SB Nation - Jose Valverde

Monday Morning Post-Meetings Link Fest

davoag — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Billy Smith II - AP

New Brandon Lyon puts on a 15 million dollar jersey. Prices at the team store sure have gone up!

Have we all recovered? That was a hectic week as the Astros wheeled and dealed in Indianapolis. Houston came away with two relievers and a shiny new third baseman, while losing two prospects in trade and two more in the Rule V draft. Kudos to every contributor on TCB for covering all those moves during the Winter Meetings with both timeliness and depth of analysis. We all certainly have much to discuss between now and February when pitchers and catchers report. Until then, here's all the links fit to print from the past few days:

I know lots of stuff happened, but does baseball need the winter meetings? Dejan Kovasevic doesn't think so.
If you missed clack's excellent breakdown on the newest Astro Pedro Feliz and what to expect from him offensively, here it is. Look for some more analysis about Brandon Lyon from a Pitch f/x perspective later this week.
One of the biggest announcements out of Indy was that Peter Gammons is leaving ESPN for MLB Network and MLB.com. This is good news for all of us since keeping one of the best in the business around has to be a top priority. Whenever I write a story/column like this (roundup-style), I think about how Gammons pretty much invented it. Now that's influence. His final column is definitely worth reading.
Saturday was the deadline to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Houston offered contracts to all their eligible guys, but that was not the case with all the teams around the league. In fact, the Matt Capps-Pittsburgh saga turned out to be the most compelling storyline of the night. There was a long list of interesting guys that were released Saturday and Tim Dierkes over at MLBTradeRumors.com runs them down here.
Of course, the Astros have no need of a guy like Garrett Atkins anymore, but Ryan Church is available and needed on this roster. Another interesting guy is Ryan Garko, who is listed as a first baseman, but did play 12 games in the outfield last season and could be a good lefty matchup guy off the bench. Two of the guys on that list were re-signed by the Indians, so that list could dwindle quickly.
Here is an updated version of the 2010 Draft Order. Go ahead and bookmark this page, since it will be updated as more guys sign.
One bad sign for the Astros' 2010 draft hopes is this report from the Boston Globe implying that Jose Valverde may have priced himself out of the market. I am aghast that his agent thinks he can get 12-13 million for Valverde, or that Fernando Rodney asked for 30m over three years from the Astros. If you were incredulous after the Lyon signing, can you imagine the apoplectic shock if Rodney signed for that much? Sheesh.
FanGraphs' Dave Cameron on the marginal value of a win. The article is ostensibly about the Rays trading and paying Rafael Soriano, but Cameron name-drops the Astros to illustrate how silly it is to overpay for wins in their situation.
Another excellent read for anyone who is on this esteemed website. Print this out and refer to it every time you read an article on here. Especially mine, since I'm often wrong, as my wife always reminds me.
Did you ever want to ask Brad Mills five questions about the upcoming season? Well, hopefully they were these five questions. If not, you may or may not be out of luck.
The Harvard boys bring it again, breaking down the payroll efficiency of major league teams in 2009. Of course, the Astros fall into that bottom 15 category and really don't get a lot out of wins out of their large payroll. This isn't because they don't spend money, it's because they spend their money the wrong way (re: Lee, Carlos and Matsui, Kazuo).
Here's a roundup of the local bloggers and storymongers, as Brian McTaggart weighs in on what the 2010 roster could look like. Alyson Footer talks about many doings around the team, including Milo Hamilton winning yet another award. The picture Astros County had up the other day with Milo in a crown was priceless. Richie Justice likes the Feliz signing, but thinks the team will still give Chris Johnson a shot at the everyday job. I know the organization has high hopes for him, but I wish the local guys would stop touting Johnson. He's never shown good power, has a history of injuries and didn't hit much at Round Rock. Why should this guy get a shot at the starting job with the big league club? I'd rather see Mark Saccomanno there than Johnson.
Farmstros does a good job breaking down the Astros prospective Rule V selections next season. Jose Altuve is a really interesting addition to that list, since he had an excellent season in 2009, but hasn't played past Low A ball yet.
I wonder what Houston offers on the post-game buffet? Really, though, can these players be expected to give up full-sized candy bars? Where are we living, Communist Russia?
Finally, a little tidbit from Buster Olney's latest blog post sent me to this really neat website run by former MLB catcher Brent Mayne. The Art of Catching provides tips and tricks on playing one of the hardest to define defensive positions on the field. This is why I like being a baseball fan.

