SB Nation - Akinori Iwamura

Fantasy Baseball: Profiling Yesterday's Non-Tenders

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Yesterday was the last day that teams could offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and there were some interesting non-tenders for sure. Let's take a look:

Matt Capp, CL, PITT

The Pirates will now go into spring training looking for a closer, unless they veer off course and sign a free agent like Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, or Kevin Gregg. They also could dangle Andy Laroche in a deal for a closer since they traded for Akinori Iwamura to play second base. That assumes that Pedro Alvarez wins the Pirates 3B job out of spring training, otherwise Laroche will be the Pirates 3Bman. Here is what MLB.com said about the Pirates closer situation:

In the meantime, the Pirates now have even more work to do to construct a bullpen that had already lost Jesse Chavez in an offseason trade. One thing the Pirates do seem confident in, though, is that their next closer could come in-house, as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are likely to garner consideration for the role.

I don't see either Hanrahan or Meek keeping the job. Capps Is coming off his worst year of his career as he ended the year with a 5.80 ERA. Could the Phillies take a chance on Capps to backup Lidge?

Jonny Gomes, OF, CIN

Gomes is coming off a season where he went 20-51-.267-.338-.541-.879. Gomes could be a nice pickup for a team that wants to platoon his vs. left-handed pitchers as he hit .307-.369-.545-.914 against lefties in 2009. In his career, Gomes has hit .274-.369-.517-.885 vs lefties.

it appears the Reds will go into spring training with an open competition in LF with Wladimir Balentein, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier vying for the spot.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL

Johnson is coming off a down year where he lost the second base job to Martin Prado in Atlanta. He went 8-29-7-.229-.303-.389-.692 in 2009 after going 12-69-11-.287-.349-.446-.795 in 2008. Johnson's BABIP in 2009 was a very low .247, much lower than his career BABIP average of .311. There were some positives in his 2009 season, as he lowered his K% from 18.4% to 15.6% and increased his BB% from 8.5% to 9.3%.

Johnson could be a nice sleeper in 2009 should he land a second base job. If he can bring his BABIP close to .300 and continue to show improved plate discipline, he could have another season like he did in 2008. Do you hear me Ned?

Poll

Which player has a better chance at landing a starting job in 2010?

Out of the Office

Charlie — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:26:33 -0000

I'll be playing in Baltimore tonight and Brooklyn on Saturday, so please have patience and I'll be back in a couple days.

In the meantime:

-The Pirates will announce the name of their new Class A+ Bradenton team on Tuesday.

-The Bobby Crosby signing is official, as most of you probably know. After being annoyed about it for a while, I've come around to it--they're not paying him much, and as bad as he is, he's enough of an upgrade over Brian Bixler that he's worth having around.

-Jesse Chavez moves again, this time to Atlanta for Rafael Soriano. The Pirates really would have had no business paying a reliever $7.25 million, as the Rays will do with Soriano, but this is still a nifty pair of moves for Tampa--they grab Chavez and get rid of a few million bucks in salary by shipping Akinori Iwamura to Pittsburgh, then get a top-notch reliever for only a couple million more. A solidly-built, contending team can spend that kind of money on a closer, but a team like the Pirates should probably treat closers like filet mignon and use their millions on more basic foodstuffs.

A Brief Primer on the Rays Off-Season to Date and a Look Forward to the Winter Meetings

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:54:22 -0000

The Winter Meetings start tomorrow. Any murmur or misunderstood comment will be amplified and some press members will be used as pawns. Disinformation is going to spread like wildfire. This makes the event more alluring as a spectator sport, but keep in mind 90% of what is talked about will never come to fruition. Now, completely ignoring that, this is the day one open thread. Ideally most of the rumors and discussion will stick to this thread until a recap thread is posted (expect that in the evening) barring something actually occurring or a rumor passing the smell test with flying colors.

This thread is going up about 20 hours early because tomorrow we'll have a very special interview with James Click -- the Rays chief of quantitative analysis and former Baseball Prospectus deity - which should provide entertainment for those willing to accept anything less than rumors in the early AM.

