SB Nation - Joe Kennedy

WAR Lords of the Diamond: Greatest. Rockies. Ever.

Jabberwocky — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:30:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Todd Helton features prominently in any conversation about the greatest Rockies ever.

Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP I SP

Now that I've discussed the greatest Rockies ever by position according to WAR, I'll summarize my data and reveal my All-Time Rockies squad. In all, 224 Rockies have been weighed, measured, and (mostly) been found wanting in this quest, yet some have clearly risen above the rest.

Of course, due to the fact that the Rockies' history is only 17 years old, there isn't exactly a deep pool of players to choose from in this study. Therefore, I will be ranking all players who produced a career WAR of over 3 wins at a position for the Rockies or was a significant player for the team.

Here was my methodology:

1. I only used stats accumulated when they played for the Rockies.

2. The categories used were: career with Rockies, best three consecutive years with Rockies (establishes average production), and best single year with the Rockies (establishes peak production).

3. If the players spent less than three years with the Rockies, their career total was used in the other metrics as well. If the player was at different positions for different years, the player would be considered for the position in which he had the most starts (or greatest impact, at my discretion) for the Rockies.

4. The players were ranked in each category. Those ranks were added and averaged out--the lowest average rank was the most valuable Rockie.

5. The data used was only for seasons that were completed (e.g. not 2009).

Remember, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fantastic Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of WAR's calculation for position players and pitchers. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

After the jump I'll outline the greatest (and worst) Rockies squad as found using my methodology, as well as the best single year performances.

The All-Time Greats

Remember, this ranking takes into account best career WAR, best consecutive 3-year WAR period, and best single WAR year to accurately capture a player's greatness and to mitigate somewhat the fact that WAR is a counting stat and is heavily influenced by longevity. Slash stats are (Career WAR / 3 Year WAR / 1 Year WAR).

Starting Lineup

C: Jeff Reed (1996-1999) (4.3 / 4.6 / 1.8)
1B: Todd Helton (1997-2008) (53.9 / 21.7 / 8.8)
2B: Eric Young (1993-1997) (9.5 / 7.3 / 3.8)
3B: Garrett Atkins (2003-2008) (11.1 / 10.8 / 6.4)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2006-2008) (6.2 / 6.2 / 5.6)
LF: Matt Holliday (2004-2008) (16.9 / 15.9 / 7.3)
CF: Juan Pierre (2000-2002) (3.0 / 3.0 / 2.4)
RF: Larry Walker (1995-2004) (44.1 / 18.3 / 9.0)

Bench

Vinny Castilla (1993-1999, 2004, 2006) (15.1 / 10.1 / 4.5)
Ellis Burks (1994-1998) (10.8 / 10 / 7.6)
Andres Galarraga (1993-1997) (11.3 / 6.3 / 3.6)
Jamey Carroll (2006-2007) (5.1 / 5.1 / 4.3)
Chris Iannetta (2006-2008) (3.2 / 3.2 / 2.7)

Batting Order

1. Eric Young
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Matt Holliday
6. Garrett Atkins
7. Juan Pierre
8. Jeff Reed

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1997-2001) (9.9 / 9.3 / 5.3)
SP2: Aaron Cook (2002-2008) (10.3 / 7.3 / 3.4)
SP3: Jason Jennings (2001-2006) (9.1 / 6.6 / 4.2)
SP4: Kevin Ritz (1994-1998) (6.6 / 6.5 / 3.9)
SP5: Armando Reynoso (1993-1996) (7.6 / 5.0 / 3.1)

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Steve Reed (1993-1997, 2003-2004) (9.2 / 5.6 / 3.1)
Brian Fuentes (2002-2008) (8.8 / 5.2 / 2.7)
Curtis Leskanic (1993-1999) (5.2 / 3.2 / 3.1)
Bruce Ruffin (1993-1997) (5.7 / 4.6 / 1.9)
Jerry Dipoto (1997-2000) (4.7 / 4.4 / 2.1)
Jose Jimenez (2000-2003) (4.2 / 4.2 / 2.3)
Darren Holmes (1993-1997) ( (3.8 / 3.6 / 2.3)

Analysis

The construction of this team historically tells us that in the last few years the Rockies have played several of the best position players in team history (three of them are on this squad). After 2009 is completed Chris Iannetta will supplant Jeff Reed at starting catcher while several other players shoot up the leader boards.

From a pitching standpoint, the bullpen is heavily comprised of guys that were in the 1997 bullpen (five of them!). After this year not much will change as far as relievers go, but Ubaldo Jimenez's stellar 2009 will place him in the rotation as the second-ranked starting pitcher. It should be noted that Ellis Burks would probably supplant Juan Pierre in center field.

The team that is best by my metrics is by and large the best team by Career and 3 Year WAR totals too, but there are definitely some interesting outlier seasons by others that shake up the best single year roster.

