SB Nation - Brian Bogusevic

Astros Winter Meeting Links

davoag — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:58:31 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I can save how much on car insurance?

It's looking like the first part of my theory on the Astros bullpen plans are coming to fruition. Jose Valverde can't find a deal, so his best option is accepting arbitration with the Astros. That probably means his salary will fall somewhere around 9 million. Ken Rosenthal is reporting the possible salary number at 10 million, but from looking at the market, that seems high to me. At the same time, Valverde's salary was 8 million last season, so you can guess where it will end up through this negotiation.

Two points to remember: First, Valverde has until midnight Monday to decide whether to accept arbitration. Certainly, his agent has an idea how the market will shape up to this point. The fact that both Billy Wagner AND Takashi Saito both signed before rumors of Valverde have hit the market. Second, even if Valverde accepts arbitration, it doesn't mean he's locked into an arbiter deciding his 2010 salary. Check out AstroAndy's excellent rundown of the process for a refresher.

I say the first part of my theory looks sound but the second part, bringing Hawkins back, looks less likely. Maybe the Astros could have struck quickly and signed Hawkins to a modest deal a couple of weeks ago. Now, the market seems to be heating up for the soon-to-be 37-year old with the Rockies being the latest team to express interest.

Honestly, I'm less afraid of Valverde returning on a one-year deal than of the Astros working out a multi-year deal for him. Sure, it's probably not the best use of resources to lock up a closer for big money with a limited budget. But, what else were they going to spend money on? Ed Wade has made it clear he's not spending on a starter, that third base is pretty set and that he's happy entering the season with Towles, Q and possibly Castro in the catching mix. Bringing back Valverde will not only give the Astros a more solid bullpen, they won't be able to get a player of his talent on a contract that short. This is better news than it seems.

On to more of the weekend's best links:

This news is either depressing or somewhat hopeful, depending on how you look at it. Mier appears to be one of the steals of the 2009 draft. Lyles and Castro are both ahead of schedule. No winning records since 2007, though? Is it really important for minor league affiliates to win games? If the system can churn out one to two prospects a season, isn't that what matters most?
My analytical toolbox has been duly updated. Thanks, Dave Cameron.
Recent injuries have sidelined both Wesley Wright and Brian Bogusevic. Both might have an impact on the 25-man roster next season, so maybe it's time to shut them down until February.
Here's Brian McTaggart's take on the Winter Meetings. Not surprising that the Astros won't be movers and shakers. Richard Justice thinks the Astros woes lately are all because of Baylor. Personally, I'd blame that replay official up in Dallas. That game was clearly over. He owes us a TCU-Alabama national championship.
Worried about Roy Oswalt? Apparently, we shouldn't be. His best buddy, JJO, says he's rested and ready to go. He also is happy with his new pitching coach.
It's a bit of a stretch to think Bryce Harper may fall to No. 8, but man, can this kid play? This is one of the coolest videos I've seen in a while. As athletic as he sounds, maybe he switches to third base? A man can dream, can't he?
More distressing news from the NCAA about the draft process. I know there are some who would like to see an international draft, but honestly, do we need to give more power to organizations like this? After the NCAA settled with Andy Oliver, it seemed clear its intent was to move back to the status quo and that's exactly what they are doing.
A very illuminating profile on Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. All those GMs saying he's the third- or fourth-best pitcher on the free agent market? They probably thought Kyle Farnsworth was also one of the best. I don't know what it is about a lefty with a fastball that makes scouts lose their minds. Doesn't his utter lack of control worry them just as much?
Boy, this Rangers sale is going to be fun to watch. Plus, there is the added intrigue on whether Nolan is sticking around with the team. Obviously, this worries me more than anything else about that debacle, since I like the idea of Round Rock being the Triple-A affiliate. If they leave, would the Astros bring back the Beaumont Golden Gators?

Plan? Schman: What is the Astros front office thinking?

DyingQuail — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:02:20 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Just give us a sign, Ed.

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I just got finished reading this piece by Brian McTaggart. I read it; I read it again, and then I thought, "Sonofabitch." Why? Because I can't discern a single line of thought from McTaggart's interview that would indicate there's any kind of plan for the Astros. I don't need a blueprint, but at least some sort of trajectory, and if not a trajectory, at least an indication that our front office is in fact in touch with reality.

Why the fuss? Here are the selections:

The first task for the Astros is re-signing their own free agents, a list that includes impact players in shortstop Miguel Tejada, closer Jose Valverde and reliever LaTroy Hawkins. Houston likely doesn't have enough payroll flexibility to retain all three, and Tejada's future with the club would be at third base instead of shortstop.

Ok. So Wade is allegedly gunning for two of the three. My guess would a pairing of Tejada, plus a reliever and that spending would pretty much close off payroll for the 2010 season. $7.5 million in 2010 for Tejada is what I'm guessing we'll offer and I imagine that Hawkins will look for at least a $5 million deal coming off the season he just had (if you don't prod the raw numbers, he looks stellar).

So our main objective for 2010 is to bring back a SS to play 3B at age 35 or 34 (honestly, I'll never get Miggy's age right). And then sign a closer-esque reliever. After that, the goal, ostensibly, will be to plug the roster with in house pieces for the league minimum and hope that of Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Wesley Wright at least two can perform at or around league average for the course of the season.

