SB Nation - Scott Elarton

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Starting Pitchers)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:15:09 -0000

Where does Aaron Cook rank among Colorado's starting pitchers?

Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at starting pitcher (through the 2008 season).

Obviously this is not a comprehensive list of all starting pitchers, but all the pitchers who have made a large contribution to the Rockies as starters were weighed, measured, and (often) found wanting. All in all, 54 players were ranked.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how pitching WAR is calculated. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

As I explained last week, starting pitchers are MUCH more valuable than relief pitchers when one is measuring WAR, by and large, due to the fact that WAR is a counting stat. Starting pitchers throw more innings and therefore have a greater influence on the game than do relievers, which stands to reason. This is also the reason why a pitcher like Franklin Morales, who could develop into a dominant closer, would be better off just remaining a starter.

Remember, relief pitchers are often failed starting pitchers who are given an easier task that their skillset will allow them to handle. Nearly every starting pitcher in baseball could be a useful relief pitcher. Very few relief pitchers could be useful starting pitchers. Replacement-level starters can be useful relievers; Juan Rincon is neither.

In any case, what both Smith and the fine folks at Fangraphs have shown is that star starting pitchers are just as valuable if not more so than star position players (and their contracts often bear this point out). Even though a dominant starting pitcher will only play once every five games, they have such a huge influence on whether their team wins the game that it mitigates the difference in playing time between the position player and, say, Troy Tulowitzki.

For instance, this season Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado's top pitcher) has been worth 5.5 WAR while Tulowitzki (the top position player) has accumulated 4.7 WAR. On a macro scale, the Rockies' pitching staff has actually contributed more WAR to the team (23.3, 2nd in MLB) than have the position players (16.5, 17th in MLB).

But I digress.

Like the denizens of the bullpen, a club's starting rotation is often in a constant state of flux due to injuries and inconsistent performance. The fact that the Rockies have only had five pitchers start more than two games this year is quite frankly amazing--the MLB average for this is closer to eight starters. I would say, though, that starting pitching performance is by and large more predictive overall than relief pitching performance due to the larger sample sizes involved in any one year's stats. A reliever can be unduly harmed or helped by luck when used less often--a trend that can see an unpleasant (or pleasant) change the subsequent year.

In order to qualify for consideration for this list the pitchers had to be one of the top five or six starters in innings pitched in a given year or throw over 50 innings for the team in a mostly starting role. It's a relatively deep group, with 14 starting pitchers having delivered at least one league average season (2 WAR) as a starter for the Rockies.

Starting Pitchers

Note: some of these pitchers were both starters and relievers for the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker. I'm ranking eight players to reflect the fact that the modern starting rotation generally uses eight pitchers in any given year.

Keep in mind when reading this list that WAR is a counting stat and therefore longevity counts for quite a bit, especially in this category. Also, Smith's numbers seem to be park-adjusted, therefore pre-humidor pitchers are given a nice park-factor boost to their less-than inspiring numbers (small consolation for having to pitch in an offensive haven.

1. Pedro Astacio

Career WAR: 9.9 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 9.3, 1999-2001 (1st)
Top Season: 5.3, 1999 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.33

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic as an 18 year old by the Dodgers, Pedro Astacio came over to the Rockies as a 27 year old before the waiver trade deadline in 1997 in exchange for Eric Young. Needless to say, trading EY was not originally a popular move with fans, but Astacio soon won over Colorado partisans with his sublime pitching even at Coors Field.

Astacio's third season with the Rockies, 1999, was the greatest pitching season in franchise history (though it will soon likely be surpassed by Jimenez this year) with 5.3 WAR. The 29 year-old righty threw 232 innings, managing a 17-11 record and 210 strikeouts (a club record to this day) despite a 5.04 ERA. Considering that Coors Field in 1999 had a Park Factor of 127 (this year = 107), it was pretty tough to succeed using conventional pitching stats. Astacio's 4.56 FIP and 8.15 K/9 (2.91 K/BB) hold up pretty well in such a poor pitching environment.

In any case, Astacio was traded by Colorado to Houston for homegrown pitcher Scott Elarton at the 2001 trading deadline as he approached free agency. Oddly enough, Astacio's performance never was even replacement level for the rest of his career even when pitching in better environs.

TOGB celebrated Astacio in an edition of Rockies Retro.

2a. Aaron Cook

Career WAR: 10.3 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 7.3, 2006-2008 (2nd)
Top Season: 3.4, 2008 (6th)
Average Rank: 3

You might not have realized it, but Aaron Cook has been pitching for the Rockies since 2002 (and he's signed through 2011 with a mutual option for 2012). His longevity and consistency (he's been over 1 WAR his last five seasons) are what puts the Rockies' 2nd round pick in 1997 near the top of this leaderboard and to the summit of the Rockies' career WAR leaderboard.

