SB Nation - Manuel Corpas

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

The State of the Rockies: Post GM Meetings Update

Jabberwocky — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:42:43 -0000

In what will be a semi-weekly occurrence from now until January on Purple Row Academy, I'm going to update my post on the State of the Rockies. In other words, I will update my loyal readers (all three of you)--as well as anyone ~~stupid~~ intrepid enough to follow me after the jump as to the roster framework the Rockies are looking at as some big offseason deadlines approach.

This week, I'll be looking at what has happened thus far for the Rockies and what that means going forward. Also discussed will be the Rockies' impending decision on Rafael Betancourt's club option and how the Rockies are affected by the Elias Free Agent classifications.

By next week, we should have a better idea of what the Rockies are doing as the beginning of free agency and the deadline to set 40 man rosters approaches (November 20th).

Jump with me, brave souls, to roster-building nirvana...

Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man, they will be paid the prorated minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This list of players the Rockies definitely owe money to next year has become more certain, especially since Colorado declined the options of Embree and Torrealba as I predicted. Embree won't be back, but as RG wrote this morning, the door is open for Torrealba to return.

Pre-Arbitration Players

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$2,897,390

The main difference on this pre-arb chart is that I've taken out Paul Phillips, who was outrighted on Monday to clear up 40 man roster spots and looks like he'll become a free agent. That leaves a hole in the projected roster at backup catcher, perhaps to be filled by Torrealba, a cheaper in-house option such as Mike McKenry, or even a free agent catcher.

Even with the extra spot in the roster open, I'm not using Matt Murton to fill it because he would be the sixth outfielder. One of Murton, Ryan Spilborghs, and Hawpe will likely be gone--and more than one leaving is possible.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Since my previous post two weeks ago, the Rockies have avoided salary arbitration with two of their prospective cases, relievers Randy Flores and Matt Belisle. The Rockies were able to secure the services of these two relievers for less than I had predicted--Flores for $650,000 and Belisle for $850000, raises of 6.25 and 8.33% respectively. Both contracts have incentives based on number of appearances, neither of which I predict will be triggered.

With Belisle and Flores in the fold, the Rockies stil have eight potential arbitration cases to negotiate--including that of Garrett Atkins, who is almost certain to be non-tendered. The Rockies may (should) do this before the November 20th deadline for setting the 40 man roster in order to protect another prospect from the Rule 5 draft. Let's face it: Atkins won't engender much interest from teams at his current price point (minimum of $5.64 million). For that reason I'm removing him from the below chart. Bold numbers represent concrete salaries, not just predictions

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	6.25%
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	8.33%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$25,837,560	141.06%

As you can see, this is considerably less than two weeks ago, due mostly to Atkins but also because Belisle and Flores were signed more cheaply than I had anticipated. Another effect of Atkins being removed is that the Rockies' average player salary increase from arbitration is closer to reflecting the league average of 172%.

Of the seven arbitration cases that remain, I could really see De La Rosa and maybe Spilborghs getting to actual salary arbitration. De La Rosa in particular could garner a larger salary than I predict here (more in the $6.5 million range). Meanwhile, Barmes and Street seem more likley to take the multi-year contract route and might have lower salaries this year than I'd projected.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control (besides Atkins, that is) and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 22 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore the salary of three players would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $2,897,390

Arbitration Contracts: $25,837,560

Total ODP: $76,792,950

In other words, a roster that still has three spots open is about $1.6 million over last year's ODP.

The Betancourt Variable

The variables as far as the Rockies are concerned from now until November 20th are their free agents. The most pressing and important of these players to the front office is set-up man Rafael Betancourt, whose $5.4 million club option expires tomorrow.

Betancourt has reportedly already turned down a multi-year offer from the Rockies, so it is important for Dan O'Dowd to decide whether he wants the 35 year old Betancourt to be the set-up man next year or not. If the option is declined, Betancourt may still be retained, but the Rockies will have to bid against other teams for his services.

I've made my opinion on the issue of bullpen spending pretty clear--I believe that bullpen performance is highly variable, very fungible, and an inefficient use of salary dollars. Obviously many people disagree with me on this, but I'd prefer the Rockies to bring back Jose Contreras as a combo set-up man rotation insurance.

As Thomas Harding notes, the Rockies are interested in re-signing Contreras and Joe Beimel, who combined will probably make about the same as Betancourt's club option.

Free Agent Classification

Another reason for the Rockies to perhaps let Betancourt go would be his status as a Type A free agent. I wrote about free agency compensation several months ago, but the gist is that the top 20% of players in their positional groups (1B/DH/OF, 2B/SS/3B, C, SP, RP) as calculated by Elias are classified as Type A free agents. The formula for these calculations is complicated, convoluted, and confidential, rarely making a list that makes much sense.

In return for losing one of these players in free agency, a club receives the signing club's first round pick in the Rule 4 draft as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. As I discussed in my analysis of the Betancourt trade back in July, the draft picks from a type A free agent are typically worth $5 million to a team. In fact, in that article I recommended that the Rockies decline Betancourt's option and retain the draft picks.

Unfortunately, the Rockies would have to offer Betancourt arbitration in order to receive the draft picks in return--and in this lackluster market, the risk is high that Betancourt will accept and get even more than the $5.4 million club option. The same logic applies to Colorado's other free agents. If the Rockies want to take advantage of the Type B status (sandwich pick as compensation) of Jason Marquis, Torrealba, and Beimel they would have to offer arbitration--and there is a relatively high risk that these players would accept.

Is the risk worth it? For someone like Betancourt, who probably won't get a commensurate offer on the open market, especially with his type A status, the proposition is too chancy. For Marquis, who is likely to draw strong interest in a weak starting pitching market from his hometown Mets, the risk might be low enough to offer him arbitration. My personal view is that Colorado should offer arbitration to Beimel because his arbitration cost would be around his market cost--relatively low. Marquis could command $10-12 million in arbitration, so the Rockies need to be certain that he would decline before they offer it to him.

Next week the picture for the Betancourt situation should be a little clearer as the option decision will be made and the 40 man roster will be solidified. Until then, don't touch that stove. It's hot.

Poll

Should the Rockies exercise their $5.4 million club option on Rafael Betancourt?

Yes. He was nails last season and provides a solid bridge to Huston Street.

111 votes

No, the Rockies should try to sign him at a lower price over a multi-year deal.

131 votes

No, Betancourt is old and signing him would tie up too much salary to the bullpen.

40 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

The State of the Colorado Rockies (Pre-Free Agency)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:38:04 -0000

While Major League Baseball has yet to crown a champion, the Rockies' season is (unfortunately) over and it is time to look forward towards the swiftly oncoming offseason. The Rockies have quite a to-do list this year.

