SB Nation - Carlos Fisher

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

That's a mistranslation of the Bible. Jesus actually wore a Carpenter jersey. Reds lose 13-0.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 20:44:14 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Laugh it up, chucklehead. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Chris Carpenter. Not only did Carpenter pitch five innings of shutout ball, not only did he allow a mere three hits, not only did he strike out six, but he also went 2-3 with 6 RBI, including a grand slam. Albert who?!

Key Plays

Kip Wells pitched a scoreless first inning.
Chris Carpenter hit a grand slam in the second. That's about as key a play as there is. When you give up a home run to the pitcher, it's bad. When it's his first home run of his career, it's bad. When it's with the bases loaded, it's bad.
Kip Wells gave up five runs, Micah Owings gave up four runs, Carlos Fisher gave up three runs, and li'l Danny Ray Herrera only gave up the one.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

After some whinging by the Cardinals after their loss last night, a beanball fest seemed inevitable. Scott Rolen and Juan Francisco got plunked for the good guys, while Kip Wells hit Brendan Ryan, one of the few Cardinals not hitting Kip Wells.
The last Cardinals pitcher to hit a grand slam was Kent Mercker in 1998.
The Reds only had five hits, but Adam Rosales had two of them. Their only extra base hit came courtesy of Micah Owings.
El Nino Destructor has a .500 OBP. Sustainability, schmustainability, that's just fun!
Chris Carpenter is really good when it comes to facing the Reds. Entering this game, he had a 0.846 WHIP against them, the second lowest of any team he's faced more than once. And now, it's a little bit closer to the 0.838 he has against Tampa Bay.

Farmers Only: That's All, Folks!

BK — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 11:00:29 -0000

Labor Day means that most of the minor league teams are done for the year, with one still going on and one team in the playoffs. Let's go over some highlights of the long weekend, and see what's ahead.

Louisville closed out their season by winning 3 of thelr last 4. Highlights included a combined 7-hit game from Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco, a 5-inning shutout relief outing by Lee Tabor, a 9 strikeout start by Ben Jukich, 3-hit games by Jay Bruce and Ryan Hanigan, 7 shutout innings by Sam Lecure, and another 2-hit game by Jay Bruce. Bruce was 5-for-18 and Hanigan was 7-for-18 on their rehab stints. Up next: Obviously the big news is that the Bats are the sole team in the Reds organization to make their playoffs this year. They'll take on the Durham Bulls (TB) in a 5-game series, starting Wednesday in Durham. They'll play at least one game in Louisville on Friday night, so if you're so inclined, come on down and see a playoff game. Slyde and I will be there, so come say hello.
Carolina also won 3 of their final 4, but finished 11 games back in their division at 28-42 in the second half. Some highlights of their weekend: 2 hits and a homer by Yonder Alonso, a 3-for-3 game from Alonso, and 7 shutout innings by Jerry Gil (!). Yonder has been hitting .412 over his last 10 games, and is rumored to be joining Louisville for their playoff run.
Sarasota finished dead last in their division at 26-43 in the second half, but won 2 of their final 3 games. Lance Janke had a 1-run, 7 inning outing, Carlos Fisher had a perfect inning of work, Neftali Soto had a 2-hit game, Denis Phipps had a 3-hit game with a HR, Curtis Partch pitched 7 shutout innings, Jordan Wideman had a 3-hit game, and Matt Fairel finished his season with 8 shutout innings.
Dayton lost 3 of their last 4 to finish out their year. Highlights include another good start by Chase Ware, a homer by Josh Fellhauer, and a 3-hit night by Carlos Mendez. The Dragons finish out the second half at 31-38, 17.5 games out of first.
Billings will continue their season until the end of this week.

As this is the last Farmers Only column of the season, I'd like to thank all you people for putting up with me and reading. nycredsfan and I have a lot planned for the offseason, and we'll still continue to cover Louisville's playoff run (including live updates from Friday night's game) and finish up the Billings season. The minor league season really doesn't end. Next comes the Arizona Fall League!

Dozens thrill to the adventure! Reds win a wild one, 4-3.

Brendanukkah — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:13:04 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Don't touch me. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Drew Stubbs. The rookie went 2-4 with a home run, two runs scored and a stolen base.

