SB Nation - Omar Aguilar

Wednesday's Late and Brief Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:15:03 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Justin Duchscherer is a potential 2010 Brewer. That means I probably need to learn to spell his name...or assign him a clever nickname that catches on. Suggestions?

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while finding eternal life.

Thanks for bearing with me this week. The Mug will return to its normal format and schedule on Friday. In the meantime, here's the crash-course version of today's notes:

Adam McCalvy has two more names for you to consider as the Brewers head into hot stove season: Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Correia. Meanwhile, ESPN has a story about clinical depression that Duchscherer has battled in the past. I don't think the depression has anything to do with the fact that his name is impossible to spell.
Caitlin Moyer has a look at the offseason work of Brewer Grounds Crew leader Gary Vanden Berg, who recently finished putting Miller Park's field to bed for 2009.
Mike Cameron might be one of the best free agent position players on the market this offseason, but Bleed Cubbie Blue is comparing him to Marlon Byrd.
In the minors, Baseball America used Pitch F/x to gather average and max fastball speeds for pitchers that appeared in the Arizona Fall League. Zach Braddock, Mark Rogers, Josh Butler and Omar Aguilar all check in somewhere in the low-mid 90's.
In transactions: the Padres claimed starting pitcher Radhames Liz off waivers from the Orioles.
The White Sox signed Andruw Jones to a one year deal.
Shelley Duncan elected for free agency after the Yankees outrighted him off their 40-man roster.
I'm still hoping the Brewers will sign Yorvit Torrealba, but the Blue Jays are also rumored to have interest.
Today's Faces feature over at Lookout Landing features another former Brewer: Ben Ford.
Yesterday I mentioned a few of them, but Royals Review has a look at the five dumbest NL MVP votes.
Speaking of awards: on this day in 1969, Lou Piniella won the AL Rookie of the Year. Piniella started the season as a Seattle Pilot, but was traded on April 1 for pitcher John Gelnar and OF Steve Whitaker. Gelnar posted a 3.78 ERA over three seasons as a Pilot and Brewer. Whitaker spent one season with the Piolts and was done in the majors by 1971.
On this day in 1981, Rollie Fingers became the first relief pitcher ever to win the AL MVP. Fingers picked up 15 of the 28 first place votes and edged out Rickey Henderson by 11 points.
I wasn't able to find a Brewer birthday today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Tony Brewer, who turns 52.
Oh, and if you're looking for something to do tonight, Keith Law has updated his list of the top ten board games.

Drink up.

The Brewers' Rule 5 Draft Eligible Players

TheJay — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:15:08 -0000

As noted in my FanPost of Sunday night, the deadline for filing major league and minor league reserve lists is fast approaching. Eligible players not added to the major league 40-man roster by November 20 can be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

What does it take to be eligible?

If 19 or older on the June 5th before he signed his first contract, a player is eligible for the fourth Rule 5 draft after signing (usually after four years in the minors).
If 18 or younger on the June 5th before he signed his first contract, a player is eligible for the fifth Rule 5 draft after signing (usually after five years in the minors).
Any player who is eligible for one Rule 5 draft is eligible for all subsequent Rule 5 drafts.

(see ESPN Transactions Primer , Baseball America Rule 5 Draft column, MLB Rules summaries)

You may recall some Brewers being added to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Omar Aguilar, Alexandre Periard, Mark Rogers, and Cody Scarpetta were the fantastic four. At the risk of undermining the above statements, Scarpetta actually became eligible for the draft through a little-known technicality: the Brewers voided his original contract because of an injury and later re-signed him, making him immediately eligible (link). That comes up probably once in a February blue moon.

I have attempted to make a comprehensive list of Brewers farmhands who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Obviously not all (or even most) of these players are realistic candidates to be selected. In addition, some of these guys may be minor league free agents. If you think I've made a mistake or missed someone, post a comment. Notable names are above the jump while you must click and scroll for the rest. Ages listed are for the 2010 season and levels listed are where the player spent the bulk of 2009:

Zach Braddock (22, LHP, A+/AA - one of the last draft-and-follow players, he did not sign until the spring of 2006 at the age of 18. This gives him one more year before becoming eligible.)
Lorenzo Cain (24, CF, AA)
Chris Cody (26, LHP, AA/AAA)
Nick Green (25, RHP, AA/AAA)
Taylor Green (23, 3B, AA - another draft-and-follow guy, brewerfan has him signing June 1, 2006. Since he did not turn 19 until November 2005, I think that puts him in the 18 and younger category and means he is not eligible until next offseason. Lorenzo Cain was in a similar situation last year.)
Dave Johnson (27, RHP, AAA)
Mike Jones (27, RHP, A+/AA/AAA - former #1 pick finally reached AAA, did not do well)
Brendan Katin (27, RF, AAA)
Mike Ramlow (24, LHP, Inj/A - yet another draft-and-follow, injured most of this season)
Amaury Rivas (24, RHP, A+)

The Brewers currently have 33 of 40 roster spots filled. I am not 100% sure of Green's exemption from the draft but the Brewers certainly have roster room if I'm wrong. We'll all find out together on Friday. Assuming Green does not need to be protected, I think only Lorenzo Cain and Amaury Rivas really need to be added to the roster. I don't think the other guys are tempting enough for any team to commit a 25-man roster spot in December. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the current talent and/or upside just aren't there.

As promised, the rest of the Rule 5 eligible farmhands.

