SB Nation - B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett Among Rays' Tendered Contracts

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, left, and pitcher Lance Cormier both received one-year deals, avoiding arbitration.

Browse more photos »

Now that decision Saturday is finished, the Rays roster has gotten a bit clearer in some areas, yet remains unsettled in others. Not surprising, but B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Kelly Shoppach were all tendered contracts for the 2010 season. Barring an unforeseen event, all should be back with the Rays. The remaining questions are: who will sign before the mid-January deadline? And will any have a hearing like Dioner Navarro did last season?

Speaking of Navarro, a non-tender candidate in his own right, he was not only tendered a contract, but re-signed before the midnight deadline to a one-year deal with $2.1 million dollars avoiding arbitration altogether. The $2.1 million dollar salary is an exact replica of the salary Navarro received in 2009 after an arbitration panel denied his request for $2.5 million. It's not secret Navarro was just awful in 2009, but some of that awfulness can be explained by bad luck.

Even with regression, it seems that Navarro and the other catcher on the roster, Shoppach, are not ideal platoon partners with each player owning a similar platoon split. The Rays could stay status-quo on the position, or could continue to shop Navarro as was reported before Saturday's deadline. The going rate on an average catcher this year seems to be $3 million annually; Navarro could be a cheaper, alternative to some on the open market. If not, they Rays will have about ~$5 million dollars tied up at the catcher position with no clear cut answer to who is the starter.

Gabe Gross's non-tender is not a surprise. His name was never mentioned by Joe Maddon or Andrew Friedman as part of the 2010 plans, and Matt Joyce will never be more ready than he is now. Maybe the Rays will sign Ryan Langerhans for R.J. to obsess over.

R.J. covered the one-year deals of Randy Choate and Lance Cormier that will pay the bullpen duo a combined $1.9 million dollars in 2010. Choate will head in to spring training as the lead LOOGY in the clubhouse, while Cormier will nearly double his 2009 salary ($650k) and earn $1.2 million dollars. With Andy Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot in the mix for bullpen spots, the raise for Cormier could mean an expanded role; one more similar to fellow ground baller, Chad Bradford instead of just mop-up man.

Among players non-tendered by other teams, I think Matt Capps makes the most sense for the Rays. The Rays had reported interest in him before the deadline, and it's easy to see why. Capps is still young at age 26, and was well above average in 2007 and 2008. It's strange that the Huntington/Fox front office would cut him loose based on one bad season in which some regression seems to be in order. If the Rays can some how dig into their new, seemingly bottom-less, purse one more time this offseason, Capps would seem like a decent investment since his new team would also hold his rights for 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays Reportedly Interested In Roy Halladay; Wade Davis and B.J. Upton Possible Return?

Tommy Rancel — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:24:33 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Browse more photos »

Update: The godfather, Peter Gammons reports the Rays have denied interest in swapping Davis + Upton for Halladay. However, his report doesn't deny the Rays did some tire kicking. which we would all expect them to do. It is fun to think about Halladay in a Rays uniform, but it remains highly unlikely that anything goes past the feeling out stage.

UPDATE: ESPN's Peter Gammons quips via the Hot Stove that "The Rays have flatly denied their interest in discussing Wade Davis and B.J. Upton for Roy Halladay."

In another Fox Sports report, The Rays are actively shopping Dioner Navarro and are likely to non-tender him if a deal isn't reached by Friday's deadline to tender a contract. Neither scenario, trade or non-tender, is a surprise.

Foxsports

The Rayshave asked Toronto officials about Halladay, according to one major league source, and might be willing to offer star pitching prospect Wade Davis and outfielder B.J. Upton.

Toronto could then flip Upton to a third team.

This isn't the first time that the Rays have shown interest in the Toronto ace. They made a strong push in July, sources said.

Halladay would need to waive his no-trade clause in order for the deal to happen, and it's not clear if he would be willing to do so. But he resides in the Tampa Bay area, so spending one season with the Rays could appeal to him.

So much for ragtag catchers and recycled relievers. While this report seems to come out of nowhere, it seems entirely possible that the Rays would show interest. As the report states, the Rays made a play for Halladay this summer, so it's natural that they would try again. As is the case with 99% of these scenarios it probably won't play out, but stranger things have happened.

For such a trade to take place, it would be a clear indication of the Rays ditching their "thinking long-term" efforts in order to hit big right now. This type of move would be very uncharacteristic of the Rays. Andrew Friedman has yet to acquire an established big name via trade, and it would be really hard to see him doing so within the division. A year of Roy Halladay would be great, but at the cost of three years of B.J. Upton and six years of Wade Davis, I just don't see him doing that.

