SB Nation - Matt Herges

Groundballs and the Bullpen: Do we need them?

RockiesMagicNumber — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:00:29 -0000

In the Rockpile today, Poseidon's Fist linked an article by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs discussing the Rockies' postseason rotation. He breaks it down to Ubaldo-Cook-DLR-Hammel, leaving Marquis off of the rotation. But it isn't just "lol marquis is teh awfuls," he raises a really good point:

Marquis would give the bullpen something it doesn't have right now - a guy to come in and get a ground ball in order to induce a DP or a play at the plate.

He raises a good point. The bullpen we have going into the postseason is very strikeout-heavy, pretty much bereft of groundballers. But is that such a bad thing?

Name	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
Aaron Cook	2.30	56.7%	24.7%	4.44	2.68	1.66	1.08	.282	1.41
Jason Marquis	2.00	55.6%	27.8%	4.75	3.31	1.44	0.64	.260	1.36
Ubaldo Jimenez	1.85	52.3%	28.2%	7.98	3.44	2.32	0.55	.232	1.24
Juan Rincon	1.41	47.7%	33.8%	8.77	7.01	1.25	0.70	.199	1.48
Jason Hammel	1.51	46.3%	30.8%	6.75	2.16	3.12	0.88	.290	1.39
Jorge de la Rosa	1.32	44.7%	34.0%	9.35	4.10	2.28	0.99	.251	1.4
Joe Beimel	0.83	40.4%	48.9%	6.60	2.40	2.75	1.20	.287	1.4
Matt Belisle	1.03	40.4%	39.4%	6.23	1.48	4.20	1.78	.284	1.29
Randy Flores	1.08	40.0%	37.1%	10.03	1.54	6.50	1.54	.299	1.37
Jose Contreras	1.25	39.5%	31.6%	9.00	4.50	2.00	1.29	.288	1.64
Huston Street	0.92	39.1%	42.4%	10.29	1.94	5.31	1.04	.202	0.93
Matt Daley	0.59	32.8%	55.5%	9.77	2.84	3.44	0.89	.223	1.13
Rafael Betancourt	0.60	29.5%	49.2%	10.13	1.88	5.40	0.38	.201	0.92
Franklin Morales	0.54	27.1%	50.5%	9.30	4.76	1.95	0.91	.233	1.39
Joel Peralta	0.50	24.7%	49.3%	8.03	4.38	1.83	1.09	.280	1.58

It's interesting to note that the strikeouts and groundballs seem to be inversely correlated, but that's a different study entirely.

Contrast this bullpen with the guys in 2007, just based on GB%:

Name	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
LaTroy Hawkins	3.03	63.3%	20.9%	4.72	2.6	1.81	0.98	0.25	1.23
Aaron Cook	2.46	57.9%	23.6%	3.31	2.39	1.39	0.81	0.275	1.34
Manny Corpas	2.03	57.4%	28.3%	6.69	2.31	2.9	0.69	0.223	1.06
Franklin Morales	2.07	54.9%	26.5%	5.95	3.2	1.86	0.46	0.235	1.22
Jeremy Affeldt	1.63	53.0%	32.5%	7.02	5.03	1.39	0.46	0.22	1.36
Matt Herges	1.22	46.5%	38.0%	5.55	2.77	2	0.74	0.199	1.01
Ubaldo Jimenez	1.26	46.4%	36.7%	7.46	4.06	1.84	1.1	0.232	1.3
Jeff Francis	1.19	44.4%	37.2%	6.9	2.63	2.62	1.04	0.278	1.38
Ryan Speier	1.38	41.5%	30.2%	6.5	4	1.63	0.5	0.283	1.56
Mark Redman	0.96	41.3%	42.9%	6.41	2.75	2.33	0.92	0.275	1.37
Josh Fogg	1.00	40.0%	40.0%	5.11	3.21	1.59	1.25	0.293	1.53
Brian Fuentes	0.83	35.9%	43.1%	8.22	3.38	2.43	0.88	0.21	1.13

Click past the jump and we'll break these numbers down.

In 2009, our 3 most extreme groundballers are all starting pitchers. Which makes sense, more or less, it helps mitigate damage via the double play and it keeps pitch counts down by getting more balls in play early in the count.

In 2007, however, 3.5 of our 5 most extreme groundballers were in the bullpen, and only Aaron Cook was in the rotation. Morales' role in the postseason was somewhat mixed, so that's why he gets the .5 for pen and .5 for rotation.

So in a casual sense, yes, we'd like a groundballer in the bullpen. But it seems, for the rationale listed above, that the groundballers are better suited to the rotation, as they are more prone to giving up hits (at least in terms of Marquis and Cook), and typically with bullpen duty, you want to get the outs as lock-downingly as possible, as to mitigate potential inherited damage.

So let's get a quick look at how 2007 and 2009 stack up in summation.

2007	GB%	K/9	tRA*
Rotation	45.71%	5.61	4.96
Bullpen	50.01%	6.46	4.44

2009	GB%	K/9	tRA*
Rotation	51.24%	6.69	4.33
Bullpen	38.48%	8.02	4.06

You could probably just look at that little chart and say "well, the Rockies just are a better pitching team this year" and I wouldn't argue with you at all. But it does seem that in sacrificing GB% for K/9, we made our pen better, and by further emphasizing GB% in the rotation, it made it better there as well.

The two pitchers I'd like to single out kind of embody the balance between the two measures presented: Ubaldo Jimenez and Manny Corpas.

I don't think I need to say much about Jimenez. 7.98 K/9 and 52.3% GB and he throws 700mph and he runs on clean burning biodiesel.

Corpas, however (and I'll keep this somewhat brief, I want to touch on his season more after we're all wrapped up with 2009), strikes out a decent amount, has excellent control of the strike zone (as in he never walks anyone), and still throws his slider very effectively. He also has a career GB% of 51.4%.

His sinker/2seamer/whatever we're calling it lost something this year, and there's a distinct chance we could chalk some of that up to a damaged elbow causing him to overthrow or something (this really isn't my area of expertise). He got hit a lot harder than we'd like to see, but I really think he'll rebound in 2010. He still gets a good number of ground balls, still doesn't give up many fly balls, and actually posted a lower FIP in 2009 than '08 or '07.

