SB Nation - Josh Wilson

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:20:18 -0000

by Brian Snyder - AP

Yes, Randy Wolf is a Brewer now.

Some things to read while remembering that "port" is "left."

Welcome to day one of the Randy Wolf era (FanShot). He'll make $29.5 million over the next three seasons, plus an option for 2010. Reaction to the deal has come from everywhere:

Miller Park Drunk credits the Brewers for signing the best available free agent.
Master Reid of Quevedo at the Buffet says it's a gamble the Brewers had to take at this point.
Erik Manning of FanGraphs explains why this deal shouldn't be compared to the Jeff Suppan signing.
Jordan also offered his thoughts on that topic, and reasonable expectations for Wolf.
Adam McCalvy noted that Wolf's deal is the third richest for a pitcher in team history.
Jorge Says No! says the Brewers are "going for it" in 2010.
Babes Love Baseball thinks the Brewers overpaid for him.
Aaron Gleeman says he'd rather have the deal Rich Harden signed with the Rangers.
Wolf's contract inspired Rob Neyer to write a two parter on the economics of player salaries.
Meanwhile, Diamond Leung has a quote from Wolf about the divorce situation with the McCourts that might have led to Wolf's departure from Los Angeles.

But, the Brewers weren't done there: They decided to burn a little extra money by overpaying for bullpen help. The result is a two-year, $7.5 million deal for LaTroy Hawkins (FanShot). The move ensures the Brewers will have at least three pitchers in their bullpen earning more than $3.5 million next season (Hoffman, Riske and now Hawkins), as well as two pitchers with closing experience, both of which are 37 or older. Two more links on Hawkins: one good, one bad.

Aaron Gleeman notes that Hawkins has posted a 3.35 ERA over the last six seasons, in 379 innings.
Brian McTaggart quoted Hawkins as being "very disappointed" about leaving Houston, which is pretty much exactly what you don't want to hear from a guy you just threw a lot of perfectly good money at.

Both signings and a few other topics came up in Doug Melvin's MLB Network interview last night, which Tristarscoop chronicled for us, in case you missed it.

Since then, Doug Melvin's had an interesting 12 hours or so. First, a valet lost the keys to his car. Then, after presumably getting a ride back to the meetings, Melvin raised his offer to Craig Counsell. Melvin seems confident a deal will get done, and if he's saying so, that means he's pretty sure. Counsell has also spoken to the Reds, but it doesn't sound like there's much happening there.

Meanwhile, what once looked like a sure thing still isn't done: Mark Mulder remains unsigned, and now the Royals are also showing interest in his services.(h/t MLB Trade Rumors)

The Brewers also filled one more spot on their 40 man roster, selecting Indians lefty Chuck Lofgren in the Rule 5 Draft (FanShot). In a later post, Baseball America called him one of the best stories taken. It sounds like he's had a rough couple of years, but he's a big, athletic lefty who throws hard (90-93), so he's exactly the kind of pitcher the Brewers should be seeking out to work with Rick Peterson.

Can't get enough Triple G? Batter's Box Interactive has some photos from a Gregg Zaun at bat in Toronto last season. Zaun was also the starting point for today's Thursday Thinker: stop back for that at noon.

You still have a few hours to cast your vote for a second baseman on our BCB All Decade Team. Voting for that position closes at 4 today. Prince Fielder officially became the first Brewer elected to the team yesterday. Voting for a shortstop opened yesterday and closes at 4 tomorrow. Voting at third base, perhaps the most ~~depressing~~ interesting choice on the team, will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Astros: Acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL, and signed Brandon Lyon to a three year, $15 million deal.
Mariners: Signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. (FanShot) Also re-signed infielder Josh Wilson.
Mets: Re-negotiated their contract with Henry Blanco, due to concerns over the health of his shoulder.
Orioles: Acquired Kevin Millwood from the Rangers for reliever Chris Ray and a PTBNL.
Padres: Released pitcher Eulogio de la Cruz.
Rangers: Agreed to terms on a one year, $7.5 million deal with Rich Harden, with a club option for 2011 and acquired Mike Lowell from the Red Sox for catcher Max Ramirez.
Rays: Acquired Rafael Soriano from the Braves for reliever Jesse Chavez.
Red Sox: Acquired Boof Bonser from the Twins for a PTBNL or cash.
Royals: Released Mike Jacobs and pitcher John Bale
Tigers: Designated pitcher Freddy Dolsi and catcher Dusty Ryan for assignment.

Two former Brewers continue to search for work, and for once I'd rather have Jay Gibbons. Jason Kendall has received a two-year offer from the Royals, while Gibbons is drawing interest from the Dodgers.

While some players are looking for new teams. J.J. Hardy is busy making friends with his. He recently played in Harmon Killebrew's golf tournament, and the Hall of Famer had some nice things to say about him.

Easily the biggest trade at the meetings so far has been the three way deal involving the Tigers, Yankees and D-Backs. A lot of people are burying Arizona for giving up on Max Scherzer, but Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts and I agree: The Diamondbacks might come out ahead in this deal, trading a pitcher with an unsure future for two that might pitch in their rotation this season. Meanwhile, no one seems to mention that the Yankees traded two starters and a center fielder for one player.

Ever wonder what folks in minor league front offices do during the offseason? I don't know, but the Timber Rattlers' premiere episode of The Offseason would suggest they have some time on their hands.

With Jason Kendall gone, I guess we probably won't be talking about plunkings as much, and that's probably ok. With that said, Jeremy Greenhouse of The Baseball Analysts has a look at the probability of getting hit by a pitch, and what matchups and velocities make a batter most likely to get plunked.

It's been a pretty busy week at the Winter Meetings, and the flow of information has been dizzying at times. Just imagine how fast information would flow out if the internet was working.