Erick Almonte (32 in 2010, 1B, spent 2009 in AAA)
Patrick Arlis (29, C, AAA)
Mike Burns (31, RHP, AAA/MLB)
Chuck Caufield (26, LF/RF, AA)
Anderson de la Rosa (25, C, A+)
Ryan Delaughter (23, RHP, R - converted outfielder threw 5 innings in Arizona rookie ball.)
Chris Errecart (25, 1B, A+)
Jim Henderson (27, RHP, A/A+ - Canadian added veteran presence to low-minors bullpens.)
Robert Hinton (25, RHP, AA)
Mark Holliman (26, RHP, AA)
JR Hopf (27, C, AA)
Shane Justis (27, 2B, AA - was selected in minor league portion of last year's Rule 5 draft.)
Brandon Kintzler (25, RHP, AA - not sure how it works for these indy-league guys. Not sure it matters.)
Brock Kjeldgaard (24, 1B, A - converted pitcher known for power, strikeouts.)
Joe Koshansky (28, 1B, AAA)
Rafael Lluberes (25, LHP, A+)
Martin Maldonado (23, C, A+)
Michael McClendon (25, RHP, AA)
Sean McCraw (24, C, A)
Johnny Raburn (31, 2B/SS, AA/AAA)
Tike Redman (33, OF, AAA - former Pirate spent about as much time in Nashville as Jon Knott.)
Jose Romero (24, LHP, R - injury-marred career, presumably.)
Ivan Rusova (23, RHP, R - who? The Giants somehow drafted this Cuban in the in 26th round in 2005.)
Juan Sandoval (29, RHP, AA)
Adam Stern (30, OF, AA - O Canada!)
David Welch (27, LHP, AA - the lone representative from Australia.)

The following players would have been Rule 5 eligible but are already minor league free agents according to Brewerfan. A few names from the above list (i.e., Redman) probably belong down here, too:

Drew Anderson (29, LF, AA - he actually spent September 2006 in the majors.)
Chris Capuano (31, LHP, Inj/R)
Carlos Corporan (26, C, AAA - hitting only 1.000 in major league play.)
Ruben Flores (26, RHP, A - acquired for Bill Hall.)
Lindsay Gulin (33, LHP, AAA)
Ryan Houston (30, RHP, AAA)
Jon Knott (31, RF, AAA - spent about two weeks in a Nashville uniform.)
Wes Littleton (27, RHP, AA/AAA - best known for "saving" a 27-run game with the Rangers.)
Kevin Melillo (28, 1B/3B, AA)
Sam Narron (28, LHP, AAA)
Freddy Parejo (25, RF, AA)
Josh Wahpepah (25, RHP, AA)
Chase Wright (27, RHP, AAA - outrighted off 40-man roster on August 26.)

That's a lot of links about a bunch of guys no one will remember a few weeks from now. :)

Fall/Winter League Update for 11/3/2009

KLSnow — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:36:34 -0000

In Arizona: Lorenzo Cain went 0-for-4 with a walk and scored a run in the Javelinas' 6-4 win over Scottsdale. Zach Braddock pitched a perfect ninth with one strikeout to pick up his second save, and Omar Aguilar pitched the seventh, allowing a run on a hit and two walks.

In the Dominican Republic:

Erick Almonte went 3-for-4 with a run scored and a fielding error in Cibao's 6-4 win over Aguilas Sunday.
Juan Sandoval struck out two and pitched two perfect innings in Oriente's 7-5 loss to Este.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:14:34 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

As it turns out, Jason Kendall may not be all that valuable defensively either.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read with the hand-washing time you've saved.

Clearly, "calling a good game" is not weighted heavily in these rankings, but Driveline Mechanics ranked Jason Kendall 105th out of 114 catchers defensively in 2009, and Mike Rivera 28th. It's further proof that Kendall has outlived nearly all of his value...and somehow, I still expect Doug Melvin to find a reason to bring him back next season, and Ken Macha to play him 120 times.

Craig Counsell and Braden Looper's offseason surgeries were completed yesterday, and both were "routine," according to Dr. William Raasch, who is now off to shop for a new house with the money he's made off the Brewers this week (FanShot).

Here's some symmetry for you: Wisconsin Sports Tap has a list of the top ten Brewer moments from the 2009 season, and Miller Park Drunk has a list of ten things he won't miss about this season.

While glancing over Baseball Digest Daily's Asian MLB Awards, I noticed this completely unrelated tidbit: The Brewers, who scored the third most runs in the NL this season, got 14.3% of those runs from Ryan Braun. That's the fourth highest percentage in all of baseball.

In what might be an unprecedented event, the Brewers had two pitchers (Braden Looper and Manny Parra) among the top three in the "Good Luck Division" of The Hardball Times Awards' season finale. The two pitchers combined for 25 wins with a 5.70 ERA.

Speaking of awards, Jon Heyman left Prince Fielder off his NL MVP ballot. Moments like this are why it's so easy to blast the BBWAA.

The Arizona Fall League's Opening Day was yesterday, but it wasn't a great start for the Javelinas, who got pummeled by Surprise, 17-4. Lorenzo Cain led off with a double for Peoria in the first and scored the game's first run, but the Rafters responded with runs in the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh innings. Omar Aguilar also pitched in the game, and allowed three runs on four hits and a walk in 1.2 innings. Beyond the Box Score has the PitchF/X data on Aguilar's outing.

There's just one note for the transaction log today:

Padres: Infielder Luis Rodriguez and catcher Eliezer Alfonzo declined outright assignments to the minors and are now free agents.

