SB Nation - Clay Zavada

The 2009 'Pitties: The Cy Young Award

Jim McLennan — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Congratulation to Gerardo Parra, who romped away with the Rookie of the Year 'Pittie, with 68% of the overall vote. I'm a little surprised it was quite as wide a margin, because by objective measurements like WAR or VORP, Parra was a good deal less credible a candidate than Juan Gutierrez. For instance, by WAR, Gutierrez came in at 1.5 wins, while Parra was all the way down at 0.3 wins. That puts him behind Rusty Ryal (0.6) and Zavada (0.4) and only fractionally ahead of Trent Oeltjen (0.2). However, by the time this was mentioned to me, Parra already had what was basically an unsurmountable lead.

To be honest, I've got a feeling this penultimate award is going to prove even more one-sided - and in this case, I don't think there will likely be much argument from the sabermetric community. Frankly, a chunk of me is tempted to toss up the obvious nomination and then go back to gnawing on honey-baked ham [which is basically what I'll have been doing for the past 24 hours or so] . However, that would be an abdication of my responsibilities. And, perhaps more important, merely typing the words "honey-baked ham" made me feel slightly nauseous. So, after the jump, we'll go through the five names on the ballot. And remember, it's an honor simply to be nominated...

Doug Davis: 203.1 IP, 4.12 ERA

After three seasons of DD, we're used to it by now. He's up to sixth on the all-time franchise list for innings pitched, and hit 200 IP for the first time in Arizona. His WHIP of 1.505 was also the lowest it has been with the Diamondbacks, despite Davis leading the league in walks (103). However, Davis was then insanely good with men on base, posting a line of .215/.310/.321. Davis certainly deserved a better record: in the past fifteen seasons, only four qualifying NL pitchers have had a W-L% below .400 and a better ERA+ than Doug's 111 [Brandon Webb's 2004 leads that list]. If this was his last hurrah in Arizona, he can leave with his head held high.

Dan Haren: 229.1 IP, 3.14 ERA

Haren posted his fifth straight 200-inning season in 2009, one of only four pitchers with such a streak (alongside Vasquez, Buerhle and Arroyo). Dan was also the best pitcher in the National League over the first-half of the season, with a 2.01 ERA, and a K:BB ratio better than 8:1. He had 18 quality starts in his first 19 outings, including seven straight where he went 7+ innings and allowed two or less runs - there hasn't been a longer streak in the NL since 2001. While Haren cooled off after the break, he still set career highs for IP, K and ERA+ and came within one measly hit of becoming the first NL starter in four years to have a WHIP below one.

Chad Qualls: 52 IP, 3.63 ERA

In his first year as full-time closer, Qualls ended the season with 24 saves in 29 opportunities, good for sixth on the franchise all-time list. He'd likely have finished third, except he blew out his knee and missed the last month, following the pitch which secured his final save. That came as a pity, because he'd posted a 2.90 ERA over July and August. Qualls showed excellent control, walking just seven batters all year (he had almost as many double-plays: five), while fanning 45 hitters. 69% of all his pitches were strikes, and pitching in Chase didn't bother Chad at all: his ERA here was 2.63, with opponents held to a .657 OPS.

Max Scherzer: 170.1 IP, 4.12 ERA

Questions about Scherzer's stamina coming into 2009 were largely answered: the 25-year old threw over three thousand pitches, ranking him between Cole Hamels and Zach Duke, and gradually stretched out, to the point where he averaged 6.60 IP/start in September, a career high. He also ranked 13th in the league for strikes, at 65%, ahead of Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. Scherzer had a 2.16 ERA in June, which included his best outing, 7.2 shutout innings against the Giants. Not helped by his defense - the 16 unearned runs allowed was an NL high - Scherzer simply did it himself, fanning more than a batter per inning.

Clay Zavada: 51 IP, 3.35 ERA

Left-handed relief has often been a problem for Arizona, but Zavada's ERA+ of 136 was the best by such a player for us since 2000 (min 40 IP). Zavada set a franchise rookie record of nineteen consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run, which was also the best streak ever to start a career in the NL. Curiously, he was particularly brutal on right-handers, holding them to a .205 average, and faced 98 batters before allowing a home-run in the majors, during Zavada's 25th outing. His off-field contributions were perhaps as important: he energized the bullpen, the dugout and the fan-base like no-one else on the 2009 roster.

Poll

Who takes home the 2009 Cy Young 'Pittie award?

Doug Davis

3 votes

Dan Haren

147 votes

Chad Qualls

4 votes

Max Scherzer

7 votes

Clay Zavada

9 votes

170 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 'Pitties: Rookie of the Year

Jim McLennan — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 01:00:13 -0000

Why, yes - I have been waiting all year to use that picture, thank you for asking. Actually, I wanted to use one of that fan at ~~Joe Robbie Stadium~~ ~~Pro Player Park~~ ~~Pro Player Stadium~~ ~~Dolphin Stadium~~ Land Shark Stadium, who attended a May Marlins-Diamondbacks game in full Chewbacca get-up. I can think of about 29 other stadia in baseball where I'd rather wear a full-body fur suit. Before going on, however, congratulations to Ryan Roberts, who won the award for Unsung Hero of the Year, beating out Juan Gutierrez by a 2-1 margin. I trust he'll be getting our logo inked somewhere on him, to commemorate this honor.

Nine players made their major-league debuts for Arizona in 2009: Brandon Allen, Bryan Augenstein, John Hester, Trent Oeltjen, Gerardo Parra, Rusty Ryal, Daniel Schlereth, Esmerling Vasquez and Clay Zavada. They join other qualifiers Billy Buckner, Gutierrez, Bobby Korecky, Kevin Mulvey and Josh Whitesell - I've checked what I can find as far as transactions go for Buckner and I do not think he reached the 45-day cutoff for pre-September days on the roster since his debut in August 2007. If anyone knows differently, let me know and I'll cross him off . After the jump, we'll lay out the numbers for all the Diamondbacks' rookies in 2009.

	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Gerardo Parra*	22	120	491	455	59	132	5	60	5	7	25	89	.290	.324	.404	.729	85
Josh Whitesell*	27	46	133	108	7	21	1	14	0	0	24	29	.194	.346	.287	.633	64
Brandon Allen*	23	32	116	104	13	21	4	14	0	0	12	40	.202	.284	.385	.669	69
Trent Oeltjen*	26	24	73	70	11	17	3	4	3	1	1	13	.243	.250	.457	.707	76
Rusty Ryal	26	30	68	59	11	16	3	9	0	0	6	21	.271	.353	.593	.946	136
John Hester	25	15	30	28	4	7	1	4	0	0	2	7	.250	.300	.429	.729	83

	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	ERA+	WHIP
Billy Buckner	25	4	6	6.40	16	13	0	77.1	94	57	55	12	29	0	64	71	1.591
Juan Gutierrez	25	4	3	4.06	65	0	9	71.0	67	33	32	2	30	5	66	113	1.366
Esmerling Vasquez	25	3	3	4.42	53	0	0	53.0	52	27	26	4	29	2	45	104	1.528
Clay Zavada*	25	3	3	3.35	49	0	0	51.0	45	22	19	5	24	2	52	136	1.353
Kevin Mulvey	24	0	3	7.04	6	4	0	23.0	23	18	18	5	12	0	18	65	1.522
Daniel Schlereth*	23	1	4	5.89	21	0	0	18.1	15	13	12	1	15	1	22	78	1.636
Bryan Augenstein	22	0	1	7.94	7	2	0	17.0	23	16	15	2	6	2	6	58	1.706
Bobby Korecky	29	0	0	13.50	5	0	0	6.0	11	9	9	0	4	0	3	34	2.500

After careful analysis, I have come up with the following five nominees for Rookie of the Year. I ummed and ahhed over including Buckner, but questions over his rookie status and the fact that, until September, he largely blew chunks, convinced me that he did not quite qualify.