The clock for Colorado and the rest of MLB starts ticking when the Fall (Winter?) Classic concludes, as teams have 15 days to exclusively negotiate with their prospective free agents. After that time (let's say November 20th), free agents are, well, free to go where their services are most sought after. The original team has until December 12th to tender 2010 contracts to their free agents.

For those players (like Garrett Atkins) who have less than six years of MLB service time, their teams control their rights, but must tender the player a contract offer or salary arbitration, by December 1st--with the player needing to make a decision by the 7th. As a result, at baseball's Winter Meetings from December 7-10, teams will have some idea as to where the market stands.

Finally, December 8th is a very important deadline, as it is the day in which MLB clubs must set their 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, which occurs on the 10th.

These dates and other offseason deadlines are explained in more detail here.

To learn a little bit more about some of the topics I just touched upon, please check out these previous sessions of Purple Row Academy, which I'll be updating over the offseason:

Trades and Contract Tenders

Rule 5 Draft

Now that you understand a little better the timeline that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are working with, I'll break down the Rockies' contract situations (and the decisions to be made therein) extensively after the jump.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Additional Minimum Obligation	Years After 2010

Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This chart shows that the Rockies, even if they do not re-sign Torrealba or Embree, have committed over $48 million to seven players on the 2010 roster. And these are only the players who the Rockies know how much they have to pay. Again, this is if the Rockies don't pick up any club options on these players.

Pre-Arbitration Players

For the players listed below, the Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). For the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. This is assuming that the Rockies let Embree and Torrealba walk and find internal replacements. The pre-arbitration players:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

This chart tells us that the Rockies will be paying a little over $3.3 million to eight players on the 25 man roster. This fact again emphasizes the importance of teams maximizing the value of young players.

The player whose omission sticks out on that list is Matt Murton. With his service time, he would seem to be eligible for Super Two Arbitration status, but due to the fact that he did not accrue at least 86 days of ML service time in 2009 he is rendered ineligible for salary arbitration. At least, I think so. Of course, unless the Rockies unload either Hawpe or Ryan Spilborghs, Murton won't be on the roster--and since this projection is based upon roster stability, Murton is not included on this projection.

Projecting these 15 slots was easy--it's the potential arbitration cases that can get tricky.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

In addition to the 15 players mentioned in the tables above, plus Matt Murton (who would be the victim of a numbers game if the status quo is kept), the Rockies have 10 potential salary arbitration cases on their hands with players that have between three and six years of ML service time (Tracy Ringolsby lists them here). Calculating potential salaries for these players is quite tricky. As I noted when I wrote about ML service time, the average salary raise in 2009 was 172% when multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players (like Ryan Howard's 3 year, $54 million deal) are included.

The Rockies in 2008 gave raises of over 300% to Clint Barmes and Jorge De La Rosa plus hefty salary increases to Taylor Buchholz, Huston Street, Garrett Atkins, and Jason Grilli--raises which increased payroll by $7,649,000 over the six players' 2008 salaries. This year, the Rockies' situation will be much more expensive, with several of their arb-eligible players performing at a high level in 2009.

When projecting arbitration raises for the Rockies I did so based on some past history--giving higher % raises to players with a lower starting salary and to those who had performed in a starting role.

Here's which I came up with, provided the Rockies tendered a 2010 contract offer to each of their arbitration eligibles:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Garrett Atkins	5.072	$5,640,000	-20%
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$1,200,000	50%
Randy Flores	5.061	$900,000	50%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90%

Total		$32,077,560	134%

This chart tells us that based on career performance and function (weighted more heavily toward 2009), the Rockies will pay these 10 players over $32 million--about $13.7 million more than they were paid in 2009. This chart is even assuming that Garrett Atkins will be tendered and will accept a minimum 80% of his previous year's salary (unlikely). Even with Atkins, the projected average arbitration salary increases is only 134%, well below 2009's MLB average of 172%--meaning that my estimated raises, shocking in their size as they may seem, may even be on the low side.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 24 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore another player's salary would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $3,324,840

Arbitration Contracts: $32,077,560

Total ODP: $83,460,400

In other words, the Rockies' ODP will need to grow by $8,259,400, or 10.98%, in order to maintain the status quo (a cost certainty price floor, if you will).

What This All Means

It's pretty obvious to me that the status quo won't happen, as Atkins will likely be non-tendered and one of the outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, or Murton) will be shopped around and dealt. What the above calculation shows, however, is that the Rockies will have very little payroll flexibility to add pieces for 2010--especially if the Rockies need to replace Atkins and grab another bullpen piece.

The most pressing issue given this limitation is the $5.4 million team option on set-up man Rafael Betancourt--in my opinion the team simply can't afford to pay it, unless they are planning on moving Hawpe and his $7.5 million contract. Also, the Rockies have a few free agents they'd like to re-sign, including Joe Beimel (who will probably cost around $2 million), Jason Giambi ($1.5 million), and Torrealba (at most $2 million). Again, Colorado would need to move Hawpe to make this possible.

Remember though that if the Rockies do move Hawpe, they'll receive trade assets in return--and especially if those players are major leaguers they must also be well-compensated.

If I Were In Charge...

Given the financial limitations facing the Rockies and in light of the fact that they were very successful in 2009, a fine line must be walked between cost consciousness and competitiveness. Because the Rockies can not add very many, if any, significant pieces given their current projected payroll, they need to make a few moves. Here's what I would do this offseason to shape the 2010 Rockies:

1. Non-Tender Garrett Atkins. For the love of God, please--Atkins doubles as expensive and bad.

2. Pick only one or two out-going free agents to re-sign. There isn't any room for more than that. The Rockies' top priority should be getting back Betancourt or Beimel if they can get them back for a reasonable price (in this case, under $2.5 million). Relief pitching is too fungible and the market too inefficient to pay relievers big bucks. Likely this person will be Beimel. If the Rockies can get Torrealba back for about $1.5-2 million, they should do it--but they should let him walk if he wants much more than that. An alternative to Torrealba would be to keep Giambi around if he could be had for $1.5 million to come off the bench. I would keep one or the other (or neither), there isn't money for both.

Torrealba would replace Phillips on the roster or Giambi would replace the recently outrighted Omar Quintanilla.

3. Look hard for a taker for Brad Hawpe. In order for the Rockies to shore up their rotation and find a suitable sub for Atkins, they will need to move someone from their glut of outfielders to maintain payroll flexibility. Hawpe may very well be the Rockies' best hitting outfielder and an excellent leader in the clubhouse, but his horrific defense, much higher salary, and All-Star status make Hawpe an ideal trade piece--a player that has much more marginal value to prospective trading partners than he does to his own team. Even after his cold second half, Hawpe does have value around the league (especially as a DH), enough to garner the package I've outlined below.

