SB Nation - Andy Pettitte

New York Yankees Team of the Decade

Ed Valentine — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 15:34:39 -0000

'Tis the season for teams of the decade. Fans around baseball, except maybe in Boston where you know they would put up a fight, have to concede that the New York Yankees are the team of the decade.

But, looking specifically at the Yankees themselves, what is THEIR Team of the Decade? Some positions, like shortstop, catcher and closer, are obvious. Others, less so.

Here is my stab at naming the New York Yankee Team of the Decade.

C -- Jorge Posada. Duh! Sorry, Francisco Cervelli fans. This one, of course, is easy.

1B -- Jason Giambi. This position presents a real conundrum. The first name that leaps to mind is Giambi, but in his seven seasons with the Yankees he played more than half the team's games at first base just twice. And, he played more than 100 games there only one. He averaged 76.8 games per season at first base as a Yankee. Tino Martinez played just three seasons, but was the full-time first baseman each of those years playing 147 games per season. Tino averaged 22 homers and 83 RBI in his three seasons. Giambi averaged 32 home runs and 94 RBI, splitting his time between first base and designated hitter. Honestly, I hate doing it, but In the end I have to go with Giambi, especially since his pair of 41-home run seasons as a Yankee came when he was the primary first baseman in 2002 and 2003.

2B -- Robinson Cano. A close call here over Alfonso Soriano, based largely on Cano having five seasons (yes, five, can you believe it?) as the starting second baseman. Soriano was terrific, averaging 32 homers, 89 RBI and 39.6 stolen bases, but was a Yankee for just three seasons before being dealt away. Cano has averaged 17 home runs, 79 RBI and has a career average of .306 in five seasons. He is also a better defender. Again, I think length of service gives this one to Cano.

SS -- Derek Jeter. Umm, who else? If I was naming one, Jeter would also be Yankee Player of the Decade. Gee, maybe I just did name one.

3B -- Alex Rodriguez. Again, a no-brainer. Gotta at least give Aaron Boone an honorable mention, though, for his 2003 home run that propelled the Yankees to the World Series.

LF -- Johnny Damon. This is, obviously, between Damon and Hideki Matsui. And, in my opinion, not a choice between which one belongs on the Team of the Decade. Rather, a choice between which one is the left fielder and which one is the designated hitter. In four New York seasons, Damon has been the primary left fielder for just two years. He has DH'ed just 29 times in those two years, however. Matsui has DH'ed 250 times in six productive New York seasons. So, he gets the left field nod.

CF -- Bernie Williams. Bern, baby, Bern! Was a fixture with the Yankees for seven of the decade's 10 seasons, and was an integral part of the lineup. Hit 136 of 287 career home runs this decade. I know many of you are still irritated by how the Yankees treated Bernie at the end, but that's done with. Let's just give him his due.

RF -- Bobby Abreu. This is another excruciatingly tough call. First, it was difficult to rule out fan favorite Paul O'Neill, whom I think with our hearts we would all probably like to give this spot to. O'Neill, though, played just two seasons this decade and in the second was a shell of himself. So, this choice is really between Abreu and Gary Sheffield. Sheffield had two dominant seasons (.290, 36, 121 and .291, 34, 123), but only played 39 games in his third season due to injury. Abreu had two excellent full seasons (.283, 16, 101, 25 steals and .296, 20, 100, 22 steals). I think Abreu gets the nod because of his impact in 2006, when he was traded to the Yankees to replace the injured Sheffield and hit .330 with 7 home runs and 42 RBI in 58 games, helping the Yankees reach the playoffs.

DH -- Hideki Matsui. The World Series MVP absolutely has to have a place on this team. In six Yankee seasons Matsui has been nothing but productive, hitting .292 and averaging 22 home runs and 99.5 RBI per season.

SP -- Andy Pettitte. Whew! Another really difficult call between Pettitte and Mike Mussina. I know 'wins' is not the only way to measure a pitcher, but for the purpose of this argument it shows how close these two are. Mussina won 123 regular-season games, including 20 at the age of 39, in seven Yankee seasons this decade. Pettitte won 111 regular-season games despite spending three wayward seasons in Houston. The real difference between Pettitte and Mussina is post-season success. 'Moose' was 5-7 in Yankee post-season career. Pettitte, this decade, is 11-5 with a World-Series clinching victory fresh in my mind. I could easily name them both, but if I had to take one it would still be Pettitte.

