SB Nation - Gil Meche

Twitter Is Ridiculous Applesauce - Omar Meets The Agents, Juan Pierre Is Available And Nonsensical Rumors

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:05:48 -0000

It seems reporters/"journalists" are neglecting to consider source bias and failing to corroborate rumors with multiple sources before posting on Twitter or a blog. All in the name of page hitzzz I suppose.

Meet the Mets

Omar Minaya met with the agents for various players last night, including John Lackey, Jason Marquis, Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf.

In an interview with Daily 'Stache, Adam Rubin says the Mets should focus on pitching this offseason, namely Lackey. He also says Jeff Francoeur is the most reliable provider of good quotes.

Steve Henson says that 3-4 teams are interested in Dodgers OF Juan Pierre. A trade for Pierre would likely include a bad contract player, AKA Luis Castillo. No thanks on Pierre. Speaking of undesirable players, Jerry Crasnick reports that Elmer Dessens will likely re-sign with the Mets. If it's a major league deal you better get ready for Dessens Avenue.

Ken Davidoff tweets that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Mets radar. Interesting, considering the bizarre chain of events involving the Mets and Torrealba two offseasons ago.

Joel Sherman reports that a John Maine for Corey Hart trade is being discussed. Hart is just 27 years old and two years removed from a 4+ win season but I'd rather hold on to Maine. Will at BlueAndOrange agrees and thinks the deal is plausible, especially considering Omar Minaya's affinity for bad corner outfielders.

Mets Fever is also a fan of Adam Kennedy. If Castillo can be moved, Kennedy is the way to go.

LOL Rumors of the Day

Early yesterday it was reported that Pat Burrell had been traded to the Mets. This story was debunked almost immediately and the original story has been taken down from PhillyBlurbs, the website with the original report. Folks, cool it with your bogus anonymous sources, you're not providing a valuable service and it's annoying. No one is impressed.

Ed Price of Fanhouse tweeted the following yesterday:

Rumor that #Mets acquire Edwin Jackson

This was followed shortly by a clarification tweet from Price:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby.

Why not get confirmation before posting the rumor? Does "heard in the lobby" count as a reliable source nowadays?

Around MLB

The Nationals gave Pudge Rodriguez 2 years, $6 million for some reason.

Randy Wolf reportedly signed with the Brewers for 3 years and an unknown dollar amount.

Chuck Brownson at The Hardball Times discusses swaps for bad contracts, including Dontrelle Willis, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche and Kevin Millwood.

Tim Marchman thinks an intra-Chicago trade between the Cubs and White Sox involving Milton Bradley makes sense.

Matt Murton, a notorious ginger and player good enough to start on many major league teams, is going to play for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. I wonder if Murton realizes he's good enough for MLB.

Off topic link of the day: Tom Tango reviews the incredibly enjoyable movie Taken and heaps justifiable praise on Liam Neeson. I agree with him, Taken is fantastic.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:30:33 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Jeff Suppan reacts after walking in three runs during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Cubs. Searching for someone who will take his contract could be one of the Brewers' focal points this week.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while the blue socks tie your look together.

All eyes turn to Indianapolis this week, as the Winter Meetings start today. While there, Brewer management would most likely jump at any chance to unload the contract of Jeff Suppan. Tom H. floated the idea of a Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, while Jorge Says No! wonders if Jeff Suppan and prospects for Gil Meche makes sense (Also noted in Rumorville). For whatever it's worth, the Meche deal is probably unlikely unless one of the Brewers' top prospects is involved. Apparently the Mets have also contacted the Royals to ask about him.

Other pre-meeting buzz:

Tom H. has a winter meeting preview with some stuff you've heard before and a Doug Melvin complaint about cost uncertainty.
Steve Henson of Yahoo says the Brewers are more likely to look for free agents than trades to fill the gaps in their rotation and bench.
Adam McCalvy has a look at some of the prospects that could be mentioned if the Brewers decide to make a deal, but acknowledges the fact that the Brewers don't have the organizational depth to make a major splash via that route.
Apparently Edwin Jackson, one trade candidate the Brewers have expressed interest in, could find a new home soon.
Meanwhile, Yahoo is reporting that multiple teams are interested in Doug Davis, but the only candidate they're naming at this point is the Crew.

If you weren't around over the weekend, Noah did a great job in the weekend Mug of covering reaction to the Gregg Zaun deal. Here are a few more nuggets on Zaun I spotted this morning:

Adam McCalvy tweeted that Zaun's deal includes $600,000 in incentives tied to games started, which could push the total guaranteed value up to $2.75 million if Ken Macha is unwilling to let one of the young guys play.
Fire Doug Melvin is not excited about the decision to guarantee Zaun the starting job.

The Zaun move inspired Casa de Machado to throw in the towel for 2010, complete with this quote:

I think are chances in 2010 are slim to none.

It's like this picture and The Iron Sheik's Twitter all rolled in to one. (h/t to the Former Hacks for the Sheik link)

I know at least some of you attended the Brewer Clubhouse Sale over the weekend. Did you find anything good? Did you show up in this WISN story?

Just one transaction note today:

Indians: Signed former Twin Brian Buscher to a minor league deal.

Some free agent deals might get done at the Winter Meetings this week, but don't expect John Lackey to be one of them: Lackey is believed to be seeking $17 million+ per year for at least six years, and it'll take some time for his price to fall back into a range that isn't laughable.

Six years and $102 million would probably earn Lackey honorable mention on Big League Stew's list of the worst ten contracts of the 2000s. Click that link if you'd like to feel better about the Brewer tenure of Doug Melvin: All ten contracts mentioned are clearly worse than Jeff Suppan's deal.

