SB Nation - Delmon Young

Saturday Morning Breakfast & Baseball: to non-tender or not to non-tender?

Jesse — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 11:47:07 -0000

The non-tender deadline is tonight, at 11pm CST.

Over the course of the last couple of months, as we realized of just how large the Twins' 2010 payroll could be, we've speculated as to whether Minnesota would non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players in order to skim a few million off the top. Boof Bonser, who actually rejected a one-year offer from the Twins not too long ago, seemed to be the first casualty during the Winter Meetings.

But now, Bill Smith tells Kelsie Smith (no relation, I'm sure), something very interesting:

"There will be limitations, but our ownership has set out what we think are certainly substantial funds to get our club ready for the start of the season."

I'm reading this in two possible ways.

Ownership has cleared funds "substantial" enough to ensure guys like Jesse Crain, Brendan Harris and Delmon Young aren't non-tendered.
Growing your payroll nearly $30 million dollars from Opening Day 2009 to Opening Day 2010 constitutes "substantial" funds.

Now if you want to lean toward option one, which is very intriguing and quite news-worthy if actually the case, then my question is this: just exactly how much more is in the piggy bank? As we've discussed before, keeping these guys in the fold on top of what's already in-house means a roughly $90 million dollar payroll. Is it possible there's still room to add to what's already far-and-away a franchise-record payroll?

But if you want to lean toward option two, which actually might be a little more realistic if you read the rest of Kelsie's article, then for some guys (Crain, Harris and Young in particular) the game is still on. The moves the Twins have already made make for a significant increase in payroll, and it's not like [Bill] Smith is coming out and making the meaning of "substantial funds" clear.

And then there's still the issue of Joe Mauer's extension, which I still believe with 100% certainty will be done before spring training begins. If that scenario follows suit with the standard procedure that most extensions follow, then Joe will be playing for more dollars in 2010 than he's currently slated for. So even if "substantial" means that there is still cash in the kitty, is there enough for money for Mauer on top of those arbitration-eligible players?

The good news is that we won't have to wait long to find out. We'll have all of our answers by 11pm CST tonight.

Poll

Does anyone get non-tendered by the deadline tonight?

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Wednesday: Kouzmanoff, Perkins, Quinlan

Jesse — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:58:29 -0000

5:25 pm - This from ESPN's Jayson Stark: the Padres are making a hard push to move Kouzmanoff.

5:20 pm - HAPPY BIRTHDAY JON MARTHALER!

4:25 pm - Ummm....get this...Rich Harden? Yeah. He's signing with the Texas Rangers.

That's kind of a double-whammy for the Mariners, isn't it? Bit of a shock, for sure.

3:50 pm - More Olney: Rich Harden is on the verge of signing with...someone? No news on who. What are the chances that the mystery team is the Twins? Right now the rotation is probably guaranteed in four of five spots, but this would be a huge signing for Minnesota with big-time repurcussions.

What say you? Is it even possible? Rumor has it that the Mariners have been hot on his trail, but it could be someone else...

2:55 pm - Buster Olney tweets that the Twins and Padres "have had several discussions about Kevin Kouzmanoff".

2:45 pm - Kelsie Smith tweets that that the Twins' talks with Mark DeRosa's agent were "preliminary".

1:35 pm - A quiet afternoon for the Twins so far, but Ken Rosenthal tweets that LaTroy Hawkins will be pitching for the Brewers next year. Flame on, LaTroy!

10:50 am - Some highlights from LEN III's morning update, I suggest you pop over for a gander...

The Twins met with DeRosa's agent yesterday. Neal admits that DeRosa's been rumored to be asking for three years and $27 million, but also believes that a wave of non-tenders this weekend could drive down prices.
The agents for Pedro Feliz? They're getting the silent treatment. Can you just see Bill Smith, Rob Antony and company whistling and looking the other way as Feliz's agents walk by in the lobby?
Nothing is imminent with Quinlan.
This is surprising: the Twins tried to sign Boof to a one-year deal recently and were turned down. Looks like it was either one or the other, and we know how that story turns out.

9:40 am - Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes rounds up the speculation over who Minnesota's likely third base targets are. He mentions the usuals: Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Felipe Lopez. And then he adds another one...Juan Uribe. Out of all of those players, the last one I would want would be Uribe.

Adding Joe Crede and Kevin Kouzmanoff to that list, and now we finally have a solid group of players to speculate on. Out of those six, who do you prefer?