Cook's best year was his All-Star season last year, when in the awful beginning of the year he was the only thing keeping the season from becoming a complete disaster. His 16-9 record and 3.96 ERA in 211.1 IP got him on the All-Star team and his 3.76 FIP garnered him 3.4 WAR. His 4.37 career ERA is tops in Rockies history.

Going forward, Cook is a solid middle rotation starter that is locked into the Rockies for a couple of more years. He is already the longest-tenured Rockies starter, and could be one of the few players in today's game to pitch a long career with one club.

2b. Jason Jennings

Career WAR: 9.1 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 6.6, 2004-2006 (3rd)
Top Season: 4.2, 2006 (3rd)
Average Rank: 3

Talk about selling an asset high. Jason Jennings, the jewel of the Rockies' player development system, Rookie of the Year in 2002, coming off of his best season, was traded to the Houston Astros after the 2006 season (and before his third year of arbitration) for Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Hirsh. Dan O'Dowd was lambasted for this trade by most, yet in hindsight this move looks like an absolute steal.

Why? Because Jennings fell off a cliff once leaving the Rockies, sustaining arm injuries and pitching poorly enough that he's now the Rangers' mop-up man. Despite the hard times that have befallen JJ, let us remember his glory.

The 16th overall pick of the 1999 draft out of Baylor, JJ rocketed through the Rockies' system and made his big league debut in 2001, going 4-1 and having a rather memorable debut, pitching a five pitch shutout and hitting a home run. Jennings only got better in 2002, going 16-8 and winning the ROY. However, it was JJ's 2006 that cemented his status as a front line pitcher (or so thought poor Ed Wade).

In 2006 Jennings compiled a 9-13 record but had a 3.78 ERA (4.09 FIP) with 206 Ks (1.67 K/BB) in 212 IP, good enough for 4.2 WAR. And then O'Dowd sold high. What a move that was. His WAR since 2006: -1.1, -0.8. While I appreciate what JJ did for the Rockies, I'm glad O'Dowd let go when he did.

4. Kevin Ritz

Career WAR: 6.6 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 6.5, 1995-1997 (4th)
Top Season: 3.9, 1995 (5th)
Average Rank: 5

Kevin Ritz, a 4th round pick of Detroit in 1985, was picked as the 46th pick of the 1992 expansion draft by the Rockies. Ritz was a rotation regular by 1994 and had a nice two season stretch in 1995 and 1996. Ritz went 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 120 Ks (1.85 K/BB) in 173.1 IP for the Wild Card-winning Rockies in 1995 (3.9 WAR). He followed it up with a 2 WAR 1996, going 17-11.

Ritz's career ended when he was released by the Rockies during the 1998 season after he was unable to overcome arm injuries.

TOGB wrote a nice profile on Ritz in Rockies Retro.

5. Armando Reynoso

Career WAR: 7.6 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.0, 1993-1995 (6th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1993 (8th)
Average Rank: 6

Armando Reynoso, originally purchased by the Braves from his Mexican professional team, was selected by the Rockies with the 58th pick in the expansion draft. Reynoso quickly became Colorado's best pitcher, posting a 3.1 WAR in the team's inaugural season. However, his career was quickly detoured by chronic arm injuries, otherwise he'd be higher on this list. The righty, who possessed an awesome pick-off move, did manage to put up 1.1 and 2.6 WAR seasons in 1995 (half year) and 1996.

The Rockies traded the plucky finesse pitcher to the Mets after the 1996 season for Jerry DiPoto as he became more expensive given his injury risk. Reynoso won a World Series ring with the Diamondbacks despite performing poorly in 2001, his last real MLB season.

TOGB wrote a profile on Reynoso in Rockies Retro.

6. Marvin Freeman

Career WAR: 4.6 (8th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.6, 1994-1996 (T-8th)
Top Season: 4.0, 1994 (4th)
Average Rank: 6.67

Ladies and Gentleman, the single season ERA record holder for the Colorado Rockies! A 31 year-old Marvin Freeman was picked up off the scrap heap by the Rockies after the 1993 season, and though he only had one good season with the team, what a blaze of glory it was!

The imposing (6'7") righty was, quite frankly, amazing in 1994 for the Rockies. In only 112 innings (18 starts), Freeman went 10-2 with 67 Ks (2.91 K/BB) and a 2.80 ERA (3.84 FIP), worth 4.0 WAR!

Of course, in 1995 and 1996 everyone was reminded that Freeman wasn't actually this good (0.9 and -0.3 WAR) and he went away quietly--he was released at the waiver deadline in 1996.

