SB Nation - Brandon Duckworth

Reviewing Dayton Moore at the Trade Deadline: 2006

royalsreview — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 04:46:19 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher J.P. Howell remembers being traded for Joey Gathright. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

As we approach this year's trade deadline, it's useful to look back at Dayton Moore's deadline track record. In the first of three posts, we look at Dayton's first trade deadline: 2006.

The Royals hired Dayton Moore during the 2006 season. Moore was hired on May 30th and officially took over on June 8th, shortly after the 2006 Draft. (Which remains another story.) Moore was extremely active during his first few months as the Royals GM. After a week as the head man, Moore had parted ways with three minor leaguers, including Kyle Snyder, and signed Todd Wellemeyer, Brandon Duckworth and Donovan Osbourne. None of these guys did very much for the Royals, but they are emblematic of Moore's first eighteen months on the job. If you ever thought about pitching, the Royals took a flyer on you.

On June 20, 2006, Moore made his first major move, sending J.P. Howell to Tampa for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez. Seen from the beginning as a signature move, Moore parted ways with the college pitcher with seemingly limited upside for the tantalizing speed and defense of Joey Gathright. Like many of Moore's subsequent moves, there was a certain bravado to it: I'm not just going for speed, I'm bringing in the fastest guy in baseball, despite no evidence he can hit, or actually play center well, deal with it.

The Gathright trade has been discussed quite a bit over the years, and there isn't much more to be said. Gathright had his moments in Kansas City, and in theory was not a bad guy to take a look at. Howell however, has been better than 90% of the relievers the Royals have employed since his departure, and has recently blossomed into one of the better relievers in the American League. Fernando Cortez spent parts of two seasons in the Royals' system, and randomly had 16 PAs with the 2007 Royals. In the long run, the Gathright trade was a signature move, just not the type of signature Moore wanted.

The Gathright trade was not technically a "deadline deal" but beyond its date, there's not much to separate it from the other moves Dayton made that year. Let's take a look at the other trades Dayton made that July:

July 19, 2006: Traded Ruben Gotay to the Mets for Jeff Keppinger. A weird challenge trade if there ever was one. Gotay has some vague semblance of potential in 2006, while Keppinger was seen as a guy with a decent infield bat, but not a solid defensive reputation. Keppinger hit .267/.323/.400 in 67 PAs for the 2006 Royals, playing mostly at third base. Keppy should have been a sign of Dayton's love for scrappy white guys who play the game the right way. Keppinger was traded in Jaunary to the Reds for Russ Haltiwanger, who left the system last season. Keppinger, of course, immediately had a career season with the Reds in 2007. Gotay, of course, did little in New York and is currently in the Arizona system. Yours truly thought the Keppinger trade was fairly pointless back in 2006, but he likely would have been a better option at short in 2007-8 than Tony Pena Jr. turned out to be.

July 24, 2006: Traded Mike MacDougal to the White Sox for Daniel Cortes and Tyler Lumsden: This was a big trade back in 2006. MacDougal was a longtime Royal by the standards of the day, was one of the heroes of 2003 and was something of a fan favorite. While generally unreliable in both the long and short term, had his uses as a reliever. MacDougal was quickly signed to a three-year deal with the White Sox, yet never really pitched well there. Dayton's haul of Dan Cortes and Tyler Lumsden was viewed from the onset as a great trade, and through 2008 Cortes was highly regarded as a pitching prospect. Considering that both Cortes and Lumsden are both gone now, having never contributed at the Major League level (Lumsden stayed in the KC system until last November, when he was claimed by the Astros) it remains mostly a good trade in only in an alternative universe. Of course, according to the party line, Cortes was used to acquire a great everyday shortstop with lots of upside. So another victory.

July 25, 2006: Elmer Dessens traded to Dodgers for Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel and Odalis Perez. This was an interesting trade. The Royals shipped out Elmer Dessens, who was having an ok season for the Royals as a middle reliever (4.50 ERA, generic peripheral stats) and, in exchange for taking on a portion of the Odalis Perez contract, came out with two pitching prospects. Odalis made 38 starts for the Royals, and while he was the subject of many jokes on this site and elsewhere, he was not totally terrible (84 ERA+). Plus, he gave rise to the former-Brave theory, which has been one of the few things keeping me alive during this decade. Blake Johnson is currently pitching at AA, and Pimentel (currently injured I believe) was at AA in 2008. Considering that both are still around and somewhat well-regarded, the Dessens deal may be Dayton's best trade.