The Greatest Single Season Performances

Collected below is an unholy amalgamation of the best individual seasons by position in Rockies history. If these players had all produced at this level in the same year, they would have produced 67.2 batting WAR (20.4 off the bench), 19.2 relief WAR, and 22.1 starting pitching WAR for a total of 88.1 WAR. This team should statistically win 136.7 games out of 162 (a replacement level team would win 48.6, or 30% of its games).

Starting Lineup

C: Chris Iannetta (2008) 2.7
1B: Todd Helton (2000) 8.8
2B: Jamey Carroll (2006) 4.3
3B: Garrett Atkins (2006) 6.4
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2007) 5.6
LF: Ellis Burks (1996) 7.6
CF: Juan Pierre (2001) 2.4
RF: Larry Walker (1997) 9.0

Bench

Matt Holliday (2007) 7.3
Vinny Castilla (1998) 4.5
Kazuo Matsui (2007) 4.1
Eric Young (1996) 2.7
Jeff Reed (1998) 1.8

Batting Order

1. Jamey Carroll
2. Ellis Burks
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Garrett Atkins
6. Troy Tulowitzki
7. Chris Iannetta
8. Juan Pierre

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1999) 5.3
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2004) 4.7
SP3: Jason Jennings (2006) 4.2
SP4: Marvin Freeman (1994) 4.0
SP5: Kevin Ritz (1995) 3.9

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Gabe White (2000) 3.3
Steve Reed (1997) 3.1
Curtis Leskanic (1995) 3.1
Brian Fuentes (2005) 2.7
Manuel Corpas (2007) 2.4
Jose Jimenez (2000) 2.3
Darren Holmes (1995) 2.3

Analysis

Obviously I'd play Holliday in left field and shift Burks to center, improving the lineup (and overall WAR) immensely, but those were the best players by WAR at their position in one season. From this year's team, Carlos Gonzalez is close to surpassing Juan Pierre, while Ubaldo Jimenez will jump atop the starting rotation, where he will perhaps be joined by Jason Marquis (depending on how his last start turns out). I'll talk more about this next week.

Rockies fans have been privileged enough to witness in the last couple of years some of the greatest seasons ever--Smith's WAR calculations are park-adjusted, so when Coors Field changed due to the humidor's implementation so did the formula for calculating WAR. As a result, early pitchers get a large boost (and hitters a large detraction) relative to today's players because of the pitcher's hell that was early Coors Field/Mile High.

And finally...

Single Season Goats

This would be the worst single-season lineup the Rockies could put on the field (worst players starting). The sad thing is that many of them did play a large role for the Rockies. The damage: -15.9 hitting WAR (-11.2 from the starting lineup), -7.5 relief WAR, and -8.5 SP WAR for a total of -31.9 wins above replacement. This team should statistically win 16.7 games out of 162.

Starting Lineup

C: Kirt Manwaring (1997) -2.1
1B: John Vander Wal (1997) -0.7
2B: Luis A. Gonzalez (2006) -1.0
3B: Vinny Castilla (1993) -0.5 [soon to be supplanted by Garrett Atkins, 2009 (-0.9)]
SS: Neifi Perez (1998) -1.2 (and yes, he played all 162 games)
LF: Dante Bichette (1999) -2.8
CF: Choo Freeman (2004) -1.2
RF: Brad Hawpe (2008) -1.7

Bench

Cory Sullivan (2006) -1.1
Steve Finley (2007) -1.1
Jason Bates (1996) -0.9
Jeff Baker (2007) -0.7
Gary Bennett (2002) -0.9

Batting Order

1. Neifi Perez
2. Choo Freeman
3. Vinny Castilla
4. Dante Bichette
5. Brad Hawpe
6. John Vander Wal
7. Kirt Manwaring
8. Luis A. Gonzalez

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Dennis Stark (2004) -1.9
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2005) -1.9
SP3: Brian Rekar (1996) -1.6
SP4: Andy Ashby (1993) -1.6
SP5: Mike Hampton (2002) -1.5

Bullpen (in order of suckitude):

Shawn Chacon (2004) -1.7
Todd Jones (2003) -1.4
Mike Dejean (1999) -1
Darren Holmes (1994) -0.9
Jose Acevedo (2005) -0.9
Jeremy Affeldt (2006) -0.8
Javier Lopez (2004) -0.8

Analysis

This team is horrible, but some of the names on the list were just having a statistical anomaly of a bad season or were getting their first look at major league hitting/pitching. In fact, several went on to have nice careers. Several of them did not, and for good reason.

Next week, I'll look at how the 2009 Rockies performed individually and as a team from a value standpoint.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Starting Pitchers)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Reed Saxon - AP

Where does Aaron Cook rank among Colorado's starting pitchers?

Browse more photos »

Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at starting pitcher (through the 2008 season).

