SB Nation - Mike Mussina

New York Yankees Team of the Decade

Ed Valentine — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 15:34:39 -0000

'Tis the season for teams of the decade. Fans around baseball, except maybe in Boston where you know they would put up a fight, have to concede that the New York Yankees are the team of the decade.

But, looking specifically at the Yankees themselves, what is THEIR Team of the Decade? Some positions, like shortstop, catcher and closer, are obvious. Others, less so.

Here is my stab at naming the New York Yankee Team of the Decade.

C -- Jorge Posada. Duh! Sorry, Francisco Cervelli fans. This one, of course, is easy.

1B -- Jason Giambi. This position presents a real conundrum. The first name that leaps to mind is Giambi, but in his seven seasons with the Yankees he played more than half the team's games at first base just twice. And, he played more than 100 games there only one. He averaged 76.8 games per season at first base as a Yankee. Tino Martinez played just three seasons, but was the full-time first baseman each of those years playing 147 games per season. Tino averaged 22 homers and 83 RBI in his three seasons. Giambi averaged 32 home runs and 94 RBI, splitting his time between first base and designated hitter. Honestly, I hate doing it, but In the end I have to go with Giambi, especially since his pair of 41-home run seasons as a Yankee came when he was the primary first baseman in 2002 and 2003.

2B -- Robinson Cano. A close call here over Alfonso Soriano, based largely on Cano having five seasons (yes, five, can you believe it?) as the starting second baseman. Soriano was terrific, averaging 32 homers, 89 RBI and 39.6 stolen bases, but was a Yankee for just three seasons before being dealt away. Cano has averaged 17 home runs, 79 RBI and has a career average of .306 in five seasons. He is also a better defender. Again, I think length of service gives this one to Cano.

SS -- Derek Jeter. Umm, who else? If I was naming one, Jeter would also be Yankee Player of the Decade. Gee, maybe I just did name one.

3B -- Alex Rodriguez. Again, a no-brainer. Gotta at least give Aaron Boone an honorable mention, though, for his 2003 home run that propelled the Yankees to the World Series.

LF -- Johnny Damon. This is, obviously, between Damon and Hideki Matsui. And, in my opinion, not a choice between which one belongs on the Team of the Decade. Rather, a choice between which one is the left fielder and which one is the designated hitter. In four New York seasons, Damon has been the primary left fielder for just two years. He has DH'ed just 29 times in those two years, however. Matsui has DH'ed 250 times in six productive New York seasons. So, he gets the left field nod.

CF -- Bernie Williams. Bern, baby, Bern! Was a fixture with the Yankees for seven of the decade's 10 seasons, and was an integral part of the lineup. Hit 136 of 287 career home runs this decade. I know many of you are still irritated by how the Yankees treated Bernie at the end, but that's done with. Let's just give him his due.

RF -- Bobby Abreu. This is another excruciatingly tough call. First, it was difficult to rule out fan favorite Paul O'Neill, whom I think with our hearts we would all probably like to give this spot to. O'Neill, though, played just two seasons this decade and in the second was a shell of himself. So, this choice is really between Abreu and Gary Sheffield. Sheffield had two dominant seasons (.290, 36, 121 and .291, 34, 123), but only played 39 games in his third season due to injury. Abreu had two excellent full seasons (.283, 16, 101, 25 steals and .296, 20, 100, 22 steals). I think Abreu gets the nod because of his impact in 2006, when he was traded to the Yankees to replace the injured Sheffield and hit .330 with 7 home runs and 42 RBI in 58 games, helping the Yankees reach the playoffs.

DH -- Hideki Matsui. The World Series MVP absolutely has to have a place on this team. In six Yankee seasons Matsui has been nothing but productive, hitting .292 and averaging 22 home runs and 99.5 RBI per season.

SP -- Andy Pettitte. Whew! Another really difficult call between Pettitte and Mike Mussina. I know 'wins' is not the only way to measure a pitcher, but for the purpose of this argument it shows how close these two are. Mussina won 123 regular-season games, including 20 at the age of 39, in seven Yankee seasons this decade. Pettitte won 111 regular-season games despite spending three wayward seasons in Houston. The real difference between Pettitte and Mussina is post-season success. 'Moose' was 5-7 in Yankee post-season career. Pettitte, this decade, is 11-5 with a World-Series clinching victory fresh in my mind. I could easily name them both, but if I had to take one it would still be Pettitte.

CL -- Mariano Rivera. The best of all time. Period.

Manager -- Joe Torre. What choice do you have here? Joe Girardi has a World Series title in his two seasons, and he will likely be around for a long time. Hopefully, one day his resume will match what Torre did in New York, but not yet. This decade may not have matched the 1990s for Torre in terms of World Series titles, but one championship, two AL pennants, and playoff appearances all eight seasons he managed the team is pretty darn impressive.

So, what do you guys think? Tell me where I'm right. And wrong. And tell me why.

"Long is the way...

Travis G — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:15:14 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

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And hard, that out of hell leads up to light."

That's how it felt in 2001 and 2004. The way those seasons ended were the equivalent of baseball hell. An error and bloop single in the ninth inning of game seven in 2001... and of course the (in)famous and unprecedented collapse in 2004.

Because of those tragedies, the recently ended drought (eight years to the day, in fact, since game seven in 2001) seemed about twice as long.

Even the additions of Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez weren't enough. We had the best player in baseball and couldn't get it done. He couldn't get it done.

Then it got even worse for Alex. He had a messy divorce, hooked up with a crazy woman, and got exposed as a cheater. On top of all that, he received news that he might miss the whole 2009 season with a hip injury. It was his own personal hell.

No one could have predicted at the time, but that sequence of events was probably the best thing to ever happen to him.