Frankly, and I know he was kind of awful this year, but I do think the pen missed having Corpas just for the different toolset he brought along. I mean, clearly we didn't miss him TOOOOOOOO much, but we had to rely on guys like Flores to come strike one LHB out (and he did do that pretty well: 11K to 1BB v LHB) when we had a jam to get out of. Season-long, yeah, Corpas was trouble, but situationally, he might still be a good tool to have around. But again, next season.

As for the original issue, having Marquis in the pen WOULD present us with a groundballing option, but I'm not 100% convinced I want to bring him into tight situations, especially with how wild his last start was in general. If you want a situational groundballer, you need a guy who can come in and paint corners with either a nasty changeup or a strong sinker, locating low and getting the big double play outs. I don't see Marquis being able to do that.

Mopup guy? Sure. 3 inning relief? Sure.

Situational groundballer? ehhhhhhh I wish we had Corpas still.

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Giants 10, Rockies 2: Another blowout by the bay inches SF closer to Wildcard

theoldgrizzlybear — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 05:42:16 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

I'm thinking about fighting this guy in a public place, like maybe a concert hall or something.

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Much of what has plagued the Rockies over the past couple of days reared its ugly head again tonight, and probably to an even greater extent. Colorado struck out nine more times and failed to get much of anything going on offense on their way to another bad loss at AT&T Park, a place where they've never fared well. As a result, the Giants creeped (literally - I mean, they did employ this guy for several years) to within 2.5 games of the Rockies in the NL Wildcard race.

Barry Zito baffled the Rockies once again, as the guy who is not known for his ability to get a punch out K'd nine hitters in seven innings. Meanwhile, despite racking up his own fair share of strikeouts (six in just 2.2 innings), Ubaldo Jimenez failed to step up when his club needed him to do so, allowing SEVEN runs on six hits and a couple of walks. Jimenez was doing alright velocity-wise, but left far too many pitches over the heart of the plate. The Giants, who seem to adjust very well, made him pay for it while the Rockies, who do NOT adjust well, continued to struggle against the soft-tossing Zito. Todd Helton had a rare awful night, going 0-for-3 with 3 backwards K's. Granted, not many other guys fared well, either, outside of Dexter Fowler, who had a couple of hits and reached on a walk, plus played some outstanding centerfield defense. Troy Tulowitzki hit his 26th home run of the year, as he was finally able to breakthrough against Zito. Matt Herges pitched two scoreless innings of relief, effectively keeping the Rox within eight runs.

Oh, and I hate Juan Uribe.

82 - 64

Games Back: 4.5

Streak: Lost 4

Games Left: 16

Stick around after the jump, if you dare, to see a win probability graph that closely resembles my blood pressure during the early stages of this game, RowCall, and tomorrow's starters.

via www.fangraphs.com

Row Call: oo_nrb, nodakroxfan, frightenedinmate#2, Rock Oax, FooMan, RockyMtnCat, RockiesMagicNumber, theoldgrizzlybear, ShadowPenguin, Rox Girl, befizzle, The Lodo Magic Man, WalkInRight, SDcat09, TuLoRocks2008, moomacher, pedalpusher, pierzynskirules, Russ, holly96, Nuggs Philosophizer, Maris6161, Jabberwocky, ddavis539, wolf213, controlled_slide, RdRnnr, RoxnSox09, MarshallMcCard, Duncan1800, butterfly, attackparrot, GoRoxGo, moose14, arpagamos, alex colfax, Digshot, squalene203, Sandlotkid8, 61maris, purplesocks, PinchHitLancePainter, AtkinsandTulofan, ejskater, Hollidayrain, nkrause, BroJB, DieHardRox, Latrock, realmenwearpurple, Colsportsfan, Kumar_98, Redhawk, Poseidon's Fist, feelgoodbynumbers, herewereyouwish, TripleT-Rox, fantasyfencing, lizardlad01, GoRockies!!, GoodOleBoyCo, billybob420, BittenAnkles, free7694

Tomorrow: Jorge De La Rosa (14-9, 4.37) vs. Matt Cain (13-5, 2.61)...same time, same place. ESPN will also have coverage of the game for those of you who are not in either team's TV market, as stated earlier. I, for one, am sick of watching Alanna Rizzo interview other teams' players after the game. We need a win damn it - be agressive, be confident, and just WIN, ROCKIES!

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Left Field)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 00:30:09 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Matt Holliday? Yeah, he's pretty good.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at the left field position.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how WAR is calculated.

Left Field, according to Tom Tango's positional adjustment scale, is given a rank of -7.5, meaning that left field is an easier position to play defensively relative to short stop or center field. The main responsibility of left fielders is not only to catch fly balls but also to deny baserunners advancing to an extra base. Therefore, arm strength and accuracy are desired traits of left fielders.

However, since left field in a ball park is usually the area that requires the shortest throws (and the smallest area to cover) of all the outfield positions, arm strength, accuracy, and range (speed, often) is usually placed on the back burner and offense (particularly power) is emphasized in the major leagues. That is why we get players like Manny Ramirez, old Barry Bonds, Ryan Braun, and Adam Dunn at the left field position.

Of course, there are several excellent defensive left-fielders (Carl Crawford comes to mind) today, and with an increased emphasis on improved defense we might see some better fielders slotted into left.

As for the Rockies, their top five players in games played at left field comprise the top five slots in the rankings...though not completely in order. This is the most productive positional group for the Rockies since the Todd Helton show at first base.

Left Fielders

Note: most if not all of these players played multiple outfield positions with the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker.

1. Matt Holliday

Career WAR: 16.9 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 15.9, 2006-2008 (1st)
Top Season: 7.3, 2007 (2nd)
Average Rank: 1.33

Big Daddy is atop this list, and for good reason. His 2007 season, in which he batted .340/.405/.607 with 36 HRs and 137 RBIs (winning the batting title and the RBI crown) with a .428 wOBA while providing excellent left field defense (TZ of 14) and 7.3 WAR, ranks as the second best season in Rockies history from a left fielder (more on that later). His fine 2006 (.326/.387/.586/.409, 34 HRs, 114 RBI, 3.8 WAR) and 2008 (.321/.409/.538/.418, 25 HRs, 88 RBI, 4.8 WAR) campaigns solidified Holliday as the cream of the crop in left field.

