SB Nation - Jorge Posada

New York Yankees Team of the Decade

Ed Valentine — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 15:34:39 -0000

'Tis the season for teams of the decade. Fans around baseball, except maybe in Boston where you know they would put up a fight, have to concede that the New York Yankees are the team of the decade.

But, looking specifically at the Yankees themselves, what is THEIR Team of the Decade? Some positions, like shortstop, catcher and closer, are obvious. Others, less so.

Here is my stab at naming the New York Yankee Team of the Decade.

C -- Jorge Posada. Duh! Sorry, Francisco Cervelli fans. This one, of course, is easy.

1B -- Jason Giambi. This position presents a real conundrum. The first name that leaps to mind is Giambi, but in his seven seasons with the Yankees he played more than half the team's games at first base just twice. And, he played more than 100 games there only one. He averaged 76.8 games per season at first base as a Yankee. Tino Martinez played just three seasons, but was the full-time first baseman each of those years playing 147 games per season. Tino averaged 22 homers and 83 RBI in his three seasons. Giambi averaged 32 home runs and 94 RBI, splitting his time between first base and designated hitter. Honestly, I hate doing it, but In the end I have to go with Giambi, especially since his pair of 41-home run seasons as a Yankee came when he was the primary first baseman in 2002 and 2003.

2B -- Robinson Cano. A close call here over Alfonso Soriano, based largely on Cano having five seasons (yes, five, can you believe it?) as the starting second baseman. Soriano was terrific, averaging 32 homers, 89 RBI and 39.6 stolen bases, but was a Yankee for just three seasons before being dealt away. Cano has averaged 17 home runs, 79 RBI and has a career average of .306 in five seasons. He is also a better defender. Again, I think length of service gives this one to Cano.

SS -- Derek Jeter. Umm, who else? If I was naming one, Jeter would also be Yankee Player of the Decade. Gee, maybe I just did name one.

3B -- Alex Rodriguez. Again, a no-brainer. Gotta at least give Aaron Boone an honorable mention, though, for his 2003 home run that propelled the Yankees to the World Series.

LF -- Johnny Damon. This is, obviously, between Damon and Hideki Matsui. And, in my opinion, not a choice between which one belongs on the Team of the Decade. Rather, a choice between which one is the left fielder and which one is the designated hitter. In four New York seasons, Damon has been the primary left fielder for just two years. He has DH'ed just 29 times in those two years, however. Matsui has DH'ed 250 times in six productive New York seasons. So, he gets the left field nod.

CF -- Bernie Williams. Bern, baby, Bern! Was a fixture with the Yankees for seven of the decade's 10 seasons, and was an integral part of the lineup. Hit 136 of 287 career home runs this decade. I know many of you are still irritated by how the Yankees treated Bernie at the end, but that's done with. Let's just give him his due.

RF -- Bobby Abreu. This is another excruciatingly tough call. First, it was difficult to rule out fan favorite Paul O'Neill, whom I think with our hearts we would all probably like to give this spot to. O'Neill, though, played just two seasons this decade and in the second was a shell of himself. So, this choice is really between Abreu and Gary Sheffield. Sheffield had two dominant seasons (.290, 36, 121 and .291, 34, 123), but only played 39 games in his third season due to injury. Abreu had two excellent full seasons (.283, 16, 101, 25 steals and .296, 20, 100, 22 steals). I think Abreu gets the nod because of his impact in 2006, when he was traded to the Yankees to replace the injured Sheffield and hit .330 with 7 home runs and 42 RBI in 58 games, helping the Yankees reach the playoffs.

DH -- Hideki Matsui. The World Series MVP absolutely has to have a place on this team. In six Yankee seasons Matsui has been nothing but productive, hitting .292 and averaging 22 home runs and 99.5 RBI per season.

SP -- Andy Pettitte. Whew! Another really difficult call between Pettitte and Mike Mussina. I know 'wins' is not the only way to measure a pitcher, but for the purpose of this argument it shows how close these two are. Mussina won 123 regular-season games, including 20 at the age of 39, in seven Yankee seasons this decade. Pettitte won 111 regular-season games despite spending three wayward seasons in Houston. The real difference between Pettitte and Mussina is post-season success. 'Moose' was 5-7 in Yankee post-season career. Pettitte, this decade, is 11-5 with a World-Series clinching victory fresh in my mind. I could easily name them both, but if I had to take one it would still be Pettitte.

CL -- Mariano Rivera. The best of all time. Period.

Manager -- Joe Torre. What choice do you have here? Joe Girardi has a World Series title in his two seasons, and he will likely be around for a long time. Hopefully, one day his resume will match what Torre did in New York, but not yet. This decade may not have matched the 1990s for Torre in terms of World Series titles, but one championship, two AL pennants, and playoff appearances all eight seasons he managed the team is pretty darn impressive.

So, what do you guys think? Tell me where I'm right. And wrong. And tell me why.

A few Yankee notes for a slow Monday

Ed Valentine — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:14:44 -0000

Just a handful of New York Yankees notes this morning.

Was Watching says the Yanks Should Move Posada To D.H. In 2010.

My guess is there is a lot of agreement around here with that statement. Especially when you consider some of the numbers Was Watching highlighted.

In "The Bill James Handbook 2010" the Fielding Bible’s "Runs Saved" leaders over the last three years are listed at each defensive position.

At "catcher," over the last three years, Yadier Molina has saved the most runs with a mark of +22. Who was the worst, at "catcher," over the last three years here? That would be Jorge Posada with a mark of -23. And, keep in mind, this is with Jorge missing two-thirds of the 2008 season due to injury!