Still looking for a gift for someone this holiday season? I might have a suggestion for you. Boys of Summer is a documentary chronicling Robert Cochrane and his father's summer long road trip to visit all 30 major league parks. The film is now available on DVD for the first time, with all proceeds going to the Michael J. Fox Foundation to help support research on Parkinson's Disease.

On this day in 1986, the Brewers sent Tim Crews and Tim Leary to the Dodgers for first baseman Greg Brock. Brock would go on to hit .261/.348/.387 over five seasons as a Brewer.

Happy birthday today to Doug Henry, who turns 46. Henry pitched the first four seasons of his major league career (1991-1994) as a Brewer, racking up 61 saves.

Drink up.

NL West in Review: Shortstops

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:00:43 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

If UZR wasn't so strangely hard on Tulo, the Rockies' shortstop would be even higher above his competition.

View full size photo »

This is about as suspenseful as a modern day cookie-cutter horror flick. Not even our pudgy four-letter Philly fan can deny the proper anointment of the NL West's top shortstop in 2009. However, it wasn't quite so clear just last March.

Coming off of a miserable 0.8 WAR season in 2008 (at the same level as Brian Barton and Carlos Gonzalez), Troy Tulowitzki silenced all critics in 2009, giving the Rockies a clear advantage over every team in the West. In fact, the 6.85 WAR that Tulo, Barmes and Quintanilla generated represent the strongest infield position of any team in the division.

Even considering Tulo's down year, the preseason projections had the Rockies as clear favorites in the NL West, with Los Angeles, Arizona, San Francisco and San Diego following in order. Colorado delivered in a big way, representing the division's sole above average offensive unit. Everth Cabrera's surprising rookie season ruined what would have otherwise been an accurate ranking:


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Colorado	3	.298	32	96	.377	.536	.387	6.85
2. Los Angeles	4	.271	9	54	.330	.371	.321	3.64
3. Arizona	3	.265	12	73	.332	.417	.326	2.49
4. San Diego	4	.231	4	43	.319	.328	.304	1.98
5. San Francisco	4	.255	11	72	.306	.353	.296	0.74

Shortstop was the most stable position among divisional infield positions, as all five teams had clear full-time starters from start to finish. With the positional RAR set at +7.5, here is the graphical RAR representation:

For the full rankings and team rundowns, turn the corner.

Seventeen different men manned shortstop, including Josh Wilson twice (for San Diego and Arizona), and all but five were above replacement level:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	628	.296	32	92	.377	.551	.362	-1.2	5.07
2	Rafael Furcal	LAD	671	.266	8	45	.331	.368	.321	8.0	3.24
3	Stephen Drew	AZ	586	.262	12	65	.320	.432	.334	3.4	3.00
4	Everth Cabrera	SDP	437	.255	2	31	.343	.362	.335	-11.7	0.84
5	Augie Ojeda	AZ	116	.289	0	6	.381	.371	.331	3.2	0.83
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
14	Blake DeWitt	LAD	5	.000	0	0	.200	.000	.141	-0.4	-0.08
15	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	119	.196	1	6	.314	.268	.272	-1.8	-0.12
16	Kevin Frandsen	SFG	20	.056	0	0	.150	.056	.119	-0.2	-0.21
17	Chris Burke	SDP	76	.214	1	5	.276	.314	.268	-2.6	-0.23
18	Josh Wilson	SDP	42	.108	0	1	.195	.162	.141	-2.0	-0.55

Edgar Renteria was one of the first signings last offseason, before the market crashed. Consequently, his contract looks silly now, as he just finished the first year of a two year $18million contract. Nine million of that will come in 2010, with an obvious $500k buyout to be exercised next offseason. The option year in 2010 is for $10.5million. If Renteria falters there more, the Giants could do a lot worse than using Juan Uribe there.

The 2009 'Pitties: Play of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Mark Reynolds vs. Brad Lidge on July 28. And boom goes the ~~dynamite~~ thermonuclear device (large megaton variety).

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It's time to start the process of handing our the AZ SnakePit end-of-season awards. It may not be a year which will live long in fan memory - to be honest, it's probably one we would like to forget, sooner rather than later - but there were certainly moments that we'll treasure. And that's where we start, with the Play of the Year 'Pittie. There are six nominees this season, covering plays offensive, defensive and managerial, all the way from May through September. After the jump, you'll find details of the nominees, and in case you want to relive any of those moments, you'll also find links to video of the plays in question.

May 4. Triple-play vs. LAD
Immediately after booting a ground-ball for an error, Josh Wilson started the first triple-play for Arizona since May 2000. With two runners going, Casey Blake scorched a line-drive,which Wilson snagged, flipped to Felipe Lopez for the second out, with the ball then going to Conor Jackson on first to end the inning. However, in the dugout afterward, Wilson got stick from his team-mates for not stepping on second and tagging the runner arriving from first for an even-rarer unassisted triple play. "That's what they all said. That just never crossed my mind. I thought I heard Felipe saying, 'Throw it, throw it,' and knew that we had the chance to get the outs there. That's something I don't think too many guys out there would think about."

May 26: Chris Young saves the day vs. SDP
This looked like another D-backs meltdown. With a 6-4 lead in the ninth, and Tony Pena and Chad Qualls both unavailable, the Padres loaded the bases with no outs against Juan Gutierrez. Scott Hairston hit into a double-play - a run scored and the tying man was at third with two down. Then Kevin Kouzmanoff latched onto a 95-mph fastball, smacking it to deep right-center. The pitcher said, "At first when he hit it, I put my hands up, and when I saw C.Y. running back and running back, I thought, 'Oh my God.'" However, Young, going at full-speed, was just able to track the ball down at the warning track, preserving victory for the Diamondbacks and Max Scherzer, who had pitched seven innings of two-run ball, as well as ending the Padres' 10-game win streak.