Holliday was acquired in the seventh round of the 1998 draft out of Stillwater High School in Oklahoma (where he also excelled as a quarterback) and well, you all know how he left--as a trade asset, Holliday kept giving to the Rockies, netting Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street, key components for the contending 2009 Rockies and hopefully beyond.

2.Ellis Burks

Career WAR: 10.8 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 10, 1996-1998 (2nd)
Top Season: 7.6, 1996 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.67

The reason that Burks is rated as a left fielder and not in center field (where he played more games) is that in his career season (1996) he played mostly in left field. That and the next best guy in these rankings would be Butch Huskey with 0.8. Burks was acquired by the Rockies through free agency on a five year, $18.6 million contract after the 1993 season after six excellent, though injury-plagued seasons (the first five with Boston). The injury bug continued to bite Burks during the 1994 campaign, limiting Ellis to 42 games played, and the rest of his Colorado tenure (though he played in over 100 games in his subsequent four seasons with the team).

Burks qualifies in my mind as a charter member of the Blake Street Bombers, bashing over 30 home runs in both 1996 and 1997, his healthiest years with the team. His 1996 season in particular was the greatest ever by a Rockies left-fielder. Burks put up an insane batting line of .344/.408/.639 with 40 HRs (93 XBH), 128 RBI, 32 SB, and an astounding .449 wOBA. Add in his stellar defense (TZ of 12) and Burks produced 7.6 WAR in 1996. Burks was elected to the All-Star game (one of two such selections in his career), won the Silver Slugger, and finished third in MVP voting.

Burks was traded at the 1998 trade deadline to the San Francisco for Daryl Hamilton and Jim Stoops. Ellis produced very well for the Giants and later the Indians (17.1 WAR after leaving Colorado) before retiring in 2004 with the Red Sox and getting a World Series ring.

Burks' career with the Rockies remains a little disappointing--if only the outfielder had been healthy, he could have surpassed even Holliday's accomplishments with the team.

3. Jay Payton

Career WAR: 3.8 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 3.8, 2002-2003 (3rd)
Top Season: 2.4, 2002 (4th)
Average Rank: 3.33

Jay Payton was only a Rockie for a short while--he was acquired at the 2002 deadline with Mark Corey and Robert Stratton from the Mets in exchange for John Thomson and Mark Little and stayed through the 2003 season--but he was very productive for the Rockies, enjoying the best years of his career in Colorado.

In particular, Payton played extremely well in August and September of 2002, posting a .335/.376/.606/.413 line over 181 PA--which combined with his solid defense came out to a WAR contribution of 2.4 for two months of work. Payton followed that up with a very solid 2003, in which he batted .302/.354/.512/.369 with 28 HRs and 89 RBI, after which time the Rockies granted Payton free agency.

4a. Todd Hollandsworth

Career WAR: 3.5 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.5, 2000-2002 (4th)
Top Season: 1.3, 2000 (5th)
Average Rank: 4.33

The 1996 Rookie of the Year winner, Todd Hollandsworth was traded to the Rockies at the 2000 trade deadline with a couple of prospects for Tom Goodwin and cash. Like Payton, the other Todd did well in his first two months with the team, batting .323/.365/.569/.396.

Hollandsworth only played 33 games in 2001 and after an average half season in 2002 he was traded at the 2002 trade deadline, when he was traded with Dennys Reyes to the Rangers for Gabe Kapler, Jason Romano, and cash.

Did you know? Hollandsworth is current Rockies reliever Matt Herges' brother-in-law.

4b. Dante Bichette

Career WAR: 1.8 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.3, 1993-1995 (5th)
Top Season: 2.7, 1993 (3rd)
Average Rank: 4.33

Bichette was acquired in the 1993 expansion draft from the Milwaukee Brewers and was the Rockies' starting left (or right) fielder until after the 1999 season, when he was traded to the Reds with cash for Stan Belinda and Jeffrey Hammonds.

In the mind of many Rockies fans, Alphonse Dante Bichette is the greatest ever Colorado left-fielder, or at least on par with Matt Holliday. Theoldgrizzlybear profiled Bichette in an edition of Rockies Retro. His 14th inning walk-off home run to christen Coors Field in 1995 is an integral piece of Rockies lore. Dante rocked a mullet and wore a "Bichette Happens" T-Shirt--what more was there to love? Heck, Bichette was a charter member of the Blake Street Bombers, belting over 20 HRs in each of his seven years with the team.

Then why is he ranked so low according to WAR? Bichette's 1.8 WAR with the Rockies would be about league average over one season, but it is horrible production over seven full campaigns. Dante is an excellent case study on where the advanced stats and the traditional baseball stats severely diverge.

Take Bichette's final season with the Rockies, 1999. Dante hit .298/.354/.541/.376 with 34 HRs and 133 RBI, yet the net result was a WAR of -2.8, by far the worst season that I've measure for any Rockies player. A lot of this has to do with Bichette's historically awful defense (TZ of -32!) and poor baserunning (-6 RAA), but not all. After all, Bichette finished with -1 batting runs above average--in other words, his production was below league average at the plate as well. From Sean Smith's glossary:

Bat runs - This is park adjusted linear weights batting runs, using customized weights at the team level to ensure that total runs credited to players will equal the actual runs scored for that team.

In other words, Bichette was the ultimate Coors Field creation, his gaudy numbers almost entirely the product of one of the greatest hitting environments in ML history. Bichette's best year outside of Colorado was 0.5 WAR. Actually, due to the park factor built into the WAR calculation, Bichette's best season was his first with the Rockies in 1993, in which his line of .310/.348/.526/.377 with 21 HRs and 89 RBI (plus average defense) at Mile High Stadium was worth 2.7 WAR.

Bichette's excellent first season was cancelled out by his awful last season. In other seasons with the Rockies he never had more than 0.7 WAR. Rockies fans, I'm sorry for soiling your good memories of Dante Bichette, but it needed to be said--he just wasn't that good.

