SB Nation - Chad Bradford

Wednesday Afternoon Quick Hits

Eli Greenspan — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 22:36:57 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

Here are some links for you guys on this Wednesday afternoon:

Before I get to the links, I have a MLBDD-related announcement: Are you interested in writing for MLB Daily Dish once or twice a week? If you have knowledge of all thirty teams and are available to write once or twice a week for a portion of the day, please email me here. In your email, include some of your writing background, as well as two articles, displaying your knowledge of a particular situation or concept.

If you have any questions about the openings, feel free to email me: mlbrumors@gmail.com.

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters that interim manager Jim Riggleman has a legitimate shot to return as manager in 2010. The Nationals are expected to explore the market, possibly interviewing former managers like Mike Hargrove, Buck Showalter, or Bobby Valentine. The search is expected to begin after the season.
The New York Daily News is reporting that Mets would like to bring Alex Cora back for the 2010 season. Cora is currently on the disabled list, but his versatility makes him a desirable bench player. An inexpensive one year deal should do the trick.
35-year old sidearmer Chad Bradford may retire after this season, he told the St. Petersburg Times. Bradford, who said his decision won't come until January, hasn't had a full season since 2007 with the Orioles. He has a career 3.26 ERA in 561 appearances.
The Rangers would be smart to use Marlin Byrd in center field next season, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal suggests. The Rangers need to sign Byrd first, which might be tough after putting up career highs in home runs and runs batted in. Still, there is a mutual interest so a deal is possible.
The White Sox may move closer Bobby Jenks after this season. Jenks, who is not a free agent until 2011, who has 29 saves with a 3.71 ERA in 52 games. The Braves could target Jenks as their closer, assuming they let Rafael Soriano walk.
Check this out! Mariners television broadcaster Mike Blowers predicted that Matt Tuiasosopo will hit a home run. It wasn't just predicting the home run, he predicted to what part of the field, the count, and which at-bat. Very impressive.

The End of the Bad Contracts - Pitching Edition

Stacey — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 03:12:10 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Your time is almost up, Danys. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

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With just a few days left in the 2009 season, the Orioles are on the cusp of being out from under a number of contracts, notably those of the pitchers Danys Baez and Jamie Walker, two of the more ill advised contracts in recent Oriole history. Between the two of them they made $11.67M in 2009, which is over 17% of the total payroll and more than Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, Felix Pie, Adam Jones, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Luke Scott, Cesar Izturis, and Nick Markakis made combined (I know, I know, most of those guys haven't been free agents, but still, on talent vs. value that's just criminal).

Just after the 2006 season, a time that feels like an eternity ago, Mike Flanagan and Jim Duquette attempted to shore up a miserable Orioles bullpen by throwing millions of dollars at Chad Bradford, Danys Baez, and Jamie Walker. For the three relief pitchers the Orioles committed over $40M over 3 years, an investment upon which they wouldn't even come close to breaking even.

Jamie Walker: $12M. Chad Bradford: $10.5M. Danys Baez: $19M. Do you know how many relief pitchers are worth $19M over three years? Not many. With the exception of premiere pitchers like Mariano Rivera, relief pitchers are too volatile, too susceptible to injury, to sustain that type of value.

Orioles fans can say with certainty that these contracts were a bad idea. We watched the games, after all. We cringed every time Walker came in to face Carlos Pena or David Ortiz. We watched Baez walk God and country and follow it up with a home run to blow the save more than a few times. If you look at the numbers, it just gets worse. Per FanGraphs, here are the values of the Orioles three bullpen investments over the duration of their contracts:

Name/year	WAR	Value	Salary
Baez '07	-0.8	($3.1)	$5.7
Baez '08	N/A	N/A	$6.2
Baez '09	0.2	$0.8	$7.2
Bradford '07	1.3	$5.4	$3.2
Bradford '08 (O's/Rays)	0.5	$2.5	$3.7
Bradford '09 (Rays)	0.1	$0.5	$3.7
Walker '07	0.7	$2.9	$3.0
Walker '08	-1.0	($4.5)	$4.5
Walker '09	-0.3	($1.5)	$4.5

Do the math and the those three pitchers were paid just over $41M for $3M worth of pitching. See the details on each pitcher below the jump...