The Rays could very well have interest in Halladay, but could also be doing their do diligence and seeing exactly what Toronto is asking just to keep tabs on the other teams vying for his services or try and raise the market for one of their competitors.

Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

I know the Spiderman joke doesn't entirely make sense other than my insistence on saying Kapler plays the field like a spider on acid ... but his arms here seem to support my theory on Kapler's arachnid nature.

View full size photo »

As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.

Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.

First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:

Player	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%
B.J. Upton	37	27	10	27.03
Evan Longoria	34	23	11	32.35
Jason Bartlett	28	18	10	35.71
*Carl Crawford	27	19	8	29.63
*Carlos Pena	23	12	10	43.48
#Ben Zobrist	22	14	8	36.36
Pat Burrell	21	17	4	19.05
#Dioner Navarro	19	13	6	31.58
*Akinori Iwamura	17	14	3	17.65
#Willy Aybar	15	11	4	26.67
*Gabe Gross	14	9	5	35.71
Gabe Kapler	10	9	1	10

What does this chart tell you? For one, the number of times a runner was on first when a single was hit (1stS), then how many times that runner reached second on the play (1stS2), and how many times they reached third (1stS3). What follows thereafter is a column with the header "Third%". Essentially: the amount of times the runner reached third. Now, keep in mind this is not a perfect metric by any means. Context is important and something that lacks with such a small sample size. There's a real and almost certain chance that the distribution of batted ball degree varies strongly. By that I mean some players - a la Carlos Pena - may have experienced more hard hit balls than others - vis-a-vis Gabe Kapler -- that or smiles are the fuel for legs.

Pena and Gabe Gross really leap off the page. I think if we did a community scouting report on the best and worst baserunners those two might be near the bottom based on speed alone. Meanwhile, Akinori Iwamura would likely be near the top with Kapler, and here he is advancing to third less than Pat Burrell. Upton and Crawford are around a third of the time, which is less than Longoria, Bartlett (I think most would have him top three), Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and pretty close to Willy Aybar. I can't think of a reason why, except that the ability to steal the extra bag leads Tom Foley to hold them on plays deemed too close. The factoid that dismisses that theory is that he literally does it for nobody else if such is the case, and that makes no sense.

Now let's shift gears a bit and look at the situations in which the runner was on first when a double was hit. From there we're seeing whether they scored or reached third - the minimum advancement:

Player	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%
B.J. Upton	6	3	3	50
Evan Longoria	14	11	3	21.43
Jason Bartlett	16	9	7	43.75
*Carl Crawford	10	6	4	40
*Carlos Pena	8	6	2	25
#Ben Zobrist	9	5	4	44.44
Pat Burrell	9	8	1	11.11
#Dioner Navarro	10	8	2	20
*Akinori Iwamura	3	1	2	66.67
#Willy Aybar	7	7	0	0
*Gabe Gross	4	2	2	50
Gabe Kapler	2	2	0	0

Now the sample size is really too small to say with any trace of confidence. Iwamura, Upton, and Bartlett lead the team, while Crawford and Zobrist aren't too shabby either. Guys like Navarro, Aybar, Pena, and Burrell are low on the totem pole as well. Nothing else stands out.

Our final situation involves the runner being on second when a single is hit and whether they scored or not:

Player	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
B.J. Upton	20	7	12	60
Evan Longoria	15	5	10	66.67
Jason Bartlett	22	12	10	45.45
*Carl Crawford	24	3	20	83.33
*Carlos Pena	15	6	9	60
#Ben Zobrist	18	6	11	61.11
Pat Burrell	9	6	3	33.33
#Dioner Navarro	9	2	7	77.77
*Akinori Iwamura	18	8	9	50
#Willy Aybar	2	1	1	50
*Gabe Gross	11	9	1	9.09
Gabe Kapler	9	4	3	33.33

So here's where the speed wins out. Crawford is fantastic. Longoria, Upton, and Zobrist are good. Navarro morphs into a rollie pollie when needed, and Gabe Gross is atrocious at it. I would've expected Bartlett to be higher, but them's the breaks.

What does all of this mean? Well, if you use Dan Fox's EQBR metric - by the way, he's now in the Pittsburgh front office - then unsurprisingly Crawford and Bartlett rate well, and .... Gabe Kapler is the worst baserunner on the team by nearly two full runs.

For all the (deserved) talk about Kapler's headiness and managerial experience, is he really the worst baserunner on the team? This seems counter intuitive on multiple levels. Kapler's body type resembles that of a safety more than a linebacker or defensive end. He appears to have quick feet. He doesn't fit the profile of a laggard given his defensive prowess either. So what's going on here?

