SB Nation - Miguel Cairo

News Round-Up: The Tools of Ignorance

jscape2000 — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 12:00:41 -0000

Tyler Kepner has the shake down on the Johnson-Damon drama:

Johnson is not precisely taking over for Damon. In the big picture, the Yankees are swapping two older left-handed hitters who made $26 million in 2009 (Damon and Hideki Matsui) for two younger left-handed hitters whose contracts average about $14 million in 2010 (Curtis Granderson and Johnson). They are replacing a speed guy and a slow guy with another speed guy and another slow guy.

I know some folks wanted Damon back; some think Cash made a wrong choice, and the Yanks' will regret it when they have a sore Johnson in June.

These are negotiations. I pretend that I'm not budging, you pretend that your not budging. Sometimes, one of us thinks we're not serious when we really are. The difference in real value of Damon/Matsui vs Granderson/Johnson is marginal, and this gives Cashman a little more leverage in future negotiations with Scott Boras. Next time Boras makes an outrageous demand to Brian Cashman, and Cash replies "That's unreasonable, so I'll go to my other options," Boras will be quicker to buckle.

Greg Fertel of Pending Pinstripes thinks that Brett Gardner could be a better left fielder than Jason Bay next season when we weigh offense, defense and baserunning.

I call malarkey because Joe G. proved in September and the postseason that he doesn't think Gardner gives him the best chance to win. If Joe G. has someone else, anyone else to run out there, he will use the other guy. Whether it's an ice-cold Melky or Nick Swisher having a Soriano-esque bout of futility at the plate, Joe G. thinks that GGBG's speed can only be a weapon off the bench.

Gardner has the potential (assuming no regression in the notoriously fickle UZR), but I don't think he'd ever get the opportunity.

Who's the greatest Yankee to ever wear #14? YankeeNumbers gives you the full run-down. My short list is down to Lou Piniella, Bill Skowron and Miguel Cairo. Grand Central has some work to do to put himself in that company.

The most important baseball man to ever wear 14 as a Yankee is easy, though: Bobby Cox.

Donnie Collins replaced Chad Jennings at the SWB Blog, and he's doing a fine job. He notes that former Yankee farmhand Eric Hacker has signed a minor league deal with the Giants- Hacker was DFA'd and traded to the Pirates for Romulo Sanchez, who is currently on the Yankees' 40-man and has an outside shot at making the bullpen out of Spring Training.

This is something else that Cashman has done well lately: holding on to the right guys, and flipping the marginal guys for other marginal guys he can have an extra season or two to develop.

Pitchers and catchers report in the longest 8 weeks of the year.

I try to always cite my sources. I think I link to one of Cot's Baseball Contracts, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs every single day. And there's a reason: they're awesome. The work they do updating and sharing their respective information is as important as anything happening on the internet (from a baseball standpoint).

In the spirit of the season, I want to say a huge thank you to the folks who run each of those sites. What I do would be impossible without what they do.

Wait, so how exactly is this anything like 2004?

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:32:45 -0000

Yeah, I'm just not seeing it...

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The 2009 ALCS and 2004 ALCS are practically mirror images of each other.

Indistinguishable.

Talk about carbon copies! I haven't seen this level of uncanny similarity since watching Woody Harrelson and Wesley Snipes in White Men Can't Jump.

Yeah, that's about how alike these two series are.

If I have to read one more thinly veiled (or downright overt, even) suggestion that the 2009 ALCS is "2004 all over again," I may spoon out my eyeballs with my bare hands without skipping a beat.

I'm sorry, HOW exactly is this ANYTHING like 2004?

As much as it pains me to even think about that dark time in my life, I'm going to bite the bullet for the sake of putting an end to this ridiculous Y2K-like mass hysteria and unfounded panic.

Let's consider the elements that shaped the 2004 mess:

The Greatest Rivalry in Sports
Yankees took 3-0 lead
Red Sox hadn't beat the Yankees since the dawn of time
A-Rod's empty performance
Red Sox were the favorite entering series
Yankees pitching: Mike Mussina, Jon Lieber, Javier Vasquez, El Duque, Esteban Loaiza, Kevin Brown
Yankees Big Bats: Miguel Cairo, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield (all below .300)

And in 2009?

Not the greatest rivalry, or even a rivalry at all
Yankees went up 2-0. Then 2-1. Then 3-1. Then 3-2.
Yankees haven't beaten the Angels since the dawn of time
A-Rod's immortal-like production and clutchness
Yankees were favorite entering series
Yankees pitching: CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte
Yankees Big Bats: Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui

Not only is 2009 not that similar to 2004, but it's arguably the polar OPPOSITE of it. The Yankees aren't squandering away a swift 3-0 lead. The past 5 games have been back and forth, in terms of series record.

If this is considered to be a repeat of 2004, then I have to assume that anytime the Yankees lose a single game in the postseason, it's going to be linked to a Dave Roberts steal clip.

When the Angels lose tomorrow, I expect to read volumes of column inches asserting the blatant redux of the 1986 ALCS. Because, you know, they're practically one in the same. The Angels lost that one. They're going to lose this one. And apparently, that's about all the matching elements you need these days, to substantiate a cross-season comparison.

Next thing you know, they're gonna start telling me Papelbon and Mo are identical closers! Oh, wait...

Pay no attention to this 2004 drivel, Yankee fans. It's the hollow propaganda of haters everywhere.

And as George Bernard Shaw said, "Hatred is the coward's revenge for being intimidated."

-CYC

Player Origins of the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies

John Sickels — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:03:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Philadelphia Phillies infielder Jimmy Rollins, drafted in the second round in 1996.(AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Philadelphia Phillies: Player Origins

Here are the player development origins of the 2009 National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

PITCHERS:

Antonio Bastardo, LHP: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2005.

Joe Blanton, RHP: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the first round in 2002, from the University of Kentucky. Acquired by the Phillies in a trade with Oakland in July 2008.

Chad Durbin, RHP: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the third round in 1996, from high school in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in December 2007.

Scott Eyre, RHP: Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the ninth round in 1991, from the Junior College of Southern Idaho. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Cubs in August 2008.

Cole Hamels, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2002, out of high school in San Diego, California.

J.A. Happ, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the third round in 2004, from Northwestern University.

Cliff Lee, LHP: Drafted by the Montreal Expos in the fourth round in 2000, from the University of Arkansas. Acquired in a trade with the Indians this summer.

Brad Lidge, RHP: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the first round in 1998, from the University of Notre Dame. Acquired in a trade with the Astros in November 2007.

Ryan Madson, RHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the ninth round in 1998, out of high school in Moreno Valley, California.

Pedro Martinez, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1988. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Chan Ho Park, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from South Korea in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent.

POSITION PLAYERS

Paul Bako, C: Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the fifth round in 1993, out of the University of Southwestern Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Eric Bruntlett, INF: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the ninth round in 2000, out of Stanford University. The Phillies got him in a trade with Houston in 2007.

Miguel Cairo, INF: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent out of Venezuela in 1990. Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 2009.

Greg Dobbs, INF: Signed by the Seattle Mariners as an undrafted free agent from the University of Oklahoma in 2001. The Phillies claimed him on waivers in 2007.

Pedro Feliz, 3B: Signed by the San Francisco Giants as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in 2008.

Ben Francisco, OF: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the fifth round in 2002 from UCLA. The Phillies acquired him in a trade this summer with the Indians.

Ryan Howard, 1B: Drafted by the Phillies in the fifth round in 2001, from Southwest Missouri State University (now known as Missouri State University).

Raul Ibanez, OF: Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 36^th round in 1992, from Miami-Dade Community College-South. The Phillies signed him as a free agent last winter.

Jimmy Rollins, SS: Drafted by the Phillies in the second round in 1996, out of high school in Alameda, California.

Carlos Ruiz, C: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 1998, out of Panama.

Matt Stairs, OF: Signed by the Montreal Expos as an undrafted free agent in 1989, out of high school in Canada. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Blue Jays in 2008.

Chase Utley, 2B: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2000, out of UCLA.

Shane Victorino, OF: Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth round in 1999, out of high school in Wailuku, Hawaii.. Selected in the 2005 Rule 5 draft.

Jayson Werth, OF: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the first round in 1997, out of high school in Chatham, Illinois. Signed as a free agent by the Phillies in 2006.

ACQUISTIONS:

Via Trades/Waivers: Blanton, Eyre, Lee, Lidge, Bruntlett,. Dobbs, Francisco, Stairs.

Phillies Farm System Products: Bastardo, Hamels, Happ, Madson, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Utley.

Free Agents: Durbin, Martinez, Park, Bako, Cairo, Feliz, Ibanez, Werth.

Rule 5: Victorino.

ORIGINS

Drafted from North American high schools: Durbin (3^rd), Hamels (1^st), Madson (9^th), Rollins (2^nd), Victorino (9^th), Werth (1^st).

Drafted from junior colleges: Eyre (9^th), Ibanez (36^th)

Drafted from four-year colleges: Blanton (1^st); Happ (3^rd), Lee (4^th), Lidge (1^st), Bako (5^th), Bruntlett (9^th), Francisco (5^th), Howard (5^th), Utley (1^st)

Undrafted free agents from North America: Dobbs, Stairs

Latin Free Agents: Bastardo, Martinez, Cairo, Feliz, Ruiz

Asian Free Agents: Park

As you can see, the Phillies built their team through a variety of sources. Once the American League winner is determined, we'll analyze their roster and compare the two.

NLDS Preview: Offense and Defense

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 21:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Throw a two-strike pitch out of the zone to Howard, and you'll probably get a strikeout.

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Welcome to Part 2 of 3 of the NLDS Preview, where I'll scout the Phillies in painstaking detail. RockiesMagicNumber will finish up the preview tonight or tomorrow morning with details on the pitching in the series.

The Bats: A

So you learned this morning that Citizens Bank Park, while a hitters park, is not nearly as big of an advantage as you might think. That in part is why I won't discredit the Phillies awesome offensive production, giving them their bats the lone A in the National League. Here are their rankings:

	Stat	NL Rank
Avg	.258	9th
Runs	820	1st
HR	224	1st
OBP	.334	8th
SLG	.447	1st
wOBA	.340	1st
OPS+	102	1st

Philadelphia's offensive numbers perfectly reflect their CBP's park factors. They are a home-run hitting team shy on singles. So either the park factor is right, the Phillies have fielded a team tailored to their park or a combination of the two. Either way, this is the best offense in the National League.

Let's look at Charlie Manuel's lineup, which is about as stable as you will find, as six players have played at least 155 games:

Player	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Jimmy Rollins - SS	.250	21	77	.296	.423	.316	85
Shane Victorino - CF	.292	10	62	.358	.445	.354	109
Chase Utley - 2B	.282	31	93	.397	.508	.402	135
Ryan Howard - 1B	.279	45	141	.360	.571	.393	139
Raul Ibanez - LF	.272	34	93	.347	.552	.379	130
Jayson Werth - RF	.268	36	99	.373	.506	.382	127
Pedro Feliz - 3B	.266	12	82	.308	.386	.302	80
Carlos Ruiz - C	.255	9	43	.355	.425	.337	103

A glance at the first five, and it's easy to understand why it would be such a big boost for Franklin Morales to get his head on straight.

Bench:*
IF: RH Eric Bruntlett (.171, 0, 7), RH Miguel Cairo (.267, 1, 2), LH Greg Dobbs (.247, 5, 20)
OF: RH Ben Francisco (.257, 15, 46), LH Matt Stairs (.194, 5, 17)
C: LH Paul Bako (.224, 3, 9)
*At the time of writing, playoff rosters had not yet been announced, so the bench composition is an educated guess.

The Gloves: A-

This Beyond the Boxscore article points to the Phillies as being the clearcut best NL playoff team defensively. Indeed, they rank 5th in MLB and 2nd in the NL in UZR/150, yet they have made 76 errors, second least in MLB.

Take the jump to a detailed look at Philadelphia's lineup.