July 21: Mark Reynolds dives into the stands vs. COL [and just about everyone else]
If not getting quite as much coverage as his offensive explosion - or even his strikeouts - Reynolds' defense has improved by just about every metric at third-base this year. The errors are down significantly, and he was one of the most-seen players on Baseball Tonight's Web Gems [their awards show is on Monday, ESPN2, at 5pm AZ time]. Particularly in the second-half of the season, it seemed hardly a series went by without Mark landing on some poor/lucky spectator in the front row down the third-base side. The one linked above is perhaps the most impressive such example - but you can replace that play with this one. Or this one. Or even this one. Never say we don't give you choices here at the SnakePit....

July 28: Mark Reynolds, 481 ft. home-run vs. PHI
With Arizona 4-1 down in the ninth, Justin Upton drew a walk to lead off the inning and bring Mark Reynolds to the plate. Special K delivered his 28th home-run of the year, a titanic blast to left, which landed in Friday's Front Row. Initially estimated at 464 feet, the number was revised upwards by Hit Tracker Online to 481 feet - the second-longest home-run of the entire 2009 season, and tied for the longest in Chase Field history, matching the one hit by Justin Upton on July 6th, 2008. [In case you're wondering, the site gives Richie Sexson's Jumbotron shot a distance of 463 ft] It was Mark's most impressive bomb of 2009, one of fifteen over 440 feet, as he won the Golden Sledgehammer for the longest standard distance on his home-runs.

August 7: AJ Hinch gets ejected vs. WAS
It took a while before new manager AJ Hinch "popped his cherry" and got ejected from a game. However, when it happened, it was certainly memorable. Trent Oeltjen legged out an infield single to lead off the bottom of the eighth, but was called out by first-base umpire Jerry Crawford. Hinch surged from the dugout and the two got into an impressive nose-to-nose argument, with the rookie manager doing a decent job of standing up to the 32-year veteran, who had probably thrown out more managers than AJ had made pitching changes. Also worth nothing was the backing Hinch got from some of his players: Reynolds described it after the game as "awesome," and Dan Haren chipped in with his vocal two cents from the dugout too.

September 26: Chad Tracy’s pinch-hit grand-slam vs. SDP
It wasn't a great year for Chad, and his future here is cloudy, to say the least, but he delivered a blow when we needed it most. He came off the bench with the bases loaded in the seventh and Arizona down by a run, to smack an 0-2 pitch off Luke Gregerson over the fence in right-center. It was the sole pinch-hit slam in the NL this year to turn a deficit into a lead [the other in the majors was by the Rays Ben Zobrist on April 17], and the first such in D-backs' franchise history - it was only the third PH slam of any kind for AZ, following ones by David Dellucci and Tony Clark. Said Tracy on the night, "It was awesome. I finally got a pitch I could handle... That's the first time I've had a curtain call. It's a pretty unbelievable feeling."

Poll

What was the Diamondbacks' 2009 Play of the Year?

May 4. Triple-play vs. LAD

35 votes

May 26: Chris Young saves the day vs. SDP

9 votes

July 21: Mark Reynolds dives into the stands vs. COL

28 votes

July 28: Mark Reynolds, 481 ft. home-run vs. PHI

31 votes

August 7: AJ Hinch gets ejected vs. WAS

8 votes

September 26: Chad Tracy’s pinch-hit grand-slam vs. SDP

31 votes

142 votes | Poll has closed

80-73, Game Notes

Jeff — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 04:49:21 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Seattle Mariners Franklin Gutierrez, left, and Ken Griffey Jr. knock helmets in celebration of Gutierrez's two-run home run during the third inning of a baseball game in Toronto while Santa Claus looks on with particular interest.

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One bad pitch.

Technically, a pitcher's results aren't the best way to evaluate a performance. One game gives you only a limited sample size of batter decisions and swings, and, say, a handful of mis-hits of bad pitches or solid hits of good ones can lead to a misleading judgment. The most accurate way of deducing how well a pitcher pitched would be to strip away the hitters entirely and look simply at the quality and location of the pitches he threw.

However, that's a real nuisance, and though most of the time it would provide valuable information, sometimes - on nights like this one - you don't need to get super granular to understand how well a guy was throwing. This was Felix Hernandez pitching as well as Felix Hernandez has ever pitched. That much was readily apparent just from watching his fastball dance and his curveball snap and the Blue Jays flail away. Felix has pitched this well before, but I don't know that he's ever pitched better, and in the end, I feel like he plowed through those eight innings having made just the one mistake. It was a big mistake, mind you, and one that cost him three runs, but if you're like me, there's nothing better than watching Felix be exceptional, and today, for eight innings, Felix was exceptional. Cheers to Josh Wilson, because Felix deserved that win. Felix deserved two wins.

A start that some have said might knock Felix out of Cy Young consideration may have been his best start of the year.

Let me just show some things to you:

71% strikes
16% swinging strikes
75% groundballs

Felix faced 34 batters tonight. He got ahead 0-1 on 18 of them and got to two-strike counts on 19 of them. And not only did he threw 71% strikes - he threw 71% strikes despite Chris Guccione robbing him of at least eight or nine other pitches in the zone, which he didn't do to Romero nearly as much. So that's 71% going on 80%. It was just...Jesus, Felix threw a ton of fastballs, but he threw them in such a way that he looked like the version of Felix Hernandez that we saw him going for so often in seasons previous. We complained a lot in the past that he relied too heavily on his fastball despite not having real good command. Tonight he had that command, and he showed what he can do when he has it. He was alternating between a straight four-seamer and a two-seamer that kept diving at ankles, and once he had those heaters established, he was pretty much free to do whatever he wanted. People used to point out that sometimes batters swung against Felix like they knew what was coming. The Blue Jays didn't know what was coming, and they looked like it. In the bottom of the fifth Jose Bautista swung at a high slider over the plate while ducking out of the way.

Felix is a big game pitcher. I wasn't aware that today was a big game, but based on his performance, Felix really, really wants that Cy Young. Even if he says he'd vote for Greinke.

