SB Nation - Jonny Gomes

Sunday a.m. Rangers stuff

Adam J. Morris — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 17:52:08 -0000

More photos » by Sharon Ellman - AP

3 months ago: Former Dallas Cowboys Troy Aikman, left, and Michael Irvin, right, laugh as they wait to participate in a halftime ceremony during the Cowboys' NFL football game against the New York Giants, Sunday, Sept. 20, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Sharon Ellman)

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Very impressive win last night for the Cowboys, who definitely showed up ready to play and quieted the doubters (which included me).

As we discussed last night, Mike Lowell's thumb needs surgery, and the Rangers won't be dealing for him now, which means they are back in the market for a free agent hitter to fill or share the DH role. Jeff Wilson says the Rangers have shown interest in Jermaine Dye, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome, among others.

T.R. Sullivan, though, says that Guerrero wants a two year deal, which the Rangers don't want to do, and Dye doesn't want to be a DH. Troy Glaus, Ryan Garko, Jonny Gomes, and Fernando Tatis are the names I'd like to see the Rangers in on at this point.

Richard Durrett talks to Clint Hurdle about the three areas he wants to focus on with Rangers hitters this year.

Fantasy Baseball: Profiling Yesterday's Non-Tenders

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Yesterday was the last day that teams could offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and there were some interesting non-tenders for sure. Let's take a look:

Matt Capp, CL, PITT

The Pirates will now go into spring training looking for a closer, unless they veer off course and sign a free agent like Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, or Kevin Gregg. They also could dangle Andy Laroche in a deal for a closer since they traded for Akinori Iwamura to play second base. That assumes that Pedro Alvarez wins the Pirates 3B job out of spring training, otherwise Laroche will be the Pirates 3Bman. Here is what MLB.com said about the Pirates closer situation:

In the meantime, the Pirates now have even more work to do to construct a bullpen that had already lost Jesse Chavez in an offseason trade. One thing the Pirates do seem confident in, though, is that their next closer could come in-house, as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are likely to garner consideration for the role.

I don't see either Hanrahan or Meek keeping the job. Capps Is coming off his worst year of his career as he ended the year with a 5.80 ERA. Could the Phillies take a chance on Capps to backup Lidge?

Jonny Gomes, OF, CIN

Gomes is coming off a season where he went 20-51-.267-.338-.541-.879. Gomes could be a nice pickup for a team that wants to platoon his vs. left-handed pitchers as he hit .307-.369-.545-.914 against lefties in 2009. In his career, Gomes has hit .274-.369-.517-.885 vs lefties.

it appears the Reds will go into spring training with an open competition in LF with Wladimir Balentein, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier vying for the spot.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL

Johnson is coming off a down year where he lost the second base job to Martin Prado in Atlanta. He went 8-29-7-.229-.303-.389-.692 in 2009 after going 12-69-11-.287-.349-.446-.795 in 2008. Johnson's BABIP in 2009 was a very low .247, much lower than his career BABIP average of .311. There were some positives in his 2009 season, as he lowered his K% from 18.4% to 15.6% and increased his BB% from 8.5% to 9.3%.

Johnson could be a nice sleeper in 2009 should he land a second base job. If he can bring his BABIP close to .300 and continue to show improved plate discipline, he could have another season like he did in 2008. Do you hear me Ned?

Poll

Which player has a better chance at landing a starting job in 2010?

Reds Non-Tender Jonny Gomes

Adam J. Morris — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 23:30:16 -0000

MLB Daily Dish reports that the Cincinnati Reds have non-tendered Jonny Gomes.

I talked about Gomes here, and if I were guessing on who will have a more productive year offensively in 2010, Gomes or Mike Lowell, I'd go with Gomes.

Lowell would presumably be better defensively at first base than Gomes, and Gomes can't play third base, but Lowell appears to be slated to primarily DH anyway if he comes to Texas. Lowell appears to have been targeted in large part because of his leadership, experience on a world champion, intangibles, and the like...but in terms of performance, there doesn't seem to be much difference between Gomes and Lowell, and Gomes is almost certainly going to end up making less than the $3 million the Rangers appear prepared to pay Lowell next year.