Who knows if the Brewers might be interested, but one more name could be about to enter the starting pitching rumor mill: Ken Rosenthal is reporting Tim Hudson could decline his half of his mutual option with the Braves for next season. The option would pay Hudson $12 million in 2010, and it seems unlikely many teams will want to commit more than that to a guy who made just seven starts in 2009.

Every day it looks a little more likely that Ned Yost will be back in the big leagues next season. He's already being mentioned as a managerial candidate in Cleveland and Houston, and now you can add him to the list in Washington as well.

If a last place team in a terrible stadium switches over to a TV network much of their fan base doesn't get, do they make a sound? According to SportsBusiness Journal, only 20,000 households tuned in to watch an average A's game this season, the second lowest figure in all of baseball.

Some days I'm up perusing the internet before it's light, and I come back with lots of great baseball links. Some days, I just find lunch ideas. Such is the Way of the Mug.

Happy birthday today to Tommy Harper, who led the 1970 Brewers in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, walks, batting average, OBP and slugging, and turns 69 today.

That's all I've got for you today, but if you're looking for something else to do, you could consider Static Electricity Fun Time.

Drink up.

Arizona Fall League PITCHf/x - Day One

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:05:39 -0000

No, I won't do this everyday (maybe). Yes, I have a huge back-log of New Arms. More on that below...

Today was opening day in Arizona, as top prospects in the Arizona Fall League started their short season. Thanks to MLBAM, PITCHf/x will be running in Peoria and Surprise (home to 3 of the 6 teams in the league).

The Gameday IDs will be pretty good as things progress, as the MLBAM team is getting more information on the lesser known pitchers in the league. They already have weightings in the system for pitchers who have seen big league time and some from the higher minor leagues, according to Cory Schwartz, Director of Stats for MLBAM.

I quickly classified the pitches from today's game myself, without splitting two- and four-seam fastballs. I want more data from the pitchers, and the new installations, before I get too fancy. All that's after the jump...first, a teaser.

I've got the ALDS and NLDS all tidied up and classified. I'll share some of the numbers tomorrow night.The bigger effort is nearly done ... classifying all pitches thrown in 2009 by rookies. And position players. I've completed initial classifications for all 120-something of them, and I'm in the process of reviewing and revising. Or in the process of getting ready to review and revise. Dang AFL distracted me .... oh yeah, read on for the pitch classifications from today's action in Peoria.

Click the headers to sort.

pitcher	cfx	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Andrew Oliver	Change-up	2	85	5	9	150	1979
Andrew Oliver	Fastball	21	93	4	12	162	2595
Andrew Oliver	Slider	6	83	-5	5	228	1390
Brennan Garr	Fastball	11	91	-7	9	219	2323
Brennan Garr	Slider	3	81	-1	-2	311	385
Eric Krebs	Change-up	3	83	-11	4	251	2081
Eric Krebs	Fastball	17	92	-8	6	234	2125
Eric Krebs	Slider	8	83	-1	-2	251	459
Gary Daley	Change-up	5	84	-7	3	249	1501
Gary Daley	Curveball	1	80	1	-9	10	1561
Gary Daley	Cutter	1	93	0	5	179	981
Gary Daley	Fastball	10	92	-8	4	245	1832
Grant Duff	Change-up	1	83	-7	-1	275	1243
Grant Duff	Curveball	5	83	0	-3	206	765
Grant Duff	Fastball	12	94	-4	8	207	1832
Ian Kennedy	Change-up	6	83	-9	5	241	1871
Ian Kennedy	Curveball	9	78	2	-10	13	1759
Ian Kennedy	Cutter	1	92	-1	7	189	1487
Ian Kennedy	Fastball	29	91	-8	7	229	2057
Ian Kennedy	Slider	7	85	-1	2	230	430
Mike Parisi	Fastball	3	92	-8	5	238	2050
Mike Parisi	Slider	1	86	-2	4	204	923
Omar Aguilar	Change-up	5	81	-11	0	269	2096
Omar Aguilar	Fastball	30	91	-7	7	225	2177
Omar Aguilar	Slider	4	81	1	2	153	556
Robbie Weinhardt	Change-up	4	86	-12	2	260	2402
Robbie Weinhardt	Curveball	9	84	0	-4	166	879
Robbie Weinhardt	Fastball	27	92	-9	2	257	1921
Scot Drucker	Change-up	5	83	-9	3	252	1802
Scot Drucker	Curveball	2	77	3	-5	32	1055
Scot Drucker	Fastball	29	90	-9	7	232	2332
Scot Drucker	Slider	2	79	2	0	89	347
Sergio Santos	Change-up	6	86	-10	1	260	2052
Sergio Santos	Curveball	2	85	0	-8	180	1549
Sergio Santos	Fastball	15	96	-7	4	241	1766
Sergio Santos	Slider	1	86	-1	1	241	266
Zachary Kroenke	Change-up	6	78	4	6	141	1247
Zachary Kroenke	Fastball	16	91	6	9	145	2190
Zachary Kroenke	Slider	3	83	-1	6	194	1126

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 15:00:55 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Mike Cameron dives into third for a triple during the 12th inning Tuesday.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while not sleeping.

After staying up to catch the end of last night's game, I didn't get much sleep and for some reason all I can think of is breakfast. At least one Brewer blogger isn't having this problem, as Miller Park Drunk left the game early.