Obviously this is not a comprehensive list of all starting pitchers, but all the pitchers who have made a large contribution to the Rockies as starters were weighed, measured, and (often) found wanting. All in all, 54 players were ranked.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how pitching WAR is calculated. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

As I explained last week, starting pitchers are MUCH more valuable than relief pitchers when one is measuring WAR, by and large, due to the fact that WAR is a counting stat. Starting pitchers throw more innings and therefore have a greater influence on the game than do relievers, which stands to reason. This is also the reason why a pitcher like Franklin Morales, who could develop into a dominant closer, would be better off just remaining a starter.

Remember, relief pitchers are often failed starting pitchers who are given an easier task that their skillset will allow them to handle. Nearly every starting pitcher in baseball could be a useful relief pitcher. Very few relief pitchers could be useful starting pitchers. Replacement-level starters can be useful relievers; Juan Rincon is neither.

In any case, what both Smith and the fine folks at Fangraphs have shown is that star starting pitchers are just as valuable if not more so than star position players (and their contracts often bear this point out). Even though a dominant starting pitcher will only play once every five games, they have such a huge influence on whether their team wins the game that it mitigates the difference in playing time between the position player and, say, Troy Tulowitzki.

For instance, this season Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado's top pitcher) has been worth 5.5 WAR while Tulowitzki (the top position player) has accumulated 4.7 WAR. On a macro scale, the Rockies' pitching staff has actually contributed more WAR to the team (23.3, 2nd in MLB) than have the position players (16.5, 17th in MLB).

But I digress.

Like the denizens of the bullpen, a club's starting rotation is often in a constant state of flux due to injuries and inconsistent performance. The fact that the Rockies have only had five pitchers start more than two games this year is quite frankly amazing--the MLB average for this is closer to eight starters. I would say, though, that starting pitching performance is by and large more predictive overall than relief pitching performance due to the larger sample sizes involved in any one year's stats. A reliever can be unduly harmed or helped by luck when used less often--a trend that can see an unpleasant (or pleasant) change the subsequent year.

In order to qualify for consideration for this list the pitchers had to be one of the top five or six starters in innings pitched in a given year or throw over 50 innings for the team in a mostly starting role. It's a relatively deep group, with 14 starting pitchers having delivered at least one league average season (2 WAR) as a starter for the Rockies.

Starting Pitchers

Note: some of these pitchers were both starters and relievers for the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker. I'm ranking eight players to reflect the fact that the modern starting rotation generally uses eight pitchers in any given year.

Keep in mind when reading this list that WAR is a counting stat and therefore longevity counts for quite a bit, especially in this category. Also, Smith's numbers seem to be park-adjusted, therefore pre-humidor pitchers are given a nice park-factor boost to their less-than inspiring numbers (small consolation for having to pitch in an offensive haven.

1. Pedro Astacio

Career WAR: 9.9 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 9.3, 1999-2001 (1st)
Top Season: 5.3, 1999 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.33

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic as an 18 year old by the Dodgers, Pedro Astacio came over to the Rockies as a 27 year old before the waiver trade deadline in 1997 in exchange for Eric Young. Needless to say, trading EY was not originally a popular move with fans, but Astacio soon won over Colorado partisans with his sublime pitching even at Coors Field.

Astacio's third season with the Rockies, 1999, was the greatest pitching season in franchise history (though it will soon likely be surpassed by Jimenez this year) with 5.3 WAR. The 29 year-old righty threw 232 innings, managing a 17-11 record and 210 strikeouts (a club record to this day) despite a 5.04 ERA. Considering that Coors Field in 1999 had a Park Factor of 127 (this year = 107), it was pretty tough to succeed using conventional pitching stats. Astacio's 4.56 FIP and 8.15 K/9 (2.91 K/BB) hold up pretty well in such a poor pitching environment.

In any case, Astacio was traded by Colorado to Houston for homegrown pitcher Scott Elarton at the 2001 trading deadline as he approached free agency. Oddly enough, Astacio's performance never was even replacement level for the rest of his career even when pitching in better environs.

TOGB celebrated Astacio in an edition of Rockies Retro.

2a. Aaron Cook

Career WAR: 10.3 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 7.3, 2006-2008 (2nd)
Top Season: 3.4, 2008 (6th)
Average Rank: 3

You might not have realized it, but Aaron Cook has been pitching for the Rockies since 2002 (and he's signed through 2011 with a mutual option for 2012). His longevity and consistency (he's been over 1 WAR his last five seasons) are what puts the Rockies' 2nd round pick in 1997 near the top of this leaderboard and to the summit of the Rockies' career WAR leaderboard.

Cook's best year was his All-Star season last year, when in the awful beginning of the year he was the only thing keeping the season from becoming a complete disaster. His 16-9 record and 3.96 ERA in 211.1 IP got him on the All-Star team and his 3.76 FIP garnered him 3.4 WAR. His 4.37 career ERA is tops in Rockies history.

Going forward, Cook is a solid middle rotation starter that is locked into the Rockies for a couple of more years. He is already the longest-tenured Rockies starter, and could be one of the few players in today's game to pitch a long career with one club.