7:15 am - A couple things I've read this morning...

First, "talks with Joe Crede are progressing slowly" with the Twins. That's interesting. I would have thought the Twins might try something else before going back to Crede, but perhaps they're just trying to keep their foot in the door.

LEN III in his late-late-late edition last night also said the Twins have interest in Mark DeRosa. Now, this isn't necessarily a surprise, but it's the first we've heard his name tied to the Twins this week.

6:50 am - Wrapping up the last two days before we get into what could be a very interesting day 3...

1. Carl Pavano accepted arbitration. The number people seem to be throwing out there is $7 million, although if the Twins sign him for two years they might be able to get away with $5 million per.

2. The biggest tidbit to come out of Tuesday involved the Twins and Padres discussing a Glen Perkins/Kevin Kouzmanoff swap. San Diego rejected the one-for-one deal, as they're looking for more. The Padres also were linked by Kouz to the Giants yesterday, but once again were looking for more than San Francisco's initial offer.

3. Speaking of the Giants, it sounds like they're shying away from Dan Uggla. The Orioles remain interested, but what about the Twins?

4. The sad news from yesterday: Boof Bonser was designated for assignment. I'm confident he'll sign on with somebody, and be able to contribute in 2010.

5. The Twins are also rumored to be interested in utility man Robb Quinlan, probably as a fourth outfielder.

6. There were a lot of rumors yesterday evening about three teams (one being the Cubs) and a number of players (one being Milton Bradley). A report from earlier in the evening said one team was a "surprise" American League club. Would the Twins be interested in moving Delmon Young in order to fit Bradley? How would you feel about a Michael Cuddyer/Denard Span/Milton Bradley outfield?

7. As we continue to discuss the Winter Meetings at length on the main page, don't forget to vote for the next top prospect! Every day Roger (in conjunction with Seth Stohs) is asking you: who is the next best prospect? If you haven't yet, head over to the FanPosts and vote on yesterday's ballot, and be sure to make your voice heard this afternoon on the next one.

8. Last but certainly not least, be sure to check out our own Jon Marthaler on Seth's podcast!

GM Meetings Day 2: Open Thread

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:34:55 -0000

Check back periodically for updates...

4:00 pm: Afternoon updates from Joe C.

Congrats to Joe Mauer, who wins his second Gold Glove. Well deserved.
Apparently the GM's are expected to discuss intant replay? I had no idea. At any rate it hasn't been discussed yet.
Bonser, Neshek and Slowey have been reinstated from the 60-day DL.
Joe promises more tonight.

12:45 pm: Some news from around the league

It sounds like Jason Varitek will pick up his part of the option to stay with the Red Sox, which will be a favor to teams across the American League if he continues to hit like he has the last two seasons. Which he probably will. In related news, Tim Wakefield is never going to stop pitching. NEVER.
If the Twins want to put together a package for Roy Halladay to really make a run with an Ace in hand for 2010, it will have to be a package of "quality over quantity". Sorry, Cmath.
Lunch time trade question: would you trade Jesse Crain and Delmon Young to the Royals for David DeJesus? Is it a realistic scenario?

9:30 am: Catching up on the highlights from yesterday

• Carl Pavano wouldn’t mind sticking with the Twins as long as the money is right. Quotes from his agent, Tom O’Connell, imply that Pavano won’t settle for another contract asking for his client to re-establish himself. If he’d still be willing to take an incentive-laden contract at a reasonable price (say something like one year, $5 million with $500K for reaching 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings) with an option for a second year, I’d do that. He’s a Type-B free agent, but I’m not sure he’d make more than that taking the arbitration route (which the Twins are sure to offer).
• Twins General Manager Bill Smith has mentioned there will be interest in free agent starting pitchers during the off-season. I have to believe that only three spots (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey) are locked down.
• It sounds like Ron Gardenhire wouldn’t mind bringin back Orlando Cabrera as the team’s second baseman next season, but it seems highly unlikely the front office would follow through on that.
• The Orioles claimed Armando Gabino off waivers.
• Justin Huber cleared waivers, paving the way for his possible return to Rochester (or the Twins) in 2010.
• Juan Morillo has been added to the 40-man roster, bringing the current tally to 33 (not including 60-day DL guys Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey, or impending free agents Ron Mahay, Mike Redmond, Joe Crede, Pavano and Cabrera).
• Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors has posted his yearly series where he guesses where the top 50 free agents will end up. He thinks Adrian Beltre (number nine on his list) will end up in Minnesota.
• Before the Twins snapped up J.J. Hardy, a number of other teams had been in contact with the Brewers, including the Red Sox, Reds and Blue Jays.