A possible trade package for Hawpe would be a young back-end rotation starter and either a corner infield reserve or a B prospect or two. The Rockies need starting pitching depth for the simple reason that they were fortunate with pitcher health last year (basically the same five starters all year)--something that will likely not continue next year. They do have a bevy of good pitching prospects, but they will be relying on Francis or Morales to nail down the fifth slot in the rotation, so some insurance is probably needed. If the Rockies can get a major league-ready arm plus a prospect for Hawpe they should pull the trigger.

If no such trade package were to surface, either Spilborghs or Murton would need to be moved--and my decision would be Spilborghs due to the fact that he's older, will command a higher salary, and has Scott Boras as an agent.

4. Gauge the market for Manuel Corpas. If someone will offer value, I'd move him. But value in this situation would be relatively high--I'd hate to sell low on Corpas.

5. Bring in the usual suspects on minor league deals as pitching depth. There are plenty of guys that fit this mold (Fogg, Herges, Rincon, etc.). This is cheap depth to be used in case of dire emergencies only.

The resulting ODP from these moves (assuming Hawpe is moved) would be about $76.7 million, a slight payroll increase from 2009.

Looking back, looking forward: Rocktober Rumination

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 12:54:31 -0000

Thia ain't over yet, Todd. You'll get another shot at it.

View full size photo »

I'm tired.

Monday night I quietly rode the AF bus home from the Market Street station, listening to a couple people casually talking about the game, mispronouncing names and referring to critical players as "that guy" or "that one player who hit it". At this point, I'm rolling my eyes, but I'm not going to interject them and tell them what was really up. I've been doing that all season. I'm the Rockies guy. Everyone asks me about trades, the roster, "what's up with the pitching?" etc. In fact, after Game 1 in Philly, I showed up to a class for my Master's program about 10 minutes late, and the professor said, "I'm so sorry". No admonishment, no note of late attendance, but rather sympathy.

No, the season is over. I'm not the Rockies guy tonight. I'll let them have their conversation without bothering them. Instead, I just clicked on the light on up above me and went back to my book, "The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip through Buck O'Neil's America". It's a nice, quiet book about Buck O'Neil's experiences in baseball, and his experiences as an African-American living in the US during the time when he played baseball. It's a good book to ease a heart aching from a long season cut too short.

I woke up Tuesday morning and it was one of the first really dark mornings we've had this fall. I wondered what time it was, if I'd woken up too early, etc. I showered, ate, dressed, and headed out to my car, and the sky was dark and overcast, gloomy, unhappy, ready for winter. It's kind of amusing how the weather and the season coincided: an overcast gloomy morning, no sun in sight, and Rockies baseball has ended for the year.

It does sort of feel like our joy has left, the team and sport that get us all excited and giddy every summer, the sport that makes me suddenly get all snobbish to other sports fans. Now it's done, I feel like the guy in that Colorado state lottery ad, where he's at Invesco, and the Raiders fans make him go up top, and he sits down all dejectedly and defeated. That's how I feel right now, like I have to give up and go to the Pepsi Center or Invesco or something and slump down into a box seat to try and root for teams I really don't care about anymore (the Avs are somewhat an exception: I half-care about them) and join the teeming masses who just don't GET why I'm kind of bummed out now, they're just ready to go root for another Denver team who's winning at the moment.

But it isn't the same, the Broncos, the Avs, the Nuggets - they're not the Rockies. The Broncos, Nuggets, Avs - they seem to be built on hype, on loud noises, on good will from championships past. Sure, we had 2007, but how much of the bandwagon dissipated as the festering horde of Red Sox fans crowded the seats around home plate chanting "RE-SIGN LOWELL! RE-SIGN LOWELL!"?

More past the jump

Such a contrast from 2007. (As I'm typing this, The Way I Are by Timbaland just came up on my iPod.) Atkins is a shadow of his former self, Hawpe sat, Fogg watched, and Jamey Carroll is whiling the days away in Cleveland.

Instead, we have the future of Colorado Outfield Dominance in Gonzalez, a raw but intriguing Fowler, and a gem of a quiet star in Seth Smith, not to mention hope for Ian Stewart. The bullpen today is filled with strikeout artists and specialists, a pitcher for every situation. The bench features 2007 starters and Jason Giambi. It's more complete, deeper, and more dangerous.

We need to be ready to move on. Rocktober is going to be our gimmick for decades to come, but the Rocktober crew has more or less headed down the trail. This new generation of players is here, and these are the guys that are going to carry us to glory.

The thing is, the 2009 postseason, for me, wasn't Rocktober. I mean, sure, that's what all the signs and the newspapers and the towels and street signs said, that it was Rocktober, but this really wasn't Rocktober to me. To me, Rocktober was the absolute magic and heart and gumption and whatever forces of nature and the supernatural shoved us through the month of September and caused us to sweep our way to the World Series.

Rocktober was the first time in years that Rockies fans could watch a game any given day and expect to win, rather than simply hope and then be surprised. Rocktober was the little guy finally fighting back. Rocktober wasn't sustained success, that's just the Rockies. Rocktober was this club bursting into a scene where we didn't belong and saying "Hey, you'd best watch out, because we're coming".

Rocktober was the proof that O'Dowd's plan worked. A nearly homegrown roster catching absolute fire and sweeping their way to the World Series. Rocktober was about the first wave of guys who really weren't supposed to make it, who would need one revision to bring up the Fowlers and the Stewarts and Jimenezes. Then we'd make it. This was the roster that played so well for about half the season to make up for a poor beginning, and then finding themselves behind the pack, ignited everything they had left and inexplicably kept on winning.

Rocktober was a garbage sac fly in the 13^th inning. Rocktober was a slapped pinch-hit single through the 1B hole by a power hitting bench player to score a runner from 3B. Rocktober was a 3-run shot in pouring October rain. Rocktober was a headfirst slide. Rocktober was "they just...don't...lose" and they didn't. It was a team from the moon who had just installed a humidor who played world-class defense and nobody knew much else about them. A Canadian soft-tossing southpaw, 2 rookies, and a Dragon Slayer who seemed to find the W against the cream of the competition. Superstition, speed, camaraderie, controversy: that's Rocktober.