My take: Posada has two years left on his contract. Like it or not, he will enter 2010 as the Yankees' No. 1 catcher. I do believe, though, that Jorge will see less and less time behind the plate over those two seasons.
Looking back at the 2009 trades | The LoHud Yankees Blog
This is a great look at all of the moves, some that affected the big-league roster and some that didn't, from Chad Jennings.
Happy Birthday, Mariano!
Paul Olden, public address announcer at Yankee Stadium, gets blessing from 'Voice of God"

Andy Pettitte a Hall of Famer?

Ed Valentine — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:00:13 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

Andy Pettitte

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We talked the other day about Jorge Posada's Hall of Fame worthiness. The other borderline New York Yankees is, of course, the veteran left-hander and long-time fan favorite Andy Pettitte.

So, here is your challenge for the day. Make your case for whether or not Pettitte is worthy of election to the Baseball Hall of Fame. As with Posada, I think Pettitte is a borderline case.

You can make a perfectly good, rational argument for why Pettitte is worthy of being enshrined in Cooperstown. You can also make a perfectly good, rational argument for why you find the notion of Pettitte being in the Hall of Fame to be ridiculous.

So, which side are you on?

The case for Pettitte

Pettitte, 37, has 229 wins over 15 seasons (15.2 per year) and a winning percentage of .629. He has also been a terrific post-season pitcher thru an era that has seen the Yankees win five World Series titles, compiling a record 18 career post-season victories.

He has won at least 20 games twice, and has never had a losing season. No pitcher has won more games than during the span of his career, which started in 1995.

I know, I know. Victories is not the only way to judge a starting pitcher's Hall of Fame Worthiness. If it was, you would have to put Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat and Mike Mussina, among others, in before even thinking about Pettitte.

If you use Pettitte's Baseball-Reference.com page, you can find similar pitchers who are in Cooperstown, and similar ones who are not.

Dig a little deeper and you see what the veteran left-hander has meant to the Yankees, and briefly the Astros, during his career. He is the pitching version of Tommy Henrich, Old Reliable. His World Series-clinching victory against Philadelphia this season was the sixth post-season series clinching victory of his career.

Forget all the intricate pitching numbers you can use to analyze a pitcher's performance. You can, justifiably, make the case that Pettitte's long-term excellence, consistency and post-season sturdiness make him a Hall of Famer.

The case against Pettitte

It starts with those victories again -- and I know you Sabermetricians out there will kill me for that. But, you can make a logical case that if Blyleven (287 victories), Kaat (283) and Jack Morris (254, and some memorable post-season performances) are not in then Pettitte doesn't belong, either.

You can point to Pettitte's career ERA of 3.90, higher than any other pitcher ever enshrined.

You could argue that Pettitte has not been the best pitcher on his own team, since 1996 and 1997, when he won 21 and 18 games and was the leader of the Yankee pitching staff.

Summary

You can argue this A LOT of different ways. You can throw around all sorts of numbers, whatever suits the case you want to make. You can compare him to all manner of pitchers, both guys in or out of Cooperstown. Again, whichever way suits your case.

For me, as I examine it I think Pettitte gets in. Here's why.

I haven't thought of him as an ace for a long time, but when you go by the "best of his era" test the fact that Pettitte has more victories than anyone during the span of his career puts him in the dominant category. His post-season work during a time in which the Yankees have won five World Series puts him over the top for me.

Your thoughts?

Poll

Will New York Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame when his career is finished?

Yes

595 votes

No

229 votes

Undecided

110 votes

934 votes | Poll has closed

Jorge Posada a Hall of Famer?

Ed Valentine — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:12:46 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Jorge Posada

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Is Jorge Posada worthy of election to the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Occasionally throughout the 2009 season, and recently during this off-season, I have seen the phrase "Future Hall of Famer" attached to Posada's name.

Is that really true? It might be, but each time I have read that statement I have questioned it. So, let's take a look at Jorge's Hall of Fame worthiness.

There are 16 catchers enshrined in Cooperstown. It's probably fair to compare Jorge to the two most modern catchers enshrined -- Carlton Fisk and Gary Carter. I'd say Carter might be the best comparison, especially since the length of their careers will be almost identical when Posada is done playing.

In an 18-year career, Carter finished with 324 home runs, 1,225 RBI and a .262 batting average. In 15 seasons, Posada is at .277 with 243 home runs and 943 RBI. Two more relatively productive seasons and he will be around 270 home runs and close to 1,100 RBIs in 17 seasons. Posada does have higher on-base percentages (.379-.335) and slugging percentages (.480-.439) than Carter.

Are those numbers close enough that you would consider them a wash? You could certainly make that argument, in which case you probably have to say is Carter is a Hall of Famer then Posada should also get in.

There are other factors, though.

There is, of course, Posada's often-discussed defense. As he ages, his defensive deficiencies become more and more of a topic of discussion. In my mind, he has never been great defensively but throughout much of his career you have to say he has been good enough. He has been the catcher for five World Series winners, and that has to count for something.

The other test, for me, is how dominant a player is during his era. Posada has the five rings, and five All-Star appearances. Clearly, though, the dominant catcher of this era is Ivan Rodriguez.

Rodriguez dwarfs Posada both offensively and defensively. Offensively, a .299 career average, 305 home runs, 1,264 RBI, 125 stolen bases. Defensively, 13 Gold Gloves to none for Posada, and a career percentage of throwing out 46 percent of potential base-stealers to Posada's 29 percent.

So, by the dominant player of his era test, Posada does not measure up.

I guess I have always thought of Posada as a very good player, and a very important Yankee during this era because of his bat and his toughness. I have never thought of him as 'great' though, and I am still on the fence about whether or not he will eventually belong in Cooperstown.

