SB Nation - Luis Vizcaino

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

View full size photo »

Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Ten Lessons Jim Hendry Needs To Learn From The 2009 Season

Al — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Example of a player Jim Hendry should not sign to an overpriced, multiyear contract.

Browse more photos »

I suppose this post could have waited till next week, but once again we are faced with more than 48 hours between games -- for the last time in 2009 -- and so I thought I'd start some discussion this morning with these things that I think were done poorly by Cubs GM Jim Hendry since the end of the 2008 season.

Hendry got a three-year contract extension (through the 2012 season) after last year's successful regular season, with the hope that 2009 would be even better. It didn't work out that way; Hendry had about as bad an offseason last year as any GM in recent memory, but with new ownership poised to take over, it isn't the right time to blow everything up and start over. Hendry will be given at least one more year to get things back on the track we thought the Cubs were on during their two-year run as NL Central champions in 2007 and 2008.

Some of the problems with the 2009 Cubs were not Hendry's fault and many of them were beyond his control. It's not Hendry's fault that Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder four weeks into the season and missed a total of 75 games (through yesterday). A-Ram produced above his usual level (.906 OPS, compared to his career level of .847) and I think we all agree that the Cubs missed his production in the two months he was out from mid-May to mid-July, not to mention that he wasn't at full strength on his return. To have produced the way he did after the All-Star break -- without complaining -- is a credit to Ramirez's work ethic and ability. It's not Hendry's fault that Alfonso Soriano played most of the year injured, though he perhaps could have insisted harder that Soriano have arthroscopic surgery in June, and maybe he'd have been ready in September. It's not Hendry's fault that all the Opening Day rotation starters spent time on the disabled list, forcing the Cubs to have 21 starts made by guys (Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija) whose performance can best be called "uneven". (The Cubs were 9-12 in those 21 games.)

Credit where credit is due: give Jim credit for recognizing that Randy Wells could help the team as a starter, though I don't think anyone could have guessed he'd be as good as he has been. Credit for giving Koyie Hill the backup catcher job; he's been very good in that role. And credit for getting John Grabow and Gorzelanny for, essentially, nothing; Grabow will likely be retained as a key part of the 2010 bullpen and Gorzelanny, though his performance has been up and down, does have talent and will be in the mix for the 2010 rotation.

With that in mind, below the fold you'll find ten ideas Hendry must internalize and go by as he builds a roster for 2010. (Not necessarily in priority order.)

1. Stop fixing "problems" that do not exist. I think this is one we can all agree on; the troubles with the 2009 Cubs began with the decision made at the organizational meetings last fall that "we're not lefthanded enough", a mantra particularly of Lou Piniella's, due to the Dodgers' RHP-centric pitching staff in the 2008 NLDS. The Cubs didn't lose that series because of a lack of LH batters, but since Lou (and the rest of the staff) thought that was the reason, they went out of their way to identify a "lefthanded, middle-of-the-order bat" that they could insert behind Derrek Lee and ahead of Ramirez. We are all familiar with the expensive disaster that produced so I won't rehash it here. I caution Hendry about this because they are about to do the same thing -- fix a nonexistent problem. "We need a speedy leadoff man", goes the managerial mantra. Well, no, Lou, you don't. A leadoff man's primary job is to get on base. You already have someone who can lead off and do that -- Kosuke Fukudome, who ranks 8th in the NL in walks, despite having almost 100 fewer plate appearances than the leader (Albert Pujols). The Cubs are 22-13 with Fukudome leading off this year (that's a 101-win pace for a full season). The last time Hendry went after this type of player, he traded three useful minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. Jim -- do not get sucked into this trap again.

2. Stop bidding against yourself for players. The first argument against this, you might think, is "Jason Marquis", but Marquis did what he was asked to do -- if the Cubs had kept him this year and he had produced the way he did in Colorado, the Cubs would have gotten fine 4th or 5th starter value for the $7 million a year average per year over the life of Marquis' contract. True, Hendry could have likely had Marquis for less, since no one else had expressed interest at the time. And you can't make the argument "Alfonso Soriano" about this, either, because Soriano had been offered six-plus years by the Phillies and seven by the Angels; the Cubs were determined at the time to make a statement in the free agent market. Soriano was the top free agent after 2006, and yes, the Cubs overpaid to get him. He may still be healthy and productive enough to be worth the deal, at least for the next 2-3 years. (Heaven help the Cubs in years 7 and 8, though.) No, what I'm talking about is paying $30 million for three years' worth of the iffy Milton Bradley when absolutely no other team was even after Bradley, much less offering three years. Or giving a two-year contract to Aaron Miles for any amount of money, when we now know there was at least one option (Andres Blanco) right in the Cubs' own farm system who could have done a better job for the league minimum. Advice to Jim: when you're thinking about doing this, don't. Just don't.