2b. Jason Jennings

Career WAR: 9.1 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 6.6, 2004-2006 (3rd)
Top Season: 4.2, 2006 (3rd)
Average Rank: 3

Talk about selling an asset high. Jason Jennings, the jewel of the Rockies' player development system, Rookie of the Year in 2002, coming off of his best season, was traded to the Houston Astros after the 2006 season (and before his third year of arbitration) for Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Hirsh. Dan O'Dowd was lambasted for this trade by most, yet in hindsight this move looks like an absolute steal.

Why? Because Jennings fell off a cliff once leaving the Rockies, sustaining arm injuries and pitching poorly enough that he's now the Rangers' mop-up man. Despite the hard times that have befallen JJ, let us remember his glory.

The 16th overall pick of the 1999 draft out of Baylor, JJ rocketed through the Rockies' system and made his big league debut in 2001, going 4-1 and having a rather memorable debut, pitching a five pitch shutout and hitting a home run. Jennings only got better in 2002, going 16-8 and winning the ROY. However, it was JJ's 2006 that cemented his status as a front line pitcher (or so thought poor Ed Wade).

In 2006 Jennings compiled a 9-13 record but had a 3.78 ERA (4.09 FIP) with 206 Ks (1.67 K/BB) in 212 IP, good enough for 4.2 WAR. And then O'Dowd sold high. What a move that was. His WAR since 2006: -1.1, -0.8. While I appreciate what JJ did for the Rockies, I'm glad O'Dowd let go when he did.

4. Kevin Ritz

Career WAR: 6.6 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 6.5, 1995-1997 (4th)
Top Season: 3.9, 1995 (5th)
Average Rank: 5

Kevin Ritz, a 4th round pick of Detroit in 1985, was picked as the 46th pick of the 1992 expansion draft by the Rockies. Ritz was a rotation regular by 1994 and had a nice two season stretch in 1995 and 1996. Ritz went 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 120 Ks (1.85 K/BB) in 173.1 IP for the Wild Card-winning Rockies in 1995 (3.9 WAR). He followed it up with a 2 WAR 1996, going 17-11.

Ritz's career ended when he was released by the Rockies during the 1998 season after he was unable to overcome arm injuries.

TOGB wrote a nice profile on Ritz in Rockies Retro.

5. Armando Reynoso

Career WAR: 7.6 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.0, 1993-1995 (6th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1993 (8th)
Average Rank: 6

Armando Reynoso, originally purchased by the Braves from his Mexican professional team, was selected by the Rockies with the 58th pick in the expansion draft. Reynoso quickly became Colorado's best pitcher, posting a 3.1 WAR in the team's inaugural season. However, his career was quickly detoured by chronic arm injuries, otherwise he'd be higher on this list. The righty, who possessed an awesome pick-off move, did manage to put up 1.1 and 2.6 WAR seasons in 1995 (half year) and 1996.

The Rockies traded the plucky finesse pitcher to the Mets after the 1996 season for Jerry DiPoto as he became more expensive given his injury risk. Reynoso won a World Series ring with the Diamondbacks despite performing poorly in 2001, his last real MLB season.

TOGB wrote a profile on Reynoso in Rockies Retro.

6. Marvin Freeman

Career WAR: 4.6 (8th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.6, 1994-1996 (T-8th)
Top Season: 4.0, 1994 (4th)
Average Rank: 6.67

Ladies and Gentleman, the single season ERA record holder for the Colorado Rockies! A 31 year-old Marvin Freeman was picked up off the scrap heap by the Rockies after the 1993 season, and though he only had one good season with the team, what a blaze of glory it was!

The imposing (6'7") righty was, quite frankly, amazing in 1994 for the Rockies. In only 112 innings (18 starts), Freeman went 10-2 with 67 Ks (2.91 K/BB) and a 2.80 ERA (3.84 FIP), worth 4.0 WAR!

Of course, in 1995 and 1996 everyone was reminded that Freeman wasn't actually this good (0.9 and -0.3 WAR) and he went away quietly--he was released at the waiver deadline in 1996.

7. John Thomson

Career WAR: 7.2 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.8, 1997-1999 (7th)
Top Season: 2.7, 1997 (10th)
Average Rank: 7.33

Drafted by the Rockies in the 7th round in 1993, Thomson exceeded the production of 1992 2nd round draft pick Mark Thompson, who I often confuse him for. Thomson reached the big leagues in 1997 as a 23 year old and had immediate success, posting 2.7 WAR (7-9, 4.71 ERA) and following that up with another 2.7 WAR (8-11, 4.81) season in 1998.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit Thomson hard after 1998, and he managed only half seasons in 1999 and 2001 with no season at all in 2000. Finally healthy in 2002, Thomson was traded at the July deadline with Mark Little to the Mets for a package that included Jay Payton. After the trade Thomson had a few injury-free years and performed well for the Rangers and the Braves, then was ultimately undone by more injuries.