What do you guys think?

[NOTE: At some point in the next few days we will also debate Andy Pettitte's HOF worthiness. So, leave him out of this for now, please.]

Poll

Should Jorge Posada be enshrined in the Hall of Fame when his career is over?

Yes

491 votes

No

334 votes

Undecided

261 votes

1086 votes | Poll has closed

Six for Six

dajafi — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:26:33 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

The man who gave us Game Six. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)

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We have exactly six hours, as I write this, before the scheduled first pitch of World Series Game Six. Below, a half-dozen thoughts, most of which have been bubbling for a few days now, to pass at least a bit of that time:

Tonight's pitching matchup, in which future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez (age 38) goes for the Phillies against all-time postseason wins leader Andy Pettitte (37) for the Yankees, is the first time two starters with a combined age of 75 or older have faced off in the Series since Game One of the 2005 Fall Classic between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox, when two ex-Yankees, Roger Clemens (then 43) and Jose Contreras (allegedly 33) went at it. Pettitte's on three days' rest, Pedro is facing an augmented lineup compared to the one he saw in Game Two (when weak-hitting Jose Molina, not slugger Jorge Posada, was behind the plate), and it's gonna be cold. The game easily could become a battle of the bullpens, a scary prospect for both managers.
Phils second baseman Chase Utley has tied Reggie Jackson's World Series record with five home runs in the five games thus far. As several pundits have noted, there's a real chance that Utley could be named the Most Valuable Player of the Series even if the Yankees win: no one player has stood out for New York other than perhaps Johnny Damon, who's batting .381 and has scored five runs, including the Game Four winner; and closer Mariano Rivera, who has finished off all three Yankee wins to this point. (Hideki Matsui is batting .556 with two homers, but he was reduced to pinch-hitting for the three games in Philly; he has just nine at-bats.) Meanwhile, Utley hit two homers in each of the Phils' wins, has scored six times, leads all batters with eight RBIs, and is basically the only reason the Phils have generated any offense in light of Ryan Howard's epic slump and overall subpar hitting from Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez. If Pettitte pitches a great game tonight and gets the win, he'll be MVP with two victories in the Series--but if, say, the Yankees win a high-scoring game in which someone like Mark Teixeira (2 for 19 thus far) or Robinson Cano (3 for 18) is the big hitting star, while Utley goes 4 for 5 with another homer and a bunch of RBI, he'll probably by the MVP. This would be, at best, terribly awkward: for Chase Utley, the one downside of greatness is having to be recognized for his greatness. Imagine Fox's Ken Rosenthal saying, "Congratulations Chase, but your team lost--how do you feel?" You'll get either nothing or a response they'd better have on at least a five-second delay.

Neither manager has covered himself in glory this Series. As I've written here many times, I think Charlie Manuel is easily the greatest manager in Phillies history--but his in-game decisions hurt the team in each of the last four games. He went with Martinez too long in Game Two, made an inexplicable decision to pinch-hit helpless Eric Bruntlett in a big spot in Game Three and then left reliever Chad Durbin in too long when he obviously had no command, did the same with Brad Lidge in the nightmarish Game Four, and then futzed around with the outfield defensive alignment late in Game Five to near-disastrous effect. Maybe worse, he has a dead spot on his roster in the person of rookie lefty reliever Antonio Bastardo, who hasn't yet pitched in the Series and almost certainly won't unless the Phils are getting blown out; meanwhile, with Victorino hurting after getting hit on the hand early in Game Five, there's a chance he'll have to use Bruntlett, among the worst hitters in baseball, as his DH or left fielder in a win-or-die game tonight. I'd seriously rather see Cliff Lee or Hamels--both lefties, mind you--in the lineup against Pettitte.
Meanwhile, Yankee manager Joe Girardi failed to leverage the advantage he earned by his team winning three of the first four games, starting talented but erratic righty A.J. Burnett on short rest for the house-money Game Five, watching him get pummeled, and now having to sweat out the 37 year-old Pettitte doing the same tonight. If he falls short, Game Seven would go to ace CC Sabathia, on double-short rest--a situation in which the Phillies knocked him around in the 2008 National League Division Series. Girardi's bullpen management has been questionable as well: heading toward the end of the Series, he really only can trust Rivera (who, distressingly for the Phils, probably is good for two innings tonight) and perhaps veteran lefty Damaso Marte and rookie righty David Robertson.
It hurts to admit this, but if the Yankees go on to win, the big turning point in the Series will have been the role reversals of Cole Hamels and Pettite in Game Three. Hamels took a 3-0 lead into the fourth inning, got a tough call on a full-count pitch to Teixiera that went for a walk, and then fell to pieces, allowing a controversial home run to Rodriguez that made it 3-2 and surrendering three more runs before getting pulled the next inning. It was Hamels' whole season writ small: bad luck or bad karma followed by bad pitching and a downward spiral he couldn't escape. (To be clear: I'm not slagging Hamels here. The guy was the single biggest reason we won it all last year; for that, from me, he has a lifetime pass.) Pettitte, by contrast, escaped near-disaster early on: he'd thrown 51 pitches and allowed three runs through two innings, but held the Phillies to one run over the next four on a night when, as he reportedly later told teammates, he had "nothing." I kind of hate the guy, as I do most ostentatiously religious athletes, but I can't deny that he pitched like a champion Saturday night.
There's a lot about the Yankees that baseball fans find irritating, from the eternal sense of entitlement among their fan base to the whining about balls and strikes and the innumerable, interminable mound conferences and other delaying tactics they've used in this Series. But what really turns my stomach about their push for a 27th world championship is the notion that they need to "win it for the Boss," ailing owner/tyrant George Steinbrenner. To put it mildly, this isn't a sympathetic guy: he's a convicted felon (for illegal campaign contributions to kindred spirit Richard Nixon) and a confirmed sexist--and this is even before you think about his depredations among team employees or his contributions to worsening baseball's competitive imbalance. As even Yankee great Don Mattingly acknowledged, he's less likable than Monty Burns. The Yankees, and their fans, should have enough reasons to crave victory beyond wanting to provide still more ego validation to a world-class asshole like Steinbrenner, who's probably too unwell to enjoy it anyway.