Revisiting the Matt Garza/Delmon Young Deal Once More

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

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Speaking of that Delmon Young deal...

With knowledge comes responsibility to review the past. If Wile E. Coyote learns that the Road Runner can detect dynamite from distances expanding the blast radius, this changes his perspective on what he should've done. Selecting David Price over Matt Wieters was fine with my 2007 self - ace potential woo! Evan Longoria instead of Tim Lincecum was okay too - grotesque deliveries always scare folks away. Once you learn that not all deliveries ranging from the mean are going to result in injury or that hitters are more safe than pitchers you develop a different viewpoint than the old one you held. It is in this state of reflection that the Delmon deal resurfaces.

Back then it was pretty well established that Young was a brat. He moped, he essentially accused Joe Maddon of playing favorites, and he segregated the clubhouse in a better manner than he could ever segregate balls from strikes. The Young deal came in surreal fashion. For weeks the rumors were stirring but still, trading Delmon Young? Now, the Rays got Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan in return and that looked good and all - and the performance since have done nothing to sway such predeterminations - but trading five years of a young corner outfielder with remarkable potential for six years of a starting pitcher with remarkable potential is pretty damn risky.

As noted, Young had character and developmental issues. He was 21-years-old and basking in the winter glory of appearing in all 162 games and hitting 13 home runs with 38 doubles. Through 812 plate appearances Young had 16 home runs and a .738 OPS. Defensively he took questionable routes, but all was forgotten when Young would pull the trigger on his right arm and catch runners foolish enough to advance on practically any batted ball towards right field.

In a season with Rookie of the Year award expectations Young was unimpressive in most regards, a stellar contrast to his brief symposium the year prior in which Young hit a home run in his first game and would gun down Ichiro Suzuki attempting to take third base on a single in his fourth game. Success was expected in large part because of Young's minor league track record. In about 600 plate appearances Young terrorized A-ball pitching with a .322/.388/.538 line. He moved on to hit AA just as well at .336/.386/.582. In Triple-A he would struggle as a 20-year-old, batting only .304/.326/.463, but the potential for so much more existed.

Garza himself had struggled in brief major league exposure. His 4.47 ERA and seven strikeouts per nine were not quite what one expected from a flamethrower. With so many talented arms in the Rays system maybe this wasn't the best of ideas after all. If that seems like analysis pulled from the shallow end of the pool then, well, it is.

In protest of becoming a lecture on recent history, we know that positional players are more valuable than pitchers, and we know that they progress on a more-linear path. These two combinations loaded the Rays portion of the deal with a landmine in the form of Garza's right arm. Remember that nerve issue Garza encountered early in the 2008 season? Yeah, neither do most people, but if the injury turns out more serious, how different do we view this deal?

Credit the front office for feeling confident and comfortable in their analysis of Young's potential and likelihood to reach said potential. Perhaps the intimacy in which the Rays experienced Young's work ethic drove the proverbial stake into Young's coffin. Was there a crippling fear that Young would wake up after his trade and make an effort to improve his skills? Who knows? Nobody can predict the future, instead people can make the best projections based on what knowledge is available at the time. In this case the Rays nailed it by assuming Young would continue his lifelong pursuit towards becoming the real life Donatello - pizza-exclusive diet included.

As of today, Garza has made 62 starts for the Rays which incredibly ranks him eleventh in franchise history. With two starts next season Garza will surpass Wilson Alvarez and Edwin Jackson, with four he moves beyond Tanyon Sturtze, and over a full 30 starts Garza's name will be above the late Joe Kennedy, above Andy Sonnanstine (assuming Sonnanstine makes at least 10 fewer starts than Garza), and higher than Mark Hendrickson, Bryan Rekar, and Ryan Rupe. All of that movement would place Garza third in franchise history.

That collection of names is rather unimpressive and entirely telling at once. It seems foolhardy to anoint someone two seasons into their career as one of the nth best pitchers in franchise history, but under the circumstances there is a strong case to be made that Garza is indeed the third best starter. Remarkably the comparison made to John Smoltz, Steve Avery, and Tom Glavine has come true for the Rays triumvirate of young starters. While Kazmir is doing his best to avoid the new-world Avery tag, Shields and Garza figure to lead the Rays rotation for years to come.