Chad Bradford - The least offensive of the three contracts went to Chad Bradford. The 2006 Orioles allowed 216 home runs, the most in the American League. Bradford, coming from a very effective Mets bullpen and known for being stingy with home runs, could only help with that stat. Bradford signed for three years, $10.5M, with the buzz around baseball at the time being that he only agreed to come to the Orioles if they guaranteed the third year, something most teams were not willing to do.

In year one of his contract, Bradford more than earned his $3M. He made 78 appearances, second on the team to only Jamie Walker. True to form he allowed just 1 HR all year and finished the season with an ERA+ of 138. His 2.2 BB/9 was lowest on the team as he walked just 16 in 64.2 innings.

2008 began with Bradford being as useful as the previous year. He made 47 appearances for the Orioles with a 2.45 ERA, allowing just 2 HR (one was Manny Ramirez's 500th at a game I had the "fortune" of attending). Bradford was looking strong for the second consecutive year until Andy MacPhail traded him to the Rays in August. It appeared he was traded for PTBNL but it ended up to be a cash transaction of about $20K. Some Orioles fans were up in arms over MacPhail throwing Bradford away for nothing, but it appears that he got rid of him at just the right time. Bradford finished the year with Tampa Bay in a less than stellar way. His walk rate jumped, his K rate fell, and while his final results didn't show it (just 3 ER in 19 IP), Bradford just wasn't as good.

2009 hasn't been kind to Bradford. He had to undergo elbow surgery in the offseason and didn't make his first appearance until 27 June. Less than one month later he went back onto the disabled list with back troubles. Since returning on August 23rd he's been less than impressive.

Thanks to the fortuitous timing of his trade, Orioles fans are able to look back on Chad Brad and his Chadstache fondly, but had he stayed here all three years it would have been just another failed contract.

Jamie Walker - Jamie Walker is a cool cat that never should have been signed to a three year deal. He did awesome things like say, "If it fits in a skillet, I kill it." He bought Koji cowboy boots and he got fined for saying in the press that the umpires are on the take. Unfortunately, when it came down to it, Jamie Walker did not deserve three years. Most 35 year old relievers do not deserve three year deals.

Walker was good in his first year, setting an Orioles record for games appeared in with 81. He struck out 41 in 61 innings and walked only 17. He was especially good against lefties, allowing just 24 hits by them all year, 19 of which were singles. Even with his effective year, FanGraphs still valued him at $2.9M, $100K less than what he was paid.

While he was good in 2007, it all fell apart in 2008. It wasn't Walker's fault; he just got too old. The junk he'd always thrown got a little too junky. The lefties who had had an OPS of just .594 against him in 2007 knocked him around to to the tune of a .913 OPS in 2008. He gave up 31 runs in 38 innings and caused Orioles fans around the world to curse both Walker and Dave Trembley for continuing to run him out there.

2009 was more of the same. 22 appearances, 12 innings, 8 runs, 5 home runs, 9 out of 23 inherited runners scored. Mercifully the Orioles put Jamie Walker out of his misery on 5 June, giving him his release. Walker hasn't been heard from since as, at age 37, he surely knows he is cooked.

Danys Baez - Ah, saving the best for last. Baez got the biggest, gaudiest contract of them all. Unlike Walker and Bradford, Baez did not start his Orioles career by being effective. Baez pitched 50.1 innings over 53 appearances in 2007, walking a ridiculous 5.8 per 9 innings and racking up an ERA of 6.44. In 2007 Baez was that pitcher that caused me to turn off the television before even seeing what he might do. Baez was shut down in the middle of September and would miss the entire 2008 season with an elbow tear.

Baez came to spring training 2009 as part of the starting rotation competition. He didn't make it, but started the year suprisingly well and has pitched more effectively than most of us would have predicted. That's not to say that he's been outstanding, because he hasn't been. He certainly hasn't been worth the 6 plus million dollars he's being paid this year, but he hasn't been awful, especially when compared to some of the garbage that has rolled out of the Orioles bullpen.