LINEUP

1. Jimmy Rollins

#11 / Short Stop / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-8

Weight: 175

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Nov 27, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jimmy Rollins	155	672	100	168	43	5	21	77	44	70	31	8	.250	.296	.423

Comment: Rollins followed his disappointing 2008 campaign with three straight sub-.700 OPS months in 2009. The low point was a .167/.206/.292 June. However, he turned it around in a big way in July, throwing a more familiar .313/.385/.539 July. Since that month, he has maintained a better level of play than the first half, but he has sloped off as the second half has worn on.

Strengths: In spite of his terrible average, J-Roll is still a legitimate power threat, is very difficult to strike out and is just two shy of the MLB lead in stolen bases among shortstops. He seems to have lost a little bit of range defensively, but he did make a career-low six errors at shortstop, and he is coming off of two straight gold gloves.

Weaknesses: Rollins is ill-suited for the leadoff role with that OBP below .300. Not surprisingly, he doesn't walk much. He hit just .230 as a RHB.

2. Shane Victorino

#8 / Center Field / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-9

Weight: 180

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Nov 30, 1980

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Shane Victorino	156	620	102	181	39	13	10	62	60	71	25	8	.292	.358	.445

Comment: In some regards, Victorino had his best season of his career this year. He didn't deserve the All-Star selection he received, though he did himself well by having his best month in July. He faded down the stretch though, posting just a .650 OPS in Sept/Oct.

Strengths: According to Fangraphs, he has done more damage hitting fastballs than any NL OF sans Justin Upton. He doesn't steal a lot of bases, though he will be a threat to do so. Fangraphs doesn't like his defense, but he earned a Gold Glove last season, and this year's Fangraphs values are incongruent with recent years. He's a good fielder.

Weaknesses: He tends to struggle against finesse pitchers like Aaron Cook and can have issues hitting the change-up. Victorino is better from the left-side of the plate.

3. Chase Utley

#26 / Second Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Dec 17, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chase Utley	156	571	112	161	28	4	31	93	88	110	23	0	.282	.397	.508

Comment: Utley is no contest the best hitting second baseman in the game today, as he should collect his fourth consecutive Silver Slugger this year. He can thank Albert Pujols for robbing him of MVP Awards

Strengths: On top of all his ridiculous offensive numbers, he leads all NL 2B in fielding value. He has never had difficulty turning on fastballs, and he has shown the best plate discipline of his career, walking more and laying off pitches outside of the zone more. He actually performs slightly better against left-handed pitchers too. Note: this would be a good place to bring in your better RH reliever over playing the platoon splits.

Weaknesses: Is he tired? His.193/.290/.325 line since September 1 is truly pitcher-like. For some reason, he seems to have difficulty hitting in a count with three balls.

4. Ryan Howard

#6 / First Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-4

Weight: 260

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Nov 19, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ryan Howard	160	616	105	172	37	4	45	141	75	186	8	1	.279	.360	.571

Comment: Ryan Howard is a scary man to see digging into the batter's box. He had a solid second half and finished the regular season strong, posting a .303 average even since September 1.

Strengths: The imposing run producer finished the year 3rd in MLB in HR, 1st in RBI and 5th in slugging percentage. He is just an elite slugger who can change a whole game and series by seeing one bad pitch. Despite his giant frame, he has managed to be a decent defensive first baseman.

Weaknesses: As we all know, Howard is prone to the strikeout. He has cut his K-rate to a career low, but it's still over 30%. Howard has struck out in half his PA's that have reached two strikes, in part due to the fact that he is the worst hitter in the league at making contact on pitches out of the zone. He also exhibits a nasty platoon split, hitting just .207/.298/.365 against LHP.

5. Raul Ibanez

#29 / Left Field / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-2

Weight: 225

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Jun 02, 1972

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Raul Ibanez	134	500	93	136	32	3	34	93	56	119	4	0	.272	.347	.552

Comment: Ibanez made me look like a genius in May when he helped put my fantasy team at the forefront of my division. He had a stellar All-Star first half, when he hit .309/.367/.649. However, he came down to earth in a big way in the second half, hitting a paltry .232/.326/.448.

Strengths: The veteran actually hits left-handers better than right-handers, so ignore the platoon splits here too. He has positive values against every pitch he's seen, so there's not one pitch that can get him out. Even with his second half struggles, he's sixth among NL outfielders in runs created.

Weaknesses: Maybe it's the short porch, but the former Mariner has graded out well defensively from UZR after years of being one of the worst defensive outfielders in the game. He'll go fishing on about a quarter of the pitches outside the zone, only making contact with half of them, which might explain his suddenly high K rate.

6. Jayson Werth

#28 / Right Field / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-5

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 20, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jayson Werth	159	571	98	153	26	1	36	99	91	156	20	3	.268	.373	.506

Comment: It's hard to believe Ned Coletti DFA'd this All-Star just three years ago. It may seem like he has come out of nowhere, but really, the increase in production has only come with more at-bats. His rate stats have been in this vicinity for years.

Strengths: His power has been very consistent, knocking seven dingers in each of the last four months, six in the one prior. He trails only Adam Dunn and Ryan Braun in wRAA among NL outfielders, and while his season has been uninspiring on the defensive side statistically, he is regarded as a very solid defensive outfielder. He even has 20 stolen bases.

Weaknesses: He has a decent walk rate, but a 27.2% K rate is still a little too high. Werth struggles most against RHP and power pitchers, so Ubaldo will hold the edge over him in Game 1. He leans pretty heavily to being a pull hitter - only four home runs have gone opposite field and he's hitting just .257 when going the other way.

7. Pedro Feliz

#7 / Third Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 27, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Pedro Feliz	158	580	62	154	30	2	12	82	35	68	0	1	.266	.308	.386

Comment: Feliz is one of those hitters Rockies fans think is a lot better than he is - like Fred Lewis - due to head-to-head matchups. Among all MLB third basemen, only Emilio Bonifacio had a worse wOBA. He may see purple pinstripes and go all Hulk on us, but he's not a real threat.

Strengths: The Phillies 3B doesn't strike out much. His UZR has gone down quite a bit since joining Philly, but he's still a solid defensive third baseman. 12 HR and 82 RBI is very strong for a 7-hole hitter.

Weaknesses: Feliz struggles with anything offspeed, though it's not as if he has really punished fastballs either. Only 11 NL hitters swing at more pitches out of the zone (Barmes is one of them), one of the reasons he is one of the worst NL hitters at drawing walks. He has limped to the finish, hitting in the .225 range over the last two months.

8. Carlos Ruiz

#51 / Catcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-10

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 22, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Carlos Ruiz	107	322	32	82	26	1	9	43	47	39	3	2	.255	.355	.425

Comment: Ruiz has improved dramatically with the bat from last year, moving from liabilty to unquestionable asset at the bottom of the lineup.

Strengths: Only one NL catcher strikes out less and only one walks more than Ruiz, who grades out as an above average MLB hitter regardless of defensive position despite a .266 BABIP. His 27% caught stealing percentage is solid, and he has committed just 3 errors, the least of any MLB catcher with 800+ innings logged. He has a decent amount of thump as well - his SLG% is just 15 points behind that of Clint Barmes.

Weaknesses: He struggles mostly against groundball pitchers, which bodes well for the Rockies, the best groundball staff in the business. Most of his offensive success comes at CBP - his road splits are .203/.296/.314

Hooverville!: Phillies 7, Marlins 6 (10)

dajafi — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:11:54 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

2 months ago: Florida Marlins shortstop Emilio Bonifacio puts the tag on Philadelphia Phillies' Ben Francisco reaching for the bag on a steal attempt in the second inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Something strange happened over the course of three and a half hours of seemingly meaningless baseball on Sunday afternoon: I started to care whether the Phillies won this game. Maybe it was listening to the Marlins announcers, who deliver the sort of relentless and obnoxious boosterism I imagine one heard in mid-size midwestern towns around 1928. Maybe it was the ongoing redemption of Miguel Cairo, who made his last, best case for a spot on the postseason roster with a homer and a triple. Maybe it was just annoyance at the flat performances the Phils had turned in since clinching the division Wednesday night. Maybe it was a desire to see this year's team surpass last year's win total.

Whatever my reason, it seemed like the team gradually got into it too. They fell behind 2-0, 5-2, and 6-5, and came back every time, finally putting away the Marlins on a tenth-inning RBI single by third string catcher Paul Hoover off the glove of Florida's Wes Helms that scored John Mayberry Jr. Both players, who actually came off the bench during the game, are very unlikely to see the field again this October; but they, like fellow reserves Cairo, Eric Bruntlett, Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco, played with a lot more energy than most of the Phils' regulars have shown since last week's clincher. (Francisco's three caught stealings, two on overslides of the second base bag, remind us that energy isn't everything, but still.) The one regular who did play was Jayson Werth, who couldn't pick up his 100th RBI--the Marlins intentionally walked him with Mayberry on second in the 10th--but did steal two bases to finish with 20 on the season.

On the pitching side, J.A. Happ allowed the obligatory two first-inning runs, pitched a scoreless second, and then took a seat. Kyle Kendrick started strongly with two scoreless innings, but allowed three runs in the fifth. Clay Condrey and Brett Myers recorded one out each, Sergio Escalona worked an inning and two-thirds, and Jack Taschner, Scott Eyre and Chad Durbin each pitched a scoreless frame as Charlie Manuel auditioned pretty much every reliever on the bubble for a first-round playoff roster spot.

Rockies manager Jim Tracy announced this afternoon that Ubaldo Jiminez is likely to be his Game One starter; the Phillies have yet to choose between Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels for the start of the Division Series on Wednesday.

Why Is Eric Bruntlett a Phillie?

David S. Cohen — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:19:21 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

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Eric Bruntlett has a really thick beard. . . . and that's about all I can say that isn't entirely negative about Eric Bruntlett this year.

It's hard to overstate how utterly worthless Bruntlett has been for the Phillies this year. Three numbers really put things in perspective:

425, 4, and -10.4

425: This is Bruntlett's rank in BA, OBP, and OPS out of 425 MLB hitters with 75 or more plate appearances. His batting average is .129. His OBP is .198. His OPS is .398. No, those aren't typos. To put .398 in perspective, ten current members of the Phillies have an individual component of OPS (SLG or OBP) higher than Brutnlett's OPS. In terms of rankings, Bruntlett is just slightly better than 420th in SLG. His .200 SLG is good for 423rd, beating out Brent Lillibridge and Greg Norton.

4: This is Bruntlett's OPS+. He's never been a stellar hitter, of course, but his OPS+ was 55 last year, which is incredible in comparison. 4? Did you know the stat could go that low for someone who earns a paycheck from a major league team?

-10.4: This is Bruntlett's VORP. This is actually good for 416th our of 425 players with 75 or more plate appearances. But, what makes Bruntlett's VORP particularly atrocious is that he posted this -10.4 VORP in only 98 plate appearances. Everyone in the majors who has posted a worse VORP has done so with many more plate appearances. Basically, Bruntlett doesn't play much, but when he does he really makes the Phillies worse. To put Bruntlett's VORP in perspective, Brad Lidge has a -11.0 VORP and we all know what he's done to hurt this team.

So why is Bruntlett a Phillie? Because he plays middle infield, so he's the only player on their active roster who can sub for Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley. But there is no possible way that ~~Pablo Ozuna or~~ Miguel Cairo would be any worse than Bruntlett in that role. They're both righties just like Bruntlett, but they're both hitting to the tune of a .730+ OPS for the IronPigs. Neither is going to do anything special at the plate for the Phillies, but both are more worthy of filling the 25th roster spot than Bruntlett currently is. And I can't imagine there isn't someone who has cleared waivers in the past few weeks who wouldn't help this team.

I know that who gets an additional 30 plate appearances for the Phillies between now and the end of the season is not the most pressing issue of the day for the Phillies. But, right now Charlie Manuel is working with a 24 man team. Shouldn't he have 25 players at his disposal like every other manager?

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 18 May 2009 15:12:32 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Manny Parra, center, gathers with his teammates to discuss their blatant disrespect for the game and untucked shirts.

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Some things to read while waiting for lunch.

If all had gone according to plan, the Brewers would be enjoying an off day on the road today and getting ready to open a series with the Astros tomorrow. Instead, they're in St. Louis waiting for tonight's makeup game, and probably won't get to Houston until early tomorrow morning. Some notes on tonight's game:

Kyle Lohse, who pitched the first couple of innings of Friday's rainout, will start for the Cardinals.
He'll face Braden Looper, who has something to prove to a Cardinal organization that decided not to pursue him after the 2008 season.
Tonight's game will be televised in HD.