Other Rockies left-fielders that posted positive WAR for the club are Butch Huskey (0.8), Jerald Clark (0.7), Ron Gant (0.5), and Seth Smith (0.4).

Now that I've ruined your positive perception of Dante Bichette, I'll be moving on to center fielders next week.

Statistical Metrics II – Pitching

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Yeah, I see him over there. He's VORPing really good today.

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Building on last week's discussion on the various statistical metrics we use to describe and value the production of batters, it's about time to look at the other side of the game: pitching.

Because there are so many variables to consider when valuing one pitcher versus another, pitching metrics are always a bit touchy. Most metrics will love traditional aces, what with their high strikeout potential, but others will differ on how good groundballers like Jason Marquis and Aaron Cook are. I hope we can shed a little light on what all the numbers and acronyms mean once again, and show those of you unfamiliar how we use them properly.

To begin, we'll kick it old school. Wins.

Now Wins are kind of a fun way to look back at a season and say "this guy did a good job for his team" after it's all over. The strength of the pitching win is that they can be a good way to reward a pitcher for an excellent performance. The downside is that they are an "ends justify the means" kind of stat to keep. For example, Ubaldo Jimenez pitched 8IP, struck out 9, gave up 2ER, and got the Win. However, the day before, Jorge De La Rosa pitched 6IP, gave up 6ER, and also got the Win.

Wins definitely correlate over a few seasons with the best pitchers, as the best tend to not allow many runs and pitch late into games. The issue with wins is that they tend to over reward pitchers who can pitch a lot of innings. My favorite example is Livan Hernandez, who tends to finish seasons with double digits in the W column, but is a noteworthy hit machine and a generally awful pitcher. Hernandez tends to get rewarded because he can hang on a long time and give his team a chance to crack into the opposition's bullpen.

Wins also zero predictive value from season to season. At best, they are a performance stat.

We can debate wins and losses all day, but that's a very brief reasoning on why I look past wins and losses as a measure of a pitcher's value.

Join us after the jump as we step into a pile of other pitching metrics.

ERA is the next logical metric to look at, and a very decent one to use in general. The upside of ERA is obviously that it gives you a good idea of how many runs a pitcher will allow in general. The downside is that it can over reward pitchers with an excellent defense or a majestic pitcher's park. ERA can tend to reflect the team's overall run preventing ability, with an obvious glut of the responsibility on the pitcher. Now, before you start typing your response on how pitching to your defense is a skill in itself, we'll talk about ERA discrepancies later on down the line.

An average ERA is 4.50, typically, while the MLB average this season is 4.35. Sub 3.00 and you're an all-star. Sub 2.50 and you're elite. Above 5 and you're a back end starter. Above 6.00 and you really shouldn't be pitching in the majors.

We all get ERA, and it's basically the easiest to just cite and not be too far off of base. You're not gonna see too many 2.00 ERA pitchers who are claimed to actually suck and 6.00 ERA pitchers claimed to actually be studs. Nobody should harp on anyone for citing ERA. But there are better metrics to view as we move forward.

To dial the metrics up a bit, there's also WHIP to take into consideration. WHIP is obviously just Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched. That's it. It's just a measure of the traffic a pitcher allows. And obviously, more traffic = bad. Average WHIP is 1.391. Whip below 1.2 is all-star level. WHIP below 1.1 is elite. WHIP below 1.00 is usually reserved for Mariano Rivera.

Before we touch on the more SABR slanted metrics, let's take a look at component stats. These are where the skills of a pitcher are really quantified.

K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 are the basics of the component stats, and they're complemented by GB% and FB%. Additionally, K/BB also works well with them, as it can provide context for a high BB/9 or a low K/9.

Now in terms of where these numbers fall in terms of where the league pitches is as follows: 6.9 K9, 3.5 BB9, 1.1 HR9, 2.01 K/BB. K/BB might be the more important thing to look at with a lot of pitchers, as a low K/9 complemented by a low BB/9 provides a solid K/BB, and you can rationalize a high BB/9 if your pitcher also carries a high K/9.

So rather than trying to put levels on K/9 and BB/9, we'll talk about K/BB instead. As mentioned above, 2.00 is about average. 1.50 is passable. 1.00 and you're probably not MLB caliber. 3.00 and you're a pretty dominating pitcher. 4.00 and up and you're downright elite.

Now the one component rate I don't lump up there is the HR/9 component. Because HRs in general are such a park-affected part of baseball, it's hard to just look at a HR/9 and say "good" or "bad". You kind of need to look at it based on your team and the environment you play in. As Rockies fans, I view a 1.00 as the line for someone really worth pursuing - in terms of starters at least. 2.00 is right out. 1.50 is pretty undesirable. A HR/9 of .70 or below is a solid pitcher.

So all these component numbers lead to a couple of things: firstly, you can use them to paint a picture of the pitcher in question, and secondly, they lead into the first of 2 SABR style metrics I'm going to review here.

FIP, for those SABR types following, is the logical followup to the component statistics. FIP is basically combining your K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 into one nice metric which mirrors ERA directly. An average FIP is the same as league average ERA, by definition. Now what FIP does is that it takes the balls in play out of the situation entirely (as a Home Run isn't really in play, fielders can't do anything to affect them) and rates a pitcher just based on what he does to the batter. Counting Rocks covered FIP a little while back, so you can get some more information on it there.

To really look at FIP, you need to compare it to ERA. For example, Matt Cain is sporting a 2.43 ERA right now - which is obviously excellent. However, Cain is backing that 2.43 ERA up with a 3.91 FIP. This isn't to say that Cain is pitching at a 3.91 ERA level, but it suggests that his strikeouts, walks, and homers are good enough on their own to put up a 3.91 ERA....does that make any sense? Don't look at FIP too literally, because for guys who pitch to contact a lot, it misses a major portion of their game.

How you need to look at FIP is really in the difference between FIP and ERA. In Cain's case, it would suggest that Cain is reaping the benefits of a good defense, a pitcher's park, and/or some good luck. Am I trying to say Cain sucks? Absolutely not. But what's interesting about Cain is that his past 4 seasons of FIP are (starting with 2009 and rolling backwards): 3.91, 3.91, 3.78, 3.96. Cain is pretty much the same pitcher this year as he has been the past 3 years, but this season, things are clicking better for him. Counting Rocks ran an analysis of Matt Herges in this same fashion, if you want to see a bit more of how we use components to evaluate a pitcher.