Key Plays

Drew Stubbs hit a home run in the bottom of the first inning, Cincinnati's first leadoff home run of the season.
Kip Wells made sure the lead did not hold up long. In the bottom of the second, he walked Lastings Milledge with two outs, hit Ronny Cedeno with a pitch, then gave up back to back singles to Jason Jaramillo and Daniel McCutchen. The Reds were down, 2-1.
The Drew Crew helped put the Reds back on top in the third. With one out, Drew Stubbs singled and stole second. Drew Sutton then singled to drive him in, and took second base on the throw. After moving to third on Joey Votto's grounder, Sutton scored when Scott Rolen singled. 3-2, Reds.
Carlos Fisher relieved Kip Wells in the seventh, and immediately gave up a triple to Ronny Cedeno, and a single to Jaramillo. The game was tied, and extras loomed.
Opening Day centerfielder Darnell McDonald wouldn't let that happen. He singled with one out in the ninth, moved to second on Craig Tatum's hit, and advanced to third on a fly ball by Paul Janish. Then, with JNMHSotG Drew Stubbs at the plate, Pirates pitcher Jesse Chavez uncorked a wild pitch, and McDonald scored the winning run.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Official attendance was 13,051. Estimates put the actual body count between 1,500 and 2,000.
This game was a make up game for one that was rained out on April 10. Only Ryan Doumit and ~~Adam~~ Andy LaRoche were left from the Pirates lineup. I can't find a lineup for the Reds from that day, but of the starting lineup this afternoon, only Joey Votto was with the Reds on April 10.
Johnny Cueto was the scheduled pitcher on April 10. He will start tonight's game.
There have only been two major league baseball players with the last name of McCutchen. They both played for the Pirates today.

Ain't supposed to die on a Saturday night: Reds lose to Dodgers, 11-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 15:18:56 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

"And the two behind the glove are even bigger, dingleberry!" (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Orlando Hudson. The #7 hitter went 2-3 with a home run, RBI, and two runs scored. He also made a nice diving play on a grounder hit by Scott Rolen to snuff out a rally.

Key Plays

As is their wont, the Reds made sure they were playing from behind right away. Juan Pierre singled with one out, and then Manny Ramirez took Maloney deep for his first home run since Aug. 11. 2-0, Dodgers.
The hit parade continued the next inning. Mark Loretta and Orlando Hudson singled to start things off, and Brad Ausmus singled to score Loretta. With Hudson on third, Charlie Haeger sacrificed Ausmus into scoring position as well, and Rafael Furcal hit a sac fly to bring in O-Dawg. Juan Pierre then got his second hit of the game, but Drew Stubbs made a nice throw to nail Ausmus at the plate. 4-0, Dodgers.
In the third inning, the Reds finally figured out Haeger's knuckleball in a big - albeit unlikely - way. Craig Tatum led off the inning with his first career home run. Silent treatment in the dugout for you, Craiggers. One out later, Drew Stubbs worked a walk, to Dusty's chagrin, and stole his first base in the majors. Anyone want to lay odds that Stubbs will steal 99 more bases before Taveras steals 75 more? At any rate, Paul Janish hit a home run, his first of the year. Then the usual suspects went to work. Joey Votto doubled and Brandon Phillips brought him around to score with a single. That was the end of the night for Haeger, and the Reds had tied the game, 4-4.
Rafael Furcal broke the deadlock in the fifth, with a solo home run.
The Reds looked poised to get that run back and maybe more in the bottom of the fifth. Votto led off with a single off of Jeff Weaver, and Brandon Phillips hit a double that moved Votto to third. Scott Rolen was hit by a pitch, and the bases were loaded with no outs. You can guess what happened next. Wladimir Balentien grounded into a fielder's choice as Furcal threw Votto out at home. Jonny Gomes popped up, and Tatum struck out to end the threat.
Take two. In the sixth inning, the Reds again loaded the bases, this time with two outs. Janish doubled, Votto was walked intentionally, and Phillips reached on an infield hit. Ramon Troncoso relieved Weaver, and induced a grounder from Scott Rolen. Hudson made a nice play, and the threat was over.
Not a great day for Maloney, but it was even worse outing for Carlos Fisher. Fisher has quietly had a good season, but not today. Pinch-hitter Andre Ethier doubled to start the seventh, and Furcal reached on a bunt single, then advanced to second when Fisher threw it away. Juan Pierre singled and drove in the two baserunners, while somewhere Willy Taveras could only sit and wonder how he did that. Fisher than walked Manny Ramirez, but immediately gave up a three run homer to Matt Kemp. Danny Ray Herrera came in in relief, got two outs, but then gave up a home run to Orlando Hudson, LA's fourth homer of the game. Six runs scored in the inning, and the Dodgers had their final lead, 11-4.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Dodgers have now won 21 of 25 over the Reds since 2006. No wonder Dusty is enamored of the Dodger Way -- or are the Dodgers so good because Dusty is some kind of Manchurian Candidate? Hmm....
The Reds are now up to 109 runs surrendered in the first inning. That's nearly one per game, which means the Reds are almost always starting out behind the eight ball.
Why did the Reds not score with bases loaded and no outs? Jeff Weaver explains: "Sometimes you use their aggressiveness against them," Weaver said. "That's what I did." Fuck. You. Dusty. Fuck. You. Jacoby.
The Reds continue to have all the health of pre-teen coal miners. Brandon Phillips was hobbling after his hits yesterday, and Laynce Nix has a bulging disk in his neck.