Fantasy Baseball: Profiling Yesterday's Non-Tenders

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Yesterday was the last day that teams could offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and there were some interesting non-tenders for sure. Let's take a look:

Matt Capp, CL, PITT

The Pirates will now go into spring training looking for a closer, unless they veer off course and sign a free agent like Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, or Kevin Gregg. They also could dangle Andy Laroche in a deal for a closer since they traded for Akinori Iwamura to play second base. That assumes that Pedro Alvarez wins the Pirates 3B job out of spring training, otherwise Laroche will be the Pirates 3Bman. Here is what MLB.com said about the Pirates closer situation:

In the meantime, the Pirates now have even more work to do to construct a bullpen that had already lost Jesse Chavez in an offseason trade. One thing the Pirates do seem confident in, though, is that their next closer could come in-house, as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are likely to garner consideration for the role.

I don't see either Hanrahan or Meek keeping the job. Capps Is coming off his worst year of his career as he ended the year with a 5.80 ERA. Could the Phillies take a chance on Capps to backup Lidge?

Jonny Gomes, OF, CIN

Gomes is coming off a season where he went 20-51-.267-.338-.541-.879. Gomes could be a nice pickup for a team that wants to platoon his vs. left-handed pitchers as he hit .307-.369-.545-.914 against lefties in 2009. In his career, Gomes has hit .274-.369-.517-.885 vs lefties.

it appears the Reds will go into spring training with an open competition in LF with Wladimir Balentein, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier vying for the spot.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL

Johnson is coming off a down year where he lost the second base job to Martin Prado in Atlanta. He went 8-29-7-.229-.303-.389-.692 in 2009 after going 12-69-11-.287-.349-.446-.795 in 2008. Johnson's BABIP in 2009 was a very low .247, much lower than his career BABIP average of .311. There were some positives in his 2009 season, as he lowered his K% from 18.4% to 15.6% and increased his BB% from 8.5% to 9.3%.

Johnson could be a nice sleeper in 2009 should he land a second base job. If he can bring his BABIP close to .300 and continue to show improved plate discipline, he could have another season like he did in 2008. Do you hear me Ned?

Poll

Which player has a better chance at landing a starting job in 2010?

Cubs Historic Photos: Second In A Series

Al — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 14:00:17 -0000

Click on photo to open a larger version in a new browser window

The date that was attached to this photo when originally sent to me would have solved a mystery of history, if true. It was tagged by the photographer "June 6, 1969". On that date the Cubs beat the Reds 14-8.

But Ron Santo's heel clicks after victories, according to research I did for "Cubs By The Numbers" (shameless promotion: "Cubs By The Numbers" makes a great and inexpensive holiday gift for your favorite Cubs fan!), didn't begin until the last week of June. Go past the jump to find out the actual date of this heel click.

Divisional play began in 1969, and although the Reds were and are in the Eastern time zone, east of Chicago, they wound up in the NL West. Apparently, the presence of the Braves and Reds in the NL West was due to the influence of the Cubs; the Cubs wanted to be in the same division with the Cardinals but neither wanted to be in the West, where they'd have many more late-night TV dates. So the Cubs used their pull to push Atlanta and Cincinnati to the West, where they would stay till realignment in 1994.

Anyway, that meant that the Reds only traveled to Wrigley Field twice in 1969 and the Cubs only beat them twice in seven games (should have been only six, but the June 7 game was delayed by rain and then halted for darkness in a 5-5 tie and replayed). The photo was definitely part of a set taken in a game vs. the Reds; the temperature on June 6 was only 60 degrees, so Santo wouldn't have been wearing short sleeves that day.

Thus, this is the heel-click after a 3-1 win over the Reds on August 28, 1969. Incidentally, that was also the day that the 40-year-old team attendance record was broken with the crowd of 29,092, bringing the season total to 1,502,222 (it would later finish at 1,674,993; that record stood until 1984).