3. Stop giving out contracts that are longer than they need to be. Related to the last point, there was no need to give Marquis a three-year deal; two plus a mutual option would have likely done it, and then if the Cubs really did want to deal him last year, they could have arranged for the other team to pick up the option (if that team wanted him badly enough) or simply decline the option and let him go to free agency. This is particularly true in the case of Marquis; the return for him (Luis Vizcaino) was worthless, because the Cubs wound up dumping him and eating the contract. The same thing applies to the Miles and Bradley deals.

4. Stop trading for guys you think are good because you liked them five years ago, or are fond of their college coach. You don't have to guess who I'm talking about here; his name is Aaron Heilman. (And several years ago, his name was Michael Barrett.) It's great for a GM to be loyal to his players, and Hendry is someone a lot of MLB players want to play for, for this very reason. But any Mets fan could have told Hendry that Heilman had lost whatever command he had last year -- you should have heard the booing for Heilman when he came in at Citi Field, louder than I think I've ever heard for any returning former player -- and though Heilman has been better the last six weeks, he still was not worth losing Felix Pie (Pie, though he went to Baltimore, essentially was part of this deal because Garrett Olson, who was acquired for Pie, was part of the deal to the Mariners for Heilman). And really, Jim, isn't it time to stop the Notre Dame-Wrigley Express? As far as I can tell, there are four active major leaguers who went to ND: Heilman, Samardzija, Craig Counsell and Brad Lidge. All of those guys have issues. Enough already.

5. Stop handing out one-year renewal deals to players like candy. Chad Gaudin didn't throw very well and had a noted off-field incident in 2008. He didn't figure to play a major role in the 2009 rotation or bullpen, yet the Cubs signed him to a $2 million deal in December to avoid arbitration. Then he stunk it up in spring training, forcing the Cubs to simply release him and eat the contract; the Padres and Yankees later got replacement-level production for the league minimum. The Cubs could have gotten this sort of production out of Justin Berg or Esmailin Caridad, as it turned out. Gaudin should have been non-tendered in December.

6. Don't waste half a year's roster spot on a Rule 5 pick that your manager isn't going to use. Maybe David Patton would have pitched better if Lou Piniella had actually used him more than once every five games. We'll never know, obviously, but Lou essentially wasted a roster spot by relegating Patton to pitching in blowouts or in long extra-inning games. The Cubs could have used an extra bench player -- since Aaron Miles was useless -- because Lou was working with what was for all practical purposes an 11-man pitching staff. Lou and Jim deserve equal blame for this one -- and I hate to say it, but BCB poster BLou was right about this one. At this point, maybe it's best for the Cubs to stay out of the Rule 5 draft for a while.

7. Do more careful evaluations of your prospects and young players to maximize their value, whether it be in the major league lineup or in trades. It's clear now that the entire organization was split on Felix Pie's progress. Two years ago, his trade value would have been a lot higher than "Garrett Olson", and of course, now it's probably far higher than that again. Hendry sold on Pie at the lowest possible point, and he and Lou together dragged down a former top prospect's trade value (they did the same with Rich Hill, who could have been dealt after the 2007 season for a pretty good return, although few would have suggested it after Hill put together such a good season). This is another reason why it's silly to have played Bobby Scales in left field for even one game. Scales is a great story and maybe he's a 25th guy on someone's roster next year -- but his trade value is close to zero. Jake Fox, on the other hand, might either be a useful spare part for the 2010 Cubs or might have some trade value, but scouts aren't going to see it if he sits on the bench, Lou. This is where a GM has to have some input with his manager, not simply let the manager dictate the roster. In general, GM's shouldn't be making out lineups -- but Hendry, in this case, could have let Lou know that Fox should have been playing (and Fox should have also been playing 3B from the day after A-Ram went down, too).