Looking for a buy-low rotation candidate? Diamond Notes mentions the Dodgers are expected to have interest in Chien-Ming Wang, when/if the Yankees announce their decision to non-tender him for next season. Assuming the price is right, one would think the Brewers might be interested too.

Speaking of the Dodgers, they're continuing to cut costs by attempting to deal George Sherrill.

On this day in 2005, the Brewers traded Lyle Overbay (along with Ty Taubenheim) to the Blue Jays for David Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson, clearing the way for Prince Fielder to take over at first base in 2006. Overbay has hit .275/.356/.449 over four seasons as a Blue Jay.

On this day in 2007, the Brewers acquired Salomon Torres from the Pirates for two minor leaguers. Torres posted a 3.49 ERA and saved 28 games for the 2008 Brewers.

Happy birthday today to Jim Austin, who posted a 3.06 ERA while making 83 relief appearances as a Brewer between 1991 and 1993, and turns 46.

Oh, and it looks like winter is now upon us, so it may be time to bust out the solar powered hat and gloves. Or just stay home and watch the Pride and Prejudice with Zombies miniseries. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:46:08 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Randy Wolf: 2010 Brewer?

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while combining restaurants.

There's been a (likely unsubstantiated) rumor floating around that the Brewers have reached agreement on a three year deal for Randy Wolf. Again, odds are it's nothing, but it's still probably the top story on a slow news day, so here's some reaction to it:

In-Between Hops says the move would "make the Brewers starting rotation 50% better than it is right now."
Jorge Says No! thinks "this deal could turn into Jeff Suppan 2.0."

My reaction to the deal would depend on the price. If it'll take Suppan money to sign Wolf, then I'm not interested. But if the price is the rumored 3 years/$27 million, then we're getting close to the acceptable range. A third season for Wolf might be a bit risky, but the price is low enough to not be crippling.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are also still rumored to have interest in Gregg Zaun. FanGraphs has targeted Zaun as one of the players they'd like you to stop by and project today.

Assuming the front office isn't preparing to announce a Randy Wolf deal, they're most likely getting ready for next week's Winter Meetings. Adam McCalvy has a preview, including the Brewer needs, and once again raises the possibility that Jason Kendall could be back next season. McCovey Chronicles ranked Kendall seventh in their Future Free Agent Mistake Power Rankings.

Could Manny Parra be more effective out of the bullpen? I'm not sure I'm sold on it, but Keith Law said the Brewers should think about it in yesterday's chat, as noted over at View From Bernie's Chalet. Law also isn't too high on either Mat Gamel or Casey McGehee as a long-term solution at third base.

I know at least one BCB'er is already in line to get in, but if you were still trying to decide on checking out the Clubhouse Sale at Miller Park this weekend, John and Cait have a preview of the items that will be featured. After seeing it, I wish I had time to go.

If you're looking to do some Christmas shopping but you're more of the minor league type, the Brevard County Manatees also have some holiday specials going.

Alcides Escobar and Hernan Iribarren will be back in the states this weekend, as the Venezuelan Winter League plays a two game series in Miami to showcase Venezuelan baseball in the US. Escobar and Iribarren's Lara team will take on a Zulia team which used to feature Brendan Katin. I'm assuming Katin has left the team, as he hasn't appeared in a game in over a month.

Elsewhere in the winter leagues, Mat Gamel went 0-for-2 with a strikeout in his VWL debut for Caracas last night. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Update.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed pitcher Ryan Sadowski to a minor league deal.
A's: Acquired Aaron Miles and Jake Fox from the Cubs for reliever Jeff Gray and two minor leaguers.
Braves: Signed Takashi Saito to a one year deal.
D-Backs: Removed reliever Kyler Newby and catcher Luke Carlin from their 40-man roster. (h/t AZ Snakepit)
Mets: Signed Henry Blanco to a one year, $1.5 million deal.
Phillies: Signed Placido Polanco to a three year deal worth $18 million.
Rays: Released pitcher Ramon Ramirez.
Red Sox: Signed Marco Scutaro to a two year deal with a mutual option for 2012.

If some of the Brewers' current pitching targets don't turn out, might they be interested in Gil Meche? MLB Trade Rumors says the Royals are expecting to receive offers for him once the free agent market starts to heat up. Meche is owed $24 million over the next two seasons, but has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in two of the last three years.

All three of these guys will probably come up in connection to the Brewers again at some point: Lookout Landing has a look at the upsides of Rich Harden, Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets, and explains why Harden is in a better position than Bedard for 2010.

Happy birthday today to:

Carlos Gomez, who turns 24.
Harvey Kuenn, who would have turned 79.

Oh, and no matter how disappointed you are in the offseason so far, at least we can all be glad Doug Melvin isn't responsible for these robocalls.

Drink up.

Zack Grienke watching Royals' offseason moves

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:02:12 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Browse more photos »

Royals ace Zack Grienke did not hold back in expressing his disappointment over the Royals' 2009 season. The Royals really should listen to Grienke, considering he emerged as the face of the franchise after the 2009 season.

"We'll see when the offseason comes what all we do," Greinke said. "I thought we'd be better than we've been, but we kind of proved this year that we still need more than we have to compete."

Mike Jacobs was a flop, and the injuries to Alex Gordon and Coco Crisp certainly hurt their chances. Their prize from the 2007 offseason, Gil Meche, has put up three straight double-digit losses, and finished the 2009 season with a 5.09 ERA.

The Royals need to make an investment on an impact player, because Alex Gordon is struggling to live up to potential, and Billy Butler's biggest test will come next season, when we'll see if he can continue to swing a hot bat.

If the Royals have another disappointing season, and Grienke has another Cy Young-like season, we should expect to hear whispers of a Grienke trade.