Even with his minor resurgence this season, the Danys Baez contract was a colossal failure. Same for Jamie Walker. Chad Bradford was headed down that road as well before he was traded. And in a few days, they will all be off the books. Somehow I can't see Andy MacPhail making those kinds of deals, can you?

Chad Bradford Must've Hit Lady Luck in the Head with a Piano

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 01:33:15 -0000

Chad Bradford has faced 36 batters.
30 of them have put a ball into play.
20 of those balls in play have been classified as groundballs.
52% of those grounders have turned into hits.

Bradford's overall BABIP is .540, but despite such, his tRA is 2.19 and FIP is 1.29. Let this be a lesson in how deceiving BAA (Bradford's is .444) really is. One glance at that figure and you would think Bradford is throwing watermelons*, instead he's been remarkably unlucky. It might be the oddest line of the year in the majors.

*I would argue throwing a watermelon and making it over the plate is far more impressive than throwing a baseball, but I digress.

Pat Burrell Exits Game With Injury; Jeff Bennett Optioned, Chad Bradford Ready

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 12:26:51 -0000

A couple of injury related notes from last night's loss. The neck injury that sideline Pat Burrell for 29 games earlier in the season was re-aggrivated during last night's game. Willy Aybar replace Burrell and there is a chance he could miss tonight's game. Burrell is still struggling at the plate, but has shown signs of power recently. His ISO for the last 25 games is a more Burrell like .241.

In an unrelated move, Jeff Bennett was optioned to Triple-A Durham. It was presumed that Bennett's optioning would make room for Chad Bradford, who is ready to return from the DL. However, with Burrell's injury the Rays may opt to call up a position player like Justin Ruggiano or Matt Joyce to help an already short bench. I find it odd that the Rays have carried eight pitchers for so long especially when they had an option on Bennett.

Lance Cormier Graduates From Mop-Up Man To Valuable Rays Reliever

Tommy Rancel — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 17:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Lance Cormier's role has evolved from mop-up man to one of their more recent set-up men in a span of months with the Rays.

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It's no secret that before the season I was self-appointed as the chairman of the Lance Cormier fan club. Since calling for the Rays to sign him in December of last year to arguing for him to be included on the roster out of spring, Lance Cormier has been to me what Gregg Zaun is to R.J. Cormier started the season as the Rays long man and got plenty of work early on thanks to ineffectiveness from Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Niemann.

In April and May, Cormier made 18 appearances and racked up 37 innings. The Rays finally started getting good outings from their starting pitching and the need for a long man became less and less as the summer rolled on. In June and July, Cormier made just 13 appearances for a total of 18.1 innings. Cormier went through long stretches of inactivity including seeing no game action from 5/28-6/10 (12 days). From June 23^rd through July 19^th he made just four appearances. To his credit, Cormier has remained solid throughout the long patches of live game action.

	G	IP
April	9	18
May	9	19
June	5	7
July	8	11.1
August	3	3.1

Not only has Cormier's workload seen its ups and downs, but so has the situations he's been used. Take a look at the month to month pLI (Average Leverage Index) and gmLI (Average Leverage Index when he enters a game) for him this year.

	pLI	gmLI
April	0.22	0.26
May	0.81	0.93
June	0.7	0.61
July	0.27	0.29
August	1.75	1.93

In April, he was pretty much Mr. Mop-Up. One way or the other, Cormier saw a lot of innings in one sided games. In May, the Rays gave him a little bit more rope, but slowly took back some of that rope in June. By July he was back to being low-leverage king. However, with the injury to Chad Bradford as well as the game of roster shuffle being played by Andrew Friedman, Cormier has once again seen his role change.

Over the past two weeks, Cormier's name has been called from the pen as many times as J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler. You'll also notice that he has earned the trust of his coaches and is now being used in big boy situations. SSS Alert, but in the month of August, his pLI is second highest only to J.P. Howell and his gmLI is the highest of any including Howell. Maybe we should start calling him Mr. Freeze.