When his PED usage came out and hip surgery sidelined him for a month, it seemingly allowed him to become 'care-free.' An A-Rod that once seemed to care what the fans and media thought of him all of a sudden didn't. Frankly, he seemed happier and more comfortable with himself. Whether that actually made him a better ballplayer is debatable, but from my own experience, I always work better when I feel comfortable - don't you?

As far as Kate Hudson goes, she seems like a sane, down-to-earth woman. A far cry from Madonna. (Quick aside: how cool would it be to have Kurt Russell and Goldie Hawn as parents-in-law?)

The hip surgery went far better than anyone could have expected. A-Rod missed one month and was still able to compile 30 homers and 100 RBI. He even stole 14 bases! In fact, the surgery went so well that the additional surgery that was to happen this off-season may not be needed at all.

So thank you Selena Roberts, thank you Kate Hudson, and thank you Dr. Marc Philippon. We now live in a world where Alex Rodriguez has won the World Series.

Wait, so how exactly is this anything like 2004?

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:32:45 -0000

Yeah, I'm just not seeing it...

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The 2009 ALCS and 2004 ALCS are practically mirror images of each other.

Indistinguishable.

Talk about carbon copies! I haven't seen this level of uncanny similarity since watching Woody Harrelson and Wesley Snipes in White Men Can't Jump.

Yeah, that's about how alike these two series are.

If I have to read one more thinly veiled (or downright overt, even) suggestion that the 2009 ALCS is "2004 all over again," I may spoon out my eyeballs with my bare hands without skipping a beat.

I'm sorry, HOW exactly is this ANYTHING like 2004?

As much as it pains me to even think about that dark time in my life, I'm going to bite the bullet for the sake of putting an end to this ridiculous Y2K-like mass hysteria and unfounded panic.

Let's consider the elements that shaped the 2004 mess:

The Greatest Rivalry in Sports
Yankees took 3-0 lead
Red Sox hadn't beat the Yankees since the dawn of time
A-Rod's empty performance
Red Sox were the favorite entering series
Yankees pitching: Mike Mussina, Jon Lieber, Javier Vasquez, El Duque, Esteban Loaiza, Kevin Brown
Yankees Big Bats: Miguel Cairo, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield (all below .300)

And in 2009?

Not the greatest rivalry, or even a rivalry at all
Yankees went up 2-0. Then 2-1. Then 3-1. Then 3-2.
Yankees haven't beaten the Angels since the dawn of time
A-Rod's immortal-like production and clutchness
Yankees were favorite entering series
Yankees pitching: CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte
Yankees Big Bats: Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui

Not only is 2009 not that similar to 2004, but it's arguably the polar OPPOSITE of it. The Yankees aren't squandering away a swift 3-0 lead. The past 5 games have been back and forth, in terms of series record.

If this is considered to be a repeat of 2004, then I have to assume that anytime the Yankees lose a single game in the postseason, it's going to be linked to a Dave Roberts steal clip.

When the Angels lose tomorrow, I expect to read volumes of column inches asserting the blatant redux of the 1986 ALCS. Because, you know, they're practically one in the same. The Angels lost that one. They're going to lose this one. And apparently, that's about all the matching elements you need these days, to substantiate a cross-season comparison.

Next thing you know, they're gonna start telling me Papelbon and Mo are identical closers! Oh, wait...

Pay no attention to this 2004 drivel, Yankee fans. It's the hollow propaganda of haters everywhere.

And as George Bernard Shaw said, "Hatred is the coward's revenge for being intimidated."

-CYC

Bold Prediction Update

jscape2000 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:30 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Doncha know?

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Update: I wrote this before Robbie beat the Royals last night.

Last year, I picked Mike Mussina to have a great year. He did.

Back on March 6th, I picked Robbie Cano to have a break out season. I looked at his abnormally low BABIP against his high line drive rate, and I predicted he'd hit .325/.375/.500.

2009: .321/.352/.518.

His slugging is phenomenal (17th in the league, and the highest ranked up the middle player not named Joe Mauer).

He came up short on the OBP, which I figured would go back up towards his 2007 career high 5.9%. After posting a 4.2% in 2008 and a nearly identical 4.3% this season, it looks like 2007 was the outlier.

There's been a lot of attention given to his terrible hitting with RISP, and while he might have been putting extra pressure on himself early, for it to stay this low some bad luck has been involved too. Just like Edwin Jackson of the Tigers out performed his peripherals and now is coming back to earth, we have more to look forward to from Robbie in the playoffs.

Clayton Kershaw is not for sale at any price

Phil Gurnee — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:13:56 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

The Dodgers best young LHP since Fernandomania is being offered as a sacrifice for a World Champion by the local media. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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via minos-the-minotaur-comic.dumbbum.net

The Minotaur is in the house today, can the best young Los Angeles Dodger LHP since Fernandomania break the Dodgers first three game losing streak of 2009? Only if the Dodgers oblige with a few runs of their own as he can't win the game on his own. If Clayton does what he normally does he will give us 5-6 innings of brilliant pitching. In his last eight starts he's shut out the opponent five times, given up one run once, and two runs twice, dropping his ERA from 4.13 to 2.96. Only twice has he not gone at least six innings. With this kind of performance and the subsequent struggles of Chad he may have moved into the number one spot in the rotation, a spot he may never relinquish.

Some scribes in Los Angeles may not have noticed but Clayton Kershaw is having a historic season given his age and southpawness. For more on this, turn the page.

Earlier this year Clayton Kershaw threw a special game but I didn't realize how special it was until reading a column by Joe Posnanski yesterday in which he mentioned this Bill James rule.