8. Don't automatically think that you have to sign expensive free agents to get better. Last offseason, rather than sign Milton Bradley, the Cubs could have approached the White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Dye could have been available by trade; at the time it appeared the White Sox were trying to dump contracts. In fact, I wrote about this possibility last November. Dye didn't have a great year, but he was at least as good as Bradley without the baggage, and with Dye having a $12 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the White Sox, he might be available for not too much money and years (see points 2 and 3). There may be other players available like this -- and, in fact, Hendry almost has to use this route to be able to move Bradley's contract. Magglio Ordonez is almost certain to be on the block, and though he had a terrible season, it's possible he could rebound and he's a lifetime .308/.389/.513 hitter in Wrigley Field (relatively small sample size of 90 PA). NOTE! Do not assume that because I mentioned Ordonez, he is the ONLY player I'd go after for such a deal. He's only one example. Another such player is Luke Scott, who would have looked pretty good in a Cubs uniform in 2009, and who is likely headed for a hefty raise in arbitration. Maybe the Cubs can do that if they can trade Bradley elsewhere. The point of all this to Jim Hendry is: get creative, the way you did when you pulled off the Nomar Garciaparra deal in 2004.

9. Get "good clubhouse guys". I mean, this should be a no-brainer. Any Cubs fan who's been around even for ten years knows that the 2003 Cubs, managed by a player's manager, Dusty Baker, succeeded in part because they had strong clubhouse leaders, Eric Karros and Damian Miller. Miller and Karros were sent packing before 2004, and the 2004 Cubs, despite having more talent and ability than the 2003 version, collapsed in the final week. The acrimony there was visible in public, with players calling the press box to bitch, along with some high-profile public trouble between the team and its broadcasters. I'm not saying those were the only reasons for the success or failure of those two teams, but they clearly did have some impact, particularly with a players' manager like Baker who pretty much lets the clubhouse run itself. If there are no strong player-leaders, such a clubhouse is an "inmates running the asylum" situation and the results are predictable. Similarly, the Cubs lost strong player-leaders Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood after 2008 and added one player who reportedly was not a good clubhouse presence. NOTE! I am NOT saying that the Cubs must go out and reacquire DeRosa and Wood. However, I am saying that I believe all successful teams have players like this in their clubhouse. Hendry needs to identify some such players who can both do this and be productive in the lineup, and acquire a couple of them. Without trying to ignite the stats debate again, I believe having guys like this does matter. (Of course, they should also be good players -- that goes without saying.)

10. Think outside the box. Jim Hendry did this when he managed to dump an unproductive Todd Hundley on the Dodgers and get back two useful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Karros, without whom the Cubs might not have won the division in 2003. He did it again in 2004 when he engineered the four-team trade that got Nomar to the North Side. He needs to be creative in his thinking again this year. Don't fall prey to the "this is what's wrong with us and we are going to go fix that no matter what it costs" thinking that helped ruin the 2009 Cubs. Be ahead of the curve; that's what helped the Cardinals do so well this year. Also, this could apply to the idea that Hendry might be able to find solutions just by looking in his own system for next year (say, Andres Blanco, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad) rather than scouring the waiver wire for someone else's discards (as he did this year with the Aaron's).

There may be more lessons than just these ten, but going by these simple precepts might help Jim Hendry build a 2010 Cubs team that will once again be the favorite to win the NL Central -- and this time, actually do it.

Pitcher Purgatory

afh4 — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:38:10 -0000

As always, click on the panels for larger images.

Happy Anniversary, James Loney

Eric Stephen — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 21:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

Whatever the cause of James Loney's struggles at home, its imperative for the Dodgers to explore all avenues in trying to rectify the situation.

Browse more photos »

The Dodgers won the first two games in San Francisco last week, but in the eight games since they have not won more than one in a row. Tonight, they get their chance against the Cubs, after winning the series opener thanks in large part to Russell Martin.

Martin last homered on July 26, and went 84 plate appearances in between home runs. That was his second-longest home run drought of the year, as he opened the year without a home run in 255 plate appearances.

Speaking of home run droughts, tonight is the one year anniversary of James Loney's last home run at Dodger Stadium. Since taking Luis Vizcaino of the Rockies deep, Loney has not done well at home:

James Loney: August 22, 2008 to Present
Split	G	PA	HR	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS
Home	74	298	0	.237/.305/.297	.602
Road	81	344	10	.312/.369/.455	.825

That's 74 games and 298 plate appearances at home without a home run from our first baseman. However, Loney has hit just fine on the road, so its not like he forgot how to hit. There's something about Dodger Stadium that is hindering Loney (batters eye, anyone?), and the sooner that is fixed the better Loney will be, and the better the team will be because of it.