Well, random fluctuation it appears. I took each of Kapler's individual seasons as a baserunner and ran the same percentages on them. The sexiness of having data dating back over a decade is appealing and great, but do you think 23-year-old Kapler's ability to go second to home tells us much about 33-year-old Kapler's ability? Maybe an extremely small amount, but what we really need to focus on is his last three seasons. Given that managerial break in 2007, we're looking at a period of four years and comparing them to 2009. The inherent small sample size issues get in the way again, but take a look at the contrast that exists:

Time	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
3 Yr	24	19	4	17	9	5	4	44	18	7	10	56
2009	10	9	1	10	2	2	0	0	9	4	3	33

Kapler rated better in each of three categories in the previous seasons. Barring some inside information that I'm not privy to, I'll go ahead and chalk this up to mostly poor luck. If you really wanted to dive into this data pile you could find the league averages and do a Marcels type projection to get super accurate figures, but know this, the gain is minimal. The spread of baseruning talent simply isn't that thick. It results in about a win differential from the worst team to the best. That's nothing to sneeze at and I'm not saying stack your team with nine Pat Burrell types ... unless they get on base at extremely high clips, then yes, stack them up and watch the runs pile up.

Again, many thanks to B-Ref for the data.

Evan Longoria Wins Gold Glove; Carl Crawford & B.J. Upton Robbed Once More

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:26:49 -0000

What I'm about to say has absolutely no bearing on Evan Longoria's accomplishment. He is one of the few winners of the mark of "defensive excellence" that actually deserves to be crowned. Here's what the Rays presser had on Longo:

"It's the one award that I've wanted to win since I started pro ball," Longoria said. "I take a lot of pride in my defense, so this award is very special to me. It's humbling to have your name associated with some of the great players who have won a Gold Glove, especially the third basemen. I would like to thank the managers and coaches who voted for me and I'd also like to thank Carlos Peña. We all know how good he is. He probably saved me at least five errors this year so without him the award might not have been possible."

Since 1990, only seven players have won a Gold Glove at a younger age than Longoria:

Player, Team                  Year(s)                  Age(s)

Ken Griffey, Jr., SEA      1990-91-92-93      20-21-22-23

Ivan Rodriguez, TEX     1992-93-94-95      20-21-22-23

Andruw Jones, ATL       1998-99-2000       21-22-23

Roberto Alomar, TOR   1991                      23

Scott Rolen, PHI            1998                      23

Eric Chavez, OAK          2001                      23

Jeff Francoeur, ATL       2007                      23

Evan Longoria, TB               2009        23

That being said, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton deserved it nearly as much and neither wins one yet again. The managers and coaches vote on these things and it's just insane to think they have a good grasp on who is and who is not a good defender based on - at most - seeing 18 games against these players. It's purely reputation based and even then they get it wrong.

Instead of Crawford and Upton, Adam Jones and Torii Hunter win the two non-Ichiro awards. I won't fake disgust because these, like the other awards, are absolutely meaningless when it comes to honest player valuation, but someone please make sense of this:

Flawed mainstream:

Errors

Upton 4

Crawford 4

Jones 5

Hunter 1

Fielding Percentage

Upton .990

Crawford .988

Jones .986

Hunter .997

Assists

Upton 6

Crawford 6

Jones 9

Hunter 2

Less flawed and esoteric:

UZR

Upton 11

Crawford 17.6

Jones -4.7

Hunter -1.4

+/-

Upton -1

Crawford 18

Jones -11

Hunter 4

Fans Scouting Report positional ranks

Upton 5th

Crawford 2nd

Jones 25th

Hunter 13^th

Or:

Player	E	F%	A	UZR	Dewan	Fans	Average
Upton	2	2	2	2	3	2	2.2
Crawford	2	3	2	1	1	1	1.7
Jones	4	4	1	4	4	4	3.5
Hunter	1	1	4	3	2	3	2.3

Hooray for the human element.

Fantasy Baseball: More dudes you need to love in 2010.

Ian, yo — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 20:25:47 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Browse more photos »

1. Jacoby Ellsbury- It's time to compare players!

Player A (2009): 606 ABs, 15 HR, 96 R, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .305, .816 OPS

Player B (2009): 624 ABs, 8 HR, 94 R, 60 RBI, 70 SB, .301, .770 OPS

Pretty close, eh? What if I told you that player A will likely be drafted as a top three outfielder in 2010, while player B could be drafted near the third round in drafts. I'm sure you know this but Player A was Carl Crawford and B was Jacoby Ellsbury. Crawford may give you a few more home runs and Ellsbury may get you more SBs, but I'm just not drafting Crawford in the first or second round when you can get someone at a thinner position and wait on Ellsbury.