Juan Gutierrez - 71 IP, 113 ERA+
[What does this "paste" button do?] Leading the team in appearances and innings of relief Gutierrez in 2009 helped make the trade of Jose Valverde look good for the Diamondbacks. The rookie made 65 appearances, and posted an ERA+ of 113, giving up only two home-runs all year - to Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, hardly an embarrassment. After the loss of Chad Qualls at the end of August, Juan became the de facto closer, going a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances, ending the season with a perfect ninth in Wrigley. Said AJ Hinch, "He has pitched very, very well since the All-Star break. I think a lot of that can be attributed to how he is improving at getting left-handed hitters out."

Trent Oeltjen - .243/.250/.457 = .707 OPS
On August 6th, our favorite Australian baseball player - ok, the only one most of us know - replaced J-Up on the roster and became the first since at least 1954 to hit a home-run and swipe two bases during his major-league debut. He blazed across the baseball firmament for his first five games, going 12-for-24 with three HR and innumerable stolen hearts among the SnakePit Laideez. While he cooled off a bit after that (to put it mildly - his OPS after August 12 was .277!), Oeltjen's enthusiasm for the game and (I am informed) cute accent won him tons of admirers. He said "It's just something I've always wanted to do since I was little. It's been my dream. I wanted to stick it out and give it my all."
Gerardo Parra - .290/.324/.404 = .728 OPS, 60 RBI
The only Diamondback to actually receive any votes in the BBWAA ballot, was not originally expected to be on the team this year. Parra started the season down in Double-A Mobile, but was called up early on, after the loss of Conor Jackson, and wasted no time in making an impression, hitting a home-run in his first major-league at-bat and driving in runs each of his first five game. He won the Rookie of the Month award for May and trailed only the Brewers' Casey McGehee for rookie RBIs. Said Parra, "One thing I have learned is that you have to always stay focused. Sometimes things will go good, sometimes things will go bad, but you have to do the job everyday."
Rusty Ryal - .271/.353/.593 = .946 OPS
Sure, it was only thirty games, and likely completely unsustainable. But over the time after his debut on August 10th, Ryal more than held his own. The OPS Rusty posted put him in the top ten of the 302 NL players with sixty or more PAs, sandwiched right between Manny Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. It was also the best figure by any D-back with as many PAs since Tony Clark in 2005 - mostly because eleven of Ryal's 16 hits were for extra-bases. The most memorable of these was probably the ground-rule double off Hiroki Kuroda's head, which ricocheted back into the stands behind home-plate Obscurist factoid: Ryal is a big baseball-card collector.
Clay Zavada - 51 IP, 136 ERA+
If there were a category for Heart-warming Story of the Year, it would certainly belong to Zavada. See here for why we were so delighted when he made it to the big-leagues - and when he did, both the man and his performances lived up to the myth and the legend. An instant hit with the crowds at Chase [not least at SnakePitFest], Clay also didn't allow an earned run until his twentieth appearance, six weeks after he arrived. Overall, the only AZ rookie pitcher since 2003 with a better ERA+ (in fifty IP) was Max Scherzer last year. But Zavada's attitude is perhaps even more impressive than his pitching ability. Let's finish with a couple of quotes from the man:

Every day is a great day to be here. It's the best job in the world. You don't ever have a bad day at a ballpark. If you have cleats, a glove, a hat and someone has your name on a list to be out on the field for batting practice you've got the best job in the world. That's the way I feel...

Sometimes you ask people how they are doing and they tell you they are living the dream. They're not really living the dream. There's really only one percent that is really living the dream. I'm living the dream, my dream. Not many people get to do that in their lifetime. Life's not fair. Life's not easy. So I'm just thankful... You had better have fun, you had better enjoy it and you'd better give it all you've got. Otherwise you'll regret it. And I don't want to regret it.

Poll

Who was the 2009 Diamondbacks' Rookie of the Year?

Juan Gutierrez

11 votes

Trent Oeltjen

7 votes

Gerardo Parra

89 votes

Rusty Ryal

2 votes

Clay Zavada

20 votes

129 votes | Poll has closed

This week in AZ baseball: Webb returns, the 2010 roster takes shape, and an AFL Gameday Thread

Jim McLennan — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:30:28 -0000

Didn't bother doing one of these last weekend, as there really wasn't enough to justify it. Not the case at all today, with a lot of contract news following the end of the World Series, and as a result we can see the first signs of the roster for next season taking place. Or, at least, cross some names off the potential candidates' list, anyway. Today is also the Arizona Fall League All-Star game out in Surprise, with first pitch at 6:15 pm. It's going to be televised, both on the MLB Network and free at mlb.com, so this post will also be the Gameday Thread for that event.

Details of that, analysis of the roster moves, an update on the latest numbers by Diamondbacks in winter ball and more, after the jump.

While no surprise, the big news is, of course, that Brandon Webb will be pitching for the Diamondbacks in 2010, after the team exercised their option. Everyone concerned seemed upbeat at the news, our ace saying, "I was hoping that they would. I was just waiting for the phone call. It was up in the air for a while and rightfully so, it was a big question mark for a while, but I've bounced back really well and am feeling good and I'm happy I'll be back next year." His agent - and one-time SnakePit poster! - Jonathan Maurer added, "We've said from Day 1 that Brandon is very happy with the Diamondbacks and our preference was to remain in Arizona. We would love to work out something long term, but we will just take this year and see how it plays out." Webb concurs: "Hopefully it goes well for both of us and we can maybe start some talks, if everything goes well, toward the end of next year."

Three months after the surgery in early August, Webb will be doing a little gentle soft-toss next week to end his season, before then closing things down and eventually beginning his usual build-up towards spring training and, all going well, Opening Day. He sounded fairly confident he'll be the same pitcher he was: "Even when I was throwing and I was still having some pain, the life on the ball was still there. I can't be too sure, but I'm pretty sure I'll always probably have that sinking action, because that's just how my arm action is, it allows the ball to do that." I certainly hope so: Webb without his sinker...why, that'd be like Lincecum without a pipe in his mouth.

Brandon may be coming back, but there are a lot of Diamondbacks who apparently won't be - though again, none of the news on that front was massively unexpected. On the pitching front, Doug Davis and Scott Schoeneweis filed for free-agency, while Daniel Cabrera declined his assignment to Reno and became a free agent too. Yusmeiro Petit was taken from Arizona on waivers by the Mariners - likely a better location for the fly-ball prone Petit Unit., and our colleague on Lookout Landing are quite excited. The trio accounted for almost one-third of our starts last season (34 for Davis, 17 for Petit, one for Cabrera), and means the competition for the fifth spot next year is currently down to Billy Buckner, Bryan Augenstein and Kevin Mulvey, with the first-named the favorite at this point. Doug Slaten was also picked up off waivers, by Washington.

On the position player front, we say a poignant farewell to Chad Tracy, whose 2010 option was bought out by the Diamondbacks. Only two players - Luis Gonzales and Steve Finley - have played more games in an Arizona jersey than Chad, who appeared 704 times for Arizona over six seasons. His career line with the team was decent, at .280/.339/.453, for a .792 OPS, but since returning from knee surgery, his output has slumped. Chad's numbers against left-handed pitching were particularly poor, helping to make the decision to decline his $7m option relatively easy. Also possibly on the way out are Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen, moves intended to relieve the impending crush in the 2010 outfield.