CL -- Mariano Rivera. The best of all time. Period.

Manager -- Joe Torre. What choice do you have here? Joe Girardi has a World Series title in his two seasons, and he will likely be around for a long time. Hopefully, one day his resume will match what Torre did in New York, but not yet. This decade may not have matched the 1990s for Torre in terms of World Series titles, but one championship, two AL pennants, and playoff appearances all eight seasons he managed the team is pretty darn impressive.

So, what do you guys think? Tell me where I'm right. And wrong. And tell me why.

Thursday Bird Droppings

Camden Chat — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Farewell, Mr. Ray, and thanks for all the ~~hair weaves~~ ~~fish~~ ~~dingers~~ saves.

Browse more photos »

There's a billion articles on the web about the Millwood-for-Ray trade, and lots of discussion here at Camden Chat.

In other news,

The Rangers have agreed to terms with Rich Harden and are close to a deal with the Red Sox that would give them Mike Lowell for minor league catcher Max Ramirez. The Sox are in the mix for Adrian Beltre to replace Lowell at third. Andy Pettitte re-signed with the Yankees for a year. The Brewers bagged Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins. The Astros got closer Matt Lindstrom in a trade with Florida, and are close to signing closer Brandon Lyon. And the Blue Jays are again taking the Orioles sloppy seconds as they signed the car jumping wonder Joey Gathright.

The Mets asked why the world was passing them by.

Florida Marlins: Giants cooling, Orioles warming on Uggla?
"The Orioles aren't going to move Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz, but they might consider parting with prospects like Jake Arrieta, David Hernandez, Jason Berken or Zach Britton. Two from that group probably nets them Uggla." Two out of that group? For Dan Uggla? Pass. -duck

Orioles could become players on Hideki Matsui - CBSSports.com
According to Scott Miller, the Orioles, could become serious players for Hideki Matsui depending on how things play out there with the Yankees and where Matsui might turn next. This is hardly a blurb, and seems like mostly speculation. -zk

Roundup - In Annual Address, Scott Boras Delivers Just the Highlights - NYTimes.com
Scott Boras flaps his gums at the winter meetings, comparing Holliday to Mark Teixeira. -zk

So make a trade already | DailyHerald.com Blogs
These guys are impatient because Andy MacPhail moved faster than Jim Hendry. I'm really, really tired of "fans" who aren't happy unless "something interesting" happens for their team at the winter meetings. These guys would love Schmuck, who feels the winter meetings exist for teams to make a headline-grabbing splash that will sell season tickets. -zk

M's sign outfielder Corey Patterson
Former Orioles (S)Corey Patterson signs a minor-league deal with the Ms. -zk

I never thought it was such a bad little Open Thread. It's not bad at all, really. Maybe it just needs a little love.

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:59:31 -0000

The Winter meetings see every team show up and do nothing while sportswriters blow hot air and call it smoke signals. Here is my analysis of how each major league team fared at the Winter meetings by comparing them to one of the TOP 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time.

AL WEST

Angels - Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. They already got their ace pitcher in August and can talk of days for which they sit and wait where all will be revealed.

Athletics - the Who: Who Are You - I heard a rumor in 2002 that the way these guys ran their team was going to let them compete with the big boys. Tell me who are you... Who who? Who who?

Rangers - AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - They get Rich Harden on an incentive deal, Mike Lowell with his salary paid and unload Kevin Millwood. And they are being sold for a lot less than their owner owes the bank.

Mariners - The Beatles: Come Together - It is obvious they have a plan, they got $50 Million to spend, they got Figgy Sideboard, they got hair, down, to their knees, hold you in their Safeco you can feel Ichiro sneeze.

AL CENTRAL

Twins - Rolling Stones' Brown Sugar - How come Gardenhire manages so good? They were quiet at the meetings in obvious preparation for making Joe Mauer rich, at which point you know they will be singing "I said yeah, yeah yeah WHOO!"