Meanwhile, the clock continues to wind toward 7:57pm and at least one more baseball game for the highest stakes.

A happy day in the Yankee Universe

Ed Valentine — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 12:47:02 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

The New York Yankees celebrate after beating the Philadelphia Phillies 8-5 in Game 3 of the Major League Baseball World Series Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Philadelphia. The Yankees take a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series.

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Life is good as a New York Yankee fan this morning. A 2-1 World Series lead with CC Sabathia heading to the mound tonight -- against Joe Blanton instead of Cliff Lee.

Let's cruise the Inter-Google while we celebrate the Game 3 victory, and see what is being said Around the Yankee Universe.

New York Daily News media critic Bob Raissman was highly critical of FOX for their reporting -- or lack of reporting on the Alex Rodriguez home run that resulted in the first-ever World Series replay reversal. The camera, of course, belonged to FOX -- a fact that was never mentioned. The other question is, of course, why would the network stick a camera in a place where it could interfere with play?
Mike Lupica has plenty of praise for Andy Pettitte this morning, after Pettitte perservered through six difficult inning.

None of it (the comeback) happens if Andy Pettitte doesn't stand in there against the Phillies, like a hitter standing in against the curve. There have been what feel like a hundred October nights when he had more fastball and more stuff than he showed you against the Phillies in Game 3, those three runs in the first two innings, two home runs by Jayson Werth, the second one a monster shot that went off the facing of the upper deck at Citizens Bank Park.

He pitched six innings, gave up five hits, struck out seven, gave up the two home runs. It does not look like a lot. It was. On this night, the night when the Yankees were trying to get ahead and then give the ball to CC Sabathia, Pettitte was as much a champion Yankee as he has ever been. He needed 17 minutes and 24 pitches to get out of the bottom of the first. He threw over to first eight times after Jimmy Rollins singled. He saw Rollins steal second without even drawing a throw from Jorge Posada. It is supposed to be easier stealing from an armored car.

While Pettitte is drawing praise today, Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels is mostly drawing scorn. Including a 'WTF were you thinking?' reaction to that fifth-inning curveball he threw to Pettitte that resulted in a game-tying single. The following is from SI.com's Tom Verducci, and it probably sums up the reaction of Philly fans and knowledgeable baseball people.

If Game 3 is the turning point of the World Series -- 68 percent of teams up 2-1 go on to win it -- then a Yankees championship began with one pitch from Cole Hamels that will be remembered as one of the great gaffes in recent Series history. The beginning of the end for Philadelphia was a first-pitch curveball Hamels threw New York pitcher Andy Pettitte with no understanding of basic baseball. When Pettitte stepped in, Hamels was working with a 3-2 lead, a runner at second base and -- here's the key part -- one out. Pettitte is a career .134 hitter who has come to bat a total of 12 times over the past three years. Hamels could dispose of him with fastballs, the way J.A. Happ would do the next inning, and he would be one out away from being out of the inning. Instead, Hamels threw a first-pitch curveball up, and Pettitte slapped a single to tie the game. Why in the world would he throw something slow -- and up, no less -- to an American League pitcher? "I made the right pitch to Pettitte," Hamels explained. "A pitcher doesn't hit an oh-and-oh curve in a bunting situation." I was incredulous. I had to follow up, and asked him, "Just to clarify, you thought Pettitte was bunting, so you threw a breaking ball up to try to get him to pop up a bunt?"

"Yes," Hamels said. "That's what I get my fair share of the time when I'm bunting. He swung and got a hit. Baseball is very, very difficult to understand sometimes." Hamels emphasized his point by way of explaining he missed location only once, on a fastball to Johnny Damon that became a two-run double that inning. Hamels clearly did not regard the pitch to Pettitte as a mistake. I couldn't believe it. There is no way Pettitte is bunting there. There is virtually no advantage to be gained from moving a runner from second to third and be left with two outs. With no outs, it's an obvious bunt situation. One out? The pitcher swings away, because even if he strikes out, you still have a runner in scoring position with two outs, and on all but rare occasions the runner will be sent home from second on a single. So you have nothing to lose by letting the pitcher swing away. It's Baseball 101.

After a day off, Nick Swisher came up huge for the Yankees Saturday night.

"Skip [Joe Girardi] sat me down the other day and said, 'Hey, just relax. I want you to just watch this game, enjoy this game,' " Swisher said. "And then we talked about some stuff after the game. But I think it really helped me mentally, not necessarily physically because right now you're such on Cloud Nine because you're playing in the World Series and you don't really feel anything.

"But it was nice for my head to just rest and enjoy that game, and especially for us to win, that was great."

After watching him surrender a ninth-inning home run to Carlos Ruiz, Ken Davidoff wonders what the Yankees will do with Phil Hughes the rest of the Series.

You have to wonder what sort of role Hughes, sporting a 10.80 ERA in eight postseason appearances, will play the rest of the way. If Girardi doesn't trust him to get two outs before surrendering three runs, that doesn't speak much for the manager's confidence.