Good article in the Republic today on how the economic downturn is hitting all valley sports teams, not just the Diamondbacks. "Every professional sports team in metro Phoenix, along with Arizona State University's football team and the annual Fiesta Bowl, has had trouble selling tickets this year... Teams have been forced to try promotions once considered unthinkable as the drop in attendance cuts deeper into revenue and costs jobs.." Said Jerry Colangelo: "I have been here over 40 years, and this is the worst it has ever been." Other points of interest with regard to the local franchises:

The Suns streak of home sellouts ended this month and the team just laid off about 10% of employees.
The Coyotes have the lowest average crowd in the NHL, attracting just 5,855 for Monday's game. [There's also an article on whether Phoenix might be better served by minor-league hockey]
The NFC champion Cardinals have needed an extension for all but one of their home games, to avoid them being blacked out on TV.

Time for an update on our winter league ball-players, starting with Conor Jackson in the Dominican. If he's still not showing much power - one home-run in fourteen games - he's still getting on base with impressive frequency: he has an OBP of .523, thanks in part to a K:BB ratio of 14:9. Conor's batting .364 and has stolen six bases in six attempts. Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen are also hitting above .350 in Venezuela and Mexico, but since they are potenially going to be ex-Diamondbacks in the near future, I'm not going to look too hard there. The potential 2010 right-side of our infield continues to struggle: Tony Abreu has a .640 OPS in the Dominican, while Brandon Allen is hitting only .162 in the traditionally-hitter friendly AFL. Allen's 19 walks do lead the league, however.

On the pitching front, Tom Layne is the only one of the four in the AFL making a good impression. He has allowed two earned runs in 9.1 innings of work, on seven hits and four walks, with ten strikeouts. Bryan Augenstein has pitched the same number of innings, but allowed fifteen hits, leading to seven earned rusn. That's still better than Cesar Valdez, who has wobbled his way to an 11.25 ERA in eight innings. Intriguing line from the Dominican, where Jordan Norberto has nine strikeouts in five innings: while he's allowed five runs, only one has been earned. Scott Patterson has been working well in Venezuela: in 5.1 innings, he has given up three hits and a walk, with six K's.

Speaking of the AFL, today is the Rising Stars game at Surprise, where 50 of the best and brightest major-league baseball has to offer will go head to head. The only Diamondback taking part will be Allen, but it'll be almost your last chance to see live baseball from inside the United States until next March, so I fully intend to take advantage. As mentioned, the game is on both the MLB Network, and streaming for free at mlb.com, so there's no excuse not to be watching this one - and commenting in this thread. [I'll be here, just a little late, as we've got to have dinner first]

The scheduled starting pitchers are both 2009 frst-round draft picks - Desert Dogs right-hander Stephen Strasburg was #1 and Atlanta left-hander Mike Minor was #7. Be my first chance to see the much-vaunted Strasburg in action. Per Red Reign in the comments, looks like Strasburg has been scratched from the game with a strained neck. Probably injured it lugging his bonus to the bank.

Finally, Clay Zavada had his number, #35, retired by Illinois Valley Community College on Thursday. He pitched there in 2003 and 2004, and is the first alumni of the institution to reach the majors in its 85-year history. Around 200 replica handlebar mustaches were handed out for the ceremony, at half-time in a basketball game at the college in Oglesby. "It couldn’t happen to a better kid," said IVCC athletic director Tommy Canale. "He’s really had some tough tribulations in his life and he fought through that." Hear, hear.

The 2009 'Pitties: Game of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:00:35 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Gerardo Parra tried to dodge a pounding after a walk-off hit in the 10th inning against the Dodgers on August 15th.

View full size photo »

Not quite as close a poll for the second of the 2009 'Pitties. The B-bullpen of Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada and Leo Rosales swept majestically to a collective victory, for their nine innings of no-hit ball in the marathon against the Padres. The same game is also nominated in this week's category.

One of the good things about baseball having a 162-game schedule is that, even in a disappointing year like the Diamondbacks experienced in 2009, there will still be contests which we remember with great fondness [contrast any 'Game of the Year' poll for the Detroit Lions last season, which I imagine made kinda wretched reading...] Arizona still won 70 games, and included among them were blowouts, squeakers, comebacks, slugfests, pitching duels and marathons.

After the jump, you'll find our selection of the five best games of the 2009 season described in detail - the link goes to the recap of the contest in question.

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

Only twice since 2002 has the team scored a dozen or more and shutout the opposition - oddly, both times were against the Braves. Here, a 12-0 victory was important, not just for the offensive outburst, but because it gave Max Scherzer his first career win, in his fourteenth start. However, it was only late on that it became a sure thing: when he was lifted for a PH in the seventh, after six innings of four-hit ball, it was only 3-0 to Arizona. However, the offense then piled onto the Atlanta bullpen, tagging them fror nine earned runs over the final seven outs, capped by Chris Snyder's grand-slam in the ninth. This was the largest winning margin for the Diamondbacks since 2006.
May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

Arizona had more than their fair share of opposition recoveries inflicted on them in 2009 (44 blown leads in all, ahead only of Washington in the NL), but this was our biggest comeback of the year. We trailed the A's 5-1 going into the eighth, having been stifled by, of all people, former D-back Edgar Gonzalez. However, another ex-Arizonan, veteran Russ Springer, was tagged for three runs without retiring a batter, and we tied things up on a two-run Chad Tracy double. We scored three times in the 11th, but Chad Qualls made it interesting, allowing two runs to score and putting the tying run on third with one out. A ground-ball double-play allowed him and Arizona to escape, 8-7.
June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

I think the fangraph is all we need here, as we blew a 6-0 lead, allowing five runs in the ninth, then traded zeroes with San Diego until the 18th, where Mark Reynolds' three-run shot off a utility infielder won it for the Diamondbacks, five hours and 45 minutes after the first pitch. Madness? This is Petco!
August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

Jonathan Broxton came into the ninth with 25 saves in 29 opportunities, and having allowed just two home runs in his previous 97 innings, going all the way back to June 2008. With a 3-1 lead - Hiroki Kuroda having out-duelled Doug Davis - things looked bleak for the home outfit, especially after Gerardo Parra's K reduced our WP to 5%. However, Mark Reynolds then deposited the first delivery he saw into the bleachers, and three pitches later, Miguel Montero followed suit, tying the game up. Parra then redeemed himself, driving in the winning run with one down in the bottom of the tenth, sealing the Diamondbacks' first series victory over the Dodgers for more than a year.
August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

Seven shutout innings from Jon Garland - not just his best start in a Diamondbacks' jersey, but also his last before getting traded to LA. Mark Reynolds became the first Arizona batter since 2001 to hit forty home-runs in a season. And Justin Upton hit his 21st blast, four days after no longer being 21 himself. On Luis Gonzalez Appreciation Day and in front of the fourth-biggest home crowd of the year to that point, the D-backs rolled to a 9-0 win over the Astros. This was SnakePitFest 2: Clay Zavada pitched a scoreless eighth in front of the mustached ranks of the Zavada Brigade and team president Derrick Hall stopped by to say hello. Yeah, not too bad a day, all told...

Poll

What was the Game of the Year for the Diamondbacks in 2009?

