even replacement level for the rest of his career even when pitching in better environs.

TOGB celebrated Astacio in an edition of Rockies Retro.

2a. Aaron Cook

Career WAR: 10.3 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 7.3, 2006-2008 (2nd)
Top Season: 3.4, 2008 (6th)
Average Rank: 3

You might not have realized it, but Aaron Cook has been pitching for the Rockies since 2002 (and he's signed through 2011 with a mutual option for 2012). His longevity and consistency (he's been over 1 WAR his last five seasons) are what puts the Rockies' 2nd round pick in 1997 near the top of this leaderboard and to the summit of the Rockies' career WAR leaderboard.

Cook's best year was his All-Star season last year, when in the awful beginning of the year he was the only thing keeping the season from becoming a complete disaster. His 16-9 record and 3.96 ERA in 211.1 IP got him on the All-Star team and his 3.76 FIP garnered him 3.4 WAR. His 4.37 career ERA is tops in Rockies history.

Going forward, Cook is a solid middle rotation starter that is locked into the Rockies for a couple of more years. He is already the longest-tenured Rockies starter, and could be one of the few players in today's game to pitch a long career with one club.

2b. Jason Jennings

Career WAR: 9.1 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 6.6, 2004-2006 (3rd)
Top Season: 4.2, 2006 (3rd)
Average Rank: 3

Talk about selling an asset high. Jason Jennings, the jewel of the Rockies' player development system, Rookie of the Year in 2002, coming off of his best season, was traded to the Houston Astros after the 2006 season (and before his third year of arbitration) for Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Hirsh. Dan O'Dowd was lambasted for this trade by most, yet in hindsight this move looks like an absolute steal.

Why? Because Jennings fell off a cliff once leaving the Rockies, sustaining arm injuries and pitching poorly enough that he's now the Rangers' mop-up man. Despite the hard times that have befallen JJ, let us remember his glory.

The 16th overall pick of the 1999 draft out of Baylor, JJ rocketed through the Rockies' system and made his big league debut in 2001, going 4-1 and having a rather memorable debut, pitching a five pitch shutout and hitting a home run. Jennings only got better in 2002, going 16-8 and winning the ROY. However, it was JJ's 2006 that cemented his status as a front line pitcher (or so thought poor Ed Wade).

In 2006 Jennings compiled a 9-13 record but had a 3.78 ERA (4.09 FIP) with 206 Ks (1.67 K/BB) in 212 IP, good enough for 4.2 WAR. And then O'Dowd sold high. What a move that was. His WAR since 2006: -1.1, -0.8. While I appreciate what JJ did for the Rockies, I'm glad O'Dowd let go when he did.

4. Kevin Ritz

Career WAR: 6.6 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 6.5, 1995-1997 (4th)
Top Season: 3.9, 1995 (5th)
Average Rank: 5

Kevin Ritz, a 4th round pick of Detroit in 1985, was picked as the 46th pick of the 1992 expansion draft by the Rockies. Ritz was a rotation regular by 1994 and had a nice two season stretch in 1995 and 1996. Ritz went 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 120 Ks (1.85 K/BB) in 173.1 IP for the Wild Card-winning Rockies in 1995 (3.9 WAR). He followed it up with a 2 WAR 1996, going 17-11.

Ritz's career ended when he was released by the Rockies during the 1998 season after he was unable to overcome arm injuries.

TOGB wrote a nice profile on Ritz in Rockies Retro.

5. Armando Reynoso

Career WAR: 7.6 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.0, 1993-1995 (6th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1993 (8th)
Average Rank: 6

Armando Reynoso, originally purchased by the Braves from his Mexican professional team, was selected by the Rockies with the 58th pick in the expansion draft. Reynoso quickly became Colorado's best pitcher, posting a 3.1 WAR in the team's inaugural season. However, his career was quickly detoured by chronic arm injuries, otherwise he'd be higher on this list. The righty, who possessed an awesome pick-off move, did manage to put up 1.1 and 2.6 WAR seasons in 1995 (half year) and 1996.

The Rockies traded the plucky finesse pitcher to the Mets after the 1996 season for Jerry DiPoto as he became more expensive given his injury risk. Reynoso won a World Series ring with the Diamondbacks despite performing poorly in 2001, his last real MLB season.

TOGB wrote a profile on Reynoso in Rockies Retro.

6. Marvin Freeman

Career WAR: 4.6 (8th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.6, 1994-1996 (T-8th)
Top Season: 4.0, 1994 (4th)
Average Rank: 6.67

Ladies and Gentleman, the single season ERA record holder for the Colorado Rockies! A 31 year-old Marvin Freeman was picked up off the scrap heap by the Rockies after the 1993 season, and though he only had one good season with the team, what a blaze of glory it was!