Bill James once wrote about how, if a big league pitchers strikes out 15 or more in a game while not walking anyone, you can conclude that he probably will be an outstanding big league pitcher. It’s one of those persuasive achievements. Look: Twenty-one pitchers have pulled it off since 1954 …

Dominant, Hall-of-Fame-type pitchers (9): Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Luis Tiant*, John Smoltz, Curt Schilling*, Johan Santana, Nolan Ryan, Mike Mussina*.

*These pitchers may or may not get into the Hall of Fame … but they have a case. Clemens is a whole other thing.

Pitchers seemingly on their way to dominant careers who were derailed by injury or some other issue (8): Dwight Gooden, Kerry Wood, Frank Tanana (who still had an excellent career), Mark Prior, Gary Nolan, Sam McDowell, Vida Blue, Erik Bedard.

Darned good pitchers (3): Mark Langston, Mario Soto, Sid Fernandez.

Anomaly: Sterling Hitchcock.

The day after Joe wrote the above quote Luke Hochevar struck out 13 and walked none, so Joe wondered how many pitchers had done that and what that might mean for the future of Luke Hochevar, which got me to wondering where Clayton Kershaw's April 15th masterpiece placed him. In that game Clayton struck out 13 and walked one which changed the dynamics of Hochevar's game, since Luke didn't walk anyone.

Part of the reason I was interested was the irritating comment from Tom Hoffarth in Monday's Daily News in which he advocated trading Kershaw for Halladay.

Someday, sure, he might throw a complete-game shutout, strike out 15 and walk just eight. But for now, he's unremarkably become the No. 2 bullet in an L.A. five-shooter that lacks anything to put fear into a playoff opponent. And don't even get us started on the bullpen.

Whatever description you want to place on Clayton's season so far unremarkable is the last adjective I'd use. Evidently Tom, was unaware that Clayton at the tender age of 21 on April 15th had already almost accomplished the above feat but he did it as a Dodger and he did it while only walking one. Now it is very possible that Tom andPlaschke are completely unaware of this game because the Lakers were still playing and the local media doesn't pay attention to the Dodgers until the Laker's close their doors for the summer. It might also explain why they have been oblivious to the great beginning that Chad Billingsley had to the season.

Tom and the other media guys would have traded 20 year old Fernando Valenzuela for Vida Blue thinking we needed an established "ace" to win a world series. Funny thing happened in 1981, we won a World Championship and it was Fernando who led us to that World Series.

So I looked into how many lefthanded pitchers had struck out 13 and walked one since 1954 since that is as far back at baseball reference goes for their play index on individual performances. The list is very impressive and even more impressive is that ClaytonKershaw is the youngest LH pitcher to have managed the feat. Only 20 southpaws have managed the feat in 55 years of baseball and of those 20 you have some of the greatest LH pitchers to ever pitch in the post integrated era. Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Vida Blue, Ron Guidry, Johan Santana, and Mickey Lolich are names that anyone familiar with the history of baseball knows about. This doesn't prove anything but I was just curious how many southpaws had done this feat and how they stack up in history.

Every-time I do something like this I'm always reminded just how awesome Sandy Koufax was. He did this trick six times, with Randy Johnson pulling down four entries. Carlton, Hamels, Higuera, and Baylor Moore were able to do it twice.

Pitcher	Earliest Age	One	Two	Three	Four	Five	Six
Koufax, Sandy	24.225	9/29/65	8/11/60	7/12/63	9/29/66	8/16/64	6/26/62
Johnson, Randy	29.36	9/26/93	9/5/93	5/10/00	9/5/99
Carlton, Steve	27.13	10/3/82	5/7/72
Hamels, Cole	23.275	9/28/07	6/11/08
Higuera, Teddy	28.23	5/19/87	6/28/87
Moore, Baylor	21.18	8/23/72	7/23/72
Abbott, Jim	24.005	9/24/91
Blue, Vida	26.36	7/23/76
Downing, Al	22.058	8/25/63
Guidry, Ron	28.26	5/16/79
Hurst, Bruce	31.017	4/10/89
Kershaw, Clayton	21.027	4/15/09
Langston, Mark	32.043	10/2/92
Leibrandt, Charlie	34.327	8/27/91
Lolich, Mickey	27.007	9/19/67
Norman, Fred	31.26	5/7/74
O'Dell, Billy	29.14	7/4/61
Santana, Johan	30.03	4/12/09
Short, Chris	28.28	6/30/66
Wolf, Randy	26.03	9/21/02

According to game score the Kershaw April 15th game was not that special other then for the age at which he accomplished the task. Given time I expect him to move up the list and I'm much rather see him do it as a Dodger then as a Blue Jay. I've watched the Dodgers since 1969 and this is the best young arm I've ever seen come out of our system, not seeing him mature as a Dodger would break many a Dodger fans heart.

Many a good young lefthander has peaked early and ended with a mediocre or shortened career, even the hard throwing ones. So now I'm curious, just how good does the 21 year old Clayton compare to the other young lefthanders in the history of the game since integration. The ERA+ numbers don't make me comfortable, 34 LHP under the age of 23 have had a season like Kershaw is having and barely a HOF among them with quite a few pitchers who never reached the heights they reached at that young age again. While looking at the pitchers and those who were strike out artists likeKershaw it is even more uncomfortable viewing. Is Kershaw the next Kazmir , Sudden Sam McDowell, Herb Score, or god forbid Oliver Perez? I hope not, I hope he writes his own chapter and does not follow the path of anyone on the list. I hope for more, I hope that is not a false hope.

Face it, the Dodgers had baserunners against Carpenter and Wainwright but these are two of the best RHP in the NL right now. The bullpen imploded against a now potent Cardinal offense with the addition of DeRosa and Holliday to the lineup.

I can't really talk about Billingsley's game. I turned it on in bottom of the sixth so all the waxing about his brilliant five innings meant nothing to me as I saw him fail to finish the sixth in a fiasco of an inning. Not exactly the way to go about silencing the critics.