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

5 votes

May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

13 votes

June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

25 votes

August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

14 votes

August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

10 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 'Pitties: Single-game Performance of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:18:48 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Petit tallies up the hits by Pittsburgh. He looks almost as startled as we were by the answer.

Browse more photos »

The first 'Pittie of the 2009 season proved to be one of the closest ballots in the history of the awards, with four of the options for Play of the Year each receiving between 19-24% of the vote, and the top two choices being tied as late as Wednesday afternoon, when 130 votes had been cast. However, the final few votes meant that the Play of the Year goes to the Triple-Play against the Dodgers. Josh Wilson's time with Arizona may have been short - only 11 games - but between this and his turn on the mound, it certainly had its share of memorable moments!

We now move on to the second category. After the jump, we'll revisit the five best single-game performances of the 2009 season by a Diamondback - and also see why, curiously, Roger Cedeno is connected to more than one of them! The links in the header go to the game recap, in a new browser window, so you can relive the performance there when considering your vote.

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine straight frames, June 7 vs. SDP
This game was nearly an awful example of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Leading 6-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls allowed five runs to blow the game. In extra innings, the offense didn't help, being blanked for eight straight frames before Mark Reynolds homered off pinch-pitcher Josh Wilson in the 18th. But fortunately for Arizona, Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada + Leo Rosales were magnificent, allowing no hits from the 10th through the 18th, effectively pitching a no-hit complete game. Rosales finally got the win, retiring the last ten Padres.
Dan Haren goes fishing for Marlins, July 10 vs. FLA
The best-pitched game of the season by a Diamondback, as measured by Game Score, was Dan Haren's complete-game shutout of Florida just before the All-Star break [Haren had #2 and #3 on the list too]. It was also tied for the eighth-best Game Score in the National League this season. The four-hit gem featured one walk and ten strikeouts. After a single and wild pitch to lead off the game, the Marlins managed to get only one other runner past first-base the rest of the way. Haren also added a hit, driving in a run with an infield single in the fourth, and came around to score on a home-run by Felipe Lopez.

Yusmeiro Petit takes no-hitter into 8th inning, August 4 vs. PIT
Just for comparison, I don't think Brandon Webb has ever had a no-hitter through five innings, let alone allowing zero hits through the front seven. Of all the D-backs pitchers, you'd have got long odds against Petit coming closer to a no-hitter than anyone since the Big Unit's perfect game in 2004. But he completely blanked the Pirates offense, giving up only three walks before Roger Cedeno singled with no outs in the eighth. Petit retired the next three batters to finish strong, with eight shutout innings and threw 108 pitches, a dozen more than in any major-league game for his career.

Chris Young smacks three homers in a game, September 6 vs. COL
With homers in the second, sixth and eighth, Young became the eighth Diamondbacks to homer three times in a game. It was a startling performance as he'd only had two long balls in his previous fifty appearances combined, going all the way back to June 13th. According to Hit Tracker Online, the home-runs totaled 1,252 feet, almost a quarter-mile. Chris had a chance to go deep again in the ninth against Matt Herges, but the Rockies' hurler walked Young instead - not often you'll see a home pitcher being greeted with disapproval by the crowd for not giving up a home-run!
Justin Upton goes 5-for-5, September 16 vs. SDP
Upton became the 13th Diamondbacks to collect five hits in a game, and the first to do it on the road since Danny Bautista in April 2004 - that he did it in one of the most hitter-unfriendly parks in the league, Petco, makes the feat all the more impressive. He doubled in the first, singled in the fourth, and tripled in the sixth, giving him two chances at the cycle, but could 'only' single in the seventh and ninth. Just two players younger than Upton have gone 5-for-5 in a game, since Cal Ripken did it as a 21-year old in 1982 (Alex Rodriguez and Cedeno - yep, him again! - both in 1996).

Poll

What was the best single-game performance for Arizona in 2009?

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine innings

38 votes

Haren's complete-game shutout of the Marlins

18 votes

Petit takes no-hitter of the Pirates into 8th

20 votes

Young hits three homers vs. the Rockies

13 votes

Upton goes 5-for-5 against the Padres

12 votes

101 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part V: The Bullpen

Jim McLennan — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 20:15:35 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Somehow, this pic - Qualls yelling to the bench for help after hurting his knee against Houston - sums up the bullpen's entire season...

Browse more photos »

The Arizona bullpen allowed 271 runs and finished the season with a 4.61 ERA, both numbers which put them ahead only of Washington among National League relief corps. We've previously discussed the waking nightmare which was the eighth inning, but it's also worth taking a look at the numbers posted by the bullpen in general. How do they stack up in total? What were the issues? How might things have gone, and where do we go from here?

FIP vs. ERA
On straight ERA, as noted above, our relievers were pretty bad, even when you adjust for park factor. However, the underlying performance numbers weren't quite as horrendous. Arizona relievers had a combined line of .264/.338/.395, which is an sOPS+ of only 101, not too much worse than average. Fangraphs.com's FIP stat goes even further: the D-backs FIP was 4.02 - sixth-best in the league - with the biggest gap between that and 'actual' ERA of any team in the National League. This explains why they rated our pen at 36.1 runs above replacement, not just above average, but very close to the number (39.4) posted by the "lights out" 2007 bullpen.

The only two relievers with 10+ innings, to have a FIP higher than their ERA were Clay Zavada (FIP 3.92) and Blaine Boyer (3.34), both of which make sense. Zavada certainly benefited from the lucky scoreless streak which opened his career - his ERA the rest of the way was 5.34. And Boyer is obviously not the 2.68 ERA pitcher he was with Arizona: if he was anything like that, the Cardinals wouldn't have dumped him. Still, even if they deliver their FIP numbers in 2010, I don't think we'll mind too much. The other eight relievers all had FIP better than their ERA, the amount ranging from 0.07 (yeah, Scott Schoeneweis was as bad as he looked) to 1.06 for Juan Gutierrez.

There are various reasons why FIP can differ. It's based purely on home-runs, strikeouts and walks: you might think, "Hang on - the number of hits that stay in the park is irrelevant?" But the problem there, is that those do depend on the defense, so are not a good measure of pitching ability. I'll go into more detail about our glovework in the final part of this series, but Arizona's defensive efficiency - the percentage of balls turned into outs - was below average. If it seems counter-intuitive that you put H, K and HR into a mathematical blender and get a number that means anything, studies have shown that FIP is a better indicator of future performance than ERA.

Win Probability
However, the Hardball Times Win Probability Added is less convinced, saying our relievers cost Arizona 2.81 wins, this year ahead only of Pittsburgh and Washington. This is the same Win Probability we graph after every game; the winning team has 0.5 of a win to divide up, and the losers -0.5 blame. Over the entire season, our hitters "cost" Arizona 6.53 wins, and our starting pitching 1.67. [The total, not by coincidence, is 11, the number we were below .500] However, you should remember the value of a performance is radically dependent on when it happens. As Dave Studeman points out, "If a player hits a home run in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, he is credited with more WPA points than if he hits a home run in the first inning of a 1-0 game."

The late innings will tend to have more leverage as a result, though given the bullpen threw about half the innings of the starters, to be "responsible" for more losses than the rotation isn't good. Still, the implication is that the offense was a bigger problem for the team in 2009 than the pitching in total. For context, it 2008, the bullpen WPA was -1.16 wins and in 2007, it was a stunning +7.48 victories. This is likely a reflection of the huge number of close contests in which that team was involved. Almost one-third (52) were decided by one-run, and when you get into the late innings of such games, every out has a very significant impact on Win Probability.