This year, Loney has seven home runs, all on the road. The Dodger record for most home runs in a season, with none at home, is 11 by Willie Davis in 1969.

Randy Wolf, starting on the mound for the Dodgers tonight, has nine runs batted in this season, the most by a Dodger pitcher since Darren Dreifort in 1999. In all, there have been 22 pitchers in LA Dodger history to collect at least nine RBI, led by Don Drysdale's 19 in 1965. Drysdale, who hit seven home runs that year, was used as a pinch hitter 14 times.

Wolf leads the Dodgers in innings pitched this season, with 162.2. After he gets 22 more outs, he will pick up the first incentive clause in his contract, good for $500,000 once he hits 170 innings. Wolf, who has a base salary of $5 million this year, has a total of $3 million in incentives based on innings pitched, maxing out at 200 innings.

Randy Wells has been the best starting pitcher for the Cubs this season. The 26-year old rookie is 9-5 with a 3.01 ERA in 18 starts. He also leads the Cubs with a 3.69 FIP, and opposing batters have hit .256/.305/.355 against him this year. He has pitched a quality start in four of his last five outings.

*************

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies.

Get your guesses in for "Just A Bit Outside" here.

Game Time: 7:10pm

TV: KCAL

Baseball Reference Preview

There Is, Apparently, Life After The Cubs: Cubs vs. Rockies Preview, Saturday 8/8, 7:10 CT

Al — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 22:00:11 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Write your own caption.

Browse more photos »

The Jason Marquis trade was controversial at the time it was made. Many here disliked Marquis for providing fifth-starter performance for more than fifth-starter money. There's something to that, but especially last year, Marquis did as he was asked. The deal wound up being a bad one, in my opinion, because it was made for salary reasons (in part, to afford Milton Bradley's deal) and the player acquired -- Luis Vizcaino -- turned out to be useless and was released.

Marquis, who somehow always pitched well in Coors Field, has prospered there, making the All-Star team and keeping his ERA under 4.00. He's even pitched well after the All-Star break, something he has never done before in his career. His sinker works in Denver; this is something other breaking-ball pitchers have gone to Coors with and failed.

It's time to pay back Marquis -- and the Rockies -- for this deal.

Speaking of deals, will the Cubs acquire anyone via a waiver deal this month? Jim Hendry says "maybe":

"It's hard to say," general manager Jim Hendry said of whether the Cubs will be able to add another player. "We're not in the upper echelons, but our record's good enough where we don't get first cracks at some guys. We'll see. If we find something that makes us better, we'll try."

Right now, I don't see anyone out there who would be available by waiver deal -- and who wouldn't cost a lot in terms of players or money -- who could really help the Cubs. I don't want John Smoltz -- I think he's done -- and with Ted Lilly due to return in 10 days or so, the Cubs are going to be OK for starting pitching even with Carlos Zambrano going on the disabled list, given the apparent revival of Tom Gorzelanny. Fortunately, Z's DL move is retroactive to August 2, so he will be eligible to return on the 17th, and Lilly should be back by then as well.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Ryan Dempster Cubs	vs.	Jason Marquis Rockies

5-5	W-L	12-7
4.09	ERA	3.49
96	SO	68
48	BB	43
14	HR	10
vs. Col	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ryan Dempster	5-5	19	19	0	0	0	0	116.2	113	59	53	14	48	96	4.09	1.38

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	12-7	24	21	2	1	0	0	144.1	137	62	56	10	43	68	3.49	1.25

Jason Marquis... well, what can you say. He was the guy many here loved to hate, but he's been rejuvenated as a Rockie. He handcuffed the Cubs on April 15 at Wrigley Field and has a 3.79 ERA in nine starts at Coors Field this year. However, several Cubs used to light him up as a Cardinal -- maybe they can pick that up tonight. Derrek Lee (16-for-33, 2 doubles, 4 HR) and Aramis Ramirez (9-for-21, 2 HR) lead the hit parade.

Ryan Dempster threw very well in his last start last Sunday in Miami -- that's what we need from him tonight, the guy who pitched so well last year. He has not had much success in Coors Field -- a 15.23 ERA in seven appearances (three starts, 13 total IP), but most of that came from two horrific starts he made in 2001 and 2003, comprising six of those innings and 16 of the 22 earned runs allowed. Against players currently on the Rockies he's done much better -- a .211 BAA. Only Todd Helton has hit him well -- .389 (7-for-18) with 3 HR.