The imposing (6'7") righty was, quite frankly, amazing in 1994 for the Rockies. In only 112 innings (18 starts), Freeman went 10-2 with 67 Ks (2.91 K/BB) and a 2.80 ERA (3.84 FIP), worth 4.0 WAR!

Of course, in 1995 and 1996 everyone was reminded that Freeman wasn't actually this good (0.9 and -0.3 WAR) and he went away quietly--he was released at the waiver deadline in 1996.

7. John Thomson

Career WAR: 7.2 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.8, 1997-1999 (7th)
Top Season: 2.7, 1997 (10th)
Average Rank: 7.33

Drafted by the Rockies in the 7th round in 1993, Thomson exceeded the production of 1992 2nd round draft pick Mark Thompson, who I often confuse him for. Thomson reached the big leagues in 1997 as a 23 year old and had immediate success, posting 2.7 WAR (7-9, 4.71 ERA) and following that up with another 2.7 WAR (8-11, 4.81) season in 1998.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit Thomson hard after 1998, and he managed only half seasons in 1999 and 2001 with no season at all in 2000. Finally healthy in 2002, Thomson was traded at the July deadline with Mark Little to the Mets for a package that included Jay Payton. After the trade Thomson had a few injury-free years and performed well for the Rangers and the Braves, then was ultimately undone by more injuries.

8. Jeff Francis

Career WAR: 6.2 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.7, 2006-2008 (5th)
Top Season: 2.5, 2006 (13th)
Average Rank: 8.33

The 9th overall pick in the 2002 draft out of Canada, Jeff Francis moved rapidly through the Rockies' system and was with the big club by 2004 as a 23 year old. Francis finished sixth in the ROY voting in 2005, his first full season, then enjoyed two very nice years in 2006 and 2007.

The soft-tossing lefty equaled Ritz's and Astacio's franchise wins mark with his 17-9 record in 2007 (he had 2.2 WAR) and finished 9th in the Cy Young Award voting. However, he suffered a torn labrum after a tough 2008 and has been rehabbing the injury since then.

The Physicist has one year left on his contract ($5.75 million) with a $7 million club option for 2010. It will be interesting to see if Francis can ever return to his early form and make it worthwhile for the Rockies to exercise that option. I've taken a pretty pessimistic view on this injury from the start, so my money is that Francis will never contribute significantly to the team again. I would love to be proved wrong though.

Other great single seasons include Joe Kennedy's 2004 (4.7 WAR) and Roger Bailey's 1997 (3.2).

Career Underachievers: Mike Hampton (-1, though he was worth 2 WAR batting), Denny Neagle (1.1), Scott Elarton (-2.9), and Livan Hernandez (-1.2).

Others of note: Jimenez (3.4 and on his way to a place high on this list very soon), Darryl Kile (4.1), Jamey Wright (4.6), Shawn Chacon (2.2, but 3.9 as a starter), Josh Fogg (-0.6) Greg Reynolds (-1.5).

Next week I'll reveal the unholy amalgamation that is the Colorado Rockies All-WAR team.

Quick Summary of Recent Trades

Jack Moore — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 20:18:12 -0000

Just in case you've missed it, there's been quite a bit of activity on the trade market recently. Here's what has gone down in the last two or three days.

July 27th

Cleveland Indians trade Ryan Garko to San Francisco Giants for Scott Barnes

My analysis: This is only a marginal improvement for San Francisco. Garko is a better hitter than Travis Ishikawa, for sure, but Ishikawa is a great fielder. As I referenced here, SF should've been trying to improve their already good run prevention, and this is not the way to go about it. Barnes is a good pitching prospect, and this deal is a clear win for the Indians.

Other analysis: Bay City Ball, Fangraphs, Let's Go Tribe

July 28th

Chicago White Sox trade Brian Anderson to Boston Red Sox for Mark Kotsay

My analysis: This is probably the most meaningless trade you'll see this year. Both players had been struggling, and needed a change of scenery. Anderson, to me, is the better asset here due to age.

Other analysis: FanGraphs

July 29th

Pittsburgh Pirates trade Ian Snell, Jack Wilson to Seattle Mariners for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin, Nathan Adcock

My analysis: Snell and Wilson were both clearly done in Pittsburgh. They both, still, have the potential to be productive players in what would be an extremely unlikely Seattle playoff run in 2009, or a much more likely 2010 run. Jack Wilson is a tremendous defensive shortstop and plays at slightly better than league average, and Snell has shown the ability to be an above average pitcher. Jeff Clement's value, in my opinion, was mostly tied in his ability to catch. With his knees shot, he'll be moving to first base, where he will have to be able to play at least average or better defense for his bat to play there. Cedeno is a throw in. The 3 class A pitchers, however, are a very good pickup for a Pirates system that is getting better by the day. Check the other analyses for more on the pitchers.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Lookout Landing, Bucs Dugout