I'd also like Tripon to quit showing tweets from the idiots. If I wanted to know what the idiots were tweeting I'd follow them.

We like to see the big picture here but in the short picture the scribes from hell have been telling us we need an "ace", we need to upgrade our bullpen, and the first two games of this road trip only gave these scribes all sorts of ammunition for a big trade.

Over the next two games it would be nice if we came back with a statement of our own. Kershaw and Kuroda can show the doubters that they can compete against the tough Cardinals, and the offense needs to remember how to drive in a run. Two games into this road trip this is starting to smell like the awful road trip in August last year when the Dodgers forget how hit with runners in scoring position. Let us stop the carnage now so we don't start comparing this road trip to that road trip from hell. It is alot to ask of a 21 year old to be a stopper, but we didn't ask any less of Fernando in 1981.

Around the Yankee Universe: Old-Timer's Day edition

Ed Valentine — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 11:00:27 -0000

Since Sunday was Old-Timer's Day at Yankee Stadium -- and since no one can do an Old-Timer's event the way the Yankees can -- today's 'Around the Yankee Universe' is dedicated to Sunday's festivities.

The Yankees are, in fact, the only team that still holds an Old-Timer's Day celebration. The participants, as always, enjoyed it. Not everyone, though, seems enamored with the event.

Here is some of what was written and said about Old-Timer's Day.

From NBC Sports.

It might be time to put this Old Timer's Day thing on the shelf for a couple years until guys like Jeter and Mariano and O'Neill are old and gray and haven't been heard from in 10 years. Then you celebrate them and everyone's happy and it's a great time for all. Or do it every 5 years. But do the Yanks really need to do this every year?

If you continue to have these ceremonies where the greats (and some non-greats) all trot out, the oversaturation factor kicks in. Within the last 12 months, the Yanks have now had four similar celebrations - All-Star Game, final game at Old Yankee Stadium, opening of New Yankee Stadium, Old Timer's Day - where the team honors its past. Seriously, we get it. The Yankees are the greatest franchise ever. You had us at the 183rd time you told us.

MSNBC's Keith Olbermann, a diehard baseball fan, enjoyed the event.

the 63rd Annual Yankees' OTD remains one of the highlights of the year, and with a new fan hero, no less. Don Zimmer, who once vowed never again to wear a Yankee uniform even at events such as these, reversed his decision this year, and even with the likes of Yogi Berra, Reggie Jackson, and Whitey Ford in attendance and in fine health, Zim did no worse than the fourth loudest roar - and might've topped them all.

Zimmer, incidentally, enjoyed putting on the pinstripes one more time.

"Coming back here and seeing your friends, it's special," said Zimmer, who was surprised with a kiss on the cheek from Andy Pettitte as he spoke just outside the clubhouse. "All the guys, it's a very special day."

Mike Mussina, a new old-timer enjoyed the day. And yes, he is still insisting he is content with his retirement, despite winning 20 games a season ago.

"I'm enjoying it. I really am," said Mussina, who retired last year at 39 after becoming the oldest pitcher to win 20 games for the first time. "People tell me, 'Well, you're going to have to find something to do and you're going to get bored with it.' Well, maybe someday I will.

"But right now, with two boys under 11 years old, there's a lot of stuff I've got to do so I'm really good with being retired."

Kimberly Jones of YES was busy doing several on-field interviews, but also took time to blog about the day. She took special note of the reaction of Detroit's Justin Verlander and other Tigers.

Not only does he (Verlander) have fantastic stuff, he gets it. Verlander stood on the top step of the visiting dugout and watched the Old Timer's introductions. "Amazing," he said. Standing beside him was 20-year-old teammate Rick Porcello, the pride of Seton Hall Prep. And, of course, Jim Leyland was on the top step of the dugout the whole time. Leyland clapped heartily for Zimmer, his best friend, and for Yogi, his childhood hero. The Tigers were well-represented in the dugout at a time when a lot of players could have been hanging in the clubhouse.

Anthony McCarron noted that A.J. Burnett made sure to get an autograph from Dwight Gooden.

"He was always one of my favorites," Burnett said. Asked what he said to Gooden, Burnett joked, "Can I please have your autograph, sir? I just told him I’ve always been a huge fan and I had something I wanted him to sign from the old days.

"I just collect stuff from strikeout pitchers," Burnett added. "I’ve got a bunch of 3,000 strikeout photos, Nolan Ryan stuff, Gooden. (Bob) Gibson’s one I haven’t gotten yet."

Personally, I love Old-Timer's Day. I could do without the Old-Timer's game, which is a ridiculous affair. The Yankees, though, have the richest history in all of baseball and they should celebrate it. I can't imagine doing away with it.

Poll

The Yankees are the only major league team that currently hosts an annual Old-Timer's Day? Should they continue the tradition?

Yes, leave it alone

621 votes

No, it's boring

4 votes

Yes, but only every 5 years

34 votes

Yes, but without the silly Old-Timer's Game?

43 votes

702 votes | Poll has closed

Around the Yankee Universe: Phil's the man

Ed Valentine — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 12:35:47 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada, left, comes out to the mound to talk with pitcher Phil Hughes during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers Friday, July 17, 2009 at Yankee Stadium.

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I figured I would wake up to this today. After Phil Hughes' utterly dominant two-inning, six-strikeout performance last night at least one columnist is speculating the New York Yankees are stretching him out for a return to the starting rotation.

Manager Joe Girardi said no.

"That had nothing to do with tonight," Girardi said after the game, shaking his head at the suggestion he might have been stretching Hughes out a bit. "Looking at their lineup and the hitters he was facing ... we felt it was best to stay with Hughes at that point."