How good was Felix tonight? In the middle innings I sent Dave from USSM a text saying I hoped he was watching. Dave texted back that he loves his wife more than he loves Felix. 40 minutes later he felt compelled to email me an explanation.

It was good to see Franklin Gutierrez take Romero deep in the third, because since August 11th he'd been batting just .228 with a .592 OPS. He had clearly cooled off, coming in today with something more in line with the consensus offensive expectation before the year. Of course, despite his now-current .753 OPS is the fact that Fangraphs lists him as a 5 WAR player. It's actually kind of a good thing in a way that he's slumped, because it's provided further evidence that Guti can still make a positive contribution even when he's not swinging the bat real well. Franklin has been worth about 35 fewer runs at the plate than Mark Teixeira, and he's still been the more valuable player. As Dave talked about a little while back, we probably can't count on Franklin repeating 2009's defensive numbers in the future, but even allowing for a bit of regression, he is a very, very, very good player, and among the best outfielders in baseball.

Jose Bautista likes his lips so much he gave them an underscore.

I haven't seen a whole lot of Matt Tuiasosopo in the field so far, but one thing that became apparent today was that he needs a lot of work at second turning double plays. Twice he turned potential DPs into fielder's choices, once by making a bad flip to second and once by making a bad pivot and throw to first with the runner bearing down. On the plus side, he made a really good no-look sweep tag on a wide throw to catch John McDonald stealing, so his instincts seem good. He just, y'know, needs work.

The top of the ninth saw Adrian Beltre get locked into an 11-pitch showdown against Jeremy Accardo. After getting ahead 1-0, Beltre swung at nine consecutive balls out of the zone before grounding out on a fastball down the middle. A lot of fans and broadcasters would say that Beltre did a good job of battling and staying in. Smarter people would call him retarded.

Going back to that Tuiasosopo flip - with a man on and none out in the bottom of the fourth, Adam Lind hit a grounder to Tui, who flipped the ball high to Josh Wilson. Wilson came down ahead of the runner and threw to first, but the ump called the runner safe at second. Replays confirmed that Wilson didn't touch the bag. Apparently getting the phantom tag call is conditional upon completing the turn without screwing up. If you do everything smoothly and don't touch the base, the runner's out. If you make a little mistake along the way, tough noogies.

Josh Wilson's two-run triple in the eighth was the big hit of the game, but it was very nearly a one-run triple, as Bill Hall ambled his way home and narrowly avoided the tag after a strong relay. This isn't the first time we've seen Hall at something less than full speed. It isn't the second or third or fourth time, either. He's nursing a hurt quad, so I'm willing to excuse him for taking things at a more leisurely pace, but is our situation really so dire that this is a guy we have to be playing every day? So Langerhans is kind of banged up. And Saunders is getting special treatment. I understand. But why not just throw someone like Tui or Wilson out there and let Hall get some rest? I know that Wilson and Tui don't have any experience in the outfield, but I'd wager that an inexperienced outfielder is probably going to be better than a crippled one.

Ken Griffey Jr. led off the eighth with a fly ball to center that Vernon Wells ran down in front of the track. As the ball settled into his glove, Dave Sims announced "...and...IT'S GONE!" I don't have anything witty to add. I've just never quite seen that before. I mean, wow.

Ichiro: 2-5, .3554
Mauer: DNP, .3714

79-73, Game Notes

Jeff — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 04:44:57 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

My ankles just screamed.

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Akinori Iwamura's triple narrowly eluded Franklin Gutierrez. Michael Saunders was barely beaten home by a throw by Ben Zobrist. B.J. Upton's go-ahead single was a chopper to third that's normally a routine out. Bill Hall's long fly in the ninth was caught at the top of the wall. Baseball is a game of inches, and had just one or two of these plays gone the other way, we would've had a completely different meaningless result.

Like all Mariner fans, I am frustrated by Brandon Morrow, but to his credit he remains a guy I'll drive home a little too fast to watch. The very nature of inconsistency and unpredictability is such that there always exists the possibility that he'll put it together for seven or eight innings, and a pitcher with that assortment putting it together for a little while can be something to behold.

I try to remind myself of that every time I come away disappointed. This was just the latest Morrow appearance featuring a couple steps forward and a couple steps back, and though he looked terrific for a little while there and did a great job of tying up Upton in the fourth, he didn't have a whole lot working and came undone in the sixth when consecutive walks got him yanked after just 73 pitches. I don't know if this was the plan all along, or if Wak had seen enough, or if he didn't want Brandon to let some negatives erase his positives, or whatever, but for better or worse, few pitchers possess Morrow's ability to stop and start in the blink of an eye. Today those final nine pitches turned this from an effort to build off into something a lot more familiar.

Maybe this is a situation similar to that of Ian Snell. Maybe it'd be for the best to just let Morrow work on what he's working on and take another look at him next March. I dunno. All I can say is that, right now, Brandon Morrow is to me as pancakes are to Mitch Hedberg.

Remember Josh Wilson's hot streak? Today he crossed the 100 PA mark with the Mariners and stands with a .221/.267/.368 batting line. I understand that none of us are accustomed to getting much of anything out of shortstop, so any positive contributions from the position are amplified, and Wilson's shown a pretty good ability to make that catch over the shoulder, but this is all he is, and if what he is gets you excited, that's less a celebration of Wilson and more an indictment of his predecessors.

Sometime in the middle innings, Dave Sims remarked that the Mariners [were] an oustanding 32-17 in one-run games. "There's the difference between this year and last year," added Mike Blowers. Indeed, the difference between this year and last year is that this year we have more wins.

In the top of the eighth, with a man on first and a one-run lead, Kenji Johjima worked a 3-0 count before fouling out to the catcher. I can think of no clearer sign that you just royally fucked up.