Rickie Weeks will not be with the team tonight. He left last night's game in the first inning with a sore left wrist and will travel to Phoenix to get it checked out by the specialist that performed the previous surgeries on his right wrist (Also noted in FanShot). Barring something unforeseen, Weeks is expected to rejoin the team tomorrow but doesn't know when he'll be ready to play.

Jason Kendall enters today's game with 1999 career hits. If he picks up a hit in the next couple of days, he may reach 2000 before Todd Helton.

Saturday's game was the Brewers' third 1-0 contest of the season, and they're now 2-1 in those games. Trevor Hoffman picked up the save in that game: UmpBump has a look at his early success and Adam McCalvy reports on a prank Hoffman pulled on Ken Macha over the weekend.

Of course, a fair amount of the credit for Saturday's shutout goes to Jeff Suppan, who pitched seven innings and allowed just eight baserunners. The Bucky Channel says Jeff Suppan is making them like him.

How much credit for the Brewers' early success belongs to Ken Macha? Jeff Fletcher of MLB FanHouse sees Macha's fingerprints in some of the changes in the team's philosophy, and also offers some insight into the role of third base coach Brad Fischer.

When will we get to see Mat Gamel? No one seems to know. FanGraphs was excited to see him come up, but he has just one plate appearance in three games as a Brewer, and none since Thursday. Ken Macha has said Gamel wasn't just brought up to ride the bench, but Saturday's game saw Craig Counsell pinch hitting instead in a key situation, and Todd Coffey was allowed to hit for himself in the late innings yesterday.

David Riske threw 30 pitches in the bullpen before Saturday's game and could be headed out for a minor league rehab assignment in the near future. With the strength of the current bullpen, that could be a very long rehab assignment.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Cody Scarpetta threw five hitless innings for Wisconsin yesterday, and sat down with The Official Site's Mason Kelley to talk about his philosophy.
Mike Burns, who wasn't expected to start the season in the rotation for Nashville in the first place, improved his record to 6-0 with a win yesterday.
Cutter Dykstra, #11 in our prospect rankings, was demoted from Wisconsin to Helena over the weekend, and will learn to play second base at that level (h/t Rattler Radio). Helena's season doesn't open until late June, so Dykstra will spend some time in extended spring training breaking in an infielder's glove.

Balking Traditionalism reports the Brewers are second in the NL in Wins Above Replacement, and Summer Loving moved them up to fifth in their power rankings.

Here's a nice note on the fan-friendliness of the Brewer organization: The Brewers charge a $2 "convenience fee" for the right to purchase tickets online, the lowest in all of baseball.

Nearly a week has passed, but blogs continue to pile on The Happy Youngster, as they should. The Biz of Baseball, Miller Park Drunk and True Blue Brew are just three of the dozens of sites that have taken note.

Around the league:

Marlins: Designated John Koronka for assignment.
Mets: Signed catcher Javier Valentin and reliever Tom Martin to minor league deals, and placed Carlos Delgado on the DL with a hip impingement.
Nationals: Designated reliever Logan Kensing for assignment, placed catcher Jesus Flores on the DL with a bruised shoulder and DL'ed starter Scott Olsen with shoulder tendinitis.
Orioles: Placed Luke Scott on the DL with a sore left shoulder.
Padres: Claimed infielder Josh Wilson off the DL from the D-Backs and designated reliever Duaner Sanchez for assignment.
Pirates: Acquired starter Eric Hacker from the Yankees for AAA reliever Romulo Sanchez and placed Tyler Yates on the DL.
Phillies: Designated Miguel Cairo for assignment.
Rangers: Are expected to sign reliever Mike Hinckley, who opted for free agency after being DFA'd by the Nationals last week, to a minor league deal. They also placed closer Frank Francisco on the DL with biceps tendinitis.
Rays: Placed Pat Burrell on the DL with stiffness in his neck.
Rockies: Reliever Matt Daley has been placed on the DL after tripping on a bat home plate umpire Bill Welke attempted to kick out of the way.
Tigers: Reliever Juan Rincon has declined a minor league assignment and is now a free agent.

By now, you've probably heard about yesterday's Rays-Indians game, where pitcher Andy Sonnanstine ended up batting third due to a scorecard mistake. Marc Lancaster has a list of Sonnanstine's feats.

Remember months ago, when we wanted the Brewers to sign Odalis Perez? After he refused to report to Nationals camp on a minor league deal this spring, he remains unsigned, and Jorge Says No! wants to know why.

Will Odalis Perez find a job before Cecil Cooper loses his? Cooper is having his decisions second-guessed in Houston, and it doesn't sound like his team is behind him at all.

Ben Sheets hasn't started throwing yet and says he hasn't started thinking about who he'll pitch for once he's healthy, but he was in Arlington over the weekend, paying a visit to Rangers' pitching coach Mike Maddux.

When you're as small at Tim Lincecum, as young as Tim Lincecum, you throw as hard as Tim Lincecum and you rack up as many innings as Tim Lincecum, I guess you shouldn't be surprised when your velocity falls like Tim Lincecum's.

This year, maybe you'll actually get some sleep in October: Major League Baseball is changing World Series start times to get the games going earlier.

Oh, and it's probably pretty difficult to bring a harp on the road.

Drink up.

Phillies at Nationals: May 15-17 (4 games)

Matt Swartz — Fri, 15 May 2009 04:07:34 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

The Phillies hope to keep Ryan Zimmerman from starting a new hitting streak this weekend. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Browse more photos »

The Philadelphia Phillies (16-16) will head to Washington meet President Barack Obama (1-0) and then play four games against the Washington Nationals (11-21) in three days. The Nationals have not been quite as bad as their record this year, and their offense has actually been quite good. Their bullpen has been terrible and their starting pitching has beeen bad, too, which explains their terrible record. The Phillies still should be able to do well against them this weekend. They face a couple of lefties to start the series, but neither are spectacular, and the Phillies should be able to handle them well this time. That is, if John Lannan doesn't kill any more of our players. After putting Chase Utley on the DL with a HBP in 2007 and bunting a ball that caused Cole Hamels to sprain his ankle hard enough to get pulled in the 5th and to miss a start after that, the Phillies should have armed guards against John Lannan. Lannan has not been great this year. He has managed an ERA of 3.89, but he has 20 K and 15 BB in 39.1 IP this year. He has succeeded on the back of a 58% groundball rate. His start last week against the Diamondbacks seemed like an early Kyle Kendrick start with 0 runs in 6 IP, with a couple double plays. Lannan will face up against Joe Blanton. Blanton is coming off a frustrating start where he surrendered six runs in eight innings against the Braves. He has struggled with the longball this year, despite getting a decent amount of strikeouts and keeping the ball on the ground.

Game one Saturday will put Scott Olsen against Brett Myers. Olsen has a 7.00 ERA this year, but he has not been quite that bad. He probably should have an ERA around 5. He had a very effective start against the Phillies a couple weeks ago, going 5.2 and surrendered just a run thanks to 10 groundballs and 6 strikeouts out of 24 batters faced. Olsen struggles a lot against RHB, so hopefully Werth has a good game and Rollins and Victorino ought to wake up. Brett Myers is coming off a no decision against the Braves in which he surrendered only 1 run in 6 innings, but only struck out 3. He struck out only 1 in 5.1 IP the start beforehand as well, as his K/9 falls. Myers has struggled, surrendering eight homeruns in the first four games he pitched this year, which made his last two starts seem better. However, a few bad pitches does not change the fact that he was striking guys out then. If he could both strike guys out and concentrate enough to avoid throwing meatballs over the middle of the plate, how good could Myers be? Let's hope we catch a glimpse this Saturday afternoon.

Game two on Saturday should be a fun one, as the Phillies send J.A. Happ on the mound to audition for either Jamie Moyer or Chan Ho Park's rotation spot (whichever frees up first), and Happ should expect lots of run support as the somehow lucky righty Daniel Cabrera and his 0.46 K/BB rate (yes, you read that rate) will pitch to the Phillies mashing lefties on Saturday night. Cabrera has kept his rotation spot thanks to flyballs not leaving the yard at a normal rate. That's not his credit. He's leaving the balls up there and the hitters aren't hitting them far enough. Cabrera apparently is incredibly talented but has not put it together.

Sunday will put Chan Ho Park in line to try to get his third straight excellent start. He'll face Jordan Zimmerman, who has been unlucky this year. Zimmerman has struck out 26 and walked 8 in 29 innings to start his career. He has only surrendered 29 flyballs out of 85 balls in play (34%), but 5 of those have left the yard. Zimmerman is bound to pick up some luck soon enough, so Sunday could be difficult if he does.

The series should be a pretty intense one, as the two teams will play 4 games in 46 hours, amounting to around 40% of their waking hours during that time span.

EDIT: Andrew Carpenter will start in J.A. Happ's spot against Daniel Cabrera and night game of Saturday's doubleheader. I've added a brief profile of his below. Miguel Cairo has been designated for assignment (finally!).

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton vs John Lannan
Saturday, 1:05-- Brett Myers vs Scott Olsen
Saturday, 7:05-- (EDIT) ANDREW CARPENTER vs Daniel Cabrera
Sunday, 1:35-- Chan Ho Park vs Jordan Zimmerman

EDIT: I thought it would help to see the pitch counts of the relievers from Friday's game to give a sense of who might be available in game two:

PHILLIES:

Durbin: 13; Eyre: 8; Madson: 13; Lidge: 21; Condrey: 5; Happ: 42

NATIONALS:

Mock: 2; Villone: 6; Colome: 11; Beimel: 20; Taverez: 35; Hanrahan: 36; Wells: 51

From this, I'd have to assume that Lidge is unavailable for the Phillies, since he did so poorly and threw 21 pitches. The Nationals probably don't have Tavarez, Hanrahan, or Wells, and Beimel may or may not be available. I think other than Beimel, the Nats will have to rely on Mock, Villone, and Colome unless they also make a move overnight as well.

More BABIP details included below, as I do the player by player matchups while using my BABIP projections from my article last week.

NATIONALS

LINEUP

The Nationals' hitters are not their problem. They are managing 5.3 runs/game, and they have a number of solid hitters. They are pretty solid from top to bottom. Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .357 after just ending a 30-game hitting strike. Like any hitter who has a hitting streak like that, Zimmerman was the beneficiary of a lot of luck. His BABIP is .394. He has a pretty normal line drive rate (21.2% line drives), so that is even more surprising. He also has popped out quite a few times this year, which makes his BABIP all the more improbable. He has 8 homeruns already, so he's clearly hitting the ball harder than last year in general though. Nick Johnson has an excellent eye, and is a good unconventional fit for the two hole. He bats before Zimmerman. After Zimmerman is power hitter Adam Dunn. Dunn already has 11 homeruns this year, and is walking at the same pace while cutting back on his strikeouts. He's had some luck on balls in play too, but his .310 average looks very impressive. The Nationals have a pretty right-handed lineup othr than Johnson & Dunn, and leadoff hitter Christian Guzman is a switch hitter.