2. Jayson Werth- Could be one of the most underrated players going into drafts next year. After putting up a season with 36 home runs, 98 runs, 99 RBIm, 20 SB and hitting .268, I could see Werth being drafted after the likes of Grady Sizemore (returning from elbow surgery,) Nick Markakis, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Bay, B.J. Upton and Josh Hamilton. Each one of those players has their downside, whether if be age, durability or just plain production and I'll be happy getting a four category stud in the later rounds than to gamble on one of the bigger "names" out there.

3. Brian Wilson- I understand how it may be tough to hold off on a closer when you have such elite talents like Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera, but there's one player who impresses me just as much as the elite closers and that guy is Brian Wilson. Over his first two seasons as the Giants full-time closer, Wilson has racked up 79 saves, 150 K, 55 BB, 122 hits in 134.2 innings. In 2008, Wilson had an ERA of 4.62 but his FIP suggested he'd pitched like a 3.93 guy and in 2009, his FIP suggested he'd pitched better than his 2.74 ERA with a 2.50. If your reliever puts up excellent K/9 and save totals, it makes it worth his higher possibility of putting up an ugly whip or ERA since one bad outing for a reliever can be offset by one decent start by another pitcher.

Poll

Which would you prefer to draft in 2010 taking ADP into account?

Jacoby Ellsbury

64 votes

Carl Crawford

38 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Part I: Interview with Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect

Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 16:15:13 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

5 months ago: Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Brett Anderson delivers against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning of a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston on Monday, July 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

Browse more photos »

Although this is my first baseball-related article on Fake Teams, here's proof I haven't been drinking Heinekens and watching the NFL all week.

First, I'd like to take a quick pat on the back and make this my first announcement that beginning shortly, I'm also going to be joining another staff in cahoots with Yahoo shortly over at Rivals.com. I'll be working as an intern and partly taking some basketball reins for Michigan Preps, the Michigan division of the network. Anyone who reads the college blogs over here, I look forward to sharing whatever knowledge I acquire over there and make sure everyone's getting some love.

No one can be watching everything at once, which is why we're here; we want a collective set of great eyes to tell us what's going on, particularly in the fantasy community. In trying to answer some of the most pressing fantasy baseball-related questions regarding the 2009 MLB season, I brought in a really good set of eyes. Enter Alex Eisenberg, the man in charge of Baseball-Intellect.com. Alex scouts the guys (mostly prospects) that we eventually bid up in our auction drafts, and breaks them down in a technical aspect. While he also diagnoses guys in the Show, I asked him to sit down and take a deep look into why some guys produced the way they did. Part II of this interview, which focuses more on some prospects and their outlook for next year, will be coming shortly. Enjoy.

TROR: B.J. Upton was someone who Tampa Bay counted on a great deal to lead off originally and then struggled even as he was moved down to the bottom of the order. The shoulder injury was the original diagnosis for his struggle, but what do you think plagued him this year?

Alex: I can't put my finger on why Upton struggled so much. I remember seeing pitches Upton used to drive out of the park in 2007, die at the warning track this year. I've looked at his swing and there are some changes to the action of his front leg, but I'm not sure how much of an effect it would have on his power output. That might be an article for the future, but right now it's a bit of a mystery to me. I'll say this: His swing isn't that power-oriented and his 2007 season was largely a flukish sort of year for him. However, his natural progression should have counteracted a return to the norm in his numbers, but that hasn't happened.

TROR: On the subject of the Rays, David Price struggled when he was called up this year, but settled down and posted respectable numbers, if not what we expected necessarily from him. Do you think the ceiling for him has lowered?

Alex: Price's upside hasn't changed for me. He improved as the year progressed...his command still needs work as does his change-up, but his peripherals were strong for the most part across the board. So he's still a potential No. 1 starter though he's more likely to be a No. 2 simply because of the sheer difficulty in becoming a true No. 1 guy...but the potential is there.

(More after The Jump)

TROR: A lot of fantasy owners (myself included) have anticipated that Alex Gordon was going to take the leap and become what the Royals and a lot of scouts predicted. After returning from his extended absence and posting a respectable line in September, where do you see him in terms of his contribution in 2010?

Alex: I think I see Gordon as an above average regular. He's young enough that he's still a potential breakout candidate and he hasn't reached his peak yet...I'm not sure why he's struggled at the MLB level. Injuries, trouble hitting lefties, trouble with the breaking ball...he's always had a propensity to strike out a lot. I wish I had a better answer for you. I think it's something we'll just have wait-and-see on.