Tigers - Led Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks - Dumped Curtis Granderson in order to rebuild. Got flooded in prospects.

White Sox - Jethro Tull's Aqualung - You might need a similar breathing apparatus to talk as fast and furious as Ozzie Guillen.

Indians - Don McClean's American Pie - nostalgia for the 90s? News of them trading Kelly Shoppach for a PTBNL makes one a bit wistful for the days when this team was a powerhouse...

Royals - Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run - Any song with the line "tramps like us" has to be referring to these underachievers, who showed up in snowy Indianapolis to sign a Cuban defector.

AL EAST

Yankees - Pink Floyd's Money - When you can pay Andy Pettitte $12 Million for one year, you certainly are in the race.

Red Sox - Van Halen's Runnin' With the Devil - No other team in sports defines itself by its main competitor more. The lack of action on the Free Agent front among all teams is the matching up the wallets between John Henry and George.

Rays - Boston's More Than a Feeling - Joe Maddon's club gets quite a bit of respect and when they are tied to a rumored signing everyone pays attention.

Blue Jays - Rolling Stones' You Can't Always Get What You Want - Roy Halladay will bring you some good players, and if you try some time, you just might find... you get what you need.

Orioles - Rolling Stones' Sympathy for the Devil - Peter Angelos used to be the agreed upon worst owner in the sport, but you gotta feel sorry for him with the McCourts, that soccer coach in Arlington and some of these other schmoes...

NL WEST

Giants - Led Zeppelin's Ramble On - Mentioned in every free agent signing possibility and trades galore but it was years ago in days of old when their magic (in a pill) ruled the world, so I guess they'll just keep ramblin' on....

Rockies - KISS' Rock N Roll All Night - If you had their wealth of pitching, you'd be partying at the winter meetings just daring clubs to make you an offer while two strippers in the hot tub were calling you over...

Dodgers - Derek and the Dominos' Layla - They did not even offer arbitration to some good players as the owner's divorce has Frank McCourt on his knees, beggin' darlin' please...

Padres - Rolling Stones' Paint it Black - Bud Black is obviously held in high regard and ... as for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors? I could not foresee this thing happening to you...

Diamondbacks - Van Halen's Jump. A big trade? Headlines? Dumping big prospects for AL maybe arms? Might as well jump. JUMP!

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals - The Doors' Light My Fire - You know that it would be untrue, you know that they would be a liar, if Ken Rosenthal were to tweet "Pujols trade rumors gettin' higher"

Cubs - Guns N Roses: Welcome to the Jungle - Signed Milton Bradley last year and now finding it hard to trade him. If you got the money honey, he will still be your disease... in the jungle...

Brewers - Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love - 3 years for Randy Wolf is "Love" not "Likes a lot"

Astros - Elton John's Funeral for a Friend - I guess we can be happy for them that they still get an invitation to the Winter Meetings...

Reds - Def Leppard's Pour Some Sugar on Me - Dusty Baker can make the worst headache of a managing job sound sweet.

Pirates - Black Sabbath's Paranoid. People think they're insane because they are frowning all the time.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond - Never a better time to be a Philly or a Phillies fan.

Braves - Cream's Crossroads - They sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and then Rafael Soriano accepts arbitration. Should they just go with possibly the best bullpen in history or trade Soriano, the best of the three relievers?

Marlins - Jimi Hendrix: All Along the Watchtower - They always have a good player or two that you gotta keep your eye on at these meetings.

Mets - The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again. But you know they will. It will be hard to top last offseason's swindle by Bernie Madoff, though.

Nationals - Foghat's Slow Ride. They signed Pudge!!! Saving up for Nationals playoff tickets??? Take it easy.

Yankees sign Andy Pettitte

Eli Greenspan — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:03:43 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Browse more photos »

The Yankees and Andy Pettitte have agreed to a one year deal worth 11.75 mllion dollars.

Pettitte typically likes to drag out negotiations, but the Yankees are in position to have another excellent season and he would have been taking a huge risk by playing games with upper management.

Pettitte, who turns 38 on June 15, went 14-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 32 starts during the regular season, then 4-0 with a 3.52 ERA in the postseason, winning the clinching game of all three Yankees' playoff series.