(1) SS Cristian Guzman (S): .390/.390/.500

proj: .295/.335/.420
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 55%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: solid ground ball rate puts him around .315-.320. My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: fair strike judgment but plus contact skill
r/l: poorer strike zone judgment as rhb but more power
h/a: .743/.645 career
p/o: more of a pull hitter against rhb, but some pull tendencies against lhb too
other: none

(2) 1B Nick Johnson (L): .333/.411/.447

proj: .270/.410/.470
bb: 17%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: doesn't tend to do well on groundballs in general, but does decently otherwise, about average. My system does not project him as he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: does not swing much, but especially good at laying off balls; contact rate about average though
r/l: no major split at all
h/a: no major split at all
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: much better babip with runners on thus far; probably hooks ball in hole a lot

(3) 3B Ryan Zimmerman (R): .357/.408/.608

proj: .285/.350/.475
bb: 8.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: tends to hit around .315 on BIP since he hits a lot of groundballs in the whole. My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: about average across the board
r/l: .758/.931; 2.6 k/bb vs rhp, 1.2 vs lhp; and slightly more power against lhp too
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(4) LF Adam Dunn (L): .310/.444/.638

proj: .245/.380/.490
bb: 17.5%
k: 31%
gb: 34%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low, around .290 career, mostly bc of low babip on groundballs due to the shift. My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: good eye, laying off pitches out of the strike zone; poor contact skills but not as bad as you might expect; sees few strikes
r/l: .932/.833; biggest difference is 1.4 k/bb vs rhb and 2.0 k/bb vs lhb
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: definitepull hitter
other: nothing abnormal; power lefties tend to do better with men on, but he hasn't in his career

(5) CF Elijah Dukes (R): .280/.353/.477

proj: .265/.365/.465
bb: 14%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been low but seems to profile as about average according to most systems. My system actually puts him at about .316.
s/c/z: good eye but poor contact skill
r/l: more power against lhp but not much difference otherwisee
h/a: much better k/bb at home: 1.2 vs 2.0
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(6) RF Austin Kearns (R): .229/.373/.446

proj: .260/.350/.410
bb: 11%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: average all around. My system has him at .299.
s/c/z: very good eye with average contact skill
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhp, 1.1 k/bb vs lhp; only .775/.827 split overall career though
h/a: no major split
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

(7) C Jesus Flores (R): .311/.382/.522

proj: .245/.305/.410
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 17%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been above average but will probably fall due to high popup rate. My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: hacker but pithchers still challenge him
r/l: 5.1 k/bb vs rhp, 3.5 k/bb vs lhp; .633/.802 ops split but mostly due to very high babip vs lhp that probably won't persist.
h/a: struggles more at home so far in career but probably just noise
p/o: very distinct pull hitter; only rarely goes the other way at all
other: far more successful against finesse pitchers thus far with lots of trouble against power pitchers

(8) 2B Anderson Hernandez (S): .282/.378/.346

proj: .240/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 7%
ifh: 9%
babip: slightly below average due to weak hits and poor contact, but he's bound to be good on groundballs. My system does not project him since he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: average thus far
r/l: probably a little better as rhb against lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: so far he seems to be a bit of an opposite field hitter
other: none

BENCH

The Nationals bench is weaker with Lastings Milledge demoted to AAA and subsequently injured. Josh Willingham has been struggling to get hits, but has hit for power. He is the Nats best threat on the bench. The rest of the bench is pretty weak.

C Wil Nieves (R): .276/.300/.310

proj: .245/.290/.325
bb: 5.5%
k: 14%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: lack of power leads to it being below average since its low on flyballs; lack of speed leads to pretty low babip on groundballs too. My system does not project him.
s/c/z: poor strike zone judgment, but not terrible
r/l: seems typical but not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around evenly
other: none

1B/OF Josh Willingham (R): .194/.324/.484

proj: .265/.355/.485
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .305.
s/c/z: low swing rate in general, average contact skill
r/l: better k/bb and power numbers vs lhb but reverse babip split masks that
h/a: seemingly better on the road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

2B Ronnie Belliard (R): .163/.200/.233

proj: .270/.330/.420
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: below average by a little due to lack of power according to most systems, but my system has him at .308.
s/c/z: average across the board
r/l: .727/.828
h/a: .773/.739
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Alex Cintron (S): .050/.136/.050

proj avg: .270/.310/.380
bb: 5%
k: 14%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: about average overall. My system does not project him.
s/c/z: free swinger with above average contact and okay eye; thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .694/.757
h/a: .728/.693
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

UTL Willie Harris (L): .226/.359/.387

proj: .255/.345/.390
bb: 10.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 48%
iff: 10%
ifh: 7%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .302.
s/c/z: does not swing much
r/l: better vs rhp, primarily due to k/bb difference (1.5 vs 3.2)
h/a: not much difference
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

The Phillies will need to stay patient against all three starters they face this series. John Lannan is probably going to be the hardest since he is better against lefties, and actually better all around. Scott Olsen will pitch the day game of Saturday's doubleheader. He has struggled for the most part this year, though he did have a good game a couple weeks ago against the Phillies. The second game of Saturday's doubleheader will be another shot for Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera has a 4.98 ERA, but he has surrendered 28 walks and only struck out 13 in 34.1 innings. He has only survived due to an unsustainably low 5.3% HR/Flyball rate. The Phillies should be able to score a lot of runs off the struggling righty. On Sunday, the Phillies will face Jordan Zimmerman. He has actually been pretty strong this year in terms of strikeouts and walks, but has struggled to have an ERA that reflects this.

FRIDAY STARTER: John Lannan (L): 3.89 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.78 FIP

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 60% fb, 16% sl, 12% cb, 11% ch, 1% ct
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 2.3 vs lhb; .719/.840 ops
h/a: slightly better on road but not much info

Lannan vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 5/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 8/15, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 0 XBH
Victorino: 6/13, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 3/11, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 5/9, 1 HR, 1 BB,0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY GAME ONE STARTER: Scott Olsen (L): 7.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.25 HR/9, 4.88 FIP

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 20% ch, 17% sl
r/l: 1.6 k/bb vs rhb, 2.8 k/bb vs lhb; .827/.686 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Olsen vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 7/40, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 4/27, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Howard: 13/27, 3 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 7/16, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 4/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 3/5, 1 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY GAME TWO STARTER: Daniel Cabrera (R): 4.98 ERA, 7.3 BB/9, 3.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 5.81 FIP

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 24% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .681/.827; 1.5 k/bb vs 1.2
h/a: many more hr surrendered at home but slightly better k/bb

Cabrera vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 9/29, 5 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 2 SF
Stairs: 5/23, 1 2B, 5 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Rollins: 4/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 1/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Jordan Zimmerman (L): 5.90 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.55 HR/9, 4.67 FIP

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 48% in minors so probably about average in majors perhaps (?)
pitches: ?
r/l: better against righties in minors
h/a: ?

Zimmerman: has not pitched against any Phillies

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Shairon Martis (R): 4.10 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.35 FIP

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 20% ch, 10% sl, 9% cb
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Martis vs. Phillies:

Howard: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Marson: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

The Nats lack a dominant arm in the bullpen, but their closer is Joel Hanrahan. He is a bit wild, and so the Phillies should be patient if he comes in. The Nats have two lefties in their pen, but none are all that fantastic. Beimel, a sinkerballing lefty, is probably the better of the two. The left-handed heart of the Phillies lineup will likely have to face him once or twice, once the starters come out, but he is not the kind of lefties that will dominate them as his K/9 is way below average. The other lefty is Ron Villone who recently joined the team. The Nats bullpen overall is full of guys who induce groundballs, but are prone to wildness. None really has the kind of stuff that blows you away, but scoring off the Nats bullpen will be a matter of putting runners on and hitting line drives, while avoiding the double play ball. The Nationals bullpen has been in a constant state of change, and each time the Phillies have faced them, I have to redo all of these numbers as they keep cycling in and out new guys. In fact, the Nationals have already used 12 relief pitchers this year.

CL Joel Hanrahan (R): 6.28 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.79 FIP

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Hanrahan vs Phillies:

Werth: 0/7, 4 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 1/10, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/7, 1 BB, 6 K
Rollins: 2/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Coste: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Joe Beimel (L): 3.97 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.26 FIP

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 85% fb (sinkers coded as fastballs), 7% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.3 k/bb, platoon splits not even as deep as would be give strength of lhb faced vs rhb
h/a: 1.5 k/bb at home 1.1 k/bb on road, but ops split not different

Beimel vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Cairo: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/,1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Julian Tavarez (R): 5.65 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.74 FIP

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 53% fb, 25% sl, 15% ch, 8% sf
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.0 vs lhb; .734/.827 ops
h/a: 1.75 k/bb at home, 1.3 on road

Tavarez vs Phillies:

Rollins: 10/26, 4 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Cairo: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Coste: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Kip Wells (R): 4.40 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.73 FIP

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 70% sl, 12% sl, 10% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .755/.807
h/a: .756/.802

Wells vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/18, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Utley: 4/15, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Cairo: 3/11, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/5, 1 3B, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Ruiz: 0/2, 2 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Garrett Mock (R): 4.66 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.01 FIP

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 20% cb, 11% ch, 8% sl, 2% ct
r/l: .689/.704
h/a: .730/.643

Mock vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ron Villone (L): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 2.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.64 FIP

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 68% fb, 26% sl, 6% ch
r/l: .781 vs .701 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .781 vs .731 ops; 1.5 vs 1.4 k/bb

Villone vs Phillies:

Cairo: 6/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Stairs: 1/7, 6 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/7, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB

Jesus Colome (R): had not played before this series

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 34%
pitches: 71% fb, 27% sl, 1% ch
r/l: 2.0 vs 0.95 k/bb, .698 vs .817 ops
h/a: .725 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb

Kensing vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/10, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

The Phillies have managed 5.3 runs/game but you wouldn't know it from watching them lately. Leadoff hitter and former MVP Jimmy Rollins continues to hover around the Mendoza line, and only has two homeruns this year. Shane Victorino is no longer hitting the ball very well, though overall has likely improved his power skills somewhat this year which is a huge improvement for him. Chase Utley hurt his foot on a HBP a couple weeks ago and his average has plummeted since. He still seems to be hitting the ball hard, though, but just missing more and hitting it at people. His homerun boom this year has come at the expense of a doubles drought, which means he probably isn't actually more powerful than before, but just more deep flyballs are leaving the yard. His BABIP should pick back up and his HR rate should fall. That still makes him the most valuable second basemen in the league and one of the most valuable players in the league. Howard is suddenly striking out more in the past few days. Werth has been crushing the ball overall recently, and Ibanez has fallen off his pace a little bit but has still hit the ball very well. Feliz has seen improved patience at the plate but his average is a BABIP mirage. Carlos Ruiz finally seems to be hitting the ball and reaching base at an incredible pace to catch up for some of his bad luck earlier. My BABIP models continue to project him to look better than he has been in recent years, so there's a reasonable chance that maybe he is actually the .260-.270 hitter that my computer keeps telling me he is.

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .200/.238/.296

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .252/.296/.424

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .278/.414/.574

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .262/.338/.492

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .288/.394/.541

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .336/.403/.672

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .283/.355/.396

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .257/.409/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

Matt Stairs has been the hero of the Phillies bench, hitting the ball very hard all year, managing a ridiculous 1.257 OPS. Dobbs was the superstar pinch hitter last year but is hitting .138 with no extra base hits this year. Bruntlett is doig terribly, hitting .130. If Manuel would commit to just using him against LHP, he would find that Bruntlett is actually a league average hitter against lefties. He just hits worse than many left-handed pitchers against righties. Cairo and Coste have been pretty useless this year from the right side.

C Chris Coste (R): .204/.316/.367

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .130/.214/.261

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .138/.219/.138

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .368/.520/.737

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

DESIGNATED FOR ASSIGNMENT: IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R): .125/.125/.125

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

I keep saying the Phillies' starters will be fine and they do keep improving. Moyer will not start this series, which is good, because he's the one I'm most concerned about. The strikeout and walk numbers for these guys have been fine. Friday's starter, Joe Blanton, has had struggles but they have been just bad luck on HR/Flyball rates, which will normalize. His 6.82 ERA should get down into the 4's soon enough. Myers could stand to improve his strikeout rate a little bit, but he hasn't been terrible. His recent strikeout numbers have been much better, but he still seems to have problems with consistency and concentration on the mound. He will start the day game of Saturday's doubleheader. Game two of the doubleheader will be started by J.A. Happ, who will make his first start of the year. Happ was many people's choice for the fifth starter instead of Chan Ho Park, though with Moyer's struggles, this may be an audition for a couple of roles. Happ is a mediocre pitcher in reality, but the grass tends to be greener on the other side, and he does seem appealing from afar. He does struggle with control and keeping the ball on the ground and getting people to swing and miss at his offspeed and breaking stuff is essential for his success. Sunday will be Chan Ho Park, who looks to put together a third start in a row. I championed him at the end of Spring Training, saying that his K/BB numbers warranted giving him a shot. I've tempored that excitement somewhat, though his performances in the last two games indicate that he is a five-hole starter in reality.

FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.82 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.66 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Nationals:

Dukes: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Zimmerman: 5/11, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 3/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Guzman: 3/9, 0 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Flores: 1/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Kearns: 2/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Harris: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cintron: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY GAME ONE STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 4.81 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 6.30 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Nationals:

zimmerman: 12/32, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Kearns: 7/25, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Johnson: 5/23, 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 8 K, 1 HBP
Guzman: 9/25, 0 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 3/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 6 K
Belliard: 4/18, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Willingham: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3K, 1 HBP
Harris: 0/13, 3 BB, 4 K
Flores: 2/15, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Cintron: 4/10, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 5/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dukes: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY GAME TWO STARTER: Andrew Carpenter: AAA numbers-- 4.72 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.68 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.7 HR/9

gb: 40% in minors

pitches: last year in 1 inning of work in MLB, he threw 73% fb, 13% sf, 7% sl, 7% ch

r/l: seems better against righties in minors

h/a: not enough info

Carpenter: has not pitched against any Nationals (unless it was in the minors)

SUNDAY STARTER: Chan Ho Park (R): 6.00 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.48 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Nationals:

Belliard: 3/16, 0 BB, 5 K
Guzman: 1/11, 2 BB, 1 K
harris: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Dunn: 0/1, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 1/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 1/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 8.15 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 2.8 HR/9, 7.63 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Nationals:

Guzman: 14/43, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 8/30, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 Sac
Zimmerman: 4/24, 1 2B, 4 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 2/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Johnson: 1/15, 4 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Flores: 6/18, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Harris: 4/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Kearns: 5/14, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 5/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Dukes: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Dunn: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cintron: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 5.04 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 11/39, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Kearns: 6/23, 2 2B, 5 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Belliard: 6/25, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Willingham: 3/13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K
Flores: 1/14, 0 BB, 8 K
Johnson: 3/13, 3 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 1/9, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
Dukes: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Guzman: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 0/6, 1 BB, 4 K
Hernandez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

The Phillies bullpen has obviously been disappointing thus far this year. Lidge has given up an incredible number of homeruns (5) for just 14.2 IP. Hitters have been hitting the ball hard off him, and partly due to his poor control, walking a number of hitters as well. Ryan Madson has been very good thus far, striking out hitters at quite the pace. He will eventually start giving up homeruns, but his ERA should stay low. The rest of the bullpen is a question mark. Eyre and Taschner have both been very bad, struggling to strike guys out and walking many. Durbin has been up and down, and Condrey is pitching over his head thus far.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 8.59 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 3.1 HR/9, 7.32 FIP, 27% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Nationals:

Dunn: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB (1 IBB), 9 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Kearns: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 2/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Harris: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 0/3, 1 Bb, 0 K
Zimmerman: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dukes: 0/2, 1 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Flores: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.35 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.08 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 7/16, 3 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 5/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 6/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 3/6, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 1/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 5/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 3/4, 1 HR, 1 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Flores: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Harris: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Dukes: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 5.14 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.78 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Nationals:

Dunn: 5/18, 3 HR, 2 Bb, 9 K, 1 SF
Johnson: 2/13, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Guzman: 1/7, 2 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Zimmerman: 0/2, 1 Bb, 0 K
Harris: 1/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
WIllingham: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 0/1 , 0 BB, 0 K
Dukes: 1 BB
Flores: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 4.50 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 6.09 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Nationals:

Dunn: 1/8, 2 BB, 3 K
Johnson: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 1/3, 2 BB (1 HBP), 1 K
Guzman: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Harris: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Dukes: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Flores: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 3/3, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.19 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Nationals:

Guzman: 5/20, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 2/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 1/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Kearns: 1/6, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dukes: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Harris: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 2/2, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Flores: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 B/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.74 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 2/15, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 2/8, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Dukes: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 4/6, 2 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Kearns: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/6, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Flores: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Harris: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.A. Happ (L): 2.75 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.67 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Nationals:

Belliard: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dukes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Flores: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Harris: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1 BB
Johnson: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Nationals:

Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Harris: 0/8, 0 BB, 5 K
Johnson: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cintron: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 2 BB
Flores: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies vs Dodgers: May 12-14

Matt Swartz — Mon, 11 May 2009 20:19:27 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Jonathan Broxton has pitched like Superman this year, but maybe this guy (Matt Stairs) could be his kryptonite? (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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The Phillies (15-14) continue their homestand against their 2008 NLCS victims, the Los Angeles Dodgers (22-11). The Dodgers have been on fire this year, already 4.5 games into first place. Much of this came due to the torrid production of Manny Ramirez, who was batting .348/.492/.641 when he was suspended for 50 games last week (did anybody else hear about this by chance?). He has been replaced by Juan Pierre, who is not a very good baseball player but has hit the ball well in the past few games since the suspension. The Dodgers certainly owe some of their impressive 22-11 record to Manny, but they would still be in first place without him. He does not add 4.5 wins per 33 games, perhaps 1-2 at the rate he's been going. After getting double the Manny last year, facing him 11 times (3 times as a Red Sock and 8 times as a Dodger-- even more than the normal amount of games teams play against opponents in other divisions of their league), the Phillies will avoid him entirely in 2009. How's that for luck?

The main reason that the Dodgers have been so good is probably luck, actually. I know that may disappoint some Dodger fans, but their production does not seem to be due to any huge individual improvements (except for closer Jonathan Broxton). Some may be quick to point out Baseball Prospectus has them at 20.4 third order wins, not far behind their 22 real life wins. The problem with third order wins is that it only adjusts for certain kinds of luck, and dismisses some skill as luck. Third order wins account for luck on timely hitting leading to more runs, luck on scoring those runs in timely situations, and luck with respect to difficulty of opponents. Scoring/avoiding runs in timely situations is larger a product of strong relief, and probably should not be adjusted for all that much, but we'll get to that on another day. However, this early in the season, the two main types of luck are BABIP luck and HR/Flyball luck. The Dodgers have had some HR/Flyball luck, but their BABIP luck has been insane.

Their hitters have a .329 BABIP despite only a .301 BABIP with similar players last year, and their pitchers have a .275 BABIP despite a .299 BABIP with similar pitchers and fielders as last year. These BABIPs are the best in the league on both accounts. What that means is that either the players are both hitting the ball much harder than before and the fielders are covering ground way better than before, or they have been lucky. The answer is clearly the latter. I recently did an article on StatSpeak.net (where I write some of my more hardcore statistical analysis that does not pertain to the Phillies directly), in which I projected what the 2009 BABIP of players should be based on their numbers in the previous few seasons. Manny Ramirez had a .377 BABIP before being suspended (I projected him around .330), Orlando Hudson has a .357 BABIP (I see him around .323), Matt Kemp has a .349 BABIP (I actually see him at .352, so he's just a really good hitter), and Russell Martin has a .346 BABIP (I see him around .301). Meanwhile, the entire bench is filled with guys with BABIPs over .400 as well. Pierre has managed a .435 BABIP somehow (my research suggests he probably should be around .310). In other words, the Dodgers hitters have been lucky. They also are not a particularly strong team at fielding. Their BABIP on flyballs has been just .109 (league average this year has been .144), despite Manny in LF. Andre Ethier is not a particularly strong fielder in RF, and his numbers do not look particularly amazing this year either. Kemp's numbers have improved, but there is a lot of doubt in my mind that he suddenly turned into a Gold Glove outfielder after putting up average defensive numbers in 2008.

The Dodgers are about to turn into a far more average club than they have been, and it would be nice if that started this week. The Dodgers might not need to require too much luck on Tuesday night. They send out LHP Clayton Kershaw against RHP Chan Ho Park. Kershaw is a extremely talented young pitcher, who has not shared in the good luck the Dodgers have had this year. In actuality, he has been the victim of a small amount of bad luck. Chan Ho Park has failed to show the Phillies what he did in Spring Training since the season began. He did have a very good start in a no decision against Johan Santana last Wednesday, but he has not shown the ability to strike guys out and avoiding free passes that he did in Spring Training. As Happ continues to perform impressively in the bullpen, Park's spot in the rotation remains unsecured.

On Wednesday, the Dodgers will send an old friend to face the Phillies, LHP Randy Wolf. Wolf spent eight seasons with the Phillies before taking on a series of one year gigs with west coast teams since 2007. Wolf was always supposed to be better than he was with the Phillies, but likely suffered immeasurable damage due to the abuse of Larry Bowa, who sent him out to pitch exhausted likely leading to a career injuries. It may be that his impressive start (2.95 ERA) is him finally being healthy, but some of this seems to be luck on avoiding outfield flyballs going over the fence. Citizens Bank Park may cure him of this good luck. This is a very different Phillies team than the one that Wolf played for in 2006. Only 11 of the 25 Phillies on the current roster played on that 2006 team (Howard, Rollins, Utley, Victorino, Ruiz, Coste, Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Madson, and Condrey), and only 6 of them started the 2006 season with that team. The Phillies send LHP Jamie Moyer out against him, who hopes to rebound after a couple of terrible performances. Every poor performance Moyer has, we all start to wonder if he is about finished, but than he bounces back. The Phillies have to hope that he bounces back this time around. The Dodgers did rough him up in the NLCS (for their only win), but have not been exceptional against him in the regular season in limited action.

The Phillies' ace Cole Hamels gets his first opportunity to put together back to back wins on Thursday night, when he will faced by RHP Chad Billingsley in a rematch of the last game of the 2008 NLCS. Billingsley has been very good this year, as I detail below.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday 7:05-- RHP Chan Ho Park vs LHP Clayton Kershaw
Wednesday 7:05-- LHP Jamie Moyer vs LHP Randy Wolf
Thursday 1:05-- LHP Cole Hamels vs RHP Chad Billingsley

Below, I summarize the individual players in tons of detail. Rather than simply copy down statistics, I have added a lot of description about the lineup, bench, rotation, and bullpen of both the Dodgers and Phillies as well as some detailed analysis of the players' performances this year. I also add some more detailed information on BABIP, thanks to my own research on the topic. I continue to include the batter/pitcher matchups, but I would advise against taking them too seriously. A discussion here details the fallacy of reading into those too much. It is far more useful to look at general platoon splits than to study these things more rigorously. That said, my personal guess is that looking at the three true outcomes can help somewhat (though I have not researched this topic myself) at predicting how an individual pitcher/hitter matchup will do.

DODGERS

LINE UP

The Dodgers have been putting up 5.6 runs per game this season, approximately the same pace as the Phillies. A lot of this was thanks to an incredible season from Manny Ramirez that is now awash in controversy. Even still, many other Dodgers have been putting up excellent seasons. Orlando Hudson has a .935 OPS coming into the series, despite projections of around .770 OPS. The primary cause of this is his .357 BABIP. This is not a sustainable BABIP; I have him around .323 in my projections. Most of his luck has coming from line drives and flyballs falling in, which could be indicative of an increase in power but he only has three homeruns. My guess is that he has caught a few lucky breaks and that he will have a more modest season overall. Manny was having quite a season too. His replacement, Juan Pierre, has had quite a lot of success in his 52 PA. Unfortunately, this has come on the back of a .435 BABIP, which he will not maintain. Pierre still lacks the on-base skill and power to be a very valuable player, and this will die down. Like the Phillies, the Dodgers have struggled to get production out of their leadoff hitting shortstop. He only has a .622 OPS despite projections around a .765 OPS. This seems to be real struggles, as he has been striking out in 19% of his at-bats, and has not had many extra base hits at all. His BABIP is actually fine, as is his eye. However, his contact rate has gone down noticeably. It could easily just be a slump, but it's something that the Dodgers should look out for. He seems to be struggling from both sides of the plate. James Loney is the cleanup hitter, but he has failed to hit a single homerun this year and only has seven extra base hits. He seems to be swinging less this year, without much improvement in patience. He has struggled a lot against LHP, going only 4 for 27 against them this year with no extra base hits. He has avoided striking out against them much, but perhaps at the expense of some power. Behind Loney is the fifth hitter Russell Martin, who has had a power outage as well. He only has five extra base hits with no homeruns this year. He has been popping up a lot this year-- already seven times.

