SB Nation - Carlos Pena

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

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The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

An Interview With Jonah Keri

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:00:15 -0000

In continuing our series of interviews with people in and around the game of baseball we're joined by friend of the site and sports writing vagabond extraordinaire, Jonah Keri. We talk about Crawford, Bradley, instant replay, the financial state of the game, and two young LOOGYS on the rise. Enjoy.

EH: Lets kick this off with the $64,000 question. Crawford and the Rays, what happens?

JK: Depends on how the Rays fare in 2010, I imagine. If they fall out of the race early, I can't imagine Crawford's not traded. If they're in it, oddly, that might be the time to push for a possible contract extension.

Figure the order of most to least desirable outcomes goes like this:
Rays contend all year, re-sign Crawford at a discount.
Rays fall out of contention, trade him for a package like Kazmir's or better, with a mix of 0-to-3 guys and prospects.
Rays let Crawford walk, collect compensatory draft picks - DRaysBay has done a good job of noting that picks are no sure thing (i.e. you might not sign the guy) and that they're not cheap.

I doubt they trade him this off-season.

EH: Crawford is obviously the hot button issue of the winter, but asTommy brought up last week, Carlos Pena is another name who could be moved before the end of next season. How do you see the first base situation shaking out?

JK: Every Rays fan loves Los, between his great production and his winning personality. But it's hard not to love, say, Los fetching a B+ prospect and a power RP with 0-to-3 years of service time. If they can land a deal like that, then turn around and sign, say, Russell Branyan or Nick Johnson to a short-term deal for less money, that has to considered. If I had to guess, though, I'd say the Rays keep Crawford and Pena and Bartlett for now, even though an argument could be made to trade any one of them. You can't overstate how much that Kazmir trade helped the budget.

EH: Jayson Stark recently wrote an article proposing that MLB implement a minimum salary threshold where a team would tax 20% for every dollar they were under it after the first year. What are your thoughts on this idea? Could something like that realistically work?

JK: Words cannot express how much I dislike a salary floor idea. So what, the Rays would have to sign Russ Springer to a five-year extension now to get over the minimum threshold? If MLB is so concerned about owners who pocket revenue sharing proceeds instead of reinvesting in the team (cough Jeffrey Loria), they should do a better job of vetting ownership candidates. You think Mark Cuban would run a $25 million payroll every year if he took over a team, even a small-market team? No chance.

Beyond that, the smartest revenue sharing recipients would do well to funnel those funds into areas like scouting, drafting and player development, since the most valuable assets a major league can have are star players younger than free agency age (and ideally pre-arbitration). It's no surprise that the #1 player on Dave Cameron's MLB Trade Value scale was Evan Longoria, given his combination of talent and contract status.

EH: Stark goes on to say this would be the first step in "fixing a broken system." Yes, some teams spend far more/far less than others, but baseball has been thriving over the last 15 years and has had more different champions than any other major sport in that time period. Is the system really broken?

JK: The system is not broken. You've got five other divisions especially where anything can happen and any team can make the playoffs in a given year, with a reasonable amount of smarts, luck and talent.

If you want to argue that the system is broken, or that the deck is horribly stacked against anyone, you can make that case for the Jays, Orioles and Rays. Though bad geographical luck, those three teams face the toughest challenge of any teams in the major U.S. team sports, going up against the two wealthiest teams in the sport, especially now that the Yankees and Red Sox have the right people running those franchises too. I talk about this at length in the book. The Jays, for instance, might've won one or more division titles under J.P. Ricciardi if they played in a different division. But largely because they play in the AL East (while granting that Ricciardi made some ill-fated moves too, of course), the Jays now have a new GM, and they're trying to reinvent themselves for, what, the third time in a decade?

EH: There was more news this past week about the Rays and their stadium issues. The ABC Coalition came to the conclusion that "if the current stadium isn't replaced in a timely fashion, the Tampa Bay area could lose Major League Baseball." I'd say most of us here at DRB do not have a problem with Tropicana Field. You've been to the stadium and have gotten more familiar with the situation over the past year, where do you stand on this issue?

JK: Well first of all I grew up going to games at Olympic Stadium, so I'm comfortable with a dome environment. There needs to be some acknowledgment of weather here too: The Rays could certainly benefit from a new ballpark, but if they try to build an outdoor facility, that won't end well. Who wants to sit in a stadium with 95-degree weather and 95% humidity half the season - and rain the other half?

Beyond that, the whole stadium saga has been fascinating. I went way back in time in my research, to when the City of St. Petersburg was contemplating building a stadium on spec, in hopes of landing a baseball team. On spec! Can you imagine spending $500 million in today's economy to do that? (Actually they're thinking about spending something like $800 million to do this for an L.A. football team, but no one ever accused California of being a fiscally sound state.) Anyway, there's an amazing history here in terms of everything that happened just to get the Trop built - I highly recommend reading Bob Andelman's book on the subject, "Stadium For Rent". From the looks of things, I imagine the fight won't be any less dramatic this time. And yes, if they don't get a new park -- unless they start a dynasty where they reel off three or four World Series in a row or something -- they will almost certainly need a new park to survive in the Tampa Bay area.