Moving on, let's review the Rays off-season to date in a brief and concise manner which means links.

Transactions

Rays re-sign Gabe Kapler

Akinori Iwamura for Jesse Chavez

Player to be named later for Kelly Shoppach

R.J. Swindle signs minor league deal

Joe Bateman signs minor league deal

Gregg Zaun signs with Milwaukee

Ramon Ramirez is claimed on waivers...

And then released

Milton Bradley

The Burrell-Bradley swap

The clubhouse cancer theory

Rumors and general interest posts

Rays interested in Ivan Rodriguez?

Pirates make Reid Brignac main target?

Why Billy Wagner made no sense for the Rays

Three rules about acquiring relievers

The Rays and the win curve

Kiko Calero

Brendan Donnelly

Kelvim Escobar

Joaquin Benoit

Carl Crawford extension talk

Interviews with Rays personnel

Andrew Friedman

Matt Arnold

Chaim Bloom

Remember that you can also follow the latest Rays rumors, news, and tidbits on Twitter by adding @draysbay, @trancel, @ehahmann, or @freezorilla.

One more note: please, please, post the source of the rumor. And generally speaking, the MLBTR comments section or a random message board post won't pass the smell test.

Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

I know the Spiderman joke doesn't entirely make sense other than my insistence on saying Kapler plays the field like a spider on acid ... but his arms here seem to support my theory on Kapler's arachnid nature.

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As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.

Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.

First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:

Player	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%
B.J. Upton	37	27	10	27.03
Evan Longoria	34	23	11	32.35
Jason Bartlett	28	18	10	35.71
*Carl Crawford	27	19	8	29.63
*Carlos Pena	23	12	10	43.48
#Ben Zobrist	22	14	8	36.36
Pat Burrell	21	17	4	19.05
#Dioner Navarro	19	13	6	31.58
*Akinori Iwamura	17	14	3	17.65
#Willy Aybar	15	11	4	26.67
*Gabe Gross	14	9	5	35.71
Gabe Kapler	10	9	1	10

What does this chart tell you? For one, the number of times a runner was on first when a single was hit (1stS), then how many times that runner reached second on the play (1stS2), and how many times they reached third (1stS3). What follows thereafter is a column with the header "Third%". Essentially: the amount of times the runner reached third. Now, keep in mind this is not a perfect metric by any means. Context is important and something that lacks with such a small sample size. There's a real and almost certain chance that the distribution of batted ball degree varies strongly. By that I mean some players - a la Carlos Pena - may have experienced more hard hit balls than others - vis-a-vis Gabe Kapler -- that or smiles are the fuel for legs.

Pena and Gabe Gross really leap off the page. I think if we did a community scouting report on the best and worst baserunners those two might be near the bottom based on speed alone. Meanwhile, Akinori Iwamura would likely be near the top with Kapler, and here he is advancing to third less than Pat Burrell. Upton and Crawford are around a third of the time, which is less than Longoria, Bartlett (I think most would have him top three), Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and pretty close to Willy Aybar. I can't think of a reason why, except that the ability to steal the extra bag leads Tom Foley to hold them on plays deemed too close. The factoid that dismisses that theory is that he literally does it for nobody else if such is the case, and that makes no sense.

Now let's shift gears a bit and look at the situations in which the runner was on first when a double was hit. From there we're seeing whether they scored or reached third - the minimum advancement:

Player	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%
B.J. Upton	6	3	3	50
Evan Longoria	14	11	3	21.43
Jason Bartlett	16	9	7	43.75
*Carl Crawford	10	6	4	40
*Carlos Pena	8	6	2	25
#Ben Zobrist	9	5	4	44.44
Pat Burrell	9	8	1	11.11
#Dioner Navarro	10	8	2	20
*Akinori Iwamura	3	1	2	66.67
#Willy Aybar	7	7	0	0
*Gabe Gross	4	2	2	50
Gabe Kapler	2	2	0	0

Now the sample size is really too small to say with any trace of confidence. Iwamura, Upton, and Bartlett lead the team, while Crawford and Zobrist aren't too shabby either. Guys like Navarro, Aybar, Pena, and Burrell are low on the totem pole as well. Nothing else stands out.