This was a bad night for the broadcast's timing, by the way. In the fourth, Sims mentioned that Morrow was doing a great job of pitching to contact, and Morrow then immediately struck out Upton with three swinging strikes. In the sixth, Sims and Blowers were talking about how much better Garrett Olson is out of the bullpen, and just as they were saying that he doesn't have to think as much in relief he allowed a two-run triple off the wall. Then in the eighth they ran footage of Mark Lowe discussing how good the team's been when it scores four runs, and Lowe proceeded to cough up the tying and winning runs. I'm glad the conversation never steered towards Felix's contract situation.

An 8.5 inning game between two teams going nowhere featured twelve pitchers, with exactly none of the relievers being untested prospects. Joe Maddon used three pitchers to face four batters in the eighth. Sims said with just a little choler in his voice after the final out that this was managed as if it were a Game 7, and though I get what they were doing and find winning as much as possible to be a noble intent, Christ, really? Brian Shouse threw one pitch. Though all the managerial intervention may have improved each team's chances of winning, I'm sure they could've achieved a reasonable approximation by doing less. If baseball wants to try and make itself more universally watchable, it has to do something about mid-inning pitching changes.

Of course, the funny thing about pitching changes is that once they get to a certain point, you just want it to become a battle of wills, duration be damned. When Maddon went to his third pitcher of the eighth, I wanted Beltre to get on base, not just because I wanted more runs, but also because I wanted to see how far Maddon would go. Beltre singled, and though Springer stayed in, he fell behind Johjima 3-0, and God only knows what would've happened had he walked instead of popped out. Hannahan's left-handed. Better go to the bullpen! What if Hannahan reaches? Then you've got the righty Wilson to deal with. Better go to the bullpen! And if Wilson reaches, you've got the lefties Saunders and Ichiro...

Pitching changes, like everything annoying, are annoying, then more annoying, then less annoying, then hilarious.

Making his first start in two and a half weeks, Michael Saunders went 3-3 with two hits the other way and one unfortunate play at the plate that should've been attempted one fly ball earlier. Based on a sample size of this game, players perform at a considerably higher level when they pretty much get 16 days completely off. We're gonna need a bigger roster.

Ichiro: 2-4, .3550
Mauer: 1-4, .3714

Let's Talk Josh Wilson's Numbers

Matthew — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 19:11:36 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Josh Wilson's recent homer binge might be enough to buy him another full year in the Majors somewhere next season. That's pretty cool for him.

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With his three recent home runs, Josh Wilson is hot! news. Largely ignored when he was acquired and called up, who is Josh Wilson and does he offer anything long term?

HISTORY

Josh Wilson was drafted in the third round by the Florida Marlins during the 99 draft, three picks before Justin Morneau and nine picks before the amazing Willie Bloomquist. He performed well in Rookie and Short Season A ball leading to playing in A ball at the age of 19 for two weeks and for a full season at 2001. That year, at age 20, Wilson posted a .285/.325/.383 line which is pretty underwhelming, but coming off a combined .868 OPS the year before and still toiling at short stop, there was enough promise for the Marlins to start Wilson at High A in 2002. Despite the promotion, Wilson essentially repeated his 2001 numbers in the higher level and earned himself an end of the season promotion to Double A Portland. Wilson finished the year with an astounding 13 home runs.

2003 saw Wilson repeat Double A for the entire year and fall off the map with a .665 OPS. He second go around in 2004 through produced an .882 OPS with 10 home runs in just 81 games and he made his way up to Triple-A for the first time where he has since spent time every single year except 2007. 2004 and 2005 saw Wilson post a .750 OPS, but in Albuquerque, a notorious launching pad in the PCL.

Wilson was sent to Colorado in the 2005-2006 offseason as part of a conditional deal and sent to Colorado Springs where he posted another inflated Triple-A line and then granted free agency and signed by the Nationals where he got into 15 games and managed a lone hit in 25 plate appearances. He was then selected off waivers by the Rays in May where he played in 90 regular games with a .644 OPS.

The journeying continued that winter being picked off by the Pirates on waivers where he would be until August of 2008 when he was again part of a conditional deal, this time to Boston for two months and then granted free agency yet again and signed by Arizona this past offseason.

2009 AND BEYOND?

Wilson has played for Arizona, San Diego (of course!) and Seattle this season with samples too small to pin anything down. And that has sort of been the mark on Wilson for the past five years, moving around so often that it's tough to get a real statistical read on him. But if anything, the constant moving around tells you how teams feel about Josh Wilson.

All told, we have a 415 plate appearance sample of Wilson at the big leagues between 2007 and 2009 that tells us what we already knew originally with our indifference, he doesn't hit the ball hard very often (low % of line drives), he's about average on plate patience and makes contact a good percentage of the time, but teams are unafraid of his power ability and are going to pump him strikes, making it difficult for him to draw walks.

Fielding-wise, his 2007 UZR was terrible at short, but his UZR at second and his 2009 UZR at short are essentially neutral. Problem is, again, really small samples and a scouting report would really be useful to complement the data available.

Overall package? Unless something dramatically changes or reveals itself with more playing time (unlikely), Wilson has too little pop to be a productive hitter and his upside with the glove is probably that of an average defender at short. Basically, and his movement around the league further attests to this, Josh Wilson defines what a replacement level player is. He might be useful to have hanging around in Tacoma for instances such as Jack Wilson going on the disabled list, but Josh Wilson should play no prominent role in the 2010 Mariners.

Interestingly, Wilson has on three occasions, once with Tampa, once with Arizona and once with San Diego, pitched an inning in relief. He flashes a mid-80s fastball, a curve and a changeup!

62-59, Game Notes

Jeff — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 01:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Look at this picture. Look at this picture and submit it to memory. Done? Terrific. Now have fun not sleeping tonight.

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Here's a fun fact for you: the Mariners, at one point, have had the lead in ten of their last eleven games. Over that span they are 5-6. It's weird to think about since so many of us wrote the season off weeks ago, but turn a few of those blown leads into wins and we're still right in the thick of the hunt. Who knew? Of course, as it happens we're not right in the thick of the hunt. Y'know. Because we blew the leads.