In an era with curtain calls, Jose Valverde acts and outfielder bumps after wins, those of you in your 20's or 30's might wonder what the fuss was over Santo's heel clicks. It was a different time. Players just didn't do that "in your face" kind of thing in 1969 -- it was widely panned by broadcasters, writers and fellow players, and Santo became one of the most disliked opponents around the National League. It may, even to this day, be one of the factors keeping him out of the Hall of Fame.

It was innocent. Santo was just happy with winning. If he only knew what was to come after that August 28 game, he might not have done it at all, and the heel clicks disappeared after 1969.

Once again, if you'd like a print of this photo, email Leo Bauby for ordering information.

Brandon Lyon Nears Deal With Astros, Bullpen Options Dwindling

Eric Simon — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 11:00:26 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

"Whoo Bessy. $15 million smackeroos!" (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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There goes another semi-attractive free agent pitcher, as Brandon Lyon is apparently close to signing a three-year deal with the Astros worth $15 million. It's way too much money for Lyon, a competent reliever who is effective against both lefties and righties. Lyon's upside is probably about a win above replacement, and while he'll nicely fill the hole left by the departing LaTroy Hawkins, $5 million a year is just crazy. Then again, Hawkins just signed a two-year deal with the similarly-daft Brewers worth $7.5 million, so I guess madness can only be measured relatively.

This is all good news for Mike Gonzalez, who is a much better pitcher than either Lyon or Hawkins -- and is a lefty to boot -- though his injury history is more troubling than the other two. Gonzalez's agent -- a Mr. Scott Boras -- will doubtless be using Lyon's deal with Houston as a jumping-off point in negotiations with other clubs. I don't know that the Mets are in the market for a big-ticket reliever, though I certainly don't care to see them spend $18 million over three years for Gonzalez plus forfeit a high draft pick to Atlanta in the process. Payback for Tom Glavine's defection two years ago, to be sure.

The two best free agent relievers -- Rafaels Soriano and Betancourt -- both accepted their former clubs' offers of salary arbitration, so consider them off the market for now. The Braves are fielding offers on Soriano, who has given the team permission to trade him, but don't expect him to end up on the Mets. Soriano made $6.1 million and could see a bump to $9 million or more in 2010. That's a lot of money, though the cost is mitigated somewhat by the fact that it would only be a one-year deal and that Soriano, if healthy, is a safe bet to be a Type-A free agent again next year. I'm not sure Atlanta would even consider trading him to New York, though it may be a moot point anyway as it looks like he's on his way to Tampa Bay.

Kiko Calero is the most attractive free agent reliever still available, and his price tag comes without the added encumbrance of draft pick compensation, which is not something you can say about Jose Valverde. Beyond those two you've got the likes of Russ Springer, J.J. Putz, and Chan Ho Park, the latter of which might actually be the most appealing of the three. At all events, the list of available -- and moderately attractive -- free agent relievers is now rail-thin, so anyone in the market for one should act fast or risk winding up with Luis Ayala et al.

Fast Eddy keeps going: Astros ink Brandon Lyon

DyingQuail — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:26:52 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

I just got signed?!

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[UPDATE] I think Zach Levine has it best at trying to find a silver lining:

Brandon Lyon had a very strong 2009 overall but walk rate skyrocketed. Could be an AL thing, though. -Z

At the end of the day (quite literally at 11:30PM) this feels like a classic Ed Wade move, but just not one that seems like it'll really ever come back to bite us too hard. Will he catch a lot of flack for it yes. Could it prove to be a decent enough signing in hindsight? It could. He's proved the pundits (myself included) wrong many times.

It's been a long day, with a lot to digest. Maybe tomorrow I finally have gained my bearings on today's transactions. Can you get a hot stove hangover?

[UPDATE] Rosenthal has the deal at $15 million over three years. The section I've added at the end about cost-effective now has to be amended. I don't know why Ed Wade overpaid for Lyon's services. He could have just gone an extra year on LaTroy Hawkins and come out top. Mike Gonzalez is still on the market and would have been a better fit (I'm just bitter the Gonzalez deal didn't come to fruition in the end, I guess). Yes, Lyon is only thirty, but it's not like he's got a closer's repertoire.