Grienke isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2012 season, but he is looking to sign an extension if the team doesn't invest more in winning. If the Royals can't lure any top players on the free agent market, then they'll likely have to shop Zack Grienke for a boatload of young prospects.

Grienke will turn 30 during the 2012 offseason, meaning his value could be at its peak coming into the 2011 season. The Royals would be smart to consider making that move so they can start the rebuilding process, because right now they are in a state of funk.

Sherman's Second Plan To Top Atlanta

Sam Page — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:01:03 -0000

Recently at the Post, Joel Sherman threw some water on the John Lackey dreams of many Mets fans, instead proposing a series of buy-low candidates the Mets would be prudent to acquire. His criteria reads:

So if the obvious avenues are blocked, where do the Mets go? I am going to recommend three starters that have this in common: They are AL flyball pitchers with high-end stuff, coming off bad years (all had 5.00-plus ERAs).

He is overstating the effect of switching leagues by totally ignoring qualified National League pitchers, but is definitely considering some qualities the Mets should pay more attention to. Did his search yield anyone worth acquiring?

Sherman's first suggestion is Jeremy Guthrie. He starts with a pretty convincing case against Guthrie:

Guthrie is coming off, by far, his worst season (10-17, 5.04 ERA), and his strikeout rate fell for a fourth straight year, never a good sign.

His strikeout rate didn't just decline, it went from barely average to bad:

via www.fangraphs.com

Guthrie seemingly never had very good stuff, which would violate Sherman's high-end stuff condition. But wait!

But Yankee hitters continued to praise his stuff.

That's a basically meaningless statement, since you wouldn't expect the Yankees to trash their opponents publicly. The assumption there, however, that a drop in "stuff" hasn't led to the drop in strikeout rate, is supported by Pitchf/x finding virtually no change in his pitches' movement. As for his extreme flyball tendencies, Sherman conflates some trends, and ignores most of his career numbers.

He yielded the most homers in a season in the AL since 2006 (35). Fewer than half (17) came at home, but he was the second most extreme flyball pitcher among qualified AL starters in 2009.

Guthrie, the third most extreme flyball pitcher among qualified AL starters in 2009, posted a 10.9% HR/FB, which is actually exactly equal to his career mark. In fact, the huge number of homeruns was the result of Guthrie going from a career extreme groundball pitcher to flyball pitcher suddenly. As a result, his homeruns allowed should only be expected to come down if you think he will revert back to a groundball pitcher suddenly, which is much less likely than simply regressing from some bad luck. While this expectation may be a decent gamble in itself, best-case Jeremy Guthrie is a groundball pitcher with averageish stuff, which is basically the opposite of what Sherman was trying to find. That being considered, Ruben Tejada and Bobby Parnell, Sherman's proposed package, is a horrible trade for a pitcher who is best case Pelfrey-lite and worst case, useless.

For his second proposal, Sherman does something odd, pointing out how team-abuse led to Gil Meche injuring his arm, then quotes the organization that abused him to prove Meche would be alright:

But he was doing bullpen sessions late in the year and two Royals officials told me that if the team was in contention, he would have been able to pitch.

Was it the same Royals official who said Meche's injury came from having the wrong "mindset"? Meche did have some bad luck with homeruns, the difference between bad 5.40 tRA and a not-good-at-all regressed 5.04 tRA*. There's precedent, however: throughout most of Meche's mostly forgettable Seattle career he posted similar HR/FB numbers. Bottom line: why trade for and subsequently pay $24MM dollars for two years of a huge injury risk, with higher-upside, cheaper, injury risks on the free agent market? Busted Gil Meche for two years or Rich Harden for one? Sherman fittingly proposes trading Castillo, because the Royals need fielding help, Sherman and Dayton Moore being the last two people on Earth who believe Luis Castillo plays anything better than horrible defense.

His third idea, Ervin Santana, is like Gil Meche in that he did have some bad luck with homers last year, but has the larger red flag of arm issues and a big contract. Unlike Meche, however, Santana is a year removed from a great 6 WAR season and could be worth the risk. For that same reason, though, he'd likely cost more in trade.

Not being one to criticize without contributing, however, I'll add three buy-low pitchers, who don't necessarily conform to Sherman's criteria (much like his own three).

1. Felipe Paulino- Paulino went 3-11 with a 6.27 ERA, which likely makes Astros GM Ed Wade's eyes bleed. Underneath those superficial stats, however, Paulino had very good peripherals and an absurd HR/FB rate, making his tRA* an above-average 4.42. He's got blazing stuff, a very unfavorable home ballpark, and his value couldn't be lower. Trading for Paulino seems like a total no-brainer.

2. Sergio Mitre- I think Mitre fits Sherman's rubric for a trade target better than any of his three. Mitre demonstrated middling stuff with improved control, but somehow gave up 10 homeruns in just 51 ML innings. With an ERA of 6.79, and an xFIP of 4.19, Mitre may be worth the rare cross-town trade.

3. Braden Looper- Seriously. Looper surrendered a crazy 39 homeruns, playing his home games in hitter-friendly Miller Park. In Citi Field, Looper could likely replicate his solid back-of-the-rotation or better performances with the Cardinals.

Similar buy-low candidates: Ricky Nolasco (the king of bad luck: pitched like an ace, ERA like someone on the Mets), Brett Myers, Aaron Cook, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Derek Lowe.