Reds non-tender Jonny Gomes

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 22:45:11 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

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In a relatively surprising move, the Reds decided to non-tender outfielder Jonny Gomes. While the move is relatively small in the baseball world, Gomes had a pretty solid year with the Reds, posting numbers comparable to his breakout season with the Rays in 2005.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jonny Gomes	98	281	39	75	17	0	20	51	26	85	3	1	.267	.338	.541

Gomes probably won't find a starting job on the open market, but that doesn't mean he can't be an effective bench player.

Gomes hit very well versus lefties, posting a .307 average with a .369 on-base percentage. His power certainly came mostly versus righties, but the ability to get on base consistently versus lefties should entice more teams than his power.

Gomes be an option for the division rival Cubs, who are looking for a more versatile reserve outfielder. The Braves could also pursue the outfielder as back up in case the miss out on finding a corner outfielder.

Trade Target: Maicer Izturis

Slyde — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:19:20 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Is Maicer Izturis the potential answer to the Reds 2010 needs at shortstop?

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Ed Price at MLB Fanhouse is reporting this morning that the Angels could move infielder Maicer Izturis in a deal this off-season. The 29-year old Izturis is a switch-hitter who has played a mix of 2B, SS, and 3B in his big league career and he's played all 3 fairly well defensively. Offensively, he's a career .278/.343/.393 hitter, though his power has been slightly more developed over the last couple of seasons (he slugged .434 in 2009). He shows decent, though not great patience (8.7% career walk rate), but he's only struck out in 11% of his plate appearances. Since we know that he would bat 2nd for the Reds, it's nice to know that he gets on base at a good rate and that he handles the bat pretty well to be able to do the things that Dusty would ask him to do while batting 2nd.

His hitting projections for 2010 look solidly average (only have these two systems for Izturis so far):

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.283	.348	.392	.329
CHONE	.279	.346	.394	.331

Compare that to Paul Janish:

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.223	.301	.319	.276
CHONE	.237	.311	.350	.298
ZiPS	.239	.310	.340

Janish's best projection still puts him about 15 runs offensively behind Izturis over 600 PA. CHONE rates them both as +5 defensively, so an acquisition of Izturis would likely bring the Reds about a win and a half in 2010.

I think Izturis is definitely somebody the Reds should pursue. One-and-a-half WAR is not a huge amount, but Izturis will likely not make more than $2.5-3 million next season, so it would definitely be a cost-effective upgrade. The question is what will the Reds have to give up. Price says in his article that the Angels are looking for a corner outfielder and bullpen help. I'm not sure if they'd have any interest in Jonny Gomes, and he's probably the most viable candidate as an outfield centerpiece to a deal.

That means the Reds probably need to go the relief route. Arthur Rhodes could be a potential candidate for dealing, and the money/contract situation would be similar (both players are free agents after 2010). Given Rhodes' age, I think the Reds should be willing to give him up in a deal since he's a definite risk to have a big dropoff any day now. I'd also consider Daniel Ray Herrera or Jared Burton available as part of a package. And of course, if the Angels wanted to take Francisco Cordero's contract, I'm sure the Reds would even be willing to chip in a couple million to make it worth the effort.

What do you think? Should the Reds pursue Izturis? Do they have a package of players to get it done?

(h/t nycredsfan)

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 2: Offense

JinAZ — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

A late season surge helped prevent a historically bad offense, but nonetheless, relative to average, the Reds fell off 26 runs in 2009 to 71 runs below average (after park adjustments). It was the worst Reds offense since the 1997 team (95 runs below average). On a team level, where did this offensive dropoff come from? Let's go position-by-position:

Notes: Batting runs are the "Batting" stat from fangraphs, which are park-adjusted for us, and include all players at each position on the '08 and '09 Reds teams. Players playing multiple positions had their offenses pro-rated based on innings played at each position.