Was the bullpen overtaxed?
Not apparently. The average team saw 2,184 PAs dealt with by their relievers last season; Arizona saw fractionally less than that, at 2,122 - it clearly helped to have one of the most durable starters in the league, in Dan Haren, whose IP/start was 6.95, fourth-best in the league. Jon Garland (6.18, 24th) and Doug Davis (5.98, 34th) were also above the NL-average of 5.82. The Diamondbacks were also the least-likely team to use a reliever on back-to-back days: this happened only 80 times, the most common subjects being Gutierrez and Rauch, each eleven times. However, the results of such outings were good, with a 3.67 ERA.

The only reliever who worked more than 55 innings for the Diamondbacks was Gutierrez, who threw 71 innings [Rauch and Tony Peña were both around the same for the year, combining the totals for their two teams], which was not enough to put him among the top thirty 'pure' relievers in the majors. By appearances, his 65 games was only ranked #70, though Rauch ended up =13th by that metric. Arizona were right in the middle of the pack with regard to asking our relievers to get more than three outs too, so overall, workload doesn't appear to have been much of an issue for the bullpen as a whole.

Inherited issues
What did seem to be a problem was the bullpen's problem with inherited runners. Across the league, 30% of inherited runners scored, but for the Diamondbacks' relievers, that number was 38%, the worst figure in the NL. Only two relievers were below league average, and that fractionally: Scott Schoeneweis and Leo Rosales both came in at 29%, and the brevity of the former's appearances were likely a factor. From there, things only get worse, all the way up to Blaine Boyer (8 of 17 inherited runners scored, 47%) and Daniel Schlereth (7 of 12, 58%). Obviously, while we are talking small sample size here, and not all inherited runners are created equal, the overall numbers are significant enough to indicate a problem.

The Arizona bullpen: anti-clutch in action
A major driving factor in a pitcher's ERA will be how they perform with runners in scoring position - as we saw with Doug Davis this year, you can get away with allowing a lot of base-runners, as long as you don't let them get past third-base. This was something our bullpen didn't do last season. The Diamondbacks' OPS for their relievers across all situations in 2009 was .734: they can be divided into three groups by their performance with runners in scoring position (min. 30 such PAs):

    Significantly better: Leo Rosales (.653), Tony Peña (.655), Esmerling Vasquez (.686)
    There or thereabouts: Chad Qualls (.728), Juan Gutierrez (.730),
    Significantly worse: Blaine Boyer (.779), Jon Rauch (.853), Clay Zavada (.959), Scott Schoeneweis (1.078), Daniel Schlereth (1.192)

This would explain the high ERA; not just the raw number of pitchers, but the disparity. We had four relievers whose OPS was 100 points or more worse than bullpen average, when they had runners in scoring position, compared to none who were that much better. Avoiding such a skewed result in 2010 will certainly help. Harder to say whether it's something that can be addressed, or is just a question of waiting for regression to the mean.

What might have been
The front-office got criticism for letting Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz walk at the end of 2008, and it's fair to say that the arms they brought to Arizona instead, Schoeneweis and Tom Gordon, were dismal failures. Admittedly, the former's problema could in no way have been foreseen, and completely derailed the year. Before his wife's death, Scott had an ERA of 2.53; after, it exploded to 10.80. But in the final analysis, he is just another in a long line of disappointing LOOGY's brought in by the team: see also Randy Choate, Mike Myers, Eddie Oropesa, etc. Since Myers in 2002, no free-agent southpaw reliever has had an ERA+ above 100 for Arizona.

Gordon was a low-risk roll of the die, but even at that, it must have been disappointing to get no more than 1.2 innings and a 21.60 ERA from the veteran. He only cost $600K, but one assumes the budget included the maximum Gordon may have earned, $3m. Between the price of him and Schoeneweis ($2m), the team could certainly have done better. Looing at the players we let go, Juan Cruz signed a two-year, $6m contract with the Royals, but had an ERA of 5.72, with a strikeout rate almost cut in half (from 12.4 K/9 to 6.4). Allowing Cruz to walk now seems wise, and Kansas City will be hoping for much better in 2010.

At first glance, Brandon Lyon was excellent with the Tigers, holding opponents to a .205 average and posting a 2.86 ERA, that seemed to justify fully his $4m deal, and likely sets him up for a big pay-day this winter. However, Lyon did have a freakishly-low BABIP of .229, leading to a FIP above four - the difference put him in the top 20 among major-league relievers. Still, signing him for $4m and getting anything like his actual performance would have been a much better deal for Arizona than Gordon and Schoeneweis.

2010?
From statements so far, it does appear that one or more arms will be added to the bullpen in the off-season. We'll be discussing this in more detail in due course, but I imagine the core is alreay present, in Qualls, Gutierrez, Vasquez and Zavada. Boyer and Schlereth would also seem to have a potential role, though use of the latter in high-leverage situations still concerns me. I still wouldn't mind us spending $5 million or so of the estimated $28m available on a couple of decent arms: I think "reliable" is the key-word there. Rather than us taking a risk on anyone like Gordon, we want someone who we know will contribute.

The last installment of this series will follow, probably next Monday. There, we'll be looking at defense and base-running, and their impact on the team's performance last season.

The Good, The Bad, and The Hopeful - A 2009 Retrospective, Part 2

snakecharmer — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:00:23 -0000

I was very fortunate last week in San Francisco to get a chance to talk with Fox Sports and Diamondbacks television broadcaster Daron Sutton. I emailed some of the same questions to KTAR radio broadcaster Greg Schulte and MLB.com beat writer Steve Gilbert. This is Part 2 of my review of the season from the eyes of these members of the press. Part 1 of my 2009 retrospective with Daron Sutton and Greg Schulte began in Spring Training. The Diamondbacks got off to a difficult start to the season and would never fully turn their season around. Brandon Webb's injury, Chris Young's season-long slump, and 120 8th-inning runs allowed were some of the many disappointments. Daron Sutton discussed the great communication gap between new manager A.J. Hinch and the players, and Steve Gilbert pointed out that many of the players were less thrilled with the replacement, which got in the way of their performance.

But the Diamondbacks’ 2009 season was not all for naught. 2009 saw the emergence of a lot of rookies, guys who were further down on the depth charts to start the year, yet have shown they are here to stay. "I remember Matt Williams approaching me in Spring Training," Daron Sutton retold, "saying, boy, this guy could be and should be some day a center fielder every day for the Diamondbacks. Matt turned out to be really prophetic. To be in the top two or three all year long in RBI when you get here in May, I think he’s the one guy that jumps out to me." Greg Schulte agrees. "[Parra’s] rookie numbers were impressive, among the best in the National League. He should receive Rookie of the Year votes. And Ryan Roberts made the club out of Spring Training and put together a good rookie year."

Schulte also praises the bullpen’s potential for next year. "Rookie relievers Juan Gutierrez and Esmerling Vasquez both had bright moments in their first seasons in the majors. Both were starters in the minors and made nice transitions as relievers. Rookie lefties Clay Zavada and Daniel Schlereth both had their moments. Schlereth showed a glimmer of what he can become with a particular September outing against the Rockies (two innings, 16 pitches, 14 strikes). There are some good young arms in the pen." Gilbert added that Zavada was a real pleasure to watch. “It was great to see the joy that Clay Zavada brought to the ballpark each and every day. He’s a guy that is grateful for every day he’s in the big leagues and he pitches with no fear.”