But wait, we apparently also have a void our outfield. This one was news to me. Of our current corps of minor leaguers, I think the only "stenghth" we might have is in the outfield. Am I wrong?

Nevertheless, Ed Wade had this to say about our "situation" in the outfield:

"From the standpoint of position players with both Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad being free agents, our extra-outfield situation at this point is an issue," Wade said. "I'm not saying we wouldn't bring both guys back, but both are free agents, and we have to recognize we have a void now."

Really? A point at issue? The services of two veteran bench warmers who happened to play outfield at some point in their career is really worth a likely $2-3 million in their two contracts? Yordanny Ramirez, Reggie Abercrombie, Brian Bogusevic (just to name our AAA OFers, but not to slight the Gaston's and Locke's of the world) couldn't slot in their spots for less than $1 million? Interesting.

So from that point, I can't tell if Wade is conceding that he can only spend enough to sign one of the Valverde/Hakwins/Tejada trio because if he signs two of the three he can't afford to round out the bench, or not. But in all honesty, that has me worried.

Next up, something that's be eating at me for awhile, but Wade's quote brings it to the surface:

"If we can mix and match with Geoff over there and provide more offense, that's something we have to pay attention to," Wade said.

I get that Blum is allegedly an über-utility IF. But if Wade is really gunning for Tejada, why did he re-sign Geoff Blum so early? A piece like Blum seems best signed in January or February when someone like Blum hears things like "league-minimum" and "major league job" and jumps at the opportunity to sign after sweating it out all offseason.

There's also discussion of Wade looking to trade for a SP, but who does he trade? For whom? And why?

And it's at the point in the article that I started over, re-read and realized that Wade is literally just slapping duct-tape on this team and hoping it all holds. But with what purpose? I don't know. If Drayton's taking a hard line on the payroll because he doesn't want to lose money this year, why not just hold everyone we have in place? Offer arbitration to our FAs, and then whoever rejects it, take the picks and fill the slots with in house players at league minimum? If everyone rejects arbitration, we have a payroll of $80 million on opening day and we get finally see what are farm system actually has in it, and that seems more entertaining than the Ed Wade duct-tape ball that's being rolled right now. Hell, just throw some money at Hawkins and have someone we trust to close baseball games and still save Drayton a sizable chunk of change to invest in the 2010 draft.

Wade doesn't seem to be trying to make the roster better, he seems like he's trying to plug leaks on a sinking ship—but will still end up taking on water. And I have myself back to, what is the Astros objective for 2010 and beyond? Does anybody see it?

None of this is to say that I don't think the Astros can compete as assembled, or attempted to be assembled, in 2010, but my concern is that is there are plans for 2011, 2012, and beyond? Or is it going to just be duct-tape and prayers for the foreseeable future?

Hunter Pence and the Astros Outfield Defense

davoag — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:25:47 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Congrats to the second-best right fielder in the majors.

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Don't know if you noticed, but Hunter Pence was a close second to Ichiro in the third annual Fielding Bible Awards, which were announced Monday. It was a nice finish for Pence, who has worked hard to turn himself into a very capable right fielder. Since Michael Bourn also finished in the top five in center field, it gives the Astros two premier defenders patrolling the vast expanses at MMP.

Still, that leaves one very big hole in left. Here is a snapshot of the most interesting section of votes to me, the left fielders. Note that Carlos Lee got three votes from his mother, his agent and his horse. If you look at the top vote-getters, though, something very interesting stands out. The winner, Carl Crawford, spent the majority of his minor league games in center field. David DeJesus, Nyjer Morgan, Lance Nix, Juan Pierre and Chris Dickerson all played the majority of their games in center field. Why does this matter? Well, I'll tell you after the jump...

So, everyone knows Carlos Lee isn't the best fielder. He looks slow, sometimes takes bad angles and can look disinterested at times. However, it's interesting to note that Lee had his highest total of outfield assists since 2004 last season with nine. The problem with Lee isn't his instincts or his arm, it's his range.

There's a reason so many former center fielders topped the Fielding Bible list, and I would say it's the same reason why people decry Derek Jeter as a Gold Glove shortstop, even though he may make fewer errors than a Troy Tulowitzki. Center fielders just have more range than your average left fielder. They're (generally) faster and have experience taking better breaks on the ball. Ideally, they have a decent arm, but that's not really necessary. This all plays very well in left field, a position where teams are wont to dump guys who can't play at first. Is hitting really more important than outfield defense, though?

Way back in September, I saw a couple of posts from Joe Posnanski on his blog that got me thinking about this. This first one brought up the idea of team's thinking completely outside the box about things, like making the best defense possible, regardless of how they hit. Would the runs you save equal the runs you give up? This follow-up post talks about whether there SHOULD be a separate Gold Glove for left fielders. Is it an important enough position to reward the best fielder there, or is it a hotbed of guys who couldn't hack it somewhere else?

I saved both of these posts, because it immediately made me think of the Astros minor league teams. For instance, the Express would routinely trot out an outfield with one of the best fielders in the minors, Yordanny Ramirez, and two players who have been center fielders in the past (Brian Bogusevic and Reggie Abercrombie). The same went for Corpus, where Collin DeLome, Josh Flores and Mitch Einertson all shared the outfield together (before Flores got hurt again) and all had played center at times in the past. Add to that another talented outfield in Lancaster of J.B. Shuck, Jon Gaston and T.J. Steele who could all play center. That's nine athletic players the Astros can and did move around all three outfield spots this season. Is the organization's philosophy changing? I think it has under Ed Wade and Bobby Heck.