TROR: They're just a month apart in terms of age and on the same team, but Brett Anderson outperformed Trevor Cahill this year. Does Anderson have the better upside both short-term and long-term?

Alex: Brett Anderson for me. They were neck and neck prior to last season. But Anderson really set himself apart. Anderson's velocity increased again (he used to be 87 - 89 in high school, it jumped to around 90 - 94 in the minors and at the start of the year and then he started hitting 92 - 96, even touching 97 at a couple points last year). There was a subtle change in his mechanics...I haven't put my finger on it yet, but the timing looks better and the arm action looks better; something looked like it just clicked for him. He has a deep repertoire of pitches and he commands all of them well. Not to mention Anderson's feel for pitching is excellent. I think he has a tremendous future.

As for Cahill, we know he has problems with command. He also had a problem missing bats. What was strange for me is that in his start for Team USA last year, I saw a four-seamer that the stadium gun clocked at 97 and then at 96. The action on the pitch was different from his two-seam fastball and I didn't see that pitch much if at all last year. I'm not sure if he abandoned the pitch or if there was a malfunction with the stadium gun, but it lowered his stock in my eyes.

However, like Anderson, his repertoire of pitches is deep. When it's on, Cahill's sinker is heavy and difficult to lift...in addition, I've felt that Cahill might have that rare ability to limit contact on batted balls...he showed it last year and he's shown it over the course of his minor league career. We still need more data to make that case, however.

Overall, he was rushed to the major league level and still held his own. Also like Anderson, Cahill's velocity increased as the year went on. His upside is still considerable, but it's probably a notch below Anderson's. In addition, he's a higher risk to reach that upside.

TROR: Bronson Arroyo was definitely a Jekyll and Hyde type of pitcher this year. His ERA was the lowest its been in several years and despite a rise in IP, his strikeouts dropped. What's your diagnosis and forecast for him?

Alex: I expect Arroyo to regress next year. He's a workhorse, but it's taken a toll on his arm.

His K's were way down last year and his overall command was worse. His .270 BABIP indicates some good luck as does his LOB% of 76. Hitters made contact at a higher rate than they had in his prior few seasons. I expect his ERA to be somewhere in the 4's next year.

TROR: One of the biggest discussions this year was David Wright's dramatic shift in numbers, most notably a decrease in power and slight regression in K/BB ratio. How much of this do you believe is mental or related to the new stadium, and how much is mechanical?

Alex: I think the park certainly had something to do with his down year. His was better away from Citi Field...not by a huge amount, but by enough where you could consider it a factor.

Not sure if something is up with his mechanics but I'll say that he has changed his mechanics over the years. However, this year's mechanics are not much different from last year's.

A big part of Wright's declines were related to his head injury I believe. If you look at his September, post-concussion numbers....624 OPS, BB% of 7, K% of 30...those numbers really brought his overall numbers down and he said he found himself flinching at balls on the inner half of the plate. Combine that with the extreme pitcher's park he played in, I think that accounts for his down season.

-------------------------

There you have it. Some great insight, and some more definitive opinions on some key players who didn't quite turn out like they were projected. Again, check out Alex's work over at Baseball-Intellect.com, and look out for Part II of the interview real soon.

Rays Name Derek Shelton As New Hitting Coach

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:12:42 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Browse more photos »

Operation fix B.J. Upton has a new general. The Rays announced 39 year-old Derek Shelton will be the teams new hitting coach. Shelton spent the past five seasons in the same position with the Cleveland Indians.

We've been over the quanitfying of positional coaches and really there is no way to do so, but just some numbers that won't appear in the press release below. From 2006-2009, the four full seasons that Shelton was hitting coach, the Indians averaged 86 sacrifice hits; the Rays had 70 in 2009. A normal Shelton coached lineup strikes out around 19% of the time and walks around 9%. This is pretty much in line with what the Rays have done recently. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how Shelton handles the lineup of free swingers.

Here is the press release from the Rays...

ST. PETERSBURG, FL-The Tampa Bay Rays have named Derek Shelton major league hitting coach. Shelton, 39, spent the last five seasons as hitting coach for the Cleveland Indians.

"Derek has proven himself to be one of the better minds in baseball when it comes to hitting," Rays Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said. "He brings a fresh voice that can help our talented core of hitters reach new heights. His attention to detail and ability to communicate will be great additions to our group."

"I believe he is the kind of coach who can create a hitting program that will benefit the organization both at the minor league and major league levels," said Rays Manager Joe Maddon. "In our conversations, I found that we share the same philosophy on a number of different areas. He was very clear and concise on his intentions and in the end it was an easy decision."