7. John Thomson

Career WAR: 7.2 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.8, 1997-1999 (7th)
Top Season: 2.7, 1997 (10th)
Average Rank: 7.33

Drafted by the Rockies in the 7th round in 1993, Thomson exceeded the production of 1992 2nd round draft pick Mark Thompson, who I often confuse him for. Thomson reached the big leagues in 1997 as a 23 year old and had immediate success, posting 2.7 WAR (7-9, 4.71 ERA) and following that up with another 2.7 WAR (8-11, 4.81) season in 1998.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit Thomson hard after 1998, and he managed only half seasons in 1999 and 2001 with no season at all in 2000. Finally healthy in 2002, Thomson was traded at the July deadline with Mark Little to the Mets for a package that included Jay Payton. After the trade Thomson had a few injury-free years and performed well for the Rangers and the Braves, then was ultimately undone by more injuries.

8. Jeff Francis

Career WAR: 6.2 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.7, 2006-2008 (5th)
Top Season: 2.5, 2006 (13th)
Average Rank: 8.33

The 9th overall pick in the 2002 draft out of Canada, Jeff Francis moved rapidly through the Rockies' system and was with the big club by 2004 as a 23 year old. Francis finished sixth in the ROY voting in 2005, his first full season, then enjoyed two very nice years in 2006 and 2007.

The soft-tossing lefty equaled Ritz's and Astacio's franchise wins mark with his 17-9 record in 2007 (he had 2.2 WAR) and finished 9th in the Cy Young Award voting. However, he suffered a torn labrum after a tough 2008 and has been rehabbing the injury since then.

The Physicist has one year left on his contract ($5.75 million) with a $7 million club option for 2010. It will be interesting to see if Francis can ever return to his early form and make it worthwhile for the Rockies to exercise that option. I've taken a pretty pessimistic view on this injury from the start, so my money is that Francis will never contribute significantly to the team again. I would love to be proved wrong though.

Other great single seasons include Joe Kennedy's 2004 (4.7 WAR) and Roger Bailey's 1997 (3.2).

Career Underachievers: Mike Hampton (-1, though he was worth 2 WAR batting), Denny Neagle (1.1), Scott Elarton (-2.9), and Livan Hernandez (-1.2).

Others of note: Jimenez (3.4 and on his way to a place high on this list very soon), Darryl Kile (4.1), Jamey Wright (4.6), Shawn Chacon (2.2, but 3.9 as a starter), Josh Fogg (-0.6) Greg Reynolds (-1.5).

Next week I'll reveal the unholy amalgamation that is the Colorado Rockies All-WAR team.

Fire Everyone! - Carl Willis

Jay — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:40:12 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

"Basically, Justersonster, you only get to be good for one year as long as I'm your coach. So which year is it going to be?"

Browse more photos »

This is the third installment in a 12-part series.

The case is simple: Our pitching stinks, fire the pitching coach.

While we've seen consistently good-to-great lineups for the past four years or so, our rotation has gone from a wonderfully deep collection of quality pitchers to an utter wasteland. As for our bullpens, the words "historically bad" have been used — without hyperbole — to describe four of the last six.

In fairness to Willis, a recap is in order of some truly great pitching Indians fans have seen under his watch:

CC Sabathia (2003), Jake Westbrook (2004) and Cliff Lee (2005) all emerged as young quality starters in Willis' first three seasons with the club.
Veterans Brian Anderson (2003) and Scott Elarton (2004) had solid bounce-back seasons.
Injury-plagued Kevin Millwood (2005) won the AL ERA title in his only season with Willis, and Carl Pavano (2009) returned from a four-year hiatus to become an above-average starter.
Rafael Betancourt emerged as one of the few consistently good middle relievers in the game.
The 2005 staff led the league in ERA and allowed just 3.96 runs per game. The club essentially made it through the season using only five starters, and it was essentially just as steady and stable in 2006.
The 2005 bullpen in particular led the league in ERA and WHIP by significant margins and might have been the best in club history.
Sabathia emerged as a true ace late in the 2005 season, producing Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Fausto Carmona (2007) produced a Cy Young-caliber season while barely more than a rookie.
Cliff Lee (2008) produced a dominant, historic season, including a unanimous Cy Young award, and one of the most remarkable comeback stories the game has ever seen.

It is an impressive list of accomplishments — which just makes it all the more amazing that there's a good case for firing the guy. On a macro level, the bullpen has been the runaway leading culprit in the trademark early-season collapses of the Wedge era. If it weren't for those four horrendous bullpens, in fact, there likely would never have been any talk whatsoever about Wedge's teams starting slow.

Despite many seemingly fine internal candidates, he has never been able to cultivate a closer. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera withered away to nothing, and Jensen Lewis seems to be following not far behind them. A long list of pitchers have arrived in Cleveland ready to compete and even dominate — Carmona, Davis, Cabrera, Sowers, Perez, Lewis — and then, at some point before they hit the two-year mark, they just lose it. Too many of the Indians' best young pitchers seem to forget how to pitch completely, or they lose the ability to do what made them successful. And when they forget, Willis seems utterly unable to remind them.

Time after time, we see pitchers shipped down to the minors to reconstruct their games. This is in part a practical necessity, but at some point the question must be asked: Isn't the pitching coach supposed to help the pitchers, you know, pitch better?