There is one extension to FIP, and that is xFIP, as presented by The Hardball Times. For all intents and purposes, xFIP is the same as FIP, but it normalizes the HR component of FIP to put everyone on a bit more of a level playing field. It should also be noted that xFIP has a pretty decent predictive value from year to year.

Moving forward, we have one final metric to discuss, and then I'll set you all loose to go all SABR on everyone out there.

tRA, again, covered by Counting Rocks, is yet another "looks like ERA" metric that has the same idea as FIP, but it actually takes regular balls in play into account in how it is scored. Basically, every event that happens in a game is worth a certain number of runs and a certain number of outs. What tRA does is sums up the number of "expected" runs and "expected" outs and then calculates it on a scale of 27 outs, or 9 innings. So basically, a ground ball is worth, say .90 outs, and a single is worth .75 runs. tRA is essentially the pitching equivalent of wOBA.

Another way to look a tRA is that it is a "report card" of how a pitcher did. When you see a pitcher who had an alright game, got a lot of ground balls, but also had a lot of balls squirt through and dying quails to no-man's land and such, but really pitched a better game than the final box score suggests, tRA will give them credit for the good things they did while appropriately penalizing them for the bad things they do. tRA, as compared to ERA, can do the same kind of thing that comparing ERA and FIP can do, but it will also take the hits and such into play.

For example, I have a guy who strikes out 4.5 guys per 9 innings, walks 2.5, and gives up .80 HR. FIP is gonna say this guy is pretty good. But what FIP misses is that the guy has a WHIP of about 1.70 because he's incredibly hittable in the meantime, gives up a pile of singles. tRA is gonna punish him for all those singles.

So to summarize all the fun we've had today, let's go ahead and check out a chart real quick:

	Elite	All Star	Average	Back-End	Adam Eaton
ERA/FIP/tRA	2.50	3.25	4.50	5.25	6.00+
WHIP	1.00	1.10	1.40	1.60	1.75
K/BB	4.00+	3.00	2.00	1.50	1.00

So that's it for this week, fair RowBots, I hope you have a good grasp of the advanced metrics now so when the statheads get on a roll, you're not left in the dark!

Rockies Draw First Blood

Eric Stephen — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 04:57:17 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Manny delivered the tying run in the ninth, but the Dodgers would go on to lose one inning later.

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Both starting pitchers pitched well, the Dodger offense showed some life with a ninth inning comeback, but in the end it wasn't enough as Troy Toulwitzki drove home the winning run with a single in the bottom of the 10th inning for a 5-4 Rockies' win.

The Dodgers scored single runs in the first and fourth innings, and Clayton Kershaw was cruising, allowing only a walk in his first three innings. However, the Rockies tied it with a home run by Dodger killer Brad Hawpe in the fourth inning. Kershaw had not allowed a home run in 90 innings, and his last home run allowed was also in Colorado, to Ryan Spilborghs on May 27.

Jason Hammel was on the money tonight, putting to rest the idea that he can't pitch at home. He allowed just the two runs in his seven innings, and was in line for the win after Clint Barmes launched a solo home run in the bottom of the seventh. The Rockies added an insurance run in the eighth, and the Dodgers' prospects looked bleak heading into the ninth inning, down 4-2.

However, the Dodgers battled back in the ninth. Juan Pierre led off with a pinch single, his eighth hit in his last 11 pinch at-bats, and was followed by a Rafael Furcal double. After a sacrifice fly by Kemp cut the lead to 4-3 and advanced Furcal to third base with one out, lefty Joe Beimel was brought in to face Andre Ethier. Ethier, who entered the game with six hits in 62 at-bats against lefties on the road, struck out, but Manny Ramirez drove home the tying run with a single off Matt Daley.

In the bottom of the tenth, as George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton sat unused in the bullpen, James McDonald was brought in to pitch. Carlos Gonzalez, who cut his left hand earlier this week and basically cannot swing a bat right now, was standing in the on deck circle when McDonald walked Ian Stewart to start the inning. The only thing Gonzalez can do is bunt, and the Dodgers played right into his hands by walking the leadoff batter. To make matters, worse Gonzalez was safe after a botched fielding attempt by McDonald, Loney, and Hudson. After Omar Quintanilla struck out, Todd Helton was walked intentionally to load the bases with one out for Tulowitzki, in the hopes of getting a double play.

To sum up the bottom of the tenth inning, here was the situation:

Due up for the Rockies: LHB Stewart, LHB Gonzalez, LHB Quintanilla, LHB Helton
Players left on Rockies bench: RHB Yorvit Torrealba, RHB Matt Murton
Pitcher's spot for the Dodgers: due up eighth in the top of the 11th

If there was ever a time to bring in George Sherrill -- LHB .117/.169/.150 against him this year, .163/.225/.265 career, by the way -- this was it.

The division lead is now down to two games. Randy Wolf faces off against Josh Fogg, who has pitched out of the bullpen all year. Look at it this way: at least Broxton and Sherrill will be well-rested out of the back of the bullpen!

WP - Matt Herges (1-0): 1 IP, 1 strikeout

LP - James McDonald (3-3): 0.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 run, 2 walks (one intentional), 1 strikeout

Box Score

Rockies 5, Dodgers 4: More mile-high magic propels Rox to fourth straight win

theoldgrizzlybear — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 04:42:56 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Hammel Time was in full effect tonight.

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Rocktaugust!^TM

Just joking. But, in all seriousness, this month - as of late, especially - is playing out wonderfully so far. Troy Tulowitzki's bases-loaded single in the bottom of the tenth inning gave the Rockies their second straight walk-off victory - the first time the Rox have done that since May 32nd-33rd, 1946 (not really, but I'm sure we'll hear the real figure 134324323482 times over the next few hours). The cardiac kids in purple pinstripes fought hard throughout the game and despite blowing a two run lead in the top of the ninth, they held it together well and came out with a HUGE W.