Final - 8.29.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Los Angeles Dodgers	2	2	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	11	13	1
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	11	2
WP: Jeff Weaver (6 - 4) LP: Matt Maloney (0 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

Haeger Ineffective But Dodgers Still Roll

Brendan Scolari — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 01:36:08 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Matt Kemp, left, and Orlando Hudson celebrate after the Dodgers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 11-4 in a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 29, 2009, in Cincinnati. Kemp and Hudson both hit home runs in the game. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

Charlie Haeger wasn't very good today, allowing 4 runs and 2 homeruns in 2.1 innings, but the Dodgers crushed the Reds 11-4 regardless. The Dodgers scored two runs in the first on a Manny Ramirez two run shot. Then in the second inning the Dodgers had three singles and a sacrifice fly to tack on two more runs. But in the bottom of the third inning Haeger allowed a walk, two homers, a single, and a double to tie the score 4-4 before being replaced by Jeff Weaver.

Weaver was hittable, allowing six hits in 3.1 innings, but didn't allow any runs and had four strikeouts. He also managed to get out of a bases loaded nobody out jam in the 5th by getting a forceout at home, a popout, and a strikeout. He also loeaded the bases with two outs in the 6th and Ramon Troncoso came on and got the last out.

Rafael Furcal broke the tie in the 5th inning with an opposite field solo homerun down the right field line, but the bats really exploded in the 7th inning. Andre Ethier started the inning off with a double and then got to third after the Reds threw away a bunt single by Furcal. Both of them scored on a line drive single by Juan Pierre to center field. Manny Ramirez walked on six pitches and then Matt Kemp hit a bomb to right center on the first pitch before Dusty baker finally replaced reliever Carlos Fisher. James Loney then walked before Mark Loretta hit into a double play. But before the inning was finished Orlando hudson added another homerun to left center field to give the Dodgers an 11-4 lead.

The Reds didn't pose much of a threat after the 6th, Dodger relievers Ronald Belisario and Guillermo Mota faced just one batter over the minimum. The win pushed the Dodgers 4.5 games ahead of the Rockies and 6.5 games ahead of the Giants in the NL West.

Tomorrow is the rubber match of the three game series, with Clayton Kershaw (8-7) facing off against Bronson Arroyo (11-12) at 10:10 AM. Also for all you Raider fans out there, the Raiders looked hideously bad today, getting destroyed 45-7 by the New Orleans Saints.

W - Jeff Weaver (6-4): 3.1 IP, 6 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts

L - Matt Maloney (0-3): 6 IP, 8 hits, 5 runs, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts

Worst loss in Reds history

Brendanukkah — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 02:58:52 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

"Swung on and missed." (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Cole Hamels. It's easy to look at all the runs Philly scored and give credit to one of the offensive players (Shane Victorino, Greg Dobbs), but don't forget that Hamels did what he usually does against the Reds: dominate them. Seven innings of one run ball, giving up only three hits. He also only struck out two, but he had a good day at the plate as well, going 2-4 with two runs and 2 RBI. Subtract away everyone else, and Hamels still would have single-handedly beat us.

Key Plays

Jonny Gomes hit a home run in the second inning.
Trying to mount a 21 run comeback in the ninth inning, the Reds got runners on second and third with no outs and Votto, Janish, and Gomes coming up to bat. They did not score.
Every other time you turned around the Phillies were scoring three runs. Except for when Jayson Werth hit a grand slam. Then they scored four.