Shelton was named the Indians hitting coach on June 4, 2005, at the age of 34, replacing Hall of Famer Eddie Murray. He remained in that role through the end of 2009. Over his tenure the Indians ranked fifth in the major leagues in runs scored, seventh in batting avg., third in on-base pct., sixth in slugging pct., second in doubles and 10th in home runs. In each of his first four seasons (2005-08), the Indians offense ranked eighth or higher in the majors in runs scored. In 2009 they finished 12th.

Shelton spent seven years with the Indians, also serving as hitting coordinator from 2003-05. Prior to that, he spent six seasons coaching in the New York Yankees organization. He began his coaching career with the GCL Yankees (Rookie) in 1997 and earned promotions to Tampa (A) in 1998 and Norwich (AA) in 1999. He then managed three years for the GCL Yankees (2000-01) and Staten Island (Short-Season A; 2002), leading his clubs to first-place finishes in 2000 and 2001 and league championships in 2001 and 2002.

A former catcher, Shelton played two years (1992-93) in the Yankees organization before an elbow injury ended his career. He graduated from Southern Illinois University with a degree in criminal justice. He resides in Tampa with his wife, Alison, and two children, Jackson and Isabella.

He becomes the sixth hitting coach in club history and the youngest. He follows Steve Henderson (1998, 2006-09), Leon Roberts (1999-2000), Wade Boggs (2001), Milt May (2002) and Lee Elia (2003-05).

Good luck and welcome Derek Shelton

B.J. Upton's Swing Remains the Same

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 10:00:20 -0000

Ballplayers make adjustments all the time. Some shift their necks to get a better look at the ball. Others get contact lenses that contrast the paleness of the baseball from the rest of the color spectrum. Most of the altering goes unnoticed,, only the aesthetic and the changes that fringe near a hot streak are talked about heavily. With that said, apologies ahead of time for making this "one of those" situations, but with all the buzz regarding a new hitting coach's mission to "fix B.J. Upton", let's take a look at Upton's swing.

This is May:

This is October:

Upon viewing the gifs (featured above) one major league scout swooned over Upton's bat speed, calling his quick wrists a "gift" and "beautiful". The scout quickly made note of Upton's front leg in the image from May; predicting the amount of weight placed up front would change in the altered swing. Sure enough, Upton's leg appears stiffer in the most recent clip. He explained that Upton appeared to get his foot down quicker in the second clip as well, potentially allowing for less of the weight transfer to be lost prior to contact with the ball.

Of course sample size concerns run rampant when dealing with two clips that were very much hand-picked for consumption. Jaime Cevallos - mostly known for his work with Ben Zobrist - offered an analysis of his own on Upton's swing. In a five minute video analysis, Cevallos pointed out Upton's lowered swing plane. By doing so, Upton shrinks what Cevallos refers to as "the impact zone", and thus limits his ability to hit for power. The technique preached by Cevallos includes keeping the bat parallel to the plate, thus allowing the batter to increase his chances of squaring the ball up.

Cevallos did note that he is a fan of Upton's front foot movement; a pre-swing maneuver in which Upton essentially points the heel of his foot towards the pitcher's mound, then re-adjusts it inward. This allows him to keep his hips closed, something he seems to have no problem doing. His shoulders, however, are a different story and are the cause for concern in Cevallos' analysis. In contrast to Upton, Cevallos projected images of Ken Griffey Jr. and Ted Williams for comparison. Now obviously most hitters look inferior when compared to a pair of the prettiest swings and greatest hitters of all-time, but Cevallos' point was to show the ability Griffey possesses to change on the fly and Williams' expanded impact zone based on his bat positioning.

The scout agreed, to an extent. "Some guys are in the zone longer than general," he said, "but they have less power if in the zone forever, because that means a level swing without much loft. Either way, you can't see that from the center field angle."

Two things that both agreed on: the swings are basically identical -- only the pitch type and hit direction truly vary -- and Upton's front shoulder flies open through his swing. This flaw, in theory, leaves him vulnerable to pitches away. Hopefully the new hitting coach can help Upton adjust next year and in the process make all this worrying go away.

Special thanks to Sam Page for the gifs and Jaime Cevallos for the in-depth analysis.

Steve Henderson: The Fall Guy for B.J. Upton?

FreeZorilla — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Browse more photos »

Early in the week the Rays' front office and Joe Maddon made the decision to relieve hitting coach Steve Henderson of his duties. The public seems divided into two camps: Those for it and those against it Those who favor the dismissal point to a failure to do small ball activities such as hitting the ball to the right side of the field with a runner on second and putting the ball into play with a runner on third. Critics feel that the Rays high strikeout tendency has caused the team to have a disproportionate amount of low scoring games.

