SB Nation - Dioner Navarro

Catch-22: What to do with Dioner Navarro?

FreeZorilla — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Does Navi fit into the current roster construction of the Rays?

In 2009, the catcher slot represented a hole in the Rays line up more glaring than the sun. Unlikely 2008 All-Star Dioner Navarro took a rather nasty statistical nose dive, leaving the Front Office little choice but to use their Z-game in acquiring 38 year-old Gregg Zaun for minor league first-baseman Rhyne Hughes. Zaun provided exactly what R.J. expected when he called for the Rays to look into Zaunover a month before the trade occurred. Zaun and Navi afforded the Rays a pair of complementary switch-hitters. Zaun fares slightly better versus right-handed pitching while Navi has a much wider gap between his splits in favor of facing southpaws.

Catchers who can hit lefties are a-dime-a-dozen as all catchers field right-handed. One of the main reason catchers are routinely criticized as poor hitters is because in 2009 70.5% of American League plate appearances came against right-handed pitching. This places left-handed hitting or good switch-hitting catchers at a premium as they have favorable platoon splits far more often than their right-handed counterparts.

Heading into the off-season, many expected the Rays to try to keep Zaun aroundfor a year while replacing Navarro. The thinking was that both catchers would cost $2-3 million and perhaps a cheaper alternative could be found for Navarro since Zaun has a more favorable match-up 29.5% of the time. Two potential roadblocks to this plan were Zaun's increasing age, and a compensatory 2nd round pick awarded to the Rays if another team was to sign Zaun due to his Type B free agent status.

As often is the case, the Rays Front Office strikes hard, silently and when least expected. With all eyes patiently looking ahead to the Winter Meetings, Andrew Friedman sensed opportunity. The rebuilding Cleveland Indians had a surplus of catchers. The right-handed Kelly Shoppach made $1,950,000 andwas due for a raise in arbitration. Behind Shoppach were 3 young catchers, prospects Lou Marson and Carlos Santana along with Wyatt Toregas. Shoppach would be too expensive for the Indians by the time they were to be competitive again, so he was a prime candidate to be non-tendered. Friedman sensed this and agreed to move a Player to Be Named Later for Shoppach. We now know through MLB.com that the player will either be AAA pitcher Mitch Talbot who is out of options or Joe Cruz who pitched in A- ball last year. Talbot, if healthy, should be able to handily crack the Cleveland rotation, whereas the Rays would probably been forced to pawn him off in a fire sale in Spring Training. It was a win-win as neither team had much leverage and succeeded in addressing a weakness from a position of excess strength.

Shoppach is a powerful right-hander who strikes out a lot but has decent on base-skills. His career splits trend much like Navi's, highly successful vs. LHP with a big drop-off vs. righties. However, Shoppach fares better than Navarro from both sides of the plate. Their career platoon splits can be found below:

	vs RHP		vs LHP
	OBP	SLG	OBP	SLG
Navi	0.302	0.339	0.336	0.434
Shoppach	0.308	0.396	0.386	0.614

We often discuss how the catching spot is one of a natural platoon. Teams are forced to take up two roster spots, so why not try to make some chemistry magic by playing off their strengths? The thought of signing Gregg Zaun began to look more attractive. Shoppach was adequate enough against RHP to reduce Zaun's workload. He could handle the 50 or so starts vs LHP and take on an additional 50-60 starts against RHP, while the elder Zaun would provide excellent ball-blocking skills and steady offense in the remaining 50-60 games vs. RHP. This option went out the door when the Brewers signed Zaun for $2.1 million giving the Rays the extra pick in next year's draft.

At this point it was widely assumed Navarro was a dead man walking in Tampa Bay. I penned a column looking at cheap in-house and external replacements in the minors who had wide splits in favor of facing RHP. We watched the days go by at the Winter Meetings waiting for a Navarro trade for the best available compensation. As the Saturday night deadline approached, there was a growing sense that Navarro would be non-tendered if he could not be moved. In 2009, Dioner Navarro andthe Rays had a bloody arbitration battle over a mere $400,000 with the Rays emerging victorious. Those are the types of battles that needlessly occur when you are represented by an agent who would tweet the following:

@kendallalmerico Here’s a shocker. Navarro starts, Rays win again. Talk stats all you want, but team chemistry = wins. And wins are what matters.

@kendallalmerico Rays now 5-7 with Zaunstarting, 5-2 with Navi behind the plate. I guess Joe Maddon wants October off this year.

@kendallalmericoSince acquiring 143 year old Geoff Zaun…Rays 5-6 with Zaunstarting at catcher, 4-2 with Navi starting. Hmmmm…let’s do the math

Andrew Friedman moves against the grain. Navarro had little to no leverage in negotiations given his gnatty agent, his putrid 2009, and the fact that teams had been filling voids at catcher all week. He accepted a one-year deal at the same salary as the previous season, $2.1 million. Why would Friedman do this given the apparent lack of synergies between Shoppach and Navi?

There are a few schools of thought. Conventional wisdom dictates the team needs an "experienced" backstop on the pine in the event of injury. Navarro is already familiar with the pitching staff and certainly that carries some value. While Navarro is almost certainly not as good as his 2008 slash line of .295/.349/.407, he is also not as bad as 2009's .218/.261/.222. For a reference point his career line is .253/.312/.367. An avenue of thought is that Navarro will rebound, thereby increasing his value and becoming an attractively priced trade target down the road.

