SB Nation - Zack Greinke

2009 SBNation Awards: Cy Young Award

Al — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:00:29 -0000

by Jeff Chiu - AP

Someday, Tim Lincecum will look older than 15. For now, he has to settle for Cy Young Awards.

For the Cy Young Award, Mike & I agreed on our ballots right down the line -- and neither of us voted for the SBN winner, Tim Lincecum, who got 18 first-place votes. Carpenter and Wainwright appeared to split the Cardinal vote down the middle, so neither could win. No Cubs received any votes; none was expected to.

The AL voting was more predictable; you might only be surprised by the order of the runners-up.

BCB ballots:

Al: 1) Carpenter 2) Lincecum 3) Wainwright   
Mike: 1) Carpenter 2) Lincecum 3) Wainwright

National League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

American League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	28	1	-	143
2	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	17	6	57
3	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	8	9	33
4	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	1	2	11	22
5	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	1	2	5
6	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	1	1

SBN Baseball Awards: Cy Young

Randy Booth — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:00:28 -0000

by Tony Gutierrez - AP

7 months ago: Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Zack Greinke delivers to the Seattle Mariners in the second inning of a spring training baseball game in Peoria, Ariz., Sunday, March 29, 2009. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

View full size photo »

Now we're getting to the big boy awards.

We've given away our Manager and Rookie of the Year awards, but today we reveal the winner of the Cy Youngs.

Maybe there will be a shocker. Maybe us bloggers found out that Zack Greinke doesn't believe in Santa Claus. Or maybe Tim Lincecum's pot bust made us all revert our votes and give him 3rd placers.

Maybe, but probably not.

American League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	28	1	-	143
2	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	17	6	57
3	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	8	9	33
4	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	1	2	11	22
5	C.C. Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	1	2	5
6	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	1	1

Did I vote for Lester? Perhaps. I honestly can't remember. But hey! He was in the hunt!

National League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadephia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

Marijuana does a body good, apparently.

Royals Links: Is a Zack Greinke Cy Young Imminent?

royalsreview — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 05:15:53 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Zack Greinke smiles and looks at the scoreboard after getting Chicago White Sox's Jim Thome to swing at a pitch during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Chicago, Wednesday, April 8, 2009. Is Greinke about to become the 2009 Cy Young? (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Are we building up to a Zack Greinke Cy Young? Greinke picked up another award late last week, seemingly building momentum for his 2009 Cy Young campaign... only that the voting for the Cy took place weeks ago and is already decided.

Only time will tell.

Royals:

Baseball:

Grab Bag:

Fantasy Baseball: Looking at K/9 and GB%

raygu — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:35:11 -0000

Coming into my 2009 drafts, I found a very interesting article over at www.thebaseballanalysts.com which categorized pitchers by their K/9 and GB ratios. The importance of this for roto/fantasy owners is knowing how your pitchers get guys out. Pitchers with high K/9 and high GB ratios usually provide owners with very good win, ERA and WHIP stats, and they are the ones to target come draft day. The reason is they are getting guys out via the strikeout and inducing a high percentage of ground balls which more often than not results in an out. And ground balls don't leave the ballpark.

With that said, I provide you with the top 25 K/9 pitchers in 2009 with their corresponding GB ratios, along with some other advanced pitching stats, courtesy of www.fangraphs.com, after the jump:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	47.50%	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	36.00%	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	47.70%	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41
Yovani Gallardo	9.89	4.56	2.17	45.00%	1.02	0.223	1.31	0.288	77.90%	3.73
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	41.70%	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87
Jonathan Sanchez	9.75	4.85	2.01	40.70%	1.05	0.227	1.37	0.29	72.60%	4.24
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	39.40%	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	40.00%	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	38.30%	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	44.70%	0.97	0.248	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38
Max Scherzer	9.19	3.33	2.76	41.80%	1.06	0.257	1.34	0.323	68.70%	4.12
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	42.90%	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14
A.J. Burnett	8.48	4.22	2.01	42.80%	1.09	0.248	1.4	0.302	75.90%	4.04
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	44.90%	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	47.20%	1.06	0.249	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86
Matt Garza	8.38	3.5	2.39	39.70%	1.11	0.236	1.26	0.284	75.00%	3.95
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	50.30%	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23
Chad Billingsley	8.21	3.94	2.08	45.30%	0.78	0.238	1.32	0.294	71.00%	4.03
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	50.70%	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	53.40%	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	52.50%	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	44.70%	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77
Johan Santana	7.88	2.48	3.17	35.70%	1.08	0.249	1.21	0.296	78.00%	3.13
Aaron Harang	7.87	2.38	3.3	34.90%	1.33	0.289	1.41	0.339	75.70%	4.21
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	50.20%	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79

A couple takeaways from this analysis for me is that Jonathan Sanchez may be due for a breakout year in 2010 if he can continue pitching like he did in the seond half of 2009.