The addition of Pettitte doesn't mean the Yankees are not going to pursue other options for their rotation. With CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, the fifth spot could go to several players.

Chien-Ming Wang struggled mightily this past season, but is 55-26 with a 4.16 ERA in his career. However, he isn't expected to be fully healthy until midseason 2010, so it is possible he will be non-tendered.

Phil Hughes was great out of the bullpen, but that was more of a pleasant surprise for the Yankees than something planned. From what I've heard, Hughes will be given a shot to crack the starting rotation.

The Yankees are keeping tabs on Rich Harden, Kelvim Escobar, and Justin Duchscherer, an indication that they may add a cheap veteran as a safety net in case Hughes is not ready for the rotation.

Pettitte return official

Ed Valentine — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:45:19 -0000

From MLB.com.

Andy Pettitte is putting the pinstripes back on for another season.

The 37-year-old left-hander agreed to terms with the Yankees on a one-year contract worth $11.75 million on Wednesday, MLB.com has confirmed.

More good news. A great couple of days for the Yankees.

Yankees Re-Sign Andy Pettitte To One-Year Deal

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Browse more photos »

In what has become somewhat of an annual event, Andy Pettitte has re-signed with the New York Yankees on a one-year deal that will reportedly pay the lefty $11.75 million dollars. It's seems like every offseason, I ask myself how can Pettitte keep racking up eight figure salaries? The answer is simple; he's worth it.

Even at his advanced age of 37, Pettitte is still an above average starter. It seems that he could wake up out of bed and hand you a 3.5-4 WAR season without much effort. Over the last eight seasons, his average WAR has been 4.14. If you remove the injury shortened season of 2004, he has earned a 4.46 WAR over the past seven season in which he has thrown at least 130 innings.

Since 2002, he has made over $93 million dollars. That seems like a lot for a guy who isn't necessarily thought of as an ace. Despite not having the ace tag ,and the increasing number of birthday candles on his cake, he has delivered nearly $120 million in WAR value in those years.

At a salary of $11.75 million dollars, Pettitte needs to give the Yankees a little more than 2.5 WAR in 2010 to give them a fair return on their investment. His FIP and xFIP were a bit elevated in 2009 due to higher than normal walk rates, but nothing alarming. With his track record of giving nearly 200 innings per season plus an above average FIP/xFIP, it should be pretty easy for the Yankees to get value once again from Pettitte.

Pettitte won't make it easy for Yankees

Ed Valentine — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 12:59:25 -0000

Have you heard the "news" yet that Andy Pettitte has apparently turned down the first contract offer he received from our New York Yankees?

I put news in quotes because it should hardly be a surprise that a) Pettitte wants to continue pitching and b) he wants a bigger base salary than he received in 2009.

I am confident this will get done eventually. But, Pettitte won't make it easy. He never does.

New York Yankees notes: About that budget ...

Ed Valentine — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 13:03:53 -0000

Oh, boy! Not 48 hours after we heard that our New York Yankees would have a budget of about $185 million for the 2010 season, word is already out that the number is "not a hard ceiling." Who did not expect that? We should know by now that there is never a hard ceiling on Steinbrenner money, and I know I'm OK with that.

We know that re-signing Andy Pettitte is General Manager Brian Cashman's first priority this off-season, as it should be. As a backup plan, it seems the Yankees are likely to check in with just about every available free-agent starting pitcher on the planet.

NY Baseball Digest thinks all of this speculation is bad news for fans of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain in the rotation. To me, that's a classic over-reaction to a team simply pouring over its options during the middle of the off-season.

Robinson Cano, by the way, has an idea for the rotation. He would like to see Pedro Martinez in pinstripes.

"I say he's got some more in him. He'd be good (with the Yankees), especially with the kind of team we got," said Cano. "We score, most games, four or five runs. Guy like him, we only need him like five, six innings."

Thank God Cano is a second baseman and not a general manager. Pedro would be a desperation move, and the Yankees are not desperate.

By the way, the Winter Meetings start today. Jayson Stark of ESPN looks at what he sees as the top five plot lines for the meetings.

I'm not a John Sterling fan, but Zell's Pinstripe Blog points out a fun link to a clip of Sterling's most memorable calls of the 2009 post-season.