Hughes has a 0.86 ERA as a reliever and has not allowed a run in 15.2 innings over 12 appearances. I have little doubt that, stretched out a bit, Hughes could be an effective starter. And, that he will be long-term.

But, for now, why mess with what he is doing? Besides, looking at the current Yankee bullpen who else is going to do what Hughes doing right now?

Here is what A.J. Burnett had to say after watching what Hughes did in relief of him last night.

"He's in the spot where he needs to be right now. He's locked in," Burnett said. "Give him the ball right now, man. I watched him from in here, and it was a joke. He threw everything where he wanted to."

Here are some other stories making news around the Yankee Universe.

Detroit rookie pitcher Rick Porcello loves the new Yankee Stadium.

"The coolest thing is there are a lot of similarities between the old stadium and this one. You look at certain parts of the ballpark, and it looks a lot like the old stadium. Then you've got the amenities of a new stadium, like the big video board out there in center. You get the old-stadium feel with all the benefits of the new stadium. I like the balance of it."

Take that, Kevin Millar!

Mike Mussina will appear at Old-Timers Day Sunday. He says he is very comfortable with his decision to leave the game.

"I'm doing nothing," Mussina said on March 10, grinning. "And when I walked through the weight room, I knew why I'm doing nothing. I feel good being retired."

It's too bad Moose doesn't have an itch for a Pedro-Martinez like late-season return. The Yanks could use him.

Notre Dame will face Army in 2010 in the first football game at the new Stadium.
Jason Giambi bought his old Yankee Stadium locker for $50,000. As for as I'm concerned the Yankees didn't get nearly enough from the Giambino. I think maybe $118 million would have been the right price.

-- Check out 'Bless you Boys' for the Tigers' viewpoint on last night's game.

Graph of the Day - 2003 Yankee Pitching Staff

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:14:08 -0000

In 2003 the Yankees starting rotation was loaded and garnered this cover for the 2003 SI baseball preview issue.

Here is the 2003 WAR values for the staff on the cover, plus David Wells:

Name	WAR
Mike Mussina	6.3
David Wells	4.6
Roger Clemens	4.1
Andy Pettitte	3.4
Jose Contreras	1.9
Jeff Weaver	-0.3

Even though David was left off the cover, he was the second best pitcher for the Yankees that year. Here is the lifetime WAR values for the 6 starters along with a reference line for average and replacement level Hall of Famers.

The career trajectories indicate two Hall of Famers, two borderline Hall of Famers and two okay major leaguers.

WAR, FIP, and Andy Pettite's Hall of Fame Worthiness (and a bit on Mike Mussina, too)

devil_fingers — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 16:32:25 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

-13? You have got to be kidding me!

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In a recent blog entry, Rob "Sweetspot" Neyer, spurred by an email from a reader, discussed Andy Pettitte's chances for being elected to the Hall of Fame. Neyer understandably writes to his audience -- discussing issues such as Pettitte's win-loss record, his postseason play, voters perhaps having problems with Pettitte's admission of PED use, lack of awards, "gut feelings" and so on. Still, I was surprised that Neyer, a guy whose sabermetric savviness has lead many of his readers to other ways of thinking about baseball and numbers, didn't at least mention Sean "CHONE" "Rally" Smith's recent posting of his Historical Pitching Wins Above Replacement (1953-), an excellent companion to his earlier posting of the same numbers for position players 1955-. Given some of my own recent posts about projected pitching wins above replacement (WAR), why don't we use the same methods to look at historical issues?

First of all, you should really check out Rally's new historical pitching pages, they are quite cool, as is his site in general. I really can't believe stuff like this is free. I'm a bit jealous, because I had wanted to do my own pitching WAR thing for a while, as if that was ever going to happen (to that extent)?

But why not do it an a smaller scale, anyway? After all, there are many different ways of judging the value of pitcher performance, such as I discuss here and here. I took some of what I liked best about those methods and applied them to this seasons pitching projections in this series. So to look at Pettitte, I'll do the same basic thing. In short, I use tools such as FIP, PythagenPat winning %, separate replacement levels for the AL and NL, Patriot's park factors, adjusting for the way the pitcher influences the run environment and more. I won't burden you with all the details again -- you can find them by clicking on some of the previous links to earlier posts of mine.

This differs from Rally's methods, but this should not be taken as as an implicit or explicit criticism of Rally's or anyone else's way of valuing pitching performance. It's simply a different way of doing it. One can debate these things, of course, but just oon face value the differences can simply be seen as varying perspectives (no, I'm not endorsing total relativism here, professor). I'm don't know what Rally does step-by-step, but he briefly discusses his methods here. Some differences between what he does on his pages and what I'm doing here is that he uses RA rather than FIP, but accounts for the "Fielding" portion of run prevention by adjusting for the defense behind the pitcher, instead of using something like FIP. He also figures pitcher fielding into WAR, which is very cool. I know that he adjusts replacement level for AL and NL, but I'm not sure how he does it exactly -- I just use different win%'s. Again, I'm not here to say one or the other is better, simply to "do it myself" and see where I end up.

Quick note: for ease of access, I generated the data (FIP, IP, etc.) using the freely available Baseball Databank data imported into MySQL (thanks, Colin!). So some of my numbers may differ from Rally's or "official" statistics (this may also due to the different ways of calculating FIP, if you compare my numbers to FanGraphs or THT). The differences shouldn't be too significant, though. Also, Pettitte does have some brief relief appearances here and there that I wasn't able to sort out in my database. I don't think they're so significant as to skew the numbers significantly for my purposes, though.

So here's Andy Pettitte's regular season numbers.