But, because there always is one, it's not like Lyon will kill us at this price, so I think my points below still kind of apply (just lessen my adulation of Wade and sort of turn my overall feeling back to relative indifference).

[UPDATE] Apparently FOX 26 is way ahead of the curve on this one. They have it as a three year deal. This deal is edging closer to getting a big thumbs down.

This one has come kind out of left field. There was literally no news of this until FOX 26 popped up in my RSS feed (those things are like the dinosaurs now). There's no news yet on the amount or years, but it has been confirmed that we have reached an agreement with Brandon Lyon. The deal is, of course, pending a physical.

Lyon is actually rated as highly as Jose Valverde is by CHONE. Not that means too terribly much. Lyon posted a 4.06FIP/4.24xFIP in 2009. He is pegged by Bill James to post a 3.88 FIP in 2010. Last year he struggled with his control (1.84 K:BB) after having a career year in that department in 2008 (3.38 K:BB); but Bill James has him as posting a 2.11 K:BB and CHONE foresees a 2.23 K:BB; he also has a career GB% of 42.5%. He's not exactly your protypical closer, but he definitely fits the mold of what Wade was looking for: someone who closed out baseball games before.

At the very least, this deal gives us competition for who takes the ball in the ninth inning during spring training, and gives us a plethora of fringe closer-candidates to eventually develop into a strong enough back end of the rotation.

Costs will be the key for this deal, but I imagine Lyon couldn't have raked in too much. More to come when the amounts and years are released.

********

I still don't know the dollar amounts on this, but if it's cost effective, I have to give Wade credit for today. The Matt Lindstrom trade didn't really force the Astros to give up anything that they couldn't live without, and I have to imagine that Lyon, even at three years, will provide reasonably costs service during that period of time. So that's two relievers for three years, all at a reasonable price. Even when Arias, Sampson, and Fulchino start qualifying for arbitration, the bullpen will not be the expense that hamstrings us.

In all, I think I have to say I'm pleased with the gambit of Wade's. He's positioning us nicely for the clubs—hopeful—turnover in 2012-2013. There seems to be some real foresight into today's moves. Nothing flashy, but definitely serviceable. We'll be a bullpen of Honda Civics, but that's not a bad thing to be in our current state as franchise.

Let's Talk Lindstrom, The Newest Astro

davoag — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:29:23 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

This is your newest Astros closer, Matt Lindstrom. Make him feel welcome.

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Okay, I know you've heard about the trade that sent Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for right-handed starter Robert Bono, shortstop Luis Bryan and a player to be named later. It's not exactly the deal you were looking for after Houston lost both Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins in the past three days. Both of those guys are considerable upgrades over Lindstrom. Let me try and make you feel a little better about this trade.

For starters, let's look at his contract. Lindstrom will be under club control for another three seasons. Granted, those are three seasons of arbitration, but they shouldn't have to spend more than 15 million at the most over those three seasons. He'll probably get 2 million in arbitration for next year.

If anything, this makes Lindstrom more attractive than anyone else on the trade market. Who else were the Astros going to get for three years at controlled money? None of the free agents were going to sign for that little over that many years, nor would the Astros want to commit to any of them for that long.

Now, there's the little problem of Lindstrom's performance. He wasn't very good last season. At all. There is a great breakdown of Lindstrom's season performance here. Yes, he was unlucky, but he also didn't strand enough runners. His performance suggests he'll be a good closer, but probably not great. Over a full season, his Bill James projections show him with 26 saves, three losses and a 44/25 K/BB ratio. Not the best projection in the world, but it's workable.

What about this possibility? Chai-jen Lo starts the season as a late-inning reliever, pairing with Fulchino until he's used to pitching in high level situations in the majors. Then, if Lindstrom is struggling, they slot Lo into the closer's role and move Lindstrom into the eighth inning. Both Arias and Fulchino are also possibilities here, but Lo probably has the biggest upside of the three.