It happens every time. Whenever a generally reliable closer blows a save, people have to start asking what happened, as if something were wrong. Sometimes something is wrong. But most of the time, it was just a bad game, and that's what we saw today. David Aardsma isn't hurt. There isn't anything dragging him down mentally. He's just David Aardsma, and even this effective version of David Aardsma is going to have his forgettable days, because if he didn't he'd be Mariano Rivera.

When you're dealing with something that only happens six or eight times a year, like a blown save or a Carlos Silva quality start, people tend to read too much into it, because it's rare. The truth of the matter, though, is that something like a blown save is only considered rare because closers only get 40-50 save opportunities in a season. Blown saves don't happen that often because closers don't pitch that often. Don't worry about David Aardsma. He remains now the same thing he was this morning - a good but by no means excellent reliever. Though he blew it today, overall he's done more good than bad.

Let's make one thing clear right now: the Mariners didn't light up Jarrod Washburn. While he allowed four home runs, there seemed to be an awful lot of wind blowing balls out to left, and the M's only hit a handful of balls hard all day. Jarrod struck four guys out, walked one, and pretty much pitched like a half-decent starter who gave up some unlucky dingers.

But that's precisely what made today so much fun. Remember this? Allow me to compose a list:

2003: 7.4% home runs per ball in air (not adjusted for park)
2004: 6.6%
2005: 5.5%
2006: 6.7%
2007: 5.8%
2008: 5.8%
2009 (Mariner): 4.3%

That 4.3% sure looks like an outlier, right? Following the trade I expected Jarrod to look more like normal in the home run department. And, well

2009 (Tiger): 18.6%
2009 (Overall): 6.3%

Washburn has allowed 43 balls in the air as a Tiger, and eight of them have cleared the fence. That's absurd, and as we saw today some of those homers were complete flukes, but at the end of the day what matters most is that, in just a couple weeks, he's pulled his home run rate all the way back up (down?) to normal. He's had the good luck. Today he had the bad luck. Regression doesn't usually happen like this, but it sure is fun to watch it happen to a guy who isn't on your team anymore.

It's not that I wish ill on Jarrod Washburn. Truth be told, I don't really care about him one way or another. If he wins the World Series with Detroit, great, and if he doesn't, great. It's more that I'm just a sucker for validation. Jarrod Washburn isn't good. We've been saying that for months. People resisted. Hopefully now those people have learned their lesson. All of us - we're happy to admit when we're wrong. It's fun to be wrong. Being wrong is how you learn. We weren't wrong about Jarrod Washburn.

On a related note, a lot of people have said they'd like to re-sign Washburn because he's a perfect fit for the stadium and the defense. Newsflash: that doesn't make Washburn unique. Any lefty flyballer is a perfect fit for the stadium and the defense. Saying that a guy would be able to benefit from his environment is not an endorsement of the guy; it's an endorsement of the environment.

I should note that I did wish ill on Washburn when Kenji Johjima was at the plate. I don't know who was in the wrong and who was in the right back when that whole thing first went down, but what I do know is that there was friction between the two guys, and it's fun to see the guy we have get revenge against the guy we don't. It was a pretty weak home run, but it still left the yard, and if I were Kenji I'd be smiling for days. I love that he hit it off the Dolphin. I love it.

As much as it sucks to lose a game in the ninth, the M's very nearly lost this game in the eighth. With two on and one out, Alex Avila lined a Shawn Kelley fastball into left-center that Franklin Gutierrez was barely able to flag down. With some other center fielders, that ball either bounces or gets all the way to the wall. Then, with two out, Placido Polanco popped a ball behind second that Josh Wilson raced after and caught on a snowcone. Wilson himself says he thought the ball was going to fall in, and these are the moments at which the relationship between ERA and defense becomes abundantly clear. This pitching staff is pretty uninspiring. This defense is otherworldly.

Speaking of Josh Wilson - Wilson doesn't really mean anything to us. We as fans don't think particularly high of him, and by bringing in Bill Hall, it's clear that the Mariners organization doesn't intend to keep Wilson around for the long haul. So he's not playing to impress us so much as he's playing to impress someone. He's right on the edge. Every day that Josh Wilson spends in a game is a day he spends fighting for his big league career, and it's with that in mind that you have to admire what he's been able to do of late. Since coming back up a week ago, Wilson's hit .320 and made some remarkable plays in the field. He's shown the sort of energy and spark that endears a guy to a coaching staff, and to be able to do what he's done under the constant pressure of fighting for his livelihood...Wilson isn't the kind of guy you really want to have playing a lot for your team, but he's the kind of guy you want to see succeed. People like Wilson don't get a lot of chances. Josh has seized this one, and that could end up meaning the world.

Call It a Comeback! Tigers 5, Mariners 3

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:55:15 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Once again, we ask: How awesome is Alex Avila? Merely awesome or totally awesome?

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To repeat a point made in our post-game thread last night, these are the types of games that make a baseball fan feel alive.

Rick Porcello pitched well in his first start since serving his five-game suspension, locking himself in a duel with Felix Hernandez. Kid Rick racked up a career-high eight strikeouts while holding the Mariners to one run and four hits in almost six innings of work.

(Porcello also continued a baffling trend of allowing home runs to guys who don't normally hit them. Josh Wilson hammered a change-up into the left-field bullpen in the sixth inning, joining Ronny Cedeno, Chone Figgins, and Ryan Langerhans as noted sluggers who have taken Kid Rick deep this season.)

But a win is so much sweeter when nearly lost, and this one was jeopardized in the eighth inning as Bobby Seay intentionally walked his way through the Mariners lineup for a presumably favorable lefty-on-lefty match-up. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Seay failed in each of those instances, giving up a double to Ichiro Suzuki, a sacrifice fly to Ken Griffey, Jr., and a walk to Jack Hannahan. Two Seattle runs scored, and it looked as if the Tigers would waste yet another strong pitching performance.