The game looked bleak at the beginning, as Jason Hammel allowed a run scoring single off the bat of Andre Ethier in the first inning and a solo home run to Casey Blake in the fourth. However, the Rox, after going hitless the first time through the lineup, broke through in the bottom half of that inning as Todd Helton doubled and Brad Hawpe followed that up with his 17th home run of the season - left-on-left off of Clayton Kershaw - and tied the game in the process.

The two teams remained scoreless until the bottom of the seventh, when Clint Barmes deposited a Ronald Bellisario offering into the left field bleachers, his 21st of the year, putting the Rockies up 3-2. In the bottom half of the next inning, Troy Tulowitzki hit a two-out double that plated Ryan Spilborghs and although Helton was thrown out at the plate, the Rox picked up what proved to be a big time insurance run.

With Huston Street unavailable (he pitched in six of the last seven days), Jim Tracy called on Rafael Betancourt to get the final three outs. However, Juan Pierre hit a leadoff single, and Rafael Furcal followed with a double. After a Matt Kemp sacrifice fly, the lead was cut to one. Joe Beimel came on and struck out Andre Ethier, but was questionably pulled in favor of Matt Daley, who threw a whole bunch of pitches in last night's victory over the Giants. After getting ahead 0-2 on Manny Ramirez, Daley kept throwing fastballs and after Manny fouled one off, he laced a single to right field to tie up the game.

Matt Herges came in and pitched a wonderful tenth inning, and earned the victory after the Rox loaded the bases on an Ian Stewart walk, a Carlos Gonzalez bunt single, and an intentional walk to Todd Helton. Tulo's gapper ensured the celebration took place at second base, which didn't prevent the umpires from getting off the field this time - always a positive.

Huge props to Jason Hammel, who rebounded very well from a shaky start and finished with 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, and 4 K's. Also, credit Franklin Morales, who threw an impressive eighth inning. Offensively, the Rox were paced by Tulo's two hits and two runs batted in. Also of note, Eric Young Jr. collected his first major league hit in the fifth inning with a single off of Kershaw.

72 - 54

Games Back: 2

Wildcard: +4.5

Streak: Won 4

Games Left: 36

Check out the WPA graph, RowCall, and tomorrow's starters after the jump.

via www.fangraphs.com

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Tomorrow: Randy Wolf (8-6) vs. Josh Fogg (0-1)...same time, same place. GO ROCKIES!

Rox can validate their presence in division race

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 20:57:48 -0000

More photos » by Jane Kalinowsky - AP

Might the Dodgers be too busy doing their...uh... victory dance (?)... that they let it all slip away?

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The Rockies could be in first place in the NL West Thursday. Let that sink in a bit. Technically, they would be tied with Los Angeles (and the Dodgers hold the tiebreaker), but that's still an incomprehensible achievement.

Remember that Colorado made up exactly zero games in the fifty that Manny Ramirez was suspended. Nada. Since the day Ma'amRam came back (which was the first game after the teams last played almost two months ago), the Rox have gone 30-17, making up 5.5 games on the Dodgers, who helped by going a modest 24-22.

Can the Rockies pull off the comeback by Thursday? Probably not. Sure, the Dodgers' offense has failed to get more than 3 runs in 8 of the past 11 games. Clayton Kershaw looks human and has been beaten up at Coors in the past. Vicente Padilla is making his first start in over three weeks and the Rockies are on an emotional high. But the pitching matchups are not kind to the Rockies, and a series victory will be hard enough to come by.

The rotation's top two starters are skipped for the series including the only Rockies starter the Dodgers have lost to (Marquis, twice). Instead, Jim Tracy will send out two men that failed to make a rotation out of Spring Training. You might be worried about the bullpen fatigue going into two games started by men who could get blown up in a hurry, especially after a late night 14-inning affair. However, the pen is more rested than you'd think. The number of pitches thrown from the pen in the last week:

Pitcher	Tues.	Wed.	Thu.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.
Street	16	10	13	-	8	14	11
Betancourt	-	9	17	-	1	-	10
Beimel	-	-	-	11	-	-	5
Morales	-	15	-	-	10	-	5
Daley	-	-	-	-	26	-	27
Eaton	-	-	-	42	-	-	55
Herges	-	-	-	-	10	-	-
Fogg	-	-	-	45	-	-	-

Street has been used frequently, but his pitch count has been down in every appearance. Thanks to Ubaldo Jimenez (see Tuesday and Sunday), only Matt Daley and Adam Eaton will be unavailable tonight.

Keep in mind that a series sweep isn't the only way to stay in the race. With these pitching matchups, winning the series will pull Colorado within two games, effectively giving the Rockies control of their own destiny.

TrueBlueLA feels the heat the Rockies are putting on, and Eric Stephen also noted the Climb of the Rockies this morning, as I linked in the Rockpile.

Be sure to hang out with the fans at True Blue LA. It's a good crowd and a far better place to be than McCovey Chronicles.

Los Angeles Dodgers (74-51, L1, 1st, 3.0 Gm Lead)

Tuesday-Thursday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

Manny Ramirez is not producing as expected. However, he's still among the elite hitters talent-wise, and his season wOBA is better than any Rockie. The Dodgers are third in the NL in runs and 3rd in wOBA. So this is the best offense we'll face outside of Philadelphia in the NL.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Rafael Furcal - SS	.256	6	35	.323	.347	.298
Matt Kemp - CF	.312	18	77	.371	.501	.381
Andre Ethier - RF	.282	25	83	.369	.526	.378
Manny Ramirez - LF	.303	13	45	.417	.546	.401
Casey Blake - 3B	.280	15	69	.356	.470	.349
James Loney - 1B	.277	7	71	.350	.381	.322
Russell Martin - C	.258	4	38	.362	.327	.312
Orlando Hudson - 2B	.291	8	57	.358	.425	.347

The lineup construction makes much more sense after Matt Kemp was moved up from the 8-hole. Furcal is still a hole in the leadoff spot, and Torre has shuffled the bottom half of his lineup around recently, as well as the 2-hole. By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one superstar (Ramirez), two strong All-Star caliber players (Kemp and Ethier), two solidly above average hitters (Hudson and Blake), two below average hitters (Loney and Martin) and one flat out bad hitter (Furcal).