EH: Your friend Rob Neyer has advocated giving the RF job to Desmond Jennings and platooning Matt Joyce at DH with Pat Burrell. I doubt the Rays will go that route- the team will likely supress Jennings' arb. clock as much as possible- but it's an interesting thought. Would that be a better option than leaving Burrell at DH and platooning Joyce with Gabe Kapler in RF?

JK: Well, you allude to Plan C in your next question, which is going out and acquiring Milton Bradley (or generally going a non-Burrell route). Burrell was hurt for most of last season, and I have a hard time believing the gap between the NL and AL is THAT vast that it turned a very good hitter into Rafael Santana. I agree that keeping Jennings' service time clock in check makes sense, and I like the idea of a Joyce/Kapler platoon in right to start the season.

EH: We've heard rumors this off-season about the Rays possibly dealing for Milton Bradley. His past has been well documented, but do you think Bradley would be a good fit for the Rays, on and off the field?

JK: Yes I do. I've been a Bradley fan since way back when he was a Vermont Expo. Even back then, he'd already earned a label as a great talent who was also fiery in his demeanor. Look, the guy's a fierce competitor, probably overcompetitive. But there's also no doubt in my mind that if he was pigmentally challenged, he wouldn't get nearly the bad rap that he does. Put him in the lineup, leave him be, and he'll be fine. If the Rays can resolve the contract situation, Bradley would be a great pickup. He's an absolute on-base machine without a major platoon issue, even in an off year.

EH: You're a big proponent of baseball adopting more uses of instant replay, but that doesn't seem likely with Selig still in office. Realistically, how long do you think it will be until baseball joins the 21st century and uses the advances in technology to improve the quality of the game?

JK: The next time I correctly predict what Bud Selig will do will be the first. I will say you have to look at this the way you would any piece of collective bargaining. I would guess that if Selig pushes for replay, that means he needs to make a concession to umpires. Same way you'd think that stricter drug testing would be a slam dunk, but it requires/required owners to make it palatable for players.

I will say this, though: It's just another in a long list of short-sighted (non-)decisions by the most overrated Commissioner of any major sport who's ever presided during my lifetime. When Bud Selig makes his Hall of Fame speech, I look forward to jeering him with chants of "1994", followed by me breaking down and weeping. Then throwing monkey feces at him.

EH: If you were in charge of the Rays for one day, what changes would you make, roster or otherwise?

JK: I don't presume to have a better grip on how to run the team than the current management team does. These guys are great at what they do. They usually get the big things right -- like the Garza trade -- and the little things right -- like trading for Ben Zobrist for pennies on the dollar. And that's the thing about good decision making. Do enough little things right, and just by sheer power of probabilities, one of them could turn into a big score, like finding an MVP candidate who plays 817 positions.

The only moves I can think of right now that would make sense within the framework of the team's revenue stream, talent base and likely payroll would be:

--Make a run at Billy Wagner.

--Make a run at Ryan Doumit.

--Consider the Roy Oswalt start-of-career path for guys like Jake McGee and maybe even Jeremy Hellickson. With guys like Crawford, Pena, Bartlett and Upton about to get expensive or hit free agency, there's a real window for 2010. I'd love to see some of the team's higher-level pitching prospects come in to help the bullpen before later shifting to the starting rotation. It's a great way to gain major league experience and help the team, while still knowing they'll be starters later on (certainly in Hellickson's case). Earl Weaver used to do this all the time. And really, did anyone ever have a better grip on how to run a roster than Earl Weaver?

EH: You're a busy man, what is it that you're currently working on?

JK: I'm hunkering down on the Rays book, plus raising two future millionaire LOOGYs.

As always, a big thanks to Jonah for joining us. You can find Jonah's work at a myriad of publications ranging from The New York Times to Penthouse. Check out his website here, and if you're not already (what's wrong with ya?) follow him on Twitter @jonahkeri

Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

I know the Spiderman joke doesn't entirely make sense other than my insistence on saying Kapler plays the field like a spider on acid ... but his arms here seem to support my theory on Kapler's arachnid nature.

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As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.

Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.

First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:

Player	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%
B.J. Upton	37	27	10	27.03
Evan Longoria	34	23	11	32.35
Jason Bartlett	28	18	10	35.71
*Carl Crawford	27	19	8	29.63
*Carlos Pena	23	12	10	43.48
#Ben Zobrist	22	14	8	36.36
Pat Burrell	21	17	4	19.05
#Dioner Navarro	19	13	6	31.58
*Akinori Iwamura	17	14	3	17.65
#Willy Aybar	15	11	4	26.67
*Gabe Gross	14	9	5	35.71
Gabe Kapler	10	9	1	10

What does this chart tell you? For one, the number of times a runner was on first when a single was hit (1stS), then how many times that runner reached second on the play (1stS2), and how many times they reached third (1stS3). What follows thereafter is a column with the header "Third%". Essentially: the amount of times the runner reached third. Now, keep in mind this is not a perfect metric by any means. Context is important and something that lacks with such a small sample size. There's a real and almost certain chance that the distribution of batted ball degree varies strongly. By that I mean some players - a la Carlos Pena - may have experienced more hard hit balls than others - vis-a-vis Gabe Kapler -- that or smiles are the fuel for legs.