Given Shoppach and Navi's career splits and assuming Shoppach catches about 120 games, how is the playing time best broken up using their career splits? Let's assume there are 120 games vs RHP and 40 vs LHP.

Method A= Shoppach faces all RHP and Navarro faces all LHP

Method B= Shoppach faces 80 RHP and 40 LHP, Navi gaces 40 RHP

	OBP	SLG	OPS
Method A	0.315	0.406	0.721
Method B	0.326	0.436	0.762

It seems as though overall team performance is best utilized when Navarro plays exclusively vs. RHP. Given Navi's deep career splits, I question whether this will allow him to raise his value at all. It would be akin to platooning Gabe Gross with a better hitting lefty who also struggled vs LHP. Gross would have to face lefties nearly all the time to maximize team value and his individual offensive numbers would be awful. If you don't do it in right field, why pay $2.1 million to do it at catcher?

I took a look at all catchers who had 150 PA in 2009 and looked at their career splits. I then broke the list into two, those with over 1000 career PA, and those with less. I also included each player's 2009 salary and his 2009 Defensive Runs Above Average as put together by devilfingers on drivelinemechanics.com:

Catchers > 1000 Career PA

Name	TotalPA	RHPOPS	LHPOPS	DefRAA	09 salary
Joe Mauer	2994	0.948	0.781	4.3	$10,500,000
Brian McCann	2372	0.892	0.761	-3	$3,666,667
Jorge Posada	6312	0.852	0.877	-5.9	$13,100,000
Victor Martinez	3686	0.847	0.816	-0.6	$5,900,000
Mike Napoli	1294	0.832	0.909	-9.7	$2,000,000
Ivan Rodriguez	9712	0.794	0.846	0.5	$1,500,000
Geovany Soto	1039	0.794	0.841	0.7	$575,000
Ryan Doumit	1483	0.786	0.758	-2	$2,150,000
A.J. Pierzynski	4704	0.781	0.661	-4.8	$6,250,000
Chris Iannetta	1084	0.767	0.930	2	$415,000
Jason Varitek	5464	0.759	0.828	-4.1	$5,000,000
David Ross	1458	0.754	0.769	7	$1,400,000
Kurt Suzuki	1450	0.744	0.778	0.9	$410,000
Jason Kendall	8212	0.744	0.682	-4.5	$5,000,000
Russell Martin	2326	0.743	0.880	-3.3	$3,900,000
Gregg Zaun	3925	0.733	0.730	-0.2	$1,500,000
Ramon Hernandez	4770	0.729	0.780	3.3	$8,500,000
Kenji Johjima	1722	0.725	0.710	8.8	$8,000,000
Brian Schneider	3186	0.716	0.620	3.5	$4,900,000
Carlos Ruiz	1259	0.712	0.728	5.4	$475,000
Ramon Castro	1400	0.707	0.773	-1.6	$2,625,000
Kelly Shoppach	1043	0.704	1.000	-1.5	$1,950,000
Josh Bard	1769	0.695	0.771	-7.3	$600,000
Bengie Molina	4743	0.691	0.813	-3.4	$6,000,000
Chris Snyder	1682	0.689	0.822	-3	$3,000,000
John Buck	2116	0.687	0.749	-4.8	$2,900,000
Rod Barajas	2746	0.684	0.714	4.2	$2,500,000
Yorvit Torrealba	1987	0.680	0.777	-2.9	$3,750,000
Yadier Molina	2458	0.672	0.741	6.6	$3,312,500
Ronny Paulino	1376	0.652	0.877	2.5	$440,000
Miguel Olivo	2631	0.651	0.824	-8.8	$2,700,000
Dioner Navarro	1822	0.641	0.770	0.4	$2,100,000
Gerald Laird	1826	0.633	0.776	13.3	$2,800,000
Henry Blanco	2614	0.626	0.739	5.7	$750,000
Jose Molina	1587	0.571	0.690	-1.1	$2,150,000

Of the 35 catchers with >1000 career plate appearances, Navi has the 4th worst OPS vs RHP. You'll note 2 of the 3 names below him are worth a win and 1.3 wins more defensively. Navi has little value vs. RHP and is about average defensively. If the Rays are to settle for a below average hitter, a defensive stud would seem to make more sense, especially since most of the marketplace discounts defense at the catcher spot.

For the catchers with less than 1000 PAs, we have to take their splits with a larger grain of salt, though RHP is the more reliable number. Park-Adjusted AAA OPS vs RHPis included for reference point for the minor league alternatives in my previous article, with a minimum 150 PA required in a AAA season.

Catches < 1000 Career PA

Name	TotalPA	RHPOPS	paAAA	LHPOPS	DefRAA
Landon Powell	155	0.829	0.735	0.458	2.4
John Baker	656	0.815	0.820	0.630	-3.2
Matt Wieters	385	0.804	1.017	0.695	2.5
Miguel Montero	938	0.773	1.020	0.792	-6.5
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	869	0.768	N/A	0.588	-0.3
Taylor Teagarden	271	0.721	0.770	0.841	2.4
Nick Hundley	505	0.719	0.824	0.593	-6.8
Chris Coste	885	0.713	0.494	0.821	-0.2
Ryan Hanigan	402	0.712	0.794	0.680	7
Jason Jaramillo	224	0.701	0.795	0.511	0.1
Omir Santos	316	0.700	0.625	0.616	2.4
Rob Johnson	325	0.636	0.878	0.490	-1.8
Brayan Pena	314	0.595	0.742	0.648	-2.9
Koyie Hill	543	0.580	0.812	0.627	6.1
Raul Chavez	725	0.576	0.563	0.555	4.4
Jeff Mathis	861	0.573	0.587	0.663	-2.1
Wil Nieves	597	0.569	0.629	0.589	-0.3
Humberto Quintero	589	0.555	0.942	0.732	1.7

There is no guarantee AAA success vs RHP will translate to the major leagues. We don't know that a John Jaso or Jose Lobaton will be able to provide a Navarro-level of success against RHP. However with two birds in the bush, the chance of one of them landing in the hand is a bit better.