Seattle Mariners trade Wladimir Balentien to Cincinnati Reds for Robert Manuel

My analysis: Balentien was a touted prospect who looked very good in the minors, but has been stymied by big league pitching. At 25, Balentien's career is by no means over, but he needs a resurgence with Cincinnati. Manuel doesn't throw hard but appears to have exceptional control. He projects as a bullpen piece.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Lookout Landing, Basement Dwellers

Cleveland Indians trade Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco to Philadelphia Phillies for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald

My analysis: An exceptional deal for Philadelphia. Lee is incredibly cheap for both this year and next year (5.75M and 9M respectively). The Phillies hold on to Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ, and get the next best thing to Roy Halladay. This is not just a deal for this year, this is also a deal for next year, and being able to replace the anemic 5th spot in the Phillies rotation is huge. The prospects the Indians receive are certainly good, especially Knapp and Carrasco, but I feel they could've done better for Lee.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Let's Go Tribe, Crashburn Alley

Colorado Rockies trade Jason Hirsh to New York Yankees for PTBNL

My analysis: Meaningless move. Adds rotation depth, but Sergio Mitre has been performing admirably in his fill-in role.

Other analysis: Fangraphs

Pittsburgh Pirates trade Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants for Tim Alderson

My analysis: The ultimate win-now move. Too much to give up for a player like Freddy Sanchez, for sure. The Giants middle infielders have been struggling, and Freddy Sanchez is a good all-around player who will boost an anemic offense. Still, Alderson is a top-50 pitcher, and while some will disagree with that, his numbers seem to suggest that he has the potential to be a middle or even upper rotation guy, which is simply to much to give up for a rental like Sanchez.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Bucs Dugout, Bay City Ball

July 30th

Detroit Tigers trade Josh Anderson to Kansas City Royals for cash

My analysis: Josh Anderson, much like Brian Anderson, is a speedy outfielder who had recently been DFA by his team. Royals make a cheap pickup of a player who is still young enough to become a potentially productive player. Detroit just wasn't the right place for him.

Other analysis: Bless You Boys

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 14:32:24 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Casey McGehee is congratulated by Felipe Lopez after hitting a two-run home run Wednesday.

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Some things to read while reusing a pizza box.

Casey McGehee had a night to remember last night, hitting the game-winning pinch hit home run just hours after his 2 1/2 year old son Mackail threw out the first pitch, with the help of Prince Fielder. Mackail, McGehee's only child, is battling cerebral palsy. Last October, McGehee's wife Sarah set up a blog and posted about the first two years of Mackail's life. There's only one post, but it's a worthwhile read. (h/t TheJay)

Last night wasn't Manny Parra's best outing, but he managed to straighten things out after a rough start and get through six innings, saving the Brewer bullpen and keeping the team in the game. View From Bernie's Chalet saw some encouraging signs in the performance. Parra did, however, walk home two runs in the second inning, pushing the Brewer season total to 16. The franchise record is 20, and the Brewers may demolish it by the end of August as part of their Shattering Records, Shattering Hearts campaign.

Meanwhile, Doug Melvin continues to scour the market for potential pitching help. Today's notes:

Kevin Correia popped up in Rumorville this morning. He's posted a 4.75 ERA in 21 starts for the Padres, and while they may be looking to unload him, I believe he's also a free agent after the season, which is the type of player the Brewers have said they're not pursuing. Correia signed as a free agent with the Padres in December. (And actually, his new team could still take him to arbitration, since he'll only have about 5 years of service time. Thanks, TheJay!)
Eli Greenspan of MLB Daily Dish thinks the Brewers might be players for Orioles closer George Sherrill, and suggests the Brewers should offer a package with Jake Odorizzi (BCB Prospect #9) as the centerpiece. Odorizzi has a high upside but is also still in rookie ball, so he's probably a little too far from the big leagues to be the centerpiece in a deal.
Jesus Colome, meanwhile, pitched another scoreless inning, allowing a hit and striking out two, while picking up the save in Nashville last night.

At what point does the blame for the Brewers' poor pitching performance in 2009 fall on first year pitching coach Billy Castro? Obviously, injuries are a part of it, but Brewer Paradise Lost crunched the numbers and found a decline in every Brewer starter in 2009, while former Brewer pitching coach Mike Maddux is guiding an exceptional turnaround of the Rangers' staff.

Carlos Villanueva will make his second start on Sunday, giving him another opportunity to prove he belongs in the rotation. Villanueva pitched reasonably well into the fourth inning on Tuesday, and the Brewers don't really have anyone more deserving of the opportunity at this point.