The Reds had a nice uptick at 1B and 2B thanks to improved offensive seasons by both Votto and Phillips. But there were major dropoffs in offense at 3B, SS, and LF. 3B was largely due to the massive underperformance of (and injury to) Encarnacion and subsequent powerless debut by Scott Rolen. At SS and LF, the story is a bit more nuanced. The Reds had guys who were essentially playing out of position at those positions in 2008 (Dunn, Hairston, Keppinger), but in 2009 were replaced by guys who didn't hit as well but contributed significantly better fielding (Janish, Dickerson, etc). Also, given how much time Paul Bako got in 2008, I was surprised to not see better offense from our catchers. But then I looked again at the 2009 catchers' hitting stats and it all made sense again. More on the individual players below.

For the individual player stats, there are a few flourishes that distinguishes what follows from what you'll find at Fangraphs, for example (which is my primary data source). First, everything's park adjusted. This is a big deal for Cincinnati, which is a moderate hitter's park (5 year regressed park factor has climbed to 1.04!). Second, the last three columns include not only the hitting information, but also full baserunning info from BPro. This includes not only stolen bases, but also things like advancing 1st to 3rd on a single.

Here are all individual Reds player performances for 2009. The table is sortable if you click in the header. I've italicized pitchers to make it easier to ignore them if you wish to do so.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	GB%	LD%	FB%	EqBRR	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA*	wRAA*	wRAR*
Joey Votto	544	13%	23%	39%	22%	39%	-0.3	0.372	0.322	0.414	0.567	0.245	0.411	38.3	52.7
Brandon Phillips	644	7%	13%	50%	17%	33%	3.0	0.284	0.276	0.329	0.447	0.171	0.339	5.3	22.3
Jonny Gomes	314	9%	30%	34%	20%	46%	-0.1	0.309	0.267	0.338	0.541	0.274	0.367	10.1	18.4
Jay Bruce	387	10%	22%	39%	13%	49%	0.0	0.221	0.223	0.303	0.470	0.247	0.324	-2.1	8.1
Chris Dickerson	299	13%	26%	50%	22%	29%	-1.9	0.360	0.275	0.370	0.373	0.098	0.325	-1.2	6.7
Laynce Nix	337	7%	26%	38%	20%	43%	1.1	0.272	0.239	0.291	0.476	0.237	0.321	-2.7	6.2
Wladimir Balentien	125	12%	25%	47%	18%	35%	0.5	0.325	0.264	0.352	0.427	0.163	0.345	1.6	4.9
Drew Stubbs	196	8%	27%	42%	21%	37%	-1.3	0.325	0.267	0.323	0.439	0.172	0.328	-0.4	4.8
Juan Francisco	25	13%	33%	57%	29%	14%	0.3	0.615	0.429	0.520	0.619	0.190	0.503	3.8	4.4
Scott Rolen	162	12%	15%	46%	16%	38%	-1.5	0.291	0.270	0.364	0.401	0.131	0.325	-0.7	3.6
Micah Owings	58	2%	35%	43%	17%	40%	-0.1	0.333	0.259	0.281	0.537	0.278	0.333	0.2	1.7
Darnell McDonald	111	5%	30%	47%	18%	35%	0.7	0.361	0.267	0.306	0.400	0.133	0.312	-1.8	1.2
Jerry Hairston	340	6%	15%	34%	24%	42%	-0.5	0.273	0.254	0.305	0.397	0.143	0.303	-8.1	0.9
Kevin Barker	36	9%	28%	54%	25%	21%	-0.1	0.375	0.281	0.333	0.375	0.094	0.292	-1.2	-0.2
Daniel Herrera	4	33%	50%	100%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.229	-0.4	-0.2
Arthur Rhodes	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Jared Burton	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Nick Masset	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ramon Ramirez	1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Carlos Fisher	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ryan Hanigan	293	13%	12%	48%	24%	27%	-1.4	0.289	0.263	0.361	0.331	0.068	0.298	-8.2	-0.5
Matt Maloney	15	8%	42%	86%	14%	0%	0.1	0.429	0.250	0.308	0.250	0.000	0.262	-0.9	-0.5
Mike Lincoln	2	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.6	-0.5
Edwin Encarnacion	165	15%	27%	41%	14%	46%	-2.8	0.250	0.209	0.333	0.374	0.165	0.295	-5.1	-0.7
Drew Sutton	76	10%	30%	37%	19%	44%	-0.6	0.289	0.212	0.297	0.348	0.136	0.280	-3.3	-1.3
Ramon Hernandez	331	10%	12%	49%	19%	32%	-3.1	0.274	0.258	0.336	0.362	0.104	0.295	-10.1	-1.3
Danny Richar	9	11%	13%	57%	14%	29%	-1.3	0.286	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.105	-1.8	-1.5
Kip Wells	16	0%	36%	67%	33%	0%	0.2	0.143	0.091	0.091	0.091	0.000	0.090	-3.3	-2.9
Corky Miller	69	14%	25%	28%	21%	51%	-0.5	0.214	0.179	0.299	0.250	0.071	0.247	-5.0	-3.2
Edinson Volquez	19	0%	50%	75%	13%	13%	0.0	0.125	0.063	0.063	0.063	0.000	0.050	-4.6	-4.1
Adam Rosales	266	10%	20%	45%	16%	40%	0.3	0.246	0.213	0.303	0.317	0.104	0.278	-12.0	-5.0
Justin Lehr	28	4%	36%	77%	8%	15%	-0.7	0.143	0.091	0.130	0.136	0.045	0.090	-5.9	-5.1
Craig Tatum	77	9%	15%	45%	12%	43%	0.1	0.175	0.162	0.250	0.221	0.059	0.213	-7.8	-5.8
Paul Janish	292	9%	16%	37%	19%	44%	0.7	0.247	0.211	0.296	0.305	0.094	0.271	-14.9	-7.2
Aaron Harang	54	2%	26%	74%	9%	18%	-1.4	0.176	0.149	0.167	0.234	0.085	0.141	-8.9	-7.5
Johnny Cueto	59	6%	37%	74%	4%	22%	0.2	0.207	0.130	0.184	0.130	0.000	0.151	-9.2	-7.6
Homer Bailey	43	0%	45%	75%	10%	15%	-0.1	0.143	0.079	0.079	0.079	0.000	0.062	-10.0	-8.9
Bronson Arroyo	76	0%	44%	35%	21%	45%	-0.3	0.200	0.113	0.113	0.161	0.048	0.108	-14.7	-12.7
Willy Taveras	437	4%	14%	47%	17%	36%	3.6	0.277	0.240	0.275	0.285	0.045	0.259	-26.9	-15.4
Alex Gonzalez	270	6%	15%	36%	18%	46%	-1.4	0.231	0.210	0.258	0.296	0.086	0.229	-23.7	-16.6