Navi would almost be better suited to scrap the switch-hitting and work solely from the right side of the plate. Barring an unexpected offensive breakthrough, Navarro will be best utilized as a career backup to a catcher who hits well against RHP. Navarro can play predominantly against lefties and make fairly valuable contributions. For a team with that makeup, $2.1 million is a pretty attractive price in this marketplace. If Navarro had been traded prior to reaching the deal, the acquiring team would almost certainly be paying closer to the $3-3.5 million being earned by the likes of John Buck, Pudge, and Jason Kendall. As a counterpart to Shoppach, the return falls short even with the discounted contract. My hope is that Friedman can find the right place for Navi to succeed andreceive something back of greater value back than he would have received witht he contract uncertainty associated with the arbitration process.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:18:55 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Craig Counsell is expected to re-sign today.

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Some things to read while John Tesh rocks the NBA on NBC theme (h/t Amy K. Nelson).

Randy Wolf is expected to undergo a physical this morning and once he does, expect his contract to become official sometime later today. That might not be today's only announcement, though: the Brewers are also expected to finalize a deal with Craig Counsell today. With Counsell, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee all on the roster, the Brewers' Opening Day infield is probably set, barring injury or trade.

Meanwhile, Mike Rivera is surprised to be looking for work after being non-tendered over the weekend. He thought the decision not to retain Jason Kendall would give him an edge as the only returning catcher familiar with the Brewer pitching staff.

As of this writing, roughly 4% of voters in the poll on your right listed the decision to offer Dave bush a 2010 contract as the one Brewer move from this weekend they would change. That's not exactly a large chunk of the fanbase, but In-Between Hops is taking on that vocal minority, making the case that the Brewers made the right move by giving Bush another shot.

If you missed Morineko's Weekend Mug, follow the link over to it for full coverage of the Brewers' arbitration decisions, and a link to this list of all the non-tenders leaguewide.

Looking back at last week, Jon Heyman ranked the Brewers among the Winter Meeting winners. Meanwhile, Marc Hulet of The Baseball Analysts listed Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren in the "Why Bother?" category.

The more I think about it, the more I think Lofgren will have a tough task ahead of him if he's going to make the team out of spring training. With Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Mitch Stetter back, there's only two bullpen spots left that are potentially available (barring injury), and Chris Smith, John Axford, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and now Lofgren fighting for them. I like Lofgren's potential and hope the Brewers will get an opportunity to realize it, but right now he might be the third or fourth best lefty in the bullpen competition.

If you have a vague interest in Brewer baseball, but wish there was less analysis and more profanity on this site, then Miller Park Drunk's RUNNING series might be just the ticket for you. Follow these links for bad Prince Fielder jokes, some fan fiction involving Ryan Braun trying to rap, and a vague musical reference to Rickie Weeks.

In the minors: Baseball Intellect has video footage of some at bats featuring Cameron Garfield, Cutter Dykstra and Josh Prince from a Pioneer League game back in July. They're pay-only, but there are worse ways to spend $2.95.

If you were gone this weekend, you didn't miss the opportunity to help select a center fielder and catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. Voting closes at 4 pm today for center fielders and 4 pm tomorrow for catchers. We'll open the voting for the final starting outfield spot later today.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed catcher John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million, signed Joey Gathright to a minor league deal,
Braves: Signed Matt Diaz to a one year, $2.55 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
D-Backs: Re-signed infielder Augie Ojeda to a one year deal, and avoided arbitration with Blaine Boyer.
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed shortstop-turned-pitcher Tony Pena Jr. to a minor league deal.
Indians: Re-signed pitchers Adam Miller and Anthony Reyes to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Nationals: Re-signed Scott Olsen to a one year deal. Also signed pitcher Ryan Speier to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed Ronny Cedeno to a one year, $1.125 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rangers: Signed infielder Esteban German to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rays: Avoided arbitration with catcher Dioner Navarro and pitchers Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate.
Royals: Avoided arbitration with pitchers Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies. They also signed pitcher Bruce Chen and catcher Vance Wilson to minor league deals.
White Sox: Signed J.J. Putz to a one year deal.

Meanwhile, the market heated up immediately for Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that six teams have already expressed interest. He doesn't list the teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers are one of them.

I promise, I'm not going to mention it every time someone says something new about Jason Kendall. In fact, I might try to go the rest of the week without mentioning him at all. With that said, I thought these three links about him were interesting:

Joe Posnanski has a look at the potential Opening Day lineup for the 2010 Royals, now including Kendall.
He also compares Kendall to a superball on the field at Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Reminding us all how far and how fast Kendall has fallen, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? named Kendall the Pirate Catcher of the Decade.