The FanGraph is posted in Game Thread 2 (thanks, BK!), but suffice it to say it was at 100% Philadelphia victory after Johnny Cueto gave up 9 runs in only 2/3 innings.

Other Notes

This was the largest margin of defeat in Reds history. Remember how far back that goes.
Johnny Cueto's ERA went from 2.69 to 3.45. Paul Janish's ERA went from 45.00 to 49.50.
Every one of the Phillies starters had a hit and everyone except Ryan Howard scored a run. Howard was removed in the fourth inning.
Only one of the 22 runs was unearned.
Tip of the hat to Carlos Fisher and Josh Roenicke. Between them, they pitched three scoreless innings, giving up only three hits and striking out four. Roenicke still hasn't given up a run in the majors. In the search for a silver lining, let's remember that yesterday Roenicke came in against the Cardinals with the bases loaded and no outs, facing Albert Pujols with Ryan Ludwick on deck. He surrendered zero runs. No one really made a big deal of it in the game thread, but that was badass.
Back to the carnage. Jay Bruce went 0-3 and made an error in the outfield, calling Brandon Phillips off a pop up then letting it drop. Not a good day for Jay. A day off couldn't hurt things.
The Reds now have a -43 run differential. Only four teams (Washington, San Diego, Baltimore, and Kansas City) have worse run differentials. Arizona also has a -43 run diff. Philadelphia now is at +40, the only team in the NL East with a positive run diff.
Johnny Cueto gave up 9 runs in .2 innings. Is that worse than Arroyo giving up 10 runs in 1 inning against Toronto?
It bears repeating: This is the largest margin of defeat ever in Reds history.

Final - 7.6.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	1
Philadelphia Phillies	10	1	1	4	0	0	0	6	X	22	21	0
WP: Cole Hamels (5 - 5) LP: Johnny Cueto (8 - 5)

Complete Coverage >

This Comeback Sticks, Nationals Beat Reds, 3-2 On Hard Slide!!!

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 02:21:40 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

6 months ago: Washington Nationals' Christian Guzman (15) scores as Cincinnati Reds' catcher Ramon Hernandez waits for the ball during the eighth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, June 11, 2009, in Washington. Nationals won 3-2. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Browse more photos »

It was cruising along like it was gonna be just another one of those games, you know, the other forty-two of them, but these are the new Washington Nationals, the ones that are bound to sign Stephen Strasburg, who is bound to pan out, at exactly the same time the coming wave of prospects crests, lifting the Nationals above the salary excesses of their NL East rivals and at least into Wild Card contention...These are the Washington Nationals who walked out of a two-and-a-half hour rain delay and picked up where they left off last night, tying the Cincinnati Reds in a game they would eventually lose, but today they refined their technique, and waited to strike in the eighth, turning a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win by forcing an error, the fate that usually befalls the team with the most combined E's of any roster in baseball. The Washington Nationals are turning the tables, this is how it happened tonight...

HEADLINES: (After the Jump...*)

E: 57

E: 5

What The ..... Is a DH?

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching, In DC, Virginia, NJ, Syracuse, NY And Some Place Called Australia, Sounds Fancy!

Nationals Win, 3-2 Final.

DWDT: 3.

For The Completists, An Incomplete Game Report After The Jump...

Nationals now 16-42.

HEADLINES:

E: 57 - DC lefty John Lannan gave up a two-out single to Reds' shortstop Alex Gonzalez in the second, but he got the ground ball he wanted out of Cincy 1B Adam Rosales, only to have straight-shooter Ryan Zimmerman misfire on the throw to first, for his 7th Error of '09, the Nationals' 57th E as a team, and Reds' first run of the game, 1-0 Cincinnati. Two innings later it was A-Gon again, with an RBI single that scores a run in the fourth, bringing Johnny Gomes around after he was hit by a pitch from Lannan in the first AB of the inning. 2-0 Reds after four. Lannan's afternoon would end after he'd allowed 5 hits, 2 runs, 1 ER and 2 walks, with 2 K's and a 3.51 ERA after 6.0 IP.

The Nationals score a run in the sixth on three singles by Josh Willingham, Wil Nieves and pinch hitter Nick Johnson and an RBI groundout by DC SS Cristian Guzman. 2-1 Reds after six, and Julian Tavarez takes over on the hill for John Lannan. Tavarez gives up a two-out walk in the eighth, but is otherwise unharmed as he holds the Nationals close through the top of the frame, and in the bottom of the eighth inning, the Nationals strike...