It seems that the Astros will have more than enough players to fill the hole once Lee departs for greener pastures (in however many years that will take). Will it make them better as a team? Certainly Brian Bogusevic isn't the hitter Lee is, but he has a little pop, some speed on the bases and has a great arm in the outfield. Same goes for Collin DeLome, who's maybe not as athletic as Bogey, but definitely has more home-run potential. Either of these guys could start next season and probably be an upgrade over the sure-and-steady bat of Lee.

Whether this philosophy will work is another story, but for now, it looks like the Astros could have a potentially Gold Glove-caliber outfield in a couple of years. Now, if we can just do something about that infield...

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Outfield

davoag — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 16:15:09 -0000

We take a break from the managerial search to look at the Astros' 2009 outfield. The three starters in Lee, Bourn and Pence combined to be the most productive portion of the offense in a number of ways. Each totaled over 600 plate appearances and two of the three hit 25 home runs. While the Astros offense has its problems, the outfield isn't one of them. A bigger problem, though, is on the horizon.

Right now, the biggest strength in Houston's farm system is in the outfield. Players like Collin DeLome, Koby Clemens, Jon Gaston and Jay Austin all play the outfield and could be ready to play in Houston by 2011. One question to consider: would you trade one or both of the corner outfielders for pitching depth this off-season, though it may weaken the team for a season or two? Hypothetical questions aside, let's get to the analysis after the jump...

Carlos Lee, LF

2009 Season Stats: 610 PA, .300/.343/.489, 35 doubles, 1 triple, 26 HR, 65 runs, 102 RBIs, 5 for 8 stolen bases, 51 strikeouts, 119 OPS+

WAR: 2.4

UZR: -6.1

VORP: 36.2

Notes: Lee has turned into the opposite of a fan favorite these days. His lack of hustle on the basepaths and his worsening defense in left field make him an easy target, but there are few hitters more consistent than Lee. Last season, Lee collected at least 25 hits in each month except April and had a batting average over .300 in three of the six months in the season. On the negative side, Lee hit just .262/.308/.446 in the 88 Astros' losses while hitting .345/.384/.540. Love him or hate him, as went Lee, so went the Astros offense in 2009. The 33-year old had the second-highest OPS+ for Houston and had a theoretically-low BABiP of .290. Of course, this is largely explained by his low strikeout total and is exactly on the nose of his career BABiP. The distressing part of it is that Lee's OPS+ was his lowest total since the 2005 season in Milwaukee, when he posted a 109 OPS+. Lee does have value, as he's a very good bat in the middle of the order. The only way his bat offsets his terrible other baseball skills is if he continues hitting like a Top 20 guy. Guys his age, with his body type tend to drop off a cliff pretty quickly with the aging curve. Let's hope Lee can put up at least one more decent season before his contract expires.

Michael Bourn, CF

2009 Season Stats: 678 PA, .285/.354/.384, 27 doubles, 12 triples, 3 HR, 97 runs, 35 RBIs, 61 of 73 stolen bases, 140 strikeouts, 97 OPS+

WAR: 4.2

UZR: 6.5

VORP: 32.6

Notes: The reason Bourn's season was an unparalleled success was this: in 2008, he posted an OPS+ of 57 and last season that went up to 97. 40 points in OPS+ is pretty amazing, but not totally surprising, since this was Bourn's age 26 season, which means he's entering his prime seasons. Still, his OPS was technically below league average and his number of doubles was a little low for someone as fast as Bourn. The other problem with Bourn is his strikeouts. Someone with his speed needs to have a better contact percentage than the 26-year old does. On the other hand, OPS+ is a misleading stat for someone with Bourn's skillset. Runs Created incorporates stolen base percentage, which is why Bourn finished third on the team in RC with 95, two behind Astros leader Carlos Lee. His 61 steals led the National League and his 12 triples tied him for second in the senior circuit with Stephen Drew. Add to that an excellent defensive season, by most metrics, and Bourn was immensely valuable.

Hunter Pence, RF

2009 Season Stats: 647 PA, .282/.346/.472, 26 doubles, 5 triples, 25 HR, 76 runs, 72 RBIs, 14 of 25 stolen bases, 109 strikeouts, 116 OPS+

WAR: 3.4

UZR: 6.0

VORP: 25.3

Notes: Pence put up a solid season. That's the best way to describe it. His OPS, his average, his stolen base numbers were all not overly compelling, nor were his 25 home runs. But, he was one of the more solid members of the lineup. You can pick nits with different parts of his game (he still doesn't walk a ton, he chases bad pitches, etc.), but for the most part he is who he is. Pence is a solid starter who will probably never become a superstar. He's not going to suddenly hit 40 home runs or post an OBP of .400. His batting average will probably not flirt with .350 and he most likely won't have 150 RBIs. He will show up, run hard and be a generally good player to have in your lineup. I personally could see Pence hitting in the two-hole and thriving there. With his speed, he'd be an asset, but he wouldn't get as many stolen base opportunities (which is a good thing). He'd also have a little pop to keep pitchers' honest. It's not a perfect thought, as his OBP would ideally need to be higher.