You may not be surprised to learn that, at least from an outside perspective, Willis' minor league résumé is almost vanishingly thin. Looking at the rosters for 1997 Watertown, 1998 Burlington and 1999 Columbus (Ga.), there is an amazing lack of major league talent. Sabathia made eight starts for those clubs as he breezed through the minors, and Tim Drew and Ryan Drese each made a few starts for them. But as for the pitchers who spent significant time with Willis in the low minors, however, not a single one ever had a significant big-league career. The 2000 Aeros allow Willis to claim some credit for Danys Baez's development, and he did coach Zach Day for eight starts. Think about that: eight starts with Zach Day is Willis' second most impressive work product for those four seasons in the minors.

Willis moved up to Buffalo with Wedge for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and he moved up to Cleveland with Wedge in 2003. Naturally, Willis couldn't help but work with future major leaguers once he was working in Triple-A, but even so, the list is pretty thin. He had 12 starts with then-prospect Westbrook and another eight with Lee. Other than that, Willis' minor league highlights are led by names like Tim Drew, Mike Bacsik and Sean DePaula.

In fairness, it was this exact, astonishing dearth of talent that led the Indians to blow up the team in 2002, and in no way am I suggesting that it's Willis' fault that there was so little talent there to work with. Still, after six years in the minors, you would hope that there would be more tangible things to point to — some pitcher, anyone, who developed into a good major leaguer, largely under Willis' tutelage — but that pitcher doesn't seem to exist. It seems that Willis owes his presence in the majors largely if not entirely to the judgment of Eric Wedge, and one shudders to consider what qualities Willis had that Wedge felt made him the best guy to be the Indians pitching coach. Is Carl Willis a grinder? Was Wedge hoping that Willis would "run into one?" Is he, in fact, the Ryan Garko of pitching coaches?

Even Willis' accomplishments fade under closer inspection. Sabathia is a unique and protean talent who arrived as a reasonably effective starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. You would expect an exceptional young talent like him to progress somewhat in his first few years, to have occasional setbacks, and eventually to emerge as one of the game's top pitchers. Willis deserves credit for helping Sabathia fulfill his potential, but it did take six years for it to happen, and when they started their fourth season together in 2006, it still hadn't happened. Durability aside, it would be a stretch to say that Sabathia exceeded expectations once Willis arrived.

Lee presents a similar mixed bag, as a prospect whose ceiling was always seen as a number-one starter. Again, the natural tendency is to credit Willis for some portion of Lee's miraculous rise from the gutter in 2008. The problem comes when you ask, who was Lee's pitching coach when his career careened off into that gutter in the first place? Who was his coach when his very fine 2005 season turned into a thoroughly mediocre 2006, followed by 2007, when Lee fell entirely off the depth chart? Did the Indians, on balance, get as much out of Lee as was expected, from 2005 through 2008? Even if the answer is "yes," Willis' work with Lee doesn't seem to be an overwhelming positive on the balance sheet.

And then there's the Boys of 2007: Carmona, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Carmona's odd odyssey in 2006 is well documented, but he seemed to arrive in 2007 as an Instant Ace. I'd like to give Willis some credit for this, but when a veteran slugger says Carmona's power sinker is like a bad hangover, it's not clear how much credit can be given to coaching. Lewis and Perez each arrived mid-season in 2007, propelled by months of dominance in the high minors, and they kept right on going, dominating AL hitters all the way down the stretch. Lewis has struggled to pitch consistently in 2008 and 2009. Perez was a solid reliever in 2008 and has been arguably the worst reliever in the major leagues this season. Both relievers collapsed despite not having any notable injury problems. As for Carmona, he may well be the single most brutally disappointing player Indians fans have followed this decade.

Among the three pitchers, these three facts seem consistent:

They arrived and performed at the very high level portended by their track records.
Willis played no significant role in their development as prospects.
They have all totally collapsed since their first full seasons in the majors.

Without breakout performances from Perez and Lewis in 2007, we'd be talking about four historically awful bullpens in four consecutive seasons, rather than in just three seasons out of the last four. Following the 2006 debacle, the Indians spent relatively heavily on bullpen options, bringing in Hernandez, Fultz, and Borowski for 2007. Masa Kobayashi was brought in to fortify what was viewed as promising core in 2008, which turned into another debacle. Topping prior efforts, the Indians acquired Kerry Wood and Joe Smith for 2009 — once again hoping to bolster a solid core of Betancourt, Perez and Lewis — and the Triple-A club was stocked with solid minor league free agents and a few dominating prospects, led by Tony Sipp. Yet once again, the bullpen crumbled completely and tanked the season early.

Reliever performances are maddeningly hard to project — functionally impossible in fact — but it should be clear at this point that small samples alone cannot explain the wild swings in performance for pitchers like Lewis and Perez. No scout would claim they are the same pitchers they were in 2007, or that Carmona is. At one point, they knew how to pitch successfully, and now, they don't. One wonders if within the next few years, their careers will become just as insubstantial as those who came before them, like Davis and Cabrera.