Mike Rivera went 0-for-3 but walked and scored a run last night, meaning Brewer catchers are now 101 games into the season and still have yet to hit a home run. Over at Recondite Baseball, TheJay notes that Brewer catchers and Mets second basemen are the only two positions in baseball yet to go deep.

The Brewer outfielders, though, would probably still play deep against them. The outfielders have been moved back after Doug Melvin noticed the Brewers were giving up an inordinate amount of extra base hits, especially triples. Now, they're more prone to allowing bloop singles but should have fewer balls hit over their heads. I feel the need to correct one note in the article, though:

"Balls are going to fall in front, but in order to score one run with a ball dropping in front of you you're going to need two more hits," Macha said. "With a triple, you're just going to have to put the ball in play."

One of those instances came in Sunday's 10-2 loss to the Braves. With two out in the seventh inning, Atlanta's Garret Anderson lined a single that dropped in front of Brewers right fielder Corey Hart and led to howls of boos for the right fielder.

I was at Sunday's game, and I booed on that play, but I didn't boo because the outfielders were playing deep. I booed because, from my vantage point, it looked like Corey Hart took his time and jogged up to a playable ball, catching it on the hop instead of making a full effort. I don't think I've ever booed defensive positioning.

If you're planning on watching today's game, you'll be witnessing history: "Cowboy" Joe West will be today's home plate umpire, in his 4000th career game.

On Power Rankings:

Beyond the Box Score dropped the Brewers three spots to #22.
MLB FanHouse dropped the Brewers one spot to #20.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Reed Johnson is expected to miss a month after breaking his foot.
Giants: Acquired Freddy Sanchez from the Giants for minor league pitcher Tim Alderson.
Mariners: Acquired Ian Snell and Jack Wilson from the Pirates for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno and three minor leaguers, and traded Wladimir Balentien to the Reds for reliever Robert Manuel.
Orioles: Placed Rich Hill on the DL with shoulder tendinitis or a torn labrum, depending on who you ask.
Phillies: Acquired Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco from the Indians for four prospects.
Rockies: Signed Mike Timlin to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Placed Bartolo Colon on the DL with swelling in his elbow.
Yankees: Acquired reliever Jason Hirsh from the Rockies and released Brett Tomko.

We're one day closer to the trading deadline and Roy Halladay still has not moved. Jorge Posada thinks the Jays are asking for too much, but that wasn't enough to keep the Beloit Snappers from making an offer.

It's a strange world sometimes. When last we heard from Jose Rijo, he was leaving the Nationals amidst an FBI investigation into a bonus skimming scandal. So, what does one do next after being disgraced and chased off by the Nats? Rijo is running for mayor of San Cristobal. His opponent is Raul Mondesi. (h/t Baseball Musings)

Sometimes, when you sell at the trade deadline you don't get as much back as you'd like. On this day in 2001 the Brewers traded David Weathers for a mystery box that included Ruben Quevedo and Peter Zoccolillo.

Happy birthday today to 2004 Brewer and Timber Rattlers hitting coach Matt Erickson, who turns 34, 1992 Brewer Scott Fletcher, who turns 51, and former Brewers owner Bud Selig, who turns 75 and should celebrate his birthday by announcing his immediate retirement.

Drink up.

Wednesday Pebble Report: Bats alive in Colorado Springs and Modesto

Russ Oates — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 12:37:13 -0000

Colorado Springs, W 11-6
Tons of offense in this one. Matt Miller (2-for-4, 4 RBI) started things with a two-run homer in the first, but Greg Smith fell right out of the gate after that. He allowed back-to-back doubles and then served up a two-run homer. He would allow another two-run dinger in the third inning before exiting the game. Jason Hirsh allowed one hit over the next 3 1/3 innings.

Eric Young Jr. went 3-for-5; Mike McCoy drove in two; Christian Colonel hit two solo homers in back-to-back innings; and Chris Frey had three hits, one of which was a homer.

Tulsa, W 4-2
Tulsa was outhit in this game 3-5, but won 4-2. Keith Weiser allowed the two runs on a homer, struck out four, and lasted seven innings. Al Alburquerque and Andrew Johnston threw solid innings of relief to finish the game.

Modesto, W 10-6
The bats were out in force last night for the Nuts. Charlie Blackmon had quite a night, hitting a single, a triple (7), and a two-run homer (4). Wilin Rosario also had three hits, the lone extra-base one being a solo homer (4). Jay Cox had three hits and an RBI. Every starter drove in a at least run, except for Lars Davis and Radames Nazario.

Connor Graham allowed two unearned in five innings, committed a fielding error, and struck out nine.

Locally, yesterday was "Threesday," not Tuesday.

Tri-City, W 6-2
Ben Paulsen's hit an RBI single in the fourth, which was the only scoring on either side until the bottom of the seventh. Tim Wheeler knocked out a two-run triple (1) with two outs in the seventh, and Dallas Tarleton hit a two-run single in the eighth. Sheng-An Kuo allowed no runs in 5 2/3 innings and struck out five.