Pena and Gabe Gross really leap off the page. I think if we did a community scouting report on the best and worst baserunners those two might be near the bottom based on speed alone. Meanwhile, Akinori Iwamura would likely be near the top with Kapler, and here he is advancing to third less than Pat Burrell. Upton and Crawford are around a third of the time, which is less than Longoria, Bartlett (I think most would have him top three), Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and pretty close to Willy Aybar. I can't think of a reason why, except that the ability to steal the extra bag leads Tom Foley to hold them on plays deemed too close. The factoid that dismisses that theory is that he literally does it for nobody else if such is the case, and that makes no sense.

Now let's shift gears a bit and look at the situations in which the runner was on first when a double was hit. From there we're seeing whether they scored or reached third - the minimum advancement:

Player	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%
B.J. Upton	6	3	3	50
Evan Longoria	14	11	3	21.43
Jason Bartlett	16	9	7	43.75
*Carl Crawford	10	6	4	40
*Carlos Pena	8	6	2	25
#Ben Zobrist	9	5	4	44.44
Pat Burrell	9	8	1	11.11
#Dioner Navarro	10	8	2	20
*Akinori Iwamura	3	1	2	66.67
#Willy Aybar	7	7	0	0
*Gabe Gross	4	2	2	50
Gabe Kapler	2	2	0	0

Now the sample size is really too small to say with any trace of confidence. Iwamura, Upton, and Bartlett lead the team, while Crawford and Zobrist aren't too shabby either. Guys like Navarro, Aybar, Pena, and Burrell are low on the totem pole as well. Nothing else stands out.

Our final situation involves the runner being on second when a single is hit and whether they scored or not:

Player	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
B.J. Upton	20	7	12	60
Evan Longoria	15	5	10	66.67
Jason Bartlett	22	12	10	45.45
*Carl Crawford	24	3	20	83.33
*Carlos Pena	15	6	9	60
#Ben Zobrist	18	6	11	61.11
Pat Burrell	9	6	3	33.33
#Dioner Navarro	9	2	7	77.77
*Akinori Iwamura	18	8	9	50
#Willy Aybar	2	1	1	50
*Gabe Gross	11	9	1	9.09
Gabe Kapler	9	4	3	33.33

So here's where the speed wins out. Crawford is fantastic. Longoria, Upton, and Zobrist are good. Navarro morphs into a rollie pollie when needed, and Gabe Gross is atrocious at it. I would've expected Bartlett to be higher, but them's the breaks.

What does all of this mean? Well, if you use Dan Fox's EQBR metric - by the way, he's now in the Pittsburgh front office - then unsurprisingly Crawford and Bartlett rate well, and .... Gabe Kapler is the worst baserunner on the team by nearly two full runs.

For all the (deserved) talk about Kapler's headiness and managerial experience, is he really the worst baserunner on the team? This seems counter intuitive on multiple levels. Kapler's body type resembles that of a safety more than a linebacker or defensive end. He appears to have quick feet. He doesn't fit the profile of a laggard given his defensive prowess either. So what's going on here?

Well, random fluctuation it appears. I took each of Kapler's individual seasons as a baserunner and ran the same percentages on them. The sexiness of having data dating back over a decade is appealing and great, but do you think 23-year-old Kapler's ability to go second to home tells us much about 33-year-old Kapler's ability? Maybe an extremely small amount, but what we really need to focus on is his last three seasons. Given that managerial break in 2007, we're looking at a period of four years and comparing them to 2009. The inherent small sample size issues get in the way again, but take a look at the contrast that exists:

Time	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
3 Yr	24	19	4	17	9	5	4	44	18	7	10	56
2009	10	9	1	10	2	2	0	0	9	4	3	33

Kapler rated better in each of three categories in the previous seasons. Barring some inside information that I'm not privy to, I'll go ahead and chalk this up to mostly poor luck. If you really wanted to dive into this data pile you could find the league averages and do a Marcels type projection to get super accurate figures, but know this, the gain is minimal. The spread of baseruning talent simply isn't that thick. It results in about a win differential from the worst team to the best. That's nothing to sneeze at and I'm not saying stack your team with nine Pat Burrell types ... unless they get on base at extremely high clips, then yes, stack them up and watch the runs pile up.

Again, many thanks to B-Ref for the data.

What Can Be Learned From the AL MVP Voting?

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

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On Monday afternoon, I fully expect Joe Mauer to win his first MVP award after finishing sixth in 2006 and fourth last year. Joe led the AL in batting average while hitting for respectable power (28 HRs) in only 138 games, most of which were as a catcher. He led the Twins into the postseason after they trailed by three games with only four games left, thereby forcing and winning a playoff game with Detroit.