Finally, the New York Daily News tells us Alex Rodriguez is enjoying being a champion.

Beyond the Game Score: Park-Adjusted Game WAR

SFiercex4 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:56:46 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

San Francisco Giants' Jonathan Sanchez, right, is embraced by catcher Eli Whiteside at the end of a baseball game after hearing that his no-hitter against the San Diego Padres Friday, July 10, 2009, in San Francisco, had the highest WAR total of the season among individual starts. Hug it out, gentlemen, what a great accomplishment! I'm getting a little teary-eyed just talking about it myself. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Browse more photos »

Recently, Crashburn Alley's Bill Baer did a piece on Game Score and consistency which found its way onto resident chief Tommy Bennett's No Pepper links. Apparently, Tommy's not a fan of Game Score, and neither am I.

I had been recently trying to come up with a way to adjust Game Score for defense and park, maybe attempt a shot at a new Game Score formula for batted balls. This seemed like an interesting side project to tackle until VEP posted this one-line gem:

I just use Game WAR.

I was floored. What an simple yet elegant concept. I decided to have some fun with the data and throw out some Game WAR numbers for the BtB readership. Here's what I did.

Methodology

I took all non-Interleague starts this season with a Game Score over 80. I decided to exclude Interleague games to eliminate the need to determine average run support in an Interleague game (in retrospect, I suppose I could have used NL/AL average runs/game in Interleague play, but I already did the work, so take that). For what it's worth, I had to remove seven games from the sample of total starts with a Game Score above 80. This left me with 121 starts, ranging from Jonathan Sanchez's no-hitter (Game Score of 98) to Randy Johnson's April 19th start against the Arizona Diamondbacks (Game Score of 80). Of the 9276 starts made outside of Interleague play this season, this supposedly represents the best 1.3% of starts this season.

For my methodology for pitcher WAR, I used FIP as the run-determining metric to separate defense from pitching, mostly because of ease. I took all the relevant FIP statistcs (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, intentional walks, and home runs) and calculated FIP, using 3.19 as the scalar to ERA (the NL should have been 3.18 and the AL should have been 3.20, but these points shouldn't matter all that much). I park-adjusted the pitcher's FIP according to Patriot's five-year regressed park factors and stuck the inputs into Pythagenpat. Since all of Patriot's factors are already adjusted to account for players playing half their games at their home park, I reversed the adjustments for this exercise by doing the following:

PFGmWAR = [(PF-1)*2] + 1

This was done to get pure run inflation/deflation values for each park.

I used NL and AL non-Interleague average runs scored as the run support component. I used a .380 win% pitcher as replacement level.

Just for fun, I also decided to look at an old question brought up by Jeff of Lookout Landing, regarding A.J. Burnett and the myth of inconsistency. I grabbed game logs for three Yankees, Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and C.C. Sabathia, during the 2009 season and calculated Game WAR. I also took a look at [Game +1 WAR - Game WAR] (difference between consecutive starts).

The Numbers

I have all of the 121 starts listed in this Google spreadsheet for your perusal, but here I'll list the top 10 Game Scores of the season with relevant data and game WAR. I'll also then list the top 10 Game WAR games with data and Game Scores.

Ranked by Game Score

Gscr Rk	GmWAR Rk	Player	Date	Opp	IP	K	BB	FIP/0.92	GmWAR	Gscr
1	1	Jonathan Sanchez	7/10	SDP	9	11	0	0.81	0.56	98
T-2	T-33	Chris Carpenter	9/7	MIL	9	10	2	1.78	0.44	93
T-2	T-28	Mark Buehrle	7/23	TBR	9	6	0	2.02	0.45	93
T-4	T-5	Cliff Lee	8/19	ARI	9	11	0	1.17	0.53	92
T-4	T-16	Justin Verlander	5/8	CLE	9	11	2	1.54	0.49	92
T-6	T-44	Roy Halladay	9/4	NYY	9	9	3	2.38	0.40	91
T-6	T-22	Cole Hamels	9/1	SFG	9	9	1	1.66	0.47	91
T-6	T-24	Tim Lincecum	6/29	STL	9	8	0	1.54	0.46	91
T-6	T-19	Jeff Niemann	6/3	KCR	9	9	1	1.66	0.48	91
T-10	T-37	Carlos Zambrano	9/25	SFG	9	8	1	1.90	0.43	90

Note: There were three other games listed at Game Score of 90, I just listed the first one on the list for convenience.