Daniel Ray Herrera comes out of the pen to replace Carlos Fisher after a leadoff single in the Nationals' eighth, when most are expecting maybe, Arthur Rhodes?, but it's the third game of a road series and the Reds have won the first two, so Manager Dusty Baker goes to Herrera, at least for one batter, and the Cincy lefty allows a second single to Anderson Hernandez and the Nationals are rolling with two on and no outs and only a one-run deficit to recover from, at least, that is, until Cristian Guzman bunts too hard and the Reds take down the lead runner at third. Alberto Gonzalez singles, but not hard enough to score the tying run, so it's Ryan Zimmerman due up, with the bases loaded and a new pitcher on the way out to the mound...

E: 5 - Right-hander Nick Masset replaces Herrera, and Ryan Zimmerman steps into the batter's box. A 91 mph fastball from Masset catches the high outside corner as Zimmerman swings and misses, then a slider falls off the outside of the plate, and Zimmerman holds back. Masset comes back with a four-seam fastball that bounces, and follows with another low heater that hits 95 but is low in the zone and short of the plate. The 3-1 pitch is a fastball that Zimmerman connects with, but only for a groundout and a DP if the Reds can turn it quickly enough, Alex Gonzalez to Brandon Phillips at second, but DC's Alberto Gonzalez is charging from first, and his hard slide rocks Phillips and sends his throw flying by first, Anderson Hernandez comes around to score and Cristian Guzman follows, and the Nationals have a 3-2 lead.

Enter Joe Beimel...

Joe Beilmel failed in his first audition as closer, but Manny Acta put his trust in Beimel to save tonight's game. Jay Bruce grounds out, Alex Gonzalez flies out, and Adam Rosales does the same. Joe Beimel saves the game. The Legend Continues...What? You Haven't Heard The Legend Of Joe Beimel. Miss Chatter had the first story I read about it back in early May, in a DC Sports Bog article entitled, "The Youtube Legend Of Joe Beimel", and if you still don't know what I mean, it's about time you did:

What The ..... Is a DH?

Starting with tomorrow's 7:38 pm EST start, the Washington Nationals make a 15-game trip through the American League East, 3 this weekend against Tampa Bay, followed by 3 with NY's Yankees next week and 3 each with the Blue Jays, and Red Sox at home in DC after that and then three with the Orioles before the Nationals get back to their own league. In 75 Interleague since moving to the nation's capital in 2005, the Washington Nationals are 36-39. Stammen vs Garza in the Trop tonight...

Cincinnati Reds At Washington Nationals. Game 58 or 59 of 162.

(ed. note - "Arrived home in the bottom of the second, where the GameReport picks up...")

Bottom of Second...

...Josh Willingham hits a low liner to Brandon Phillip for the first out of the second at second. Austin Kearns draws a one-out walk . Wil Nieves should have singled if Alex Gonzalez hadn’t been there to make a slick fielding play at short. John Lannan...

Bottom of Third...

Cristian Guzman slaps a single through second for the Nationals’ first hit of the game. Alberto Gonzalez chops one to short, Guzman’s running so he avoids the DP. Ryan Zimmerman take a one-out walk in front of Adam Dunn, Dunn K’s swinging under a high heater from Owings. It’s the slow stuff that gets Elijah Dukes swinging for the final out of the third.

John Lannan hits Johnny Gomes and then walks Ramon Hernandez. Jay Bruce grounds into a force at second, first and third with one down. Alex Gonzalez knocks Bruce in with a line drive single. 2-0 Reds. Adam Rosales K’s swinging over an 0-2 curve. Micah Owings pops out to short right, Alberto Gonzales goes back ot get it...Josh Willingham smokes a line drive to left to start third. Austin Kearns swings over a 2-2 slider outside. Wil Nieves gets hit in the back with a curveball gone bad. Lannan tries to lay down a bunt, but he hits it too hard, and Adam Rosales charges in from first to cut down the lead runner at third. Cristian Guzman grounds out to first.

John Lannan gets a weak pop behind first from Jerry Hairston, Jr. Elijah Dukes glides back ot catch Willy Taveras flyout. Lannan walks Brandon Phillips to bring up Johnny Gomes with two down. Johhny Gomes pops out behind second to end the Reds’ fifth...Alberto Gonzalez takes one on the wrists, and takes a base. Ryan Zimmerman works the count full, and goes the other way with a liner right at Bruce in left. Adam Dunn pops out to second. Elijah Dukes swings through a two-strike fastball to end the fifth.