July 25, 2006: Tony Graffanino traded to Milwaukee for Jorge de la Rosa. By the time this trade hit, we were starting to think we'd figured out Dayton Moore. Arms with upside. Jorge was not a former Brave, but he felt like one. A guy with a great arm, who'd seemingly been around as a prospect for decades. Graffanino had had a weird run with the Royals: signed to a 2 year 2.2 million deal for 04-05, Graffy was traded to Boston in 2005. After the '05 season, he signed a $2 million dollar deal with Boston, but ended up being DFAed. In March of 2006, the Royals claimed him off waivers from Boston. Then, Moore traded him. JDLR spent two seasons with the Royals and was nearly identical to Odalis Perez, posting an ERA+ of 83 in 36 games. I don't remember ever feeling like he was going to be a contributor or that he was turning it around. JDLR eventually ended up in Colorado, where he's still pitching. Graffanino meanwhile, retains historical importance as one of the early examples of the team's Gritty Scrappy White Middle Infielder Fetish: McEwing, Graffanino, Grudzielanek, Keppinger, etc.. Of course, St. Willie Bloomquist has been the apogee of this bizarre fixation.

July 31. 2006: Matt Stairs sent to Texas for Joselo Diaz: Would you believe that Diaz was a minor league pitcher? Dude ended up being completely horrible in extremely limited action with the Royals in 2006, and was hardly better in Omaha. Diaz left the system as a free agent after the 2006 season, and is currently with the Dodgers. The Stairs trade was more or less a salary dump, only that Stairs wasn't that expensive, given that he was making $1.4 million. Stairs has bounced around, but is still contributing at the Major League level, while the Royals will head into 2010 not sure who to play at DH.

July 31, 2006: Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista sent to Colorado for Scott Dohman and Ryan Shealy: Another highly-praised trade at the time, the Affeldt-Shealy deal ended up working out much better for the Rockies than the Royals. Affeldt was a tantalizing but generally despised Royal by 2006, after three years of countless message board debates about how he should be used. And shockingly, he always had nagging injuries! He must have been a pansy. Shealy appeared for all the world to be a plug and play AAAA masher who could provide cheap offense at 1B/DH. Instead, after a passable 2006 debut with the Royals (102 OPS+) he was one of the worst players in the Major Leagues in 2007, and has been injury-plagued and unheard from since. Affeldt ended up giving the Rockies 86 innings of 105 ERA+ pitching over two seasons, and is currently with the Giants. Dohmann and Bautista did very little with their new teams, though Denny Bautista did make everyone confused for a few years, as he was one of like six guys out there named "Denny Bautista".

Overall Evaluation: In 2006, it looked pretty good. I count 12 players in, 8 players out. Dayton's five trades during deadline week were what every single Royals fan wanted. There was a general impression that Moore was clearing the roster of the detritus of the Baird regime and beginning the long rebuild of the franchise. Still, by 2008, only four of the new guys -- Gathright, Shealy, Pimentel, Johnson -- were still with the Royals, and Gathright and Shealy were almost certainly done as Major League contributors. Moore did dump some salary, but only the modest amounts which remained owed to Stairs, Graffy and Affeldt. We're talking about maybe 1.5 million here, not a large number. Other than the ill-fated Gathright, effectively, none of Moore's myriad moves produced a single Major League player for the Royals. Nothing.

Here's the damning thing: if you gathered up all the players involved in this flurry of 2006 and subjected them to a draft, here in 2009, the players the Royals sent packing in 2006 are still the best players. Of course, that's partially to be expected, given the example of a player like Matt Stairs. Nevertheless, none of the prospects Moore acquired has turned out to be a contributor in 2009, and only two, Johnson and Pimentel, have any real shot of doing so. In that fictional draft, right now you'd take Howell first, then, probably Affeldt, then Stairs. Someone might take MacDougal fourth, or maybe, maybe de la Rosa. (Actually, many GMs would probably take Cortes near the top of that list, but after the Betancourt, I can't give Dayton credit for him.)

Moore's deadline trades did not make the Royals better in 2006, or 2007, or 2008, or 2009. While he won the extremely minor Gotay-Keppinger trade and got nice value with the Dessens swap, none of Dayton's 2006 deadline deals really worked out for the Royals. He lost the Affeldt-Shealy trade and he lost the Howell-Gathright trade. The deals made involving MacDougal, Stairs, and Graffanino, ultimately did nothing for the franchise at all.