Some "veterans" had good seasons this year too, Schulte pointed out. "Catcher Miguel Montero excelled offensively when given a chance to play every day and provided offensive firepower as a middle-of-the-order guy. Justin Upton hit over .300 much of the season. Dan Haren was a 14-game winner, but would have won more with a little more run support, and Chad Qualls handled the closer role well." Gilbert echoed the praises of Miguel Montero. "How can you not like Miguel Montero? He is always smiling and to see him finally break through at the big league level was pretty cool."

Sutton said one of the more positive big-picture things for him this season was the power of Mark Reynolds. He chased Albert Pujols for the home run title through the dog days of summer, and he did it off the aces of the league. "From kicking Zach Greinke’s tail to Felix Hernandez, your 1-and-2 American League Cy Young candidates, he took them out of the yard." According to Hit Tracker Online, Reynolds also had some of the longest home runs of the year, and had the longest average distance of any player. Sutton also mentioned some specific games. "My favorite game was the 18-inning game in San Diego. I loved who they were about, I loved that a lot of the "bullpen scrubs" were given the opportunity and pitched 9 no-hit innings, I loved what that game was all about. I liked Dan Haren’s start heading into the All-Star Game when he was trying to determine if he was going to be the starter. He threw a complete game shutout, something that he rarely does. So those are two that really jump out at me as special victories."

As special as those victories were, they were few and far between. The Diamondbacks ended the 2009 campaign with 70 victories, last in the NL West and third-last in the National League as a whole. There is a lot of work to be done this off-season. The three needs that everyone mentioned are the starting rotation, the bullpen, and the offense. "If Brandon Webb is healthy, if they know enough, they have to pick up his option. That’s #1," says Sutton. "If they can get from May to the end of the season out of him, that’s #1." Gilbert agrees that the rotation is a priority. "They need to add another starter that can fill the No. 3 or 4 spot in the rotation. If you've got Buckner, Mulvey, Augenstein, Valdez, Petit, etc. competing for the No. 5 spot in the rotation next spring, I think you’re in good shape. But if you’ve got those guys competing for two spots, then it gets a little dicey." The bullpen also needs a lot of work. Says Sutton, "They really need a veteran relief presence down there. I look and I see San Francisco, who hung in it longer than many thought, and a big part of it to me is Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt. Those guys down there – and it costs money, now I’m spending my team’s money – but those guys and the presence they provided, I think a guy or two like that is just so important for the bullpen to shore everything up. And then this club needs to figure out who their second baseman is. Is it Ryan Roberts? Are they going to go make a bold and dramatic trade? Maybe go get a JJ Hardy from Milwaukee? I’m not sitting here saying it shouldn’t be Ryan Roberts, but I don’t know that yet. If there’s a better option, then they need to find what that is."

Sutton, Schulte and Gilbert all point out the other major performance gaffe that needs to improve – defense. "There were way too many errors during 2009, especially in the outfield," said Schulte. "The Diamondbacks gave up way too many unearned runs." Diamondbacks pitchers officially allowed 66 unearned runs, but that doesn’t account for runs and base runners due to overall poor play. “Whether it’s an actual error, or throwing to the wrong base or a mental mistake, there were just too many of them and it really cost them this year,” said Gilbert. Sutton added, "I think just execution of everything is a big part of it. I need to see defensively, Justin more accountable, and Miguel Montero, I need more out of him defensively. Those are two guys that could really help you."

At the end of the season, yes, everybody is disappointed with the outcome of 2009. The Diamondbacks players have a lot they need to work on, and the front office has quite a few holes to fill and decisions to make. But many times this year, there were glimpses of their true capabilities and glimmers of what the future might hold for Diamondbacks fans. If this team can look in the mirror and play up to its potential, the sky’s the limit.

Many thanks for those who helped make this article possible. Thank you to Daron Sutton for sitting down for a second interview with the Snakepit. My MityMic worked out perfectly for recording our chat. It was a pleasure talking baseball with you, sir! Thank you to Greg Schulte and Steve Gilbert for answering my questions via email. Many thanks to my contact who arranged the sit-down with Daron. He very kindly went out of his job description to do so! And of course thanks to Jim for letting me seek these interviews on behalf of the Snakepit.

The Good, The Bad, and The Hopeful - A 2009 Retrospective, Part 1

snakecharmer — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:56:27 -0000

As fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks, 2009 was – overall – a miserable year. After a disappointing end to 2008, we all had hopes going into Opening Day that this year’s team would do better – it had to do better. The core of the team had returned, the new additions looked promising, and we could only hope that the young players would improve in their second or third years. Unfortunately, it became clear early on that this year’s Arizona Diamondbacks were in for a long and arduous season. The Diamondbacks didn’t win their 10th game until May 1st, and they would never climb out of the hole they had dug for themselves.

In the grand scheme of things, we fans are very lucky. We’re not out on that field struggling, we’re not spending our money trying to improve the team, and we can turn off the television or radio if we so choose. But the press corps that covers the Diamondbacks day in and day out has no such sanctuary. Daron Sutton and Greg Schulte are there for every minute of every game, describing every play, good or bad, for their viewers. Steve Gilbert and Nick Piecoro not only write about every win or loss, but they also go down to the trenches and talk to reluctant players, trying to squeeze out something new and interesting to pass along to the rest of us. They see everything, more than they’re ever able to tell. How do they really feel about the Diamondbacks’ performance this season?

I was very fortunate last week in San Francisco to get a chance to talk with Fox Sports and Diamondbacks television broadcaster Daron Sutton. I emailed some of the same questions to KTAR radio broadcaster Greg Schulte and Arizona Republic beat writer Nick Piecoro for their thoughts as well. (Note: as of this publication, I had not heard back from Piecoro; I hope he will respond in time for Part 2 tomorrow.) What follows is a review of the season from the eyes of these members of the press. This is Part 1 of 2, so be sure to check back tomorrow the remaining half of this story.

Every story has a beginning, and this one starts back in Spring Training. Coming off the 2008 season that saw Arizona lead the NL West for 136 game days – that last of those on September 5th – the Diamondbacks had work to do in Spring. Gone were Gold Glove second basemen Orlando Hudson, soon-to-be-300-game-winner Randy Johnson, closer Brandon Lyon, and bullpen stalwarts Juan Cruz and Brandon Medders. Jon Rauch, Tony Peña and Chad Qualls were expected to play more important roles in the bullpen, helped along by super-veterans Scott Schoeneweis and Tom Gordon. Felipe Lopez was signed to replace Hudson at second, and the combination of free agent Jon Garland and home-grown rookie Max Scherzer rounded out the starting rotation. It was the hope that the return of Eric Byrnes from injury and the continued development of Arizona’s young core would bring the offense back to life.

But even in Spring Training, the bullpen remained a concern. "I think what we all said collectively we were most concerned about heading into the regular season, was the fact that the bullpen wasn’t as shored up as it should be," said Diamondbacks television broadcaster Daron Sutton. Radio broadcaster Greg Schulte pointed out that the bullpen roles were well known. "Chad Qualls moved into the closer’s role, with Tony Pena becoming the setup man, and Jon Rauch moving into the 7th inning role." Even discounting the struggles of Scott Schoeneweiss and the complete non-factor of Tom Gordon, "There was enough experience in the pen to make it solid," Schulte said.