Jason Michaels, OF

2009 Season Stats: 152 PA, .237/.322/.430, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 17 runs, 16 RBIs, 1 for 3 stolen bases, 38 strikeouts, 99 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: -12.4

VORP: 2.2

Notes: I'll tell you the truth. I was shocked to see how high Michaels slugging percentage was. I just had this perception that his signing was an out and out waste, largely because he seemed to never get hits, either off the bench or when he was in the game. The funny thing is after you looked at his numbers, that's exactly what he should have done. 2009 saw Michaels set a career high for pinch hits in a season with 12 and his pinch hit leverage index was 1.41, .07 points higher than his career index. That means the Astros trusted him in big situations consistently and directly in line with how he was used in his career. If anything was out of the norm, it was his BABiP of .301 was 17 points lower than his career line. The fact Michaels recorded his fewest plate appearances since 2003 could also have played into his number decrease. His Isolated Power was 50 points higher than his career average, which means we probably shouldn't expect the same kind of power next season and I really think the Astros would be better served using someone like Brian Bogusevic as the fourth outfielder.

Brian Bogusevic, OF

2009 Triple-A Season Stats: 581 PA, .271/.342/.365, 25 doubles, 3 triples, 6 HR, 68 runs, 53 RBIs, 22 of 25 stolen bases, 118 strikeouts,

Notes: Speaking of Bogey, this was his first full season as an outfielder and he did admirably well. At Triple-A, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Bogusevic put up fine numbers, but wasn't impressive. The Astros projected him to hit for more power than he's shown (remind you of anyone else? *cough*Johnson*cough*). His strikeouts are concerning and he doesn't walk enough to be an everyday starter, but his speed and baserunning acumen makes him intriguing. Defensively, Bogusevic got to a bunch of balls, recording 283 put outs to lead all Round Rock outfielders. He also had seven outfield assists, second only to Yordany Ramirez. I tracked the defensive numbers a little more in-depth for the first two months of the season and Bogusevic didn't have the most impressive arm. He made some plays but didn't hold runners as well as he could have and looked like he profiled better as a center fielder. As I said above, it makes sense to bring him up as a part-time player and let him learn how to hit in the majors. He's got nothing left to learn at Round Rock.

Yordany Ramirez, OF

2009 Triple-A Season Stats: 477 PA, .256/.275/.381, 22 doubles, 1 triple, 11 HR, 41 runs, 47 RBIs, 14 of 22 stolen bases, 64 strikeouts

Notes: Statistically, I really dislike this guy. Traditionally, though, I can see why the Astros liked him enough to sign him two years ago. Ramirez is a great defensive player and flashes big potential on offense. The problem is that the 24-year old has never been able to sustain that level of play, often falling in really damaging slumps. He's inconsistent on his stolen base success rate and I suspect he has better speed than instincts at this point. Ramirez hit all over the lineup last season for Round Rock before finally settling into the 7-8 spots. That's largely because of a genetic disorder that makes him physically allergic to taking a base on balls. Seriously, in eight minor league seasons, spanning 639 games and 2,420 plate appearances, Ramirez has only walked 78 times. That includes the 11 walks he managed in 2009. At this point, I don't ever see him being any more than an emergency contingency plan at Triple-A in case everyone else on the team gets hurt.

Drew Locke, OF

2009 Double-A Season Stats: 558 PA, .338/.389/.531, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 20 HR, 81 runs, 109 RBIs, 2 of 4 stolen bases, 84 strikeouts

Notes: Locke got a lot of burn this season because of his excellent numbers. He had an OPS of .920 at Corpus Christi, hitting 20 home runs and driving in 109 runs. Of course, the most telling statistic that never gets mentioned is that Locke was 26 years old last season. At that age, he should have destroyed Double-A hitting, even if it was the first time he'd been at that level after spending four seasons in the Dodgers organization. I'm not saying Locke isn't a good prospect at this point. It's just that we should probably temper our expectations somewhat. He's going to be 27 next year in Round Rock and may not see Houston until 2011, but with the injury to Josh Flores and the suspension of Mitch Einertson, Locke may be the most advanced outfielder the Astros have in their system (outside of the two mentioned above).

Can the 2010 Astros be competitive?

DyingQuail — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

My opinion: 2010 hinges on this man's performance.

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I'll admit from the outset that this depressing for me to write for two reasons. One, of course, being that it's depressing that I can't find anything worth writing about the 2009 Astros and two being that I am left wondering how the 2010 Astros can do better than their 2009 version. This ominous thought has been lurking in the back of my mind since I did an interview with Fred Fauor a few weeks ago in which the topic of how the 2010 Astros should assemble themselves left me clawing for any semblance of hope (which is a sports fan's best friend in times like these).