If the bullpen is any significant part of Willis' responsibilities, then his performance must be considered a failure at this point. The best we can say for the man's tenure with the Indians is that for the most elite pitching talent, in their prime, he has helped them to achieve their potential, and he has helped a few rehabbed retreads put together some nice make-good seasons. Both of these types of contributions have been very useful to the club. For pitchers who were not already established, however, and not elite talents coming out of the minors, the overall pitching productivity under Willis has been simply abysmal.

One more factor worth considering is the availability of Leo Mazzone, the well-known pitching coach for the 1990s Atlanta Braves. In addition to coaching three pitchers to six Cy Young awards, Mazzone is also the subject of a comparative statistical study that showed that pitchers coached by him tended to lower their ERA by an average of half a run. Neither of these facts are conclusive as to Mazzone's true ability, but then, nothing ever is when it comes to coaches. We can't know for sure how much good or harm Willis has done, or how much of the Braves' immense pitching success was owed to Mazzone. Clubs have to make decisions in the absence of real certainty, with coaches just as much as players.

It may seem callous (and even "un-Shapiro") to kick Willis to the curb just because someone better is available. Maybe it is callous. It's also the kind of thing that organizations do when they're serious about competing. We could badly use a coach with a knack for turning fringy pitchers into decent major league starters and relievers — and by "we" I mean "Jeremy Sowers and David Huff." Mazzone has shown that knack, and Willis hasn't. Under the current leadership, if the Indians have the worst bullpen in the majors next season, not one person will be able to claim surprise. Maybe Willis has done nothing to cause those disasters, but he certainly hasn't prevented them. Whatever his accomplishments here, it's time to fire the pitching coach.

Looking Back at the 1st Round of the 1994 Draft

erik — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 23:30:10 -0000

Call me a curmudgeon, but I really hate the NFL Draft. Captain Hair-Do aside, it is a slog of a television event that really could be done in a matter of hours rather than days. Because football has become America's most popular sport these days, Bud Selig thinks he has to mimic the NFL by broadcasting the draft in prime time, starting at 6pm eastern on June 9. Rather than getting through several rounds on day one of the draft, only three rounds will be drafted, and then the draft will resume the next day at noon. All told, it is going to take three days to get through 50 rounds.

Thankfully, the draft is going to be broadcast on the MLB Network rather than ESPN, so we're spared of Steve Phillips and Bermanisms. While I'm happy that televised drafts mean more exposure, I miss the old days when the first round was blitzed through within a half-hour, with simply names being called monotonously through a speaker phone at a feverish pace.

Now that I got my Andy Rooney moment out of the way, I thought it might be fun to do a little retrospect of the first rounds of various drafts. This isn't deep draft research, there is plenty of that out there already to read up on.

We'll start with 1994, which is bustier than a cabaret show.

Charted below are all of the first rounders and their total WAR compiled for each player before they become eligible for free agency. A players' names that are italicized are those that did not play a single game in the majors.

	Pick	Team	POS	HS/College	WAR
Paul Wilson	1	NYM	P	COL	0.5
Ben Grieve	2	OAK	OF	HS	8.4
Dustin Hermanson	3	SD	P	COL	8.2
Antone Williamson	4	MIL	3B	COL	-0.7
Josh Booty	5	FLA	SS	HS	0
McCay Christiansen	6	CAL	OF	HS	-0.3
Doug Million	7	COL	P	HS	0
Todd Walker	8	MIN	2B	COL	7.4
C.J. Nitkowski	9	CIN	P	COL	-2.1
Jaret Wright	10	CLE	P	HS	0.3
Mark Farris	11	PIT	SS	HS	0
Nomar Garciaparra	12	BOS	SS	COL	41.5
Paul Konerko	13	LA	C	HS	6.4
Jason Varitek	14	SEA	C	COL	10.7
Jayson Peterson	15	CHC	P	HS	0
Matt Smith	16	KC	P	HS	0
Ramon Castro	17	HOU	C	HS	0.2
Cade Gaspar	18	DET	P	COL	0
Bret Wagner	19	STL	P	COL	0
Terrence Long	20	NYM	OF	HS	6.5
Hiram Bocachica	21	MTL	SS	HS	-1.1
Dante Powell	22	SF	OF	COL	-0.2
Carlton Loewer	23	PHI	P	COL	-1.8
Brian Buchanan	24	NYY	OF	COL	-0.4
Scott Elarton	25	HOU	P	HS	3.8
Mark Johnson	26	CHW	C	HS	1
Jacob Schumate	27	ATL	P	HS	0
Kevin Witt	28	TOR	SS	HS	-0.4
Jay Payton	29	NYM	OF	COL	7.3
Russ Johnson	30	HOU	SS	COL	2.5
Mike Thurman	31	MTL	P	COL	1.3
Jacob Cruz	32	SF	OF	COL	0.7
Chris Clemons	33	CHW	P	COL	-0.3
Travis Miller	34	MIN	P	COL	0

Nomar and his "No-mah!" days aside, this is a pretty "ouch" group. Varitek and Konerko later became all-stars, but for other teams than they were originally drafted. Paul Wilson and Ben Grieve were supposed to become superstars, instead Paul Wilson fell prey to his poor mechanics and later became a Kyle Farnsworth tackling dummy. Ben Grieve allegedly had no heart. Them washing out is like the equivalent of Matt Wieters and David Price both going bust. Bad times.