That ideology leads to a contract extension discussion. Garza is youthful with post-season experience and the characteristics of a fine major league pitcher. He throws a heavy, hard fastball with ride and an assortment of complimentary breaking pitches which have combined for streaks of offensive celibacy unrivaled on staff. At one point Garza went on a 10-game run where he struck out 8.4 per nine and walked only 2.5. Garza walked a few more over the rest of the season (3.5 per nine) which is a shame, because 8.4/2.5 joins company with Josh Beckett and Josh Johnson - two of the finer pitchers in baseball.

Garza's xFIP was 4.43 last season, a career best. That's better than a lot of pitchers who get more acclaim. Better than former Ray Edwin Jackson, better than Rick Porcello, better than Scott Baker and Andy Pettitte, Jair Jurrjens, Mark Buehrle, and numerous others. Garza may or may not eventually ascend to the throne in the kingdom of Aceland, but he's pretty good.

That being said, long-term deals for pitchers are always risky. The natural attrition rate and unpredictability means it takes a pretty special talent or contract construction to make it worthwhile. The Rays have seen both sides of that card with Kazmir and Shields. The former was a top arm who fell apart far too quickly while the latter has one of the more failsafe deals in baseball.

Ubaldo Jimenez' deal seems like a template for a Garza deal, although you could argue Ubaldo is a better pitcher and that Garza should get less than 4/10 (Note: Both had comparable inning totals through these seasons):

xFIP	Garza	Jimenez
2007	4.52	4.54
2008	4.58	4.34
2009	4.43	3.64

I don't know whether Garza will get an extension or not, but my hope is when we reflect on the deal down the road it will lead us to the conclusion that the Rays were right once more.

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

Walkoff Bomb, Extra Innings, Clutch Hitting, Dramatic Comeback: Yankees do it the Yankee way in 4-3 win

CrazyYankeeChick — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 02:44:45 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Teixeira's ~~walk-off~~ skip-off long ball gives Yanks a 4-3 victory and a 2-0 ALDS lead

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I cannot believe what the hell just happened.

My hands are still shaking.

My heart may or may not be fighting the good fight against certain cardiac arrest.

I feel my head could pop off my body, either from light-headedness or excitement or sensory overload (because, ya know. That's the normal consequence...)

The Yankees just beat the Twins in 11 innings, off the bat of Mark Teixeira--his first walkoff in pinstripes, the Yankees' 11th postseason walkoff.

You know how this recap started? At 9:08pm I sat down at my desk and wrote the following:

I had forgotten what this feels like. I hated watching other teams play in the postseason last year. I was so jealous. And now I remember how miserable it is. It's only one loss, but I feel like I lost a limb. I can’t go out, I can’t eat, I can’t sleep. I just want to curl up in a ball until Sunday comes.

Now? Well, the prospect of recapping the last 5 hours of my life is a little more palatable right now:

A.J. Burnett’s postseason debut was a stellar coming-out party, as he dealt his standard array of filthy sliders and slurves and gas and whatever other permutation of pitches he could come up with to get the outs. And of course treated up to his standard array of wildness, which we’ve now come to accept as part of "Good AJ Dealing" Deal.

Over 6 innings of 3-hit ball, he blanked 6, and let up 1 run when on Brendan Harris’s triple drove in Delmon Young.

Down 1-0 in the 6th with only their third baserunner of the game on 2nd, Alex Rodriguez delivers his 2nd clutch hit in as many games. My buddy texts me: "I don't think I can handle a clutch ARod tonight." Apparently, I wasn't the only one ill-prepared in terms of proper head-to-neck adhesion.

At this point in the game, you're looking at it like it's your basic nailbiter pitcher's duel, and the fact that it's a postseason match makes it that much more impressively exciting. Amazing. Little did any of us know that in a few hours, the tied score in the 7th would be the least compelling timeframe.

For all the talk about CC Sabathia, ARod, and Burnett being galactic liabilities in the clutch, none of us, and I mean NO ONE, considered for even a second that our stumbles would arise with Phil Hughes on the mound. It's like when I took my road test and practiced parallel parking for the weeks prior. I dominated that part, and then ended up failing on account of going 50 in a school zone, not wearing my seatbelt, going the wrong way in a one-way street, and running a stop sign.