Our final situation involves the runner being on second when a single is hit and whether they scored or not:

Player	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
B.J. Upton	20	7	12	60
Evan Longoria	15	5	10	66.67
Jason Bartlett	22	12	10	45.45
*Carl Crawford	24	3	20	83.33
*Carlos Pena	15	6	9	60
#Ben Zobrist	18	6	11	61.11
Pat Burrell	9	6	3	33.33
#Dioner Navarro	9	2	7	77.77
*Akinori Iwamura	18	8	9	50
#Willy Aybar	2	1	1	50
*Gabe Gross	11	9	1	9.09
Gabe Kapler	9	4	3	33.33

So here's where the speed wins out. Crawford is fantastic. Longoria, Upton, and Zobrist are good. Navarro morphs into a rollie pollie when needed, and Gabe Gross is atrocious at it. I would've expected Bartlett to be higher, but them's the breaks.

What does all of this mean? Well, if you use Dan Fox's EQBR metric - by the way, he's now in the Pittsburgh front office - then unsurprisingly Crawford and Bartlett rate well, and .... Gabe Kapler is the worst baserunner on the team by nearly two full runs.

For all the (deserved) talk about Kapler's headiness and managerial experience, is he really the worst baserunner on the team? This seems counter intuitive on multiple levels. Kapler's body type resembles that of a safety more than a linebacker or defensive end. He appears to have quick feet. He doesn't fit the profile of a laggard given his defensive prowess either. So what's going on here?

Well, random fluctuation it appears. I took each of Kapler's individual seasons as a baserunner and ran the same percentages on them. The sexiness of having data dating back over a decade is appealing and great, but do you think 23-year-old Kapler's ability to go second to home tells us much about 33-year-old Kapler's ability? Maybe an extremely small amount, but what we really need to focus on is his last three seasons. Given that managerial break in 2007, we're looking at a period of four years and comparing them to 2009. The inherent small sample size issues get in the way again, but take a look at the contrast that exists:

Time	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
3 Yr	24	19	4	17	9	5	4	44	18	7	10	56
2009	10	9	1	10	2	2	0	0	9	4	3	33

Kapler rated better in each of three categories in the previous seasons. Barring some inside information that I'm not privy to, I'll go ahead and chalk this up to mostly poor luck. If you really wanted to dive into this data pile you could find the league averages and do a Marcels type projection to get super accurate figures, but know this, the gain is minimal. The spread of baseruning talent simply isn't that thick. It results in about a win differential from the worst team to the best. That's nothing to sneeze at and I'm not saying stack your team with nine Pat Burrell types ... unless they get on base at extremely high clips, then yes, stack them up and watch the runs pile up.

Again, many thanks to B-Ref for the data.

Astros Link-Fest: Fresh off the Hot Stove

davoag — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:44:02 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

That's the look of a man who just cost himself millions AND shot himself in the leg...that's right, he looks like Plaxico Burress!

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First up, Alyson Footer and Jonathan Mayo tweeted that Jason Castro will be in the AFL Rising Stars Game at 7 p.m. Saturday on the MLB Network. You'll also get to see other guys, like Stephen Strasberg, Dustin Ackerley and Drew Storen. But the cool part is Castro, if you're an Astros fan.