Weeks ago I linked to a post from minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis, mentioning the challenges in finding quality, healthy food in minor league clubhouses. It looks like that problem may be on its way to being resolved: After discussing it at the Winter Meetings, several teams are making an effort to provide healthier options, and remove the constant flow of junk.

If you're a fan of sabermetrics, or just want to learn more about them, I've got two links for you today:

TangoTiger has a look at OPS+, and some minor adjustments that could be made to it to make it more useful than some other advanced metrics.
That post links to this one, Big League Stew's beginner's guide to wOBA. I learned a fair amount by reading that one.

Gorman Thomas celebrated a birthday over the weekend, and while this probably isn't what he had in mind for a gift, David Chalk of Seventh Inning 'Stache has inducted him into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

On this day in 1998, the Brewers acquired Alex Ochoa from the Twins for a minor leaguer named Darrell Nicholas. Ochoa spent one season as a Brewer, hitting .300/.404/.466 before being traded to the Reds for Mark Sweeney after the season.

Happy birthday today to:

Former Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Greg Goossen, who turns 64.
Dave Nilsson, who appeared in 837 games as a Brewer and turns 40.
Marcus Jensen, who appeared in 18 games over two tours as a Brewer and turns 37.

Sean Forman, founder of Baseball Reference, is also celebrating his birthday today. You can help him celebrate by sponsoring a page. I know someone around here will want this one.

Drink up.

B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett Among Rays' Tendered Contracts

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, left, and pitcher Lance Cormier both received one-year deals, avoiding arbitration.

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Now that decision Saturday is finished, the Rays roster has gotten a bit clearer in some areas, yet remains unsettled in others. Not surprising, but B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Kelly Shoppach were all tendered contracts for the 2010 season. Barring an unforeseen event, all should be back with the Rays. The remaining questions are: who will sign before the mid-January deadline? And will any have a hearing like Dioner Navarro did last season?

Speaking of Navarro, a non-tender candidate in his own right, he was not only tendered a contract, but re-signed before the midnight deadline to a one-year deal with $2.1 million dollars avoiding arbitration altogether. The $2.1 million dollar salary is an exact replica of the salary Navarro received in 2009 after an arbitration panel denied his request for $2.5 million. It's not secret Navarro was just awful in 2009, but some of that awfulness can be explained by bad luck.

Even with regression, it seems that Navarro and the other catcher on the roster, Shoppach, are not ideal platoon partners with each player owning a similar platoon split. The Rays could stay status-quo on the position, or could continue to shop Navarro as was reported before Saturday's deadline. The going rate on an average catcher this year seems to be $3 million annually; Navarro could be a cheaper, alternative to some on the open market. If not, they Rays will have about ~$5 million dollars tied up at the catcher position with no clear cut answer to who is the starter.

Gabe Gross's non-tender is not a surprise. His name was never mentioned by Joe Maddon or Andrew Friedman as part of the 2010 plans, and Matt Joyce will never be more ready than he is now. Maybe the Rays will sign Ryan Langerhans for R.J. to obsess over.

R.J. covered the one-year deals of Randy Choate and Lance Cormier that will pay the bullpen duo a combined $1.9 million dollars in 2010. Choate will head in to spring training as the lead LOOGY in the clubhouse, while Cormier will nearly double his 2009 salary ($650k) and earn $1.2 million dollars. With Andy Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot in the mix for bullpen spots, the raise for Cormier could mean an expanded role; one more similar to fellow ground baller, Chad Bradford instead of just mop-up man.

Among players non-tendered by other teams, I think Matt Capps makes the most sense for the Rays. The Rays had reported interest in him before the deadline, and it's easy to see why. Capps is still young at age 26, and was well above average in 2007 and 2008. It's strange that the Huntington/Fox front office would cut him loose based on one bad season in which some regression seems to be in order. If the Rays can some how dig into their new, seemingly bottom-less, purse one more time this offseason, Capps would seem like a decent investment since his new team would also hold his rights for 2011.

More Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 9th: Rays "Front Runners" for Rafael Soriano, Texas Rangers Show Interest In Dioner Navarro, and More

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 21:30:50 -0000

The biggest and boldest new rumor is clearly Rafael Soriano to the Rays. Here's the latest update:

[Note by R.J. Anderson, 12/09/09 4:50 PM EST ]

jaysonst

Soriano deal could get done today, sources say. Rays very interested but balking at $ and player(s)

---

Rays looking like frontrunner for reliever Soriano — 4:07 p.m.

Tampa Bay appears ready to finally address the two-year late-inning bullpen problem. The key for the Rays is coming to grips with the fact they will have to expand the payroll a few million dollars to accommodate a closer.

The Rays and Houston are making the strongest push to acquire right-handed closer Rafael Soriano from Atlanta with growing indications that the Rays are likely to make the move.

Ringolsby isn't the most analytical writer in the world, so his emphasis on closers is going to be quite a bit stronger than someone like, say, Larry Stone. Regardless, we'll keep you updated if we hear/see anything further. Worth noting is that Houston is on the verge of acquiring another Rays target, Matt Lindstrom, which would -- presumably -- take them out of the Soriano race.

After the jump, the latest on Dioner Navarro and the Texas Rangers.

From ESPN's Richard Durrett:

Jason Kendall remains on the club's catching wish list and they've expressed some interest in Tampa Bay's Dioner Navarro. Interest in Toronto's Rod Barajas has lessened some because he's asking for more money than the Rangers appear willing to pay right now.