Table notes: Most stats were pulled or calculated from those at FanGraphs. Most should be self-explanatory. EqBRR is Dan Fox's baserunning stat from Baseball Prospectus. wOBA* is an all-encompassing offensive stat read on the same scale as OBP. It is based on wOBA listed at fangraphs, but then park adjusted and further adjusted to include EqBRR baserunning information. wRAA* is runs above average, based on wOBA*, and so is park adjusted and includes EqBRR. wRAR* is based on wRAA*, plus a 2.0 wins/700 PA modifier (the difference between an average hitter and a replacement hitter). wRAR* does not consider position--that includes pitchers! We will apply position adjustments when calculating win values in a subsequent post.

Joey Votto is the clear winner of the best offensive player award, despite missed time due to illness. The guy just had an incredible season. His 0.372 BABIP is a source of concern, however--that's almost certainly the result of some good luck, which will (at least) pull down his on-base stats. But he doesn't have to have an 0.372 to be a fine hitter. I'll happily take his CHONE projection in 2010 and every year thereafter...though, maybe with a few more PA's.

The often maligned (at least in the blogosphere) Brandon Phillips comes in as the second most valuable hitter, at least relative to replacement level. Yes, he's a free swinger, and yes, he's misplaced hitting 4th on a team. But he's proven to be an extremely durable, consistent hitter with good power and the ability to add to value with his baserunning game. He, along with Taveras, contributed the most on the basepaths this year (+3 runs overall).

Jonny Gomes comes in third, and I'm sure this is why so many are enthusiastic about re-signing him (despite his fielding problems). His 0.274 ISO was the highest of any hitter on the team, and second only to the incomparable Micah Owings.

