SB Nation - Chase Wright

The Brewers' Rule 5 Draft Eligible Players

TheJay — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:15:08 -0000

As noted in my FanPost of Sunday night, the deadline for filing major league and minor league reserve lists is fast approaching. Eligible players not added to the major league 40-man roster by November 20 can be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

What does it take to be eligible?

If 19 or older on the June 5th before he signed his first contract, a player is eligible for the fourth Rule 5 draft after signing (usually after four years in the minors).
If 18 or younger on the June 5th before he signed his first contract, a player is eligible for the fifth Rule 5 draft after signing (usually after five years in the minors).
Any player who is eligible for one Rule 5 draft is eligible for all subsequent Rule 5 drafts.

(see ESPN Transactions Primer , Baseball America Rule 5 Draft column, MLB Rules summaries)

You may recall some Brewers being added to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Omar Aguilar, Alexandre Periard, Mark Rogers, and Cody Scarpetta were the fantastic four. At the risk of undermining the above statements, Scarpetta actually became eligible for the draft through a little-known technicality: the Brewers voided his original contract because of an injury and later re-signed him, making him immediately eligible (link). That comes up probably once in a February blue moon.

I have attempted to make a comprehensive list of Brewers farmhands who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Obviously not all (or even most) of these players are realistic candidates to be selected. In addition, some of these guys may be minor league free agents. If you think I've made a mistake or missed someone, post a comment. Notable names are above the jump while you must click and scroll for the rest. Ages listed are for the 2010 season and levels listed are where the player spent the bulk of 2009:

Zach Braddock (22, LHP, A+/AA - one of the last draft-and-follow players, he did not sign until the spring of 2006 at the age of 18. This gives him one more year before becoming eligible.)
Lorenzo Cain (24, CF, AA)
Chris Cody (26, LHP, AA/AAA)
Nick Green (25, RHP, AA/AAA)
Taylor Green (23, 3B, AA - another draft-and-follow guy, brewerfan has him signing June 1, 2006. Since he did not turn 19 until November 2005, I think that puts him in the 18 and younger category and means he is not eligible until next offseason. Lorenzo Cain was in a similar situation last year.)
Dave Johnson (27, RHP, AAA)
Mike Jones (27, RHP, A+/AA/AAA - former #1 pick finally reached AAA, did not do well)
Brendan Katin (27, RF, AAA)
Mike Ramlow (24, LHP, Inj/A - yet another draft-and-follow, injured most of this season)
Amaury Rivas (24, RHP, A+)

The Brewers currently have 33 of 40 roster spots filled. I am not 100% sure of Green's exemption from the draft but the Brewers certainly have roster room if I'm wrong. We'll all find out together on Friday. Assuming Green does not need to be protected, I think only Lorenzo Cain and Amaury Rivas really need to be added to the roster. I don't think the other guys are tempting enough for any team to commit a 25-man roster spot in December. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the current talent and/or upside just aren't there.

As promised, the rest of the Rule 5 eligible farmhands.

Erick Almonte (32 in 2010, 1B, spent 2009 in AAA)
Patrick Arlis (29, C, AAA)
Mike Burns (31, RHP, AAA/MLB)
Chuck Caufield (26, LF/RF, AA)
Anderson de la Rosa (25, C, A+)
Ryan Delaughter (23, RHP, R - converted outfielder threw 5 innings in Arizona rookie ball.)
Chris Errecart (25, 1B, A+)
Jim Henderson (27, RHP, A/A+ - Canadian added veteran presence to low-minors bullpens.)
Robert Hinton (25, RHP, AA)
Mark Holliman (26, RHP, AA)
JR Hopf (27, C, AA)
Shane Justis (27, 2B, AA - was selected in minor league portion of last year's Rule 5 draft.)
Brandon Kintzler (25, RHP, AA - not sure how it works for these indy-league guys. Not sure it matters.)
Brock Kjeldgaard (24, 1B, A - converted pitcher known for power, strikeouts.)
Joe Koshansky (28, 1B, AAA)
Rafael Lluberes (25, LHP, A+)
Martin Maldonado (23, C, A+)
Michael McClendon (25, RHP, AA)
Sean McCraw (24, C, A)
Johnny Raburn (31, 2B/SS, AA/AAA)
Tike Redman (33, OF, AAA - former Pirate spent about as much time in Nashville as Jon Knott.)
Jose Romero (24, LHP, R - injury-marred career, presumably.)
Ivan Rusova (23, RHP, R - who? The Giants somehow drafted this Cuban in the in 26th round in 2005.)
Juan Sandoval (29, RHP, AA)
Adam Stern (30, OF, AA - O Canada!)
David Welch (27, LHP, AA - the lone representative from Australia.)

The following players would have been Rule 5 eligible but are already minor league free agents according to Brewerfan. A few names from the above list (i.e., Redman) probably belong down here, too:

Drew Anderson (29, LF, AA - he actually spent September 2006 in the majors.)
Chris Capuano (31, LHP, Inj/R)
Carlos Corporan (26, C, AAA - hitting only 1.000 in major league play.)
Ruben Flores (26, RHP, A - acquired for Bill Hall.)
Lindsay Gulin (33, LHP, AAA)
Ryan Houston (30, RHP, AAA)
Jon Knott (31, RF, AAA - spent about two weeks in a Nashville uniform.)
Wes Littleton (27, RHP, AA/AAA - best known for "saving" a 27-run game with the Rangers.)
Kevin Melillo (28, 1B/3B, AA)
Sam Narron (28, LHP, AAA)
Freddy Parejo (25, RF, AA)
Josh Wahpepah (25, RHP, AA)
Chase Wright (27, RHP, AAA - outrighted off 40-man roster on August 26.)