But the Mariners' bullpen gave the game right back, when Hernandez had to leave the game with a cramp in his hamstring. Mark Lowe allowed a leadoff homer to Alex Avila (an impressive opposite-field shot, at that) igniting Detroit's comeback chances. Four of the next five Tigers batters reached base (aided by an error from Wilson at shortstop), the most important being Miguel Cabrera, whose single up the middle drove in the tying and go-ahead runs.

Cabrera also contributed to an insurance run in a rather unconventional fashion. It appeared as if he'd been picked off first base for the final out of the inning. But while he was caught in a rundown between first and second, Ryan Raburn (pinch-running for Carlos Guillen) took advantage of the distraction and scored from third.

Yes, the guy who most people figured was ticketed for Triple-A Toledo when Aubrey Huff was acquired from Baltimore on Monday stole home plate. It was one of many comebacks at Comerica Park on Tuesday night.

Comment of the Night:

Oh noes!

We can’t afford to conseayd a run here…

by explosivo2k2

And your runner-up, which is kind of the visual aid to the above remark.

61-58, Game Notes

Jeff — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 05:23:56 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

We hugging? We not hugging? Dude you gotta tell me quick

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I watched it all go down, and it made me mad. Then I remembered that the win didn't really matter, and it made me indifferent. Then I remembered that the win mattered to Felix, and it made me mad.

Earlier this week I was thinking about launching a series entitled Why Mark Lowe Is Different. Or maybe What's Different About Mark Lowe? Or possibly Mark Lowe: Different! Why? I don't know, I didn't really think about the name. But what it was going to be was a series of posts testing out different theories as to why Lowe's been pitching so much better. I gave him a lot of crap earlier in the season for pitching well below his ability, but then it looked like he had turned it around, and I wanted to know why. I intended to begin with the hypothesis that nothing had changed, and that it was all just statistical variation, and go from there. Pitch type, pitch movement, pitch location, delivery, and so on - in the pursuit of knowledge, no stone imaginable may go unturned.

Well I'm glad I didn't start running that series because that's three games in a row now that Lowe's really struggled. Not that I don't think he's better now than he was earlier in the year - he had a 1.6 K/BB and 8% swinging strike rate through July 5th and stands at 5.3 and 14% since - but that just would've been really bad timing, and I'm thinking that maybe I should just hold out until the offseason before writing anything like that. You know, just in case. Because the thing about relievers is that on any given night they can make anyone look like an idiot.

Mark Lowe: better pitcher, lousy night. Though he deserved a little better, he made far too many mistakes.

Of course, the whole eighth inning wouldn't have happened as it did were it not for a couple fielding miscues that kind of flew under the radar a little bit. The first - a chopper that got by Josh Wilson's glove - came after a homer and a line drive had already caused viewers to sour on Lowe, and the second - a blown pickoff by Russ Branyan that allowed Ryan Raburn to steal home - came after Detroit had already taken the lead and caused Mariner fans to mentally surrender. Mark Lowe wasn't good, but those four runs were by no means all his fault.

Those were big mistakes. I imagine that Wilson will escape blame on account of his night at the plate and that chopper being a tough short-hop, but if he makes that play - as I think most big league shortstops would be able to do - there's a man on second and two out instead of men on the corners and one, and that's huge. In the former situation, Lowe's one out away and has some wiggle room. In the latter situation, the tying run's 90 feet away and odds are good that he'll have to see Miguel Cabrera. The win expectancy swing of that error was -22.5%, as compared to the +16.6% boost from Wilson's home run, and that error took us from being heavy favorites to a coin flip. That's an unfortunate way for Wilson to remember what should've been a happy night.

As for the other miscue, it's funny; rundowns fall into the category of plays that're really hard to execute yourself but that you expect Major Leaguers to pull off with 100% efficiency. Which isn't to say that I excuse Branyan for his mistake, but the whole time he was chasing Cabrera I was thinking "oh God he has to watch two guys and throw on the run." So although I was disappointed by the result, I understood how it could happen. Just like with the grounder to Wilson, Branyan usually does better and knows what he did wrong, but it just so happened that today they both screwed up in the same inning and as such made a significant contribution to the losing effort. Sorry Felix :(

Felix Hernandez (I'm spelling his name out now at least once for Search Engine Optimization!) came out of the game after seven innings and 106 pitches. As you've probably heard by now, the reason he didn't come back out for the eighth was because his legs started cramping up. Not that he would've been able to go much longer anyway, given his season high of 117, but hey, who knows what would've happened?

That's the downside. Literally the only downside to his start is that minor leg cramps ended his night at 106 pitches. Everything before that was peaches. What is there that's left to be said? Were I in a more eloquent mood I could probably describe his performance with a poem or a fake dialogue, but I feel boring, so I'll just tell you that he missed 14 bats and struck out nine guys while walking one. He whiffed the left-handed and awesome Curtis Granderson three times. And he featured a pitch that - I'm going to say it - looked an awful lot like the Royal Curve I at one point thought he had lost. It was a sharp curve with a lot of break both left and down, and it made the Tigers look helpless. Of the 18 he threw, they only swung at three. And hit one. I love that pitch. Not that Felix really needs a fourth good pitch, but I like when he has it because it lets me feel smug. "Oh, Johan has a good changeup? That's neat. Felix has a good everything."

A wonderful start that, even without the win, should help his standing in the race for the Cy Young.

My friend texted me just now to say that Kyle Blanks just hit an inside-the-park home run. Holy shit I love Kyle Blanks

Clete Thomas led off the bottom of the second with a foul pop-up down the third base line. As Ryan Langerhans ran in pursuit and slid to make a catch, a fan reached out a good three or four feet onto the field to interfere. However, rather than call the batter out, umpire Dan Iassonga ruled it a foul ball, offering this justification:

"He said he saw the fan interfere but because because he (Langerhans) was sliding and it wasn't just a routine catch, he couldn't just award him that,'' said Wakamatsu, who ran out to argue.