1) SS Rafael Furcal (S): .246/.312/.310

projection average (proj): .285/.355/.410
projected BB/PA (bb): 10%
projected K/AB (k): 13.5%
career gb% (gb): 50%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 7%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected slightly above average due to speed; he spreads the ball around well and gets a decent number of infield hits so the .315-ish BABIP projection makes sense
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye and patient, good contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .749 vs .801 ops; 1.4 k/bb both ways; more power as RHB
home/away (h/a): .821 vs .705 ops; 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; much more power at home
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other):

2) 2B Orlando Hudson (S): .331/.416/.519

proj: .280/.355/.415
bb: 16%
k: 15%
gb: 49%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected above average (.315-ish)-- pretty good at avoiding infield flies and has done very well on line drives historically despite unamazing power; my research indicates he should be around .323
s/c/z: very good eye and pretty patient; pretty good contact skill too
r/l: .808 vs .709 ops; 1.6 k/bb both ways
h/a: .824 vs .745 ops; 1.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter as RHB but opposite field hitter as LHB
other: better against groundball pitchers (.835 vs .703 ops)

3) Andre Ethier (L): .285/.399/.488

proj: .295/.365/.470
bb: 9.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected high (.330-ish) which makes sense given that he rarely pops out, and hits his flyballs far; my research suggests he should be around .335
s/c/z: pretty good eye and good contact skill (especially high given high strikeout rate)
r/l: .882 vs .758 ops; 1.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .889 vs .822 ops; 1.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

4) 1B James Loney (L): .264/.348/.322

proj: .295/.350/.455
bb: 8%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .320, probably because he hits a lot of balls hard. my research suggest around .309.
s/c/z: not so great eye but close to to average, good contact skill, thrown a lot of pitches out of the strike zone
r/l: .865 vs .731 ops; 1.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .729 vs .925 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

5) C Russell Martin (R): .272/.390/.320

proj: .285/.380/.430
bb: 12.5%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .315, but my research sees him around average (.301) since he pops out a lot and isn't especially fast
s/c/z: very patient, pretty good eye, average contact
r/l: .762 vs .900 ops; 1.3 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .803 vs .786 ops; 1.1 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Matt Kemp (R): .275/.343/.483

proj: .300/.350/475
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 3%
ifh: 10%
babip: extremely high BABIP on groundballs which makes sense somewhat given infield hit rate, but .354 career seems high. however, my research sees him coming in around .352. Avoiding popouts explains why his BABIP is high on flyballs and he hits balls hard, so he should be good on flyballs. projected .360 BABIP isn't all that ridiculous, but probably should be lower.
s/c/z: good eye, poor contact
r/l: .782 vs .930 ops; 4.1 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .865 vs .787 ops; 3.7 vs 3.4 k/bb; much power at home
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers (do the dodgers play the same terrible groundball pitcher or something?)

7) 3B Casey Blake (R): .260/.347/.500

proj: .265/.335/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 22%
gb: 40%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .310. my research puts him around .315. he doesn't popout much and gets a decent number of infield hits.
s/c/z: patient hitter with okay eye and slightly below average contact skill
r/l: .765 vs .822 ops; 2.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .726 vs .832 ops; 2.4 k/bb both ways
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

8) OF Juan Pierre (L): .426/.481/.511

proj: .285/.325/.360
bb: 5.5%
k: 7%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: he's projected around average (.300) but my research puts him closer to .310 he's very fast though not powerful and does popout a little. however, he spreads the ball around pretty well.
s/c/z: quite bad eye the past few years despite having a good eye early in career, somewhat impatient, great contact skill
r/l: .726 vs .694 ops; 0.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .735 vs .700 ops; 0.9 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: slight opposite field hitter
other: none

BENCH

This season, the Dodgers have gotten a lot of production out of their pinch hitters. In 43 PA, they have a line of .368/.442/.421. This is largely due to Mark Loretta, who is 7 for 12 this season as a pinch hitter with 3 walks and a double. Up until Manny's suspension, Juan Pierre was getting a decent share of pinch hitting opportunities, but he was only 2 for 12 in those attempts. Pinch hitting is not a terribly persistent skill, and certainly not for a such a small sample size, so it's unlikely that the Dodgers maintain pinch hitting success like this. The Dodgers only carry four bench players, including backup catcher Brad Ausmus who has not pinch hit. Loretta is not an especially good baseball player at this point, and should not be expected to produce much. Juan Castro has gone 7 for 16 this season, but is projected to have an OPS around .590. Both Castro and Loretta are right-handed. Xavier Paul is the only LH PH on the bench at the moment. In the minors, he did not have an especially strong platoon split.

C Brad Ausmus (R): .381/.435/.429

proj: .220/.300/.290
bb: 9.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 51%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .270, which makes sense given his mediocre strikeout rate, weak power, his propensity to pop out, and his slow speed.
s/c/z: good eye, patient, decent contact
r/l: .653 vs .729 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .700 vs .641 ops; 1.4 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Mark Loretta (R): .333/.444/.367

proj: .275/.340/.365
bb: 9%
k: 11%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around average which seems about right.
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, very good contact
r/l: .742 vs .805 ops; 1.4 vs 0.7 k/bb
h/a: .802 vs .722 ops; 0.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Juan Castro (R): .438/.412/.563

proj: .220/.270/.320
bb: 5.5%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected very low (around .260). he doesn't have much power and isn't particularly fast, so this could be right.
s/c/z: good eye, not very patient, average contact
r/l: .605 vs .582 ops; 4.1 vs 1.8 k/bb; much more power against RHB though
h/a: .600 vs .598 ops; 3.3 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Xavier Paul (L): .500/.500/.500

proj: .255/.315/.385
bb: 7.5%
k: 24%
gb: 50% in minors in 2008
iff: 3% in minors in 2008
ifh: ?
babip: seems pretty good due to high GB rate and low pop up rate
s/c/z: ?
r/l: seems to hit LHP a bit harder but with similar k/bb numbers in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: ?
other: none

SUSPENDED: LF Manny Ramirez (R): .348/.492/.641

proj: .300/.395/.540
bb: 14%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 8%
ifh: 5%
babip: does well on line drives and avoids popups pretty well; spreads ball around so he does okay on groundballs too-- projected to hit .330 or so, which sounds about right. my research puts him at .322.
s/c/z: good eye and average contact, pitched around a lot
r/l: .982 vs 1.073 ops; 1.6 vs 0.9 k/bb; similar power both ways
h/a: 1.107 vs .994; 1.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter, but not very much at all for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

The Dodgers will send young lefty Clayton Kershaw to the mound against the Phillies on Tuesday night. Kershaw has had an up and down season, with some very good performances and some clunkers. He comes into this game having won his first game of the year against Washington last Wednesday. He has struggled thus far in 2009 with runners on base, which explains why his ERA is higher than his FIP. His outpitch is his curveball, and he's pretty tough on lefthanded pitchers, but not amazingly tough. He throws fastball a lot-- last year about 71% and this year about 77% of the time, and he clocks in around 93-94. He has a changeup that he throws occasionally about 10 mph slower than that, and his curveball is 10 mph slower than that. On Wednesday, the Phillies will face another lefthander, our old friend Randy Wolf. The Phillies have repeatedly targeted Wolf in his free agent stints since leaving town, but Wolf has preferred to stay on the West Coast. This year with the Dodgers, he has been more successful than in his other injury riddled years since leaving town. He has had a bit more control than most projection systems projected, though he has been a tiny bit lucky with the longball. Despite pitching well, Wolf has gotten no decisions in his last five starts. He has not yet faced an offense like the Phillies' offense this year, and the Phillies will hope to bump that ERA up a bit. Wolf throws a slider and a curveball a lot, in addition to his fastball, and he mixes in a change up as well. His curveball is only about 67mph, which contrasts nicely with his 89mph fastball. Wolf does pretty well against lefties, and has done particularly well against them this year. By the time the Phillies get to face a right-handed starting pitcher, it will be Chad Billingsley on Thursday evening. Billingsley enters with an exceptional 2.45 ERA, but a large portion of that is due to some luck on flyballs. Only 1 of his 47 flyballs surrendered landed on the crowd's side of the fence, and so he is not quite as good as his ERA. He has thrown his cutter a lot more this year, which has helped him against LHB it seems, as he has struck out 25% of righties that stepped into the batter's box to face him this year. Billingsley has seven complete games in as many starts this year, but comes off his first loss of the season against the Giants despite only surrendering three runs in seven innings. Billingsley has been quite lucky with runners on base this year, allowing only a .226 BABIP in those situations despite a 1.25 k/ubb in those situations and a stronger 3.9 k/bb with bases empty. His only homerun came with the bases empty as well.

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Clayton Kershaw (L): 4.91 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.16 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% cb, 5% ch, 0.3% sl
r/l: .752 vs .741 ops; 1.8 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .667 vs .843 ops; 2.9 vs 1.4 k/bb

Kershaw vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 2/4, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Randy Wolf (L): 2.95 ERA, 2.95 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 18% cb, 13% sl, 9% ch
r/l: .761 vs .706 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .724 vs .776 ops; 2.4 vs 2.1 k/bb

Wolf vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/14, 3 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB,0 K

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Chad Billingsley (R): 2.45 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 3.00 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 59% fb, 19% ct, 18% cb, 2% ch, 2% sl
r/l: .634 vs .766 ops; 2.8 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .702 vs .695 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Billingsley vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/6, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Utley: 2/5, 2 BB (2 IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Werth: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Eric Stults (L): 3.58 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.84 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 64% fb, 24% ch, 12% cb, 0.2% sl
r/l: .778 vs .989 ops; 1.6 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .786 vs .858 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb

Stults vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/2, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Jeff Weaver (R): 2.57 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.96 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.15 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 50% fb, 20% sl, 16% cb, 7% ct, 8% ch
r/l: .687 vs .858 ops; 3.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .770 vs .785 ops; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Weaver vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 13/34, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 5/21, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Stairs: 7/17, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 5/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/5, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

The Dodgers bullpen has been very good so far in 2009, in large part due to the incredibly impressive season that Jonathan Broxton has had. While some of this success can surely be attributed to Broxton frantically trying to build up his numbers before Matt Stairs rips one into the night, the transformation has nonetheless been very impressive. Broxton has struck out 27 of the 56 hitters he has faced, and has picked up a few mph on his incredibly fast fastball. He has averaged 97.5mph this season on his fastball, in fact. In Broxton's career, he has gotten hitters to miss at 50% of the pitches out of the strike zone that he has thrown, but this year, that is up to 75%. Righthanded hitters have always struggled with him, but Broxton has not allowed a single hit to a lefthanded batter this year in 29 PA. He has struck out 14 LHB and walked only one. The Phillies would do themselves a service to avoid save situations, since Broxton is on fire. The rest of the bullpen has not been particularly kind to hitters either, even without tough lefthanded setup man Hong-Chih Kuo (who is on the DL). Belisario has been an impressive righty out of the pen, striking out 10.2 per nine. Ramon Troncoso has been impressive as well, limiting his walks with only a 2.21 ERA. The Dodgers carry eight men in the pen, but only two are lefthanded. Will Ohman is the primary LOOGY, but he has not been impressive against them thus far. In 21 PA, he has surrendered 3 HR (to Ian Stewart, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jody Gerut) and only K'd 3. The other lefty is Brent Leach. He has only faced seven hitters thus far this year, but his minor league numbers indicate a lack of a significant split.