The logical place to start this conversation is payroll. A team can't build something if it can't afford to buy the requisite building materials. Everytime I have tried to account for the dollars and cents of the core of the Astros roster for next year I've totaled $75 to $82 million. This roster includes (with best guess efforts for arbitration bonuses and salary escalation):

Lance Berkman
Carlos Lee
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Hunter Pence
Michael Bourn
Jeff Keppinger
Kazuo Matsui
Tommy Manzella
Miguel Tejada (anywhere from $6 million to $11 million. The latter would actually be his fair market value at 3B if he replicated 90% of his offensive production from this year, assuming a cost of $4.5 million per WAR)
LaTroy Hawkins (anywhere from $4.5 million to $7 million to be our closer)
Bud Norris
Felipe Paulino
Brian Moehler
Yorman Bazardo
Sammy Gervacio
Alberto Arias
Chris Sampson
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak or some a near equivalent LOOGY
Humerto Quintero
Jason Castro
JR Towles or Brian Bogusevic
Rounding out the roster with relief pitchers that will have an average price tag of $1.25 million

This would be a young Astros team compared to their previous few versions, so there is of course the ability to infer hope from it because the projections for many of these players has a wide range of variance. But is that the kind of hope that we as Astros fans—especially most of the regulars here, who all have a far more sharply objective view of baseball—want claim? Can we even claim that as hope? I guess the answers to that are personal and subject to one's own preferences.

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) for you, the readers, I get to work out my thought process in front of you. For those who just want to move past this discussion, I'll do this after the jump.

If we have learned anything from the 2009 version of the Astros it is this: A seemingly stacked offense is not a good way to build a baseball team. The fact of the matter is, and will continue to be, that the core of our line up has skill set that is high slugging percentage relative to on-base percentage. This, as we now are so painfully aware of, does not an offense make. There's just no consistency in such a skill set and that fact was exacerbated by poor managerial strategy by the man at the helm of the offense, Cecil Cooper.

Even if the Astros front office decides to spare us the indignity of having Cecil Cooper continue to pull all the levers of the 2010 Astros, offense will not be our strong suit. This leaves us to the lesson we all learned in 2005: If you've got pitchers who pitch well, the team will perform well. As of right now, the only starting pitcher I put on the list above who I have confidence in is Wandy Rodriguez. I hope that Roy Oswalt will pitch well on a consistent basis in 2010, but his continued climb into his thirties, combined with his worrisome back issues, don't fill me with the confidence that the Wizard once inspired.

Dratyon McLane has already announced that payroll in 2010 will be lower than payroll in 2009, and has cited attendance this year as the motivation for this reduction. If payroll is scaled down to match in the loss in attendance revenues this year, than would place the Astros at somewhere within a million or two dollars of $90 million. That doesn't leave a lot of dough to fill out the bench and bullpen, while also buying the services of another top-tier pitcher to complement Roy and Wandy.

That leaves the likely candidates as Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Brian Moehler. However, it's hard to say that all aren't question marks in my mind. I doubt that our starting rotation will include more than two of the above to start the season, as I am sure there will be some manner of reclamation project scooped up by Ed Wade this winter. I also doubt that this unnamed pitcher will be more than a giant question mark in my mind as well. How can I be so confident that whatever Ed Wade pulls off the scrap heap will be a question mark? Just take a look at the options.

Bud Norris has flashed brilliance this season, but Wandy Rodriguez had a long and torturous journey to consistently being brilliant, so it's hard for me to place too much hope in Bud. Were Bud Norris to speed up his learning curve and provide legitimate number three services, then the Astros would have a strong rotation. Not 2005 strong, but strong enough to inspire confidence, and dare I say it, hope. Were Bazardo, Moehler, Wright (who'll be auditioned as a starter this spring, allegedly), and whoever is Ed Wade's reclamation project, to be relegated to the four and five slots, then they're imperfections and questions marks wouldn't matter as much. 2009 has been dismal mainly because 3/5 of the time there's no reason to expect good things from the guy taking the mound. At times, when injury has felled Wandy and Roy, there's almost no reason to hope for anything other than an offensive explosion to mask the deficiency in pitching.

So I've talked myself to this point: Should Bud Norris be an effective starting pitcher next year, I think that the 2010 Astros can be competitive. Do I have hope? There's a glimmer of it. Am I being unduly pessimistic? I'll leave that for you to decide. Have I missed/glossed over something? Probably. Again, tell me where I went wrong.

Looking ahead to the Astros in 2010; The Cyclical Nature of Sports

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 11:00:25 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

These guys won't be on the team next season. I think. Maybe.

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RJ weighs in with a blog post telling us that the Astros don't have to be terrible in 2010. Let's point out a contradiction of his, right off the bat: in his last blog post, he noted that fans don't care about the Astros anymore. Friday though, he noted that:

People here care about this baseball team. They care deeply.

Ok, well nobody ever said Dickie was known for being consistent. Let's go on, shall we?

Astros fans will be OK with younger players as long as they see that the organization is committed to a larger picture. Besides that, whether the team is good or bad, there still aren't many better ways to spend a few hours than to sit inside Minute Maid Park and watch a baseball game.

Point to Mr. Justice. Indeed, a climate controlled environment, $8.50 beers, a downtown that is being improved upon seemingly by the week, and a city that loves sports. All factors that enable MMP to draw fans even when Humberto Quintero, Kaz Matsui, and Jason Michaels make up 1/3 of the Astros' lineup. Onward, I say!:

Also, don't go writing off Bud Norris, Tommy Manzella or Chris Johnson after just a month or even after a season. Remember how bad Michael Bourn was last year? Could you have ever imagined he would be the Astros MVP in 2009?

Damn you, Tricky Ricky! Making another point I can't readily disparage.

Weren't you a little embarrassed when the Astros made a big deal of Pudge Rodriguez becoming the all-time leader in games caught? Pudge meant nothing to most Astros fans. He got here when he was in decline, and at a time when the organization was sliding backwards.