Other than Mauer winning, I expect Mark Teixeria to finish high in the voting after leading the league in HRs and RBIs (categories that have traditionally been important to voters). I also expect Derek Jeter to finish high even though he doesn't have great traditional stats this season (.334 AVG, 18 HR and 107 runs scored). He did have one of his best years with a 7.4 WAR value, his highest since Fangraphs began keeping track and his third-highest total when compared to Rally's WAR ranking.

Truthfully, I have no problem giving the award to Mauer. He had a great season and helped the Twins to the playoffs. The real question with today's vote, to me anyway, is where do Zack Greinke and Ben Zobrist end up in the rankings?

Using WAR values as a guide, both Zack (9.4 WAR) and Ben (8.6 WAR) had a better season than Joe (8.4 WAR). The problem is that the mainstream media is barely touting if at all Greinke or Zobrist. Going to MLB.com, Zack gets an honorable mention while Ben gets no mention (though four of Ben's teammates got mentioned: Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena). At cbssportsline.com and USAToday.com they have no mention of either Greinke or Zobrist.

Two groups of internet voters have released their results. SBN, our parent website, had a vote and Zack came in sixth overall, while Ben came in second. When the Internet Baseball Awards released their results, Zack came in fourth and Ben came in sixth. I really don't expect either of these players to finish as that high in the final votes with the BBWAA, even though no two players in the AL did more to help their team win games this last season.

Let's look at how Zack and Ben final voting placement can say something about the makeup and thought process of the BBWAA.

Zack Greinke - Do pitchers even matter in the MVP voting?

Here is a little background on how pitchers have done in the MVP voting:

Since 1956, when the Cy Young Award was created, a pitcher has won the MVP Award 8 times or 8% percent of the time. Before the Cy Young was created, pitchers won the award about 1 in 5 times (19%).
The last pitcher to win the MVP was Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
Since 1992, the average final position for the top pitcher vote getter is 8.4, with Pedro Martinez about winning the award in 1999 by finishing with only 3% less vote than Ivan Rodriguez.

There is not much precedent for MVP voters voting for pitchers, especially ones with 16-8 records. The average finish of the top pitcher in the MVP voting has been between the 8th and 9th spot, so this makes a good dividing line to see if the writers noticed Zack's great season (despite the horrible defense and run support he had all season). Zack had the 31st highest ranked season ever in ERA+ with 205, which is the highest total since 2003 when Pedro Martinez finished with an ERA+ of 210.

If Zack finishes eighth or higher, hats off to the voters. If ninth or lower, shame on voters.

Ben Zobrist - Do name familiarity and defense matter in the MVP voting?

Before the season, many people were familiar with the final MVP candidates, but few were familiar with Ben, and the few that knew of him didn't expect great production. Offensively, his 2009 season was nothing to laugh about (9th in the AL in Runs Created), but his defense is where he separated himself from the others for the top WAR values for positional players. He had a UZR rating of 26.4 which was good for 2nd best among all position players in the AL.

The question is, "Will any of this production really matter." Even though the Internet voters gave Ben quite a bit of love, I can see the BBWAA giving him a cold shoulder. I would be surprised to see him break the top 10. I really want to see the percentage of voters that put him in their top 5. This will give a nice understanding of the percentage of voters that look at and use WAR (or similar metrics) to compare players. If the percentage of voters that put Ben in the top 5 is above 10%, I will be amazingly surprised.

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The award season for MLB is a nice time to look back at the the players that had a great season. The problem is that sometimes players that should receive recognition don't.

Should The Rays Trade Carlos Pena?

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:00:16 -0000

One of the larger topics this offseason has centered on what to do with Carl Crawford. Now that the Rays have picked up his $10 million dollar option they are left with a couple scenarios: trading him now, trading him later, signing him to an extension, or let him walk and take the compensatory pick(s). While CC is and will remain the hot topic for the unforeseeable future, I have been wondering about the Rays other $10 million dollar man, Carlos Pena.

Honestly, I try and to not play favorites, but how can you not when it comes to Carlos Pena? Nevertheless, I've come to the realization that maybe in addition to Crawford, it's time to explore the possibility of a Pena move. Of course, one isn't really reliant on the other and both, one, or none of them could be traded anyway.

Obligatory disclaimer: This is merely speculation. The Rays haven't said they are actively shopping Pena.

First, let's look at the most important fact; Pena will make $10.25 million dollars in 2010. This makes him the team's highest paid player. However, in terms of WAR, he was narrowly the seventh best Rays player this past season. If you want to make the argument that his season was cut short due to injury, Pena was not cracking the top five for the Rays regardless of a full season. This doesn't mean he wasn't valuable; a 2.6 WAR is worth $11.9 million dollars and Pena made $8 million, but the Rays highest paid player shouldn't be their fifth, sixth or seventh best player on the team.

Pena's three-year WAR average has him at a 4.2. If he is able to produce that at $10 million dollars then that is a bargain, but that average is also heavily skewed by his 6.2 WAR in the 2007 season. After posting a 3.8 in 2008, Pena was again down to 2.6 in 2009.