TV tonight is, for the third game in a row, cable-only, CSN Chicago and FSN Rocky Mountain. If you are outside of Bud's Idiotic Blackout Zones, you should be able to see the game on the MLB Network. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Rockies site Purple Row.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 8:15 pm, 9:15 pm and 10 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:16:16 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron and Jody Gerut celebrate the Brewers' win over the Dodgers Wednesday.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while working on a poem.

Will Prince Fielder be suspended today? Disciplinary action for Tuesday's incident is expected to be announced today, and I've heard anything from no suspension to ten games suggested. I guess we'll find out. Meanwhile, Ken Macha was on damage control yesterday, attempting to explain to reporters some of the misconceptions involved and make sure people were aware of the root cause.

How much of the blame for overblowing this incident belongs to Anthony Witrado? Despite admitting earlier this season to being a Dodger fan and a Manny Ramirez fan, plus the fact that he wasn't actually present to witness what happened, Witrado appeared on SportsCenter yesterday and buried both Fielder and the Brewer organization. Brewers Daily, who has had some personal interaction with Witrado in the past, is calling for his firing. It's a shame that, in an era where so many hardworking and talented journalists are losing their jobs, Witrado still has one.

Are the Brewers getting ready to swap someone out in the bullpen? Buried at the bottom of Adam McCalvy's story on Carlos Villanueva was this note:

The Brewers are expected to promote newly signed reliever Jesus Colome from Triple-A Nashville as early as Friday. Colome, released by the Nationals last month and scooped up by the Brewers, pitched two more scoreless innings on Tuesday to preserve his perfect ERA. He struck out 11 batters in seven innings over his first four appearances for Nashville.

One would have to assume R.J. Swindle will be the one to depart, again. Swindle will probably be back in September, but might not get another chance to pitch significant innings this season, or as a Brewer.

Another day, another note on the ineptitude of Jason Kendall: This time it comes from The Daily Drink, where Christian Schneider argues that Kendall is no longer a major league player. As of this writing, Kendall is 2-for his last 27 (.080/.140/.080 over that span), and his OPS has dropped to .584.

Is Ryan Braun an underrated defender? He hasn't looked great in the outfield the last few days, but Baseball Digest Daily ranks him as the fifth best NL left fielder, defensively. I think you can make a solid case that he should be playing in right, not left.

In the minors:

Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff takes a look at AAA roster composition across baseball, and finds that the Brewers have one of the youngest squads, with an average age of 26.4.
Baseball America listed Roque Mercedes as an honorable mention in their list of the top ten prospects traded at the deadline.

On Power Rankings and other stuff:

Beyond the Box Score dropped the Brewers two spots to #24 in their Power Rankings.
MLB FanHouse moved the Brewers up one spot to #19.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham listed the Brewers among their five losers at the trade deadline.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed reliever Roy Corcoran.
A's: Signed Brett Tomko to a minor league deal.
Cubs: Released relievers B.J. Ryan and Jason Waddell.
Mets: Jonathan Niese will undergo surgery to repair a torn hamstring tendon and miss the rest of the season.
Nationals: Placed Austin Kearns on the DL with a thumb contusion.
Red Sox: Signed Paul Byrd to a minor league deal.
Royals: Designated Ryan Freel for assignment.
Yankees: Designated infielder Cody Ransom for assignment and signed Russ Ortiz to a minor league deal.

I had a couple of Twitter-based links this morning, but Twitter appears to be down so I'll post them here and maybe they'll work later:

With the win last night, Cool Standings has the Brewers' playoff chances back up to 7.7%.
Jon Heyman is on vacation in Wisconsin this week, so if you see him...I don't know, do whatever it is you do when you see Jon Heyman.

Happy birthday today to Luis Vizcaino, who appeared in 224 games as a Brewer between 2002 and 2004 and turns 35 today.

Drink up.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:40:04 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

Mat Gamel, seen here climbing the tarp, is unlikely to be traded.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while moving around to the right side.

Still waiting for the Brewers to make a move for a frontline starting pitcher? Sounds like you'll be waiting for a while. Doug Melvin says it would be almost impossible to trade Mat Gamel or Alcides Escobar, the Brewers' two most valuable prospects. It seems unlikely the Brewers will be able to make a big splash in the market without dangling at least one of them.