Casper, L 4-8
Juan Gonzalez couldn't quite get things done in the first three innings, allowing five runs. He stayed in for the next three innings and kept the game close at 5-3. Paul Bargas allowed three runs in the ninth. Eliezer Mesa had two hits and an RBI.

Friday Pebble Report: Buster Posey can't hit Greg Smith's 88 mph FB, Joe Table's nephew putting on the hits with Casper,

Rox Girl — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:52:00 -0000

Colorado Springs: L 6-7

I guess the thing to look at in last night's box score was the work of the MLB experienced pitchers that may help the Rockies later. Greg Smith had a decent start, Jason Hirsh struggled in his second relief appearance of the season, and Ryan Speier pitched well. Smith's performance along with that of Brandon Hynick with the Sky Sox thus far is decent to keep in the back of your head in case an injury bug hits our rotation. These guys aren't going to meet the level of our current starters at their best, but they aren't going to damage us terribly at the bottom end. The other good news from this game was despite the loss, our pitchers made Buster Posey look bad in his AAA debut:

Fresno Top 1st

Buster Posey grounds out like a weak four year old girl, shortstop Mike McCoy to first baseman Edwin Bellorin.

Fresno Top 4th

Buster Posey grounds out, third baseman Kenny Perez to first baseman Edwin Bellorin and starts crying. Buster Posey moves to time out on the play.

Fresno Top 6th

Buster Posey out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Daniel Ortmeier. Eugenio Velez scores. Buster Posey given lollipop and pat on head by Grizzlies manager.

Fresno Top 8th

Buster Posey grounds out, shortstop Mike McCoy to first baseman Edwin Bellorin. Right side of Sky Sox infield gets jealous.

Fresno Top 10th

Buster Posey merely flies out to center fielder Chris Frey in Colorado Springs, where even Kenny Perez can hit dingerz.

Well, that's how I read it anyway. Demoralizing the enemy at the minor league level probably doesn't help us win the wild card, but it makes me feel happy.

Tulsa: Postponed

Modesto: W 3-1

Connor Graham continues to be just good enough to be a legit prospect right outside the elites of the Rockies system, but not good enough to get into that next level. At this point given his age, his stuff and the starting depth that the Rockies already have, I have to think his role with the MLB team in two or three seasons will be in relief, and he's going to be good at it.

Charlie Blackmon had three hits and a walk to once again lead the Nuts offense. Rhadames Nazario also pitched in two hits.

Asheville: L 2-7

Kiel Roling had two hits including a double and Tyler Massey also had a pair of hits. Ethan Hollingsworth had one of his least efficient starts of the season, but still managed to put up some pretty impressive numbers, striking out ten while walking two. He gave up three runs on seven hits in five and two thirds innings.

Tri-City: W 3-2

Rod Scurry got one of those wins that detractors of the stat point to as a reason it's fundamentally flawed, as Scurry gave up the most runs of any Dust Devil pitcher to throw last night (2), in the least amount of time (one third of an inning), but because the offense rallied to save his tail in the next inning, he got the W rather than Sheng An Kuo, who allowed zero runs in five and two thirds or one of the other relievers. Speaking of those other relievers, we haven't talked about Kyle Walker much this season, but he is showing some nascent lefty specialist skills. Walker threw 1.2 innings last night in the win. On offense, Ben Paulsen, Orlando Sandoval and Jeremiah Sammy each had two hits.

Casper: W 8-1

Eliezer Mesa had a 4 for 5 night for the Ghosts, he has ten hits in his last four games and is now seven hits ahead of Angelys Nina for tops on the team. Trying to figure out how Mesa measures as a prospect, if at all, is kind of difficult. The obvious cons:

He's repeating the level
He doesn't walk
He doesn't hit for power (4 out of 27 hits for extra bases in an easy power environment)
He doesn't steal enough for a speedster
When he signed, we were told he may wind up in a corner, which makes cons one through four worse.

Honestly, this should be enough to write him off, and it's why we don't really talk about him much in our Pebble Reports. However, it's not quite that simple as there are reasons not to totally dismiss him just yet.

The pros:

Still at least somewhat young (21 in November)
Pro bloodlines. Don't discount this as an X-factor as a familial professional resource has helped several otherwise midgrade prospects hone their skills to the point that they actually deserved MLB jobs. EY2 would be a prime example.
He gets hits. Contact is king at the lower levels and Mesa isn't striking out very much, particularly lately. If you subscribe to the theory that power develops late, why not keep him around and see what happens?
He's playing center field right now and playing it pretty decently.