Way back when signing Cormier was only a figment of my imagination, I compared him to Chad Bradford. No, he's not quite the extreme ground baller that Bradford is, but he is a predominately ground ball pitcher, who does not get many strikeouts and benefits from an above average defense. I was pretty surprised to see how true that comparison has played out. Over the last 10 seasons, only seven relief pitchers have pitched at least 50 innings with a sub 2.80 ERA and a K/9 of less than the 4.6 Cormier has right now. The Rays had one of those relievers on their team last year. His name is Chad Bradford. However, despite the fact that 2008 Bradford and 2009 Cormier had identical HR/9 rates, Cormier's 3.38 FIP is 0.70 lower that Bradford's 4.08.

With the addition of Russ Springer and the ineffectiveness of Jeff Bennett is Cormier's old role, there is a chance that Cormier could return to his low-level throne. Nonetheless, given the recent success he's had in mid-high leverage situations that might not happen. Cormier is arbitration eligible after the season and should see a nice raise of a little over a million dollars, but given the fact the he is about to put up back to back above average seasons he will once again be a bullpen bargain for the Rays.

Why High Priced Non-Elite Relievers Aren't Worth the Money

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 07:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

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We've heard plenty of times this year about how the Rays need to add a veteran pitcher with closing experience. After Troy Percival's back, arm, and legs gave out along with Jason Isringhausen's arm blowing up, the Rays were left with a rag tag group of pitchers. No current member has held the Rays closer except for Dan Wheeler, who held it ever so briefly in Houston. Not only has the Rays pen not sunk without a true anchor, they've actually been really good. Coming as Thursday afternoon, the Rays were second in bullpen ERA (3.48) and fourth in FIP (3.89). The group also boasts the third best K/BB and fourth best HR/9. Not bad for a group with no names.

Here are the monthly breakdowns...

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/BB
April	63.1	3.84	4.1	1.81
May	101	4.19	4.6	1.84
June	70	1.67	2.61	3.1
July	66.1	4.21	4.08	2.5
August	14.2	2.45	3.28	2.75

The Rays pen was really never as bad as we thought. Sure, May was not pretty, but it was a far cry from Rays bullpens of the past. The Rays May bullpen also included veteran closer, Troy Percival, who allowed six earned runs in six innings and had a 9.00 ERA/7.57 FIP on the month. Since then, J.P. Howell and Co. have shut down teams more often than not. Every bullpen has a few hiccups along the way, but the Rays have a solid nucleus of guys with no defined titles. " As Dan Wheeler said the Rays don't need defined roles, but everyone has a job and understand that job. "Most of us just kind of understand when we're going to pitch." said Wheeler.

Could the Rays use another one of those non-descript arms like Jason Frasor or Michael Wuertz? Definitely, but the days of paying a veteran reliever a lot of money are likely over for the Rays. Just look at the production they've gotten from the collective group of Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse aka the Rays relievers who are 34 years or older.

	IP	ERA	FIP	Salary
Percival	11.1	6.35	6.86	$4.45
Bradford	4.1	2.08	1.69	$3.50
Isringhausen	8	2.25	4.2	$0.75
Shouse	16.1	5.51	5.95	$1.35
Nelson	40.1	4.02	5.62	$1.30
	79.4	4.042	4.864	$11.35

Thats over $11 million dollars for what equates to be around league average production. If you take away Nelson, who is currently in Durham, the Rays will pay over $10 million dollars in salary to four relievers who have pitched less than 40 innings combined. Percival and Izzy are done for the season. Bradford is on the DL for the second time with no time table of returning (although I'd expect September at the latest) and Shouse is just returning from his injury. Percival's production was just awful even if it was just a small sample size. I think we all know that had he continued it would've only gotten worse. Isringhausen was ok, but was too small of a sample. Bradford and Shouse are still effective when used properly, but we have guys like Lance Cormier and Randy Choate, who have sub 4 FIPs and will make just a little over a million dollars combined.

The signings of Nelson and Shouse were not bad signings because of their length. Both essentially are on one year deals even though the Rays hold Nelson's rights for future seasons and a club option on Shouse for 2010. I'm not saying avoid all veteran relief pitchers, but signing non elite level veteran relievers to anything more than a one year deal is volitle. I'm not telling any of you guys anything new . Getting less production with a greater injury risk for more money just doesn't make sense for any team let alone the Rays. Most "experts" will continue to say the Rays need a closer, and I'm sure on all the offseason "wish lists" there will be "closer" in the box next to the Rays, but it's not necessary.