That's a lot of links about a bunch of guys no one will remember a few weeks from now. :)

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 14:50:46 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Milwaukee Brewers' Jason Kendall reacts after being hit by one of two pitches Wednesday.

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Some things to read while looking thinner.

The Brewers are changing things up a bit as they prepare for today's series finale with the Reds. As players were leaving the clubhouse last night, a sign was posted informing them of mandatory stretching on the field at 11:30 today. I'm as happy as anyone to see management trying to do something to improve the team's performance in day games, but "mandatory stretching" as a shakeup raises two questions in my mind:

Isn't stretching mandatory before pretty much every game? Wouldn't the entire roster be a mess of muscle pulls and tendon strains if it wasn't?
11:30 is only about ninety minutes before the start of today's game. If this stretching wasn't mandatory, are there players who wouldn't be there?

Meanwhile, the Brewers lost in extra innings for the second straight night last night. Ryan Braun says he took "a real bad route" to the fly ball that became the game winning double for Darnell McDonald. The loss dropped the Brewer playoff chances to .3%, according to CoolStandings.

Jason Kendall, meanwhile, gritted his way on base three times last night, drawing a walk and getting hit with two pitches. It was the 12th time in his career he's been hit twice in a game, and moved him into sole possession of fifth place on the all time list. Plunk Everyone has those tidbits and six more.

Felipe Lopez was limited to pinch hitting duties last night, and the classification of his injury has been modified a bit: Adam McCalvy is reporting Lopez actually injured a tendon that runs from his big toe through the arch of his right foot. He has not undergone an X-ray, and doesn't believe the injury is serious. Two notes on that:

Lopez is about a month away from becoming a free agent and possibly collecting a major paycheck, so even if this injury is worse than he's letting on, he'll most likely try to play through it and finish the season.
With that said, the injury didn't seem to hinder him that much when he was running to first after his ground out last night.

The Brewers made a minor roster move yesterday, removing Chase Wright from the 40-man roster. That likely means Wright will not be a September call up, but if frees up a 40 man spot for the Brewers to call up someone who isn't on the roster at the moment, like Corey Patterson (or, although this is a long shot, a guy like Jonathan Lucroy or Brett Lawrie).

Speaking of Lawrie, he was left off of the Midwest League's postseason All Star Team, along with all of his teammates. Instead, Angels prospect Alexi Amarista was chosen at second base. Amarista is hitting .313/.384/.461 for Cedar Rapids this season.

Brewer fans got the opportunity to talk prospects yesterday with Brewer Amateur Scouting Director Bruce Seid, and the transcript is up here. There's a fair amount of filler in there to skim around, but also notes on Nick Bucci, Scooter Gennett, Eric Arnett and Michael Fiers.

Mitch Stetter has had most of the last two weeks off, which gave him time to sit down with Adam McCalvy to tell the story of how he almost lost his leg. Interesting stuff.

The Bucky Channel took a look at the list of six Brewer veterans placed on trade waivers this week, and of all of them, he's hoping the Brewers don't trade Felipe Lopez. To me it seems like the only one that could be dealt is Braden Looper, as his 2010 option means a team could feasibly pick him up for the rest of this year and all of next. The rest of them would be one month rentals, and it's hard to get fair value for that.

Around baseball:

Angels: Designated pitcher Shane Loux for assignment.
Marlins: Placed Nick Johnson on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Mets: Oliver Perez will undergo knee surgery this week and miss the rest of the season.
Pirates: Placed Jeff Karstens on the DL with a lower back issue.
Red Sox: Released Brad Penny at his request.
Rockies: Designated outfielder Matt Murton for assignment.

The Brewers aren't the only team struggling in day games this season. The Rays are having a similar issue, and R.J. Anderson of DRaysBay takes on the theory that the struggles have been caused by young players staying out too late.

If Mike Cameron won't be back next season, and it's pretty likely he won't, then the Brewers need to keep looking at options in center field. Jorge Says No! noticed that Coco Crisp wants the Royals to pick up his $8 million option for next season, but it seems unlikely at that price.

Big League Stew has an interesting story today on John Danks, the White Sox reliever who has struggled at times this season with numbness in his fingers. Danks quit chewing tobacco, and the issue went away. Perhaps Jason Kendall and Bill Hall should be taking notes. Or maybe Major League Baseball should.

If you were impressed by Kendall's 2 HBP performance last night, prepare to be blown away by this one: On this day in 1975, Craig Kusick was plunked three times by Bill Travers as the Twins beat the Brewers 1-0 in eleven innings. Bert Blyleven pitched an eleven inning shutout for the Twins. On this day in 1982, Rickey Henderson went 0-for-1 with three walks and stole four bases, setting a new single season record at 122, but the Brewers beat the A's anyway, 5-4.

Happy birthday today to 2004-2005 Brewer Trent Durrington, who turns 34, former Brewer pitching coach Mike Maddux, who turns 48, and Marshall Edwards, who appeared in 160 games as a Brewer between 1981 and 1983 and turns 57.

Oh, and if you've got nothing else going on this weekend, you could always dress like a zombie and roam the streets in Oshkosh.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 14:39:34 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Mike Cameron is safe at home off a Jason Kendall single as Wil Nieves cannot get the tag in the seventh inning Thursday.

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Some things to read while I spend all day playing Bookworm.

Dreams really do come true, at least for The Bucky Channell, as the Brewers will open play today without both Bill Hall and Jeff Suppan on the active roster. Hall was optioned to AAA to get some consistent at bats to work on his swing, and Sheffield's House is reporting he was later traded to the Toppers' Pizza Softball Team. Hernan Iribarren will be called up before tonight's game to take Hall's place on the roster.