Chances are he stays what he is as another decent average, no power outfielder that will have difficulty cracking a AAA squad let alone an MLB team. There's little chance he cracks our top 30 prospect list anytime soon, but that doesn't mean we're completely ignoring him. Mesa's in a look but don't touch phase of development, still just an egg.

Wednesday Pebble Report

Russ Oates — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:39:44 -0000

Colorado Springs, L 3-7
Jason Hirsh was knocked around in 2 2/3 innings, allowing three in the first, one in the second, and three in the third. He surrendered six hits and walked four. The bullpen trio of Kurt Birkins, Ben Julianel, and Matt Belisle held Portland scoreless over the last 5 1/3 innings.

Matt Murton collected three hits, and Mike McCoy (at SS and CF) stole his 28th base. Portland's Mike Baxter had a double, a walk, and an RBI.

Tulsa, L 1-7
This was a tightly-played game on both sides. Chaz Roe went 6 1/3 innings, allowed four runs on four hits and two walks, and struck out five. He did have a no-hitter going into the fifth before Cedric Hunter hit a one-out single. Darin Holcomb hit a home run (4) in the eighth. Cole Garner took his eighth stolen base.

Modesto, L 7-8 in 13 innings
The Nuts doubled their run production from the second through fourth innings, but did nothing after. Brian Rike homered in the second inning; Hector Gomez had a two-run double in the third; and then a Matt Repec RBI single and a Jeff Cunningham three-run homer (3) in the fourth inning put the Nuts ahead 7-3.

Cory Riordan allowed seven runs on eight hits (two homers) and two walks. He struck out five. The bullpen trio of Carlos Luna, Matt Reynolds, and Craig Baker did a good job over the next four innings, but come the 13th, Ching-Lung Lo failed keep the game going. He allowed a double and a single before issuing an IBB. A sac fly then won the game.

The defense committed four errors.

Asheville, W 9-3
Parker Frazier turned in a quality outing with three runs scoring in 7 2/3 innings. He struck out seven and walked three. Two of the runs scored on solo home runs.

David Christensen turned in an outstanding performance in the confines of McCormick FIeld. He went 3-for-4 with a double, a homer (13, three-run), and four RBI. Delta Cleary went 4-for-4 with two RBI and a walk. Kiel Roling also had three hits.

Tri-City, W 8-5
It was quite a power show last night for Tri-City, as Mike Zuanich, Bo Bowman, and Jeremiah Sammy hit home runs. It was Zuanich's seventh, Bowman's second (a three-run shot), and Sammy's first and second. Sammy went 3-for-5 with three runs scored, two homers, and three RBI. Zuanich also collected three hits.

Brad McAtee allowed a run in four innings, Kyle Walker three in 1 2/3 innings, and Charlie Ruiz an unearned run in the ninth. Rhett Ballard allowed no runs in 2 1/3 innings and struck out four.

Casper, L 4-6
Kyle Hancock turned in his best pro outing so far, allowing only two runs in five innings. He walked three and struck out three. Two of the runs came on a homer in the fourth inning. He had a 6-4 GO-FO. Tyler Gagnon let things fall apart in the sixth when he allowed a three-run homer to Keon Broxton.

Tuesday Rockpile: Hawpe literally replaces Holliday's All-Star slot, bullpen news

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:40:59 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Starting for the National League in right field, #11 for the Colorado Rockies: BRAD HAWPE!

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Rock All-Stars

I really don't know how no one caught this Sunday night, but according to an mlb.com article from Sunday night, the Rockies will represent the NL West with the only divisional starter in the All-Star Game:

Since Beltran is now injured, the Rockies' Brad Hawpe will make his first All-Star start in the outfield by virtue of being the top pick on the players' ballot.

I like the fact that Hawpe has earned respect throughout the league. Hat tip to Wolf for picking up on this news. Justin Upton could replace Raul Ibanez if the Phillie can't return from rehab in time. Drew Litton celebrates the Rockies having an All-Star outfielder for consecutive years by pointing out what we all thought was possible all along.

ESPN's Buster Olney constructs his best NL All-Star team if he needed it to win a competitive game, one against LHP and one against RHP. Rockies fill in two roster spots in each, though Marquis, Jimenez and Street are absent.

We don't need no stinkin bullpen!

Or at least that seems to be All-Star Jason Marquis' thoughts. 8-9 innings and Street can finish it right? Jack Etkin touches on some very interesting stats regarding Marquis' performance of late in his Quick Hits post at insidetherockies. What he doesn't note is that, if I've done math correctly, Marquis is 2.1 scoreless innings away from breaking Franklin Morales' record of consecutive scoreless innings pitched. He's pitching like an all-star.

Dave Krieger notes that Dan O'Dowd's trade for Marquis is one of the best in franchise history. I'm still partial to that Dante Bichette/Kevin Reimer swap myself.

Okay, we probably do...