Cristian Guzman slides to field Ramon Hernandez’s grounder, and rolls and throws from his backside to first, in time! Josh Willingham’s waitiing for Jay Bruce’s liner. Alex Gonzalez flies to right center and Dukes gets to it in time...Josh Willingham goes the other way and drops a bloop single into right. Kearns pops up to first, for Rosales. Wil Nieves reaches down for fastball and lines to left to put two on for Nick Johnson, who singles to right to load the bases for Cristian Guzman grounds into a force at third, but a run scores, 2-1 Reds. Alberto Gonzalez flies out to Taveras to end the sixth.

Tavarez vs Rosales to start the seventh. Rosales flies out to left center, Hammer and Dukes almost collide. Josh Willingham is at a full spring to catch Chris Dickerson’s sinking flyout. Jerry Hairston, Jr. K’s chasing junk from Tavarez...The Reds bring on Carlos Fisher to start the seventh against Zimmerman. Zim draws a leadoff walk. Adam Dunn pops out to the infield. Elijah Dukes flies out to right on the first pitch. 1-2 pitch to Kearns, and he K’s trying to hold up on a bender that ends in the dirt.

Tavarez gets a weak grounder from Willy Taveras to second. Brandon Phillips grounds to third, Zimmerman guns him. Johnny Gomes takes a two-out walk from Tavarez. Ramon Hernandez takes strike three...Carlos Fisher’s back for the eighth, facing off against Willie Harris lines a single to right to start the home half of the frame. Anderson "Elvis" Hernandez is going to see lefty Daniel Ray Herrera. Willie Harris gets hit with a pick off play. Anderson Hernandez sneaks a single through short, two on for Guzman. Guzman bunts toward short and the pitcher throws to third, in time. Alberto Gonalez shoots a fly ball to center to load the bases. Ryan Zimmerman grounds to short, Phillips to Alex Gonzalez, Alberto Gonzalez slides in hard and the DP throw to first sails, two runs score, 3-2 DC. Adam Dunn lines to left with two down. Elijah Dukes K’s chasing...

Joe Beimel comes on to end it. Ryan Zimmerman cuts off Jay Bruce’s grounder to short, and throws to first, in time!! Alex Gonzalez flies out to left!!! The Nationals win!!! 3-2 final.

Nationals now 16-42.

"In conclusion, your skill as a smooth pitcher is the key element to the creation of our dominant brand of base knocks." Reds win 9-3.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 04:04:45 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Nix rounds third, with the Gayteway Arch in the background. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Laynce Nix. Nix went 2-4 with two home runs, 2 R, and 4 RBI, as well as some nifty catches in LF. Johnny Cueto and Brandon Phillips both had great games too, but Nix had the coolest AP picture.

Key Plays

Nix hit his first home run in the second inning.
After Johnny Cueto reached base on a nice bunt in the third, Kyle Lohse left the game with a forearm injury. Jerry Hairston then reached on an error by Joe Thurston (THURSTON!!!) but was erased on Chris Dickerson's double play. Brandon Phillips blooped a single to score Cueto, then stole second and third base. Ramon Hernandez singled, and the Reds were up 3-0.
Paul Janish singled in the fourth, moved to second on Cueto's sacrifice, then scored on a Jerry Hairston single. Why did Dusty even play this guy?
By the seventh inning, Cueto was beginning to tire and gave up back to back doubles to Colby Rasmus and Brendan Ryan, leading to the only run he allowed all game.
The Reds put the game out of reach in the eighth and ninth with a three run homer from Nix (our Frisch's Big Boy Big Play of the Game) and a two run shot from Brandon Phillips, respectively.
Carlos Fisher came in to close out the proceedings, but looked a little shaky, giving up two runs before striking out Chris Duncan to end the game.

FanGraphs

Other Notes

This was the first time in seven games the Reds didn't allow a run in the first inning.
Laynce Nix last had a multihomer game on May 12, 2004. It was his fourth career multihomer game.
Despite drawing a walk, Jay Bruce is in a 1-24 slump.
Chris Welsh's son graduated today, hence the presence of Kent Mercker in the booth.
The Reds have had a disappointing road trip, but are still only 2.5 games out of first, and have, at worst, split this series with the Cardinals.