Felipe Lopez also left early last night, but the news might not be as bad as you'd think. Initial reports were that Lopez had aggravated a hamstring injury, but Adam McCalvy says he actually injured the arch of his foot rounding third base in the ninth inning last night. Lopez was checked out by a doctor but declined an X-ray and is expected to be reevaluated today.

One would think Lopez would want to do everything he can to get back in the lineup for the next couple of days: The Reds have announced Kip Wells as tonight's starter, and will start former Brewer Justin Lehr tomorrow. Lehr has made five starts for the Reds this season, his first major league appearances since posting an 8.62 ERA for the Brewers in 2006.

With last night's loss, the Brewers dropped to eleven games back of the Cardinals, their largest deficit of the season. Doug Melvin says he's not inclined to trade veterans at this point, but Ken Rosenthal is reporting that six Brewers were placed on trade waivers yesterday, including Felipe Lopez, Braden Looper and Mike Cameron.

What should the Brewers do with Prince Fielder? Dave Cameron of FanGraphs thinks the Brewers should trade him this offseason before he gets too expensive and patch some of the other holes in the roster. Meanwhile, David Pinto of Baseball Musings thinks the Brewers should offer Prince $20 million per season to buy out some of his free agent years. Either way, it's a tough spot for the Brewers: Fielder's incredible season means he could be worth significantly more than they can afford when he's eligible for arbitration again after next season, but it also makes him very difficult to trade, as few teams have and are willing to part with pieces that be worth fair market value for one of the NL's most productive hitters.

Jody Gerut went 0-for-1 last night, but is still hitting .345/.406/.552 since July 26, raising his season OPS by 51 points. Tony Gwynn, for whatever it's worth, is hitting .225/.317/.270 over the same time frame. Casa de Machado is willing to admit that Gerut might not be "complete trash."

Before the season it was almost an afterthought, but re-signing Craig Counsell might be one of the best moves Doug Melvin made this offseason. Sky Andrecheck of Baseball Analysts included Counsell as Best Team a Reasonable Amount of Money Can Buy.

Amidst everything else that's been going on the last few weeks, we haven't talked much about Corey Hart or Seth McClung, who are both getting closer to healthy. Hart hopes to head out on a rehab assignment next week, but the Brewers are taking things a little slower with Seth McClung's elbow. McClung has already had Tommy John surgery once.

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around this one: Jason Kendall has a six game hitting streak going, is hitting .340/.415/.457 since August 4 and is among the leaders in Plunk Everyone's new BACON and Beans statistic.

In the minors:

Mike Jones had one of the biggest nights of his career last night, rebounding from a rough debut by allowing just one earned run in 7.2 innings in Nashville's 4-1 win over Albuquerque. Jones allowed four hits and three walks while striking out seven, and threw 108 pitches while earning his first AAA victory.
The Brewers have added two outfielders to the roster in AAA, signing Tike Redman and Jon Knott.
Hernan Iribarren will join them in AAA sometime in the next few days. He was optioned to make room for Jeff Suppan.

If you've got nothing else going on this afternoon and want to spend more time discussing Brewer minor leaguers, then you might be interested in The Official Site's chat with Amateur Scouting Director Bruce Seid at 1 pm. I have a date with some yard work, so I'll be unable to attend.

Here's an interesting note from Lookout Landing: Carlos Villanueva and Mark DiFelice are among the unluckiest pitchers in baseball when it comes to getting strikes called on pitches in the zone, and the Brewers are the unluckiest team in baseball in the same category.

Following last night's loss, CoolStandings dropped the Brewers' playoff chances to .6%.

I usually do my best to avoid the restrooms at Miller Park, but if you must use them, Casa de Machado has a guide to etiquette that you should read first.

Around baseball:

Giants: Placed Freddy Sanchez on the DL with a shoulder strain.
Nationals: Signed Livan Hernandez and will start him today.
Rangers: Placed Andruw Jones on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Red Sox: Acquired Billy Wagner from the Mets for two PTBNL, one of which is rumored to be AAA slugger Chris Carter.
Reds: Signed Lew Ford to a minor league deal.
Rockies: Placed Dexter Fowler on the DL with swelling in his knee.

How much of being a good manager is simply perception? Rays manager Joe Maddon said this on Twitter yesterday:

On the road Ive asked guys 2 think about doing better by talking about playing better Has 2 begin w/ mental effort b4 it shows up physically

If Ned Yost had said something like that, we might have mocked it mercilessly. But when Joe Maddon said it, it somehow seems less nonsensical.

The Brewers officially named eight players to the Arizona Fall League yesterday, with Mark Rogers, Omar Aguilar, Zach Braddock, Josh Butler, Rob Wooten, Jonathan Lucroy, Taylor Green and Lorenzo Cain getting the call (FanShot). This year's AFL will have some significant star power as Stephen Strasburg will make his professional debut in the league, and will be joined by Mariners #1 pick Dustin Ackley, Giants pitcher Joe Martinez and catcher Buster Posey, Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata and Reds infielder Yonder Alonso, among others.

It's been at least a few days since the last time I had to mention an umpiring incident, but there's another one to report today: Several Rockies players complained that umpire Bill Miller called catcher Yorvit Torrealba a derogatory name in the late innings of a game Monday.

Ever wonder what it's like inside Bud Selig's office? Hal McCoy spent half an hour there yesterday and details much of the furniture, including a couch made entirely of baseball bats. (h/t Dear Ken Macha)

Do you enjoy Chuck Norris Facts? If so, you might be incredibly disappointed by these Ed Sprague Factoids, but you might enjoy these Rollie Fingers pictures.