The other thing to consider is which prospects the Astros gave up to get Lindstrom:

Robert Bono, RHP — Bono is a 20-year old who was drafted out of high school as a catcher. He converted to pitching and has had a nice little career to this point. He's a nice prospect but isn't exciting. He does seem to have excellent control, but there is no evidence he's a hard thrower or can strike out enough people to be successful at higher levels. Remember, the South Atlantic League favored pitchers more than a little last season. Out of the five starters at Lexington (Lyles, Seaton, Dydalewicz, Greenwalt, Bono), he probably had the fourth-best upside. Plus, the Astros like righty David Duncan, who will probably slot into Bono's rotation spot at Corpus Christi.

Luis Bryan, SS — The 19-year old middle infielder made quite a few of Farmstros weekly best lists last season. He has one glaring hole in that he doesn't walk, at all. In 283 career plate appearances, Bryan walked 11 times and none last season with the GCL Astros. He is exactly the kind of player the Astros should be trading away for a guy like Lindstrom.

I completely agree with Baseball America's Ben Badler that neither of these guys could have been in the Astros Top 30 prospects next season. Since the PTBNL is actually the Astros top selection in the Rule V draft, this is a very easy trade to make and probably one of the reasons it came together so quickly.

There, did it work? Do you feel a little better about this deal? Well, good, that's what The Crawfish Boxes is here for. Just know that I don't like this any more than you do (especially since Wade apparently wants to trade for ANOTHER closer). I'm just putting on a brave face and soldiering on like a good fan. How about we pick out Lindstrom's entrance music? Wouldn't that be fun?

Astros Winter Meeting, Day Three: Links, Thoughts and Idle Speculation

davoag — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:54:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Unless you have this man closing games for you, do you need a big-name closer? And yes, I was referring to Yogi...

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Look, I'm all for conventional wisdom. There is usually a reason it's conventional; it's worked for years and years. It's what people do. In baseball, it's what teams do to win. I don't mock all conventional wisdom in baseball. Some of it is very sound. One thing I can't figure out, however, is why this one fact has become so crucial to a team's offseason goals. Why do the Astros 'need' to find a closer this winter? Just because they lost their closer from last season?

Let's consider last season*. How many teams went into the 2009 season with unsettled or unproven closers? That would be 11. Here's the complete list, followed by some quick thoughts on the situations.

*This isn't the most scientific study, since I'm looking just at teams from 2009 and not expanding the data range past that. I acknowledge that. Let's move past it.

Tampa Bay (84-78) Had Percival ostensibly as closer, but pitched 10 innings in 2009 and was not used as closer much early. Still had six saves, but so did five other members of bullpen.
Toronto (75-87) Knew BJ Ryan would be back at some point, never signed anyone as replacement.
Detroit (86-77) Had a group of a couple players, sorted itself out during the season.
Seattle (85-77) Found David Aardsma off junk pile.
Oakland (75-87) Went with all-kids, Andrew Bailey emerged as closer
Florida (87-75) Went with unproven kid in Matt Lindstrom, moved to Leo Nunez halfway through season.
Washington (59-103) Went with Mike McDougal, had okay season.
St. Louis (91-71) Found Ryan Franklin after going through motions with several others
LA Dodgers (95-67) Broxton saved some games at end of 2008, but still unknown entity going into 2009
San Diego (75-87) Entered season with Heath Bell as closer, no prior experience
Arizona (70-92) Let Brandon Lyon walk,used Qualls as new closer
Atlanta (86-76) Traded for Soriano, but also had Mike Gonzalez

Obviously, there were some teams that were going to be bad no matter what. They'd made the decision to rebuild and thus, didn't invest heavily in a closer. Those teams (Washington, Oakland, San Diego) finished with losing records. The Padres found Heath Bell could be a successful closer and the A's had the same thing happen with Andrew Bailey.

The rest of the teams? 7 of the 11 had winning records. There are numerous examples of teams being killed by not having a late-inning guy. That's the 2008 Mets excuse, anyway (forcing them to spend ungodly amounts of money on JJ Putz and K-Rod). I think, however, that a large majority of teams don't necessarily need to focus on getting a closer as part of their success. Finding good players and putting them in the bullpen will work itself out. Why spend the money on a luxury item when you can win without one?