Andy Pettitte, Pitching Wins Above Replacement, 1995-2008
Year	Team	IP	GS	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
1995	NYA	175.0	26	4.13	.545	30.6	2.9
1996	NYA	221.0	34	4.24	.564	43.0	4.0
1997	NYA	240.3	35	3.08	.653	68.1	7.0
1998	NYA	216.3	32	4.42	.513	30.9	2.9
1999	NYA	191.7	31	4.8	.492	23.3	2.1
2000	NYA	204.7	32	4.38	.543	35.3	3.3
2001	NYA	200.7	31	3.16	.638	53.7	5.6
2002	NYA	134.7	22	3.07	.652	38.0	4.0
2003	NYA	208.3	33	3.49	.608	49.5	5.0
2004	HOU	83.0	15	3.54	.590	16.6	1.7
2005	HOU	222.3	33	3.14	.634	54.4	5.9
2006	HOU	214.3	35	4.2	.534	30.9	3.0
2007	NYA	215.3	34	4.02	.561	41.2	4.1
2008	NYA	204.0	33	3.81	.559	38.5	3.9
Total		2731.6	426			554.0	55.6

For a guy who always seemed to be "on the fence" with Yankees fans in his first run in New York (cf. the references to "Good Andy" and "Bad Andy"), that's not too shabby at all. I suppose someone might point out that Pettitte was at his "worst" during the "championship" years of 1998-2000, while having his best seasons in the "off" years of 1997 and 2001, and thus had an "unclutch" career, but, well, I assume such people probably don't read my stuff anyway (I'm not worried, my millions of fans worldwide make me feel just great!). Rally's page has Pettitte at 45.3 WAR through 2008. 10 wins difference is significant or not depending on how you look at it. I don't know enough about how Rally figures in fielding (aside from the pitcher's own fielding numbers -- Pettitte is at -13 runs over about 13 seasons, so slightly below average). FIP, of course, is supposed to eliminate that . I'd say we're in the same ballpark (har har), but 10 wins would make a difference in how you see Pettitte's Hall of Game case. And, as you know, Cooperstown's gatekeepers take WAR and whatnot very seriously when voting someone in, or not.

Is 55 enough to "get in" to a truly merit-based Hall of Fame? Well, we haven't considered postseason impact. I'm sure sure how to do it fairly, although it seems it should "count" in some way. This and other issues about WAR and the Hall of Fame are helpfully discussed in this Book Blog thread. But for now, we'll stick just with regular season stuff. In that Book Blog post, Tango takes four pitchers of roughly the same generation as Pettitte (maybe a bit older), and gives their WAR according to Rally:

+70 Schilling
+67 Glavine
+65 Brown
+65 Smoltz

These guys, other than maybe Smoltz and Glavine are considered borderline by most "regular" writers, at least that's my impression from what I've read. So if these guys are borderline with 65-70 WAR, even if they get in, Pettitte seems like a longshot even at my 55 WAR figure, although he's still working on it and might get to 60. Add in being on memorable teams... hmmm... still seems hard to say he should get in. And I'm speaking for myself, there. And no, I don't believe in the "if player x, let's call him J. Rice, no, that's too obvious, let's call him Jim R., is in, then [other player] should get in" arguments. Rock deserves to be in the hall whether Jim Rice got voted or not.

So the answer is... I dunno. It isn't as "evidential," but Neyer might be on to something when he writes

Essentially, your gut's telling you that Pettitte doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame because we think of the Hall of Fame as a place for great players, and the stark truth is that Pettitte has rarely been great.... Pettitte's a better candidate than I thought, but I don't believe I could vote for him because I don't believe he's done enough great things.

Neyer is perhaps touching on another issue that is important to "greatness discussions" (apart from the baseball Hall of Fame and all of its accompanying silliness): peak value. That's something I'll just leave aside for future discussion.

In conclusion, let's take a look at my WAR figures for a sometimes teammate of Pettitte who is mentioned as another potential Hall of Famer.

Mike Mussina, Wins Above Replacement, 1991-2008
Year	Team	IP	GS	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
1991	BAL	87.7	12	3.60	.546	15.4	1.6
1992	BAL	241	32	3.29	.581	50.8	5.6
1993	BAL	167.7	25	4.11	.527	26.4	2.6
1994	BAL	176.3	24	4.30	.555	32.6	3.1
1995	BAL	221.7	32	3.89	.590	48.8	4.8
1996	BAL	243.3	36	4.21	.573	49.3	4.6
1997	BAL	224.7	33	3.61	.594	50.3	5.0
1998	BAL	206.3	29	3.62	.595	46.3	4.6
1999	BAL	203.3	31	3.38	.643	55.5	5.4
2000	BAL	237.7	34	3.67	.610	57.0	5.5
2001	NYA	228.7	34	3.05	.651	64.4	6.7
2002	NYA	215.7	33	3.81	.564	41.8	4.2
2003	NYA	214.7	31	3.23	.639	57.8	6.0
2004	NYA	164.7	27	4.13	.541	28.1	2.7
2005	NYA	179.7	30	4.11	.521	27.1	2.7
2006	NYA	197.3	32	3.58	.597	44.8	4.5
2007	NYA	152	28	4.16	.532	24.6	2.4
2008	NYA	200.3	34	3.43	.603	46.7	4.8
Totals	3562.8	537				767.6	77.0

Um, yeah, that's a nice career. My career total for Mussina is quite close to Rally's, which is 74.8. If I wanted to take more time, I'd make little graphs, but this "short second bloggy post of the week" is more like the Full Monty already. This looks like a Hall of Fame career to me, and he didn't need that final 20-win season to justify it. So there's a guy fit for the Hall. Pettitte's not there yet, at least by this measure. But that's more than half of the fun: the arguments.

O's History: The Opening Day Starters

SC — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 07:39:43 -0000

More photos » by Richard Drew - AP

Jeremy Guthrie will start his second Opening Day game for the Orioles in 2009. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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When Jeremy Guthrie takes the hill on April 6 against the Yankees, he'll be making his second consecutive Opening Day start for the Orioles. Here's a look back at everyone who has thrown the first ball for the Birds, from 1956-present (1954 and 1955 are mysteries to me).