This isn't too much of a surprise, as Bill Chastain hinted at such in a recent piece. Who knows how close the Rays are to moving Navarro, but time is beginning to run out.

Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 9th: Andrew Friedman on the Market, Potential Interest in Reynel Pinto, Dioner Navarro Speculation, and More

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:00:33 -0000

Andrew Friedman

Bill Chastain with a nice article on the Rays willingness to be patient. This quote pretty much sums up winter meeting rumors as a whole:

"Each respective team or agent [they talk to about players], there's at least five teams that are hot and heavy [as far as their interest in that player]," said the Rays' executive vice president of baseball operations, with a twinkle in his eye. "So either we have really good taste, or we're not necessarily getting the straight scoop."

Matt Lindstrom/Reynel Pinto

An interesting addition to the usual Matt Lindstrom rumor, whether intentional or simply by association, is Chastain's inclusion of Marlins lefty Reynel Pinto.

Pinto, like Lindstrom, is arbitration eligible, which means the Marlins are more than eager to move him for something before losing him for nothing. A southpaw with the ability to miss bats, Pinto's biggest struggle throughout his 224 Marlins relief appearances has been his inability to consistently find the zone. His strikeouts per nine is an impressive 8.65, however he's also walked 6 per nine. Factor in that he's always had issues with the long ball, and his track record is less stellar than the other options discussed to date. Certainly there seems to be some potential there, whether it ever comes out or not is to be seen.

Chastain also notes the Rays held trade talks with seven teams yesterday, but that nothing is imminent. Of course that can and has changed in the past. Especially when it comes to these last two nights.

Dioner Navarro

Both, Chastain and T.R. Sullivan mention the Rays as potential trading mates with the Texas Rangers. The reasoning: the Rangers wish to add another catcher, and the Rays have two attractive targets. The Rangers, meanwhile, have a number of bullpen arms that could interest the Rays. Personal favorite Darren O'Day and flame-throwing right-hander Pedro Strop are two names offered in speculation.

Tampa Bay Rays "In Mix" For Ivan Rodriguez

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:39:03 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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Perhaps no position on the Rays remains as unsettled as the catcher position. Even with the acquisition of Kelly Shoppach and the departure of Gregg Zaun, it's anyones guess as to who will be the Rays catcher opening day. Even after opening day, there is no indication whether the Rays are going with a primary catcher or a platoon split. Jon Heyman adds to the confusion today by tweeting that the Rays are one of four teams interested in the services of future hall of fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez.

The idea of Pudge in a Rays uniform is one that I've had for a while. Before the 2009 season, I even dedicated an entire post to the Rays signing him. The Rays did not, and instead Rodriguez started the season with the Houston Astros before being traded to the team where he made most of his headlines, the Texas Rangers. Making a modest $1.5 million dollar base in 2009, Rodriguez hit just .245/.280/.384. It's no secret that at his age, his best offensive days are behind him. Pudge hasn't had a wOBA season over .330 since 2006, but he's still pretty good defensively throwing out nearly 35% of runners in 2009. His splits do not to see to be matches Shoppach or Dioner Navarro.

With other teams like the Royals, Giants and Rangers involved, it's likely that he could see more playing time and receive more money in those situations, but you never know. The Rays haven't been as active in signings as the Braves or the Mets to this point, but given their reported interest in all these players it isn't from a lack of effort.

Report: Tampa Bay Rays Hold Interest in Re-Signing Catcher Gregg Zaun

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:54:59 -0000

More photos » by Mike Fuentes - AP

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From FOX Sports:

The Brewers, Rockies and Rays are the teams showing the most interest in free-agent catcher Gregg Zaun, according to major-league sources.

[...]

The Rays, who acquired Zaun from the Orioles last Aug. 7, face a choice between Zaun, Dioner Navarro and the newly acquired Kelly Shoppach for their two catching openings.

If they fail to sign Zaun, who batted .287/.323/.489 for them in 99 plate appearances, they still could pursue another catcher and decline to offer Navarro or Shoppach a contract.

The Rays offered salary arbitration to Zaun, a Type B free agent, ensuring that they would receive a supplemental draft pick between the first and second rounds if he signs with another club.

The Book says the benchmarks for platoon performances are 2,000 plate appearances for a right-handed batter and 1,000 for a left-handed batter. Over the last three seasons Zaun has 674 at-bats versus righties in which he's hit .249/.339/.418 (.232/.353/.311 versus lefties). Dioner Navarro has hit .245/.301/.337 against righties in nearly 850 at-bats (.257/.300/.430 versus lefties) and Kelly Shoppach has hit .229/.319/.420 versus righties in 600+ at-bats (.297/.392/.621 against lefties). I don't need to tell you which two make the most sense for a straight up lefty/righty platoon.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Felipe Lopez reacts after learning Doug Melvin has decided not to offer him arbitration, against the advice of roughly 90% of the BCB community.

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Some things to read while raising your expectations.

Actually, lowering your expectations might be a better move. An already disappointing Brewer offseason got even worse yesterday, as the Crew declined to offer arbitration to all five of their Type B free agents, forfeiting any chance to receive compensation picks when/if they signed with another team (FanShot).

Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which players should receive offers. 202 voters weighed in, and here are the results, as promised:

Felipe Lopez, 88%
Mike Cameron, 48%
Braden Looper, 7%
Jason Kendall, 3%
David Weathers, 3%

So, nearly 90% of what I consider to be a pretty knowledgeable community of Brewer fans wanted the team to go one way with Lopez, and Doug Melvin went the other. If that's not a microcosm of the offseason so far, I don't know what is. We split pretty much down the middle on Cameron, which is interesting, and the small percentages of votes for Looper, Kendall and Weathers are proof that some Cub fans stopped by to vote in the poll. Thanks for visiting.

Here's some more reaction from around the web:

SgtClueLs of Fire Doug Melvin, which likely gained some new bandwagon members yesterday, has a how-to guide on screwing up arbitration.
The decision earned Melvin a special distinction over at Brew City Sports.
View From Bernie's Chalet doesn't get the logic.
In-Between Hops doesn't get the outrage.

If it makes you feel any better, several other teams didn't offer arbitration to any of their free agents, either. Amazin' Avenue has the full rundown of arb offers: 32 players were given the option, out of a possible 68. There is a small silver lining there: Because the supplemental round is now guaranteed to be no longer than 32 picks, the value of the Brewers' second round pick in the draft just went up a bit. It will continue to increase if players accept arbitration or re-sign with their own teams.

After reading today's news, I'm sure you're itching to run down to Miller Park and give the Brewers more of your money, right? Well, you're in luck: the Clubhouse Sale is this weekend, giving you the opportunity to check out some discounted Brewer items and game-used memorabilia. You probably won't be as lucky as Tom H., though, who once purchased the final Brewer jersey worn by Julio Machado.

Of course, it's not all bad news today: The Brewers also officially announced the signing of John Halama.

In the minors:

Prospects Paradise has the Brewers' State of the System up, with scouting reports on eleven Brewer prospects. Overall, they give the organization a C for Impact Talent and a C- for Depth.
The Baseball Chronicle is on a mission to rank the top 200 prospects in the minors. Alcides Escobar checked in at #27 and Brett Lawrie is #57.

Around baseball:

Braves: Have reportedly reached a deal with Billy Wagner on a one year, $7 million deal with a vesting option for 2011.
Phillies: Signed catcher Brian Schneider to a two year deal.
Rays: Designated reliever Jeff Bennett for assignment and acquired Kelly Shoppach from the Indians for a PTBNL.

With the Rays acquiring a catcher yesterday, it's becoming increasingly likely they'll non-tender incumbent catcher Dioner Navarro. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times lists the Brewers as one of ten teams that could be interested in his services, but whiffs on their current situation, listing Angel Salome as the top internal option.

At least we still have the Rule 5 Draft, right? Bucs Dugout has a look at another potential pick: Yankees pitcher George Kontos.

Sometimes I'm just not in the mood for heavy statistical analysis and whatnot, but I know some of you always are, so here's a post from Baseball Analysts on salary and WAR, looking at the correlation between the two. It's the kind of thing I'd attempt to comprehend on a normal day. Today, I'm just not in the mood.

There's a new leader in the clubhouse in the competition for minor league baseball's greatest logo. Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you the Richmond Flying Squirrels. (h/t Baseball America)

Yesterday I mentioned the Baseball Hall of Fame's Facebook fan page, and later realized it's been a long time since I've plugged ours. If you're a fan of BCB, you can show it to the world by adding us here. Oh, and follow us on Twitter, too.

No Brewer birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a posthumous happy birthday to Darryl Kile, who would have turned 41.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some traveling to do.

Drink up.

Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

I know the Spiderman joke doesn't entirely make sense other than my insistence on saying Kapler plays the field like a spider on acid ... but his arms here seem to support my theory on Kapler's arachnid nature.

View full size photo »

As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.

Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.

First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:

Player	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%
B.J. Upton	37	27	10	27.03
Evan Longoria	34	23	11	32.35
Jason Bartlett	28	18	10	35.71
*Carl Crawford	27	19	8	29.63
*Carlos Pena	23	12	10	43.48
#Ben Zobrist	22	14	8	36.36
Pat Burrell	21	17	4	19.05
#Dioner Navarro	19	13	6	31.58
*Akinori Iwamura	17	14	3	17.65
#Willy Aybar	15	11	4	26.67
*Gabe Gross	14	9	5	35.71
Gabe Kapler	10	9	1	10

What does this chart tell you? For one, the number of times a runner was on first when a single was hit (1stS), then how many times that runner reached second on the play (1stS2), and how many times they reached third (1stS3). What follows thereafter is a column with the header "Third%". Essentially: the amount of times the runner reached third. Now, keep in mind this is not a perfect metric by any means. Context is important and something that lacks with such a small sample size. There's a real and almost certain chance that the distribution of batted ball degree varies strongly. By that I mean some players - a la Carlos Pena - may have experienced more hard hit balls than others - vis-a-vis Gabe Kapler -- that or smiles are the fuel for legs.

Pena and Gabe Gross really leap off the page. I think if we did a community scouting report on the best and worst baserunners those two might be near the bottom based on speed alone. Meanwhile, Akinori Iwamura would likely be near the top with Kapler, and here he is advancing to third less than Pat Burrell. Upton and Crawford are around a third of the time, which is less than Longoria, Bartlett (I think most would have him top three), Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and pretty close to Willy Aybar. I can't think of a reason why, except that the ability to steal the extra bag leads Tom Foley to hold them on plays deemed too close. The factoid that dismisses that theory is that he literally does it for nobody else if such is the case, and that makes no sense.

