SB Nation - Brendan Harris

Saturday Morning Breakfast & Baseball: to non-tender or not to non-tender?

Jesse — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 11:47:07 -0000

The non-tender deadline is tonight, at 11pm CST.

Over the course of the last couple of months, as we realized of just how large the Twins' 2010 payroll could be, we've speculated as to whether Minnesota would non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players in order to skim a few million off the top. Boof Bonser, who actually rejected a one-year offer from the Twins not too long ago, seemed to be the first casualty during the Winter Meetings.

But now, Bill Smith tells Kelsie Smith (no relation, I'm sure), something very interesting:

"There will be limitations, but our ownership has set out what we think are certainly substantial funds to get our club ready for the start of the season."

I'm reading this in two possible ways.

Ownership has cleared funds "substantial" enough to ensure guys like Jesse Crain, Brendan Harris and Delmon Young aren't non-tendered.
Growing your payroll nearly $30 million dollars from Opening Day 2009 to Opening Day 2010 constitutes "substantial" funds.

Now if you want to lean toward option one, which is very intriguing and quite news-worthy if actually the case, then my question is this: just exactly how much more is in the piggy bank? As we've discussed before, keeping these guys in the fold on top of what's already in-house means a roughly $90 million dollar payroll. Is it possible there's still room to add to what's already far-and-away a franchise-record payroll?

But if you want to lean toward option two, which actually might be a little more realistic if you read the rest of Kelsie's article, then for some guys (Crain, Harris and Young in particular) the game is still on. The moves the Twins have already made make for a significant increase in payroll, and it's not like [Bill] Smith is coming out and making the meaning of "substantial funds" clear.

And then there's still the issue of Joe Mauer's extension, which I still believe with 100% certainty will be done before spring training begins. If that scenario follows suit with the standard procedure that most extensions follow, then Joe will be playing for more dollars in 2010 than he's currently slated for. So even if "substantial" means that there is still cash in the kitty, is there enough for money for Mauer on top of those arbitration-eligible players?

The good news is that we won't have to wait long to find out. We'll have all of our answers by 11pm CST tonight.

Poll

Does anyone get non-tendered by the deadline tonight?

Should the Twins Bring Back Joe Crede?

Jesse — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:18:29 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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Last February, Scott Boras client Joe Crede dropped his asking price enough for the Twins to sign him to an incentive-laden deal. He was exactly as advertised, from the glove to the power to the number of games he was healthy, but with the Twins going into 2010 with third base in essentially the same position it was at going into 2009, should the Twins double-dip on their experiment?

Okay, so the situation isn't exactly the same. Crede will be another year older with another injury-plagued season under his ~~back~~ belt, there are a pair of third base prospects that are nearly major league ready (Are they the next Casey Blake / Corey Koskie tandem? No? Right, then.) and the alternatives will be a bit more expensive. But in spite of all those things, the team is still in a similar position as they don't have the one sure answer that they need.

His '09 deal of $2.5 million base with playing time incentives ($50,000 for 400, 425, 450, 475, 500 and 525 plate appearances) and award incentives made his possible payout a reasonable $7,000,000. Suffice it to say he didn't reach any of those, so the Twins paid just the minimum. But according to the FanGraphs value scale, they still believe that Crede would have been worth $8.3 million on the open market for the performance he gave this past summer. How? Because of his defense and the position he plays, and did I mention his defense, Crede was worth 18.4 runs above replacement.

Among third basemen with at least 350 plate appearances, FanGraphs values Crede's defensive performance as fifth-best in all of baseball (behind Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre) in terms of fielding runs above avearge. He also tallied the highest UZR/150 total among third basemen with more than 700 innings in the field.

Long story short? Crede plays some wicked defense. Arguably better than any third baseman on the free agent market.

Joe knows the Twins, and isn't opposed to returning to Minnesota next year. Would playing more regularly on a non-artificial surface play less havoc on his back and knees?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

We all know the risks involved with Crede, which means the game would be all about how to mitigate those risks to both the player and the club. That means possibly giving him scheduled days off to keep his body as fresh and healthy as possible, not to mention offering a contract that resembles the 2009 version that will pay for good health.