Maybe this is all rationalization since the Brewers are going to swoop in and sign both LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf in the same day. I really believe that the Astros success in 2010 won't hinge on who pitches the ninth inning. Houston will be an average-to-below average team no matter who the closer is.

Onto the links:

Add the Cardinals to the list of Miguel Tejada suitors. Well, maybe not...it's just that Tony LaRussa likes him. Which he revealed for the sole purpose of driving me crazy. Would St. Louis play Tejada at shortstop or third base?
Could the Tigers end up being Jose Valverde's landing spot? The Granderson/Jackson deal saved them about 10-12 million dollars, depending on how much Jackson gets in arbitration. That puts them in perfect position to pick up a player like Valverde for the back end of the bullpen. It would also give the Astros the 19th pick in the 2010 draft. Apparently, the Nationals had interest but pulled back due to his cost. Did Valverde's agent overestimate his market?
Here's a nice defense of the Pudge Rodriguez signing. While I agree the human aspect of baseball decisions is often minimized by everyone, this seems a bit much. For one, it was widely reported when Pudge joined the Astros that he really doesn't prepare for the mental side of the game very well and is mostly concerned with hitting. Sure, he may provide moral support out there on the mound, but don't look for him to tell Strasberg what kind of pitches this guy doesn't want to see.Aaron Gleeman seems to agree with me, too.
I don't know what's more disturbing; that the White Sox could beat us out for Putz's services (and that that would be considered a bad thing) or that Matt Thornton uses the term 'bromance.' I have nothing more to say.
One of the better Twitter feeds during the Winter Meetings has been Will Carroll's. The Baseball Prospectus writer was profiled by his hometown newspaper and has apparently been one of the stars of the Indianapolis show. As someone who purchased his Carroll Guide to Sports Injuries, just so I could sound smart when I talk about Lis Franc-type injuries, I am very appreciative he's in the business.
Finally, here's a little prospect talk for those minor league nuts in the audience:
Some data on player speeds out of the box in the Arizona Fall League. The guys at Project Prospect only timed Castro twice and he fell into the below-average category, but he may have suffered the same fate as Buster Posey: fatigue. From what I'd heard to that point, Castro should have average speed in the majors.
We were recently contact by a site with some great prospect video (though it is a pay site). One of the profiles is on Henry Villar. Some very good video here with lots of pitches thrown. I didn't see any closeups from the side to tell how his arm mechanics looked, but could see some other things. His delivery is relatively smooth, but the fact he falls off to the first base side so heavily means it might not be as repeatable as you'd like. He's also not in great fielding position when he finishes. His arm slot doesn't look to put too much stress on his delivery and for a hard thrower, he certainly has a free-and-easy motion. Not too many warning signs for injury down the road.
Here's a video of Ross Seaton. I have to say, this was pretty encouraging. While Seaton did struggle with command issues in this particular start, it was a TON of video on his delivery. I can see why scouts would like him; Seaton has a very smooth delivery throughout. He lands in a balanced position, it's not too violent of an arm motion. His arm slot seems comfortable, though he does tend to miss the same slot sometimes. His elbow does not seem to fly forward before the ball and he seems perfectly balanced to field after the play. In fact, the end of his delivery reminds me a little of Greg Maddux. Now, he definitely didn't show Maddux-like control, but if his effortless delivery can really bring 92-93 MPH heat? He's a lot more interesting. Here's my end of the season scouting effort on Seaton, based on his numbers.
There's also video of Jordan Lyles on Baseball Intellect, but I won't bore you any more with prospect talk. At first blush, it's some of the longest video I've seen on prospects and a good source for first-hand scouting reports.

The New Astros Game Plan

davoag — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:55:18 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Hawk and Puma...the perfect 80's detective show!

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With Jose Valverde's decision to decline arbitration with the Astros, that leaves them with an upper limit of 15 million to spend this offseason. Of course these comments related to Jose de Jesus Ortiz for the Houston Chronicle make it seem like accepting arbitration was never an option:

"Houston had a chance," [Valverde] said. "Another arbitration wasn't for me. If they want to win with young players, that's good. But a team like that has to invest to win. The GM said he wanted me, but if he really wanted me, he would have offered something. He never offered me any type of offer or anything. They had a chance to make an offer, and they never made it. It was always, ‘Well talk tomorrow.' Then when the time ended for the first offer, they said we'd talk later. They never, never made me an offer."