On this day in 1987, Paul Molitor's 39-game hit streak came to an end as he was standing on deck when Rick Manning hit a walk-off single to beat the Indians 1-0 in ten innings. On this day in 1998, Phil Garner became the first Brewer manager to record 500 wins as the Brewers beat the Rockies 6-5.

Happy birthday today to Ricky Bottalico, who made 40 appearances as a Brewer in his final major league season in 2005, and turns 40 today. Alex Sanchez, first ballot "Don't Be That Guy" Hall of Famer, also turns 33.

Oh, and if you're a pro wrestling fan looking for a place to keep up to date on the latest news and rumors, SBNation has a blog for you.

Drink up.

Prospect Progress Report

battlekow — Thu, 28 May 2009 21:00:42 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Mat Gamel joins us in pondering his future. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Browse more photos »

After ranking the prospects in the offseason, it's time to check on their progress making the transition from Asatte Ultra Strike!!! to Ashita Mega Strike!!!

SS Alcides Escobar (22), AAA - Escobar started slowly but appears to be picking up steam; however, with a .379/.406/.500 line against lefties and just a .244/.299/.331 line against righties, there's still a lot of cause for concern. He also initially struggled with RHP last year before rebounding to post a .314/.341/.419 line against them, so perhaps he just needs an adjustment period at each level. Outside of the batter's box, Escobar has been running a lot, racking up 21 steals and only being caught 5 times. In the wake of Rickie Weeks' injury, he's also begun playing second base about 2/3 of the time, though Doug Melvin claims he's only an emergency option for the big club. We'll see about that, but he could definitely use some more seasoning with the bat.
MLE: .255/.291/.316

3B Mat Gamel (23), MLB - You've seen what he can do. Gamel hit .336/.428/.647 at AAA before getting the call and appears to have settled more or less into the starting third base job. His defense there will dictate his future. Gamel's shown increased selectivity at the plate this year, which is a great sign.
MLE: .295/.371/.533

RSP Jeremy Jeffress (21), A+ - Ah, our other J.J. Jeffress' control gremlins took over in his first extended trial at AA as he walked 33 in 27.1 innings, though he did strike out 34. Demoted to Brevard County, where he spent most of last year, Jeffress continued to struggle in his first appearance. It won't just be a quick tuneup and then back to AA for Jeffress; he'll be down there for awhile, as his control has regressed from poor to unworkable. Jeffress reportedly began throwing a two-seamer more frequently this year, leading to a large jump in his ground ball rate, though whether the new pitch has affected his command, I can't say. Despite all his travails, Jeffress is still just 21 and still has monster stuff, so don't get too frustrated. He's still the best pitching prospect in the system.
MLE: 31 IP, 8.68 FIP, 29/56 K/BB, 32 H, 4 HR, 58.2 GB%

C Angel Salome (23), AAA - Salome got off to a brutal start, hitting .191/.298/.234 in April, but has rebounded so far in May with a .291/.316/.436 line. It's easy to speculate that the back problems that hindered him in spring training lingered and affected his hitting early on, and recently he's also been dealing with a hand injury; once he's fully healthy, he'll most likely continue to hit like he always has. Like Gamel, Salome's defense was always the thing holding him back, and while I haven't heard any first-hand reports, his numbers have improved: only three passed balls and a 38% CS%, up from 26% last year.
MLE: .210/.254/.267

2B Brett Lawrie (19), A - Nobody seems sure where he'll end up playing, other than not at catcher, but ignore the reports of his defense at second base being laughably bad. If I had to guess, those still date from spring training, when Lawrie was just picking up the position; from all accounts, both team-affiliated and otherwise, he's been a quick learner, showing good range and a strong arm. If he's going to move anywhere, it might be to third base to take advantage of his strong arm, but it won't be because he's a disaster at second. As for the bat, it will play pretty much anywhere the Brewers choose to deploy Lawrie. He's hitting .277/.345/.493, a great start for a teenager getting his first taste of pro ball in the frigid Midwest League.
MLE: .194/.234/.303

Follow the jump for the rest of the list.

C Jonathan Lucroy (23), AA - Hot on Salome's heels entering the year as the potential Catcher of the Future, Lucroy has also struggled in '09. He hit .288/.368/.379 in April, but has cratered in May with a pitiful .185/.329/.262 line. Still, he's walked more than he's struck out (24/17), and Jeff's luck adjustment indicates that Lucroy is getting jobbed on balls in play and corrects his overall line from .237/.348/.321 to .291/.393/.382. The lack of power is still worrisome, but Lucroy wasn't considered the second-best hitting catcher in the 2007 draft (behind Matt Wieters) for nothing; his bat will come around. However, his defense, questionable when drafted but a surprisingly strong point last year, has slipped, at least going off the numbers: seven passed balls already and a CS% that has fallen from 45% to 29%.
MLE: .190/.278/.241

CF Lorenzo Cain (23), AA - Cain gets an incomplete, having only played in four games this year. He missed the beginning of the season due to a lingering hamstring injury and then tore the PCL in his knee diving for a ball in the outfield immediately upon returning; thankfully, the injury did not require surgery and he should be back on the field sometime next month. Cain remains a toolshed, but hopes of him taking over for Mike Cameron next year were probably dashed by all the time he's missed, and the earliest we can realistically hope to see him roaming center field for the Brewers is 2011.