Other free agent options are likely to cost more than Crede. Internal options may not be the health risk, but none of them can flash the leather like Crede, either.

What would you rather do? A Brendan Harris/Matt Tolbert platoon would cost a little less, but not significantly less than a $2.5 million base. Another thought: when (not if) Daniel Valencia gets his callup in 2010, what kind of a player do you want available as a mentor?

There's merit in considering Crede's return, it would just have to meet the right criteria. Where do you sit?

Poll

If you were Bill Smith, would you try to re-sign Joe Crede?

Yes, given the right conditions

846 votes

No, I'd move in another direction

202 votes

1048 votes | Poll has closed

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

When Is It Easier to Replace the Whole Than Replace the Parts?

Jesse — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 02:37:54 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

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And, when can it be done by a financially conscious club?

Answer: When there are no entrenched players with big contracts. Which is exactly the position the Twins find themselves in this year,

Almost two years ago to the day I talked about how this club would go about replacing Torii Hunter. It wasn't realistic to think that the organization would be able to replace everything Torii brought to the table with one guy, but it was possible that the Twins would be able to replace at least parts of his production through different players. This time around it's a little bit different, because A) there's more than one position open, B) the positions are open in spite of guys you could dub "incumbants" and C) we're not asking anyone to replace an All-Star.

If anyone is still wondering what position(s) I'm talking about, it's second base, third base and shortstop. Naturally.

With Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera possibly not returning to the Twins as free agents, both Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher are legitimate non-tender candidates this year. Brendan's versatility is only a plus when it doesn't cost a lot of money, which he's going to get now that he's about to enter arbitration for the first time; Brian's penchant for handling right-handed pitching gives him value in a platoon situation, but his defense and lack of power make him a one-trick pony if you give him extra credit for being able to backup first base. Being able to play multiple positions and having backup options has been part of Minnesota's MO over the last few years, but with Harris and Buscher in particular the Twins have some decisions to make as they weight their cost versus benefits ratios this winter.

This leaves Alexi Casilla (plausible trade fodder), Matt Tolbert (the new, younger and cheaper Harris) and Nick Punto (hello, contract!) as the only infielders who I would rate as likely candidates to remain entering 2010.

Let's get onto the fun part--what a player coming in would have to replace.

On-Base Skills
Casilla (.280), Crede (.289) Tolbert (.303), Harris (.310), Cabrera (.313), Punto (.337), Buscher (.360)

This should be one of the more essential attributes that any incoming infielder should possess. The two-hole, and the bottom of the batting order in general, had trouble producing base runners on any sort of a consistent basis. As a result the lineup, which was constructed around a handful of very competent and talented players, didn't score nearly as many runs as it could have.

Being able to hit, whether that's for power or average or both, is a secondary value as far as I'm concerned. Any player who can come in and simly prolong the inning by avoiding outs is an upgrade, and it's a necessity to find someone who can hit between Denard Span and Joe Mauer.

Plate Discipline

Getting on-base is priority number one, I don't care how anyone does it. But in the (most likely) event that the Twins don't get their hands on a premier middle infielder who is a natural hitter, they need to find a guy who can step in and just work it out. A guy who can be smart, identify the strike zone, identify pitches and be selective in his approach will find his way on.

Player	BB%	O-Swing%	Swing%	P/PA
Casilla	8.8	29.5	44.4	3.77
Crede	8.0	31.5	53.1	3.70
Tolbert	9.6	24.8	47.5	3.73
Harris	6.5	25.3	45.3	3.84
Cabrera	5.2	27.7	47.5	3.68
Punto	14.5	17.0	38.6	4.22
Buscher	15.0	19.8	41.3	4.26

BB% = Percentage of plate appearances that end in a walk (9.1% average)
O-Swing% = Percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone which were swung at (25.1% average)
Swing% = Overall percentage of pitches swung at (45.2% average)
P/PA = Pitches per plate appearance (3.87 team avearge)

The only two players consistently coming out on the better side of average are Punto and Buscher. We'll get more into Punto and his positives when we get around to our Season In Review series, but it's hard to look at what Brian did this year in very limited action (just 164 plate appearances) in one breath while saying he's a legitimate non-tender candidate in another. That's the difference between the microcosm and The Big Picture.