....I don't know if embarrassed is the word I would use. Maybe it is.I'm so confused at this point. Agreeing with Justice this much is like a life long Republican nodding his head with a President Obama State of the Union address. It's just not right.

Install Tommy Manzella at short and Edwin Maysonet at second and come up with a plan to give Brian Bogusevic regular playing time in the outfield.

Chris Johnson? He should have every chance to win the third-base job. Same with Jason Castro behind the plate.

Echoing our own DQ? Stop it right now, Richard! He caps it all off with a push to sign pitching:

Among the free agents: Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, John Lackey, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Joel Pineiro, Kiko Calero, Fernando Rodney, Billy Wagner and Jamie Walker.

An interesting post, to be sure. Food for thought this weekend too.

This one is for you, 'ol Pete: the Seattle Pilots are having a player reunion this weekend, celebrating their one year of existence. The who?? Some may ask. They were Seattle's first major league franchise, playing the 1969 season before a used-car dealer from Milwaukee named Allan Selig spearheaded an effort to move Seattle's young franchise to his hometown. The Pilots would henceforth be known as the Milwaukee Brewers, so give thanks 'ol Pete, your town got a baseball team roughly forty years ago.

For those who don't know, my family is from Milwaukee (I was actually born there) and I have heard stories about the old Milwaukee Braves moving to Atlanta, and how the city was distraught after losing the team. My grandfather would watch games at County Stadium in the cold, and enjoyed every second of it. After his Braves left though, he never could embrace the Brewers fully. After much of our family moved to Texas in the early 1990s he saw the light and became an Astros' fan, following the club closer than he ever did the Brew Crew. To me, it was always funny how he bemoaned losing his Braves, but he's never mentioned how Milwaukee pried away the Pilots from Seattle. I think on a basic level, the team you grew up with is going to have that pull on your heartstrings for life. Right or wrong, good or bad, most fans have their allegiances and will until the day they die. Times change, teams do too, but those memories from your youth are eternal. Sports is beautiful sometimes, ya know? A lot of people in Seattle lost a team, but tons of little guys and gals in Milwaukee gained a sports following that has lasted a lifetime.

The worst part of the Pilots saga was that it would foreshadow the city of Seattle eventually losing their beloved Sonics, and almost losing the Mariners in the early 1990s, before Ken Griffey, Jr. and crew saved the day, Seattle has had a bumpy sports history despite fielding competitive teams in all three of the major US sports. Hell, the Seattle Sounders soccer club are wowing folks in Washington, and drawing big crowds to boot. You win some, you lose some. You lose a piece of your town, and gain a new piece. Such is life, such is sports.

Why are the Astros wasting September?

DyingQuail — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 12:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I'll already said I'd be willing to try this? What are you guys waiting for?

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September opened yesterday with the absolutely thrilling announcement that Doug Brocail would be joining the truly heart warming story of Aaron Boone. I don't want to take anything away from the truly miraculous return of Aaron Boone, but when the headline for roster-expansion is a guy coming back from open heart surgery, one has to wonder what the front office is thinking. With about 30 games left in 2009 the Astros have less than 1% odds of making the playoffs. Less than 1%. There's nothing to be gained from these games except previewing potential lineup cards for 2010.

I am aware that these kinds of roster expansion typically take place once the minor league season is in the books, but there's a catch for the 2009 Astros organization: Both Round Rock and Corpus Christi aren't playing for anything. There's literally nothing holding the Astros back from experimenting for an extra week to make more informed decisions in the offseason. The best part is, pretty much everything the Astros need to see is already on the 40-man roster.

How does Miguel Tejada fair at 3B? Does Geoff Blum really need regular playing time? Does it matter if he makes a bunch of ridiculous errors? The answer to both of these is no.
What does Tommy Manzella hit like at the big league level? Better yet, how does he look at SS? With Miggy over at 3B, it makes perfect sense to bring up his ostensible in house replacement, who is on the 40-man roster, and see how he fares. Sure his bat is important, but I'm really curious to see how his glove plays.
How do Brian Bogusevic and Yordany Ramirez look? Our current outfield trio aren't going anywhere, but with a relative (and I mean relative) surplus of seemingly capable outfielders why not see if we can get them a strong cup of coffee and sell high on one of them? Think Josh Anderson in 2007, only hope for more than Oscar Villareal.
What has another year of AAA done for JR Towles? Can we count him in for 2010? Or can we potentially shop him this offseason? A replication of 2007's cup of coffee could do wonders for his stock.
Who would be a better regular: Jeff Keppinger or Edwin Maysonet? My guess is Keppinger, but why not give them both a consistent run of starts. It's not like Kaz Matsui needs to play extra games, he's already fragile enough.
Could Yorman Bazardo be more useful as a Chris Sampson-type in the bullpen? It would save him some innings, and allow us to see get a better idea of his relative utility to us.
Finally, it'd be cool to see how this worked out for scrap heap types? I guess we're really out of scrap heap types, but maybe we could figure it out.

With Richard Justice already predicting someone's firing tomorrow today, what does this organization have to lose? Let's be bold.

Houston Astros Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

John Sickels — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 12:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Houston Astros' Bud Norris pitches in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in a baseball game, Sunday, Aug. 2, 2009 in St. Louis. Norris was starting his first game as a major league pitcher. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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Houston Astros Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published December 30, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. I'm not doing new grades or lists until I start working on the 2010 book.