Reconsidering the Gil Meche Contract At the Halfway Point

royalsreview — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 17:57:55 -0000

In his first major free agent signing as a general manager, Dayton Moore inked Gil Meche to a 5 year, $55 million dollar contract at the 2006 Winter Meetings. Ironically, it was one of Dayton's most criticized moves, both by Royals-centric fans and writers and the general baseball punditry. The most positive responses I can recall were framed as well, it may not be totally insane. Nobody really liked Meche. Nobody. The halfhearted defenders of the move had little to say about Meche, and pointed more towards the move as a sign that the Royals were willing to spend, a curious defense if you think about it.Two and a half years later, the Meche signing is one of Dayton's greatest triumphs as a general manager. In fact, given how badly so many moves have gone since, that contract is probably playing a huge role in keeping him employed.

While we all know that generally speaking the Meche contract "has worked out" the deal itself remains extremely interesting on a number of fronts. I still don't know where the Royals version of Gil Meche came from and I still don't know where the Royals figure of $11 million dollars annually came from either.

Let's take a look at the original criticisms of the Meche signing and see how they look in 2009.

Criticism One: Gil Meche Isn't Good

This is the easiest one to tackle. The foundation of the negative response to the Meche deal, most people just did not like Gil Meche going forward back in the 2007 off-season. In six years as a Mariner, Meche had a 4.65 ERA in a pitcher's park. Since returning to the Majors in 2003, Meche had failed to post an ERA+ above 100, meaning that, adjusted for park and league, he had been a below average pitcher. Despite pitching half his games in Seattle, he had a home run problem and had a checkered injury record. Both the traditional and advanced stats (despite some small gains in 2006) didn't paint an exciting picture.

Everyone knows that Meche has been good as a Royal, so we can make this quick:

	FIP	AL SP Rank -WAR
2007	4.02	16th
2008	3.61	10th
2009	4.61	44th

No one, perhaps outside of Dayton Moore, saw Gil Meche as the 10th best starter in the AL, but that's exactly what he was in 2008. 2009 is a bit troubling, as Meche has quietly slipped back to his Seattle FIP range, though he's also battled injuries all season.

Criticism Two: $11 Million a Year for Gil Meche is Too Much Money

As the numbers above underscore Gil Meche has been worth the money. The Fangraphs WAR system values his 2007 season at $17.2 million and his 2008 campaign at $21.6. Currently, Meche's 2009 has been "worth" $7.2 million. On the whole, even with 2009's downturn, he's earned his money. Mostly...

However, I do have a fundamental hesitation with using the model on Fangraphs, or similar sabermetrically derived formulas, to evaluate free agent signings. The problem is that the way that these formulas locate and define player value has little connection to the ways in which value is defined and paid for on the free agent market. So player X gets signed because of his steals, playoff experience, batting average, reliability, and lack of an arrest record, and then ends up being valuable, in reality, because of his OBP and defense. These formulas use real-world spending to set their win values, but the win values themselves are not actually being bought on the market most of the time. Finally, if there's one GM who we absolutely know is not even looking at a formula of this type, it's our beloved Dayton Moore.

So if we return to the mainstream context, W-L record, ERA, reputation in the game, etc. The Meche deal still looks like an outlier. Here is a massive list of starting pitcher contracts signed during the 2005-7 period. (I'm sure, I've left someone out, but there's no central year-by-year sorted FA database to go by.) Obviously, the figures are in millions.

	Per Year Salary	Total Value
Zito	$18	$126
Schmidt	$15.6	$47
Oswalt	$14.6	$73
Buehrle	$14	$56
Halladay	$13.3	$40
Carpenter	$12.7	$63.5
Millwood	$12	$60
Hudson	$11.7	$47
MECHE	$11	$55
Padilla	$11	$33
Westbrook	$11	$33
Lilly	$10	$40
Washburn	$9.8	$37.5
Contreras	$9.6	$29
Garland	$9.8	$29
Lowe	$9	$36

There's a little bit of everything on this list, from immediately horrific deals (Zito) to deals that were panned (Lowe) but turned out to be great. The Meche deal is by no means the best contract on this list, but it isn't the worse either. Obviously, the context varies, and a number of these contracts likely include what could be considered hometown discounts (Buehrle, Oswalt). Lastly, the free agent market wasn't the same each off-season. Still, it's an interesting picture.

What stands out to me is that back in 2006, Gil Meche maybe had a better reputation/expectation level than three or four guys on this list. Maybe. The guys in his salary neighborhood had all generally done things which had earned them traditional chops on the market.

This is where the element of mystery comes in. Where did the 5/55 figure come from? How much did the Royals overbid their nearest competitor? Obviously, we'll never know. This offseason Dayton established pretty clearly that he's can easily operate completely outside the bounds of an established market. I'd love to know what Meche's second-best offer was.

Look, even if the Royals had signed Meche for a $6 or $7 million per season deal, people still would have howled, because there was just so little enthusiasm for Meche out there. But the fact is, that he signed for an $11 million dollar annual average. This does tamper down the degree to which Meche has been a bargain. In 2008, when he was the 10th best starter in the AL, he was also around the tenth highest paid starter in the AL. (Which is itself a complicated issue considering pre-arb players, guys who signed later contracts, etc. But hey, that's the game.) This leads into the third criticism of the signing.

Criticism Three: Last Place Teams Shouldn't Sign Top Free Agents

This is a more philosophical position which is hard to pin down a defined yes/no evaluation to. The argument, which has been consistently expressed by Rob Neyer on the Meche deal, is that essentially, if you're a losing ballclub, any free agent dollars spent, above whatever imaginary minimum floor of respectability you want to set, is wasted money. Sometimes it is also put forth that Meche's $55 million could have been better spent on three $15 million dollar players, though this requires the right guys on the market and an extremely deft GM.