After our first two categories you should already have a pretty clear picture of how things look with our "incumbents", and how difficult it would be (or not be) to improve upon their 2009 performances. Punto's peripherals don't look horrible, while Buscher (as encouraging as his numbers are) were accumulated in very limited time. And it was limited time for a reason.

Power

Slg Iso HR/FB XBH%

Player	SLG	ISO	HR/FB%	XBH%
Casilla	.259	.057	0.0	3.9
Crede	.414	.189	10.1	8.7
Tolbert	.308	.076	3.7	4.3
Harris	.362	.101	5.2	6.4
Cabrera	.389	.105	4.2	8.1
Punto	.284	.056	1.1	3.9
Buscher	.316	.081	4.9	3.7

Power is an issue. We know this. We also know that as far as shortstop and second base are concerned, it's just a bonus. A big, fat bonus.

Defense

Not a bonus. Punto rated a plus at second base (5.2 UZR/150, while Crede (15.9) and Tolbert (8.0) each came out ahead at third base. Anyone and everyone else who played any sort of time at any of those three positions were, at best, below average. "Butcher" might be a more accurate term in some cases.

Speed

Cabrera is agile, Punto is quick, but only Casilla is someone I would dub as truly fast. He was 11 for 11 in stolen bases this season, confirming not just his raw speed but also his ability to read pitchers and get the jumps he needs. FanGraphs rates his speed component as 6.9 (compared to 5.0 average). That speed still hasn't translated to consistent success in the field however, resulting in flashes of prowess in his range mitigated with any number of mistakes.

Punto was 16-for-19 this season in stolen bases, but this is more a case of a guy who knows how to use his quickness than an example of a player whose raw speed gets him his numbers.

You can teach reaction, hone instincts and train for an explosive first step, but speed itself can't be taught. Finding a player who knows how to maximize his speed is more important than trying to bring in the fastest guy you can find, but as far as this tool is concerned it's one area where the Twins don't actually require improvement.

What good solutions are out there?

Dan Uggla is still toward the top of my list. He was second among all second basemen in walk rates in 2009, walking in 14 percent of his plate appearances. His OBP was solid (.354) and he complimented it with good power (.216 ISO, 31 home runs). He also knows his strike zone (18.7 O-Swing%, also second best in baseball among second basemen). Uggla's biggest detractor is his defense, which would roughly equate to Tolbert's season at second base: not pathetic, but definitely not good. He's right-handed and arbitration eligible.

On the free agent market is one Jamey Carroll, who is about as versatile as it gets while still being an effective hitter; in 2009 he played second, third and both corner outfield positions. For his career he's been extraordinarily selective as a hitter, swinging at just 16.5% of balls outside of the strike zone and just 33.6% of all pitches this past season. Career walk rates? Right around ten percent. On-base percentage? Just over .350 for his career, although hitting between Span and Mauer I could see him doing even better. The downside is that he'll be 36 next season and has only been a full-time player once in his career, usually appearing in roughly 100 games.

Felipe Lopez is also on the market, but projects as a Type-B free agent (not a big deal) and is also a Scott Boraas client (a bigger deal, literally). He's a switch-hitter, 30 in 2010, a good bet to post a .340+ OBP, and is a versatile defender although second and third might be his better positions. Lopez is also good for 25-35 doubles as a full-time player. As an option I really haven't considered much in recent weeks, he's definitely somebody to keep tabs on.

Finally there's fan-favorite J.J. Hardy, who is coming off of his worst professional season and a demotion to triple-A in Milwaukee. He's a gamble, but one that could pay off and likely shouldn't cost as much as Uggla, and he's also consistently been a good defensive shortstp.