CL: Jonathan Broxton (R): 0.56 ERA, 2.25 BB/9, 15.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 0.74 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 3.00 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 75% fb, 22% sl, 3% ch
r/l: .539 vs .694 ops; 7.7 vs 1.7 k/bb (major difference is walks)
h/a: .559 vs .671 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Broxton vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ronald Belisario (R): 3.26 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 10.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.69 FIP, 59% GB

proj avg: 6.00 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 81% fb, 18% sl, 0.4% ch
r/l: .533 vs .862 ops; 8k/0bb vs rhb, 9k/7bb vs lhb
h/a: .769 vs .615; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Belisario: has not played any Phillies

Cory Wade (R): 5.59 ERA, 0.9 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.25 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 56% fb, 28% cb, 16% ch
r/l: .588 vs .584 ops; 2.3 vs 8.7 k/bb (not much data)
h/a: .421 vs .730 ops; 6.2 vs 2.2 k/bb (not much data)

Wade: has not played Phillies

Will Ohman (L): 4.66 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 2.8 HR/9, 7.42 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 64% fb, 34% sl, 2% ch
r/l: .749 vs .614 ops; 1.5 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .799 vs .573 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb

Ohman vs Phillies:

Howard: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 9 K
Utley: 4/13, 1 2B, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/7, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K,
Werth: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Guillermo Mota (R): 7.43 ERA, 6.75 BB/9, 4.05 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 5.95 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 55% fb, 25% sl, 20% ch, 0.3% sf
r/l: .678 vs .727 op; 2.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .720 vs .680 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Mota vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 3/9, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/4, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brent Leach (L): 18.00 ERA, 18.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 7.18 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 50% in minors last year
pitches: ?
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.6 k/bb in minors last year
h/a: not enough info

Leach: has not played any Phillies

Ramon Troncoso (R): 2.21 ERA, 0.9 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.49 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% ch, 4% sl, 0.5% ct
r/l: .647 vs .633 ops; 2.6 vs 4.5 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .617 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Tronsoco vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

James McDonald (R): 7.27 ERA, 7.3 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 6.58 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 70% fb, 16% cb, 14% ch
r/l: .956 vs .567 ops; 0.14 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .746 vs .716 ops; 0.25 vs 0.9 k/bb

McDonald: has not played any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Hiroki Kuroda (R): 1.59 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 3.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.00 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 59% fb, 26% sl, 12% sf, 2% ct, 0.2% cb
r/l: .605 vs .703 ops; 3.7 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .615 vs .688 ops; 4.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Kuroda vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Utey: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Hong-Chih Kuo (L): 6.75 ERA, 6.75 BB/9, 6.75 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 7.49 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 3.40 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 81% fb, 12% sl, 6% cb, 1% ch
r/l: .685 vs .635 ops; 2.2 vs 4.4 k/bb
h/a: .637 vs .695 ops; 2.0 vs 3.7 k/bb

Kuo vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1 BB, 1 Sac
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

PHILLIES

LINE UP

The heart of the Phillies lineup is very left handed. The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations. Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties. The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is back in the lineup, but struggling again. Utley and Ibanez have both been on fire and have carried the team, though Utley has been battling a sore foot after being hit by a pitch last weekend. Overall, the offense has been spectacular thus far. The leadoff man, however, has not been. His problems seem real, as he only has seven extra base hits this year. Surprisingly, he does seem to be making similar contact and laying off pitches out of the strike zone similarly to previous years according to his page on fangraphs.com. Even still, he seems to be walking less and striking out more, which sounds like a mental problem to me given that his eye is apparently no worse, nor is his ability to make contact. That would be a good thing, since mental problems can be fixed more quickly than aging problems. His extra base hit output seems to be a major question, though. His one homerun this year came as a pinch hitter and barely made it over the fence. He has not hit a single homerun righthanded either. His problems also seem largely BABIP related, and from both sides of the plate. The most likely culprit is that he is not making contact with the right pitches. Additionally, 6 of the 18 line drives he has hit this year have been caught, and only 5 of his 49 groundballs have found the hole (with 2 more hits coming on infield hits). Indeed, Jimmy's problems are largely luck and mental, and he should rebound nicely...hopefully soon. Meanwhile, the rest of the lineup has mostly been very effective. Ibanez and Utley have continued their fantastic seasons, and Ryan Howard is hitting the ball very well too. Howard has 16 extra base hits, despite only 6 homeruns. Many of those hits have been long flyballs that have fallen just short of the fence. MLB.com's hitting charts are not working right now for some reason, but if they do get fixed, I will plot the one I was looking at the other day. It basically showed Ryan Howard hitting a lot of flyballs just short of the outfield wall. He's probably going to start hitting a few over it soon. His homeruns have been way outtahere so far this year. Looking at this website, we can see that five of Howard's homeruns went over 417 feet. Many of his doubles and flyouts have gone very far as well. Look for Howard to hit a bomb or two this series.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .195/.231/.268

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .272/.319/.464

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .309/.437/.639

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .287/.364/.539

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall-- my system sees him at .310.
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .287/.392/.564

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .327/.386/.655

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .303/.355/.424

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .172/.273/.207

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288, but he seems to have trouble matching projections for him.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side. Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power. Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs. From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP. Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs. The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo. He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions. Cairo has only managed a single hit thus far in 13 chances, and his time is bound to be limited. The backup catching duties fall to Chris Coste who has also struggled.

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .143/.231/.286

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .148/.207/.148

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .353/.522/.765

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R): .133/.133/.133

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Chris Coste (R): .204/.316/.367

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

ROTATION

The Phillies rotation has struggled a lot early, though they seem to be mostly struggling with bad luck rather than bad performances. Their walk and strikeout rates across the board are indicative that we should expect similar performances to last season, and their groundball rates haven't been out of the norm either. However, all of them seem to struggling on homeruns per flyball. This is known to be a luck based statistic, with little variance in skill level, so it is somewhat hard to believe that they would necessarily continue to perform this badly. However, it does seem coincidental that all of them would struggle with it at once.

TUESDAY STARTER: Chan Ho Park (R): 6.67 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.19 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 12/25, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 Sac
Furcal: 8/22, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Loretta: 7/23, 0 BB, 5 K
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
Hudson: 3/11, 2 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
CastrO: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Ethier: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Blake: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Kemp: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Martin: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.26 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.9 HR/9, 7.67 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Hudson: 4/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Blake: 2/17, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Pierre: 3/11, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Furcal: 2/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Martin: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 6.17 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 4.85 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Dodgers:

Blake: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Hudson: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Loney: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Pierre: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 6.82 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.63 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/21, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 Sac
Kemp: 2/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 4/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Hudson: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Frucal: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Brett Myers (R): 4.81 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 6.27 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 13/40, 1 2B, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Furcal: 6/28, 1 2B, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Loretta: 7/22, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Ausmus: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 4/10, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Martin: 3/9, 1 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 1/7, 1 BB, 3 K
Loney: 1/6, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Blake: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but has gotten through a few tough saves anyway. However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball if he is healthy, which is certainly looking like a big if. His health itself has been in question as he has recently took a weak off to heal a sore knee. Lidge has struggled mightily in his recent appearances, both in surrendering bigger hits and walking hitters. On the other hand, setup man Ryan Madson has been very good. Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009. He has had a few bad moments and a few moments of dominance thus far. The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May. Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen. Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man. Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB. Taschner is looking more and more like he should not face lefthanded hitters much either. Check out this article from Eric Seidman, a Phillies fan who writes for Baseball Prospectus, if you have a subscription to it (not sure that it's free content). He discusses LOOGYs in detail and rejects Jack Taschner explicitly as a worthwhile LOOGY (which I admit that I emailed with him several weeks about, wondering if we had been too dismissive of him) Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while. He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times. Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible. However, he has been extremely good this year and may deserve a little more exposure than I give him credit for. The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far. It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 8.53 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 3.55 HR/9, 8.31 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Dodgers:

Furcal: 0/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Pierre: 3/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 2/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Kemp: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.70 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.13 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Dodgers:

Furcal: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Pierre: 3/12, 1 3B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Loretta: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Hudson: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 0/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 1 BB, 2 Sac
Kemp: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Blake: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 5.40 ERA, 8.1 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 2.7 HR/9, 9.03 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 4/15, 2 BB, 4 K
Furcal: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Pierre: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 5.14 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 6.18 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Loney: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Furcal: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 3.57 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.84 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Dodgers:

Blake: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Hudson: 1/4, 1 3B< 0 BB< 1 K
Kemp: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.12 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 3/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 6/7, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 3/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 3/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ausmus: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1 BB

J.A. Happ (L): 2.84 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.49 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Dodgers

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/10, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Ausmus: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 2/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/1, 3 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Phillies vs. Braves: May 8-10

Matt Swartz — Fri, 08 May 2009 22:39:10 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Jayson Werth and the Phillies head home to face the Braves this weekend. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (14-12) face off against the Braves (13-15) this weekend at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are just half a game ahead of the Mets and Marlins after a disappointed two game sweep at the hands of the Mets in New York this week. The Phillies send Cole Hamels to the hill in game one tonight, and that will give Phillies fans a little more insight into their season. Hamels has showed flashes of brilliance at certain times in various starts this year, but has had a couple unlucky minor injuries pull him from games thus far. The Phillies will face lefty Jo-Jo Reyes tonight, who has handled lefties pretty well thus far in his career. On Saturday, the Phillies send Joe Blanton out to face Javier Vazquez, and on Sunday, they send Myers out again after a disappointing last start in St. Louis. He'll face Kenshin Kawakami, the Japanese player the Braves picked up for a hefty price this year who has been disappointing to Braves fans in the early going.

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:05: Cole Hamels vs. Jo-Jo Reyes
Saturday, 3:40: Joe Blanton vs. Javier Vazquez
Sunday, 12:35: Brett Myers vs. Kenshin Kawakami

I've redone the Braves player by player splits and peripherals to follow more along the lines of what I have been doing for more recent series. I've also updated the 2009 statistics for each player on both teams, and included pitcher vs. hitter splits under every pitcher.

BRAVES

LINE UP

Brian McCann returns from the disabled list to join the Braves tonight. The Braves lineup is pretty solid, but they don't have a very strong outfield. Chipper Jones remains one of the best hitters in baseball, he hits third. The Braves lineup is very top heavy, so hopefully the Phillies' pitchers can get passed the tough guys early in the lineup.

1) 2B Kelly Johnson (L): .232/.323/.402

projection average (proj): .280/.360/.450
projected BB/PA (bb): 11%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 39%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 8%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 6%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected high (.330ish), has done well on flyballs despite high infield fly rate. probably explains some of poor season thus far.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): pretty good eye and pretty patient, average contact skill
righty/lefty (r/l): .790/.794 ops; 1.6 vs 2.2 k/bb (.363 BABIP vs lefties unsustainable)
home/away (h/a): .802/.781 ops; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): none

2) SS Yunel Escobar (R): .300/.358/.420

proj: .290/.360/.410
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 56%
iff: 4%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected high (around .320) which makes sense given low infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: very good eye, reasonably patient, good contact
r/l: .811/.757 ops; 1.3/1.2 k/bb
h/a: .826/.760 ops; 1.3/1.2 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around
other: none

3) 3B Chipper Jones (S): .295/.427/.487

proj: .310/.420/.560
bb: 14%
k: 15.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 6% (about 4% from 2006-2008 though; however, 14% in 2009)
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .340 which might even be low, given my BABIP projection system. he rarely pops out (though he has this year) and spreads ball around well. he hits his flyballs very far leading to higher flyball BABIP. he also does very well on line drives which is not surprising given his power and contact mix.
s/c/z: excellent eye, pretty patient, okay contact
r/l: .972/.909 ops; 0.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .987/.924 ops; 0.9 vs 1.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter both ways but plenty of spreading the ball around for a power hitter
other: none

4) C Brian McCann (L): .195/.333/.415

proj: .295/.365/.505
bb: 9%
k: 13%
gb: 38%
iff: 11%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected a little above average which is pretty reasonable given his power. he should do well on line drives, hitting the ball deep into gaps. he pops out a decent amount and doesn't spread the ball around amazingly, so he shouldn't be all that hot on groundballs or flyballs, but he should be above average on babip.
s/c/z: okay contact skill. his eye is obvious a major question mark since he's just coming off the disabled list to solve the problem with his eyes. historically, he has had an above average eye but not particularly patient. this year he started off the year patient with a poor eye.
r/l: .886 vs .784 ops; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .852 vs .860 ops; 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; poor power on road but better average at home
p/o: pretty solid pull hitter; typical for a power hitter
other: he should be coming off the disabled list today, but it remains to be seen what effect his new glasses and eye surgery will have. hopefully something that takes three days to adjust to, and then i wish him well. mccann is the kind of player that i would love if he wasn't on a division rival's team-- solid eye and good power, smart player.