1) Jason Castro, C, Grade B: Hitting .300/.365/.396 since being promoted to the Texas League. Controlling the strike zone well, glove will play, power development is still uncertain.

2) Brian Bogusevic, OF, Grade B: Hitting .273/.347/.369 with 19 steals in 22 attempts for Triple-A Round Rock. Speed and athleticism are impressive, power development is questionable.

3) Bud Norris, RHP, Grade B-: 2.63 ERA with 112/53 K/BB in 120 innings for Round Rock, is 3-2, 5.86 with a 27/15 K/BB in 28 major league innings, five starts. Still has control problems but has shown flashes of overcoming them.

4) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B-: 3.23 ERA with 155/38 K/BB in 134 innings for Class A Lexington, 123 hits. A very successful season and still just 18 years old.

5) Ross Seaton, RHP, Grade B-: 3.31 ERA With 83/36 K/BB in 131 innings for Lexington, 133 hits. Like Lyles, he's had a good year though his components are less impressive.

6) Felipe Paulino, RHP, Grade C+: 6.82 ERA with 56/22 K/BB in 63 major league innings, 87 hits. Has shown decent control but has been too hittable. Will get more chances.

7) Drew Sutton, 2B, Grade C+: Traded to Cincinnati, hit .262/.382/.453 in Triple-A, is hitting .163 in 24 major league games. I think he can be a good bench player with more adjustment time.

8) Chris Johnson, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .274/.313/.468 in 93 games for Round Rock, with 19 walks and 82 strikeouts in 340 at-bats. Some scouts still see him as a possible breakout guy but the numbers have never been super impressive.

9) Sam Gervacio, RHP, Grade C+: 4.82 ERA with 58/21 K/BB in 52 innings for Round Rock, 43 hits. Has looked good in brief major league action, can be a nice relief arm I think.

10) Chia-Jen-Lo, RHP, Grade C+: 3.00 ERA with 29/17 K/BB in 30 innings for Double-A Corpus Christi, 24 hits. Decent performance, needs better command, heading to the Arizona Fall League.

11) Collin DeLome, OF, Grade C: Hitting .259/.328/.475 with 15 steals in 22 attempts, 34 walks, 124 strikeouts for Round Rock. Has power and speed tools, but contact is a big problem.

12) Sergio Perez, RHP, Grade C: 4.52 ERA with 64/54 K/BB in 131 innings for Corpus Christi, 154 hits. K/IP and hit rate are very unattractive. I think he would be better in the pen.

13) Polin Trinidad, LHP, Grade C: 2.91 ERA with 53/10 K/BB in 83 innings in Double-A, 4.63 ERA with 40/19 K/BB in 68 innings in Triple-A. He throws strikes but doesn't dominate.

14) T.J. Steele, OF, Grade C: Hitting .345/.385/.562 in 50 games for Class A Lancaster, nine walks and 40 strikeouts in 194 at-bats. Plate discipline is unimpressive but he has some power.

15) J.B. Shuck, OF, Grade C: Hitting .317/.392/.414 with 18 steals in 26 attempts for Lancaster, 59 walks, 50 strikeouts in 514 at-bats. I love the walks/low strikeout combination, but we need to see if he can hit outside of this environment.

16) Jay Austin, OF, Grade C: Hitting .261/.317/.355 with 23 steals in 36 attempts for Lexington. Toolsy, fast, raw.

17) Federico Hernandez, C, Grade C: Hitting .233/.270/.339 for Lexington. Good defensive reputation, but not going to hit much.

18) Leandro Cespedes, RHP, Grade C: 4.86 ERA with 99/47 K/BB in 113 innings for Lancaster, 133 hits. OK numbers given context, but Double-A will be a challenge.

19) Phil Disher, 1B, Grade C: Hit .156/.264/.266 in 39 games for Lexington, on the disabled list since late May.

20) Tim Torres, SS, Grade C: I thought he could be a sleeper, but he got released. Signed with the Marlins, hitting .267/.348/.371 for Class A Jupiter. Too old at 25 to be hitting like that at this level.

The Astros entered the season with a very weak system, still feeling the fallout from poor drafts, but the more impressive 2008 draft is paying dividends. The '09 class took some high ceiling high school risks and we'll have to see how they pan out, but they got a winner by going against consensus with Lyles in '08. Ownership at least looks like they are willing to spend a bit of money again developing the system after being too penurious earlier in the decade..

The Value of Hunter Pence: Should the Astros consider trading him?

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 11:00:19 -0000

With the playoffs seemingly more and more like a fleeting memory for Astros' fans, the 2009 off-season is becoming more and more the topic of conversation around TCB. It's safe to say that this year's squad has played reasonably well considering the constraints (payroll, injury and lack of talent) that were omnipresent from day one of Spring Training.

A good number of questions have been answered in my mind as well. Could Michael Bourn prove himself to be a viable centefielder? Yes. He's done that and then some, in my estimation. What about Wandy Rodriguez? Is this the season he finally puts it all together? You bet he has. For the first time as a major leaguer, luck has been on Wandy's side, as evidenced by his high LOB% and his FIP, but still- he has pitched like a top 20 NL starter. Paired up with Roy, Wandy should be able to pitch at this level for another 3-4 seasons. Which is perfect, because then the reinforcements come in from the low minor leagues (knock on wood).