Another takeaway is I would be very afraid of drafting Johan_Santana in 2010 because you will have to spend a high draft pick or $25+ in roto leagues for a guy whose peripheral stats are taking a turn for the worse. His K/9 have decreased in each of the last 2 years, and his BB/9 and HR/9 have increased in the last 2 years.

A couple of Colorado Rockie pitchers broke out in 2009, and I am not sure we have seen the best of Ubaldo_Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa yet. Both strikeout more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and induce ground balls at a pretty high rate in the case for Jiminez, and JDLR's GB ratio isn't that bad either. If they can increase their LOB% in 2010, they will make fantasy owners real happy.

Finally, I have already wrote about Ricky Nolasco, so I will move onto another pitcher whose peripherals scream that he could come cheap in 2010 drafts. That name is Max Scherzer, and he is an intriguing name, as he struck out more than 9 batters per 9 innings, and induced ground balls at a 42% clip in 2009. His LOB% was pretty low in 2009, so I expect a very solid season from Scherzer in 2010.

Poll

Who will get drafted first in 2010: Jonathan Sanchez or Max Scherzer?

Scherzer

57 votes

Sanchez

12 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 FIP Leaders

raygu — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Gregory Smith - AP

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

View full size photo »

I know what you are asking-what the heck is FIP? According to The Hardball Times site, FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.

With that explained, I give you the 2009 FIP leaders among starting pitchers courtesy of www.fangraphs.com:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77
Chris Carpenter	6.73	1.78	3.79	0.33	0.223	1.01	0.272	79.50%	2.24	2.78
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23	3.06
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79	3.08
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49	3.09
Cliff Lee	7.03	1.67	4.21	0.66	0.273	1.24	0.326	76.20%	3.22	3.11
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23
Joel Pineiro	4.42	1.14	3.89	0.46	0.265	1.14	0.293	66.90%	3.49	3.27
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47	3.36
CC Sabathia	7.71	2.62	2.94	0.7	0.233	1.15	0.284	71.40%	3.37	3.39
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02	3.54
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77	3.61

One guy that stands out for me is Ricky Nolasco and his 5.06 ERA. Based on his outstanding peripherals, his FIP-3.35 is almost 2 runs lower than his ERA of 5.06. He will be someone to target on the cheap in 2010. His LOB% of 61%, or runners stranded, is extremely low and should increase in 2010, which will lower his ERA.

Joel Pineiro is another guy that stands out only for his low LOB% of 66.9%. His FIP wasn't much lower than his ERA, so I have to explain that is due to how low WHIP of 1.14.

Poll

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

Yes, his FIP and peripherals are still solid.

45 votes

No, he gives up too many hits with RISP.

6 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

Morning Prowl: Granderson the Union Man, Missing Miguel Cabrera, and Creating Trade Rumors

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 10:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

How will Aubrey Huff's terribly disappointing stint with the Detroit Tigers affect his value on the free agent market this winter?

Browse more photos »

Curtis Granderson was quoted in this ESPN.com piece by Amy K. Nelson about the $11 million compensation package Donald Fehr will receive when he steps down as head of the MLB Players Association. As a member of the players' union sub-committee, Granderson explained the thinking that went into the decision.

DesigNate Robertson posts its final grades for the 2009 Detroit Tigers. How do those marks compare to Rogo's midseason grades? Well, you have to click over and see.

MLB Trade Rumors wonders what the market for Aubrey Huff will be this offseason. No Tigers fans seemed to have commented in the discussion. Too soon? Or too painful, after Huff's .189/.265/.302 batting line in 117 plate appearances with Detroit.

This is a premium article at Baseball Prospectus, but you can read Kevin Goldstein's thoughts on Cale Iorg (and his hitting struggles) and former Tigers prospect Andrew Miller, both of whom are playing in the Arizona Fall League, before running into the paywall.