It is a fair question. My guess is that you will see more David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain. SI.com's Jon Heyman got this tidbit about Hughes from a scout. "He looks frightened, he doesn't look the same."

Other Yankee Doodles

Swisher, Melky Cabrera get back at raucous Philly fans.
Steve Serby hs a Q&A with former Yankee hero Paul O'Neill.
MLB Trade Rumors discusses Hideki Matsui's future.

Burnett Roulette: Yankees 3, Phillies 1

WholeCamels — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:53:26 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

about 1 month ago: New York Yankees' A.J. Burnett reacts after striking out Philadelphia Phillies' Ryan Howard with two men on base during the third inning of Game 2 of the Major League Baseball World Series Thursday, Oct. 29, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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Two games so far, decided by two dominant pitching performances.

A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' erratic free agent acquisition, pitched the game of his life tonight, going seven strong innings, allowing just four hits, striking out nine and walking only two. He allowed just one run, on a smash RBI single off the glove of Alex Rodriguez, scoring Raul Ibanez from second base in the top of the second inning. The Phillies did a decent job making Burnett throw pitches in the early going, but as the game progressed, he became virtually unhittable. Burnett benefited from a wide plate, and the Phillies hitters failed to adjust -- in the later innings, Burnett dropped curveball after curveball on the outside corner, but the Phillies left-handed hitters failed to change their approach.

We got about all we could have hoped for from Pedro Martinez. The veteran righty went six-plus innings, striking out eight and allowing three runs, two on solo home runs from Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui, and a third run on a single by Jorge Posada off Chan Ho Park, scoring the inherited baserunner Brett Gardner. Good, but not quite good enough.

The game was not without controversy, with a pair of double-plays-that-weren't in consecutive half innings; in the bottom of the seventh, with runners on first and second, Johnny Damon lined a ball to Ryan Howard, who snagged the short-hop and threw to second. The ball was called a catch, and the throw to second resulted in a force of Melky Cabrera. In the top of the eighth, with runners on first and second, Chase Utley hit a ground ball to second base and, after forcing Shane Victorino at second, the relay throw failed to get Utley on time at first base. He was called out anyway. Even Steven?

Mariano Rivera pitched the 8th and 9th innings and looked mortal, surrendering a walk to Jimmy Rollins and a single to Victorino in the previously discussed 8th inning, and a two out double to Raul Ibanez in the 9th. But... too little, too late.

There was really no beating A.J. Burnett tonight. "Good A.J." showed up. "Good A.J." is one of the best pitchers in baseball, even if he looks like some kind of Boo Radley / extra from the classic The Hills Have Eyes hybrid ghoul.

They still split in New York. They've got Cole Hamels, who's pitched well at home this season, on Saturday night.

Agh, disappointment.

Yanks take Game 2, take Pedro deep in 3-1 victory

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:33:57 -0000

Ahh, much better.

The Yankees beat the Phillies in a much-needed, if technically not "must-win" Game 2, with A.J. Burnett outdueling old friend Pedro Martinez.

The Phillies took an early 1-0 lead in the 2nd with an RBI single from Matt Stairs, but the Yanks answered in the 4th with a solo shot from Mark Teixeira. Two innings later, Hideki Matsui went yard to give the Yanks a 2-1 lead, and then they collectively abandoned the longball game in favor of the small ball one.

If we had lost that game, I would have undoubtedly been arrested, and they would have needed dental records to identify the first base ump's mangled body.

Something tells me this game is just a microcosm of how the rest of the series is going to go. Nip and tuck. Working the pitchers. No easy outs, no easy runs. I don't know if my heart can take it.

Admittedly, no one can say we teed off on the long-winded stepchild of the Yankees. He kept our bats frozen through 3 innings, save a single from Hideki. And I wouldn't dare publicly subscribe to this at the time, but the thought did cross my mind that if Pedro holds us scoreless and to one hit, I may have to walk into a pit of wild boars to take me out of my misery.

Fortunately, Tex saved me from this fate when he led off the bottom of the 4th with shot to right center. 'Bout time. I was like 8 minutes away from exploding into a "the Phillies have weighted the ball!" outburst. (Seriously, though. It felt like the whole bar had been possessed by Sterling, every shot looked like it was going to carry, inducing us all to jump to our feet in excitement only to see it caught no where near the warning track.)

With the score tied 1-1, everyone was breathing slightly easier. Slightly. A.J. continued to deal, and unlike his usual Good A.J. persona, he wasn't even throwing the occasional wildness. Over 7 unbelievably solid innings, he used 108 pitches to let up just 4 hits, walk 2, and strike out 9. NINE. Thank you a thousand times over, A.J.

The offense did little to help him out, though it never seemed as through Pedro was baffling them, per se. If anything, they might have been a little overeager to knock him around and hence were getting whiffed on giant cuts.

In the bottom of the 7th, the Yanks added another run to their lead, and it really should have been a couple more runs, but a horrendous call ended the inning. With runners on 1st and 2nd, Jorge Posada singled to score Brett Gardner (although his ribbie was regrettably not off Pedro, but I'll take it.)

Jeter made the first out of the inning when he did what every hot batter does with 2 strikes, runners on, in a playoff game where you only lead by 2: bunted. Naturally. Johnny Damon came up and hit a line drive to first which Ryan Howard sells as a catch despite its definite hop, umps buy it, Posada out at 2nd, Damon out with the catch.

Technically, it should have been a 4-1 game, with runners on 1st and 2nd and still 1 out, since Howard never even stepped on first. Eh, it's moot.