Final - 6.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	3	2	9	13	1
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	10	2
WP: Johnny Cueto (5 - 3) LP: Kyle Lohse (4 - 4)

Complete Coverage >

New Arms of the Week: Nine Pitching Debuts

Harry Pavlidis — Mon, 25 May 2009 03:27:36 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

Craig Stammen throws a two-seamer in his debut on May 21, 2009.

Browse more photos »

Another week, another batch of debuts. And another position player taking the mound (Ross Gload). I'm only covering the "real" pitchers, as usual. Minus Gload, that leaves these eight:

Craig Stammen
Promoted despite a paltry 3.2 K/9IP (gotta be the sub-2 ERA). That's well off his 2008 total (7.6) and career minor league mark (6.7). The Nationals gave Stammen a start this week, and it wasn't awful, nor pretty. He worked into the 7th inning, allowed four runs on four hits (one home run) one walk and three strike outs.

Cristhian Martinez
A minor-league veteran, Martinez debuted for the Marlins with two innings of relief. He allowed two runs, but struck out four batters. He was optioned back down to Double-A the next day.

Clay Zavada
Signed by Arizona out of the Frontier League in 2008, the lefty jumped from Low-A to Double-AA for 2009. He's got quite a story - it's in the New York Times. He had been drafted by the Dbacks a few years earlier, but life had other plans.

Kris Medlen
Just 23, Medlen made an ugly start for Atlanta. His rotation-mate in Triple-A Gwinnett is Tommy Hanson, and the two of them could be making a positive impact for the Braves sooner than later.

Dale Thayer
Another minor league veteran, Thayer worked a three inning save in his debut for the Rays. He's averaged more than a strike out per inning in the minors. Best known for his fledgling handlebar mustache.

Anthony Swarzak
In injury to Glen Perkins opened a spot in the Twins rotation for this 23-year old rookie. Swarzak got the win in his debut on Saturday.

Sean West
The Marlins were busy with the debuts this week. They had two of their own and hosted two others (Zayer and Zavada). West, a 22-year old lefty, got the start Saturday night and did alright, all things considered. Two runs in five innings, four walks and five strike outs for a no decision.

Carlos Fisher
Called up with Jonny Gomes, Fisher debuted in the 11th inning of an interleague game against Cleveland. The Reds rookie was credited with the win when Alex Gonzalez connected for a walk-off double.

Read on for the PITCHf/x goodies.

PITCHf/x Profiles

Oddly enough, on the day of if the Indy 500, I found exactly 500 pitches from these new arms.

Click the table headers to sort.

Pitcher	Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Dale Thayer	Change	1	1	0	84.2	-6.5	3.5	241.5	1,376.9
Dale Thayer	Two-seam FB	7	5	2	93.3	-11.1	6.8	238.7	2,680.0
Dale Thayer	Four-seam FB	29	14	15	93.1	-8.5	8.1	226.3	2,423.6
Dale Thayer	Slider	8	4	4	81.8	0.3	-3.6	149.1	683.9
Kris Medlen	Change	27	18	9	80.1	-7.7	6.2	230.7	1,774.6
Kris Medlen	Curveball	19	4	15	78.0	4.9	-4.6	46.3	1,195.9
Kris Medlen	Two-seam FB	20	12	8	89.3	-7.5	7.4	225.1	2,120.2
Kris Medlen	Four-seam FB	46	16	30	88.9	-3.3	10.3	197.7	2,167.4
Cristhian Martinez	Change	8	5	3	85.2	-9.0	5.8	237.0	2,032.1
Cristhian Martinez	Two-seam FB	10	6	4	91.3	-9.6	5.7	239.2	2,267.7
Cristhian Martinez	Four-seam FB	7	2	5	91.1	-6.7	7.4	222.7	2,020.3
Cristhian Martinez	Slider	12	1	11	80.2	4.6	2.5	117.2	998.3
Carlos Fisher	Two-seam FB	2	2	0	92.4	-5.4	6.3	220.3	1,711.3
Carlos Fisher	Four-seam FB	5	0	5	93.7	-1.6	9.1	189.7	1,943.2
Carlos Fisher	Slider	7	1	6	82.9	3.4	-1.9	61.8	720.1
Anthony Swarzak	Change	17	7	10	80.7	-9.5	7.9	230.0	2,216.6
Anthony Swarzak	Two-seam FB	63	31	32	91.1	-9.2	8.4	227.7	2,540.4
Anthony Swarzak	Four-seam FB	10	4	6	91.5	-6.6	10.5	211.8	2,516.3
Anthony Swarzak	Slider	8	3	5	76.1	6.8	-0.5	85.1	1,151.5
Sean West	Change	5	0	5	84.1	8.2	10.0	140.3	2,415.7
Sean West	Two-seam FB	3	0	3	92.6	9.0	9.6	136.9	2,706.8
Sean West	Four-seam FB	60	5	55	92.5	6.4	10.9	149.4	2,603.5
Sean West	Slider	23	1	22	81.7	-1.1	2.9	199.3	589.8
Craig Stammen	Change	11	7	4	82.5	-6.1	7.4	219.4	1,788.1
Craig Stammen	Two-seam FB	6	3	3	90.5	-8.0	7.2	228.2	2,169.2
Craig Stammen	Four-seam FB	61	37	24	90.4	-5.9	9.5	212.2	2,263.4
Craig Stammen	Slider	7	3	4	80.4	0.8	-4.1	113.0	767.2
Clay Zavada	Change	6	4	2	80.4	12.0	4.0	108.6	2,248.4
Clay Zavada	Two-seam FB	1	0	1	88.0	10.0	7.2	125.9	2,402.4
Clay Zavada	Four-seam FB	9	7	2	88.1	6.2	11.4	151.8	2,549.7
Clay Zavada	Slider	2	2	0	79.6	-3.0	-0.1	270.2	563.2