5) LF Garret Anderson (L): .167/.231/.250

proj: .280/.320/.430
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 41%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: free swinger with previously decent but now eroding eye; average contact skill
r/l: .813/.751 ops; 2.2 vs 5.1 k/bb
h/a: .792/.797 ops; 2.8 k/bb both ways
p/o: extreme pull hitter
other: none

6) Jeff Francoeur (R): .286/.305/.429

proj: .270/.320/.430
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected slightly above average but given infield fly rate, that might be optimistic; he does spread ball around well and gets a decent number of infield hits
s/c/z: major free swinger without a good eye-- has improved high this year but still swings at way too many pitches out of the strike zone, slightly above average contact skill
r/l: .714/.824 ops; 4.3 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .793/.700 ops; 3.2 vs 4.4 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not that much for a power hitter
other: struggles a lot against power pitchers

7) 1B Casey Kotchman (L): .313/.377/.458

proj: .280/.350/.440
bb: 9%
k: 10%
gb: 52%
iff: 14%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected below average (.280s); makes sense since he pops up a lot, is slow, and doesn't spread ball around field well
s/c/z: okay eye, not very patient, good contact skill
r/l: .751/.745 ops; 1.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .763/.737 ops; 1.1 vs 1.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: very good against finesse pitchers

8) CF Jordan Schafer (L): .239/.375/.370

proj: .240/.310/.400
bb: 8%
k: 25% (but 43% thus far in 2009)
gb: 44%
iff: 12% (2 of 16 in 2009)
ifh: 10% (2 in 20 GB in 2009)
babip: has been very high but probably not much reason for that; pops up a lot and doesn't spread ball around well
s/c/z: swings a lot with terrible contact skill thus far
r/l: .729 vs .743 thus far in 2009 but that's only with his high BABIP; approximately 1.9 k/bb without much split
h/a: not enough info
p/o: thus far extreme pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

No one jumps out as an obvious threat on the Braves bench. They are all righthanded except for Greg Norton, the switch hitter who is better fro mthe left side.

C David Ross (R): .298/.411/.574

proj: .220/.320/.400
bb: 12%
k: 28%
gb: 34%
iff: 15%
ifh: 6%
babip: below average for sure-- makes poor/weak contact and pops up a lot. has decent power, but still not great.
s/c/z: very good eye; not especially patient; poor contact skill
r/l: .740 vs .781 ops; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .787 vs .724 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: extreme pull hitter
other: none

UI Martin Prado (R): .290/.371/.516

proj: .300/.355/.410
bb: 8%
k: 14%
gb: 43%
iff: 12%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected very high, but that's based on historical success on groundballs and flyballs that doesn't seem realistic given his lack of significant power
s/c/z: patient, pretty good eye, very good contact
r/l: .838 vs .770; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .833; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: pretty clear opposite field hitter
other: none

1B/OF Greg Norton (S): .105/.292/.158

proj: .260/.355/.415
bb: 12.5%
k: 23%
gb: 40%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected average which seems about right
s/c/z: good eye, reasonably patient, slightly below average contact skill
r/l: .789 vs .648 ops; 1.8 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .759 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter, slightly moreso as lefty
other: none

UI Omar Infante (R): .349/.386/.397

proj: .280/.330/.400
bb: 6%
k: 16%
gb: 35%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected pretty high but that might be overstating due to speed since he does pop up a lot and doesn't have great power (so he doesn't hit the ball that hard or far). historically average to high babip probably lucky.
s/c/z: okay eye, pretty patient, okay contact
r/l: .694 vs .707 ops; 2.8 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .650 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

OF Matt Diaz (R): .230/.324/.410

proj: .295/.335/.440
bb: 4%
k: 19%
gb: 49%
iff: 4%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected very high which is actually probably reasonable given speed, low pop up rate, ability to spread the ball around, and his decent power. historically it's probably been higher than it should so perhaps the projected around .340-.350 are too high but .330 seems reasonable.
s/c/z: horrible eye and major free swinger without quite average contact skill. still thrown a lot of strikes but that has gone this year as his stats have too.
r/l: .714 vs .857 ops; 5.3 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .787 vs .788 ops; 4.0 vs 4.5 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but pretty much spreads ball around well
other: none

ROTATION

The Phillies will face the bottom three of the Braves rotation this weekend. They face lefty Jo-Jo Reyes on Friday who is tough against lefties, but otherwise pretty pedestrian. The switch hitters at the top of the lineup and Werth are probably going to play a big role in how well Reyes does tonight. On Saturday, the Phillies will face Javier Vazquez who they hit reasonably well before managing an impossible comeback win in the bullpen against in April. On Sunday, the Phillies face Kenshin Kawakami, the Japanese import who has disappointed Braves fans early in 2009.

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Jo-Jo Reyes (L): 5.00 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.69 FIP, 61% GB rate (18 IP only)

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 66% fb, 11% sl, 15% ch, 8% cb
r/l: .920 vs .642 ops; 1.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .851 vs .877 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Reyes vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/13, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 3/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 3 GDP
Utley: 4/12, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 4/9, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Ruiz: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 3/7, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Bruntlett: 0/3, 1 Bb, 2 K
Coste: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Javier Vazquez (R): 4.19 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 11.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.80 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9,
gb: 39%
pitches: 53% fb, 23% sl, 13% cb, 11% ch, 0.3% ct
r/l: .730 vs .743 ops; 4.1 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: .720 vs .752 ops; 3.7 vs 3.1 k/bb

Vazquez vs Phillies:

Rollins: 8/47, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Stairs: 2/24, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Feliz: 4/17, 3 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 6/16, 3 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/11, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 4/12, 2 2B, 2 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Howard: 2/5, 1 2B< 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 3B< 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Kenshin Kawakami (R): 6.41 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 5.55 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.22 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: --
pitches: (in 2009)- 62% fb, 14% cb, 12% ct, 10% sf, 2% ch, 0.6% sl
r/l: .998 vs .891 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb (in 2009)
h/a: .790 vs 1.203 ops; 2.2 vs 0.75 k/bb (in 2009)

Kawakami: has not played Phillies

NOT FACING US: Derek Lowe (R): 3.98 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.60 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .638 vs .735 ops; 3.4 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .654 vs .719 ops; 2.7 vs 2.0 k/b

Lowe vs Phillies (**excluding postseason 2009**)

Feliz: 5/26, 2 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Ibanez: 2/22, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 7/23, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/19, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 2/15, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 SF
Utley: 5/17, 3 2B, 1 BB, 0 K (also homered off him in NLCS 2009)
Cairo: 2/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Dobbs: 0/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burntlett: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Jair Jurrjens (R): 2.01 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% ch, 14% sl
r/l: .652 vs .744 ops; 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .785 vs .616 ops; 1.8 vs 1.7 k/bb

Jurrjens vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 4/14, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 4/13, 2 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/12, 1 Bb, 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 Bb, 0 K
Cairo: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

The back end of the Braves bullpen is pretty mean, with Gonzalez able to close out games well and Soriano a solid set up man. Otherwise, their pen is pretty weak and the Phillies already exploited it once this year. They only have one lefty other than the closer Gonzalez, and that's Eric O'Flaherty who is not especially dominant against lefties at all.

CL Mike Gonzalez (L): 3.86 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 13.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.24 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 57% fb, 42% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .608 vs .634 ops; 2.3 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .598 vs .39 ops; 2.5 vs 2.7 k/bb

Gonzalez vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/7, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Utley: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Rafael Soriano (R): 1.29 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 12.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.97 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 77% fb, 22% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .532 vs .694 ops; 4.3 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .636 vs .574 ops; 3.1 vs 3.8 k/bb

Soriano vs Phillies:

Dobbs: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Peter Moylan (R): 7.15 ERA, 7.15 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.54 FIP, 68% GB

proj avg: 4.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 62%
pitches: 79% fb, 17% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .578 vs .662 ops; 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .719 vs .521 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Moylan vs Phillies:

Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Coste: 1 Sac
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Jeff Bennett (R): 0.71 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.48 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 4.2 ERA, 4.0 BB?9, 6.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 74% fb, 21% sl, 3% cb, 3% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .698 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .691 vs .824 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Bennett vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/6, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
RUiz: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 Bb, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2 BB (1 IBB)
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Eric O'Flaherty (L): 2.70 ERA, 0.9 BB/9, 3.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.29 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% fb, 42% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .856 vs .602 ops; 1.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .743 vs .732 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb

O'Flaherty vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Buddy Carlyle (R): 5.11 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 73% fb, 19% ct, 5% ch, 2% cb, 0.2% sl
r/l: .696 vs .942 ops; 2.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .781 vs .838 ops; 2.25 vs 2.05 k/bb

Carlyle vs Phillies:

Rollins: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 2/5, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Ruiz: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 Bb, 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 2 BB (1 iBB), 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

James Parr (R): 4.50 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.69 FIP, 48% gb

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 32%
pitches: 72% fb, 13% ch, 9% cb, 5% sl
r/l: 1.090 vs .782 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb (62 vs 69 PA only)
h/a: not enough info

Parr vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

Francoeur: 6/31, 0 Bb, 9 K, 1 Sf
Diaz; 5/21, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 3/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Jones: 5/15, 3 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Infante: 5/16, 1 Bb, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 3/16, 1 2B< 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 1/11, 1 2B, 4 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 4/9, 3 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Norton: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.84 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.65 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Braves:
McCann: 3/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

Anderson: 11/35, 2 2B, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Kotchman: 7/23, 4 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Infante: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Escobar: 3/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 3/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 5.35 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.61 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Braves:

McCann: 11/30, 4 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 10 K

Jones: 12/33, 2 2B, 3 HR, 8 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 7/34, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 7 K
JohnsOn: 3/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Anderson: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 1/8, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Infante: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Matt Diaz: 3/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 3/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Norton: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Schafer: 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB)

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Chan Ho Park (R): 6.67 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.19 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Braves:

McCann: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K

Anderson: 15/43, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K
Jones: 10/31, 2 2B, 2 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
JohnsOn: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Kotchman: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Infante: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schafer: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.26 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.9 HR/9, 7.67 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Braves:

McCann: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K, 1 HBP

Anderson: 34/107, 9 BB, 1 3B, 5 HR, 2 BB, 15 K, 1 SF
Francoeur: 8/27, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Jones: 7/16, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Diaz; 4/12, 1 2B, 3 Bb, 1 K, 1 SF
Escobar: 4/15, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Prado: 6/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Infante: 3/12, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 4/10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sf
Kotchman: 6/12, 0 BB, 0 K
Norton: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Ros: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Schafer: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but has gotten through a few tough saves anyway. However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball if he is healthy. His health itself has been in question as he has recently took a weak off to heal a sore knee. In his stead, Ryan Madson was very good. Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009. He has had a few bad moments and a few moments of dominance thus far. The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May. Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen. Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man. Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday. Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while. He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times. Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible. However, he has been extremely good this year and may deserve a little more exposure than I give him credit for. The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far. It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 6.75 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 3.4 HR/9, 7.87 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Braves:

McCann: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K

Jones: 3/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Escobar: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Francoeur: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Ross: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
DiaZ: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Anderson: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Infante: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Schafer: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.70 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.13 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Braves:

McCann: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 KFrancoeur: 3/12, 0 BB, 3 K
Jones: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 1/4, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Escobar: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Norton: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Infante: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Anderson: 1 BB
Diaz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 6.35 ERA, 7.9 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 3.2 HR/9, 9.54 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Braves:

McCann: 3/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K

Anderson: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Francoeur: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 k
Johnson: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Diaz: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ross: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Infante: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
JOnes: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 4.38 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.11 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Braves:

McCann: 3/8, 1 BB, 0 K

Jones: 0/7, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Escobar: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Anderson: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Infante: 1/1, 1 2B

Chad Durbin (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 6.19 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Braves:

McCann: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Anderson: 3/10, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 SF
Francoeur: 0/10, 0 BB, 4 K
Kotchman: 5/8,3 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Infante: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Diaz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
ROss: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schafer: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 1.69 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.62 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Braves:

McCann: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K

Francoeur: 5/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Infante: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1 BB
Schafer: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

J.A. Happ (L): 2.84 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.84 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Braves:

McCann: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Johnson: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Infante: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Prado: 0/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
DIaz: 1 BB
Schafer: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Braves:

McCann: 1/10, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K

Anderson: 5/15, 1 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Jones: 3/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Infante: 2/9, 0 BB, 6 K
Norton: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K