The argument against Henderson's dismissal is the fact that the team set franchise records in runs scored, home runs, walks and on-base percentage this year . The franchise record argument does not mean much as this team has the highest true talent level of any Rays team. I think the real question we should be asking is how did they hit versus their expectations?

I'm not sure I put the "productive out" thing on Henderson's shoulders. Studies have shown that: a) strikeouts generally are not as harmful as their perception and b) sacrifice bunting reduces run the expectancy. There is a compelling argument to be made for allowing hitters to maintain their standard approach in productive out situations. However, the importance of productive outs can increase in close late games. Hitting the ball to the right side of the field is a skill that can be worked on. We don't know if this was supposed to be an area of focus in the past.

Since this is the first time I have heard any member of the Rays publicly acknowledge it. I'm not willing to put much stock in that being the main reason for Hendo's downfall.

So what other arguments can be made for Henderson's departure? I decided to replicate the work previously done on Jim Hickey. For the sake of simplicity, I will only look at wOBA. I am going to look at 2007-2009 and compare three different groups. The first group is players who started with a different team before coming under the direction of Henderson. The second group is players who have gone from the guidance of Henderson to a new hitting coach elsewhere. The third group is the change in player's year over year under Henderson.

For each group we will compare each individual's change in wOBA, look at the mean and median of the changes, look at the number of positive and negative changes, and look at the aggregate change of the group by weighting each player's wOBA by his percentage of the total plate appearances of the group. To qualify, a minimum of 100 plate appearances was needed in each season.

First, players going from Other Hitting Coach ----------à Steve Henderson:

Player	Old team	wOBA	Rays	wOBA	Change
Eric Hinske	2007	0.316	2008	0.347	0.031
Gabe Gross	2007	0.332	2008	0.336	0.004
Cliff Floyd	2007	0.349	2008	0.349	0.000
Jason Bartlett	2007	0.319	2008	0.311	-0.008
Willie Aybar	2007	0.338	2008	0.321	-0.017
Gabe Kapler	2008	0.362	2009	0.334	-0.028
Pat Burrell	2008	0.374	2009	0.304	-0.070
				Mean	-0.013
				Median	-0.010
				Increases	2
				Decreases	4
				AggChange	-0.018

There's nothing extremely telling here. Obviously the 2009 free agent acquisitions underperformed their previous wOBA the worst. That won't sit well with a front office that prides itself on buying low and selling high. Eric Hinske showed the only noticeable improvement of the group. Let's put this small sample of slightly negative data in our pocket and look at the other groups.

Players going from Steve Henderson ------à Another Hitting Coach:

Player	Rays	wOBA	New Team	wOBA	Change
Elijah Dukes	2007	0.309	2008	0.382	0.073
Jonny Gomes	2008	0.301	2009	0.373	0.072
Greg Norton	2007	0.317	2008	0.354	0.037
Ty Wigginton	2007	0.34	2008	0.37	0.030
Delmon Young	2007	0.315	2008	0.324	0.009
Eric Hinske	2008	0.347	2009	0.344	-0.003
Brendan Harris	2007	0.341	2008	0.318	-0.023
				Mean	0.028
				Median	0.029
				Increases	5
				Decreases	2
				AggChange	0.019

Five hitters improved under their new hitting coach, while 2 declined. The four biggest changers all improved. Combined with the last group we know that 9 players fared better away from Henderson, while 4 did the opposite. The aggregate change was consistent across both groups at -.0185 with Henderson.

Finally, Henderson Yr 1 ---------------à Henderson Year 2:

Name	wOBA1	Year1	wOBA2	Year2	Change
Ben Zobrist	0.18	2007	0.364	2008	0.184
Jason Bartlett	0.311	2008	0.389	2009	0.078
Dioner Navarro	0.28	2007	0.33	2008	0.050
Carl Crawford	0.319	2008	0.367	2009	0.048
Ben Zobrist	0.364	2008	0.408	2009	0.044
Akinori Iwamura	0.323	2008	0.338	2009	0.015
Evan Longoria	0.373	2008	0.38	2009	0.007
Willy Aybar	0.321	2008	0.328	2009	0.007
Carlos Pena	0.374	2008	0.374	2009	0.000
Akinori Iwamura	0.338	2007	0.323	2008	-0.015
Gabe Gross	0.336	2008	0.306	2009	-0.030
B.J. Upton	0.387	2007	0.354	2008	-0.033
Jonny Gomes	0.339	2007	0.301	2008	-0.038
B.J. Upton	0.354	2008	0.31	2009	-0.044
Carl Crawford	0.365	2007	0.319	2008	-0.046
Carlos Pena	0.43	2007	0.374	2008	-0.056
Dioner Navarro	0.33	2008	0.258	2009	-0.072
				Mean	0.006
				Median	0.003
				Increases	8
				Decreases	8
				AggChange	-0.006