Who else gets your vote as a favorite this off-season? How do they stack up as far as the essential peripherals?

As for the question which serves as the title for this post, the answer is as easy as the one I mentioned earlier, but it's probably also a bit more cruel. It's easier to replace the whole when the parts you have just aren't that good. There are bright spots, which includes Buscher's affinity for right-handed pitchers, Casilla's speed and some of Punto's peripherals, but none of them are complete packages and more importantly, none of them are good, star players who are capable of helping give the Twins an additional boost in 2010. They are who they are, with perhaps the exception of Casilla, and if the organization wants to give the club a little extra juice next summer they'll be hard pressed to expect anymore out of those three players than they got in 2009.

Twins Second Base In 2010: The Devil You Know?

Jesse — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:35:12 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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Stop me if you've heard this off-season story before...the Twins have an opening at second base.

When the Twins traded Luis Castillo at the 2007 trade deadline, it was seen as a curious but defendable action. Since then second base has been a carousel of mediocrity, with Minnesota starting Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla and Luis Rodriguez the rest of the way in just '07. '08 began with Brendan Harris and Matt Tolbert before Casilla and Punto and even Matt Macri saw starts. This past season saw the usual suspects cover the position once again, and while no new names were pulled from the hat it still means there were six guys getting starts over the last two-and-a-half seasons at second base.

It's difficult to be too hard on the front office for not bringing in an everyday second baseman last year. Punto had proven himself to be a versatile and valuable glove man over the years, even if 2009 wasn't as strong. Casilla has been, for the last two years, the guy that the organization has wanted to step into the role long-term. And as far as versatile swingmen are concerned, you could do worse than Harris. Additionally, as a position that typically doesn't provide a lot of offense, it kind of made sense that the vacancy at second base sort of fell to a secondary concern last winter.

Moving into 2010 it's impossible to not see second base as a primary concern. While the Devil You Know, or Devils, will still be around, their cumulative performance was one of the worse in baseball this season. Twins second basemen hit a combined .209/.302/.267 in 2009, with their .569 OPS by far the worse in the game. San Francisco's combined .611 OPS was good for a distant 29th.

Defensively the prospects weren't much brighter. As a group Twins second basemen accumulated a -7.0 UZR/150, 28th in the league. A -10.4 RngR was only slightly better at 27th.

The tricky bit, the part that sneaks into my brain and every other optimist's brain out there, is the bit that says Well, there's still some upside here. Casilla's still young, Punto finished strong at the plate and actually played strong defense down the stretch to end the year as the only Minnesota second baseman to finish the season with a UZR/150 not in the negative. Aye, that's the rub. THE RUB!

For the third consecutive season, the Minnesota Twins enter the off-season without an incumbant at any of the three infield positions to the left of first base. Each of the last two years I've said the exact same thing: as long as they fill two of those three spots with a quality player, I'll be happy. But even saying that I knew that second base wasn't the biggest concern. For the first time in these three years, I believe that it's just as important for the Twins to improve at second base as it is for them to solve their issues at third and short.

But with so many internal options available the organization will need to be creative if they aren't going to go the route that most of us expect them to take. If they want to think outside the box and go for a guy like Dan Uggla or Kelly Johnson, the trend of internal promotion that's plugged the gap in the middle infield over the last couple years will need to be bucked and some of those familiar faces, the Punto's and Casilla's and Harris's's's and Tolbert's, would likely find themselves donning new uniforms in 2010.

I'm hoping that the organization takes a few calculated gambles this off-season. I would like nothing more than to see this team make a move for a guy they believe can start 130 games at second base next year; not just start but own the position. He doesn't have to be an All-Star or a Gold Glove winner, but some value on at least one side of the ball would constitute an upgrade. That's what I want.

Poll

Where will the starting second baseman come from in 2010?

