SB Nation - Brandon Lyon

Reactions to the Astros' transactions, by the numbers

DyingQuail — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:17:40 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Little know fact: Never has one player's $15 million contract ever caused so much vitriol, disdain, or such a fracas of negativity—about 86% of which was unwarranted (mine included). Congratulations, Brandon Lyon.

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There are a few sources that I trust and value for their penchant/availability for sabermetric insight/resources. It's no secret that TCB has a sabr-slant with a streak of Astros-homerism mixed in as well. I imagine that such is the plight for an sabr-fan. Not surprisingly, the Astros have taken a beating this week in the majority of the places I referenced, but there have been a few that shrugged their shoulders with relative indifference, possibly bordering on distanced approval.

In spite of my professed sabr-leanings, as I'm sure you've gathered, I'm prone to a more subjective gut reaction that I'll then cloud with number's based evidence, and roll from there. Eventually, the emotions will die down, and I'll filter through all the statistical evidence (Usually clack will do that for me off the bat. Clack is like my sabr-fan sensei.). Consider this post a post-moretum recap from the various statistical voices who have either denounced or did not denounce (I really don't think anyone truly approved of any deal, just couldn't find a strong reason to disapprove).

I'll break the reactions down by three categories: The Indifferent, the bad, and the ugly, but move in reverse order. After the jump

The Ugly:

Per usual, the pundits at Fan Graphs didn't hesitate to lambast one of their favorite whipping boys: Ed Wade. Dave Cameron called Brandon Lyon's signing the worst of the winter, citing luck inflated stats, mediocre FIP, and value that won't match his contract. Below, Zach Levine takes him to task, and clack has already fleshed out the weaknesses of Cameron's argument here in a few places. Matthew Carruth also decreed the Pedro Feliz signing as terrible reasoning:

Addressing the hole at third base is a good idea for Houston, but you don’t address a hole by filling it with air. You already have plenty of air; why bother paying money to import premium air from Philadelphia?

Whether their arguments resonant as truth, depends on how much faith you want to put in the numbers that they cite. While I initially was on board with Lyon as being a miserable signing, I've backed off that stance since, and I never saw the Feliz deal in such a negative light. There's a certain level of sabr-dogmatism that seems to filter through these two assessments of the Ed Wade's moves from the week and that's never a healthy approach.

It should be noted that Fan Graphs did approve of the Matt Lindstrom signing at the time.

The Bad:

Beyond the Box Score didn't exactly crucify Ed Wade like Cameron and Carruth did at Fan Graphs, but they were far from giving Ed Wade credit. They were able to read positives into all three transactions of the week, but also a lot to cringe at, too. While caustic of the Lyon signing, they approved of the Lindstrom deal, and could, in the end, see some positive in the Feliz signing.

Zach Levine crunched the numbers that Cameron cited for Lyon and came to a far more neutral assessment of Lyon's penchant to produce for the Astros. Levine pretty much sees the potential for upside in all three of the Astros transactions the week, but can't find a lot to smile at, either. Reading through his summary of the transaction, I glean a disapproval, but nowhere is their the vitriol that Fan Graphs ladled on the deals:

The Astros have to hope that was some AL jitters or something and not some mistrust of his stuff as the clock struck 30. Carry that mediocre walk rate, which he'd never had before, and return that BABIP to average, and you've got yourself a very mediocre pitcher for a killer price....With Feliz's 35th birthday coming in April, Astros fans have to hope that steady OPS doesn't begin to decline and that he's still got it defensively, though I can't imagine the Astros will lean on him for 158 games like the Phillies did last year....As for Matt Lindstrom, that seems like a fine move, and people I trust who have seen the minor leaguers have told me the haven't given up anything they couldn't afford to, and I think the price is right and his production will level off from last year's bad ERA.

Levine kind of straddles both the Bad and the Indifferent, but I feel like he sits more in the Bad camp than the Indifferent.

The Indifferent:

Professor of economics, JC Bradbury is currently at work on a book about the Hot Stove. He's already published on book on economics and baseball, too. So when he renders an opinion on the matters of player valuation, my ear's perk up. Bradbury, of all the sabr-slanted writers I've read, came the closest of any to giving a implicit seal of approval to Ed Wade's deals.

For both Lyon and Feliz, Bradbury believes the Astros will actually garner surplus value from the contracts. For Lyon, he even stated that the deal seems right. Not that it's a good deal, but that price tag fits the purchase. Feliz, the same thing.