8. Jeff Francis

Career WAR: 6.2 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.7, 2006-2008 (5th)
Top Season: 2.5, 2006 (13th)
Average Rank: 8.33

The 9th overall pick in the 2002 draft out of Canada, Jeff Francis moved rapidly through the Rockies' system and was with the big club by 2004 as a 23 year old. Francis finished sixth in the ROY voting in 2005, his first full season, then enjoyed two very nice years in 2006 and 2007.

The soft-tossing lefty equaled Ritz's and Astacio's franchise wins mark with his 17-9 record in 2007 (he had 2.2 WAR) and finished 9th in the Cy Young Award voting. However, he suffered a torn labrum after a tough 2008 and has been rehabbing the injury since then.

The Physicist has one year left on his contract ($5.75 million) with a $7 million club option for 2010. It will be interesting to see if Francis can ever return to his early form and make it worthwhile for the Rockies to exercise that option. I've taken a pretty pessimistic view on this injury from the start, so my money is that Francis will never contribute significantly to the team again. I would love to be proved wrong though.

Other great single seasons include Joe Kennedy's 2004 (4.7 WAR) and Roger Bailey's 1997 (3.2).

Career Underachievers: Mike Hampton (-1, though he was worth 2 WAR batting), Denny Neagle (1.1), Scott Elarton (-2.9), and Livan Hernandez (-1.2).

Others of note: Jimenez (3.4 and on his way to a place high on this list very soon), Darryl Kile (4.1), Jamey Wright (4.6), Shawn Chacon (2.2, but 3.9 as a starter), Josh Fogg (-0.6) Greg Reynolds (-1.5).

Next week I'll reveal the unholy amalgamation that is the Colorado Rockies All-WAR team.

Big Z At Altitude: Cubs vs. Rockies Preview, Friday 8/7, 8:10 CT

Al — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 23:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Write your own caption.

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When the Cubs last saw the Rockies, it was a lot colder than it is today, the Rockies had a different manager, and the two teams split a brief two-game series at Wrigley Field in April. Since Clint Hurdle was fired and replaced by Jim Tracy on May 27, the Rockies are 41-21, best record in the NL since that date by a wide margin.

So it's a far different Rockies team the Cubs will see, and playing in Denver is always a challenge, though the Cubs are 8-7 there since 2004. Let's hope they can keep the game times straight -- this four-game, wraparound-till-Monday series has four different starting times (8:10 CT tonight, then 7:10 CT, 2:10 CT and 7:40 CT).

The Rockies have had, in their 16-year history, only four full qualifying seasons by a pitcher who had a season ERA under 4.00 -- Joe Kennedy in 2004, Jason Jennings in 2006, and Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez, tonight's starter, last year. Jimenez, currently with an ERA of 3.76, has a chance to be (along with Cook, who the Cubs won't see in this series) the first pitcher to accomplish that twice.

Meanwhile, Geovany Soto will be reactivated for tonight's game; at this writing it's not clear who will return to Iowa, but my choice would be Micah Hoffpauir, who needs more AB's. Lou says that Koyie Hill, who has done an outstanding job in starting the last 26 games in a row, will now be getting anywhere from 30-40% of the starts the rest of the way:

"We know the record," Piniella said. "He's done a really, really nice job, and we're appreciative, but we have to get Soto ready to catch, too. It might be 60-40, two-thirds, one-third, I don't know exactly how [they'll share playing time]. Believe me, we're not going to go strictly one way."

Finally, Bruce Miles' column today has some notes about whether Andrew Cashner will get a September callup (he won't) and some other notes about rising stars in the system, as well as praise for Bob Brenly's criticisms on Wednesday's telecast:

When Milton Bradley pulled up short on Willy Taveras' pop foul fly in the first inning, Brenly said: "Milton Bradley takes two more steps, that's an easy play for him."

And when Alfonso Soriano got picked off base in the seventh to kill whatever chance the Cubs had to rally against Justin Lehr, Brenly noted not only the pickoff, but Soriano's nonchalant manner at first.

"Do you know what I said about having a feel for the game?" Brenly asked. "There you go."

That was it. He didn't harp or bring up either situation later.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies

7-6	W-L	8-9
3.35	ERA	3.76
101	SO	128
57	BB	54
8	HR	8
vs. Col	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	7-4	27	20	0	0	0	0	123.2	110	52	46	8	57	101	3.35	1.35

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	8-9	22	22	1	0	0	0	143.2	126	61	60	8	54	128	3.76	1.25

Ubaldo Jimenez, despite his good record the last couple of years, has never defeated the Cubs: 0-3, 7.27 in four starts, and that's with three of them being in Wrigley Field. Most of that damage has been done by players other than those on the current roster; only Aramis Ramirez (3-for-5) has homered off him among players currently on the team. However, Alfonso Soriano, who is 1-for-6 vs. Jimenez, has 36 career AB in Coors Field, in which he has hit .472/.513/.944 with six doubles, a triple and three home runs. Coors Field seems the perfect place for a hitter like Soriano when he's hot.