Suppan, meanwhile, is on the DL with a strained oblique. The Brewers haven't made a corresponding move to fill his roster spot, but Doug Melvin says he doesn't expect to fill it via trade. Chase Wright, who could have been a candidate to make a spot start on Saturday, started for Nashville last night, so he's likely out of the equation. Unless I'm mistaken, Chris Cody is scheduled to pitch for the Sounds tonight, and could also be a candidate.

The downfall of Jeff Suppan and Bill Hall, combined with the lost season of Chris Capuano and the disappointing year by J.J. Hardy have led View From Bernie's Chalet to wonder if the four Brewers made a mistake by appearing on "The Young and the Restless" in 2007.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are left clinging to a .500 record, heading off on the dreaded west coast road trip. You may want to try to catch an afternoon nap today, if you can: The Brewers play at 9:05 five of the next six days.

Once every few days, especially when Mike Cameron isn't hitting well, someone in the game thread asks how Tony Gwynn Jr. is doing in San Diego. Before you ask, here you go: Gwynn got off to a hot start for the Padres, but Quevedo at the Buffet reports that he's hitting just .240/.291/.312 with 21 strikeouts and one stolen base since June 21.

Around the minors:

The Brewers appear to have reached a deal to lure 2009 draft pick D'Vontrey Richardson away from playing football at Florida State. Richardson was a fifth round pick, believed to be seeking a bonus well above slot money.
The Timber Rattlers are struggling a bit lately, but Brett Christopherson of the Appleton Post-Crescent thinks the Brewers could help the team by promoting two prospects from Helena: BCB #9 prospect Jake Odorizzi and 2009 third round pick Josh Prince.

The Brewers dropped from 18th to 20th in Yahoo's Power Rankings.

Around the league:

Astros: Released Russ Ortiz.
Braves: Released reliever Jeff Bennett.
Cubs: Acquired John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates for pitchers Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio and a minor leaguer.
Dodgers: Acquired George Sherrill from the Orioles for two prospects.
Mets: Designated Elmer Dessens for assignment.
Rays: Claimed catcher Jose Lobaton off waivers from the Padres.
Royals: Acquired outfielder Josh Anderson from the Tigers for cash.

Russ Ortiz and Kevin Hart were the starting pitchers in yesterday's Cubs-Astros game, and as 6-4-2 notes, neither were on their respective teams' active roster by the end of the day.

It's the busiest day of the year for trade rumor peddlers and the like, and for one man, business is booming: Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks profiles Elliott James, the guy who photoshops the caps of their new teams onto traded players.

At Inside the Majors, former Blue Jays assistant GM Bart Given answers more reader questions about life in a front office. Today, we have questions on cash payments made as part of trades, using players on the DL as part of trades, and using text messages and email to negotiate deals.

Remember umpire Bill Hohn (and his mustache), and the issues the Brewers had with him a couple of weeks ago? He's back in the news today for fist-bumping Marlins catcher John Baker following Wednesday's game, where he ejected both Bobby Cox and Brian McCann. Can we just replace these guys with machines and get it over with?

This isn't one of the brightest days for "This Day in Brewer History:" On this day in 1990, the Brewers were the losing team as Nolan Ryan won his 300th game. And on this day in 1996, the Brewers traded Greg Vaughn to the Padres for Bryce Florie, Marc Newfield and Ron Villone. Vaughn went on to hit 50 home runs for the Padres in 1998. Newfield played two below average seasons as a Brewer and was done in the majors at 25. Villone pitched in 50 games for the Brewers in 1997, and Florie appeared in 32.

Oh, and take a moment today to consider the plight of unnamed sources.

Drink up.

Pirates Trade Eric Hinske to Yankees, Morgan and Burnett to Nats

Charlie — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:49:17 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Pirates traded Eric Hinske to the Yankees for two prospects today.

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The Pirates have traded Eric Hinske and cash to the Yankees for minor league pitcher Casey Erickson and minor league outfielder/catcher Eric Fryer. Garrett Jones will replace Hinske on the 25-man roster.

Erickson was mostly used as a starter last year and he pitched well, but he was too old for his level. He struggled in a few starts this year but took off upon being sent to Class A+ Tampa's bullpen, where he's struck out a batter per inning and posted a 1.10 ERA.

Fryer had a strong year in 2008 for West Virginia, back when the Power was a Brewers affiliate, then got shipped to New York for Chase Wright. He's been terrible so far this year and, at 23, needs to get moving to be a real prospect. This is only his second full year in pro ball, so I suppose it's possible he'll do that. Milwaukee scouts were supposedly furious when the Brewers traded him, but he hasn't done much since the deal. His solid 2008 numbers were propelled largely by a .335 batting average, and I'd best against him putting up a number like that again. He steals bases and is pretty athletic in a way that's unusual for a catcher. He looks like a pretty good buy-low player, but he is still 23 and is posting a .677 OPS at Class A+.

Both these players are fringe prospects, but then the Pirates really weren't giving up a lot. Hinske had only received 106 at bats for the Bucs. I like him a lot better than I like Jones, who's just a garden-variety AAA player, but if neither of them will ever play, the issue is moot. If either Erickson or Fryer make the big leagues, the Bucs come out ahead here.

The Pirates could also end up trading Nyjer Morgan to the Nats for outfielder Lastings Milledge today. As I implied a few days ago, I'd be very much on board with this deal. Morgan is a nice defensive outfielder but really has no offensive ability, and while Milledge is pretty likely to be a complete bust, he does have at least some chance of becoming a star.