This deadline was really the beginning of Moore's reputation as a transactions hound, as someone who was actively scouring the low minor leagues for pitching talent, and as someone who would need to make approximately five million trades to fix the disaster that was the Royals.

Finally, one thing that stands out about these trades is how utterly inconsequential they all were. Most of the players involved, coming and going, left no real impact anywhere. That should remind us something about how most of these deadline deals end up. This is especially true when you're talking about the kind of C market players that the Royals shop, and shop for.

The Joselo Diazes come, the Joselo Diazes go. Only the Baseball Annies of the minor leagues remember much.

Division-By-Division 2009 Projected Starting Pitching Rankings By WAR: AL Central

devil_fingers — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 14:00:10 -0000

This is the fourth in a series of six posts going through the MLB division-by-division to see which team has the best projected 2009 starting pitching by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to an average of the "Big Three" projection systems.. This post covers the rotations of a division that appears to be as "up for grabs " as any other in the majors: the AL Central. I actually had to do a bit of revising of my original big spreadsheet because the BP depth charts have undergone some revision since I originally started, which did effect some things. Surprises await...

Brandon "Ducky" Duckworth wants you to read on after the jump.

How Did I Come Up With These Numbers?

Some details on the methods used (if you don't care, you can jump straight to the "Team-By-Team")

FIP is used as the primary pitching stat.
The projected 2009 for each pitcher is generated by averagfing the projections of the three best publicly available projection systems: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA. The projected FIP for CHONE and ZiPS are from the player pages at FanGraphs. I generated the PECOTA FIP myself from the big spreadsheet.
Playing time/depth chart projections are based on Baseball Prospectus's depth charts (not the PECOTA weighted mean) in order to account for spot starters as well. These change every week; the playing times used are those that were up when I was writing the present post.
No team only starts 5 players all year long. However, I've also included a "top 5" figure for each team, based on the top 5 projected starter WARs for each team (not the top five projected IPs).
Value is based on a Win% generated using PythagenPat in relation to a average FIP-ERA of 4.40 and an RA of 4.76.
Run values are generated by are scaling FIP to RA rather than ERA for better accuracy and to properly value pitchers with respect to hitters.
An appropriate replacement level win percentage for starting pitchers is used, adjusted for relative league difficulty: .390 is replacement level for starters in the NL, and .370 for the AL.
Adjustments for ballparks use the five-year regressed park factors used at FanGraphs.
Adjustments are made for each pitcher's influence on his run environment through a dynamic run-to-win conversion for each individual pitcher.
New feature starting with the AL Central post: aggregate team starter win %. Yay! Note: that this is not directly convertible to team WAR, as it is a simple weighted average based on individual win% and IP. There will be discrepancies between team win% and team WAR, which is based on individual win % because this rough calculation occurs before individual impcat on run environment is taken into account for run-to-win conversion. WAR is the focus here. This feature is just for fun and a rough little guide to quality in relation to average. WAR is still the main focus of this series.
Neither the rates nor playing time projections are "mine." I have simply the projections, averaged them, and combined them with BP's playing time predictions. You can find the complete projected lines for each pitcher at the home sites for the systems (and FanGraphs, for CHONE and ZiPS). In other words, don't blame me if you lose money betting with this stuff...

Team-By-Team

Cleveland Indians
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Cliff Lee	200	3.84	.559	37.9	3.8
Fausto Carmona	150	4.26	.511	21.1	2.1
Jeremy Sowers	125	4.75	.458	11.1	1.1
Anthony Reyes	110	4.83	.451	8.9	0.9
Aaron Laffey	100	4.43	.492	12.2	1.2
Carl Pavano	65	4.95	.439	4.5	0.4
David Huff	60	4.43	.492	7.3	0.7
Jake Westbrook	80	4.26	.510	11.2	1.1
Scott Lewis	50	4.41	.494	6.2	0.6
Total			.498		11.9
Top 5					9.3

Comment: Both CHONE and Baseball Prospectus currently have the Indians as the likely winners of the 2009 AL Central. This isn't that surprising, although (like many forecasts) it depends on a number of assumptions about the how successful the returns of Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, etc. will be. In any case, it's pretty obvious here that if Cliff Lee completely reverts to his pre-2008 form or is out for an extended period of time, the divisional title aspirations for the Indians may be up in smoke, although, again, that's true for a lot of teams and their star players. Cleveland is attempting up for their lack of top-end quality with depth, as can be seen from the gap between the total projected WAR and the TOP 5. The .498 projected win percentage sees them as about average. As will be a theme throughout this post, there are a lot of variables here.... Insert Carl Pavano joke here.