Now let's shift gears a bit and look at the situations in which the runner was on first when a double was hit. From there we're seeing whether they scored or reached third - the minimum advancement:

Player	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%
B.J. Upton	6	3	3	50
Evan Longoria	14	11	3	21.43
Jason Bartlett	16	9	7	43.75
*Carl Crawford	10	6	4	40
*Carlos Pena	8	6	2	25
#Ben Zobrist	9	5	4	44.44
Pat Burrell	9	8	1	11.11
#Dioner Navarro	10	8	2	20
*Akinori Iwamura	3	1	2	66.67
#Willy Aybar	7	7	0	0
*Gabe Gross	4	2	2	50
Gabe Kapler	2	2	0	0

Now the sample size is really too small to say with any trace of confidence. Iwamura, Upton, and Bartlett lead the team, while Crawford and Zobrist aren't too shabby either. Guys like Navarro, Aybar, Pena, and Burrell are low on the totem pole as well. Nothing else stands out.

Our final situation involves the runner being on second when a single is hit and whether they scored or not:

Player	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
B.J. Upton	20	7	12	60
Evan Longoria	15	5	10	66.67
Jason Bartlett	22	12	10	45.45
*Carl Crawford	24	3	20	83.33
*Carlos Pena	15	6	9	60
#Ben Zobrist	18	6	11	61.11
Pat Burrell	9	6	3	33.33
#Dioner Navarro	9	2	7	77.77
*Akinori Iwamura	18	8	9	50
#Willy Aybar	2	1	1	50
*Gabe Gross	11	9	1	9.09
Gabe Kapler	9	4	3	33.33

So here's where the speed wins out. Crawford is fantastic. Longoria, Upton, and Zobrist are good. Navarro morphs into a rollie pollie when needed, and Gabe Gross is atrocious at it. I would've expected Bartlett to be higher, but them's the breaks.

What does all of this mean? Well, if you use Dan Fox's EQBR metric - by the way, he's now in the Pittsburgh front office - then unsurprisingly Crawford and Bartlett rate well, and .... Gabe Kapler is the worst baserunner on the team by nearly two full runs.

For all the (deserved) talk about Kapler's headiness and managerial experience, is he really the worst baserunner on the team? This seems counter intuitive on multiple levels. Kapler's body type resembles that of a safety more than a linebacker or defensive end. He appears to have quick feet. He doesn't fit the profile of a laggard given his defensive prowess either. So what's going on here?

Well, random fluctuation it appears. I took each of Kapler's individual seasons as a baserunner and ran the same percentages on them. The sexiness of having data dating back over a decade is appealing and great, but do you think 23-year-old Kapler's ability to go second to home tells us much about 33-year-old Kapler's ability? Maybe an extremely small amount, but what we really need to focus on is his last three seasons. Given that managerial break in 2007, we're looking at a period of four years and comparing them to 2009. The inherent small sample size issues get in the way again, but take a look at the contrast that exists:

Time	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
3 Yr	24	19	4	17	9	5	4	44	18	7	10	56
2009	10	9	1	10	2	2	0	0	9	4	3	33

Kapler rated better in each of three categories in the previous seasons. Barring some inside information that I'm not privy to, I'll go ahead and chalk this up to mostly poor luck. If you really wanted to dive into this data pile you could find the league averages and do a Marcels type projection to get super accurate figures, but know this, the gain is minimal. The spread of baseruning talent simply isn't that thick. It results in about a win differential from the worst team to the best. That's nothing to sneeze at and I'm not saying stack your team with nine Pat Burrell types ... unless they get on base at extremely high clips, then yes, stack them up and watch the runs pile up.

Again, many thanks to B-Ref for the data.

An Interview with Rob Neyer

Erik Hahmann — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:00:41 -0000

Throughout the offseson we'll be bringing you interviews with some of today's best and brightest baseball writers. On this Friday we're lucky enough to be joined once again by Espn.com writer, author, and long suffering Royals fan, Rob Neyer. You know Rob from his SweetSpot blog on espn and the numerous books he's written on baseball and it's fascinating history He was gracious enough to take time out of his busy schedule to talk a little Rays basebal with us:

DRB: A simple question with a not so simple answer: What should the Rays do with Carl Crawford, trade him and take the prospects, let him walk and take the draft picks, or re-sign him?

Rob Neyer: He's obviously a valuable player, if less than a superstar. It's clear (at least to me) that the Rays have to trade him, so then the question becomes when. It's really up to Andrew Friedman to figure out if he'll get the greatest return this winter, or next summer. Of course, a complicating factor is that if you wait until next summer, you might be in contention (of sorts) and if you're contending it's almost impossible to trade a player like Crawford.

DRB: The Rays esentially used J.P. Howell as their closer last season even though the current regime hasn't followed the traditional "closer" philosophy. What do you think his role should be next season? The full time closer? Or would it be beneficial to let him roam free in the bullpen and use a closer by committee?

RN: I think Joe Maddon should be heartily encouraged to engage his mind and be even more creative than he's been. Maddon has done some interesting things with his relievers, but I get the sense that he's having trouble resisting the pull back to the dull middle.

DRB: In 2009 Jason Bartlett enjoyed one of the more surprising seasons in recent memory and has turned into a huge fan favorite in the area. Those who expect another season like that are wildly unrealistic. With young players like Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, should the Rays move him while his value is at its absolute peak?