While those questions have been answered in the affirmative, there are unresolved questions as well. What about the bullpen, are any of these guys worth bringing back for 2010? Ed Wade did a good job of grouping together a reliever corps around the big salaries of Jose Valverde, LaTroy Hawkins and Doug Brocail. Pitchers like Chris Sampson, Alberto Arias and Jeff Fulchino have pitched well until recently, when the invisible ceiling of innings pitched seems to have affected them adversely. Wesley Wright is too versitile and young to give up on, so I would expect him to be given every opportunity to earn a spot in spring training next season. Tim Byrdak has not done his job as a LOOGY this season and is 34 years old. Bud Norris is a wildcard- will he remain a starter, or will the Astros shfit him to a late innings role as a reliever?

The other question I want to focus on is concerns Hunter Pence. It's getting to be that time in his career where the Astros need to decide whether or not to extend him, pay him more in salary arbitration or trade him. Pence plays a good right field, is a fan favorite and has improved his plate discipline at the detriment of his power numbers. While he's definitely above average, he is not a super star, and I doubt he has the potential to approach that status.

This isn't to say that Hunter doesn't have value. He does. It just depends on what kind of value you're talking about. With Wandy and others due a raise in 2010, Pence ranks in the bottom half of all RF in terms of wOBA. Again- his being ranked 17th may seem unimpressive, but to an offensively challenged team like the Astros, his value is greater than you may initially think. That fact, coupled with his relative youth and ability to improve further are factors the front office would weigh when deciding what to do with Mr. Pence in 2010 and beyond.

What would really interest me, is if the Astros would at least consider trading Hunter Pence for an infielder who can play in the middle or 3B. I don't know what kind of value teams place on RFs compared to infielders, but I would assume that outfielders are easier to come by. Defensively, those positions are harder to play than RF, which forces a team to concern themselves with more than just a player's bat.

Another factor that is important is the state of the Astros' minor leagues. Brian Bogusevic, Drew Locke, and Jonathan Gaston are three OFs who will all be in the mix I would imagine in the upcoming seasons to be contributors on the major league level. Those constraints I mentioned earlier- specifically age, and contracts will keep them all from playing significant time.

On the flip side, I could not find one infielder in AAA or AA that jumps off the page and screams "middle infielder of the future". Jiovanni Mier is finding early success in professional ball, and scouts like his makeup and potential. He would be a huge answer to our infield problem if he can continue on his current path. The Texas Rangers' Elvis Andrus is a big leaguer at age 20, and is someone that Mier has been compared to. I'm projected out a few seasons, and a lot can happen in the meantime, but I have faith in Bobby Heck.

While it's doubtful that Hunter Pence would be traded, I at least think it's an interesting option, and one that the Astros potentially would have the luxury to make if a few minor league OFs continue to produce.

Wednesday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 11:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Is Bud Norris our closer of the future?

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Digging around the Baseball America website, I found a question from an Astros' fan about Bud Norris possibly being groomed a relief pitcher, and whether or not that was where his greatest value laid. Columit Matthew Eddy's response:

This is absolutely the reason Norris continues to start for Round Rock, regardless of the future role the Astros have pegged for him. In addition to sharpening his slider against live competition, starting every five days gives Norris the advantage of working on finer details during off-day bullpen sessions, without facing pressure of game situations.

We've heard talk like this for a few seasons now, but I tend to respect Baseball America a little more than most sources. How does everyone feel about Mr. Norris being a closer/set up man? Does he have more value at the back end of a bullpen or as a third starter-type?

Minor League Splits does a nice job of grouping together top minor leaguers, and detailing their previous night's performances. As much as I would like to become more of a fan of our minor league clubs, I find myself cheering mostly for the players who are considered likely to become Astros at some point: Jason Castro, Bud Norris, Polin Trinidad, the Lexington rotation, etc. This is a great way to keep track of our guys and our rivals' youngsters as well. For instance, Brian Bogusevic hit a home run on Monday night, something I probably wouldn't have discovered until a week after the fact, if not for this site.

Mr. Trinidad gets some props from the folks at FanGraphs. His AA performance helped him gain some notoriety:

Houston's minor league system is far from bursting with prospects, so the emergence of Trinidad over the past two seasons is welcomed. The southpaw does not have electric stuff, but he throws strikes and has some deception in his delivery. He has a good pitcher's frame, especially now that he's added some muscle, and projects as a No. 4 starter or middle reliever.

If he does end up being a middle reliever, I'd be pretty dissapointed. Especially considering we already have Alberto Arias in the pen, and apparently Bud Norris is on the way. That seems like quite a bit of pitching talent being used an inning at a time.

We may not like Cecil Cooper the manager very much, but the guy could play. The Hardball Times sums him up pretty well:

Before he became the much-maligned manager of the Houston Astros, Cooper was one fine hitter.

Cesar Cedeno was also mentioned, in the article. He ranks as the 21st best centerfielder of all time using their metrics.

As for an NL Central tid-bit:

The Cubs offense has been bad. Like, Houston Astros bad. They're still in it though, and it would shock me if a team with nine All Stars in 2008 didn't have a really strong second half. Kosuke Fukudome appears to be their leadoff man, but why not try Milton Bradley at the top?