Detroit Tigers
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Justin Verlander	195	4.10	.534	31.9	3.2
Jeremy Bonderman	150	4.15	.528	22.1	2.2
Armando Galaragga	165	4.85	.454	13.9	1.3
Edwin Jackson	160	4.78	.461	14.5	1.4
Zach Miner	80	4.29	.512	11.3	1.1
Nate Robertson	110	4.70	.469	10.9	1.1
Dontrelle Willis	70	5.18	.423	3.7	0.3
Rick Porcello	55	5.76	.374	0.2	0.0
Total			.481		10.7
Top 5					9.3

Comment: Blah blah blah joke about 1,000 run offense in 2008. The pitching (and defense) bombed last year. Adam Everett and Gerald Laird should help out on defense, but there are a lot of fingers crossed in Detroit, as those signings in addition to the Matt Joyce-for-Edwin Jackson trade portend a "win-now" season for an aging team; the pitchers can't blow it. Verlander is the only pitcher here who projects both as clearly above average in his rate stats and for a decent amount of innings. Bonderman looks above average when he's projected to pitch, but at this point, "disappointment" is probably the right word. Galaragga was a nice pickup, but he has to come back to earth eventually. Rick Porcello: replacement level picher. I miss Dontrelle Willis being good. Sorry for all of the negative comments -- in actuality, this group is better than some people think, and notice that their "Top 5" group is as good as Cleveland's.

Minnesota Twins
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Scott Baker	170	4.06	.529	27.0	2.7
Francisco Liriano	160	3.86	.553	29.3	3.0
Nick Blackburn	160	4.56	.473	16.5	1.6
Glen Perkins	150	5.24	.408	5.7	0.5
Kevin Slowey	170	3.96	.541	29.1	2.9
Philip Humber	110	5.49	.386	1.8	0.2
Kevin Mulvey	50	4.99	.431	3.1	0.3
Total			.486		11.2
Top 5					10.7

Comment: I suppose that I'm not the only one that thought these guys would project a little better. Again, this is a situation where playing time is very important. If Liriano and Baker can avoid injuries, this is probably the best rotation in the division. Slowey is also a stud-in-the-making from the Twins' Brad Radke factory.. Imagine if they could get Tampa Bay to trade Matt Garza for Delmon Young. Nah, any GM stupid enough to do that should be fired forthwith, right? In terms of sheer win%, Baker, Liriano, and Slowey look like the best 1-2-3 punch in the division. Seems like the "Twins way" should probably involve overpaying for some crappy vet to take innings away from one or more of the young guys in the grand tradition of the Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez signings. To be fair, it does like young Philip Humber (part of the Johan Santana trade "bonanza") will be contributing quite a bit of near-replacement level sweetness this season.

Chicago White Sox
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Mark Buerhle	200	4.38	.521	30.2	3.0
John Danks	175	4.21	.540	29.8	3.0
Gavin Floyd	180	5.08	.451	14.5	1.4
Clayton Richard	110	4.93	.464	10.4	1.0
Jose Contreras	130	4.54	.504	17.4	1.7
Bartolo Colon	80	4.79	.478	8.6	0.8
Jack Egbert	40	4.69	.489	4.7	0.5
Lance Broadway	40	5.89	.382	0.5	0.0
Aaron Poreda	40	5.08	.451	3.2	0.3
Total			.490		11.8
Top 5					9.3

Comment: If you ask me, Kenny Williams is one of the most entertaining GMs in baseball. No, I don't think he's great. I don't think he's terrible. I don't know what to think. Sometimes he makes moves that I think are stupid, and they work out well. Or he makes moves that make me think he's "getting it," and they bomb. It's fun to watch from a distance, although it must be brutally exhausting for White Sox fans. If you read my NL East post in this series, you'll see that Javier Vazquez is projected at about 2 wins better than anyone else on the White Sox currently. The ChiSox got young guys in return and are clearly trimming salary (Vazquez and Swisher wouldn't have been my choices, but see my comments about my judgments re: Williams' past moves above), so we'll have to wait and see how it works out in big picture, but, again, with Vazquez, this would easily be the best rotation in the division... Gavin Floyd, meet reality. Jose Contreras may be old, but White Sox fans would certainly rather see him out there than Bartolo Colon. John Danks turns 24 in April, and looks like a stud-in-the-making.