The Rays almost certainly will once again pass on the big name who have the closer title attached to them inflating their price. Instead, the team should seriously consider locking up J.P. Howell, who is one of the games true young elite relievers, as well as continue to bargain shop for the next Howell, Grant Balfour or Lance Cormier.

What a Jason Frasor Type Means to the Rays

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 18:23:22 -0000

Time to address what another reliever would bring to the team.

Let's take Jason Frasor. 2.47 FIP so far, ZiPS has him at 2.96 moving forward. Toronto's usage has left him with a 1.36 pLI this year, which would rank second on the Rays, just ahead of Dan Wheeler and essentially equal to Chad Bradford. Thanks to those two factors, Frasor has been worth 1.2 wins this season. For comparison, Wheeler has a 4.31 FIP and 1.21 pLI but has only been worth 0.2 WAR.

Relievers are ultimately valueless in comparison to other positions. J.P. Howell has been awesome and he's still shy of 2 WAR. Last year he was awesome and finished with 1.5 WAR. We expected Cliff Lee to give us about 1.5 WAR heading forward, let's take a look at the amount of relievers who finished with 1.5 for the entire season over the years:

2008: 18

2007: 22

2006: 20

That means expecting anything close to that for someone like Frasor is ludicrous. If Frasor simply pitches 30 innings for the Rays at his current rate, he'll be worth about a win for the team, but here's the caveat: he won't. A) He's not going to pitch the highest leveraged innings as he did during Scott Downs absence, and B) He's unlikely to pitch as well. That means you should expect even less than a win from perhaps the best relief option available.

Someone like Frasor would help the Rays, but has no illusions of him being overly necessary.

There's an entire chain of events that could happen if the Rays acquire someone like Frasor that I didn't get into. Since he's only here for a year and a third, and Howell is entering arbitration, the Rays could save money by shifting Howell back to relief ace status and implementing Frasor in the 9^th. Or Frasor could take some high leverage innings as the Rays ‘platoon' relievers based on match-ups. There's also the impact of having less Dan Wheeler (or whomever) in high leverage spots which plays a factor, and the price that Frasor would require in prospects.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:40:30 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Is Todd Coffey pitching too much?

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Some things to read while braving the wilderness.

The Brewers open a key three game series tonight with the Atlanta Braves, and I answered some questions about it over at Talking Chop. I also asked Martin Gondy some questions, and I'll have his answers here around 1 pm today.

Beyond that, it's a pretty slow news day. There are some minor tidbits on the Roy Halladay front: He's reportedly given the Blue Jays a list of teams to which he'll approve a trade. View From Bernie's Chalet is also hoping the Brewers won't mortgage the future to acquire him.

The Brewers made a trade on this day in 1998, acquiring Eric Plunk from the Indians for Doug Jones. Plunk pitched in 94 games as a Brewer, posting a 4.63 ERA.

This year's bullpen is in slightly better shape than 1998's. Brewer Paradise Lost looks at bullpen usage this season, worries about the usage of Todd Coffey and ponders the strange case of Carlos Villanueva.

Yesterday I mentioned Tim Dillard as a potential candidate to make the start on Tuesday, the next time the Brewers will need a #5 starter. A few hours later, Tom H. mentioned it too. Dillard leads the PCL with 10 wins and has posted a 3.66 ERA in 118 innings for Nashville.