"But the Rockies are in the postseason - isn't that Rocktober?" Well, I guess it can be. When the jumbotron is coaching the fans to cheer "ROCK...TOBER" to loud beats, it feels as if the people in marketing grabbed the creative nickname that seemed to materialize from excitement alone in 2007 and now they're flooding the Denver sports market with this slogan as if this were an election year for a postseason berth. Whatever happened to "GO...ROCKIES"?

2007 was a magical season. 2009 was a deserved season. But it almost seemed as if those in charge were working to make 2009 reclaim the magic of 2007. Atkins at 3B. Yorvy behind the plate. Morales in the bullpen.

But it's just not the same. Holliday was Bucknering up another series. Francis and Corpas were on the DL. Kaz Matsui was golfing. That magic just wasn't there, and it's the kind of magic you just can't recreate, no matter how many towels you hand out and no matter how many places you paste the word Rocktober around town.

I'm not really advocating that the slogan Rocktober not be used anymore. I'm not. It's fun. It's a word the nation recognizes and Denver rallies around. But clinching the playoffs 3 days out and having meaningless games (relative to a postseason berth) takes some of the fire out, the momentum. No, friends, what we saw in October of 2009 was the Colorado Rockies. Not Rocktober. The Rockies who lost in 4 were the Real Deal. We got there legitimately, and we were beaten legitimately.

It sounds trite, but this is what real teams do. They work hard, they play hard, they win some, they lose some. We just had the best season in franchise history, the pitching staff we've been dreaming of for years, where our #5 was actually our #5, and not our #2. A legitimate closer, despite his late collapse. Midseason trades that fortified the roster this year, not next year. Desperation moves to keep the rotation in order and keep us winning. This team played and was run like a real team is, a winning team. This wasn't Rocktober.

No, Rocktober is a thing of legend. Something to tell your kids about, how a team of young players with a few mixed-in veterans, some bordering on washed up already, some just starting their careers. rookies, journeymen, and a man whose mother petitioned God for a win. That's Rocktober. It made a splash, made us an anomaly that could improbably resurrect and inexplicably win. Now we're a team poised to remain a yearly threat to play again.

So what do I call this? This thing our team is now?

I call it successful.

It's Tuesday afternoon now. I just boarded the AF bus, not 24 hours after the loss. I rode the mall ride, and without surprise, I saw roughly zero people wearing Rockies gear, about as much as I'd expect to see any day. As the AF emerges from the Market Street Station's underground garage, I glance out the window. The light poles have CU Football banners on them, and the town is back to regular downtown colors, no longer a purple festival.

I crack open my book to spend a bit of time learning about how much Buck O'Neil loved Jazz music. The bus rumbles past a few shaded buildings, and we approach Auraria Parkway. As I look back toward Coors Field, I squint a bit at the reflected glare off of a street sign, and lower my sunglasses off of my forehead over my eyes.

It's just too bright out there.

from Photobucket user UNCBears21

WAR Lords of the Diamond: Greatest. Rockies. Ever.

Jabberwocky — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:30:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Todd Helton features prominently in any conversation about the greatest Rockies ever.

Browse more photos »

Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP I SP

Now that I've discussed the greatest Rockies ever by position according to WAR, I'll summarize my data and reveal my All-Time Rockies squad. In all, 224 Rockies have been weighed, measured, and (mostly) been found wanting in this quest, yet some have clearly risen above the rest.

Of course, due to the fact that the Rockies' history is only 17 years old, there isn't exactly a deep pool of players to choose from in this study. Therefore, I will be ranking all players who produced a career WAR of over 3 wins at a position for the Rockies or was a significant player for the team.

Here was my methodology:

1. I only used stats accumulated when they played for the Rockies.

2. The categories used were: career with Rockies, best three consecutive years with Rockies (establishes average production), and best single year with the Rockies (establishes peak production).

3. If the players spent less than three years with the Rockies, their career total was used in the other metrics as well. If the player was at different positions for different years, the player would be considered for the position in which he had the most starts (or greatest impact, at my discretion) for the Rockies.

4. The players were ranked in each category. Those ranks were added and averaged out--the lowest average rank was the most valuable Rockie.

5. The data used was only for seasons that were completed (e.g. not 2009).

Remember, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fantastic Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of WAR's calculation for position players and pitchers. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

After the jump I'll outline the greatest (and worst) Rockies squad as found using my methodology, as well as the best single year performances.

The All-Time Greats

Remember, this ranking takes into account best career WAR, best consecutive 3-year WAR period, and best single WAR year to accurately capture a player's greatness and to mitigate somewhat the fact that WAR is a counting stat and is heavily influenced by longevity. Slash stats are (Career WAR / 3 Year WAR / 1 Year WAR).

Starting Lineup

C: Jeff Reed (1996-1999) (4.3 / 4.6 / 1.8)
1B: Todd Helton (1997-2008) (53.9 / 21.7 / 8.8)
2B: Eric Young (1993-1997) (9.5 / 7.3 / 3.8)
3B: Garrett Atkins (2003-2008) (11.1 / 10.8 / 6.4)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2006-2008) (6.2 / 6.2 / 5.6)
LF: Matt Holliday (2004-2008) (16.9 / 15.9 / 7.3)
CF: Juan Pierre (2000-2002) (3.0 / 3.0 / 2.4)
RF: Larry Walker (1995-2004) (44.1 / 18.3 / 9.0)

Bench

Vinny Castilla (1993-1999, 2004, 2006) (15.1 / 10.1 / 4.5)
Ellis Burks (1994-1998) (10.8 / 10 / 7.6)
Andres Galarraga (1993-1997) (11.3 / 6.3 / 3.6)
Jamey Carroll (2006-2007) (5.1 / 5.1 / 4.3)
Chris Iannetta (2006-2008) (3.2 / 3.2 / 2.7)

Batting Order

1. Eric Young
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Matt Holliday
6. Garrett Atkins
7. Juan Pierre
8. Jeff Reed

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1997-2001) (9.9 / 9.3 / 5.3)
SP2: Aaron Cook (2002-2008) (10.3 / 7.3 / 3.4)
SP3: Jason Jennings (2001-2006) (9.1 / 6.6 / 4.2)
SP4: Kevin Ritz (1994-1998) (6.6 / 6.5 / 3.9)
SP5: Armando Reynoso (1993-1996) (7.6 / 5.0 / 3.1)

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Steve Reed (1993-1997, 2003-2004) (9.2 / 5.6 / 3.1)
Brian Fuentes (2002-2008) (8.8 / 5.2 / 2.7)
Curtis Leskanic (1993-1999) (5.2 / 3.2 / 3.1)
Bruce Ruffin (1993-1997) (5.7 / 4.6 / 1.9)
Jerry Dipoto (1997-2000) (4.7 / 4.4 / 2.1)
Jose Jimenez (2000-2003) (4.2 / 4.2 / 2.3)
Darren Holmes (1993-1997) ( (3.8 / 3.6 / 2.3)

Analysis

The construction of this team historically tells us that in the last few years the Rockies have played several of the best position players in team history (three of them are on this squad). After 2009 is completed Chris Iannetta will supplant Jeff Reed at starting catcher while several other players shoot up the leader boards.