Ranked by Game WAR

GmWAR Rk	Gscr Rk	Player	Date	Opp	IP	K	BB	FIP/0.92	GmWAR	Gscr
1	1	Jonathan Sanchez	7/10	SDP	9	11	0	0.81	0.56	98
T-2	T-36	Zack Greinke	5/4	CHW	9	10	0	1.05	0.55	85
T-2	T-36	Tim Lincecum	4/18	ARI	8	13	0	0.00*	0.55	85
T-2	T-57	Zack Greinke	4/18	TEX	9	10	0	1.05	0.55	83
T-2	T-23	Tim Lincecum	7/27	PIT	9	15	3	0.93	0.55	87
T-6	T-91	Ricky Nolasco	9/30	ATL	7.67	16	2	0.00*	0.53	81
T-6	T-4	Cliff Lee	8/19	ARI	9	11	0	1.17	0.53	92
T-8	T-75	Roy Halladay	9/25	SEA	9	9	0	1.29	0.52	82
T-8	T-19	Zack Greinke	4/24	DET	9	10	1	1.41	0.52	88
T-8	T-14	Wandy Rodriguez	7/8	PIT	9	11	1	1.17	0.52	87

*These games actually recorded negative FIP, but that of course broke the Pythagorean equation (at least on Excel). For those games I used a FIP of 0.

What do we see in these two lists? Well first off, none of these games are actually bad. There were a few games in the overall list in which pitchers had mediocre Three True Outcomes performances but allowed few hits and runs, resulting in good Game Scores but mediocre WAR totals. But in the top 10 performances, there were no poor performances to be shown, unsurprisingly. Also, the top 10 Game WAR list is comforting because it contains a lot of names from whom we would expect to see great starts, particularly Cy Young winners Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum. As a whole, these 121 games totaled 45.5 WAR if added up (which I know isn't really the correct method for calculating the WAR as a whole, but it likely comes close) in 1027 innings, a rate of 0.40 WAR/ 9 innings. Only Roy Halladay's start versus the Yankees came out as "average" for the sample.

That being said, there is not a whole lot of agreement between the two lists. Only two games appear in both lists, Cliff Lee's Philadelphia start versus Arizona and the overall leader, Sanchez's no-hitter against the Padres. In the 121-start sample, the R-squared of between Game Score and Game WAR was 0.26, and this should come as no surprise. Pitchers receive the full credit for all aspects of the game under Game Score, while FIP attempts to separate out defensive contributions. The strikeouts, walks/HBP, and home runs are there, but the remainder of the hits and outs are not credited to the pitcher in FIP.

When looking at the Game Score formula, I found that it weights innings pitched very heavily, as it gives bonus points for innings pitched/outs made after the fourth inning. When looking at the top 50 performances by Game Score, only 10 starts were of less than nine innings, and only one lasted less than eight. In the entire sample, 51 starts lasted fewer than nine innings. When ranked by Game WAR, 18 performances of less than nine innings made the top 50. I do think that shows some bias towards complete games that isn't reflected in the Game WAR ranking.

The home run, on the other hand, was punished more severely in the Game WAR system than the Game Score system. The first start to contain a home run when ranking by Game Score was Javier Vazquez's 6/11 start against Pittsburgh, ranked 32nd on the list. He struck out 12 and walked none in eight innings, picking up a 2-1 loss (and people think he pitched poorly!). However, when ranked by Game WAR, the first appearance of a home run comes from Gavin Floyd's 9/5 start against Boston, in which he gives up one homer, while striking out 11 and walking none in eight innings. That start is ranked 58th. Vazquez's start is ranked 63rd. While Game Score weights your average home run at maybe -2 to -3 points on a scale beginning at 50, home runs have a much more staggering weight on performance in WAR, especially at such low inning totals. Allowing one homer in nine innings of play already starts your FIP at 4.63, well below the league average of around 4.3-4.4. As a comparison, when tallying all the statistics of these games as a unit, the average game FIP was 2.02 in these 121 games.