Mariano Rivera comes in for 6 outs and throws wayyy too many pitches en route to his 38th postseason save (39). Things started to get a little too close for comfort when he put on Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins, with Chase Utley to deal with on only 1 out. Superman induces a double play, inning over.

The 9th went on without much of a hitch beyond Raul Ibanez's double. Mo struck out Matt Stairs to end the game. (Btw, I never noticed how much of a fat middle-aged Guiness-drinking, Mets-rooting blob Stairs looks like--that's the type of guy who bats cleanup in his bar softball league, not for a pro one.)

The series is tied at 1 game apiece, with a "travel" day tomorrow, then 3 games in Philly commence on Halloween. Great win tonight, Yanks. And special nod of gratitude for Jose Molina (yup, first time that sentiment has ever been uttered ever), for picking off Jason Werth in the 3rd. Maybe that was the weird kick in the pants the boys needed to start it up.

It's still our series. Here's to taking Philly by the jugular this weekend.

And what better time for bloodshed then October 31?

-CYC

World Series Game 2: What I want to see tonight

Ed Valentine — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:49:48 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

New York Yankees center fielder Brett Gardner.

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What I want to see tonight starts with the New York Yankees knocking Pedro Martinez all over Yankee Stadium the way he knocked Don Zimmer around a few years back.

That's not really what I'm here to talk about right now, though. There are a couple of things I want to see from Manager Joe Girardi tonight, and I am not at all sure he will do either one.

I want to see Brett Gardner in center field, with Melky Cabrera in right and Nick Swisher playing cheerleader from the bench. I know what kind of weapon Girardi feels Gardner is off the bench, but the guy is way more than a pinch-runner. He's a terrific center fielder, a respectable hitter (.270 regular season, .345 OBP) and Girardi needs to remember he can help the Yankees in ways other than stealing second base. Swisher is still slumping, at .114 for the post-season. C'mon, Joe, give Gardner a chance before it's too late to matter.
I want to see Jorge Posada catching A.J. Burnett tonight. I could care less about all those numbers some of you will point to showing A.J. likes pitching to Jose Molina more than Posada. The Yankees are down 1-0 in this series. Lose tonight, and you can pretty much forget finding time to go to a parade in the Canyon of Heroes next week. There probably won't be one. The Yankees need their best lineup on the field tonight, and that means Posada instead of Molina. Posada is the Yankees No. 1 catcher, owner of four World Series rings and a borderline Hall of Famer (that's for a whole different discussion). Jose Molina is, well, Jose Molina -- the worst of the catching Molina brothers. In the most important game of the Yankee season to date, Posada MUST be in the lineup.
One final thing. I want to see Girardi with a quick, I mean very quick, hook for Burnett tonight. Lord knows what will happpen once Manic Joe gets into that bullpen -- we might run out of pitchers by the sixth inning -- but I don't want him to hesitate. As soon as 'bad A.J.' makes an appearance I want him outta there.

World Series Batting Order Optimizer: New York Yankees

devil_fingers — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:37:07 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Jeter: I'm hitting WHERE at a baseball game? Girardi: (stares silently at a baseball game) A-Rod: (smugly) We're playing this late in the year at a baseball game WHY? I'm going to have to hook up with a second-rate actress who likes hanging out in a warmer place.

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So there's a big game tonight. CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee are facing off in a matchup destined to stab Cleveland fans in the fork with an eye for ages to come. And it's also a chance for me to write about something that, while I it doesn' t matter all that much -- 5 to 15 runs over a full season, so almost irrelevant in a 7 game series -- I obsess over constantly: batting order.

During the season, I had an occasional series called the Lousy Lineup Optimizer. Obviously, the two teams in the World Series have not-so-lousy lineups, and it was a fun chance to mess around with some batting orders full of great hitters. I'd meant to start yesterday, but these things take a while to put together to account for platoon splits, etc. I'll hopefully post on the Phillies tomorrow. Indeed, I'd wanted to do this for all the playoff teams, but 1) it was going to take too much time -- series would be over before I got all the teams posted; and 2) if there's anything we've learned from reading MGL's posts on the Book Blog, it's that you can't just use current season stats to judge a player's ability -- you need something like a projection. Earlier, I was using the ZiPS Rest of Season stats, but the season is over. My pseudo-Marcels spreadsheet was frustrating me. But then Acta Sports made the 2010 BIll James projections to be published in the 2010 Bill James Handbook (now available for pre-order!) available to SB Nation writers. I figure next season isn't that far off. I'm no posting these as "my" projections, but just using them to get an idea of the relative abiltiies of the players of each team for putting together a batting order.

Again, batting order doesn't matter all that much, but you'd think that teams in the World Series would want to maximize their chances any way they can. It's also interesting because they'll need for put together batting orders both with and without a DH. Let's see what the Yankees should do.

Lineup Optimization by The Book

If you've been following the Lousy Lineup Optimization series, you know what all this nonsense is about, so feel free to skim or skip all the way down the the batting order tables in the "Getting to the Point" section. If you aren't somewhat familiar with The Book's ideas on lineup optimization, it's at least worth skimming this section. The general principles are largely drawn from The Book, which is worth checking out on this and many other topics. Sky Kalkman gives a good, brief rundown in this article. While there is already good stuff out there, I like to do this kind of stuff for myself

Here are a few of the guidelines (with my own twists).