From a pitching standpoint, the bullpen is heavily comprised of guys that were in the 1997 bullpen (five of them!). After this year not much will change as far as relievers go, but Ubaldo Jimenez's stellar 2009 will place him in the rotation as the second-ranked starting pitcher. It should be noted that Ellis Burks would probably supplant Juan Pierre in center field.

The team that is best by my metrics is by and large the best team by Career and 3 Year WAR totals too, but there are definitely some interesting outlier seasons by others that shake up the best single year roster.

The Greatest Single Season Performances

Collected below is an unholy amalgamation of the best individual seasons by position in Rockies history. If these players had all produced at this level in the same year, they would have produced 67.2 batting WAR (20.4 off the bench), 19.2 relief WAR, and 22.1 starting pitching WAR for a total of 88.1 WAR. This team should statistically win 136.7 games out of 162 (a replacement level team would win 48.6, or 30% of its games).

Starting Lineup

C: Chris Iannetta (2008) 2.7
1B: Todd Helton (2000) 8.8
2B: Jamey Carroll (2006) 4.3
3B: Garrett Atkins (2006) 6.4
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2007) 5.6
LF: Ellis Burks (1996) 7.6
CF: Juan Pierre (2001) 2.4
RF: Larry Walker (1997) 9.0

Bench

Matt Holliday (2007) 7.3
Vinny Castilla (1998) 4.5
Kazuo Matsui (2007) 4.1
Eric Young (1996) 2.7
Jeff Reed (1998) 1.8

Batting Order

1. Jamey Carroll
2. Ellis Burks
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Garrett Atkins
6. Troy Tulowitzki
7. Chris Iannetta
8. Juan Pierre

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1999) 5.3
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2004) 4.7
SP3: Jason Jennings (2006) 4.2
SP4: Marvin Freeman (1994) 4.0
SP5: Kevin Ritz (1995) 3.9

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Gabe White (2000) 3.3
Steve Reed (1997) 3.1
Curtis Leskanic (1995) 3.1
Brian Fuentes (2005) 2.7
Manuel Corpas (2007) 2.4
Jose Jimenez (2000) 2.3
Darren Holmes (1995) 2.3

Analysis

Obviously I'd play Holliday in left field and shift Burks to center, improving the lineup (and overall WAR) immensely, but those were the best players by WAR at their position in one season. From this year's team, Carlos Gonzalez is close to surpassing Juan Pierre, while Ubaldo Jimenez will jump atop the starting rotation, where he will perhaps be joined by Jason Marquis (depending on how his last start turns out). I'll talk more about this next week.

Rockies fans have been privileged enough to witness in the last couple of years some of the greatest seasons ever--Smith's WAR calculations are park-adjusted, so when Coors Field changed due to the humidor's implementation so did the formula for calculating WAR. As a result, early pitchers get a large boost (and hitters a large detraction) relative to today's players because of the pitcher's hell that was early Coors Field/Mile High.

And finally...

Single Season Goats

This would be the worst single-season lineup the Rockies could put on the field (worst players starting). The sad thing is that many of them did play a large role for the Rockies. The damage: -15.9 hitting WAR (-11.2 from the starting lineup), -7.5 relief WAR, and -8.5 SP WAR for a total of -31.9 wins above replacement. This team should statistically win 16.7 games out of 162.

Starting Lineup

C: Kirt Manwaring (1997) -2.1
1B: John Vander Wal (1997) -0.7
2B: Luis A. Gonzalez (2006) -1.0
3B: Vinny Castilla (1993) -0.5 [soon to be supplanted by Garrett Atkins, 2009 (-0.9)]
SS: Neifi Perez (1998) -1.2 (and yes, he played all 162 games)
LF: Dante Bichette (1999) -2.8
CF: Choo Freeman (2004) -1.2
RF: Brad Hawpe (2008) -1.7

Bench

Cory Sullivan (2006) -1.1
Steve Finley (2007) -1.1
Jason Bates (1996) -0.9
Jeff Baker (2007) -0.7
Gary Bennett (2002) -0.9

Batting Order

1. Neifi Perez
2. Choo Freeman
3. Vinny Castilla
4. Dante Bichette
5. Brad Hawpe
6. John Vander Wal
7. Kirt Manwaring
8. Luis A. Gonzalez

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Dennis Stark (2004) -1.9
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2005) -1.9
SP3: Brian Rekar (1996) -1.6
SP4: Andy Ashby (1993) -1.6
SP5: Mike Hampton (2002) -1.5

Bullpen (in order of suckitude):

Shawn Chacon (2004) -1.7
Todd Jones (2003) -1.4
Mike Dejean (1999) -1
Darren Holmes (1994) -0.9
Jose Acevedo (2005) -0.9
Jeremy Affeldt (2006) -0.8
Javier Lopez (2004) -0.8

Analysis

This team is horrible, but some of the names on the list were just having a statistical anomaly of a bad season or were getting their first look at major league hitting/pitching. In fact, several went on to have nice careers. Several of them did not, and for good reason.

Next week, I'll look at how the 2009 Rockies performed individually and as a team from a value standpoint.

Friday Rockpile: Rockies look to pull themselves back up as Matt Holliday makes his return to Coors

Russ Oates — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 12:45:06 -0000

Colorado Rockies slip up again in loss to San Diego - The Denver Post
True or false?

The Rockies simply can't handle prosperity.

Krieger: Rockies skipper may have overmanaged in latest loss to Padres - The Denver Post
I don't believe "may have" needs to be in the above.

Morales loses his control - The Denver Post

A scout at Coors Field said Morales was rushing his delivery and his arm is dragging, leading him to aim the ball.

Good word all around on rehabbing Rox | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Jeff Francis and Manny Corpas both pitched yesterday in instructs. Francis usually threw his fastball around 86 mph and as high as 89 mph in 47 pitches over three innings. Corpas had his secondary pitches working, but has some work on his fastball left. Troy Renck believes that Corpas will be shopped this offseason.

Holliday cheers: Former Colorado Rockie returns to Coors Field as a St. Louis Cardinal - The Denver Post
Welcome back to Coors Field, Matty. Just don't do anything to hurt the Rockies.