So let me get this straight, the Astros had no intentions of of re-signing Valverde and they offered him arbitration. They wanted Hawkins back, so they didn't offer him arbitration. At what point did arbitration become such a sign of bad faith in negotiations. I thought it was about getting compensation for losing free agents. Silly me.

At any rate, with that 15 million, Houston GM Ed Wade will set out to fill these main positions of need: closer, offense, eighth inning reliever, bench.

What's that mean for the rest of the winter? Look for the Astros to check in on these kinds of players:

LaTroy Hawkins will be re-signed, maybe as early as today, for about 5 million. I'd like it to be a one-year deal, but wouldn't rule out his agent pushing for an additional year. 2009 Cost: 5 million
The Astros will also make a push to bring back Miguel Tejada now. He will provide both offense and another option at third base for new manager Brad Mills. This probably won't happen until January, since Tejada wants a long-term deal. 2009 Cost: 4 million
Look for them to also pursue a guy like JJ Putz or newly-released Boof Bonser as a possible late inning setup man. Putz could come on a relatively cheap, one year deal while Bonser may get signed for less than a million guaranteed with incentive escalators. Bonser missed the 2009 season after tearing his rotator cuff and labrum. Cost: 3 million
That leaves a couple of million to spend on one or two bench guys. One of those will definitely be an infielder that can play multiple positions, but mainly will back up Manzella. They'll probably add another outfielder too. Maybe Ryan Church? Cost: 2 million

We just spent 14 of that 15 million, with some change to spare. A roster with that bullpen, Tejada at third and Church spelling guys like Pence and Lee isn't bad at all, but still won't be a winner. The only way that happens is if the Astros add two starters and that's just no in the cards.

Jose Valverde Rejects Arbitration Offer- Who Closes Now?

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:00:32 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Adios, amigo.

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The Astros and GM Ed Wade were handed a great piece of news on Monday night, as closer Jose Valverde declined arbitration choosing instead to remain a free agent. Valverde made his intent to test the market in free agency known early on, and despite the extension of an arbitration offer from the Astros, Jose has decided to take the plunge and see if he can parlay his strong recent seasons into a big money free agent contract.

Almost certainly this means the end of his tenure as the last man out the Astros 'pen. While he was certainly a positive contributor, he is a luxury that the organization cannot afford. If nothing else, we can remember Jose Valverde's as a rock of consistent, if not spectacular play, a welcome relief from the often turbulent ninths we saw from Brad Lidge. People jump all over Ed Wade and his penchant for bringing in relievers, often over cost, and rightfully so especially with a team lacking in talent like our Astros have been. At least we can say in Valverde's case that the big name reliever was as good as advertised once he got to town.

Now the question that need be answered is who will step into the vacated closer's position? Rafael Soriano, whom the Astros had reported shown interest in, has accepted the Braves' offer of arbitration, while set up man Mike Gonzalez has chosen to take the opposite route in rejecting the Braves' advances. On the Braves' front, the back end of their bullpen will be full of former and current closers, with Soriano joining Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner after the latter two recently joined Atlanta in free agency. I don't know if Braves' GM Frank Wren anticipated that Soriano would decline arbitration, but he will have a large sum of $ invested in three men who will pitch at most 190 innings combined. That's an almost Astro-like utilization of resources. To the point, Gonzalez will be an option for Ed Wade to check in on. A multi year deal would most likely be what it takes to reign in the man with the awesome windup.

Of course, LaTroy Hawkins is an option, but he has been sought after by more than just the Astros. If anything, I would expect Ed Wade to amp up his charge to sign Hawk to a one year contract for 2010. If I had to place a wager, I believe he will be re-signed and given the opportunity to be our closer. Without great strikeout stuff, Hawkins will have to overcome his lack of a killer fastball to get hitters out. Our budget may necessitate this more than anything else.

Kevin Gregg, Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney are out there, and I hope the Astros do nothing more than kick their tires and pass. J.J. Putz, however, would be an interesting sign, and could probably be had on the cheap after coming off injury and poor performance.