But from here, we just drop off a cliff. I find it flat-out shocking that only three hitters crossed the 10 RAR plateau on this Reds team. In 2008, we had seven players top that plateau, with Jay Bruce essentially #8. There just wasn't much good hitting talent--or at least good hitting performance--on the team this year. In contrast, we had five hitters at least 5 runs below replacement level (Rosales, Tatum, Janish, Taveras, and Gonzalez; this is offense only). Now, some of that was made up for with glovework. But even so, this is a miserable offense. All I can say is thank goodness for Joey Votto. Can you imagine what this team would have been like without him?

A few other hitters of interest. I've read a lot of optimisim about Jay Bruce, with many pointing to his 0.221 BABIP as something that won't happen next season. I hope they're right, and I was glad to see the power there from him, but I worry about his line drive %. Those things can fluctuate, and Bruce is young and tremendously talented. But a bust-out season next year isn't guaranteed from where I sit......Micah Owings lived up to his reputation and had a terrific year at the plate for a pitcher, often serving as our top right-handed pinch hitter. And keep in mind the pinch hitting is measurably more difficult that hitting when you're already in the game, so Owings is probably better than he showed. He didn't walk much, and I wonder if that eventually will catch up to him as pitchers learn to exploit his weaknesses.....Drew Stubbs showed surprising power in his September call-up, but his on-base skills weren't as evident, walking only 8% of the time. There was some talk that he'd modified his swing upon arriving in the big leagues, but I haven't seen confirmation of that and I'm skeptical. Honestly, I think he just got lucky. I have very little idea of what he'll hit next season.....Juan "El Nino Destructor" Francisco hit the crap out of the ball in his 25 PA's, even walking at a nice clip. But 0.615 BABIPs tend to decline, and I have almost zero confidence that he's actually big league ready.....Lowest walk rate by anyone on the team with more than 100 PA's? Our leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras. I kind of miss Norris Hopper.....How bad was Ramon Hernandez? And manning 1B when Votto was out, no less! I argued last spring that a combination of Hernandez and Hanigan would be a massive upgrade on last year's catching. As the graph at the top of the page shows, however, it wasn't. Not that Tatum or Miller helped much on that front.

Next time (probably after the holidays): Fielding, and combining fielding value with offensive value to get position player win values!

Potential Player of Interest -- Jonny Gomes

Adam J. Morris — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:30:11 -0000

The Rangers need a reasonably priced righthanded bat with pop that can DH and maybe fill in at a COF or CIF spot.

And I stumbled last night on an item by Ken Rosenthal that discussed a guy who could be a fit -- Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jonny Gomes.

Gomes is a guy I have always found to be intriguing, but who I finally gave up on last season and ignored...and he went on to have a pretty good season for Cincy:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jonny Gomes	98	281	39	75	17	0	20	51	26	85	3	1	.267	.338	.541

Gomes is a lousy defender, and he didn't hit the previous couple of years with Tampa, but he's a righty bat with pop who will draw some walks. And he has a career .274/.369/.517 line against LHPs.

Gomes just turned 29, and he's arbitration-eligible this offseason, so he's not a long-term solution. But as a one year guy who ideally would get 250 PAs, mostly at DH against LHPs, but who you might want 400-500 PAs from if need be, he could be a good fit.

There's apparently talk that Gomes could be non-tendered, which would make him a free agent, but I wonder if it wouldn't be worth the Rangers while to offer some of the team's minor league depth to deal a fringe guy -- a Brennan Garr or Evan Reed or Tim Murphy -- to get Gomes, if they think he's looking at $1.5-2 million in arbitration. And of course, if he were to be non-tendered, I'd hope the Rangers would be interested in him on a cheap one year deal.

Gomes is the type of role player who could be a perfect fit for the Rangers' needs, and I think he's someone who is worth keeping an eye on this offseason.

How much is Jonny Gomes worth?

JinAZ — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:15:09 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Jonny Gomes can mash the ball. But he may be the Reds' worst fielder, which cuts deeply into his value.