Here's the play in question:

I get what Iassonga means, and there's probably no 100% right or 100% wrong solution to this. But that's an awful long way for a fan to reach out, and were it not for his glove, I'm pretty sure Langerhans makes that catch. Even had this happened in our favor, rather than to our detriment, I would've supported a ruling of fan interference.

The game ended with a 12-pitch strikeout of Jose Lopez by Fernando Rodney with the tying run on second base. The at bat began with two strikes, but Lopez took three balls and fouled off six more pitches before finally swinging through a low fastball. People love to talk about how at bats like this are a battle of wills between the hitter and the pitcher, but the struggle nobody talks about is the struggle felt by the fans who want to get up, applaud, and cheer for the final strike.

After Pitch 1: Atta boy Rodney, great pitch! Two more!
After Pitch 2: One more! One more to go! Yeah baby c'mooooonnnnnn Fernan-DO!
After Pitch 3: Good pitch, he barely touched it! You got this! WOOOOOOO
After Pitch 4: No biggie, no biggie, gotta waste one. Let's get him now, your pitch!
After Pitch 5: Whoaaa can't believe he held up! Great pitch! Do it again, he can't touch you!
After Pitch 6: Barely got a piece! You just have to
After Pitch 7: WHERE WAS THAT
After Pitch 8: In control, in control, it's...c'mon now
After Pitch 9: uh
After Pitch 10: fuck this COME ONNNN
During Pitch 11: :sits down:
After Pitch 11: :makes a scene of standing back up, sighs: :claps very slowly: all right listen up now you piddly son of a bitch
After Pitch 12: YEAHHHHHHHHHHHH

Tonight, 33,710 Tiger fans were given a reason to find Jose Lopez annoying. They won't necessarily remember why, but they'll remember what. When Lopez plays the Tigers three years down the road, one Tigers fan will say to another "oh God I hate this guy," and when the other Tigers fan asks the first Tigers fan why, the first Tigers fan will reply "I dunno he just seems like one of those guys."

Powered by #55, Yanks win their 115th game 11-1 on 15 hits: CC throws 105, blanks 10

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 06:21:54 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

No one makes offensive domination look so awkward quite as awesomely as Hideki.

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They DID say the Yankees were hurt, right? I mean, didn't they just travel across the country after playing 10 games in a row, 2 of which went into extra innings? My dad used to say, "Never look back--they're gaining on you." I'm not sure what this applies to, since I don't know who exactly could have been "gaining" on me when I was under the age of 10, per se, but tonight the Yanks demonstrated in their rout of the Mariners, that they have approximately zero intention of losing ground to anyone on their heels.

Ian Snell got utterly annihilated tonight, giving up 9 hits and 8 runs--unfortunately for him, after his team would record their final out on offense, Snell had no choice but to return to the mound to see what other tanks, cannons, and bombs the Yankee army would subject him to at the top of each inning. Seattle had used up 11 relievers in the past 3 days in a careless lack of foresight that resulted in their shaky hurler with back against the wall, so to speak.

Then there's New York's pitcher at the other end of the spectrum. CC Sabathia was dealing, once again, giving up only 3 hits in 8 IP, and whiffing 10. Another seemingly effortless outing from the brontosaurus who's now taken 5 of his last 6. There are a number of stellar arms in the league, but what separates the best is their ability to summon an inner David Cone and mix raw talent with creative strategy. And that's exactly what CC and the rest of our boys did tonight.

After hurting his ankle in yesterday's 11 inning win, Derek Jeter circumvented the whole issue by simply going yard in his second at-bat. Smart boy. The rest of the offense followed suit--not only did the entire team get on base, but everyone who hit, except for Jose Molina, had a multi-hit game, hghlighted of course by Hideki Matsui's burgeoning hot streak (4-5, 2HRs, 5 RBIs).

And if Sterling's narration was even close to accurate tonight, these shots were being launched to every part of the field in every way possible. I almost expected to see William Zabka march out screaming, "THERE'S NO MERCY IN THIS DOJO."

Although CC made one mistake in the form of a Josh Wilson ding, the early lead gave him a cushion he wouldn't need, and Jeter rest that he would need. And the win allowed the Yanks to reclaim their 6.5 game lead, while continuing to boast the best record in the majors.

Even Brian Bruney, who came in to pitch a perfect 9th, has raised his game of late. Is it possible that the Yankees, for the first time since call waiting was invented, have figured it out? That the brass over on 161st street may have a method to their madness? I'll be the first to admit that the Jerry Hairston, Jr move spun me into frenzied frustration with an official party line of "Why? Why! Why are you categorically averse to a rotation, and chemically dependent on lateral 'depth' acquisitions?"

But tonight, our equivalent of the 50 blank CDs you pick up just because they're in the racks along the line to the cashier at Best Buy, once again validated Cashman's decision: Jerry "Impulse Buy '09" Hairston, Jr., went 2-for-5 with 2 RBIs. Our outfield that's had its fair share of criticisms, ate up every fly ball that sailed through the cavernous Safeco. Our "overrated" round boy demoralized his opponents on merely 105 pitches.

Maybe Cashman et al is like My Cousin Vinny and we're like Stan Rothenstein--we're nervous and angry and ready to wash our hands of him in the beginning of the season because we have no idea what the hell is going on in that pressurized head of his.

But now? We're mowing through these games with a laser-like precision. The Yankees have always been good, but they weren't disciplined, as much as their perennially clean shaven faces might suggest. They used to play like a fantasy team, with each player's individual talent existing in a vacuum and not in concert.

But now they're working with the calculated precision and measured skill of a chess master who's always one step ahead of his opponent.

It's not easy to maintain this level of focus. But then, no one ever said it'd be easy. The Yankees just make it look that way.

-CYC