Cook gets start in bid to make playoff rotation - The Denver Post
Make it a hell of a return, Cookie. We need it. The Official Site has more on Cook's return.

Helton not looking too far forward in race | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Todd Helton staying in the here and now as playoffs approach.

Baseball Prospectus | Prospectus Today: Post-season Bullpens
For subscribers only, but Joe Sheehan ranks the possible postseason bullpens by WXRL. The Rockies are 20th in total WXRL, and Sheehan notes that this "undersells the Rockies a bit." He says something nice about how the Rockies bullpen has changed over the season.

Purple Row interviews Marc Gustafson, Part 3

RockiesMagicNumber — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 15:00:35 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

The Present, The Future

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In our final installment of our interview with Rockies Director of Player Development, Marc Gustafson, we round out our questions about the draft and the talent acquired, and ask Marc to give some reflections on the Major League club and how his involvement has shaped the product on the field today.

You can read Part 1 and Part 2 to give you the full experience.

On behalf of Purple Row, we'd like to take a moment and thank the Colorado Rockies and Marc Gustafson for taking time on the road to speak with us and give us some insight into the club's operation, as well as Jay Alves and the people that made this interview possible.

And as always, viewers like you.

RMN: Now, going back to our recently drafted players, we have Chris Balcom-Miller in Casper. We had a user go up to a Ghosts game, and he was able to scout him a bit for us. We're hearing a lot of gopher-killing rumors. Do you envision pushing him to Modesto next season, or will he be a slower developer?

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, I think there's a definite conversation we'll be having about him. We try to stay pretty patient with the guys and where they move, and there's nothing wrong with sending someone to a level, and having a lot of success, and THEN moving them. He'll be a hot topic of conversation because of the great start he's having. He's a little bit like Brandon Hynick - Brandon pitched in Casper when he first came out, and did a very great job. Balcom-Miller has a little more arm strength, but definitely pounds the strike zone. Very aggressive, they're not scared. So that's a good situation when you're looking at Balcom-Miller coming out, whether it be Asheville or Modesto.

RMN: Jordan Pacheco: Does he stay as a catcher?

Marc Gustafson: Yes, yes, yes. He's done a tremendous job. We've taken a guy from the middle infield position and put him behind the plate. The way he can receive the ball and run a ballgame, he has confidence behind the plate, he has leadership ability. To have that type of potential behind the plate, we're real happy to have him.

RMN: It's good to hear that have people who have a good sense of the game down there, not ALL raw talent. Now, let me jump to the big name here, Tyler Matzek. Matzek was obviously a huge signing for the club, both in terms of having a top-notch prospect in the system as well as a good PR move for people following the draft. With an advanced young pitcher who already has command of a couple of solid pitches, how is the organization anticipating him starting out? Is he looking to be on the fast track, or what are you guys thinking about him now?

Marc Gustafson: Well, right now we're just getting him settled in. He's on a throwing program in Casper. He hasn't pitched competitively since his High School career came to an end. We're just building up his arm strength and taking it slow. He will not pitch in a game this year for Casper, but he will be ready to pitch in the Instructional League in Tucson. Once he gets settled in, and we get to know him a little bit, he gets to know us, obviously the sky's the limit for him; he's a premium talent. We'll be patient. He's probably looking at an Asheville situation next year to start out, see where it takes him. Right now we're just getting him settled in to the Rockies' system.

RMN: We were looking forward to 2010 anyhow. Now, on draft day, how much was Matzek even talked about as a possibility before the draft happened and he fell to #11?

Marc Gustafson: Well, we didn't think there was any way we were going to have a chance to even select him. Our guys had him very high on the board, and what an awesome opportunity for us to select a left-hander that has the talent that he possesses. When he was there, Bill Schmidt didn't hesitate. He went after the most talented guy on the board.

RMN: How do you balance your selections? How do you balance between filling organizational needs and simply taking the best player available?

Marc Gustafson: Well, early on, there's no doubt about it: You take the best player available. When you get down into day 2, day 3 of the draft, then you're bringing up the topic of organizational needs. Billy Schmidt and his guys, they spend many, many hours talking about them and where they fit in on the board. That board is set up for a reason, and if they're available, and it's not a situation of a medical concern or a psychological concern, or any issue like that, then they're going to select them.

RMN: Does Bill Schmidt make the final decision on Draft Day?

Marc Gustafson: Yes.

RMN: Now that we have a humidor somewhat equalizing things in Coors Field - we've seen a lot of pitchers coming in the early rounds - should we expect to see less stress on pitching in the first round of the draft in future years, as it's been a tendency since the franchise's inception.

Marc Gustafson: Well, early on when we first started, when Pat Daugherty was our scouting director and Bob Gebhardt the GM, you have to try and find guys that are going to move quick and you have to select for organizational needs, and they did a fine job of that. As we've evolved throughout the years, and we've got some more tools in the cupboard, if you will, and we've got some depth, we're definitely going to try to balance the approach and take a very very close look a pitching mechanics and deliveries, things of that nature, and figure out who doesn't have the best projection, and who has the best potential. We don't even think about the Coors Field factor internally, that doesn't even come up. That's just something...those are the old days for us, personally, and I think I can speak for everybody else on that matter. It's time, it's patience, you've got to develop and hang in there, and really work hard at it. Rolando Fernandez, you have to give a lot of credit to Rolando and his staff in Latin America. You know, Ubaldo Jimenez, [Manuel] Corpas, and Franklin Morales, and now we're looking at [Samuel] Deduno, [Jhoulys] Chacin, [Esmil] Rogers, when you mix in those guys that Bill Schmidt and his scouting department come up with, and that's really a neat situation.

RMN: Now, a lot of the mainstream media doesn't seem to understand that Coors Field doesn't play as it did in the 90s. Do the pitchers in the minors still look at Coors Field as being the Terrordome?

Marc Gustafson: Absolutely not. I always laugh, too, because I still hear it. You turn on ESPN or whatever the show is, and everybody says that you can't pitch at Coors Field. I just don't get it. It doesn't work out that way. If you look at the numbers, and I'm sure you have, Coors Field - you'd rather pitch at Coors Field rather than Citizen's Bank Park, I would think.

RMN: Or Chase, for that matter.

Marc Gustafson: Or Chase, or a lot of different places. No, we don't talk about it internally. We don't even think about it, to be quite honest with you. We're going to teach guys how to pitch down in the strike zone. We're going to make sure they can command the fastball, we're going to make sure they have feel for a changeup. We want guys that are tough, we want guys that have heart, we want guys that compete. That's kind of the philosophy when we look at pitching.

RMN: I have to say, it speaks strongly to the scouting and the development to say that this is - I would argue this is the best pitching the Rockies have ever seen.