Offensively, there is little doubt that Pena can, and will, still mash. The player friendly projection of Bill James has him slugging .498 in 2010 and I think that may be a bit on the low side. It's the other portions of Pena's game that had me worried. While the Power remains, his patience at the plate and his sharp batting eye have wandered slightly the past few seasons.

After posting a lovely 17.4% walk rate in 2007, Pena's BB% has declined in the past few seasons. Coinciding with the decline in walks is an increase in strikeouts, and not surprisingly an increase in swings on pitches out of the zone.

	BB%	K%	O-Swing%
2007	17.4	29	19.8
2008	16.4	33.9	20.8
2009	15.6	34.6	23.6

Walking 15% of the time is still pretty good, but the K's are at an all time high. Even though we know this is part of his game, it's still not a trend you want to see.

Defensively, Pena had a pretty rough season finishing with a UZR of -4.6. However, his three year average is ever so slightly above average at 0.4. Odds are he will be right at average or slightly below in the field next year, unless 2009 was just the beginning of a defensive avalanche.

Beyond the high salary and some production concerns, there are also the compensation issue. Trading Pena won't net the same type of return as Crawford and nobody should expect such a thing. However, for a team who's looking for power, can accept a few flaws, and afford the price tag, Pena is very attractive option even if it's for a one year rental. I'm not going to speculate on a return, but I'm guessing the Rays could do pretty well in any potential deal.

What I do want to look at is the return if Pena is retained and then walks at the end of the season. According to Eddie Bajek's Elias Projections, Carlos Pena is a type B free agent. Remember, this is based on his 2008 and 2009 seasons. When/if Pena hits the market next season, his compensation will be based on 2009 and 2010. Usually players who have declined over a three-year period while getting older don't improve from one season to the next, however, there are always exceptions. Nonetheless, a Type-A ranking for first basemen doesn't come easy; none of the 2009 free agent first basemen have Type-A status and only Mark Teixiera earned it in 2008.

I have no idea how the Elias rankings are created, but over the two years before he hit free agency, Teixeira averaged a slash line of .307/.406/.557 with nearly 32 home runs. Over the last two seasons, Pena has averaged .237/.367/.515 with 35 bombs. I'm going to assume that to obtain a Type-A status, Pena's going to need to regain his 2007 form and then some, which is unlikely. What's more than likely to happen is Pena will retain Type-B status and his former team will receive a supplemental pick instead of the potential two picks a Type-A would.

This raises another issue. Getting draft picks for potential free agents is not necessarily a good thing for the Rays. Sure, adding young talent is always welcomed, but even late first round picks cost money (see LeVon Washington). The Rays already have four high picks in next year's draft. If they aren't able to sign all four they will receive an addittional compensatory pick(s) in 2011. This will be in addition to their regular pick and any potential picks received from free agents with "type" status( Crawford, Pena, etc.). That could end up as a lot of money for unproven talent; or on a few picks not wasted, per se, but picks not maximized due to budget restrictions.

Once more, Pena is still a good player and even at $10 million dollars should still provide value, but for a Rays team looking to cut corners in places to improve others, a look in his direction is smart business. Replacing Pena wouldn't be easy, but it wouldn't be as hard as say, replacing a Carl Crawford.

For example, Russell Branyan is a free agent. Coming off a 2.8 WAR season, Branyan could give you similar production for probably half the cost. Branyan is also looking for a two-year deal, so he may not be ideal. The Rays could go the platoon route and find a dance partner for Willy Aybar. Another former Ray, Eric Hinske could work well with Aybar. Or the Rays could go the unconventional route and move Ben Zobrist to first allowing Sean Rodriguez to get the bulk of the time at second base. I could go on rosterbating, but you get the point.

There are the intangibles: leadership, smile%, pre-game dances, and between pitch mound meetings, but in terms of things we can measure, exploring a deal involving Pena seems prudent for a team that is constantly working around the big payroll elephant in the room.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 AL Dynasty/Keeper 1B rankings

Ian, yo — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 22:14:53 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

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Now it's time for the top keepers/dynasty first basemen.

1. Miguel Cabrera- In his first full season in the American League, Miggy put up numbers pretty consistent with his past numbers. Cabrera is still very young and can have many many more years with these types of numbers. Currently ranking 4th on the ESPN player rater and top five overall in Yahoo leagues, Cabrera and his high average, 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI's should be a very consistent 1B for you in the future.

2. Mark Teixeira- Pretty much in the same boat as Cabrera, Teixeira is one of the most consistent players in fantasy baseball. He's widely known for being a slow starter and heats up later in the year but if you're playing in H2H leagues, he's what you're looking for. Currently hitting .292 with 37 HR and 118 RBI, and hitting in the Yankee jetstream, Teixiera could easily move to the top of this list.

3. Justin Morneau- Morneau was shut down near the end of the season with a stress fracture in his lower back and managed to put up a season rivaling other power first basemen in the AL. If you're looking for a consistent player to give you power numbers, he can be your guy. Coming off the injury could drop his value a bit in the offseason so if you plan on trading him, make sure you're getting fair value (healthy value.)