In 0.2 innings of "work," Hughes walked 1, and let up 2 runs on 2 hits, with all occuring on 2 outs. The golden child who redefined the value of the 8th-inning-setup all season long...put the Yankees in a 3-1 hole heading into the bottom of the 8th.

Our other relievers were effective to varying degrees, Phil Coke and Joba Chamberlain pitched to 4 batters between them, ceding zero runs. So when the game is handed over to Hughes then quickly snatched back to give to Mariano Rivera, you know Joba's thinking, "Yep, been there, done that..."

You gotta hand it to the Twins, they manufactured the hell outta baserunners, and off a very formidable pen. Nick Punto and Denard Span hit singles in the 8th to drive in Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris. Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer excelled offensively as expected, and with the team's12 hits on the day, they definitely out-basehitted the Yanks. But for my money, I'd rather be able to manufacture wins, than hits.

Minny also had 12Ks (to the Yanks' 4), which was ultimately their undoing, having left 17 runners and if scoring opportunties were currency, then the Twinks were squandering them away like it was the 15th of the month.

So between Minnesota and New York fans, basically no one is a fan of the Yankees' penchant for getting into jams just so they can work themselves out of it. I mean, I'm just as happy as the next guy to see the bottom of the inning roll around, but I may or may not have spent an abnormal amount of the game getting physically sick from nerves. Forget W.B. Mason, the more fitting corporate sponsor is PeptoBismol.

Then there was the 9th inning, and nothing I could write could ever possibly do justice to what ARod accomplished. He already had the only RBI of the game, and after Tex singled to reach first, ARod launched a bomb off supercloser Joe Nathan into the Yankee bullpen. It didn't just tie the game, it sent a message and it infuriated his critics...because there's no denying his postseason performance.

The only people more aggravated than Twink fans right now are anti-ARod activists who have been spending the last hour in an emergency summit meeting, where they've locked themselves in a conference room to brainstorm ways to dilute ARod's performance in the the clutch. Hope they stocked up on Starbucks.

So now we got a whole new ballgame. Tied at 3 and heading into extras, and I can't speak for other Yank fans, but when the Yanks come back at home, I never expect them to lose. I'm always a little surprised to some extent when they can't close it out. And the fact that the Twins weren't rolling over and dying in these late innings of play, was making me increasingly panicky. "Oh my God. They could take the lead. Right now. Jesus."

I get nervous with pickoff attempts, so when Damaso Marte put 2 runners on in the top of the 11th with no outs, I lost about 17 years of my life. Once again, newly rehabilitated David Robertson gets the call to pull his team out of a mess of a situation. Every time you think you've seen the most unbelievable element of the game, the Yankees reset the bar at another ridiculous plateau. No runs scored with the bases loaded and zero outs.

I didn't even have time to process this absurdity before Tex goes yard in front of over 50,000 in attendance at the Bronx. And sweet Christ, that ball left in a hurry. Sterling didn't even have time to build any suspense. It was, "Line drive down the left field line...and IT IS GONE!!!"

The Twins are now overfeated against the Yanks, having lost the 9 straight to them--their 4th of the walkoff persuasion. My Mets-fan friend with an evidenced death wish spent the better part of the game either gloating at Yanks' setbacks, or vehemently affirming that the game is fixed and the Yanks were only where they were because of the umps.

Hey, if you can't score 1 run with bases loaded and no outs, you got bigger fish to fry than questionable officiating. On Wednesday, when CC clearly whiffed Orlando Cabrera, but he was charged with a walk, and 2 runs scored when the inning shouldn't have even been going on. Blame the umps as much as you want, but it all evens out in the end.

On Sunday, the Yanks and Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16) will face their old friend Carl Pavano (14-12, 5.10), who has won nearly twice as many starts in 1 year with the Indians/Twins as he did in 3 years with the Yankees. It'd be nice to thank him for his years of service with a sweep.

Congratulations, Yankees, on reminding the world who they're up against. And thank you, ghosts, for springing for postseason tickets. In the words of Frank, "If you can make it here, you'll make it anywhere. It's up to you, New York, Newww Yorkkkk."

-CYC

The (Not so) Big Bossman (Jr.): Graph of the Day

Walter Fulbright — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 07:32:16 -0000

In 2007 and 2008, Upton posted wOBA’s of .387 and .354, respectively. This year, that mark has plummeted to just .298. Among batters taking at least 500 trips to the plate, Upton has the fourth-worst wOBA in the game. Only light-swinging middle infielders Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein and Orlando Cabrera have provided less value with the lumber. Per Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive production), Upton has gone from +27.2 runs above average in 2007 and +15.3 in ‘08 to a wheezing -13.2 in 2009.