Remember this when we talk about free agent pitchers...was this really a hunting accident? Or did Frank McCourt do this to drive down Padilla's price on the market?
Speaking of my favorite divorcing owner, a judge recently ruled his wife couldn't get her job back. Isn't that nice? For more coverage of this crazy, crazy case (including a very interesting post on how the McCourts purchased and financed the team), there's a blog devoted specifically to the case: Dodger Divorce: How the McCourts came to own the Dodgers.
Why is it so hard for me to hate the best player on the team I despise the most? Because he's a really, really good guy...
McTaggart has a nice post on the Astros filing for free agency. Interesting speculation about Jon Garland. What say ye?
I don't know if you've stumbled across this yet, but some of the eggheads over at Harvard got together and created a blog on sports. It's (obviously) pretty smart and on sports other than baseball, but here's a thought-provoking piece on parity in baseball. It's much more thought-provoking than Justice's latest blog post on the subject, simply because it doesn't bring years of bias into the equation.
Just a quick note that one possible Astros target, Akinori Iwamura, was traded to the Pirates. Some interesting articles popped up all across the web here and here. I'm formulating a longer post based on these articles about the general state of the GMs in the National League Central, but it probably won't be up until Monday. Hold your breath until then....
Speaking of Justice, here's his plan for the 2009 offseason. Personally, I prefer DQ's plan...
In the department of making me feel hopelessly inadequate, this 27-year old just got the GM job of a minor league team. What have I done? Not taken over a baseball team, that's for sure...

Red Reposter - Sorry I Haven't Done One of These in a While, but My Hamstring Has Been Sore

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:15:11 -0000

by Keith Srakocic - AP

Brandon Phillips has been one of the best defenders in the league over the past 3 seasons, and he's looked mighty handsome doing it.

View full size photo »

The Fay has more Q's and A's
"Q, from CSA: If the Reds are so poor, why did they spend $10 million on a new scoreboard and another $10 million on the worst available manager? Not to mention all that money on Scot Rolen (that was a good deal BTW). Not to mention Willy Tavaras.

A: The hope is that the new scoreboard will pay for itself through increased advertising at the stadium. Which is a nice theory, but you’ve got to draw fans to keep rates up. Only 26 managers in the history of the game have won more games that Dusty Baker. Given the injuries and payroll, 78-84 was pretty good this year. Rolen’s salary was paid by Toronto this year. And they made a huge mistake with Taveras. But he only made $2 million this year."

I have no idea how this injury excuse has gotten any traction as a plausible reason why this team failed this past season. I would like someone, anyone, to make a good argument that this team lost because of injuries. Please.
RedsFest tickets went on sale yesterday
$15 for adults and $7 for the kiddos. "Over 50 current and former Reds players are expected to attend including Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Bronson Arroyo, Dusty Baker and 2010 Reds Hall of Fame inductees Chris Sabo and Pedro Borbon. In honor of the recent RR Monday Morning Quiz, a special 20th anniversary tribute to the 1990 World Series Champions will include Sabo, Joe Oliver, Eric Davis, Ron Oester, Hal Morris, skipper Lou Piniella and many more."
Hall o' Famer Hal says Dick Pole was a victim of soap opera-level revenge and acrimony
"One problem with the Reds is that CEO Bob Castellini listens to too many people and some of them have axes to grind or let personalities sway their opinions. One of them got Castellini’s ear about Pole and Pole was axed (pole-axed?). A manager and a coach is only as good as his players/pitchers and I saw improvement from the Reds pitching staff under Pole."
Project Prospect is ranking the best prospects by position in the minors
and Todd Frazier is the top 2B. They say he lacks the range to be a great defender, but his bat could more than carry him. I think his bat is about average as a LF, but if he can hold his own as a 2B he could be something special. If only our incumbent 2B could play SS...

Mike Leake and Zach Stewart (cough) make the pitcher's list, Yonder Alonso is 2nd on the 1B list, and Juan Francisco is 13th on the 3B list. Hat tip to RML.
The Pirates traded for displaced Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura
or as Tim McCarver knows him, "Aka...Akamura". Iwamura was hurt most of this season and lost his job to Ben Zobrist. This deal reminds me a lot of the Reds' deal for Scott Rolen, accept that I like this for the Buccos. Neither team is close to playoff contention, both of the players are in the last year of their contract, and both players are still valuable relative to their contracts.

The key differences are that the Pirates only gave up Jesse Chavez, a 26-year-old relief prospect (Josh Roenicke?), and they have plenty of payroll space left after adding his contract (his option, which the Pirates still have to pick up, is worth $4.85 mil, which will make him the highest-paid Pirate!!). Iwamura isnt going to make the difference for the Pirates, but he'll help them take the next step to respectability.