Swarzak's slider, or slurve, is very nasty looking. Thayer throws a hard two-seamer with lots of movement. Those are really the two pitches that stand-out for me.

West was the only pitcher to break 95 mph, which he did a handful of times, but didn't sustain the velocity, resulting in a lower average fastball speed than Fisher (who broker 94 once). There's a mix of change-up/fastball separations in the group. Anywhere from a 5 to 12 mph gap, approximately, amongst the eight rookies.

Like the sortable table? OK, have another. I've re-tagged events in my PITCHf/x database, so some things have changed. rv100 is averaging slightly below 0, which was the case after the initial correction (that was a bigger one) and is still wrong. nkSLG (total bases on all balls in play and home runs) is up from .51 to .52, the newer/higher being the more accurate (grand slams were not counted in the older version [!]).

I've also added batted ball types, which helped me dig deeper and parse more events in the PITCHf/x data correctly. Some error types are ambiguous (slightly) and there are a few goofy ones, but we're in better shape now than before.

Now, small-sample fun time...You'll notice pitch type is blank, that's because there are barely enough pitches to work with to begin with.

Pitcher	Type	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	rv100
Dale Thayer		45	0.556	0.080	3.0	0.689	0.071	0.226	0.333	-1.8
Kris Medlen		79	0.329	0.192	2.2	0.392	0.146	0.355	0.375	0.7
Cristhian Martinez		37	0.487	0.222	1.7	0.568	0.125	0.238	1.200	4.3
Carlos Fisher		14	0.357	0.400	3.5	0.357	0.222	0.400	0.000	-3.8
Anthony Swarzak		98	0.418	0.073	1.5	0.663	0.273	0.508	0.227	-2.7
Sean West		91	0.407	0.108	2.1	0.615	0.114	0.393	0.357	-0.8
Craig Stammen		85	0.459	0.128	1.6	0.600	0.235	0.392	0.450	-2.0
Clay Zavada		18	0.444	0.500	1.5	0.611	0.286	0.455	0.000	-6.4

Swarzak's sinker was effective, but the slider wasn't. Based on the teeny weeny samples, here were the most effective pitches by type (rv100) minimum 10 pitches:

Change: Stammen (-3.4)
Two-seam FB: Swarzak (-5.1)
Four-seam FB: Thayer (-4.1)
Slider: West (-5.7)

Medlen had the only curveball, by my classifcations, and the 15 he threw averaged out to an rv100 of 1.9.

Lastly, batted ball data, sortable, too.

Pitcher	GB/BIP	LD/BIP	FB/BIP	IF/FB	HR/FB
Anthony Swarzak	36%	14%	50%	27%	0%
Carlos Fisher	50%	0%	50%	0%	0%
Clay Zavada	0%	0%	100%	50%	0%
Craig Stammen	60%	20%	20%	25%	25%
Cristhian Martinez	60%	20%	20%	0%	100%
Dale Thayer	17%	17%	67%	13%	0%
Kris Medlen	25%	13%	63%	20%	0%
Sean West	36%	14%	50%	29%	0%

Until next week....Happy Memorial Day.