"It's all relative." Although this isn't directly stated in The Book or in any of the summaries I've seen, I think it's worth noting: the appropriate spot in the batting order for any particular player is relative. People talk about having a "true leadoff man" or a "#4 hitter" or that a player has a swing that's just perfect for hitting #2 or whatever. But the truth is, a player's "best" place in a lineup depends on his skills relative to the other players.
Where should the best hitter hit? The best five hitters (by wOBA or equivalent stat (e.g., not OPS) should be in the top five spots. Of those 5, generally, the best hitters will be in the #1, #2, and #4 spots. Ideally, of these three the hitter in the #1 spot will have the best OBP, the #4 hitter will have the most power, and the #2 hitter will be somewhere in between (relative to the #1 and #4 hitters). The best hitter will probably be in the #2 or #4 spot. The fourth and fifth best hitters will be in the #5 and #3 spots, respectively. Yes, you read that right: the #3 hitter's only advantage in run expectancy over #5 is in home runs. Of the top five spots, this is where you want your low-OBP slugger. As we'll see, platoon issues can make getting the best into the ## 1,2 and 4 slots tough, but getting them into the top 5 is pretty close.
The other half: In slots ##6-9, simply go in descending order of hitter quality, keeping in mind:
Platoon issues: Separating lefties takes a certain precedence, since this prevents the opposing team from leveraging LHPs against your lefties, who generally have bigger platoon splits. Moreover, given platoon splits (more on how these are generated in the next section), different batting orders against RHP and LHP are in order (har har). This also means that if your best hitters are lefties, they may not get into the "ideal" spots next to each other.
Can pinch hitting help? Note that in the chapter on platoons, the authors of The Book show that pinch hitting to gain the platoon advantage really doesn't solve this and other problems since the penalty pinch hitters suffer from the difficulty of hitting off of the bench offsets the platoon advantage they might gain.
Speed on the bases: Baserunning and basestealing are important, but are difficult to place, since often (but not always) the same players are good at both. In general, you want good baserunners (aside from stealing -- those good at taking the extra base, scoring from first on a double, etc.) in front of good contact hitters who can "move them over." Basestealers are best leveraged in front of poor hitters who have trouble moving them over. In both cases, if possible, avoid putting these players in front of high-power hitters, since this negates the advantage of those skills. So while your good baserunner might best be utilized at the top of the order (e.g., in front of a #2 hitter with moderate power), your best basestealer will likely be best utilized in further down the order in front of poor hitters -- say, in the #5 or #6 spot.
The Jim Rice Effect. Some spots have a greater odds of facing double play situations. The spot that sees the most DP situations is #3 by far, followed by #2. Therefore, try to avoid having high GDP players in those spots. The spot that sees the least (particularly in the NL) is the leadoff spot. So some times if you have an excellent hitter who also hits into a good number of DPs, even if he is slow, it might be worth it to move him into the leadoff spot.
Movin' on up: The "second leadoff hitter" theory has some validity -- having a #9 hitter who can "set the table" for the top of the order does increase run expectancy, so putting the worst hitter 8th sometimes helps. However, this worst hitter has to be really, really horrible in order for the advantage to obtain. In other words, in National League parks, hitting the pitcher 8th is the smart move according to The Book, although it is worth noting that Tom Tango wrote the chapter on lineups, and Mitchel Litchman (aka "MGL") is more circumspect regarding the value of the pitcher hitting 8th.
Remember that who is in the lineup is much more important that what order it goes in. So relax -- despite my nitpicking over two points of wOBA here and there, it really doesn' t matter that much. But it sure is fun to quibble...

Projected Stats, Sources, and Ground Rules for this Series

Who gets in? Again ultimately, who is in the lineup is more important than what order they go in. Having said that, in this occasional series my focus is opposite issue -- the order. So I'm generally going to accept whatever group of players the manager is throwing out there, whether I think it is the right group or not. I won't always get this right, since lineups change day-to-day depending on how players are feelings, how much acid reflux the manager had the night before, etc.
Where are those numbers coming from?, the basics: As I said above, I'm using the 2010 projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook for wOBA/AVG/OBP/SLG and SB/CS (prorated for ~150 games). The other numbers are explained elsewhere.
Who is the better hitter? From these stats, I will generate a wOBA (if it isn't done already, such as at FanGraphs) for each player. wOBA (weighted on-base average), for those who don't know, is the total offensive value stat that has taken the baseball internet by storm. Introduced by the authors of The Book and invented by Tom Tango, wOBA takes care of all the problems OPS had in terms of the weighting of OBP and SLG, doubles and home runs. It's roughly on an OBP scale, so something between .330-.340 is about average. For the version used at FanGraphs, .330 was about the MLB nonpitcher average in 2008. You can read more around the 'net, but in short: if one player has a better wOBA than another, he's a more productive hitter, period. wOBA for players can be found at FanGraphs and Stat Corner, for now, and probably more places as time moves on...
What about platoon splits? As The Book also explains (I'm telling you, you really should read it!), while each player has his own platoon split, it takes a lot longer than you would think to establish it -- it takes about 2,000 PAs against LHP for right-handed hitters to be able to say with some degree of confidence what their platoon split is -- so that's means only guys in the league a long time. For left-handed hitters, since there is more variability, it doesn't take as long -- about 1,000 PAs. Still, only veterans really get that far. Until then, most players should be assumed to have the league average platoon split. So, following the procedure used in by the authors for earlier years, I took the average wOBA and OBP splits for the 2005-2008 AL (it was easier to exclude pitchers that way) and applied them to each player. The only stats I will be adjusting this for are wOBA and OBP. BA, SLG, ISO are the generic ones, just to get a sense of the "kind" of hitter a guy is, obviously, those will change, too. but are harder to adjust for generically. In the "vs. RHP" and "vs. LHP" lineups, the wOBA and OBP figures are adjusted for league-average splits, and are thus italicized. [For more on estimating platoon skills, read this.]
What about Stolen Bases? I took the linear weights SB/CS runs projected by ZiPS before the season and prorated for ~600 PAs.
And baserunning? A bit more complicated... In the previous installments, I used Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR stats minus the stolen basees component. But I realized that what we're really looking here is just the runners ability to advance on hits, so starting with the Giants, I'm just using the EqHAR component. I did a primitive Marcels-type projection with them, without age adjustments, but with regression incorporating the Speed Score listed in the CHONE projections. Just to get a feel for the relative abilty of the baserunners, I projected runs values above/below average per 50 advancement opportunities. The listed numbers are projected baserunning runs above/below average per 600 PAs.
How about grounding into double plays? In short, the new Baseball Reference came out with information on GiDPs, opps, league averages and stuff. So I was able to do another pseudo-Marcel. The number listed is the GiDP runs above (avoided) or below (grounded into ) average per 600 PAs, normalized for the average number of opportunities seen over 600 PAs from 2005-2008.