Finally, Fan Graphs did like the Lindstrom signing, so I'll tally it in the Good.

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There are more links that could fit in the bad and the ugly categories, but they would just be repetitions of the same arguments—basically. We've already noted all the relevant projections for all the players that will soon be donning an Astros uniform here, and in all it looks like this week has resulted in a marginally improved baseball team (if you consider the fact that the Astros couldn't afford to hold onto Valverde and Tejada). Does this mean Ed Wade did a good job this week? As fans, we seem to be leaning towards the indifferent to bad categories. Considering that Ed Wade had a limited budget, little chance of gaining premium pieces, has upgraded the defense, and at least filled the bull pen with average to slightly above-average relievers for around $11.5 million in extra spending, I don't think the week was ugly.

Whether it was bad or indifferent, though, is hard to say—at least by the numbers. Arguments can be made for either cause, it just depends on how you want to spin it: As a sabr-slanted observer, or as a fan looking for hope in 2010.

Ed Wade and the Astros' busy week: How would you grade it?

DyingQuail — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:36:20 -0000

via cache.daylife.com What grade will Ed Wade receive?

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It's been a crazy few days. Tension mounted. Emotions ran high. Ed Wade made headlines. The dust has officially settled in Indianapolis, but not so much around these parts. Tomorrow, I imagine that Matt Lindstrom, Brandon Lyon, and Pedro Feliz will be paraded in front of the media and don their Astros jerseys.

As the people who've weaseled their ways into the publishing content at this place, we gotten to be outspoken about our feelings. Front and center so to speak. I'll quickly recap them:

On Pedro Feliz (whom clack deemed to be not a bad signing):

Yes, that defense has deteriorated with his age and yes, he doesn't get on base. But, Feliz is a much better player at this point than Blum and can provide a good stopgap until the club feels Chris Johnson is ready to go.

On Brandon Lyon (who made me lose sleep):

If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. But for the Astros—especially after the Lindstrom trade—Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?

On Matt Lindstrom (who won Ed Wade good will):

Who else were the Astros going to get for three years at controlled money? None of the free agents were going to sign for that little over that many years, nor would the Astros want to commit to any of them for that long.

Opinions, outside of ours, varied around these parts—and rightfully so. But let's not let those varied opinions, and our respective rights to them, stand in the way of forming some kind of consensus opinion on the subject. You have to reactions we had and the links where you can review the various discussions surrounding them; basically everything you'd ever need to evaluate Ed Wade's big week. So what say you?

Evening Prowl: Grandy Talks, Questioning the Plan, and Mark Schlereth Changes Hats

Ian Casselberry — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:25:50 -0000

If you haven't seen it yet, Curtis Granderson talked to The Big Lead today. Among the topics discussed was whether he would've been traded if the Tigers had won Game 163, the fan reaction in Detroit to him being traded, and which outfield position he might play next season.

(Thanks to allikazoo for linking to this in a FanShot.)

The Freep's Michael Rosenberg wonders if the Tigers really have a plan right now. If so, why does it seem to keep changing? And how many times did it change throughout the course of this season?

I'd just add this thought, based on a conversation I had with Kurt: If the plan has changed - and it seems to have done so since 2006 - how much of that is because of Dave Dombrowski, and how much is on Mike Ilitch?

As this week's big trade was close to being completed, The Daily Fungo's Mike McClary (an Arizona resident) sent me a text message that ESPN NFL analyst Mark Schlereth attended many Diamondbacks games to see his son, Daniel, pitch. So he could be at plenty of Tigers games.

Sure enough, Schlereth declared a change in his baseball fandom today. "Long live the Detroit Tigers and the English D," he said as he donned a Tigers cap on the "Mike & Mike" show this morning. You can see the video here. (Couldn't ESPN spring for a fitted hat? Or is the former NFL player's head so big that he needs the adjustable?)

Fangraphs' Dave Cameron says moves like the Astros giving Brandon Lyon a three-year, $15 million contract are "why the team isn’t good, and won’t be good any time soon." But Lyon plays with remote-controlled airplanes, man.

According to the Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec, Fernando Rodney tops the Orioles' list of available free agent closers after meeting with his people in Indianapolis.

I don't usually do this (probably because it doesn't happen very often), but if it turns out that the Tigers sign Scott Podsednik, I would like to channel Tony Kornheiser and say, "I may have had that one right."