"What's with B.J. Upton?" Fangraphs, Sep. 20, 2009

I'm really not sure if any of you heard about this, but B.J. Upton hit for the cycle. It was the first cycle in all forty-four minutes of the Rays history.

Let's quickly break down said history. The first act of their history was a team with a mission ... to make the best expansion draft selection in Major League history (some guy named Bobby Abreu), and then to immediately trade him to the Phillies for practically nothing.

The second involved, of course, the Hit Parade (McGriff, Canseco, Castilla, and Vaughn), who were roughly a combined 250 years old, giving up Randy Winn in a trade for the right to negotiate with a manager (Lou Piniella, of course, in probably the single worst trade of the last 50 years that didn't involve simply cash), and that thrilling 4th place finish (one of two times they didn't finish last, the other being 2008).

Then of course, the music swells, and the underdog begins to turn it around, starting with the fleecing of the Mets in the Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir trade. It's easy to keep track of what act you're in - just look for a corresponding uniform / team nickname change. Of course, it culminated with the emergence of the stars of their show: Carl Crawford, the aforementioned Kazmir, the tragic hero Rocco Baldelli, the renegade executive Stuart Sternberg, and the two kids who were sure to follow and set the world on fire: Delmon Young (the talented but unfocused hothead), and B.J. Upton. They figured the nucleus of talent would help them compete. It did. And B.J. was a star.

Has it really only been a year since B.J. found his place among the best centerfielders in the league? Does it feel like he's 30 to anyone else? Just how badly have those combination ankle / shoulder injuries slowed him down? Were the home runs two seasons ago and the Beltan impression in last year's playoffs a fluke?

In order: Yes, Your call, A lot, and To some degree. The ankle issue is interesting. The baserunning DVC score is way down from last year (when he would have been a 71), but the fielding score is almost exactly the same, both in percentile rank and UZR (10.3 to 10.5). The shoulder is probably telling us the real difficulty at the plate (despite a weird increase in LD%). And the decreased walk percentage on a team that doesn't preach aggression at the plate is probably a sign of a known hole (or abyss) in his current swing that is covering a good deal of the strike zone. As little fun as it is to say this - we're going to have to wait until 2010 to know for sure. But players don't usually show non speed related skills before the age of 27 that magically disappear in their mid 20s (non Mark Teahen division).

One thing, no actually two things are for certain: The cycle is still a silly and arbitrary way of allocating praise. And 2009, injury-free or not, will more likely be remembered as the year that B.J.'s younger brother Justin Upton surpassed him. And likely their two places will never be reversed again.

Data Visualization: Justin Bopp | Data Collection: Justin Bopp & Walter Fulbright | Data Source: Fangraphs.com, BaseballProspectus.com, Baseballreference.com

Twins Hammer and Homer Royals for the Sweep: Bring On the Tigers!

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:23:49 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel doffs his helmet to the crowd after his second three-run home run of the game off Kansas City Royals' Luke Hochevar in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009 in Minneapolis, while Denard Span makes fun of his beard. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 13, Royals 4

Do you hear that? Can you still hear it? It's the reverb from the cacophony of noise created by fans at the Dome. Why, you may ask?

Because we just forced game 163.

"BOOM!" said Jason Kubel.

"BOOM!" said Delmon Young.

"BOOM!" said Kubel, again.

"Ditto," said Delmon.

As the Detroit Tigers hung on to salvage one game from the Chicago White Sox this afternoon, the Twins were busy putting the hurt on the Kansas City Royals. It was 7-0 at the end of the third inning, with six of those runs crossing the plate stuck in Kubel's beard; a pair of three-run jacks lifted Jason to one of the best days of his career in a crucial game.

Young went deep twice of his own accord, solo shots that, "just enough" or not, certainly did the trick. His second blast put the Twins up 8-1 going into the sixth, and the game looked like it was on ice. But oh yeah, we were facing the Royals, and they have just as much fight as the Twins. Sadly for them they don't have the talent to match, but for one half of an inning, things were interesting.

Carl Pavano started on three days rest this afternoon, and he looked good. Working out of a second and third with one out situation in the second inning, he made a statement about exactly what kind of a pitcher he can be when he bears down. He worked John Buck out-in-out-in-in to induce a shallow fly-out to center that couldn't score a run, and then quickly sent down Alex Gordon as well. It was a microcosm of the game for the Royals: try as they might, it wasn't going to be good enough.