Josh Booty probably has the most interesting story out of this group, and it's worth telling. He was considered to be Peyton Manning's equal coming out of high school, but elected to take the big signing bonus and play baseball instead. After hitting .198/.256/.356 in the minors, including a record-setting 195 strikeout performance in 475 at-bats while in the Midwest League, Booty went back to football and quarterbacked at LSU. (Amazingly, Booty was on the post-season roster when the Marlins won the World Series). For the Bayou Bengals, Peyton Manning he was not, but he wasn't totally awful --- over two seasons he completed 49.3% of his passes for 3,951 yards and 24 TDs. Booty has been a third-string QB in the NFL for the Browns and Raiders, but never has taken a snap in the NFL.

Booty married one of "Barker's Beauties" from the Price is Right, a model who on the show dinged a prize car on Stage Door 3. Then there was also a DUI and taser incident involving Booty a year ago. His brother, John David, quarterbacked at USC and is now a backup for the Vikings. (Thank you, Wikipedia)

Sorting them out into groups ---

Group	#	Total WAR	Avg. Per Player	Avg. WAR per yr.
High School P	6	4.1	0.68	0.114
College P	9	5.8	0.64	0.107
College Hitters	9	68.8	7.64	1.27
High School Hitters	10	20.7	2.07	0.345
Non-Nomar Col. H	8	20.6	3.43	0.572

Not all drafts classes are equal, and while first-rounders don't have as high rates of attrition as players drafted from other rounds, the attrition rates are still high. For this draft at least, there seems to be a lot more sad stories than usual. At least it boasts of one (former) super-star.

WAR data from the ever-resourceful BaseballProjection.com

Division-By-Division 2009 Projected Starting Pitching Rankings By WAR: AL Central

devil_fingers — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 14:00:10 -0000

This is the fourth in a series of six posts going through the MLB division-by-division to see which team has the best projected 2009 starting pitching by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to an average of the "Big Three" projection systems.. This post covers the rotations of a division that appears to be as "up for grabs " as any other in the majors: the AL Central. I actually had to do a bit of revising of my original big spreadsheet because the BP depth charts have undergone some revision since I originally started, which did effect some things. Surprises await...

Brandon "Ducky" Duckworth wants you to read on after the jump.

How Did I Come Up With These Numbers?

Some details on the methods used (if you don't care, you can jump straight to the "Team-By-Team")

FIP is used as the primary pitching stat.
The projected 2009 for each pitcher is generated by averagfing the projections of the three best publicly available projection systems: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA. The projected FIP for CHONE and ZiPS are from the player pages at FanGraphs. I generated the PECOTA FIP myself from the big spreadsheet.
Playing time/depth chart projections are based on Baseball Prospectus's depth charts (not the PECOTA weighted mean) in order to account for spot starters as well. These change every week; the playing times used are those that were up when I was writing the present post.
No team only starts 5 players all year long. However, I've also included a "top 5" figure for each team, based on the top 5 projected starter WARs for each team (not the top five projected IPs).
Value is based on a Win% generated using PythagenPat in relation to a average FIP-ERA of 4.40 and an RA of 4.76.
Run values are generated by are scaling FIP to RA rather than ERA for better accuracy and to properly value pitchers with respect to hitters.
An appropriate replacement level win percentage for starting pitchers is used, adjusted for relative league difficulty: .390 is replacement level for starters in the NL, and .370 for the AL.
Adjustments for ballparks use the five-year regressed park factors used at FanGraphs.
Adjustments are made for each pitcher's influence on his run environment through a dynamic run-to-win conversion for each individual pitcher.
New feature starting with the AL Central post: aggregate team starter win %. Yay! Note: that this is not directly convertible to team WAR, as it is a simple weighted average based on individual win% and IP. There will be discrepancies between team win% and team WAR, which is based on individual win % because this rough calculation occurs before individual impcat on run environment is taken into account for run-to-win conversion. WAR is the focus here. This feature is just for fun and a rough little guide to quality in relation to average. WAR is still the main focus of this series.
Neither the rates nor playing time projections are "mine." I have simply the projections, averaged them, and combined them with BP's playing time predictions. You can find the complete projected lines for each pitcher at the home sites for the systems (and FanGraphs, for CHONE and ZiPS). In other words, don't blame me if you lose money betting with this stuff...