1956: Bill "The Big Show" Wight

In '56, Wight was a journeyman, 34-year old lefty. He wound up going 9-12 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (97 ERA+) for Baltimore. The Birds went 69-85 that season, a big part of that poor record being unreliable pitching. Connie Johnson was the team's best starter, but just about everyone that suited up as an O's pitcher got to start at some point.

1957: Hal Brown

Brown was nicknamed "Skinny," with a listed weight of 180 pounds at 6'2", which wasn't really that wildly uncommon, but he carried it really thin, particularly in his chest and abdomen. Brown went 7-8, 3.90/1.13 (92 ERA+) in 150 innings.

1958: Connie Johnson

Big guy for the time at 6'4", which is still pretty big. Connie went 6-9, 3.88/1.25 (92 ERA+), and it wound up being his final season at age 35.

1959: Jack Harshman

John Elvin "Jack" Harshman had (1) a cool name and (2) a horrible 1959 season. He was just 31, but it was his second-to-last year of Major League ball. After an 0-6 start with the Orioles (6.85/1.82, 55 ERA+), Harshman was sent to Boston for Billy Hoeft, who would have a great season in '61 in the O's bullpen. Hoeft had started the '59 season with Detroit, but was traded to Boston on May 2. On June 15, the Hoeft-for-Harshman exchange went down. On July 30, the Red Sox waived Harshman after he managed to put up a 6.57 ERA for Boston. Harshman was then claimed by the Indians, and in 66 innings with the Tribe, he posted a 2.59 ERA. Third team was a charm in '59 for Jack Harshman.

1960: Jerry Walker

Walker, just 21 at the time, had had a very nice season with the Orioles in '59, going 11-10 with a 2.92 ERA (130 ERA+) in 182 innings. The kid got the nod in '60, which was the first season of the end of his playing days. He was out of the league after his age 25 season in 1964. After the '60 season, the O's traded him to Cleveland for Dicks Hall and Williams.

1961: Milt Pappas

Had a nice '61 (13-9, 3.04/1.19) and won 110 games as an Oriole before the famous trade with the Reds that netted us Frank Robinson. His 110 wins as an Oriole places him seventh all time (1954-present) for the Birds.

1962: Billy Hoeft

Posted a 2.02 ERA mostly as a reliever in '61 (he made 12 starts), and got the Opening Day start in '62. He made just three more starts the entire rest of the season, and had a crummy year with an 80 ERA+ (111-point drop from the prior season). He was part of a package sent to the Giants for John Orsino, Stu Miller and Mike McCormick after the season.

1963: Steve Barber

Ah, what coulda been. Barber made the '63 All-Star team, and went 20-13 (2.75/1.33, 125). All things considered it was probably his best season, beating out '65 because he threw 40 more innings in '63.

1964: Pappas

1965-66: Barber

I hear Steve's arm is just a little sore, but getting better every day. He'll be back out there any day now.

1967: Dave McNally

In his fifth season as a regular for the O's, 24-year old lefty McNally got his first Opening Day start. It wouldn't be his last. '67 also happened to be by far McNally's worst year: 7-7, 119 IP, 70 ERA+. Just dismal all around. The collapse of the pitching staff, of course, is the reason that the '66 World Champions turned it around to go 76-85 the next year, which was a big reason Hank Bauer was replaced by Earl Weaver in '68.

1968: Tom Phoebus

His 15-15 record is one thing, but he put up a 2.62 ERA in '68. 2.62! Wow! Trouble is the league ERA -- THE LEAGUE ERA -- was 2.95 that season, the legendary summer of 31-win Denny McLain and other nasty pitching feats. The league come around and fixed that mess pretty fast. Phoebus only had a few more years before his early retirement at 30.

1969-71: McNally

McNally won 20, 24 and 21 games these three seasons, but he wasn't really that amazing, putting up ERA+ marks of 112, 113 and 116. Solid, yes, but McNally was around the top 15 for MVP votes every year and finished fourth, second and fourth in Cy Young balloting. Jim Perry's '71 Cy Young was a flub -- the award should have gone to either Jim Palmer (we'll get to him) or Sam McDowell, probably, but hey, Perry won 24 games and the Twins won the West.

1972: Pat Dobson

Dobson, 30, won 20 games for the '71 O's, and is probably best known now as a trivia answer. Despite going 16-18 in '72, he was just as good as he was in '71. The team was just a lot worse.

1973: McNally

Good to see you again, Dave.

1974-77: Jim Palmer

Jim Palmer was the ultimate pretty-boy athlete. Unnaturally handsome with clear blue eyes and a square, smiling face, he was also highly intelligent and articulate. In his articulate way he whined about the Cy Young voting every time he didn't win it, feuded with his manager, and pulled a face whenever teammates misplayed a ball behind him. He was sort of the exact opposite of Don Zimmer, who is ugly as boiled sin but solid, authentic, tough, and lovable.

-- Bill James

Jim Palmer is without question the greatest pitcher in Orioles history and one of the best of all-time. He was an anchor every single year, a workhorse, and a star.

1978: Mike Flanagan

Flanagan is fifth all-time in wins as an Oriole (141), but his big Opening Day debut stunk and so did his season. Flanny was chased after 2 2/3 innings (6 H, 4 ER) and while he did go 19-15, he also did so because of run support, as he put up an 87 ERA+ for the season.

1979-80: Palmer

1981: Steve Stone

A year following Stone's fluky 25-win season and genuinely undeserved Cy Young award (Mike Norris of Oakland was way better than Stoney and won 22 games himself), he started Opening Day for the Birds. His 1980 season was the result of throwing an insane amount of curveballs, which shredded his arm. The 1981 season was his last. Years later, Cubs players would be total babies and chase him out of the Cubbie broadcast booth, which was a rotten shame.