While it's a slow news day on the major league level, I do have several minor league notes to pass along:

Miles Prentice III, the owner of the Huntsville Stars, had a 45 minute meeting yesterday with Huntsville mayor Tommy Battle to discuss a potential new stadium. Prentice downplayed the possibility of moving the team if a new stadium is not built, but stressed the fact that the Brewers aren't happy with the current facilities.
If we re-did the Community Prospect Rankings today, Evan Anundsen would almost certainly climb into the top ten, and might actually be the Brewers' top pitching prospect. FanGraphs notes that Anundsen leads the Florida State League in both strikeouts per nine innings pitched and FIP.
Erik Komatsu played in just one game in April for Wisconsin before going down with an injury, but returned to the lineup this week as a DH. Hopefully he can make something out of the six weeks or so left in the minor league season.
The Helena Brewers are making the most of their opportunities in the Pioneer League. Cash Kruth of the Official Site has a look at several Brewers putting up impressive numbers in their first pro season, including SS Josh Prince, who is hitting .336/.455/.383 and has already stolen 23 bases in 107 ABs.
Could the Brewers leave Arizona for spring training and rookie ball? The Orioles are leaving their spring training facility in Ft. Myers for a new one in Sarasota, and the Brewers have been mentioned as a possibility to take their place. The Brewers' current deal in Maryvale runs through 2012.

Prince Fielder's power numbers this season have been impressive, but it's also been a banner year for first basemen across baseball: Baseball Analysts notes that eight of the top thirteen home run hitters in baseball this season are first basemen, with three outfielders, a third baseman and a second baseman filling out the other five spots.

The Brewers dropped from 10th to 18th in Yahoo's Power Rankings.

Sometimes I think we forget how far the Brewers have come in a short period of time. On this day in 2001, the Brewers lost their eleventh straight game, and this list at The Hardball Times shows they lost ten straight games as recently as 2006. The most amazing stat, though, is at the bottom of the list: The Yankees haven't lost ten straight games since June 3, 1913.

Around baseball:

Astros: Placed Lance Berkman on the DL with a calf strain.
Blue Jays: Designated David Delucci for assignment.
Nationals: Placed Jordan Zimmermann on the DL with elbow discomfort.
Phillies: Placed J.C. Romero (forearm strain) and Chad Durbin (latissimus strain) on the DL.
Rays: Placed Chad Bradford on the DL with back stiffness.
Rockies: Acquired Rafael Betancourt from the Indians for a low-level minor league pitcher.

Happy birthday today to Jerry Augustine, who was born in Wisconsin, went to school at UW La Crosse and spent his entire major league career as a Brewer. He turns 56 today. Joe Oliver, who caught 97 games for the '95 Brewers, also turns 44.

Thankfully, both guys are easier to shop for than a woodpecker.

Drink up.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Buggenhagen — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 14:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

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Buyers or sellers?

The Rays are probably going to be holders before anything, but if I had to label them with a short-term title I would say they are closer to being buyers than they're sellers. The Rays are only 4 ½ games behind the first place Yankees and still have a few holes they could fill prior to the deadline.

Short-term need

On the surface the Rays probably have one immediate short-term need, and that's catcher. The rest of their infield is pretty stout. They had all-stars at every infield position, excluding catcher. Dioner Navarro has been nothing short of a disappointment for the Rays this year .226/.253/.328. Additionally, his backup Michel Hernandez has been just as bad, if not worse .256/.291/.329. The Rays more than anything need some guys in house to start performing at a more consistent level. Players like B.J. Upton, Pat Burrell, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Niemann and David Price have been very inconsistent in their play throughout the entire season. If these players settle in and start performing at a more consistent level the Rays will be fine, and should find themselves right in the thick of the postseason race. However, don't expect the Rays to be very active. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays didn't make any short-term quick fixes.

Long-term need

The Rays probably have the most talented young team in all of baseball, so it's tough to say what exactly their long-term need would be. Probably more than anything the Rays long-term needs are more financially focused. They're going to have to begin the process of figuring out how to keep this team together. They already completed the first part, which was signing third baseman Evan Longoria to a long-term contract, but over the course of the next few years they'll have several stars ready to hit the free agent market. In the next two years alone the Rays have roughly 76% of their current roster up for free agency including Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Akinori Iwamura, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson, Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler, Jeff Niemann, Randy Choate, B.J. Upton, J.P. Howell, Matt Garza, Ben Zobrist, and Joe Dillon. Things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa, the Rays bubble may be in jeopardy of bursting real soon.

Big leaguers on the market?