But it never materialized. Brandon Webb’s injury on Opening Day threw an immediate wrench into the pitching staff. Yusmeiro Petit became Webb’s replacement, but Webb’s departure deprived the team of "anywhere from 16 to 24 wins for the season," Sutton pointed out. Tom Gordon’s injuries and Schoeneweis’s off-field tragedy led to the call-ups of rookies such as Clay Zavada and Esmerling Vasquez. Jon Rauch amassed an ERA over 7 over the first two months of the season, and Tony Peña struggled in June and was gone by the All-Star break.

The other piece of the puzzle that was missing early on in the season, and also never really materialized, was the offense. Said Schulte: "After a strong April in '08, the offense fell off considerably, and the Diamondbacks were looking to rebound with the growth of their young hitters." Justin Upton started off the year in one of the most horrendous slumps imaginable. It took eight games to get his first hit, and 18 games until his batting average raised to over .200. Everyone was screaming for his return to the minor leagues, but once he reached that .300 plateau on May 10th, he never looked back. Chris Young, however, was not so fortunate. After falling below .200 on April 30th, he hardly looked up. Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, and Eric Byrnes all hovered around the .200 line until at least June, but at least Jackson’s problems were (eventually) blamed on Valley Fever.

When asked about underperforming players, Sutton specifically mentioned Drew and Young. "The guy that I expected more from this year was Stephen Drew. I think he spoiled us last year – or did he? If I say he spoiled us, then this is the kind of player he’s supposed to be, this year. I hope he’s better than that." The same goes for Chris Young. "He’s had what he would say was a horrible season. Let’s hope that he is not that player because that’s not good enough. Hitting .230 in the big leagues every day, that’s not good enough. The days of the Gary Pettises in the outfield are long gone. You have to be able to contribute offensively."

On May 7th, the Diamondbacks lost a 1-run game in the 10th inning to San Diego. They came home from a 3-5 road trip sitting 8 ½ games out of first place with a new manager, a new hitting coach and a new pitching coach. Daron Sutton described the hard times. "I learned that when a manager gets fired, it’s really tough on everyone. I’ve never seen a distance, a communication gap, like I saw with the new manager and the current players. It was uncomfortable. The few days of struggles, I understand. We all have people that – they take care of us, now they’re gone, what’s going to happen? What followed for a few weeks after lays at the feet of those players, and only those players." It was a bold and dramatic move, one that the front office had hoped would spark some improvement. Three weeks later, the NL West rival Colorado Rockies did the same thing – and they turned it around. The Rockies were 14 games back when Jim Tracy took over for Clint Hurdle, and Tracy nearly led them to the division title. When asked about the comparison, Sutton said, "Jim Tracy had better and healthier players, and there’s just no doubt about it that they’re having better seasons. Simply put, Troy Tulowitzki this year is much better than Stephen Drew, and their outfield combination of Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez is better than Eric Byrnes/Conor Jackson/Chris Young."

With the Dodgers off to a scalding hot start – they ran an 8- and 7-game winning streak against NL West opponents in April and May – and with the Diamondbacks’ early struggles, it was clear that the team wasn’t going to be contending for the division title. But was there any point at which the team knew that this wasn’t going to be their year? A point at which all post-season hopes went out the window and they just start playing for next year? "I don’t know if there is ever a time when a roster collectively has a meeting and says, all right, we give up," says Sutton, and it would never appear publicly that any team would actually do that. But to him, it seemed like the team reached that point in early June. "The team was almost embarrassing at times in May and June. The worst game of the year for me was the Angels game (on June 28th). It was the worst inning in the worst game of the year. That inning with those errors (5 runs on 3 hits and 3 Diamondback errors in the Angels’ 5th inning) and the dropped balls... that day certainly looked like they had [given up]."

Tune in tomorrow for the second half of this story - the "hopeful" half!

Diamondbacks 12, Cubs 3: Can we play Chicago every day?

Jim McLennan — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 23:41:20 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Spookily, the number on the jersey of a Cubs outfielder and the sign in the Wrigley ivy combine to show the number of games the Cubs will play before their next World Series.

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Record: 69-91. Pace: 70-92. Change on last season: -11.

This was a game full of surprises. Not the least of which being that it was a Friday day-game, which therefore managed to get underway before any of us had noticed. I could grumble about the unnaturalness of it all, and how unfair it was for Arizona to have to play a day-game immediately after flying in from San Francisco, etc. But going by the results today, maybe we should do it more often. For the Diamondbacks' pounded out their highest number of runs on the road since June 18th, highlighted by - and you may want to sit down for this - four-hit games from Eric Byrnes (season OPS+ 57) and Chris Young (76). They combined for three homers and seventeen total bases.

Yeah, "surprising" may not quite cut it. Been a while since I've had to look that one up in the SnakePit thesaurus, but follow me after the jump for details of the arresting, distinguished, exceptional, extraordinary, impressive, noteworthy, noticeable, outstanding, phenomenal, preeminent, singular, smashing, solid, striking, super, uncommon, uncustomary, unusual, unwonted, weighty and wonderful victory.

Seems the Cubs are even keener than us for 2009 to end. The announced figure was the second-smallest crowd of the year at Wrigley - trailing only the game on Wednesday night -and BCB's Al estimated the actual number present as only 15,000. Though who can blame them, with a game-time temperature in the forties, and a firm breeze? [Yes, folks: now is the time when it's pleasant to live in our state. We finally get our reward for enduring the hell of the past four months] But it wasn't just the fans: if Arizona have mailed in performances of late, then as mentioned in the GDT, the Cubs today appeared to be using a network of bonfires, semaphore flags and galleys, having been outscored 24-5 over the past three games, all losses against the mighty powers of Arizona and Pittsburgh.

At one point, it looked like we might be on our way to the first double-digit shutout inflicted on the Cubs at Wrigley since May 2003. That wasn't to be - in part because of what can only be described as Zavada interference - but the nine runs by which we won was a margin not surpassed there since the Diamondbacks clubbed six homers during a 15-4 win in July 2006. We scored three runs before anyone even noticed - certainly, before I noticed there was a game on - thanks to a Stephen Drew single, Mark Reynolds sacrifice fly and Young solo homer. We then piled on four more in the third, Rusty Ryal unclogging the bases with a double, and scoring on a Byrnes hit.

As a general rule of thumb, I don't mind games where our Win Probability is north of 95% by the middle of the third inning, and it helped that Billy Buckner was delivering another solid outing. Through six innings, he had allowed three hits - all singles - and three walks, displaying probably the best form of the season. He tired in the seventh, giving up three straight hits including an unusual ground-rule double. While I didn't see it myself, it appears Clay Zavada was protecting a colleague as he warmed in the visitors' bullpen [which at Wrigley, is open to play, in foul territory]. A fair ball hit down the line headed towards them, and Zavada reflexively grabbed it. Two bases for everyone.

A walk to load the bases with one out signalled the end of Buckner, and it was still a quality start, even though his replacement Blaine Boyer gave up an RBI single and RBI groundout. Buckner's final line was a credible 6.1 innings of work, resulting in three earned runs on six hits and four walks, with five K's. Behind him, Boyer, Scott Schoeneweis and Zavada - pitching in front of a number of family and friends - retired the final eight batters they faced, throwing only 29 pitches. The Cubs players were clearly in no mood to hang around: hard to say which was chillier, the weather or the reception from their fans.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had continued to add on. Byrnes homered in the sixth. Ryal had a sacrifice fly in the seventh and, later that same inning, Byrnes singled in another run, making the score 10-0 at that point. Finally, with two ours in the ninth, Young singled - he needed a triple for the cycle - and Byrnes completed the rout of Chicago with another home-run. It's been a long time since Eric has his last multihomer game: the best part of three seasons, in fact, since his last came on May 30th, 2007, against Philadelphia.