A pretty even split. What stands out here is the two time year/year decline of B.J. Upton. Who knows if there were issues between Henderson and Upton? Regardless, if you're the Rays and you have three more years of a cost controlled B.J. Upton (who still has all the potential in the world), why not get a fresh examination of the underacheiving, sky-is-the-limit talent of B.J. Upton?

On his Twitter account Keith Law may have put it best when he described the firing as " ...Operation Fix BJ Upton". The stakes with Upton are too high to not try every possible option, including a new hitting coach. While the above tables are not a clear indication of the need to replace Henderson, there is even less-to-no evidence to mandate keeping him. The patterns are this: Old Rays have fared slightly better with new teams, new Rays have fared slightly worse, and current Rays have stayed nearly static. In the absence of any compelling argument to keep Henderson, two consecutive years of -.030+ drops in wOBA from B.J. Upton is probably enough to warrant the change.

The (Not so) Big Bossman (Jr.): Graph of the Day

Walter Fulbright — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 07:32:16 -0000

In 2007 and 2008, Upton posted wOBA’s of .387 and .354, respectively. This year, that mark has plummeted to just .298. Among batters taking at least 500 trips to the plate, Upton has the fourth-worst wOBA in the game. Only light-swinging middle infielders Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein and Orlando Cabrera have provided less value with the lumber. Per Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive production), Upton has gone from +27.2 runs above average in 2007 and +15.3 in ‘08 to a wheezing -13.2 in 2009.

"What's with B.J. Upton?" Fangraphs, Sep. 20, 2009

I'm really not sure if any of you heard about this, but B.J. Upton hit for the cycle. It was the first cycle in all forty-four minutes of the Rays history.

Let's quickly break down said history. The first act of their history was a team with a mission ... to make the best expansion draft selection in Major League history (some guy named Bobby Abreu), and then to immediately trade him to the Phillies for practically nothing.

The second involved, of course, the Hit Parade (McGriff, Canseco, Castilla, and Vaughn), who were roughly a combined 250 years old, giving up Randy Winn in a trade for the right to negotiate with a manager (Lou Piniella, of course, in probably the single worst trade of the last 50 years that didn't involve simply cash), and that thrilling 4th place finish (one of two times they didn't finish last, the other being 2008).

Then of course, the music swells, and the underdog begins to turn it around, starting with the fleecing of the Mets in the Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir trade. It's easy to keep track of what act you're in - just look for a corresponding uniform / team nickname change. Of course, it culminated with the emergence of the stars of their show: Carl Crawford, the aforementioned Kazmir, the tragic hero Rocco Baldelli, the renegade executive Stuart Sternberg, and the two kids who were sure to follow and set the world on fire: Delmon Young (the talented but unfocused hothead), and B.J. Upton. They figured the nucleus of talent would help them compete. It did. And B.J. was a star.

Has it really only been a year since B.J. found his place among the best centerfielders in the league? Does it feel like he's 30 to anyone else? Just how badly have those combination ankle / shoulder injuries slowed him down? Were the home runs two seasons ago and the Beltan impression in last year's playoffs a fluke?

In order: Yes, Your call, A lot, and To some degree. The ankle issue is interesting. The baserunning DVC score is way down from last year (when he would have been a 71), but the fielding score is almost exactly the same, both in percentile rank and UZR (10.3 to 10.5). The shoulder is probably telling us the real difficulty at the plate (despite a weird increase in LD%). And the decreased walk percentage on a team that doesn't preach aggression at the plate is probably a sign of a known hole (or abyss) in his current swing that is covering a good deal of the strike zone. As little fun as it is to say this - we're going to have to wait until 2010 to know for sure. But players don't usually show non speed related skills before the age of 27 that magically disappear in their mid 20s (non Mark Teahen division).

One thing, no actually two things are for certain: The cycle is still a silly and arbitrary way of allocating praise. And 2009, injury-free or not, will more likely be remembered as the year that B.J.'s younger brother Justin Upton surpassed him. And likely their two places will never be reversed again.

Data Visualization: Justin Bopp | Data Collection: Justin Bopp & Walter Fulbright | Data Source: Fangraphs.com, BaseballProspectus.com, Baseballreference.com