I don't expect the Rays to have any big leaguers on the market; they're in contention and really have no reason to deal anybody on their current major league roster. However, as we've said things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa soon, so maybe if someone blew them away with an offer they might trade someone like either Scott Kazmir or Carl Crawford, but it's unlikely. Kazmir just signed a new three-year deal, where he is scheduled to make $6 million in 2009, $8 million in 2010, $12 million in 2011 and a club option for $13.5 million in 2012 (which has a $2.5 million buyout). Crawford's current contract has a club option for $10 million next year, which could increase to $11.5 million with escalators. Both contracts are pretty expensive for the Rays so it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Rays to listen to offers, but I wouldn't expect them to deal either player.

Minor league strength

The Rays minor league system has thinned out a bit, which is understandable given how many major league stars they have produced over the last few years. They still have a few young potential stars, which for the most part seem to be pitchers. Of course the cornerstone of their young pitching is former number one overall selection David Price. However, Price isn't the only young pitcher the Rays have. They also have two really good young pitchers in Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. John Sickels of Minor League Ball considers Davis a "Gil Meche" type, and Hellickson he says has "Excellent combination of command with solid stuff."

One area that the Rays probably need to address is looking to add some depth to their system with position players. They have one really good position player in shortstop Tim Beckham (2008 number one overall selection). Beckham has struggled a bit so far in his career, but he's only 19, and most scouts' think he will come around soon. He's regarded as an excellent shortstop with great bat speed, which should lead to average power in his future.

In an effort to begin adding to that much needed depth the Rays used their first five draft selections in the 2009 draft on position players, which includes their first round pick, high school second baseman LeVon Washington.

Take on short-term money to win?

The Rays could probably take on some money, but it could only be a very small amount. However, I doubt the Rays are thrilled about the idea of taking on additional money, but if a deal came along that made them considerably better they might take a shot.

For more coverage of the Rays check out DRays Bay.

Scott Kazmir Makes Ground Meat of Royals; Leaves With Forearm Cramp

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 04:12:26 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Zack Greinke gave up double digit baserunners in seven innings. The sky might fall.

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The Scott Kazmir rejuvenation tour made another stop tonight and we witnessed an entirely different pitcher. He wound up walking one more than he struck out, but 12 of his 17 balls in play were of the ground ball variety. Kazmir's fastball apparently averaged 93 miles per hour and topped out at 95.2. That looked way too good to be true, so I ran tonight's average velocities against the data provided to FanGraphs by Baseball Info Solutions. Here's what I got:

Pitcher	Tonight	BIS	Net
Kazmir	93.4	89.9	3.5
Choate	89.7	87	2.7
Chen	88.6	86.1	2.5
Bradford	80.3	77.9	2.4
Cruz	96.4	94.1	2.3
Wheeler	90.2	88	2.2
Colon	95.5	93.7	1.8
Balfour	94.7	93	1.7
Greinke	94.9	93.7	1.2
Bale	89.6	88.6	1
Howell	86.6	85.8	0.8

An average of 2 MPH gained and not a single pitcher had down velocity. That means Kazmir was probably closer to 91 and topped out at 93. That or the rest did everyone really, really well.

The strikeout and velocity figures don't reflect how hack-inducing Kazmir's stuff was though. 11/101 pitches ended with swings and misses. Despite swinging out of the zone a lot, the Royals do make a fair amount of contact when they swing. So it's probably fair to say Kazmir should get the share of credit for the whiff rate. Let's look at Kazmir's stuff.

(Yes, that ‘slider' is most likely a fastball)

Everything looks just about right. Kazmir's fastballs have a clear two-seam/four-seam cluster effect working. They were getting very good rise and run towards lefties. His slider had some nice break towards righties. Kazmir's velocity remained constant throughout the game, 94 (unadjusted) on his final fastball of the night.

He left the game with "cramps in his lower left forearm". It's reportedly minor. His performance certainly didn't show many signs of serious injury.

Other thoughts:

The Royals defense is really, really poor.

Willy Aybar took advantage with four hits, three singles. Pat Burrell added a double, Ben Zobrist had two singles, and B.J Upton rounded out the multiple hit brigade with three singles.

Chad Bradford's BABIP entering tonight was .571. It only went up. It'll only go down.

Oh and watching Greinke: wow, just wow. Just give him the AL Cy Young.