Speaking of Miller, Lynn Henning shares some thoughts from a colleague who covers the Florida Marlins. The general consensus in Miami is that the Tigers made out way better on that Miguel Cabrera deal.

Detroit Tigers Den (we're overdue in welcoming this new addition to the Tigersosphere) takes a month-by-month look at the Tigers' 2010 schedule. July and August look strong. But that Interleague Play home schedule in June is ugly.

Coming up with trade rumors is a popular pastime during the offseason, and there was a ridiculous one circulating from Bleacher Report over the weekend about Zack Greinke and the Brewers. That compelled Sam Mellinger to write about just how difficult it is to come up with a viable trade proposal, including a conversation he once had with a Royals executive on the subject.

We're behind on this (and this was mentioned in the comments of Tuesday's open thread), but The Sporting News named White Sox third baseman Gordon Beckham as its American League Rookie of the Year. Beckham batted .270/.347/.460 with 14 homers and 63 RBIs in 103 games (430 plate appearances) this season, after being called up to the majors in early June.

Anthony Castrovince looks at the four candidates to be the Cleveland Indians' next manager. That list does not include former Tiger Travis Fryman, who apparently wasn't invited back for a second interview. Former Tiger Torey Lovullo is among the four finalists, however.

One of the other finalists, Dodgers hitting coach Don Mattingly, was profiled by Nick Cafardo in last Sunday's Boston Globe. Mattingly could be in line to take over for Joe Torre in L.A. after next season.

For its other awards so far, TSN named Greinke as its AL Pitcher of the Year and the Angels' Mike Scioscia as the AL Manager of the Year.

As mentioned yesterday in the FanShots, Rudy Jaramillo reached agreement with the Chicago Cubs to become their hitting coach. And he got paid. Jaramillo received a three-year deal from the Cubs worth $2.42 million.

Over at Twinkie Town, Jon Marthaler wonders if Joe Nathan has lost something off his fastball, whether it was at the end of this season or over the last couple of seasons. (Tiger Town just said, "Yes, please.")

Purple Row Awards: American League Cy Young Award

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:14:34 -0000

View full size photo »

As we continue our quest to award the big trophies to the deserving players, our eyes turn away from home and to the American League, where pitchers play half of a game and are given back rubs in between innings.

The writers on the staff had very little problem with finding a winner, as this particular pitcher received a unanimous vote from the Purple Row Brass.

Carl Pavano

#48 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1976

HA! Nah, I'm joking with you. Seriously, the winner is the following pitcher:

1st Place - Zack Greinke

#23 / Pitcher / Kansas City Royals

Height: 6-2

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 21, 1983

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Zack Greinke	16-8	33	33	6	3	0	0	229.1	195	64	55	11	51	242	2.16	1.07

Zack Greinke. What comes to your mind when you think about Zack Greinke? Ask me this a couple of years ago, and the first thing that comes to my mind is "man, what a shame. So much sheer talent and the kid can't keep his head on his shoulders. What a shame, I'd kill to have a guy who could throw a 95 mph sinker."

I've seen Greinke pitch once. May 20, 2007, Greinke pitched 4 outs of relief against Colorado, striking out 2, allowing no hits and walking nobody. Nothing terribly special, but it was a sign that he might be ready to pitch as a major leaguer again.

While 2007 and 2008 definitely showed signs of improvement for young Greinke, 2009 proved to be something nearly otherworldly.

Greinke posted a 2.16 ERA over 229 1/3 innings in the 2009 campaign. He struck out 242 batters, walked only 51, and never had to intentionally walk ANYONE.

Thanks to a pitiful Royals team this season, his record was only 16-8. He made 26 Quality Starts (6.0IP or more, 3.0ER or less), out of 33 starts. He struck out 8 or more batters in 16 starts. 9 or more in 9 starts, 10 or more in 5 starts, including 1 game where he punched out 15. He pitched 5 games in which he allowed zero runs, 3 of which being complete games.

Greinke pitched 29 innings in 2009 before allowing a single run. He pitched 75 innings before his ERA cracked 1. He pitched 121 1/3 innings before it passed 2.

But the real story of Zack Greinke is in the half-season splits.

First half Greinke: 10-5, 2.12 ERA, 6.14 K/BB.

Second half Greinke: 6-3, 2.21 ERA, 3.77 K/BB.