Another item on the Tigers' to-do list during these Winter Meetings was to find Tom Brookens' successor as manager in Double-A Erie. But it looks like former Tiger Phil Nevin is the man to take over. The hiring hasn't been formally announced yet, but was reported by the L.A. Times. Nevin played for Detroit from 1995-1997.

(Thanks to KidRick48 - formerly known as granderson28 - for posting this news in a FanShot.)

I know the Tigers have plenty of relievers right now, but when I see that the Oakland A's released Santiago Casilla, I feel like that's a guy Detroit should take a chance on. No, he didn't have a good year (5.96 ERA), due largely to calf and knee injuries. (And an elbow injury put him on the DL in 2008.) But he can strike out some batters.

Beyond The Box Score On The Astros Signing Brandon Lyon, Pedro Feliz & Acquiring Matt Lindstrom

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

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After watching former Astro, LaTroy Hawkins received $7.5 million dollars from the Brewers, Ed Wade did the unthinkable and handed DOUBLE that to Brandon Lyon on a three-year deal. I don't want to beat up on Brandon Lyon here because it's not his fault that Wade saw a 2.86 ERA in 2009, and said "that's the guy I want to pay $5 million dollars annually until 2012."

Lyon is your average run of the mill relief pitcher. He's seen better days in the past, and has moonlighted as a closer every so often, however, overall he's pretty mediocre. With a career ERA of 4.20 and a near matching FIP of 4.23, you could easily find similar talent wasting away in Triple-A somewhere (Winston Abreu, R.J.?).

Lyon is pretty consistent, and will give you 60+ innings out of the bullpen; that's about the most positive thing I can say about that. His strikeout rates aren't impressive and he walked 3.5 batters per nine in 2009. His sexy ERA is clearly due to a lower than normal BABIP (.229) and a higher than normal for him LOB% (80.1). He did earn a decent 0.7 WAR last season, but 57 other relief pitchers earned at least that last season (min 50 relief innings).

Signing Lyon isn't a bad move. Had this been a two-year deal worth something like $2-3 million dollars, nobody would've had a big problem with that. But that would've been too normal.

The Astros also acquired Matt Lindstrom, who along with Lyon will essentially replace Hawkins and Jose Valverde at the back end of the bullpen. Unlike the Lyon deal, I actually like the acquisition of Lindstrom. With the Rays being one of the rumored places for him before the trade, I brushed on some of his history and I can see why teams would take a chance on him.

30 in February, Lindstrom has the velocity scouts swoon over. However, that hasn't turned into the strikeout rates one would expect. His 7.55 career K/9 is not that impressive and he has walked over four batters per nine in each of the last two seasons. His ERA of 5.89 is inflated by a .342 BABIP, but his career FIP of 4.22 suggests that he is pretty much Brandon Lyon for less.

Being arbitration eligible meant that he was getting too rich for the Marlins blood and instead of non-tendering him, they simply passed him off to Houston for two non-descript prospects. Lindstrom's HR/FB jumped to 9.3% in 2009 after keeping it under 3% for two seasons. I guess it was just regression making up for lost time. A ground-ball pitcher, I would guess his rates would settle in the 6-8% range, but pitching in Houston isn't going to help that much. Again, Lindstrom isn't anything special, but his ERA should keep him from being too expensive in arbitration.

I guess our pal Ed Wade is allergic to making two good deals in a week as he took whatever good will gained in acquiring Lindstrom and threw that away in another head scratching signing. It's no secret that the Astros had a black hole at third base, but that's been the case for a few years now. Passing the duties from one utility man to another for the past few seasons, Wade seemingly put a stop to that and got his man.

Thanks to a one-year, $4.5 million dollar deal, the Astros third base problem will be solved by Pedro Feliz. Yes, the same Pedro Feliz who hit .266/.308/.386 in 625 PAs last season. In fact, he has not posted a wOBA over .307 in any of the last five seasons. Sadly, that shouldn't be a surprise since his career wOBA is .306.

Feliz has made a nice living from having an above-average glove at third base, but his bat is terrible. Not to mention, he'll be 35 years-old soon after opening day 2010. Did I mention that Happy Pete also has a career .288 OBP against RHP which just happens to cover like 65% of the league?

Some where Melvin Mora and his 89 kids are hoping that there's one more Ed Wade Christmas miracle to be had this winter.

Today's Game: Who's! The! Closer?