Meanwhile, Mike Burns will take the mound tomorrow in place of Dave Bush, who was placed on the DL with microtearing at the base of his right triceps (Also noted in FanShot). Bush is expected to remain out through the All-Star Break, which should give us enough time to figure out what "microtearing" is.

Crews continue to work to repair flooding damage on the service level at Miller Park. Twins.com beat reporter Kelly Thesier reports the indoor batting cages and weight room are still out of service, and the furniture and carpet in the visitors' clubhouse had to be replaced. The link also has a quote from Ron Gardenhire and a joke from Doug Melvin.

The Brewers are not playing well at the moment, but there are still reasons for optimism. For one, interleague play is almost over. Secondly, projections and power rankings still seem to like the Crew: Beyond the Box Score's Poor Man's Projected Standings still have the Brewers winning the Central, and The National Post has the Brewers holding steady at #3 in their NL Power Rankings.

How valuable is J.J. Hardy's defense? He's hitting .218/.299/.336 in 2009, but Driveline Mechanics says his defense has been good enough to keep him at a league-average level. Hardy has been worth approximately 7.4 runs with the glove in 2009.

Here are today's minor league notes:

Eric Arnett will make his professional debut tonight for Helena, but don't blink or you might miss it. Arnett's Twitter says he'll go "a couple innings," and the Brewers have suggested they'll look to keep his workload down.
Manny Parra allowed just one run and threw 59 of his 93 pitches for strikes for Nashville last night. He walked two and struck out three.
Zach Braddock, #16 in our community prospect rankings, has been promoted to AA after striking out 40 and walking just 4 in 24.2 innings for Brevard County.

Most Brewer fans would say we've had plenty to complain about lately, but apparently it hasn't been enough for The Brew Town Beat, which has moved on to the topic of Chris Smith's unbent cap.

A relatively quiet day around the majors:

Indians: Designated Luis Vizcaino for assignment.
Reds: Placed Wilkin Castillo on the DL with a torn labrum.

Here's today's "Jamie Moyer is old" update: Moyer made his major league debut in 1986, the same year Braves starter Tommy Hanson was born. Tommy Hanson hit a batter last night, meaning pitcher's born in Moyer's rookie year have now delivered 100 HBP's.

There's fan friendly, and then there's Padres assistant GM Paul DePodesta, who went pick by pick breaking down rounds 16-50 of the Padres' 2008 draft.

Oh, and Ryan Braun wants you to recycle.

Drink up.

A Tale Of Two Bullpens: Cubs Overcome 7-Run Deficit, Win Again In Walkoff 8-7 In 10 Innings

Al — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 01:03:37 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Ryan Theriot -- walkoff hero again!

Browse more photos »

This game had a little bit of everything we've seen this season:

A rain delay -- man, have we had a lot of rain this year.
The Cubs digging themselves a huge hole early, and also...
... the offense looking impotent for the first few innings. But:
The Cubs' bullpen turned in a good performance; a bit shaky at times, but ultimately five one-hit, no-run innings, and...
Cleveland's bullpen is as bad as advertised, blowing yet another game for their best starter, Cliff Lee.
And just to add a little intrigue, all three ex-Cubs on the Cleveland roster, Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Luis Vizcaino, played pivotal roles in the game.

And yet, it wasn't any of those things that finally won the game for the Cubs. It was Alfonso Soriano taking off for second base, somewhat ill-advisedly, we thought, but stealing his first base since June 5, and that set up Ryan Theriot's bouncer that took a weird bounce over Victor Martinez's glove into right field. Soriano raced around third and scored easily; it's the Cubs' third straight walkoff win, 8-7 over the Indians in ten innings -- just before another severe thunderstorm hit the north side of Chicago. (Thanks to BCB reader Clutch16 for posting the two extra overflow threads for this extra-long game.)

And in case you thought Derrek Lee's game-tying homer in the bottom of the ninth came close to us in the left field corner, that's about the closest we've ever gotten to a ball since we moved to that section in 2006. Jessica got her hand on it, but didn't want to fight the three twentysomething men who were diving all over themselves to get the ball. (We spotted one of them later taking a picture of the ball with his cellphone camera and sending it to several friends.)