Ok I'm kidding about that. You can see that his SHEER DOMINANCE dropped off a bit as the halves changed, but he was still pretty dynamite.

For the SABR crowd, Greinke's season line looks like this: 2.16 ERA(1^st), 2.33 FIP (1^st), 2.35 tRA (1^st), 3.48 tRA* (1^st), 4.75 K/BB (2^nd to Halladay), 9.50 K/9 (3^rd behind Verlander and Lester), 6.07 WPA (1^st), 61.98 RE24 (1^st - next highest was 44.85, Halladay).

I don't see how there's any other option than Greinke, personally. I'm thrilled to see a troubled young guy find his stride, and really fill out the dominance the Royals saw in him when they drafted him.

Greinke's 4-year, $38M extension may be the only smart decision Dayton Moore has made in the past few years.

Our runners up:

2nd Place - Justin Verlander

#35 / Pitcher / Detroit Tigers

Height: 6-5

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Feb 20, 1983

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Justin Verlander	19-9	35	35	3	1	0	0	240.0	219	99	92	20	63	269	3.45	1.17

3rd Place - Felix Hernandez

#34 / Pitcher / Seattle Mariners

Height: 6-3

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 08, 1986

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Felix Hernandez	19-5	34	34	2	1	0	0	238.2	200	81	66	15	71	217	2.49	1.14

Here is how the voting broke down:

AL Cy	RMN	PF	togb	Russ	Silver	Jabbs
1	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke
2	Justin Verlander	Felix Hernandez	CC Sabathia	Felix Hernandez	Felix Hernandez	Justin Verlander
3	Roy Halladay	Justin Verlander	Justin Verlander	Justin Verlander	Roy Halladay	Felix Hernandez

If I could've I would've given 3rd place to both Halladay and King Felix. That kid is also bomb, and will be a Cy Young winner before you know it.

Tomorrow, Jabberwocky will be telling us about who won the NL Cy Young award, why he did, and why nobody can take away the way he wears his hat.

2009 AL MVP Showdown: Greinke vs. Mauer vs. Mr. X, or, the Race for Second Place, or, Ken Rosenthal, Avert Your Eyes

devil_fingers — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:31:12 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

"First you say that One Man Five Tools is a better fielder than me, and now this Greinke stuff? What's next? Saying I less valuable than some utility man? Save me, Ken Rosenthal!"

Browse more photos »

Much of the debate about the AL MVP this year (well, aside for the silly aspects of it) has focused on position players such as Joe Mauer, Kevin Youkilis, Derek Jeter, and dark horse candidate Yuniesky Betancourt. But along with a few others, I've argued (for a while now) that Zack Greinke probably deserves to win it. In light of my post on catcher defense earlier this week (andin the comments following), some people understandably thought that Joe Mauer's impressive +4.3 showing put him over the top, if he wasn't already.

Well, I hate to go Ken Rosenthal on you, but Mauer isn't the obvious choice. And by that, I mean that (on my WAR calculations) he obviously isn't the right choice for AL MVP. What isn't obvious is whether or not he's even number two...

Not This Again!

Okay, that last sentence was pretty rhetorically charged. The neat thing about Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is that people can do it in different ways -- using different pitching stats, team-adjusted linear weights or not, league adjustments, etc. What I want to do here is simply to "show my work" for the position players to back up my claim that, at least on my numbers (some of which are borrowed from FanGraphs for convenience), Greinke is the clearcut choice, and #2 isn't.

Again, Rally or others may have something different on their calculations, depending on their fielding stats, how Greinke's RA and defense comare, etc. (although my catcher defense results probably aren't that different from what his will be).

I've already shown my work for Greinke in an earlier post and the various posts on pitcher value scattered throughout this site. I want to show that I extend every courtesy to Mauer -- the same adjustments for the AL, the same run-to-win conversion, and including everything.

For Greinke, I concluded that he was worth 9.52 Wins Above Replacement this season. It's important to keep in mind that although he only saved ~85.2 runs above replacement, that pitchers effect their run environment, so they get a customized run-to-win conversion so that they are valued properly.

I'm going to use FanGraphs linear weights and positional adjustments, as I'm fine with those and they are park adjusted. However, I don't think they adjust for AL/NL differences in replacement level yet. I also think they use one run-to-win conversion for all position players. The latter isn't that big of a deal, but since I used the AL run-to-win conversion for Greinke (customized, of course), I should use it for Mauer, too.