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:00:28 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Brandon Lyon will be patting another catcher's head next season, as he's agreed to a three-year deal with the Houston Astros.

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If you didn't already grasp the idea that the 2010 Detroit Tigers baseball club would look different from the 2009 edition, further evidence of that came last night with the news that Brandon Lyon was set to sign with the Houston Astros.

Earlier in the evening, there were rumblings that Lyon was looking for a two-year, $9 million contract, in light of the two-year, $7.5 million deal LaTroy Hawkins signed with the Milwaukee Brewers. And that probably would've been too rich for the Tigers.

So when Lyon ends up agreeing to a three-year, $15 million contract, it's probably safe to say Detroit was never really in the running to re-sign him. Unfortunately, this is the guy the Tigers were presumably hoping would be their closer in 2010. Now, they probably have to go to "Plan B."

But if "Plan B" was Fernando Rodney, he might not be available, either. (I'm thinking Rodney wasn't the Tigers' Plan B, however.) Dave Dombrowski called it "a long shot." And now that the Phillies have lost out on Lyon, they might be targeting Rodney. The buzz around Rodney has almost been non-existent during the offseason, though there were rumblings in early November that the Phillies were interested.

(via The Detroit Tigers Weblog)

Even a lower-cost veteran reliever like J.J. Putz, which seemed like a near-ideal fit for the Tigers, might be out of reach. Reports out of Chicago have the White Sox nearing an agreement with him.

These developments might leave Detroit with no other choice but to go with an in-house option. And considering the investment this team has made in young relievers over the past three years (including the two just acquired in the Curtis Granderson-Edwin Jackson trade), maybe that's a direction the Tigers should've gone in anyway.

Could Joel Zumaya be the first candidate for the closer job? Dombrowski said the team feels he's ready. That might make a lot of fans cringe, given his recent injury. (And surely, the Tigers are nervous about that, as well.) But if he is healthy - and that's been such a big "if" over the past three years - he may be the best choice.

Zumaya has four seasons of experience (not four full seasons, mind you), and if you're a believer that a closer needs to have a certain mindset, being "the man" for the ninth inning appears to be a role he relishes. Plus - and this is not an unimportant point - Jim Leyland seems to trust him.

If Zumaya ends up being the favorite, however, the Tigers need an insurance policy. That's where the depth of young relievers comes in.

Should Ryan Perry be next in line? Zach Miner? (Leyland seems to prefer that sinker for groundball situations, though.) Casey Fien didn't impress all that much in his first two major league stints, but he did save 14 games for the Mud Hens. Is Cody Satterwhite (12 saves with Double-A Erie this year) ready for the big leagues? Robbie Weinhardt? What about Daniel Schlereth?

Who else would you like to see get a shot?

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:20:18 -0000

by Brian Snyder - AP

Yes, Randy Wolf is a Brewer now.

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Some things to read while remembering that "port" is "left."

Welcome to day one of the Randy Wolf era (FanShot). He'll make $29.5 million over the next three seasons, plus an option for 2010. Reaction to the deal has come from everywhere:

Miller Park Drunk credits the Brewers for signing the best available free agent.
Master Reid of Quevedo at the Buffet says it's a gamble the Brewers had to take at this point.
Erik Manning of FanGraphs explains why this deal shouldn't be compared to the Jeff Suppan signing.
Jordan also offered his thoughts on that topic, and reasonable expectations for Wolf.
Adam McCalvy noted that Wolf's deal is the third richest for a pitcher in team history.
Jorge Says No! says the Brewers are "going for it" in 2010.
Babes Love Baseball thinks the Brewers overpaid for him.
Aaron Gleeman says he'd rather have the deal Rich Harden signed with the Rangers.
Wolf's contract inspired Rob Neyer to write a two parter on the economics of player salaries.
Meanwhile, Diamond Leung has a quote from Wolf about the divorce situation with the McCourts that might have led to Wolf's departure from Los Angeles.

But, the Brewers weren't done there: They decided to burn a little extra money by overpaying for bullpen help. The result is a two-year, $7.5 million deal for LaTroy Hawkins (FanShot). The move ensures the Brewers will have at least three pitchers in their bullpen earning more than $3.5 million next season (Hoffman, Riske and now Hawkins), as well as two pitchers with closing experience, both of which are 37 or older. Two more links on Hawkins: one good, one bad.