Joe Torre's sparsely used and very weak bench includes IF's Juan Castro (.304, 1, 9), Mark Loretta (.224, 0, 22) and Tony Abreu (2-for-8), C Brad Ausmus (.304, 1, 8), and OF Juan Pierre (.319/.376/.403).

The Arms: A-

Clayton Kershaw has been stout all season, and Randy Wolf is having a career year. Vicente Padilla got the pleasure of joining a division-leading rotation that is 3rd best in ERA in MLB. The bullpen has been pitching well, with only Belisario and Mota having ERA's over 3.50 in August. After being scored upon in 3 of 4 outings mid-August, Jonathan Broxton has tossed five straight scoreless outings, allowing only two hits, though he did get his first loss 8/19 without allowing a hit.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jonathan Broxton	7-1	55	0	0	0	27	5	58.0	32	20	19	4	24	87	2.95	.97

Joe Torre's hard-ridden bullpen has been anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton), with righties Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario as setup men. Hong-Chih Kuo is back in the pen from the left side, and George Sherrill was the Dodgers' big deadline acquisition. Guillermo Mota, Jeff Weaver, and James McDonald are the pitchers we want to force Joe Torre to use. Still, only Weaver has been below average as a reliever per StatCorner.

The D: B-

Only three teams have committed fewer errors than Los Angeles, and their UZR/150 is 13th in MLB. Fangraphs rates them 12th in in the league, though notch em down for having Manny in left field for the series. Ethier is also rated as a very poor fielder by FG - in Brad Hawpe territory.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Clayton Kershaw	8-7	25	25	0	0	0	0	139.2	100	47	46	5	80	147	2.96	1.29

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	25	22	1	0	0	0	125.0	157	71	63	11	31	87	4.54	1.50

Kershaw has been a force to be reckoned with this season, though he's currently in the biggest lull since April. Still, 9 runs allowed in 4 starts qualifies as a lull, that's saying something. Notably though, Kershaw has failed to finish the fifth inning in 3 of 4 starts and is coming off of a bout with the flu. No one has beaten Kershaw up as consistently as the Rockies this season - he's given up 12 ER in 10.1 IP at Coors this year, and hte Dodgers have lost his last six starts. Jason Hammel has given up no more than 3 ER in four straight starts and 6 of 7. Home Hammel does exist (7.02 ERA) but he's kept the Rockies in games, which is all you can ask for. Colorado has won 6 of his last 7 starts at Coors Field with his only loss coming against Matt Cain. Favors: DODGERS moderately.

Wednesday, August 26, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wolf	8-6	28	27	0	0	0	0	169.2	144	67	63	19	45	128	3.34	1.11

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Josh Fogg	0-1	20	0	0	0	0	0	40.0	26	11	10	4	14	22	2.25	1.00

I don't understand where this Randy Wolf came from. According to Fangraphs, he has MLB's best fastball, which just seems ludicrous. Location location location. Hopefully, he talked to Lincecum Sunday night. In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.397 WHIP, 6.00 K/BB and 7.15 K/9. Plus he leads MLB in RBI by pitchers. Josh Fogg has done fine this season, but he's a contact pitcher. Matt Herges is set to relieve him, as long as Hammel doesn't implode tonight, in which case a roster move would need to be made. There's not reason to believe the Rockies can win this game. If they do, they win the series. Favors: DODGERS ridiculously heavily

Thursday, August 27, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Vicente Padilla	8-6	18	18	0	0	0	0	108.0	120	61	59	12	42	59	4.92	1.50

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	12-8	25	24	0	0	0	0	141.2	140	79	75	18	58	145	4.76	1.40

Padilla will be making his first start in a Dodger uniform. Coors Field is a nice place for a pitcher to debut. Vicente allowed 2 ER in 5 IP in a warmup start in AAA Aug 22, his first time on the mound since Aug 5. He will be on an MLB mound for the first time in over three weeks, and he allowed 5+ runs in 3 of his last 5 starts in Texas. According to Fangraphs, he's throwing a splitter for the first time in his career this year in addition to a fastball, change, curve, slider and cutter. Only that 92mph fastball has been very effective this season. Jorge de la Rosa has appeared to be more volatile this month after a fantastic July. Still, he has shown much more poise than we're used to, and has won 10 of his last 11 starts. He is 7-5 with a 5.29 ERA at Coors. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Andre Ethier is pushing .350 in August with 4 HR and Matt Kemp is hitting .301 in August with five dingers. Randy Wolf is in the midst of a strong 3-game stretch. Only Kershaw, Mota and Troncoso have ERAs over 3.50 this month. The pitching staff has allowed 3 or less runs in 8 straight games and 4 or less in 14 straight.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .211 with just two XBH this month. James Loney and Russell Martin are also hitting under .230 this month. The offense scored only 5 runs in the last 3 games vs. Chicago despite winning two, and have scored 2 or less in 5 of 7 games.

Doug Mientkiewicz (shoulder - 4/17) and Xavier Paul (ankle - 5/21) are on the 60-day DL. Hiroki Kuroda (concussion - 8/16), Jason Schmidt (shoulder - 8/6), and Will Ohman (shoulder - 5/28) are on the 15-day. James Loney has the flu and may be unable to play tonight, but should be able to pinch hit and start tomorrow. Mark Loretta would be the likely replacement at first.

Poll

Will the Rockies be tied for the NL West lead after Thursday's game?

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!!!!! SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!! TEAM OF DEEEEESTINY!

53 votes

No, but they'll inch to 2.0 GB with a series win, thereby keeping control of their destiny.

152 votes

No. The pitching matchups are not helpful for the Rockies at all in this series. They're a much better team than LA previously faced, so they won't get swept, but I can't see the Rox winning this series.

66 votes

Not even close. The Dodgers have the Rockies number and push them to 6GB with a sweep. Oh well, the wild card is ours to lose (not the Braves') anyway.