4. Kevin Youkilis- Youk missed a little time this season and still put up stats close to the players after him in this list. If Youk can have a full healthy season, we're looking at a season with a little less power than Teixeira and Cabrera, but should put up RBIs, runs and average. If you're in leagues that count OBP or OPS, Youk will be a straight up stud, putting up a .900+ OPS in his last two seasons.

5. Kendry Morales- Morales had a break out year in his first season as the Angel's 1B keeping with the 30/100 theme here. Morales is 2/7 in stolen base attempts and while playing on the Angels, you probably won't see those attempts go away next year. Maybe if you're lucky he grab you a few more steals, but those will just come as a bonus anyways.

6. Carlos Pena- This is the guy on this list that may get me the most criticism. I'm a huge fan of Pena and think he's very underrated by most based on his low average alone. Now, if Pena didn't miss the last month of the season, you could be looking at a 100/40/100 guy. On the surface, his .227 average is pretty horrendous, but if you check into his BABIP, you'll notice he had a season where he was a bit lower than his career number. Not that it would make a whole world of difference, you've gotta keep it in mind. Next year, Pena could fall in the draft because of his average, but if you can get three solid categories from your 1B, take it and be happy. Just try and draft someone who can give you a bit of an average boost in later rounds. Also, if your league counts OBP or OPS, Pena is your man.

7. Victor Martinez- V-Mart is a strong candidate to win the MLB Comeback Player of the Year in 2009. Martinez has put up numbers comparable to his previous seasons (minus his injury ridden 2008 season.) Martinez will have catcher eligibility again in 2010, but would still be a very valuable 1B in AL only leagues. While Martinez has hit only one home run in Fenway Park, he will be playing many games in Yankee Stadium (where he's hit four home runs in 37 ABs.) and in an offense as potent as Boston's, should remain a very good fantasy producer.

8. Michael Cuddyer- With Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young struggling in Minnesota, Cuddyer's put up a career year. While he's only hit 20 or more home runs one in his career (discounting 2009) he did hit 24 in 2006 and has shown the ability to hit for power. If you're looking for a guy who can get you anywhere from 20-30 HR and not kill you on average, Cuddyer is your man.

9. Billy Butler- Butler is finally having that breakout season everyone's been hoping for. Butler is only 23 years old and has put up a 20 home run, 90+ RBI season while hitting .300 on a poor offense. If Butler keeps improving as he's done over the last three years, we could be seeing another Victor Martinez, with less RBI's of course.

10. Paul Konerko- I was debating on whether or not to have Russell Branyan or Konerko as the last man on this list and decided that since Branyan is a free agent and has missed significant time with a back injury, I'd have Konerko round the list out. While Konerko is not nearly as successful as he was in his prime, he's still putting up close to 30 home runs with a decent RBI total and average. Konerko's BB% has dropped compared to the last two years, so if he makes a correction, we could be looking at even better numbers. Just keep in mind that he's 33 years old and will turn 34 before the 2010 season.

Introducing DiamondView Composite Player Evaluation

Justin Bopp — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:13:02 -0000

The DiamondView Composite Graph tells you everything you need to know about the a batter's strength and weaknesses.

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The last great goal of 20th Century science which continues to this day has been the pursuit of a unified theory of everything that somehow ties quantum mechanics in with particle physics. At least that's my Discovery Channel version. Regardless, I'm not sure how the great minds of our time are coming along on that.

It is much the same for those that pursue the great art of baseball math, Sabermetrics. Infinitely more humble, no doubt, but the relentless pursuit for a unified stat remains there all the same. One magical number that JoeFan can look at and say, "Yes, Tony Pena Jr. is the 278th best player in the Major Leagues that qualifies for a batting title."

Well, this is not that. Rather than attempt a unified stat, which many have tried, I was inspired the other day by Tommy Bennett (BtB Contributor) to come up with and design a visual way of looking at the big picture for batters. I think we might have something here.

(more)

Development

The first step was to determine what represents the overall view of a batter. Fairly simple, just from a 5-tools perspective. Hitting, Power, Base-Running (skills and speed), Throwing, and Fielding.

The second step was to determine which stats we have that best reflect those tenets of baseball lore. On Base Percentage (OBP) makes sense for hitting, of course, as does Isolated Slugging (ISO) for power. For base-running, we can use EqBRR, which is currently the best measure. For fielding and throwing, we'll use Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR/150). All told, we lowered it down to four stats but will have to deal with some wonky stuff for catchers and DHs and what not.

Processing

For charting purposes, Walter and I determined the best course of action was to adjust each chosen stat to a percentage of the current best player in that stat. The best score in that particular stat would result in a 100%, and everybody below would rank accordingly. Each player should have his 4 stats adjusted to a percentage of the current stat leader.