1982-83: Dennis Martinez

"El Presidente" won 245 games over his 23-year career but was really a late bloomer. He was decent at best as an Oriole, and blossomed with the Expos starting in 1987, when he was 32 years old. He stayed a front-line starter until he was 40 years old, when time and injuries started catching up with him. He pitched until 1998.

1984: Scott McGregor

McGregor was 30, coming off an 18-win season, and the obvious choice for the World Champion Orioles as Opening Day starter. Sadly he started falling apart in this very season, throwing about 65 less innings than the year before and watching his ERA+ dip from 125 to 98. He never had another good season, though he ate up 200 innings in both '85 and '86. He retired after a four-game 1988 season, having never thrown a pro pitch for anyone but the Orioles.

1985: Storm Davis

In the tradition of guys who just had a good year, got to start Opening Day, and then stunk comes 23-year old Storm Davis. Storm battled injuries and had an 89 ERA+, one year after a 124 and 14 wins. He got a career rebirth in 1989, which was all smoke and mirrors for a great A's team. He won 19 games but really was pretty damn bad. He wound up in Baltimore again in '92, and was finished after '94.

1986: Flanagan

1987-88: Mike Boddicker

Boddicker emerged big in 1982, was a key part of the '83 run even though he got hurt during the season, and then sort of flamed out. After two disappointing seasons in 85-86, he got to start two Opening Days for a couple of lousy teams. In '88 he got traded to Boston, where he contributed to the failed Red Sox pennant chase, pitching some of the best baseball of his life. Boston wound up getting swept in the ALCS against Oakland.

1989: Dave Schmidt

Yeah, they get kind of ugly around this time. Schmidt was a non-descript, solid reliever for years, then came to Baltimore and the O's tried to turn him into a starter at age 30. Schmidt went 10-13 with a dreadful 66 ERA+. That's about as lucky as you can get pitching that badly. He was granted free agency in November 1989.

1990: Bob Milacki

Milacki was another of the Why Not? O's that benefited from a ton of luck, going 14-12 as a very average starter in '89. His lack of actual talent caught up with him in '90. He went 5-8 with an 86 ERA+ in '90.

1991: Jeff Ballard

Just awful. Ballard somehow went 18-8 with a 110 ERA+ in '89, despite striking out 62 and walking 57 in 215 innings. Do you know how hard that is? Ballard's 18 wins in '89 are a more amazing accomplishment than anything Jim Palmer ever did. Seriously.

1992-93: Rick Sutcliffe

In all honesty, Sutcliffe was old (36 and 37 in these two seasons), clearly past his prime, and really hadn't been any good since 1987. But he marks a return to Opening Day Name Respectability after the Schmidt-Milacki-Ballard years. There's something to be said for having a washed-up former Cy Young winner going out there to throw the first pitch rather than some never-gonna-be.

1994-96: Mike Mussina

Mussina was the team's best pitcher in '92 and after a sophomore slump in '93 (when Ben McDonald was the team's best pitcher), he went on a run for the O's not seen since the heyday of Jim Palmer. Moose was the man. We can all say it now.

1997: Jimmy Key

Don't have a thing in the world against Jimmy Key. Not a single solitary thing. He spent his entire 15-year career in the AL East, mostly with Toronto, and also helped the Yankees win the Series in '96. He was a damn good pitcher who never had a truly bad season over his career, though his injury-plagued '95 wasn't good to be sure. Still, he made only five starts, so I count that more as a missed year than anything. Key won 186 games in his career, threw about 2600 innings, and had a career ERA+ of 122. He was a hell of a pitcher.

1998-2000: Mussina

And then...he was gone.

Hello darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly creeping
Left its seeds while I was sleeping
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence

It got fugly.

2001: Pat Hentgen

Had you forgotten Pat Hentgen: Oriole? Hentgen won the 1996 Cy Young with Toronto, then had one more good season and fell off a cliff. But he got lucky and won 15 games in 2000 with the Cardinals, so the Orioles signed him. After $10 million and three seasons, the Orioles had gotten a grand total of 245 innings of work out of Hentgen. Fantastic.

2002: Scott Erickson

Veteran remnant from the contending days who 20 games for the 1991 World Champion Twins when he was but 23 years old. He'd never have a season that good ever again, though he had some solid years. The problem came as the Orioles paid Erickson like he was one of the best pitchers in the league, and he was not, even when he wasn't terrible. In 2002, he was terrible. Still, I liked him, and I rooted for him during fruitless comeback attempts with the Rangers, Mets, Yankees and Dodgers.

2003: Rodrigo Lopez

Won 14 games in 2002, a nice rookie season. Was absolutely horrible in 2003.

2004: Sidney Ponson

The Orioles traded Ponson to the Giants during the 2003 stretch run. When he became a free agent they brought him back. This ranks among the top five f-ups in franchise history.

2005-06: Lopez

What I like to now refer to as "The Camden Chat Era" begins with two cruddy Roddy Lopez seasons.

2007: Erik Bedard

Wound up being Eazy E's final season in Baltimore (FOR NOW!), and he made it a good one: 221 Ks in 182 IP, 13-5, really one of the best pitchers on the planet. It's almost easy to forget already, but GOD he was nasty in '07.

2008-09: Jeremy Guthrie

And here we are with Guts.

Multiple Opening Day Starts:

Jim Palmer and Mike Mussina, 6
Dave McNally, 5
Steve Barber and Rodrigo Lopez, 3
Mile Pappas, Mike Flanagan, Dennis Martinez, Mike Boddicker and Rick Sutcliffe, 2