Meanwhile, Z has never defeated the Rockies in Denver (0-2), though he is 2-4, 3.13 in eight overall starts vs. Colorado. He hasn't faced them in over two years, since June 27, 2007 at Wrigley Field, and not in Denver since August 4, 2004. (Amusement value: check out who led off for the Rockies that day.) Current Rockies are hitting .169 (10-for-59) against Z and none of them has homered off him.

TV tonight is once again cable-only, CSN Chicago and FSN Rocky Mountain. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Rockies site Purple Row.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 9:15 pm, 10:15 pm and 11 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Dollars and Sense Part Seven: Dollar Win Values

Jabberwocky — Fri, 29 May 2009 09:50:48 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Per Fangraphs' dollar value metric, Ubaldo Jimenez was worth $3 million to the Rockies in 2007 and $12.9 million in 2008. So far in 2009 Jimenez has been worth $7.4 million.

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In this fashionably late edition of Purple Row Academy, I shift gears from Positional Payroll Distribution to an examination of the Rockies' historical Win Value data, courtesy of Fangraphs, compared to both the Rockies' marginal wins over that period and their ODPs. This session is, (for now, at least), the conclusion to my Dollars and Sense series. In two weeks I'll be back with a new area of study for your learning enjoyment.

My analysis on this topic covers the period from 2002 to 2008. Why this period? Well, Fangraphs' win value data only goes back to 2002, and since the Win Value data is comprised of counting stats, the eight weeks of 2009 data available to us can be quite misleading. When calculating payroll efficiency in the past I have used a team's ODP, as it best represents a club's expectations for a full season of how much their players are worth--and applying win value concepts to the Rockies for only part of the 2009 season would be irresponsible. Here is the Rockies' 2009 win values data for those that are interested. It looks like our 3B platoon of Garrett Atkins and Ian Stewart owes the Rockies $7.1 million this year so far.

So how are these values calculated? At the risk of stepping on RMN's toes a little bit, Fangraphs guru Dave Cameron has a seven part series explaining their calculation--basically explaining the WAR (wins above replacement) concept (as well as another seven part series concerning pitchers' win value). For the purposes of this article, though, I looked at his explanation of the conversion of win value to dollar value. The equation heavily involves the concept of marginal wins.

As I wrote in my MP/MW column, the minimum winning % assumed by the formula is .300, or 48.6 wins over a 162 game slate of games. Every team, even spending the minimum on player salary, will surpass this mark. As Cameron puts it, the result of this concept:

There are about 1,000 marginal wins in a major league season. All 30 teams are fighting over these 1,000 wins, each trying to get more than 45 or so to get them in the playoffs.

Every dime a major league team spends above the major league minimum is theoretically spent in an effort to buy as many of those 1,000 wins as possible.

As I figured out using the MP/MW formula, in 2008 the theoretical minimum payroll was $10.92 million--creating a price floor for MLB of $327.6 million. Note that Cameron has calculated this number as $12 million per team, but this is incorrect according to my methodology. Meanwhile, as I mentioned a few weeks ago, total MLB ODP was $2,697,392,597. Subtracting the price floor from the total payroll and dividing that number by 1000 marginal wins gives the theoretical average cost per marginal win in MLB. For 2008, that was about $2.37 million. According to my own calculations a couple of weeks ago, this number is closer to $2.7 million, but let's run with Cameron's number.

This would be really easy, but as Cameron mentions, many of these players are in the pre-arbitration and arbitration stages of service time--players whose salaries were not determined by the free market system. These players provide their teams with production that comes cheaper than the $2.37 million average cost per MW. In addition, many players simply aren't available to other teams due to their high values to their franchise. These factors make the pool of available marginal wins much smaller than 1000, and much more expensive than $2.37 million.

With his system, Cameron is effectively trying to find out the cost per marginal win of free agency. His definition of the market cost per MW is the mean of the dollars per win handed out to free agents in any given year. In other words, he calculates the free agent class' WAR values from the previous year and divides the total salary pool by that net WAR amount. Here's his calculation from 2007:

90 free agents signed major league contracts last winter, ranging from Alex’s Rodriguez $275 million deal to Josh Towers' $400,000 contract with the Rockies. The sum of those 90 contracts paid out $396 million in 2008. To figure out what the average cost per win of a 2007 free agent was, though, we need to know how many wins that group was worth.