And when you consider that Iwamura is basically the same player as Freddy Sanchez, whom they traded for a good pitching prospect in Tim Alderson, and is signed for 1/3 the money that Sanchez is, then this is really quite a move for the Pirates. I cant believe I'm saying this, but I'm kinda jealous.
FanGraphs is working on putting together 3-year UZR leaderboards and loserboards
and Brandon Phillips narrowly misses making the "best" list, falling just outside the top 5. We'll see the top and bottom 5's over the next few days.
It’s the Hardball Times 2010 Annual
I've never bought the THT Annual, but I'm thinking about it this year. It's $21.95, so it's pretty reasonably priced. Has anyone picked up one of these? Is it a good investment?

Tampa Bay Rays Continue To Buck Trends And Set New Ones; Market Exploitation 101

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:00:30 -0000

It is no secret that the Tampa Bay Rays are never going to be major spenders in the free agent market like their AL East Rivals, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Instead, this team is built on, and will continue to be built on, things like: the amateur draft, international signings and development, shrewd free agent signings, and the occasional risky trade. In the Andrew Friedman era we've seen examples of nearly all of these scenarios; the drafting of Evan Longoria, the signing of Akinori Iwamura, the signing of Carlos Pena, and the Delmon Young/Scott Kazmir trades just to name a few.

Much to our collective chagrin, not all of the Rays moves are going to work as planned. For every Pena, there will be a Hee Sop Choi. For every Matt Garza and Ben Zobrist trade there will be deals like the ones involving Dioner Navarro and Edwin Jackson that don't exactly work as hoped. To be successful, the Rays not only need to follow the good process practice, but they must also excel in spotting market inefficiencies and exploiting them fully.

After the 2007 season the Rays made a conscious effort to improve their defense. They sought out cheap and effective defenders (Jason Bartlett, Gabe Gross) and built an American League Championship team around it. Defense has always been an important part of the game, but after seeing the Rays blueprint for success, many other teams went into 2009 looking for that same success.

Teams like the Mariners(trading Yuniesky Betancourt and replacing him with Jack Wilson as well as acquiring Franklin Gutierrez), Rangers (moving Michael Young for Elvis Andrus) and the Tigers (Adam Everett, Gerald Laird) all improved their defense and their win totals. In many ways because of the Rays success defense became the new version of Moneyball. This past off-season, teams shied away from offense only players and looked for a more readily available and cheap asset that can be found in a variety of places. However, defense isn't the only efficiency the Rays have tried to recently exploit.

In 2007, the Rays took a shot on a rehabbing Al Reyes and in return received a solid season from the oft-injured veteran. It was no surprise when Reyes flamed out in 2008, but he gave the Rays more production than any of us could've imagined. Also in 2007, the Rays traded for another oft-injured reliever in Grant Balfour, who had been placed on a few scrap heaps before landing with Tampa Bay. The Rays gambled on Seth McClung's potential in favor of Balfour's. In 2008, Balfour exceeded everyone's expectations and was a top three reliever in the American League; in 2009, he regressed to the top 15 or 20. Of course, there are names like Joe Nelson and Jason Isringhausen that didn't work out as well, however, the process was and still is good. We should all expect the Rays to continue dabbling in the injured reliever market in hopes of finding that next diamond in the rough.

The Rays were used to selecting at the top of the draft before 2009. Under the current regime we've added Evan Longoria, David Price and Tim Beckham at the top of the draft board. However, in 2009 the Rays were faced with a lower draft pick for the first time in franchise history. While it was never publicly acknowledged, the Rays seemed to target "toolsy," but injured players, especially in the beginning of the draft. With their first four picks they selected four injured prep stars. Once again, the plan didn't work perfectly as the projected easy sign, Levon Washington is set to play at a junior college and Kenny Diekroeger stayed committed to Stanford. However, third round selection, Todd Glaesmann, is projected to be an above average center fielder or corner outfielder. Meanwhile fourth round pick, Luke Bailey, may be the most talented catcher in the draft. The Rays will have to wait a bit longer, especially in the case of Bailey, who already faces an uphill battle as a catching prospect, but if all goes well the Rays will have secured a few first round talents without handing out a seven figure bonus to any draft pick.