3B Taylor Green (22), AA - Like Cain, Green missed the beginning of the year, having had surgery on his wrist in January. After a short week-long rehab in Wisconsin to get him back to game speed, Green took his place in the Huntsville lineup, where he's gotten eight games under his belt, too few to really form an impression yet. If he hits as expected and Gamel fields as feared, Green could end up as the Brewers' third baseman sometime next year. He won't be a star, either offensively or defensively, but he's shown a knack so far in his career for getting the job done.

RSP Jake Odorizzi (19), R - Odorizzi hasn't seen the field since we ranked the prospects, as the Brewers are being conservative with their premium prep arms. He's working out in extended spring training in Arizona, and we'll see him when the Pioneer League begins play in late June.

LF Cole Gillespie (25), AAA - Gillespie began the year DHing for Brevard County as the result of an elbow injury that prevented him from playing the field, but he's been at Nashville for a little over a month now. Likely limited to left field because of shoulder surgery in college that gimped his arm, Gillespie won't ever hit for the power expected out of a corner outfielder but tries to make for it with a patient plate approach. Though he's hitting just .221/.353/.337 so far this year, he's a nice guy to have around in case of injury, and he could be a fine fourth outfielder for the Brewers for awhile.
MLE: .188/.284/.287

2B Cutter Dykstra (20), R - Perhaps the most disappointing prospect on the list, Dykstra opened the year leading off and playing center field for the Timber Rattlers, but was displaced in both areas by Erik Miller after Dykstra hit just .212/.310/.303 and displayed some rather creative routes in the outfield. Also reportedly struggling with the blowback from his father Lenny's personal life falling apart, he was ultimately demoted to Helena and shifted to second base, his more natural position. Dykstra hit well at Helena last year, so hopefully he'll be back up to Wisconsin (with a concomitant promotion for Brett Lawrie) before the year is out.
MLE: .188/.284/.287

RF Caleb Gindl (20), A+ - Finally, a prospect that's hitting well! Despite concerns about his height and ultimate ceiling, Gindl continues to get it done, hitting .296/.375/.444 in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. After striking out a ton last year, his BB/K ratio has improved, and he's plus defender with a strong arm in right field. He'd be in the top ten if we redid the rankings today.
MLE: .234/.293/.338

RRP Omar Aguilar (24), AA - Aguilar was returned to AA to improve his command, but he's gone backwards in that regard, and has been more hittable. He still throws really hard, but he doesn't have much to back it up with. Hopes that he can help the big league bullpen soon are fading.
MLE: 13 IP, 4.83 FIP, 12/15 K/BB, 15 H, 0 HR, 36.6 GB%

1B/OF Brad Nelson (26), AAA (Seattle) - 0-21

RSP Tim Dillard (25), AAA - Dillard continues to pitch in the starting rotation at Nashville, though the Brewers have admitted they view him as a reliever. His stuff is too mediocre to succeed as a starter, but his velocity was way up coming out of the pen last year; with his nice sinker, he could be a cut-rate Todd Coffey, or at the very least, he could take Jorge Julio's place and be a true long man.
MLE: 52.1 IP, 4.44 FIP, 18/25 K/BB, 52 H, 1 HR, 56.0 GB%

LSP Zach Braddock (21), A+ - Nobody has more helium this year than Braddock. He missed the start of the season after having his ulnar nerve transposed, but has come on like gangbusters, striking out 22 while walking only 2 in 12 innings for the Manatees. The walks are the most encouraging sign, since it allows us to somewhat write off his control problems last year as being related to the irritated nerve. Being eased back and having only thrown 71.1 innings last year, Braddock yet to go more than two innings in a game, but long-term, he's the best pitching prospect in the organization after Jeffress.
SS Brent Brewer (21), A+ - Hopes were high for the ultra-toolsy Brewer after he showed marginal improvement toward the end of last year, but he's been terribad: .203/.259/.273. Other raw, football-type guys like Daryl Jones provide a modicum of hope for Brewer, but the light switch better come on fast.
MLE: .165/.207/.220

Others:

Second-round pick Cody Adams has been very disappointing for a college starter in A-ball. He reportedly worked in the low 90s, touching 96, while at SIU, but he's barely touched 90 this season for the Timber Rattlers and has allowed a bunch of hits and walks.
Evan Anundsen threw a no-hitter for Brevard County earlier this year and has seen his peripherals take a strong step forward from last year. A groundball specialist, he only throws in the mid-80s, but it's working so far.
The Brewers' 9th-round pick last year, Michael Bowman has continued to build on his encouraging debut. As a college pitcher, a promotion to Brevard County at some point this year seems in order.
My man, Chris Dennis, was mysteriously left off the T-Rats' roster to begin the year. I don't know if he was injured or what, but he's made up for lost time, hitting .415/.468/.829 in the 12 games he's been there, including homering twice off Reds prospect J.C. Sulbaran last night. Lefty sluggers are a prized commodity, so keep your eye on Dennis.
Towering first-round lefty Evan Frederickson has regained some of his velocity from last year, though he's not the 97 mph fireballer he was reported to be--yet, anyway. No doubt he has the capability, but, as with many tall pitchers, his mechanics are wildly inconsistent, which also affects his command, as his 28 walks in 29.1 innings attest.
Since he's older, I was hoping that big Brock Kjeldgaard would get off to a strong start and earn a quick promotion, but he hasn't. Jeff's numbers suggest he's getting a little unlucky, and his power and patience are still intact (.237/.337/.442), but he's striking out a ton (52 in 156 ABs).
An outfielder in the Caleb Gindl mode (short and left-handed), Erik Komatsu Komalished the Pioneer League last year but has only played in one game this year, dealing with a concussion and wrist injury.
Wily Peralta is for real, posting a 40/10 K/BB in 36 innings for Wisconsin. He's got good control for his age, but he's not some pitchability guy dominating raw fastball hitters; he has legitimate stuff, a mid-90s fastball and good slider. After Alcides Escobar, Peralta is the best international prospect in the system.
Big righty Cody Scarpetta has also opened eyes at Wisconsin with his stuff (42 Ks in 32.2 innings), though his control lags behind Peralta's. It will be fun to watch those two climb the ladder together over the next couple years.
Goofy-looking Logan Schafer might be the outfield version of Escobar: a raw but gifted pure hitter with excellent defense at a premium position. The Brewers' third-round pick last year, Schafer has a .310/.338/.451 line at Brevard County. If he can learn a little plate discipline, he'll become a very interesting prospect.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 13:51:36 -0000