UPDATE: The Post-Gazette reports that the final Morgan/Milledge deal also includes Joel Hanrahan coming to the Bucs and Sean Burnett going to the Nats. Hanrahan is an occasionally frustrating pitcher who was nonetheless very good last year and throws really hard. (Last time I saw him, he hit 97 repeatedly.) Burnett has pitched better than ever this year, but he still has just a 95:77 K:BB ratio in 160 big-league innings. Hanrahan has a 7.33 ERA this year, but has struck out more than twice as many batters as he walked. He also struck out 93 batters as a reliever for the Nats last year. This looks like a great sell-high, buy-low opportunity for the Pirates. I wouldn't bet on Burnett continuing to be successful. I'll take the hard-throwing guy who strikes people out. Even though I think Neal Huntington generally overvalues that type of reliever, I think he's got it right here.

UPDATE: The Morgan/Burnett deal is done. The Hinske trade didn't wow me, but I love the Morgan/Burnett deal. The Pirates are trading two fringy big leaguers at what could be the peak of their values for two players they couldn't have bought lower on. It's far from clear that Milledge or Hanrahan will contribute, but both have upside, especially Milledge, who PECOTA compared to Dwight Evans, Ellis Burks, Andre Dawson and Grady Sizemore before the season. Milledge is a much worse defensive outfielder than Morgan, and even I think it's a longshot that he'll become half of what Sizemore is or Dawson was, but I love that the Pirates are taking the chance. Morgan has become a great defensive outfielder, but that's really all there is to recommend him. And Burnett has posted dismal strikeout and walk numbers for about half a decade now; that he has an ERA around three right now owes to the Pirates' defense and plain luck. Hanrahan has struggled last year, but he was a horse last year, he strikes batters out, and he has very good stuff. He also has an incredible .451 batting average on balls in play this year, which basically means you can dismiss that high ERA, because luck and/or the Nats' defense has simply killed him. (Burnett's BABIP is an absurdly low .218.) Buy low, sell high. This is a really nice deal, in my opinion.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 13:56:41 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

6 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers player Mike Cameron stands on the edge dugout during baseball action in the ninth inning of the Tuesday, June 2, 2009 game in Miami as the Florida Marlins win 10-3. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

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Some things to read while building a pizza oven.

What's next for Manny Parra, who was awful last night and has lost three straight starts in ugly fashion? As of this writing, 78% of voters at the JS think Parra should be removed from the rotation. Quevedo at the Buffet has gone ahead and gotten Manny the extended weather forecast for Nashville and a Grand Ole Opry schedule.

If Parra is bumped from the rotation, Mike Burns (who threw four scoreless innings last night) and Seth McClung will likely be considered to fill in. Mark DiFelice might have been an option, but he'll be leaving the team this weekend to attend his grandmother's funeral.

One of the eleven hits given up by Parra last night was Dan Uggla's 100th home run, making him the quickest second baseman to 100 HR in major league history. Uggla, though, didn't want to make a big deal out of it.

How many Brewers belong on the All Star team? Dave Cameron of FanGraphs filled out an NL roster, and has two Brewers on his team: Ryan Braun and Mike Cameron. I'd be pretty surprised if Trevor Hoffman doesn't make the squad, and one could certainly make a case for Yovani Gallardo, too.

First, they need to get out of Florida, but this is nice too: Teams in first place on June 1 make the playoffs two thirds of the time. Of course, the 2007 Brewers were in first place on June 1, too.

I'm awash in minor league notes today:

Jeremy Jeffress, the Brewers' top pitching prospect, responded well to a demotion to Brevard County, allowing just two hits and no runs in seven innings last night.
Baseball America has a list of minor leaguers who attempt a disproportionately high number of stolen bases, and Alcides Escobar (21-for-27) shows up on it. We don't frequently mention speed as part of his game, but if Alcides could develop into a 30-40 SB guy in the majors, it would add a fair amount to his value.
Chris Cody was called up to Nashville to fill Mike Burns' roster spot; At The Old Ball Game has frame-by-frame pictures of his delivery. (Now there's also video.)
Rattler Radio has a preview of tomorrow's Timber Rattlers promotion: the "Salute to Cows." If you're headed to the park tomorrow for this one, you might see me there.
Nashville plays Iowa at noon today, and you can listen live here. Chase Wright is starting for the Sounds.

The Brewers continue to prepare for the draft next week, their first draft without Jack Zduriencik. The Capital Times talked with Doug Melvin about the draft and his apparent dislike for the system. Baseball Reference has their draft preview up.

Meanwhile, Prince Fielder is on the cover of 2K Sports' The Bigs 2, and sat down for an interview to mumble something indecipherable about it.

Around the league:

Nationals: Catcher Jesus Flores has a stress fracture in his shoulder and may miss the rest of the season.
Rangers: Placed Josh Hamilton on the DL with a groin strain that may require surgery.
Reds: Placed Edinson Volquez on the DL with elbow tendinitis.

Milton Bradley may be headed back to the DL as well. Bradley left last night's game with a leg injury.

Yesterday I mentioned the possibility that the Nationals were getting ready to make a coaching change. They made one, but not the one I expected, firing pitching coach Randy St. Claire. Acting GM Mike Rizzo said the move was made due to a difference in philosophy, but Craig Calcaterra of The Hardball Times says St. Claire's laid back nature probably made it easier to fire him.

If Randy Johnson wins his 300th game but no one comes to see it, does it make a sound? Johnson will get his first shot at 300 wins in Washington, and Umpbump wants to know how many fans will show up.

It's still early, but the NL Central is significantly better than a lot of experts predicted. Dayn Perry, though, still ranks it third behind the AL East and Central.

Are you a roster rule junkie? If you are, you should check out this edition of Quid Pro Quo over at Inside the Majors. It's written by Bart Given, former assistant GM of the Blue Jays.