Pavano pitched around a Luis Hernandez leadoff double in the third before allowing a run in the fourth off back-to-back doubles by Alberto Callaspo and Mark Teahen. He looked strong again the fifth before falling off the table in the aforementioned sixth.

Mike Jacobs picked up a leadoff single before Callaspo tripled to bring the score to 8-2. Still Pavano battled back, striking out Teahen and inducing a Buck ground-out for out number two. Another run scored, but with the bases empty and the bullpen spare he attacked Alex Gordon.

"BOOM!", said Gordon. 8-4, hook for Pavano, enter Bobby Keppel.

Quick, ask me which pitcher I don't want to see in a game.

Keppel lasted six pitches, delivering five fastballs down the middle of the plate and a slider in the dirt. The Royals continued to jab with the left, trying to inch closer before coming in with a strong right. With runners on the corners and still just the two outs that Pavano managed, Ron Gardenhire went to Ron Mahay in order to get lefty Mitch Maier.

Mahay hit Maier.

Bases loaded, down by four and with Billy Butler at the dish, this game suddenly didn't look like such a sure shot. Gardenhire power walked to the mound for the third time that inning, stuck two fingers up Mahay's nose, pulled down, said "Get outta here you knucklehead" and then poked Mahay in the eyes. Out came Jon Rauch.

Big, surly Jon Rauch. The Jon Rauch whose tattoo changes color depending on his mood. I think it's like a mood tattoo, and today it was green. Whatever green means, it didn't bode well for the Royals. Rauch dusted in and out with a couple of breaking balls, and then attacked the outer half with two consecutive fastballs, the second of which Butler just stood and watched without flinching. Strike three, good sir.

From there things got considerably easier. In the bottom half of the sixth Denard Span walked, and then scored on an Orlando Cabrera double down the left field line. After Kubel singled in the seventh, Carlos Gomez replaced him on the bases and later scored on a Matt Tolbert (TOL-BEAR!!) double into right. In the bottom half of the eighth Span singled, and then scored on a Cabrera double down the left field line. Yes, again. Oh, and one more thing.

"BOOM!" said Cuddyer. With authori-tah.

Astoundingly the Royals actually out-hit the Twins 12-11, with the difference being that A) the Twins walked seven times and B) the Twins out-homered the Royals 5-1. That kind of thing usually makes it very easy to win.

Brian Duensing, Jesse Crain and Francisco Liriano dusted off the final three innings without allowing a run, and at the end of the afternoon the Twins had done the unbelieveable: they'd swept the Royals, and earned themselves a shot at the division title.

While the White Sox couldn't complete the miracle, it hardly seems to matter. Minnesota was written off for dead, not just by most of the baseball world but by many of their own fans. And you know what? I don't blame anyone. I don't harbor any hard feelings toward anyone for looking at the mathematical probabilities on Friday morning and saying "nope". But it was't over then, and it's not over now.

Tuesday afternoon at four the Tigers come to town to defend a crown that should be theirs. There will be no pressure on the Twins in this game--they're "not supposed" to even be there. For the second year in a row the Twins have to play game 163 to decide whether or not they are the AL Central champions, to decide whether or not they earn the right to play post-season baseball. This time the game is being played where it should be played: in the comforts of Dome.

The season plays on for at least one more glorious afternoon of baseball. And we get once last shot under the teflon sky. Are you excited? Because you sure as hell should be.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, .071 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (5.2 IP on three days rest, 8 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 R, .096 WPA)
#1: Jason Kubel (3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R, .257 WPA)

Mauer's MVP Beats Greinke's Cy Young, Twins Stave Off Comeback

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 00:12:08 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel, left, Michael Cuddyer, center and Joe Mauer, right, celebrate after scoring on a three-run double by Delmon Young off Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke in the sixth inning of a baseball game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, in Minneapolis. It was the final series in the Metrodome. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 5, Royals 4

There are no shortages of heroes in Minnesota tonight. A four-run sixth disappeared, but today the Twins weren't going to be denied.

For five and a half innings, Zack Greinke and Nick Blackburn traded zeros. The game's first hit didn't even come until Orlando Cabrera led off the bottom of the fourth, but for more than half of the contest it was a beautiful pitcher's duel. Stressful? Yes. But beautiful.