Now, some problems arise from this method, which are currently being sorted out. The first is that certain stats are dominated so thoroughly by a single person, like Pujols and ISO, that his 100% puts the next-best person at 85%. The best solution for this is to set the percentages to a bell curve to properly represent the spread of talent in the MLB.

An additional issue with this current method is exactly where to set the zero. One player, Adam Dunn, is such a bad fielder that our initial calculation netted a -27%! This looks hilarious in graph form, but may not be very useful.

The Fun Part

All that being said, with an acknowledgement for opportunity to improve the results for a more representative output, I present to you the DiamondView Composite Player Evaluation. It's a visual representation of the current best 4 stats we have for batters. For presentation purposes, we chose batters at or near the top of particular stats to show exactly how effective this view is for quickly determining a player's strength's and weaknesses. It's really quite amazing when you see it coming together.

In that vein, I wanted OBP Power Guy, low-avg power guy, slappy-hitter/stolen base guy, and the high-defense utility fielder guy. Our current results are a first run, so feel free to help us through the growing pains with suggestions. Take a look:

Bobby Abreu is a classic On-Base guy that can't really hit for power and may be a liability in the field.

What can be said about the Donkey, Adam Dunn, that hasn't already been said? This shows you exactly what he is.

This is probably my favorite one. Carlos Pena, when he hits it, hits it HARD.

There is something to be said for Defense and smart base running (and Michael Bourn's lights out speed).

Ahem. Albert, you're messing up my graphs.

Ben Zobrist's several positions played at a high quality gave us this wonky result.

Let us know what you think.

**It's here that I should note how important Walter Fulbright has been to this and every article that I write here. What little ability I have for making charts is comparatively worthless for the toddler-in-the-ocean I am with Sabermetrics. I try, but simply cannot do it alone. If you have a chance, please acknowledge where you can that it is only with his statistical analysis that most of this is possible. Thank you, Walter.

American League Home Run Chase 2009 - Graph of the Day

Justin Bopp — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:03:35 -0000

With Carlos Pena out for the season with two broken fingers, can Mark Teixeira take the AL Home Run Crown? Does Jason Bay make a run, or does Russell Branyan complete his unlikely season and put some distance in between himself and Nelson Cruz?

Full chart available HERE.

Poll

Who will take the AL Home Run Crown?

Carlos Pena (out for season)

28 votes

Mark Teixeira

184 votes

Jason Bay

6 votes

Russell Branyan

7 votes

Nelson Cruz

8 votes

Somebody else

4 votes

237 votes | Poll has closed

Why The 2009 Rays Failed to Reach the Playoffs: The Run Scoring

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 01:06:18 -0000

by Bill Kostroun - AP

The offense sometimes sleeps.

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Beginning with this post, I'm going to take a look at a few reasons why this year's team failed to reach expectations. This is for detailed information and a catharsis exercise in order to bury 2009 and prepare us for the off-season. Let's begin with the run scoring.

The Rays are fourth in the American League in runs scored per game with 5.07. American League average is 4.83 which is a difference of 0.24 runs per game or 39 runs over a full season. I took every one of the above average AL teams from this season and figured out how many games they scored below their average. The numbers are startling.

Team	R/G	%G < *
NYY	5.75	55.71
BOS	5.58	55.47
LAA	5.29	55.07
TB	5.07	61.15
CLE	4.97	47.1
TEX	4.92	47.83
MIN	4.86	52.17
TOR	4.84	50

You'll note that most of the other teams are pretty much confined within plateaus. The Rays are distant from the pack. Add in the below average American League offenses and you get these figures:

DET	4.64	56.2
BAL	4.58	55.07
CHW	4.56	57.86
OAK	4.55	52.9
KCR	4.06	60.87
SEA	3.97	48.2

Given that only Kansas City rivals the Rays percentage, this seems like nothing but random variance. Further, while some will claim this is a skill - and be sure that I believe offensive variance is not one - last year's unit averaged 4.78 runs per game and scored less than 4 runs in 52% of its games.

Most are more than unwilling to accept that luck and randomness plays such a huge role in the success of a baseball team or player. With such, I have to admit there are a few reasons as to why I can see this offense sputtering more than expected, but not quite more than the rest of the league. The reasons are as follows:

Ineffective leadoff hitting

450 plate appearances from Upton netted an on-base percentage of .317. Even if the number two hitter reaches base, the chances of scoring a run are dramatically lowered with one batter already out. Upton represented the second worst hitter and yet he was the leadoff man for a majority of the year. The decision to drop him may have came too late, just as the decision to place him at the top may have been too hasty, but the idea was about as failsafe of a concept as the Rays lineup possessed. It didn't work out this year, hopefully it does next year.

Constant lineup altering based on cold/hot streaks

For a while Carlos Pena was batting in the lower half of the lineup against right-handed pitching. This is absolutely inexcusable and reeks of short-sightedness. Pena mashes righties like nobody else in the lineup, over the last three seasons Pena hit righties at a .236/.369/.567 clip while faring decently against lefties with a .211/.332/.482 line. Yet, for whatever reason, Pena was moved down in mid-to-late July and would fluctuate the rest of the season from the six to the four slot depending on what the dice landed on. Obviously Maddon had no hesitations moving him up and down on a daily basis at this point, but wouldn't do the same for platoon affects?