Finally, here are a bunch of obscure former Brewer notes:

Elvis Andrus was hit by a pitch yesterday, making him just the second player named Elvis to get hit. Until yesterday, former Brewer Elvis Pena was the only one.
It looks like Kevin Mench's adventures in Japan are drawing to a close. I doubt he'll be invited back.
Teddy Higuera surprised me by making this list of players who have thrown nine innings with three hits or less in three consecutive starts, joining Roger Clemens, Bib Gibson, Sandy Koufax and John Tsitouris.

Oh, and happy birthday to Robert Machado, who caught 51 games for the 2002 Brewers and turns 36 today.

Drink up.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 14 May 2009 14:16:49 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Rickie Weeks straddles third after hitting a triple last night. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to find photographic evidence of Hardy's triple.

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Some things to read while stimulating the economy.

In just a few hours, the Brewers will take the field looking for their first sweep of the Marlins since 1999. The Brewers may have an added advantage today, as it sounds like some Marlins aren't sleeping well: FishStripes is reporting that at least two pairs of Marlins are rooming together on this trip, as the team is staying in the Pfister Hotel, rumored to be haunted, and they're scared of ghosts.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have something else to be scared of. J.J. Hardy left last night's game with "very little" vision in his left eye and numbness in his left hand. He was given medication for a migraine headache. A decision on his ability to play today probably won't come until close to game time.

Mat Gamel, meanwhile, is expected to make his debut today. Gamel came to Milwaukee yesterday and has been called up to the team (noted in FanShot). He'll take Brad Nelson's roster spot: Nelson was outrighted to Nashville, and has 72 hours to either accept the demotion or opt for free agency. I know Nelson has struggled and many have been calling for his demotion for some time now, but I hope this isn't the last time we'll see him in a Brewer uniform.

There was brief confusion last night about Nelson's status, as the common procedure in this case would be to designate him for assignment, then attempt to outright him once he had cleared waivers. The Brewers' decision to skip the first step and outright Nelson immediately would suggest that he was put on waivers days ago and has already cleared. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks says Nelson did nothing to earn a demotion.

As for Gamel, his short term role with the team will reportedly look a lot like Prince Fielder's 2005 role. Gamel will get some pinch hit at bats and spot appearances before DH'ing in interleague play, and is not expected to make many starts.

Mike Rivera probably shared a plane ride with Gamel. Rivera completed his rehab assignment in Nashville yesterday, and is expected to rejoin the team and start today. Carlos Corporan will return to AAA.

Major league history was made yesterday, as the very first home run was overturned by instant replay. However, it wasn't the home run in last night's Brewer game. Instead, it was a home run by Adam LaRoche, overturned about an hour earlier.

And, of course, each Trevor Hoffman save creates more history. The All Time Saves Leader picked up save #561 last night, his seventh as a Brewer, and Tom H. says there's still some gas in his 41-year-old tank.

The Brewers took advantage of an opportunity last night, but it was presented to them in the most unlikely way. Fish Bytes wants to know what's wrong with Ricky Nolasco after last night's two-out fourth inning rally, which went this way:

Mike Cameron grounded out.
J.J. Hardy lined out.
Corey Hart walked.
Jason Kendall walked.
Braden Looper singled.
Rickie Weeks singled.
Craig Counsell singled.
Ryan Braun walked.
Prince Fielder singled.
Mike Cameron walked.
J.J. Hardy struck out.

Obviously, there was some luck involved there, but any inning where a pitcher puts Jason Kendall, Braden Looper and Craig Counsell on base is cause for concern.

A Brewer win, Reds win and a Cardinal loss combined to form a three way tie atop the NL Central, with the Cubs just half a game back. Even before last night's game, Justin Inaz was projecting the Brewers as the expected NL Central Champions. They've also moved up from 15th to 8th in MLB FanHouse's Power Rankings.

Chase Wright picked up his second win in AAA yesterday but is still just 2-4, and entered yesterday's contest with an ERA over 5. At The Old Ball Game takes a look at Wright's starts individually, and they're not as bad as you might think, given his overall numbers.

Around the league:

Angels: Are reportedly close to signing reliever Rudy Seanez to a minor league deal.
Cardinals: Placed Ryan Ludwick on the DL with a strained hamstring.
Cubs: Ryan Dempster will not be suspended after throwing a pitch that nearly hit Ryan Braun in the head over the weekend.

Perhaps the hardest part of evaluating a 46-year-old pitcher is trying to decide when he's lost it: Jamie Moyer, who recently signed a two year contract, has posted an 8.15 ERA in his first seven starts, leading some to wonder if this is the end of the line for him.

Will anyone ever hit .400 again? Watching Jack Cust, of all people, led Joe Posnanski to take a look at some players who could feasibly do it, and some players who could have if they'd put the ball in play more.

Do the rules work both ways? Players are immediately ejected and eventually suspended for making contact with an umpire, so Craig Calcaterra of Circling the Bases would like to see umpire Paul Schrieber suspended for his unnecessary contact with Magglio Ordonez last night.

Baseball Digest Daily is all over the Twitter fad, and while mentioning it they linked to this list of MLB players who tweet. There are no current Brewers on the list, but Matt LaPorta is on it. Of course, if you Twitter, you should be following BCB.

Today is a Woot-off day, if you're looking for a present for your favorite blogger. If you'd like to get something for me instead, I've got my eye on this and these.

Oh, and the small-sample-size baseball world has a new elite power hitter: Willie Bloomquist.

Drink up.

Is Jeff Suppan a Lost Cause?