To calculate this, I did a three year weighted average of their win values, then multiplied that value by .95 to factor in aging and estimate what teams considered a player’s true talent win rate for 2008. In total, I came up with 88 wins, or $4.5 million per win. That’s what major league teams were paying for a marginal win last winter, so for 2008, that’s a players dollar per win value as listed on the site. I re-did this for all years going back to 2002, and the dollars per win for each are as follows:

2002 - $2.6m / win
2003 - $2.8m / win
2004 - $3.1m / win
2005 - $3.4m / win
2006 - $3.7m / win
2007 - $4.1m / win
2008 - $4.5m / win

So, if the Rockies wanted to get into the free agent market this past offseason (not that they really have since the Hampton/Neagle fiasco) , they could expect to pay a staggering $4.5 million per marginal win, more than double the MLB average rate per MW. This inefficiency in the free agent market illustrates the importance of teams (especially those in small markets) getting lots of production from their young cost-controlled players.

Historically, the Rockies have had varying degrees of success on this regard. Due to the nature of the calculation (each WAR in the dollar value calculation being equal to the market cost per MW, which was higher than the average cost per MW), the Rockies are consistently receiving a higher "dollar value" from their roster than their ODP may suggest. However, if this "dollar value" concept would be adjusted to reflect merely the average cost per MW each year (in other words, taking into account all players instead of just free agents), then the "dollar value" numbers would often be below a team's ODP--especially if that team rates low on the MP/MW formula.

Join me after the jump as I briefly examine each Rockies team using a couple different efficiency metrics from 2002 to 2008...

Rockies Dollar Win Values by Year

For each year from 2002-2008, I'll summarize the success of each team through a few different metrics that I've covered this session and in previous sessions. After each season I'll add a little commentary that I found interesting when looking closely at the data. If anyone wants the spreadsheet of win value data that I compiled in researching this article (complete with formulas!), just e-mail me and I'll send it to you.

2002
ODP: $56,851,043
W-L Record: 73-89
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $778,781
MP: $51,251,043
MW: 24.4
MP/MW: $2,100,453
Team WAR: 24.5
Dollar Value of Player Production: $65,700,000

Notable about the 2002 team is the fact that the Rockies' pitching staff, led by Jason Jennings (3.0 WAR), produced a woeful 12.6 WAR--and when you factor in the pitching staff's negative hitting value, this number is an even worse 9.2 WAR. On a positive note, Todd Helton (5.9 WAR) and Larry Walker (5.6 WAR) were worth $16.4 and $15.6 million respectively--accounting for nearly half of the team's entire player production value. In a year in which Helton was paid $5 million, he came at a relative bargain to Colorado.

2003
ODP: $67,179,667
W-L Record: 74-88
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $907,833
MP: $58,779,667
MW: 25.4
MP/MW: $2,314,160
Team WAR: 30
Dollar Value of Player Production: $84,500,000

While on the surface the Rockies were slightly more successful in 2003 than they had been in 2002, they were a markedly less efficient ballclub. With a roster that produced 5.5 more WAR, the Rockies were only able to emerge with one more win. Generally, a team's MW and WAR numbers should be relatively even...with the luckier teams outperforming their WAR. This is reflected in the Rockies' high MP/MW ratio.

Continuing the Helton thread, the ToddFather was even better in 2003--becoming a 6.8 WAR player, worth about $19.1 million to the Rockies for his $10.6 million salary. The Rockies' "top" pitcher in 2003 was none other than Darren Oliver and his 2.7 net WAR. Overall, the pitchers produced 11.3 WAR (with FA busts Hampton and Neagle contributing nothing and -0.6 WAR respectively). Also of note was Garrett Atkins' -1.1 WAR.

2004
ODP: $65,445,167
W-L Record: 68-94
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $962,429
MP: $57,045,167
MW: 19.4
MP/MW: $2,940,473
Team WAR: 25.2
Dollar Value of Player Production: $78,400,000

This team was the least efficient (and very nearly the least effective) team in Rockies' history, with each MW costing almost $3 million. In addition, the Rockies underperformed their WAR by nearly 6 wins and posting their worst year in linear payroll efficiency.

The story of the year was the worst pitching staff assembled by the Rockies during the Humidor Era. They were "led" by Joe Kennedy's 2.3 WAR and produced a net of only 6.5 WAR. Yikes! Helton was paid $11.6 million and produced $21 million (6.8 WAR)--a huge portion of the team's total production. Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Brad Hawpe also contributed 1.6, 0.2, and -0.4 WAR respectively.

2005
ODP: $48,155,000
W-L Record: 67-95
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $718,731
MP: $39,307,000
MW: 18.4
MP/MW: $2,136,250
Team WAR: 24.2
Dollar Value of Player Production: $83,300,000

While this edition of the Rockies lost one more game than their predecessors and produced less WAR, at least they did it a little more efficiently due to the much lower 2005 payroll. In 2005, the Rockies' pitchers bounced back somewhat with a 9.2 WAR. They were actually led by Brian Fuentes' net 1.6 WAR from the bullpen. Meanwhile, Helton remained the Rockies' top dollar value producer, getting paid $12.6 million to produce $17.4 million (5.1 WAR). Finally, Holliday, Atkins, and Hawpe produced 3.3, 2.5, and -0.6.