So the Royals were bad in '07, bad in '08, and bad in '09. They'll likely be bad in '10. So even if we assume that the Royals make the playoffs in 2011, or even, gasp, win the World Series, all in all, Gil Meche spent four years on a losing team. The money spent from 07-10, which merely helped the Royals win 4th place once or twice and kept them from losing 100 games, was largely money wasted.

This is where you get into complex and murky issues of fan psychology and establishing yourself as a player within the industry. I don't know about you, but for me, if a team sucks, they suck. It's like being pregnant. The Royals suck at 75 wins and they suck at 65 wins, so that isn't a big threshold for me. I think everyone comes down a little differently on this one. I can say that if the Royals washout again in 2010-11, I will feel that the Meche contract was more or less a waste. Not that it was Meche's fault in any way, just that overall, it was a gamble that didn't pay off. Like paying for an expensive meal on a bad date.

Regarding being a player in the industry... well, obviously this didn't happen because three years later we're still reading about -- from the same people no less -- about how the Royals have to overpay a little because they still don't have a great reputation. Perhaps it's really important for Moore to be able to strut around at the Winter Meetings, but past that, I don't see much effect.

Don't tell me you're committed to winning. Just shut the #@*# up and win.

Conclusion

Meche's five year contract carried with it measures of security and risk. Maybe the Royals would be contenders by 2008 or 2009. Starting pitching is tough to find, and for the next five years the Royals would have at least one guy there they knew about. One bad season or one minor injury wouldn't kill the contract's value.

When Meche was signed, even the harshest critics would admit that by 2010-11, Meche's annual salary of $12 million just wasn't going to be that much. To an extent, this has been the case. However, midway through Meche's deal, the recession hit, and as such, the annual exorable rise of free agent salaries took a break, especially in the non-Yankee universe. As such, some of the banked value the Royals thought they were gaining back in 2006 has not accrued.

Perhaps Meche's reliability, which is tied to all those years, has truly provided a number of people within the organization, including other players, with confidence and emotional stability. Perhaps Zack Greinke really was impressed enough with his contract to take the Royals more seriously. Perhaps Brian Bannister dreams of being part of a playoff rotation with Meche. Who knows? We've really seen very little in the way of stories like this, aside from some quotes from Greinke, who I believe is such a unique personality that it's very difficult to pin down a direct Meche benefit.

However, the flip side of the long-term deal is that you leave yourself open to risk for more years. Meche is unlikely to be worth his salary in a WAR sense in 2009 and injury concerns have resurfaced. Who knows what 2010-11 will bring for Gil Meche? The infamous $55 million dollar contract, which was mentioned every time Meche made a start in 2007, which has worked out so far, still has two years and change remaining.

Mauer's 4 RBI Not Quite Enough, Twins Lose to Royals

Adam Peterson — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 01:32:34 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

4 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Michael Cuddyer, right, talks with home plate umpire James Hoye after striking out against the Kansas City Royals to end the third inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Twins won 7-1. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

Browse more photos »

Royals 5, Twins 4

When one hitter drives in four runs and the pitchers allow a total of five runs, one would figure a team has a pretty good chance of the other eight batters driving in at least one more run. Unfortunately, when we're talking about the 2009 Minnesota Twins, expectations go right out the window. This afternoon against the Kansas City Royals, Joe Mauer drive in four runs with a double and a 3-run homer. The rest of the Twins lineup? Other than a Nick Punto double to lead off the third inning, zilch. Four singles and seven walks, not a single run.

Out of the gate, Royals leadoff batter David DeJesus tripled up the right center field gap. After a Willie Bloomquist groundout, Kansas City was up 1-0 before many of us even realized the game had started. The Twins answered with a Mauer double, scoring Denard Span to tie the game. After a 1-2-3 second inning, Twins starter Carl Pavano appeared to get into a groove. Unfortunately, Carl had an 8.64 ERA against Kansas City in 2009 for a reason. In the third, the Royals went: walk, single, strikeout, single, double to plate three runs and go up 4-1. An Alex Gordon homer in the fourth put the Royals up 5-1. I don't know about the rest of you, but I was thinking "here we go again...".

Fortunately, Mr. Joe Mauer is still a Minnesota Twin. After two outs (Redmond and Punto, go figure), Denard Span walked and Orlando Cabrera singled. Mauer followed with a home run to right center (really, this one wasn't to left field) to bring the Twins to within one run. We were back in the game.

Pavano got through a scoreless sixth, bringing up the bottom of the Twins order. Then the Twins let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers. Royals starter Gil Meche had already thrown 83 pitches through five innings, and given his 90-100 pitch limit he was pulled for reliever Robinson Tejeda. Tejeda threw a total of six pitches, walking Joe Crede and falling behind Mike Redmond, 2-0. By this point, Trey Hillman had seen enough, so he brought in Jamey Wright, who walked Mike Redmond. First and second, no one out, down one, Nick Punto at the plate. An obvious sacrifice situation. Unfortunately, Ron Gardenhire forgot one simple fact. NICK PUNTO SUCKS AT BUNTING! LNP failed to get the bunt down, striking out after bunting the third strike foul. A wasted opportunity to move the runners over. Wright walked Span to load the bases, bringing up Orlando Cabrera in a hero situation. What did he do? Grounded into a double play to end the threat and let the Royals off the hook.

By this point, it was obvious that the air was out of the Twins' tires. Over the next three innings, against the worst bullpen in the American League, all the Twins could manage were two walks. Of course, some of this was due to Trey Hillman not being allergic to throwing his closer for more than one inning, as he put his most reliable bullpen arm, Joakim Soria out for both the 8th and 9th innings to close out the game. How about that, and old-time-baseball save. Ballgame.