Jordan M — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 17:45:07 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

8 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Jeff Suppan throws against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Tuesday, April 7, 2009. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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In his two starts this year, Jeff Suppan has thrown 67 fastballs. Before reading ahead, do you care to take a guess as to how many times hitters have swung and missed those fastballs? Keep in mind that the league average whiff rate on a fastball is only about 6%, with a very good pitcher inducing swings and misses on about 10-12% of fastballs.

The answer to the question? It is zero. Every time a batter has decided to swing at a Jeff Suppan fastball, they have made contact with it. Even batters who played for the Giants. Batters have swung and missed 8 Jeff Suppan pitches this year-- a curveball, 3 sliders, and 4 changeups.

In his opening day start, Suppan averaged 86.93 miles per hour with his fastball. In Sunday's game, he averaged 87.21 miles per hour. Unsurprisingly, that is right in line with his last two years, his average was below 87 last season, and has been steadily decreasing since this speed data became available in 2002 (he averaged 89.6 mph with the Royals that year).

The break on the fastballs is nothing special anymore, either, and it is quite inconsistent. In these two games, we saw an average horizontal break of 8 inches toward a right-handed hiter and an average vertical break of 8 inches. I wish I had access to data from previous seasons, because it would be interesting to know what Suppan's break was like during the days of his prime-- even if they were propped up by great defenses, he still had some skills.

The general trend for Suppan in his first two years with the Brewers appeared to be of consistent, expected decline. He struck out fewer batters in each of the past two years and began walking more. As sad as the premise seems, we hoped to avoid total catastrophe and Suppan becoming totally unusable. I am not ready to declare that as of now, but his stuff is deteriorating to the point that he is going to have to rely exclusively on good control to stay above replacement level. And as we have seen so far this season, things are not looking good on the walk prevention front.

In total, Suppan's 8 swings and misses out of 140 total pitches is a 5.7% swinging strike rate. That is not good. Suppan no longer has the stuff to get by as a starter that is above replacement level while walking batters at a rate worse than the league average.

At this point, Suppan needs to get back to a 5:3 strikeout to walk ratio-caliber pitcher. If he is unable to do so, there are several options that are better than him. One of his advantages is his durability, and in the past, his control and stuff were better than replacement pitchers like DiFelice, Green, or Wright by a large enough margin that it made sense to continue to use him even when he was working through struggles. But now, we have a pitcher with stuff that does not induce swings and misses, and his control has been dreadful.

Now we introduce the alternative. Mark DiFelice's average fastball in 2008 was thrown harder than Jeff Suppan's in 2008 or 2009. Mark DiFelice is also capable of striking people out, not walking 3 batters with the bases loaded, and has yet to, in his career, give up 7 runs in 1 inning.

I am all for giving Suppan some time to work out his issues and see if he can regain his usual control. But at what point do you realize that Suppan carries no advantages over DiFelice or McClung? DiFelice, in the starting rotation, would predictably strike out more batters, walk fewer, and his stuff is not noticeably worse than Suppan's at this point (and it might well be better)-- which in general implies that he is not more "hittable" than Suppan. Is the advantage durability and stamina? What good do those do when Suppan has to be taken out after an average of 70 pitches due to pitching poorly? It has been pointed out that a starter who can pitch 170 innings with a 5 ERA talent has some value, and that is true, but if there are three other pitchers available who are capable of a sub-5 ERA talent, that value is almost entirely diminished by the abundance of the other type of pitcher-- if one gets hurt or becomes ineffective, the team can plug in another. That value comes in when the replacement pitchers are the freely available kind that put up 5.50 ERAs. The Brewers are not in this situation, having stockpiled DiFelice, Green, and McClung (Capuano and Wright could also enter into this group of pitchers).

DiFelice's cutter/slider has been dissected by Josh and other analysts before, so I will not get into it too much. It is around 81-82 miles per hour, and it averaged 81.8 in his appearance in last night's game. His hardest pitch of the night was 82.4 miles per hour. The only other pitch he threw last night was a changeup, and those two pitches were split almost 50/50. Mark is also capable of throwing a high-80s fastball, even if he does not feel the need to use it very often. He has used a curveball in the past, as well, though I do not see one in his data from last night. I would expect him to break out the full repitoire if he were to be used as a starter.

The point of the look at DiFelice is to illustrate that Suppan no longer has an advantage, as a pitcher, over DiFelice or other pitchers in stuff, as in break, movement, and velocity. If both showed up to try out for a baseball team today, a coach would start DiFelice-- the guy with the 87 mph fastball and the good cutter and change over Suppan, the guy with about 86, a decent curve and slider and not a whole lot of control. Think about it this way-- if Suppan suddenly learned to walk less than 2 per 9 and strike out more than 6 per nine, we would have a similar pitcher to Mark DiFelice. The only real difference right now in their repitoires is that Suppan throws his curveball and fastball more often than DiFelice does. DiFelice's stellar cutter/slider probably makes up for the difference.

I sometimes think there is this invisible tiering of starting pitchers-- the guys that throw really hard, the guys that throw hard, and the guys that throw normally. I usually put pitchers like Sabathia and Sheets in the top tier, Gallardo and Parra in the second tier, and then bunch pitchers like Bush, Looper, and Suppan in the last tier. That is no longer the case, Suppan has now fallen to a level well below even Bush and Looper, and those 2-3 miles per hour actually can have a very big impact on hittability, especially when Suppan has little control.

Suppan needs to get his control under control, and if he does not, the Brewers need to seriously consider inserting DiFelice into the rotation while Suppan attempts to remember how to throw strikes. I have not mentioned McClung much in this post, but he is capable as well. Suppan does have some value if he is able to regain his ability to throw strikes and basically reinvents himself as a pitcher, but he is going to have to become a pinpoint control man who walks almost nobody to stay in the rotation for the next two years of his contract. I am hesitant to draw too many conclusions from 2 games, but the trends are disturbing enough to continue looking at this issue and beginning to make plans for what will happen if he is unable to begin throwing strikes again.