Marc Gustafson: It's been pretty solid, you bet.

RMN: I only have a couple more, and we'll let you get back to your day. Dexter Fowler: Obviously a fan favorite now, speedy guy, I met him at Spring Training in Tucson in 2008, seemed like a really friendly guy. You've obviously seen a lot of Dexter Fowler coming up in the minors. What do you feel the next step for his development is? We see a lot of 5-tool potential in him, what's the next step for him?

Marc Gustafson: Well, I'll go back to Day 1 when Dexter came into the system; you've seen it, as you've seen him evolve. It's just the physical strength and maturity; it's the belief that he belongs on the field every day. You're taking a premium athlete and you're running him out there as often as you can. The more he's out there playing, the more ABs he gets, the more confident he gets. Confidence, with a guy like that, sky's the limit for his talent and his potential impact in the game. It's been wonderful to see. I remember when he first started switch-hitting; he could barely hit the ball out of the cage left-handed. Now, you're starting to see him (before he got the knee injury), he was driving the ball the other way. He had power pulling the ball as a left-handed hitter. It's been fun to see his development. Mainly, it's just his strength and being out there every day, and his confidence.

RMN: Well we've definitely seen the improvement as the season's gone on. A lot of the people have settled down on his rookie foibles, and we're really excited to see him and Gonzalez roaming Center Field.

Marc Gustafson: That's a nice combination. Going back to one of your original questions: to be able to acquire Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street. What a wonderful story that is, because with Carlos, you're looking at the same type of potential impact as Dexter, in a 5-tool type player. Those two out in the OF together...I'd be hard pressed to come up another set of outfielders who can cover as much ground as those guys.

RMN: We know that Brad Hawpe has a bit of trouble with RF range, and I don't mean to speak disparagingly, but it's good to know that we have a little bit of insurance with guys able to cover a lot of ground and cover the gaps well. Now, looking at the major league club, and this is just kind of a fun question for you, out of all the talent, and most of it being homegrown, who was the hottest prospect coming up when they were a prospect?

Marc Gustafson: Wow. That's a tough one. Oh man, there've been so many special memories for me as the guy who introduces them. That's the best part of the job, when you get to meet them, and when you get to see them at the big league level. I think Tulo - obviously Tulo went pretty quick through our system. Just watching him on the backfields in Spring Training and during Instructional League, you knew there was something very very special there. He'd be a highlight for me. Obviously Dexter would be a highlight. Jimenez. Ubaldo Jimenez, to see him evolve into what he's become, that's certainly a great memory for us in the minor league system. That's tough, I don't think I could single out one specific guy.

RMN: Which is very fair. It's very encouraging to see Ubaldo really filling out that talent he has. For years we heard "Oh, this Ubaldo Jimenez kid, he's going to be all the big deal" and then in '07 he was struggling in AAA, and we thought "Oh no" and he's proved every doubter wrong.

Marc Gustafson: Right, right. That's a great point that you make, and it brings up maybe Eric Young Jr., and they said, "You couldn't do it" and now look at him; he's there. Matt Daley, a non-drafted player, he's up there. There's just so many wonderful memories of guys who've spent their time in the minor league system and they believed in themselves, they worked hard, and they got there.

RMN: Speaking of Eric Young, we hear the reports from FSN and the Post: How active has Eric Young Sr. REALLY been in making sure that Eric Young Jr. has his nose to the grindstone?

Marc Gustafson: I don't think words can describe how hard this guy works, and what he has done in the minor league system to prepare himself each and every day. I have to give his father the credit. He brought him up, he taught him the work ethic, he taught him the ability to focus each and every day. EY Jr. grew up in that type of atmosphere, and you know, the apple doesn't fall far from the tree when you compare the two. Really a special family and a great story.

RMN: We have a lot of fans who were original Blake Street Bombers fans who've fallen a bit out, and don't know the farm as well, and when they say "Eric Young's playing again?!" and we say "No, no, it's his son! And he looks just like his daddy!"

Marc Gustafson: Haha, it's pretty neat.

RMN: I have one last question for you, Marc, and we'll call it quits here. What is your proudest moment of personal direct involvement on the organization? It's a bit of a broad question, but let's give you some credit.

Marc Gustafson: I think so far, throughout these years, when we got to the World Series, and we looked out on the field, and they were all playing together, and it wasn't long before that they were all playing together in the minor league system. Probably the proudest moment was when we were all together as a player development staff and a scouting staff and we were up in the Mountain Ranch club together as a group, and we were looking out on the field at World Series competition, and they were a bunch of the guys that spent a lot of hard work and time with, and that was probably my proudest moment.

RMN: It makes us proud to be Rockies fans. We pride ourselves - the real fans - as being very patient, and we feel like we're rewarded just as much by saying "I remember that guy when he struck out 4 times as a rookie, and now he's in the All Star Game."

Marc Gustafson: That's a neat feeling. Like I mentioned, when you're with your guys together watching and giving high fives and clapping and cheering, and you're so proud of them, when you see them compete at the highest level. That's a neat feeling.

RMN: Well, I think that's all I have for right now, Marc-

Marc Gustafson: I can't believe you didn't ask me about Christian Friedrich!

RMN: Well, I actually did have a question about Friedrich! [Marc laughing] But we veered away from a bit, and I didn't-

Marc Gustafson: No, I'm teasing you. He's done awesome. His numbers speak for themselves. He's a premium left handed starter, he's going to be in the mix very very soon.

RMN: We're very excited about Christian as well. Especially watching him dominate Asheville and Modesto.

Marc Gustafson: He has done a great job.

RMN: Marc, I really want to thank you for taking the time to speak with us.

Marc Gustafson: It's been my pleasure, thanks.

Tracy Ringolsby reaches out to the Row to explain DL, playoff rosters

Poseidon's Fist — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 01:25:06 -0000

The Rockies have been to the playoffs twice in 18 seasons. It would make sense that Rockies fans would be unfamiliar with rules regarding playoff roster construction.

With the Rockies in good playoff position and Dexter Fowler headed to the disabled list, there were a lot of questions and confusion, understandably. Tracy Ringolsby emailed me, by his own initiative, in an effort to clear up the rules for all of our readers. The following is straight from the Cowboy.