Yesterday, the Rays may have uncovered another market inefficiency by executing the first "sign and trade" that we've seen in recent baseball history; trading Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez. As far as the trade goes, in a vacuum it's win for the Pirates. They get a three-win second basemen, who is signed for the 2010 season at well below market value. However, when you take the deal in context, Iwamura's days with the Rays were in the single digits no matter how you look at it and they were able to get something with everybody knowing that.

In actuality, it's a win-win for both parties. The Pirates get that three-win second basemen and the Rays are basically getting something for nothing. Once again, Aki is a fine player and worth every penny of the $4.85 million dollar salary, but the Rays have better and cheaper options in Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac and Willy Aybar, who in total will make less than Iwamura in 2010. In return for a player that had as good of a chance as you or I playing for the Rays in 2010, they get a 26 year-old relief pitcher who projects to be at least an average middle reliever. Jesse Chavez is young, has had major league success and most importantly is cheap and controllable(with options).

I don't expect this sort of deal to become the norm in baseball because the system is not set up for many of these trade opportunities like the NBA. However, the Rays surveyed their limited options, and were able to trade a player who they had no use for and still get a Major League ready chip in return. They also save themselves the money it would've cause to buy out Iwamura's option.

Chavez may turn out to be nothing more than an average reliever and that's alright. He is under team control for five years and could fill a variety of roles for the Rays. If the worst case scenario plays out and Chavez is deemed a "bust," then all the Rays would have lost is time and patience. The deal from a talent prospective isn't extremely impressive, but the Rays finding yet another way to acquire useful talent without using a lot of resources is very.

Ruining the World Series, Just Like A-Rod and Boras: Rays Trade Iwamura

devil_fingers — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:48:07 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Tampa Bay Ray' Akinori Iwamura watches his second-inning double off New York Yankees' A.J. Burnett in their baseball game against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in New York, Wednesday, May 6, 2009. He later talked to Alex Rodriguez about the best way to ruin the World Series even when not playing in it (AP Photo/Kathy Willens).

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You know, I kept my mouth shut when analyzing the Freddy Sanchez contract. But with reported trade of the Rays' Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez, I can't keep it in any longer.

Think back a couple of years ago when the game of baseball was the victim of possibly one of the worst breaches of its sacred code since some guy didn't run out a ground ball. You all know what I'm talking about: when Incarnation of Evil Scott Boras and his Willing Servant Alex Rodriguez announced that A-Rod would be opting out of his contract. A-Rod is "finally" hitting in the playoffs, but his horrible legacy lives on. Have teams and players no respect for this, the pure, untainted-by-greed World Series, the holiest part of the baseball calender? Instead of talking about the important stuff like whether or not Cole Hamels has quit on his team, Jose Molina's game-calling skills, Nick Swisher's "slump," trying to figure out if this "Chase Utley" character who just came out of nowhere is any good, and psychological speculation about the Yankees reliving 2004, we're going to have non-stop discussion and dissection of these moves, which is exactly the lesson that A-Rod and Boras wanted to teach to narcissistic, irreverent, selfish jerks like Sanchez, Sabean, Friedman, and especially Iwamura and his agent Alan Nero, who obviously negotiated his contract conditions with the idea of ruining from the World Series.

I guess we'll just have to push through and try to enjoy what's left, in between the constant Aki Updates. I'm so mad, I'm not even going to try and analyze Jesse Chavez. You hear that, Iwamura, you attention-craving jerk? Your strategy worked. Even a bigwig like me is going to give ALL the attention to you.