26 votes

297 votes | Poll has closed

Wednesday Pebble Report: Parker Frazier, King of the Mound

Russ Oates — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 13:52:30 -0000

Colorado Springs, L 2-4 (Completion of 8/10 game)
Eric Young Jr. went 3-for-5 and was caught stealing twice. Esmil Rogers struck out seven over six innings and allowed three runs.

Colorado Springs, L 1-3
Kurt Birkins struck out eight over seven innings and allowed one run on two hits. Unfortunately, Matt Herges allowed two runs in the sixth inning. Matt Miller drove in Eric Young on a triple in the first inning.

Tulsa: The Texas League had the night off.

Modesto, L 2-3
Bruce Billings took the mound for the second time after returning from injury and had trouble finding the strike zone. He walked five, but also struck out four. Ching-Lung Lo struck out five over the next three innings and allowed the two runners he inherited to score.

Jay Cox had a triple to start the sixth inning and scored on Matt Repec's single. Jeff Cunningham had two hits, one for a double, and scored the other Modesto run.

Asheville, W 5-0 (Completion of 8/10 game)
Jordan Pacheco hit his 12th homer of the season in the top of the ninth to finish the scoring. Ryan Peisel had two hits and drove in two runs, while Scott Robinson collected three hits. David Christensen had two hits, one for a double. Check out this amazing catch Christensen had last week.

Alan Deratt started and allowed two hits over four innings. Shane Lindsay walked tow and struck out three in the fifth inning.

Asheville, W 1-0
Parker Frazier twirled a gem last night, pitching seven innings, allowing three hits, and striking out eight. Adam Jorgenson picked up his 22nd save.

Scott Robinson singled in Thomas Field in the top of the eighth (an extra inning in this contest) to score the first and only run of the game,

Tri-City, W 6-0
Five of the six runs for Tri-City came in the final three frames. The first run scored in the fourth inning when Jeremiah Sammy singled in Tim Wheeler (who reached on a double). The run in the seventh inning went up on the board after Kevin Clark stole home. In the eighth inning, two sac flies and a bases-loaded walk accounted for the three runs. Kent Matthes had a single in the ninth for the final run.

Despite five walks, Carlos Luna didn't allow any runs and saw only one batter reach on a hit. Craig Benningson and Paul Bargas combined to allow three hits, and Rhett Ballard pitched a clean inning in the ninth.

Casper, L 2-3
Ricardo Ferrer allowed three runs on nine hits over six innings. He walked and struck out two. Nolan Arenado and Jared Clark drove in the runs.

The Casper Star-Tribune reports that there are clubhouse whispers that Chris Balcom-Miller might move up to Tri-City soon.

Wednesday Pebble Report: Victories for everyone last night

Russ Oates — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 13:47:15 -0000

Colorado Springs, W 12-10
The Sky Sox needed a four-run ninth inning to win this game. Eric Young Jr.'s two-run triple started the scoring that led to the win. Junior also walked three times. Dan Ortmeier drove in four runs, and Matt Miller and Matt Murton had two RBI each. Mike McCoy walked five times.

Alan Johnson allowed eight runs (four earned) in 4 2/3 innings on eight hits and six walks. Jonathan Herrera committed two fielding errors in the six-run second inning. Matt Herges picked up the win after pitching two scoreless innings.

Tulsa, W 11-3
It was a night for the long ball by the Drillers. Darin Holcomb hit his tenth of the season in the first inning. Ryan Harvey and Danny Sandoval each hit one in the seventh, Harvey's a three-run shot. Harvey went 3-for-5 with five RBI and fell a triple short of the cycle. Jeff Kindel had three hits and three RBI. Cole Garner also had three hits.Daniel Mayora committed three errors, a missed catch and two fielding ones.

Chaz Roe threw a complete game, allowing three runs on six hits and three walks. He struck out three. He threw 108 pitches, 67 for strikes, and had an 8-15 GO-FO.

Modesto, W 12-5
It was a glorious sixth inning for the Nuts, as they scored seven runs to take the lead in the game. The Mod Bee has a good recap of what happened in the inning:

With one out and the Nuts trailing 3-2, Jason Van Kooten singled, Scott Beerer walked and Matt Repec doubled to tie the game.
Bakersfield walked Maikol Gonzalez intentionally so their lefty starter Tim Murphy (7-9) could face the lefty Davis, but Modesto's catcher responded with a line drive off the wall in center for a three-run double and a 6-3 lead.

Reliever Glenn Swanson was greeted by Warren Schaeffer's single, and Rike followed with a majestic three-run homer to right field.

Repec went 3-for-4 with three RBI and a homer, and Lars Davis finished with four RBI.

Cory Riordan allowed three-run homer in the first inning, but settled down after that. He finished with six innings pitched, four runs allowed, and four strikeouts.

Asheville, W 7-0
Jonnathan Aristil turned in a great start, allowing no runs in 6 2/3 innings and striking out six. The bullpen combo of Alan Deratt, Shane Lindsay, Isaiah Froneberger, and Adam Jorgenson held Bowling Green off the bases for the last three innings.

Scott Robinson, Jordan Pacheco, and Thomas Field each had two hits. David Christensen (20) and Delta Cleary (25) each stole a base. Mike Zuanich doubled and drove in a run.

Tri-City, W 5-3
Tri-City also liked the ninth inning to take the lead. Joe Sanders drove in the first run on a single; the second run scored on a force attempt/fielding error; and finally, Tim Wheeler had a two-run double to center.

Dan Perkins allowed a run in five innings and struck out three. Rex Brothers threw 1 2/3 innings and struck out four. Paul Bargas picked up the win and Charlie Ruiz struck out three on the way to his 11th save.

Casper, W 9-8
Jonathan Vargas allowed one run on five hits in five innings. He struck out five and had a 6-2 GO-FO. But the bullpen almost ruined Vargas's nice start. Clint Tilford pitched the next three innings and allowed three runs in the eighth inning. Tyler Gagnon didn't have any better success since he allowed four runs in the bottom of the ninth. However, Leuris Gomez allowed three of those runs after he inherited the runners.

Jared Clark hit his sixth homer, a solo shot in the second inning. Nolan Arendao went 3-for-5 with a double and two runs scored. Avery Barnes collected four hits, drove in two runs, and stole his 16th base.