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A lot of the talk about the Hernandez signing was about whether the money spent on Hernandez would affect our ability to sign Jonny Gomes. I thought it'd be worth it to try to estimate how much Jonny Gomes should actually be paid in 2010.

Gomes will be effectively in his second year of arbitration eligibility in 2010. He's at 4+ years of service, despite having his first significant amount of playing time in 2005: too much time in the minors. This impacts his earning potential, as players do not make as much in arbitration hearings as they do on the open free agent market. The general guideline is that they make 40% of free agent salary in their first year of arbitration, 60% in their second year, and 80% in their third year of arbitration, though some work has shown that these values actually underestimate actual totals because arbitration salaries haven't inflated as rapidly as free agent salaries. But we'll go with 60% for Jonny.

Hitting-wise, Jonny is above-average. CHONE's R150 is +4 RAA for him. Converted to wins per full season puts him at +0.5 WAA. CHONE's slightly more optimistic than ZiPS, but let's run with CHONE for now.

Gomes's problem is his fielding. Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections have him at -3 runs in the corner outfield positions combined. However, he really only has about 1.5 seasons worth of playing time in the outfield to draw from (192 games started), which means sample size is an issue and thus we're seeing Gomes regressed a bit toward the mean. Furthermore, Zimmerman's data are based on total UZR data in each season, not UZR/150, which results in several fairly "average" low-inning stints entering into the calculations and pulling the numbers back toward zero. I'm just not sure that I trust that projection. So let's try something else.

His career UZR/150 in the corner outfield is -22 runs. Yikes. But again, it's based on a relatively small sample for this kind of stat, so we probably need to regress roughly 50% toward the mean. As an alternative, the Fan Scouting Report has him at 2.4 out of 5.0, which is well below the average of RFs of 3.2. If I'm doing this right (and I think I am), based on standard deviations of the Fans data and UZR data, you can equate 1 unit of FSR to ~17 runs, which would put Gomes at -14 runs below average in RF per full season (-1.6 wins). That seems in keeping with his all-hit-no-field reputation, so I'm going to go with that estimate. Nevertheless, I can see arguments for everything from -0.5 wins to -2 wins. It's a big source of uncertainty, and how you evaluate his overall value depends a great deal on how you evaluate his fielding.

Finally, Gomes is playing corner outfield positions, which have a 0.75 win/season penalty to reflect the poor fielding found at that position (it's easier to be an average-fielding left fielder than an average-fielding center fielder). Replacement is +2.25 wins per season.

So, all of that combined, per season, puts Gomes at 0.5 - 1.6 - 0.75 + 2.25 = 0.4 WAR player per full season.

Ouch. Fielding just kills his value.

The question, then, is playing time. CHONE projects him at 54% playing time, which isn't an unreasonable guess if you assume he'd platoon with Dickerson in left. On the other hand, if he starts all year, he might push toward 85% playing time. Here are estimated WAR totals, free agent dollar values, and 2nd-year arbitration dollar values for each of those two playing time estimates:

Playing Time	WAR	FA $	Arb $
54%	0.2	$1.0M	$0.6M
85%	0.3	$1.5M	$0.9M

If those seem like surprisingly low totals, remember a) he's not getting paid at free agent rates yet, and b) fielding is killing his value. He was worth 0.6 WAR according to fangraphs last season...but 2009 was his first positive WAR season since his "breakout" 2005 campaign.

Also, in terms of the salaries, keep in mind that these are estimated fair market values for him. The market, and probably especially the arbitration market, hasn't completely corrected for bad fielding players yet. Arbitration debates, as I understand them, are still largely settled with AVG/HR/RBI. So it may be that he'd get more than that in arbitration--perhaps at least the $1.3M he made in 2008. Nevertheless, I think this is a pretty good estimate of what he should be paid in 2010.

Finally, I want to emphasize that this estimate is hugely contingent on how you evaluate his fielding. Go with the Zimmerman UZR projections and you add a full win (~$4 M) to his FA salary. Go with his straight-up career corner outfield UZR/150, and he's a replacement player. What do you folks think?