Akinori "It's All About Aki" Iwamura

#1 / Second Base / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 5-9

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Feb 09, 1979

Hitting: Iwamura was an above-average hitter in 2007 and 2009 (although he only got in 260 PAs during the latter), with a .338 wOBA (using FanGraph's data) during both, and was below average in 2008, with .323. Adjusting for age and regressing, he we'd estimate his skill to be a .329 wOBA hitter, or almost exactly average in this run environement, so 0 runs above/below average.

Fielding: There's a pretty big discrepancy here between the numbers and the fans when it comes to evaluating Iwamura's defense. In 2007, playing primarily 3B, Iwamura's UZR/150 was -0.2. In 2008 he made the switch to 2B, and had +1.6. This past season, he was almost completely average at 2B, with a -0.2. The Fans had a different opinion. According to my translations, the fans thought his skills for 2B warranted a +10.1 in 2007, +12.6 in 2008, and +3.4 in 2009. Overall, I estimate that is about 2.5 runs above average at 2B.

Putting it all together: Iwamura's had some injury problems and he isn't getting any younger, so we'll put him at 75% playing time. Average offense (+0) + 2.5 Fielding +2.5 Position Adjustment +25 AL Replacement Level = ~30 runs above replacement times 75% playing time = about 2.2 Wins Above Replacement.

Despite revealing himself as an obvious egomaniac and possibly a sociopath, Iwamura is probably an average player at worst, and is getting paid like a part-timer in 2010 ($4.25M). Some might think this trade is pointless at best for the Pirates, although as Dave Cameron notes, there's something to be said for a team like the Pirates just getting a good player at a good price. It's not like Chavez looks like much of a loss at this point. And, (to beat it into the ground) maybe the Pirates can turn Iwamura into Madison Bumgarner at the deadline next season!

As for the Rays, I guess their hand was forced by the contract (that's no excuse, though). While Iwamura was cheap for his expected performance, he wasn't going to start next year given the presence of the far superior (and much cheaper and younger) Ben Zobrist (not to mention guys like Sean Rodriguez and Willie Aybar who will be jostling for paying time). So the money can be better used elsewhere for them.

Plus, I bet Iwamura's a choker in the playoffs, just the player after whom he obviously models himself.

Rays hand Pirates some free wins (because they had to)

SFiercex4 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 02:39:41 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

about 1 month ago: FILE - In this May 13, 2009, file photo, Tampa Bay Rays' Akinori Iwamura throws out Baltimore Orioles' Brian Roberts (not shown) during the first inning of a baseball game in Baltimore. The Rays traded second baseman Akinori Iwamura to the Pittsburgh Pirates for right-handed reliever Jesse Chavez on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009. (AP Photo/Gail Burton, File)

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The news broke out today that the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired infielder Akinori Iwamura from the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Jesse Chavez. Now, there have been many sources of analysis on this topic, so I won't delve too much further into this, but I did think it would be nice for us to whip out the good ol' fashioned Sky Kalkman Trade Value Calculator (a Beyond the Box Score original!) once again.

The Players

Akinori Iwamura was the Rays' starting second baseman this season, having moved from third base to the keystone last season to make way for the long-awaited arrival of Evan Longoria. Since arriving in Tampa from Japan, Iwamura has been a solidly average to above average player for the team, posting WAR totals of 2.4 and 2.6 in 2007 and 2008 respectively, according to FanGraphs. Iwamura accomplished these totals in an extremely average way. His wOBA totals of .338 and .323, when park adjusted, yielded runs above average (RAA) totals of 4.7 and -1.1 runs in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Iwamura's defense was just around average as well, both at 3B (career UZR/150 of -0.2 runs) and at second (career UZR/150 of 1.1 runs).

So what you see in Iwamura is a slightly above average bat and an average glove at two "neutral" defensive positions of second and third base. In 2009, this trend did not seem to change, as Iwamura was posting a .338 wOBA at the plate and was worth, in total, 1.2 WAR before going down to injury for the season on a hard slide by Florida Marlins' rookie Chris Coghlan.