Another unexplainable move was Evan Longoria batting sixth for a few weeks. Yes he struggled; no you don't move players down because of it. Maddon damn well knows Longoria is one of his best hitters. What does demoting him in the order accomplish? Theoretically it takes pressure off Longoria to perform or the demotion pisses him off, causing him to press even more.

Seemingly inefficient lineup usage

Ben Zobrist has walked 16% of the time to date. I believe most people were aware Zobrist's .600+ slugging percentage was too good to be true, but his key talent has always, always been his ability to draw walks. Maybe his true talent level for walks isn't quite 16%, maybe the figure is more like 12% moving forward. Nonetheless, Zobrist has fewer than 60 at-bats in the top three slots this season. Now Carl is probably a lock as is Evan - or he should be at I suppose - but Zobrist never even gained consideration for leading off. Why? Beats me.

Neither Gabe seemed to get upper lineup preference either, and instead were usually stuck in the bottom third. This seems silly considering Kapler's domination of left-handers and Pena's relative struggles. I'm not saying flip the two, I'm saying Kapler batting eighth is less than ideal.

Underperformers in key spots

I've addressed the leadoff struggles of Upton. Pat Burrell was either on the DL or on the DL for most of the season. Dioner Navarro was possibly the worst catcher in the major leagues. Otherwise, the Rays saw one massive overachiever and three underachievers. Luck plays into this category heavily and given past performances it's hard to blame anyone for not dropping Upton or Burrell at an earlier date.

Next up: defense.

---

(Numbers used are dated before 9/9's game.)

Just Call Him Average Willy Aybar

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:00:19 -0000

by Reinhold Matay - AP

6 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Willy Aybar reacts after crossing the plate following a solo home run in the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels in St. Petersburg, Fla., Wednesday, June 10, 2009. The Rays won 9-5. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

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Less than 12 months ago Willy Aybar was crowned by Dave Cameron, as well as many others, the BBIMLB or the best backup in Major League Baseball. And who could really argue with that. At the time Aybar was 25 and coming off a 2008 season in which he hit .253/.327/.410 in 362 PA. He was worth a 1.4 WAR and his production was valued at $6.3 million dollars while earning near league minimum.

Defensively, he filled in admirably at first base when Carlos Pena broke his hand after he was hit by a pitch (Pattern? Trend? ), and then did the same across the diamond at third when Evan Longoria also broke a bone in his arm on a HBP. He even played well in limited time at second base which led some to think out loud about him replacing Akinori Iwamura full-time after this season.

Flash forward to present day and Aybar is no longer regarded at the BBIMLB. In fact, some "casual fans," as Stu Sternberg would say, have even called for Aybar's head. Offensively, Aybar remains steady and has hit .252/.338/.420 in 261 PA. He continues to hit left handed pitching well to the tune of .244/.351/.476. However, it's the defense that has people up in arms about the man acquired for Jeff Ridgway.

Whether you look at the above average numbers of 2008 or the below average numbers of 2009, remember they are both small sample sizes.

2008	G	Innings	UZR	UZR/150
1B	19	155	2.3	19
2B	10	70.2	0.5	11.4
3B	41	358.1	2.4	8.1

2009	G	Innings	UZR	UZR/150
1B	11	66	-0.1	-1.7
2B	28	139.1	-3.8	-22.9
3B	15	105	-1.1	-7.9

To get a better understanding, here are his career numbers. Still small sample, but larger compared to the individual seasons

Career	G	Innings	UZR	UZR/150
1B	30	221	2.1	13.2
2B	59	331.2	-1.7	-5.2
3B	137	1093	-0.9	-1

The sample size at third base is almost a full season and Aybar is slightly below average at the hot corner. This leads me to believe that the numbers at first base are probably a good indication of his talent level on that side of the diamond since it is the easier of the two. While the second base sample is still small, the addition of Sean Rodriguez and the emergence of Ben Zobrist makes the Aybar at second base talks unnecessary. Sure, he can still fill in short increments at the keystone, but there's no need to give him extended time given the other (better) options available.

Despite better offensive numbers, Aybar's spotty defense has his WAR at 0.2 this season. With the injury to Pena, I would expect him to get some more burn at first base to end the season. Assuming he will play average defense and hit like he has, he will probably end the season being worth $1.0-1.5 million. With a salary of $975k, Aybar remains a valuable asset. In 2010, his salary jumps to $1.35 million. If Aybar is worth a 0.5-1.0 WAR in 2010, he'll cover that easily. Assuming his experimentation at second base is over and he sticks to playing the corner infield, his defense should not be an issue going forward.

No longer is Aybar baseball's best kept secret. Once Sean Rodriguez gets called up, he most likely won't even be the team's best bench player anymore. But don't be fooled, he is still valuable. TThere is a chance that Gabe Gross won't be around next season. Should that happen, Aybar will gain another distinction; the most average player on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.