2006
ODP: $41,233,000
W-L Record: 76-86
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $542,539
MP: $32,077,000
MW: 27.4
MP/MW: $1,170,693
Team WAR: 33.1
Dollar Value of Player Production: $121,800,000

In 2006 the Rockies saw the first fruits of Gen-R blossom, enjoying a career year from Atkins--who led the team with 5.9 WAR ($22 million)--and excellent seasons by Holliday (4.4, $16.4) and Hawpe (2.8, $10.5). However, this was the first year in which Helton underperformed his contract, producing 2.4 WAR and $9 million for $16.6 million--illustrating the danger of back-loaded contracts.

The Rockies' pitching also improved markedly, enjoying a renaissance of sorts by JJ (3.5 WAR) that O'Dowd actually took advantage of as well as solid years from Aaron Cook (3.0) and Jeff Francis (2.7)--overall a staff WAR of 15.3. Moving to the efficiency metrics, the Rockies achieved their best rating in linear payroll efficiency and a high mark in MP/MW as well, though they underachieved their WAR by 5.7.

2007
ODP: $54,424,000
W-L Record: 90-73
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $604,711
MP: $43,784,000
MW: 41.1
MP/MW: $1,065,304
Team WAR: 41.6
Dollar Value of Player Production: $170,200,000

Ah, 2007. What a year to be a Rockies fan! According to the efficiency metrics, the 2007 Rockies were hardly a fluke. They simply played up to their WAR production and posted their best MP/MW value while producing an incredible $170.2 million of dollar value. There are too many good things to count that happened in 2007, but here's a few:

Matt Holliday was a BEAST (7.9 WAR, $32.2 million)--in other words, this metric suggests that Matt was worth A-Rod money.
Troy Tulowitzki put up All-Star numbers (5.3 WAR, $21.6 million) as a rookie.
Helton (4.9 WAR, $20 million) once again outperformed his $16.6 million contract.
Jeff Francis' 3.7 net WAR led a staff that finished with a 15.5 WAR

2008
ODP: $68,655,500
W-L Record: 74-88
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $927,777
MP: $57,735,500
MW: 25.4
MP/MW: $2,273,051
Team WAR: 31.4
Dollar Value of Player Production: $141,300,000

Given the warm afterglow of the 2007 season as well as the $14 million payroll hike, the Rockies' 2008 season was seen as a great disappointment, and the numbers bear this out. The Rockies regressed to their WAR underachieving ways while producing a poor score in LPE and MP/MW. The good news for the Rockies in 2008 was the tremendous growth of Ubaldo Jimenez, who despite a very poor (-1.5) hitting WAR managed a 2.9 WAR, and possibly the best year by a Rockies' pitcher ever, Aaron Cook's net 4.3 WAR. In all, the staff had a 15.4 WAR.

Instead, it was the Rockies' hitters who regressed in 2008. Despite Holliday's excellent 6.2 WAR, $28 million campaign and Chris Iannetta's dreamy breakout (3.8 WAR, $16.9 million), the Rockies' position players produced only 16 WAR--far less than 2007's 26.1 WAR. The main culprits were the regression of Atkins (0.6 WAR), Tulowitzki (0.8), and Hawpe (-0.7). All of this added up to a disappointing 2008 campaign.

Meanwhile, Helton's injury-plagued 1.5 WAR, $6.9 million season was well below his $16.6 million pay grade. By the dollar value metric, from 2002 to 2008, Helton produced $109.8 million of value (33.4 WAR) for the Rockies while getting paid $89.6 million over the time period. In other words, Helton has been a bargain thus far for the Rockies purely in terms of on-field production.

Unfortunately, Todd is still owed a minimum of $56.9 million more over the next four years (2009 included) and probably won't produce $36.7 million worth of value--though with his hot start this year it is not inconceivable. That and his blocking of young, cost-controlled talent at 1B is the reason that I don't agree with these kinds of contracts, though Todd has certainly done his best to live up to his.

2009

Thus far in 2009, the Rockies' position players have produced a mere 3.5 WAR through 46 games compared to the pitching staff's pretty nice net 5.4 WAR. In other words, the pitching thus far for Colorado has been decent, it's the hitting that has let the Rockies down. I'll be closely monitoring the Rockies' progress this year using these metrics...and unfortunately I predict that we'll end up with a year that could be our least efficient yet as a franchise.

Sources and Additional Reading

Fangraphs! I can't emphasize the awesomeness of this website as a resource for baseball statistics. If you haven't already, make sure to explore the site--especially the links that I posted within the article.

Specifically, look at the Fangraphs Glossary, which explains some of their advanced metrics.

For contract data, I once again used Cot's Contracts by Jeff Euston.

For explanations of some other terms used in this article, see these previous PR Academy sessions:

ODP Analysis

MLB Payroll Efficiency

Marginal Payroll and Marginal Wins