Studs, duds and a few notes after the jump

Notes:

Many, including me, will highlight Punto's failed bunt attempt as a key to the Twins loss this afternoon. While I think this played a key role in deflating the team, one can make an argument the inning would have ended scoreless regardless. With runners on second and third and one out, I would not have been surprised to see Wright intentionally walk Span to load the bases, at which point an O-Cab GIDP would still have ended the inning. We'll never know...
Even though he gave up five runs, Pavano pitched a gutty seven innings. He only gave up five hits and 3 walks over the seven innings, which isn't too bad. His problem was that the Royals took full advantage of their run scoring opportunities, bunching 3 hits and a walk to score three runs in the third.
The Twins, on the other hand, had more baserunners (14 vs 11), including 7 walks. In what appears to be a disturbing trend, we live and die by the long ball.

Studs:

1. Joe Mauer: 2-4, 2B, HR, 4 RBI. His batting average is now at .370 and climbing. He's batting .429/.467/1.123 in August.

2. Joakim Soria: 2 IP, BB, 2 SO. Clutch two inning save. I guess he hasn't had too many save opportunities lately.

3. Jesse Crain: 1 IP, H, 3 SO. He struck out the side in the 9th to give the meat of the Twins order one last chance at Soria. Denard Span (1-3, 2 R, 2 BB) was also deserving, but I have to give kudos to Crain.

Duds:

1. Nick Punto: That failed bunt was a killer. He did have a double though.

2. Orlando Cabrera: 1-5, 0-2 with RISP, killer GIDP. Just about anything else would have tied up the game.

3. Michael Cuddyer: 0-4, 0-2 with RISP. So much for his career success against Meche.

James Shields Gets a Win

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 06:22:45 -0000

James Shields, meet run support; run support, James Shields. Consider that an American League average offense scores about 4.8 runs per game, and you have an odd situation with Shields. In 15 of his 23 starts entering tonight, the Rays had scored 4 or less runs for him. Last year the Rays scored 4 or less in 15 of 33; and in 2007 that number was 18 of 31. All told: 48 of Shields' 87 starts were escorted with a below league average offense. 55%. Over the last three years Shields has the fourth lowest run support in the American League (4.59 per nine innings pitched) meanwhile his FIP over that span of time is lumped with names like Justin Verlander, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, and Gil Meche. He's very good, and very unlucky. He's also very human, and when guys go through droughts you have to wonder whether he begins to press a bit. He hit some turbulence tonight but his offense bailed him out. That's a welcome change.
One game into the Gregg Zaun era and I could really get used to having him around. Aesthetically his no batting gloves with socks pulled shin-high combination please. His mullet is fantastic, and his mask, ripped off a former goalie's face no doubt, is a welcome sight. His skills at the plate are pretty evident. He makes contact when he swings, doesn't go out of the zone often, has a little power, and has no qualms about taking a called strike. He sees four pitches per plate appearance on average. By comparison, Navarro sees 3.7 and Hernandez 3.5. 0.3 pitches per PA doesn't sound like much, but Joe Mauer only sees 4.2, Kevin Youkilis sees 4.5, Nick Swisher 4.3, and so on. Zaun is ridiculously patient and disciplined. He's absolutely perfect until a better option comes along.
Russ Springer and Dan Wheeler must get confused for each other a lot in public.

Evan Longoria's hamstring must be feeling better. Over the last 30 days his wOBA is back up to .372, which is basically equal to his 2008 wOBA. Speaking of Longoria, he is a mighty fine defender, isn't he?
Carrying 13 pitchers seems like a poor use of roster spots. I expected one of the LOOGY to be gone by August, and here we are, a week later, with two LOOGY, two new ROOGY, and four others in the pen. I understand the commitment to receiving value in any transaction, but they are left-handed relievers, and since we just designated another LOOGY for assignment, I don't think it's entirely likely we get much for either no matter what. The Book found that relievers are generally underworked when only carrying six-to-seven relievers, throw in another one and oh my heavens.
Speaking of which, the Rays bench on most nights will consist of Willy Aybar, Gabe Kapler, and Dioner Navarro. I'm guessing the plan is to run this crew out through September and then have Akinori Iwamura, Fernando Perez, and a merry troop of Calvary arrive for a suddenly empty bench.
A list of things I will miss about Joe Dillon: 1. His lists; 2. Mark things off this list.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Buggenhagen — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 14:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

Browse more photos »

Buyers or sellers?

The Rays are probably going to be holders before anything, but if I had to label them with a short-term title I would say they are closer to being buyers than they're sellers. The Rays are only 4 ½ games behind the first place Yankees and still have a few holes they could fill prior to the deadline.

Short-term need

On the surface the Rays probably have one immediate short-term need, and that's catcher. The rest of their infield is pretty stout. They had all-stars at every infield position, excluding catcher. Dioner Navarro has been nothing short of a disappointment for the Rays this year .226/.253/.328. Additionally, his backup Michel Hernandez has been just as bad, if not worse .256/.291/.329. The Rays more than anything need some guys in house to start performing at a more consistent level. Players like B.J. Upton, Pat Burrell, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Niemann and David Price have been very inconsistent in their play throughout the entire season. If these players settle in and start performing at a more consistent level the Rays will be fine, and should find themselves right in the thick of the postseason race. However, don't expect the Rays to be very active. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays didn't make any short-term quick fixes.

Long-term need

The Rays probably have the most talented young team in all of baseball, so it's tough to say what exactly their long-term need would be. Probably more than anything the Rays long-term needs are more financially focused. They're going to have to begin the process of figuring out how to keep this team together. They already completed the first part, which was signing third baseman Evan Longoria to a long-term contract, but over the course of the next few years they'll have several stars ready to hit the free agent market. In the next two years alone the Rays have roughly 76% of their current roster up for free agency including Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Akinori Iwamura, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson, Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler, Jeff Niemann, Randy Choate, B.J. Upton, J.P. Howell, Matt Garza, Ben Zobrist, and Joe Dillon. Things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa, the Rays bubble may be in jeopardy of bursting real soon.