Getting to the Point

Below are the raw, un-platooned stats from the 2010 Bill James projections for the Yankees with some other stuff. This isn't an any particular order. If it was up to me, Brett Gardner would start in center over Melky, but whatever. Remember, these aren't my projections, I'm just using them for convenience. Get mad at Bill James if you think this is unfair to Damon or whatever.

Player	Pos.		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.305	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.359	.309	.347	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.365	.317	.388	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.403	.294	.400	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.347	.278	.355	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.367	.282	.367	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0

So here we go... I'll start would with the "vs. LHP" lineups since the series is starting with the Yankees going against Cliff Lee.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. LHP w/ DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.383	.317	.409	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.395	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.348	.282	.349	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.422	.294	.421	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.340	.309	.330	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.329	.278	.338	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: It's pretty hard to put a bad batting order together with the Yankees. The main problem here was that in my "ideal" order, I had a bunch of lefties back-to-back at the bottom. Swisher really works well in the #3 spot, given his relative expected wOBA, his ability to avoid the DP, and home run frequency. However, then you end up with all lefties stacked up at the bottom of the order. To accomodate all that, I switched Matsui (surprisingly good at avoiding the DP last I updated) into the #3 spot. Most of my adjustments were made with these sorts of considerations -- with a powerful lineup like this, you don't worry to much about leveraging basestealers. Jeter leading off makes sense not only because he's a good hitter and baserunner, but beacause it also puts him in a position to see the fewest DP opportunities. Mark Teixeira hitting #2 might seem strange, but that's just because we're used to seeing sub-par hitters in that spot. He or A-Rod could switch, as A-Rod's baserunning might make sense in front of a contact hitter like Matsui. On the other hand, Teixeira is better at avoiding the DP, and the #2 spot sees them a bit more often. Also, the #4 spot leads off more innings. Damon at the bottom? Talk to Bill James. The Yanks can't use a DH every game, though, so...

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. LHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.383	.317	.409	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.395	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.422	.294	.421	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.340	.309	.330	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Pitcher	P
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.329	.278	.338	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comment: Very similar to above, with Matsui switched out, and Swisher getting into the #3 spot. This is really a "perfect: sort of lineup (you can put the pitcher #8 or #9 depending on how you feel about that issue) -- the top 5 hitters are in the top five spots, the worst DP guy is a good hitter who can lead off. You have the best three hitters 1,2, and 4, the 4th best hitter #5, and the 5th best #3, and the 5th best has a lot of home run power to maximize his more frequent 2 out opportunities. Tons of power in the middle of this lineup, as ##2-4 all have expected (before platoon!) ISOs over .200.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. RHP, w/ DH
Player	Pos		*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.369	.309	.355	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.397	.294	.393	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.377	.282	.376	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.405	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.359	.317	.381	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.356	.278	.364	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: Now this is a revisionary lineup! I personally find the "boy Derek Jeter is overrated I hate him so much A-Rod is so much better!" thing to be tired, even if certain sitcom writers still think it's clever. I guess my feeling at this point is "Duh." But this is just what the projections, platoon, and batting order principles spit out. Cano is a good hitter vs. RHP who also has GDP problems. I don't worry too much about his hitting with runners in scoring position (even if Steven Goldman seemingly can't stop mentioning it for some strange reason), but if you do worry about that, then hitting him #1 also takes care of that issue. Again, A-Rod and Teixeria could switch. I figured that Teixeira would have more power vs. RHP than A-Rod, so I put it this way, perhaps A-Rod's baserunning will be more useful in front of Matsui. It's a testament to the strength of the lineup that not only is Jeter hitting #7, but even against RHP, I have Damon hitting #8. And it works out, since Jeter and Damon's baserunning abilities are better leveraged in front of guys with less power like Melky and Cano than in front of power hitters like A-Rod, Tex, and Swisher.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. RHP, no DH
Player	Pos		*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.369	.309	.355	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.397	.294	.393	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.405	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.359	.317	.381	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.356	.278	.364	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Pitcher	P
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: Once again, Matsui's absence allow Swisher's home run power to get into the #3 spot where it belongs. Other than that, not much of a difference here. I should mention than in all four batting orders, I strongly considered putting A-Rod first because the best hitter could be in #1, #2, or #4, he's a good baserunner, and he also has a bit of a GDP issue (although it's not like Jeter's).

So that's it! What are the odds Joe Girardi does something like this? Greater than the odds of Kate Hudson making a movie that isn't a crappy romantic comedy? Greater than the odds of Ken Tremendous not bitching about a bunt? I dunno. I do know that I like talking about this stuff even if (wait for it) ... it doesn't matter all that much. Tell me what I did wrong!