The Devil You Know (Internal)

284 votes

The Devil You've Probably Heard Of (External)

218 votes

502 votes | Poll has closed

The Bottom Line: Twins Struggle to Hold Leads VS Yankees

Jesse — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:04:47 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano throws during the first inning of Game 3 of the American League division baseball series against the New York Yankees on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Twins 1, Yankees 4

Every game of this series saw the Twins take a lead. In game one it was 2-0. In game two it was 1-0...and then 3-1. Tonight it was 1-0, again. And with the exception of game one, which was all Yankees all the time after the top of the third inning, games two and three could have been won by the Twins if only they could lock it down.

Nick Blackburn pitched very well in game two. And back home, Carl Pavano pitched an absolute gem in game three. Pavano struck out nine Yankee hitters in seven innings, walked nobody and allowed just five hits. Sadly, two of those hits came in the top of the seventh, when Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada each went deep.

Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares each walked a batter in the ninth, loading the bases for Joe Nathan with just one out. Nick Punto ignored a stop sign and was thrown out as he tried to dive back to third base. Jason Kubel upped his strikeout total to nine in the series. It's hard not to be a little bitter right now, to not have a sour taste in your mouth, but if you're looking to point a finger for the outcome of this series it can only be pointed at the team we love. And somehow, that makes it even worse.

It was a spectacular season. And that's all I'm going to say for tonight. No analysis, no name-calling, no wallowing in misery. The Minnesota Twins are the AL Central Division champions, and they played their tails off to earn that title. But the fact that I feel like I do only goes to show me how much this team means to me, and I already know that by tomorrow morning I'll be looking forward to the off-season, with the hope that next year...next year...might be the season we finally bring home the World Series trophy.

Congratulations to the New York Yankees, who advance to the ALCS. They made the plays they needed to make, and they took advantage of every single mistake the Twins made in this series. Which is exactly what you expect a championship-caliber team to do, big market or small markeet. Or mid-market, in Minnesota's case.

Thanks for a great season, everybody. I'll see you tomorrow.

Stars of the Game
Joe Mauer: Playing the role of MVP, Joe picked up the Twins' lone RBI of the night.
Denard Span: Two hits for the leadoff guy, along with a stolen base. Solid night.
Michael Cuddyer: A pair of hits for Cuddles, who also had a strong night.
Matt Guerrier: A big scoreless eighth inning.
Carl Pavano: Seven innings of fantastic ball, it was the best I've seen him all year. I definitely would like to see him back next season.

Tears
Nick Punto: After starting a rally with a leadoff double in the eighth, he ran through a stop sign from Scott Ulger on Span's chopper up the middle. It killed a rally the team desperately needed.
Brendan Harris: Hitless in big spots tonight.
Jose Morales: Looked overmatched at times; still looking forward to seeing him as Joe's backup next season.
Jason Kubel: Overmatched at all times. Nine strikeouts in the series with three more tonight. Extremely disappointing, sorry Patches.
Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares: Walking the bases loaded, with the team on the ropes. It doesn't get any worse than that, it really doesn't.

Respect
Alex Rodrigez: I hate the fact that you're such a great ballplayer. I liked him before he came to New York. Like a lot of players.
Andy Pettitte: Pitched a great game. One of the all-time great post-season pitchers.
Mariano Rivera: Continues to amaze, even at this point of his career. His buzz-saw of Mauer to end the Minnesota threat in the eighth was sick.

Poll

Where does your allegience lie for the ALCS?

New York Yankees

139 votes

Los Angeles Angels

274 votes

Actually, a team from the NL

92 votes

505 votes | Poll has closed

ALDS Pre-Game: Do Or Die...Again

Jesse — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 17:33:42 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

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A common theme, I feel.