Aaron Gleeman notes that Hawkins has posted a 3.35 ERA over the last six seasons, in 379 innings.
Brian McTaggart quoted Hawkins as being "very disappointed" about leaving Houston, which is pretty much exactly what you don't want to hear from a guy you just threw a lot of perfectly good money at.

Both signings and a few other topics came up in Doug Melvin's MLB Network interview last night, which Tristarscoop chronicled for us, in case you missed it.

Since then, Doug Melvin's had an interesting 12 hours or so. First, a valet lost the keys to his car. Then, after presumably getting a ride back to the meetings, Melvin raised his offer to Craig Counsell. Melvin seems confident a deal will get done, and if he's saying so, that means he's pretty sure. Counsell has also spoken to the Reds, but it doesn't sound like there's much happening there.

Meanwhile, what once looked like a sure thing still isn't done: Mark Mulder remains unsigned, and now the Royals are also showing interest in his services.(h/t MLB Trade Rumors)

The Brewers also filled one more spot on their 40 man roster, selecting Indians lefty Chuck Lofgren in the Rule 5 Draft (FanShot). In a later post, Baseball America called him one of the best stories taken. It sounds like he's had a rough couple of years, but he's a big, athletic lefty who throws hard (90-93), so he's exactly the kind of pitcher the Brewers should be seeking out to work with Rick Peterson.

Can't get enough Triple G? Batter's Box Interactive has some photos from a Gregg Zaun at bat in Toronto last season. Zaun was also the starting point for today's Thursday Thinker: stop back for that at noon.

You still have a few hours to cast your vote for a second baseman on our BCB All Decade Team. Voting for that position closes at 4 today. Prince Fielder officially became the first Brewer elected to the team yesterday. Voting for a shortstop opened yesterday and closes at 4 tomorrow. Voting at third base, perhaps the most ~~depressing~~ interesting choice on the team, will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Astros: Acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL, and signed Brandon Lyon to a three year, $15 million deal.
Mariners: Signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. (FanShot) Also re-signed infielder Josh Wilson.
Mets: Re-negotiated their contract with Henry Blanco, due to concerns over the health of his shoulder.
Orioles: Acquired Kevin Millwood from the Rangers for reliever Chris Ray and a PTBNL.
Padres: Released pitcher Eulogio de la Cruz.
Rangers: Agreed to terms on a one year, $7.5 million deal with Rich Harden, with a club option for 2011 and acquired Mike Lowell from the Red Sox for catcher Max Ramirez.
Rays: Acquired Rafael Soriano from the Braves for reliever Jesse Chavez.
Red Sox: Acquired Boof Bonser from the Twins for a PTBNL or cash.
Royals: Released Mike Jacobs and pitcher John Bale
Tigers: Designated pitcher Freddy Dolsi and catcher Dusty Ryan for assignment.

Two former Brewers continue to search for work, and for once I'd rather have Jay Gibbons. Jason Kendall has received a two-year offer from the Royals, while Gibbons is drawing interest from the Dodgers.

While some players are looking for new teams. J.J. Hardy is busy making friends with his. He recently played in Harmon Killebrew's golf tournament, and the Hall of Famer had some nice things to say about him.

Easily the biggest trade at the meetings so far has been the three way deal involving the Tigers, Yankees and D-Backs. A lot of people are burying Arizona for giving up on Max Scherzer, but Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts and I agree: The Diamondbacks might come out ahead in this deal, trading a pitcher with an unsure future for two that might pitch in their rotation this season. Meanwhile, no one seems to mention that the Yankees traded two starters and a center fielder for one player.

Ever wonder what folks in minor league front offices do during the offseason? I don't know, but the Timber Rattlers' premiere episode of The Offseason would suggest they have some time on their hands.

With Jason Kendall gone, I guess we probably won't be talking about plunkings as much, and that's probably ok. With that said, Jeremy Greenhouse of The Baseball Analysts has a look at the probability of getting hit by a pitch, and what matchups and velocities make a batter most likely to get plunked.

It's been a pretty busy week at the Winter Meetings, and the flow of information has been dizzying at times. Just imagine how fast information would flow out if the internet was working.

Still looking for a gift for someone this holiday season? I might have a suggestion for you. Boys of Summer is a documentary chronicling Robert Cochrane and his father's summer long road trip to visit all 30 major league parks. The film is now available on DVD for the first time, with all proceeds going to the Michael J. Fox Foundation to help support research on Parkinson's Disease.