Big leaguers on the market?

I don't expect the Rays to have any big leaguers on the market; they're in contention and really have no reason to deal anybody on their current major league roster. However, as we've said things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa soon, so maybe if someone blew them away with an offer they might trade someone like either Scott Kazmir or Carl Crawford, but it's unlikely. Kazmir just signed a new three-year deal, where he is scheduled to make $6 million in 2009, $8 million in 2010, $12 million in 2011 and a club option for $13.5 million in 2012 (which has a $2.5 million buyout). Crawford's current contract has a club option for $10 million next year, which could increase to $11.5 million with escalators. Both contracts are pretty expensive for the Rays so it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Rays to listen to offers, but I wouldn't expect them to deal either player.

Minor league strength

The Rays minor league system has thinned out a bit, which is understandable given how many major league stars they have produced over the last few years. They still have a few young potential stars, which for the most part seem to be pitchers. Of course the cornerstone of their young pitching is former number one overall selection David Price. However, Price isn't the only young pitcher the Rays have. They also have two really good young pitchers in Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. John Sickels of Minor League Ball considers Davis a "Gil Meche" type, and Hellickson he says has "Excellent combination of command with solid stuff."

One area that the Rays probably need to address is looking to add some depth to their system with position players. They have one really good position player in shortstop Tim Beckham (2008 number one overall selection). Beckham has struggled a bit so far in his career, but he's only 19, and most scouts' think he will come around soon. He's regarded as an excellent shortstop with great bat speed, which should lead to average power in his future.

In an effort to begin adding to that much needed depth the Rays used their first five draft selections in the 2009 draft on position players, which includes their first round pick, high school second baseman LeVon Washington.

Take on short-term money to win?

The Rays could probably take on some money, but it could only be a very small amount. However, I doubt the Rays are thrilled about the idea of taking on additional money, but if a deal came along that made them considerably better they might take a shot.

For more coverage of the Rays check out DRays Bay.

Catching up with Sam Mellinger on the Royals, the Rany Ban, and an Increasingly Controversial Season

royalsreview — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Owen-Betancourt wedding bells? There is something of a precedent here... Kansas City Royals third base coach Dave Owen congratulates Willie Bloomquist after hitting a solo home run off Minnesota Twins' Glen Perkins in the fifth inning of a baseball game Saturday, May 2, 2009 in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Browse more photos »

Sam Mellinger, part of the Kansas City Star's excellent baseball team since 2006, was kind enough to answer a few questions over email this weekend from St. Louis. You can also read his work online on his Ball Star blog. In his third interview (the first two can be found here and here) with Royals Review, Sam talks about the tumultuous 2009 season, the possibility of further trades, and what we should think of Dayton Moore.

RR: I can't recall a trade that went over worse, seemingly with everyone, than the Betancourt deal. What's your take?

Mellinger: I'm not really sure what I can add that hasn't been said already by many others, even before I (finally) put something on my blog. It's a bad trade, even if Cortes doesn't make it, because Betancourt is a bad player. The move tells me the Royals think they have too many holes in other places, and that finding their (ahem) shortstop here lets them focus in other areas.

I actually don't think it's as bad as most, but what I mean by that is that I don't think it's the worst trade in the history of the world ever, and something that puts all of humanity in danger. But in this whole thing, here is the most depressing part: Betancourt makes the Royals better at the big league level.

One more thing: was just talking with someone about Betancourt, and the obvious joke about Angel Berroa finally coming back to KC. I know I'm the reporter and I'm supposed to know this, but can you tell me if Dave Owen has a daughter Betancourt can marry?

RR: Does Mike Aviles have a future with the Royals?

Mellinger: Sure he does. The question is what kind of future. The feeling I get is that this is a very "Show-Me" situation, still. Even after what he did last year, scouts have almost no respect for him. But I also don't believe the Royals are entirely sold on Alberto Callaspo, whose defense continues to wipe out much of what he's capable of offensively. I do think that the Royals -- assuming they don't add a 2B -- are willing to sort of write off Aviles' bad 2009 as a product of that injury, and put him in a gotsta-prove-it situation where he's competing with Callaspo (and maybe Bloomquist?) for the starting 2B job next year. It sure would be a cool story if he made it.

RR: The Freel acquisition was generally seen as a portent of future trades to come, but post-Betancourt, it appears that Moore is again trying to position the team for 2010. Do you think we'll see any major trades later this month?

Mellinger: I know they're trying. The feeling in the front office seems to be that the season was absolutely torpedoed by injuries. They really thought they left spring training with a team capable -- emphasize capable -- of competing in the division. They still believe that, injuries aside, which is why they won't break up the Meche-Greinke-Soria nucleus. The problem, of course (on a couple levels) is that they just don't have a lot of valuable pieces outside
the group they won't trade. Teahen could help somebody. I tend to think they should sell high on Bannister. But nobody's taking on Guillen, who has a limited no-trade clause in his contract but a full no-trade clause in his performance, and DeJesus' down year has deflated his value.

This is also a good place to mention I'm not sharing the optimism. I've written about this on the blog, but if you look at the contracts, there isn't a lot of money coming off, and what does come off will likely be canceled out by arbitration guys getting raises. That means not much payroll flexibility for a team that needs it to get better. The two options then seem to be trades, or David Glass approving an even higher payroll one year after approving a 20 percent payroll hike produced one of the most disappointing seasons ever. You're a smart guy, so I won't tell you which is more likely.