Valuing Mauer

Let's take a look at Mauer's Value section at FanGraphs. He was an incredible +56 hitter, and gets a +5.4 positional adjustment for the time he spent at catcher and DH. For playing time ("replacement"), FanGraphs currently does +20 runs per 600 PA (I believe). To get the league adjustment right (as we did with Greinke's win %), we'll change that to +25 runs (should be 2.5 Wins, but runs is actually more generous to Mauer and more straightforward). Mauer has 606 PAs this season, for 21.64 replacement runs (I know two decimal places is silly, but I did it for Greinke...). He also gets +4.3 runs for fielding, as noted yesterday.

But, as I commented in the earlier thread (to some consternation), his baserunning wasn't great this season. People were surprised, but check out Baseball Prospectus's EqBRR for the Twins. We have to take out the stolen base runs since FanGraphs linear weights (aka wOBA) already includes that. So for Mauer, we get -3.7 EqBRR - -0.8 EqSBR = -2.9 BsR.

So, add it all together to get RAR: +56 Hitting + 4.3 Fielding - 2.9 Baserunning +5.4 Position + 21.64 replacement = 84.44 Runs Above Replacement.

That's great, but we need to convert to wins. The formula I use is from Tom Tango: (lgRA*1.5)+3. Yes, there's a PythagenPat version that is more accurate, but this is close enough and is more easy to integrate with the dynamic run-to-win conversion, and FanGraphs uses this, as well. For the AL, the lgRA is 4.75. so the Run-to-Win voncerson is about 10.13.

84.44 divided by 10.13 = 8.34 Wins Above Replacement for Joe Mauer in 2009. That's outstanding. It would be like Albert Pujols 3rd best season (off the top of my head).But it's more than a win below the 9.52 we got for Greinke. Hey, as Buzz Aldrin might say, second comes right next to first...

But wait...

Mr. X

Mr. X. also plays in the American league. Mr. X was 40.2 batting runs above average in 2009. He was a +25.9 fielder. Although he isn't a great basestealer, he was still +0.4 as a baserunner. He played all over the place, and had a -1.1 positional adjustment. He had 599 AL PAs, meaning 21.39 replacement runs.

+40.2 Hitting + 25.9 Fielding +0.4 Baserunning -1.1 Positional +21.39 Replacement = 86.99 Runs Above Replacement, or 8.59 Wins Above Replacement.

So who is this Mr. X? Derek Jeter? Kevin Youklis? Um, no, it's Ben "Zorilla" Zobrist.

Final Thought

I look forward to see what Rally (and hopefully others!) come up with after the season. I'm just giving you my take Sure, here's lots of ambiguity on the fielding stats for these guys, and they're pretty close.

But according to these numbers, the debate about Mauer should be whether or not he or Zobrist should be the runner-up to Greinke.

Of course, in a way, all three players deserve to win the MVP. But in another, more accurate way, Greinke deserves to win it.

Bloody Sox Laundry, 10/7 - NERDZ RULE

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 09:15:30 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Freakin' dweebs, calling me Mr. Franklin.

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Baseball is basically numbers feigning athletic contests. Let's see what people can spot in this charade:

Umpire Billy Evans - John Henry - NESN.com

That's some nice research their, Mr. Owner. Interesting breakdown of seeding in the playoffs and how it affects chances to win the WS.

A Look at the Numbers From the Red Sox' Season - NESN.com

Going to be a lot of these. Waiting for a sabermetric flavor.

Terry Francona and Mike Scioscia Two of the Best, But Who's Better? - NESN.com

A pretty popular topic around these parts - not going to be a lot of disagreement among us, but does the Mainstream Media agree?

Is Daisuke tipping? - Sons of Sam Horn

Hmm... Excellent work.

Prince Albert and a Grande Exit - Heard It From Hoard

Decade Triple Crown; bit of a stretch, but still impressive.

Yankees (9/5 Odds) Favorite to Win World Series - Full Count

I'll leave it up to you to decide whether it's ethical or not.

Zack Greinke's 2009 in the Stream of Time: The 11 Greatest Seasons by Starting Pitchers Since Pedro's 1999 - Driveline Mechanics

I can't stop drooling.

Which means it's time for me to get off the computer - Twins/MFY game today, so Randy should have a thread up for that. In the meantime, comments, links, movie discussions are all welcome in this humble thread.