Big news on the bullpen front: Flores out, Morales called up from Colorado Springs. Frankie will get that rumored spot in the bullpen. Josh Fogg did fine in long relief when he was with the team (wait he's still on the roster?), though he's had trouble getting any appearances lately. Morales may ease into late inning work if he can handle it. I worry about his composure in high leverage situations, but I'm willing to throw his talent out there in place of other options.

Manny Corpas will begin rehab assignment Wednesday. If all goes well, he could be back in a Rockies uni the first game after the All-Star Break next Thursday. Patrick Saunders points to Corpas' recovery as a key - "perhaps the key" - to the second half. This is very true, but it is also sobering. I'm no doctor, but pitching with bone chips sounds painful and unsustainable. A healthy Corpas would be great, but that's leaning on a lame horse. Corpas is optimistic and feels unaffected...for now.

So could we get someone in a trade to shore up the pen? It would involve elevating the payroll, so turn to the Monforts for that answer:

"It depends on who it is. So many teams want our young players, and if that's what it takes, it's not going to happen." - Dick Monfort, Renck

Scratch off Heath Bell from your wish lists. Keeping all of the Hynicks, Rogers', Chacins etc means that if this team wants legitimate bullpen help, it will have to come via Ryan Spilborghs and/or Garrett Atkins. Roy Halladay is available, and he's probably one of those depends-who-it-is characters, though he would take multiple top prospects, and the rotation doesn't need help - it has in fact been clearly the strength of this team.

Other News

Brandon Hynick was the PCL Pitcher of the Week for June 29-July 5. His only appearance that week was his perfect game.

The Rocky Mountain Independent launched yesterday, a new Colorado region newspaper with Inside The Rockies' Steve Foster as a driving force. Paid membership is required. Foster's first Rockies related article there outlines the six prospects he wants to see at the MLB level now: Brandon Hynick, Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, Eric Young Jr, Franklin Morales, and Jason Hirsh. Sign up and pay if you'd like to support area media, but Foster's article doesn't offer anything mind-blowing.

Paul Phillips did indeed pass through waivers and accepted his assignment at AAA.

Carlos Gonzalez' glove is made of pure gold, magic and rainbows. That glove is earning him plenty of playing time despite a lackluster showing with the bat, as well as undue credit:

Gonzalez still has not gotten on track offensively, mired in an 0-for-12 slump. But the Rockies are 16-3 when he starts. -Renck

Rockies believe best is yet to come | ColoradoRockies.com: News
General feature fluff.

Another key to the Rockies' second half is Troy Tulowitzki. RMN posted a Counting Rocks on Tulo yesterday, which got buried by other material, so I'm linking it here too.

Thursday Pebble Report: Three Driller hurlers shine in Texas League All-Star Game

Poseidon's Fist — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:48:06 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Just like the parent club, four Rox farm teams suffered close and disappointing losses last night.

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AAA Colorado Springs, L 6-7 - (46-33, 1st)

Jason Hirsh could not keep the momentum going after his fantastic previous start. He was rocked for 6 runs (5 earned) in the first three innings by the Sacramento Bees (Angels), putting the Sky Sox in a hole they could not recover from. Hirsh has allowed 5+ ER in 3 of his last 4 starts and 5 of 7.

The Sox did most of their damage off Francisco Rodriguez (not K-Rod) in the sixth. Daniel Ortmeier and Christian Colonel walked, then Chris Frey dobled to plate two and Eric Young Jr. singled him home. They loaded the bases down two with one out in the ninth. Edwin Bellorin brought them within one with a walk, but Frey grounded out, forcing Jonathan Herrera at home and EYJ couldn't come through in the clutch.

Matt Miller reached base four times and Daniel Ortmeier scored three times. Every slot in the order got a hit except Mike McCoy - starting DH Jeff Baker was 0-3, but Mark Bellhorn singled while pinch-hitting for him (perhaps after the news of Baker being traded?) in the ninth.

Tonight's game pits Alan Johnson (7-3, 5.87) against Shane Loux (0-1, 3.86) at 7:05MDT at Secutiry Service Field.

AA Tulsa, Off Day - (2-3, 2.0 GB)

The Drillers had their second straight off day, but five Drillers played in the Texas League All-Star Game, helping the North defeat the South 2-1. Esmil Rogers, Jhoulys Chacin and Andrew Johnston each threw a scoreless inning - Johnston earned the "save." Jeff Kindel went 0-4 as the starting first baseman, and starting shortstop Daniel Mayora was 0-2.

Tulsa will travel to Corpus Christi to take on the Hooks (Astros) at 6:05MDT tonight. Chaz Roe (2-1, 2.55) earned his first loss in his last stat despite not allowing an earned run; in avenging hs loss, he'll be opposed by Sergio Perez (6-6, 4.60 ERA).