RN: That would take some real guts, huh? What makes the decision even more difficult is just how out of character Bartlett's season was. Just two years ago, he was your prototypical good-field/no-hit shortstop, no different from a dozen other guys kicking around the majors (some of them without every-day jobs). Now, he suddenly explodes with brilliant hitting stats ... and at the same time, his defensive numbers go in the tank? What do you do with a guy like that? The "problem" with trading Bartlett is that if the Rays start shopping him around, the other clubs might wonder what the Rays know about Bartlett that they don't. So I suspect that if they're even entertaining the notion, they should let the other clubs come to them. You know, sort of like this ... "You want Bartlett? Gosh, we couldn't possibly let him go ... unless you really, really want him, in which case we might be able to work something out." Anyway, you get the idea. Short answer: Yes, if the Rays can get a couple of good players for Bartlett, they should probably do it.

DRB: Many fans and media alike felt the trade of Scott Kazmir was the Rays version of waving a white flag and the cause of the September swoon. What did you think of the timing of the deal?

RN: I think the Rays made that deal when they did because 1) it was by then apparent that the Rays weren't going to catch the Red Sox, and 2) the Angels made them an offer they couldn't refuse. I know it's hard for the fans to see a longtime Ray like Kazmir get away, but I don't suppose they need me to remind them that Wade Davis pitched quite well after taking Kazmir's spot in the rotation. The Rays may lack an obvious 2010 Cy Young candidate, but otherwise their rotation going forward is just about as deep as anybody's.

DRB: B.J. Upton's lackluster season has had people calling for the young centerfielder's head. Upton is still young and there's no reason he cannot be the same player he was in 2007, or even 2008 for that matter. What do you think the key will be for Upton rebounding in 2010?

RN: No reason? There must be some reason. Whatever reason caused his batting stats to plummet from 2007 to 2009 might still be there, in which case I wouldn't expect much of him in 2010. But he's cheap enough and plays well enough in center field that he's still a fantastic value relative to his salary, even if he plays again like he did this year. Throw in the obvious upside -- there might still be an MVP candidate in there somewhere -- and unless somebody blows you away with a trade offer, you just keep playing him.

DRB: The production the Rays got out of the catcher position last season was less than optimal. Dioner Navarro did not have nearly the same success as he had in 2008, though he wasn't helped at all by a BABiP of .233. Should the Rays stick with Navarro behind the dish, or look for help elsewhere?

RN: "Less than optimal" is putting it kindly. When you have to trade for Gregg Zaun in August, you're probably in trouble. Navarro's struggles this season were roughly as inexplicable as Upton's. I don't know how much Navarro's elbow was hurting him, but any time a previously decent hitter is this awful, I typically wonder if he's been both unhealthy and unlucky, and this seems to have been the case with Navarro. Considering how well he played in 2008 -- granted, he was probably over his head -- I think if the doctors say he's healthy this winter you assign him 130 games and hope for the best.

DRB: Pat Burrell didn't exactly light the world on fire in his first season in the American League. Do you think it was due to him adjusting to a different, and tougher, league? Or are his struggles due to a rapidly declining skill set?

RN: Well, again, I just think he wasn't healthy enough to play well. Granted, going from the National League to the American League and from Philadelphia's ballpark to Tampa Bay's probably didn't help much, either. I thought signing Burrell last winter was a nice (relatively) low-cost move, so I suppose I'm predisposed toward giving him another chance.

DRB: Carl Crawford again finished first in the left field portion of the Fielding Bible Awards. Is this the season he finally wins a gold glove? And if so, how much effect do you think his All-Star Game catch will have on it? [Editor's Note: This question was asked before the results were out]

RN: He is obviously a center fielder playing left field, but as you know it's awfully hard for a left fielder to win a Gold Glove. Barry Bonds won eight of them, thanks largely to his bat. Otherwise, I believe that Darin Erstad is the only left fielder in the last 25 years to win one. So Crawford's swimming against an awfully strong tide.

DRB: If you were in charge of the Rays for one day, what changes would you make? Roster or otherwise.

RN: Honestly, the Rays seem to be so well-run that I feel even more presumptuous than usual. But, if you insist ... Gabe Gross simply isn't good enough to play regularly or even semi-regularly, as he did this year. Apparently Gross will essentially be replaced by Matt Joyce next season, which of course is the obvious (and best) move. And it seems that Desmond Jennings is ready to play for the big club, too. I don't have any information about Joyce's defense at hand, but perhaps Jennings as the every-day right fielder and Joyce in a DH platoon with Burrell if the Rays can't trade him? There's a great deal of talent in this organization, and if the management can get nearly all of it on the field, I don't see why this team can't get back into serious contention for the playoffs.

DRB: What's upcoming/new in the land of Neyer?

RN: Well, two things, one of which I can talk about and one of which I cannot ... This off-season we're expanding the SweetSpot Blog Network, and by next April we hope to have blogs in place for all 30 teams. I see that you are already spoken for, but fortunately there are some other solid Rays blogs out there. And the other thing ... Well, I'm crazy-excited about it, because nothing makes me happier than being associated with good work, and any day now my name will be attached to some of the best baseball analysis that's ever been done. But I'm afraid I can't say anything more until the press release is ready, which should be any minute now ...

On behalf of everyone at DRaysBay I'd like to thank Rob for taking the time to join us today. I know we're all excited to find out more about this secret project of his. Be sure to check out his blog on espn.com and this holiday season but sure to pick up one of his books for that special someone in your life. They make a great stocking stuffer, or so I hear. You can also follow him on twitter @robneyer.