Zack Greinke's 2009 in the Stream of Time: The 11 Greatest Seasons by Starting Pitchers Since Pedro's 1999

devil_fingers — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 16:40:18 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

Don't worry, Miggy, I use the time waiting for you to retrieve the ball from the backstop (at a baseball game) to recalculate my WAR with respect to Pedro's 1999.

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Well, it's pretty much over. Pretty much. Unless Justin Verlander throws 18 shutout innings of relief in today's game, Zack Greinke has got the "real" (i.e., "internet") Cy Young locked up (and, as I've been saying for a while, he should probably be the MVP, but I'll get to that later). But that was pretty clear a long time ago to most of us. The real question is "where does Zack' s2009 rank in history?" Earlier this season, I broached the question as to how Zack's incredible 2009 might end up ranking among the great seasons. He's done for the year, and we have the league average pretty much set. Given that I'm apparently the only person who posts here anymore, I didn't want to let another day go by. So it's time to bust out the ol' WAR-o-meter.

Although most people understand (particularly in Greinke's case) that pitcher wins are irrelevant, expressing a pitcher's greatness seems difficult. Do we cite ERA? FIP? Number of innings thrown in games started? WHIP? Number of homers allowed? How do we account for the defense behind the pitcher? And so on. If you haven't been paying much attention to on-line sabermetrics the last few years (or just want a refresher), I recommend taking a look at my earlier column on Pitcher Value (which has lots of informative links, too) and my later thoughts that were implemented in a season preview series. In short, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) gives us the tools to properly weight a pitchers performance not only with respect to his rate of excellent, but the amount of playing time in park, league, and year context.

Here's the brief methodological rundown:

I chose Pedro's 1999 because we all know how great that season is supposed to be. It also gives us a neat "1999-2009 window" in which to look at pitching performances. I used "top 11" because Zack's 2009 made it into the top 10 (but where?), and I wanted to see who he "bumped."
I use Colin Wyer's BaseRuns-FIP (BsR-FIP), which combines the defense-independence of FIP with the dynamism and accuracy of BaseRuns. It is scaled to RA rather than ERA (and thus more accurately reflects pitcher value).
Value is based on a Win% generated using PythagenPat in relation to the league (AL/NL) average RA.
Different replacement levels are used to reflect the difference in league talent: for starting pitchers. I use .390 for the NL and .370 for the AL.
I use terpsfans' five-year, regressed park factors; I don't think KC will have changed that much from 2008 to 2009.
Adjustments are made for each pitcher's influence on his run environment through a dynamic run-to-win conversion for each individual pitcher.
Pre-Greinke raw data is taken from the Baseball Databank and calculations done using MySQL.
Just for the record, I know it is silly to calculate WAR to two decimal places, but it helps with sorting out the rankings here.

The basic idea is just like other versions of WAR, like that at FanGraphs. There are some differences -- I use PythganPat (I don't know if FanGraphs does yet), BsR-FIP rather than FIP, and I separate replacement levels (FanGraphs will probably do that soon), among other things. I also can go as far back in history as I want... but anyway, enough yakkin', yet's start ranking the best 11 seasons by starting pitcher, 1999-!

11. Roy Halladay, 2008. 8.76 WAR, .693 Win %, 3.08 adjusted BsR-FIP, 246 IP, 33 GS. Well, Doc may have gotten the All-Star start over Greinke, but Zack bumped him from this all-important list. This is the most recent season on the list other than Zack's 2009. Ominously for Zack, Halladay was the best pitcher in baseball and didn't win the Cy...

10. Johan Santana, 2004. 8.82 WAR, .734 Win % 2.98 adjusted BsR-FIP, 228 IP, 34 GS. It's sort of surprising that this season didn't rank higher, as it's Johan's best of all time according to my rankings at this point. A great season with the Twins, though, as he rightly won the Cy Young (he went 20-6, so that helped).

9. Roy Halladay, 2003. 8.94 WAR, .685 Win %, 3.28 adjusted BsR-FIP, 266 IP, 36 GS. Doc did win the Cy Young this year, and rightly so. If you buy into WAR, this shows how valuable being a workhorse is; while Sanatana's 2004 was more dominating per inning, Doc gave his team a lot more innings. Doc "won" 22 games for the Blue Jays this season. I saw the last game of the season, and Doc started it. It was a relatively fun season in Toronto overall. Vernon Wells and Carlos Delgado had monster offensive season. Delgado hit four home runs on September 25 against the (then) Devil Rays.