On this day in 1986, the Brewers sent Tim Crews and Tim Leary to the Dodgers for first baseman Greg Brock. Brock would go on to hit .261/.348/.387 over five seasons as a Brewer.

Happy birthday today to Doug Henry, who turns 46. Henry pitched the first four seasons of his major league career (1991-1994) as a Brewer, racking up 61 saves.

Drink up.

MLB Trade Rumors: Rafael Soriano and Brandon Lyon= 2010 Closers?

raygu — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:00:30 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

3 days ago: FILE - In this March 15, 2009, file photo, Atlanta Braves pitcher Rafael Soriano throws to a Houston Astros batter during a spring training baseball game in Kissimmee, Fla. Soriano made a surprise decision a on Monday, Dec. 7, 2009, to accept salary arbitration. The Braves last week signed closer Billy Wagner and setup man Takashi Saito. The expectation was Soriano and Mike Gonzalez would decline salary arbitration offers and become free agents. Instead, Soriano is still with Braves and can't be traded prior to June 16 without his consent. (AP Photo/Rob Carr, File)

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Well, it appears the Rays and Astros have new closers for 2010. The Rays have traded reliever Jesse Chavez to the Braves for closer Rafael Soriano.

In addition, the Astros have signed Tigers reliever Brandon Lyon, after closer Jose Valverde elected to decline arbitration and losing out on signing LaTroy Hawkins. They also traded some prospects to the Marlins for Matt Lindstrom. I presume that Lyon will be the Astros closer in 2010 as he signed a 3-year $15 million deal with the 'Stros. But, I would draft Lindstrom as well, as Lyon is not the most consistent closer. Then again, Lindstrom's 2009 season was downright terrible.

Lindstrom saved 15 games in 2009, with an ERA of 5.89 and a WHIP of 1.64. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.64, walking 4.5 batters per 9 innings, and an extremely low LOB% OF 62%. Lyon, on the other hand, had a very solid 2009 season going 6-5 with 3 saves, a 2.86 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.

Lyon has never been a big strikeout pitcher as he had a 6.5 K/9 ratio, and a 3.5 BB/9 ratio. What worries me about Lyon is he had a extremely low BABIP of .229 and an extremely high LOB% of 80%. Should these ratios regress to his career averages of .305 BABIP and 71% LOB, his ERA and WHIP will suffer, and the blown saves will accumulate. Remember he lost his closer job in 2008 with the Diamondbacks by blowing several saves late in the season as the DBacks were battling for the NL West division title.

But the big question is, where is elsewhere for Valverde and Mike Gonzalez? In the National League, there are few choices-maybe the Phillies, or the Marlins if they want an upgrade at closer, or the Nationals, but they have prospect Drew Storen who is close to ready.

Poll

Can Brandon Lyon duplicate his 2009 season with the Astros in 2010?

Brandon Lyon Nears Deal With Astros, Bullpen Options Dwindling

Eric Simon — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 11:00:26 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

"Whoo Bessy. $15 million smackeroos!" (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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There goes another semi-attractive free agent pitcher, as Brandon Lyon is apparently close to signing a three-year deal with the Astros worth $15 million. It's way too much money for Lyon, a competent reliever who is effective against both lefties and righties. Lyon's upside is probably about a win above replacement, and while he'll nicely fill the hole left by the departing LaTroy Hawkins, $5 million a year is just crazy. Then again, Hawkins just signed a two-year deal with the similarly-daft Brewers worth $7.5 million, so I guess madness can only be measured relatively.

This is all good news for Mike Gonzalez, who is a much better pitcher than either Lyon or Hawkins -- and is a lefty to boot -- though his injury history is more troubling than the other two. Gonzalez's agent -- a Mr. Scott Boras -- will doubtless be using Lyon's deal with Houston as a jumping-off point in negotiations with other clubs. I don't know that the Mets are in the market for a big-ticket reliever, though I certainly don't care to see them spend $18 million over three years for Gonzalez plus forfeit a high draft pick to Atlanta in the process. Payback for Tom Glavine's defection two years ago, to be sure.

The two best free agent relievers -- Rafaels Soriano and Betancourt -- both accepted their former clubs' offers of salary arbitration, so consider them off the market for now. The Braves are fielding offers on Soriano, who has given the team permission to trade him, but don't expect him to end up on the Mets. Soriano made $6.1 million and could see a bump to $9 million or more in 2010. That's a lot of money, though the cost is mitigated somewhat by the fact that it would only be a one-year deal and that Soriano, if healthy, is a safe bet to be a Type-A free agent again next year. I'm not sure Atlanta would even consider trading him to New York, though it may be a moot point anyway as it looks like he's on his way to Tampa Bay.