Team-By-Team

Cleveland Indians
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Cliff Lee	200	3.84	.559	37.9	3.8
Fausto Carmona	150	4.26	.511	21.1	2.1
Jeremy Sowers	125	4.75	.458	11.1	1.1
Anthony Reyes	110	4.83	.451	8.9	0.9
Aaron Laffey	100	4.43	.492	12.2	1.2
Carl Pavano	65	4.95	.439	4.5	0.4
David Huff	60	4.43	.492	7.3	0.7
Jake Westbrook	80	4.26	.510	11.2	1.1
Scott Lewis	50	4.41	.494	6.2	0.6
Total			.498		11.9
Top 5					9.3

Comment: Both CHONE and Baseball Prospectus currently have the Indians as the likely winners of the 2009 AL Central. This isn't that surprising, although (like many forecasts) it depends on a number of assumptions about the how successful the returns of Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, etc. will be. In any case, it's pretty obvious here that if Cliff Lee completely reverts to his pre-2008 form or is out for an extended period of time, the divisional title aspirations for the Indians may be up in smoke, although, again, that's true for a lot of teams and their star players. Cleveland is attempting up for their lack of top-end quality with depth, as can be seen from the gap between the total projected WAR and the TOP 5. The .498 projected win percentage sees them as about average. As will be a theme throughout this post, there are a lot of variables here.... Insert Carl Pavano joke here.

Detroit Tigers
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Justin Verlander	195	4.10	.534	31.9	3.2
Jeremy Bonderman	150	4.15	.528	22.1	2.2
Armando Galaragga	165	4.85	.454	13.9	1.3
Edwin Jackson	160	4.78	.461	14.5	1.4
Zach Miner	80	4.29	.512	11.3	1.1
Nate Robertson	110	4.70	.469	10.9	1.1
Dontrelle Willis	70	5.18	.423	3.7	0.3
Rick Porcello	55	5.76	.374	0.2	0.0
Total			.481		10.7
Top 5					9.3

Comment: Blah blah blah joke about 1,000 run offense in 2008. The pitching (and defense) bombed last year. Adam Everett and Gerald Laird should help out on defense, but there are a lot of fingers crossed in Detroit, as those signings in addition to the Matt Joyce-for-Edwin Jackson trade portend a "win-now" season for an aging team; the pitchers can't blow it. Verlander is the only pitcher here who projects both as clearly above average in his rate stats and for a decent amount of innings. Bonderman looks above average when he's projected to pitch, but at this point, "disappointment" is probably the right word. Galaragga was a nice pickup, but he has to come back to earth eventually. Rick Porcello: replacement level picher. I miss Dontrelle Willis being good. Sorry for all of the negative comments -- in actuality, this group is better than some people think, and notice that their "Top 5" group is as good as Cleveland's.

Minnesota Twins
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Scott Baker	170	4.06	.529	27.0	2.7
Francisco Liriano	160	3.86	.553	29.3	3.0
Nick Blackburn	160	4.56	.473	16.5	1.6
Glen Perkins	150	5.24	.408	5.7	0.5
Kevin Slowey	170	3.96	.541	29.1	2.9
Philip Humber	110	5.49	.386	1.8	0.2
Kevin Mulvey	50	4.99	.431	3.1	0.3
Total			.486		11.2
Top 5					10.7

Comment: I suppose that I'm not the only one that thought these guys would project a little better. Again, this is a situation where playing time is very important. If Liriano and Baker can avoid injuries, this is probably the best rotation in the division. Slowey is also a stud-in-the-making from the Twins' Brad Radke factory.. Imagine if they could get Tampa Bay to trade Matt Garza for Delmon Young. Nah, any GM stupid enough to do that should be fired forthwith, right? In terms of sheer win%, Baker, Liriano, and Slowey look like the best 1-2-3 punch in the division. Seems like the "Twins way" should probably involve overpaying for some crappy vet to take innings away from one or more of the young guys in the grand tradition of the Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez signings. To be fair, it does like young Philip Humber (part of the Johan Santana trade "bonanza") will be contributing quite a bit of near-replacement level sweetness this season.