Some things to read while making a parking space.

Ryan Braun could return to action in the major league portion of Brewer camp within the next day or two. Yesterday, he took Brian Fuentes deep in a minor league game with the Angels. Craig Counsell also went 3-for-4 in that game and should rejoin the team soon.

Trevor Hoffman played catch yesterday and is showing signs of improvement, but will still almost certainly start the season on the DL. Carlos Villanueva will be called upon to close until Hoffman is ready. The Brewers will also have an extra arm in the bullpen on Opening Day, as Dave Bush will get his work in as he makes final preparations for his start in the fifth game of the season.

On the field yesterday, Mark DiFelice pitched the first three innings of a 1-0 victory over the Giants and won a spot in the bullpen to start the season.

Mitch Stetter, who also pitched a scoreless inning yesterday, talked with Tom H. about how much he learned working with Brian Shouse, and his preparations for the 2009 season.

Alcides Escobar was also profiled over the weekend. He's likely headed back to the minors, and could be sent down as soon as today or tomorrow.

It could always be worse, though: Adam McCalvy is reporting that Omar Aguilar has joined the crowd at Obliqueapullooza and Alexandre Periard may require shoulder surgery.

On rankings/projections/predictions:

Mike Fahmie has the Brewers winning 78 games and finishing fifth in the Central. Crappy Brewer prediction aside, I can't imagine a world where four NL Central teams that aren't the Brewers win more than 78 games this season.
The Giants Baseball Blog predicts the Brewers will finish third in the Central.
The Toronto Star has the Brewers 14th in their power rankings.
The Daily Hick predicts the Brewers will win 72 games and finish fourth.
MLB FanHouse has...well, I guess this is a preview...right?
Sports Fan Goods expects the Brewers to "struggle mightily and finish towards the bottom of the NL Central."
Intellectual Thicket's Baseball Mogul projections have the Brewers winning 78 games and finishing tied for fourth in the Central.

Still looking for a summer job? The Brewers are hiring for a Community Relations Internship and a Stadium Operations Internship.

In other camps:

A's: Added two catchers over the weekend, trading for Blue Jays minor leaguer Curtis Thigpen and signing Eric Munson. Also, Justin Duchsherer will have elbow surgery but no one seems sure what doctors will find while they're in there.
D-Backs: He was healthy enough to pitch yesterday and will pitch once more before Opening Day, but the team is expected to hide Max Scherzer on the DL until they need a fifth starter.
Giants: Acquired C Ronny Paulino from the Phillies for lefty Jack Taschner, then traded him to the Marlins for catcher Hector Correa.
Mariners: Brandon Morrow is expected to be the team's long term closer, so Tyler Walker was released. They also acquired utilityman Chris Burke from the Padres for cash.
Mets: Released Ron Villone.
Phillies: Released Marcus Giles.
Rangers: Claimed Joe Koshansky off waivers from the Rockies.
Red Sox: Brad Wilkerson has left the team.
Tigers: Will place Dontrelle Willis on the DL to start the season with an anxiety disorder.
Twins: Worked out a deal with the Yankees to keep Rule 5 pick Jason Jones.

So yesterday both the Brewers and Giants held back their respective starting pitchers, Yovani Gallardo and Randy Johnson, an act of gamesmanship to prevent either pitcher from showing too much to their first regular season opponent. This move worked out relatively well for the Brewers yesterday but is it worth the effort? I'll go ahead and say no.

Holding back young talent to keep their arbitration clock from starting is always a bad decision, but it's even worse when you're trying to contend. The Braves, potential frontrunners in the NL East, may start center fielder Jordan Schafer in AAA, even though he's winning the competition for the starting job.

How much do April games matter, anyway? Baseball Analysts unveils Championship Leverage Index to answer that question and many others.

How much difference does it make when a pitcher's velocity goes up and down? Tangotiger says a 2.5 mph increase in velocity is good for a drop of about .25 in ERA. That's pretty significant.

A lot of factors have to be considered when designing a new stadium, but apparently the Yankees missed one. YES Network and ESPN are reportedly going to request changes to the ballpark, which is not conducive to TV cameras.

Oh, and sometimes you need to be more careful while pouring out a beer.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 14:26:46 -0000

Some things to read while getting your clothes out of the dryer.