Joe Mauer will be catching today, playing with a "hip flexor", which basically causes pain any time you try to flex a leg upward; kicking, lifting a knee, that kind of thing. So, really, not idea for your catcher. I'm thinking maybe DH'ing Mauer today, for his own good, would be for the best. With a four-man bench, two of them catchers, I feel it's a move that's pretty much made to order. This is also the kind of game where I'd trust Mike Redmond to come up with a big hit.
Montanatwinsfan noted this earlier, but with Matt Tolbert out due to an oblique strain Brian Buscher is taking his place of the playoff roster. Brendan Harris will get the nod at third base, and hopefully he can make a play or two like he did back in New York on Friday.
Jason Kubel needs to show up today. Four strikeouts in game two, which is just unacceptable by any measurement of success, showed exactly how overmatched he was. The bad news is that it's southpaw veteran Andy Pettitte on the mound, which means Kubel's contributions will be harder to come by. The good news is that pretty much any contribution is better than what he's given the Twins so far.
It's a good thing that Carl Pavano is getting a nod at home in the Dome. I can't imagine what kind of horrible reception he'd get had he started in New York. Not that he couldn't handle it, because I'm sure he could, but no doubt pitching in front of a crowd that's got your back will be much easier. Nick Blackburn managed to largely neutralize that great Yankee offense, and Carl will need to do the same.
It's hard to look at this series thinking "the Twins have to win three in a row" or "the Twins can't lose". You still have to take it one day at a time, because it's no use looking to tomorrow until you've won today. So that's how I'm looking at it: win today. Just win today. Then think about winning tomorrow. One game at a time.
Michael Cuddyer has homered off of Pettitte this year, in Minnesota's one shot at him. Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris picked up multi-hit days. Justin Morneau went 4-for-4, but for some reason I think he's unavailable tonight.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have already seen Pavano twice this season, both times when he was with the Cleveland Indians. Mark Teixeira is the only Yankee with a homer off him, while Derek Jeter is the only Yankee with more than one hit off him.
I like what Bill Smith had to say in Sid Hartman's column today. No excuses, but with a real understanding of the situation:

"We like our team, we like our players. Any success we have is going to be through scouting and player development. We know we have a great manager and great major league coaching staff. We have a lot of good young players who have come through our system."

This could be the swan song for the Metrodome, but I'd like to play at least one more. Let's take down the Yankees tonight.

Walkoff Bomb, Extra Innings, Clutch Hitting, Dramatic Comeback: Yankees do it the Yankee way in 4-3 win

CrazyYankeeChick — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 02:44:45 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Teixeira's ~~walk-off~~ skip-off long ball gives Yanks a 4-3 victory and a 2-0 ALDS lead

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I cannot believe what the hell just happened.

My hands are still shaking.

My heart may or may not be fighting the good fight against certain cardiac arrest.

I feel my head could pop off my body, either from light-headedness or excitement or sensory overload (because, ya know. That's the normal consequence...)

The Yankees just beat the Twins in 11 innings, off the bat of Mark Teixeira--his first walkoff in pinstripes, the Yankees' 11th postseason walkoff.

You know how this recap started? At 9:08pm I sat down at my desk and wrote the following:

I had forgotten what this feels like. I hated watching other teams play in the postseason last year. I was so jealous. And now I remember how miserable it is. It's only one loss, but I feel like I lost a limb. I can’t go out, I can’t eat, I can’t sleep. I just want to curl up in a ball until Sunday comes.

Now? Well, the prospect of recapping the last 5 hours of my life is a little more palatable right now:

A.J. Burnett’s postseason debut was a stellar coming-out party, as he dealt his standard array of filthy sliders and slurves and gas and whatever other permutation of pitches he could come up with to get the outs. And of course treated up to his standard array of wildness, which we’ve now come to accept as part of "Good AJ Dealing" Deal.

Over 6 innings of 3-hit ball, he blanked 6, and let up 1 run when on Brendan Harris’s triple drove in Delmon Young.

Down 1-0 in the 6th with only their third baserunner of the game on 2nd, Alex Rodriguez delivers his 2nd clutch hit in as many games. My buddy texts me: "I don't think I can handle a clutch ARod tonight." Apparently, I wasn't the only one ill-prepared in terms of proper head-to-neck adhesion.

At this point in the game, you're looking at it like it's your basic nailbiter pitcher's duel, and the fact that it's a postseason match makes it that much more impressively exciting. Amazing. Little did any of us know that in a few hours, the tied score in the 7th would be the least compelling timeframe.