Arizona Fall League: Saturday's Roundup

raygu — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 14:25:04 -0000

Here's a look at Saturday's top performances:

Dustin Ackley, OF, SEA-2-5, RS, 2 2B, 3 RBI (.313)

Russ Mitchell, 1B, LAD-3-5, 2 RS, 5 RBI (.365)

Trayvon Robinson, OF, LAD-1-4, 2 RS, SB (.280)

Joseph Dunigan, 1B-2-4, 3 RBI (.289)

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM-2-5, 2 RS, HR, RBI (.340)

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI-2-5, RS, 3 RBI (.258)

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT-3-5, 2 RS, (.328)

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI-0-5, RBI (.175)

Brandon Crawford, SS, SFG-3-5, RS, 2 SB (.333)

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL-2-4 (.308)

Chris Heisey, OF, CIN-0-3, 2 K (.364)

Zach Cozart, SS, CIN-2-4, 2 K, SB (.354)

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN- 0-4 (.244)

Drew Storen, RP, WAS-1 Inn, 2 H, K, S (2) (1.17 ERA)

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK-3-5, 2 RS, 2 SB

Brad Emaus, 1B, CLE-4-4, 2 RS (.314)

Grant Desem, OF, OAK-0-4, RBI (.393)

Josh Bell, 3B, BAL-0-4 (.333)

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC-2-4, SB (.417)

Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC-1-5 (.333)

Starlin Castro is now leading the AFL in hitting with his .417 Avg.

With Chris Heisey close to making the Reds roster in 2010, what do the Reds do with the logjam at 1B with Joey Votto, who I wrote about yesterday, and AA first baseman Yonder Alonso? The Reds have an abundance of outfielders in Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Chris Dickerson, Willy Taveras, Jonny Gomes and Chris Heisey. You can also throw OF, 3B, 2B prospect Todd Frazier into the OF mix.

Checking out Bill James Projections for 2010

Slyde — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:50:17 -0000

We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season. I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you. The full set of projections will be available with much, much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here.

I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition. First, the "starters":

**Starters**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Jay Bruce	.296/.351/.540	.223/.303/.470	574	.274/.340/.537
Paul Janish	N/A	.211/.296/.305	188	.223/.301/.319
Brandon Phillips	.263/.313/.431	.276/.329/.447	613	.269/.322/.434
Scott Rolen	.268/.356/.453	.305/.368/.455	482	.278/.357/.442
Joey Votto	.307/.386/.536	.322/.414/.567	502	.311/.397/.550

The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were. As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder. I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection. Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup. BP's projection is what it almost always is. I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed. Votto is...well...awesome.

**Left Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Wladimir Balentien	.239/.312/.444	.234/.305/.385	160	.244/.316/.431
Jonny Gomes	.251/.356/.486	.267/.338/.541	278	.245/.331/.486
Darnell McDonald	N/A	.267/.306/.400	174	.270/.321/.414
Laynce Nix	N/A	.239/.291/.476	214	.257/.309/.467

Based on these projections, there aren't a lot of outstanding prospects for a typically high offensive position like left field. I'd still like to see Gomes brought back, especially given these other options. However, I'm also not convinced that Balentien can't outperform those projections. I'm not sure if he's good enough for an everyday starter role, but I think he could potentially put up a little more power.

**Center Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Chris Dickerson	.268/.360/.454	.275/.370/.373	254	.276/.372/.429
Drew Stubbs	N/A	.267/.323/.439	544	.267/.336/.390
Willy Taveras	.267/.323/.315	.240/.275/.285	277	.271/.322/.321

To be honest with you, I'd give Chris Dickerson the starting job in center field next year, if I thought he would stay healthy. I wouldn't be upset if Drew Stubbs is out there, especially if his power surge last season is real (the James Projections don't think so). Willy Taveras should be gone.

**Catcher**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Ryan Hanigan	.275/.357/.382	.263/.361/.331	344	.277/.361/.366
Ramon Hernandez	.253/.319/.411	.258/.336/.362	120	.260/.328/.405

Surely no one thinks that Hernandez is worth $8 million more than Hanigan next season.

What do you think? Are they way off anywhere? Does this change your opinion of any of the players?