The Astros were given a gift last night. Who knows what can be done with it. A free agent starting pitcher and/or an affordable third base option are more realistic than last week, in terms of ability of the Astros to sign a player or two. In the long term, Bobby Heck has produced a solid draft class from 2009, and if Valverde as expected does not re-sign with the club, two draft choices will come his way. All in all, a good night for the Astros. The next couple days could be even better as a result.

Astros Winter Meeting Links

davoag — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:58:31 -0000

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It's looking like the first part of my theory on the Astros bullpen plans are coming to fruition. Jose Valverde can't find a deal, so his best option is accepting arbitration with the Astros. That probably means his salary will fall somewhere around 9 million. Ken Rosenthal is reporting the possible salary number at 10 million, but from looking at the market, that seems high to me. At the same time, Valverde's salary was 8 million last season, so you can guess where it will end up through this negotiation.

Two points to remember: First, Valverde has until midnight Monday to decide whether to accept arbitration. Certainly, his agent has an idea how the market will shape up to this point. The fact that both Billy Wagner AND Takashi Saito both signed before rumors of Valverde have hit the market. Second, even if Valverde accepts arbitration, it doesn't mean he's locked into an arbiter deciding his 2010 salary. Check out AstroAndy's excellent rundown of the process for a refresher.

I say the first part of my theory looks sound but the second part, bringing Hawkins back, looks less likely. Maybe the Astros could have struck quickly and signed Hawkins to a modest deal a couple of weeks ago. Now, the market seems to be heating up for the soon-to-be 37-year old with the Rockies being the latest team to express interest.

Honestly, I'm less afraid of Valverde returning on a one-year deal than of the Astros working out a multi-year deal for him. Sure, it's probably not the best use of resources to lock up a closer for big money with a limited budget. But, what else were they going to spend money on? Ed Wade has made it clear he's not spending on a starter, that third base is pretty set and that he's happy entering the season with Towles, Q and possibly Castro in the catching mix. Bringing back Valverde will not only give the Astros a more solid bullpen, they won't be able to get a player of his talent on a contract that short. This is better news than it seems.

On to more of the weekend's best links:

This news is either depressing or somewhat hopeful, depending on how you look at it. Mier appears to be one of the steals of the 2009 draft. Lyles and Castro are both ahead of schedule. No winning records since 2007, though? Is it really important for minor league affiliates to win games? If the system can churn out one to two prospects a season, isn't that what matters most?
My analytical toolbox has been duly updated. Thanks, Dave Cameron.
Recent injuries have sidelined both Wesley Wright and Brian Bogusevic. Both might have an impact on the 25-man roster next season, so maybe it's time to shut them down until February.
Here's Brian McTaggart's take on the Winter Meetings. Not surprising that the Astros won't be movers and shakers. Richard Justice thinks the Astros woes lately are all because of Baylor. Personally, I'd blame that replay official up in Dallas. That game was clearly over. He owes us a TCU-Alabama national championship.
Worried about Roy Oswalt? Apparently, we shouldn't be. His best buddy, JJO, says he's rested and ready to go. He also is happy with his new pitching coach.
It's a bit of a stretch to think Bryce Harper may fall to No. 8, but man, can this kid play? This is one of the coolest videos I've seen in a while. As athletic as he sounds, maybe he switches to third base? A man can dream, can't he?
More distressing news from the NCAA about the draft process. I know there are some who would like to see an international draft, but honestly, do we need to give more power to organizations like this? After the NCAA settled with Andy Oliver, it seemed clear its intent was to move back to the status quo and that's exactly what they are doing.
A very illuminating profile on Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. All those GMs saying he's the third- or fourth-best pitcher on the free agent market? They probably thought Kyle Farnsworth was also one of the best. I don't know what it is about a lefty with a fastball that makes scouts lose their minds. Doesn't his utter lack of control worry them just as much?
Boy, this Rangers sale is going to be fun to watch. Plus, there is the added intrigue on whether Nolan is sticking around with the team. Obviously, this worries me more than anything else about that debacle, since I like the idea of Round Rock being the Triple-A affiliate. If they leave, would the Astros bring back the Beaumont Golden Gators?