"The requirement to be on the post-season roster is that you are in an organization by Aug. 31."
"If you have 25 players on active roster and no one on DL, those 25 are your post-season players."
"If a team has [X number of players] on the DL, it expands the choices they can make for filling out the post-season roster. At the end of the season, when the team puts together its post-season roster, they can replace any player on the disabled list at season's end with a player who was in organization as of Aug. 31, even if he wasn't in the big leagues. For example, Mark Redman replaced Rodrigo Lopez, I believe it was, in 2007."
The preceding rule makes no dichotomy between players on the 60-day DL and 15-day DL. Any member of the DL can be replaced by any player in the organization by August 31.
"You could add someone not on the 40-man, although that would be unusual because if you felt he could help you it would seem likely you had him around in September in some type of role."

Amoeba mentioned in the comments of the Dexter Fowler fanshot that any member sent down could be called up when rosters expand Sept 1, regardless of how long they were away from the big league team. Ringolsby clarifies that this is not the case:

"In recent years a couple adjustments were made regarding roster moves and Sept. 1."
"It used to be that a player sent to the minors could be called up as soon as rosters expanded, even if the player hadn't spent 10 days in the minors. But that is now changed and a player has to stay either 10 days or until the minor-league team's season is over, including the playoffs."
"It used to be that a player on the DL could be activated Sept. 1 even if he hadn't spent the full 15 days but the rules were changed so that you now are supposed to spend the full 15 days, according to MLB official I asked."

This means that Dexter Fowler will indeed be away from the Rockies for 15 days, making him available to return September 9 in the third game of a home series vs. the Reds. Most important to note, the Rockies currently have seven players on the disabled list, giving them seven spots to "play with."

Colorado Rockies Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Aaron Cook	shoulder	08/22/2009
Dexter Fowler	knee	08/25/2009
Juan Rincon	elbow	07/31/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Jeff Francis	shoulder	03/27/2009
Taylor Buchholz	elbow	03/27/2009
Manuel Corpas	elbow	07/21/2009
Alan Embree	leg	07/11/2009

Tuesday Rockpile: The Rise of Troy

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 15:24:51 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Troy has gone from Dirtbag to King.

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Prince Troy, Queen Helen and I salute you

Sadly, I missed last night's game. I was out celebrating the landing of a new job and didn't witness a second, but I hear our shortstop had a pretty special night.

For the second straight night, the Rockies pounded Chicago pitching while abandoning Cubs all over the bases. But of course, that wasn't the story line. Troy Tulowitzki hit for cycle, becoming the fifth Rockie to hit for the cycle (all at home) and the eighth in Coors Field history. No other MLB park has seen more than five since 1995.

A quick glance at the Rockies history book shows Rockies fans were spoiled, witnessing four cycles in barely a two year span before Tulowitzki ended the home team's nine-year drought. Some other facts from Tulo's big day:

He was the first shortstop in MLB history to go 5-for-5 with 7 RBI.
He became the first NL player with an unassisted triple play and a cycle in his career. John Valentin of the Red Sox is the only AL player with the feat.
A prospective grand slam was called a foul ball and was the first replay reviewed utilized in a Rockies or Cubs game. Due to inconclusive replay, the call was sustained as a foul ball. Had it been a grand slam, ignoring the butterfly effect for fun, he would have still had the cycle, two home runs, and 9 RBI. No Blake Street Bomber ever achieved 9 RBI in a game.
As it stood, the 7 RBI was Tulowitzki's career high.
In truth, Tulo's triple was a function of the Cubs' continuously poor fielding and a bit of a homer scoring call. Guys don't triple down the left field line unless they are Dexter Fowler.
The cycle was the sixth in MLB this year and just the second in the NL.
Tulowitzki's ranks among NL MLB shortstops: HR (1st), RBI (3rd), BBs (2nd), SLG% (3rd), SBs (6th), wOBA (3rd), WAR (5th). All of that in spite of a .305 BABIP, which is below MLB average for shortstops and 35+ points below the only shortstops that challenge him in the above statistics. Good thing we didn't trade him. If he had a line drive rate even as good as Asdrubal Cabrera....

You can thank Brad Hawpe, who went 1-for-5, for the cycle feat. From Troy Renck:

The 24-year-old shortstop was a triple shy of the cycle. Hit a ball behind an outfielder, Hawpe said, and there's no stopping.

"I swear I wouldn't have gone if he hadn't said anything," Tulowitzki said. "It was craziest thing that has ever happened."

The way the nearly grand slam instant replay was handled inspired a new Mark Kiszla rant. He spends most of the piece stating that baseball is way beyond the curve technologically with these things and that they need to progress significantly. He then backtracks at the end, aided by a Tulo quote, saying "Human error is part of what makes sports such compelling drama...All we're asking is: If baseball is going to employ instant replay, at least try to do it right."

A USATODAY piece points out a trend Rockies fans have come to notice: as Tulo goes, so do the Rockies.

Other Rockies News

What kind of encore can the Rockies have for last night? How about an MLB starting debut for their top prospect? Jhoulys Chacin will get the start tonight against Ross Ohlendorf and the Pirates with a pitch count of 70-75. Jim Tracy actually had more confidence in Josh Fogg, and that's why Chacin gets the start. Should Chacin blow up and Tracy need to utilize a reliever to bite the bullet and pitch multiple innings, the Rox manager was more comfortable with the erstwhile Dragon Slayer taking on that job.

Courtesy of an article by Harry Pavladis of BtB from two weeks ago, here is a literal pitch tracking image of Jhoulys Chacin's pitches:

Aaron Cook saw a foot specialist for the sprain and inflammation in his right big toe - his push-off foot. Cook will throw Thursday in a bullpen session but for now seems on course to start Saturday in Florida

If Troy is Tulo Jit to Quit, then maybe Seth Smith is "Too Legit to Sit." Troy Renck addresses the Rockies almost too deep outfield issue in his latest mailbag, essentially stating that Ryan Spilborghs will move on after this year (big surprise) and that Seth Smith doomed himself by succeeding as a pinch-hitter.

Dexter Fowler made a tremendous catch last night, crashing into the wall in the ninth to make the grab, sealing a spot in ESPN's top plays. Such a play is scary for the Rockies centerfielder, who broke his right hand crashing into the wall. No broken bones this time. He bruised his knee and likely will sit tonight but should be fine.

Torrealba hits hot streak, gets chance to start - The Denver Post
Yorvit got consecutive starts for the first time since Iannetta was on the disabled list, nine weeks ago. He claims he is "200% mentally" right now. Also in the article, Greg Reynolds won't pitch anymore this year and will likely go to the instructional league after the season to overhaul his delivery. Manuel Corpas will play catch today in the first step for his attempted return next month.

In terms of scoreboard watching, the Dodgers beat the Giants last night, giving the Rockies sole possession of the wild card but keeping them 5.5 games out of first in the NL West. Randy Wolf faces Joe Martinez tonight at 8:05 MDT.