Kiko Calero is the most attractive free agent reliever still available, and his price tag comes without the added encumbrance of draft pick compensation, which is not something you can say about Jose Valverde. Beyond those two you've got the likes of Russ Springer, J.J. Putz, and Chan Ho Park, the latter of which might actually be the most appealing of the three. At all events, the list of available -- and moderately attractive -- free agent relievers is now rail-thin, so anyone in the market for one should act fast or risk winding up with Luis Ayala et al.

Ed Wade gets his relievers, but what did the Astros get?

DyingQuail — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:41:22 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Congrats man, you're average in every way, but you just got paid.

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So an hour or so ago I said that I would have to wait until tomorrow to process the day's events, but I lied. A solid hour of tossing and turning while visions of mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers danced in my head lead me back to my laptop. Mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers, that's kind of what we got today. Not so much in Lindstrom, but definitely in Lyon. Now I can't help but think Dave Cameron is being a little hyperbolic in his assessment of Brandon Lyon, but everything he says is correct. Lyon isn't good. Period.

He's average in every respect. Compare him to anyone else already in the Astros bullpen and you'd lose him in the haze of mediocre total-skill sets. Alberto Arias and Chris Sampson have high ground ball percentages. Jeff Fulchino is just a clydesdale that is dependable. Matt Lindstrom has life his is stuff that portends to better things to come. Sammy Gervacio has an awesome delivery that gives him difficult to distinguish stuff. Brandon Lyon literally is average in every respect. Pick a stat or a trait. Look at it. It'll be average.

Lyon will definitely go down as a not good signing. Will it ever be a signing that's cited more than two years after the contract is completed? No. Carlos Lee was a bad signing, so was Barry Zito. Lyon is just a poor signing—for the Astros. If any other team inked Lyon to this deal, it probably wouldn't resonate as much as it does right now. There's the Ed Wade loves relief pitching too much factor. There's the luck inflated ERA factor (thank God they're upgrading defense a SS, we think). And there's the this team doesn't have the payroll flexibility to afford this factor. Those three factors make this signing laughable to outsiders and repugnant to Astros fans.

But I don't think it's bad because of in 2011 and 2012, just 2010. We never had enough money to start with this winter. Ed Wade had just made a pretty savvy little trade with the Florida Marlins to bring in someone who would add depth to a bullpen that didn't need a closer because the Astros won't be good enough to justify needing a true closer, much less over paying for one (which they didn't even end up doing).

Really, he could have just stopped there. I would have continued to actually be content and happy with the state of this team for at least a few hours. And then the malaise of being an Astros fan could have set back in when I realized I was happy not because my team had gotten better, but because my team didn't do anything to make themselves measurably worse off.

But now it appears as though they have.

Can we afford Miguel Tejada back? Nope. Can we—realistically—afford a worthwhile fill in at 3B? Probably not. At this point, offering LaTroy Hawkins arbitration has never looked so good to me.

Now, I'm left wondering the following questions: Why did we have to move so fast to sign a relief pitcher who could be a closer? There were still options out there; we didn't really even need someone else (i.e. another closer-esque reliever is a luxury, not a necessity). Why move so fast on Lyon and offer him everything he wanted? Why not try to whittle him down in price or years (preferably price, but only scantly)? What will Ed Wade use to justify Lyon versus someone with promise and an ability to add worthwhile value to the team...like say Mike Gonzalez?

(Please don't let it be his 2009 ERA, please, please, please, please don't. I won't be able to take it. Something of mine will break after I hurl it against something if I awake to an Ed Wade quote about Lyon's ERA.)

For a brief moment it felt like the Astros had faced the reality of their situation: they have to stop pretending they are contenders. Lindstrom was a savvy trade to provide a cost-controlled insurance for the backend of the bullpen for the next few years. It allowed us wiggle room to try and fill in other gaps that could actually have placed us in the faint pale of the glow of contenders. After that trade I smiled because I was proud of Ed Wade. He'd made a move that was exactly what this team needed.