The Twins finally drew blood in the bottom of the sixth. Nick Punto drew an eight-pitch walk off Greinke to lead off the frame, before Denard "ideal leadoff guy" Span dropped down a made-to-order bunt on the first pitch he saw. With LNP standing on second base, Greinke's pitches began to sit high in the zone. He managed to get Cabrera to ground out to third base, but he wasn't able to keep Punto from advancing. With two out and the game still knotted at zero, up stepped Joe Mauer.

Greinke tried to bust Mauer up and in twice, with Joe taking atypical chances and taking cuts on them both and fouling them off. A pair of sliders just under the strike zone followed, leading to a 1-2 count before Greinke tried to come up and in with another fastball. This time, Joe did exactly what he meant to. He pulled it through the right side, and Punto finally scored to give the Twins a 1-0 lead.

Then the Royals ace came off the rails, just a little bit. Jason Kubel took an outer-half fastball and shot it down the left field line, for a moment saving Greinke from a run as it hit the turf and then bounced over the fence, keeping Mauer on third base. Then he hit Michael Cuddyer with a 94-mph fastball. For the third time in two days, the Royals loaded the bases for Delmon Young.

Maybe Greinke was feeling confident. Maybe he just didn't locate the ball where he wanted it to go. Maybe he and Miguel Olivo were over-thinking their strategy. For whatever reason, Greinke served Delmon a 95-mph first-pitch fastball somewhere between the letters and the belly button, and as everyone's favorite play-by-play guy likes to say, he didn't miss it. Young went the other way, dropping the ball into right field, clearing the bases to give the Twins a 4-0 lead.

Kansas City stuck with their man, even after Jose Morales singled on the next pitch. Even Matt Tolbert swung at the first pitch he saw, and he hit it hard. But this time the ball was blind, and Minnesota's rally came to and end. So did Greinke's afternoon.

A Mike Jacobs homer in the top of the seventh put Kansas City on the board, but it was the eighth that, if you were watching or listening or at this game, should have put the fear of the baseball gods right into you. Olivo led it off with a double, signaling the end of Blackburn's night. Jose Mijares replaced him, and I'm starting to wonder if he's inside of his own head a bit after throwing at Adam Everett on Thursday. Alex Gordon took the third fastball he saw and deposited it over the right field fence, cutting Minnesota's lead to one. Another single saw Mijares get the hook for Jon Rauch, who did his job one batter too late.

Willie Bloomquist singled, moving something called Tug Hutlett to third with no outs in the inning. Rauch got Mitch Maier to roll into a double play, but it scored the tying run. The Metrodome fell silent, and if you weren't having images of whatever playoff hopes you had crashing down in your subconscious, then I envy you. For a game that looked so well in hand to fall apart so quickly, it didn't look good.

You know who didn't care? You know who said "Get on my back, I have broad shoulders and really big dimples and the bat of a hero"? Michael Cuddyer. The same guy who Greinke nailed two innings prior watched a pair of pitches miss the zone before he decided to take a chance. Dusty Hughes threw a changeup, as straight as it could possibly be, right over the plate at about Cuddyer's knees. Cuddles turned on it, and lauched it into the home run porch in left field. He breathed life back into the season, into the team, and into the fans.

Joe Nathan struck out a pair in a perfect ninth inning to pick up save number 47, and once again the Minnesota Twins have won. It's not over yet, kids. No matter what happens tonight, tomorrow matters. And if by some miracle the Tigers lose tonight, tomorrow matters even more.

Holy crap. Can they do this?

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI, .154 WPA)
#2: Nick Blackburn (7+ IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB, .305 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-3, HR, RBI, 2 R, .245 WPA)

Cy Young Race Update

Jeff — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 22:36:34 -0000

After blazing through the first five against Minnesota, Zack Greinke allowed four runs in the bottom of the sixth, with a big bases-loaded double off the bat of Delmon Young. That's good news for Felix. What's bad news for Felix is that the Royals erased the 4-0 deficit, taking Greinke off the hook for the loss, but I'd say that, overall, today helped the King more than it hurt. Greinke will finish at 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA while Felix has a shot at 19-5 with sub-2.50, and while that's just a completely retarded way to determine the best pitcher in the league, it may turn out to be retarded in our favor. Like Bill Leavy and the Steelers.

The 2001 Mariners were the best team in baseball, but the DBacks got the hardware. Felix doesn't deserve this award as much as Greinke does, but should he go on to win it, I think I'll manage.