If Suppan gets back his normal control and drops his BB/9 below 3 throughout the rest of the season, it would be a fine solution to keep him in the rotation, he would not be hurting the team. But if these control issues continue, the team needs to go into crisis management mode, and attempt to keep Suppan from hurting the team by throwing innings in which replacement pitchers would be a much better option. If Doug Melvin is on the same page as me here, I would think he will consider sending DiFelice down to AAA to stretch out while Suppan gets about 2 more starts to prove he has his control back. If he continues to walk batters, a temporary move to the bullpen or the disabled list might be the best course of action.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:04:52 -0000

Some things to read while leaving work early.

So, as you've probably noticed, 2009 is scheduled to be Rickie Weeks' third consecutive "breakout year." But would you take that news more seriously if it came from Peter Gammons? (h/t FanPost)

While most of the Brewer team projections this spring haven't been pretty, individual Brewers are getting positive attention all over the place today. On top of Gammons' mention of Rickie Weeks, Ken Rosenthal is picking Yovani Gallardo to win the NL Cy Young and But The Game Is On is listing Ryan Braun as an NL MVP candidate.

Speaking of Braun, it sounds like he's feeling pretty good after a couple of days back in big league camp and should be full speed for Opening Day.

The news is not as good for Craig Counsell, who has a torn meniscus in his right knee and may require surgery. He's considering trying to play through it this season, and the team is leaving it up to him. With that said, recovery from surgery would only take 2-3 weeks, so Counsell would be somewhat foolish to spend all season playing in pain to avoid missing the 6-8 appearances he'd miss recovering from surgery.

Trevor Hoffman's injury isn't very exciting for most people, but his rehab could be a pretty big deal for some, as Hoffman may make one or more rehab appearances for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. That would be one way to get the teams' new partnership started off on the right foot.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Vinny Rottino and Hernan Iribarren will return to Nashville for the 2009 season, but it doesn't sound like there's much room for them to play. (h/t FanShot)
Beyond The Box Score took a look at the TotalZone rankings of several shortstop prospects. Alcides Escobar has a five run lead on second place, and a 71 run lead on Mariner prospect Carlos Triunfel.
The JS Camp Report says Angel Salome should be recovered from his back injury in time to start the season at Nashville, and Jonathan Lucroy is expected to catch nearly every day in Huntsville.
Tom H. says Chase Wright, Nick Green, Sam Narron, Lindsay Gulin and Tim Dillard will start the season in the rotation in Nashville, with Chris Narveson pitching out of the bullpen. It remains to be seen what will happen when Chris Capuano is ready to start making starts.

Remember when the Brewers were an AL team? I'm sure Moose Haas, Chris Bosio, Bill Wegman and Teddy Higuera do, as they're all on Recondite Baseball's list of pitchers who started the most games without an official at bat.

Rankings/Projections/Predictions:

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog predicts the Brewers will finish third in the Central.
The Tenth Inning Stretch has the Brewers winning 75 games and finishing fourth behind, among others, the 86 win Pirates.
Baseball Musings ranks the Brewers fourth in the Central in Wins Above Replacement.
It Is About The Money, Stupid has Bodoglife's 2009 over-unders, which have the Brewers at 80.5 wins. Stop by later today for more over-under fun.
The Mudpuddle has the Brewers picked to finish fourth in the Central and the Cubs winning the World Series.

he will not make the team

unveiled their dollar menu

BoDogLife

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:06:39 -0000

Some things to read while turning a wine bottle into a terrarium.

Before the Brewers/Cubs game yesterday, Braden Looper pitched a simulated game and completed two innings despite being struck in the head by a line drive. (h/t FanShot) Looper is still on pace to be ready for Opening Day and could start a Cactus League game as soon as this weekend.

Mike Rivera is also ready for game action, and will get the start Wednesday when the Brewers travel to Tucson to take on the Rockies.

The sore intercostal muscle that pulled Ryan Braun out of Sunday's WBC game is still not believed to be serious, but Braun will undergo an MRI anyway, just to be sure.

Elsewhere, the Brewers sent a couple more pitchers down to minor league camp yesterday: R.J. Swindle and Chase Wright. It's a bit of a surprise move, as Swindle was expected to compete for the LOOGY spot in the bullpen and Wright had pitched well in camp. It's possible this means Lindsay Gulin is now in the running for that spot.

Some visual evidence of yesterday's game:

Bill Hall tells Corey Hart to talk to the hand.
Ken Macha congratulates Hart following his home run.
Prince Fielder with a headfirst slide into third.
Rickie Weeks has an impressive vertical leap...but not the baseball.

Speaking of Rickie Weeks, Miller Park Drunk has come to his defense following Rob Neyer and Bill James' assessment that the Brewers should shuffle their defensive lineup and move him out of the infield.

Cory Provus has a blog over at the Sports Bubbler. Today, in his first post, he discusses Corey Hart, Chris Duffy and Casey McGehee. Tomorrow: Brewers with first names starting with a different letter.

Speaking of McGehee, he's the subject of today's JS Spring Training profile.

On predictions, projections, etc:

Walkoff Walk is picking the Brewers to finish fourth in the Central, but predicting a monster season for Manny Parra.
Bleed Cubbie Blue predicts the Brewers will finish with a win total somewhere in the mid-80's, but finish second in the Central and miss the playoffs.
Baseball Reflections has the Brewers winning 80-85 games and finishing no better than second.