Without going through much of a projection, I feel fairly confident that I can pencil in Iwamura for production equal to his career .331 wOBA. For defense, I took a look at Iwamura's numbers both in UZR and TotalZone, and both seem to be in agreement of him being fairly average at either second or third base. The Fans seem to think quite highly of him, and because of that I'll give him a slight bump up to a +1 run defender. Using those numbers and the sort of playing time Iwamura gathered in 2008 gives you the following value from the calculator:

Essentially, Iwamura would be making the Pirates $7.5M in surplus value for his projected production. Based on what they gave up for him, that total is likely to be the total surplus value for the trade as well.

Jesse Chavez is a 26-year old righty reliever who has logged 82 1/3 innings in the major leagues for the Pirates organization. R.J. Anderson over at DRaysBay provides a better look at Chavez than what I will show you, but what I can tell you is that Chavez has walked and struck out batters at a decent enough rate over those innings. However, he has had a problem with home runs which has been exacerbated by allowing only 40% of batted balls to roll on the ground as opposed to flying through the air. He also has a severe lefty-rigthy split, though it seems reversed as R.J. mentions in the linked piece. Ultimately though, Chavez appears just another guy in the bullpen, someone whose production can be leveraged but is otherwise unspectacular and eminently replaceable. Given his career WAR total of -0.4 with the Pirates, placing him at around replacement level production is not a total stretch.

And now the context part

As many have been mentioning in analysis of this deal, when taken in a vacuum, the Pirates clearly came out a winner. Pittsburgh gets to fill a gaping hole at second base with a player who is more than capable of performing at or above league average level. The Pirates should be quite happy to have Iwamura on their team to replace Delwyn Young at second base.

The Rays appear to have gotten very little in return for Iwamura, but this was to be expected. They had a logjam in the infield and Iwamura's $4.85M option was unlikely to be picked up. In order to salvage some value from him instead of paying his buyout and receiving nothing, the Rays turned the $500K they would have paid to have Iwamura leave and instead received an arbitration-controlled arm that could presumably be plugged into their bullpen at a slight discount. The Rays had little to no leverage and came out with another player on their roster who will make very little and the difference between the buyout and the rookie salary. It cannot be considered a win, but the Rays simply cannot be blamed. Call it a win-neutral, if you will.

Rosenthal: Rays Will Receive Jesse Chavez in Return For Akinori Iwamura

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:38:24 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

4 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Jesse Chavez, left, and right fielder Delwyn Young build a tower out of drinking cups during a rain delay of their baseball game against the Chicago Cubs, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2009 at Wrigley Field in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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As seen here.

Jesse Chavez is a 26-year-old right-handed reliever formerly of the Texas Rangers organization. He moved to Pittsburgh in the Kip Wells deal of 2006 and has pitched out of their bullpen parts of the last two seasons.

In 82.3 innings in the Majors Chavez has posted a 4.79 FIP and 5.41 tRA. His batted ball profile is similar and he's had issues with home runs. He throws quite hard (an average velocity of 94.4) and features a slider and change-up as secondary pitches. His career contact% against is 78.8% and he's shown affinity for causing hitters to chase outside of the strike zone. He's posted xFIP of 4.1 and 4.48, which is reasonable, albeit a bit presumptuous that his home run issues can be fixed. His fastball appears to be a bit flat, which could be a cause of concern.

Chavez' change-up recorded 13% whiffs and his fastball near 8%. That bodes well, all things considered, and he sort of resembles a poor man's Brandon League. Obviously he's not a sexy name, but baseball knew the Rays were in a difficult position with Akinori Iwamura. There was no way he was returning for that salary and draft compensation was not an option, so the Rays' hands were tied. Chavez has the chance to turn into a nice piece for the 2010 bullpen. In a vacuum, this deal favors the Pirates.

Worth noting is that Chavez' role last year included a MOP of 0.96 - by comparison Grant Balfour's MOP was 1.2 - meaning he was more than just a janitor and a little less than a true set-up man. His career splits to date are expectedly reversed given that great change-up. In 169 plate appearances his OPS versus lefties is .690 and in 191 his OPS against righties is .907. He's Joe Nelson in that regard.