Kansas City Royals
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Gil Meche	195	4.03	.542	33.6	3.4
Zack Greinke	190	3.92	.555	35.2	3.6
Brian Bannister	160	4.82	.457	13.9	1.3
Kyle Davies	140	4.93	.446	10.6	1.0
Luke Hochevar	140	4.81	.457	12.2	1.2
Horacio Ramirez	60	4.39	.501	7.9	0.8
Brandon Duckworth	30	4.84	.454	2.5	0.2
Sidney Ponson	60	5.00	.440	4.2	0.4
Total			.493		11.9
Top 5					10.5

Comment: I've had some harsh words for Royals GM Dayton Moore this offseason, and I'm not taking them back now. But I have to hand it to the man: he's put together a respectable rotation. True, like many of the Royals' best players, young ace Zack Greinke is a holdover from the previous administration (as are Alex Gordon, David DeJesus, Mike Aviles, and Billy Butler) , but Moore did manage to extend him. And although the Gil Meche contract now looks like a giant outlier among Moore's ...questionable... record with free agents, it's been a dandy. Greinke and Meche project as the best 1-2 punch in the division by both WAR and individual win%. Going just by WAR, they project as the 2nd and 3rd best pitchers in the division (behind Cliff Lee). Neither Bannister nor Davies looks like a world beater, but they can at least hold down the back of the rotation decently, and were acquired by trading older and expensive (Octavio Dotel for Davies) or young and overrated "live arms" (Ambriox Burgos for Bannister) for cheap young production. Um, no, I personally don't think Ho-Ram is a .501 starting pitcher. The projection systems probably don't differentiate between his time as a starter and as a reliever. But hey, I'm just following the numbers here. There's no homerism. There are "issues" like that all over this series, and if I start making half-baked subjective adjustments of my own in one place, I'll have to do it everywhere, and we end up with a bunch of junk. Before Carlos Rosa got sent back to Omaha to be a reliever, the Royals actually projected slightly better, but Sir Sidney isn't going to kill them too badly with only 60 innings (gulp), although the acquisition may trigger a crisis of epic proportions... P. S. Ducky rules.

Let's see the final results:

AL Central Projected SP WAR
Rank	Team	Total SP WAR	Top 5 WAR	Win%
1	Royals	11.9	10.5	.493
1	Indians	11.9	9.3	.498
3	White Sox	11.8	9.4	.490
4	Twins	11.2	10.7	.486
5	Tigers	10.7	9.3	.481
Total		57.5	49.2

Final Thoughts: That is very close, with all five teams are within 1.2 WAR. KC and Cleveland are tied on top at 11.9, with Chicago right behind at 11.8. No group of starters (including spot starters) projects as average (.500 or greater win%), although all are pretty close. While the top teams are worse than any other top divisional teams (at least so far), the bottom team is better than any other bottom team... Until the recent depth chart changes on both teams, Cleveland was further down the list, and KC was the clear #1. I was excited about that, but I had to give in to what the projections now say... On one hand, I could give it to Cleveland on the basis of the superior win%, but on the other, KC has the better "Top 5." So I have them tied, with KC listed first (in your face, Kyle!). Besides, as I noted above, the calculations for aggregate win% are only a "rough guide," anyway. And that's the mess with this whole division -- things are so close. Given the nature of projections in general, the potential for devastating pitcher injury, young player unpredictability, etc. it's not that far fetched to see any of the teams having the best starting WAR at the end of the season. For fans of the Indians, the Twins (my "gut" tells me this is really the best rotation in the division, but you know what the gut's brains are made of...), and the Tigers, it's pretty clear that their rotations definitely have question marks, but are each good enough to potentially help win the division. For Royals fans, there's a good young core there, and hopefully the position players can catch up. For White Sox fans... hey, you know Kenny better than I do, you tell me what to expect, I have no clue. I guess that's why Kenny Williams is the GM, and I'm the blog-talkin' guy...

Next up: NL West (later this week, probably Wednesday or Thursday)