Stories from other camps:

Astros: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a one year, $1.5 million deal. They also may open the season with Jose Capellan in the rotation.
Marlins: Returned Rule 5 pick Zach Kroenke to the Yankees.
Mets: Will return Rule 5 pick Rocky Cherry to the Orioles. They also signed Junior Spivey to a minor league deal.

So, let's say you're managing the Atlanta Braves. You missed out on trading for Jake Peavy this winter and signed Derek Lowe instead. I understand you'd try to justify it, but do you really want to do it by citing six starts in the postseason and World Baseball Classic? There's roughly 112 issues with that analysis.

Speaking of the WBC, as injuries continue to decimate Team USA, there's an increasing chance manager Davey Johnson will forfeit the WBC. If that happens this may very well be the last World Baseball Classic, which would be a shame because it sounds like Cuban press conferences are hilarious.

Aside from being former Brewers, what do Kevin Barker, Mark Loretta and Russell Branyan all have in common? They're three of just seven players to receive an intentional walk during spring training.

Baseball Musings continues to project team offense for 2009. Today, the Astros check in at 4.46 runs per game, up from 4.42 last season.

Last week I posted a graph from Beyond the Box Score showing run expectancy by pitch location. The Baseball Analysts have taken it a step further and broken down run expectancy by location and pitch type and have also broken down home runs by pitch location.

You won't see any more all black maple bats in major league baseball this season, but you will see a black dot on existing maple bats. Larry Stone of the Seattle Times explains some of baseball's rule changes regarding bats.

Meanwhile, across town, The Seattle Post-Intelligencer is folding, effective immediately.

Oh, and no matter how bad the economy gets, you really shouldn't take a job with Lenny Dykstra.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 15:07:18 -0000

Some things to read while lining up in a scrimmage kick formation.

The Brewers had a short day in camp yesterday to get the players some rest before an intrasquad game today and the official Cactus League opener tomorrow. As noted in this FanShot, Braden Looper, Mark DiFelice, Sam Narron, Omar Aguilar, Chase Wright, Tim Dillard, Chris Narveson and R.J. Swindle are scheduled to pitch in the intrasquad game today, which is expected to go around five innings.

Now here's an intrasquad game I could get excited for: Sully Baseball compares the All-Time Home Grown and Acquired teams for the Brewers, and picks the Home Grown team, led by Robin Yount and Paul Molitor, to win the series.

Meanwhile, Jeff Suppan will start on Wednesday as part of a spring rotation that will go Suppan-Gallardo-Parra-Looper-Bush. This may or may not be the regular season alignment, and of course injuries could change it dramatically. If this is the rotation, though, Miller Park Drunk says the Brewers might as well forfeit Opening Day's Jeff Suppan-Tim Lincecum matchup.

Macha also let us in on his strategy regarding bullpen usage. He plans to remove pitchers while they're ahead, and let them try to battle their way back in from behind. There are worse philosophies, I suppose.

I would guess the tough part about being a spring training reporter is that you have to write everyday, even on days when nothing's going on. With that said, Adam McCalvy has a profile of Omar Aguilar, who he says has been impressive in camp. Aguilar worked out this offseason with Brian Fuentes, and reportedly told Fuentes not to come to Milwaukee, so Aguilar wouldn't have to steal his job.

Among more likely candidates for closer in 2009, Carlos Villanueva is one of FakeTeams' NL Sleepers for Saves.

Finally, speaking of closers: Trevor Hoffman took out a full page ad in the San Diego Union-Tribune to thank Padres fans for their support.

Elsewhere in camp, Cory Provus arrived yesterday to begin a crash-course on the team before his first broadcast Wednesday. The game will be broadcast on WTMJ and Brewers.com.

While Provus will be ready to go Wednesday, Bill Hall, Mat Gamel and Tony Gwynn will not. Gamel and Gwynn are still hampered by shoulder impingements, and of course Hall is still rehabbing his partially torn calf.

Corey Hart is the latest Brewer profiled in the JS spring training preview. Hart blames fatigue for his dramatic September collapse. That's fine, and I hope that really did motivate Hart to come to camp in great shape this season. With that said, the words "patience" and "discipline" don't show up a single time in the profile, which leads me to believe Corey still may not get it.

Is J.J. Hardy one of baseball's most underrated players? You could make a case for it. Beyond the Box Score has a graph comparing Hardy's value to that of 2008 AL MVP candidate Carlos Quentin. (h/t FanShots)

Down on the farm, Right Field Bleachers has an interview with 2008 draft pick Blake Billings, who is hoping to pitch for Wisconsin this season at just 19 years old. (also noted in FanPost)

Elsewhere on the farm, here are some of the former Brewers noted in Baseball America's Minor League Transactions:

Tony Graffanino signed a minor league deal with the Indians.
Scott Podsednik and Glendon Rusch both re-signed with the Rockies.
Ben Hendrickson signed with the Twins.

Some notes from other camps:

Cardinals: Todd Wellemeyer will not miss any spring training time despite being clipped by a crab on his throwing hand.
Nationals: Released Odalis Perez, who had not reported to spring training.
Orioles: Felix Pie is having visa issues and is still not in camp. He may get to Miami today.
Pirates: Signed Ruben Gotay to a minor league deal.

Over the last few months we've had a lot of new visitors to the site, and if you're one of them, welcome. If you're wanting to get involved and wondering how to use some of the tools we have here at BCB, click over to South Side Sox for more info. I've also added that link to the reference box in the sidebar on your left.

Oh, and if you're here, odds are you like Wisconsin sports, so you may be interested in Bucky's 5th Quarter, SBNation's new Badgers blog. I've added them to my reading list.

Finally, if you see Tim Kurkijian on TV today, odds are he's not wearing pants.

Drink up.