Easily the biggest Brewer news of the day happened far from Arizona. Ryan Braun, playing for Team USA in the WBC, left yesterday's game with soreness in his side. (h/t FanShot) It doesn't sound like it's expected to be serious.

Meanwhile, Braden Looper is expected to throw a simulated game this morning, his last one before pitching a minor league game and then a Cactus League game sometime around March 24.

While Looper works his way in, Tim Dillard, Nick Green and Omar Aguilar are among six pitchers on their way out, having been optioned back to minor league camp. Dillard, who will apparently work as a starter this season, made the most of his last day in camp, entertaining teammates with his Harry Caray and Ed Sedar impressions.

Also in minor league camp, Chris Capuano continues to work on his recovery from his second Tommy John surgery. Sounds like things are going well, but he won't be stretched out enough to start games until mid-May.

Some visual evidence from this weekend's action:

Bill Hall's calf is better. Now, why is he sliding head first in spring training?
Lorenzo Cain shows off his home run trot.
You may not have heard of Brent Krause, but he left an imprint in the wall for you to remember him by.

J.J. Hardy and Ryan Braun each took first place in Crawfish Boxes' NL Central positional rankings at shortstop and left field, respectively. Largely because of contributions from Hardy and Braun, David Pinto of Baseball Musings thinks the Brewers' probable lineup is good for 4.71 runs per game this season, up from 4.63 last season.

Dale Sveum is hoping to get even more production out of his hitters by cutting down on strikeouts.

Speaking of projections and predictions, Baseball Analysts has their NL Central Preview up. All three participants think the Cubs will win the division by 10 games or more.

Lisa Winston of MiLB.com has been spending some time around Brewer camp, and has ten Brewer prospects to watch, along with an overview of the system that's worth a read.

Notes from other camps:

Cubs: Signed Esteban German to a minor league deal.
Giants: May be interested in ~~derailing their youth movement~~ signing Ivan Rodriguez to compete for a job at third base.
Mariners: Claimed Jesus Delgado off waivers from the Marlins.
Marlins: Released Jay Gibbons.
Mets: Claimed Fernando Nieve off waivers from the Astros.
Nationals: Signed Julian Tavarez to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed Chris Snelling to a minor league deal, and also Duaner Sanchez.
Red Sox: Julio Lugo will have arthroscopic knee surgery and will likely not be ready for Opening Day.
Rockies: Signed Lew Ford to a minor league deal.

Some day we might look back at the players of today in a similar light, but this seems like an extreme example: Hal McCoy has the story of former Red Buddy Gilbert, who left baseball in 1959 over a contract dispute. He and the Reds were $200 apart.

Baseball Musings also previewed the offense of the 2009 Pirates, and projects them for .3 runs per game less than 2008, or almost 50 fewer runs this season.

The Cardinals organization checked in at #21 in FanGraphs organizational rankings joining the Pirates, Reds and Astros to give the NL Central four of the bottom nine teams.

If you're out in Arizona this spring and want to make sure you're not healthy enough to leave, check out Mariner beat writer Larry Stone's review of The Heart Attack Grill.

Oh, and according to Tim Kurkijian, David Eckstein's wife, Ashley Eckstein, is the voice of Darth Vader.

Drink up.

Handicapping the next set of cuts

KLSnow — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 13:00:11 -0000

The Brewers are likely close to the point where they need to trim down camp a bit. With starting pitchers getting stretched out and regular position players getting more time, there's just not as many innings and at bats to go around as there used to be, meaning a few of the less-likely candidates to open the season on the roster will probably be making the journey over to minor league camp in the next few days. Here are my odds for the candidates:

Chris Narveson - 1:1

Narveson has made three appearances in camp, but was lit up in his last one, giving up five runs (four earned) in two innings, including two home runs. All told, Narveson's upside just isn't that high and he's likely ticketed for a spot near the bottom of the rotation in Nashville.

Sam Narron - 3:2

Narron has yet to allow a run in camp, scoreless over five innings. But he's walked four and given up five hits in those five innings, while striking out just two. Narron is roughly the fifth best left-handed reliever in camp, behind Stetter, Swindle, Chase Wright and Lindsay Gulin.

Lindsay Gulin - 2:1

Gulin gets a slight advantage over Narveson because he hasn't had a bad outing in camp, and over Narron for having a much better K/BB ratio (8:2). Gulin has pitched in three games (five innings), and has allowed just one run on three hits. Gulin is 32 and has pitched 11 minor league seasons. Last year he pitched well in Nashville, and the Brewers may want to send him down so he can start getting stretched out.

Omar Aguilar- 4:1

Possibly the organization's top relief prospect, Aguilar could be a victim of the numbers game in camp, with no less than 17 other pitchers (not counting the three listed above) needing innings. Aguilar has allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits and two walks while striking out five this spring.

Carlos Corporan 8:1

At present, he's one of the few healthy catchers in camp, but with Vinny Rottino back from the WBC and Angel Salome and Mike Rivera getting ready to come back from injuries, by this time next week the Brewers will be back to having five healthy catchers plus Corporan, who is not considered a prospect and has virtually no chance of making the team.

Trot Nixon 10:1

Not that long ago, the Brewers had a shortage of outfielders. Now, when Ryan Braun returns from the WBC and Tony Gwynn makes his debut, the Brewers will have Braun, Cameron, Hart, Chris Duffy and Brad Nelson, all of whom would appear to be ahead of Nixon in the race to make the team, plus Tony Gwynn and Lorenzo Cain, who both could use some extra time for evaluation purposes.