And now there's a (relatively) big jump in WAR amounts...

8. Zack Greinke, 2009. 9.52 WAR, .742 Win %, 2.73 adjusted BsR-FIP, 229.3 IP, 33 GS. There it is. I imagine some fans will be disappointed that Zack's 2009 doesn't rank higher, but it really shouldn't take anything away from how dominant he's been this season. I think if you look at the seasons below him (two clear Cy Young winners and another that should have won) and realize that he's clearly been more dominant this season, then it helps put things in perspective. And once you see the seasons ahead of him... A great year all around.

7. Randy Johnson, 2000. 9.66 WAR, .751 Win %, 2.87 adjusted BsR-FIP, 248.7 IP, 35 GS. Barely better than Greinke's 2009, to the point where you can say they are about equivalent. I have to admit I simply have never liked "The Big Unit" all that much, but there's no denying his greatness. Hopefully, this is the last time I'll have to write about him in this post...

6. Curt Schilling, 2002. 9.75 WAR, .716 Win %, 2.75 adjusted BsR-FIP, 259.3 IP, 35 GS. Hey, it's a guy I like even less than Johnson! Great pitcher, though. I wish he'd run for Senate so we could all pile on him. He actually got screwed out of the Cy Young this season, by

5. Randy Johnson, 2004. 10.11 WAR, .753 Win %, 2.61 adjusted BsR-FIP, 245.7 IP, 35 GS. Well, at least we're done with him n--

4. Randy Johnson, 1999. 10.18 WAR, .734 Win %, 2.96 adjusted BsR-FIP, 271.7 IP, 35 GS. Yikes, okay I --

3. Randy Johnson, 2001. 10.39 WAR, .757 Win %, 2.62 adjusted BsR-FIP, 249.7 IP, 34 GS. What is there to say? Like him or not, Johnson has been of of the best pitchers many of us have seen. His (first) run in Arizona was utterly frightening. It's one thing to win four Cy Young in a row -- it's even more impressive that he deserved three of them (and the one he didn't should have gone to a teammate!).

2. Pedro Martinez, 2000. 10.80 WAR, .837 Win %, 2.41 adjusted BsR-FIP, 217 IP, 29 GS. Can you believe this isn't his best season?

1. Pedro Martinez, 1999. 11.78 WAR, .866 Win %, 2.06 adjusted BsR-FIP, 213.3 IP, 29 GS. There it is. It's really hard to put this in perspective. I "believe in" WAR -- playing time matters. But that only points up just how dominant Pedro was in 1999 and 2000. These are the two seasons with both the least innings pitched, and the least games started (the only two seasons on the list with less than 30 starts). And they were still the most valuable. Terrifying and awe-inspiring.

Something that surprised me: all of these guys but Schilling played in 2009.

There you have it. Greinke fans might be disappointed after he started out the season looking like he might end up with more than 10 WAR. But when you see the company he's in, it's difficult to complain. Now, if he doesn't win the Cy Young... then we'll get the torches and pitchforks ready.

Here is a table with the rankings for easy reference:

	Name	Lg	Team	GS	Year	IP	AdjBsRA	Win%	RAR	WAR
1	Pedro Martinez	AL	BOS	29	1999	213.3	2.06	0.866	105.8	11.78
2	Pedro Martinez	AL	BOS	29	2000	217	2.41	0.827	99.2	10.8
3	Randy Johnson	NL	ARI	34	2001	249.7	2.62	0.757	91.6	10.39
4	Randy Johnson	NL	ARI	35	1999	271.7	2.96	0.734	93.4	10.18
5	Randy Johnson	NL	ARI	35	2004	245.7	2.61	0.753	89.2	10.11
6	Curt Schilling	NL	ARI	35	2002	259.3	2.75	0.716	84.5	9.75
7	Randy Johnson	NL	ARI	35	2000	248.7	2.87	0.751	89.9	9.66
8	Zack Greinke	AL	KCA	33	2009	229.3	2.73	0.742	85.7	9.52
9	Roy Halladay	AL	TOR	36	2003	266	3.29	0.685	83.8	8.94
10	Johan Santana	AL	MIN	34	2004	228	2.98	0.734	82.9	8.82
11	Roy Halladay	AL	TOR	33	2008	246	3.08	0.693	79.4	8.76