But now, with Lyon inked for too much, we're hamstrung. It's like Ed Wade is waiving the white flag on finding help at 3B or SP and figured he'd roll the dice on Lyon and see what happened. It's ilke he's forgotten that things like signing Joel Pinero late in the game can make the a huge difference, if you have the money to do it at the time. Or he's forgotten about all the players who signed late in the ball game at just about every position last year, too.

If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. But for the Astros—especially after the Lindstrom trade—Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?

To answer this post's title: The Astros got nothing the needed, just something a few in the front office might have wanted. Now they're left wanting things that can't afford. So, I guess they got screwed hamstrung. There's really nothing about Lyon's signing that can bring cause to justify it. There was a lot in the Lindstrom trade, but that's been buried under the mountain of inanity that is three years and fifteen million dollars for Lyon.

Of course, we also have yet to hear the final word on Lyon's deal. So maybe myself, Dave Cameron, and just about every baseball person I follow on Twitter will be eating crow tomorrow...or so I can hope.

Fast Eddy keeps going: Astros ink Brandon Lyon

DyingQuail — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:26:52 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

I just got signed?!

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[UPDATE] I think Zach Levine has it best at trying to find a silver lining:

Brandon Lyon had a very strong 2009 overall but walk rate skyrocketed. Could be an AL thing, though. -Z

At the end of the day (quite literally at 11:30PM) this feels like a classic Ed Wade move, but just not one that seems like it'll really ever come back to bite us too hard. Will he catch a lot of flack for it yes. Could it prove to be a decent enough signing in hindsight? It could. He's proved the pundits (myself included) wrong many times.

It's been a long day, with a lot to digest. Maybe tomorrow I finally have gained my bearings on today's transactions. Can you get a hot stove hangover?

[UPDATE] Rosenthal has the deal at $15 million over three years. The section I've added at the end about cost-effective now has to be amended. I don't know why Ed Wade overpaid for Lyon's services. He could have just gone an extra year on LaTroy Hawkins and come out top. Mike Gonzalez is still on the market and would have been a better fit (I'm just bitter the Gonzalez deal didn't come to fruition in the end, I guess). Yes, Lyon is only thirty, but it's not like he's got a closer's repertoire.

But, because there always is one, it's not like Lyon will kill us at this price, so I think my points below still kind of apply (just lessen my adulation of Wade and sort of turn my overall feeling back to relative indifference).

[UPDATE] Apparently FOX 26 is way ahead of the curve on this one. They have it as a three year deal. This deal is edging closer to getting a big thumbs down.

This one has come kind out of left field. There was literally no news of this until FOX 26 popped up in my RSS feed (those things are like the dinosaurs now). There's no news yet on the amount or years, but it has been confirmed that we have reached an agreement with Brandon Lyon. The deal is, of course, pending a physical.

Lyon is actually rated as highly as Jose Valverde is by CHONE. Not that means too terribly much. Lyon posted a 4.06FIP/4.24xFIP in 2009. He is pegged by Bill James to post a 3.88 FIP in 2010. Last year he struggled with his control (1.84 K:BB) after having a career year in that department in 2008 (3.38 K:BB); but Bill James has him as posting a 2.11 K:BB and CHONE foresees a 2.23 K:BB; he also has a career GB% of 42.5%. He's not exactly your protypical closer, but he definitely fits the mold of what Wade was looking for: someone who closed out baseball games before.

At the very least, this deal gives us competition for who takes the ball in the ninth inning during spring training, and gives us a plethora of fringe closer-candidates to eventually develop into a strong enough back end of the rotation.

Costs will be the key for this deal, but I imagine Lyon couldn't have raked in too much. More to come when the amounts and years are released.

********

I still don't know the dollar amounts on this, but if it's cost effective, I have to give Wade credit for today. The Matt Lindstrom trade didn't really force the Astros to give up anything that they couldn't live without, and I have to imagine that Lyon, even at three years, will provide reasonably costs service during that period of time. So that's two relievers for three years, all at a reasonable price. Even when Arias, Sampson, and Fulchino start qualifying for arbitration, the bullpen will not be the expense that hamstrings us.

In all, I think I have to say I'm pleased with the gambit of Wade's. He's positioning us nicely for the clubs—hopeful—turnover in 2012-2013. There seems to be some real foresight into today's moves. Nothing flashy, but definitely serviceable. We'll be a bullpen of Honda Civics, but that's not a bad thing to be in our current state as franchise.

SB Nation - Brandon Lyon

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Fast Eddy keeps going: Astros ink Brandon Lyon