Some more interesting notes:

- Lincecum appears three times on the list, and Greinke appears four times. As you saw in the Game WAR top 10, two of each of their starts appear, in alternating order, tied for second on the list with 0.55 WAR. Amazing seasons.

- The most victimized team was, unsurprisingly, the Pittsburgh Pirates. The team appeared ten times as opponents, being victimized for 4.1 WAR.

- The worst start, after park adjustment, belongs to Chris Carpenter, who struck out three and allowed one homer among three hits in a complete game against Cincinnati.

- Dan Haren was the only pitcher to allow more than one home run, giving up two solo jacks among 10 strikeouts and no walks in nine innings in a 7-2 win against the Chicago Cubs.

- There were four starts made in San Diego, with an average Game Score of 82 but an average Game WAR of 0.26. Unsurprisingly, there were no starts in Colorado, though i suspect after park adjustment, a few Coors Field starts would do well in the Game WAR method.

Consistency Talk

As I mentioned, I collected the game logs for three Yankees starters for 2009, Burnett, Pettitte, and Sabathia. I uploaded them here for your viewing pleasure; the WAR and Game Score details are the end of the sheet for each player.

Here are the average and standard deviations for each player.

Player	Avg GmWAR	StdDev	Avg GmWARDiff	StdDev
A.J. Burnett	0.11	0.16	0.00	0.26
Andy Pettitte	0.12	0.15	-0.02	0.17
C.C. Sabathia	0.18	0.16	0.00	0.21

GmWARDiff refers to the difference in GmWAR between consecutive starts. I don't really think standard deviation is the way to go to measure something like this, and Jeff Zimmerman has said that doing something that breaks down performance into buckets with assigned percentage chances of the pitcher's team winning would be more appropriate. Perhaps using Game WAR would be more beneficial in this methodology, since Game WAR is technically representative of a fraction of an actual win during a game.

Still, if you take this at face value, you can see that, as Jeff pointed out, the standard deviations between actual start values aren't all that different between the three pitchers, only one of which has a reputation as an inconsistent pitcher. If you take the standard deviation of the pitcher's start-to-start differences, Burnett does seem to have a higher value, signifying that he is "more inconsistent," though I don't think it's all that worse than Sabathia.

I think this was an interesting look, and if I get a chance (i.e. time) a little bit later, I might pick up all of the game logs for 2009 and check out FIP-WAR for each of them. I certainly think that, if we wanted to compare individual game performances, this would be a better way to go than using Game Score.

Arbitration decisions today

Travis G — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:16:23 -0000

[Note by Ed Valentine, 12/01/09 7:33 PM EST : From LoHud comes news that the Yankees have declined to offer arbitration to anyone.]

Of the four major names, how many will be offered arbitration? There's Johnny Damon (type A), Hideki Matsui (unranked), Andy Pettitte (B) and Xavier Nady (B, somehow).

Joel Sherman expects the Yankees to decline to offer arbitration to Damon, Matsui and Pettitte. I could see that. Damon and Matsui are aging stars that would likely accept arbitration (and Matsui doesn't even offer the benefit of bringing back a draft pick). With Pettitte, the Yanks probably feel they can retain him for another 'discounted' year.

Nady will be an interesting decision. He would be worth offering arbitration, because if he declined, he would bring back a second-round draft pick, and if he accepted, we would get a good left-fielder for 2010 (at a decent cost because he barely played this year). However, if the Yankees think he can't stay healthy (he's coming off Tommy John surgery), then obviously it's not worth it. I don't know enough about his medical condition to declare him healthy or unhealthy. Hopefully the front office knows more.

Poll

SB Nation - Andy Pettitte

New York Yankees Team of the Decade

Thursday Bird Droppings

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Yankees sign Andy Pettitte

Pettitte return official

Yankees Re-Sign Andy Pettitte To One-Year Deal

Pettitte won't make it easy for Yankees

New York Yankees notes: About that budget ...

Beyond the Game Score: Park-Adjusted Game WAR

Arbitration decisions today

Who should be offered arbitration (if you had to choose one)?