Where do I begin? How about with Rich Harden's lack of command? He had a quiet first inning, then gave up a triple (which probably should have been an error to Reed Johnson, who had the ball in his glove), a walk, and a three-run homer to Luis Valbuena (who?). Another three-run homer followed a pair of walks in the second, this one by Martinez. The Tribe sent it out to 7-0 with another run in the fourth, and Harden was done an inning later, having slogged through 87 pitches in five innings.

Somewhere in the early innings -- the exact play, I can't remember -- former Cub Mark DeRosa chased a foul ball down the line and banged his knee into the bricks just beyond where the last padding is on the wall. He appeared seriously hurt at first but got up and stayed in the game, leaving on a double switch in the ninth. DeRosa was given a standing ovation on his first appearance in the batter's box in the first inning, and after that, was treated pretty much like any other opponent. This, I think, is fitting -- the ovation was an acknowledgement of his contributions here. For the day he was 1-for-3 with a strikeout and two walks.

When Harden left the game, my friend Phil said to me, "They're going to come back today like they did in that Colorado game you missed last year." And darned if he wasn't right. Before you give Phil too much credit, he also said that Jake Fox was going to hit three home runs today. Not so, Phil -- Fox went 0-for-4 with a walk, but handled three chances in the field flawlessly. I'd give Fox more starts at 3B vs. lefthanded pitching.

Meanwhile, the Cubs were mounting that comeback, starting with Johnson's solo homer, one of three Cubs dingers, continuing with D-Lee's first homer of the game, and then the big four-run rally off three Cleveland relievers in the eighth that made the score 7-6. And then...

... came Kerry Wood, the third of the returned ex-Cubs. Wood had blown only two saves before today, but his bigger problem this year has been an inability to retire hitters outside of Cleveland. Coming in, he had a 7.27 ERA on the road, and Lee's blast into our section tied the game, setting up Theriot's heroics...

... but only after Kevin Gregg gave us some excitement in the top of the tenth. It wasn't all his fault; Lee dropped a windblown foul popup, and Soriano charged ahead on a sinking line drive that he had in his glove and then dropped, so Gregg had to get five outs, essentially, in the inning, and he made it even more exciting when he hit Ben Francisco to load the bases. And then Kosuke Fukudome, who had come in on a double switch, nearly overran pinch-hitter Ryan Garko's line drive, but caught it with his glove high over his head.

I think I got everything, but maybe I haven't captured the way in which this Cubs team seems, at last, to have begun to carve out an identity for itself. Maybe it's appropriate, in some strange way, that this happened when two players so identified as Cubs in the last two playoff seasons came in wearing visiting uniforms. Today, perhaps, we move on... and continue winning.

Game 69: Cubs 8, Indians 7 (10 Innings)

afh4 — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 01:02:30 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Kerry Wood goes home, fails.

Browse more photos »

When a season is going down the toilet, every loss seems somehow bizarre. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not but today seemed pretty surreal. When the game entered a rain delay in the 8th inning, the Indians were leading 7-2 and Cliff Lee had just left after pitching a good game: his final line was 7.0 IP and 3 ER. The bullpen waited around for the rain to end and then entered and promptly exploded. Joe Smith allowed four runs to cross the plate (one inherited) but, entering the ninth the Indians still led 7-6 with Kerry Wood entering the game. Before the season there was a lot of ink (much of it my own) devoted to building an instant mythology for Kerry Wood and, frankly, it all looks wasted right now. Wood blew his third save of the season when he surrendered a game tying solo shot to Derek Lee.

From there, it seemed almost routine when the Indians lost in the tenth with Luis Vizcaino on the mound. The fact that Wood wasn't used in a couple of close and late situations over the last two games has raised some ruckus among fans and I suspect that the fact that Wood was only good for one inning today, despite having not pitched in five days, will cause the same kind of clamor. However, I'm not sure it should; maybe Wedge just isn't confident in Wood. Why should he be? His numbers are hardly any better than Greg Aquino's and Aquino just got cut.

As has been typical lately, the bullpen's seppuku act covered up some great offense. The Indians' touched up Rich Harden for 7 runs in five innings, including a 2-5 day for Jhonny Peralta (including an improable triple) and homeruns out of Martinez and Valbuena. In his last 53 plate appearances, Luis is showing serious signs of life with 4 doubles and 7 walks. He still has a lot of work to do but early returns are encouraging.

It's funny, five or so weeks ago it was obvious the season was over because of the bullpen; then, suddenly, that seemed not obvious. Now, that seems obvious again.