Chris Young continues to smack the ball about, with four hits and a walk today. In the past month, with over 100 PA's, his line is now .299/.382/.567, with seven home-runs. That's a good month by anyone's standards, and if the tail-end of the season has had any bright-spots, today was a showcase for them. We've seen the possible resurrection of Young, and the potential conversion of Buckner into a credible member of the 2010 rotation [if he can just stretch out his stamina a little further....] Drew, returned to the two-hole, responded with three hits, and lead-off man Ryan Roberts had a couple as well.

All told, a fine performance, even against a Cubs line-up missing most of its biggest stars for one reason or another e.g. Soriano and Lee. It's been a while since the Diamondbacks have managed such a convincing victory. Indeed, the last time we won by more than three runs was SnakePitFest, thirty games ago on August 29th! Even exclusing the 2007 post-season sweep, it runs Arizona's franchise record against the Cubs since 2004 to 22-13- the best we have against any NL side. We're also the only visiting NL team with a winning record at Wrigley, having gone 22-20 lifetime there.

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Master of his domain: Billy Buckner, +13.5%
Honorable mentions: Ryal, +12.1%; Young, +10.2%
God-emperor of suck: John Hester, -1.3%

Curiously, despite a four-hit, two-homer, five RBI day, Eric Byrnes' contribution was only worth 1.8% to our Win Probability. That's because he made an out his first time up - by the time he got a hit, we were already six runs up, and there was only about 5% of Win Probability left to be earned over the entire rest of the game. Seemed to be some technical difficulties in the GDT: it never auto-refreshed for me at all. This and the unexpectedly early start may help explain the low turnout: 177 comments, among 15 people. I pipped pygalgia, and we were the only people to pass twenty. Also present, however: kishi, snakecharmer, GuruB, piratedan7, older fart, Turambar, 4 Corners Fan, AJforAZ, hotclaws, soco, emilylovesthedbacks, asteroid and Wailord.

Think I just might watch the replay of this one tonight, and amaze Mrs. SnakePit with my astute predictions of good games for Byrnes and Young... Right up until she starts to wonder why it's still daylight in Chicago!

Diamondbacks 4, Giants 8: Arizona endures Panda-monium in San Francisco

Jim McLennan — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 06:15:07 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Miggy suggests to Doug, that he might pitch better if he wasn't covering up one eye.

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Record: 68-89. Pace. 70-92. Change on last season: -11.

A chilly night at the end of September by the bay. Not the kind of night where the ball carries at Twitter Park, the heavy sea-air holding it in like the blanket sported by many in the crowd. Well, the ball didn't seem to get the message: the teams combined to leave the yard six times - and there's a good case to be argued that it was actually seven. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks only managed four hits that didn't lead to trotting round the basepaths. The Giants felt no such limitation, their last in the league offense pounding Doug Davis into an early departure, and knocking out a total of 22 baserunners.

SF #3/4: 8-for-10, six runs, six RBI
AZ #3/4: 1-for-7, two runs, one RBI
Any questions?

Never a good sign when the bullpen is warming up in the first inning. But that's what happened tonight, Yusmeiro Petit sent jogging to the mound after Davis walked three consecutive batters - that and a wild pitch helped to give the Giants a 2-0 lead. Fortunately, former Diamondback-killer Randy Winn - a mantle now completey pwned, as the kids say, by Pablo 'Ninja Turtle' Sandoval - helped Doug out, swinging at the first pitch he saw, Doug's 38th, and flew out harmlessly to Justin Upton in right. Things didn't get much better for Davis in the second, as he hit the pitcher (hitting 2-for-38 with 26 Ks) and after a total of 60 pitches, had only got four outs. Fortunately, Michelangelo hit #61 into a double-play. Davis loaded the bases again in the third, and escape damage.

The Diamondbacks, however, tied things up at two in the fourth...then they didn't. Miguel Montero made it a one-run game with his 15th home-run of the year, and it looked like Ryan Roberts had gone back-to-back. Torres, in LF made a leaping grab, and lost his glove, but the ball somehow - the details remain vague even on multiple viewings - bounced back into play and into the grasp of a now-horizontal outfielder. Roberts, meanwhile, continued around the base-paths and crossed home. On video review - the fourth such in, what, barely a week for AZ - the official ruling was a ground-rule double. Note: not a double. And that doesn't make sense to me: if it didn't leave the park, then Roberts touched all four bases and scored on an inside-the-park homer, while Torres waved the ball about in the outfield.

Judging by the way the Gameday Thread completely imploded, from roughly that point on, I think the ruling was taken as proof that the baseball gods had abandoned us. We had rampant image posting, a discussion of Windows Vista, far too many bears and even a meta-discussion of off-topic discussions. Doug Davis chipped in by letting the Giants take a 4-1 lead, allowing another home-run, and then leaving, haven taken 107 pitches to get through four innings, on seven hits and five walks. A WHIP of 3.000 is not exactly what we had hoped for - the Giants will be sorry to see the back of Davis, with a 5.11 ERA in his six starts against them this year.

Meanwhile, Montero was doing to the Giants what Raphael had done to us all season [his 7th-inning homer meant he is hitting .509 against the D-backs in 2009, 27-for-53. I blame, completely, all the bear talk in the thread. You know who you are]. Having narrowly missed a McCovey Cove homer in the fourth, he made no mistake in the sixth, getting the third multi-homer game of his career, giving him 16 on the season [I was stunned to see former D-backs catcher Rod Barajas has hit 19 homers for Toronto? In five years here, his high was three] Augie Ojeda was the only other Arizona hitter to reach more than once, though Justin Upton launched his 26th long ball baywards in the eighth.

Stephen Drew continues to be a Gurgling Vortex of Suck when facing left-handed pitching. He was 0-for-4 tonight, making him 3-for-43 with a walk against LHP since August 17th. Batting .178 against them this year, it's proving a flaw in his game that's a lot harder to overlook when he's no longer hitting .300 off right-handed pitchers, like he did last season. If he's going to play next season, then we may need to find a platoon partner who can take some of the LHP AB's at shortstop. He's hardly alone in having had a poor September though: offensively, it's been the team's worst since April, and if we don't score three times tomorrow, our runs/game figure for the month will be the lowest of the year.

The bullpen didn't exactly help, matching Davis by allowing four runs over four innings of work, on a total of eight hits and two walks. Leo Rosales and Daniel Cabrera were the better half, each producing scoreless frames: Yusmeiro Petit managed that in the fifth, but then gave up a run without recording an out in the sixth. Most of the damage, however, was done in a three-run seventh against Clay Zavada, which included two home-runs. His ERA on the year is now a season-high 3.42, and his second-half number is a not-so impressive 4.81. The league seems to be adjusting better to Zavada, then Zavada is to the league.

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Master of his domain: Miguel Montero, +24.1%
God-emperor of suck: Doug Davis, -22.2%
Dishonorable mention: Yusmeiro Petit, -10.2%

There was a Gameday Thread. That's all I want to say: it was like a bad day at GLB. Tomorrow, we send Kevin Mulvey to the mound against Brad Penny. Yeah: I'm really looking forward to that one. In one of the less-impressive scheduling decisions by Fox Sports Arizona, that game will be televised, but Thursday afternoon's contest between Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren is not going to be screened at all in Arizona, not even on delay. I know these things are arranged in advance - but I also know they can be changed. Shame they weren't, and so we won't get to see our ace's last start of the season.