Chicago White Sox
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Mark Buerhle	200	4.38	.521	30.2	3.0
John Danks	175	4.21	.540	29.8	3.0
Gavin Floyd	180	5.08	.451	14.5	1.4
Clayton Richard	110	4.93	.464	10.4	1.0
Jose Contreras	130	4.54	.504	17.4	1.7
Bartolo Colon	80	4.79	.478	8.6	0.8
Jack Egbert	40	4.69	.489	4.7	0.5
Lance Broadway	40	5.89	.382	0.5	0.0
Aaron Poreda	40	5.08	.451	3.2	0.3
Total			.490		11.8
Top 5					9.3

Comment: If you ask me, Kenny Williams is one of the most entertaining GMs in baseball. No, I don't think he's great. I don't think he's terrible. I don't know what to think. Sometimes he makes moves that I think are stupid, and they work out well. Or he makes moves that make me think he's "getting it," and they bomb. It's fun to watch from a distance, although it must be brutally exhausting for White Sox fans. If you read my NL East post in this series, you'll see that Javier Vazquez is projected at about 2 wins better than anyone else on the White Sox currently. The ChiSox got young guys in return and are clearly trimming salary (Vazquez and Swisher wouldn't have been my choices, but see my comments about my judgments re: Williams' past moves above), so we'll have to wait and see how it works out in big picture, but, again, with Vazquez, this would easily be the best rotation in the division... Gavin Floyd, meet reality. Jose Contreras may be old, but White Sox fans would certainly rather see him out there than Bartolo Colon. John Danks turns 24 in April, and looks like a stud-in-the-making.

Kansas City Royals
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Gil Meche	195	4.03	.542	33.6	3.4
Zack Greinke	190	3.92	.555	35.2	3.6
Brian Bannister	160	4.82	.457	13.9	1.3
Kyle Davies	140	4.93	.446	10.6	1.0
Luke Hochevar	140	4.81	.457	12.2	1.2
Horacio Ramirez	60	4.39	.501	7.9	0.8
Brandon Duckworth	30	4.84	.454	2.5	0.2
Sidney Ponson	60	5.00	.440	4.2	0.4
Total			.493		11.9
Top 5					10.5

Comment: I've had some harsh words for Royals GM Dayton Moore this offseason, and I'm not taking them back now. But I have to hand it to the man: he's put together a respectable rotation. True, like many of the Royals' best players, young ace Zack Greinke is a holdover from the previous administration (as are Alex Gordon, David DeJesus, Mike Aviles, and Billy Butler) , but Moore did manage to extend him. And although the Gil Meche contract now looks like a giant outlier among Moore's ...questionable... record with free agents, it's been a dandy. Greinke and Meche project as the best 1-2 punch in the division by both WAR and individual win%. Going just by WAR, they project as the 2nd and 3rd best pitchers in the division (behind Cliff Lee). Neither Bannister nor Davies looks like a world beater, but they can at least hold down the back of the rotation decently, and were acquired by trading older and expensive (Octavio Dotel for Davies) or young and overrated "live arms" (Ambriox Burgos for Bannister) for cheap young production. Um, no, I personally don't think Ho-Ram is a .501 starting pitcher. The projection systems probably don't differentiate between his time as a starter and as a reliever. But hey, I'm just following the numbers here. There's no homerism. There are "issues" like that all over this series, and if I start making half-baked subjective adjustments of my own in one place, I'll have to do it everywhere, and we end up with a bunch of junk. Before Carlos Rosa got sent back to Omaha to be a reliever, the Royals actually projected slightly better, but Sir Sidney isn't going to kill them too badly with only 60 innings (gulp), although the acquisition may trigger a crisis of epic proportions... P. S. Ducky rules.

Let's see the final results:

AL Central Projected SP WAR
Rank	Team	Total SP WAR	Top 5 WAR	Win%
1	Royals	11.9	10.5	.493
1	Indians	11.9	9.3	.498
3	White Sox	11.8	9.4	.490
4	Twins	11.2	10.7	.486
5	Tigers	10.7	9.3	.481
Total		57.5	49.2

Final Thoughts: That is very close, with all five teams are within 1.2 WAR. KC and Cleveland are tied on top at 11.9, with Chicago right behind at 11.8. No group of starters (including spot starters) projects as average (.500 or greater win%), although all are pretty close. While the top teams are worse than any other top divisional teams (at least so far), the bottom team is better than any other bottom team... Until the recent depth chart changes on both teams, Cleveland was further down the list, and KC was the clear #1. I was excited about that, but I had to give in to what the projections now say... On one hand, I could give it to Cleveland on the basis of the superior win%, but on the other, KC has the better "Top 5." So I have them tied, with KC listed first (in your face, Kyle!). Besides, as I noted above, the calculations for aggregate win% are only a "rough guide," anyway. And that's the mess with this whole division -- things are so close. Given the nature of projections in general, the potential for devastating pitcher injury, young player unpredictability, etc. it's not that far fetched to see any of the teams having the best starting WAR at the end of the season. For fans of the Indians, the Twins (my "gut" tells me this is really the best rotation in the division, but you know what the gut's brains are made of...), and the Tigers, it's pretty clear that their rotations definitely have question marks, but are each good enough to potentially help win the division. For Royals fans, there's a good young core there, and hopefully the position players can catch up. For White Sox fans... hey, you know Kenny better than I do, you tell me what to expect, I have no clue. I guess that's why Kenny Williams is the GM, and I'm the blog-talkin' guy...

Next up: NL West (later this week, probably Wednesday or Thursday)