For all the talk about CC Sabathia, ARod, and Burnett being galactic liabilities in the clutch, none of us, and I mean NO ONE, considered for even a second that our stumbles would arise with Phil Hughes on the mound. It's like when I took my road test and practiced parallel parking for the weeks prior. I dominated that part, and then ended up failing on account of going 50 in a school zone, not wearing my seatbelt, going the wrong way in a one-way street, and running a stop sign.

In 0.2 innings of "work," Hughes walked 1, and let up 2 runs on 2 hits, with all occuring on 2 outs. The golden child who redefined the value of the 8th-inning-setup all season long...put the Yankees in a 3-1 hole heading into the bottom of the 8th.

Our other relievers were effective to varying degrees, Phil Coke and Joba Chamberlain pitched to 4 batters between them, ceding zero runs. So when the game is handed over to Hughes then quickly snatched back to give to Mariano Rivera, you know Joba's thinking, "Yep, been there, done that..."

You gotta hand it to the Twins, they manufactured the hell outta baserunners, and off a very formidable pen. Nick Punto and Denard Span hit singles in the 8th to drive in Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris. Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer excelled offensively as expected, and with the team's12 hits on the day, they definitely out-basehitted the Yanks. But for my money, I'd rather be able to manufacture wins, than hits.

Minny also had 12Ks (to the Yanks' 4), which was ultimately their undoing, having left 17 runners and if scoring opportunties were currency, then the Twinks were squandering them away like it was the 15th of the month.

So between Minnesota and New York fans, basically no one is a fan of the Yankees' penchant for getting into jams just so they can work themselves out of it. I mean, I'm just as happy as the next guy to see the bottom of the inning roll around, but I may or may not have spent an abnormal amount of the game getting physically sick from nerves. Forget W.B. Mason, the more fitting corporate sponsor is PeptoBismol.

Then there was the 9th inning, and nothing I could write could ever possibly do justice to what ARod accomplished. He already had the only RBI of the game, and after Tex singled to reach first, ARod launched a bomb off supercloser Joe Nathan into the Yankee bullpen. It didn't just tie the game, it sent a message and it infuriated his critics...because there's no denying his postseason performance.

The only people more aggravated than Twink fans right now are anti-ARod activists who have been spending the last hour in an emergency summit meeting, where they've locked themselves in a conference room to brainstorm ways to dilute ARod's performance in the the clutch. Hope they stocked up on Starbucks.

So now we got a whole new ballgame. Tied at 3 and heading into extras, and I can't speak for other Yank fans, but when the Yanks come back at home, I never expect them to lose. I'm always a little surprised to some extent when they can't close it out. And the fact that the Twins weren't rolling over and dying in these late innings of play, was making me increasingly panicky. "Oh my God. They could take the lead. Right now. Jesus."

I get nervous with pickoff attempts, so when Damaso Marte put 2 runners on in the top of the 11th with no outs, I lost about 17 years of my life. Once again, newly rehabilitated David Robertson gets the call to pull his team out of a mess of a situation. Every time you think you've seen the most unbelievable element of the game, the Yankees reset the bar at another ridiculous plateau. No runs scored with the bases loaded and zero outs.

I didn't even have time to process this absurdity before Tex goes yard in front of over 50,000 in attendance at the Bronx. And sweet Christ, that ball left in a hurry. Sterling didn't even have time to build any suspense. It was, "Line drive down the left field line...and IT IS GONE!!!"

The Twins are now overfeated against the Yanks, having lost the 9 straight to them--their 4th of the walkoff persuasion. My Mets-fan friend with an evidenced death wish spent the better part of the game either gloating at Yanks' setbacks, or vehemently affirming that the game is fixed and the Yanks were only where they were because of the umps.

Hey, if you can't score 1 run with bases loaded and no outs, you got bigger fish to fry than questionable officiating. On Wednesday, when CC clearly whiffed Orlando Cabrera, but he was charged with a walk, and 2 runs scored when the inning shouldn't have even been going on. Blame the umps as much as you want, but it all evens out in the end.