RR: You're able to interact with readers on your blog and you've taken issue with some of the persistent complaints that get voiced on blogs and message boards. Do you sense that fans (and maybe media) are growing less patient with the Royals and less willing to give them a pass? Or is it just that people have more avenues to complain?

Mellinger: Absolutely fans are growing less patient, and absolutely fans have more avenues to complain (or praise). I also think it's important to remember that while there very likely has never been a better time to be a baseball fan, with all the information and analysis and everything else out there, it's probably dangerous to read message boards and blog comments and assume it's a perfect representation of how the entire fan base thinks.

The complaints we all read on those boards and blogs are mostly very justified. The Royals bumped their win total each year under Dayton, so I do believe that earns something of a benefit of the doubt. Barring lots of forfeits by opposing teams, that streak will almost certainly end this season. That's the most important thing, and not just because of the payroll hike or new stadium. The honeymoon between Dayton and Royals fans is very clearly over, another thing I've written about on the blog.

This might be a good place to mention that I absolutely love the interaction with fans who are nice enough to read what we do. E-mail, Twitter, the comments section on my blog, message boards in other places, I think it's essential for what I try to do. And that's good because I really enjoy it. I've found the vast majority of readers to be smart, friendly, and willing to respectfully disagree.

There's also a selfish element to all this, because I think the interactions and reading blogs and message boards and everything else makes me better and what I'm trying to do.

RR: You were somewhat critical of both parties regarding the Rany Ban. Since the Royals have come in for loads of criticism already, can you talk a little about the mistakes that you believe Rany made in his post on the Royals medical staff?

Mellinger: Again, I'm not sure what I can add that I didn't put in that blog post. I probably spent more time on that post than just about any other, trying to make sure my thoughts came across clear. I think and hope each side feels I was at least fair and accurate. I talked to Rany and Swanson both, before and since, and I think whatever regrets each guy has do not change their bigger stance on the matter.

Since you're asking about Rany and not the Royals...I think Rany had an intriguing larger point that was clouded a bit by some holes in his arguments, which were made greater by focusing on the trainer (who really is low on the totem pole of decision making) and not at least making a phone call. Then after the Royals overreacted, I think Rany misrepresented what was happening with some of his wording. I think some would be surprised how often reporters and sources have big arguments on this level or higher, but they are usually handled privately.

The Royals never "banned" Rany, and were not capable or interested in canceling his get-together. I haven't talked to Rany or Swanson since all this stuff was hot, but at that time, I still felt there was a chance someone from the Royals could come down and meet Rany's group.

But, like I said, the bulk of the blame goes to the Royals.

RR: When you talk to people around baseball, is there still the old consensus that Dayton Moore can and will rebuild the Royals?

Mellinger: Yes on "can," mostly yes on "will." Some offseason moves are very clearly backfiring, and there's not a whole to add about how miserable this season is turning out. It may very well cost Trey Hillman his job.

The Titanic continues to play three hours a night on Fox Sports KC, sometimes even in HD, so it's hard to keep in mind that the most important stuff is not what's happening at the K, and not even what's going on in Omaha or Springdale, but Wilmington and Burlington. The focus of Dayton and his peeps has always been player development, and the two drafts they've been in charge of were all mostly praised.

In the short-term, things look pretty bleak around the Royals. But in the long-term, Mike Jacobs is irrelevant if Eric Hosmer turns out. Yuniesky Betancourt is irrelevant if Jeff Bianchi turns out. Mitch Maier is irrelevant if Derrick Robinson turns out. Miguel Olivo is irrelevant if one of the catchers turns out and, to be fair, Gil Meche is irrelevant if Danny Duffy/Aaron Crow/Mike Montgomery/etc DON'T turn out.

But at the very least, the disaster we're seeing at the big league level is taking the shine off the Dayton regime. They should be better than this, even with injuries, and if Trey does end up losing his job (or next season begins with everyone thinking Trey SHOULD have lost his job) it's a major hit on Dayton.

RR: Lastly, I think many people would regard you as a generally positive voice. The 2010 Royals don't figure to be too much different than this year's team, especially after the Betancourt trade. Does 2010 matter for you in terms of evaluating the current administration? Or, is this still a much longer term rebuild?

Mellinger: Yeah, and I think 2009 matters, too. I guess I should've read this question before typing my answer to that last question. My bad.

Look, the Royals are at least still telling themselves they had a division contender when they left spring training (when my prediction of 78-79 wins seemed lower than 90% of fan predictions). Lots of factors have ruined that. If Dayton and his people want to take another shot at it in 2010 with mostly the same team, I'll be interested to see what happens. And if 2010 turns out even close to as bad as 2009 is going right now, then we're all going to feel not just like we're watching Groundhog Day, but keep popping in the DVD every night after dinner.

I've been mostly positive about the bigger direction of the franchise in the last three years, because it's been getting mostly better. Next year will be Dayton's fourth full season, and he's got a big boy job, so, yeah, that's past being able to evaluate a lot of things. Full, final evaluation? Probably not.

We all like to think about Tampa going worst-to-first in a single bound, and I'm guilty of that, too, but it ignores the 10 years of losing that came before. Colorado made the jump to the World Series a few years back, but that came after six years of losing. Both those turnarounds were built on player development (the Rockies had, I believe 17 homegrown players on their WS roster) and player development almost always takes time, no matter what Albert Pujols and Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun would lead us to believe.

I'm not saying we should all wait until Dayton's been around 10 years or even six. I'm just saying that the important stuff is how his drafted and developed prospects progress, and that part of it needs time. What doesn't need as much time is to judge how the current administration put together a big league roster.

Thanks again to Sam for his time.