Get to know one of the top catching prospects in the organization - 20 Questions with Michael McKenry. Interesting note: he threw out the first pitch at age 5 for one of Michael Jordan's minor league games.

High-A Modesto, L 0-2 - (2-5, 3.5 GB)

In just his fourth start of the season, Ryan Tatsuko (2-2, 3.06) of the Bakersfield Blaze was just two outs from a no-hitter when Hector Gomez stepped in the box in the ninth inning. In his third game since returning from injury, Gomez laced a line drive single to center for what would be the only Nut hit. Kenny Durst (2-7, 5.10) took the loss despite pitching his longest game of the year (Jason Hammel anyone?), going 7.1 IP, allowing both Blaze runs.

The Nuts take on the Blaze again tonight at 8:05 MDT.

Low-A Asheville, L 1-3 - (4-2, 1st)

The Savannah Sand Gnats (Mets) ended Asheville's three game winning streak in spite of three errors and only three hits. All the damage came on Raul Reyes' third home run, a three-run shot. Whew - Larry Walker would be proud. Jonnathan Aristil (0-5, 5.01) allowed all three hits and runs. Tyler Massey and Ryan Peisel hit consecutive doubles for the lone Tourist run. Peisel added another double and Scott Robinson singled to wrap up the Tourists' offense for the night. Beau Seabury struck out with two runners in scoring position to end the game.

The two teams face off tonight at 5:00MDT, starting pitchers TBA.

SS A Tri-City, W 6-4 - (10-2, 1st)

In yesterday's Rockpile comments, Rox Girl noted the power surge of Mike Zuanich. No jinx there. Zuanich hit his 6th home run in just 32 AB's for the Dust Devils this season while Kevin Clark hit his first home run of the season against the Boise Hawks (Cubs). Clark started the season in Modesto but dropped to Tri-City June 22. A Joey Wong double and Tim Wheeler single was all the DDevils could muster, but they took advantage of walks and errors to push across six runs.

The teams meet up again tonight at 8:15 MDT.

Rookie Casper, L 5-6, W 4-3 (9 inn) - (2-7, 5 GB)

The Ghosts played a double header against Idaho Falls Chukars (Royals) to make up for the rainout June 26. In Game 1, Casper wasted 2-hit games by CF Eliezer Mesa, LF Chandler Laurent (I want to call him Ralph), C Dustin Garneau and RF Avery Barnes but blowing a 4-1 lead in the final two innings. David Born and Clinton McKinney combined to allow five runs in sixth and seventh.

In Game 2, C Brandon Whitby hit a 2-run home run in the bottom of the seventh at midnight to send the game to extra innings with a 2-2 score. After Alejandro Barraza gave the Chukars the lead by yielding a triple and sac fly in the top of the 9th, the Ghosts stormed back for a walkoff win. Whiby singled, Laurent doubled him home and then scored the final run on a Mesa fielder's choice. The game ended at almost 1:00AM local time.

The Ghosts play the Chukars again tonight at 7:15 MDT.

Saturday Pebble Report: Jhoulys Chacin struggles in loss

Russ Oates — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 13:37:50 -0000

Colorado Springs, W 3-2
Ah, we meet again, Shawn Chacon. He's biding his time in Sacramento for now. He took the loss, though he struck out eight Sky Sox batters. In the fifth, Chris Frey drove in a run after Dan Ortmeier reached base on a double. In the ninth, Matt Murton doubled in a run and then scored on two consecutive wild pitches. Jason Hirsh went 6 2/3 innings and allowed three hits.

Tulsa, L 2-10
Jhoulys Chacin was knocked around for six runs over 5 1/3 innings. He walked three, struck out five, and allowed two homers. Daniel Mayora had a homer (4). Tommy Baumgardner struck out four in 1 2/3 innings.

As a result, Tulsa lost the first-half title for the North Division.

Modesto, L 2-4
Charlie Blackmon had a two-run double in the second, and Jay Cox had three hits to raise his average to .300. Kenny Durst allowed four runs (one earned) on four hits and four walks in six innings. Randall Taylor and Matt Reynolds held Visalia hitless over the last two innings.

Asheville, L 0-3
Scott Robinson had a hit and stole two bases (24). Jonnathan Aristil allowed those runs, but the relief pitching did well. Alan Deratt, Kurt Yacko, Tyler Trice, and Michael Marbry held Greenville scoreless for the last 4 2/3 innings.

Tri-City, W 8-3
Matt Baugh struck eight out in four innings. The other four outs were of the ground ball variety. Mike Zuanich hit a three-run homer in the fourth inning off of Juston Street, Huston's brother. Scott Beerer and Matt Sanders each had two hits and an RBI. Shane Lowe stole two bases and scored twice.

Casper did not play due to rain.