On Sunday, the Yanks and Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16) will face their old friend Carl Pavano (14-12, 5.10), who has won nearly twice as many starts in 1 year with the Indians/Twins as he did in 3 years with the Yankees. It'd be nice to thank him for his years of service with a sweep.

Congratulations, Yankees, on reminding the world who they're up against. And thank you, ghosts, for springing for postseason tickets. In the words of Frank, "If you can make it here, you'll make it anywhere. It's up to you, New York, Newww Yorkkkk."

-CYC

I've Got A Span-Crush: Twins Win Big As Denard Span Drives In Six

Jesse — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 02:46:38 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

Minnesota Twins' Denard Span pwnes the Kansas City Royals Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto scored on the triple. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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Twins 11, Royals 6: Way to choke, Chicago.

Every time Denard Span comes to bat in the near future, all Kansas City Royals fans should avert their eyes for the greatness that his His Royal Span-ness. Tonight, his Royal Span-ness tripled to give the Twins their first and only lead of the game, scoring three to run the score to 5-2. It was all gravy from there.

Early on, Scott Baker gave up a couple of pop-fly homers to Alberto Callaspo and Brayan Pena; a pair of solo shots that both hitters looked to just get a piece of. Magically, they both left the field in almost exactly the same place in right field. The only conclusion I can draw is that the Royals had their fans blowing out. Fans, as in air circulation fans, because I think a lot of the fans fans at the game were Twins fans. Of which there weren't nearly enough blowing IN.

After that Baker settled in and cruised, hitless, until the seventh. Four-plus innings of hitless ball, but three batters into the seventh Baker had allowed one run, and had a man on third with one out. Ron Mahay came on to stem the....well, I use the term "tide" loosely, as this game wasn't exactly over although that man from third did score to get the Royals within three at 7-4.

Back to everyone's new Span-crush, Denard is showing absolutely no ill signs of being hit in the back of the head. Which is nice. Three singles and a triple on the night have him a 4-for-5 evening, and the six runs batted in have accounted for 9% of his season totals in that category. Other studs in tonight's 11-run explosion include...

Joe Mauer, whose two singles and a walk garnered him his 91st and 92nd RBI of the season and a .371 batting average. Ichiro Suzuki, it should be noted, was 0-for-3 before getting tossed after drawing a line in the dirt (get everything you need to know right here) and is now batting .353.
Nick Punto, who was 0-for-1 on the night but walked not once, not twice but thrice. Three walks tonight for Popeye's second cousin twice removed. He's not a sailor, both eyes are fully functional and he doesn't mumble incoherently, but he does has massive forearms. It's great to see Punto contribute again.
Brendan Harris picked up a pair of hits and an RBI, and Orlando Cabrera's solid single late in the game tacked on a run as well.

Baker's final line wasn't exactly glowing, but he did pitch better than his numbers. Something he's done on more than one occasion this season. On the Royals' side of the rubber, Lenny DiNardo had the exact kind of night he should have had against an offense like the Twins: a bad one. Yasuhiko Yabuta is also welcome to pitch against the Twins anytime he likes, surrendering four runs off four hits and a walk while tallying a single out. Good times.

The only downside to tonight's game is that the White Sox managed to ~~lose~~ ~~choke~~ vomit all over themselves and lose to the Tigers. After leading 5-0 through four, Chicago allowed at least one run per inning the rest of the game en route to a 12-5 ass kicking where they allowed a score of hits. That's right, I said it, a score.

Tonight's game was a grand one, no doubt about it. Sadly we head into the final game in Kauffman Stadium for 2009 tomorrow against one Zack Greinke still trailing the Tigers by two games. If there's ever a time to play your best baseball of the season, it's right now. Good for Detroit for doing the same.

Hopefully it will make next week all the sweeter. We'll find out. But...GREINKE FIRST. I'll see you in the morning.

Stars of the Game
#3: Joe Mauer (2-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI, .061 WPA)
#2: Nick Punto (0-for-1, 3 BB, 2 R, .081 WPA)
#1: Denard Span (4-for-5, 3B, 6 RBI, R, .346 WPA)

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.